Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 10/6/26: WH Meeting On Russian Plague, Iran Lights Up Hormuz, GOP Panic Over Kansas

Episode Date: October 6, 2026

Emily and Saagar discuss an emergency White House meeting on Russian plague, Iran lights up Hormuz and Houthis advance, GOP in panic over Kansas and South Carolina.   Logan Phillips: https://www.racetothewh.com/   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com    Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Youanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.

And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast.

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Let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. It's good to see you. Emily, do we do a pound? What do we do? Yeah, we'll go with it.

We still haven't locked down the fascist points. Yeah, it's like a little bit of... I'm listening to this. Harks go out to you. You asked that. Sager was sending his heart to everybody. Yeah, I was just sending my heart out to everyone. So what do we have here on the show today?

We're going to start off with LabLeak Update. Annie Jacobson joined us yesterday, expert commentary, considering her new book, which details a lot of the scenario. So we'll dig into more of the details, multiple border shutdowns around some of the surrounding areas from Erkutsk, so Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and other countries, either closing or monitoring travelers of a complete information shutdown coming inside of Russia They are denying officially plague, quote, rumors, which many people joked, is absolutely confirmation that all of it is true. And the Secretary of State and other high-level U.S. officials, kind of sounding not officially the alarm, but calling out Russia, considering and pressing for more information.

So obviously, if we've lived through COVID, we're going to monitor these signals very, very closely, and we'll give you all of the information that we have so far. Next, we're going to talk about all of the development. are currently happening in the Middle East. Specifically, though, we're going to start with Yemen, where it appears overnight that the Houthis did retake much of the territory, which was taken from them from Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia's back forces in the, quote, Yemeni government. Additionally, more signs that the U.S. government is heavily backing, both intelligence and the military campaign of Saudis against the Houthis, in addition to some increasing crunch in the oil markets and some at least current signs that the East-West pipeline from Saudi Arabia has

been targeted and the Saudi CEO, Aramco, coming out and confirming an official number of barrels per day that's moving through the pipeline, which is a little bit lower than where things were previously, which could indicate at the very least some damage that was done. Oh, this is just a teaser. Yeah, sorry. You're just to the full block. No, this is what we do. I guess, you know, I'm inexperienced, so I just throw out as much information as possible.

Crystal, and you guys are much better at it than I am. Logan Phillips is coming. He is going to stop by for our midterm check-in. We'll check in on his model. All of the latest election developments, Trump may or may not saying that it'd be fine to nuke San Diego and Los Angeles, in addition to a lot of other very inspiring pitches about why he should vote for him for $5,000 or pretend he's on the ballot,

and if Republicans win, you'll get your $5,000 check. Sam Altman in a new interview says that we just have to accept, What is it? Some bad things that happen for the benefits of this technology. It's not nice. And he's the one who gets to decide what we accept. So yeah, we're going to go through some updates in AI. But this particular Sam Altman interview he gave to Politico yesterday, you're really going to want to stay around and listen to it. And then absolute civil war breaking out in the NBA. Wemby coming out and actually calling out many of his own colleagues saying that he would never do a deal with sports betting company. And while LeBron James is actually making more from his partnership with. Polly Market and Kevin Durant is defending his partnership with Fandul. This is some additional

gambling news that has come out just in the last several hours, including the Democratic nominee for governor, Keisha Lance Bottom, saying that she wants a statewide vote on casino gambling and says legalization would be economic tool for struggling communities in Georgia. So yeah, that's really how you're going to pull yourself up by your bootstraps is by putting it all on red at the roulette table. Finally, Emily, you know more about this independent Senate candidate. Todd Achilles, he will be joining us. He was sent to us via our friend Andrew Yang for an interview. So he's going to stop by.

You and I are going to talk to him. He's running for Senate in Idaho as an independent. And people may remember, we showed some of his ads. They've been massively viral. But it's a race a lot of people aren't paying attention to except for when his ads pop. He's been going after the Republican incumbent Jim Rish, just brutally stunting on him. So we're going to ask him about some of those ads and get a little bit of insight. the state of the race that is probably tighter than people realize he's not exactly winning.

The polls are kind of all over the map. Who's pulling in Idaho? You're doing midterm polling in Idaho, right? So that's why it's good to sometimes talk to the candidates and get a feel for what's really happening on the ground. It has a potential to be a shock. Nonetheless, it's interesting. Yeah, I don't know a ton about Idaho.

Yeah, if the environment is really, really bad for Republicans, which we're expecting it to be, you never know what happens in these races. There you go. All right. Thank you to everybody's been signing up for the show, breaking points.com. All right. So yesterday Ryan's pitch was you're probably going to do. of plague and be choking in your own blood in a month. So what does it even mean to give up 10,

to sign up and potentially, you know, forget to cancel and have $10 be charged to your credit card? Today, I have a Ryan specific pitch, which I always try to make it about Ryan. So yesterday, Ryan and AMA is lamenting that there is a specific fish show in Richmond, but he doesn't know if he can make it work. So my pitch is, I will fill in for Ryan and I will make sure, I will make sure that Ryan gets to go to the fish show, but 100 people have to sign up in the next 48 hours. Guarantee you will hit that mark. All right, so if 100 people want to sign up and want, and want me to have to work extra and fill in for my good friend Ryan Grimm so he can go and enjoy his fish show. His debauchery. That's up to you. That is up to you. Whether Ryan gets to drop acid

and go smoke marijuana with a bunch of other degenerates at fish, his fate's in your hands. Otherwise, he's going to be sitting here at the desk. It's as close as you can get to Getting Sager to smoke wheat. There you go. And, you know, I previously said, Baclavat, I'll buy his tickets. There you go. I'll buy his tickets. All right.

Now, babysitter, he'll have to figure that out. I might sign up again. Yeah. Just so Ryan could go. So there's your pitch, everybody. If you watch this on YouTube, hit subscribe to our channel. Listen to as a podcast, share an episode with a friend. All right.

Longest intro literally ever. I apologize. Not that great at this. Let's start off with what we know about this lab leak situation. Let's put the first. element up on the screen currently breaking out of Russia. So right now, the Kremlin is telling Russians to, quote, ignore rumors of a possible plague outbreak in Siberia. U.S. and EU officials all saying that they are monitoring the situation. So the Russian presidential spokesperson

Demetri Peskov said that the lead agency in this area is their national public health and consumer protection agencies. People should rely on its official statements and, quote, disregard rumors, speculation, and so on. They are highly qualified professionals that are in the field. Let's put A1 up here on the screen and actually take a listen to what Trump and Rubio are saying, both being asked about it at the White House yesterday. Let's take a listen. I am. I have not spoken about it about it. I am. The pneumonia play. If we go out a place, well, I hate to see them having him. We know what we know, obviously, about whatever the Russians have provided which is it seems that it was a a worker at the lab that was infected and is concerned

that that you know could have spread at least internally so you see them do quarantine of that nature there's very limited travel between the u.s and russia obviously but like anything else something like that gets out it quickly spread so we're watching and monitoring it closely yeah i don't think it's cause for alarm but it is cost for focus and a cause to just keep an eye on it We're doing that. So that is the current line from Secretary Rubio. He also appeared this morning in a press conference where he said that Russia needs to be more transparent about it.

