Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 10/21/25: Trump Worries Bibi Will Break Ceasefire, Two Major Recession Indicators Blink Red
Episode Date: October 21, 2025Ryan and Saagar discuss Trump worried Bibi will break ceasefire, two recession indicators flash red. Jeremy Scahill: https://x.com/jeremyscahill  David Dayen: https://prospect.org/    T...o become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
 Transcript
 Discussion  (0)
    
                                        This is an I-Heart podcast.
                                         
                                        Hey, I'm Kyle McLaughlin.
                                         
                                        You might know me as that guy from Twin Peaks,
                                         
                                        sex in the city, or just the internet stand.
                                         
                                        I have a new podcast called What Are We Even Doing?
                                         
                                        Where I embark on a noble quest to understand the brilliant chaos of youth culture.
                                         
                                        Each week, I invite someone fascinating to join me to talk about navigating this high-speed rollercoaster we call reality.
                                         
                                        Join me in my delightful guests.
                                         
    
                                        every Thursday and let's get weird together in a good way listen to what are we even doing on
                                         
                                        the iHeart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts johnny knoxville here
                                         
                                        check out crimeless hillbilly heist my new true crime podcast from smartless media campside media
                                         
                                        and big money players it's the true story of the almost perfect crime and the nimrods who
                                         
                                        almost pulled it off it was kind of like the perfect storm in a sewer that was dumb
                                         
                                        not follow my example.
                                         
                                        Listen to Crimless,
                                         
                                        Bill Billy Heist on the IHeart
                                         
    
                                        Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
                                         
                                        or wherever you get your podcast.
                                         
                                        The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News
                                         
                                        keeps you on top of the biggest stories
                                         
                                        of the day. My fellow Americans,
                                         
                                        this is Liberation Day.
                                         
                                        Stories that move markets.
                                         
                                        Chair Powell opened the door
                                         
    
                                        to this first interest rate cut.
                                         
                                        Impact politics, change businesses.
                                         
                                        This is a really
                                         
                                        stunning development for the AI world and how you think about your bottom line.
                                         
                                        Listen to the big take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the IHeart radio app,
                                         
                                        Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
                                        Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
                                         
                                        Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited
                                         
    
                                        about what that means for the future of this show.
                                         
                                        This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right
                                         
                                        that simply does not exist anywhere else.
                                         
                                        So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
                                         
                                        We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breaking points.com.
                                         
                                        Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show. People live for the pound. Good to see you, Ryan. It is great to see you. We have a quadruple bro show here. We've got Jeremy.
                                         
                                        Remy Scahill. He's going to join us in a little bit to break down the Israel-Gaza ceasefire.
                                         
                                        We've got David Dayn in the house. He's going to break down vendor finance, the dot-com-era
                                         
    
                                        vendor's financing scheme that actually led to the crash and how it's all happening again.
                                         
                                        And he's actually legitimate expert on us. I'm excited to talk to him. We're going to break down
                                         
                                        some of the economy news, very troubling APAC actually. Very interesting here. Seth Moulton
                                         
                                        previously, how would you describe him, Ryan? He's like a national security. He's like a normal
                                         
                                        damn. Right? He says he's to the right of a normal dam even. Yeah, good point. And he is declaring,
                                         
                                        I will not take a single dollar from A-PAC, which just goes to show how much things have changed.
                                         
                                        The Epstein story, which we ran out of time yesterday because we were interviewing
                                         
                                        Shoycott Chakrabati. Actually, we will break down entirely. There's some new memoir come out
                                         
    
                                        from Virginia Goufrey, as well as a ton of new stories, which has not gotten nearly enough
                                         
                                        attention about Epstein, his connections with the financial billionaires with some of the new files
                                         
                                        that were released in the cover of darkness on a Friday.
                                         
                                        They always released some on Friday after that.
                                         
                                        Interesting, right?
                                         
                                        I used to do a column at Politico called Fischy Friday.
                                         
                                        Oh, I love that.
                                         
                                        I mean, the Friday news dump is a Washington tradition.
                                         
    
                                        It really is.
                                         
                                        It really is.
                                         
                                        And sadly, it does kind of work.
                                         
                                        It really does.
                                         
                                        Okay, Ukraine, important stuff going on with Ukraine.
                                         
                                        President Trump now appearing to reverse course, now saying Ukraine does need to accept the peace deal.
                                         
                                        We're going to break down everything that's going on.
                                         
                                        There are some fast-moving things.
                                         
    
                                        and a potential summit between a new summit between Trump and Putin in Budapest sometime on the horizon.
                                         
                                        And then Ryan and I are going to weigh in on marijuana, all right?
                                         
                                        So when crystals away, the boys will play, right?
                                         
                                        And this is actually, it's a landmark case in the United States Supreme Court where they will rule on whether marijuana users should be allowed to own and possess firearms.
                                         
                                        You should keep in mind that marijuana remains federally illegal.
                                         
                                        And so technically it is a violation of the law.
                                         
                                        And so you will all get to see where I come down on that one.
                                         
                                        And we can discuss whether marijuana use is, in fact, addiction and does qualify.
                                         
    
                                        So I'm excited to get into this.
                                         
                                        They're really jamming me up.
                                         
                                        Yeah.
                                         
                                        Are they going to make me argue for gun owners?
                                         
                                        Yes, you are.
                                         
                                        And I will be arguing for common sense gun control, right?
                                         
                                        Why would you want psychotic addicts to have guns?
                                         
                                        I mean, this is what the left has been begging for, right?
                                         
    
                                        Okay, so let's go ahead and get to Israel.
                                         
                                        Jeremy Scahill standing by. Let's get him in here.
                                         
                                        I'm very excited now to be joined in studio by Jeremy Schaithel.
                                         
                                        Jeremy, we have a tradition here where we do a pound, so we have a triple pound, man.
                                         
                                        That's what we've got going on, right?
                                         
                                        Well, we call it the pro show. That's what we call it.
                                         
                                        So that's what we're fired up and we are ready to go.
                                         
                                        All right. So we wanted to go through all of the recent developments with Israel and the ceasefire,
                                         
    
                                        the breaking of the ceasefire, the unbreaking of the ceasefire by Donald Trump.
                                         
                                        Much of it comes down to, at the current moment, a hard position.
                                         
                                        from the president and his team of, no, we're going to try to do this. And so we had Steve
                                         
                                        Wyckoff and Jared Kushner give a joint interview to CBS to 60 minutes. Let's take a listen to what
                                         
                                        they said, and then we're going to get a reaction. You decide to go to Gaza. And what did you see?
                                         
                                        It looked almost like a nuclear bomb had been set off in that area. And then you see these people
                                         
                                        moving back. And I asked the idea, where are they going? Like, I'm looking around. These are all
                                         
                                        ruins. And they said, well, they're going back to the areas where they're destroyed home was onto
                                         
    
                                        their plot and they're going to pitch a tent and it's very sad because you think to yourself
                                         
                                        they really have nowhere else to go. Would you say now having been there that it was genocide?
                                         
                                        No. No. Absolutely not. No. No, there was a war being fought.
                                         
                                        But are you saying publicly right now that Hamas is acting in good faith, seriously looking for
                                         
                                        the body? As far as we've seen from what's being conveyed to us from the mediators, they are so far.
                                         
                                        That could break down at any minute.
                                         
                                        But right now, we have seen them looking to honor their agreement.
                                         
                                        So he says that they're looking to honor the agreement, Jeremy.
                                         
    
                                        What does that fit with some of your reporting and some of the other things that you know about behind the scenes?
                                         
                                        Yeah, I mean, I think if you look at the actions of Israel versus the actions of Hamas since October 10th and the ceasefire going into effect,
                                         
                                        Israel has continued its pattern of violating the ceasefire, not just by killing Palestinians and saying,
                                         
                                        oh, they crossed this sort of fictitious line that the Israelis are now putting these huge yellow kinds.
                                         
                                        concrete blocks in, continuing to kill as many as 100 or more Palestinians.
                                         
                                        They're also not shipping in the agreed upon amount of food and other life essentials.
                                         
                                        I don't like the term aid because what Israel is doing is not just blocking humanitarian aid.
                                         
                                        They're blocking life essentials because they're in total control of what goes in and out
                                         
    
                                        of Gaza.
                                         
                                        So the Israelis always do this.
                                         
                                        They violate the ceasefire.
                                         
                                        They claim that it was for security reasons.
                                         
                                        On the other hand, Hamas is chief negotiator and its political
                                         
                                        leader, Khalil Al-Haya, gave a really interesting interview on Egyptian television yesterday
                                         
                                        in which he sounded like a seasoned diplomat when you compare the rhetoric of Hamas officials with
                                         
                                        that of Israelis. Hamas is going out of its way to be very conciliatory about this. They're heaping
                                         
    
                                        praise on Donald Trump. They're saying that they're committed to the ceasefire. When allegations
                                         
                                        of violations happen, they try to address it right away. It was extraordinary to have the Qasan
                                         
                                        brigades, Hamas's armed wing, put out a statement in real time, almost like they have their
                                         
