Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 1/24/24: Nikki Refuses To Drop Out After Trump Win, Biden Wins New Hampshire, IDF Caught Committing War Crimes On CNN, SCOTUS Smacks Down Texas In Biden Border Fight, And Ryan Gosling Fumes Over Oscar Snub
Episode Date: January 24, 2024Ryan and Emily discuss Nikki Haley refusing to drop out after Trump's win, Biden wins New Hampshire as voters register Israel fury, IDF commits war crime in front of CNN journalist, SCOTUS sides with ...Biden over Texas in border dispute, and Ryan Gosling fumes over Oscar Snub for the Barbie movie. To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.supercast.com/ Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Good morning, everybody. Happy Wednesday. I don't usually get to say that, it's great to see you again Ryan, my friend.
Everybody likes to fist bump and we've got a resident hall monitor here, Emily Jaschinski.
I'm actually taking over their show, so here there she is, Emily, joining us live from the state of California.
Got up early for all of us, thank you all so much.
Crystal unfortunately not able to join us whenever kids is sick. But we're gonna have a little bit of breaking reaction to all of the
election results last night in the state of New Hampshire. I'm also gonna stick around.
We'll edit this so that it's perfectly in the show. We're gonna talk about Barbie.
Did Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie get snubbed or not? It's gonna be a fun conversation.
Soccer has thoughts. Yeah, I've got a lot of thoughts.
We're brooding about this.
So many thoughts.
All right, all right.
Before we get to the fun, before we get to the fun, we got to eat your vegetables too.
We're going to get to the election season.
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Our crew worked overnight, made sure that everything was available. Look at that fancy little graphic there,
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groups and so many more election plans that we have and some other expansion things that you
should stay tuned for, including some of the people who are at this desk. But before we tease far too much of our plans, let's actually break down what the
hell happened in New Hampshire. I brought everybody the news last night that former
President Donald Trump did win the New Hampshire primary. We now know exactly how much he won.
And he gave a victory speech last night, very much framing this as a general election victory.
Let's take a listen to what he said. Well, I want to thank everybody. This is a fantastic state. This is a great,
great state. You know, we won New Hampshire three times now, three.
We win it every time. We win the primary. We win the generals, we've won it. And it's a very, very special place to me.
She ran up when it was seven.
And, you know, we have to do what's good for our party.
And she was up and I said, wow, she's doing like a speech like she won.
She didn't win. She lost.
And, you know, last last week we had a little bit of a problem. And if you remember,
Ron was very upset because she ran up and she pretended she won Iowa. And I looked around,
I said, didn't she come in third? Yeah, she came in third. And then I looked at the polls. She was
talking about most winnability, who's going to win. And I had one put up. I don't know if you see it, but I have one put up.
We've won almost every single poll in the last three months against Crooked Joe Biden.
Almost every poll.
And she doesn't win those polls.
And she doesn't win those.
This is not your typical victory speech, but let's not have somebody take a victory when she had a very bad night.
The other thing, she only got 25% of the Republican votes. All right. So that's going to be a very
common talking point there. Nikki Haley, we can now say did win about by, but did lose. I apologize.
I guess a win maybe in her book we can discuss by about 11 points last night, Donald Trump getting
some 54% of the total vote.
Now, before we get to everybody's thoughts, Nikki did, and we want to preview this because
this really does set up the conversation.
She really did give a speech as if she had won.
He's not joking and neither are we.
Immediately, almost after the polls closed, some 8.30 p.m. that she appeared on the stage.
She pledged that she was going to keep going.
We have some of that video.
Let's take a listen.
We're all going to react on the other side. I want to congratulate
Donald Trump on his victory tonight. He earned it. And I want to acknowledge that.
Now you've all heard the chatter among the political class.
They're falling all over themselves, saying this race is over. Well I have news for all of them. New
Hampshire is first in the nation it is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over.
There are dozens of states left to go.
And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina. With Donald Trump, Republicans have lost almost every competitive
election. We lost the Senate. We lost the House. We lost the White House. We lost in 2018 and we lost in 2022. The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats
want to run against Donald Trump. All right, very enthusiastic crowd. I can say that for the
Nikki Haley people who are there in attendance. So guys, Emily, let me go first to you and get
your initial reaction. If you want, we can put the results up there on the screen and you can
react to some of the things that we saw there. There we go. 54% for Trump, 43% for Nikki Haley,
and 0.7 for Ron DeSantis. Interesting for whoever those people were. What do you make of last night?
Yes, just when everyone thought they had a bro show, I am here to play hall monitor, but I will also add that Nikki Haley
has spent an obscene amount of money.
So let's just, for a moment, pause
and recognize that she outspent everyone in Iowa.
She also now outspent everyone in New Hampshire.
I have the information right in front of me.
This is from CNN.
They say, according to ad impact data,
Haley's campaign and supportive outside groups have spent more than $31 million on advertising in New Hampshire just
since the start of 2023. Now, so far in 2024, they wrote Haley's campaign and its allies have spent
about $12.3 million in advertising compared with about $9.8 million for Trump and his allies.
So just take that and put it back up with the fact that
she lost by 11 points. She lost by double digits in Iowa. She lost by double digits in New Hampshire.
And she is now saying that there's still some path to put up that much money, lose by double
digits, that there's some path that she has to the nomination. She does not have a path to the
nomination. The media enjoys a competitive
storyline, and Nikki Haley is going to continue to get money. She can ride this out as much as
she wants, because people will continue to give her money, at least for the next month or so.
She is down, and you heard her there just say her sweet state of South Carolina. Guess what the
polling, the RCP averages? It's Trump at 52, Nikki Haley at 21, 52 to 21.
So not even all the money in the world can get Republican voters to like Nikki Haley.
So to the extent that Nikki Haley continues to be a factor in this election, it is because
the media and her wealthy donors continue to sponsor her.
It is not because the Republican voters,
we're not talking about the general electorate, is not because the GOP voters have any interest
in Nikki Haley. Ryan, what's your reaction? Well, one quick little kind of fact check point on
Trump. You notice at the very beginning, he said, we've always won the primaries. True.
We also win the generals. He did this funny pause where I think you could see his
wheels turning where he's like, oh, wait, I actually haven't won the general elections.
Yeah, he didn't win the general elections. I'm glad you pointed that out. I was going to.
And then he's like, but I'm going to say it anyway. What's the difference? I'm just going to
go. But Emily's point is great because, you know, you can look at this and say, oh, well, she only
lost by 10 plus points or so. But when you consider the fact that she
so massively outspent him and her supporters so massively outspent him, it raises the question
of how on earth you can sustain that. Because if she doesn't outspend at that scale, she loses by
maybe 20 or 25 points. And a kind of narrow-ish loss just looks like a complete blowout. This race is over.
I don't, does she have something where she wants to be humiliated in South Carolina,
or is she going to drop out before that? It seems to be the only question left.
I really have no idea. And I mean, look, for people who are saying, you know,
maybe you guys are being unfair. You know, she did, she didn't lose by 20. She only lost by 11.
Here's what people need to remember, okay? In New Hampshire, Democrats and undecided
voters could actually vote in the GOP primary as long as they, what, change their registration like
a couple of days before. If you want a perfect example of this, guys, here's two clips from both,
from mainstream media outlets, where you have literal Democrats and Biden voters who decided
to cross over and support Nikki Haley.
So even in an open primary system where Democrats could enter and where Democrats could try and make sure that she, you know, had some chance against Donald Trump,
she still lost by 11 points.
When it was a closed system like the GOP primary in Iowa, she got absolutely obliterated and blown out.
We've got two separate clips that we can show people.
Let's take a listen.
Nikki Haley.
And why did you vote for Nikki Haley? It's a vote against Trump. I think it
would be better to have her against Biden in the elections than it would be Trump and her.
Do you consider yourself generally independent, Republican, or Democrat?
Democrat. So when you undeclared, you voted for Nikki Haley. If it was Nikki Haley against Joe Biden in the general election, who are you voting for?
Christian, who did you vote for and why?
Yes.
So thank you.
I voted for Nikki Haley.
It was certainly a strategic vote.
I think the DNC is fairly resolute in their nomination for Joe Biden.
And while I wouldn't vote for her in a general election, particularly on our differences with climate change solution, a woman's right to bodily autonomy or incarceration
rates, I think a vote for Nikki Haley helps diminish Trump's influence in the RNC in their
nomination, but does also vote towards democracy. I watched that one live and I was like, I couldn't
even believe it. It's like, you have a 19, it was a 19 year old Dartmouth freshman who's literally
a Democrat. And he's like, I would not vote for her in the general it. It's like you have a 90 was a 19 year old Dartmouth freshman who's literally a Democrat.
And he's like, I would not vote for her in the general election.
There's no way.
But, you know, I came out to vote.
Also, if you're going to brag about your strategic vote, you don't admit it.
Yeah.
Well, no, it's not all right.
Strategy.
So naked.
I mean, and that's the thing, Emily, for me.
And all of this bears out in the exit polls.
Let's go and put the first one up here on the screen.
We can just look very, very clearly about what's happening.
So, for example, do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the election?
