Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 4/1/26: Russia Breaks Cuba Blockade, Kristi Noem Husband Scandal, Fmr CIA On Trump Bungling Iran War

Episode Date: April 1, 2026

Ryan and Emily discuss Russia breaks Cuba blockade, Fmr CIA on Trump bungling Iran.   Robert Pape: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Brace Belden: https://x.com/TrueAnonPod Robert Baer: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B001IQZM0I      To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election. And we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free,

and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. A Russian oil tanker is being allowed by the United States to dock in Cuba, President Donald Trump said over the weekend, making this the first shipment of oil to the government since early January. It will take about a month to refine and distribute the fuel, and it's estimated to account for roughly,

a one-month supply. It's unclear if Trump has ended the oil blockade or simply allowed this ship to come in. But the effect of it has been devastating to the island. Cuba's health care system continues to face extreme hardship amid the U.S. oil blockade. So I was recently able to tour two hospitals in Havana in the midst of nationwide energy blackouts. In the footage here, you'll see a journalist colleague of mine, Liz Oliva Fernandez, a Cuban reporter based in Havanaugh for the independent news organization, Belly of the Beast. She helps set up these visits, and if you're interested in news from Cuba, check out their newsletter at Belly of the Beastcuba.com. Now, Cuba has long been known for its focus on health care and education, and until recently,

its health outcomes mirrored or exceeded those of developed countries. In 2015, President Obama declared the decades of embargo a failure and moved to normalize relations with Cuba. with Trump in office, not only did we revert to the old policy, Trump severely tightened it. In 2019, he implemented new sanctions, making it harder for banks to do business with Cuba, harder for tourists to visit, and allowed Americans to sue based on claims from the 1960s. Just before leaving office, Trump added Cuba to the state sponsors of terrorism lists, which made it that much harder for them to do business with anybody or access credit. President Biden then left the designation on through nearly his entire four years, tightening the noose even during COVID.

Now, the night before we visited William Solair Pediatric Hospital, the entire island was plunged at 7.30 p.m. into a blackout. The hospital had a generator, which takes a little time to kick in. Now, at 5.30 a.m. the next morning, power was restored to the hospital, thankfully, before the generator had run out of fuel. We spent a few hours with nurses, doctors, their patients, and their parents. So this is a depressing segment, but stick around for the end because I promise it gets better. We'll be joined in a bit by Fernandez, the reporter you saw there, and by Brace Belden, co-host of the Truenonon podcast, who joined us for the hospital visit. You won't want to miss the update to this saga that he'll have to offer. So we met with anesthesiologist Altheo Fernandez.

So this here, this is my footage, which is not as good as the footage you're going to see from the Cuban videographers that were with us. This is a baby named Eric. And Dr. Fernandez is describing for us how when the power goes off, they have to kind of rush to the babies who are on these ventilators, lift up that little device there, reach in and kind of hand pump things until the generator power kicks in. and they can get the machines up and working because, you know, you can't, you don't just kind of pump oxygen. You have to, you know, be, you have to be kind of, you know, calibrated about how you do it. Too much is not good. Too little is too little, obviously, not good either. So let's roll a little bit of the footage from the trip that Brace Liz and I made. So here is, here's Liz, talking to a nurse at the hospital asking, you know, in those,

in those five or seven minutes between the time when the power goes out and the generator comes on, you know, what are you thinking? And the nurse is saying, and I'll post these on Twitter so people can watch them in full and listen to them in Spanish. She's saying, even when we don't have babies on ventilators, we react instinctively. We're like, oh, my God. We have to rush to the babies, and then they realize sometimes, oh, there's no ventilators currently. And now here's Dr. Fernandez saying that two years ago that when they lost power, the generator did not kick in. And they were operating on a five-year-old boy. And he says, we happen to be with an Australian doctor at the time. And so they pull out their phones. And he said the Australian doctor is just absolutely freaking out,

because this is not the kind of thing that Western developed country surgeons. Surgeons are the biggest cowboys on the planet. Turn off the lights on them. A lot of that confidence goes right out the window. So what he says here is that there was a operating room in a facility nearby that did have light and power. And so they took this five-year-old boy, covered him up, and then we moved him to this other operating room. And he's describing how difficult that makes him. And he's describing how, how difficult that makes him, he's the anesthesiologist, how's he going to, how's he going to monitor, it's already extremely harrowing to do anesthesiology for a five-year-old in the best of conditions. Now you're unplugging him, moving him, but they had no choice. He also said it, you know,

massively increases the risk of infection and sepsis and on and on. What he's, what he's saying here, And while you're doing all this, you know, you're under your own personal stress of living like every other Cuban lives, which is, you know, very little capacity to, you know, get food, electricity and such yourself. And so let's start now. Because we have one more clip that we want to get to. But first, I wanted to bring in Lizzie Leva Fernandez from Belly of the Beast and Brace Bell. from Truonan. Liz, Brace, you know, thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you. Good to see you all again. Nice to see you too. So, yeah, so the day before we had gone to a separate hospital and met with another physician who described, you know, how they had previously bought this, like, 3D printer from a German company to try to make the kind of unique medical devices

that they were unable to import from one of them was like an $80 screw that he described. Another is like, you know, if you're going to do a jaw surgery, removing a tumor from somebody's jaw, you have to then replace the jaw. And described how the sanctions and the terror designation made it such that even though they were able to buy the 3D printer in the brief window of kind of normalization, then when they reached out to try to get spare parts for it and a tech to come out, the German company. He said, nope, forget about it. So then the next day, Sunday, we went to this pediatric hospital. It's, you know, under the best of conditions, it's always devastating emotionally to