                                        kind of PR operation like a Western government where they're responding tit for tat to what Israel
                                         
                                        is saying, but they're not using belligerent language. When they're asked about the issue of
                                         
                                        disarmament, they remain firm, and they say that that's a Palestinian issue and that we're not
                                         
                                        going to disarm. But they also say these are issues to be discussed in a broader Palestinian context.
                                         
                                        So what I would say is that when you hear Jared Kushner or Steve Whitkoff saying anything other
                                         
    
                                        than Hamas is the obstruction. Even when Israel is accusing Hamas of being the obstruction,
                                         
                                        that's a marked change from what we saw under Biden and also what we've seen at different
                                         
                                        points under the Trump administration. Yeah, that makes sense. And we have A2 on disarmament.
                                         
                                        Let's play it. Let's roll through that. And yet, as soon as you left, Hamas executed seven people
                                         
                                        and then they went on to execute 30 more. Do you believe they really will disarm?
                                         
                                        Well, they promised they would. They said they would. It's down that they would. Now, they said,
                                         
                                        they were gang members, et cetera, et cetera, you know.
                                         
                                        But these are very violent people.
                                         
    
                                        This is a very violent part of the world.
                                         
                                        Nobody's seen violence like this.
                                         
                                        If we have to, we'll disarm them.
                                         
                                        The U.S.
                                         
                                        Well, whether it's me or the U.S. or it's, you know, a proxy could be Israel with our backing.
                                         
                                        We won't have boots on the ground.
                                         
                                        There's no reason to.
                                         
                                        You got to love when Trump just says the quiet part out loud that Israel is a proxy.
                                         
    
                                        But yeah.
                                         
                                        Us or one of our proxies.
                                         
                                        Now, when Kushner was asked about that by Leslie Stahl, he gave a much more nuanced answer.
                                         
                                        He said, well, you have to wait until this international stabilization force is up and operative
                                         
                                        because it's a population of a couple million people and you need some sort of police force.
                                         
                                        It was like it's unusually kind of level-headed and clear-eyed from him.
                                         
                                        And so he was saying, effectively, we can't ask Hamas to disarm.
                                         
                                        until we've gotten all the rest of our ducks in a row.
                                         
    
                                        So what are you reading from all of the different signals
                                         
                                        that are being sent about this?
                                         
                                        I mean, first of all, let's fly up to 30,000 feet.
                                         
                                        When Israeli officials talk about disarmament,
                                         
                                        they're actually not talking about arms.
                                         
                                        They're using that as a proxy for,
                                         
                                        we want a full surrender of the Palestinian people.
                                         
                                        Right.
                                         
    
                                        In a way, if you look at this just on a factual level,
                                         
                                        this is a total humiliation for Israel.
                                         
                                        If you actually look at facts,
                                         
                                        they're demanding that Hamas give up its arms,
                                         
                                        What arms? Most of it is either repurposed Israeli ordinance, homemade in, you know, by the engineering
                                         
                                        corps of Hamas battalions, sniper rifles. They have rocket-propelled grenade launchers that either
                                         
                                        were bought on the black market from Israelis or that they've manufactured within Gaza.
                                         
                                        A massive modern military that is a killing machine in the region has been unable to militarily
                                         
    
                                        defeat guys wearing flip-flops and tracksuits. So on one level, this issue of disarmament,
                                         
                                        the world should sort of be saying, wait a minute, Israel's goal from the beginning has been
                                         
                                        the obliteration of Hamas and the disarmament of Hamas. They've utterly failed to do it, even
                                         
                                        though they've killed tens of thousands of Palestinians in the process. Trump himself said that
                                         
                                        upwards of 20,000 Qasem brigade soldiers have been killed. The pre-war estimates were between 20 and
                                         
                                        25,000 of the Qasem brigades. Now, U.S. officials, I think it's really interesting,
                                         
                                        that when you have Kushner and Whitkoff and Trump talking about this issue of the weapons,
                                         
                                        They seem to understand that there is a game that Israel is playing here and that the issue isn't actually the weapons themselves.
                                         
    
                                        It's a political question.
                                         
                                        And that's why I'll go back to Hamas' position.
                                         
                                        When they first responded to Trump, they broke his 20-point plan into two basic parts.
                                         
                                        The first part was we, the resistance, holding the Israeli captives, we have the mandate to negotiate an end of the war, the resumption of delivery of life essentials, and the issue of Israeli troop withdrawals.
                                         
                                        But these other issues are political questions.
                                         
                                        Now, Trump's people could have taken a hard line and said, no, it's all or nothing, but they haven't.
                                         
                                        Trump continues to misrepresent, according to Hamas officials, what they actually said about disarmament.
                                         
                                        I suspect, based on what sources within the Palestinian resistance have told me, that when these discussions
                                         
    
                                        took place with Whitkoff and Kushner, and I did speak to a source recently with direct knowledge of that conversation,
                                         
                                        what Khalil Al-Haya, I'm told, said to Whitkoff and Kushner was, we are open to disarmament.
                                         
                                        in the context of the constitution of a Palestinian state and a Palestinian armed force.
                                         
                                        That is not a new position.
                                         
                                        But in the same way that Hamas was asking that Trump publicly announced an end to the war
                                         
                                        without any way of validating that or keeping it accountable,
                                         
                                        I think that there were those kinds of discussions at play.
                                         
                                        And so what Trump is representing is a dramatic oversimplification of the position Hamas has taken.
                                         
    
                                        But all Palestinian factions have said this, clearly, armed ones.
                                         
                                        We will disarm in the context of merging,
                                         
                                        our forces into a professional standing army, as has happened through history in these anti-colonialist
                                         
                                        struggles. What's fascinating to me, Jeremy, is the White House is singularly representing Hamas
                                         
                                        is the problem, but also all of their indications are that Israel is a problem. So we have a New York
                                         
                                        Times article. I asked if we can put it up there on the screen or edit it in post-production. There
                                         
                                        it is. The White House works to preserve Gaza deal amid concerns with Netanyahu. So not only did
                                         
                                        Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner dispatch to Israel, but Vice President Vance is now wheels down
                                         
    
                                        in Tel Aviv. And apparently it's because of this. There are multiple White House officials going
                                         
                                        on background to the New York Times who say they are, quote, increasingly worried Netanyahu
                                         
                                        would dismantle the U.S. broker disagreement. Vice President Vance there, they're now actually
                                         
                                        trying to back up the two of them to deliver a message from the White House of like, hey, we need
                                         
                                        this to stay together. But what they see behind the scenes was the immediate jump, let's say,
                                         
                                        with that unexploded ordinance, where Israel immediately lied about what happened. The only reason
                                         
                                        it got rained in, is because the White House said, oh, we know that this wasn't a Hamas
                                         
                                        attack. We know this was unexploded ordinance. But that was a signal that this is all, this is what
                                         
    
                                        every single day of this is going to look like. And so with the White House trying to demand this
                                         
                                        of Netanyahu, how precarious do you see the current framework in the context of everything you just
                                         
                                        said? I think that we should understand Israel's position in this as Netanyahu and others in the
                                         
                                        government trying to figure out how to exploit this and do a strategic repositioning.
                                         
                                        In the short term, I think what we're seeing is the White House saying to Netanyahu,
                                         
                                        we are not going to allow you to blow up this deal right now.
                                         
                                        And they're essentially, I mean, I think Trump was right when he said that effectively
                                         
                                        he was saving Israel from itself.
                                         
    
                                        They were not succeeding militarily at anything except killing enormous numbers of children
                                         
                                        intense and starving people.
                                         
                                        I mean, they were unable to stop the insurgency.
                                         
                                        So what I think Trump and Vance are saying to Israel right now is your agenda is still there.
                                         
                                        Let us go down this path.
                                         
                                        There's also the wild card we've discussed on this program before.
                                         
                                        Trump, Kushner, Wittkov's son, all of these people in the inner circle have huge business entanglements with these Gulf states.
                                         
                                        And I think that the Article 5 like agreement that Trump made with Qatar, this mutual defense pack.
                                         
    
                                        Now the Saudis are saying, wait a minute, we've spent so many years kissing the boot and where's our agreement.
                                         
                                        But what Trump is doing is quite interesting because I think that on one level, the greed, the business, the family connections, the security for his family businesses going forward, his legacy are causing problems for Netanyahu in the short term.
                                         
                                        But I would say we're in a perilous situation. Israel is still in pole position with their war of annihilation. Netanyahu, I think they just want to kind of discipline him a little bit. Get the dog to come next to you and stand at your leg. And then when you tell him, he can go back and attack whatever you order him to attack.
                                         
                                        That's essentially what I see happening right now.
                                         
                                        It's very dangerous for the future of the Palestinians right now.
                                         
                                        That makes sense.
                                         
                                        Yeah, so how does this unfold from here?
                                         
                                        Yeah.
                                         
    
                                        You know, I was talking recently with some Palestinians who are very close to the negotiations,
                                         
                                        and I think from the Palestinian perspective,
                                         
                                        they want to widen the team that's negotiating this.
                                         