This was in the state of New Hampshire.
Yes, 49 percent.
No, 49 percent.
The reason that that yes number is so much higher in New Hampshire is now obvious.
It's because he had a huge independent and or Democratic crossover that came in.
And now, are you part of the MAGA movement?
32% said yes, 64% said no. Huge difference from the state of Iowa. But what stuck out to me,
Emily, is that Trump still won. Is that even amongst people, if you say Joe Biden legitimately
won the election, even with two-thirds of the people who say, I'm not part of the MAGA movement,
the guy still got 54% of the vote. I mean, these are all just, basically, the way I was looking at it is that, yeah, Nikki Haley ran up
massive numbers in all of these college-educated places. She won the most liberal place in the
state of New Hampshire, Hanover, where Dartmouth College is, maybe thanks to that 19-year-old,
he put her over the edge. But the whole point is that she was not able to even come close in any
of the rural, the suburban areas.
And as we continue to go through the exits, I mean, the divide on this is just absolutely massive.
Yeah, absolutely. And I bet that 19-year-old is a Ryan Grimm fan. That's my guess.
I don't know inside knowledge.
Yeah, I'm sure it tracks.
But anyway, so yes. And when people yesterday were looking at those exit polls as the numbers were rolling in before we had actual voting tabulations saying this looks really good for Nikki, I was thinking, actually, this looks really similar to what we saw in Iowa.
When you look at the breakdown of people who thought the election was stolen, whatever it is, even people who said no to that turned out for Donald Trump.
In Iowa, again, Donald Trump won the educated counties.
He won urban.
He won high income.
Now, the margins were different.
We talked about that last week, and it was really interesting.
But here's where Nikki Haley, these are CNN's exit polls.
This is super telling.
She won 70% of the registered undeclared voters, according to the exit polls.
She won only 27% of registered Republican voters. So 70% of those undeclared that you can register,
as Sagar was saying, as an undeclared voter. And that's a really, really big deal, obviously,
because it goes to show that among the sort of normal GOP primary voter, this is a state where people were putting
lots of money in. They were pumping these ideas about coming in and voting for people, even if
you're not a Republican voter. She was really, really banking on that. And even with those
millions and millions of dollars, it wasn't enough to get her within single digits because Donald
Trump is popular with Republican voters and the media doesn't
want to accept it. Donors don't want to accept it, but Donald Trump is popular with Republican voters
and that's that. Yeah. I mean, look, this again and again and again, every exit poll that we
assembled here, we just want to beat this into people's heads because it's very useful for not
just thinking about the GOP primary, but also in the future. And I don't want to put Trump
off the hook. There's actually a lot of trouble for him in some of these numbers. So let's,
for example, let's put this up there on the screen. Now you've got, do you think that Biden
legitimately won the election? Amongst Trump voters, 17% said yes, no is 80%. That actually
tracks with overall GOP polling. But look at the Haley number. Do you think that Biden legitimately
won in 2020? Amongst Haley voters, 83% said yes and no was 15%. The flag to me there is like, okay, well, you know, when you're going
to compete in a general election and most people, you know, it was some 60. So last time I checked,
say that Biden did legitimately win and you're losing an 83 to 15 split. Obviously it's not
going to be that high Ryan, whenever it does come to the general election. But if you're trailing that
hard in a category that's that important, you can see a 2022 stop the steal style revulsion
really keep people away from Trump. That's the only flag I want to put in there right now.
Yes, and Nikki Haley in her speech last night was not wrong. It's just that Republican voters
don't care. It's the wrong audience. She's correct. 2018, blue wave. 2020, Joe Biden. 2022, they expected that they would do much better
than they eventually did. And Trump kind of, it was, Democrats successfully made 2022 a referendum
on Trump. He also lost by 3 million votes in 2016. So every time he's been on the ballot,
Democrats have beaten him, except for because the Electoral
College, he won in 2016. But yeah, to your point, Republican voters do genuinely understand that.
A lot of them think, well, it's rigged. But even if they don't think it's rigged,
they don't care. This is the guy that they want to ride into battle.
Yeah. Well, I also have a point on that, Sagar. Go ahead, Emily, please.
Yeah. So actually actually one other interesting
point that Trump made is that he's, you know, beating Joe Biden in all these polls. Well,
this was a huge thing for Nikki Haley because there was polling that found her with the best
margins against Biden. And that was something that you were taking to the donor class and saying,
look at this, look at this. But again, Republican voters, to all of the points that you guys just made,
Donald Trump was wrong when he said that he's the one that does the best against Joe Biden.
There aren't a lot of polls that would put him ahead of DeSantis and Nikki Haley,
although that's all going to change now, but just in the past month or so, that was not true.
So again, Republican voters, though, to the point that everyone just made, they are not on board with saying it's what we want to have a Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar sort of puddle, pick a Nikki Haley candidate.
Republican voters are rejecting that model.
Absolutely. I mean, we see this in the ideology numbers, too.
We can put that up there just to give people an idea.
And, you know, another thing to keep in mind is that there was massive turnout last night.
Donald Trump won more New Hampshire votes than any other person in the history of the
New Hampshire primary, Democrat or Republican. They beat the turnout numbers by 50,000 from 2016,
just to show you the amount of energy. And yet in the composition of that electorate last night,
49% were registered Republicans, 47% were registered undeclared. Amongst the ideology,
same thing. It's very,
very different in Iowa. You've got very conservative for 24%, somewhat conservative 39%,
moderate 31%. It was, you know, 9% of that was moderate in the state of Iowa. Again,
just showing why Nikki Haley did overperform here. But when you're overperforming amongst
literal Democrats and people who are not Republicans, that's a very difficult problem
for whatever it
comes to the general election. And then the final exit poll, this is one where, you know, I could
spend all day on this thing. Let's put this up there because this is, this is it. Like this is
the, this is American politics in a nutshell. New Hampshire exit polls, never college, Trump,
54%. Some college, Trump, 25%. Bachelor's degree, Haley, plus 13. Advanced degree,
Haley, plus 26. So Nikki Haley doing well amongst college-educated voters and amongst people who've
got advanced degrees. But to echo what Crystal said last night, that's not really a winning
category whenever it comes to Republican politics. By the way, it's not a winning category for
Democrats either. You can just ask Elizabeth Warren how that worked out for her back in the 2020 primary. And that is the whole ballgame.
But the issue is that, look, for Republicans, and now let's put on our general election hat,
because basically, sure, we can twist in the wind for the next month if we want to. That's fine. We
can all pretend. Let's see what happens. And look, I'll give the other side of this. A month is a
long-ass time in American politics. Who the hell knows what could happen? There's all kinds of black swan events.
That's what basically what Nikki Haley is hoping for. You were going to say something. Go ahead.
Yeah, I was just going to jump in quickly to say then we go to the national poll. So if we
look at the RCP average, because you have South Carolina, then you have Nevada. Trump is very
popular in Nevada. And then on Super Tuesday, you have a lot of delegates, some like 1,200 delegates up for grabs. And that's going to look a lot more like the national polling.
And so Nikki Haley is spending a lot of money and still losing by double digits in a tiny state
with a really friendly, probably the most friendly Republican electorate, because you can have the
undeclared people come in and vote for her. This is over because in those national polls, she is down so much more.
Donald Trump is over 50% in those polls.
He's around 60 plus percent in national polls.
And so when you look at those people with advanced degrees, master's degrees, coming
in and saying Nikki Haley is a viable candidate for the next month, even though there are
black swan events, anything could happen.
There's a possibility that Trump goes to jail. So I get it.
But even if that happens, even if that happens, the wealthy college educated people are now going to spend a month and millions of dollars trying to push this candidate on Republican voters that
they have rejected by double digits in two early states, even one that's very friendly to her,
even where she's outspent everybody else. And now they're going to keep trying to push them on Republican voters. The media is going
to help them do it. It's just an absurd circus. Yeah, it is certainly. And like we said, look,
this is we've got a month until the South Carolina primary. It's actually a pretty decent amount of
time. And then that's when things really kick off, Ryan. So we've got South Carolina that we
have Super Tuesday in Florida. And that's like really when the total bow will be tied. I'm
curious, you know, if you guys think do you think she'll drop before South Carolina? Like maybe the day before or something
like that, if the polling position, if the, you know, the black swan event or whatever doesn't
happen, Ryan, you first. And then you could certainly imagine that happening because who
wants to lose by 40 in your home state? Right. It's just brutal. It's horrible. Right. But yes,
you know, if you stick around for three, four weeks and something happens, then she's kind of the frontrunner, fending off everybody who jumps back in.
But absent that, why would you want to get waxed in your own home state?
Exactly.
Emily, what do you think?
You think she'll drop out before South Carolina or you think she'll stay in and then she'll lose there and then she'll drop out that night?
It just seems so brutal because her most – by the way, have you guys watched the evolution of her talking point? She's like, I've never lost
an election that I'm in. And now last night I picked up on this. It was, I've never lost an
election in South Carolina. So now I'm like, I don't know. That's a pretty good talking point.
I'm not sure I would want to let that one go if I were her, but you know, the ego can do a lot
of things to people's, to people's minds. What do you think?
