Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 11/1/24: FINAL POLLS Show Kamala Movement In Blue Wall, Trump Calls Out Liz Cheney

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

The Breaking Points team discusses the latest polls leading into the final weekend before election day, and did Trump call for Liz Cheney firing squad? To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an iHeart Podcast. Hello, everybody. Happy Friday. We have an amazing Friday Points show for all of you. A little bit of election coverage. I know you didn't have enough election coverage. You haven't had enough discussion of the polls, but what you actually have not had enough in your life is the four of us all together. So this is a real preview of what is to come. And Ryan and Emily are going to give some predictions. That'll be fun. Crystal and I will preview a little bit of what is to come and ryan and emily are going to give some predictions that'll be fun crystal and i will uh preview a little bit of what we're going to talk about we've got what do we have on deck we have polls we're going to trump and cheney that's right well i was just going to say it's sort of funny because the way the first block is set up it's a clip of nate

silver being like all these polls are bullshit and then us proceeding to show you every poll that exists at this point so so that's the game we're gonna do that um we're also yeah trump uh making some waves with some new comments about louis janey um we'll show you those and her response and all of that and then jd vance on joe rogan we got a couple clips from that that we can share with you too so um yeah let's go ahead and jump into it um before i show the nate silver clip we aren't gonna have ryan and emily on air, I don't think until election night when we're all doing our live stream together in studio. So wanted to give you guys a chance for like your sort of polls are all basically tied. It's a coin flip. So it's just down to everybody's gut check of what they think is going on or reading a various tea leaves. So what do you guys? What do you guys think, Emily? Which way are you leaning at this point? Thank you for starting with me. I'm so eager to make this prediction. No, I mean, I've actually always had a feeling that Democrats just have a better chance in this election because

the right underestimates how unpopular Donald Trump is. And what I'm hearing from sources is that he's not making gains in the suburbs, but he is making gains in rural areas. Some of them are really excited about those big gains in rural areas, which sounds interesting in 2024, almost a decade into the Trump phenomena. But they're just, it's a numbers game, right?

Like there aren't as many rural voters as there are suburban voters. And as horrible of a campaign as I think Kamala Harris has run, especially in the closing three weeks um although she's kind of gotten it together this week but as horrible as of a race i think she's won i mean i i think anybody i think it's anybody's guess i think we're all on the same page about that but if somebody like put a gun to my head um i would probably say okay i guess but i'm gonna up the stakes it's not even just gun to your head give us each state what do you think the swings oh

that's brutal give us a little come on you gotta call you make a call chris you're not gonna do it you gotta make a call you're a bad person go get your makeup back on uh you like my white face i was deeply offended by that. Yeah, it was cultural appropriation, Sagar. That's all right. Well, okay. So I think Kamala Harris will win Wisconsin. I think she'll win Michigan. I think Trump will win Pennsylvania.

And I think Kamala's route, if she wins, will be through the Sun Belt. Wow. Really? So like North Carolina, Nevada kind of deal? I was going to say, she'd have to do some upset there. Okay, interesting. You and I are thinking similarly, but in a different direction. Ryan, what do you got?

I feel like this is that kind of election where afterwards it will look so obvious in hindsight. It always does. No matter who wins. Well, obviously, that's why that happened. But at this point, who knows i but it since i have to pick i think that kamala ends up holding pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin and losing basically everything else got it so 270 268 yeah that would give her exactly 270 right yeah as as long as she wins that one nebraska congressional which looks i mean the polling there has actually looked very strong for her so and then oh man

the public will be so mad at that one state senator bro oh my god that guy needs to change his name his address flee the state good luck i was just looking uh political shifted that district to uh lean not i think lean dem from toss up um so they're projecting that he's going to lose his seat the Republican who does hold that district which is pretty interesting that was a strong sign in terms of Nebraska too Ryan if it does if it does work out like you're saying like the 270 268

where she wins through the quote unquote blue wall states like what do you think will have happened there strength of suburban women or what do you yeah basically suburban women or what do you yeah yeah basically suburban women um uh and you know democrats are still getting like you know high 80s with the black vote uh and so even though they're bottoming it out in rural areas like the suburb you know if you have the suburbs if you're winning the suburbs and you're winning the cities, you can lose rural America.

Chris and I were joking on Twitter the other day that Trump relying on men is quite a risky bet. Actually, here's my ballot right here. I was just going to say, I think I lost my ballot, so I just found it. But I haven't sent it in. My wife sent hers in days and days ago. I'll probably go on election day uh and most men are gonna be like oh shit today god yeah and then some bunch of them aren't gonna show up yeah i've voted and kyle has not so similar time really yeah my wife and i voted together

i actually the one who told her i said babe we got to go to the polls i said what are we doing here i don't want to wait in line. And that was like a week ago. Saga is the exception. Yeah, Saga, you're an unusual creature, my friend. That's true. I know. Said with love. Said with lots of love.

I'm aware. All right. Let's go ahead and get to Nate Silver first, informing us of why everything we're about to do in the rest of this block is worthless. But anyway, here we go. This is Nate Silver talking about how the pollsters are hurting, meaning they're all putting their thumb on the scales to get basically a tied result. Let's take a listen to that.

Hold on. That's way too fast. Well, it's not too fast for me. Let me slow that down. All right. Here we go. One for you. Let me get my DMs out in here.

