Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis - The Debt Problem and President Trump's Budget Proposal, Mark Penn Weighs in on Polling Accuracy, & Mexico Rejects Trump’s Offer For Help

Episode Date: May 6, 2025

Tonight's rundown: Hey BillOReilly.com Premium and Concierge Members, welcome to the No Spin News for Monday, May 5, 2025. Stand Up for Your Country.  Talking Points Memo: Bill explains Donald Trump's 2026 budget proposal, highlighting the planned spending increases and cuts. What Bill said on NewsNation about Trump’s plan to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status. Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell, joins the No Spin News to discuss the latest Harvard/HarrisX Poll and whether certain outfits are trying to deliver bad poll numbers for Trump. Why did Mexico’s President reject Trump’s offer to target cartels with US troops? Smart Life: The Global Post is offering 50% off for new BillOReilly.com subscribers. Final Thought: Check out Bill's 100 Days of Trump NewsNation Special.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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New customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy. Taxes and Feas Extra. Seamintmobile.com. Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. Welcome to the No Spin News from Monday, May 5th, 2025. Stand Up for Your Country. Another day, another controversy, or five or six or seven. It never stops. And we'll deal with many of them, not all of them.

Some of them are just stupid and a waste of time. But perhaps the most important thing the federal government is doing right now affects you directly. It's about your money. It's about how much money you give to the feds and tax revenue. It's about how much money you keep to survive. Okay. And that with the tax bill and with the budget bill, and it's very hard to cover these things. because they're boring. They're dull. It's like being an accounting class. But I promise I will make

this interesting. And if I don't, you can mock me. Bill at bill o'Reilly.com. Name in town. All right, talking points memo is about money. So here is President Trump's budget proposal. Keep in mind, the federal debt, how much this country owes is $37 trillion. A record, a dangerous level. Why is it dangerous? Because if people who borrow money from the United States begin calling in the loans, selling bonds, selling securities, that kind of thing, government is not going to be able to cover it. Okay?

And that puts us into a terrible economic circumstance. That's why debt is dangerous. it corresponds to your own house if you owe an astronomical amount of money and you can't pay it back you're going to get it right between the eyes it's just a matter when not if okay so president Biden was the biggest spending chief executive in history by far he did not care how much money the government spent. He used all of the programs to buy votes. That is in stone fact. Anybody denies that they are lying to you? Here's the kick. Biden okayed nearly $5 trillion of new spending over a 10-year period while he was in office that the government couldn't cover.

Okay. Now, Trump comes in and he slash and burns. You know, Musk, you know, Doge. That's just the pittance. Okay. That's just, you know, it's symbolic. So Trump wants to cut $163 billion this year, 2006 fiscally, from the domestic spending. No cuts for Social Security and Medicare despite what the opposition says. says. But there would be caps on how much the federal government sends to the states to pay Medicaid. That's what these charlatans are giving you. They're going to cut Medicaid because they want to cap it. All right? Why do they want to cap it? Come back to me. They want to cap it because there are no work requirements in 49 out of the 50 states to get Medicaid. So a sane system, honest system would say, if you are able-bodied, you have to look for a job to qualify for this Medicaid stuff. Not if you have four kids or you're a single mom or you're sick. No. But if you're

an able-bodied man, you've got a look or woman with no children. Only one state has that. You know what state it is? Georgia. 49 don't have it. So the layabouts can just get free medical care. Trump wants to cap it. Okay. So when you hear Trump wants to cut Medicaid, that is the deception. All right. Here are the federal departments that Trump wants to cut. Go. Commerce Department, 17%. Education 15. Energy 9. Environmental Protection Agency, a whopping 55%. That's the green stuff. Health and human services. 26%. RFK Jr. says that's because there's redundancy. Five people doing the same thing. Department of housing and urban development, 44%. Labor Department 35, NASA 24. Okay. Got it?