We should get a clip of that. Yeah, I'm of two minds about this because I actually think right now there's a lot of cash to be won. And I say cash, not C-A-S-H, but C-A-C-H-E, because when
you stay in and become the single issue, never Trump candidate, you can do it like that. That
will make her a hero with the same people who put her
on the Boeing board. And that seems to be, to me, what she cares about, the sort of Tea Party era
chameleon who then became Trump's UN ambassador, was super Trumpy, is now back to be never Trumpy.
You can just win a lot of, you know, kind of accolades from the donor class and the media
by standing in and being the single issue, never Trump bulwark to, to use the phrase bulwark.
And so I'm of two minds.
Does she do that all the way to the bitter end and,
and be that person that the media goes to for the anti-Trump talking points,
be that person who can then be the sort of champion of the never Trump world
going forward. I don't know.
But I think there's something to
what Ryan said and what you said, Sagar. I agree. I mean, I have a hard time seeing somebody putting
themselves through that level of humiliation at the same time. If you're doing it for the
virtuous cause, then maybe that's the audience she really cares about now.
Exactly. Exactly right.
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Okay, let's move on to the Democrats. Let's take a little bit of a look at the results from last
night. Let's go and put this up there on the screen and let see, what were the actual results, folks? Okay, so Joe Biden,
it appears, won 51.5% of the vote. We've got Dean Phillips at 19.8%. The key thing here is
unprocessed write-ins. Some of those, Ryan, I think are going to go to Biden. Some could go to
the ceasefire. Then you've got other write-ins. I'm not really sure what that even means. They
didn't seem to tabulate it. Marianne Williamson coming in at 4.7%. So I'm going to go ahead and give the mea culpa. I was definitely
wrong about Dean. I thought he was going to overperform. I thought his name being on the
ballot would come out to 30. But you know what, guys? I mean, a lot of these voters, and I saw
some various interviews on MSNBC or CNN. I was switching through just to see what exactly some
of the live conversations with these Democrats were. In general, Ryan, a lot of them were people who were just normal Democrats and they're like,
hey, you know, I just came out. I like to vote. We take this very seriously in New Hampshire.
You know, it's like I teach one of them was a teacher. Like I teach my kids about civic
responsibility. And they were like, oh, cool. So why did you come out to vote? And she's like,
you know, I just like Biden came in, right. Biden is no big deal. It's like 7 p.m. or whatever. I was like, hey, you know,
that's actually a very sweet thing. It's very clear that New Hampshire to them, overwhelmingly,
the interviews that I saw on TV, but also Twitter, Michael Tracy, for example,
these people take this shit seriously. I mean, they really take it seriously, like coming out
to actually vote. I mean, how else in a, else in an uncompetitive, basically primary on both sides, you have record turnout by 50,000 some votes in the GOP primary, decent
amount of votes that were cast in the Democratic primary. So give us your Democratic primary take
from Hampshire last year. Right. And so, so far, and the New York Times breaks down the write-ins
as 6,000, at this point, 6,608 other write-ins. Yes.
And I would think almost all of those are ceasefire.
Okay.
Except.
When will we know that?
Do you know?
In the next day.
Like today, we should know today or tomorrow.
All right.
Which I had, you know, the organizers in the campaign were talking hundreds or maybe low
thousands.
So if they ended up over 6,000, that's a pretty significant kind of viral.
I mean, it beats Marianne Williamson.
That's pretty crazy.
It will.
It looks like they're going to beat Marianne Williamson, who only had 5,000 votes and just under 5%.
Right.
Then there's unprocessed write-ins, which they describe as just ones that haven't been counted yet.
Most of those are probably just based on the numbers.
If he got 50% of what's already been counted, you can imagine he's going to get at least 50% of these remaining unprocessed write-ins. But you could be looking at
10% of the electorate voting for ceasefire if this pans out the way it looks like it possibly
could, which is far and away more than people thought was remotely possible. But we'll see because
we're just looking at a black box. Ryan will be with me on the main show tomorrow,
and we'll talk about that just to see when we get the final number. Emily, what's your overall take
for the Democratic primary? I mean, it wasn't all that unexpected per se, but Biden did a lot better
than I thought it would. I think Crystal had him at 60. It looks like he'll come in around 51,
but we're not quite sure. He might end up at 60, actually, with the write-ins.
He might actually end up at 60, so she seems to be, like, dead on the money.
In that case, the polls are mostly correct, and overwhelming victory for him, even though he literally wasn't on the state.
So his write-in campaign seems to have worked.
You know, the voter suppression and all that weird campaign that we covered yesterday, all that seems to be okay.
And Dean, you know, only cracking 20%.
But, I mean, I guess you can look at it two ways.
20% is also not nothing. That's one fifth of the people who did come out to vote. He definitely
had the advantage of having his name on the ballot, but he only launched his campaign a
couple of weeks ago. So, you know, he's not dropping out of the race yet. So we'll see.
Before I play his reaction, what do you think? Yeah, no, I mean, I think that's true because
when you're running in New Hampshire, you lay the groundwork there for months and months and months. You know, Ron DeSantis on the ground in Iowa, he put all his eggs in the
Iowa basket. He was there for, you know, better part of a year. And when you're doing that,
typically, and you want to win a primary, you spend tons of time in there, you spend tons of
money there, but it's over months and months, not just over the short period. That said,
I was a little surprised that his number was that low.
I would have probably put it up five, 10 points higher, just in my guess, because there was
just New Hampshire voters, I think really were given the middle finger by the DNC.
And I expected some of that anger to be taken out by protest votes for Dean Phillips and Marianne.
I thought so too.
So I probably would have put them a little higher.
Yeah. You have more respect for So I probably would have put them a little higher. Yeah.
You have more respect for Democratic voters than they have for themselves.
That's true. Yeah, they're like, please stomp on me, stomp on me, please smack me again.
There's another word for that. I won't get into it. All right, let's go ahead and play
Dean Phillips and let's see what he had to say about the results last night.
Congratulations to President Biden, who absolutely won tonight, but by no means in a way
that a strong incumbent president should, but I respect him, he won. I wanna congratulate
former President Trump for winning tonight as well. But Nikki Haley just said she's been here
working for a year. Well, we've been at this for 10 weeks, my friends. We decided two weeks before the October 27 deadline to come up to Concord, bring a $1,000 check. I was 35 years
old or older, and I was born in the US, so we became a presidential candidate. We, and we just
earned 20% tonight, and no one knew who we were 10 weeks ago. Nobody. I know the exhausted majority of this country, center right and center left Americans,
I know they'd much rather see a Nikki Haley, Dean Phillips matchup this November,
and we're gonna try to get that done. All right, I mean, we're gonna get that done,
we'll see. Same thing, now he's gotta go to South Carolina. Anybody want to tell me how a young white guy fared in South Carolina last time, Ryan?
You know, a very similar political ideology to Mr. Phillips versus Joe Biden. How did that work out?
I mean, listen, I think he'll probably lose even bigger than Buttigieg did in that state.
And Buttigieg, the favorite story that I wrote of the entire cycle
was, you remember the fake? Yes, absolutely. He just lied about having some black support,
and I called them up, and they're like, for the Frederick Douglass plan, I don't endorse this,
and I don't endorse Pete Buttigieg. What is going on? It's like, well, how did my name get on there?
So maybe that's Dean's path in South Carolina, just to put some people's names down without asking them.
Pete Buttigieg told you he had a black friend,
and Ryan was like, I'm calling him.
Yeah, he called him.
Ryan was like, are you sure about that?
Yeah, 100% sure about that.
He's a candidate.
Yeah, not friends.
Unfortunately, by the way, we don't have any.
There's been no, Marianne has not, as far as we could find,
our team was not able to find any video or rally or anything from last night. But we did try, just for anybody who is wondering. The extreme blackout of the
primary on Democratic kind of aligned media, MSNBC and New York Times, I think, contributed to this.
There was a moment last night on MSNBC where Rachel Maddow was kind of announcing the results.
And she says, and she reads out the totals and for Ms. Williams reads her totals right it's
like that's Marianne right he's Marianne she literally didn't know her name and Ms. and Mr.
Phillips his name is Dean and she then congratulated herself for like getting getting their names right
this is like deeply smug like it looked like an act like you you know Marianne Williamson's name
she's best-selling author for decades like come on everybody in. You know Marianne Williamson's name. She's a best-selling author for decades.
Come on.
Everybody in western Massachusetts loves Marianne Williamson.
Also, am I the only one who thought Maddow looked like a Bond villain?
Can I say that?
Did you guys note that?
It was like an all-black turtleneck thing with a – it was an interesting look.
Is this where I come in as hall monitor?
Yeah.
And call you a misogynist?
Is that misogynist?
No, not at all.
She always looks like a Bond villain.
Most Bond villains are men anyway.
Yeah, there you go.
I'm giving her a compliment.
She'd be a great Bond villain.
She would be a good Bond villain.
In many ways, a villain here in the U.S.
All right, so let's wrap up our thoughts here for the primary.
I mean, look, we knew it was going to be over.
Any chance, I think, for Dean and all of them basically evaporated last night.