All right. Here we go. What do we got? 54-45 with a small chance of a tie. It's been a little weird. I mean, look, it's gradually drifted to Trump over actually a fairly long period now. I mean, you know, two out of every three days, Harris has lost ground on the forecast since roughly early October. You know, it looks like it should stabilize a bit maybe. since roughly early October.

It looks like it should stabilize a bit maybe. I don't think we're going to learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less. Every time a pollster, oh, every state is just plus one. Every single state's a tie. No, you're fucking hurting. You're cheating. You're cheating. Your numbers aren't all going to come out at exactly one point leads when you're sampling

800 people over dozens of surveys you are lying you're putting your fucking finger on the scale i will not name names but some posters are really bad about this i think yeah you get the gist there and this is something a phenomenon that we've been talking about about and i looked nate cone tweeted out what previous accurate um polling looked like back in you know 2012 when the polls were more accurate and he was showing like in each state here's how much of a distribution you got in turn you'd get someone who was like you know oh it's plus five barack obama oh actually mitt romney's leading and the average overall was very close but you had a lot of variability within that. Now, you guys know, I mean, we're about to look at a ton of polls, most of which are like forty nine, forty nine. Maybe Kamala's got a point edge.

Maybe Trump's got a point edge. And yeah, I think they're terrified if they say it's 50 50, then they can't be too embarrassed no matter what happens. And these are human beings with incentives. And they do human beings with incentives. And they do have the ability through making these likely voter model screens to put their thumb on the scales. And yeah, I think they are. Yeah, I tweeted this morning. I was like, one of the things my biggest pulling lesson from this election

is that pollsters don't have an incentive to get it right or even try. It's just an incentive to preserve future business by not going out on a limb. And I mean, that's frankly cowardly and a problem in an industry that is literally his entire job is forecasting. But that is very helpful to people who are looking at this or trying to use like 2020 or whatever type comparisons. The truth is they have the fear of God in them from two subsequent times of having such massive misses in them so we're going to show you some indicators but it's a lot more noisy i think uh than previously i mean that said there are some who are going out on a limb and for those we should take we should pay attention the ones who

are going out on a limb for trump and the ones who are going out on a limb for kamala because that actually in the future we could look to them as well. What do y'all think Ryan and Emily? It feels like a huge waste of everybody's time to assign all these people to make all these phone calls, have people sit through these surveys, then have analysts go through all the surveys. If they're actually just working backwards from their assumption, which is that it's now the,

the way they could all be wrong is let's say somebody wins a state by five points. And then but then they'll say, well, everybody missed it. So it's not it's not on me. Well, that's it. There's safety in numbers, too. That's the hurting part. If everyone is saying it's 50 50, the no individual pollster has to be the one that, you know, what was it they said? biden's gonna win wisconsin by 14 points or whatever so no one faces that level of reputational damage yes exactly right ryan's cat of course but um there are obviously structural problems that have not gone away meaning you have this like massive tech gap

between high propensity boomer voters and this goes back obviously years impulsors have been dealing with this for a long time and low propensity zoomer millennial voters who don't have landlines and they're adopting to the like that hasn't gone away there is no good way to deal with that everybody knows that so i think it's i think it's there there is some reasonable uncertainty um but i don't disagree with nate silver that people are playing a little fast and loose to preserve their themselves and it's also because people have gotten really pissed off about polling um yeah i think we used to before it became so polarized it used to be like okay well you know it's it's an art not a science and now it's just like man yeah well and i will say there's a lot more um punishment meted out when they underestimate republicans yes then like they missed in 2022 they underestimated dems but they didn't get

like ripped a new one over it so that creates certain incentives too and we know because of nate cone's analysis that they have basically tried to kludge just like we're just gonna assume that we're getting some trump non-voter response and so we're just gonna you know sort of kludge away to bump up his poll numbers many of the pollsters are doing that so we know they've really tried to adjust but they also could be that they're correct about that that they are missing some chunk of Trump voters that they missed in 2016 and missed again in 2020. So who knows? I just want to quickly say the Federalist posted an article this week that said the stigma around being a Trump supporter is gone.

And as Ryan mentioned on our show on Wednesday, he said, you know, if anyone would know, it's the Federalist. And that is affecting polling. There's no question about it. And what pollsters have been doing for the last couple of cycles is trying to address that, quote, shy Trump supporter. But what if the shy Trump supporter is totally gone and their adjustments are actually missing, that people are now much more eager to say, hell yeah, I'm voting for Donald Trump. You know, that guy I heard on Theo Vaughn,, the stigma is very, very different this time. Oh, yeah. So I thought that was an interesting point, too.

Who was it on our show that made a point that Trump supporters these days are not all that shy about saying they're voting for Trump? I think it might have been Logan that said that, wasn't it? I mean, it's definitely true. during this election uh the t-shirts the truck bumper stickers and the signs are more out of control than i've ever seen ever before and i lived in a place that voted 90 for george w bush i don't know that the shy trump voter theory was ever real because i think actually the problem in 2016 was just they didn't have enough non-college educated people it wasn't that people were like not admitting it was that they were not being sampled properly but um the democrats have a theory there's a shy kamala voter predominantly like women whose husbands are voting trump and they don't want to like cause marital distress

by admitting they want to vote for kamala and they've had a whole ad series it's been very controversial controversial dedicated to telling women like don't worry you still have your choice in the voting booth blah blah think Julia Roberts voiced one. Yes, she did. Chuck Rocha told me yesterday, actually on Undercurrents, he was like, no, that's 100% real. He said that they're absolutely seeing it. That's why they're putting money behind it, which I was totally skeptical of.

