Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 10/5/26: Iran Disrupts Hormuz Traffic, Yemen War Explodes, Trump Desperate Midterm Pitch

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

Ryan and Saagar discuss Iran disrupts Hormuz traffic, Yemen war explodes as Saudi backed forces launch counteroffensive, Trump desperate last midterm pitch.   Annie Jacobsen: https://www.anniejacobsen.com/   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com    Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week, I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I can talk to you for an hour.

You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey guys. Ready or Not, 2024 is here, and we here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, ad staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is

possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show people live for the pounds. Good to see you, Ryan. Nice to see you, Sager. So we have Iran. We're going to start off a little finance bro knowledge from our friend Ryan Grimm who's going to break down. Scott Bessent, who has decided to rue his braggadocious comment where he said, I am the house now. And he's like, well, what I meant was. He's like, well, the house doesn't always win, but eventually they win, right? Right. It's kind of similar on top of some developments out of Iran, specifically on the economic front, their oil minister

resigning. We're also going to talk about Yemen. Some crazy events actually happening right now as we speak, a Saudi-backed counteroffensive on the Houthis, while the Houthis are also encircling a strategic town. The United States apparently held a very high-level meeting over the weekend at Camp David, where Trump is mulling both escalation in Iran and direct military intervention in Yemen. Remember, originally greenlit the attack and then called it off actually while the aircraft were being fueled up. Then talk about midterms, absolutely shocking polling numbers coming out of the New York Times, Sienna, high-quality polls in multiple different battleground races that find a huge problem for the GOP in Alaska, in Texas, potentially even Kansas. So we're going to look at all of that

evidence, and we're going to, you know, steal man some of it a little bit. Ken Paxson, by the way, also another leaked audio clip where he just keeps, you know, drop an L. out here. He appears to face the toughest re-election campaign of any Republican actually in a battleground state, which is shocking, obviously, to be from Texas. So we'll break a lot of that down. We're also going to talk about this AI video case. Man, Ryan, this is the one which has shocked me more than anything, where a person's, what is it, his conviction was thrown, a sentence was tossed out after they used an AI video in court. where the deceased victim is depicted speaking in an AI-generated video to the defendant being like,

I forgive you. I don't know how any of this even happened. They got a sentence, eventually went to court. I mean, it's crazy. Apparently it was even used by the judge in their consideration. So, you know, that's right. You get AI videos and boomer judges, and apparently this is what happens. This is on top of a new company, which appears to have claims to pass, quote, the Turing test for video. We will play you some samples. You can make up your minds for yourself. Finally, I'm really excited to say this. Annie Jacobson, the author of Biological War, previously Nuclear War, a scenario.

She's going to join us. She has been on top of this apparent lab leak of a form of, what is it, pneumomic plague, which appears to have leaked from BSL3 lab, already caused the death of one of the researchers in the city of Akutsk, which is in Siberia, We did not from risk. Yes, yes. From risk.

I actually, I read a book once which heavily took place in our quotes. What is it? It's sort of the coldest cities in the world. Near Mongo. The middle of Siberia. Totally crazy, actually, placed. The fact that such a place even exists on a permanent basis. Anyway, that's where they have this BSL lab, where it's like anti-plague research,

and now somebody just died of plague. Russians locking down the place, already lying about what's going on. Many of us have seen this story before. And Annie actually specifically wrote about this plague scenario in her book. So we're really excited to be joined by her. And then finally, since it's just me today, and just, you know, no crystal to be like, are we sure we need to cover this daylight savings thing? No, I'm joking.

She probably would love me. Anyway, Trump is. Because of the fighting with Tom Cotton, she'd have been for. Yeah, right, right. Exactly. Every time I'm like, let's get the daylight savings to the show. Let's get gambling the show. Well, this time around, daylight savings, I actually think rates, you guys can judge for yourself.

Trump gave out Tom Cotton's cell phone. because he's so upset with him for blocking permanent daylight savings. And I know everybody gets confused. We are currently in daylight savings. In November, when we shift, we will go to standard time. That means the TLDR of it is more light in the morning, less light in the evening. Ryan and I will discuss. People know where I fall. I said, Tom Cotton. And Tom Cotton is, all hardcore warrior, has been, I've been in touch with his office many times over the years to provide research and just, you know, just general advocacy on behalf of this crusade. And he does not appear to be buckling as of right now. But Trump, you know, using all of his political capital,

I said this morning, Ryan, between Trump's embrace of weed, porn, gambling, daylight savings, and war with Iran, I think he was sent by God to punish me personally. Like me personally, to be punished, which is karmic, I guess, you know, that's karma. So anyway, and then finally, Ryan and I are going to do our AMA. So Ryan, take it away with our pitch. We actually have a very specific pitch for today. And speaking of punishing soccer, if we can actually go back to camera too, if you noticed come up on me while Ryan is talking. A little bit of light behind me right here. You see this? No light. Sorry, no light. Yeah, there's no light over here.

So we desperately need your support at this time. Sponsor a light for the low low cost. No, so yes. Do the we have electrical short and we need you to fix it. Go to breakingpoints.com, do the month free, and help us out here. That's right. And secondly, a month from now, you might be lying in your bed dying of pneumonic plague. That's exactly right. Would you want to spend every day from now until that day watching YouTube ads? Right.

Why would you want to do that? Yeah, you know, you might be dying, drowning in your own blood-soaked vomit in about 30 days. That's right. So you might as well. Money means nothing in that scenario. Right. So you might. And by the way, you're not.

spending anything because it's free month. Right, it's free. Your estate will then have to pick up the that's right. We can reconcile all of this with your lawyers should the time come if we ourselves are not drowning in their own blood. All right. So with all of that, let's get to Iran. Turning now to Iran, we got Scott Besson here, who is now walking back his whole I am the house now bragging when he said that the bond deals were going to go down. They ended up going up to the highest level in 24 years. Here's what he had to say. Last month you told the markets, I am the house now, they bet against you at their peril, do you regret saying, I am the house now? No, because look, the house doesn't win every hand. The house plays the percentages.

And, you know, like, look, that I, maybe they hurt some fragile egos on Wall Street that I always had respect for the market. And, you know, I always tried to look and think, like, what's the move after the move that, you know, if you have an ego, you lose a lot of money. But the market slapped back? No, it didn't. How did it slap back? Rates went up, but oil went up. I could say, okay, yesterday we had the first full allocation since we have expanded our treasury buybacks and rates collapse.

There's nothing causal there. It was coincident. The Financial Times, probably your favorite paper, said Bessent fails to break fever in U.S. bond market. What did you learn from that? Well, I learned that the Financial Times is anti-American, anti-business. And they have a fever. They're constantly trying to create a problem for the U.S. But let's leave that disgrace publication on London aside.

That disgrace publication in London aside. When he launched his economic deed A against Iran, he did it in an op-ed in the financial times. Forgotten, that's right, he did. Come on, buddy. Totally did. All right, break it down for us, Ryan. What is he actually saying? I mean, he's saying it's not my fault because oil prices went up and when oil prices

go up, then it, you know, pushes inflation through the economy, which creates expectations of a federal interest rate hike, which then drives up interest rates. So what do you want me to do about any of this? Yeah. That's basically his argument there. That's so funny. I mean, it's so, it's hilarious, too, because I am the House now, was one of the most declarative statements issued by U.S. wartime Treasury Secretary in what decades? I mean, it's just like,

I am the House. I will fix this. This is my thing. And it immediately fell apart and failed. Guess that makes me anti-American and what is it anti-business for saying that, you know, and the funny part is too, it's like presuming that he is part of the House. He's like, well, oil prices went up. I'm like, well, that's the House's fault too, bro. That's the U.S. government's fault. Right. You've been manipulating oil prices for months now and you finally lost your lost your grip on it. But yes, to say I'm the house now and then to have the biggest run-up in interest rates in a quarter century, a kind of reshaping of the global financial system immediately after your claim is incredible. He goes on here. We can roll A2 here.