Andrew Yang, who's been a major Dean Phillips backer, he basically, I guess, both him and
Phillips, they intimated they're not dropping out.
Andrew Yang's like, we're continuing this because I don't want to watch Joe Biden's
concession speech.
But at the end of the day, I mean, this thing just looks locked in.
I mean, you know, in general, that's why I was trying to bring in some general election
polling in our previous block about the Republican results, because it just seems foolish to even pretend now at this point.
So what can we maybe gleam from this primary for the overall general election?
Biden clearly in a strong position with the Democratic base, at least whenever it comes to votes.
It doesn't necessarily match up with some of the polling.
It says a lot of people are disgusted with him, with his age, they're very disgruntled.
Many of them are still willing to, even in the Haley case, for example, if we sub her out for
Biden, I think the majority of the people who came out to vote for Nikki Haley last night did so
because her name was not Trump. Very, very similar, Emily, to the dynamic of Joe Biden in the 2020
election.
And it seems that force could not just be more potent, not just as potent as 2020, it actually be more potent.
So Biden may not be as weak position, you know, as we might have thought a year or so
ago.
What do you think?
Oh, that's an interesting point.
I actually hadn't thought about that.
I think there's probably truth there.
The other thing I would say is, you know, when we're looking at the general election
from primaries, I don't know.
I never know what to draw from it just because, to your point, one of the reasons I think Dean Phillips and probably Nikki Haley, too, I think this maybe applies to both of them, wants to stay in the race.
Is that in a black swan event with something unpredicted with Biden's health, or I shouldn't say unpredicted because a lot of people have made predictions about Joe Biden's health. But if something happens to Joe Biden, you sort of have
an heir apparent if as these states go on, Dean Phillips is able to rack up significant chunks
of the vote. And I think 20% in New Hampshire, I mean, to your point, it's not nothing.
And so if he keeps showing that he's someone that can get some
support, then maybe he's in a position if something happens to Biden. I don't know.
That's my guess as to why he stays in. That's one of the reasons I think Nikki Haley would want to
stay in. But it's just like, I have no idea what's going to happen between now and next November
in terms of the economy, in terms of what we're about to talk about next, which is Israel,
Ukraine, all of that. So it's just really hard because I think it's going to be a close election
either way. Exactly. Yeah. No, look, I don't think there's a slam dunk on either case. I still put it
at 50-50. I wouldn't even give the edge to either of them. I think that's too high for both of them,
frankly. I think that's, I mean, that's kind of how a lot of people feel. That's how a lot of
people feel about the election. But even though it's very common, everyone says, and including me, I'm like,
this is the election nobody wants. But listen, if they succeed in dragging these two people to the
ballot, most of us will come out to the polls and have to vote for one of them or for RFK if he's
managed to get himself on there as well, Ryan. And as I think New Hampshire and the Democratic
primary and all that can prove, you can be dissatisfied with somebody.
You cannot even like somebody.
Many people will come out to vote for party loyalty.
Yeah.
The idea that the election that everybody wants is Dean Phillips against Nikki Haley is kind of funny.
But also I think what that is actually expressing is this kind of aspiration that people are not as angry as they are and that the world is much calmer and chiller than it actually is. Because that's a world in which you could imagine a Dean
Phillips versus a Nikki Haley, where it's really hard to tell what they even necessarily disagree
about. But that's not the public that we have. That's not the world we have. And that's not the
world that has been kind of deliberately engineered by the people who are now frustrated that we don't have that peaceful world. Very true. Okay, I'm going to drop off now, and
the people who are watching this sequentially will see me in the Oscars block.
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The IDF killed at least 120 Palestinians overnight in Gaza as attacks there continued. That's
according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. Now, PLUS 972, an Israeli news organization,
is reporting, interestingly, Emily, that the Israeli intelligence is now using the Gaza Ministry of Health numbers in its own assessments.
Early on in the conflict, they apparently, according to 972, surveilled the Gaza Ministry of Health, which the BBC and others still refer to as, quote unquote, Hamas run, to try to figure out whether or not those casualty figures being produced were accurate or not.
They determined that they are accurate. figure out whether or not those casualty figures being produced were accurate or not. They
determined that they are accurate. And so now even Israeli intelligence is now using Ministry of
Health numbers. Now, all of this is coming as there has been reports of a two-month ceasefire
offered by Israel and rejected by Hamas. John Kirby was asked about this yesterday.
Let's play a little bit of sound from that.
Report that the Israelis have presented a new ceasefire,
a temporary ceasefire for a hostage deal,
a two-month pause to release all the hostages
and the buys of civilians and soldiers.
Can you confirm that?
Is the US engaged, as Brett's in the region right now, is he trying to actively drum up you confirm that? Is the U.S. engaged as Brett's in the region right now? Is
he trying to actively drum up support for that framework of deal? Yeah, I'm not able to confirm
those specific reports that you're talking about in the press. Brett is in the region.
He was in Cairo today, as a matter of fact, and he'll have other stops along the way. Certainly one of the things he's in the region talking about is the potential for another
hostage deal, which would require a humanitarian pause of some length to get that done. And that's
definitely on the agenda. He'll also be talking about a range of other issues, including humanitarian
assistance, including getting assessment of Israeli Defense Force operations and the protection
of civilian life.
I mean, there's a lot on his agenda.
But I can't confirm these reports that those are the parameters of a deal that's being
discussed.
The last thing I'll leave you with is that, as I've said before, the discussions are sober
and serious.
Again, I don't want to get ahead of where we are or give you, I can't give you odds
on if and when we'll be able to get there.
But the conversations are very sober and serious about trying to get another hostage deal in place.
Now, Emily, Israel has not publicly confirmed that they made this offer, though the reporting
strongly suggests that they did. Hamas has not publicly confirmed that they rejected the offer,
though the public reporting suggests that they did. What do you make of both the offer and
also then the rejection? Yeah, I mean, I don't know what the Biden administration strategy is
here. And I just don't have confidence in the Biden administration's strategy at all. I was
actually curious, Ryan, what you made of how John Kirby handled that question. Because when he said,
oh, I can't confirm that those are
the parameters of the deal, it sounded like he was saying those are the parameters of the deal.
What did you think about that? Yes. And the way that he finished it off by saying that the talks
are sober and serious around upcoming hostage release negotiations does suggest that these talks are in a pretty advanced stage.
I think one thing that is underlying all of these talks is how poorly the war is going
for Israel in particular. And we can put up this next element here, which is the
biggest example that we've seen. We covered this on the show yesterday. Three IDF soldiers were killed
in separate clashes, but 21 IDF soldiers were killed in a single incident. And I want to talk
about that incident real briefly before we get into some of the other elements in this block.
We now understand that, so this happened on the kind of the eastern end of the Gaza Strip,
only about 600 meters from a kibbutz that has been evacuated. The Israeli government has said
that the reason that they were doing a controlled demolition in this area is so that residents of
the Gaza envelope, and particularly that nearby kibbutz, could eventually return. In other words,
they're trying to destroy
the civilian infrastructure to create a buffer zone. Now, no buffer zone has been a line for
the Biden White House. I don't want to say red line because they don't seem to kind of enforce
any of their lines. But they have very publicly said that there can be no Gaza Strip territory that is, you know,
currently Palestinian territory that is turned over, that is lost to the Israeli government.
Separately, the Geneva Conventions, and one of the elements of the Geneva Conventions that Israel
itself has ratified, says you cannot kind of destroy civilian infrastructure in order to seize territory,
which this very specifically would be doing.
So this incident, which has become a massive scandal inside Israel,
we now understand was being performed in furtherance of what is objectively understood to be a war crime.
So we have also, don't we have some further elements, Ryan, that get to this
point just so that people can see what you're talking about here? Sure. Let's talk about some
of the other kind of things that have been emerging that continue to turn people against
this war. The attacks continue on Khan Yunus, which apparently is something like 500,000 plus people are now huddled in
Khan Yunus, one of the second largest city in Gaza, but a place that Israel told people
to flee for safety.
Let's play this clip here.
In the yard of Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunus, Gazans bury their dead on Monday as Israeli
warplanes drone overhead.
They're unable to reach the cemeteries.
Israeli tanks storming the main city in Gaza's south
have reached the gate of this and another hospital.
In the bloodiest fighting of the year so far,
Abdul Karim Ahmed says he went through this
at the Ashifa complex in Gaza City a few months ago,
where he also buried loved ones.
We're besieged from all sides.
We're reliving the same scenario again
and burying them in the yard of the Nasser Hospital.
There is no safe place, no way out.
Inside, the wounded, desperate and stricken
crowd the wards and corridors.
This is the only major medical complex accessible in Khan Yunus
and the largest still functioning
in Gaza.
Rabia Salim's injured family waited until morning for an ambulance.
My mother was alive and told me, don't worry, go grab the others.
But she's gone now, he says.
