Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - No Spin News - Weekend Edition - May 10, 2025

Episode Date: May 10, 2025

Listen to this week's No Spin News interviews with Victoria Coates, Randy Greenberg and Mark Penn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Number one, based on publicly available data on competitors, customers. Plans vary. SMS available as add-ons. Visit MailChimp.com. Welcome to the NoSpin News Weekend Edition. All right, latest Harvard Harris poll run by our pal Mark Pant. Fair poll, 2,286 registered voters, that's a big, big crew. Okay, favorability of Donald Trump as president, approve 48, disapprove 46.

Right or wrong? track of the country, right track 39, wrong, 49. 10 point gap. Next question, do you approve of the Republican Party of disapprove? Approve 51, disapprove 49. Finally, approve or disapprove of the Democratic Party? Approve 42, disapprove 58. Big gap. Joining us now, Miami, Florida is Mark Penn. He's a chairman and CEO of Stagwell, a global marketing firm. And you, you You do oversee this poll, but this poll is different than most other polls. How come? I'm sorry, you went in and out of there.

This poll, your poll, Harvard Harris, is different than most of the other polling. Why? Well, look, you know, we interview voters, and you have to be careful. Well, there are two things. One, you have to differentiate between the polls that tend to interview all adults, because all adults tend to be more negative about everything. And so they're more negative towards all politicians than voter polls. We're a voter poll. The second thing is I made sure to readjust my sample after the election to make sure that it represents that the Republicans now are a bigger party than the

Democrats. That was the result of the election. That's what Gallup found. And I think a lot of the other polls just basically had Harris winning and then stuck with their exact sample. We had it very close, within two points. Either way, we made sure that our samples, we believe, accurately represent the country. And it's not like Donald Trump's in the 70s or anything, but he certainly has continued to keep his constituency, maybe a little bit more. He's got some very high approval ratings on some of the policies he is pursuing, and some things that people are not as happy with.

Okay. And I'm a kind of guy that puts the polls into perspective as far as data is concerned. And you're running honest poll. I've never had a problem with Harvard Harris poll. And I have a problem with Gallup. McLaughlin is always very accurate. And the guys in Brazil are good. Forget their names now, but they were the best on the presidential race.

Do you believe that there are certain outfits that have their thumb, cliche, on the polling scale and want to deliver a bad poll number for Trump. Well, look, I think you've seen the entire media, you know, gang up pretty much on the president and his policies. You've seen it, I mean, look, imports are only 10% of the country and a 10% tariff on 10% of the country is 1%. And oh, my God, did you see dire predictions of complete economic collapse here? All right, tariffs may not be a positive move compared to tax cuts and may have some dislocations.

But relatively speaking, you saw this vast exaggeration of their size and impact. And at the same time, it's the same thing I think that you see in some of these polls. they don't ask the questions, you know, that they don't want the answers to. We're very clear, you know, people support taking those people who are here illegally and committed crimes out of the country. There's no question about that. They may not be for renaming the Gulf of Mexico into Gulf of America, but when it comes to the core immigration policies that the president is pursuing, that's supported by like 70%

of the country, if not more. Well, I think, and you correct me if I'm wrong, which you know more about this than I do, but I've been around a while. When you are being paid to deliver data, you pretty much want to please your pay master. It's a psychological thing. And if there are ways that you can do that,

and you pointed one of them out by keeping an obsolete model, that the Democratic Party has a bigger presence than the Republican Party, when that's not true any longer. But nobody knows whether you're keeping that or not, except you, and you want to get paid, you'll keep the obsolete model. That just makes sense, right? The best coast just got better.

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enjoy with love from Italy by San Pellegrino Chau now Well let me say that the Harvard Harris Bowl is done as a knock of it purely

because I felt that newspaper polls were no longer reflecting the kind of more accurate polling that I did at the Wheat House when I worked with President Clinton because, I mean, I went back and I saw, well, sanctuary cities, would you think it's popular that cities don't pick up the people who are designated and committed crimes and deport them? Well, I found out that no poll had asked that question since 1978, right?