Maybe. But he's under the impression that's totally real. Well, we're going to find out. How would they know? How would they know after the fact? If it's real, how'd they find these women? Like, who told them? Yeah, that's an interesting question.

If they're not willing to talk about it. If they're so shy, they're not admitting it. Yeah, you'd have to just like. They just got them on Monday night while the dude was at the bar watching football. After the wine had a couple of glasses in after the kids were in bed. The consultants are in between their book clubs. Yes, it could be book clubs. was at the bar watching after the wine had a couple of glasses in after the kids were in bed the play group was infiltrated um okay all right i got poly market up on the screen here sagar tell me you you sent in this element tell me why this was significant to you so there's been uh movement there actually more recently it's gone back but But Crystal, can you hit politics, please, up at the top and just click the politics ones because I want to show people the battleground states specifically.

If you just scroll down a little bit and you look for Michigan and Wisconsin, you can actually see that she has taken the lead in both of those states. So that was a huge swing that just happened in the last 24 hours if you go back the same thing has now happened in wisconsin just in the last 24 hours there's been massive shift in both markets just from a pure betting point of view i've been talking about this a little bit on the show there has been basically like an ocean of dumb money that has come into polymarket that is purely trying to vote based on vibes the big problem yeah so there you go you can see kamala at 52 and all of that movement has happened literally

in the last 24 hours and actually more like in the last six hours basically what happened is uh in the early days of sports betting is that it was very similar where the sports books didn't really know how to quote unquote price a. And so what will happen is that you will have quote unquote sharp bettors, people who disagree with this, who will wait until the last minute, or they will lock in something that they see is very unfavorable to the odds. And this is a huge problem because polymarket has been dramatically out of step with just the basic Nate Silver model, which was the most accurate predictor of results in 2016 and in 2020. And so you can tell that the irrational exuberance has really happened,

has had a now a major correction. I wouldn't say that Trump won't maintain the lead just because I think a ton of money was already placed on Betts, his side. And of course, there's also a lot of narrative stuff going on with this. But you look at the state-by-state data the 270 268 path in particular that ryan is laying out is becoming a big bet on the on poly market with hot with tens of millions of dollars behind of it yeah yeah i mean it's also just significant because the right is focused so much and elon in particular has pumped up poly markets so much that it's like you know if it's shifting some shifting some, that's, I don't know, maybe it shouldn't be important, but it's interesting to look at. I mean, we've got billions, at least a billion five in the market. It's not small.

You know, this is a real thing. Sagar, there was a French billionaire who was gaming it for Trump, right? Like the mask to the poly market. Yeah, nobody really knows. But yeah. I mean, whether he was, you know, legitimately just really believed in Trump or was he also really French or French VPN. OK, so like let's very true here. I've got up the Marist final polls from the blue wall. Now, Marist is significant. We had on Edinger Mentum yesterday who called the 22 race correctly and called the Warnock election correctly as well and did not

buy into the red wave narrative and Marist was one of the polls that was correct in 2022 and it's one of the pollsters that he sort of like you know looks to the most as not falling in so much to the hurting and um you know and the the putting of the thumb on the scales as many other pollsters so they find here a tight race but pretty good for kamala she's up in all three of the blue wall states she's up 51 48 in michigan 50 48 in pennsylvania and uh 50 48 in wisconsin as well you've got the senate numbers here as well what also look quite similar for democrats um the the senate democrats in the blue wall are no longer outperforming kamala as significantly, at least as they were in the past. So less ticket splitting, it looks like there. But again, who knows?

Yeah, the Marist one in particular was the most interesting Marist. You can actually pick in either direction because it had big miss in 2020. That's what a lot of GOP people are talking about. It actually, though, was very accurate in 2020. That's what a lot of, you know, GOP people are talking about. It actually, though, was very accurate in 2022. That was one of the only ones that high quality so-called poster in 2022 that called Fetterman up by I think it was a two or three points in the state. So it's one to take advantage of looking for if you're looking for the signal there i think this and we're i think we're about to talk about this senior vote in pa are two like flashing signs of potential kamala victory in all three of those states yeah um that's that's exactly right let me see what i

got up next here next i've got another um i've got just the rundown you sent soccer of all the pennsylvania this is useful too yeah let me pull let me pull this up hold on let me see if i can not screw this up here we go um yeah here's the rundown of all the recent pennsylvania polling among likely voters maris as we said d plus two fox tie quinnipiac r plus one cnn tie cbs tie um so and then you've got more down here marist d plus three uh oh this is michigan wapo d plus one fox d plus two cnn d plus five michigan appears to be kamala's most certain state at this point um wisconsin d plus two d plus two d plus six and thai north carolina anyway it goes on from there a lot of uh um and then as you get to arizona is the state that is the swing state that is probably the most

favorable for Trump, either there or Georgia, where the polling has been a little bit more erratic, more of a more variability there. Yeah, I guess let's give the Trump case. I think don't you have Atlas, which is listed up next? Atlas was quite what was it the most accurate pollster in 2020. And yeah, I believe that one that one's listed next crystal in the rundown. Yeah, here we go. Right underneath there. So, yeah, there you go. And you can see wide margin of strength for Trump in Arizona, in North Carolina, in Nevada.

