Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - Joe Biden's Re-Election Chances, Doug Schoen on Biden's Replacement , the Latest Border Stats, Hunter Biden Sues Fox News, & More

Episode Date: July 3, 2024

Tonight's rundown:  Hey BillOReilly.com Premium and Concierge Members, welcome to the No Spin News for Tuesday, July 2, 2024. Stand Up for Your Country. Talking Points Memo: Bill breaks down Joe Biden's actual re-election chances, if he chooses to defy his critics. Biden speaks out about the Supreme Court's decision of presidential immunity. Political Strategist Doug Schoen joins the No Spin News. How were the latest southern border numbers last month? Hunter Biden is suing Fox News. This Day in History: President James A. Garfield is shot. Final Thought: Bill's beach book recommendations. In Case You Missed It: Read Bill's latest column, God's Favored Nation. Take advantage of our Fourth of July sale, buy a Not Woke mug and get a Stand Up For Your Country mug for only $10! Order today. Election season is here! Now's the time to get a Premium or Concierge Membership to BillOReilly.com, the only place for honest news analysis. Preorder Bill's latest book, CONFRONTING THE PRESIDENTS, a No Spin assessment of every president from Washington to Biden. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey Bill O'Reilly here. Welcome to the No Spin News for Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024, stand up for your country. So new CNN poll out a few hours ago. You know, the polling, it takes a little time to catch up with the folks. But I think I'm going to read this one to you. Got some interesting things in it. 1,274 respondents.

Democrat 29, Republican 30, independent 40, fair. That's what we're looking for. First question, do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 24 if Biden is the nominee? Okay, better chance with Joe Biden, 25%. Better chance with anyone else in the Democratic Party, you know, of no. vote 75%. So it just goes along of what I've been telling you, and I'm going to get into that very specifically in a moment. Second question, if the election were held today, would you vote for? Trump, 49%, Biden 43, other four. Do not plan to vote for. I think that's underrepresented. I think

a lot of people are not going to vote. I could be wrong, but that's the impression I'm getting. And finally, is Joe Biden a vote for him positive, or is it a vote against Donald Trump? I love this question because this is right up my alley. I am voting for Joe Biden, the person, 37 percent, the Democrats. I am voting against Trump, 63%. And I, you know, come in. Everybody knows that. You know, some scribe said if Nikki Haley were the nominee over Trump, she would win in a landslide.

That's true. And I'm not disparaging Donald Trump, but he brings in high negatives. However, the Republican Party, the base want Donald Trump, not Nikki Haley. The vote showed that. That is our democracy. Point's memo, Biden's re-election chances, all right, fact-based. This separates me from almost everyone else in the journalistic community, as Al Sharpton would say. Okay, I'm going to walk through this very slowly so that people in Portland, Oregon can understand, cheap shot of

Portland, beautiful town, used to be anyway. All right, Joe Biden in 2020 got 81,284,000 votes, most of them anti-Trump votes. Donald Trump received 73 million more than any other Republican candidate ever, 224,000 votes. And Biden's tally was record-breaking for Democrats. Okay, my analysis that Donald Trump could lose between 10 and 15 percent in this. election. Why? Two reasons. Low turnout, I think people will stay home. And a lot of people don't like them. They're fed up, whatever it may be. So some people voted for me for enough with the credit trials, blah, blah, blah, whatever. So let's say 12% he loses. That puts him

about 67 million votes. Okay. Colossil amount of votes if he even loses 12% of his support from 20. Biden could lose 30% of his vote because he can't do the job. He's mentally diminished. So everyone knows that and I think 30% might put their country above Joe Biden. That would bring him down a 57 million votes. So Trump would win by 10 million. I believe that is a fair scenario as it stands on July 2nd. Real clear politics has the electoral vote count right now. Trump 219, Biden 198, toss up 121, 270 needed to win. But just today there was a St. Anselm's poll in New Hampshire that Biden had been running way ahead in the Granite State says Trump has overtaken him. So I think that by any fair measure,