So a lot of the polls don't carry the questions they don't want the answers to. Now, I'm not going to indict the whole profession. And people run honest polls, you know. But your poll is a lot different than 80% of them. Let me ask you one more question, forward looking. The media, as you pointed out, does have a tendency to try to panic the folks. You use the tariff example, the import example, is very low. When the folks hear that and then they see a down day on the stock market or a down week,

they do indeed panic. And that is reflected in the polling, correct? Yeah, I have actually found that the voters are less sensitive to the stock market. They're mostly sensitive to the prices that they pay and to the unemployment rate. And those things very much directly affect politics. Why isn't Trump, you know, in the 50s or 60s, right? Because the most important issue right now is inflation, and people haven't experienced inflation coming down or prices down.

Even though gas and eggs are down somewhat, the president is off on a lot of other issues, particularly immigration, but also on tariffs, on a number of these others. But the voters, I think, are really looking for a demonstration that the economy is going to be strong, that his economic policies are going to work, and that their wages are going to grow faster than prices. Well, that's what he's trying to do, but nobody knows whether that is going to work or not. Mark Penn, thank you very much. We always enjoy talking to you, and we'll speak again soon, I hope.

Thank you. You're listening to the NoSpin News Weekend Edition. Now, there's a new tariff on movies. Okay, let me just set this up in a general sense. The movie industry is collapsed in the United States. There are a bunch of reasons for it, but it is too expensive to make movies in California in Los Angeles. So a lot of the movies now go to Canada, Vancouver, a big set there, Georgia. Okay, they go there.

That's where we shot Killing Reagan. We shot Killing Jesus in Morocco. okay um because of costs and it drives a cost so trump says no i'm going to put a tariff if you if you put if you shoot a movie overseas okay here's the uh proclamation on truth social quote the movie industry is dying very fast death other countries are offering sorts of incentives to draw filmmakers and studios away from the united states Hollywood and many other areas within the USA are being devastated. It's a concerted effort by other nations and therefore a national security threat.

It is in the Department of Commerce. It is, I'm sorry, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda. Therefore, I'm authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% tariff on any and all movies coming into our country that were produced in foreign lands. We want movies made in America again, unquote. Now, I don't know how you do that because some movies are made partially overseas and partially here. But I'll give you a list of things that you obviously probably know.

White Lotus, you know, that HBO shows, but it's pretty successful. Season 1 film, Hawaii, that's USA. Season 2, Italy, season 3, Thailand, and Lord of the Rings, New Zealand. You remember that. Beautiful scenery there. Braveheart, Mel Gibson, Scotland, and Ireland. Remember the sound of music way back? That was all in Austria.

And Wicked was filmed primarily in the United Kingdom. So I don't know what you do here or how you enforce it, but here's something interesting. Governor Newsom of California is supporting this, because California has lost billions of dollars in movie revenue. Joining us now from Los Angeles is Randy Greenberg, who is a producer of films,

the Meg, Meg 2. He also an instructor at UCLA on the business of entertainment. Can you figure this out? I mean, what are they going to do? Slap a tariff on what? The studio or the ticket prices? How are that going to work?

Well, thanks, Bill. Thanks for having me on, and it's a pleasure to be here. That's a good question. I mean, you ask all the right questions is, you know, the reality is, is like, where does this actually exist? You know, tariffs on goods that come into the country through ports of call is one thing, but this is digitally delivered, and, you know, so how do you do that? I think that, I think the idea of tariffs on the entertainment business is an interesting idea. I don't think it's workable in any way, shape, or form.