                                        There's some advantage to Netanyahu having Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad be the negotiators
                                         
                                        at the other end of the table.
                                         
                                        I've heard people mention, for instance, that Mustafa Barguti, who is well known to Western audiences,
                                         
                                        a physician who speaks flu in English, goes on CNN, does not control an armed force, but has widespread
                                         
                                        recognition in Palestine and increasing popularity. He's never kicked the armed resistance under the bus
                                         
    
                                        from the moment October 7th started, but he also is someone that can deal with the European Union and other
                                         
                                        Western diplomats. I think what the Palestinians want now is to widen the circle of who's negotiating. They
                                         
                                        also have to navigate the fact that Mahmoud Abbas, the extremely elderly, decrepit and corrupt
                                         
                                        head of the Palestinian Authority is not representative of the Palestinian people. While he was
                                         
                                        blocked from coming into the U.S. to go to the United Nations General Assembly, he was allowed to be
                                         
                                        on the sidelines of the Charmel Sheikhs, you know, scam summit, but he wasn't a full participant.
                                         
                                        And I think that there's a way in which Israel, even though they say, oh, we don't want the
                                         
                                        Palestinian Authority, they would prefer it because they've always got.
                                         
    
                                        gotten what they've wanted there.
                                         
                                        So from the Palestinian perspective,
                                         
                                        I think they want as many different interests represented
                                         
                                        at the table because they feel like
                                         
                                        it is an existential question now
                                         
                                        for the future of Palestine.
                                         
                                        From Netanyahu's perspective,
                                         
                                        he wants to have Hamas and Islamic Jihad
                                         
    
                                        be the representatives of Palestine.
                                         
                                        And yes, Hamas is a very popular political entity
                                         
                                        within the fabric of Palestinian society,
                                         
                                        but they're not the only one.
                                         
                                        It's a pluralistic society
                                         
                                        with a diversity of views.
                                         
                                        So who's going to be on this technocratic committee
                                         
                                        is a big question. Is it going to just be a kind of discussion group that's overseen by the United
                                         
    
                                        States for all practical purposes? The Tony Blair thing, I don't know that that's actually going to
                                         
                                        happen, but it does seem Trump's intent on this. Questions about who's going to constitute this so-called
                                         
                                        international security force. There was a piece in the New York Times this morning. I think a lot
                                         
                                        of nations are really concerned about that, especially Arab nations. The populations of all of
                                         
                                        these Arab Gulf nations in the broader Islamic world, they're furious that their governments did
                                         
                                        nothing about this. So then they're going to go and deploy. And I think that the concern,
                                         
                                        yeah, I agree with your skepticism. We talked about this before. But like they're going to deploy
                                         
                                        and then either they're going to get killed in so-called friendly fire incidents by Israel,
                                         
    
                                        raising questions about how their nations respond, or they essentially get co-opted into
                                         
                                        becoming agents of Israeli repression. So the question of whether this is tenable is not just one
                                         
                                        for like what are the Palestinians going to agree to. Trump is in bed with all of these Arab Gulf
                                         
                                        countries on multiple levels, personal and business of the government. And you have a very
                                         
                                        vicious, insidious Netanyahu and his team on the sidelines trying to poke at whatever
                                         
                                        Trump is doing. And then you have the Palestinians who should be the most central voice,
                                         
                                        and yet they don't allow any Palestinians to participate in a so-called peace summit about Palestine.
                                         
                                        It's crazy.
                                         
    
                                        Hey there, I'm Kyle McLaughlin. You might know me as that guy from Twin Peaks, Sex in the City,
                                         
                                        or just the internet's dad.
                                         
                                        I have a new podcast called What Are We Even Doing?
                                         
                                        Where I embark on a noble quest to understand the brilliant chaos of youth culture.
                                         
                                        Daddy's looking good.
                                         
                                        Each week I invite someone fascinating to join me, actors, musicians, creatives, highly evolved digital life forms.
                                         
                                        And we talk about what they love.
                                         
                                        Sometimes I'll drizzle a little honey in there too from feeling sexy in the morning.
                                         
    
                                        What keeps them going?
                                         
                                        And you're maybe my biggest competition on social media.
                                         
                                        Like when a kid says bra to me.
                                         
                                        And how they're navigating this high-speed roller coaster we call reality.
                                         
                                        In Australia, you're looking out for snakes, spiders, and f*** boys.
                                         
                                        Right.
                                         
                                        Hey, he's no train McDougall.
                                         
                                        This is like the comment section of my Instagram.
                                         
    
                                        Join me and my delightful guests every Thursday.
                                         
                                        And let's get weird together in a good way.
                                         
                                        Listen to what are we even doing on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
                                        In the new podcast, Hell in Heaven, two young Americans moved to the Costa Rican jungle to start over.
                                         
                                        But one will end up dead, the other tried for murder.
                                         
                                        Not once.
                                         
                                        People went wild.
                                         
                                        Not twice.
                                         
    
                                        Stunned.
                                         
                                        But three times.
                                         
                                        John and Anne Bender are rich and attractive, and they're devoted to each other.
                                         
                                        They create a nature reserve and build a spectacular search.
                                         
                                        killer home, high on the top
                                         
                                        of a hill. But little
                                         
                                        by little, their dream
                                         
                                        starts to crumble, and
                                         
    
                                        our couple retreat from reality.
                                         
                                        They lose it. They actually
                                         
                                        lose it. They sort of went nuts.
                                         
                                        Until
                                         
                                        one night, everything spins
                                         
                                        out of control.
                                         
                                        Listen to hell in heaven
                                         
                                        on the I-heart radio app,
                                         
    
                                        Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get
                                         
                                        your podcasts.
                                         
                                        The Big Take Pikes,
                                         
                                        from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every weekday.
                                         
                                        A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's no chance of bad news on the labor market.
                                         
                                        What does a bacon, egg, and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?
                                         
                                        Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsize indicators of inflation.
                                         
                                        What's behind Elon Musk's trillion dollar payout?
                                         
    
                                        There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.
                                         
                                        He's putting politics aside.
                                         
                                        He's left the White House.
                                         
                                        And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?
                                         
                                        CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things,
                                         
                                        whereas the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.
                                         
                                        Listen to the big take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the IHeart Radio app,
                                         
                                        Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
                                         
    
                                        podcasts.
                                         
                                        I can't move away from everything you're talking about, which is, and I brought this up every
                                         
                                        day, civilian administration.
                                         
                                        So Hamas, you know, the war temporarily pauses.
                                         
                                        Yes, you know, they're imposing some law and order.
                                         
                                        We may not like how it looks, but that's, you know, that's how they want to do it.
                                         
                                        Yeah, they brought it in and they shot people who they accused of being collaborators.
                                         
                                        I was like, yeah, that's what happens when you have a security vacuum.
                                         
    
                                        You literally blew this place and made it look like in the world.
                                         
                                        words a nuclear bomb went off. I didn't say that. Jared Kushner said that. And so what do you think is
                                         
                                        going to happen? And so the post-civil administration, I believe all three of us are in this business
                                         
                                        literally because of the war in Iraq and of Afghanistan. What did we all witness? We collapsed the
                                         
                                        government, the centralized authority. They broke into warlord factions. Civil wars happened.
                                         
                                        We bore the responsibility. We're asking Hamas disarmament. How is that possible? Who is going to
                                         
                                        administer the civil—you guys had a story recently just highlighting the issue. You guys estimate that
                                         
                                        nearly one million of Gaza's 1.1 million olive trees have been destroyed, a long-time sector
                                         
    
                                        of their economy, not to mention just their tradition. So what is, you know, the Arab nations
                                         
                                        are going to come in and do some coin counterinsurgency? It's not going to happen.
                                         
                                        Like, so they're going to get blown up in crossfire, not to mention unexploded ordinance.
                                         
                                        This is a war zone. How is anybody able to govern this if it is not the Palestinian Ghazans
                                         
                                        themselves, which of course the Israelis don't want to see happen? And remember, even up right up until
                                         
                                        the closing hours prior to the ceasefire, Israeli forces were going on a systematic arson campaign
                                         
                                        and attacking basic infrastructure, water treatment facilities, as well as a further flattening
                                         
                                        of residential buildings saying that they're terrorist infrastructure. We're talking about apartment
                                         
    
                                        buildings that they're not going on. So Israel still has its eye on the goal of annihilation of Palestinians
                                         
                                        in Gaza. But the law and order, so to speak, that you're raising is a really vital question.
                                         
                                        Remember what happened when Bush and Cheney decided to overthrow Saddam Hussein's government?
                                         
                                        The most disastrous decision they made on a counterinsurgency level was debathification.
                                         
                                        They fired 250,000 Iraqi soldiers.
                                         
                                        And I remember so clearly the late great journalist Anthony Shadid quoted an Iraqi official who had been in the bath party as saying it was the day that a quarter of a million Iraqis joined the insurgency against the Americans.
                                         
                                        And you saw a massive uptick in the number of American bodies coming back.
                                         
