Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 3/23/26: Oil Market Chaos, Bibi Claims Al-Aqsa Threatened, Trump Declares Regime Change Victory
Episode Date: March 23, 2026Krystal and Saagar discuss oil market chaos, Bibi claims Al-Aqsa threatened, Trump declares regime change victory. Trita Parsi: https://x.com/tparsi?s=20 To become a Breaking Point...s Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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All right, Mark, it's absolutely wild this morning.
Let's go ahead and start with this one.
Put it up there on the screen.
Exactly 12 hours, President Trump
has now intervened after a warning
that was issued about potential market fallout
that would have happened without a Trump taco.
Yesterday, they posted that oil prices
were no longer the biggest threat to the markets.
Increasingly clear that bond markets
would dictate how President Trump
can continue increased pressure in the Iran war.
As a 4.30 a.m. ET this morning,
the bond market was, quote, now more broken
than the energy market situation.
The 10-year note yield had hit 4.45%.
President Trump had the same conversation
as he did April 9th, 2025,
when he had paused tariffs for 90 days,
remember all the whole bond market conversation that we had last year.
Three hours later, he postpones all strikes on Iranian power plants.
30 minutes later, Iran denies the 10-year yield briefly collapsed before rebounding back to 4.38%.
Now a clear attempt by the U.S. to contain a brewing bond market crisis, which obviously affects all of the debt.
It affects mortgage rates, has huge impact on everything.
The bond crisis and reaction that happened after the 12-day – or sorry, after the Liberation Day War,
that clearly had a major impact on his thinking.
Go to the next one, please.
We can put this one up there on the screen, as we say now.
As seen in April 2025, this is what his prediction was,
as of the early, very early this morning,
that President Trump would have to intervene very, very soon.
Could explain the taco.
Don't forget that there are also all of these crazy things happening
with the oil markets.
So again, as of this morning, there was a large plunge.
We remain around 9% down for,
Brent crude oil futures from the high that they opened on last night. However, at one point,
they were down like 14 percent, and they erased like half of that because of the Iranian
denial that negotiations were happening. So something to keep an eye on. I mean, it's still at
nearly $100 a barrel. Like, let's not pretend. Yeah, 90 bucks a barrel is not a great place to be in.
Yeah, we're about 90 for West Texas. So that's still, I mean, if this lasts a couple of days,
you will likely see a reduction.
I think that's the analysis I saw in gas.
You will probably see it returned to like $350, something like that.
It depends on how the individual operators are.
I'm talking about the national price average.
Don't know about the individual states.
But clearly this was bubbling up at the population level, as it should.
People are furious.
Good example of that was the UN ambassador, Mike Waltz, took to a CNN town hall
and a younger voter confronted him over gas prices.
Let's take a listen.
I'm a waiter at a local restaurant in Queens,
a full-time college student who sleeps an average of four hours at night
and is still thousands in debt.
How is a war in a country half the world away,
funded by the taxes pulled from my check, helping me in any way?
Yeah, it's a, look, it's a valid and it's a tough question.
I know for certain, and if we just look at the,
the things the president has put in place in terms of housing and big corporations that are buying up
whole neighborhoods, the tax cuts that he extended with the big, beautiful bill, the energy policies
that we're putting in place to not only make us self-sufficient, but to, you know, lessen these
dependencies and lower prices, even lowering prescription drug prices. The president's absolutely
focused on what you're seeing day in and day out that's affecting your pocketbook.
At the same time, as Commander-in-Chief, he has to weigh the risks and make the tough
decisions facing some hard truths.
We cannot have a world with a genocidal terroristic regime that holds not only your generation
but the next generation hostage with nuclear weapons.
And those are the tough calls that the American people elected him to make.
And I can tell you, having worked very closely with him, he doesn't back off his red lines,
and he doesn't enter us into bad deals.
But those are tough decisions, no doubt.
And I know they're top of mind for the entire administration.
Yeah.
How do we all feel having listening to that?
How's that waiter feel?
How's that guy feel?
The guy who's thousands of dollars in debt is now getting crushed.