What we do know, Emily, with some of these signs, let's put A2 up here on the screen from on the ground. This is from a Guardian reporter Peter Sauer. He says, a woman who went to an Akutzk Maternity Hospital for a routine visit today told her told him that staff checked her for. for symptoms of plague and ask her to fill in a form, experts currently stressing the disease is easily treatable with antibiotics. So one of the things that really struck me in our interview with Andy Jacobson yesterday was basically that the, you know, if you contract the virus,

or sorry, if you contract the bacteria, you have a 100% casualty rate. If you get the antibiotics from a 24-hour period, and this was apparently based on a broad-based European study of the bacteria, if you take the correct antibiotics, then it falls to 17%. And so obviously, it's highly deadly. In some cases, that would actually mean the level of, like, how much it will decimate your immune system and how sick you are actually means you're very less likely, like with COVID to go out and spread it as much. So there's some optimism in terms of being able to contain everything.

But for what we know right now is that the Russian story makes literally no sense, right, with the lab leak. And so that is, I think, the scary part. Obviously, they're checking people in hospitals. Well, yeah, it's horrifying. So Secretary Rubio was pretty careful there. I mean, remember when John Ratcliffe went to Moscow? I do.

There's something obviously strange. It's not entirely surprising. But what is the, do we know how it manifests? Like Annie Jacobson was saying, you can have it and you will likely know, you are symptomatic. Do we know what the asymptomatic occurrence of it is, if anything? I was looking a little bit this morning. There was some like PubMed stuff that was posted. So basically here's like what we know right now, but this is more quarantine related.

I'm going to read again from some information that was put out by Annie. The current quarantine that they have going on in our coupes is, quote, inconsistent with plague unless it has been engineered to be pan-resistant. And I think that's why the bigger question around this, is this a naturally occurring pneumomic plague? or is it a lab-resistant or genetically engineered bioweapon leak? So they say that the good news is that even with a pan-resistant strain, it could still likely be controlled due to a relatively low R0 of 1.4 to 2.4. Quote, evolution selects directly for replication. It is hard to increase a baseline pathogen transmissibility. Vaccine evasion, treatment resistance, or enhanced virulence are much more likely. So it should be possible to contain the Akkut's pathogen if it is plague.

If we are lucky, then the Russians are overreacting. It's not something that can spread. It could perhaps even be a hoax an information hoax or anything. So I'm just putting out all of the information that we have now currently. The thing that, I mean, one of the reasons why I still take it a little bit seriously is put A3 up here on the screen, was these border controls that have now been put in place. So from the Caspian Post, this is all these Central Asian news outlets. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have tightened their border controls over disease concerns and health alerts in Akuts.

Uzbekistan apparently tightened sanitary control after this report of a possible plague case in Russia. There is a circulating Daily Mail report that is happening right now as we're on the air, that a second victim had died. Now, to be clear, that is from the Daily Mail, an anonymous source that they apparently have, has not been confirmed by Russian authorities. The problem is, the initial death obviously was confirmed by Russian authorities, but then they're like, oh, it's not a plague, don't worry about it, this is a rumor. So, you know, just like with COVID and much more, all of these things are now beginning to, like, there's suspicion from many different information outlets. Obviously, you should be suspicious of the Russian government. You should be suspicious of our government. I do, generally, you have to look at the actions. So Secretary Rubio, Trump, they're being asked about it because of media reports. Now, let's put A4 on the screen. And this is the one where I was like, oh, this is actually serious. Yeah. Is that Annie Jacobson yesterday, and by the way, it's all now been confirmed by other news outlets,

is that there was a principals meeting at the White House yesterday morning to discuss the plague accident at the BSL3 lab in Siberia. Now, the reason why I think that's important is, remember, these are the people who have the most information, the highest level of intelligence, CIA, satellite, all of that, et cetera. principles meetings are not easy to put together. What it means is it means usually is the way that it works out, is you bring the vice president, you know, the secretary of the treasury, the secretary of state, all of the quote principles, the heads of the departments together to coordinate a response or do some sort of an intelligence review. And so I think when you can look at the Kremlin denying the reports,

the fact that the current way they're handling things is not consistent with, naturally occurring lab leak. The fact that the lab worker apparently died and then when it came into contact with some 200 other people, as Annie had put it yesterday, if that had happened and she had known that she had been exposed in that way, she would have pulled the alarm, she never would have been on to leave. They're locking down much of the information that's coming out of the region. Orkut. I mean, Ryan did check yesterday. There are still flights that are coming in and out of the city, I think, even including international flights like Beijing and probably Ulaan Bator as well. And other countries have not yet shut down travel. But we're

trying to stay on top of this just because, as we all saw, with COVID, you know, one can become 50 all very quickly. And, you know, there were a lot of signs in the initial days, like with COVID, which, again, I understand totally for virus, you know, much less lethal and all that, etc. but the consequences here being so high in the Russian government's actions right now, not exactly, you know, inspiring a lot of confidence. Well, unlike COVID,

we're also in a hot proxy war with Russia right now. So they're engaged in, like, a massive battlefield hot war, and that's a totally... Also, by the way, you'll know this better than I do, but I assume our intelligence

in Russia is very good. So I will assume that they have a better handle of what's happening than they're publicly intimating, but I also expect because they're meeting in the White House, we will know more about tomorrow.

There will be leaks. The way it was put to me is our intelligence is very good at certain things. So, for example, like, okay, let's say even with Lab League, they didn't have that. You know, CIA and all that, they assessed it later, but they didn't have that insight. I'm not entirely convinced about it.

Well, yeah, maybe they knew the whole time. But what they're, let's say with Russia, what are they good at? Well, the CIA since 1950, has had a mandate to analyze military, build-ups, operations, and assess Kremlin decision-making. So you'll recall, like, I was very skeptical of Russia was going to invade Ukraine, and part of it was like all these warnings from the CIA.

And I'm like, what are these people now? I'm like, these people have missed like Afghanistan, you know, they missed like all these things. Well, it's like, okay, they actually do have a certain skill set on their military. Or let's say on Kremlin decision-making, or at the very least, like, trying to see what they've decided to tell the military to do. But even then I wouldn't say that they're exactly, like, phenomenal at it. Well, this is a little bit different.

This is the 25th largest city in Russia, but it is in Siberia. You know, it's very far away from the capital. And Russia is very able to shut down a lot of the information. From what I understand, I was reading a little bit more yesterday from infectious disease experts, a significant part of the movement between cities from Siberia to the rest of Russia is via the train system. And so they're like, if this is going to spread, it's going to be from a train. It's very difficult. You're going to be so sick with this plague that.

you wouldn't even be able to get up, go to the airport and get on a flight. Whereas, you know, you could have contracted by that time you get sick and then you could be in touch with more people. So if we do see the Russian train system begin to shut down, that's going to be another indication now currently. Let's put, what is it, A6, please. Did Annie also weigh in the incubation period? Yeah, so what she was talking about here was the outbreak.

