Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 3/14/26: TRUMP KNOWS HE’S DEFEATED! Begs Other Countries to Rescue US

Episode Date: March 14, 2026

Krystal and Trita discuss Trump knows he is defeated begging other countries to rescue the US in the Iran war.    To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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What? You probably won't believe it either. Was this before he wrote his stories? It must have been. Okay, I don't think that's true. I'm telling you. I was a spy. Listen to the secret world of Roll Dahl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, guys. So earlier today, we talked about how Trump had announced the bombing of Karg Island in Iran, which is very important to their oil exporting. And we're privileged now to be joined by Dr. Trita Parsi. He is the executive vice president over at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Politics. To talk about that and some other significant developments that have been unfolding in the Iran. war as well. Great to see you, doctor. Good to see you again. Yeah, of course. So let's go ahead and put this Trump truth up on the screen just to get the exact words from the president himself. He says moments

ago, my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's crown jewel Kark Island. Our weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the world has ever known. but for reasons of decency, I've chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on the island. However, should Iran or anyone else do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz? I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my first term and currently, I rebuilt our military into the most lethal, powerful, and effective force by far anywhere in the world. Iran has no ability to defend anything we want to attack.

There's nothing they can do about it. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States. of America, the Middle East, or for that matter, the world. So this was the announcement we received yesterday evening. And sure enough, you know, reporting is that Carg Island was hit, that it was the military infrastructure, that the oil infrastructure remains intact. Your reaction to these latest developments. I think, frankly, we're further seeing him Trump losing control over this.

Iran apparently seems to have even escalation control at this point because they struck at all facilities, not military facilities. facilities, oil facilities in UAE in response to this. I think we have now a situation in which Trump actually is recognizing that the Iranians have this leverage over the Strait of Hormos, over oil, and he doesn't really have what it takes to go all the way to attack these things because he is now finally recognizing that that would be absolutely suicidal. Even if he were to strike at all facilities at that island. It does not mean that the Iranians will open up the strait or that the Iranians will not be able to export their own oil. During the Iraq-Iran war, that island was

struck constantly by the Iraqis. The Iranians found various workarounds. Obviously, it's very bad for I'm not trying to downplay it. But they have workarounds. They put those in place back then. I would suspect that they're even more sophisticated at this point compared to them, whereas they now have really the control over the Strait of Hormuz. They're the ones who decide which ships go in and which ships don't. And just to see as the evidence of that is that India is negotiating itself with Iran for free passage. And so is France and Italy. They didn't go to Trump to negotiate free passage.

They went to Iran because it's the Iranians that are in control. And now for the first time in a very long time, the Iranians actually have leverage. They have significant leverage. When they didn't have leverage and in the negotiations, they gave concessions. It didn't get them anything. It got them this war. Now they have leverage. I don't find it very likely that they will give it up without getting major concessions in return. And there's, of course, the risk that the Iranians will do the same mistake as the Trump administration did, which is to overplay their hands.

Let me get your reaction to this additional truth social that came from the president. Let me just pull this one fully up on the screen. I'm sorry. There we go. Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran's attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending warships in conjunction with the United States of America to keep the street open and safe. We've already destroyed 100 percent of Iran's military capability, but it's easy for them to send a drone or to drop a mine or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along or in this waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.

Hopefully, China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ship. to the area so the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally get decapitated. In the meantime, the U.S. will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships out of the water one way or the other. We will soon get the Hormuz straight, open, safe, and free. So they're hoping that China will join this fight alongside of us to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Look, every sentence there contradicts the next. First declaring complete victory. saying that these countries will and then later on saying hopefully these countries will join in this effort.

You're seeing the words of a man who actually has been defeated and who knows it. This is the desperation phase of this war at this point. The question, though, is it hasn't yet ended and it can end in a much worse way than what we're already in. He's looking at increasingly bad escalatory options to give the pretense that he is in control, hoping that the sounds of more explosions in Iran will cover up the fact that he has absolutely no strategy. Yeah. And just talked to us a little bit about why reopening the straight has become clearly so central in Trump's mind. And I think it's also worth noting that all of these moves occurred after the market's closed on Friday, which I don't think is an accident. Yeah. And even then, he actually didn't strike the old facilities. If I'm sitting in Tehran right now, I will interpret that.