                                        I predict that if they try to de-homasify Gaza's institutions, which are largely civil institutions,
                                         
    
                                        including the police, including domestic intelligence, including the governance of courts and jails,
                                         
                                        et cetera, they're going to be begging for those people to come back to work.
                                         
                                        Of course they will.
                                         
                                        And so it was interesting to hear Trump, although he contradicts himself the next day,
                                         
                                        but he does seem to get it.
                                         
                                        And that's why he said at the beginning, oh, we told them that they could do this for a period.
                                         
                                        I think that they're going to realize that there are multiple faces to Hamas, and one of them is governance.
                                         
                                        They were the only governing authority that any Palestinians in Gaza knew for two decades.
                                         
    
                                        And under incredibly difficult circumstances, they managed to keep basic civilian infrastructure going.
                                         
                                        Hamas officials have told me it became an albatross around our neck.
                                         
                                        We're under siege.
                                         
                                        The whole place is locked down.
                                         
                                        Our popularity was dropping because of governance issues.
                                         
                                        It's not because of the armed resistance.
                                         
                                        That remains the number one most popular issue along with.
                                         
                                        with statehood for Palestinians, but on a governance level. So if they think they're just going to
                                         
    
                                        blow it all up, impose some foreign force, say, oh, here's a new committee, but it's not really
                                         
                                        in charge, who's in charge is this peace board that Trump said. It's going to be a disaster,
                                         
                                        and they're going to come begging those technical experts that ran the government in Gaza
                                         
                                        and also won the last Democratic election and say, come back in. So I think we're going to see
                                         
                                        that if they try to impose it. One thing is clear of Palestine's history. They are not going to
                                         
                                        except for an occupation.
                                         
                                        It's just not going to happen.
                                         
                                        The question is, how does it get resistant?
                                         
    
                                        Do we have actual recognition of Palestinian rights or not?
                                         
                                        The world has never been more clear
                                         
                                        on what the Israeli project represents than now.
                                         
                                        And I think that was a key factor in why
                                         
                                        the Palestinian negotiators took this deal,
                                         
                                        even though it's a bad deal,
                                         
                                        because they recognize that the world is on their side.
                                         
                                        And that's why, in a way, it's more important
                                         
    
                                        for journalists and others to pay much more attention
                                         
                                        now that at any point in the past years.
                                         
                                        I totally agree with you.
                                         
                                        The future is up for grass.
                                         
                                        I completely agree, because this is the post project of, you know, immediate term was hostages, negotiation, ceasefire.
                                         
                                        Now it's the hard part.
                                         
                                        Yeah.
                                         
                                        Did we win the war in Iraq after mission accomplished?
                                         
    
                                        That's actually when we lost the war in Iraq.
                                         
                                        That's what so many people failed to grasp.
                                         
                                        It's going to be a decade-long project.
                                         
                                        Well, could I make one last point?
                                         
                                        Yeah, just something that you sat there.
                                         
                                        On this issue of the exchange of captives, you look at the Israelis that have been released from Hamas's captivity, and they were held during scorched earth bombing, during a starvation.
                                         
                                        campaign. And I think many of them, their physical appearance did not look like what people thought
                                         
                                        it was going to look like when they came out. You look then at the images of Palestinians,
                                         
    
                                        you know, where medical officials are saying that organs were surgically removed, where their
                                         
                                        bodies are charred, where there's ropes around their necks, where some of them have their hands
                                         
                                        tied behind their backs. You know, blindfolded. In the photos, the bodies are like decayed, but you can
                                         
                                        see the blindfolds around the eyes.
                                         
                                        As we sit here in this studio in Washington, D.C.,
                                         
                                        Palestinians are gathered in tents in Gaza,
                                         
                                        watching monitors where medical examiners
                                         
                                        are putting pictures of the bodies of Palestinians
                                         
    
                                        that have been returned.
                                         
                                        And they're doing close-ups of the teeth,
                                         
                                        or of the hands, or of the clothing that was on these people.
                                         
                                        And they're gathering intents to try to say,
                                         
                                        see, is that my son?
                                         
                                        whose body part I'm looking at, you know, the sadistic nature of this, Israel is holding at least
                                         
                                        720 Palestinian bodies that we know of. One Palestinian political prisoner who died on hunger
                                         
                                        strike, his body's been held for 45 years. They still haven't released it. But there are current
                                         
    
                                        indications that there are as many as 1,500 bodies in addition to that that are being held
                                         
                                        in the context of October 7th and the aftermath, Palestinian bodies. Trump talks about the sickness
                                         
                                        of what kind of sick people hold dead bodies.
                                         
                                        It's a matter of state doctrine in Israel since 1967
                                         
                                        to hold Palestinian bodies.
                                         
                                        So the whole narrative,
                                         
                                        whether you are a mega person in this country
                                         
                                        or you're a Democrat or you're a leftist
                                         
    
                                        or you're a rightist, all of us should recognize
                                         
                                        there are two standards that are being broadcast here right now
                                         
                                        and it's a question of like, what are our values?
                                         
                                        We're denouncing the, I mean, the Palestinians are desperate
                                         
                                        to get the bodies of these Israeli captives back.
                                         
                                        This is a total liability for them.
                                         
                                        the Israelis are holding them in coolers and freezers, in some cases, for 45 years.
                                         
                                        Why don't we talk about that?
                                         
    
                                        And real quickly, since we have you here, though, on the, I want to ask you about the West Bank,
                                         
                                        because actually there was a video just this week of a man was killed in the West Bank,
                                         
                                        and it was his wife or a family member kind of battled the IDF soldiers there to, like,
                                         
                                        grab his body.
                                         
                                        And Palestinians successfully prevented the Israelis from taking the body out of an ambulance
                                         
                                        and back into Israel 48.
                                         
                                        But on Monday, we also saw this viral video filmed by Jasper Nathaniel, great independent.
                                         
                                        We had him on our show yesterday.
                                         
    
                                        Reporter, who captured an image that is becoming kind of the masked face of Israel,
                                         
                                        which is this like thug settler with his, with a giant stick over his head beating an elderly woman.
                                         
                                        And today, Henn Mazig, I don't know if I'm pronouncing his name, right, one of the Israeli propagandists out there.
                                         
                                        He reports, Israeli deputy commissioner Moshe Pinché sent a message to other commanders, ordering them to find and stop an Israeli man who had attacked and seriously injured an elderly Palestinian woman in the West Bank who had been out harvesting olives.
                                         
                                        He added, quote, an image that kept me from sleeping.
                                         
                                        We will not be like our cruel enemies, unquote.
                                         
                                        And then Henn adds, this is the kind of moral clarity we need to maintain even through the darkest times.
                                         
                                        This is accountability.
                                         
    
                                        So Israel actually responding to the images of this violence, which is highly unusual.
                                         
                                        But what do you make of them getting off their took us here and saying they're going to actually do something about this?
                                         
                                        What would you say about the moral clarity that's alleged here?
                                         
                                        The last two years of Israeli conduct has dramatically given lie to this mantra repeated by Democrats and Republicans that it's the only democracy.
                                         
                                        in the Middle East. There's actually nothing democratic at all about Israeli society
                                         
                                        when you have, on the one hand, the stealing of people's land, the brutal beating and killing
                                         
                                        of Palestinians as you try to steal their land, the denial of full rights to people, even that
                                         
                                        you say are your citizens who happen to be Palestinian. So, you know, the entire project has
                                         
    
                                        been exposed as a lie. But what I would say is, even when Israel gets caught on camera and caught
                                         
                                        on film. The actual accountability, when it happens, is minimal. You know, you had people who were
                                         
                                        filmed raping Palestinian prisoners, and their defense in court that their lawyer offered was that
                                         
                                        they needed to rape him because it was self-defense. And the Biden administration repeatedly got
                                         
                                        played on this. They would stand there at the State Department, oh, well, Israel is doing an
                                         
                                        investigation. It never goes anywhere. There's never any actual consequences. What I would say about
                                         
                                        this beating video, though, the Palestinian woman who was getting...
                                         
                                        beaten with a club for committing the crime of farming while Palestinian, is that what happens
                                         
    
                                        when we don't have video there?
                                         
                                        That's actually what matters, because when you hear, if you listen to Palestinians and what
                                         
                                        happens to them at the hands of the government enforced and backed settlers, it's an astonishing
                                         
                                        crime that has played out for decades.
                                         
                                        And, you know, this is why so many Arab and Islamic States wanted this term in the Trump
                                         
                                        plan, saying that there won't be any annexation of the West Bank, and then it was taken out
                                         
                                        the night before by, you know, Dermer and others meeting with Whitkoff, because I think that is
                                         
                                        the agenda moving forward. You know, that speech in the Knesset of Trump was like watching a
                                         
    
                                        reverse Nuremberg trial, where instead of facing justice, the criminals gather together
                                         
                                        and they congratulate each other. The guest of honor who should have been there was Joe Biden,
                                         
                                        who, you know, the difference between Biden and Trump is Biden was a committed Zionist ideologue.
                                         
