Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - Kamala Harris' Word Salad Problem, an Election Forecast With Dr. Liberty Vittert Capito, Marijuana to Become 'the Law of the Land'? & Where Voters Stand on Gender Change Surgeries

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

Tonight's rundown:  Hey BillOReilly.com Premium and Concierge Members, welcome to the No Spin News for Tuesday, October 15, 2024. Stand Up for Your Country.  Talking Points Memo: Bill analyzes Kamala Harris's recent interviews, highlighting her growing incoherence. Professor Liberty Vittert Capito joins the No Spin News to share her predictions for the 2024 presidential race. Harris is pledging to federally legalize marijuana, declaring that access to cannabis will become “the law of the land.” Are the majority of registered voters in favor of banning sex-change surgery procedures for minors? Smart Life: Bill's part one of a U.S. Citizenship test. This Day in History: Duke University's lacrosse team scandal.  Final Thought: Bill recaps last night's Yankees game. In Case You Missed It: Read Bill's latest column, Winning is the Only Thing For a limited time, get our three latest Political Memorabilia mugs at a 25% discount. Our Political Memorabilia 2.0 bundle includes a Not Woke mug in navy, a Team Normal mug in white and our newest mug, No Socialism in navy. ORDER TODAY! Election season is here! Now's the time to get a Premium or Concierge Membership to BillOReilly.com, the only place for honest news analysis. Get Bill's latest book, CONFRONTING THE PRESIDENTS, out NOW! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey Bill O'Reilly here. Welcome to the No Spin News, Tuesday, October 15th, 2004, stand up for your country. Well, three weeks from today, I will walk over to my polling place, about a half mile away. I need the exercise. and I will go there, give my name, show my ID, and I will vote in person. Now, I like doing that.

I like talking to the poll people. I haven't seen them a lot. They're there, and anybody else is going to ask me, you know, what I think. Nobody asks me who I vote for, but for the first time ever, I told you who I'm going to vote for because I cannot vote for Kamala Harrison a progressive ticket. I can't. I mean, I'd be betraying my country if I did that, because they don't want the country that we have now. They want drastic change, and I don't.

I think we have to tweak it, absolutely, but I don't want to throw everything out the window. That's just insane. So, anyway, for the first time ever, everybody knows who I'm voting for, and I'll go down there three weeks from today, and I'll do it. No envelopes for me, no absentee, no early voting. I don't need that. You know, my patriotism is traditional. And, you know, my grandparents, great-grandparents, everybody, they went to the poll. So I'm going. Talking points memo this evening is say what you mean, if you can. So Kamala Harris is sliding deeper into incoherence. This is not a personal thing. This is a repertoire thing.

All right. When you hear her, very few people know what she's talking about. Say what you mean, Ms. Vice President. I don't know what you mean half the time. So she goes on the Black Star Network, whatever that is. I have no idea what that is. It's promoting African American opinion, I guess. I don't know. So they're talking about how Trump's her racist is what they do, okay? And Trump is scaring everybody with urban crime. Roll a tape. Again, he's singling out cities where there are significant African-Americans,

and that's who he's talking about, black people. Yes. Yes. You know, there's this whole – I talked with somebody once who said, you know, if you just look at where the stars are in the sky, Don't look them as just random things. If you just look at them as points, look at the constellation, what does it show you? So you just outlined it, Roland.

What does it show you? That the cities that he picks on in terms of black population or black mayor are both. Come on. No, constellations. And I really don't know what that. was all about. Now, in any fair interview, and that certainly wasn't one, has run by a guy who hates white people, in my opinion. And Harris knows that, by the way. She goes into these precincts. It would be like Trump going into some clan thing, all right? It's crazy. But they'll

never call Harris out on it. So what has been ignored in that conversation is that the vast majority of crime victims are African Americans. People who are hurt by criminals. And the criminals that are hurting the African American victims are black. That is significant. Is it not? Is it not? So when you point that out, it might be a good thing to do it, So the problem could get solved because it's been going on for 40, 50 years. Nobody's paying attention to it. Oh, you want to hurt the poor African Americans? Go ahead.