He's like, how exactly does this affect my?
life. That's a great question, man. And that's why I always love the town halls. People have a real
way of just getting right down to it. Yeah. And yeah, you know, everyone, every American should
be asking that question right now of this administration and specifically of the Iran war. You could
not care. You could check out. You're still going to have to pay more at the gas price,
which Joe Biden found out the hard way during the Ukraine war. So. And not only him, by the way,
I mean, when inflation spiked around the world, basically, it was like a total global sweet-down
of almost every incumbent. I mean, it was a,
it was a massive global referendum on that inflation.
And that all started with gas prices.
You know, I'm thinking about that gentleman in particular to talk about he's a waiter, right?
So probably, you know, tips are a significant part of his income.
This is somebody who would have seen a benefit from the no tax on tips provisions very likely
that President Trump signed into law.
You know, there are some other tax provisions.
They were really counting on that would be like, oh, this is going to be our sales pitch for the
midterners.
People are going to get more money back from the government when they filed.
taxes. Obviously, that's going on right now. My parents were getting like a senior credit that
I'm sure Saga was really excited about having been put into the tax code. But now that money,
that's going right back out the door and into your gas tank. And that's just the beginning.
Because, of course, you know, with our economy structured the way it is, that fuels inflation
across the board. And, you know, I hope that gas prices come down a little bit this week.
But the other dynamic that we experienced during the, you know, Ukraine war and COVID,
inflationary spikes is that they're very quick to raise the prices.
Takes a little bit longer to bring them back down.
They like to hold them high as long as they can get away with it.
So I have no doubt we'll see that dynamic here play on as well.
Yeah, exactly.
Remember, diesel came down.
Did anybody's got a grocery price come down?
Because I haven't seen it, all right?
Let's go to, I know people like my McDonald's updates.
My wife wanted McDonald's.
I went to McDonald's yesterday.
Medium fries $450?
$450.
That's crazy.
What should that cost to you?
To me, 99 cents, right?
I'll give it $2.00.
Again, I don't need McDonald's.
So it's one of those things where this is literally my only,
and yes, I did use the app for all the people who got mad at me for not using the app.
$450, $450 for medium frown.
What the hell is going on?
Listen, I have the luxury of being able to take a principled stand against the app,
but I am against the app because they will attract you, they will hunt you down.
Oh, I know.
And demands you go and eat a sausage biscuit or something.
I use it one time.
I don't need that kind of temptation in my life.
And now all of a sudden, it's just like, hey, you want a free sausage?
You know, you want to free this?
You want to free that?
Well, it's not, is it really free?
It's not free if you're paying $4.50 for a medium fry.
I can post a receipt if anybody doesn't believe me.
But to that point, let's go and put C7 up here on the screen.
Inflation coming to a gas station and or a grocery store near you.
$5 diesel already crushing truckers will soon be felt across the economy.
It's a heartbreaking story.
These poor guys.
Yeah.
I mean, these guys, they're like barely floating on the margins.
And they're talking about this 40% increase month over month in the price of diesel.
If they say that they have to take lesser loads, that they have to drive in weird ways to avoid hills,
that if they have a single blowout that they're in, if they have an engine problem, their entire business is done.
This is like the backbone.
This is the what, what is it, the one, I think it's the one profession left in the U.S.
where you can reliably not have a college education,
make like six figures,
actually control your own destiny,
especially if you're an independent contractor,
if you save up enough to have your own rig,
and you can take jobs as you please,
you have a little bit of work-life balance,
even though it sucks, obviously,
to drive as much as they have to do,
but they make a modest amount of money
and they can generally survive.
So, of course, that's also, as I understand it,
the most mega, six-figure profession in the United States.
So, yeah, literally screwing your own voters.
It's not just about who they vote for.
it's a tough, it's an incredibly tough job.
And it's the last bastion of some agency
without signing up for a life in front of a computer.
So I really, I really feel for these guys.
40% increase month over month.
I mean, how many business?
We run a business.
If our costs weren't up 40%,
yeah, I mean, we survive, but I'd be like,
you start to make a lot of decisions, right?
There's a lot of stuff that's going to start getting cut
and especially planning for the future.
So I really, I really do feel, you know, for these truck drivers.