He's got a couple of points. Georgia actually has tighter at one point six just for Donald Trump. But they have Trump leads in all three of the states, with Wisconsin actually being the tightest one at point three. Emily, what do you make of that? There's on the betting markets right now, Wisconsin is actually what a lot of people have as going to be the tightest state for battleground state. I think it was the second tightest last time in or sorry, 2016. What do you think is going to happen there? I mean, both candidates have spent a truly outrageous amount of time there. Hillary Clinton, obviously, there's good reason for that. But it's, I mean, it's tied. That's how I see it. Like the RCP average has actually Harris up in in their national average. I'm

looking at it right now. They have her up in every blue wall state except for Pennsylvania. So in Wisconsin, it's only by 0.3 though on the national RCP average. So it's just, they have a huge Senate race. And I know like Ryan and Crystal, you guys have covered Tammy Baldwin's career for a long time.

She's very popular in Wisconsin. The Republican candidate has inflation and immigration going for him, but he's kind of, I actually interned for him when I was, but a young, a young student and his other things going against him, just, you know, being an out of state, you know, multi, multimillionaire or someone who's pegged as out of state. So it's too close. And I know that's not very useful, but I have sources saying they're seeing in Wisconsin in particular, the rural margins going up, which again, I find just fascinating. Like now people say, I'm turning out for Trump and I'm voting for Trump in these rural areas after nearly a decade

of the Trump phenomena. But they say they're clearly not confident in the suburban margins. They either feel like they're going to keep losing in the wow counties, that's Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington outside of Milwaukee. And if their margin Trump will win all of those counties, but if he keeps losing, or if he keeps winning by less, then that's a real disaster. Yeah, I don't know that you can mathematically make up for that with the rural voters. And I think Ryan probably sees something similar as a pennsylvania guy when you look at the collar counties outside philadelphia um we got some uh new two new cnn battleground polls as well um they had already released their blue wall polls and to their

credit showed you know something other than a tie. They showed Harris with a significant lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and then it tied in Pennsylvania. This time they've got Georgia, Trump, 48-47, North Carolina, Kamala, 48-47. So there you go. Whatever you can make of that, I don't really know. But, you know, if this was all accurate, perfectly accurate, I guess Kamala would win depending on Nevada. But this Pennsylvania being a tie really kind of really kind of screws it up.

Yeah, there to be able to make any sort of real prediction based on any of that. Yeah, I mean, look, if you put the polling aside, you know, let's focus on the actual like vote and stuff that we're seeing. Yeah, I'm glad you put this up there on the screen. This has been the thing I've heard. I have a few friends who are real like GOP Cassandras, like they're 100 percent convinced Trump is going to lose. And I always check in with them because it's a very good check. This is one of the ones that they've been pointing to me a lot. Quote, as the early results from PA reveal an influx of first time female voters who will break for Harris. Newfound anxiety is taking hold. And in Mar-a-Lago, they're starting to believe that the surge last week was two weeks premature. Put the

whole surge stuff, you know, like out of it, because a lot of this is I don't even necessarily know if like the current vibe of the election would have affected that. I think the truth is that the electorate has just changed a lot. And this is one of the big problems with the 2020 recall to vote waiting that a lot of these pollsters are doing. We were talking right before, Crystal, about in-migration. The character of each of these states, specifically the battleground states, has changed dramatically in terms of North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, just population-wise. Then add on top of that, that you have had not similar changes in the blue wall states, but demographically, you've had that massive suburban swing that has happened for Kamala Harris.

It's a hidden sign of strength for her. It always has been. Trump's major strength would be his ability to drive out that rural vote, like Emily said. And one of the signs of strength for him is, for example, in Georgia today, there is actually a higher turnout amongst rural counties. Some of these rural counties are already at 92 percent of their Election Day totals before the ballots have even been cast on Election Day. And they are much higher, some like 30 percent higher than actually in the suburban counties in Georgia that are surrounding metro Atlanta. So the only really way that this election will turn for Trump is if there is

there is that similar like strength, even more like 110 percent in the rural counties and specifically also with the black and Latino vote to offset any white suburban shift. But this is why it is still such a very, very tight race here. That's what I really saw. Ryan, in 2016, Schumer famously said, basically, like, you know, for every voter we lose, that's working class or rural will gain two in the Pennsylvania suburbs. And, you know, this indicates that that math may actually now be paying off, I guess. I mean, basically he was running a cynical math game that we are a country that is like, you drive around our country, we're a suburban country. Like it's just, it's suburbs from coast to coast, uh, plus then some cities like inside there. And then you get out in the rural areas,

those are pretty suburban like it's it's it's i think i think more people consider themselves living in a rural area than actually do live in a rural area um now if people vote based on how they feel and identify then that then it doesn't actually matter that they're wrong about where they live but yeah i mean the democrats are going to test the theory, like, how badly can you completely bottom out among an entire kind of regional sector of the vote and still maintain a nationwide competitiveness? This part is so key to that you have in front is this Trump lagging in the early vote with seniors. And I was thinking about it. if kamala is given the white house in 270 268 by boomers in

pa but trump wins the black latino vote and he actually wins all the most economically dynamic states which is across the sunbelt we'll have like one of those reverse 2016 uh situations where what did hillary say she was like i won all the places what did she say though she was like we're dynamic and growing or something like that yeah and he won all the places what did she say though she was like dynamic and growing or something like that yeah and he went all the places they're doing bad it actually would be the opposite this time around which kind of fits if you think about my whole barstool conservative thesis about like you know libertarian economics and specifically the type of people who would move to a sunbelt state where the election you know where the economy is the preeminent one as