visit a pediatric unit. But, but Liz, I wanted to get your, get your reaction to, you know, what we saw in the, in the two separate wings of this pediatric unit, and compared to how things have been, you know, over the last five years as things have really tightened. And then previously during the kind of liberalizing period where Cuba was actually allowed to trade with the rest of the world. Well, for me, it's really devastating. I think like before I start this journey with belly of the bees and start to go deep inside of the sanctions, I'm a given journalist. So I suppose to be no more dissensions that I did in the past because I grew up talking about, oh, they blockade this, the blockade stop Cuba to have this,

but it looks like it's so metaphoric. It's like it's everything but it's nothing. You can touch it. It's barely tangible. And then working with belly of the bees and looking inside of the impact of the essentials on the Cuban people and you see these cases, that's everything that changed completely your mind

because I think that's the first step to understand how the Sanchez is affecting the Cuban people because if you say, oh, the Sanchez is affecting Cuba but then you say it's affecting this baby to have access to the medication or it's affecting this family that are struggling to get the surgery for his kid that Cuba used to practice in a day basis but then from a day to another they stop to doing

because they run out of resources. If you talk to doctors in Cuba and Kavana, everyone's going to say, oh, the things start to go worse after the COVID pandemic. But of course, because in 2019, the United States government, that was the Donald Trump First administration, start to implement new sanctions and screw the tools to the Cuban government to try to suffocate the country in general. So I remember in 2019, September was the started the oil, the blockade that started to sanctions oil tankers that were coming to Cuba to bring oil. That was the beginning of all these journeys. It wasn't just January, 2006. And in May, they also started to do like tourism.

So everything started to stop in Cuba. And you can see the impact from a day or another one, but you see that it's getting worse and worse. And I feel bad because I don't know what is the moment that this is started to go in better again. Right. Right. And so Brace, we bring you in for a second. So when we went to the hospital on that Sunday morning, we first went to the neonatal unit.

But speaking of shortages, they had so few gowns. that only Liz and I, and if you notice in that some of that footage, Liz and I are in there, because they didn't have enough gowns for you and your producer, Stephen, to join us. But then as we were kind of in the neonatal unit, they found a couple more. And so when we went to the more adolescent unit, you were able to join us. You talk a little bit about, you know, what your reaction was to seeing that adolescent. lesson unit. Man, yeah, like you were saying, I don't think it's ever pleasant to visit a,

a pediatric unit anywhere. But this was, it was, it was, it was, it was very difficult to go in there because, and first of all, they had a kind of amazing nurse to patient ratio. It looked like there was about two nurses in every room. But the thing that we heard from everybody that we talked to is they just didn't have basic things that you would consider, like the building blocks of trying to get somebody better. So like, for instance, if you're sick in there with an infection, they might have some antibiotics, but they might not exactly have the antibiotics that you need, but you need some

antibiotics, so you'll take these ones. You know, the Cubans are sort of admired, I think, by Americans for their improvisation. But the thing is, they should have to improvise. Like, you should be able to get, you know, tubes and bedpans and bags for medication and the medication itself, but they can't. And so the first thing that I noticed is, with it, it seemed well-staffed and it seemed staffed by very competent people, but they didn't have very basic tools. And, you know, from what I was understanding, this is like, we're the best hospital in Havana, which means really the best in Cuba. And I just kept thinking, like, wow, they don't have that stuff here. They really don't have anything anywhere, like in the provinces.

And on that note, let's go ahead and roll this clip. This is going to be a VO. I want to get all three of your reaction to this posted on Monday. The Russia breaking of the blockade. We have a Russian tanker carrying 100,000 tons of crude oil that arrived in Cuba. So you can see a little bit of this on the screen if you're watching a massive tanker pulling up to the port in Havana. So having seen what you saw just, what a week and a half ago now, what expectations do we have about how, Ryan, maybe I'll just start with you, this will change the situation on the ground? Well, it's a I think it's a lifeline, but, you know, it remains to be seen how quickly it can be distributed. Liz, I'm curious. When do people expect that some of the shortages might be lifted as a result of this and for how long?

Well, actually, I think that, of course, as you said, that this is a good news, but that's not the solution. The solution is just Cuba being able to trade and to buy oil, whatever. we don't need to go so far until Russia. It's just part of way. We just can buy it in Venezuela, United States. So I don't follow, like, actually what is the goal? Because at the beginning they say, well, we're going to, like, terminate the country. We don't care about nothing.

We are going in and we're going to destroy everything. And then Trump say, okay, we are going to allow this, the Russian oil tanker to go in and whatever it wants. but it's unclear what is this going to work. And also it's like, why we need to ask the United States permission to do like a normal trade with the rest of the world? Why they need to threat countries like Mexico don't sell oil to Cuba. This is crazy. And also, the situation that we have now

is not just because the lack of fuel or oil is going beyond that. It's like Cuba has been stopped to have the capacity to buy raw materials that we need to produce the medications that we need inside of Cuba. We need to think about that Cuba is a country that used to produce the 60% of the medications that we consume inside of Cuba. And nowadays, no, you go to a drug store empty. You go to a hospital. They don't have IVs for patients. They don't have saronges. They don't have truckers.

Like, this is crazy. We are talking in a country that is able to create medication for lung cancer. That is actually effective. We are talking about a country that is actually... Yeah, so, and we lost you for a second, which is, I think, indicative of the difficult kind of Internet and electrical situation there. So, you know, as we continued through, as we continued through this adolescent ward of the intensive care unit, we met a boy named Carlos. And I want to talk to him, talk about him briefly. And we met his mom, Omni Ellis, who was in the room with him.