as Trump's aim at playing madman has come to an end and that he is now being constrained by others. He probably wanted to go all the way. This is just speculation on my end. He wanted to go all the way. But there was such pushback inside the U.S. government pointing out the tremendous negative effects this would have on the global economy, on oil markets and on the U.S. economy months before midterm, that he had to pull it back and instead just did this pinpoint attacks against the military facilities. which then tells the Iranians, Trump is no willing to escalate further. This further strengthens their sense, false or correctly, that they are more in control of the situation right now. So you see this, you believe the Iranians will perceive this in spite of the bluster as effectively being a sign of weakness that he attacked, he constrained his attacks to the military facilities, is only threatening the oil infrastructure, but is unwilling to go there himself because of the pain that he knows.

that will create in his own economy? I believe that that is a likely interpretation on the Iranian side. I think there was an expectation on the Iranian side that he would take, attack to all facilities on that island, that it potentially even tried to seize the island. The Iranians know that seizing the island actually is not that terribly difficult. Keeping it and making it anything of value is much more difficult because the Iranians can then rain drones and missiles on that island, which is right off their coast. I mean, the time these drones would fly would be so short.

And they have such more effective short-range missiles compared to their long-term missiles, long-distance missiles, which also have proven to be very effective. But they would at that point also destroy their own island and their own oil facilities, which would be a very high cost to the Iranian. So I think we've seen a point in which the US kind of backed down from a very, very strong escalatory move, recognizing that this would be more or less suicidal. My colleague, Amirhanjani, at the Quincy Institute, believes that, what we're seeing right now, and he's an economist,

is the beginning of the COVID phase of the global economy, that it's going in that direction, which means that we will have a major, major economic contraction. COVID ended up costing in the first year and negative 3% GDP contraction globally, and that this is now the early phases of that, unless this war is stopped. But stopping the war is no longer in the control of Trump.

He, and this is part of the reason why you're seeing, this increasingly desperate language. He knows very well that even if he stops attacking Iran pulls out of the waters in the Indian Ocean, declares victory, points to things that he actually had achieved in this war in terms of degrading Iran's military, the Iranians will likely continue to close the straits and control who comes in and who doesn't. Because they have that ability right now. This is not the same closure of the straits as it would have been 20 years ago in which they would have just put mines in the waters and they would have no control who, you know, whose ships would be exploded. Now they have full control. They can control whether a Chinese

ships goes in or not or whether an Italian one goes in. And they themselves have actually been exporting more oil during the war than they did prior to the war. What did you think of the move on their part to say, we'll let some ships through, but it's going to be denominated not in U.S. dollars, but in Chinese yuan. I mean, they're doing everything they can to just squeeze Trump and the U.S. economy as much as possible. I don't know if. that's going to be successful in terms of getting countries to switch over. But many of those countries are going to be quite desperate. I mean, India only has old reserves for 25 days. The impact on Asian markets right now is already been devastating. Already last weekend, they started to cut down

on the number of days. Schools are open, offices are open because they don't have the few for all of these different things. The U.S. is a little bit further removed, has a much stronger reserve. But all of those things that is happening in the global economy, just as it was with COVID, will come back to haunt the U.S. economy as well sooner or later. Let me ask you about this reporting from the Wall Street Journal, which indicates that this is Ali Aboumna, sorry, Aboumna, who's a great reporter and journalist, and he's saying U.S. military leaking. They warned Trump that Iran would close her moves, but he ignored them thinking Iran would collapse and he'd get swift, decisive victory. And here's one of the quotes from here.

General Dan Kane, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Trump an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. Kane said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world's most vital shipping lane. Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but move forward anyway. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait. And even if Iran tried the U.S. Canadian women are looking for more. More into themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are out of them. And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast.

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military could handle it. So I think a few things that were noteworthy to me. I mean, first of all, just the fact that these leaks are coming out now of people in the administration, likely in the military brass are trying to say, listen, we tried to tell this guy that this was a bad idea, which shows you as an indication that on the inside, they also think that this is, you know, a catastrophe on their hands at this point. And then obviously the details here that Trump rather than listening to military experts was sort of high on his own supply. coming off what he perceives as this magnificent victory in Venezuela and thought, all the Iranians, they'll capitulate. They're just going to threaten this. It's an empty threat. And they'll break before we ever get to this point. With one small, well, actually very important addition to that, there was some other people also whispering in his air saying, ignore the advice of the U.S. intelligence service,

ignored advice of the U.S. military. And that were the Israelis who were telling him constantly, Iran is at its weakest point. ever, they will capitulate, they have no other option. Go back to what I've been saying for the last couple of months that the whole approach to the diplomacy was erroneous because he was under a false impression that the Iranians are much weaker than they actually were. He ruined the diplomacy because he thought capitulation was in the card and now he's turning a war into a debacle because he thinks capitulation is in the cart. And this was not something that he came up on his own. This was something that the Israelis kept on pushing onto him. I mean, the whole idea that there was a moment to