opposed to pa where it's pretty clear like a lot of the people who are coming in for come on, the Democrats are coming on the back of abortion. And it's just like one of the number one catalysts for that surge in suburban vote, and specifically also with women. And let me just quickly put some numbers on this, because I have them in front of me. This is according to Pew, to just visualize the difference between rural, suburban, and urban voters, 46 million Americans live in the nation's rural counties, 175 million in its suburbs and small metros, and then about 98 million in its urban core counties. So, I mean, it's really just, it's not even close. Yeah. Yeah. And I guess the other question with the early vote that people have been raising, you know,

where there's huge early turnout in these rural counties is at the end of the day, where these just people who are going to show up on Election Day and now they're showing up early, you know, so it doesn't really impact the turnout margin, et cetera, in these counties. And, you know, still very much too early to tell on any of that. Next, we have another, you know, if you're making the bull case for Democrats, this is the enthusiasm numbers. And you can actually see that they have maintained.

Now, Democrats have actually slid a little bit since basically like Kamala's pick, but still they have maintained very high enthusiasm numbers, higher than the Republicans. And, you know, I feel like you can get that vibe a little bit. Some of Trump's rallies are a little bit more low energy than they used to be. Certainly massive turnout for Kamala in the places where she is popular on the, you know, the ellipse where you guys were the other night. I've also seen numbers which are kind of wild to me that she's as popular with democrats as barack obama was at his like peak in 2008 which is you know surprising but in any case he also faced a primary uh and the clinton people hated him they that is true you also at that point had

more people who are in that like you know appalachian in particular I still identify as a Democrat but I'm really not a Democrat outside of maybe like voting for county officials and most of that realignment has all uh shaken out that's played out right yeah um all right let me see what I got here next this is um interesting about where the turnout is that rural turnout this is from Greg Blustein down in georgia great reporter at atlanta journal constitution he says the highest early voting turnout in georgia is not in democratic strongholds like dekob county or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround metro atlanta it's in sparsely populated rural counties where republicans dominate so um this is

what what you guys have been talking about. You know, like I said, the Democratic cope here is that, OK, but those people are just going to vote on Election Day. So no big deal. And also, by the way, there's not enough of them. But it can also be an indicator of, hey, this, you know, your opponent is really fired up like they are turning out to vote early in potentially unprecedented numbers. It's totally what I'm hearing from Republicans. That's really where they're getting their source of hope from right now is what they're seeing in early voting in rural areas. And I mean, is there a nervousness there, though?

Like, there's a lot of bravado publicly, but are you like we we showed the reporting, I believe, from Puck News earlier that said there was anxiety in particular about Pennsylvania. Is that accurate to the best of your knowledge? Totally. And that said, and Sagar, you're probably seeing this too. It's almost polarized within like GOP circles where you have some people who are feeling jittery because of that. And then you have other people who are like, actually, we're going to see Trump win the popular vote. He's going to sweep the blue wall. And he's been surging the last few weeks. She's been struggling. We've just seen him be underestimated in those national averages. And the fact that he's tied means that he's probably up by three or four points. And so election day comes around and you see him win Wisconsin by two. You see him winsylvania by three you see him just absolutely crush north carolina and georgia and uh we it's we we know the answer pretty early so i people are like in one of

two camps there aren't a lot of people in the middle people are either like these numbers uh have us feeling a little uncomfortable because the suburban vote or people like actually he's being underestimated the other caution i would throw out for people out there is there's a real public private game happening right now. So I noticed this with like Democratic election experts, like everything is about like, well, actually, here's why the Democratic turnout's like not that bad. Or actually, here's why, you know, the Democratic turnout is going to be OK. And there's also a huge I mean, because Twitter right now is signal boosting like so much pro-Trump content, there's a real effort to try and just like demoralize the left by saying like, oh, it's going to be a Trump blowout victory. It's going to be this. The smart ones, the smarter ones, I will say, are people like Mike Cernovich and Charlie Kirk, who I noticed, you know, were originally doing that.

But when they got the data in, they were like, OK, we have a problem here. Men are not voting. We need to get our asses out we need to go vote right now but there is still i have noticed like a commentator or a polling analysis types which have grown up on the right which are very very obviously geared to trying to demoralize the left um and so you i'm what i'm saying that is for people who are out there who are just scrolling you may not know that is you should really like think about the motivations also of the poster. Sometimes a lot of it is not honest analysis. I saw a lot of this back in 2020.

Oh, Trump, you know, Virginia is in play. It's like, no, it's not. You know, it's not like we just saw a Roanoke poll this morning has Karis up by 10 points. Or remember, in 2020, New Mexico is in play. Like, again, no no it's not you know trump lost it by more in 2020 than he did in 2016 and he'll probably lose it by i mean polls just saw this morning in new mexico is down by 12 so now why is trump in both of these states in the last week of the election beats me you know it's all politics is national so it kind of doesn't really matter

where he does the rally at this point. If the rally gets coverage. Ryan, are you get, do you get any vibes from the democratic side or they're too mad about you opposing their genocide to talk? No, no.