And this gets passed on
to consumers. And they talk about this in this article about, they interviewed this guy,
Miguel Caveta. He says he spent $1,800 in diesel fuel during a one week on the road. And that
that was a 40% increase from what he normally does. And he recognizes he's like, yeah,
I know, this is going to get passed on ultimately to consumers who are going to pay more for
everything that I'm hauling because, you know, that's the way it works. It's not like the companies
that are more profitable in the, you know, the middlemen here are going to take the head. No,
They're going to push it down to the truckers who are in less of a position of power and they're going to push it on to consumers.
That's what's going to happen.
People are going to get squeezed.
Yeah, exactly.
And keeping here with a little bit of this, we can show you guys some of the stuff.
So, for example, C6, this is where we're at now currently.
This is the nationwide gas price as of this morning.
This was about $3.95.
A gallon is the nationwide average.
It'll probably hit four before coming down in a couple days if the downturn continues.
Obviously, who knows, with the whole Trump talk.
Israel situation. But I mean, in California, it's $570 a gallon. That's madness. And our producer Griffin
tells us in Los Angeles, it's easily $6 a gallon, San Diego, a few other places in the state
of California. So I really do feel for all those people. And what is the White House telling us?
What are the conservative media, Fox News, and others saying is short-term pain for a long-term
game? C-5. Let's take a listen. This is a short-term disruption for the long-term gain.
Short-term pain for the long-term gain.
Short-term pain be for long-term gain.
We're going to have some short-term pain with long-term gain.
Short-term pay for a long-term gain.
Some short-term pain, yes, but we've got some long-term gain.
Short-term spike for a long-term gain.
Some short-term pain for American consumers.
We may have to deal with that in the short-term.
Short-term and temporary.
Temporary short-term pain.
It's going to suck in the short-term pain.
Some short-term pain.
We have to focus.
on the short term.
Memo went out.
The memo's out.
That's the Fox News line.
The boomers are like,
yeah, you're right for short term.
They're just sitting on their stock portfolios
and their new social security checks.
They're like, oh, you know,
if it costs more to drive to the casino
to piss away my social security stock,
so be it.
That's the long-term gain.
Have you seen that meme, too?
It's like the year is 2030.
The boomers will tell us,
you were right about the Iran war and the Iraq war.
But this time, Turkey is an existential
threat to the United States.
It's coming. They'll learn nothing.
They'll learn absolutely. No, that's absolutely right.
There's one last piece here that I just want to flag C8, because I thought this was interesting,
this kind of like time limit of the short-term pain, I guess.
They're saying that these Wall Street analysts in these corporate executives basically feel
like there's like a two-week time limit here.
The economy has a straight-of-formist deadline for Trump two weeks where, you know, I mean,
already oil prices have been pretty high, you know, up to $100 and be.
Beyond. Right now, they're down, back down at about $90 a barrage, still not great. But in any case, you know, even Trump expressed surprise at like, oh, how come I thought it would actually be a little bit worse than this. There are some indications they may be directly intervening in the economy to keep the oil prices from completely spiking out of control. But you can see this is a concern. That's the whole reason for the talker right before the market's open this morning, et cetera. But in any case, this is kind of the sense on Wall Street is like, all right, we'll give them about two more weeks. If you can't get the straight of Hormuz open, that's kind of when we're going to.
lose hope that a taco, an achievable taco is truly on the horizon. So, you know,
according to this article, at least, that's kind of how the clock is ticking right now.
We'll see. All right, let's get to Beebe.
Why hasn't a woman formerly participated in a Formula One race weekend in over a decade?
Think about how many skills they have to develop at such a young age.
What can we learn from all of the new F1 romance novels suddenly popping up every year?
He still smelled of podium champagne and expensive,
friction.
And how did a
2023 event called Waggeddon
change the paddock forever?
That day is just
seared into my memory.
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a few of the questions I'm tackling on no grip,
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Last thing that we alluded to a little bit earlier before we get to Andrew Wilkerson is specifically about Israel and these alleged strikes that are currently happening, where they are,
claiming that Iran is trying to damage the holy sites in Jerusalem.
The problem, of course, with that is if something were to happen, whether it's false lag or a
real attack, who knows from some sort of falling debris, that it could trigger a literal
religious war on top of the disaster that were already in.
So let's play some of this footage that was coming out of Israel, where you could actually
see these Iranian ballistic missile fragments, according to the Israelis, that struck
near the old city of Jerusalem.
