Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - No Spin News - Weekend Edition - October 12, 2024

Episode Date: October 12, 2024

Listen to this week's No Spin News interviews with Amber Duke, John McLaughlin, Sid Rosenberg and Joe Bastardi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the NoSpin News Weekend Edition. All right, let's bring in Donald Trump's pollster. A guy named John McLaughlin. You've seen him before in the No Spin News, Straight Shooter, CEO and part of McLaughlin Associates. Okay. Now, you have internal polling, which Trump pays you for. And what's the latest?

We don't release it. I know, but I'm your pal. You're just telling me, no one else, no one's going to hear it. But if I tell you, you'll tell President Trump, and then it'll leak. I won't tell President Trump. Actually, yeah, we feel pretty good. By the way, right now we feel cautiously optimistic. And let me tell you, compared to 2016 when Hillary was at, you know, she was ahead this point, like, by five or six points.

And, you know, you had polls back then that had her up seven or whatever. And then we talked about the Hillary lot. They had won CBS on October 60th. They had her up 11. NBC had her up seven. That was November 6 right before the election. And we ended up pulling out an electoral college victory. This is in 2016.

So Trump's numbers are stronger. How about 20, though? 20 was worse. You had the Biden blue wave, remember? And at this point, they had Biden up 51 to 42 in the national popular vote. Now, granted, it was four points. But even then, you had October 11th, you had polls, so areas up 5242. You had double-digit leads.

And NBC again, had them up on Halloween, October 31st. It was 52-42. Economist, You-gov does CBS polling out. They had them up 10 to 5343. So the national popular vote, to the extent, is. that's, you know, related to the electoral college, you know, you had these big weeds and they were trying to, I think they were trying to suppress our vote. Okay.

Yeah, you know my mantra is people believe what they want to believe, all right? You know that. I made it quite clear that we live in that kind of a country now, where a lot of people, facts don't matter. I want to believe it. I'm going to believe it. So I'm of the mind because I think Trump, thinks he's ahead. Now, he didn't tell me that directly, but I'm getting that impression,

not only from the former president, but from people close in his inner circle. They think they're ahead that they're going to win. Is that what you're getting? Because you work for them. Well, we are cautiously optimistic, but we're running like underdogs. I tell you the thing that happened with the hurricanes, because you're talking about what we're afraid of is censorship. it. We lost the race in 2020 because when the story came out about the Hunter Biden laptop, they censored it. Yeah, I know. Censored. Right. So you can't censor a hurricane, John. Here it is, you know. Can't do that. But they were censoring the parts about the money from FEMA wasn't there because they've been taking care of illegal immigrants. And, you know, remember the

coverage that you had during Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy, where Sandy, you know, was Obama coming in with the money and the hugs and everything like that. And you've got a situation where Trump went into Valdesda a week ago today before Biden got to Georgia, before Biden got to North Carolina, before Kamala Harris, she was flying back after a fundraiser on the West Coast. And people were suffering. And now we've got to make sure a lot of those parts, a lot of those parts of those states are Republican areas. We've got to make sure they can vote. And then in Florida, God bless the people down there

where Governor DeSantis is telling people to prepare to get out of the way, it's going to be bad. And, you know, you're going to hit plenty of Republican areas in a Republican state. It is, but it's not an overwhelming Republican state like Mississippi or Alabama, Florida. Look, I don't think these storms as bad as they are. are going to affect people going to the polls.

I just don't. In four weeks, you're going to have some stability down there. Now, if Biden diverted money away from Hurricane Relief to another pet project, I want to see the data on that. And that'll be huge if that happens. Last question for you. You know real clear politics keeps an average, your daily average of everything. They got today electoral college 281 to 257, Trump wins.

So you need 270 to win. So, and when you look at the latest polling on the swing states, most of them Trump is winning by one or two. Is that what you have? That is very close. But you know what? You should also, our electoral vote total would go up if you put in Nevada or they don't have us winning Michigan and Wisconsin. And it's really close to it. Trump was there four times in the last week in Wisconsin.

But they don't have Michigan and Wisconsin. in our column. They don't have Nevada in our column. And they do have Pennsylvania. It's too close in those states. And Pennsylvania, too. That's not in your column, is it? Yeah, that one's in the column. That's why we're at 281. Oh, it's all right. Okay. Yeah, yeah. And, but you know what? But it's still close, but they're, those early mail-in ballots from, in the four states that are in the targeted battleground states, they're coming in now, but they're not coming as high as they did in 2020. Democrats still have an advantage, but

Republicans, I think the early in-person vote's going to be high. And that means like mid-October to late October, we really have to be pushing our vote in the early in-person voting because one more question. Do you get data when people send in the ballots? Do both campaigns know which way those ballots are leaning? Yes, from when the secretary of states in those states make it public. So there is public. But that's only made public after election day, right? Not before. No, they get counts. Depending upon the state, different states are really good at it, and some aren't. So they'll release early. So on this date, say, let's say October 26th in Pennsylvania, here's what the mail and ballots are showing. That's possible. You might get that data? Yes. Both campaigns have that data right now, and they're pushing people who have, say, requested absentees that we think of Trump owes to go vote.