Their vibe is nervous. With some cautious optimism that they're in it. Like they've. Isn't the democratic vibe always nervous, though? Yes. I agree with that. Except 2016, they were. Yeah. Yes.

Yeah, famously not nervous in 2016. They will never be confident again. Let's book the Javits Center. Yeah. Yeah. I was there, man, at the Javits Center. It was sad. It was a sad place to be, let me tell you.

It was a sad place to be. All right, we got some dueling endorsements here. Let me just quickly go through these. We got LeBron James sharing some Tony Hinchcliffe and endorsing Kamala Harris. I won't play the video, but it's like, you side, Jake Paul endorsing Donald Trump. And I actually didn't I'm not sure what the content is of this video. I didn't 18 minutes of Jake Paul's explanation for his endorsement. Maybe somebody else here can share some more insight there. No, I mean, it's, you know, as an original Team 10 person. This is, of course, shocking to see somebody who I used to watch doing prank videos now literally endorsing Trump. But look, Jake Paul, Logan Paul, it's not a surprise.

There were two who are original, like from some of the early influencers who were kind of flirting with and or endorsing Trump, interviewing him. It's if you if you look at the world that they swim in from crypto to boxing, UFC, like the bro sphere online, it's very obvious what that trend and direction is. For example, like Jake was a big Vivek Ramaswamy guy. Right. So there you go. Like, where does that come from? It's very much like the podcast world. And so, I mean, this is a big bet. And that's right.

And what you just talked about. The bet is, is these people will come out to vote. Now, statistically, it doesn't really happen. But 2020 was a very high turnout election. We don't think that 2024 will reach 2020 levels, but it'll probably be higher than 2016. I think the youth vote was higher in 2020 than it had been in quite a long time. So, so you know if you see people who are jazzed up and potentially you know this could be something that swings in their direction uh so i i don't i wouldn't dismiss it because if their theory of the the male turnout and the gender gap is correct especially in terms of enthusiasm getting people out to vote it will be

like genuinely a landmark moment especially in some of those swing states um where if that's what the margin of victory is it'll be pretty crazy yeah and it's a huge long-term problem for democrats regardless even if they eat this one out just not having democrats even be part of the conversation among like one of two genders is, is insane. Like every, like pretty much everything that, that, that men do ends up being coded as Republican and right wing, whether it's like exercise, trying to stay healthy,

watching sports, like just, you know, talking about like talking about sports, whatever it is, like it, it drifts into like the world of conservative podcasting. And they're just other than like Hassan piker there's like nobody there you're there ryan me other than me there

and you and hassan piker i don't know that i'm really helping but um um i mean of course i mean the flip side of that is obviously Republicans struggling with women. And the bet that's being placed in this particular election is Republicans think the motivation of like the podcast circuit and Trump going on Rogan and Jake Paul endorsing and whatever will be sufficient motivation and energizing enough on the bro side to overcome the sense among many women and young women, especially that they have lost a right that they previously took for granted. And it's kind of incredible that she didn't, it's kind of incredible. She didn't take up the Joe Rogan opportunity. And I wonder if she'll kind of be the last one that blows that. If she loses,

that will be a huge retcon. That'll be one of those like, Oh, here's what we got to do. Not Rogan specifically. I'm just not as sold on it because there's a lot of risk there for her. Right. As we know.

She individually may not just be equipped for three hours of that. Exactly. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah. And then it's like, how many of these people are winnable, motivatable, et cetera? I don't really disagree with their analysis of basically like, how many of these people are winnable, motivatable, et cetera. I'm just, I, I,

I don't really disagree with their analysis of basically like, Hey, if you'll do an hour and come to us, I guess we'll make it work. But in the home stretch, we've got other fish to fry. I think a lot of them would have been winnable, but not necessarily by her.

True. What they need is a candidate who can sit down for three or four hours. Yeah. Like I think, you know, Bernie did like, you know, Rogan's audience, I think, at that point, and Rogan himself was ideologically different when Bernie sits down with him. And Bernie also, by the way, didn't do three hours. But people liked him on that podcast, and he was able to, you know, go with the flow and, like, do his Bernie thing.

He just did a great Lex Friedman. Well, I was just going to say quickly, it's a problem for Democrats, obviously, but it's a huge problem for Republicans. There are abortion referendums on the ballot when people are going to vote all over the country right now. So the gender gap, which literally, as we were talking, I had a GOP source say we will see the largest gender gap in an election in decades. Well, it gets us right back to the same math that we're doing between rural and suburban. It's like you can win all of the bros. But Megan Kelly and Nikki Haley, even this week after the Madison Square Garden rally, were like, dude, you are turning off women. So it's not even just abortion. It's just the bro

coded stuff. Like you can try to amp up the male voters, just like you can try to amp up the rural voters for turnout. But then does it go too far in that direction? And do you hurt your margins in other places? All right, we're going to turn now to Liz Cheney. Donald Trump did an event last night with Tucker Carlson, made some, quote unquote, eye-popping comments. We can debate what exactly he said, whether it even should be all that controversial. But Crystal, do you have it? I do.

Let me let me pull this up here. Here we go. This is getting a lot of attention on cable news and with Democrats in particular. So here, let's take a listen. Amazing that you would do this. And I didn't speak to him about it. But then, you know, go a couple of years forward to go now. And I don't blame him for sticking with his daughter. But his daughter is a very dumb individual. Very dumb. She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrel shooting at her. OK, let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.