Those are the cuts that Trump wants. Democrats want no cuts for anything. They're happy with the $58 trillion. debt of 57 trillion. I'm sorry, 36. I keep saying 50. It's 37 trillion dollar debt. That's what it is. Democrats want no cuts. None. Just want to keep running it up. Okay. Here is the budget increase schedule for Trump. Parven of Homeland Security, 65%. That's deportations. And now the Trump administration is going to offer migrants a thousand bucks to get out of here. We'll do that tomorrow. I want to look at the proposal. Defense Department 13, that's because China and Russia. Transportation, 6%. That's more air traffic controllers. Department of Veterans Affair, 4%. That meets the inflation rate for veterans' health benefits. Okay. Now, again, this is not going to get

a single vote in the Democratic precincts. Roll the tape. The budget that the president put out that we just are reviewing now is one that is really of shame. A budget should be a statement of our national values. What is important to us as a nation should be reflected in that budget. It should be a budget of investing in our future for our children and the rest. Yeah, our children invest, yeah, but with no limits at all. Now, the final part of this talking points memo is the press will seize upon all the cuts to give you sob stories because people will suffer. They will.

When you cut the programs, people are going to be left out. People who are getting government subsidies aren't going to get them. They're not going to be happy. I'm going to this. This person is going to starve to death. And you will see that constantly on the corporate media. Okay? Well, what is the alternative?

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Donald Trump also wants to knock out all federal money to PBS and PR and take the tax subsidy away from Harvard University, okay? So Harvard's supposed to be, you know, a nonprofit and all of that, and they get a tax credit for it, huge tax credits. And Harvard, Trump doesn't like Harvard and says, no, no more tax credits for you, NPR and PBS, you're on your own. It's going to have trouble with the NPR PBS. Harvard would be able to knock that out. But Congress is in charge of the money. And when it gets into court, and it will, Harvard's already suing.

The federal judge, if you follow the way we're structured, might go, hey, look, Congress has got to okay, taking money away from PBS and NPR. And there was a bill that was supposed to be introduced by that Loon, Marjorie, Taylor, Green, but I haven't seen the bill. That would be the way to do it, have Congress say, no, pass the law, much easier.

Anyway, here's what I said on the News Nation special about Donald Trump's first 100 days. Part of Trump's war on woke has now been a war on Harvard University. You are alma mater. Do they deserve it? Yeah, they do. And I'll tell you something else I haven't really made public. So I'm in touch with a lot of people at Harvard. And I said, look, I'll broker a deal with you guys and the president if you want me to.

But I said, if you want me to do it, you're going to have to agree to change. You can't have 82% of your faculty defining themselves as left, far left. And that's the rub. You can't have tax money going into ideological concerns. You can't. And that's why Trump will win that. All right. I just want to throw in one more thing about your money.

You heard if you saw the town hall on News Nation with me taking apart, Carville and the Massachusetts Congressperson, Oakshutsch, Lush. All these wild things about the stock market and trillion dollars disappearing. As of Friday, the S&P is up. 0.28% from liberation day. So all of the stock losses have been recovered. Maybe not in your portfolio, certainly not in mine. I've got some stocks that got a hammer and they haven't come back. Okay, but generally speaking, it's a wash at this point. Bill O'Reilly here, I recently sat down with President Trump in Florida, and I can tell you he is laser focused on helping Americans prosper during his second term. That's why I have joined forces with Alexander Green.

investment strategists at the Oxford Club for a special presentation called the rebirth of the American dream. In this groundbreaking event, you will discover why Donald Trump's policies could trigger an economic boom, how the AI revolution could help create more millionaires than at any other time in history, details on six specific stocks that could soar during Trump's presidency, and most importantly, how you can achieve the American Dream. Now, I followed Alex's work from more than 20 years, and he spotted some of the best performing stocks of our time. So, please don't miss this opportunity. Visit Trump's American dream.com. Trump's American Dream.com. All right, latest Harvard Harris Poll, run by our pal Mark

Pant. Fair poll, 2,286 registered voters. That's a big, big crew. Okay. favorability of Donald Trump as president, approve 48, disapprove 46. Right or wrong track of the country, right track 39, wrong, 49, 10 point gap. Next question, do you approve of the Republican Party of disapprove? Approve 51, disapprove 49. Finally, approve or disapprove of the Democratic Party, approve 42, disapprove 58, big gap. Joining us now, Miami, Florida. is Mark Penn. He's the chairman and CEO of Stagwell, a global marketing firm. And you do oversee this poll. But this poll is different than most other polls. How come?

I'm sorry, you went in and out of there. This poll, your poll, Harvard Harris, is different than most of the other polling. Why? Well, look, you know, we interview voters and you have to be careful. Well, there are two things. One, you have to differentiate between the polls that tend to interview all adults, because all adults tend to be more negative about everything. And so they're more negative towards all politicians than voter polls. We're a voter poll. The second thing is, I made sure to readjust my sample after the election to make sure that it represents that the Republicans now are a bigger party than the Democrats. That was the result of the election. That's what Gallup found.