It's difficult to say because she's assessing off of the naturally occurring one, where as opposed to this could be either lab resistant, genetic, engineered, some sort of bio weapon. Put the A6, please, on the screen. So currently, the CDC, the State Department, and the administration for strategic preparedness and response, have all tried to learn more about the death of this lab worker. And apparently, they basically don't know anything. All they really know was the same thing that we do, is that this lab worker is, who works at the Institute of Plague, dies of plague, quarantines are now on several hospitals in Siberia, and that's about it.

Quote, the situation has been complicated by Russian officials' hesitation to share information, as well as reports that Russian intelligence officers have been involved. We don't have a lot of intel. It's in Siberia. Quote, unless someone gets on a plane and gets to the U.S., it is low risk, we should be alert, but not panicked. All of this fits now currently kind of with what we know, and there was, they confirm, like I said earlier, a senior help and national security officials all.

met at the White House yesterday to discuss what was known about the case, possible next steps. Currently, the public health agency in Russia is only saying it has undertaken a set of anti-epidemic measures in the Akutsk region after the death of this 28-year-old woman who worked at the Anti-Plagg Institute of Siberia. But one thing I do think is important is that Annie flagged to us yesterday, this lab is known to have been a part of the Soviet bio-weapons problem. So to set up to say, it's just some, oh, it's like anti-plague Institute. I'm like, well, as we all learned through gain of function, anti-plague can sometimes mean,

let's genetically engineer plague to be more virulent, and then we'll develop a vaccine to stop the more virulent. They're like, well, why don't you just not doing it in the first place? Yeah, and it's like, you know, all the scientists are out here saying, they're like, look, you know, we have pretty good treatment options for naturally occurring plague. It should be fine. You take some CIPRO within 24 hours, at least in the developed world,

the ability to contain all of this. But I think what's really raising everybody's alarm is, obviously, plague, the ward itself is scary. But is the notion that the current actions of the Russian government and the way that this leaked out of that lab and came into contact, shutting down hospitals, quarantine, the maternity ward. I mean, that doesn't just happen. You don't just get a screener for plague whenever you happen to go into the hospital for some routine sort of checkup. none of that is consistent with the natural, you know, strain of what we see now currently. Well, and it's not fair to say that almost all research in the space is dual use, but a huge, huge chunk of it is dual use, meaning, yeah, meaning that it's also,

you get the funding in order to, obviously, I have no idea how this works in Russia, but you get the funding in order to also develop dual-use strategies or research into how it can potentially be used in a military situation or even defensively, but it's often involves the military and intelligence. Yeah, I mean, what I'm looking at right now, and we talked a little bit yesterday. Like, for example, there was this report that came out about this death of this woman, and then they're previously kind of like with COVID, is that literally just weeks ago, August 24th and 27th,

the director of the Anti-Plaug Institute attended a Chinese conference, like in August 24th and August 27th of the Fuyang government release, where they were, you know, doing like a plague, what is it? It's like, they were doing like a research exercise into what would happen if there was an outbreak of plague. And he was in attendance. He was on the release list from China. So, you know, there is still a lot of questions, I think, that kind of surround this entire thing. Literally five weeks ago, the guy is there. And it was a scenario involving plague arriving from abroad, a hypothetical emerging tick-borne disease, Chinese and Russian experts rehearsing outbreak notifications, joint risk assessment, and coordinated control measure.

19 emergency teams were in 300 personnel and over 40 emergency vehicles. Now, to be fair, apparently this stuff is routine within the public health community. and it would make sense for a plague outbreak to get the plague guy over there. But you do have this incident breaking out literally just weeks later. So you're hoping that it's not some grand conspiracy or maybe that they knew that something had already leaked

and then they just happened to have now announced it. But all of it, you know, I just want to keep people updated generally and we're trying to be responsible here. We're not saying, oh, it's spreading everywhere, people are dying, et cetera. There's no indication of that. But reminder, this is in Siberia. I did make a mistake yesterday.

I confused the city of Urquz with Yakuts, and I apologize. Sager. For that. I got my Siberian geography all messed up. Actually, speaking of Urquz, this is for the Moscow Times, so take it for what it's worth. But Arkutz is the highest paying Russian region for foreign enlistment incentives. And so that was also, they had a fourfold increase in the bonus for every foreign citizen that recruiters sign up in Arkuts. So playing a non-insignificant role right now in recruiting people to go serve the war against Ukraine.

Yeah, it's like side tangent. It's actually very sad. Apparently, the way that it works is that they just like shower the poorest regions of Russia. It's kind of like ours. You go to the poorest counties in America and you're like, hey, you want to serve in the military? You get $50,000. And they're like, hey, that's going to change my whole life. I get free health care.

It's very much like that. And pensions, like pensions for dead Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine now account for a significant. portion of cash transfer payments and GDP in some of the poorest areas, apparently in Russia. Tragic, kind of the same story in every war. You know, you have the poorest people. So look, we, that's the full kind of full picture of what we know. Russia's denying it. They say it's all rumors. We know currently that the lockdown and the quarantine stuff is happening in Erkutsk in many of these hospitals. We know that many of these countries have shut down the border or, or, or, or, or have increased border security with Russia

and our screening for sanitary measures for the people who are coming in and out and that the White House has convened a principals meeting with senior health and senior national security officials with a public pressure for transparency from Trump and Margaret Rubio on the Russian government. That's what we got now. Well, and we are trying to be responsible.

We would be remiss if we didn't mention one... That's right, you did flag this one. One dot. I was going to let you set it up. In this kind of matrix. So if we put A7 up on the screen, like I said, we are trying to be responsible here. We'll read it for the people who are listening. But Taylor Swift did release the single Patient Zero as same lettuce on X points out.

Taylor Swift released the single Patient Zero on September 25th, 2026. That same day, a 28-year-old technician at their good antsy-blag research is reportedly broken test tube containing live plague bacteria. She was hospitalized days later with severe pneumonia and died October 2nd, 22nd, 26. The same day, patient zero reached number one on the UK official single. chart. We're not drawing any conclusions. We are only giving you the information you need. Is it a good song? It is a good song. I'm not even like a certified Swifty these days, but it's a pretty good and the video is with Dakota Johnson. They debuted at the VMAs. It's a pretty good video too. I will give it that. I haven't listened yet. I, you know, I haven't as much time

of my hands, but maybe I'll get around to it. Maybe I'll listen to it a little bit later. You just went and saw it. You just went and saw the prime time movie last night. You've got time to listen to Taylor on the way. There's a trade-off. You've only got a certain amount of time. All right. Well, we're not trying any good choice. You got to go see. By the way, prime time, 10 out of 10. Loved it. And I'm not critical of T-CAP or any of that either. I just, as a movie, I thought it was great.