They're saying that it fell roughly 400 yards from the Western Wall and the Al-Aksa Mosque.
The reason why this is important is that the Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately began
using these strikes as evidence of a holy war of being targeting and why other nations need to be brought into it.
Let's take a listen from the Prime Minister what he had to say.
If anyone needed an explanation of why
Why Iran is the enemy of civilization and the enemy and the danger to the entire world, you got it in the last 48 hours.
In the last 48 hours, they fired a terror weapon on civilians, on children.
There's a children's nursery here. There's an old man, old person's home here.
Civilians, families, they fire terror weapons on civilians.
And often they use cluster bombs, which are forbidden.
forbidden by international law.
The second thing that they did is that they fired on Jerusalem right next to the holy places.
They sent ballistic missiles that could have destroyed the Church of the Holy Sepulchre,
the Alaksa Mosque, and the Western Wall.
The three holiest sites to the three monotheistic religions, they don't care.
They're firing on everyone.
The third thing they did is they fired an intercontinental ballistic missiles 4,000 kilometers right into Diego Garcia, the American
American British base. They can reach now with these ballistic missiles everywhere in Europe,
almost everywhere in Europe. So he talks there about, so remember, that's why he spent time,
Diego Garcia. A lot of propaganda pieces there. Right to hear Diego Garcia mentioned there at the end,
the Al-Axa and the holy sites of Jerusalem. They're talking about that could be a potential for,
you know, some sort of precipitating event for a complete takeover or destruction of the mosque.
Also, the cluster, spare me, cluster munitions and targeting civilians, you know, the Israel.
Braillees would never use cluster munitions, right?
Except, like, multiple confirmed times over Lebanon.
Yeah.
I happen to remember who covered here on the show.
Neither Iran or Israel signed the, you know, the treaty banning use of cluster munitions.
But anything from this man talking about, oh, my God, civilian.
Like, you opened this box.
Like, you have no room to talk.
Like, yes, you're right.
Iran is committing war crimes.
You assassinated their head of state in the opening salvos.
And the Americans bombed schoolgirls.
and murdered 168 of them.
So you're gonna lecture the world about civilian life.
Okay, yeah, sure.
Most moral army in the world, yeah.
And do not forget this video,
which had been flagged by Turner Carlson and many others,
of a rabbi from 2024 saying,
hey, if we need to, we could pretend that there was an attack
on Al-Axa and then use it as an excuse
to rebuild their temple.
Let's take a listen.
It's all moved by Ashemes.
to this location, to that location.
We don't know.
Maybe one of the missiles will hit the mask
and clear the place for the third Veta Mikdash.
That could also be a miracle.
If it was up to me,
the last time when they shot hundreds of missiles,
I would pretend that one missile came from Iran and shoot it down.
You know?
Then all the Arabs would go against Iran.
It would be the end of the problem.
You make them fight with each other, this bunch of lunatics.
Never too late, you deal with a bunch of cowards.
The Israeli leaders, they just want to pass the week.
So, there you go.
Yeah.
Very controversial rabbi, Mizraachi, who was very upset, by the way,
at Tucker Carlson for playing that video.
For playing him his own words.
For, you know, for absolutely exposing some of the things that he said in the past.
I mean, look, I absolutely stand by anyone's right to play some of the thinking that comes out of the region.
Because I've said it many times, after October 7th, if you listen to the most hysterical lefty,
or if you listen to the totally psycho settlers about what their goals were,
and the lefties were saying, like, here's what Israel's going to do,
you would have been much more accurate in understanding where things were ultimately headed.
I mean, at the time, when you talked about the Greater Israel Project,
you were considered a complete and total nut job.
Now you look at Syria, you look at Lebanon, you look at the West Bank, you look at Gaza, you look at the whole region, right?
And you've got our own ambassador being asked again by Tucker Carlson, hey, you know, the Bible says this is the area that Israel is supposed to make up.
You cool if they take that, that area, which encompasses, you know, parts or the whole of multiple countries in the region.
He's like, yes, they do that. That's fine.
That is official state of government policy coming from our ambassador, which was never disputed by the president or anyone else in the administration.
by the way, that'd be a good question actually to ask somebody in the administration whether they stand by that.
