Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - No Spin News - Weekend Edition - June 14, 2025

Episode Date: June 14, 2025

Listen to this week's No Spin News interview with Sen. Ron Johnson, Alexander Green, and Pastor John Amanchukwu. *The Oxford Club is a paid BillOReilly.com sponsor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Two Republicans voted against it, Massey and Davidson, in the House. All Democrats voted against Trump's spending bill. Now, the Senate has a lot of trouble because conservative senators don't want this amount of spending. They don't want it too high. But if the bill fails, then automatically, there are tax rises. We'll put them up on a full screen and I'll tell you for radio what it is. So the average individual tax, what you and I pay for working, will go up 2.5% automatically. But this is the most important thing, 50% of the deductions that we all file with the IRS go

away, which rockets how much money Americans will pay to the government. That's not pass, it's nothing, that just kicks in if this bill goes down. If that happens, it'll likely a recession will follow. If the recession follows, then the Republicans will lose the midterm elections and Donald Trump will be doomed. It's not just about spending. It's about holding power in America. Joining us now from Washington is a senator who does not like the bill.

I said he might not vote for the bill, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. My positioning this in a fallacious word of the day way, Senator. I think you have a pretty accurate assessment. I don't really disagree with it. And by the way, the bill as it goes, as far as it goes, I don't have too many problems with. The problem is it just simply doesn't go far enough. And if we do this as a one-and-done bill and we don't do anything further, and that's pretty much the indication we have,

we're simply not addressing the massive long-term debt and deficit that, to my standpoint, is the biggest issue here. So let me just throw a couple numbers at you. Just put this in perspective. In 2019, we spent $4.4 trillion. This year will spend over $7 trillion. That's a 58% increase. Next year, about 7.3.

But here's the one that I've really been focusing on now, average deficits over the last presidential terms. Obama came in, shot deficits up almost $1.3 trillion average in his first four years. But then the Tea Party, I'm part of that, came in. We put some restraint that got knocked down to about $550 billion a year for his four years. Trump came in, had a due deal with Democrats that went up to about $810 billion per year. Then he had COVID, a $3.1 trillion deficit, just a $1,000. massive bipartisan spending spree, and responsible leadership would realize, okay, that's an aberration. We got to return to pre-pandemic levels. We should have gotten down really below $5 trillion in

spending and certainly below a trillion dollars in deficits. It's not what happened. We kept spending at pandemic levels. Biden averaged deficits of $1.9 trillion. And if you look at the scoring of the big, beautiful bill right now, those deficits just continue to increase from about 2.2 trillion in the next four years up to about, I think, 2.9 trillion. That's off top of my head. Again, we're not bending the deficit curve down. Now, you can, you know, I'm going to be issuing a report. I've been working on over the weekend. We're doing different scenarios based on different growth scenarios. You literally have to get to about 4% growth before you start bending that deficit curve down, you know, that trajectory down toward balance.

3%, that kind of flattens it out. Average is about $2.1 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years. Again, I'm just not willing to accept that as new normal. Okay. Now, what you just said, nobody understands. I'm sorry about that. It's all right. It's impossible.

It's impossible. No average voter. So I'm a simple man, and I'm putting myself in your seat on the senator. And here's my calculation. You're right. The federal government spending is wildly out of control and the waste is phenomenal and our system needs to be more disciplined. You're right. But we're in a crossroads in history here where the Democratic Party doesn't want any spending cuts, maybe a little in defense, but they don't want any. You know it. Everybody knows it. They want to increase it. In fact, more. They don't don't even want supervision of Medicaid, which we'll do tomorrow. They don't want any reform. They hated Musk. They hate Doge. They don't want anything. That's where you start. The Republican Party is the party of responsibility now fiscally. But if the Republican Party gets its butt

kicked in 26, it's over. And the gates open and you'll have way more spending than you have now. is that true? You're right. Listen, it's easy to be. Okay, wait, wait, stop, stop. Okay, go ahead. So I'm right. Okay.