                                        Trump is transactional.
                                         
                                        You know, Trump will pay lip service to Merriam Aedelson and the agenda of Zionism.
                                         
                                        It's almost funny to him.
                                         
                                        Yeah, it's almost like he's saying, like, can you believe these fools, believe me?
                                         
                                        It's sort of like the famous quote about Karl Rove talking about the evangelical right,
                                         
    
                                        you know, where it's basically they recognize that they could get them as a voting bloc, you know,
                                         
                                        with the radical rise of the radical religious right.
                                         
                                        In a way, I think that's kind of how Trump is toward Israel.
                                         
                                        I don't think he cares one way or the other.
                                         
                                        I don't think he's actually like a committed Zionist in a political sense.
                                         
                                        He's not committed.
                                         
                                        Biden's entire career was that.
                                         
                                        So Trump's like, okay, well, we'll let them burn the place down after they blow up the ceasefire.
                                         
    
                                        But it had to do with his own, you know, transactional, political, real estate, all of these other things.
                                         
                                        Oh, well, yeah, Mary Madelson is telling me I need to do this.
                                         
                                        Oh, yeah, well, she's got $60 billion in the bank.
                                         
                                        Okay, fine.
                                         
                                        We'll let Netanyahu do.
                                         
                                        Biden, though, committed Zionist his whole career defending Israel at its worst constantly.
                                         
                                        Yeah, he said a Jew in the world would not be safe if Israel didn't exist.
                                         
                                        which is a slap in the face to our country.
                                         
    
                                        That still enrages me.
                                         
                                        So you're the president.
                                         
                                        To this day.
                                         
                                        Yeah, I know.
                                         
                                        I mean, what?
                                         
                                        That's such an insane thing to say.
                                         
                                        Like 8 million people in the country not safe under your leadership.
                                         
                                        Literally. Yeah, we're not safe under your leadership.
                                         
    
                                        Exactly.
                                         
                                        And now we have Anthony Blinken.
                                         
                                        I'm not sure you saw this.
                                         
                                        John Kirby is now at David Axelrods Institute for politics.
                                         
                                        Jake Sherman's at Hart.
                                         
                                        These people had no consequence.
                                         
                                        It's Iraq.
                                         
                                        Sorry, not Jake Sherman's catch a strait.
                                         
    
                                        Yeah, sorry.
                                         
                                        I apologize.
                                         
                                        Jake Sullivan is over at Harvard.
                                         
                                        I mean, these people paid no price.
                                         
                                        And I think that's what's so personally blackpilling is.
                                         
                                        I saw that happen with Iraq and I said, okay, it won't happen again, right?
                                         
                                        Like in my own lifetime.
                                         
                                        But it did happen again.
                                         
    
                                        And again, you know, I think that on these questions, we cannot let the Biden people off the hook.
                                         
                                        There's a huge, yes, Trump allowed the Israelis to put forward a narrative of lies to blow up that January ceasefire deal.
                                         
                                        March 2nd, they reimposed the siege, and then March 18th, they begin the terror bombings again.
                                         
                                        Now they brought it back to the so-called ceasefire.
                                         
                                        But Biden's people, including Matt Miller, the former State Department spokesperson, have acknowledged
                                         
                                        that they allowed Israel to blow up ceasefire deals because they were afraid if they were too hard
                                         
                                        on them that it would ruin their chances to get a ceasefire deal.
                                         
                                        I mean, you think about the logic there.
                                         
    
                                        But I would, again, I would draw a difference between the Kushners and the Whitkoffs of the world,
                                         
                                        who I think in their own way are sort of cold.
                                         
                                        callous, vicious characters when it comes to how they're approaching Palestine and the Biden
                                         
                                        people. There was ideology at the center of the Biden people regarding Israel. With Trump's people,
                                         
                                        it's kind of like a Walmart. You know, like they're really, this is just about like how much
                                         
                                        crap can we, you know, sell to get what we want, to get those profits. And, and I think, again,
                                         
                                        we should never forget that it was the Biden people that let this go on, that facilitated the
                                         
                                        entire thing. There never would have been that January deal had it not been for Trump's intervention,
                                         
    
                                        no matter how much the Matt Iglesias or others of the world want to try to pretend Biden's people
                                         
                                        sealed that deal. They didn't. What Biden brought, he should be remembered as the butcher
                                         
                                        of Gaza. But Biden's legacy should be, he was the butcher of Gaza. And it was this simple
                                         
                                        the whole time, Jeremy. How did the ceasefire happen, this final one? They met with Hamas in a
                                         
                                        room. It's not difficult. Meet with them.
                                         
                                        Kushner said that he brought it up in the first Trump term. Exactly. It's one thing that I do
                                         
                                        give the Trump administration credit for, although they kind of screwed the Palestinians on the
                                         
                                        Eidan Alexander, you know, exchange, the American Israeli soldier who was released and there was
                                         
    
                                        supposed to be Trump calling for an end of the war and resumption of aid, but I give them credit
                                         
                                        for sitting down and talking with Hamas. And this is the dangerous thing, and it's the broader
                                         
                                        lesson we can end on, I guess. Anytime, and it's why it's why a drop site, we believe in speaking
                                         
                                        to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad. It's because anytime you speak with people,
                                         
                                        that you're told are the enemy.
                                         
                                        You're gonna learn something about what motivates them.
                                         
                                        Absolutely.
                                         
                                        What drives them.
                                         
    
                                        And if we really want to resolve conflict
                                         
                                        or we want to end these wars,
                                         
                                        it is imperative that you be willing
                                         
                                        to hear the perspective of the other side.
                                         
                                        Otherwise, you have what Israel is,
                                         
                                        which is just an annihilationist agenda,
                                         
                                        a serial killer masquerading as a nation state.
                                         
                                        But if we wanna hold ourselves to a higher standard,
                                         
    
                                        it means you talk to everybody.
                                         
                                        So on that strand of Trump's policy,
                                         
                                        I think is something that should become part
                                         
                                        of the U.S. perspective on resolving conflict and war. You have to speak to people that you
                                         
                                        claim to be fighting against or that are being characterized as terrorists, particularly when it's
                                         
                                        in the service of another country. Yeah, especially as the people you need to talk to. Absolutely
                                         
                                        right. Don't let anybody shame you. You talk to whoever you want to, even if they're literal
                                         
                                        terrorists. I mean, look, I talk to you. Yeah, yeah, that's right. You're right.
                                         
    
                                        You know, I'll end on this note. Similarly, I remember I ate all the propaganda about North Korea.
                                         
                                        Then I met some of the people who were analysts who had met with the North Koreans and they explained
                                         
                                        their perspective. I go, yeah, I'm not giving my nukes up either. Obviously, I'm like,
                                         
                                        what? Of course. Look who's still standing. Yeah, it was like, I'm not trusting these people for
                                         
                                        one second. I heard what they said at the negotiation table about Gaddafi to Mike Pompeo's face.
                                         
                                        And I was like, yeah, I'm on Pyongyang side here, man. Like, you know, I'm never giving
                                         
                                        these up. So that's a perfect example of what you're talking about. Jeremy, thank you so much
                                         
                                        for dropping by. Always love talking to you, man. Thank you very much. Always an honor to be with you
                                         
    
                                        Thanks, thank you.
                                         
                                        Hey there, I'm Kyle McLaughlin.
                                         
                                        You might know me as that guy from Twin Peaks, Sex and the City, or just the Internet
                                         
                                        stand.
                                         
                                        I have a new podcast called What Are We Even Doing, where I embark on a noble quest to
                                         
                                        understand the brilliant chaos of youth culture.
                                         
                                        Daddy's looking good.
                                         
                                        Each week, I invite someone fascinating to join me, actors, musicians, creatives, highly evolved
                                         
    
                                        digital life forms, and we talk about what they love.
                                         
                                        Sometimes I'll drizzle a little honey in there, too, from feeling sexy in the morning.
                                         
                                        What keeps them going?
                                         
                                        And you're maybe my biggest competition on social media.
                                         
                                        Like, when a kid says, bra to me.
                                         
                                        And how they're navigating this high-speed roller coaster we call reality.
                                         
                                        In Australia, you're looking out for snakes, spiders, and f***is.
                                         
                                        Right.
                                         
    
                                        Hey, he's no train McDougall.
                                         
                                        This is, like, the comments section of my Instagram.
                                         
                                        Join me and my delightful guests every Thursday.
                                         
                                        And let's get weird together in a good way.
                                         
                                        Listen to what are we even doing on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
                                        In the new podcast, Hell in Heaven, two young Americans moved to the Costa Rican jungle to start over.
                                         
                                        But one will end up dead.
                                         
                                        The other tried for murder.
                                         
    
                                        Not once.
                                         
                                        People went wild.
                                         
                                        Not twice.
                                         
                                        Stunned.
                                         
                                        But three times.
                                         