the electoral vote situation in the so-called swing states will swing Trump's way. I put Trump at about 319 electoral votes right now, 100 more than real clear. And I don't think Biden, if he cracks 100 electoral votes, he's going to win California in New York. York and Illinois. So that'll get them up around a hundred. But I don't know. I can't, I can't see it. So the betting odds, the gangsters, the bookies, they have Trump at 55.5% to win, Biden at 23% to win. Okay, that's where the bookies are. Now, if you're vote on the presidential vote if you bet on the presidential race you're breaking a law but of course no one will prosecute or even look for you so this nate silver gets a lot of ink i don't have much

use for this guy um he is a pollster or i'm going to be respectful but he never impressed me as being particularly astute so he says quote today it's fundamentally a terrible idea to ask the public to make the guy they saw on the presidential debate until he's 86. One of the craziest asks in the history of American politics, and Trump likely wins close calls in the electoral college. That's the swing states, according to Mr. Silver. So he's basically saying, look, you're asking people to vote for a guy who's mentally diminished and everybody knows it. Now, why would anybody do that? Why would anybody put an incompetent president who's going to get worse above the good of the country?

Well, the first reason is they'll say, no, Trump's worse for the country, even if Biden is in a jar. But think about this. Biden is not running the government right now. There's nothing to do with the government. unelected, phantom people are running the government. Now, we gave you their names and everything, and what you do is go to bill o'Reilly.com, and you can see it.

I've done it three times now. Okay, it's his chief of staff, it's his counsel, it's his speechwriter. They're making the calls. And of course, Jill Biden is the most powerful person in the White House right now, because Jill will not give it up. Now, what I reported on Saturday is absolutely true.

The Democratic establishment wants Joe out. They've decided he cannot run. That's what I reported. And that's absolutely true. The only reason he isn't out yet is because Jill Biden tells him not to, and Joe Biden does everything that Jill Biden tells him to do. But let's get back to the voters. So I know some Biden voters, and I don't hector them.

That's not fair. I mean, vote your conscience. right? If you're a loyal American. But once in a while, a conversation will roll around to, and it's always Trump is worse, 100% across the board, always. But then I say, look, you are voting to put yourself and your family and this country in danger, actual danger, because you can look back at how Trump ran the country four years, and we weren't in wars, and we had low inflation, and he did get a Vax up and running fast, now you're putting a country in danger, actual danger, okay? And there's always silence on that. They never come back with any.

And the final reason is people don't want to admit a mistake. You know them. Maybe you're sitting next to one right now. They'll never admit they made a mistake, ever. That's a contagion in America now. Never make a mistake. And so they won't backtrack on it. But I'll tell you what, in my lifetime, I've never seen a more dangerous situation than what we have now in the November boat. Because Joe Biden cannot run this country. He's not going to make a comeback. He's going to get worse. And the progressive movement loves that because he and his aides push that progressive agenda all day long.

And that's a memo. Let's face it, the U.S. economy is under strike. national debt rising, trade war, shaking the markets, and meanwhile, China is dumping the dollar and stockpiling gold. That's why I protected my savings with physical gold and silver through the only dealer I trust, American Hartford Gold. And you can do this. Get precious metals delivered to your door or place in a tax advantage, gold IRA. They'll even help you roll over your existing IRA or 401k, tax and penalty-free. With billions and precious metals delivered thousands of five-star reviews and an A-plus from the Better Business Bureau, you can trust

American Hartford Gold as I do. Please call 866-326-55-7576 or text bill to 99-8899. Again, And that's 866-326-5576 or text bill to 998899. Hey, I'm Caitlin Becker, the host of the New York Postcast, and I've got exactly what you need to start your weekdays. Every morning I'll bring you the stories that matter, plus the news people actually talk about, the juicy details in the worlds of politics, business, pop culture, and everything in between. It's what you want from the New York Post wrapped up in one snappy show. Ask your smart speaker to play the NY Postcast podcast. Listen and subscribe on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, so Biden today gives remarks on extreme weather.