So what Trump is done, and I know this, because I have access to the president, he says, I know this bill, jacked spending. But my tariffs are going to bring down the deficit and debt. And, as you know, the recent report, in one month. the tariffs have cut the deficit in half. So Trump says, I'm going to get my trade deals. We don't know whether he will or not, okay? And then all the money coming into the Treasury is going to bring this stuff down. So keep me in power with no tax rise and that'll start to come down because of the money coming in.

Is the president wrong? Yes. I'd say that. I'm a big support of the president. But right now, the White House is putting out a memo saying the tariff revenue over the next 10 years would be about $2.8 trillion. Again, that compares to a $22 trillion deficit. And by the way, if you extend the taxes, they admit that the baseline goes up to about $25 trillion. So it might reduce the deficit by about 10%. And it's still inadequate. And the tariff for revenue is very problematic. It's being tested in the court where the President Trump really has this executive power. If the courts aside, he doesn't. And I think it, you know, again, I'm not a legal scholar when it comes to this tariff law. But if they strike that down, I doubt that Congress is going to impose sweeping tariffs like that. So again, that revenue is very uncertain.

And let me make a final point. I support President Trump because I want him to defeat the deep state. You don't defeat the deep state by continuing to fund it at President Bind's level. So for me, it is. It's spending, spending, spending. Okay. But if you hold firm, if you hold firm, Senator, and you vote against it and others do, Republicans do, then it all blows up. If you vote for it, I think there's a big possibility that if the economy surges, that you'll have a much bigger majority going forward where you can revisit this whole thing without the razor-thin majority in the House. and the Senate. Now, you know you can introduce new spending bills any time you want to introduce them. And if you have the power of the party controlling the Senate and the House, you can

revise this kind of thing. But if you have no power, then it's over. Last word. Understand. So, again, what I've been saying is I want a commitment to a reasonable pre-pandemic level and a process, a really strong, robust process to achieve and maintain it. Now, that gives pretty wide latitude. Again, a one-and-done single bill in this Congress, again, that's what I find unacceptable. I'm more than willing to work with the administration. You know, what is that process? You know, what can we do to make sure that we don't do a one-and-done bill?

So, again, you know, the game, not a game, you know, the process has just begun here in the Senate. And I'm just trying to make this a whole lot better. All right. And that's your job. We would have already had, quite honest the border funding. We would have already extended current taxes, take that tax increase off the table. Had we done it in my approach, President Trump decided one big, beautiful bill. But again, if it's a one and done bill, we're really short to changing ourselves here,

and we're really blowing a historic opportunity. There's no guarantee we'll have the House, the Senate, and we'll have the presidency in 2027, but we can't count on having the majority in the other two chambers. So we've got to do it now. I don't know. Do you have access to president and you returns your calls and stuff, right? of dialogue with him, correct? Correct.

He's not real happy with the, I've just been too many. You know, he wants what he wants, when he wants it. But it's all negotiation, you know that. Are you optimistic in the end that you're going to get a bill that will pass and so that taxes will not rise? Are you optimistic there? Yeah, we're not going to increase taxes. And by the way, I had to hold out on the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, too, because the bill

delivered by the House is only going to cut taxes for 5% of American businesses. So I'm the guy that had to dig there at my heels and say, hey, what about the 95% of American businesses that are pass-through entities? First of all, I had to educate my colleagues in terms of what a pass-through entity was. But again, I dug in. I got the snarly phone calls from the White House at 10 o'clock at night. But in the end, everybody thanked me for holding out. So, again, to make this a whole lot better than what it is. Again, do you think the vote, is your whole summer going to be ruined, or you're going to be able to vote fairly soon?