And I think a lot of the other polls just, you know, basically had Harris winning and then stuck with their exact sample. We had it very close within two points. Either way, we made sure that our samples, we believe, accurately represent the country. And it's not like Donald Trump's in the 70s or anything, but he certainly has continued to keep his constituency, maybe a little bit more. He's got some very high approval ratings on some of the population. policies, you know, he is pursuing, and some things that people are not as happy with.

Okay. And I'm a kind of guy that puts the polls into perspective as far as data is concerned. And you're running on a poll. I've never had a problem with Harvard Harris poll. And I have a problem with Gallup. All right. McLaughlin is always very accurate. And the guys in Brazil are good. Forget their names now, but they were the best on the presidential race. Do you believe that there are certain outfits that have their thumb, cliche, on the polling scale, and want to deliver a bad poll number for Trump. Well, look, I think you've seen the entire media, you know, gang up pretty much on the president and his policies.

you've seen it, I mean, look, imports are only 10% of the country, and a 10% tariff on 10% of the country is 1%. And oh my God, did you see dire predictions of complete economic collapse here? All right, tariffs, you know, may not be a positive move compared to tax cuts and may have some dislocations, but relatively speaking, you saw this vast exaggeration of their size and impact, and at the same time, it's the same thing I think that you see in some of these polls. They don't ask the questions, you know, that they don't want the answers to. We're very clear, you know, people support taking those people who are here illegally and committed crimes out of the country. There's no question about that. They may not be for renaming the Gulf of Mexico into

Gulf of America, but when it comes to the core immigration policies that the president and is pursuing, that's supported by like 70% of the country, if not more. Well, I think, and you correct me if I'm wrong, which you know more about this than I do, but I've been around a while. When you are being paid to deliver data, you pretty much want to please your pay master. It's a psychological thing. And if there are ways that you can do that,

and you pointed one of them out by keeping an obsolete model, that the Democratic Party has a bigger presence than the Republican Party, when that's not true any longer. But nobody knows whether you're keeping that or not, except you, and you want to get paid, you'll keep the obsolete model. That just makes sense, right? Well, let me say that the Harvard Harris poll is done as a not fit. purely because I felt that newspaper polls were no longer reflecting the kind of more accurate polling that I did at the Wheat House when I worked with President Clinton. Because, I mean, I went back and I saw, well, sanctuary cities.

Would you think it's popular that cities don't pick up people who are designated and committed crimes and deport them? Well, I found out that no poll had asked that question since 1978, right? So a lot of the polls don't carry the questions they don't want the answers to. Now, I'm not going to indict the whole profession. People run honest polls, you know. But your poll is a lot different than 80% of them. Let me ask you one more question forward looking. The media, as you pointed out, does have.

have a tendency to try to panic the folks. You use the tariff example, the import example is very low. When the folks hear that and then they see a down day on the stock market or a down week, they do indeed panic. And that is reflected in the polling, correct? Yeah, I have actually found that the voters are less sensitive to the stock market. mostly sensitive to the prices that they pay and to the unemployment rate. And those things very much directly affect politics. Look, why isn't Trump, you know, in the 50s or 60s, right?

Because the most important issue right now is inflation. And people haven't experienced inflation coming down or prices down. Even though gas and eggs are down somewhat, the president is off on a lot of other issues, particularly immigration, but also on tariffs, on a number of these others. But the voters, I think, are really looking for a demonstration that the economy is going to be strong, that his economic policies are going to work, and that their wages are going to grow faster than prices. Well, that's what he's trying to do, but nobody knows whether that is going to work or not. Mark Penn, thank you very much.

We always enjoy talking to you. and we'll speak again soon, I hope. Thank you. All right, let's go to Mexico, and you know I feel about that country. So we are the biggest trading partner for Mexico. Mexico cannot survive without the United States. We buy their stuff. Millions of Mexico in the United States legally and illegally send money back to their relatives inside of Mexico. Tourism is the biggest next to oil, and I don't even know what the Mexican oil industry does anymore.

more. But without the United States, Mexico goes down. In return, Mexico has allowed drug cartels to kill more than a million Americans, this century so far. And they don't constrain the drug cartels. The drug cartels are the most powerful unit inside of Mexico. They run areas of the country. Sinaloa, you know, all bunch. Cartels run them. They bribe officials. If you don't take the bribe, they shoot you and your family.