Another war crime allegation that has been breaking through, if we just run through this as well, into the Western
press has been the IDF desecration of cemeteries throughout Gaza. The Times of Israel here
reporting IDF said to heavily damage 16 Gaza cemeteries during military operations. There's
been a lot of reporting in the Israeli press on this, but CNN too witnessed this. The only way, except for that kind of one CNN reporter
who was able to get to a UAE-run kind of field hospital, has been through kind of embedding with
the IDF. And so you would expect that you're not going to get a whole lot of reporting about Israeli war crimes when you're embedding directly with the IDF.
However, listen to what CNN saw as they were rolling through with Israeli forces.
CNN witnessed firsthand the results of Israel's bulldozing of graveyards while embedded with Israeli forces last week.
The armored personnel carrier CNN was traveling in drove
right through this cemetery in Al-Buraij on a freshly bulldozed dirt road.
So we have 120 minimum Palestinian civilians killed. We have the desecration of these
cemeteries punching through into the Western press. We have the 21 IDF soldiers killed while trying to create a
buffer zone, which the United States has very explicitly said we do not approve of. And my
sense is that one of the reasons that there was this rejection of this initial offer is that
Hamas must feel that the war is not going very well for the IDF.
What's your read on it?
Yeah, I have exactly the same read on it.
And that's why I thought it was helpful to put all of those things,
or for everyone to see those things together.
Because when you think about that,
I have read or heard that a lot of those 21 IDF soldiers who were killed were reservists.
They have families, just an awful thing.
And so that question of, from the perspective of Israel, is everything that we are doing in this war, if they're thinking about it like that, is everything that they're doing making Israelis safer now and in the long term? Is this justice?
Is this making us safer? And when you look at all of that, it reminds me a lot of what we were
talking about with the Houthis last week, Ryan. The Houthis saying, basically, we're enjoying this,
you know, bring it on, escalate the war for all we care. We wouldn't mind if you escalated the war.
It's like that's not being factored into,
at least publicly, it doesn't seem, that that's being factored into the Israeli decision-making,
the strategy, because it's like they're prosecuting a war
where they expect Hamas at some point,
what to be the word they use is annihilated.
Well, Hamas, you can't annihilate Hamas like a traditional army. And listen, like I'm armchair quarterbacking this
from the United States and Israel knows that, but the strategy doesn't reflect it. It doesn't seem
to reflect it because if your goal in all of these, you know, bulldozing of cemeteries and,
you know, Hamas does embed itself within civilian
infrastructure, but of course Gaza is tiny and densely populated and all of that. But if your
goal is to annihilate Hamas, and these examples keep happening, it's going to get a lot harder,
I think, to continue selling this war, not just on the international stage, but even at home as your own soldiers are dying.
The further that it gets from October 7th and the sort of sense that this was a just response that's going to make us safer now and in the future, I think that case gets a lot, lot, lot harder to make.
The more you see Hamas sort of responding like the Houthis have, you've seen like the
leader of Hamas abroad say to the extent, he said something to the extent of like, this
is going great for us.
Like this is, you know, since October 7th, we've realized that we can get away with a
lot.
They're not a traditional military.
So it's not the same thing.
And I just don't understand.
I guess I understand, but I don't think it's going to be easy to sell this in the future.
Right.
And on the one hand, it's awfully cynical to me of Hamas leadership to refuse pauses
because of the extent of the suffering that the civilian
population is going through. But at the same time, just as there seems to be no coherent strategy
coming from Israel at this moment, there seems region-wide to be no coherent strategy coming
from the United States. There are reports now that the U.S. believes that there will be so much pressure
on shipping as a result of both the Houthi attacks and the U.S. response that it will
raise shipping costs for China. And then China will then exert its influence on Tehran, which
will then exert its influence on the Houthis and'll get the Houthis to stop firing missiles at ships,
which is, you know, most global strategies you talk to are like, that's absurd. Like,
A, China can't do that. B, China isn't going to do that because China is quite fine with us
creating this gigantic morass for ourselves. Separately, as even Voice of America, which is the kind of
U.S. military-run news outlet, reported that Houthis have been very clear that they will allow
Russian ships and Chinese ships and any other ships that are not associated with the U.S. or
Israeli effort in Gaza. They're letting those pass. And so the idea that you're going
to get China to jump in and bail us out of our own airstrikes in Yemen. And by the way,
we launched airstrikes yesterday on Somalia, claimed self-defense there, more airstrikes on
Yemen. We also launched airstrikes at the Iraq-Syria border.
And our own bombs were falling in Gaza. So if we creeped across that border,
that's five countries that we bombed in a single day, which has got to be approaching a record.
And it's leading to actual pushback in the United States Senate. Yesterday, there was a letter. We can put up this next element here from a bipartisan group of senators.
It's Mike Lee and Todd Young, the Republicans, and Chris Murphy and Tim Kaine, who are considered
to be very serious Democrats.
This is not the peacenik wing of the Democratic Party.
And they write, we believe that American participation in another war
in the Middle East cannot happen in the absence of authorization by Congress. Unless there is a need
to repel a sudden attack, the Constitution requires that the United States not engage in military
action absent a favorable vote of Congress. Does your administration believe there is legal rationale
for a president to unilaterally direct U.S.
military action to defend ships of foreign nations. So Emily, Todd Young and Mike Lee,
how much pull do they have in Republican quarters? Could we see
kind of a genuine bipartisan coalition coming together and pushing back here?
I think we'll see a genuine bipartisan
coalition, but I don't think it will matter because if you look at Senate leadership,
these are not people who care about these extremely serious questions about war powers.
And this coalition and everything that you just read that they said is absolutely accurate.
It's absurd that we are so numb to how these words are prosecuted at this point.
And Mike Lee and Todd Young are heavy hitters.
They actually are well-respected, well-liked, serious conservatives.
They're not McConnell lackeys, but they're also not considered media celebrities or anything like that.
They're not on Fox News every day.
That's all I'm trying to say.
They are serious people.
And that's what's really sad about this.
It doesn't matter.
Because as you know, Ryan, you've been covering this way longer than I have.
The blob always wins in these conversations about war powers.
So I'm glad to see a bipartisan coalition,
and I'm glad to see that it's not just sort of relegated to the fringes.
You know, Matt Gaetz, for example, speaking of the fringes,
like Matt Gaetz has actually been very good on this,
even in relation to Somalia, going back a long time.
And so to have someone like Mike Lee and Todd Young
making this case in the upper chamber
is important and it's great. I am just so thoroughly cynical about this making much
of a difference going forward. Right. And speaking of some of these atrocities breaking
through in the West, I wanted to close this segment with incredible reporting from I-24,
an independent news outlet in the UK, which is kind of set up
70 years ago or so as sort of a competitor to BBC. They had an I-24 cameraman in Gaza who
carries out a bunch of interviews. And let's roll this, and I can narrate this for some of the
people who aren't able to watch. Oh, correction, I will not be
narrating this because this is Assad. So let's roll this news clip from I-24.
As he moved forwards towards the combat zone, he noticed this group of men doing their utmost to
appear non-threatening, trying to proceed with care. They wanted to reach two
other family members and get them out of harm's way.
I have a brother and a sister who have 50 or 70 refugees in the second house.
They want to get us out of there, but my brother won't let them. We will go and get them, God willing. The interview complete, our cameraman walked away.
And then this happened.
The interviewee had been shot and fatally wounded.
You can see them place their flag on his chest.
As he was carried away, the white flag was turning red.
And so it's pretty self-explanatory if you could hear the narrator,
but you see a group of men who are waving a white flag,
trying to get from one part of
the area to another to help to escort out some of their other family members to safety. And then
out of nowhere, kind of shots ring out. And one of the men who was just being interviewed
appears to almost die instantly. And as they're carrying him away in this indelible image,
they place the white flag as something of a bandage on his chest. And you can see the blood
soaking through the white flag. His wife is not far away from him. And she, soon after this clip,
and she realizes what has happened to her husband
who was just trying to uh you know go go help some family members uh she uh you know you know
uh collapses into uh unimaginable grief and while this while that's happening shots continue to ring
out and you see all these children around these men who are kind of looking left and right, trying to find somewhere where they can go to hide, but it's not exactly clear
where they're getting shot from and where they can go. And all the while,
they're trying to find some way that they could get this man who's just been shot help. This comes, of course, just a few weeks after the IDF shot and killed
three escaped Israeli hostages who were waving a white flag. And so there doesn't seem to have been,
following that incident, any reflection whatsoever on how to respond to unarmed
civilians who are wearing white flags. The fact that this aired
in a Western country, in the UK, Emily, do you think that this type of incident has the potential
to break through? Or are the camps just so dug in at this point that defenders of Israel are
going to continue to see catastrophes like this as the equivalent of victims of an earthquake
or a hurricane? Can't really tell who's responsible.
And that was ITV, not I-24, right?
Oh, yeah. Did I say I-24? Sorry.
Yeah, ITV is British. Right. Yes.
Okay. So, yeah.
I-24, yeah. ITV. Sorry. Thank you.
Yeah. Yes. And so, again, that's where I do think these images are powerful in the Western press.
And I actually think, again, like I saw, I was watching a podcast interview that the foreign
leader of Hamas, who's sort of media facing, people have probably seen some of his interviews
that he's done, is talking, I think, just in the last couple of days about how they've been somewhat, what's the right word, surprised to see the reaction or the lack of
support, the support for Palestinians in the West, the lack of support for Israel in the West,
and that that's a good thing for Hamas. And you can see it sort of empowers Hamas.