Well, in order to get a right, getting before July 4th, we won't have it right. So this may drag on it. Again, we all want the same result. We don't want an increase. We want to fund the border. We want to take what's spending a reduction that the House has already pocketed and just do more. And again, have a process for starting to bend that deficit trajectory down, which this bill doesn't do, unfortunately. All right, Senator, we really appreciate taking the time.

And we'll talk again soon, I hope. Thank you. Have a great day. I'm doing to my family because we're going to Burlington for the event

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and you may know that I have an association with them all the way back to 2003, and they've done very well for me. And we talked about what might happen under a Trump administration in the markets, okay? But then the tariffs hit, and all that went to hell. And so Alexander Green joins us now. So, Alex, did you have any idea these tariffs were even being discussed when we spoken for our board? I did. I'm a big fan of Trump extending the 2017 tax cuts

and deregulating business and extending our position in the energy of Renaissance, but I'm not a huge fan of the tariffs, and I didn't really mention the tariffs because I don't think that they're a positive thing. I do think that are positive to the extent that we can get other

countries to treat us more fairly, but just to pretend American businesses is not necessarily a good thing because it raises costs and invites retaliatory actions from countries overseas. Okay, but what happened was that once the tariffs were announced, the markets went crazy in April, and people lost a lot of money on paper. Now, I said to my audience hanged up, and the markets did recover, but the uncertainty and the fear that came about because of the tariffs is still there.

Would you disagree with that? No, I agree completely. You can see that what happens in the market is every time that the Trump administration says they're going to impose or increase tariffs, the stock market goes down. And every time they say that they're going to delay or reduce or negotiate away the tariffs, the stock market rallies. And the reason for this is very simple, Bill. Tariffs create uncertainty when businesses don't know what their costs are going to be.

They don't buy inventory. They don't hire employees. They can't expand because they're sort of frozen by the uncertainty. And so the reason that the markets have rallied now 25% from the market low after Liberation Day to where we are now is simply that investors don't believe that the worst case scenario is going to be what we're stuck with in the end, that the tariffs are going to be reduced or negotiated away. So to that extent, the market is celebrated. And that's why we're up 25% from the lows of two months ago.

Yeah, but that's what people want to believe. That's not necessarily that would happen. So I told my audience last week that I have sold off some stocks that are speculative, not my core group, not the group that provides dividends, but the ones that are speculative, I sold them because anything could happen on any day. And with these Chinese negotiations and all of that, it's very complicated. Now, when I was in North Asia 10 days ago, I did not see one American. car in Japan or China or Korea. Not one. And I was on a road. I mean, where we were going? And I said to myself, you know, in theory, Trump is right. We're getting a hosed. These countries are not taking our cars and a lot of other of our goods. They're making it impossible for us to sell

them abroad. Biden and most of the other presidents ignored it completely because it's such a hot issue and could go either way, but Trump decided to take it on. Now, that leaves the investor in the land of uncertainty, correct? That's correct. And again, to the extent that we can use the tariffs as a bargaining chip to get other countries to reduce their tariffs, I'm completely in favor. happening Alex where that I mean he's going to have a 10% tariff on everybody that's the admission fee to do business in the USA that's going to happen he's not going to blast that out but if they make a deal with China and again very complicated with China but China's hurting Chinese economy is hurting big time but investors they they're getting whipsawed all right every day

like this so then my question to you as a stock picker is what do you do? Well, there's a few things you can do. First of all, I'm not a market timer. I do commend you, Bill. If you're going to lighten up your positions, do it after the big rally we've had of the last couple of months. That's what I did.

That's what I did. Good for you. But I'm an optimist long term because you can look at the long term start of the market and it goes up and to the right. So we know that things that do well over time. But what you can do now is, number one, you can avoid. investing in companies that are hurt by tariffs, and not just by tariffs of countries exporting to the United States, but also countries that are exporting that face retaliatory

action. So you can avoid the companies that have the big tariff problems. You should also be aware that one of the reasons you don't see a lot of American cars on the road when you go overseas is, quite frankly, they make very good cars in South Korea and Japan and other parts of Asia. The best-selling sedan in the United States is the Camry, then the Corolla, then the Civic, and then the Accord, and so on. So it's, it's even Americans that like a lot of these Asian-made cars. But as an investor, you want to invest in those companies that have such a competitive advantage or either not hurt by the tariffs or they operate in industries that are not, that are resistant to the tariffs, a lot of service companies, for instance.