I wonder if he has a little board and a marker. I don't know. Is there a front coming in we should know about it? Then he goes to McLean, Virginia, right over the Potomac and raises money. That's all he does all day. He hasn't done anything this week so far for the people. Yesterday, after the Supreme Court ruling, it said, look, presidents have immunity when they make decisions while they're in office, because if you didn't have that immunity, you couldn't govern. You'd be sued every day, every hour on an hour, for something.

And that's essentially with the Supreme Court rule, okay? And now it goes back to the lower courts to find out if there are any guidelines about what's on the docket, on professional. professionally and what is personal. Okay? So that's where it is. So the far left didn't like it. That means Joe Biden didn't like it. So they parade Biden out Roll the tape. Today's Supreme Court decision Once again, it will depend on the character of the men and women who hold that presidency that are going to define the limits of the power of the presidency because the law will no longer do it. I know I will respect the limits of the presidential powers I have for.

for three and a half years. But any president, including Donald Trump, will now be free to ignore the law. And that's just propaganda. And a lot of people say, well, why do you even bother? Two reasons. The White House desperately trying to show he's a strong leader in charge.

So he read the prompter for five minutes. And all the press was there. And they want to ask him questions, he didn't answer any questions. And then to motivate the Trump haters even more. Okay, because that's all they got. We hate Trump. He's the devil. He's Hitler. He's this. He's that. That's it. That's all I have. Okay. Let's bring in a very astute political guy. His name is Doug Shone. You've seen him on this broadcast before.

He is the author of the book, just out this month, or June, I should say, The Politics of Life, My Road to the Middle of a hostile and adversarial world. Wow. I feel sorry for you reading a cover that book. Adversarial world. Now, I, of course, live in that world. And I guess Doug does. He joins us now from New York City. So I say that Biden will not be on the ballot in November,

and you say? I say, increasingly given the CNN poll and the rest of nature of the donors and today, Representative Lloyd Duggett of Texas being the first to call for his removal, I think it's a matter of time before he accepts the inevitable and steps down. So I agree with you, but he's going to fight like the Dickens bill to stay on the ticket. Well, Charles isn't going to like that, Charles Dickens, because he's hurting the country every day he's in there.

Now, the governors, the Democratic governors, have requested a call. I don't know how they can put that together. to discuss it with Joe because the governors know they're going to get killed in the individual states and they're going to say to Joe, look, it's not just about you, it's the democratic structure is going to collapse. The Senate will probably go Republican. The House is already there. And now in our individual states, we're going to lose the state houses. So there's this tsunami coming into Biden. But I don't even, if Biden takes the call, I don't even think he has a concentration should span to even hear that?

I think he will take the call. He will hear it, and he'll try to shut them out as he's shut everybody out. It will matter. It won't matter. I don't think it'll matter to him. Let's talk about the dragon lady,

Jill Biden. So you know I wrote killing Reagan, and I hope you read it. Because Nancy Reagan, far in away, in modern times, had more power than anybody when it came to the presidency because Ronald Reagan, particularly the end of his second term when he was going downhill mentally, depended 100% on her.

She was a gatekeeper. Nobody even got to see him unless she okayed it. I think Jill Biden is worse than Nancy Reagan and now has shut her husband down from all kinds of unpleasant intrusion. Now, you're a Democrat. Is that what you're here? I'm hearing the same thing. They have circled the wagons in the White House. They did it before the debate. They've done it more since the debate. And they're hoping to just isolate Joe Biden from all the critics, the tough conversations, in hopes that this will all blow over. I don't think it will, but that's what they're trying to. It can blow over. Well, they can try it all they want, but once you have the New York Times calling for him to get out and everybody else,

nobody's going to backtrack on that, Doug. Whoever's saying that he's got to get out, they're not going to say, oh, well, I meant a mistake, he should stay in. I agree. I agree. So the liberal media has turned against Biden. Almost everybody, by the way.

I don't know of any newspaper that said editorialized Joe must stay. Do you? No, I don't. And I don't know too many politicians on the Democratic side who privately aren't saying the same thing. Well, we haven't heard a word. out of Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leaders from New York. You won't. You won't hear it.