Okay. And the same from the Democrats. They do their side. Fascinating. All right. We're going to check in with you in two weeks, and then once more before Election Day. And we really appreciate John. I sent John a free sign book that he can sell on eBay for a lot of money if he wants to. I'm reading your book, can you tell me which president was court martial? Johnson, Andrew Johnson. No. Who? No. He went through an impeachment hearing. Who? Abraham Lincoln was court martial. In the Black Hawk War? You got it. Exactly. His troops ran. Okay. Right. But that was a little obscure for us. He kind of overcame that.

You just had to. By the way, I think he was 12. Let's face it, the U.S. economy is under stress. National debt rising, trade war, shaking the markets. And meanwhile, China is dumping the dollar and stockpiling gold. That's why I protected my savings with physical gold and silver through the only dealer I trust, American Hartford Gold. And you can do this. Get precious metals delivered to your door or place in a tax advantage, gold IRA. They'll even help you roll over your existing IRA or 401K, tax and penalty free. With billions in precious metals delivered thousands of five-star reviews and an A-plus from the Better Business Bureau,

You can trust American Hartford Gold as I do. Please call 866-326-55-7576 or text bill to 99-88-99. Again, that's 866-3-2-6-5576-56-5576 or text bill to 998899. Hey, I'm Caitlin Becker, the host of the New York Postcast, and I've got exactly what you need to start your weekdays. Every morning, I'll bring you the stories that matter, plus the news people actually talk about, the juicy details in the worlds of politics, business, pop culture, and everything in between. It's what you want from the New York Post wrapped up in one snappy show. Ask your smart speaker to play the NY Postcast podcast. Listen and subscribe on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

But it was, he got sentenced to carrying a wooden sword. There you go. I got sentenced for that the other day. I had a carry a wooden sword around. All right, John. Thanks very much. It's a great book. Seriously, it's a great book because you got a lot of it.

I appreciate. A guy like you knows everything about politics. If you really liked it, that's a nice compliment. I appreciate it. You're listening to the NoSpin News Weekend Edition. All right, here in the United States, there were protests today, but they're all anti-Israel. They say pro-Palestinian, but that's not what they are. Okay, they're anti-Israel.

Because Israel is taking it to Hamas and Hezbollah, that and those terror agencies, control the population. Unfortunately, innocent people get killed. All right, but if you look back about our history, Sherman's March to the Sea, look it up in the Civil War, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Dresden, Tokyo. I mean, you know, bad guys have to be rooted out, and sometimes that happens. I'm not justifying anything. I'm just telling you with the historical record.

So in Boston, Massachusetts, they shut down storage drive, which is one of the main highways. D.C., some guys sent himself on fire. In London, where I was, when I went to the jet game, there was a big demonstration, but I have to say the Metropolitan Police in England did a very good job containing. And they're all socialists and communists because they had the signs. You know, they were all not only anti-Israel, but very, very, very far left. So join us now is a guy who I talk with frequently on WABC radio. That is our flagship radio outfit here on Bill O'Reilly.com and the O'SPen News. Sid Rosenberg is a legend, number one by far in New York, dominates in the morning.

That's a mystery. I have no idea how that happened, but he does, and he's doing great. He is in Jerusalem tonight, been there for a few days, going to stay till next Sunday. So I'm glad you're safe. I didn't know they had a tanning salon in Jerusalem, but I see that you have used it. But what, if you can tell my audience, you're there, you're walking around, what do you see? Is it really tense? Yes, one more answer, it is really tense.

Now, I am in Jerusalem tonight, our hotel room is in Jerusalem, and tomorrow, Bill, we'll be doing the show live from Jerusalem. But today, on October the 7th, we decided to try to get to Gaza as close as we can to where all the devastation happened a year ago today. And we got there. We did our short radio station in a little town called Cerroch, which is about 15 minutes at the moment walking from the Gaza border. It is right there, Bill. In fact, all the way down there, we passed the site of the Nobel Music Festival. There were hundreds, if not thousands of people gathering their family members. of the kids that were killed a year ago.