Certainly the Black Star Network can do anything about it. Right? So anyway, I use the sound by, because I think that she is up in the constellation somewhere. I don't know what she's talking about. Say what you mean. Okay. So today, Kamala Harris goes to Detroit to another African-American radio guy. Okay.

I guess she's trying to bolster her standing within the black community, black voters, because she's lost some of them. I don't know if this does any good or not. I do know that there isn't one interview on television, video interview, that's on her any good. Not one in this whole campaign. So now she's going on Fox News tomorrow. Brett Baer is the interrogator. I wrote a message of the day on Bill O'Reilly.com.

I'm sorry, I'm so boring, but please go there every morning and read it. You don't have to be a premier and conservative member. You don't have to be anything. Let's go Bill O'Reilly.com, boom, there's a message of the day. I wrote about the difficulty that Brett Bear has in front of him. More pressure on him than her. If Bear does not ask tough questions and call her out when she dodges, if she dodges, Okay, FNC viewers, that can be furious.

Okay, so he's not a confrontational guy and he's not an opinion guy. I don't expect a confrontation, but he's got to go on the record and say, look, I asked you A, you told me you have a middle class house upbringing, that doesn't answer A. That's what you do. Now, I know this better than anybody in the world

because I did the same thing, the exact same thing. Let's go back. September 2008. Okay. John McCain running against Barack Obama, Senator McCain getting momentum. Okay, he's got Sarah Palin on a ticket. She was initially popular.

I get a call. You've got to go to York, Pennsylvania, if you want to interview Senator Obama, which I wanted to do. So I get on the plane and I go to York. All right? This is exactly the same scenario. as bear Kamala Harris.

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You can find us at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. Roll the tape. But I still don't understand. I'm asking this as an American as well as a journalist, how threatening you feel Iran is. See, look, if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, okay? To me, they're going to give it to Esbalah, if they can develop the technology. why not? And then we don't have anything to do with it. So therefore the next president of the United States is going to have to make a decision about Iran, whether to stop them militarily, because I don't believe if diplomacy works fine, but you've got to have a plan B. And a lot of people are saying, look, Barack Obama's not going to attack Iran. Here's where you and I agree. It is unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon. It would be a game changer. And I've said that repeatedly. I've also said I would never take a military option off the table.

But would you prepare for one? Well, listen. That's the question, though, Senator. Anybody can say option. Would you prepare for it? Look, it is not appropriate for somebody who is one or two people who could be the President of the United States to start tipping their hand in terms of what their plans might be with respect to Iran.

It's sufficient to say I would not take the military option off the table and that I will never hesitate to use our military force in order to protect the homeland and the United States' interests. All right. So that was a discussion. than an interview, which is what Bear should try to do tomorrow. And you've got to give Barack Obama credit. You have to.

I mean, he sat there for a good 40 minutes. Bears interview is only going to be 20, 25. And he, you know, we back and forth. And it was good, right? So you have there a baseline. Brett Baer was smart. He'd go back and watch all three of my interviews with Barack Obama. Yeah, he won't.

That's not to say he's not smart, but it doesn't even occur to these folks. All right, so I'm going to analyze this on Thursday. Bear's going to run it on a show at 6 on FNC. I'll have a big, big takeout on it on Thursday. A very important story because it's the first time of Kamala Harris putting herself at risk. I don't know if that's fair, but she's going into a non-cupcake situation. The CBS 60 Minutes thing wasn't a cupcake, but now it's shrouded with controversy because CBS won't release the transcript, which is just crazy.

Okay, finally, Time Magazine, not what it used to be. I think everybody would agree with that. Turn, they want to interview Kamal Harris. Nope, not going to do it. So here is the tweet from the editor. and the owner of Time Magazine, quote, Time has not been granted an interview with Kamala Harris, unlike every other presidential candidate.

We believe in transparency and publish each interview in full. Why isn't the Vice President engaging with the public on the same level? Trust matters, transparency matters, leadership. Now, I don't know why Harris had turned down an interview with Time Magazine. That's not hostile territory. It's just something very strange about this. And that's the memo. All right, schedules Joe Biden goes of Philadelphia to do something with the sheet metal workers union.