All right. Let's get to Middle East. This record is on. Miley is having a moment. New name, new album, and two exclusive shows. So IHard Radio is sending you to experience it all. Life at the Hollywood Puff Lights. Hotel. Tickets. and $1,000 cash. Listen to Iheart new music

for 10 minutes a day on the Iheart radio app and click enter. Every day you listen is another chance to win. Stream Miley's new album Bass Persuades today. Lisa, we should tell them

about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Youan. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.

And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anyone fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes,

good taste is my business, and I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight to fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.

Lyer. Listen on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I don't really care. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know. Have you guys heard of faux journaling?

Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So we don't like to use that word anymore. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako and the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald's at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th.

That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore though. Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone.

I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on the IHeard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Turning now to the situation in the Middle East, let's put B-Zero up here on the screen. So this is from DropSite Ansar Allah, aka the Houthis, appears to have reversed the Saudi-backed advance on Yemen's sea coast within 24 hours. Its fighters have posted videos from Dubab, a town in Taiz province between the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the port of Moka, which Ansarala took in mid-September. Prous pro-Saudi mercenary counts said that they had seized once again by the internationally

recognized mercuries on Monday. Current research, who they cite notes this morning that the coastal strip is flat open desert, with heavy air cover, light armored vehicles can advance quickly, but the ground is hard to hold. Mountains are just inland. and overlook the plane unless government forces push up into the mountains. The Houthis whose strength has always been mountain warfare can come down and swiftly push them back out. Important to note that as the U.S. government really is throwing everything but direct intervention behind the Saudi government-backed takeover in Yemen.

Let's take a listen to Secretary Rubio. Obviously, the Saudis have come under Houthi attack and see the threat that that poses, and they have a right to defend themselves. and obviously the Yemeni forces are going to try to retake territory that they were ousted from. So that's what's happening right now with Yemen. Meanwhile, though, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Embassy is preparing everybody for a serious confrontation about what is to come. Let's put B3. For example, we have not seen a warning like this from the U.S. embassy in quite

some time. So this is the official U.S. travel.gov warning. Saudi Arabia, due to the ongoing security situation in Saudi and the potential for aerial drone or missiles attacks, the United States mission strongly encourages all citizens to remain vigilant and follow the guidance of national alerts released by Saudi Arabia's civil defense. So what they're warning there of aerial drone and missile attacks almost certainly on critical government infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. And that includes the Saudi East-West pipeline, the Ramco facility where they pump oil, And then they also include the Saudi airport and obviously U.S. or I guess U.S. not currently under attack. But the Saudi airport and all other critical infrastructure within, specifically for the oil industry inside of the country, after they really have unleashed air bombing campaign refueling and have been paying and really orchestrating a lot of this retakeover of a lot of this territory inside Yemen.

How much longer do you expect the Trump administration and Trump himself to resist intervention? I don't know. I mean, so if I had to bet, I don't think they're going to do it. And I think the reason why is that this strip, because this is from what I understand in terms of what took place, because I asked around a little bit yesterday, I go, why did he call it off? And what he couldn't get away from was that this would distract from the straight of hormones, is that because of the finite amount of military resources, like we said yesterday,

a third carrier on its way to the Middle East, which is in addition to, I think, 10,000, three to 10,000, something like that, more troops that are currently on their way as well. Everything is in support of the Hormuz mission, which has been relatively successful. And what I mean by that is oil is coming out. Now, it's coming out a $30 day premium. And literally while we're doing the show, 13th vessel was just struck in the last eight days and most damage that has been done in addition to a number. another tanker that was flagged by the IRGC and told, if you don't turn around right now,

we're going to sink you. And they did. They did turn around the second ship in the last 48 hours. So when I say relatively successful, you got about 14, 15 million barrels a day that are moving through in a $30 premium with the full force of the U.S. Navy. Okay. So that's the Strait of Hormuz mission, which is draining the U.S. Navy, costing literally hundreds of millions of dollars. U.S. Marines are on board ships. This is everything laser-focused. everybody's sent calm, everybody's working around the clock. All right, so Trump, on top of that, wants to add direct bombing intervention into Yemen. Well, it's not just one bombing run, like with Iran.

Because what's going to happen? The Houthis are going to shoot back. And they're going to say, all right, now the entire Red Sea is closed. Right? We've been there with the Houthis recently. We've been there, right? And we lost. We had to sign a ceasefire with them.

Trump even said, he said tough guys. And that was before Iran, before our missile supply was depleted. So that's what I'm saying is, at the end of the day, I don't think that he eventually will do a full. full-on-em- like, I think they're going to try and play a cute where yesterday the report was you got 200 American intel analysts who are basically running this whole anti-Houthi campaign. It's like with Ukraine. We give them the targeting data. We sell them the weapons. We give them the fuel. We give them the Humvees. But we don't do it ourselves. Like that's as far,

I think, as it'll now currently go. Not because he doesn't want to. He's humiliated by this entire thing. And MBS is lighten him up every day. I need your help. I need your help. I need your But the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the other military planners are basically like, sir, if you do this, it's going to take away a lot from the Strait of Hormuz mission.

And MBS has Jared leveraged. Exactly. He's got Jared leveraged. He's got... But I just think the main reason why, and I could be totally wrong, is at the very least, the reason why he pulled back

on that attack is because it started to hit home of, now I'm going to have to disperse parts of the Navy. They're going to have to focus on the Red Sea again. I have a nice little ceasefire that's working out,

which he's praise, previously, and it will draw down even more military interceptors, open up a new front of the war, and we will actually get less total oil out of the Middle East, and it will send the price of oil skyrocketed. And then it's a midterm. Yeah, then it's a midterm problem. So that's not currently. Now, can I rule out that he will do it after the midterms?

No, I can't because, you know, this is intolerable to have, for them to have so much, so much humiliation in not just for moves, but, I mean, you have your entire. allied mission and you know the whole every the whole reason that the Saudis spend all this money here and buy all of our weapons and put all their money with Jared Kushier and it's like it's so they don't end up like this

yes and now you know this is existential for them in a lot of ways Ryan was talking about that yesterday with MBS well MBS could have I suppose considered that when he encouraged Trump according to Washington Post report to go to war with Iran exactly yeah I mean it's a complete strategic disaster but the problem is is that this is Yemen in particular apparently has been like his project from day one.

It's one of the ways that he was able to kind of assume so much of his power, the security establishment, and more. And I do think that he will take the entire country down with him rather than give up power, considering how much he's internally maneuvered inside the country. Let's put B6 up here on the screen. It makes a lot of these same points, but I actually thought it was a really good story. They say, why Saudi Arabia's last war in Yemen turned into a quagmire.