Okay? The Mexican government has no control over them at all. None. Overdoor was a disgrace. Now I have a new president, Gloria Scheinbaum, okay? She didn't have any control over the drug cartels. They run Acopopocho. I'm reunying to my family because we're going to Burlington

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All the buildings, all the restaurants, all the bars, the cartel, you get some. There they were. Okay? Because they got the money. So Trump is trying to break the drug cartels, and he has designated them as terrorist groups, which means the United States. can hunt them down and kill them anywhere in the world, or incarcerate them. Guantanamo Bay. I wrote a message of the day about this today on Bill O'Reilly.com. Shine bomb is not cooperating with Trump

in trying to destroy the drug cartels. It's shocking. Roll the tape. In one of the calls, U.S. President Donald Trump said it was important for the U.S. Army to enter Mexico. to enter Mexico, to help us in the fight against drug trafficking. And I want to say that's true. In some of the calls, he said, how can we help you fight drug trafficking? I propose that the U.S. Army come in to help you.

And you know what I told him? No, President Trump. No, President Trump. The territory is sacrosanct, sovereignty is sacrosanct, sovereignty is not for sale, sovereignty is loved and defended. What a bunch of bull. You don't have sovereignty, madam. You don't run your own country. I mean, it's so insane that this century, more than a million people in Mexico have been murdered or disappeared according to a variety of human rights. They shoot mayors, they They shoot journalists.

They shoot anybody. You don't have any sovereignty. You don't run your own country. And Trump is handing you a card that would break these drug cartels once and for all. And all he wants you to do is cooperate with him. We don't even need your cooperation by U.S. law, by the way. We don't even need it. We can drone those people or send seals in it to get them any time.

want. And what are you going to do about it? Nothing. Trump is being polite to you. And you do this is what our president said. Well, she's so afraid of the cartel, she can't walk. So, you know, that's the reason. And I think she's a lovely woman. But the president of Mexico is a lovely woman. But she is so afraid of the cartels that she can't even think straight. That's true. he's afraid she's going to get killed. And that's where we are in this. And nobody else in American media will tell you the truth. I don't go to Mexico, you know that.

I'm going to do more on this on YouTube, on our YouTube special bonus, YouTube bonus. I'm going to get into the precise stats and how horrendous this whole country is, Mexico. You imagine if another country was killing? Americans the way that fentanyl and heroin and cocaine are killing Americans? And the government wouldn't do anything to stop it? I mean, we'd clear war on them. Wars have started a lot less than this. All right, check out the YouTube thing.

We'll give you the address a little later on. 60 minutes. You know, this really hurts me to report this story. So Scott Pelley is a good correspondent. He broke the record for Emmys. He won 51 or something like that. He despises Donald Trump. He puts himself up as Edward R. Merle versus McCarthy, Senator McCarthy.

That's what Pelley's doing here. And it's piece after piece after piece. Trump is the devil. Trump is the devil. Trump is the devil. Trump is suing 60 Minutes. You know the story. All right. So last night, they do a story about Trump threatening law firms denying them federal business

because of what Trump sees as corruption of those law firms. The guy that Pelley centers in on is named Mark Elias. He was the top lawyer for Hillary Clinton when she ran against Trump in 2016. Pellie turns Elias into a hero. Go. Donald Trump hates me because I fight hard and I fight for free and fair elections. I insist on fighting for democracy in court, fighting for voting rights in court, and insist on telling the truth about what the outcome of the 2020 election was. That's a bunch of bad word.

It's a bunch of bull, okay? Trump does not despise Elias because he fights for freedom or anything else. He despises Elias because of this. Number one, Elias, when he was running the Hillary Clinton campaign, campaign hired Fusing GPS to do opposition research against Donald Trump. They then hired the British firm that put together the anti-Trump dossier in the Russian collusion fraud. So Mark Alive is directly responsible for that whole Russian collusion fraud, which he thought

would derail Trump and lead his. Hillary Clinton to the White House. That's why Trump hates it. And subsequently, there was an investigation, it was no Russian collusion, an FBI agent went to prison or was convicted for ginning up phoenix, all that I came from Elias.