I don't know what it is. Harris, I mentioned in Detroit with a radio talk show host. And then Trump is going to do a town hall today, tape it for Fox News as well. Fox News is on a role here. And it's all about women. So it's going to air tomorrow. So Trump will be on in the morning, and FNC, and then Kamala will be on Thursday, right? No, no, at night, at night, on the bear show at night.

Big night, big day for Fox. Good for them. Okay. Now, three weeks before the 2020 vote, what were you doing? Can you remember back four years ago? I was doing this. because I was on the no spin news and we were working our way up to the most successful independent news agency in the world, which we arrived at about six and a half years took us, and YouTube

has really, really surged that. Anyway, three weeks before the 2020 vote, there were three polls I want to tell you about. But first, you've got to have a baseline. I've used that word twice now. So the popular vote was Biden 51.3, Trump 46.8, a four and a half point spread in 20. Okay. New York Times poll, three weeks out, had Biden at 50 percent, Trump at 41. A nine point spread. Quintipiac, a 10 point spread. A 10 point spread. spread for Biden. Rasmussen, much more friendly to Republicans, a three-point spread for Biden. Okay. So polling, and polling is all over the place now. Very tight. I was with John McLaughlin at the Yankee game last night. I ran into him. Good guy, by the way. And it's just all over the place. nobody can really nail it down. So we searched around as somebody who was right the last two times on Trump Hillary and

Trump Biden. And her name is Dr. Liberty Capito. And she teaches at Washington University in St. Louis, very fine college, great reputation. Might be a little woke for yours truly, but it's a good academic school, no doubt about it. Now, Ms. Capito, Dr. Capito, was a senior friend. fellow at Harvard, MIT. She's smart, obviously smarter than I am. And she predicted 16 and 20 accurately how it came out. She joins us now from West Virginia. So I don't, I don't, I feel a little uneasy asking to predict the race. Do you want it? Do you have a prediction? I do. I do. I mean,

well, let me give it to you this way. In 2020, you know, Biden was, was, was, they have pollsters had Biden up at about 10 points above Trump. He ended up winning by about five. So the pollsters were five points off. Same thing in 2016, right? We had Clinton. Pollsters had Clinton up by about five and Trump ended up winning on the other side. So the idea would be that in 2024, pollsters really haven't changed their methods all that much, shockingly, being wrong the last two times. And they have Harris up by about three. So if it's actually that Trump has this sort of a 5% hidden vote, then it would be that Trump's going to win this time. All right.

That's my feeling as well. But there are other factors in besides numbers. And I want to start with this. So Joe Biden got 81 million votes. Most of them, according to exit polling, were anti-Trump votes. Not we want Joe. I can't see Kamala Harris because Trump now has been. been around so long, coming close to the 81. I feel she's in a 70 range, popular votes,

70 million. That's where I think she is. Because Trump has now the advantage of a failed Biden-Harris administration. Am I wrong? No, I think you're right. I think we have two types of voters in this country. I think we have a pro-Trump vote and an anti-Trump vote. It's not a pro-Harris vote and a pro-Trump vote. I think you're absolutely right. So if the Biden, and there's no if about it, Biden and Harris have hurt the American worker because costs for essentials of life are up 20%. So even though if you hate Donald Trump, don't like them, don't approve of them, all right, you're getting hurt. And I think some of those people whose hatred probably is not as high as the NBC news people, they're going to go, you know, I don't like either. them, but I'd like to have more money in my pocket. That's where it is for me. Yeah, I mean,

we sort of have seen this election come down to either whether things are going to be about the economy and immigration or whether it's going to be about social issues. If you care about the economy and immigration, it's going to be a Trump vote. If you care about the social issues, it's going to be a Harris vote. And right now, the stories are economy. Yeah, I mean, people have got to live. Now, I'm worried about my analysis because I was wrong in 22. And I'm not usually wrong. And I admit when I'm wrong, but I'm not usually wrong. I call the Biden bailout way before anybody else.

But I was wrong on the so-called red wave because we were in the middle of those prices going up in 22. But there was no red wave. The people hung in and voted Democrat. And I was shocked by that. Can you explain it? Yeah, I think there's a really big difference when you're looking. looking at polling on sort of midterm elections versus presidential elections, the presidential election is really what sets the tone and it trickles down. You don't have a trickle-up effect.