And so what they point out, and as we've said here now, Saudi Arabia has been bombing Yemen for 11 years. It started in March of 2015. They launched the air campaign. They led, you know, the UAE and all these other countries. They're bombing them. Quote, the stated goal was to restore the Yemeni government and drive the Houthis out of the capital. Quote, despite years of fighting that didn't happen and a brutal war caused a deep humanitarian crisis. And in 2022, a fragile truce was agreed and most of the fighting stopped.

But then it all unravels in July of this year after the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing the airport in Sanaah and the troops collapsed last month with a sweeping Houthi military offensive that took over the entire Red Sea coast. And so they actually detail how Saudi Arabia, they thought they were hot, you know, they bring together this 10 country coalition. They have the bombers. They have the Emirates. And, you know, year over year, they just keep getting drawn more and more and more. into this thing until it causes such a disaster, hundreds of thousands of people die from famine, out, you know, disease. The U.S., I mean, I think it was like Matt Gates and Rokana and Chris Murphy, all these guys come together, I think 2019, hey, we got to stop funding this entire thing. Yeah, ALC, it's like, they're like, this is a, you know, humanitarian disaster.

Dave Smith is, you know, this is one of his, like, real areas of expertise where he's gone off so well, I think, in terms of what the United States, Saudi Arabia and all that enables. in Yemen. And all of this, by the way, it all backfired on America because, of course, this entire time there's Al-Qaeda that's in the, we're in this whole period we're launching Navy SEAL operations, guys are getting killed, drone strikes, and all of us. So the entire country, it's been decimated by this U.S.-backed offensive. And the quagmire and the conditions for why we're right back to basically where we start, frankly, they're stronger with their strategic leverage and their military campaign has all been enabled now by over a decade of U.S. policy, both Trump, Obama,

even, you know, Obama, Trump, Biden, everybody kind of has some of this on their back. Yeah. There's no question about that. It is just the last 10 years of policy here, just a resounding disaster playing out every single day. And interestingly enough, that's why I think this question about whether or not Trump resists the pressure that he's certainly getting from MBS and MBS allies right now. That is legitimately a big question because everything you laid out makes sense on paper. Trump doesn't always make sense off paper, especially when he's being pressured by people like MBS with whom he's friendly and I think it makes complete an entire sense to say Jared Kushner

right now who is negotiating in the Middle East on our behalf and is leveraged over there makes decisions that don't always make sense either. Yeah, I think what it will, I think what you will really see, currently with Saudi, it's like I was saying, is they have to go all way. So they're at this point. It's been 11 years. They thought it was done. Houthis have embarrassed them now repeatedly.

They actually control more of the country. Now they have leverage not just over Saudi Arabia, but they have leverage over the entire global economy in conjunction, obviously, with their, you know, alliance with Iran. Let's put B7 up here just to show the position that the Saudis are now currently in. The CEO of Ramco yesterday said that a global oil supply safety, cushion is, quote, alarmingly low. He said, as crude oil shipments through the straight rebound, Persian oil producers are vying for market share. Aramco has raised its November crude prices

for European customers, while the discount on its Asian-bound cargoes has widened to the largest in the last six years. According to the price schedule, the company has set the official selling price for its crude oil destined for Asian buyers at a $5 barrel below the Dubai and Oman benchmark. Apparently, the reason why this matters is that they are seeking to expand its crude oil sales back to Asian markets where all of these oil producers are kind of in a race because that was such a major customer base for them going into the Iran War. What they're trying to do by discounting it is encouraging them to buy because apparently right now, especially with refined products,

is that the Asians are all buying from the United States and or elsewhere. Obviously, they're also drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the Aramco CEO said that you have an alarmingly low stockpile in the actual global supply. At the same time, they have market problems, so they have to take more of a bath. What they're basically in a position now is they can't have the current situation which we have literally right now, where, you know, as you can see, you have the Houthy campaign, you have the retaking of territory, they're now in a military quagmire. And like I said, as we're speaking, maybe we can even add some of this, you know, later on.

But while we were doing this show, you were having reports right now that are coming out of these 13 vessels struck by Iran in the last eight days, which is the voluntary reporting, which means that there are a lot more attacks that may have actually come through. And not only have they been struck, but you've even seen the additional tanker come out and say that, yeah, we came. out in the last 48 hours because of the oncoming fire have basically said, nope, we're not going to deal with this. So you're going to have actually less oil from the Iranian side that's pressure along with the Houthis that are pressuring them. And so I think those two things together, that really puts them in a bad situation and in a bind where they're just going to have to go even more all in. That's the dangerous part. Well, that also makes the politics interesting for Trump too, ahead of the midterms. Like if he's being squeezed in both directions, what does he do?

Well, the price of oil, something I mentioned yesterday is that, so if you take a look at the price of bread crude today, it's actually down to $98 a barrel. Now, you would say, oh, well, that means that we're winning in Iran. Well, actually, it's because of the global strategic petroleum reserve release that was approved by the G7. And so that was done strategically by the Trump administration because the Trump administration told them, hey, diesel export ban or you guys release your SPR. So the Europeans, the Japanese, everybody had to release all this oil, which they didn't want to because they're all heading into winter on when they might need their supply. But eventually he basically bent them over and he's like, you're going to have to do it. You don't have a choice. So they released without, now they have very little slack in their own system if this situation continues, which we all know that it will. But that actually puts, basically he's just kicking the can down the road.

You have cheaper oil right now. You keep gas around 420 a gallon and diesel around like 620. something like that going into the election. And then after that, you know, it's colder. If Europeans don't have heating, like, not his problem. Or they have to pay $200, $300 or something like that insane per barrel before we even get to refined products. But overall, that's what the picture looks like right now. Extremely precarious.

Not good. So speaking of all those midterms, let's get to Logan Phillips. The music you love. Your favorite radio stations. Everywhere you go. The podcasts, everyone's talking. about all in one place and it's free whatever you want to hear

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We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwano. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. And I've, always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.

We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.

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So if you like fun, if you like comedy and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, Start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Joining us now is our great friend Logan Phillips of Race to the White House. He's joining us for his weekly segment and our midterm breakdowns. Good to see you, Logan. How are you, man? I'm doing great. Great to see you, Sager and Emily, too.

Always good to see you, my friend. So we're going to start off with some of the recent Trump comments. Here he was yesterday. You can decide for yourself. He is saying that high gas prices, are a small price to play. You could also look at it as him saying, Iran nuking San Diego in Los Angeles would be a small price to play. You decide. Let's take a listen. And again, remember, with the word, just artificial, it's a little bit high. It's a small

price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe. They can take out a city. Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego. You know, this is a very small price to pay. And it's going to be over with very soon. It's essentially almost over with. And they might keep going a little long, you know. They always say they have a big threshold for pain. They need it.