But do you put this past the Israelis? You think they wouldn't do something like this? If they thought it would benefit them, they absolutely would.
And again, you have to think of not only do you have, you know, fanatical, religious fanatics who are in control of the government and deeply influential in terms of this government coalition in terms of that society at large.
You have Netanyahu again as this old man who wants to have his legacy and his imprint on the world.
And you have this connection between the eschatology of the Jewish, the like Jewish extremists
with the American evangelicals that converge in the site of Alaksa Mosque and what they would, you know,
rebuild there as a third temple.
So, you know, you've got the war justification of this, you know, racist rabbi saying like, oh,
these Arabs, they're maniacs.
They're crazy.
they'll all fight each other.
So you've got that idea of let's turn all these people against each other and they'll all fight
each other and we won't have to deal with them.
You see that in some of the war strategy, right?
We actually know one of the attacks on Bahrain that was purported to have come from Iran,
actually now we know it was a Tomahawk.
That was a U.S. missile that actually did the damage there in Bahrain.
We've had other indications that the Americans and the Israelis are actually responsible for
some of the attacks that they are blamed.
on Iran. Why? Because they want to draw the entire region in. They want to make it so that those Arab
Gulf states that they also fully join the fight without hesitation. The Diego Garcia strike,
if that is, you know, if that was a false flag, which I think is possible. I'm not saying it is.
I'm saying it's possible. What's the goal of that to draw Europe in? So this is the way that they think
and it's the way that they operate. And Bebe, in those comments about how, oh, Jesus,
Christ would lose to Jingas Khan.
What he's asserting there is we can do because we are inherently the good guys.
Inherently, not because of our actions, just inherently, this supremacist view.
We can do anything.
And it's still good because we're trying to prevail over them and they are inherently evil.
That's his view of the world.
Like, that is what he laid out.
That is what he meant by those comments.
Yeah, this was, I mean, that quote was so wild.
Yeah, what was Emily's take, actually?
I'm curious.
You know, Emily's very measured.
Yeah.
She just explained, like, well, it comes from this book and here's a view.
I was a little familiar with it.
It was like, here's the thing.
He clearly was not quoting it in a way like maybe I would analytically.
He was doing it in like a praiseworthy manner.
And he was like trying to, I think, I'm not Christian.
Evil will win.
That was his quote.
It's basically like evil wins out.
I'm like, well, that is true, you know, in a matter of like test of wills and military force.
But to cite Jesus's name.
In that, that's pretty wild.
And I think, again, I mean, I don't know how many times these Christian Zionists need to be like literally spit on by these literally spit on, if you think I'm joking about some Christians there are treated before them to wake up.
I will never understand it.
Like they look at them like cattle.
I've seen that.
I've talked to some of the Israeli people.
They're like, oh, yeah, these crazy people, they come over here.
They need us to die so that their Messiah will come back.
They literally laugh at you while they take your money and they want you to continue to support them.
And they do. I just, it's so nuts. You know, the Paula White stories that recently came out from our Religious Liberty Commission and all of this put together. That's why, you know, to your point, October 8th, 2023, when we're sitting here talking about Greater Israel and Patches and Third Temples, you seem like an insane person. Red Heifer.
Tucker, yeah, the Red Heifer. Tucker made a good point where our society is so secular, we can't conceive of this stuff. Because to me, it seems nuts.
But even though it does, I am empathetic, not in like a way that I appreciate, but like empathetic enough to understand like this is a real religious conflict for a lot of these people.
And I don't put it past them.
Both the Israel, I mean, who knows?
Even potential some sort of what the reaction to that could be, considering the history of the region and the second intifada and the whole like going, you know, like going to the mosque or the temple mount.
Nothing pisses me off more though.
Don't put that to the side.
then when they try to frame this as some like 2,000-year-old blood feud, it's like Israel is a modern
creation. And I'm not saying everything was hunky-dory all the time, but you had Christians,
Jews, and Muslims who by and large were able to peacefully coexist for generate. No, this is not a
religious battle. This is a political battle over land, territory, and sovereignty. That's what this is.