No, I know. He's, believe me, I got his number 20 years ago. Exactly. So, so anyway, where we find ourselves is when, not if. But the fundamental problem is who then goes into the convention in August and gets Biden's delegates. What's your bet? My bet in, if the Democrats are smart, they'll take it, is to have a true open process to let four or five people, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro,

Governor Whitmer, Amy Klobuchar, all compete. I think it would be great for the party to have an open, fair, transparent process, and to give some theater, some drama to the American people. I think it would resuscitate the Democratic brand better than anything else. Yeah, everybody would pay attention because nobody's going to watch it now. But when you say compete, how would they do that? Biden releases his delegates, and the candidates make speeches, run commercials, and campaign to reach those delegates.

All right, so it's basically a speech-making. There's no debate or anything. You're not going to line them up on the stage. You know, at this point, if Joe Biden gets out before the August 7th deadline when he's supposed to be nominated, we're in tabula rasa, anything can happen. And I think that would be good for America, good for the Democrats. So they could have a debate before the convention, they can line them on up. What about Michelle? I told my audience yesterday that I'm pretty good contacts. You know that. I've been around a long time. I don't get a word for Michelle. I get nothing on her. Total shutdown.

Do you have anything on her? You know, I'm getting the same thing. I have tried all my sources. They're coming back with zero. I sense today that she is not running. The only way I see her running is if this process that's going to play out leads to some sort of, you know, crash. and the Democratic Party towards the end of August comes to her as a United Front.

Maybe, maybe she runs. Other than that, I don't think it's going to happen. And last one, Hillary Clinton always hovering around the Democratic Party. What's her situation? You know, she has been so shrill, Bill, and so harsh and so hostile. I really think with the weak poll number she has, she is very unlikely to not only be in conversation or to be the nominee. So even the Democrats don't like her now?

To a large extent, that's true. And why is that? Why did they turn on Hillary? I think that the lack of empathy, beneficence, kindness, generosity of spirit that we've all seen has penetrated down to the electorate. And they feel that she is really yesterday's news. And they want a young, vibrant presentation, right? And that's why Newsom has really run California into the ground. I mean, if he runs on his record, it's ridiculous. He's a candidate with a bad record.

Right. But I understand he's ordered more hair products, so maybe that's an indicator. That suggests, okay? I don't want to see it on the social media. It suggests. All right, Doug. Thank you very much, as always. Bill, thank you as always.

And if you get any new poll numbers, just let me give you. Give us a heads up on that, okay? First call to you, Bill. Yeah, the polls take on more of importance now. Power, politics, and the people behind the headlines. I'm Miranda Devine, New York Post columnist, and the host of the brand new podcast, Podforce One. Every week, I'll sit down for candid conversations

with Washington's most powerful disruptors, lawmakers, newsmakers, and even the president of the United States. These are the leaders shaping the future of America and the world. Listen to Podforce One with me, Miranda Devine, every week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. You don't want to miss an episode. Hey, it's Sean Spicer from the Sean Spicer Show podcast, reminding you to tune into my show every day to get your daily dose inside the world of politics. President Trump and his team are shaking up Washington like. never before. And we're here to cover it from all sides, especially on the topics the mainstream

media won't. So if you're a political junkie on a late lunch or getting ready for the drive home, new episodes of the Sean Spicer Show podcast drop at 2 p.m. East Coast every day. Make sure you tune in. You can find us at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, James Carver old time, dem, all right? But he's in the establishment. All right. He's deeply ingrained in the party. Here's what he said yesterday. Go. But if the Democratic Party is so committed to the status quo and so committed to sticking with something that three quarters of the country doesn't want, then we have to say, why do we exist? What are we here for?

So Carville does not want Biden to run. And now he's going to have to. after the party, because the party is turning on Biden, but it's slow, okay? But the Democratic establishment will win. It will overtake Jill Biden and the White House people, who are really basically self-interested, not country first. All right, Politifact. Here's a story of the night. So PolitiFact is an outfit run out of St. Petersburg, Florida. It's owned by the Pointer Institute, and it bills itself as a truth teller. It takes facts that are uttered and sees if those facts are valid, or if they're propaganda. Okay?