But I love that the administration's focusing on the entertainment business at the moment. Most of the previous administrations have not focused on it. So the idea of trying to do something to keep production in the United States is great. Yeah, look, I want, I want the movie industry to thrive. I think that Woke killed you. And, you know, that, I just think back to the last James Bond movie. movie. You know, I'm a big James Bond fan. I knew Sean Connery, who was a friend. And that last movie was so bad. I knew I was screaming in the theater. And they ruined it because

it woke. But anyway, I think the only way on this tariff deal. Number one, I think it's symbolic. I don't think Trump's going to do it because it's far too complicated. But you could slap an extra tariff on a film and you'd have to charge more money for the ticket. Or if it goes straight to HBO or Netflix or anything like that, then you charge HBO Netflix who's ever distributing the film a fee that that goes to the U.S. Treasury. That's the only way I can see it happening. I agree with you, but ultimately the consumer is going to pay the price. Yeah, consumer's going to get it right between the eyes. Or the higher or higher subscription fees, right? So the consumers, like, this is going to go right back to the consumer. And if it's a higher

ticket price in theaters, theaters already have an issue, right? Getting more people to come in. So, you know, you give people a pause. Like, yeah, ticket price is a little higher. I, you know, if I wait 17 to 45 days, I can see it on streaming. The Red Hot Clarence event is on right now at Burlington. And I'm excited for the markdowns. It's all about savings on top of savings throughout the store.

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grade at 30,000 feet. Upgrade your next trip. Book now at alaskaair.com. You know, I'm already paying for that platform already, so I'll just wait. No, there's no doubt about it, but it will hurt the studios too, because, you know, the fewer people that go to see the movie and the theaters, the fewer, the less revenue comes into the movie studio and creating a lot of chaos. Now, I think, and I could be wrong, there's also a measure. because John Voight was involved with this. Do you know John? I don't know, John.

Okay, I know him pretty well. And I always like spending time with John, but he's an arch conservative, and he doesn't like the liberal Hollywood culture at all. And he talks to President Trump, I know that. And this might be a little payback here for Hollywood treating Trump so poorly and financing Kamala Harris' campaign.

Most of that money and went into her campaign came out of Hollywood. I just suspect there might be a little payback here, Randy. What do you think? You know, look, Bill, I try to stay out of politics. I'm a producer. I'm a storyteller. My interest is in telling a great story

and giving audiences, you know, something to watch that entertains them, takes them away from current issues that they're dealing with. You know, they get to dream of going somewhere that they've never been before. As a kid growing up in Omaha, Nebraska, that's what I did.

I went to the movie theater all the time, was one of the first AMC multiplexes, and I saw productions of movies that were all over the world. Sure, and most of us have had that experience, but I think because you live in Los Angeles and you're in the industry, and I don't expect you to say anything one way or the other.

You've got to do business out there. You know I'm right. right. You know there's a little payback here. But I don't expect this to come to fruition. But could be wrong. I have been before. I can't really remember when, Randy, but I know I have. And we really appreciate you coming on today. Thank you. This is the NoSpin News Weekend Edition. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other American economists are meeting with the Chinese in Geneva, nice town, Geneva, Switzerland. Beautiful. This weekend, May 9th to 12th, and they're

talking about averting a trade war, which President Trump thinks will happen. They're going to invert it. Okay. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. It's my job to report to you what I learned. Joining us now from Washington, Victoria Coates, former deputy national security advisor to Donald Trump on his first term, now works for the Heritage Foundation, Vice President of National Security. Boy, that's an impressive resume you got. There, Ms. Coates, very good. So, look, I don't know what she and Putin want. Do you know what they want?

Well, good to be with you, Bill. And if you throw the Ph.D. in Italian Renaissance art history on my resume, then you really have quite the confection going on. I think we see what's going on with Putin and G really over the last three years playing out in real time. And as I look back at this, this is one of the big geopolitical changes that President Trump confronts now that is very different from what we had in 2017 to 2021. Because this all came about after the fall of Afghanistan, I think both G and Putin, realized they had real weakness in the White House and that they could explore what they call their partnership with no without limits. And that was instigated, I think, in Beijing, just weeks

before the tanks rolled into Ukraine, no coincidence there. And they are trying to set up a poll that will be in competition with the United States and ultimately in their minds defeat the United States and our allies. So it's not a natural partnership. They have not historically liked each other, Russia and China particularly well. It's something we've been able to, to split apart in the past, but right now they have a huge vested, both military and economic mutual interests that they have built over these years. And so I'm really concerned going forward that it's not just going to be them, but there are two other sort of junior partners around in North Korea, creating a lot of trouble for the United States.