And so, you know, I think the leaders who are involved here, you know, Trump is not an event.
angelical, right? But he's happy to use that if it serves his war aims. Netanyahu is, by all accounts,
a secular person, like a, you know, not super fanatical religious, but is he happy to use,
you know, people's genuine religious views and fanaticism, frankly? Is he happy to use that
for his war aims? Of course he is. So it's like any other sort of sigh up, it's a tool to manipulate
the masses. It's a tool to justify things that are otherwise, not at all justifiable.
You know, I mean, he uses also not in all this language, oh, the children of the light and the
children of the darkness. Again, the framing that he puts down to the population, the population
believes, by the way, judging by their own reaction to, you know, the atrocities that their
state routinely commits, he puts out that effectively they are always and forever the good guys,
period, end of story. And I think there's a lot of Americans who believe that about America,
too. If it's us, then it's the good guys. It doesn't really matter what we do. If we did something
that was, it was an oopsie, it was an aberration. If one of our sworn enemies does something bad,
that speaks to their direct character. That's because they are inherently bad. And so that's how
they can go about justifying all of these wars and wars of aggression and, you know, invasions and
ethnic cleansing and genocide, war crimes, embalming schoolgirls, etc. It's because they're inherently
the good one. So in any case, anytime I hear now that like directly,
religious rhetoric coming from any of these leaders, but Netanyahu in particular, my ears really
perk up because I think it's very, very significant. And so the moment he mentioned, like, oh,
and Iran is targeting near the Al-Axamask, I found that to be a very ominous comment from him.
Totally agree. All right, we got Wilkerson standing by. Let's get to it.
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All right, guys, looks like we had a scheduling snafu with Lawrence Wilkerson.
So hopefully we'll be able to work that out to get him on in on the show in the near future because I definitely want to speak with him.
But in the meantime, we've had some breaking news.
Trump apparently talking on the phone to a couple of his favorite host over at CNBC Joe Kernan reported that this is how their conversation went.
Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
President went on to say or insist that this is regime change because it's totally different people.
that were involved in the last regime, I would imagine some of the people are the same.
This is the president's take on that, insisting that its regime changed.
So, I don't know, Sagra.
This is like an attempt for Trump to declare mission accomplished.
I don't know.
Oh, we did change the regime because we murdered the Ayatollah, and now his son is in charge who's
reportedly more hardline.
I mean, they killed a bunch of the people who, he even said that they killed a bunch of
the people that they thought maybe they would be negotiating an end to the war.
So he's trying to frame this, I guess, as some sort of a positive.
Yeah.
Look, if this is what it takes to say mission accomplished,
Mr. President, you're a genius.
You've accomplished the regime.
Masterful regime change.
Nobody could else.
Nobody else.
And I really mean nobody could have done it.
Quite like you.
Quite like you.
I'm giving you all a preview of,
I'm going to try and sigh out my way on the Fox News
and give an incredibly serious, like,
take praising him,
but also pepper it with little things.
like that and be like, thank you for your bravery in this decision. So yeah, I mean, look,
if this is what it takes, this is what it takes. At the very same time, we've got this interview that
he just did with Maria Bartriomo. Let's take a listen. Welcome back. I just spoke with
President Trump and he told me that Iran wants to make a deal badly. He said that the talks have
been ongoing. I said, how much longer will this conflict go on? He said the talk. He said the talk
I said five days to halt or postpone strikes on the electrical infrastructure.
It could happen sooner, he said, but I have put down five days.
I asked him what his reaction is to Iranian state television saying that there are no talks.
And he said he's not sure what they are referring to because the most recent talks happened, in fact, last night with Steve Whitkoff and Jared
Kushner and their counterparts, when I asked about the Iranian TV saying that no talks have happened,
he said, it's hard to get any information there because of the U.S. is blowing up so much of their
infrastructure. So again, he wasn't sure whether Iran state TV was talking about because the most
recent talks, he said, happened last night. With Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, again,
the president just told me moments ago that the Iranians want to do a deal badly.
The market, of course, has reversed course this morning after the president posted this morning.
In the middle of a big decline in markets, he said that he has directed the military to postpone
strikes on the electrical infrastructure and the power plants for five days as these talks continue.
There you go.
Actually, I mean, look, he's claiming some Kushner and Witkoff exchanges.
Iranian TV saying no talks have happened.
By the way, there's no public reporting that this is even true.
Axios, which is like the White House scribe, when they were talking about the talks,
what they said it was via intermediaries of Egypt, Turkey, and a few other countries,
which were talking to both.