So they zero in on me, but first I'm going to tell you quoting 100% what I said, put it up, quote, this was June 30th, and I say, here's a Biden update from Bill O'Reilly.com news headquarters. The decision has been made that the president will quit the campaign. Two reasons, Democrat internal polling says he cannot recover from the debate, and fundraising is drying up. So it's over for Joe. But the White House doesn't yet know how or when to make the announcement. Stay close. All right, that was my tweet.

Now, if I had to write that tweet today, I would say, but Jill Biden has intruded, which was not the case when I wrote the tweet. I didn't know that was going to happen. But all of the other stuff that I've said is true. So the Democratic establishment led by Barack Obama and Ron Claim, who's Biden's chief of staff, first two years, they want them out. That's true.

So here's what Politifact puts up. Quote, days after the 2024 election's first presidential debate, conservative commentator, Bill O'Reilly announced a president Joe Biden had dropped out of the race. Had dropped out of the race. Did I announce that? I did not. So Politifact lied. The fact checkers lied.

I didn't announce he dropped out of the race. I said it was over because the Democratic establishment wanted them out. And now they had to figure out when and how to do it. So then when I saw the lie from Politifact, Pointer Institute, a lot of money behind that. I traced it back. And we found a study from the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University in Virginia that concluded PolitiFAC was three times as likely to rank statements from Republicans as lies. false. Twice as likely to rank statements from Democrats as entirely true. This is the study of

Politifact. Now, I know you don't care. You don't even know what political fact, politic fact is. I know that. But I am bringing this to your attention because of the overarch the fix is in in this country it is almost impossible to get honest dues and the fact checkers are fraudulent incredible some politic fact to politico a website political website uses anonymous sources all day long all right so the latest is a report that President Biden is mean, M-E-A-N mean. Quote, they use an anonymous person supposedly knows Biden, close to Biden, and that person says, you can't conclude anything that will set him off, or say, put that in. He likes that. said one senior administration official.

It's a Rorschach test, not a briefing, because he is not a pleasant person to be around when he's briefed. It's very difficult, and people are scared, s word of him, unquote. All right, that's political. Now, is that true? No idea. Anybody can say anything at any time on an anonymous basis. So I'm not going to run around go, oh, Joe Biden's meeting.

He tells all his people to blank off. But I will tell you is, and the only thing that political had right in this that I can see is that Biden's people are turning. But we don't use anonymous sources as facts here. I will always say, this is an anonymous source, so I can't vouch for the validity. I can vouch for the border stats, so about 103,000 have crossed the border into the USA in June. And most of them were let go, and there are joining you in your communities. By comparison, in June 2020, when Trump was in, 31,000 migrants crossed in.

Okay, and most of them were not released. Hunter Biden suing Fox News, this is a riot. This is so funny. So Fox News does a mock trial called the trial of Hunter Biden, fictional program. And in that, it includes images of Hunter Biden naked. I don't know where they got them or they made it up or they had an artist. I don't know, I didn't see it. So Hunter Biden suing Fox News saying it violated New York Civil Rights Law, Section 52B, which is revenge porn.

This is true. Absolutely true. So Hunter Biden suing Fox News, and I got some lawyer to pick it up, not costing a Hunter Biden anything, trying to shake down Fox. How many times does that happen? Okay. So the law basically says you cannot publish a naked picture of somebody. You can't. That's revenge form.

Now, this will be thrown out, but did you hear that reported anywhere? I don't even think Fox News reported. Smart Lives. So how much money do you need to feel financially secure a year coming into the house? How much? guess a number. This is a survey from bank rate financial news service. Okay, it was conducted in May, about 2,500 U.S. adults, all right, online. The number that Americans say they need every year coming into the house is $186,000 to feel secure. Okay. Now, 186,000 in New York City, no.