Again, what I've learned that everyone in the market knows you don't win every hand, but you went over time. Everyone knows I'm a big basketball fan, big fan of John Wooten, big fan of Dean Smith, and how did they win? You trust the process, and you put a good process in place. And like what we can see with bond yields, that I would be concerned if we were having this some kind of idiosyncratic rise. It's been a global rise that U.S. market, U.S. bond performance since President came in, has been the best in the world.

So we are not seeing people sell treasuries to buy German bonds or Japanese bonds. And like I said, that I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think. So there he's basically saying the entire global financial system is broken. Yeah. Oh, right. Just not just ours. So that should make you feel better.

Also, trust the process means if you're the 76, you just stumble along for a decade and a half. And then you get LeBron James. Yeah, right. So Besson is going to hire LeBron James to fix the bond market. It's so ridiculous. You know, this whole, it's like when you said I am the house, what you're saying, By the way, the House is supposed to win. You know that, right?

And, yes, not just in the long ground, but on a general day-to-day basis. So let's put A-3 up here on the screen, which shows another problem for, quote, The House. There we spent the last couple weeks actually talking about the legitimate, it appears, fact, that there was a lot more oil that was coming out of the Strait of our news. We're not believing the United States government. We were looking to independent analysts, Rory Johnson, to Kepler data, to all of these others. people, Steel Manning said, I especially trust Rory on this question because he really interrogates kind of the deep assumptions. And so we've had him here many times on the show. And he was validating much of this. Tanker trackers as well, Sal, obviously from what's going on with shipping. All of them,

though, in the last 48 hours have now been pointing out, attacks on ships have been resurging in the Strait of Hormuz. And, you know, we covered many of these attacks, but there were additional ones that actually happened over the weekend. And after several days, without reporting, attacks, UK Maritime on September 28th began to report multiple different strikes. What was also interesting about all of these strikes, quote, all seven were attacked near the narrowest part of the Hormuz Strait and what we appeared to see is that they were shooting to kill this time around, to fully disable and to sink the ship. In addition, there was a tanker this morning. I don't know about but at least to save it. Or at least whatever. They don't care what happens. Really what they're saying

Well, if there's 2 million barrels of oil, they don't necessarily want it going under. 100%. But I guess from what I had seen, and not a military expert, but trusting some of the people that I had seen, previously when they would shoot, it would be disabling or warning shot, like, you know, not something that was designed. Now they're going for the engine room. They're specifically trying to take the entire ship. I'm just quibbling with sink.

I don't think they want to sink it. You're right. I mean, it'd be a problem for them, right? It'd kill dozens of sailors and you sink a bunch of oil here. You're absolutely right. So this is kind of a controlled game all around. What I've seen, and don't forget, people have died, like Indian sailors, other people have died already in this conflict.

From what I understand, though, here is that there was another ship this morning, a Greek ship where the IRGC came on the radio and said, listen, turn around or you're getting sunk. And they did. They actually did turn around. So big, pretty significant in terms of what has come out. What I also saw was this fascinating, this fascinating actually, like, there's this step, there's part of this analysis is there is a possibility that some of these tankers are secretly paying the Iranian toll. So there's a corollary to this where it, you know, previously it looked like,

wow, this is all because of the Iranian blockade. But apparently there are some indications that at least some portion of these ships may just be paying Iran under the table. In fact, I can prove it. And we can add this in post. Brett Erickson, oil analysts flagged this. On September 17th, the Treasury Department announced some new sanctions, and this kind of slipped under the radar, no pun intended. But in it, it says, quote, this is from the Treasury Department. Since June of this year, O-FAC designated, that means sanctioned. Sanctioned Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Iranian regime. So according to the Treasury Department, this sanctioned organization,

set up to receive money for letting tankers go through the strait has been sending money to the Iranian regime. Another thing. So people are, according to the Treasury Department, paying Iran to get their ships through. And over the two weeks since then, you did see a lot more. Great point. And you know, this is part of the other problem where people celebrate just the oil getting through. Rory flagged this. He was directly quoted in the Wall Street Journal. It says part of the surge may reflect exporters rushing barrels out before new escalation. Gulf oil produced. are currently shelling 30 to 40 million for a round-trip shuttle run in and out of Hormuz, which is $15 to $20 premium per barrel before the cost of insurance.

I mean, so you've got a $15 to $20 barrel premium just to get this stuff out of Hormuz on a highly inefficient, highly expensive, just for the tankers themselves, not to mention the, what, hundreds of millions of dollars of U.S. naval assets, U.S. Marines and sailors and Black Hawk helicopters that are all trying to move these things through. when you still got oil at where it is right now. Let me take a look at the current market price is somewhere around, yeah, about $102 a barrel, which reflects probably the situation happening in Yemen.

But if you have it all here together, this is just not sustainable. And look, I always want to try and present some of the other parts of this. So, like, this is to the Iranian strategy. Let's put A4 up here on the screen. And Scott Stevenson actually put this quite well. one of the reasons why today feels so crazy is that currently, as we see from this graphic,

if you're younger than 45, this is literally the first time in your entire life that you are experiencing real-time, real rising interest rate. The last time it happened was 1960 to 1980, which fundamentally changes the physics of the game, as he says, in a way that many won't be prepared for. I mean, I guess the most easy way to understand it is that money's expensive, right? It's not cheap. And you could make an argument that the entire reason that we had the VC, the VC and technological rise of the 2000s to today is because of cheap money. And there was an entire period which is known, you know, colloquially as ZERP, like the zero interest rate phenomenon, where zero interest rate alone was responsible easily for multiple, like giant busts, like

we work, for example. And like all of these other. crazy investments. But now when we have money being so expensive, obviously it's disaster for normal people like us, and, you know, what is it, mortgage rates or 7.2%, something insane right now. But I do think what he is pointing to is that when things feel insane in our economy beyond just gas prices, but also including home and rising rent and all these other things, it's because you actually are living through a period of genuine economic history. And that gets to Iran's strategy. They look at this. And they're like, that's it. I need that number. Just keep going up. As farther it goes up, the more

of this economy will get strangled in the long run. Yeah. And with zero interest rates, it encourages taking risks. So that that also encourages the kind of VC boom because you can't park your money anywhere and get anything more than like half a percent. Now you can park your money and maybe get five percent. Yeah, it's a decent return. And so when you're thinking about investing in this we work company, you're like, well, we could also just put it away here and get it. at 5% a year, which that compounds pretty quickly into very real money. So you're like, yeah, you know what? I'm not so sure about this we work thing after all. It's going to take a pass on that. And then you don't get what we've had over the last 20 years. Definitely. You know,

the other interesting part of it is AI, where, you know, the Trump administration needs AI to fuel the economy, but the AI capital expenditure is keeping interest rates even higher. So you have these two forces where simultaneously you need them but you can't screw them and it's screwing everybody else over in the entire economy let's put a5 up here on the screen wanted to mention this very strange i think you could just put it this way the u.s clearly believes that whatever happened uh in that base in the ukk raf fairford with the supposed terrorist and or what is it and or drunken lead drunken diesel thieves pick your poison the only point is it seems that the Pentagon believes it, because apparently yesterday, the Pentagon confirmed all B-1 bombers have now left

the UK. Quote, while operational security precluded us from confirming the movement in real-time, we can now acknowledge that all U.S. bombers that were deployed to Fairford have been redeployed to their home stations in the U.S. And just to add to this, apparently, as I understand it, what happened is that the B-1s were taken out in such a harried manner that their aerial refueled. had not even taken off in the United States and that they were scrambled effectively out of the country. Perhaps they believed it was an imminent threat. From five guys with a bunch of gas tanks, gas cans. I look, I don't know, Ryan. I mean, I'm just saying whatever happened, they're terrified. So look, it's not a good look, right? To be running scared from the UK?