We passed by all the other kibbutzim. Today I wrote, for example, Bill, they burned down the police station. They killed all 70 cops inside that neighborhood. So that Kibbutz team was devastated, and that's where we worked today. But to give you a sense of the question was intense. Before the show started this morning,

it's about 20 people in this little building, 10 men, 10 women that were helping us get ready for the show. There were strangers, but lovely people. and we heard a series of booms very loud I could tell you my body shook and I'm not a slim guy then we heard sirens and then some young girl literally ran grabbed my arm said seed seed let's go

she literally dragged me into a bomb shelter where we spent the next three minutes 10 men and 10 women nestled against each other while the bomb threat went away and I have to tell you to start the day like that is a bit unnerving and these people go through that in that area sometimes as many as 20 times a day.

So in one day, I've been down to Gaza. I've seen all the spots that were affected a year ago, and I've been in a bomb shelter after five bombs were detonated overhead. Whenever you're in a war zone, I've been in a number of them, there's a feeling that pervades. In Israel, Netanyahu, obviously, is the leader of the country. but not all Israelis are on board with him. Is that kind of internal dissent visible?

Oh, it is. It's, you know, we talk about Trump Darrangement Syndrome Bill back in the States. And by the way, I have to commend President Trump. He called into my show today. I think it's a big deal on October the 7th. Yeah, that was nice. That was nice of them.

Yes, and he actually spent 28 minutes. They want them to do 15. He spent 28. But Trump derangement syndrome is here and alive in the United States. BB arrangement syndrome, they call it here in Israel. And Bill, they will get hundreds, sometimes thousands of people gathering in the square in Tel Aviv like they wouldn't Times Square. A lot of those folks are hostage families that will never forgive BB for A, what happened,

and B, not saving their loved ones. So it is a crowd that is a bit split, but I will tell you this, talking to a lot of people who cover politics here in Israel every day, not just while I'm here, if there was an election tomorrow, The thought is that for the fifth time in six elections, BB would win and would win relatively easily. So with all the negative things we see and hear about Trump in the United States and BB here in Israel, it looks like the fact is both of those guys would win

Trump coming up in less than a month and BB coming up next year. Is there any anger directed toward the Biden administration for its, you know, they try to float above it. You know, they, to their credit, they're giving Israel weapons and money, but they're not behind Israel. You know what I'm talking about. Is there any anger directed from the Israeli citizens to the Biden-Harris administration? You're all amazing questions. To be completely honest, I'm not being, I'm not patronizing you.

It's a lot like the United States bill. look i'm very angry with the biden harris administration i'm a republican jew from new york it's the same thing here uh when he talked to the liberal democrat jews uh they're going to vote for uh if they were here they would vote for kamala harris and they still consider biden and harris a decent administration and pro-israel uh if you talk to the conservative israelians here they hate those people i do believe though that over the past couple of months bill that there have been do with people that would have told you a year ago they liked Biden and Harris and have now completely seen in mind they have everybody that I speak to here basically blamed Biden and

Harris for what has happened here why because Iran is uh is the threat it is all about Iran whether it's Hamas down in the south Hamas and hespola in Judea and samaria you call that the West Bank and Hamas up north by Lebanon not Hamas is Hezbollah these are all Iranian proxies So right now, it's not really Hamas, it's Iran that is attacking Israel in three different fronts on a daily basis. And they know, like we know, that the Biden-Harris administration gave them money, looted all the restrictions and sanctions Donald Trump put in place. So the answer is yes, they're angry and they do blame the Biden-Harris administration as they should. And those sanctions that the Biden-Harris administration lessened, that was a terrible geopolitical. unforced era. And every time that Harris has asked about it, she doesn't answer. She tells you

she was raised in a middle class family. That's what you get. All right, Sid, now, stay safe. I know you're a macho man and all that, but stay safe. We have your back with the Mets. Jets is a little tough. We had them with the Mets and the Yanks. And I look forward to you coming back in one piece, all right. Power, politics, and the people behind the headlines. I'm Miranda Devine, New York Post columnist, and the host of the brand new podcast, Podforce One. Every week I'll sit down for candid conversations

with Washington's most powerful disruptors, lawmakers, newsmakers, and even the president of the United States. These are the leaders shaping the future of America and the world. Listen to Podforce One with me, Miranda Devine, every week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. You don't want to miss an episode. Hey, it's Sean Spicer from the Sean Spicer Show podcast, reminding you to tune into my show every day to get your daily dose inside the world of politics. President Trump and his team are shaking up Washington like never before, and we're here to cover it from all sides, especially on the topics of the mainstores. stream media won't. So if you're a political junkie on a late lunch or getting ready for the

drive home, new episodes of the Sean Spicer Show podcast drop at 2 p.m. East Coast every day. Make sure you tune in. You can find us at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. I appreciate that. And don't get yourself, Bill. I check my phone. I'm seven hours ahead here in Israel. So for example, the Cowboy Steelers game last night didn't end here until this morning. But I'm on the phone at 3 o'clock in the morning checking my Mets scores. And I know the Giants speak to see talks yesterday. So I may be 6,000 miles away, Bill O'Reilly, but I know what's going out of my sports team back home. All right, Sid Rosenberg. I'll talk you on Thursday on your program in the morning. See you, Sid. Stay safe, please.