Let me tell you, they need it. But it's going to end very soon. And it'll end one way or the other. And your gas and your gasoline and all of the things. So, Logan, I can't decide what's actually worse electorally, whether L.A. or San Diego is fine to give up in a small price or saying, saying high gas prices or a small price to pay. Both seem quite bad whenever we take a look at it. You tell me. Well, we do have an us versus them moment in our politics, but I don't think it goes so far that different parts of the country are rooting for your children to get newt.

Right, right. I can't imagine that Kevin Kiley, Republican turned independent, is delighted by those comments running out in the ad starts because San Diego. Yeah, and apparently, yeah, I think the mayor of San Diego spoke out already against it. You've got Gavin Newsom and others, you know, who are posting this clip. but what I couldn't get away from was either interpretation. I mean, to say small price to pay for $4 gasoline for over six months just appears to be so remotely out of touch with a war that the vast majority of the people don't support. Yeah, well, this is the biggest problem for Donald Trump, right?

To some degree, the armor is off for the first time in his political career. Voters have always given Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt, the people that like him. And now they don't think a lot of them, not all of them, not even mostly, of them, but a significant minority, think that he no longer cares about them or is fighting for them. And it's stuff like this, and it's the focus on the ballroom

and all these other stuff that they can, not only are they upset about the high gas prices, but they can tie it directly to his actions, and he consistently doesn't seem to care. See, this is an interesting attention in Trump's own approach here, because we're gonna roll this next clip. He understands that there's a transactionality.

When people say, I'm gonna go vote for someone to make my life better. Here's what he said. Once again, about $5,000 payments, C1. Our country is doing so well under Republican leadership that only I can make you this promise. If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate, I'm going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America $5,000. And Republicans can do it, and Democrats can't, because we're taking in massive amounts of money through tariffs and record-setting economic success.

We haven't talked to you about this yet. Yeah. What do you think? How will this work? I don't think voters are going to buy it. And I listen to a lot of focus groups, right? And I heard this one voter say, who was a Trump Republican, or a Trump voter, I should say, that it sounded a little bit like when you're watching

the elementary school elections, and people are promising that if they win, they'll give you a free slide, free candy every day. People just don't buy it. And if, you know, he would do it now if that's really what he wanted to do. And I think it also goes back to the caring questions of if this was to help the American people, it doesn't have to be tied to an electoral outcome. Right, right. That's actually a very good point. There is obviously, I mean, it's obviously true, which is like, look, you control Congress in the Senate.

You can literally do it right now if you want. He's like, oh, well, we'll do it after the election. I mean, it's just so naked in the way that it is coming out. Let's put C2 up here on the screen. I, you very rarely see this of Trump admitting defeat. And I will say, I mean, it's been shocking, actually, to see, to watch it on the NFL. And then this random Trump ad comes up here like, how is this possible? Because it says paid for by U.S. government.

And by the way, in the ad, he says, I'm going to stop warmongers. Anyway, yesterday, he goes, the radical left is upset with the fact that I am taking ads, which I consider to be positive promotion for a great USA and paying for them with USA money. This is a rather standard thing to do. But rather than doing that, although nothing will make them happy, I have decided to do. the patriotic ads and pay for them myself with money that I have raised for MAGA, Inc. Apparently, it's cost some $5.6 million so far, which came somehow from the Customs and Border Patrol budget. Logan, you never see Trump actually come out and be like, okay, fine, you know, trying to

spin defeat. But, I mean, that's a pretty big pullback for him to stop using taxpayer-funded ads. What do you make of that? I think it's one of two things. Usually the thing that slows Trump down is when Republicans enlarge in the Senate or House, usually privately these days, push back against him. So it's either that, or maybe it's that in conjunction with the fact that I think these ads we're working against him, specifically because of what it's said at the bottom. It's an extremely jarring thing to say. It's not something we're at all used to, so it obviously stands out. But also, I think the content, too, might be working against him because he's saying a lot of things that people are specifically mad at him for not doing. Yes, that's a very good point.

It calls attention to a lot of his electoral flaws right now. He's like, I'm going to drive the warmongers out of Washington. You're like, what? We're literally in the middle of Iran war, man. I'm like, you're going to drive yourself out of Washington? Like, how's that going to work? It calls attention to what's obviously a vulnerability. Yeah, I think so too.

But I just have to imagine that Trump could still run those ads separately. I think his abandonment on this is it is just something that people do not want their tax dollars to be used for. I think if you're talking to genuinely over 90% of Americans, no matter how died in the wool of a Democrat or Republican you are, you don't want your tax dollars going to pay for their ads. Yes, I think that's a very, very good point. And this is basically what Kristen Solstice Anderson. And I'm curious to ask you this, said she was picking up on in the New York Times. She's right of center pollster and said one of the things she's been picking up on in focus groups and polling is basically that when people started to get pissed about the ballroom and about corruption and meme coins. is when the economy got bad.

And so Trump corruption that was kind of naked and a cheeky joke that he would make sometimes himself was tolerable to people until they started to feel like the economy was steadily getting worse. Gas prices were high. You can't take these stupid meme coins

when gas is over $4 a gallon. Yeah, I think it's very true. That's something that the Obama administration had so much focus on. They didn't even redecorate the Oval Office when he first took over because they were worried that it would seem as excessive.

After the recession. But I also think that the other part here, and sorry, a little repetitive, but it's that they don't think he cares. And if they, the Republicans, and I think to some degree voters in 2020, very close election, they gave Trump some room because it wasn't his fault. And this time the price is bigger than normal, honestly, I think for a president, which is the opposite, how everything works for Donald Trump normally. Normally the price is so much smaller for the same thing because they think he directly caused it.

Yes. I mean, he did literally directly cause it. He did. Let's get to some of the state-by-state stuff, and we can check it against your model. Let's put C3 up here up on the screen. I was kind of kind of came out of nowhere, but actually now fits with some more recent actions by the GOP. So yesterday, Trump released this long screed against Annie Andrews, who is running against Darlene Graham in South Carolina. He says, Annie Tranny Andrews is running against our wonderful friend, Darling Graham. For years, my dear friend Lindsay would say,

Darlene is the finest, most reliable, and one of the smartest people I've ever known. He would then always add, also the most loyal. Oftentimes, I would be upset with Lindsay. In any event, Darlene is a high-quality person, maybe the highest in any tranny is not, in particular as it pertains to, representing the values of the great people of South Carolina.

She is in favor of transgender for everyone, open borders, defund the police, high taxes. In other words, is against our great second amendment. So what's crazy about this? is that it's South Carolina. Lindsay Graham won it by 17 points, something like that. And I will say, you know, we were bombarded with a lot of similar stuff at that time. Oh, Jamie Harrison, he's got a shot.