Were messages being exchanged in reality?
I mean, here's the truth.
What it probably was, the U.S. were like, hey, here's our demands.
And the Iranians were like, hey, here's our demands,
to the Turks or to the Egyptians,
and they were just calling each other saying what it was.
There's been no subs.
Obviously, there has been no actual substantive exchange.
If Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have proof of this,
they should release it.
The Iranians are denying it completely outright
that any of it has happened.
Again, look, if he needs to pretend, be my guest,
that there are some functional talks that are happening.
But that would require Iranians actually taking it seriously
and constraining Israel.
And, you know, look, our show is a bit difficult to program this morning because so much breaking news is happening.
But it's like I said, the Israeli Air Force has already announced, quote, the Air Force has begun a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran.
Combine that also with some of the comments that were made here to Maria Bartryomo, there is no indication that any actual off-ramp is being pursued.
Is this a moratorium of all U.S. strikes?
Of all Israeli strikes?
No.
It's saying that the promised energy strikes
that would happen in five days
have been called off.
Now, at this point, maybe it'll never happen.
But a low-grade war is still a disaster
for the streets of Hormuz,
for the closure of the Straits of Hormuz,
for continued missiles being fired
of tit-for-tat escalation
between the Israelis and the Iranians,
of American service members,
of all the GCC countries.
So let's not pretend like this is over right now.
No.
I mean, this morning, I was looking in reading an oil analyst who said,
if the war ends today, like fully ends today, four months still of disruption,
four months in the oil markets, from lost production, seven months to get the Katari-Ras-Lafan
facility back online to a limited capacity.
Remember, they had extensive damage, which will take multiple years to repair billions of dollars
to have to be reinvested.
And there is a mismatch of global tankers right now where a lot of tankers who traditionally
would be transiting are now actually coming to the United States to pick up oil.
from here or LNG and then take it back over there.
So it would take months.
I mean, you know, these are huge gigantic ships
with cargo and contracts are already being canceled out until April.
So it's good.
Even if it ended today, which it's not,
this buys every week, basically,
is another month or so of disruption
from the way that he outlined it.
And his real Doomsday was another two months.
He's like another two months and it's like, that's it.
Well, think about two, a few things.
Number one, I mean, just ask yourself as a straight of poor moves opening any time soon.
Right, no.
No.
The Iranians are not opening the straight of poor moves, which is what the original threat from Trump was all about, which, you know, that whole problem is just created exclusively, obviously, obviously, by this war that we chose to start.
So, you know, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the war continues on and it continues to be devastating for everybody in the world, the global economy.
Developing world, I was already saying, you know, in India, a bunch of restaurants have had to close because they don't have to.
gas to cook with. People already have got long cues for exactly that kind of, you know, gas
that they use for their cooking. So you're already having huge global repercussions. Obviously,
you're seeing the repercussions at the gas pump. So, you know, that is extraordinarily
important. The other thing I was thinking about, Sagar, is think about Trump's timeline here.
Okay, so he announces this right before markets open on Monday. And he's like, five days
of a ceasefire. Well, guess what that puts us at? Market close on Friday so that he can, you know,
do whatever he's going to do next then. And so, you know, I continue to think that this is,
this is him trying to buy some time for him to make a decision on whatever is going to come next.
The Iranians do not seem like they're backing down at all. And the Israelis continue to attack.
So, you know, if he's serious about actually de-escalating and try and find some sort of an off-ramp,
claiming mission accomplished in some sort of sense, the first thing you have to do,
before you even put out your message about how, oh, we're going to give it five days,
first thing you've got to do is call if you're attack dogs in Israel.
Clearly, that did not happen.
And, you know, again, I would be very skeptical of claims that Trump,
oh, he's so mad at the Israelis for attacking the Iranian infrastructure.
I would be very skeptical about these claims.
So, you know, it's all market manipulation and game playing as far as I can tell.
Exactly. That's, you know, final, like, in terms of what we know, as of this morning,
that's what it all is.
It's all about trying to calm markets.
It's all about trying to...
I mean, if you think about it, you know, tomorrow, maybe we'll cover the TSA stuff.
The...
It genuinely feels like things are falling apart at the most basic level.