Her dad, his dad was with him as well. So let's roll this, let's roll this next clip. And then want to talk about where you've gone. So this is his father. talking about a child here. So Carlos has cystic fibrosis, which is why he's on the ventilator here, which is people know this is a degenerative lung condition,

that if you have, and Brice knows more about this, if you have the right kind, you never have the right kind, but if you have a certain kind of cystic fibrosis, there is medication for it called triccafta, that is extraordinarily effective. And so the parents had, you know, understand that this medication is what the boy needs to be able to survive. In this, in this, he lives about an hour and a half outside of Havana.

He'd been brought to this hospital. He's been given palliative care here, which effectively means they're doing the best for they can, doing the best they can for him to make him as comfortable as he can as he can as he withers and dies. He was down to 44 pounds when we met him last Sunday. But a boy that was still full of life and a full life ahead of him if he could just get this treatment, which his parents know exists in the past, as Dr. Fernandez had said, medication that isn't produced in Cuba, they would buy it and import it. But they're just completely out of hard dollars at this point.

from the, you know, 2019 tightening of the economy around them. And so this is where we bring Brace in. So Brace, you were familiar with this condition. How? So cystic fibrosis is basically the only condition that I'm really familiar with. Because when I moved into the apartment that I live in now, my neighbors across the street had a little boy. I think it was like, I think it was four at the time.

And, uh, and my office is right next to the, I guess the hallway or like, whatever, the foyer, whatever, the place between our apartments. And I would always hear him coughing and he'd be coughing like an old ass man, like very loud, very deep costs. This boy was doing too. Yeah. Exactly. And so I was like, what's wrong with a kid?

And they're like, oh, you're cystic fibrosis, which I didn't, I knew that it existed, but I didn't really know about it. And, uh, and they're like, yeah, like, you know, it's sort of a shorter life expectancy. see. And then I just sort of blew my mind. I was like, this kid's going to die. So I learned a bunch about it. And, you know, I became friends with my neighbors. I hung on with a kid with the parents a lot. And then a couple years after moving in, there was a new medication that came out. Or they had told me about it before, but it became available called Trikafta. And they were like, this is, they had a party once he got prescribed it. You know, like it was a giant big neighborhood

thing. And then he just became basically within like a. month, a normal kid, like running around, lets himself into my apartment frequently, plays with picks up knives that I didn't even know I had, runs around, chases his sister with them. But he's like a normal, very like energetic kid, whereas prior to that, he had been just like always sick, always home from school, kind of underweight and just coughing all the time. And, you know, cystic fibrosis is a, yeah, I'm not an expert, but from what I understand, And essentially your body just gets filled with mucus. And it's not just your lungs, it's other organs.

You know, you mentioned that Carlos was 44 pounds, which is quite low for a nine-year-old boy. It's because your body can't really absorb nutrition because mucus is literally clogging your organs. And so a lot of what happens is people die essentially because repeated lung infections and then either just like the closing of the airways, like you really, you literally choke death on your own mucus. And this horrible scarring. And with Trikafta, it's kind of a miracle drug. I'm not really sure how it works.

But again, I'm not a doctor or anything. But it essentially, it really clears out a lot of the mucus. It's a very thick mucus. It clears it out. And you have to keep taking it. But it can extend the life expectancy from anywhere. I mean, people with cystic fibrosis can die in their teens or maybe their 40s at the latest.

It appears now, I mean, it hasn't been around long enough, that you can actually have a normal lifespan with them. So it really is like the difference between, I mean, life and death for people. And so the parents were well aware of this. The medical staff was where that he needed this. So what, so how did, so did you talk to your neighbor when you got home? Like, what was the, what was the upshot there? Well, yeah.

Well, so she was. showing us those boxes of tri-cafta. And I was like, I know what that is. Like, I'm like, I know that medication. And I, I mean, I, it sucked being in that room. It, I got to tell you. I mean, not to be whatever. I know this isn't exactly the question you asked, but I was just like, I, you know,

I talked to a lot of people. I've been in a lot of bad situations, I guess throughout my life. And this was like the first time where I was just like, I was just crying in there. Because I'm like, dude, this kid is dying. and if he had been born a hundred miles from here, he'd be just fine, you know, and, you know, addicted to Minecraft or whatever. And I was just like, Jesus Christ.

And so that, I mean, the whole, the whole, I was in a pretty sort of down mood the entire time, but that really sort of spun me out. And so when I was able to get back to the U.S. the next day, I called my neighbor. I'm like, dude, this sucks. And he was like, well, our, we actually, we have a bunch of tri-cats.

after. And because their kid is aging out of this certain dose that he's on and actually his weight is increasing too much. And they're like, we have like a bunch of boxes of it. And so I went crazy and through Reed from Belly the Beast and through a bunch of people's help, I was able to get those boxes down to Havana. I guess I got back on Monday and they were in Havana. on Thursday, which is good. They're at the hospital. But the thing is, too, though, the kid is, and they're working. Parents sent an update yesterday.

The meds are working. And the kid is, I mean, again, he was in palliative care, which means he's going to die. And with the meds, he's able to, and he was on this breathing thing that I think is probably in the videos. Yeah. And, you know, it's because he has this tube in his lung, his lung is basically collapsed. But they can't really do surgery because it's filled with his mucus. It's a horrible situation.

especially a nine-year-old boy. And with this, they should be able to either operate or clear it out. There he is. Yeah, there he is. Spider-Man PJs. Which I got to say, he even looks in this a lot better than what we saw. Yeah. Because he looked like a drawing of a sick kid.