                                        John and Anne Bender are rich and attractive
                                         
                                        and they're devoted to each other
                                         
                                        They create a nature reserve
                                         
    
                                        And build a spectacular circular home
                                         
                                        High on the top of a hill
                                         
                                        But little by little
                                         
                                        Their dream starts to crumble
                                         
                                        And our couple retreat from reality
                                         
                                        They lose it, they actually lose it
                                         
                                        They sort of went nuts
                                         
                                        Until one night
                                         
    
                                        Everything spins out of control
                                         
                                        Listen to Hell in Heaven on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
                                        The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every weekday.
                                         
                                        A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's no chance of bad news on the labor market.
                                         
                                        What does a bacon, egg, and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?
                                         
                                        Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsize indicators of inflation.
                                         
                                        What's behind Elon Musk's trillion dollar payout?
                                         
                                        There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.
                                         
    
                                        He's putting politics aside.
                                         
                                        He's left the White House.
                                         
                                        And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?
                                         
                                        CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things, whereas the PCE,
                                         
                                        index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.
                                         
                                        Listen to the big take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the IHeart radio app,
                                         
                                        Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
                                        Turning down to the economy, we've been trying to stick to this as much as we can,
                                         
    
                                        the two-tiered economy where people, yes, the S&P 500 record high just yesterday, gold,
                                         
                                        record high.
                                         
                                        So if you have some of those assets, you're doing well.
                                         
                                        But beneath the surface and behind the scenes,
                                         
                                        of stuff happening for people who are making less than $100,000. Let's go and put this up here
                                         
                                        on the screen. Lower income Americans are missing car payments. So more Americans are struggling
                                         
                                        to make monthly car loan payments, a sign that the lower income consumers are under growing
                                         
                                        financial pressure. The share of subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more pass has nearly
                                         
    
                                        a high of 6.5% and has lingered near that level. Repos have swelled. More drivers are trading
                                         
                                        in vehicles that are worth less than they owe, meaning that they're upside down. And lenders, such as
                                         
                                        CarMax and Ally Financial have warned investors about auto loan and performance.
                                         
                                        Quote, despite stubborn inflation and punishing tariffs, the U.S. economy on its surface
                                         
                                        appeared to hold up relatively well.
                                         
                                        The stock market has climbed.
                                         
                                        Company executives, for the most part, remain upbeat, and consumers overall are still
                                         
                                        spending, but it's largely those top 10% consumers, which are the weakness is that the
                                         
    
                                        auto market is one of the clearest indications that lower and middle-class income families
                                         
                                        could be starting to buckle because many Americans need cars to get around.
                                         
                                        auto loan delinquency is a telling gauge of financial hardship.
                                         
                                        That's usually a good proxy, right?
                                         
                                        It's like one of the last things that you're going to go bust on is repossessions.
                                         
                                        I'm not sure I'm not the only one, but videos of repo men literally go viral all the time.
                                         
                                        And it does feel, maybe it's algorithmic, I'm not sure, my own personal bias, but I do
                                         
                                        certainly see them go everywhere.
                                         
    
                                        And I think it combined that with some of the other stuff, particularly with the segment
                                         
                                        we're going to do later on with David Day.
                                         
                                        And the real risk to our economy right now, Ryan, is that, you know, if you're already making
                                         
                                        less than 100,000, like you're basically not bust, but you're really struggling. And if 50%
                                         
                                        of all consumer spending, just from the top 10%, a slight pullback in that is just enough
                                         
                                        to send us into a recession. Yeah. And what you said is exactly right. If you lose your car
                                         
                                        in this, you can't do anything, like, you know, small percentage of people live in a walkable
                                         
                                        enough that they can get to work, et cetera. That's not, that's not the situation. Right.
                                         
    
                                        like a massive portion of Americans. And so if so when you start struggling, yeah, your rent is
                                         
                                        the thing you stop paying first maybe because it's much harder to get evicted. And then then your
                                         
                                        credit card, your student loans definitely, you're not paying those. What are they going to do?
                                         
                                        Take your, take your degree back. Eventually you, but you keep paying the things that you need and
                                         
                                        you need your car. And then when you stop paying for that, and then now you're dodging the repo man.
                                         
                                        Yeah. And if you lose your car, then you're, you know, bum and rides to work. You might lose
                                         
                                        your job. You're, so it's a very downward spiral. That's why the bean counters look at this number
                                         
                                        because through all of that pain and suffering is an economic indicator, which is that if people
                                         
    
                                        are falling behind on their car payments, that means everything else is going really badly as well.
                                         
                                        That's exactly right. There's another metric I track very closely. Let's go and put here up on the
                                         
                                        screen. When I saw this, I said, sell everything, because this is the biggest indicator of impending
                                         
                                        economic disaster. The number of people who registered to take the LSAT in September 24 was 18,811. The number
                                         
                                        of people who registered to take it in September 2025 is 32,170. So, let's explain, shall we?
                                         
                                        What it is is that anybody who is my age is just old enough to remember.
                                         
                                        remember this, is back in the Great Recession, you lived through this, Ryan. You were entering the job
                                         
                                        market at that time. If you entered the job market between 2009 and 2012, you were dead, right? You're
                                         
    
                                        basically entering one of the worst wage job markets of all time. So what a lot of people did,
                                         
                                        especially those who graduated, let's say in 2009, is they said, okay, screw it. I'm just going
                                         
                                        to have to go to law school. I'm going to have to business school. Yes, I'm going to have to
                                         
                                        leverage myself with some debt, but hopefully things will have cleaned up. I'll have gained a
                                         
                                        credential in the meantime. It's kind of a stopgap measure for a lot of people.
                                         
                                        It's nice if you can afford it, but it's definitely bad if you're taking out hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans.
                                         
                                        Just to add to that, and then you go on.
                                         
                                        Let's say you graduated in 05, you've been working for two, three years.
                                         
    
                                        You just got laid off, and you're staring at now years of unemployment.
                                         
                                        Like, there was this whole thing back then, what they called the 99ers, people who would exhaust 99 weeks of unemployment.
                                         
                                        And so you're like, well, I could sit around and just suffer because, like, it's an extraordinary amount of suffering to be looking.
                                         
                                        for work. It's an assault on your dignity as well as your finances. And so you're like, well,
                                         
                                        if I'm going to be sitting around for three years anyway, might as well at least try to come out
                                         
                                        with a credential that can make me more employable down the line. Yeah. And actually what we saw
                                         
                                        is that the number of people who took the LSAT actually dropped after the economy started to get
                                         
                                        better. So it is one of those like very good indications about how people are doing. And eventually,
                                         
    
                                        as the economy got better, so let's say to 2012, it fell even more.
                                         
                                        precipitously. But the fact that it has such a large spike is genuinely one of those like
                                         
                                        2009. It's the exact same thing. I'm looking right here at the statistics, substantial jump of
                                         
                                        some 20 to 40% in law school applications just in the 2009 to 2010 school year. So this is the same
                                         
                                        number if you look at what that is almost double actually. So very similar metric. It just goes
                                         
                                        to show you at the lower level of the job market. There is a crushing feeling of this isn't going
                                         
                                        to get better. And so I might as well just take out some debt and deal with it. I will also
                                         
                                        add, though, this may be one of the worst times to do it, because not only do we have AI,
                                         
    
                                        which is on the horizon, but also, you know, for people who are out there, please pay very
                                         
                                        attention to the law. So there's something called a grad plus loan. Are you aware of what that is?
                                         
                                        Yeah. Right. So previously, this grad plus loan was one of the most used student loan
                                         
                                        federal programs for medical students and for law students. Now, the United States Congress in
                                         
                                        the recent legislation has capped that.
                                         
                                        at 50,000. And so there are some schools. I recently saw statistics that for the very first year
                                         
                                        ever, I think it's Santa Clara. I need to check. Pulling it back. Which law school. They had their tuition
                                         
                                        at 70,000. But then the law changed and they changed it to 50. I was like, oh, interesting. Interesting.
                                         
    
                                        Because the 70 was kind of a fake sticker price. It's all fake. All right. So there are two options
                                         
                                        that are right now. Is that one is that, yes, maybe law school prices will drop. I am deeply hopeful
                                         
                                        for that. Personally, I think we should make the grad plus zone zero. And then we're
                                         
                                        we'll really see what the market rate for a law school is. My guess is a couple thousand dollars.
                                         
                                        But the real like change here could be the Yale's, the Harvard's, let's say any in a T15,
                                         
                                        top 25 law school, any of those, they're not going to change. People are going to get leverage no
                                         
                                        matter what, whether it's grad plus or not. That's where I get scared, you know, for people,
                                         
                                        is that they'll not only even have access to the grad plus, only have to get a private loan.
                                         
    
                                        Private loan is going to have, you know, user's interest rate right now. And you could really
                                         
                                        get stuck in a deep hole. And you're basically banking on an entire career that works out when
                                         
                                        you have a technology environment right now. We just don't know. I mean, again, I'm not a lawyer.
                                         
                                        I know a lot. From what I know, AI has not come yet. There's still a lot of guild checks in the
                                         
                                        system. But I can't be the only person who says, hey, you know, especially the lawyers who I grew up with,
                                         