You're not going to be secure. San Francisco, no. L.A., no. But in most places, that would do. Now, the second question was, how much do you need every year for you to feel rich, wealthy? Okay, $520,000 a year,

half million a year. And this is before taxes. Now, on the 186,000 secure number, only 6% of U.S. adults make more than $186,000. Smart life. So if you want to make more money, you have to develop a skill that is better than pretty much everybody else so that you're in demand by corporations and companies that will pay you more because you can make more money for them. Or you've got to go out on your own.

There are only two ways to do it. Go out on your own and form a business or go under the corporate umbrella and outperform the other people. That's what I did. Now I have my own business, but up until seven years ago, I worked in corporate America, but I outperformed almost everybody

and rose up. okay but there's only two avenues unless you want to be a criminal smart life highest property taxes in the country where the top five states they are Illinois has the highest property tax rate Jersey second Connecticut third New York fourth Nebraska wow I didn't know that five highest property taxes lowest Hawaii because the Wyans don't have any money because they're paying so much an income tax and all that. Arizona, Alabama, Delaware, hello Joe Biden, Tennessee, lowest property taxes. This day in history, July 2nd, 1881, President James Garfield, shot by an assassin.

Interesting story, I will chronicle it in confronting the presidents out September 10, 10th. So Garfield was from Ohio. He's a congressman. He was a Civil War general for the union, Battle of Shiloh, brave man. He gets elected, and he gets to office, and nobody really knows if he's going to be any good or not. So back then, in 1881, there was no air conditioning anywhere in America, and D.C. in the summer, well, it's unbearable. So Garfield and his family decide to take a trip to New England. He sends his wife ahead with the urchins. He goes on a train. Okay? And before he can get on that train, a guy named Charles Gittal from Michigan shoots him twice, two bullets, boom, boom. They arrest Gattel immediately. But here is the fascinating part of the story.

Even after Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by John Wilkes Booth, presidents did not have a security detail. Can you believe it? So Garfield goes down, he's got two bullets. They take him to the hospital. He doesn't die. He's 49 years old. He's strong. Two months later, he gets an infection because of the wounds and he dies.

He's assassinated. He's dead. Okay. Second president shot dead. Then this guy, Gattal, goes on trial, and he's found guilty in 45 minutes, and they hang him. Okay, Gattal 40 years old. He was mentally ill, disturbed, jury and care, rope around his neck, he's out of there. This day in history, under 43 years ago, President James Garfield shot, back with a final

Final thought in a moment. All right, final thought of the day. We are closing the store until Monday. I got to give my folks a break. We've been working really hard, as you know. So if Biden drops out, we'll be, I'll do a special. I'll come back. But we are going to pick it on up again Monday.

I'll have a Sunday column. And in the meantime, I'm going to the beach. Going to go to the beach. Big umbrella. No sun. And I got three books I'm reading. First one is Cleet by my favorite fiction author, James Lee Burke. The man is 87 years old, and he still turns out unbelievable prose.

It's incredible. Second one is a book called Don't Let the Devil Ride by Ace Atkins, a thriller. And Atkins has been around, and he knows how to write these books. See, on the beach, I want just a fast read. And the third one is Don Winslow, City on Fire. He's got three of those city on books. Winslow, like Atkins, a tremendous storyteller. So I'm going to read those books on the beach.

I'm going into water. Okay? I'm going, a little chilly on Eastern Long Island, and I'm going in it. And I'm going to read the books and I'm going to have some fun, big weather-duly blasts and all that. And I want you to do the same, all right? You deserve a break. We all deserve a break, particularly in a madness in which we live. But it's all going to work out.

I told you something big would happen. Remember, something big is going to happen. O'Reilly said it and said it and said it and something big did in the debate. And now it's going to play out. And I think I know how it's going to play out. But we are on it. I hope you are enjoying our reporting here, because we're working on. our butts off to bring you the best information we can possibly bring you.

I'm Bill O'Reilly. Thank you for watching. Have a great 4th of July. We'll see you on Monday.