So, for example, a governor's race in a state is not going to affect who that state is going to vote for for president. But who that state votes for president is certainly going to affect who the senator or the governor is going to be. And so I think that's what we really saw in 22 was there was still that trickle-down effect from 20. Power, politics and the people behind the headlines. I'm Miranda Devine, New York Post columnist and the host of the brand new podcast, Podforce One. Every week I'll sit down for candid conversations with Washington's most powerful disruptors, lawmakers, and even the president of the United States.

These are the leaders shaping the future of America and the world. Listen to Podforce One with me, Miranda Devine, every week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. You don't want to miss an episode. Hey, I'm Caitlin Becker, the host of the New York Postcast, and I've got exactly what you need to start your weekdays. Every morning, I'll bring you the stories that matter, plus the news people actually talk about. The juicy details in the worlds of politics, business, pop culture, and everything in between. It's what you want from the New York Post wrapped up. in one snappy show. Ask your smart speaker to play the NY Postcast podcast. Listen and subscribe

on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. What about the lingering effects of COVID? It's gone now, of course. But I've always said to myself, you know, maybe 22 wasn't a harbinger of how the nation was feeling because COVID intruded in some way. Did you see that at all? Absolutely. We saw that a lot in exit polls. We saw that a lot in focus groups with people feeling really still unsettled, uneasy, scared. You know, that was still a time where people were masking and were really afraid of what was happening. Yeah. So right now, final question for you, doctor. I see it as an emotional vote in three weeks from today. And people are voting emotionally because they don't have. have as much money as they used to have. That's what I, and the migrant thing, of course, is battering the Democrats and the vice president, battering it. But it's the money. People are worried economically. Last word. I think you're, you've hit the nail on the head there, and I think that's what we're going to end up seeing. I think there's going to be an October

surprise. I think it's just going to be the constant stories about how people don't have enough money. Right. And you're betting on Trump to win, right? Not betting. I am, God, now I'm saying it officially, but yeah, I am. All right. Thank you very much, Dr. Very kind of you to help us out this evening. Thank you. All right, media, madness, love these segments, because I'm in the media. It'll be 50 years in January. Can you believe it?

I know, I'm a dopey joke that I started when I was 12 years old, but 50 years in the media. I've outlasted everybody, all my peers. You know, they're guys around older than me, still practice. but the guys that I came up with and gals, they're all retired, they're all out of it, and probably their mental health is a lot better because of it. But anyway, peer research poll out recently, 9,680 adults about misleading news. Very interesting. First question, 37% of respondents have seen inaccurate news,

very often. I'd be in there. That's me. 36 somewhat frequently. So that's a 73% number on Americans who have seen inaccurate news presented on television. 52% say it's difficult to determine what's true. 47% claim it's easy. If you're one of those 47%, please write me, Bill at Bill O'Reilly.com. If you, if it's easy for you to discern what's true and what's propaganda, let me know what your, what your strategy is there. Final question, 51% of Democrats say they've seen inaccurate reporting very often, but 62% of Democrats, I'm sorry, the first number was Republicans. So I screwed this up tile. Let me do it. Let me unscrew it.

62% of Democrats say they have been exposed to inaccurate coverage very up, okay? 51% of Republicans said. So that means more Democrats are mad about being misled, misled by whom? Are you guys watching Fox News? Newsmax? Because that's it. That's it. Maybe talk radio?

Could be that? Because 80% of the TV media is left. That was an interesting stat. All right. Let's go to the social issues that the doctor was talking about. I don't believe they're going to be paramount in our voting three weeks from now, although abortion will sway some women. And I think Kamala Harris will carry the woman vote, but not by a big margin.

All right, so Kamala Harris wants to legalize pot at the federal level. Right now, 24 states have legalized cannabis. And D.C., of course. You've got to smoke pot if you're going to live in D.C. You have to. So 24 states and 26 have it. But Kamala says, no, no, no, all states have to legalize pot because the federal government is going to legalize it. Why?

Why? What's good about having legalized marijuana? What? Just answer. She doesn't know. I don't think she knows. It might be because 200,000. 217,000 arrests last year for marijuana-related offensive, and the left doesn't want that.