I mean, it's one thing to go run scared from Kuwait. That's gone, right? With this already happened, all of our bases in the region have been destroyed, Bahrain, any of these places. the UK? I mean, we're talking about the Northern Island, and we have a base there, and it was unthinkable that anything was going to happen. And you have to, you know, dramatically withdraw your, what, one of your most sophisticated bombers from there out of fear of attack just goes to show some of the strategy there with real issues. Canadian women are looking for more. More to themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are of them. And that's why I'm.

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If anyone wanted to commit a murder, up here would be the greatest place in the world to hide the body. But someone will find it. He acted friendly. He talked friendly. He sounded friendly. They all knew that I did the scary boogie stuff, and they said, maybe she'll find out where this girl is.

I saw him violent. Backhanded her, pow! And that's exactly what made us all think he had something to do with him. The clock is ticking down, in the woods are calling. There are a lot of demons in Putnam County. but I've met the devil and he's real. I'm Paul Solitarev, and this is Season 2 of The Devil's Quarry. Listen to The Devil's Quarry Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

And to hear The Devil's Quarry Season 2 add free with exclusive content, subscribe to Lava for Good Plus on Apple Podcasts. I'm former U.S. Women's National Soccer team player, Carly Lloyd. I'm Fox Sports Reporter Jenny Taft. And on our new podcast, whatever it takes, we're talking motherhood, marriages, careers, and figuring out how to balance it all. And we'll discuss the game that brought us together because nothing is off limits. Do you remember your initial reaction when Fox called you to be a part of the World Cup?

I was like, no, I don't want to do it. You said no? I played with players that didn't, I don't think that they really truly love the game. I found the love with the ball at my foot. But in my head, it was the long game. It was like, I don't care what I'm being asked to do at Fox. I'm going to go get some reps, and I'm going to learn it and love it and embrace it. He said, this group of people will never be in the same room as part of the same team ever again in your life.

And it is your job to make sure that you enjoy the moment. You're proud of what you accomplish together. Listen to whatever it takes with Carly Lloyd and Jenny Taft. on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. At the same time, like I said, so I just showed you in all the ways the U.S. is screwed. You're running scared. You're removing the B-1s. The Treasury Secretary is doing a Mea-Kalpa over looking like an idiot saying, I am in the house now.

You've got the horrible rising interest rates, is high oil shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Let's give the other side of the coin. Let's put A6. I'm actually curious for what you think. Iran's top security official now warns, quote, of a dire economic crisis. So this is the security chief and apparently came after the U.S. sanctions

in a naval blockade. They say he made the rare admission on Saturday at a high-level government meeting about how to stabilize the economy after the reall plummeted from the launch of the war in February. Quote, the decline is accelerated in recent weeks that has made imports more expensive

and deepened long-standing costs of living crisis, which, remember, had sparked nationwide protests in December. that security forces crush. Analysts now say that the U.S. blockade has largely prevented Iran from exporting oil, depriving the country of its main source of revenue and making a fuel crisis. The oil minister apparently just resigned yesterday for, quote, personal reasons. Nobody really knows why.

And in recent days, multiple private sector employees have taken to social media say they're quitting their jobs because their salaries can no longer support them. obviously give the caveat, we have no idea what's happening in Iran. Stuff that you see highlighted on social media, I could guarantee you there's a bunch of social media posts. Could be organic, could be not, of people saying, screw it, let's take it the hit,

because we're at war. So I'm not going to present that this is the only picture, but it is one picture inside of Iran, that there are problems, and their security chief is acknowledging that. The flights in and out of the country were one of the significant ways that with the straight closed,

you know, Iran is continuing. its export and import operations. Obviously, it has huge land borders, so it can do that as well. But Trump's sanctioning of the airlines did have a significant impact. And yes, he is effectively choking the economy. The question, though, is how does that tactic strategically wind up with them surrendering to you? Because what the U.S. has also done is taken the blame for the problems that are going on in Iran from the Iranian government over to the U.S. government and Israel.

So the Iranians can say, look, we're at war. The U.S. and Israel are doing this to us. And they wouldn't be lying about that. Yeah, that's right. It's true. I think we're all reading this new book on the Weimar Republic. And it just reminded me that, and I've said this a bunch before here, that I can't think of a single example of a country that saw itself in an existential war. that surrendered because its economy was suffering.

That's right. There were thousands of Germans dying of starvation every winter. And the only reason they ever reached an armistice with the Allies was because the generals concluded that it was militarily unwinnable. It was not that, you know what, it's really bad on the home front. Now they try to blame it on them later with the whole stab in the back thing. But it was not the starvation. And the German economy in the 19th,

during World War I was way worse than the Iranian economy is right now. I've heard no reports of people starving to death in Iran. People are suffering and are deeply unhappy about the situation. But I just don't see how this goes from A to B with B being, okay, we surrender. Yeah, there's this theory. And it's been around now for literally over 100 years before the First World War. I remember the book, but I couldn't remember the name. It was called The Great Illusion.

And he said the economies of the major, this is 1910, this book is published, have become so financially and commercially intertwined, a war between them would be economically ruinous. And so the winner for the winner as well as the loser, and thus it would likely not be, it would be impossible to be fought. And then. All of that was true. Yeah. All true.

And yet, they did it anyways. And then there were even people, I think, so I remember reading this in, what's the guy's name? He used to work for you, Huff Post, Cain's biography. Oh, Zach Carter. So Zach Carter, his biography of John Maynard Keynes, I remember phenomenal book, highly recommend it. Well, I remember in the opening and parts of it where Keynes was working, I think he was working, whatever, the X-checker, whatever they call it, over there, where there was a genuine theory. They're like, guys, the war is going to end because we're all going to go broke. And then they were like, well, you can just print money. You know, we can just go off the gold standard. And when it's an existential crisis, money doesn't matter anymore, man.

Like, we're in the fight for our lives. I just think that that's- steps in print money. Exactly. So that's my point is that, like you said, things are bad in Iran. But look at another book drop. I recently read. It was called the Battle of Berlin, I think something about Berlin, the downfall by Sir Anthony Beaver. It's April 1945. Everyone's like, Germany's cooked. Guess what? They fought to the death, man. Because for them, it was literally existential. You had people that didn't even support Hitler. They hated the Nazis. Basically, they had supported them previously. But by that time, they're like, okay, clearly, this is all. lies. It's like, well, you know, at this point, we're fighting for one reason to protect your wife and your daughter from being raped and to make, because of that, we're all willing to put it out all on the line. People will literally fight and scratch and claw to the absolute death whenever it's that existential. Obviously, I'm not saying that that's where we are right now, but I think your point is so important that over the last 100 years or so, what compels surrender is absolute and total domination and cost. Either occupation or an atomic bomb.