You know, they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, well, let's send let's send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy. But she's a stupid person. And I used to have I have meetings with a lot of people and she always wanted to go to war with people. So whether it's her, whether it's sick, I was surprised a little bit with Dick Cheney. I didn't know him at all. I only had essentially the one or two phone calls. And it was only a call saying, thank you very much for doing that for Scooter Libby. That was nice. And Scooter Libby, by the way, was beyond that. He couldn't believe that it happened.

Nobody would do it. They should have done that for him years before. But I was a little surprised because I actually thought that Dick Cheney would go with me over his daughter, and he didn't. And you know what? I understand it. It's your daughter and you go. But she's a bad person

so um to me well i'll let i'll let the rest of you guys react but it's kind of wild to me that he was sad that he didn't get the dick cheney endorsement see cable keeps talking about that for me i'm like bro we don't want the dick cheney endorsement. That's the whole point. Like, Dick is way worse than Liz. Way worse. Like, she's got the bad ideology. Like, he did the thing. Like, and you're still like, gosh, I wish Dick Cheney had endorsed me. It just shows you, to me.

And then we can talk about the comments that, you know, I think for reasons that are, you know, not unreasonable that got picked up on where he was saying saying you know. Let's see her with the guns pointed at her face. Or something like that. But you know. It shows you all of this. Oh the neocons are with Kamala. And Trump is anti-war. And whatever. None of this is ideological for him.

He still loves Mike Pompeo. Mike Pompeo might be the secretary of defense. Tom Cotton might be the secretary of defense. He's still pining after the Dick Cheney endorsement. He campaigned with Liz Cheney last time he ran and she supported him throughout his entire term in office. So for him, it's just all about number one, like how sort of prestigious he thinks you are. So he thinks Dick Cheney, because he was vice president, he's well known, blah, blah, blah, is prestigious, even though he's like, to me, one of the most evil, most nefarious politicians we've ever had in American politics. But then number two,

and most importantly, it's not about ideology. It's about how do you feel about me personally? And did you come through for me personally, when I needed and wanted you? If you're looking for ideological coherence from Donald Trump and your Republican voter, I've got some bridges to sell you in terms of the cable comments. So I will I will quote from Zach Beauchamp, who can we all agree Zach Beauchamp is a is a major liberal Kamala Harris type figure. He says, folks, Trump did not threaten to execute Liz Cheney. He actually was calling her chicken hawk, something liberals have said about her for ages. Look at the context. Trump is talking about giving her a weapon.

Typically, people put in front of firing scarves aren't armed. Trump does so many offensive things. He makes so many anti-democratic promises. It is counterproductive to get outraged about fake ones. That and if you also combine Glenn Greenwald's long list there of all the chicken hot comments that people have made throughout the 2000s about the Cheney's, that is one of the most sane things that Trump has actually said about Liz Cheney. So I'll leave it at that. I think he's making a legitimate point, but it's somewhat amusing that he's making the point as they are

saying that Kamala Harris calling him a fascist and a Nazi is incitement to another assassination attempt. So if we're playing this game, I mean, obviously, we can't hold the political candidates to this. Thank you for saying that. Emily, can you sound off on this? What did Mark Cuban say? Something about like stupid women? He was like, no intelligent women. Trump had an all time Hall of Fame level tweet.

Yes, I saw that. Yeah, where he he's like he doesn't even have club speed this is to where let's let's let's let's talk about golf right yeah republican um republican snowflakes on this they're like i'm a strong woman and i support trump i'm like you are just as much of a loser then as those pussy hat wearing liberals if you're out there like sorry like you know like do we reject identity stuff or not like are we getting offended at things or not and it's like the selective bias on this drives me crazy because they're like mark cuban doesn't respect women because he said smart women don't surround themselves with trump and they're like i'm a smart woman who works for donald trump i'm like, that's like Hillary Clinton era, like bullshit.

So anyway, thank you for saying that. Thank you for saying that. Well, no, I mean, it's virtue signaling, right? Like it's what's so insufferable about virtue signaling on the left is that there's a sanctimony to it. And it's the same thing when it's on the right. Now, Mark Cuban said something really dumb, by the way, from the interior of what appeared to be his private jet while he was beaming into the view and assuring everybody that kamala harris would be the best president for them so it's it's amusing all around like there are real no no real winners here in this situation but i do think it is a little bit precious to defend donald trump saying let's see liz cheney with a gun in her face um and by the

way the reason because you know if kamala or tim Walz or Mark Cuban or whatever said that about, let's say, Tulsi Gabbard or Trump himself, there would be quite a reaction, you know, coming coming from that side with that level of like, you know, visceral, violent type rhetoric. I mean, again, though, it's a war hawk comment. It's like, hey, put a gun in her face and see how she doesn't work that's the chicken hawk point that's you know i mean i remember saying shit like that about george w bush right like and i think it was fine uh anyway look and it's what do you think ryan i think it's not fair for people to want descriptions of war to be more sanitized like that because that's basically what they're saying they're like they're saying it's okay to call somebody a chicken hawk uh but you should leave it at chicken hawk and say they should go to war. But when you get into the grisly details of what war is, that's a little bit too much. And that nobody who's ever experienced the hell of it would think it is anything other than hell. Now, some people who've experienced it still think it's necessary to create the world that we want to live in, etc. But the idea is that it is hell and it is grisly.