Like his eyes are all shallow. He's on a thing. You know, he's got this, he's got like a basically a cup in front of him that he's like, he has to expector it into. And the coughs that this kid was doing, We were there for one of his coffee attacks. It's like, you cannot imagine a child making that sound. Like, that is what is so, I guess, I kind of have, I guess what you might call a manic episode.

After I got back, because I was like, I can't, this is fucking insane. But it's crazy because there's only like 150,000 doses or excuse me, doses diagnosed cases of cystic fibrosis. I think worldwide, there's more people with it, but who are officially diagnosed with it. I think there's maybe about 40,000 in the United States. And I'm like, Jesus Christ, what a coincidence. My neighbor's kid has that. And they have this exact medication. And so I was like, well, you know, what are you going to do?

You got to get this down there. But the problem is, and this is a thing. So he's going to need, I think, longer term care, which is possible. All of the stuff that I'm going to strive is possible. And it was possible until recent history for Cuban doctors at that very hospital to do. But because of the blockade, like the scarring in his lungs, his pancreas, I think, isn't working so hot. All of those things that would be treatable are not as treatable or treatable maybe at all

because of the U.S. sanctions and the U.S. blockade tightening in place since 2019, but of course since the beginning of the embargo. And so this was a direct thing when we were standing in that room and we're watching this child die. And you can't help but think, my government, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, this is the intended result of this. And I was talking to nurses there and I was talking to dog. I talked to everybody I talked to in Cuba. My basic question was, how do you get to work in the morning?

There's no, there's no fuel. You might, you know, Havana is a regular city. It's a normal city. I think this is people maybe exoticized Cuba a little bit. This shit's 90 miles of Key West, Jimmy Buffett. This is like a, people take the bus to work. People have cars. People do these things.

If you're a nurse taking care of this kid, you don't know if you're, you're going to be able to get there in the morning because maybe there's no bus. There probably isn't a bus. And so this is all these cascading effects to where that end up with this child not being able to get care, let alone the medicine, because of not only the vicious blockade that Trump and Rubio put in, but also this new oil blockade. And so this is like, you know, you're standing there, man. And I know it affected you too.

and you're just looking at this kid dying and his parents, the desperation that was coming off of his parents, and I don't mean to diminish them in any way. I think it's the desperation that anybody with a child or even without a child would feel in this situation. You're like, I can't. There is something out there that will save my child, that will let him live as close to a normal life as he can.

But I'm being prevented from getting it because of rules put in place by a, billionaire real estate developer from New York and one of the most... South Florida. Yeah, one of the nastiest Miami Cubans there is. And for a very deliberate and precise strategic purpose. Like that's what I want to underline here, backing up what Liz was saying earlier. The goal here of hurting regular Cubans, like the goal of killing Carlos rather than allowing him to live is to make his...

is family that survives angry at the government so that they then go into the streets and overthrow the Cuban government and replace them with a government made up of people from Miami that we believe is a better government, let, let, to be the most generous that we believe is a better government. That's favorable to the government

that created the conditions that hurt your son. Right, so the, the specific, There is a purpose to making it so that Carlos dies. And it's to make people angry. And it is. And it's complicated. I think like then because again, we are talking about one of the main hospital, pediatric hospitals in Havana with half the best care.

Can you imagine this? Right. In the place they just batanzas or Barakua, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, like for their province, countryside, rural areas. There are more carlors over there, but with other diseases that are able to be fixed in this 21st century. And it's crazy that they can have the medications that they need. I think like the most of the people are angry in Cuba, but the most, I think like the general feeling is frustration.

It's frustration because why we need to deserve it under this condition. And I think like the doctor Alios is something that is stuck with me. It's like, and he put it the example of the 100 bucks. It's like if a country only have 100 bucks, they need to be sure that they can help in the most of the people, the majority of the people with this only 100 bucks. And Carlos and other kids and other teenagers and other mother fathers, there are other people that have also specific disease that the Cuban government used to buy medication just for them. And now they just stand.

They need to do triage. Okay, we need this specific amount of money. Who we are going to save with this? So sadly, Carlos can't get into the list because, as Bray said, it's just a few number of people that have the disease. So this is crazy. So people get sad, get frustrated, get angry, but it's frustration because, okay, this is the medical side, but then the doctors and the nurses have to come back home to don't have electricity. So blackout, so they don't have gas so they can cook. So they don't have anything.

They don't have running water because there is not electricity, of course, to pump in the water. So this is the same people who needs to be focused the other day and needs to be rest to save other children's and other families life. This is crazy and they need to go through all this. And they say, why? Who is the responsible for this? I can't think about the U.S. government. I can't blame with them because they are too far away from us.

They are too far away from our life. We need to blame our own government. because they need to give an answer. They need to do something to change this situation. They're the ones you're interacting with on a day-to-day basis. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Right.

So we're going to, we'll keep up with this. And, you know, I'm so grateful to everyone who was able to, like, come together and get Carlos this medication that absolutely should not have to come to this. And kind of the relief on the face of his. mother and father kind of spells out to me the depravity of denying it. He'll probably, you were saying, need to go to the country of Columbia to get some treatment, which is possible. And we're going to, we'll, you know, but we'll keep up with this. But ultimately, what the country needs is just to be able to do normal business and trade. But thank you, Brace, co-host of the

true non podcast, Liz, with Valley of the Beast. Thank you so much. much for everything you're doing and for being here. You know Roll Doll, the writer who thought up Willie Wonka, Matilda, and the BFG. But did you know he was also a spy? Was this before he wrote his stories? It must have been. Our new podcast series, The Secret World of Roll Doll, is a wild journey through the hidden chapters of his extraordinary, controversial life.