That's it. And so at this point right now, I mean, these people, I feel horrible for them, but like they've got a long way to go before we start seeing rebellions in the streets and like the German, you know, for example, there's what member of the IRGC is going to come to the Ayatoll and be like, sir, we can no longer fight. Like, they would kill him at this point. Yeah. And also, the Israelis and the Americans have made very clear that they have no interest in like bringing the Shah back and creating some like utopian Iranian society. They're like, no, we want to carve this up, create a civil war and destroy your civilization. So people are like, oh, okay, well, that doesn't sound good either.

Good point. All right. Last thing I think here, oh, that I mentioned, A7, just to highlight, the Iranian oil minister, quote, resigned for personal reasons. Don't really know anything about it. Supposedly, he had, the reporting was that he had tried to resign before and they would let him. Who knows? I mean, he was in an impossible position. The head of the national oil company is now the oil minister.

Is it really? Yeah, that's true. All right. Well, see, I mean, very, very likely what they need is somebody who is innovative and they're like, okay, how much oil can you move by rail? How much oil can we get out through illegal means? How much oil can we put on a truck? What can we do to get things through? So it's, I mean, frankly, like, this is kind of bad.

Victory barrels. Come bring your barrels to the. Victory barrels. I mean, in times of war, this is very common. In fact, I think we should have more of it like here where if you have a bunch of generals who literally fail within the first several months, you're like, okay, you're fired. Like, we need somebody. Why is our secretary of- We're in a war of complete crisis? It's like, okay, well, then we have to cycle through

as many people until we find somebody who is actually competent at their job. We'll see what happens over there. But, all right, let's get to Yemen. This record is on. Miley is having a moment. New name. Closive shows.

So IHR Radio is sending you to experience it all. Life at the Hollywood Puff Lights, hotel, tickets, and $1,000 cash. Listen to Iheart new music for 10 minutes a day on the IHart radio app and click enter. Every day you listen is another chance to win. Stream Miley's new album, Bass Persuades, today. If anyone wanted to commit a murder, up here would be the greatest place in the world to hide the body. But someone will find it.

He acted friendly. He talked friendly. He sounded friendly. They all knew that I did the scary boogie stuff. And I said, maybe she'll find out where this girl is. I saw him violent. Backhanded a bow. And that's exactly what made us all think he had something to do with him.

The clock is ticking down and the woods are calling. There are a lot of demons in Putnam County. But I've met the devil, and he's real. I'm Paul Solitarev, and this is season two of the devil's quarry. Listen to The Devil's Quarry Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And to hear The Devil's Quarry Season 2 ad free with exclusive content, subscribe to Lava for Good Plus on Apple Podcasts. I'm former U.S. Women's National Soccer team player, Carly Lloyd. I'm Fox Sports Reporter Jenny Taft.

And on our new podcast, whatever it takes, we're talking motherhood, marriages, careers, and figuring out how to balance it all. And we'll discuss the game that brought us together because nothing is off limits. Do you remember your initial reaction when Fox called you to be a part of the World Cup? I was like, no, I don't want to do it. You said no? I played with players that didn't, I don't think that they really truly love the game. I found the love with the ball at my foot. But in my head, it was the long game. It was like, I don't care what I'm being asked to do at Fox. I'm going to go get some reps, and I'm going to learn it and love it and embrace it. He said, this group of people will never be in the same room as part of the same team ever again

in your life. And it is your job to make sure that you enjoy the moment. You're proud of what you accomplish together. Listen to whatever it takes with Carly Lloyd and Jenny Taft on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Turning now to Yemen, we were talking about the spiraling situation, obviously with oil, but this is actually one of the precipitating reasons of why. Let's put this up here on the screen.

So big news out of the weekend is that the top cabinet members huddled for hours at Camp David on Friday to discuss the next steps in the Iran more and the Saudi-Houthi conflict in Yemen. The highly unusual meeting was not announced by the Trump administration. And here's why I should scare you. The last time a similar meeting took place was June of 2025 days before Israel went to war with Iran. The participants included the vice president, the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the White House envoy Steve Wickoff, CIA director, chairman of the joint chiefs, and the Treasury secretary, quote, things were decided or at least deeply discussed, whatever that means.

Trump is reconsidering resuming major combat operations in Iran, quote, now I have to make a decision. Either Iran signs a deal or won't exist any longer. Obviously, he said that many times. But the more important thing that was discussed was direct intervention in Yemen. when he was asked about what his next move would be. He said, if I told you, you would have a major story, but you'll see it's working out very well. Iran is not doing well. And then as of this morning, let's go ahead and start with some video, actually, that is breaking just this morning out of Yemen.

We're going to start, guys, with the first I showed you, where immediately yesterday, the Yemeni government, backed by the Saudi government, has actually began advancing near the Bab al-Mandep straight as of this morning. This is literally coming out of them. Remember, propaganda video, and that's a caveat, too, for the Houthis. They're like, look, we control Bab al-Mandab. There's no exact evidence of that, but it's a town, I believe, which is near the direct Bab al-Mand-Dep straight. What's additionally important, really, is the dedication of so many Saudi resources.

So it appears, Ryan, over 100 targets were bombed by the Saudis as of this morning, put B2, up here on the screen. This is from the BBC. They announced, quote, all-out war to reclaim this land. I mean, one reason why is that you should be relatively skeptical, as, as you know, we've been watching this conflict for decades. The Saudis have been bombing and have been renouncing all-out wars for like 12 years. Like, you know, it never actually works. And in fact, in the long run, the Houthis have gotten much stronger. They shocked the world, obviously, when they took over the entire Bob Almond, and apparently appeared to be encircling one of their strategic towns, apparently in Yemen, even right now, why all of this is happening.

So, yeah, what's your read on the situation? So what I'm hearing from the drop site newsroom here is that it does appear to be the case that they recaptured Dubob, which is a, which is a key area along the coast. They have not seized any of the islands, so they don't have control of the strait. This is the Saudi-backed forces there. They did take the airport nearby there, and apparently they charged kind of down the coast with these, and across the coastal plains with heavily armored vehicles, which, you know, they, which, you know, these are, you know, Saudi and UAE, but most, at this point, mostly Saudi, Saudi purchased weapons.

And they're also bombing the capital, Sanaa at this point. So it does show that this is this group called the Giants Brigade, which is founded by the UAE, but they kind of switched over to the Saudi side. It does show that they have the capacity to hit back. Now, what this group of deep thinkers at Camp David came up with remains to be seen. But I would be very surprised if there was anything that they could put up on the whiteboard that they haven't already tried, as you said, multiple times over the past decade. Apparently the U.S. now, according to reporting, we're back to doing refueling flights, which Trump quit. It's a very controversial policy. He quit in 2019 when there was a war powers resolution that actually Rokana and was a Massey, maybe, even pushed. And under pressure. I think that case as well. Yeah.

Oh, yeah, I think that was, yeah, that's right. Yeah. And so they ended the refueling, which was our, you know, most significant participation in the bombing campaign, along with like, you know, providing the jets and the weapons, the training and the maintenance and the targeting. and basically doing everything. And so in May of 2025, Trump reached a bilateral ceasefire with the Houthis. And the Houthis have abided by it throughout the entire Iran conflict

by not attacking the United States and the U.S. has also abided by it by not attacking the Houthis. MBS has begged Trump to come back in. Trump doesn't want that smoke because enormous amounts of shipping go through the Red Sea. Well, also our Navy is tied up in the Strait of Hormuz. I actually didn't even make the show.

It's a huge piece of news. Third carrier is literally on its way right now to the Strait of Hormuz. So even more, and I believe a few thousand more troops have been deployed there as well. So keep that in mind. I mean, that's one thing. And we should flag here with this Camp David meeting. Every single time there's been a U.S. military buildup under Trump, they've used it. It's never been for defensive purposes.