Well, that takes a lot of research, though, Alex, for the individual person to figure that out. I mean, you're going to be up real late trying to do that. No, you're right. Listen, Bill, I'm a stock picker. That's the kind of company I'm looking for. For the average investor, you know what they should really do is do what you've done with your core portfolio, which is sit tight and ride out the inevitable ups and downs because you're right. No one knows exactly how this is going to play out, not even Donald Trump. Because he only controls. He can't know what the other side is going to do in retaliation for what we do. So that's all the uncertain that's why the stock market is up and down

is because no one really knows how this is going to play out. But let me just say that research shows that if you miss the best 10 days in the market over a 20-year period, your returns are cut in half. So if someone gets out of the market completely, they run the risk of missing some of the biggest gains

because you just don't know. Because things could be resolved, very positively for American businesses, and that means good things for corporate profits and good things for the stock market. There's no doubt that could happen. I mean, but China is the key to it, and China is very rough. You know, when I was speaking to them, I made this point to China.

I said, you know, in the United States, if we have a recession, people have 401 caves. They can refinance their finances. Many people have savings accounts that fall back on. You guys have nothing. Okay, nothing. Yeah, no social. Your 1.5 billion people have to eat. Your economy goes south.

It crashes because the worldwide economy would be affected. All right. You're going to have a problem. So it's best for you, China and the United States, make a trade deal. That was my presentation. There was no pushback because the Chinese people have no reserve. They don't have any money. No, you're right, Bill.

They'll be political unrest. They're already afraid they quit publishing. how many young people are unemployed because they don't want them to see that it's a nationwide problem. But the government will employ you there. They have enough resources, so if you're out of work,

they'll give you a broom, and you'll get enough to feed yourself. But if more factories close, and that's what's happening now in China, the factories that make the hats and the shirts and all that stuff, they're closing. And because this month was the worst month, for Chinese exporting into the United States in 25 years.

And that'll continue. The Americans hold some advantage. And I don't want to into microeconomics. But the last question I have for you is that people are terrified, Alex, because this is beyond everybody's control. You know, human beings like to control their environment. They like to control their money, their security. They can't control it.

And if you got IRAs, if you've got college. funds, if you've got mutual funds, you can't control that. You're at the mercy of forces far beyond you. And I don't think that's a healthy thing. Well, you're so right, Bill, with these tariffs, nobody knows. But think about it, under ordinary circumstances, you don't know what GDP growth is going to be, you don't know what inflation is going to be, you don't know what corporate profits are going to be, you know, what the market's going to go up or down. Uncertainty is just part of the cost of admission when it comes to investing. No one can tell you. you what all those things will be, but we can look back at history and see that nothing has

outperformed a diversified portfolio of U.S. stocks over time. And the best thing that most people can do with all these uncertainties they're facing is not to freak out and run to cash. Because if you do that, the risk that you run is that while you're in cash, the market does something like it's done the last two months, which is it goes straight up. And then you're you're faced with the choice between, uh-oh, do I stay on the sidelines while I'm missing all the action, do I get in and having missed the rally be in for the next sell-off? And that's the position you know to put yourself in. So I think what you've done is wise, Bill. You trim back your more speculative positions, if you're uncertain about what lies ahead or particularly anxious about what lies

ahead. But stick with your core portfolio because even after 9-11 and after the pandemic and after this tariff episode is behind us, we know that over time sales rise, profits rise, and stock prices rise. And so the average person should really be doing what Warren Buffett and suggest that you do, which is sit on your hands and just write it out. All right, Alex, Chief Investment Strategist of the Oxford Club. We really appreciate your expertise. Thanks. Taking a time today.