All right. When you say defeat the United States, they're not going to defeat the United States militarily, if there is a war, then it will be mutual destruction. Everyone will die. Economically, Russia is a third world country when it comes to economics. They have no consumer power at all. China can't send its stuff into Russia. They don't make any money. They have to deal with the United States if they want to keep their economy afloat. So I don't understand why Xi and Putin, two tyrants, totalitarians, they want to defeat the United States. They want to defeat the United States. How? How would they do that? Well, I think they saw a much, a much straighter path towards that in the previous administration. And in terms of goods, the way

they're setting that up right now, Bill, is Russians have to, with the revenues that China gives them for natural resources, the Russians have to buy Chinese goods. So their imports of Chinese goods have gone to the historic level. Yeah, but it's all energy stuff. It's not stuff made. They're not buying the hats, the shirts, the sneaks. There's no disposable income. And plus, the Chinese don't want rubles, Victoria. They want oil and gas. And so what they're doing is forcing the Russians to purchase their stuff for the oil and gas.

It's almost like a barter arrangement. Now, I agree with you. We are currently dominant in a lot of areas. We are very concerned at the Heritage Foundation, however, about the historic military buildup that's going on in China. It dwarfs a number of things that are going on, or historically, in terms of military buildup. That's why the president's budget is so important because he is talking about both reducing the waste and bloat and unnecessary activities in our DOD, but investing in the kind of things that China is.

That didn't happen under President Biden, and it's now starting to happen under President Trump. And we look forward to working closely with Congress to help him implement that, but that is necessary work. Because if we stay on the trajectory that we're on, I mean, China has a bigger Navy than we do at this point. That's a fact. But again, yeah, I get that and I understand that. And I know the threat to Taiwan. And I'm going to China in three weeks. And I see what they're doing with the military.

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intimidation thing. Let me ask you one more question based on history. It used to be that Mao Zizong and the Soviet leaders wanted to take over the world and make everybody communist, okay? Well, Russia's not even communist anymore. It's more totalitarian fascist than communists, although they don't respect private property. China hardcore communist, is Is that still in play? Do they still want to make everybody communist? Well, I want to talk to you when you get back from your trip. That sounds fascinating. But I think in this case, you're seeing more of a marriage of convenience rather than a likeness between these two countries. I agree with you. There's no cultural bond at all. And they cut each other's throats if they had to.

But the end game is what I am still not. And when I go, I'm supposedly going to give an address to She's guys at the Beijing Club. Have you ever been to the Beijing Club? I don't even know there was a Beijing club. Maybe I'll play a little racquetball before I give my speech. But I'm going to try to find out what, you know, then I've got to tell me the truth. I understand that. But I'm not seeing, you know, I understood what Hitler wanted.

I understood what the Stalin wanted. Mao, I got it all. I knew what Ho Chi Minh wanted. I don't know what she wants. It seems that China could improve itself domestically, and I know he doesn't care about his own people, if they would just calm it all down. And Putin into Ukraine, for what? for what? That does you no good at all. I'll give you the last word.

Well, I think it doesn't from our perspective. I think from Gis's perspective, it's a distraction for the United States, something that's not really in our vital national security interests, but into which we've poured a ton of money and material over the last three years. So I think he's fine with that. I think this is more of a death of a thousand cuts kind of thing for the United States and reducing our influence to expand theirs. That's, again, why this tariff situation is so important. For economics, for power, for, you know, you know where I'm going with this. It's just not clearly defined. But we appreciate your point of view, and I will talk to you when I get back in China if I'm not in a gulag somewhere. We'll come get you out. Thank you.

I appreciate that, Victoria, very nice. And thanks for talking to us today. listening to the no-spin news weekend edition to watch the full episodes of the no-spin news visit bill o'reilly dot com and sign up to become a premium or concierge member that's bill o'reilly dot com sign up and start watching today