Ahead of Venezuela, if you would just follow the naval movements, you're like, something's going to happen. And then, lo and behold, something happens. Before, what was it, Midnight Hammer in June 2025, three carriers in the region, midnight hammer. Then before the operation in February, you got three carriers in the region, there you go. You had an all-out war bombing that happened on Iran. So you could put, you know, every single, they've given us no reason to say, oh, it's just for, you know, whatever, for stasis operations. If that were the case, then you wouldn't be cycling more material in the region. Yep.

And when Trump reached the ceasefire deal in May 2025, he said he was shocked at the amount of kind of pummeling that they were able to take. He's like, these guys are tough. It's one of Trump's funnier press conferences. He's like, I was planning this, he was planning this like 90-day war against him. And then like, after 40 days, he's like, they're too good. Like their ability to take our MQ-9s out of the sky. Remember, a couple fighter jets fell off of aircraft carriers because the aircraft carriers were having to move so fast to dodge the ballistic missiles that were coming their way.

And so he's like, all right, enough of this. Which was smart. Yeah, yeah. And reach the deal, okay, we won't shoot at you, you don't shoot at us. Imagine that. But that's the problem is that for the Houthis, if we're back to refueling flights, if we are back to full support and obviously an all-out war in addition to what's happening with Saudi Arabia, which is all paid for entirely by the United States, it's a question

for them of how long they're going to sit there and going to take it. Let's put B3 up here on the screen. Houthis have still been claiming some major attacks. So the New York Times actually shows to the extent of how much the United States is helping them. They say more than 200 U.S. intelligence and military analysts are currently in Saudi Arabia. Arabia, helping provide assistance to the Yemeni allies. In addition, what they point out is these claimed Houthi attacks on obviously strategic assets in Saudi. The most significant one is this morning, and I'll contextualize it, it is very disputed. So this morning at 444 a.m. Eastern time, AFP, Al-Gonnes-Refress, reported east-west oil pipeline pumping halted after new attack. It was followed

two hours later by a Bloomberg news report that says Saudi East-West oil pipeline is said to be flowing as normal. Who knows? Yeah. Aramco has nothing to say. They won't tell us exactly what's going on. I think you could say for certain that the Houthis did probably launch a drone at the East West pipeline, which previously they shut down for a week. They apparently attacked something called a pumping station, which is less critical than destroying the pipeline itself. Perhaps that's what it was. It was down. It was off for a few

hours, something like that, but nonetheless, it shows the fragility of the oil system. And it's another one of these situations where I'm like, am I missing something here? Because this seems like a very obvious strategic problem that you have a country that is very rich and dependent on keeping its oil flowing in order to keep its cash flow going. And you have another country that is insanely poor, one of the poorest in the world and has very little to lose, but has a very impressive drone and ballistic missile program that can target the rich country's oil infrastructure. That does not seem to me to be the kind of scenario where if you're the rich oil country, you want to get into a forever war with the poor country that has

nothing to lose and a ton of ballistic missiles and drones. Right. So I genuinely don't understand what I'm missing and why they continue, they continue this. I think the only thing I can come up with is that MBS rose to power on the back of being kind of the defense minister in launching this war, and it would be such a blow to his prestige. Oh, they can never surrender. That he personally would get overthrown if he admits that he has lost this. And so he will take the entire country down with him before he does that. So, okay, maybe I get that.

Problem with absolute monarchies. It turns out they're bad. Midterms, he's not so worried about the midterms. But before up here on the screen, just to show you some of the other things are happening, that you may see somewhat of a decline or at the very least a stoppage of the rate and the rise of diesel prices over the next month or so. And that is because the G7 agreed under duress to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves. Note, I said here, under duress. And that is because apparently this came as a direct result of Trump ahead of the midterms telling the G7 and specifically the European nations who are heavily reliant on the United States and obviously Japan in there as well.

They're like, look, you can use your SPR right now or we're just going to do a diesel export ban. I don't think he ever actually would have done a diesel export ban, but they decided to just basically bend the knee to the Trump administration. Why do you think they didn't want to do it? Oh, so according to one of the oil analysts, Javier Blas, who I read, they wanted to save it for winter, which makes sense. Because they're heading into potentially a bad winter with diminishing diesel reserves. Remember, too, their heating system is a lot older apparently than ours, it's not as efficient. They're not, when I say less efficient, I'm saying what it is is very reliant on all these imports, specifically, from the United States or previously from Russia or from the Middle East. So Europe's like, we don't want to burn through all of our winter reserves to save you one seat in Iowa.

Exactly right. And Trump's like, do it. They, yeah, so he basically forced them to do it. Heavily actually controversial decision, at least amongst the energy community in Europe, because they're like, no, we shouldn't do this. They're like, we need to wait. Who knows what we could be sitting with in November and in December, but they decided ultimately to buckle. So likely, this is kind of my guess, now that I can see the bigger picture, the diesel export ban and the pressure with the G7, they, knew that if the war in Yemen escalates, that's going to send the price of oil dramatically up.

So what they want to do is do this in addition to put B5 up here on the screen is apparently the U.S. is going to loan up to 40 million barrels of oil from the SPR, the very last batch from one of these global SPR release deals, is they're trying to cushion the future blow. Now, part of the problem with that is that the original SPR release was supposed to cushion the blow entirely. And yet the SPR is the, what, the lowest level since 1982 or something? Yeah, I think it's down to 280. It's like from its inception. And it can only really get down to 250. Right. Something about salt caverns and implosion. The caves start to collapse or something. Yeah. We know enough about this. I'm not learning anymore. I refuse. Yeah, that's right.

I refuse to learn more about salt integrity, salt cavern integrity. All I know is that the people who are knowledgeable tell me it's not good. And yet, even with all this, the national price of gasoline this morning, $4.36 a gallon, and diesel sitting around 632 a gallon. The all-time high is $6.52, so only about 20 cents off of the all-time high, which was only like, you know, two weeks ago. So you can see here, it's not exactly trending in the right direction for everybody, things hovering right around that $4.35 a gallon. And what they say is that if the ESS-W pipeline does fully go off, even with all of this, craziness in Hormuz, which we just talked about, when you put it together, you are facing a very

dangerous situation for the oil market, and especially going into the November and December, heating demand. Apparently, we're very lucky. Something about El Nino means that we're not going to have that many hurricanes this year. It's like one of the first, whatever, like September's, there was no hurricane in the Atlantic and forever. So we're actually, this is a dream scenario, because at least the refineries and the Gulf are not currently under threat. So, I mean, that's a very far. Who knows? I don't know. I mean, something crazy could happen and then you have a hurricane, and there you go. We're going to see it all over again. Could also just end the war and give a run its frozen funds back.

Yeah. We could do that. It would be a lot cheaper. Certainly would. It'd be a lot easier, too. It's their money. Give them their money back. Just give them, we're like, hey, here's $200 million, and we're just going to leave, and, you know, we wish you the best. We're going to sign some fake agreement on IAEA. We'll just forget any of this ever happened. I actually think they would take that deal. Of course. Okay, sure. All right, let's do it. And that's it. But that would be smart.

Obviously for our country, it would save us a lot of money. I think it's what most people at this point would want. You're going to hold your nose and be like, yeah, it sucks to sign a deal with the Iranians, although I'm not sure so many people who care at this point. But Israel, you're right, would not stand for that. So speaking of all that damage, let's get to the midterbs. This record is on. Miley is having a moment.