attack was because Iran is at its weakest ever. I mean, just go back and look at the reporting from that time. This was constantly repeated by the pro-Israeli crowd in Washington and by Israeli officials. Those are the people Trump chose to listen to instead of his own military, and here we are. What do you make of the reporting that the Saudis also were influential in pushing Trump towards war? I think the picture that has emerged is that the Saudi foreign ministry actually lobbied against this war, but unbeknownst to them, MBS himself. lobbied in favor of it. And this has been a pattern that we've seen in the past in which NBS does his own thing completely above the government, kind of like Trump. And the rest of the

government is not necessarily even aware of it. We're also seeing now that there is clear evidence that the U.S. has been using some GCC states soiled Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to attack Iran. And we've seen how the Iranians have struck at Saudi bases and destroyed. American refueling planes are extremely expensive, seven of them, if I'm not mistaken. So even though those bases may not at that point have been used, and we don't know for CERN, for direct attacks, they were integrally part of the logistics and the refueling. In fact, the Israeli planes have had their, whatever that thing is called on, trackers on. So if, you know, the Iranians could see that Israeli planes were flying to the Saudi.

airfields in the midst of that war. So part of the reason why the Iranians are striking as well is not just because they're trying to squeeze the economy, et cetera, is because there is a realization on both sides. Both sides have kind of pretended as if everything is better than it is. But behind the scenes, it's clear evidence that some of these states have actually been somewhat supportive of this war logistically. They may have had great difficulty saying no to Trump. They may not have done it eagerly.

But this is part of the reason why the Iranians have been also been striking at some of these Saudi airfields. So I saw, and I'm sure you did as well, the reports that they're bringing in this marine expeditionary force, some 2,500 Marines being rushed into the region. What does that tell you about where this war may go next from the U.S. side? It just looks to me as if it's getting more and more desperate. Now, are they going to use those 2,500 troops, Marines to go and take that island? They might succeed in taking the island, but then they're sitting ducks.

and the Iranians will rain missiles and drones onto them. They will destroy their own island and all the old facilities, but they will get far more American casualties than they have been able to get by striking places, empty bases in Bahrain and in Kuwait and other places. And what can you achieve with $2,500 now troops? And is this about doing some special operations inside of Iranian territory going in and taking the nuclear?

You know, they have the enriched uranium somewhere under the mountains, there, there is still some potential leverage for the Iranians. That would be an extremely risky operation. This is not like sneaking into someone's house and stealing their wallet and going out. This will take hours and hours in which they would be sitting ducks and would be under tremendous attacks. This would be extremely risky. So it's just not clear to me at all. And I think it's not clear to Trump either.

He went in with a wrong impression. This was going to be easy. he is now stuck in a war that he doesn't know how to get out of. There is a path out. There is a path out. And that is that the U.S. will call an end to this war, but there will also be negotiation indirectly with the Iranians. And the Iranians are going to ask for certain things. And I suspect that some of them will be completely unacceptable,

such as reparations. But I think that other things will perhaps be in that moment when it's become absolutely clear that this is beyond insane. At that moment, it may actually be feasible for the United States. States to also do some sanctions relief for the Iranians. For instance, lifting sanctions on the GCC states or some Asian states that would then start trading with the Iranians and that would be something the Iranians could then accept in order to open the straits.

Others are saying, and you will see an op-ed on Monday, that this will actually cost a trillion dollars to get the straits open. And most of that will be money that will be coming from Saudi Arabia and the UAE as a compensation to Iran, that they will pay the reparations to Iran for this work. I'm not sure it's going to go exactly in that direction and in those amounts. But I think there's a premise in that argument that is true. This is not going to be cost-free in terms of ending the war. There's going to have to be concessions.

There's going to have to be measures because the Iranians have leverage now. They clearly have leverage now. And they're not going to give it up easily or cheaply. What do you make of these comments that David Sachs just made? He's co-hosts of the All-in podcast. More importantly, for this conversation, he is the White House's Crypto, and he was warning of what he described as a potentially catastrophic situation. He indicated that Iran can basically destroy the economies of the GCC states and inflicts

significant damage on Israel as well, especially over time as their defenses are worn down. And he also warned of the possibility of Israel deploying a nuclear weapon, which is extraordinary in and of itself, but also for an administration official, even to acknowledge that Israel has nuclear weapons is extraordinary. Is that a concern that you share with him? I do. Absolutely. And I've spoken to several people in government or around government who share that concern, including that it could be used by the United States. They do believe, however, that the likelihood of Israelis using it is greater and faster in the sense that there's still a lot of guardrails around the American side using the nuclear weapons. But that in itself tells

you how bad this war is going. I think David did something extremely courageous coming out and saying this and he might be in a unique position to be able to say it because he can leave the administration, cost free more or less. He doesn't look for a longer political career or anything like that. But I think it's really reflective of what actually has happened inside government throughout this period. Trump was the driving force behind this war with Netanyahu constantly whispering his air. Others were not excited about this at all, but they were not pushing back in the manner that they probably should have and could have. Part of the reason why they didn't is because those who did back in June are no longer at the table.