                                        their first two, three years in the industry, it was bullshit. It was like, you know. A document
                                         
                                        It was doc review.
                                         
                                        It was, you know, working, they would, when the partners went to bed, that's when you
                                         
    
                                        started to work and you have to do your research and make sure that the footnotes are, I mean,
                                         
                                        it's like investment banking.
                                         
                                        It's just pure scut work.
                                         
                                        And that's one of those where that I'm fairly certain chat GPT could do or at the very
                                         
                                        least you could use it to check your work and then come, but the workload is going to
                                         
                                        be much, much less.
                                         
                                        So that's where I really start to worry, you know, for some of these people, especially with
                                         
                                        the doc review.
                                         
    
                                        Oh, yeah.
                                         
                                        I mean, that's the definition of automated, right?
                                         
                                        Right.
                                         
                                        Yeah, exactly.
                                         
                                        Hopefully, I mean, I put a value judgment on it, there are so many, like, fake cases that seem to have been seeded into the world.
                                         
                                        I don't know if, like, a, Thompson Reuters or, like, some other of these companies that you have to pay to get access to their cases are, like, genuinely, like, seeding the world with, like, fake cases the way that, like, hippies would put, like, a spike in a tree.
                                         
                                        Interesting.
                                         
                                        Something's going on.
                                         
    
                                        that is putting in all of these made-up, completely hallucinated cases that then AIs are then
                                         
                                        writing into their memos that they're writing. And judges are coming down hard on them.
                                         
                                        Say, like, oh, this is clearly AI. You're sanctioned. You're fined. So at least you will need
                                         
                                        humans to, like, read the AI briefs and then actually go and check the cases to see if it's not
                                         
                                        hallucinating. Well, you should be checking it anyways. I can't tell you the number of times. I'll use
                                         
                                        chat GPT for research. And I'm like, wait, that's wrong. I mean, like, I know that that's wrong.
                                         
                                        right it's one of those where i think it might and then i'll say hey that's wrong and they're like oh you're
                                         
                                        right it is wrong but if you work at like thompson reuters or one of these other places reach out to me
                                         
    
                                        oh yeah actually that would be a great story and if i were them i would do it oh absolutely yeah
                                         
                                        yeah absolutely you know why not be like uh and jettie verse grim this is a powerful supreme court
                                         
                                        case and you can put it somewhere where the a i's will crawl it but nobody else can find it
                                         
                                        yeah my my dream is to get my name attached to a landmark case on marijuana and jettie versus the
                                         
                                        united states or jettie versus the state of colorado so my name can live forever
                                         
                                        All right, let's go and put this one up here on the screen.
                                         
                                        I need my Enjetti rights.
                                         
                                        You have the Miranda rights, Injetti Wright.
                                         
    
                                        There was actually a huge case here in Washington, D.C.,
                                         
                                        where a woman sued her neighbor for smoking weed and won, actually, and one.
                                         
                                        She is my personal hero right now.
                                         
                                        So the home sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 500,000.
                                         
                                        That is the largest gap ever recorded.
                                         
                                        So, you know, things are scary.
                                         
                                        And the reason why this scares me is the problem.
                                         
                                        Price still has not adjusted, right?
                                         
    
                                        So even though the sellers are outnumbering the buyers, the law of elasticity would tell
                                         
                                        you that the price should come down.
                                         
                                        Price is not going down, right?
                                         
                                        It's actually staying flat.
                                         
                                        And in some cases, in the big metro areas, they're going up, which I just don't understand.
                                         
                                        I don't know how it's possible, but there's something where it, I have said now this entire
                                         
                                        time, it feels like it has to crack, but it doesn't.
                                         
                                        And I think that's what scares me the most is we've lived through these.
                                         
    
                                        crazy times now since June of 2020. It's been five years, more than five years of an insane
                                         
                                        housing market. Doesn't sound that long. Let's say if you're 60. If you're my age and you're 33,
                                         
                                        that's a long time. I wasn't even married with a child five years ago, right? Your life can change
                                         
                                        rapidly in five years. Let's say you're 28 years old. You're right around that time.
                                         
                                        We're like, yeah, you know, I'm thinking about it. Oh, 7% interest rate. Terrible housing market.
                                         
                                        I can't afford it. I don't have the savings. Let's say I'm either getting laid off or I'm not
                                         
                                        getting the raise that I thought I was going to get.
                                         
                                        Inflation is eating away at my bottom line.
                                         
    
                                        Those are the people I think about the most right now.
                                         
                                        And I think what you're looking at there is a standoff.
                                         
                                        And I think, and this is the reason that you're not seeing the prices crash yet.
                                         
                                        You have, most of those sellers there have some type of 3% interest rate that they're
                                         
                                        sitting on.
                                         
                                        And so their monthly payment very low is something that they can afford as long as they're
                                         
                                        staying employed.
                                         
                                        And so they can, they can weigh it out the buyers.
                                         
    
                                        Buyers are looking at a 7, 8% interest rate, which sends you a,
                                         
                                        monthly mortgage costs, you know, absolutely through the roof, which changes the amount of house
                                         
                                        that you can then buy. So if you're a seller and you're selling on your 3% mortgage,
                                         
                                        now when you go to buy a new home, you're going to have to take out this 8% low.
                                         
                                        Right. So there's that huge gap. And so people are staring at that and saying, you know what,
                                         
                                        I need a lot more money to be able to get an equal house. And the person's like, well,
                                         
                                        why would I give you that much money when...
                                         
                                        No, I mean, it makes perfect sense.
                                         
    
                                        So it's two people just staring at each other,
                                         
                                        and I think the only way this breaks,
                                         
                                        I guess eventually the force of like economic decline could do it
                                         
                                        because enough people just can't make their payments anymore.
                                         
                                        But really, interest rates have to move.
                                         
                                        Yes, that's right.
                                         
                                        But they're not. That's a thing.
                                         
                                        They're just crazy world of where you have three and eight,
                                         
    
                                        like the buyers at eight and then the sellers at three,
                                         
                                        like trying to find a place where they can meet in the middle
                                         
                                        is proving to be impossible.
                                         
                                        Like, that's why you're seeing this record gap.
                                         
                                        That's such a good point.
                                         
                                        Yeah, and a lot of people are stuck in houses that they don't even want to be in.
                                         
                                        I know a lot of them.
                                         
                                        They have, like, three children, and they're like, I'm not moving.
                                         
    
                                        I can't afford to move.
                                         
                                        I literally cannot afford to move.
                                         
                                        Let's go and put the next one up on the screen.
                                         
                                        This is, we wanted to bring it back to the shutdown.
                                         
                                        There is, in fact, a shutdown happening, by the way, if anybody's forgotten.
                                         
                                        It's actually the fourth week of the shutdown, not that anybody cares, apparently.
                                         
                                        And so these Obamacare prices were the things that the Democrats really were zeroing in on.
                                         
                                        And there's been new public reporting now of these higher prices that are now actually revealed in over a dozen states.
                                         
    
                                        It says consumers are now facing greater costs for their 2026 ACA health coverage as Congress continues to debate whether to extend subsidies that help people afford their premium.
                                         
                                        So health insurance prices for next year under the Affordable Care Act now available.
                                         
                                        The annual enrollment period for Obamacare starts on November 1st.
                                         
                                        The costs are becoming publicly available piecemeal through state market.
                                         
                                        marketplaces. People shopping for coverage can now preview the cost they face from potentially
                                         
                                        expiring subsidies, sharply rising premiums in many markets, including California, New York,
                                         
                                        Nevada, Maryland, and Idaho. Man, California, New York, what, that's a huge portion of the entire
                                         
                                        U.S. population. Based on newly published information, a family of four making $130,000 in Maine
                                         
    
                                        would face an increase of $16,000 in annual premiums just next year because they would no longer
                                         
                                        qualify for generous subsidies, and that is from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.
                                         
                                        That's devastating, $16,000. That's after-tax income. That's one of those where you read and you're
                                         
                                        like, that can't be right. That has to be wrong. That's huge. An increase of $16,000. And like you
                                         
                                        said, after-tax income. So the family four making $130, $135. I guess technically tax deduct.
                                         
                                        Whatever. I'm not an accountant. Still. Yeah. Yes, you can write that off. That's true. But your
                                         
                                        income is not, you know, you're actually income is going to be more like 100, even though you
                                         
                                        can write a lot of that off. But that's brutal. And so what people, so what's, what's interesting
                                         
    
                                        here, let me read something from a related report, which says, so the expiration of enhanced tax
                                         
                                        credits will lead to out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees, increasing by an
                                         
                                        average of more than 75%. This is the doubling that you keep hearing about. So they're guessing
                                         
                                        that won't be complete in total doubling, which ensures, with insurers expecting healthier enrollees
                                         
                                        to drop coverage, that in turn increases underlying premiums. So just to make sure everyone's clear
                                         
                                        on what's going on here, we're going to double the price almost of these exchanges. A lot of people
                                         
                                        are going to look at that $16,000 price tag that they're facing for next year, and they're going to
                                         