But most of those arrests, okay, were drug dealers. They were selling pot, fentanyl, cocaine, everything. Okay? That's what drug dealers do. And 29% of those arrested were black. are black. There's a racial component here. If that's Kamala Harris's thinking to legalize pot, let's hear it. Right? So it's not an important issue, and bear won't ask about it, but I would, at the end, say, hey, you want a pot? What good does that do? It puts more stone

people behind a wheel of a car. Makes it easier for children to get it if pot's legalized everywhere. since pot has been legalized in New York, there's a terrible, terrible problem among urchins smoking pot or taking the candy before they go to school. Do you know that? The dealers are up and down a block outside of the schools. Ooh. Sex change surgery. So I asked my staff to see if Vice President Harris has ever said anything in her whole life about minors, American kids below 18, having sex change surgeries. We haven't found it. She hasn't said it. All right. New study from the center, noble predictive insights, 2,560 registered voters. political affiliation is fair, female, 55, male, 44, that's not fair, okay, about sex change

operations. I don't know why they'd skew it female, why? Why would you do that? Okay, first question, should the federal government ban transgender procedures such as puity blockers and gender-related surgeries for minors? Yes, 59 percent, big number, big number. No 25. Don't know 16. That's more than 2 to 1. Okay. Females. Yes, ban it. 56. No, 28. That's a double. Males. Ban it, 63, no 23. Democrats, ban it, yes, 36, no 43. There's your progressive Democratic Party. Right there. Again, ban it.

Senate, 36, Democrats? No, 43. So they're okay. They have any surgeries for people under, I got a call from a friend the other day. Anecdotal, I'm sorry, but it's true. So their child was transitioning, didn't go the full way, but then said, you know, I want to go back.

Kids do that, right? Kids are dopey. So, anyway, Republicans ban at 82, no 10. Independence ban at 56, no 17. Okay, smart life today. I want to do a quiz. You got a pen and paper. I always recommend you watch and listen to the no-spin news with a pen and paper.

We're going to do the next three days today, Wednesday, Thursday. I'm going to give you two questions each day in the Smart Life segment that foreign nationals have to answer. in order to become citizens of the United States. Okay? And I'm not giving you the hardest ones. I'm giving you kind of the easiest ones to see if you get it. Is that fair? Ready to take the quiz?

You have no choice. First question. What is the supreme law of the land? What dictates all our laws? What one thing? Doot do do, do, do, do. Ready? The Constitution.

Okay. All of our laws stem from one document. That's why we have a supreme court to see if everything's constitutional. Got it? I hope you did. But maybe you weren't a little confused. That's okay. But now you're not, clear-eyed, second question.

Okay, what do we call the first ten amendments to the Constitution? And remember, foreign nationals got to know this. What do we call first ten amendments? Ready? The Bill of Rights. That is our individual rights. Now, I admire people from other countries. countries who try to gain American citizenship legitimately.

They wait, they pay the fees, they take the test, I want them here. So we know. All right, so I hope you got both of them. I'm going to have two more. Tomorrow, as I said, two more Thursday. That's smart life. Want you to be smart. Best countries in the world, according to the American people, okay?

It is a big, big survey, U.S. News and World Report. Nobody reads their magazine anymore, but they do read their studies, best colleges, best countries. Now, Americans ranked the top 10 countries. Ready? Best country, according to American citizens, Sweden. What? Now, I've spent some time in Sweden. It's a nice little country, but it's freezing and it's socialist.

Why would you pick that as the best country? You can't go to the beach. They don't have mountains. Why? All right. Second USA. Yay. All right.

Second best country. Japan. Third. Now, why? Very orderly in Japan. Going there in the spring. Been there a half dozen times. Very orderly.