So you had the Atlanta airport this morning, say you should arrive four hours before your flight.
Trump is trying to do something about it by sending ICE agents to the airports, who, by the way, aren't trained to do anything.
And all they're literally going to do is sit there and be like, go over there, right, to a leave...
They're still wearing their masks at the airport, too, by the way.
told them not to do. Trump just put out a truth. They said, please don't wear your mask
in the airport. So you have, first of all, do you think people are going to like that?
I mean, we have a living of a very polarized country. Maybe some people will like it in MAGA country
in the rest. New York LaGuardia, don't think it's going to go over that well. So you have to
stand in a long-ass line and then look at the most politicized agency in the entire, what,
in the entire U.S. government while you directly see the consequences of a government failure
with TSA lines, while you're in the middle of an unpopular war, while,
let's say you do, let's say you get some flight credit and you cancel your flight and you want to
book in the future. Oh, sorry, your flight's actually doubled in price because jet fuel is going
for $200 a barrel. On your way home, it's going to cost more because of getting. I mean, this is like
failed state stuff. Like when you see the gas go up by a dollar, a gallon in a single month,
diesel, everything is all start to get more expensive. It just feels like you can't do anything
anymore, even just normally, right? And that's the worst possible thing. Government rarely touches you
directly in your life
so effectively.
Tens of millions of people fly
every single day in the country. Every single one of them
is going to have a story. They're going to talk about it when they go home,
post about it on social media.
Everybody's posting about gas prices now.
Everybody's got a friend in California
who's sending them a $7
gallon thing posting it on
their Instagram story. Like this is
bad for, not just for Trump,
but for real, like, any
sort of semblance
of confidence in your government.
And he really takes a long time to come back from something like this.
And that's before even mentioned, there was this deadly collision in LaGuardia.
Yes, I, oh my God, you're right this morning.
40 plus people taken to the hospital after a plane.
I'm not sure which airline it was.
Air Canada.
Air Canada that collided with a truck that was on the, you know, at the airport there.
And so, you know, and who knows whose fault that is, but we certainly seem to have a lot more of these accidents recently.
And I saw something was going on at New York Airport Air Traffic.
control too. So the whole thing is just, yeah. And we had it here in D.C. We had four of our
airports shut down because the regional air traffic control had a bad smell.
Smelled back. Look, I mean, it must have been really bad to shut it all. I mean, you can't be
shutting down air traffic in the entire. Nobody knows. Yes. Nobody knows to the day what that was.
What that was. There's smoke in Newark, Liberty. I mean, you just put all these things together.
And, yeah, like trying to make plans or trying to like function in our society today. It's nuts.
You can't fly anywhere. You don't want to drive anywhere. You want to do anything. I mean, it just really makes you feel a sense of like terrible malaise whenever you're trying to do anything. And even if you're trying to buy a house right now, you're like, whoa, I thought the mortgage rate was come down. Oops, back up to 7%. Anybody who's trying to do anything has been directly affected in the last couple of months by this exact crisis. That is the worst possible thing for you. Again, as Joe Biden found out, the very, very hard way. Never came back from it. And I don't know if anybody in this administration's,
ever coming back from this nightmare now so far.
So there you go.
As we said, we're very sorry to miss Mr. Wilkison.
We'll be happy to get him back here on the show whenever we can.
We've had a few things.
Daylight savings has been a major problem for some of our...
I promised I wouldn't make it into a big thing out of respect for the war,
but it's starting to grate on me how things are going.
Anyways, we're about to do our AMA, so we'll see you all later.
Thank you all so much for watching.
Ready for a different take on Formula One?
Look no further than No Grip.
a new podcast tackling the culture of motor racing's most coveted series.
Join me, Lily Herman, as we dive into the under-explored pockets of F1,
including the story of the woman who last participated in a Formula One race weekend,
the recent uptick in F1 romance novels,
and plenty of mishap scandals and sagas that have made Formula One
a delightful, decadent dumpster fire for more than 75 years.
Listen to No Grip on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl.
This podcast is all about going deeper with the women's shaping culture right now.
Yes, we will talk about the style and the success,
but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work behind it all.
As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated.
So you have to work extra hard in a way that doesn't compromise who you are in your integrity.
You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja.
Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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