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This is the No-Spin News Weekend Edition. All right, social disorder. So one of the big downsides of living in America is that our security, personal security, has declined dramatically in 50 years. After World War II, pretty sane, safe society, wasn't a lot of craziness going on. Now it's out of control, particularly in the cities run by the left. Social disorder is rising to a point never before seen in the world, not just in the United States.

Some stats. Right now, there are 19 million homes without fathers in the United States. according to Census Bureau. Nearly one and four kids don't have a dad, okay? Ethnic breakdown. Asian homes, 15% without fathers. White 20, Hispanic 29, blacks, a whopping 50% of African-American homes do not have a father present. Children, four times more likely to be poor without a dad. 71% of kids who abuse substance come from fatherless homes, 85% of youth in prison fatherless homes, 90% of runaways fatherless homes, 60% of youth suicides, fatherless homes. The USA is the highest rate of children living in single parent households of any nation in the world.

joining us now from wake forest north carolina is pastor john amanchuku he uh is a father's advocate he has written a book called hoodwink ten lies americans believe in the truth that will set them free um and he is an activist as well as being a pastor so i ask for you a pastor because I know that you're deeply, emotionally involved with this subject, and that's what I want. Why? Why has fatherhood declined so dramatically in this country? Well, I would say, as well as it relates to the black community, that it has been social engineering. from the 1890s all the way up to the 1950s, the black marriage rate rivaled that of whites. But in the 1960s, Lyndon B. Johnson came along with his great society plan, a strategic plan

as a means of removing the black man from the home and replacing him with a $300 check. Out goes dad, and here comes Big Daddy God government, coming in replacing the father. Okay, let me stop you there. That is a widely believed theory. But dad doesn't have to leave the home. Dad doesn't have to walk out the door, no matter what Lyndon Johnson did, correct? That is true, and I agree with that. That's the reason why I haven't left.

However, during that time frame, in order to receive certain government assistance and programs, Dad had to leave. And so for a family to- Well, why couldn't dad get a job to support his family? as African-American fathers did from, you know, the Civil War times until post-World War II. When you create welfare states, you shift the ideology and the framework of a person's mind. These are Marxist tactics and strategies that were pushed on the black community by the Democrat Party. But the black community accepted them.

Don't they have responsibility? Of course they have personal responsibility and accountability to it. I haven't succumbed to it because I understand scriptures. The Bible says if a man doesn't work, neither shall he eat. But there are a lot of people during that time frame after going through harsh treatment by the federal government and through state laws through Jim Crow, who thought it was necessary to gain much of their achievement through policy. And they bowed to the altar of Lyndon B. Johnson. thought that government was their best way out. Do I agree with that? Of course not. I'm a Christian

conservative. Let's say that's true. But we have now an epidemic of fathers in 2025 that's just split. They don't care. There's no contact. They're gone. And is there peer pressure? And I don't want to make this just about African Americans because it's obviously all ethnic groups are affected by it. Sure, it's a pandemic. Right. Is there peer pressure on these people? I would never associate with a father who abandoned their children, ever. Why isn't that mindset prevalent? Well, as you consider this, you know, C.S. Lewis once talked about chestless men. And I do believe that that's part of the problem as well, moving away from the social engineering of the Democrat Party. It's also you're dealing with a case of chestless men and men who have sacrificed their role at the feet of feminism.

But again, that's a choice. That's a choice. I agree, Bill. I've been married for 17 years. I have three children. I'm still leading my family. I believe that men are called to provide and protect to be the priest of their home. But this is typically what we're hearing today as a result of why men have abdicated their role in responsibility and left the home. Because they're fighting with the onslaught of feminism. They're also contending with the- That's just an excuse. I mean, if you go to a prison, and I'm sure you've been, and you talk to these violent criminals,

almost every single one of them had either an abusive father beat the hell out of them or no father. Sure. That's what drives violent crime. No supervision. Once the boy becomes 13, 14, mothers can't control a boy, physically can't control them.