But not among my favorites. Italy, four. I guess these are the food people. Fabulous food. Germany. Whoa, Germany number five. Why? I like Bavaria, but Germany? Switzerland, I could live there. Six. Canada, again, socialist. Beautiful. Beautiful. UK eight, Denmark, Mark 9, Australia 10. I'd have Australia higher. There are a lot of liberal loons down there but beautiful country, very much like the USA. I know the Aussies don't like me saying that,

but it's true. All right, there are your 10 best. Stay in history. This is a very interesting story. 18 years ago, October 15, 2006, you're going to remember this story. All right? Three members of the Duke University lacrosse team appear on 60 minutes to deny raping a woman who they hired to perform for them. Now this was the infamous Duke lacrosse case. Here's what happened. March 13th, 2006, Duke lacrosse players hold a party off campus. They hired two strippers to entertain them. One of the strippers, a woman named Crystal Magnum, goes to the authorities, calls 911. says she's raped. There's Crystal. She's raped by a bunch of lacrosse players. An investigation

takes place as well it should. Got to investigate. She's on the record. And the DA charges three Duke lacrosse players. So 18 years ago, they go on 60 minutes and they say, we didn't do it. Okay? But the media convicts them. Roll the tape. Miller, what's your response to the indictments handed down and the arrests? Well, I think I speak for many students when I say that we're very, very concerned that two innocent people may have possibly just had their lives ruined. You're saying it's not possible or innocent. That's not even in the realm of possibility.

No, I'm not saying it's not possible, but a grand jury has heard evidence and deemed this fit to go to a trial. And without ever hearing what the victim has to say, you're saying the grand jury's wrong, the victim is wrong, the victim. lying and your first problem is two innocent people I said I didn't say that I said we're concerned that it's possible that two innocent people may have had their lives ruined because this case does have many irregularities okay now that was Stephen Miller works for Trump now so that was pretty outrageous right I remember covering this I go hey got to get these students due process well what happens so the attorney general North Carolina Roy Cooper drops all the charges because it was

no evidence. DNA is in stack. Okay? There were false allegations by this woman. After Ms. Grace and not only her, but 90% of the media convict the kids. They're okay. They sued Duke and they got $20 million in a settlement. Three boys that were charged got 20 million from Duke And they got money from the county, too. So they're okay. And then we try, I'm not going to give you their names because I don't want to disrupt their lives again. But they're all, they all employed, they're all okay. But here's the kicker.

Crystal Magnum is in prison for killing her boyfriend, murdering him. She's in Goldsboro, North Carolina prison. Okay. Serving 14, 18 years. Okay. Final thought, Yankee Stadium, Taylor Swift. last night. I'll tell you all about it. All right, there's a final thought, so I'm lucky enough to get invited to go to

ball games here in New York, and I went to the Yankee game last night. Steinbrenner family has been very nice to me, and we're in the booth, and Taylor Swift was there with the guy, she's going out with the Kansas City chief guy. Nobody saw that. They were kind of like hidden in the stadium. The stadium is monumental, it's cavernous. So I don't know where they were, but they made sure they got their picture out. Somebody got their picture, and they made sure to get it out. Now, I, I'm a correspondent.

It was a whole bunch of people. Very interesting people, and we had a lot of laughs. First of all, there's Chas Pellam Interior, a friend of ours. If you get a chance to see his one-man show, you've got to do that. Chaz's a really good guy. He's telling me all about Gandalfini. There's Cardinal Dolan, Reins. stating me after excommunicating me for something. He's a big Yankee fan, even though he's

from the Midwest. He's a very good guy. And then we had the owner of the Yankees, Hal Steinbrenner, the owner of the Islanders, John Ledecky and me, your humble correspondent. Anyway, that's enough of that. I'm not a big hanging with the swells guy, but I learned so much. Like I said, I was talking to Chas about Gandalfini, who I never met. Fascinating. And all the these people, their one question was Mayor Adams, is he going to survive in New York City, and I do not think he will. That was the buzz. It wasn't so much Trump and Kamala. It was, you know, because this is local. Now, I'm one of the few human beings on Earth who roots for the Yankees and the Mets. Now, that's almost a sacrilege. So I got a dispensation

from Cardinal Dolan. I can do it. So tomorrow night, I'll be with the Mets. I'll be with the Mets. Again, that's the team I grew up with. And I'm hoping for a subway series here. Now, if there is a subway series, Yankees versus Mets and a World Series, I'll be your go-to guy there. So I know everything about them. And I will tell you all that stuff. It's not a sports broadcast, but this is so much relief from the politics we all have to deal with every day. It's just great. Thank you for watching and listening to the NoSpin News. We will see you tomorrow.