And to that point, I'm not trying to say that that doesn't mean people should support Palestine.
What I am saying is that what he's talking about is how people are reacting, I think, exactly to clips like that.
It does. The one thing he's right about there is that does make that difficult for Israel.
And listen, I don't want Hamas to be in charge of Gaza.
I want to see Hamas
annihilated. The idea though, that Hamas is going to be annihilated. If you just do operations like
this enough, where you have people with white flags or you have, where people with white flags
get caught up, or you have civilian infrastructure, because Hamas has some hundreds of miles now through reporting,
we know hundreds of miles of tunnel,
you're not going to annihilate Hamas.
And then what next?
Say that's, we've talked about this, right?
And say that is accomplished.
If you annihilate Hamas,
what's going to come into that vacuum that is better than Hamas?
If not, the United States,
who's providing essential support
in this war, believes in a two-state solution. Netanyahu and the people that Netanyahu is
answering to in his coalition do not believe in a two-state solution. So actually, none of this
makes sense for the future. The strategy, the more of these clips are played in the midst of
this strategy, I think the more difficult it does get for Israel.
And that's the bottom line.
Like, I actually think some of these soldiers are, you know, I don't want to minimize the difficulty of their situation.
And I don't know.
But this looks horrific.
I mean, it looks horrific and likely is horrific.
And so I think the longer this goes on without a really clear strategy,
I think it actually also will get more difficult to continue selling to the Israeli public as a whole.
Because even far right people, and I say that they would obviously want an escalation in the war,
but even some of the people on the far right in Israel aren't happy with what the end goal seems to be.
Yep. No, no doubt about that.
Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast, Hell and Gone, I've learned one thing.
No town is too small for murder.
I'm Katherine Townsend.
I've received hundreds of messages from people across
the country begging for help with unsolved murders. I was calling about the murder of my
husband at the cold case. They've never found her and it haunts me to this day. The murderer is still
out there. Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line, I dig into a new case, bringing the skills I've
learned as a journalist and private investigator to ask the questions no one else is asking.
Police really didn't care to even try.
She was still somebody's mother.
She was still somebody's daughter.
She was still somebody's sister.
There's so many questions that we've never gotten any kind of answers for.
If you have a case you'd like me to look into,
call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145.
Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The summer of 1993 was one of the best of my life.
I'm journalist Jeff Perlman, and this is Rick Jervis.
We were interns at the Nashville Tennessean, but the most unforgettable part?
Our roommate, Reggie Payne,
from Oakland, sports editor and aspiring rapper. And his stage name? Sexy Sweat. In 2020,
I had a simple idea. Let's find Reggie. We searched everywhere, but Reggie was gone.
In February 2020, Reggie was having a diabetic episode.
His mom called 911.
Police cuffed him face down.
He slipped into a coma and died.
I'm like thanking you.
But then I see my son's not moving.
No headlines, no outrage, just silence.
So we started digging and uncovered city officials bent on protecting their own. Listen to Finding Sexy Sweat coming June 19th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts. I know a lot of cops and they get asked all the time,
have you ever had to shoot your gun? Sometimes the answer is yes, But there's a company dedicated to a future where the answer will always be no.
Across the country, cops called this taser the revolution.
But not everyone was convinced it was that simple.
Cops believed everything that taser told them.
From Lava for Good and the team that brought you Bone Valley comes a story about what happened when a multi-billion dollar company dedicated itself to one visionary mission. This is Absolute Season One, Taser Incorporated.
I get right back there and it's bad. It's really, really, really bad.
Listen to new episodes of Absolute Season One, Taser Incorporated, on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Binge episodes 1, 2, and 3 on May 21st,
and episodes 4, 5, and 6 on June 4th. Ad-free at Lava for Good Plus on Apple Podcasts.
Emily, you've got some updates on the border situation and the border negotiations, right?
Yeah, absolutely. So the Supreme Court ruled temporarily, by the way, that's an important
part of this. They ruled temporarily to allow the federal government to remove razor wire
on the border wall that Texas, the government of Texas, put there.
And the government of Texas argued that, I'm sorry, the federal government argued that the
wire illegally prevented them from managing the border. And we talked last week, Ryan, about
the situation with migrants who had drowned. And there was a big back and forth about the razor wire.
There was a big back and forth
about how Texas is stepping in
to what they see as a power vacuum on the border.
The federal government sort of allowing
mass asylum claims to be made.
No remain in Mexico
and people crossing the Rio Grande
or crossing in various ways.
And Texas wants to sort of step into that power vacuum.
But it's created, I think, really legitimate problems.
I think Texas even has to concede that these are really legitimate problems.
So it's a 5-4 ruling.
Amy Coney Barrett and John Roberts are part of the five.
And again, this is temporary. This is still being considered
in the Fifth Circuit. So there will be more decisions on this, but the Supreme Court stepped
in and said temporarily the federal government can cut this razor wire, essentially. Tucker
Carlson, we have some reaction from him. This is what Tucker tweeted. He said, so it's unanimous.
Everyone in power from the White House
to the hedge fund managers
to the Supreme Court of the United States
has decided to destroy the country
by allowing it to be invaded.
That leaves the population to defend itself.
Where are the men of Texas?
Why aren't they protecting their state and the nation?
Chip Roy, obviously a big Freedom Caucus guy,
he called on Texas officials
to just completely ignore
the ruling. He said, quote, they have a duty under the Constitution and every other norm
of leadership of any sovereign state to protect your citizens, period, full stop. There is no
exception to that. And if the Supreme Court wants to ignore that truth, which a slim majority did,
Texas still had the duty, Texas leaders still have the duty, to defend their people. Now, let's put this Politico headline
up on the screen. This comes as a bipartisan border deal is being considered, and Chris Murphy
signaled to Politico that the talks were, quote, largely done. What we know from that is you have
Chris Murphy, Lankford, Sinema, some of these very leadership, center right, center left people in the Senate coming together and trying to get a border package done. restricting asylum. And they've also talked about restricting parole, which according to Politico is one of the hot items is like, what are the presidential parole authorities that's being
debated? Chris Murphy says they've kind of come together on that question, but we have absolutely
no idea what this, you know, it reminds me of what we talked about with Sam Kodalte last week, Ryan, the lobbying. We did a segment about how the wealthiest caucuses
and the wealthiest districts are the ones
that are part of the bipartisan caucuses
and the people who stress cooperation
and all of that and get wonderful media treatment.
We actually have no idea what these centrists,
Kyrsten Sinema, Lankford, Chris Murphy, we have no idea what these centrists, Kyrsten Sinema, Lankford,
Chris Murphy, we have no idea what they're doing. So all of this could mean so many different things. And if it's just spending more to have more fun little drones on the border,
that's not going to do a lot. If there are serious changes to asylum policy,
maybe that would do more. We have no idea at this point, and I don't think I have any
trust in them that they're going to do something significant because neither side wants to do
something significant. And what's going to happen, and has been happening, Ryan, I'll just
recall this really brief story. Because of how Byzantine this bureaucracy at the border is,
human lives are getting caught up in it. And the way that this has been kicked to the courts
because Congress is too afraid to act,
because the president has taken authorities
that I think are questionable.
I'm not talking about the cutting the razor wire.
I think actually there's a legitimate dispute
of constitutional powers there.
And I understand what Chip Roy is saying
because Texas's citizens actually are really in the crosshairs of this. So it makes sense. At the same time,
Texas has a federal border. So there's a very substantive and interesting kind of constitutional
conversation happening on that level. But this is just briefly, I've told you about this, Ryan,
when Title 42 was being kicked
back and forth in the courts, it was such a sad and awful situation. Um, and I actually made a
border trip when that was happening. You can talk to people who were caught up in that. And I talked
to a kid, uh, whose name was Austin. He's from Cuba. He had come up through Venezuela or up
through, uh, Panama, Darien gap, done the whole thing, paid some stupid amount of money for someone from Cuba,
like $11,000. He crossed because he thought Cubans were still being let in because of where Title 42
was in the courts. He got sent back because it was the day that that had changed. And then he
tried to cross again because Title 42 was changing at this point in time, day to day.
He got sent back again. There's so much confusion and cartels are preying on the confusion.
And that's, I think, the real sad thing about what's happening in the court system right now.
Ryan, I've just talked way too long. What did you make of this decision from Monday?
I don't.
So the Supreme Court is saying that Texas is overstepping its authority here, but it's kind of not weighing in all the way.
Congress hasn't touched this for decades at this point.