This is the No Spin News Weekend Edition. All right. Join us now from Washington, D.C. is the editor, Washington editor of the Spectator, which is a right-leaning magazine. Amber Duke. She is the author. author of the book Snowflakes Revolt, How Woke Millennials Hijacked the American Media, and since Ms. Duke is an expert, she researched this book on the media, I want to get her impressions of what has happened, 60 Minutes, Colbert, The View, Howard Stern. Did any of that matter at all to the country? No, it didn't.

And in fact, I think it actually made things worse for Kamala Harris and her campaign, because, as you pointed out, that disastrous answer she gave on the view, that is already being cut up into Trump ads that they are going to be running in the swing states. They just released the first cut of it today. And we also see that not a lot of people are really even tuning in. So even though Americans say they want to know more about Kamala Harris, about a fifth of voters say they're not really sure what exactly it is she stands for, the more they see of her, the less interested they get.

And so the audiences continue to shrink. She has waited way too late in the game to be doing this kind of media blitz. If we look at the call her daddy podcast interview bill, that got about 400,000 views. Similar episodes on that podcast that performed better than Kamala Harris. The current vice president are things like Leah's Love Island Tell All and Megan Fox's plastic surgery story. If her campaign is looking at those numbers, they have to be very, very concerned. Okay.

It does get out, though, Amber. You know that. It's all over the place and people cruise into different areas. But they don't get any definition about who Kamala Harris is. But I think that's what the Democratic Party wants. They don't want the voter. Yeah, they don't want the voter to know how far left this woman is. And the second thing is that she's a machine politician.

She doesn't really understand the world. She doesn't have creative problem-solving abilities. She's a machine politician. He's always been that way, promoted by the Democratic machine in California, and then into Washington in the national democratic machine. And you can see that all along the line. She doesn't have the discipline to figure out, here's the problem, and here's how to solve it. So they don't want a definition of her, correct? That's true.

That's a strategy. I think the question is whether it's a good strategy. And based on the fact that she is even doing this much media 30 days out from the election, when originally they wanted to keep her as shielded from the press as possible for good reason, because clearly she's not capable of thinking on her feet. That suggests to me that the internals of the campaign, meaning the internal polling, is much worse than what we're seeing in the public polls. They realize that she's got to make up some ground somewhere.

And her campaign has been telling places like New York Magazine and the New Yorker that there's, strategy in North Carolina is to get rural Republicans to vote for her. That sounds like desperation. Obviously, you're not going to be able to cut into Trump's base as Kamala Harris in 2019 or 2024. It doesn't matter which one. She's already struggling with the Democratic base in terms of black men and Hispanic men. The strategy is there. They don't want her to be defined, but is it working? No, I don't think so. Okay, final point. We just learned before airtime that Vice President Harris is taking the lead on Hurricane Milton. She will be calling in to CNN, all right, and I'm not criticizing CNN because if she said, look, I'll call into the O'Reilly broadcast, and we reached five times as many people as CNN, all right, I would say, sure, have her call in.

But she's going to take the lead about explaining what the Biden-Harris administration is doing to help with Hurricane Milton. She's making the call in, not Biden. So it seems to me now that the White House has decided that she's the president as of tomorrow, because that's when she's going to start. Does that stack with you? That's definitely what they're trying to do. They want to give the perception of her having executive experience, but the problem that's obvious to so many people is what has she been doing over the past three and a half years. Is this the first time that she's made an attempt to call for to Governor Ronda Santis before a hurricane? Because I can promise you, Florida has had plenty of hurricanes before Milton.

I mean, arguably none is severe. But now she is going to stand on the tarmac and accuse him of playing politics. where was Kamala Harris when Hurricane Helene hit? She was doing a rally in Las Vegas on Sunday night after there had already been six tornadoes spotted across southeastern North Carolina. She didn't fly back into the White House until Monday afternoon after she taped that call her daddy podcast.