New name, books and shows. So I-R radio is sending you to a... Experience it all. Life at the Hollywood Polites, hotel, tickets, and $1,000 cash. Listen to Iheart new music for 10 minutes a day on the IHart radio app and click enter. Every day you listen is another chance to win. Stream Miley's new album, Bass Persuades, today. If anyone wanted to commit a murder, up here would be the greatest place in the world to hide the body. But no one will find it.

He acted friendly. He talked friendly. He sounded friendly. They all knew that I did the scary boogie stuff, and they said, maybe she'll find out where this girl is. I saw him violent, backhanded him, pow! And that's exactly what made us all think he had something to do with him. The clock is ticking down, and the woods are calling. There are a lot of demons in Putnam County,

but I've met the devil, and he's real. I'm Paul Solitarev, and this is Season 2 of The Devil's Quarry. Listen to The Devil's Quarry Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And to hear The Devil's Quarry Season 2 ad free with exclusive content, subscribe to Lava for Good Plus on Apple Podcasts. Welcome to Decoding Women's Health. I'm Dr. Elizabeth Pointer, chair of Women's, Health and Gynaecology at the Adria Health Institute in New York City. On this show, I'll be talking to top researchers and top clinicians asking them your burning questions and bringing that information about women's health and midlife directly to you. A hundred percent of women go through

menopause. It can be such a struggle for our quality of life, but even if it's natural, why should we suffer through it? The types of symptoms that people talk about is forgetting everything. I never used to forget things. They're concerned that, one, they have dementia, and the other one is, do I have ADHD? There is unprecedented promise with regard to cannabis and cannabinoids, to sleep better, to have less pain, to have better mood, and also to have better day-to-day life. Listen to Decoding Women's Health with Dr. Elizabeth Pointer on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you're listening now. Turning now to the midterms, Trump continues to barnstorm the country and give the most inspiring pitch ever,

which is you may literally hate the Republicans running, but you have to vote for them, followed by some clownish behavior by the candidates themselves. Here was one example from Ohio, name-checking Vivek Ramaswami before he almost dropped a child. Let's take a list. You're voting on voter ID, go out and vote, even if you hate John Eustad,

even if you hate Vivek Rameswami, you're going to go out, you're going to vote, and then you're going to pull their triggers. But nobody hates them. They're so freaking good. Okay. Voter ID. Wow, that's, John, voter ID is on the ballot. Oh, I think that. There you go. Whoa. Big guy. Oof, those rough one there for Vivek. I will say in his small defense, not that I'm some great fan of Vivek, you as a father of four, you know, when they go limp, it's real annoying.

You know, when they go limp and you're trying to pick them up, you're like, how does this 30-pound meat sack? You know, like you're trying to pick it. So, you know, small defense there. But regardless, it's not good. It's like they say in the courtroom, don't ask a witness. That's right. A question you don't know the answer to you. Don't pick up a child that you don't know if you don't know how they're going to react.

And even if you do know them, even if you're their parent, they might still go for literally no reason. But, you know, for Trump there, it's just the, it's the least inspiring pitch that you could possibly have. And it is funny because it fits this whole. I hate them, fits with some of the current polling. So let's go ahead and put, here's an amalgamation of the New York Times Siena poll. We're going to spend a lot of time on this. Let's put it up here on the screen. What they show in this summary is you have perhaps the most shocking number.

It's not just Texas. It's actually Alaska, although there are signs here. So they show Alaska Mary Peltola plus seven. And I'm going to get into that number specifically because there's some very interesting dynamics in that race. then Texas, they have Tala Rico plus five. Ohio, Sherrod Brown, plus three. Michigan, El Ciyadh, plus five. I wouldn't call that shocking. That one was pretty much expected. But here it is. Kansas tied, tied, a tie race in the state of Kansas. Iowa, Hinson plus one. And then, Ryan, I'll definitely lean on you for this. Collins plus three in a state of Maine. Huge problem there for the Troy Jackson campaign. Let's put C3 up here on

screen. This is Nate Cohn's write-up of the New York Times. Siena poll, I'll read from some of it. He says, on paper, the Democrats path to winning the Senate, November is very daunting. They need to flip at least two seats that President Trump won by 11 percentage points or more. No party has pulled off a similar feat since 2008. However, once, and you look at some of these new polls for Democrats, what they show is some of the breakdowns in some of the strength that the GOP has had over the years. Obviously, number one is Trump. Trump himself is not on the ballot, and two, he also is dramatically unpopular whenever it comes to his approval rating. So they say across the five states, the president's approval rating is just 40%, with 57%

who have an unfavorable view. That is not much better than his ratings in recent national polls, and they represent a significant decline in his support since our last polls in these four states in June. Since then, his ratings have fallen by five net percentage points. There are two basic explanations for this. One is that his ratings of continues to slide everywhere, not just in these states. Another possibility is that he is suffering disproportionate losses in these five Republican states. Demographics alone are not a sufficient explanation. It's something more like greater exposure, as we've hammered home on this show, to high diesel prices in the farm belt. And I don't think I can stress that enough for the Kansas, the Iowa numbers, is that these

farming economies, when you're so heavily reliant, a swing in in one direction. You don't have a tech industry or, you know, or the government, like, government employment or, you know, some other, like a diversified economy. When you are so all in on one thing, we know what that does whenever we've looked at Michigan, for example, in the past, for auto workers. Like, you know, GM goes down, the whole state goes bust. That's the, that's the biggest exposure that they have inside of this, Ryan. And the irony is that Kansas is also a manufacturing state. And bizarrely,

this wouldn't be what you would think automatically, Trump's tariffs have actually really punished Kansas' manufacturing base. Yeah, I didn't realize that either. Because there are so many of the kind of the inputs into the manufacturing capacity of the plants in Kansas are coming from overseas and then they're being, and then they're assembling things here, selling them here and then exporting.

And so the two major industries of Kansas, manufacturing and agriculture, are both taking a whack. Plus, you know, there's plenty of trade with Canada that's messing them up. Plus, that costs of labor going up because you saw the Republican Center there complaining about ice raids in southwest, Kansas. So I'm actually a little surprised that. Kansas is even more in play than Iowa, but you know, that's all within the margin of error. Right, exactly. Everything's... And they didn't have Nebraska up there.

No, they didn't. Which is interesting. They didn't poll that because Dan Osborne is not a Democrat. He's an independent. Exactly. But you throw in Nebraska, Idaho, you know, being something that people have to worry about, Montana. There's an independent and a Democrat running in Montana, and the Democrat, the bottom is just completely falling out from her. She's going to end up being a non-factor by November. Montana is in play for Democrats as well. I saw that South Dakota, which is not in play, but it's normally like a 40-point romp for Republicans, and they're up by like 10 or something.

Right. Exactly. So enough to win, but it's an indication that like the headwinds are fierce. What's important actually, which Nate points out, and this is something which really does show in the polling, is that Democrats have something going for them, which is beyond Trump and even the Trump. structural is a significant advantage in candidate quality. So, for example, in all five states that they polled, more voters view the Democrat favorably than unfavorably, while more voters view the Republican candidate unfavorably than favorably a triumph for Democrats in reliably Republican states because they have managed to find candidates who are both personally appealing and ideologically acceptable to a red state voter. I feel like that is so important because the biggest

problem the Democrats have had is being tied to their national brand. And ironically, the Republicans have the opposite problem, where even though some of them have broke, a hint and breaks with Trump on Iran. Mike Rogers says, let's ban data centers. Let's get out of the war with Iran. They're so tied to Trump and with MAGA, the brand nationally. It's like the Obama problem from 2010. No matter how blue dog you are, you're a Democrat, you're in the same party as Obama. So now the Republicans have the same problem where Trump's toxicity will drag down everybody across the board because they can just point to that person wearing a maga hat, that person in appearing at a rally with Trump. Texas they point to is actually the like number

one problem in a nutshell. Put C4 up here on the screen and I'll read a little bit from their analysis, for example, on Texas. Of all the polls, none capture the Republican challenge better than Texas. Democrats are cooking with the same recipe in all five states. Texas is the one where Republicans have contributed the finest ingredients. The president's approval rating has fallen to just 38. You know he loved writing that sentence. Yes, he did. Has fallen to just 38% among likely voters, the same as in our last national poll. Mr. Paxton is the least popular of all 10 Senate candidates that were tested.