He raises $100 million. He gets blown out in the exact same margin. Trump won by 18%. Oh, sorry, Trump won by 18%. No, no, that's, yeah. Yeah, okay. So Trump won the state by 18%. So, but Logan, I mean, his actions here, in addition to some new reporting,

actually that just came out. They're reporting the Senate GOP is actually sending $5 million to shore up Darling Graham in South Carolina. So if I put those two things together, she made a phone call and she said, I'm in serious trouble here. So what does that tell you? It tells us that this is a very different election than 2018, which was one of Democrats' best years in the last 40 years, but they'd lost a seat in the Senate. And that was because it didn't carry over to red states. It was disproportionately voters in a lot of swing states and blue states. Pennsylvania. Exactly. All these gains in the suburbs, especially with white college-educated voters. Now you've got two types, right, that they're making the biggest gains. If it's

Latinos, in terms of geography where voters are concentrated. And then the second is they're getting a lot in these rural areas with white voters have had a college degree that Republicans would just completely feast on in terms of their margins. Those margins are getting a lot smaller. And so that's why we're talking about states like South Carolina and Kansas and Nebraska, where we normally, well, Nebraska seems to be a Dan Osborne thing, but those other ones, like, he's still probably going to win that race. Or Republicans are probably still going to win that race, but there's a chance they don't. This record is on. Miley is having a moment.

New name, exclusive shows. So IHart Radio is sending you to experience it all. Life at the Hollywood Polites, hotel, tickets, and $1,000 cash. Listen to IHard new music for 10 minutes a day on the IHart Radio app. And click enter. Every day you listen is another chance to win. Stream Miley's new album, Bass Persuades, today. Lisa?

We should tell them about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwano. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references,

occasionally different opinions. And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anyone fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.

We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how we're. accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I don't really care. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The

Improvised Character Comedy Podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know. Have you guys heard of faux journaling? Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading.

So we don't like to use that word anymore. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako and the Thousand paper cranes by Audra McDonald's at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th.

That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore though. Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up?

He winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never should. scene, it'll be so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on artists on the IHeard Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It's part of a trend and let me get your take on this, Logan.

So we have this new, let's put C7 up on the screen. So this is Senate Leadership Fund saying they're going to dump a bunch of money, $14 million in Kansas, in Kansas. Let me repeat that in Kansas. And we also have indications, C5, we're going to also put up on the screen here. This is Republicans pull a plug on two swing states as GOP's midterm prospects become increasingly grim. It's a daily caller report that Republicans are not going to spend in North Carolina and Georgia. Let's listen here to C4.

This is the chairman of the RNC being asked about North Carolina and Michael Watley, whether or not they're just giving up on Watley. Again, in North Carolina, let's roll the clip. Real quick, I do want to get your take on this report. about the fact that the money has been shifting away from North Carolina. This specifically seems to be the Michael Watley race and going over to Kansas. Your take on that? Well, listen, we love Senator Ricketts and I love my predecessor, Michael Wally. He still has a path. We're helping him in other ways. But listen, at the end of the day, we have 29 days to go.

As a party and, you know, as the collective, we have to make decisions and where can we cobble together the seats that we need while he's still in the mix. But at the end of the day, we have to maintain the majority because if we don't, the Democrats are going to fundamentally change this country. We have to win. We have no other option. We're going to make sure we make the best spending decisions. And at the end of the day, we have the candidates that we asked for that we recruited. We have the resources we need. We're pounding away in all these districts. And then we have our secret weapon in President Trump. Okay. So in case everybody missed it, what he said is Michael Watley, quote, still has a path. We are talking about North Carolina. You have the chairman of the

RNC saying the Republican candidate, quote, still has a path there. Logan. Are Republicans here accurately reading the tea leaves that they should be reallocating resources because some of these races are basically over? They should have done this yesterday and honestly far beyond yesterday. This was a race that I don't think they were going to win even in a right down the middle of year. I don't think they're going to win in a, I think in a red wave, this would be a tough race to win specifically North Carolina. Because Cooper is the best Democrat since this millennium has started. He has won every single presidential year from 2000 to 2020 because he's always running on the same ticket in the presidential year, unlike most states when they have the

governor race. And so he's won so many times when it's really tough. Same thing as Attorney General, by the way. That's why going back that far. So he's running against the guy that's a first time candidate in Michael Wilde, who is the former chair of the RNC. And that is not exactly the same type of position in terms of what you say and how you conduct yourself as running for the Senate because you're the cheerleader of the Republican Party. You have so many things tying you to the president on positions that you normally wouldn't defend. And he didn't make that adjustment while. I think the job you hold before you run for office can mean a lot. I saw that with Nikki Haley that she signed a little too much like a UN ambassador early on. And so like he kept defending

on Trump on things that you really shouldn't be saying, like saying the moment the moment inflation was now lower than Biden in December, where he had a moment in the sun. He was talking about prices have actually dropped dramatically, and nobody's... I don't remember. He didn't say nobody's worried about gas prices, but he said something like that. That is featured in every single Cooper attack had since then. Wow. And so this has really set him up for failure. So I think the contrast here is so big that Cooper himself has won this race.

Canada equality still matters so much at a time when people don't like both parties. We're seeing that in Maine. Maybe a little in Texas? We've seen that in Texas. Let's put to see, because I want to get your take on these latest New York Times poll, C6. We can put it up here on the screen. Here you have Alaska, they have at Peltola Plusa, which is crazy. I mean, a total flip there.

She got that bump. Alaska. She got that leak bump. Texas, Tala Rico at plus five. Ohio, Brown, plus three. Michigan, Al-Sai, at five. Kansas Tide. Iowa, Hinson, won.

Maine, Collins, 3. To me, the only, the shocking ones in there is Collins plus three and Peltola plus seven. Everything else seems kind of within, you know, what we had learned. I guess Kansas as well remained shocking. Give us your take here in terms of what you see. I know there's some numerous ones this morning, which actually show Troy Jackson winning. But yeah, what do you think about these various challenges? Yeah, I think Susan Collins has run a really impressive race.

This was a tossed-up race when the cycle was about three or four points more Republican-friendly than it is right now. She's her position to strengthen, I would argue, slightly. Interesting. So I think she's an underdog, but absolutely she can win. And the thing that she's doing, and Ashley Henson is doing, who seems to be doing a little better in the last few weeks, maybe, it's only a small change in the polls, is they're not, they haven't been saying this entire cycle that they're with Trump all the way and been focused on all these, like, transgender-related attacks, which is if your gas prices are high,

like, who really cares? I think that's why some candidates are just starting to pull back, because it's just not relevant to people's day-to-day life. And so she, you know, Hinson actually is a pretty conservative voting record, but she's kind of running on a Susan Collins type campaign except being more pro-Trump in talking all the time about how she's going to work with Democrats and talking about people's actually day-to-day concerns. That's what Catherine Cortez-Mastro did in Nevada.

Michelle Tofoya as well doing that, Minnesota. Exactly. And she's running much more competitively. Very much. Now, I have to imagine the weight of Minnesota will win out there, but we don't have that much high-quality polling, but all of it's showing it close. Yeah. All of it's showing it close. It's really crazy.