I'm curious how serious you think these negotiations are, because
while the White House seems to have a significant amount of incentive to kind of go against its base
and go against what it has said its values are on immigration for a very long time and cut a deal
for political reasons in the midst of a presidential campaign. On the flip side, it feels like Republicans don't have
any incentive at all, politically at least, to reach a deal. And so maybe some senators
can come together with some Democratic senators. But over on the House side, and from Trump
himself, it feels like letting Biden have a win on the border is something that they don't have
any intention
of doing. You're hearing a lot of rhetoric from House Republicans saying, unless it's our full
100% of our bill, H.R. 2, we're not doing anything and we're going to wait until we're in power,
which reminds me of how Democrats have always said that they're going to do all of these things
one day when they're in power. They're going to codify Roe v. Wade. They're going to,
they're going to, you know, all of these promises that they've made for decades,
eventually they're going to do it. So just support Democrats now and then don't fight us on these
issues. And then eventually when we get enough power, then we will do the things we're promising.
What's your sense of how serious we should take House Republicans when it comes to the ability
to reach a deal with Biden on the border.
Yeah, you're exactly right.
And it actually reminds me a lot of repeal and replace.
Right. There you go.
We will repeal and replace.
Vote us in and we'll do it.
Yeah.
We'll do it 50 times when they have no power,
but zero times when they can actually do it.
And again, like actually from a political perspective,
I completely understand
the Freedom Caucus block and not just the anti-McCarthy block, but like the entire Freedom
Caucus holding fast to H.R. 2 because H.R. 2 was a bill that 10 years ago I think would have been
non-controversial because given the level of problems that there is that exist. And the New
York Times had an interesting story just this week actually about how what's the real shift
in immigration has been on the
Democratic side. Looking at polling data, Democrats have gotten much, much more favorable to lenient
immigration policies, and Republicans have basically stayed the same. And that's where I
think I understand holding fast to H.R. 2. It's not realistic. Democrats are not coming back to
the table on H.R. 2. But I do think there's an unreasonableness. I don't think, I don't believe
that there's going to be a policy put forward. And I could be wrong because we are told,
according to Politico, that asylum is on the table. So I could be wrong and they could have
some really substantive changes to asylum policy there. But that's what I just haven't seen a will
to do. And that's, to me, it's not even
a partisan thing. To me, it's just our assigned policies are so inhumane because they give so
many people false hope. They're really good for the cartels. And like they just, whether you think
they should be way more liberal or way more restrictive, what they really need to be is clear. And I don't think either side has the ability
to come to a consensus on clarity about asylum.
And unless we have clarity about asylum,
we can have all the razor wire.
Texas can put all the razor wire that it wants up.
More people are still going to be hurt.
More people are going to cross.
The only interesting thing I'll add is Todd Bensman,
who's been on the show before, reported at the New York Post that he had a source who shared
numbers with him showing that crossings have dipped significantly in the last couple of weeks.
And the theory is that Biden has struck a deal with AMLO and with Mexico. According to Todd's sources, there's been a lot more enforcement within Mexico.
They've really bulked up their enforcement.
And the idea is that that's a Biden-era sort of deal for election purposes.
If that's true, and if Mexico is enforcing their own policies and is being more careful
about, for example, the train that has basically
been very loosely policed, the trains that come up carrying migrants. That's good because people
need to stop taking these awful trips to the Darien Gaps where they're dying, where people
are being raped in mass. It's horrific. I don't know, Ryan. I don't know. I think what we need
is clarity, and I don't think we're going to get any clarity. So I'm pretty cynical on that.
Yeah, cynicism on this issue sounds about right at this point, definitely from a political perspective.
Before we bring Sagar back for a very exciting debate over Barbie and the Oscars, a clarification slash possible correction, we'll see. So earlier in the show,
I had said that we would know by tonight or tomorrow, you know, a lot of who these remaining
write-in votes are for. Cenk Uygur told Crystal, apparently, that he's now being told that they're
not going to release these numbers. There was pressure from Democratic Majority for
Israel, a super PAC, on the New Hampshire Secretary of State not to release the number of people who
wrote in ceasefire. The word from the New Hampshire Secretary of State, however, earlier this week,
was that they would be releasing these figures. The organizers behind that campaign believe that
the law requires
them to release this, but it feels like it is, at this point, an open question, good reason to
stick around and check the show out tomorrow morning. But without any further ado, we've got
to get to Sagar's thoughts on Barbie. Stick around for that. Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast, Hell and Gone,
I've learned one thing. No town is too small for murder. I'm Katherine Townsend. I've received
hundreds of messages from people across the country begging for help with unsolved murders.
I was calling about the murder of my husband at the cold case. I've never found her,
and it haunts me to this day. The murderer is still out there. Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line, I dig into a new case,
bringing the skills I've learned as a journalist and private investigator
to ask the questions no one else is asking. She was still somebody's daughter. She was still somebody's sister. There's so many questions that we've never got any kind of answers for.
If you have a case you'd like me to look into,
call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145.
Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The summer of 1993 was one of the best of my life. I'm journalist Jeff Perlman, and this is Rick Jervis. or wherever you get your podcasts. name? Sexy Sweat. In 2020, I had a simple idea. Let's find Reggie. We searched everywhere, but
Reggie was gone. In February 2020, Reggie was having a diabetic episode. His mom called 911.
Police cuffed him face down. He slipped into a coma and died. I'm like thanking you. But then I see my son's not moving. No headlines, no outrage,
just silence. So we started digging and uncovered city officials bent on protecting their own.
Listen to Finding Sexy Sweat coming June 19th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts. Cops called this taser the revolution. But not everyone was convinced it was that simple.
Cops believed everything that taser told them.
From Lava for Good and the team that brought you Bone Valley
comes a story about what happened when a multi-billion dollar company
dedicated itself to one visionary mission.
This is Absolute Season 1.
Taser Incorporated.
I get right back there and
it's bad. It's really,
really, really
bad. Listen to new
episodes of Absolute Season 1
Taser Incorporated on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Binge episodes 1, 2, and 3 on May
21st and episodes 4, 5, and
6 on June 4th.
Ad-free at Lava for Good Plus on Apple Podcasts.
Okay, at the same time, the actual election analysis that everybody has been waiting for,
the Oscars election.
We got the official nominations yesterday, and there is absolute outrage that Barbie, the major, I guess, blockbuster event of the last year really kind of like the person who got the movie off the ground, as well as the lead actress,
did not receive nominations. But they did get a lot of others. And let's put that up there on
the screen, thanks to our graphics team for putting this together. Oscar nominations. So
Barbie has been nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, I want to return to that one,
for America Ferrera, Best Supporting Actor, Ryan Gosling. Best adaptive screenplay, original song, or two original songs actually.
Costume design and production design. Okay, this, like I said, has caused absolute outrage from a
lot of people online, including one of the stars of the movie, Ryan Gosling, who is very upset that
he was nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but then
Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig were spurned. Let's go and put his statement. This is what he has to
say up here. He says, I am extremely honored to be nominated by my colleagues along such remarkable
artists, et cetera, et cetera, but there is no Ken without Barbie. There is no Barbie movie without
Greta Gerwig or Margot Robbie, the two people most responsible
for this history-making, globally celebrated film.
No recognition would be possible for anyone on the film without their talent, their grit,
and their genius.
To say that I am disappointed that they are not nominated in their respective categories
would be an understatement.
Against all the odds, with nothing but a couple of soulless, scantily clad, and thankfully
crotchless dolls, they made us laugh. They broke our hearts. They pushed the culture,
and they made history. Their work should be recognized along with the other very deserving
nominees. Man, it's almost like he's talking about the freaking Nobel Prize or something,
not the Oscars. Emily, I definitely wanted to talk about this with you. This is being described
as a feminist snub. It's a major snub of Greta Gerwig.
And they're like, oh my gosh, what if a man is the only person to actually win an Oscar out of the Barbie movie?
Some people have said that would be objectively hilarious.
But I'm curious for your take, and then Ryan and I will give ours.
Well, thank you for letting the ladies go first.
Yes, of course.
The ladies go first in this.
Very gentlemanly of your chivalry.
Not dead.
But, so, there's a lot to make of this, and I'm glad that we're talking about it,
because as, you know, one of, I think Sagar and I are probably on the same page
about all of the virtues or the lack of virtues of contemporary feminism,
and even so, I actually really enjoyed the Barbie movie.
I wrote a piece about it for The Federalist
saying that it was in a way reminiscent,
and I don't think intentionally,
I think this was probably its biggest flaw,
it was reminiscent of the sort of Camille Paglia take
on sex and gender,
this sort of biological essentialism.
Men and women are different,
and that's what most of the jokes in Barbie are going for.
Now, that said, that's a really low bar for good culture
is recognizing the differences between men and women
and making jokes about it.
So I think the script was a little incoherent.
But I thought Greta Gerwig did a good job.
I think she did a best director level job.
And I thought Margot Robbie was fantastic.
So I don't want to steal your point,
but we very much agree.
It's not so much no woman was nominated
because America Ferrera got the supporting nod.
It really should have been Margot Robbie.
And I think Greta Gerwig deserved to be up there.
They had her for costume.
Well, they have Barbie for costume production
and best picture.
So there's a lot of Greta Gerwig, obviously that goes into all of those things in a way she's very much nominated just not
in the director category uh and i actually think that's what barbie was great at i thought the
design uh the aesthetically it actually was really innovative and interesting even if the script
didn't match that level of quality and even if and this is a good way to toss it back to you
saga some of the acting and some of the writing, and I'm specifically talking about the part written for America Ferrera, is absolutely insufferable in Barbie.