Okay? That's what drives the whole thing. But when these men go out and socialize with other people, there doesn't seem to be any stigma for leaving your kids. I don't get it. I agree with you, Bill.

However, I do think that it needs to be a stigma there. You know, I think the role in the responsibility of the father needs to be made clear and men must hold to it. You know, I'm leading a national campaign where I'm calling men out to the forefront to stand up and to fight for the nuclear family. I can only express to you what I am hearing from men in this culture. However, I do think that it's a part of the fallen nature of man. A man since the beginning has abdicated his role. They've chosen to be, for the lack of better words, out to lunch when they should have been the priest of their home in place standing and leading.

But the only thing that's going to reverse that, government can't reverse that. I think you would agree with me on that. So government can't legislate good parents. They can't. I mean, they can put you in jail if you beat your kid up or you neglect your child. They can take the child away, which is, you know, in a lot of cases, is worse than keeping a child there. So the government can't do it. It's got to be societal pressure on the fathers who are derelict, okay? And it's not there. There's a reason the United States

leads the whole planet and fathers not being present. There's no stigma to it here. That's what has to happen. And because there's so much secularism, they don't believe in God, They don't believe in the Bible. They don't believe in anything, all right? I don't even know what the solution here is. If you know, please tell me. Did you know that at Chevron, you can fuel up on unbeatable mileage and savings? With Chevron rewards, you'll get 25 cents off per gallon on your next five visits.

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Number one, based on publicly available data on competitors, customers, plans vary, SMS available as add-ons. Visit MailChimp.com. Well, I think that the solution, first and foremost, is a Christian home and men bowing to God first and foremost and being laid by...

They won't do it, Pastor, because God doesn't want them to take narcotics, God doesn't want them to be out getting drunk, God doesn't want them to be out doing whatever they're doing. And if they're not going to do it, they're not. Even if Jesus came down tomorrow, if I submit to you that a quarter of the population, we go, I'm not going to do it. Last word.

Well, no, Bill, I hear what you're saying, and I'm wrestling with it myself daily as a council and lead men. However, there are some men out there who want that. They want the tough father figure. They want to have the coach slash athlete relationship. They want to be challenged. They want to be checked and they want to be corrected. So there is a crop of men out there who still want to be a part of the nuclear family and lead their homes and not abdicate their role.

There is. Yeah. But we need more guys like you to go out there and spread that word. But, man, it's tough because the entertainment industry, they don't give a hoot. You know that. All right. Nobody, you know, the politicians are afraid of it because if you say, hey, 50% of African-American homes don't have a dad, you're a racist, okay? So you just say that you're a racist.

And so that's the society that we live in. It's so difficult to get through. But that is the only solution to the social disorder, having responsible parents, not just fathers, but the father has got to be the supervisor of the son. right yes i i agree with that bill a bill um fathers need to take responsibility right biblical responsibility is placed upon the man um if the marriage and the family succeeds it's because the man has done his has done his part to show humility and to guide and to lead his family um and that's most important thing and we're not seeing that across the board but i do believe that revival comes when that takes place. And so as we model this before men and we make masculinity

and fatherhood and protecting the nuclear family, something that's prominent, we'll see a revival there. This is why I fought against. All right. I think the politicians have got to start spreading that message as well. Hey, happy Father's Day, Pastor. Thanks for taking the time to talk to us. We really appreciate it. Likewise, you too. God bless you. Okay. Thank you for listening to the NoSpin News. And edition. To watch the full episodes of the no spin news, visit Bill O'Reilly.com and sign up to become a premium or concierge member. That's Bill O'Reilly.com.

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