So her in-person briefing was basically three days after the hurricane touchdown in Florida and moved its way up through the southern United States. The idea that she's going to run point on Milton is ludicrous. All right. most she's going to do it all right amber we appreciate it check out her book the snowflakes result how woke millennials hijacked the american media amber duke you're listening to the no spinoos weekend edition let's bring in my personal weatherman yes i have a personal weatherman can you

believe that and i have to because i go so many places and do so many things and the guy you're looking at is Joe Bistarty. He's in Pennsylvania. He's a big shot in the weather world. He hosts a show called The Wise Guys of Weather on radio stations across the country. And okay, Bistarty, so give it to me straight. Did the media overhype Milton? Well, I don't think so. I think that it did what a storm of that nature was supposed to do. is four. Now, see, one of the problems is that the Sapper Simpson scale is very much outdated. We've been using what we call a power and impact scale bill, which just doesn't take into account the wind at the center, but how far out the wind goes and how strong it is away from

the center. So what you had what Milton was, you had, you had category three damage in a relatively small area, but you have a widespread area of Florida with category one and two damage, and that piles up. So the metric is Hurricane Ian a couple of years ago, right, for how much damage was done to Florida. This went through the, you know, Ian hit further south, but came through the I4 corridor and came off the Florida East Coast. So we'll have something to compare it to as far as how bad it was. But this, I hear this after every storm. It's either, oh, it was worse than what they said or whatever. I just have to concern myself, what did we tell our clients? What am I telling the public and what did I do in front of my Heavenly Father rather than pay attention to

all this other stuff that goes okay and you were fairly you were fairly accurate in your assessment now Florida is in the danger zone and so is Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coast this is not ever going to stop these hurricanes have been going on since Ponce de Leon showed up in Florida looking for the fountain of youth and he got wind in his face and said yeah maybe it's not here Would that discourage you the storms that we have every year from moving down to Florida or the southeast? Well, you went through a long hurricane drought in Florida. We haven't had a major hurricane hit southeast Florida, for instance, for Miami or West Palm Beach, since 1992 with Hurricane Andrew. New England is in an unbelievable.

Long Island, New England's in an unbelievable hurricane drought. We used to have one every six or seven years. We haven't had one since 1991. That's amazing to think about that. So what happens is you see the cyclical nature of this. 2020 was a hurricane season like this. 2005, the congregation of tracks was around the Gulf of Mexico. Our December 7th forecast on Weatherbell, and I put it on Twitter,

said a hurricane season from hell was going to occur in 2024, centered where you see it now. I don't have a crystal ball. I just look at weather patterns. how they evolve. So this hurricane season so far is no surprise. But you have to remember that while one area is getting it, they're large areas that aren't getting anything at all. We're at record low levels in the Pacific Ocean in a lot of places, for instance. And I just brought up New England where you live in Long Island. It's amazing. I thought Henri was going to try to be the hurricane and it fell apart a few years ago. Yeah, Joe was at my house when I was coming in.

But we had Sandy, which was terrible. But that hit New Jersey. No, that hit New York, Joe. Believe me, that caused a lot of, but look, I have one more question for you. And so far, you've been very factual and you're very accurate, and that's why you're my personal weatherman. Are the storms that we are seeing here in the United States more ferocious than they used to be? They get just as strong at the center, and they get stronger.

They may get stronger faster because they're approaching the coast in a certain way, which causes the air to converge more toward the center, but they're smaller. They're much smaller than they used to be. Carla, for instance, that Dan Rather broke his, you know, into the media business with Carla. That gave Hurricane Force wins to all the Texas coast. Harvey, also a category 400 miles wide. Betsy v. Ida, 1944 hurricane, 500-mile-wide diameter of hurricanes. So what happens is, is it Steve Carlton when he was throwing 100 miles an hour

or when he had the wicked slider, either way, it depends on how you look at it. Either way you're going to get it. But there's no, you know, a lot of these people hype. We're now super stormed territory. Are we done now? Is that it for the hurricane season this year? No, I don't believe so. We've been telling our clients there'll be one more attempt coming out, probably coming

out of the Western Caribbean, the last week of October, first week of November. then we'll close it. What's fascinating is that a late hurricane season like this usually means cold in December in the run-up to Christmas. So that might be interesting. There's a reason to that, we won't get into it until I have to tell you you're going to get a foot of snow at your house. Yeah, please call me.

All right. Joe, it's already, everybody. Appreciate it, Joe. Thanks. Good to see you. Thank you for listening to the NoSpin News Weekend Edition. of the No Spin News, visit Bill O'Reilly.com and sign up to become a premium or concierge member. That's Bill O'Reilly.com. Sign up and start watching today.