Pelley didn't mention it once. Now once, I'm sitting there stunned, okay? In addition, he's got three lawyers, Elias and two others, pounding Trump as a fascist who wants to destroy the Justice Department. Not one lawyer who supports Trump. Not one in the whole piece. Did you know that at Chevron you can fuel up on unbeatable mileage and savings? With Chevron rewards, you'll get 25 cents off per gallon on your next five visits. All you have to do is download the Chevron app and

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what is going on in this country when this CBS News puts this on the air? And they know what they're doing. They know who Elias is and what he did with fusing GPS. They know. And they ignored it 100%. They couldn't find one Trump lawyer to put forth Trump's point of view? 60 minutes.

All right. Then Donald Trump unfortunately puts a photo of himself dressed as a pope on X, I believe, right? Okay. there it is now this is dumb why would you do that this happened Friday so of course people are offended well take I hope he didn't have anything to do with that are you offended by that well you know you it wasn't good so Trump didn't do it but he retweeted is that what they say I just don't understand.

I really don't understand. Now, am I offended by, I'm not offended by much. But it's so unnecessary because many Catholics, the majority, voted for Trump. You may think it's funny, and it's fine. But why do it? Why? That kind of stuff. Smart life.

So we're always looking out for you. I hope you believe that. I think you do. or if you don't. So I can't cover foreign news as much as I'd like to because I got so much on the domestic front and we have to concentrate on that. But there's a very good website that covers foreign news. It's called a Global Post. I mentioned it before. And they are going to give Bill O'Reilly subscribers 50% off. They're yearly, and it's not much. And what you do is you go to global post.com and you when you fill out their promotion code you put bill

OR capital letters notice the caps and then you get 50% off okay this is for new subscribers to global post.com so if you're fine news person this is good comes every day I read it every day comes very early in the morning go dump bump bump bump bomb, stuff that I just can't cover. So we hope you check it out. Stay on History, May 5th, 1945. Amazing story. I did not know this.

There was one Japanese attack in Second World War that hit the U.S. mainland. Okay? There was action in the Aleutian Islands up in Alaska, but only one. And it happened 80 years ago today. It was a balloon bomb that took three. days to travel from Japan to Oregon. It exploded in Oregon and killed a woman, a pregnant woman, and five Sunday school children who were on a picnic. Boom. Okay? And I mean, I wrote two books. I wrote killing the rising sun and killing Patton and killing the SS3 on World War II.

I never even heard of this. Now, the U.S. government, I mean, and these five kids dead. Gerhard Mountain in Oregon. But you guys will live out there. You might know where that is. The U.S. government paid compensation of $5,000 to the woman's husband, and 3,000 each to the families of children would kill. And then, as I mentioned, it was fighting in the Aleutian Islands,

Atuinkiska between the U.S. forces and the Japanese. And that happened, that terrible thing happened, the balloon bomb 80 years ago today. Back with a final thought in a moment. All right, here is a final thought of the day, the town hall last Wednesday on News Nation, as we reported, was a huge success worldwide. We'll do more of them. now that the network knows the power of it and then I did the 100-day special with Leland Vittert. As I mentioned, that will run again on the C.W. Network on Thursday at 9 p.m. Now, the reason I'm doing all this and it's killing me to do it because my workload last week,

I mean, I was like a Sherpa. You know what a Sherpa is? Sherpa is an Asian guy who is hired to carry heavy stuff up the Himalayas. Okay. And these guys, these guys are like this. And they work. I don't, that's what I felt like last week as Sherpa. Because every hour, on the hour, was another thing I had to do. Now, it was worth it.

It was, but Friday, I slept till 9.30 in the morning on Friday. I never do that. I never do that. And I opened my eyes, I went, whoa, 9.30 in a morning. And I think I took a nap, too, in addition to that. I was like, whoa, out. So it's a lot of hard work to put these things on the air. But it's worth it.

It's worth it because you guys know where I am, but a lot of millions and millions of people, especially elderly Americans, wherever I go, I go, oh, we miss you on TV, because they can't get it. They can't get Bill O'Reilly.com. It's too hard. They want to do what they've always done. They sit in the living room with the clicker, their thumb on the thing, and there is what they watch, and they don't want to go to a phone or a computer. and I know, I know, but you're missing out. Big time. Thank you very much for watching and

listening to The Nodespin tonight. I'm Bill O'Reilly. We'll see you in a moment on.