                                        say, I can't afford that. It's not even a choice of whether or not I want to buy this. I don't have the money
                                         
    
                                        for it. So I'm just dropping health insurance. Insurers have already gamed that out. They know that
                                         
                                        they're estimating $2 million for next year and then increasing as it goes on. Okay, so it's the
                                         
                                        healthiest people who are the most likely to say, you know what? I just, I'm not, family is going to have to
                                         
                                        go no insurance this year. And so if you lose the healthy people from the pool, you then have
                                         
                                        to charge everybody else more. So not only are you losing the subsidy, which is driving the price
                                         
                                        up to 75%. They're estimating, then they're already forecasting two regulators that they're
                                         
                                        going to raise the underlying price by 20%. Yeah. That is a year-over-year increase that is utterly
                                         
                                        unsustainable and insane. Right. 20% in one year? It's horrible. But, you know, I keep coming
                                         
    
                                        back to what Crystal said with Corbyn Trent, which is, this is a devastating point. This is the
                                         
                                        devastating point. The whole fight is we can't afford to go back to normal Obamacare.
                                         
                                        Well, if this is normal Obamacare, this sucks.
                                         
                                        I said it in the time.
                                         
                                        Yeah, it's like, this is horrible.
                                         
                                        This is horrible.
                                         
                                        The only reason people signed up were because of pandemic-era subsidies for health insurance.
                                         
                                        And now that it's reverting back from people are like, whoa, whoa.
                                         
    
                                        I'm like, I didn't know that this is what the normal program was.
                                         
                                        And that's actually kind of a Republican talking point, which is not incorrect.
                                         
                                        It's like, if this was the normal marketplace, then what the hell are we doing here?
                                         
                                        I mean, I got some of these older figures.
                                         
                                        I got a, in Kentucky, a 60-year-old couple making $85,000 will face an increase of 23,700 in annual.
                                         
                                        They make 87,000. And their increase is a quarter of their income. I'm rolling the dice until I get Medicare. I mean, personally, right? If you're healthy, I'm like, let's, let's roll the dice. Right. Don't take any buses. Don't go on a cross. And that's what they expect people will do. And so costs are going to go through the roof. The best thing that people said about the ACA at the time was, well, this is a first.
                                         
                                        first step and they'll fill it in with subsidies. And then they did. And now they let them go.
                                         
                                        Now you have to fight to get them back. Yes, it's utterly absurd. It's outrageous. And it shows why
                                         
    
                                        you need universal coverage. Because without universal coverage, the healthiest people aren't in it.
                                         
                                        And then everybody else, everybody else pays more. So yeah, the politics play an interesting
                                         
                                        role here. Yeah, this is really what I want your opinion on. Because it does look like the Senate
                                         
                                        Democrats are going to cave. Right. Because so think of, think of, so if you're just listening,
                                         
                                        to this. This is Andrew Desdorio's Hill reporter saying,
                                         
                                        our Senate Dems eyeing November 1st as a shutdown off-ramp,
                                         
                                        Dems think they can argue it's no longer feasible to address the
                                         
                                        expiring ACA subsidies legislatively and make GOP own the resulting premium hikes.
                                         
    
                                        No decision yet, but this idea is picking up steam.
                                         
                                        So in other words, saying, okay, well, the exchanges open up for business on November 1st,
                                         
                                        and this is what we're fighting for. So if we get past November 1st,
                                         
                                        we can then save face and say, okay, look, we tried.
                                         
                                        We tried to save Republicans from themselves.
                                         
                                        We tried to stop Republicans from doubling your health insurance costs.
                                         
                                        They refused.
                                         
                                        Now they're doubled.
                                         
    
                                        It's done.
                                         
                                        Let's open the government up.
                                         
                                        Like so that's, and then you've had, was it Thune yesterday saying, I will negotiate.
                                         
                                        You know, and what Republicans have been saying is we will negotiate around these subsidies, but we won't do it with a gun to our heads.
                                         
                                        which is hilarious because it's like the exact reverse
                                         
                                        of what the party said during the last shutdown.
                                         
                                        There is no principle in process ever.
                                         
                                        Like, don't, if anybody claims that they believe in a process,
                                         
    
                                        they're lying.
                                         
                                        They don't.
                                         
                                        They just believe in the outcomes.
                                         
                                        So in the previous case, it was Democrats who said,
                                         
                                        why can't you negotiate with the government open?
                                         
                                        Because Biden was president.
                                         
                                        Yes.
                                         
                                        Now it's Republicans saying,
                                         
    
                                        why can you negotiate with the government?
                                         
                                        Because Trump president.
                                         
                                        Right.
                                         
                                        And that's all that matters.
                                         
                                        So Democrats could say, all right, look, we tried.
                                         
                                        And also, from a cynical perspective, Schumer, I'm not a Schumer's personally, but Democrats in general, they're personally, you know what, if Trump wants to hurt 20 million people and let the whole country know that he's doing it to them, then let him do it.
                                         
                                        Then let him do it. And we'll reap the political.
                                         
                                        Yeah, but then why'd you shut the government down for a month?
                                         
    
                                        Because nobody would have known otherwise. Like they would have gotten their increase and been like, oh, this is terrible. But like life sucks.
                                         
                                        Yeah. Now they can say, look, we told you Trump was doing this. We fought for you. Trump fights against you. That check your writing, remember Donald Trump's name while you're writing it. So that, I mean, that's their theory. I could see it. It's just a little weak for me. It's like if that's the political calculus and keep the government shut down. Okay. I mean, because again, you know, and Crystal's made this point, I'm sure you agree with it. If you ask those no kings people, yeah, there are going to be some signs about Obamacare. That's not what they're mad about, right? They're mad about ice. They're mad about.
                                         
                                        All this other stuff going on, right?
                                         
                                        So for them, they're like, screw you.
                                         
                                        Why should I fund you?
                                         
                                        You think these ICE agents aren't getting paid?
                                         
                                        Fine by me, right?
                                         
                                        You know, for a lot of them, they're saying there's no reason to fund this government.
                                         
    
                                        It make their life a little bit more difficult.
                                         
                                        Force them to do stupid shit.
                                         
                                        Like, I don't know, firing an artillery shell that explodes over the city of Los Angeles.
                                         
                                        I mean, if I'm a damn, I'm going to take that all day long, right?
                                         
                                        Yes, it's very painful for a lot of the, for the federal workers, et cetera.
                                         
                                        but, you know, it's, it's a, you, ponds have to be played in the, in the field of battle.
                                         
                                        John for Democrats is that Republicans only have to peel off a few, and they're good.
                                         
                                        Okay.
                                         
    
                                        So, Democrats as a leadership can want whatever they want, but if Republicans can get a couple.
                                         
                                        I don't know, we'll see.
                                         
                                        Like, but November 1st is, you know, it's still a ways away.
                                         
                                        Yeah.
                                         
                                        All right.
                                         
                                        Well, we'll see.
                                         
                                        We'll see, Ryan.
                                         
                                        I'm very curious.
                                         
    
                                        Hey, I'm Kyle McLaughlin.
                                         
                                        You might know me as that guy from Twin Peaks,
                                         
                                        sex in the city, or just the internet stand.
                                         
                                        I have a new podcast called What Are We Even Doing,
                                         
                                        where I embark on a noble quest to understand the brilliant chaos of youth culture.
                                         
                                        Each week, I invite someone fascinating to join me.
                                         
                                        me to talk about navigating this high-speed roller coaster we call reality.
                                         
                                        Join me and my delightful guests every Thursday and let's get weird together in a good way.
                                         
    
                                        Listen to what are we even doing on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
                                        Hello, America's sweetheart Johnny Knoxville here.
                                         
                                        I want to tell you about my new true crime podcast, Crimeless, Hillbilly Heist,
                                         
                                        from Smartless Media, Campside Media, and Big Money Players.
                                         
                                        It's a wild tell about a gang of high-functioning nitwits
                                         
                                        who somehow pulled off America's third largest cash heist.
                                         
                                        Kind of like Robin Hood, except for the part where he steals from the rich
                                         
                                        and gives to the poor. I'm not that generous.
                                         
    
                                        It's a damn near inspiring true story for anyone out there
                                         
                                        who's ever shot for the moon, then just totally muffed up the landing.
                                         
                                        They stole $17 million and had not bought a ticket to help him escape.
                                         
                                        So we're saying, like, oh, God, what do we do? What do you do?
                                         
                                        That was dumb.
                                         
                                        People do not follow my example.
                                         
                                        Listen to Crimless, Hillbilly Heist on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
                                         
                                        The Big Tick podcast from Bloomberg News keeps you on top of the biggest stories of the day.
                                         
    
                                        My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day.
                                         
                                        Stories that move markets.
                                         
                                        Chair Powell opened the door to this first interest rate cut.
                                         
                                        Impact politics, change businesses.
                                         
                                        This is a really stunning development for the AI world
                                         
                                        and how you think about your bottom line.
                                         
                                        Listen to the big take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon
                                         
                                        on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
                                         
    
                                        This is an IHeart podcast.
                                         