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Listen to the secret world of Roll Dahl on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Why hasn't a woman formerly participated in a Formula One race weekend in over a decade? Think about how many skills they have to develop at such a young age? What can we learn from all of the new F1 romance novels suddenly popping up every year? He still smelled of podium champagne and expensive friction. And how did a 2023 event called Wagageddon change the pretext? paddock forever. That day is just seared into my memory. I'm

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Experts are suggesting that UCLA is the number one challenger to Yukon, and that right after that would be Texas. S&C is so deep and so thick and just about everything. It really is annoying. So it's UCLA, Texas, South Carolina, LSU. Only ones that could possibly upset Yukon. On Flagrant and Funny, we're giving our unfiltered takes on the biggest moments of the conversations everyone's having.

So whether your bracket is busted or you just want the latest on the tournament, we got you. Listen to Flakron and Funny with Carrie Champion and Jamel Hill on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. The Daily Mail dropped a midday bombshell yesterday, revealing we can put up on the screen,

that Christy Noem's longtime husband, I think they've been married for 34 years, her high school sweetheart, was reading what the, was leading what the Daily Mail described as a, quote, secret double life. The rest of the headline is, Nome's cross-dressing husband Brian, the pouting busty bimbo photos, and trove of explicit messages. Trove is not an understatement. The Daily Mail has its hand on all kinds of screenshots showing what appears to be a very clear fetish for Chrissy Noem's husband. Again, this seems to have been happening while she was the Secretary of the Homeland Security Department who is putting balloons up his shirt, sending pictures of himself with like cartoonishly large breasts.

to women who apparently he was also into having cartoonishly large breasts. He was paying them money, I mean, up to potentially $25,000. And this is all coming out now. Christy Noam... What's he do? Where does he get his money? He's an insurance guy. That's his background. So Christy Noem responds yesterday after the Daily Mail drops this in the middle of the day.

Quote, Miss Noam is devastated. This is her camp's response. The family was blindsided by this, and they asked for privacy and prayers at the time. That's what her representatives told the New York Post. Now, Trump also reacted to this, going to skip ahead to E5. He told the Daily Mail, wow, well, I feel badly for the family. If that's the case, that's too bad. Why does it matter that Trump and Christy Nome responded in this particular way?

Well, it's interesting because as salacious as the story is, This is the Homeland Security Secretary who was clearly vulnerable to blackmail on an enormous scale when these pictures are being sent with her husband's face in them. It's not as though he was trying to hide himself, hide his face. Some of the women he interacted with, apparently he was paying and interacting with, said that they figured out who he was. They talked to him about it. They asked him. One of them said she asked him about Corey Lewandowski and his wife having an affair. and he said, well, there's nothing that I can do about it.

So if Trump and Nome had no idea about this. Wait, one of the sex workers he was engaging with was like... E4. Did you see this? No. Mark Caputo reported how he got a tip. So Mark Caputo is the Trump White House reporter over at Axios. He's in Florida. He said, quote, yeah, I got a weird lead.

A source texted me February 13th. They said, an immigrant sex worker, possibly in the country, illegally, wanted to go public about Noam's husband using her services online. It was vengeance for DHS's immigration enforcement. I couldn't land the interview. Caputo posts a screenshot of his back and forth with that source. He says, sharing because folks sometimes wonder how reporting works. Here, I would have needed to talk to the accuser and verify the info the way the mail did.

When we use anonymous sources, they're credible. Sometimes it means someone else gets the story. For what it's worth, I understand. yet another media outlet have been shown these pictures last year, but declined to run them. A woman then quote tweets another post, and Caputo points to it saying, when this news broke, I recognized him, referring to Brian Nome, as one of my clients, because I have never seen a, quote, sissy sub have bigger knockers than him. But where is it, where do they say that the sex worker asked him about the affair between Lewandowski and that's in the Daily Mail story?

That's in the Daily Mail story. I got it. I thought I'd seen that somewhere. Yeah. So that's the other thing. Yes, you could blackmail her over this. You could also blackmail her over this, like, widely discussed years-long affair with this, like, de facto chief of staff or maybe, like, whatever you want to call Corey Lewandowski.

Why is she even still married? Like, just, she's clear, like, follow your heart with Corey. It's all very weird. And Corey's married to a 9-11. Evan Widow, by the way. It's just a really gross and sad situation, and they've been publicly cheating on their spouses at GOP events for years now. Everyone knows about it. Trump apparently thinks it's hilarious, but that's the reporting from behind closed doors. I think the Daily Mail has also gotten out reporting. It might have been in the New York Post. But either way,

Ryan, the national security implications of this are not, like, it's not insane to be like, Did you have any idea? I mean, now they're saying they're totally blindsided by this. Trump claims to have just learned this from a daily mail reporter. I mean, that's the implication of Trump's reaction. I don't know that that. I mean, it seems almost impossible for the DHS secretary's husband to be sending pictures of himself like this and to have it not be known. It looks like from the screenshots it's on WhatsApp, it seems really wild that that wasn't known at all by his wife or at all by the government. Well, it's only a national security issue if you think that the Department of Homeland Security has anything to do with actually securing the homeland. Yes, yeah. And I've seen no evidence of that.