All of this is occurring in a state where Hispanic voters, who swung hard towards the Democrats, represent a large share of the electorate, while the GOP is spending hundreds of millions to try to bring down Tala Rico, so far his candidacy appears essentially undamaged. His favorable ratings actually ticked up in June. Only 40% say he's too far to the left, unchanged from 39%, and less than the 47% who say Paxton is too far to the right. If there's a glass-half-full interpretation for Republicans is that the poll found a very favorable electorate for Democrats. If the poll is right about who will show up to vote, then many Trump voters, especially Hispanic and young Trump voters, will stay at home. At the same time, any influx of Democratic-leaning voters would end up.

enter the electorate, and together that electorate jolts to the left. If the 2024 electorate did show up to vote, however, the race would be a dead heat. And so I do feel like that is a major problem. And the bigger problem for Paxton, he actually said it himself. He just keeps getting caught on leaked audio. So guys, let's go ahead and do C7. Let's take a listen. Which in a federal race comes from other people a lot of times, which you don't control. So I have a little control over my bucket. That's about it. In my little bit of time that I can go out and get to as many people as I can.

But I've never been interested, but I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it's all coming, you know, from D.C. And I don't control the message or what we're doing. And I can't, I have no, I don't have the ability to change anything. So I have to live with whatever I've got. So it is a challenge, and it's, that's what the, hopefully this polling will help us figure out. make the hard office if we work so hard to get, make sure that we are maximizing every cent so that people understand the difference between him and me.

So people understand the difference between him and me. Everything's being controlled by D.C. Also, if any of you were watching the National Football League yesterday, you may have been a customer like me sitting in the Northeast, watching television and watching Ken Paxton ads and saying, what the hell? I was, I actually thought, I'm like, did my YouTube TV? forget that I live here? I'm like, do they still think that I live in Texas? What is going on? So apparently, this is so funny. No, it is a TV market problem. So this is from Ed O'Keefe.

If you're seeing political TV ads during football for elections far away from where you live, that's because at this stage in the cycle, it is less expensive to buy a TV ad during a regional or national NFL game than it is to buy locally because there's more inventory nationally. So it is more expensive to buy 30 seconds in Des Moines or Dallas if there's no airtime left there than it is to buy nationwide. So it was actually cheaper for the Paxton Super PACs to blanket the nation than it was just to buy specific airtime on what was it, I guess, the Cowboys and Texans, whatever that particular regional market was. So it was easier for them to just blast it nationally. I saw all kinds of reactions. People were like, I'm sitting here in Rosalind, Virginia, hearing about Tala, and Chicago in charge.

trance. I'm like, how is this even possible? I really thought it was a personal thing. I was like, I must be going crazy. I was like, YouTube TV must think I live in Texas again, even though I've lived in like 16 years. But that's apparently what happened. Just a comically bad candidate, too. Oh, just. And then to... Even here, listen to him with his donors. It's been like, well, it's not my fault. It's actually Trump's fault. And we're trying, I guess. I'm being controlled from D.C. What an incredible thing to say in October of an election year. Vote for me. I'm controlled by... The people in D.C. So funny.

All right, let's put, what is it, C5 on the screen. I do want to give a reality check. This is from Ryan Gurdowski. He says, if Colin survives, Dems need to flip three Senate seats in a double-digit Trump state. Polls say it's a guarantee. Only eight races in the last 25 years

have voted for POTUS by double digits and then flipped a Senate seat to the opposite party. A blue wave could be harder than it seems. I think that's, you know, it's one of those where we, I don't think we're presenting it as a foregone conclusion. I think we try very hard on this show to be like, look, let's contextualize how crazy this is. The polls say one thing.

We will obviously find out on election day. What do you think, you know, going in this, especially with Troy Jackson, because you know him a little bit. You have a lot of good reporting on Maine. He seems to be really whiff in this one. He doesn't seem to be playing it well. Big time. And it is definitely possible that we could be up here on election night and saying, wow, they came really close in Kansas. they came really close in Iowa.

Brown ran an amazing race in Ohio. They came so close. Dan Osborne ran a great race in Nebraska, but he's losing by a half a point. You could imagine Republicans kind of running the table on a lot of these and just holding off. Yeah, let me pick up on that. One of the reasons why this is outside of Maine

is this happened in Virginia. Remember with the redistricting fight? Is even though the Democrats won, Republicans came out like crazy to vote. This is when Trump was unpopular. And that's because for them, they were like, hey, you're literally going to strip us of all representation in our state.

We're at least going to fight a little bit. It's like we're going to come out and just be like, hey, we exist, actually. We're all going to come out to the ballot off of your election, some crazy, you know, national or statewide ballot. And they all came out to vote. And so I look at that and I just think,

this is just me being from Texas. the whole, like, it's a machine, the whole economy, the whole industry, everything runs on Republican governance, like from the top down, from taxes to oil, to the data centers, the power grid. I mean, it literally is a machine top to bottom that has not lost a statewide election since, like, I was, before I was born. Like I'm trying to think, Anne Richards, you know, somebody like that at a statewide level. Lloyd Benson, these people are ancient figures. I mean, I talk about Benson. He was their last Democratic senator.

He's the guy who made that quip, I knew Jack Kennedy. That's how old he is. He literally served with Kennedy in the Senate. So I'm like, I don't know. I mean, I just feel like for the evangelicals, how much is at stake for them? I mean, their power, because, look, the evangelicals, obviously, why do they care about the Senate? Anyone want to tell me you got a bunch of freaking 90-year-olds in the Supreme Court, right? So Tala Rico is not going to vote to confirm anybody who's pro-life.

I mean, look, I'm not saying you care or I care. I'm saying these people care a lot, and they will crawl over broken glass. So I don't know. That's why I have trouble I have trouble with it. And to your point about Maine, it's quite possible a bunch of these Democrats win, and Maine and Susan Collins still holds on. Troy Jackson has- Yeah, what's going on? Let's just do this.

So, what's going on? So, Grand Platner won with the backing of 10,000 plus volunteers. And, you know, huge, small donor base. He was going, he was holding multiple events a day all throughout. It feels like he met almost everybody in Maine during his primary. And his volunteers were hardcore. I was there before the primary. I was out there taking a walk and literally in the middle of the rain.

These guys like, hey man, you want to talk about Graham Platner and have free ice coffee? I was like, wow. I was like, oh. Yeah, exactly. guys out here in the middle of nowhere offering free coffee. Exactly. So 10,000 plus. Maine is a small state to amass that

level. Those aren't donors. It's volunteers. People who are out knocking doors, sitting in the rain, giving free coffee, just hear a little bit about Platner. The Jackson campaign has sidelined them. Like, won't work with them. Why?