And people do have guns pointed at their face and bullets that rip through their skulls and their lives. And that's seeing it change, seeing it and being part of it changes you so i think it's just kind of unfair to say like you can call someone a chicken hawk but you can't like describe the grisly details of war because that that's the whole yeah well under it all is the whole that's the whole point there's of course another element to this which is that trump himself used bone spurs to get out of serving. Liberals used to say that. He's a draft dodger.

It's true. He's a draft dodger. Yeah, it's a totally fine thing to say, too. Yeah. But his own Vietnam, you guys all know. Oh, yeah, not getting STDs. Oh, yeah, avoiding chlamydia. Yeah, that was his Vietnam. That's right.

He served in the war against chlamydia. Thank you for your service. So this is Liz Cheney's right. He served in the war against chlamydia. Thank you for your service. So this is Liz Cheney's response. She says, this is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant. feel like you know while they're trying to lay the uh fascist charge at his feet and they're also trying to change the topic from a news cycle about whether or not joe biden said that uh trump supporters are quote-unquote garbage um i think they are happy to seize on these comments as well and as a reminder that of some of the things that people really don't like about donald trump and um you know i've been thinking about this hour because we've been going back and forth a little bit on this but part of what has made

trump hold up so well in this election is that his approval rating is significantly higher than he used to be and so he's still underwater in most polls by you know by some amount but not nearly where he used to be. And so Democrats paid advertisements or by and large going after, like it's more of like a class war message, but obviously Kamala did the ellipse speech. They amplified the comments from John Kelly saying, hey, I serve with this guy and he is a fascist.

And so they feel like this very visceral invocation of violent rhetoric kind of fuels and serves to remind people of some of the elements of him that they don't like and plays into their argument about who he is ultimately. OK, I'll give it to them. I mean, because they've got the media on their side, basically, they are literally saying on CNN all morning, they're like, oh, if he wants to put Trump or Liz Cheney in a firing squad, if I combine that with the senior figure, I will say, yeah, that's a problem now again i don't

i think it's a dishonest presentation by cnn and msnbc based on that but if the senior vote is correct the numbers that are coming out right now i mean just anecdotally seniors who i've spoken to um they bring up the wildest shit you know they'll be like oh did you see trump called you know veterans suckers and losers i'm like like, bro, what? Like, that's a bullshit story. But they don't want to hear it. Like, that's the type of stuff that they take in. The type of things that piss them off, more what I'll say, is just so different than I think a lot of people who watch our show.

So I could see this presentation by CNN and MSNBC and all of that feeding into that crystal because that is specifically the, that is the strategy of the Harris Cheney voter. I mean, like we see this, for example, in PA at that event. It was not an accident. Ryan, you'll know it was in Malvern, one of the wealthiest, I believe the wealthiest city,

one of the wealthiest in the mainline suburban Philadelphia area. So I could see it. And then, you know, a lot of older voters there in that in that respect it's true look i think there are decorum voters absolutely you know not just older i think i don't i don't think just older i think you know the the suburban women vote that they're chasing very hard like i think there are who you know respect liz cheney for whatever reason whether they should or not as, I don't even think that's a question they shouldn't. But But yeah, I think there is a decorum voter out there who feels like these comments are too far who don't want the visceral description of war, even though that

should be put in our face more often, to your point, Ryan. Yeah, I'm in the minority on this. Yeah, I mean, I was just gonna say the reason that Liz Cheney is being deployed is specifically for women voters. And so the bro code thing, you, which is suburban swing women voters who might be persuaded by Liz Cheney to vote for Kamala Harris. And so it's not a huge group of people. But Trump then saying, yeah, let's see what happens if she gets blasted in the face or you put a rifle in her face. I shouldn't misrepresent the comments, but put a rifle in her face i shouldn't misrepresent the comments but um put a gun in her face those people are probably already leaning towards kamala harris but it's not it's definitely not helpful because the media is going to run with it all day on cnn and it'll just it's not probably the closing argument of the republican streams yeah i mean we're not going to cover jd because we're out of time but i mean this is the problem with having somebody who just talks a lot like and, you know, it's like if you compare the appearances, I challenge I challenge people out there. Listen to Trump and J.D. on Rogan back to back.

Same interviewer, you know, like same studio and all that. And you tell me who has a better command of the facts, a better articulation of the case, a better like cares about you, like better on every single thing that people say that they like. But then also we know that, you know, Trump is the person who won the GOP primary. So that also tells us quite a bit about what those voters want from him. So there you go. Yeah, well, I think we'll probably maybe cover on Monday. Sorry, you and I can talk more about the JD Vance interview. But I mean, he has positioned himself very well within the republican party you know but now it all comes down to trump how this election goes does he win does he lose what is the stop this what is the flavor of the stop the steal this time if trump does lose does jd go

along with it like there's still a lot of tripwires for him but um no doubt in terms of like the conservative base he has done himself a lot of favors there. Very true. All right. That's a good tease. Ryan M. Thank you for joining us, guys.

This was fun. Good time. Yeah. Like you guys opened up by saying it was a Friday points or points Friday. Cause that way you don't. Yeah. He's in Friday points. Yeah.

It's Friday. Are they breaking or are they countering? Nobody knows. That's up to the judge. We report. You decide. We report. You decide. All right. We'll see you guys later. Have a good weekend, y'all. Bye. nobody knows the judge right we report you decide we report you decide all right we'll see you have a good weekend y'all bye this is an iHeart podcast