They do a lot of things. None of them seem dedicated to that mission. Yeah, well, they have powers. Yes, and she has a lot of horses that she can ride around in those, like, $150 million ad campaign videos. Yeah, it's pretty interesting that this is coming out after she leaves DHS. I know why it took took this uh it took this uh source a while to get it published but absolutely wild story um what's going to happen to the shield of the americas because isn't that what she's in charge of now she's the special envoy for central and south america which is amazing

because um i think central and south america take their traditional morality a little bit more seriously apparently than our traditional moralists here in north america um so that'll be That'll be interesting to see how they react to this sheriff and Lewandowski going around. I mean, it could be another problem for, the stories of corruption that have surrounded Christy Knoem over, I would say, like, the last five plus years, roughly the last five plus years of her career are, it's constant. And that's usually where there's smoke, there's fire type of situation. Like, it's every several months, it's like there's a possible corruption story coming out of Nome's orbit. connections that contracts are going to people who are politically connected, personally connected. It's V meets righteous gemstones.

Yes, that's really well said. Oh my gosh, that's very good. And so it's not, it wouldn't surprise me if there's more reporting that comes out, suggesting that in recent weeks this was known to the Nob family and the government. obviously if reporters are sniffing around. That wasn't getting back to the Homeland Security Secretary. I mean, she was just replaced last week. She should have just said, as everybody knows, we have an open marriage.

That would have been much more. Leave us alone. Would have been much more. Okay, cool. Yes. Right, and should we move on to Bob Bear? Let's do it. You know, Roaldol, the writer who thought up Willie Wonka, Matilda, and the BFG.

But did you know he was also a spy? Was this before? He wrote his story. I must have been. Our new podcast series, The Secret World of Roll Doll, is a wild journey through the hidden chapters

of his extraordinary, controversial life. His job was literally to seduce the wives of powerful Americans. What? And he was really good at it. You probably won't believe it either.

Okay, I don't think that's true. I'm telling you. I was a spy. Did you know Dahl got cozy with the Roosevelt's? Played poker with Harry Truman and had a long affair with a congresswoman.

And then he took his talents to Hollywood where he worked alongside Walt Disney and Alfred Hitchcock before writing a hit James Bond film. How did this secret agent wind up as the most successful children's author ever? And what darkness from his covert past seeped into the stories we read as kids. The true story is stranger than anything he ever wrote. Listen to the secret world of Roll Dahl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Why hasn't a woman formally participated in a Formula One race weekend in over a decade?

Think about how many skills they have to develop at such a young age. What can we learn from all of the new F1 romance novels suddenly popping up every year? He still smelled of podium champagne and expensive friction. And how did a 2023 event called Wagageddon change the paddock forever? That day is just seared into my memory. I'm culture writer and F1 expert Lily Herman, and these are just a few of the questions I'm tackling on no grip. a Formula One culture podcast that dives into the under-explored pockets of the sport.

In each episode, a different guests and I will go deeper into the wacky mishap, scandals and sagas, both on the track and far away from it that have made F1 a delightful, decadent dumpster fire for more than 75 years. Listen to No Grip on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lori Siegel, a longtime tech journalist. And consider my new podcast, mostly human, your bridge to the future. Anyone can now be an entrepreneur, anyone can build an app, and it's very empowering. Each week, I'll speak to the people building that future, and we're going to break down what all of this innovation actually means for you. What I come to realize is that when people think that they're dating these AI companion, they're actually dating the companies that create this.

We're experiencing one of the greatest tech accelerations in human history, and let's be honest, that can be messy. There's no playbook for what to do when an AI model hallucinates a story about you. But it's my belief that we should all benefit from this moment. Mostly Human will show you how. My goal is to give you the playbook, so you can benefit. The reason I say agency is because if we can give power back to people, then I think that's probably the best thing we can do for your mental health. Listen to Mostly Human on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. All right, joining us next is Robert Baer, former CIA case officer of more than 20 years, turned author and political commentator. Emily, we pre-taped this interview yesterday. He said he doesn't actually get up in the morning, which, okay, good for you. Nothing but respect for that. Nothing but absolutely. My dream. Yes, I aspire to that.

And so Bear is a highly respected kind of CIA. case officer who is unusual in the sense that he knows of what he speaks in the sense that like he's been all over the world he's been an undercover officer like he we talked about earlier on the show um he he was made famous for a little while because they tried to u.s i believe like tried to prosecute him for attempting to assassinate saddam hussein and his defense effective it turned out was i was doing this on behalf of the cia like don't you understand what it's the CIA. Don't you know what the CIA does? Wasn't Siriana also roughly

based on him? Yes, that's correct. One of his books was turned into Syriana and the George Clooney character is modeled after Robert Baer. Now, and so he has

he's kind of like the best that the CIA has to offer in the sense of trying to understand our adversaries. particularly. But that doesn't, and I think I want people to understand that, Ron, and Iran particularly, but I want people to think about that. As he mentions in our interview, he's only been there a little bit.

And his understanding of Iran is surface deep, which he would acknowledge. Yep. And yet he knows it better than most of the rest of the CIA. The major thing I took away from the interview is just how screwed the CIA is and our intelligence community. Our intelligence, yeah. that, wow, like, they're, they've, they're just operating based on caricatures and, like, what they read and, like, the propaganda outlets that we finance. Is it dark literally and metaphorically? Yeah. Yeah.

So we thought it would be, he hasn't done many interviews over the last many months, but he agreed to come on the show. And we thought, does not mean any of us agree with everything he said or remotely. So interesting. remotely. But it was. Believe that. But interesting to hear where he thinks this is going.