Is there toxic? They did this thing where they said anybody affiliated with the Platner campaign was, and it was a kind of a top-down, not just from D.C., but from the kind of establishment wing of the party in Maine,

that it became this jockeying for power. Is it going to be, this is there going to be a populist takeover of the party in Maine, or is it going to remain in the hands of the establishment Democrats? And they said, so we don't want to, like,

it makes no sense, at all because obviously none of those volunteers are responsible for what grand platon or may or may have done five or ten years ago yet they just it got so bad that a couple weeks ago when troy jackson jumped into this volunteer facebook group to defend himself against this rebecca tracer uh investigation in new york magazine the volunteers were so offended by how he was behaving They were like, there's no way that's Troy Jackson. Troy would never talk to us like this. This must be his DC staffers who took over his Facebook account,

and they banned him from the Facebook group. The candidate, kicked him out. A couple days later, he was like, it's me. That was me. Sorry. And there's been this whole Israel waffle where he called it a genocide under pressure. Then he was like, I apologize to Jewish people for using that word. Like, dude, what are you doing?

I don't get it. I mean, you liked Trin Jackson. Or, I mean, a lot of the progressive people like Jackson. They all seemed like he was the best option. I don't know. The whole thing, it stinks. Yeah, he came in and he was like, his defense basically is he didn't have a team. And so he had to go with these guys.

And he never thought, well, there was a team and a group of volunteers that just showed that they could win when he's at home. Doing what? He was invited to give this like labor day. talk that he gives every year at like the local library. And he's like, yeah, I'll do that again. And the whole world came down on him. Chey and Hunt is like, how dare he

Fox News does a bunch of segments on us? He's like, fine, I won't do a Labor Day talk about the history of labor. I don't know. I think a lot of the segments we did around that time are not going to age very well for the Jackson campaign. I'll just leave it at that. All right? Let's continue to break down

some of these other races. Ohio. I definitely wanted to mention this one. Absolutely interesting. AI and data centers is one of the number one important issues. For example, in Ohio, 3% of all voters, may not sound like a lot, actually a ton compared to the national sample, said that AI was the most important issue whenever it came to their vote. They said, Sherrod Brown, who is leading, husted by some three points, has been the epicenter of the backlash over data centers, and Brown was, quote, an early mover to capitalize on the issue. I also think Sherrod Brown, when we talk about candidate quality, I mean, this guy has

always just been massively out of step for all Democrats like nationally. Like pro-union, pro-tariff. He's been, what, he wrote some book in the 90s about steel and how important it is. Like, this is just a, you could say whatever you want about, oh, he's a lib and, you know, what are in these companies. Like, you can't deny his actual credentials. And the time that he spent in this, I know this for a fact from having, like, observe these issues. Like his team would go to war with the Biden administration over, you know, manufacturing. And so they actually walk the walk. I'll give him, I'll give him credit for that.

Yes. And, yeah, he, like, I remember we did something. We used to do it, Huffington Post, like fashion, just as a joke, like fashion stuff around the State of the Union. Chair Brown, I'd be like, oh, yeah, Union-made shoes, Union-made pants. That's right. Like, he's a real deal. And you can't hit him with the culture war stuff. It just doesn't land.

And also when you have built up that trust over the decades that this is where you stand, when you come out and say, I am against the data centers here, people believe you. That's true. Whereas when Mike Rogers in Michigan is like all of a sudden he went from pro data center to anti-data center, people don't, I don't think they actually internalize that you're going to stand against them. They think that you're just saying it. With Brown, they're like, oh, if he says he's against this and it was probably a hard thing to do, because the unions are generally for them.

It's fascinating, you know, even continuing, like with some of this, the number one thing, and oh, I wanted to return to Alaska. That was important. And let me make sure I do. Let me put C-6 up here on the screen. This was a flag from Nate Cohn. This is in context of a discussion that he was having. Basically what he says is Democrats are now very strong with low propensity voters in our polls

in the 24 primary Trump plus two recall Peltola plus five. no 24 primary, Trump plus 16 recall, Peltola plus nine. Now, he caveats this. He goes, look, I should remind everyone, this is one cross-tab in an idiosyncratic race. An extreme pattern doesn't extend to the Senate control question in Alaska. And I just think the flag that he's making there, where this is the open question of this entire thing, is, is this the same polling error that we've seen in the Trump era, which is basically low propensity voters, they don't show up in our polls, to the extent that they do, they're massively understampled, and then come election day, Republicans win by much more than ever, you know, ever thought, except for that one time in 2022 when Democrats overperform. Or are, is this the first time some of the bros and the Hispanics who, you know, like these lower propensity younger voters, just kind of check in, check out at a vibe-based level on politics. are they actually turning on Trump and are they going to come out to vote in a midterm election?

And, you know, even if they don't come out to vote at all, that it is obviously an affirmative choice, then if they did come out to vote in 24 and it would work out for the Democrat chances. That's something he picks up on. It'll be one of the biggest questions on election night. And, by the way, that is the difference between what you said, Ryan, is between, because one easy possibility on election night is, you know, looking at this New York Times Sienna thing, we could live in a world where Susan Collins wins Maine and then Tala Rico wins in Texas, which two huge seismic events. But like you said, Ohio husted by 0.2 recount territory. El Cyanette even wins Michigan. But that was like relatively expected. And Iowa, you know, Hinson by 0.5. Kansas. I don't even remember who's,

what's the guy's name? Adam Hamilton. Yeah, right. He's the, So he's like he wins by 2.3. Oh, you mean? What's his name? The Republican, I forget it. Roger. Roger. Roger.

Roger. Dr. Roger Marshall. Dr. Marshall. Peltola. Well, that one's totally crazy because of rank choice voting. So that'll take a little bit longer. But you could see this universe where that's the universe where the Republicans get scared or some of these lower propensity people just simply didn't show up even in Democratic

enthusiasm. And then you could also see actually in a blue wave, what happens is you. don't fully capture all of the energy, and then it moves on the other side of the curve. So I wouldn't rule out any of this. I just think, I do think Ryan's point is really important and well taken, and it does show the extent, I mean, I think it's highly possible just to return to Maine for a second. I think it is highly possible that the decision to Alps Platner would be maybe one of the most consequential decisions. And this like full embrace of Me Too hysteria a witch hunt leads basically to the loss of Democratic control of the Senate.

And I think a lot of people should ask questions if that happens. I really do because not only in the media campaign or the way it went down, but then that whole, remember the main Democratic Party, they're like, we decide who the nominee is. Right, not Platner. Not Platner's team, not Platter's supporter. Nobody associated with Graham Platner will make a, you know, will influence this decision. And then they all seem to be like fine with Troy Jackson. Now he's acting weird, controlled by D.C.

I think it's on them if it comes down to it, and the Republicans retain control. It's going to be, yeah. It's going to be an interesting couple weeks. Very crazy race, but currently all things pointing in the Democratic direction. Who knows? Everything, lots of things within the margin of error. Like I said, if these polls are, I think it's highly possible, just lasting on this, that these polls are all correct, every single one of them, and that means it becomes a catalyst for Republicans.

is that people in Kansas are like, hold on a second here. They're like, we can't be living with Democrat. You know, in our Senate for six years, we've got to come out to vote. We're previously here like, whatever. So we'll see. This one caller to Emily's program said, you know, look, I voted for him three times, but it's going to have to get worse before it gets better. Uh-huh.

So they're already rationalizing voting for Democrats and knowing that they don't like them. And it's going to be bad. Yeah. But the medicine is, you got to take your medicine. You got to take your medicine. So the country needs democratic rule to return. Yeah. I'm, you can make an argument for that.

Okay. All right, let's get to AI video. Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Youanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.

And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Brakeman. Angel Geratana.

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