And the cost was seen as very high for having done so. So now the ones remaining were a little bit more careful. What they did is like, well, you probably need another aircraft carrier. Actually throw in two of them in there. And you need a couple of more weeks to amass more troops. All of these different things to try to get it through to the guy, this is a really bad idea. But the point never reached home.

Well, that's a very interesting insight and would sort of square the circle of what J.D. Vancebe had been doing behind the scene. because there was a leak that he was pushing for a bigger attack. And, of course, then his people, that is seen as having come from sort of the Susie Wiles, Marco Rubio camp. Then there were leaked scenes come from his camp of no, no, he was reluctant. Could have been that he was reluctant. But the tactic that he used was saying, oh, you need more. You know, we need a bigger armada.

We got to rush more to the region. This is a very common tactic. I mean, this is actually a very common tactic used by the military. Because the military hates it. when politicians throw them in to unthought through wars, knowing very well that politicians don't have the political willpower to stay in that fight. The military hates to be thrown into wars that are not lost militarily but are lost politically. So what they say is, look, if you want to do this, you're going to need 10 times more of this,

100 times more of this, etc. Just to make it clear to the politicians that this is not as easy as you think it's going to be. And if you want to go in this, it's going to be for the long haul. It's going to be much more complicated. are you really ready to do it? That strategy, however, did not seem to work with Trump. Lastly, we saw the Iranians warning citizens in the GCC states, in particular in UAE. What do you think their next move may be as they continue to try to turn the screws on the U.S. and wage, you know, what is already becoming a fairly successful economic war?

You know, when you take a look at the number of attacks, the UAE actually has not been struck as hard. as for instance Kuwait and Bahrain have been. So this may just be one of the things that they're doing is shifting a little bit of the focus over there. As I'm sure you may have reported as well, the UAE is one of those countries that puts you in jail if you are posting on social media about what actually is happening in the country

or if you're putting out videos of these attacks, these fires, etc. There's a 60-year-old British car that just was apprehended by the UAE authorities for simply having posted something about this. So I think, you know, the image of the UAE suffering is in and of itself something that further puts pressure on all countries and on the global economy as a whole. And I think, again, the problem the U.S. has here is that the

Iranians have a very, very rich number of targets throughout the region in different ways that they can really put a squeeze on the global economy. It's not just through the straits. And this is, again, this is part of the reason why most of it is. did everything they could to prevent his war from having started in the first place. I have to say,

Trump has been one of those presidents that beyond many things that he's done that I think is highly, highly problematic. He's been very careful not to put himself in lose-lose situations

on the international stage. This is the mother of all lose-lose situations and he put it himself there against the advice of most of his advisors. Yeah, I think that is well said. Dr. Parsi,

thank you for your insights. As always appreciate your time. Thank you so much for having me. Next Monday, our 2026 IHeart Podcast Awards are happening live in South by Southwest. This is the biggest night in podcasting. We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry. And the winner is... Creativity, knowledge, and passion will all be on full display.

Thank you so much. IHeart Radio. Thank you to all the other nominees. You guys are awesome. Watch live next Monday at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific free at Veeps.com or the Veeps up. Ego Wodam is your host for the 2026 IHeart Podcast Awards

live at South by Southwest. Hello, is anybody there? Raised by a single mom, Ego may have a few father-related issues. Are we supposed to talk about your dad? Her podcast, Thanks Dad, is full of funny, heartfelt conversations with actors, including fellow S&L alums, comedians,

musicians, and more about life and their wonderfully complicated relationships with their fathers. I think and hope that's a good thing. Get to know Ego. Follow Thanks, Dad with Ego Wodom, and start listening. on the free IHeart Radio app today. You know Roald Dahl. He thought up Willie Wonka and the BFG.

But did you know he was a spy? In the new podcast, The Secret World of Roll Dahl, I'll tell you that story, and much, much more. What? You probably won't believe it either. Was this before he wrote his stories? It must have been. Okay, I don't think that's true.

I'm telling you. I was a spy. Listen to The Secret World of Roll Dahl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.