Not well for the United States. Yeah. Put it that way. And he just, he talks about the Samson option multiple times, which is also the name of a Seymour Hirsch book, which is a reference to this purported Israeli strategy that they would rather basically nuke the world than lose a war. And so that was, that's not what you. you want to hear? It's really not. No. Nor is his speculation, informed speculation, of course,

about where the intelligence is likely coming from and how we're, I think this was the most interesting part of the interview from my perspective is how we're making the decisions that we're making. How are those being informed? What intelligence is informing them and how are we gathering that intelligence? So if anyone would know, it would be him. And CIA folks, even former CIA folks are limited, what they can say, obviously, and are sometimes, you know, still freelancing. Yeah, but to hear a CIA, former CIA, well, no such thing as they say, former CIA official openly discussing the Samson option, which again, he brought it up. He brought it up a couple times. That's, when you're watching this, if you don't, if you're not

familiar with that fairly common reference, it is the idea that Israel's nuclear strategy includes an option to use overwhelming nuclear force rather than lose something strategically, even if that means the obvious kind of annihilation of Israel. Well, let's get to it. Well, Bob, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Of course. So let's start with, from your perspective, what do you think is the thing that the U.S. and Israel, or let's start, go with the U.S., most understood or underestimated when they went into this conflict? I think it's the determination of the Iranians. I wrote a book about this, that if they were under attack, what they would do is bring down

Gulf energy supplies, which could be up to 50% of proven reserves. Now, think about that. Let's say you can take proven reserves offline for, two, three or four years, it will destroy the world's economy, as it's starting to do. And I think what they confused Tehran with Caracas. You just simply can't decapitate the Iranian regime and expect people to pour out in streets. That's not Iran.

I mean, it's so few of these people. I don't know that anybody in the administration has ever been to Iran. They don't understand who these people are. They don't understand. They're the faithful, if you like. I've spent a lot of time there, not a lot, but enough to see that, in a way, let me be politically incorrect. It's a death cult. These people, large segment, are ready to die for their beliefs.

You know, you go to the martyr cemetery in Tehran. And it's genuine. And I've spent a lot of time with the bus siege. And that's genuine. They're going to fight. We can turn the electricity off, if we like. We can destroy their desolonization facilities, all of them. We could turn the country into rubble, but they're still going to come back.

And I mean, look at the numbers. You've got 93 million people. If you destroy the economy, turn it into a fail. state and you look across the Gulf at a country like gutter, which has only got 350,000 people, who's going to defend the Arab Shakedoms? I mean, I'm not big fans of them, but who's going to defend them? Are we going to keep a fleet in the, I mean, we can't even boats in the, in the, in the, in the Gulf right now. It's too dangerous. So, but are we going to keep boats there? And then what do you do about 93 million armed, desperate people and these fragile countries around?

Again, you take off 50% of the world's oil resource. Let's a Syria-like situation where it's total chaos and mayhem. Oil is closed down. The effect it will have on the world's economy will look a lot like the Great Depression. And Emily, I'll let you jump in one second. Let me just follow up on the question of the death cult. People would rephrase that as Iran's, a lot of people in Iran see this as existential. Like, we are fighting them, you know, from Tampa, from Nebraska, from aircraft carriers that are out of range.

They are in their country, and they see this as an existential fight and are behaving rationally. I think because I think death cult suggests like a level of. Yeah. It's a bad word. Yeah. But, I mean, it was, they fought, they lost hundreds of thousand people in the war on Iraq. They were prepared to defend their nation. They have a very strong historical sense,

country that goes back 4,000 years, any number of things. And they're also looking at it is, look, they signed off on the nuclear agreement, JCPOA, and we unilaterally ripped it up. I mean, they were complying with the terms of JCPOA. The two times this administration has gone in negotiations with them, in the middle of it, they attack them.

The intent, and I think that you see this on the far right in this country, is destroy Iran for past wrongs. And that goes back to Lebanon, goes to Iraq and the rest of it. But they don't see it that way. I mean, look at the attack on Ras Lafant. It followed our attack, or the Israeli attack, on South Pars. It's they reply in kind. It's a tit for tat, and they've always done this.

And it's not a question of, you know, defending the Iranians. This is who they are. This is our enemy. And we're so bad misunderstanding our enemy, what they'll fight for and what they won't. I mean, you go back to Vietnam. We had never understood North Vietnam. Just American history. We refuse to believe that our enemies have.

grievances, whether legitimate or not. And so we are fighting their grievances. But in all fairness, let's say to the CIA, it doesn't have anybody that's been to Iran, understands the Iranians. Those people have all retired. They've gone away. Same way with State Department. Farsi speakers, very few of them.

The ones, the Iranians we know are exiles. You can never trust exiles. As Machiavelli told us, you can't trust. So it's it's it's it's it's a black box we're going into. And I cannot tell you right now who's going to give up first. It could be the Trump administration. It could be the Iranians. But we don't know.

That's the problem. I mean, what could happen in this next week is what should really worry us. Well, Bob, I wanted to pick up on that point because something interesting happened in the beginning of March where Lindsey Graham had made recent trips to Israel, came back, told the American press, Israeli intelligence would tell him things that U.S. intelligence was not telling him, which is fascinating and suggests that some information planted to Lindsey Graham is then going into Donald Trump. So what do you believe? Who is giving Donald Trump information on Iran that is basically the information he's basing his own decisions off of? What do we know about that? What can we surmise about Well, I think what's telling is that Trump yesterday said, we don't know whether

Mushtaba, the sun, is alive or dead. And that tells me we don't know much about the country. It's one thing for the Israelis to target Iranian nuclear scientists because they all have smartphones. They've got apps. You've got cameras in Tehran that can track people. You can track any cell phone. They do a brilliant job at it.