I mean, the regional dynamics here are fascinating. So, for example, how is it that Sherrod Brown can be up by three, but Tala Rico up by five? I mean, Ohio, 10 times more of a competitive state, in my view. And even if you were to say, candidate quality, I would put Brown way ahead of Tala Rico. But in Ohio specifically, I do want to ask you here about the gubernatorial race. There was a report yesterday. Let's put C8 up here on the screen that Vivek Ramoswamy has now loaned another. $5 million to his bid for governor, and he has now loaned his campaign over 36 million in this

campaign against Amy Acton, which I believe the Times called the single most nasty election at the statewide level. Amy Acton is having a field day with Vivek's December 2024 screed about how white people don't work hard enough or something like that. But what have you seen when it comes to Ohio. Because plus three for Brown is, that's a lot lower than I would have expected. Well, on average he does have a little bit of a bigger lead than Tala Rico. Tala Rico's leading by like four. Brown's leading by like five.

But I think the big difference is John Husted. He has voting record has been like with Trump all the time that's hurting him on the Medicaid cuts, which Brown is using against him. But he, Republicans in Ohio, traditionally win by a lot when they run people that have a sound more moderate

and normal. John Kasich. Rob Portman And then when you have someone That sounds more like J.D. Vance or to a greater degree Burning Moreno And then it's like a two or three point win And that in a big enough cycle can be a demwin

Especially when you have Sherrod Brown. So I think that is part of the reason why like Pax's, yeah, candidate quality matters And Brown's a great candidate But Paxon is like uniquely terrible And Republicans are doing uniquely badly with Latino voters And so that puts Texas in place where you can win it where Ohio, the coalitions aren't shifting as dramatically, even if on paper, this is an easier state.

But the gap between Texas and Ohio has shrunk a lot in the last 20 years because they're both moving in different directions. And quickly, what is your take on the Kansas numbers? We just put up that Senate Leadership Fund is pouring $14 million into that. It's starting to get really close in Kansas, very uncomfortable for Roger Marshall. Yeah, I think this kind of doubles down on this political article that came out recently, that they were doing this really deep study of tons of voters saying like what type of traits in a candidate

could make you potentially vote for them if you only knew like a handful of things. Religious Democrats do really well. We're seeing that in Texas. And you know, Adam Hamilton leads the biggest Methodist church in the country. I think it's Methodist, right? I think it might be non-denominational,

but I'll check that. He's a big church. They've done tons of charity drives to help kids that don't have beds or school books or anything along those lines. You're at United Methodist. Yeah.

And so there's something that I think that is kind of missing from Christianity and politics in that the whole empathy and help the poor part, which is like a central part of the religion, has been left out. And it's a huge opportunity

for Democrats who have shied away from religion. But if they're choosing the right candidate, it's like Hamilton. It's a Red State thing. It's a Red State thing that is just been missing because Red States just don't elect Democrats, especially statewide level. but it's literally the only way

you could ever get elected. It is fascinating. I mean, I think Roger Marshall just pulled an ad at the request of a church for something about there was some scandal, like a sex abuse scandal,

but it featured some members of the church. Some members of the church were like, hey, you need to pull this down. He did pull it down. I mean, none of these are inspiring in terms of their behavior. Last thing I did want to ask you about this, Maris poll,

came out this morning. They actually have round by plus eight, Tallarico, plus six. I keep trying to steal man this. So yesterday we put up Gerdusky analysis, which I thought was important, where he's like, look, I'm not saying this is impossible, but to take a state where a president went by double digits and to flip has only happened eight times in the last 25 years. It just doesn't happen that often. So to me,

I think the big question is, this may be an accurate reflection of the race today, but as we have seen in many races, Republicans, you know, they may not be enthused to vote about Donald Trump, but that doesn't mean they're going to have willing to just turn over Democratic control. They may just come out to vote just to be like, look, we cannot let this happen. you think there's some likelihood of that, like a Republican motivation to it, the very least say, look, I'm fed up with Trump, but the very, like, we cannot be having a statewide six-year senator, you know, to be from the opposite party who we vehemently disagree with. Well, lucky for me that you didn't ask me this question on September 1st, because the answer would have been yes. Yeah.

I'm not so sure now because it hasn't happened. I thought that's what was going to happen in September in places like Kansas. I really did. I didn't necessarily think in Texas because Paxton's kind of different, but surprisingly, we're not seeing the evidence of that. It's It's getting worse. So that's what happened in 2018. Yes, exactly. That's the migrant, the caravan situation, and the Kavanaugh. People were like, all right, look, maybe fed up with Trump, Charlottesville.

I'm pissed off, pissed off of the tax bill. But we can't let this shit happen. There's so many differences between those two years. And eight times in 25 years makes me think it's a lot more likely, actually, than without that information because Democrats' elite in the national ballot would be the biggest win they've had. And any parties had in a midterm since 40 years. ago. So in 1986. So this would be the year that those types of things happen. Now, do I think those numbers you just gave me for Maris that they're all going to be right? No. But Maris is one of the

best pollsters in the country. And I remember them showing Federman plus five or six and everyone laughing them off. And they were right about almost everything in 22. So they could be. That's like the high end for Dems. That's not what I'd expect, given their outliers. But I'm not counting them out. That's a very good point actually on Maris. If we take some of their midterm stuff going back, It was one of the very few that actually called it. All right, Logan, anything else that you're watching? Some bigger trends or I guess just generally, you seem to buy, not just being the polls, but fundamentals, focus groups and everything.

You do think Kansas, these states actually are in play, Iowa, et cetera. And I think that's, I mean, again, psychologically for me, it's just very hard to wrap my head around. It would break the paradigm of what I know. But I guess it's not all that unique if you read a book. States can change quite a lot in just a 15, 20. 20-year period. Yeah. Well, I think there's a real possibility it's in play. I think it'll certainly be more competitive than normal. I would say two things. One, Kansas has been moving like this towards Democrats cycle after cycle at a consistent level. It is still clearly a red state,

but this is way more competitive than it used to be. So you can talk about the stats about how Kansas has an elected Democrat, what, since the 1930s? But this is not the same Kansas, as much as it's not the same Texas, nor is it the same Ohio that it was in 2008. demographic change and you know you got the tariff situation high concentration of a certain economy diesel is destroying them Nebraska and all so it's like highly concentrated some of their policies like tariff and diesel and Iran seem like uniquely designed to just destroy chances in the Midwest but then keep things let's say maybe let more competitive or less of you know damaging in some of these other more economically dynamic states like blue states where they're overperforming yeah right I mean that's what it's fascinating Kansas voted down that abortion referendum in 2020, remember. I do remember that. Yeah, they elected a Democrat governor twice. Now I know that's a different type of race.

Yeah. But the thing I did not see coming at all on any planet was that the Senate race was going to look way more competitive than the governor race. The governor race isn't over. Democrats have a shot there, but there's like a two or three point gap in the polls there. Wow. Yeah, that is interesting. All right. Keep us updated, man. See you next week.

Thank you. All right, guys. Great to be on. Thank you. them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Yuanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa DiGulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.

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