Right, and that is where I'm getting really annoyed here because people are like, oh, snub, all the women.
I'm like, guys, America Ferrera got nominated.
The scandal is that America Ferrera is the worst part of the movie.
Ryan, you and I were talking about this.
She's the one who gives the annoying speech about how difficult it is to be a mom or whatever.
And it's just like the most eye-rolling part.
I was in the most liberal of all theaters.
And even there, people were like, come on, man.
Went a little long.
There were some really funny points in that speech, but it was a little bit.
I had a good time.
I enjoyed the movie.
And I think largely it was because it was a social experience and I was around a lot of other people who were having, you know, people were dressed up and we were laughing. It's kind of like going to the Taylor Swift movie. Is it a good movie? Obviously no. But, you know, when you see like nine-year-olds like having the time of their lives, you cannot help but imbibe like some of the, some of that joy right on yourself. So I think that was part of my experience as a movie.
You liked the movie because it was about Ken. Yeah, that's right. Exactly. I liked it because it was about using TRT in order to get the best physique possible.
But my point is just that—
He's looking right into the sun every morning in Barbie Land.
Yeah.
Actually, Ken is living the health lifestyle that I want to live.
But let's belie all that.
And let's just actually think about this.
First of all, what people many misunderstand about the categories is that for best picture, all members of the academy
get to vote on best picture for the director category. It's all the directors who are in the
academy. It's not everybody else. So it's not a surprise then that they elevate like, you know,
like a tour movies, like genuine cinema. And if we're going to put it on that category, this is
the other thing. Barbie made $1.4 billion.
It's not like you don't need the best director stamp, Greta Gerwig.
You're fine.
But let's also look at some of her past movies.
Lady Bird is a way better movie.
It's actually a very good movie.
Little Women, even.
Actually, Sleeper.
Actually, that was a good movie, once again.
And it's one of those where people don't pay attention to the fact that the Academy is not meant to just, you know, rubber stamp blockbusters.
You know, first of all, the Oscars don't even matter.
So, like, to a certain point, this is all irrelevant. But in terms of this trying to be a cultural touchstone and all that, we do not look at Iron Man and be like, man, this is the best film ever made.
We're like, yeah, that movie made a ton of money.
Yeah, it was good.
It was, you know, fun.
And then we all just move on with our lives.
And we're not like, oh, my God, what a God, what a scandal that it wasn't nominated or whatever. And then if we're going to think in the best
director category, and Ryan, this is where I'm curious for what you think. To me, if we're going
to look at achievement and all that, what is more impressive? You're going to get one of the most
internationally recognized IPs, turn it into a good script, definitely difficult. Or you're going
to adapt, frankly, not a very good book, which is American Prometheus, the actual biography of J. Robert Oppenheimer, turn it into a three-hour biopic, and let's be honest, where it drags a lot in the middle, and turn it into a nearly billion-dollar blockbuster that people dress up for and turn into an event movie.
That's also historically important.
That is a ten times more impressive achievement to me.
Barbie would have been a hit even if it was bad. It just happened to be good. Oppenheimer, I mean, I think only
Nolan could have done something like that. Ryan, what do you think? To me, the Oscars ought to take
into consideration how difficult it is to move from your concept to a great film. Dustin Hoffman
getting an Oscar for Rain Man, not that impressive. It's a great film. Dustin Hoffman getting an Oscar for Rain Man,
not that impressive.
He's just like, it's a great performance,
but it was also signed, sealed, and delivered for an Oscar.
He's just going for it.
Whereas they took a ridiculous premise,
like we're going to just take a commercial
about kids' toys and turn it into a film and try to make a whole bunch
of money on it. And then she somehow managed to make an actually tremendous film. So I think that
she got snubbed because of the giant gap between those two things. But what if she gets Best
Picture? Best Picture is still in the treatment, guys. Margot Robbie is a freaking producer on the
movie. So is Greta Gerwig. By the way, the movie made $1.4 billion.
These people are going to be just fine.
One reason I'm okay with her getting snubbed, though, is because she really flopped the landing with this, like, reification of neoliberalism at the very end with this, you are enough.
Oh, yeah.
Nobody's enough.
You need community.
You need socialization.
You need friends.
You need family.
Like, you need loved ones around you. Nobody is enough. You need community. You need socialization. You need friends. You need family. Like, you need loved ones around you. Nobody is enough. And the idea that you would try to tell
a whole bunch of kids that they don't need anything other than themselves, I thought was
just a horrific message at the end. So my politics say, you know what? She can go ahead and suffer
and not get the best director. Okay. And then, okay, let's push the red button. Ken is dead. Ryan Gosling does
deliver the most range of acting in the movie. I mean, yeah, he's the best supporting character,
but he's the one who's like events are happening to him. And then he has, he is the one most
profoundly changed by his interaction with the real world coming back. And then him, you know,
versus Barbie, the Barbies fight back. By the way, spoiler alert for all of this for everybody who
has not yet seen the film, but it's been several months, so I don't feel bad about it. And then, you know,
you know, they reach the equilibrium or whatever. Margot Robbie is like the vehicle through which
Ken has this like deeply emotional journey and all the other Kens within it. Sure, you know,
she definitely delivers a great performance and it's fun. Like, don't get me wrong. But that's
why if you were to think just purely in terms of acting
chops, not in terms of culture and all that, I think Gosling definitely did do a better job as
an actor or at least brought more to the role. That doesn't belie the production. The fact that
Margot Robbie, I think she called Greta Gerwig. She's the one who got the script greenlit. She
helped with all that. And that's why- She'll share in that Oscar, right, for the script.
She will share in that Oscar for the best picture and all that. So anyway,
what do you think, Emily? Yeah, no, I, I agree. Um, I would, I would add to that. It's not just
that Ryan Gosling, uh, it's that the, the role, this is to the point Ryan was making about Rain
Man, uh, the role for Ryan Gosling was always going to be harder um for him like it was just the way the script was written uh the way that
it turned out it's just that was a harder role to play and he did a great job so while I think
Margot Robbie did a great job I just think Gosling did a great job in a harder role and on top of
that I was thinking as we were talking how funny it must have been when the academy got the
nominations back and looked at this it was like holy right they were like oh no like they you
again like this stuff is is engineered to a point uh but it's still voted on and just imagine them
getting this back and looking at the barbie nominations and realizing it was just gosling for uh i mean that's actually and gerwig got snubbed you want to know the real scandal
maestro got nominated for best picture what the hell are we doing here all right we all like that
is that movie is a travesty it's what happens when somebody gets way too famous bradley cooper
and then people start writing way too big checks and And we're all just like, oh, my gosh, what an auteur film.
That's a good example of a kind of movie that's just made for Oscars.
No, literally.
Yeah.
I mean, I think it was made for that and also for Bradley Cooper's ego.
And we're like, hey, man, can you do like Silver Linings Playbook again?
Just like something that was actually good and hasn't been for a long time.
All right.
So I think this brings our discussion on the whole Oscars, what, brouhaha to a close.
It will not stop.
Can we imagine, the acceptance speeches are gonna be so insufferable.
If Ryan Gosling wins, the amount of Greta, this run is really yours, or some grandstanding
and all that, if this is what happens before, just imagine the night of. He's not going to win.
You don't think he's going to win? I don't think he'll win.
Who else is nominated? So we've got- And listen-
Yeah, go ahead. Well, the Gerwig stuff is interesting in the
extent that the Academy has also been trying to bring those quality blockbusters back in. So
maybe not nominating the dumbest Marvel movie or whatever,
but also, I mean, there are some good Marvel movies, obviously. Black Panther was competitive
at the Oscars, but they're saying we were swinging way too far in the direction. Like
remember when they gave the artist best picture, when someone reminded me yesterday when Trump
went berserk because Parasite won. He just had that hilarious quote about it. And so they've
been trying to actually reward movies that people are watching and enjoying.
And so that's part of what's interesting about this too.
At the same time,
Gosling's up against a lot of good performances
this year, and I don't think he's
quite going to cut it. I could be wrong.
I could be wrong. I'm not going to...
Here's what I got in front of me. Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction.
I haven't seen American Fiction. Robert De Niro for
Killers of the Flower Moon. He was incredible in Killers
of the Flower Moon. Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
That's tough.
I thought he gave a good performance,
but honestly, I thought his entire arc of the film is bad.
So it's like, yeah,
but that part of the script for me drags tremendously.
We've got Ryan Gosling.
But they're going to love Oppenheimer this year.
What's up?
The Academy's going to love Oppenheimer.
I agree.
The Academy's going to love Oppenheimer.
I agree.
Ryan Gosling for Barbie,
and then Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things.
Haven't seen Poor Things.
Our producer Griffin says it's an incredible, incredible movie.
It's on my list.
I'm definitely going to go and watch it before the Oscar season.
Anyway, I think that brings us to a close.
Guys, thank you for letting me hang out and crash your show.
Always welcome.
You're welcome.
I hope everybody enjoyed it.
We've got the discount going on if you can help support all of us.
And I look forward to doing this again soon.
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