I mean, they really do. But the assembly of experts and the people who are making the decision are offline. I've spent time at KOM. These people do not do smartphones. It's very medieval. On top of that, you have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has this mosaic defense. And that's commanded,

control is not vertical. And they know what to do. And they don't need orders. They don't need communications. And they do it because they've been planning for an attack like this. For a long, you know, back to Reagan, back to the Iran-Iraq war. They've been planning for a long time. We, in the meantime, have ignored them.

And the Israelis don't understand the country. You know, I love the TV show, Tehran. But trust me, they do not have Mossad officers wandering around staff officers, Tehran. It's too dangerous. You know, when I was there, I had an Iranian ID card, and I was stopped. My group was stopped every 15 minutes. We were checked for our IDs. They're very good cards, too.

They're not reproducible. So the Iranians, I mean, the Israelis are depending on M.E.K, the resistance group, the Iranians, you know, criminals and the rest of it, but that doesn't get to the heart of the Iranian regime, which is very much res opaque to us. So if the Israelis are saying, hey, we decapitate the regime, it's a shot in the dark for them. They don't know. And I mean, the Iranians probably, Hamané wasn't even really the grand. Grand Ayatollah. He didn't have the chops for it, the dissertations and the rest of it. He wasn't

recognized as one. He was effectively the spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Now, the people making the decisions in the mosques are, you know, we don't know what they're up to. You know, we just don't. When I went to KOM, I debated a, I debated. Ayatollah. But I can tell you right now that I didn't walk away from that debate or from going to comb debating other people. It's smarter of what they would do. And my limited experience in Iran tells me how little the American government knows. You just simply cannot pick this stuff up from academic papers and the rest of it. It doesn't work that way. So the Israelis really have leaned into this assassination assassination strategy.

You're the perfect one to ask about that. You're the author of The Perfect Kill, which you've got in there, I think it's called 21 rules for assassination or something along those lines. Like, when you think about those rules and your career as a CIA case officer, how do you assess the effectiveness of kind of U.S. Israeli assassination program, Whether it's Hezbollah Hamas or now as it's rolling out in Iran. Well, when I wrote the book, it was like I write so much, so much is obvious. Had we assassinated Hitler, had he been assassinated early on in the war, we would have saved a lot of bloodshed.

But what we're seeing in Lebanon is the Israelis have assassinated, you know, the leadership of his. of all of them, people I know, Mugnia, the rest of them. But now they're in the middle of a, they're in a quagmire in southern Lebanon. Because there was a second and third tier of people that may be more effective than the people they got rid of. And I'm, you know, they assassinated Hamene, but we don't even know where their sons's alive. I mean, I could see the Iranians knowing he's dead, died in that first attack, yet carrying

on with this whole idea. of martyrdom and spirit. So I think the proofs in the pudding and assassination in terms of Iran and Hisbalah is not effective. The Israeli outcome is if there's regime change, what we know is that they're not concerned so much about utter chaos engulfing Iran. They actually see a weak Iran as a benefit to Israel, even in the long term, from public reporting and statements and the like. What can you tell us about how true that actually is? So if we take Israel's argument at face value, is it actually true that Israel is safer in the long term with Iran mired in chaos or does the factualization actually create an enormously dangerous situation, the likes of

which we haven't even seen so far? I, you know, Israel lives in a bad neighborhood. And I don't think at the end of the day, chaos on your borders is going to turn out to be profitable. I mean, it was, you know, if Oslo hit a work, they'd be better off. And now you are going to, once you destabilize, let's say Saudi Arabia, let's take a scenario that tomorrow we hit Karg Island. The next day the Iranians take out Obkake, shut off seven million barrels a day. take out water supplies, you're going to have an Arab world that's going to fall apart, including Jordan, on their border.

And what do you do with all of these people, you know, armed and you're pushing into chaos? And I'm not, that's not the best solution. Now, what destroyed any chance of a peace was 7 October, of course, which was horrific for the Israelis and they are responding to it. And this administration is still responding to it. But look, Hamas is still in place in Gaza. The West Bank is not getting any better. It's getting worse.

And Jerusalem is. And Israeli society is becoming less secular by the minute, which isn't good for, it's not good for Israelis because a lot of Israelis is just going to pick up and leave. ones that can. And you're going to have this very small state, which is ultimately indefensible if the population is cut way down and you have all this craziness on your borders. So, I mean, we are really into uncharted waters here. You don't take value of what Netanyahu's done. You just see what forces he's reacting to. And then you take the forces that the Iranians are reacting to, and you have two immovable forces here.

at loggerheads. And the entire world will pay for this. You know, I see these numbers from hedge funds in New York about what this is doing, the derivatives in the petroleum market. It's, we've yet to feel it. And there's no turning back right now. It can't be fixed. And if Iran controls Hormuz and turns it into a toll booth

and keeps Arab oil from leaving or, highly taxed, it's a new game. What's your sense of, if you listen to Trump or Hegsa, the Rubio now, the U.S. is just cleaning up and, you know, really showing them who's boss. What's your sense of who's winning this war strategically at this point? I still think it's the Sampson option. I think that if it continues, Iran will become a failed state. It'd be like Somalia or Syria.

whether ethnic problems, you know, civil war comes to this, I can't tell you. It's unknowable. So I don't think anybody's winning in this. The point is the IRGC is in place. It's calling the shots. We don't know who the second tier commanders are the third. We don't know how devoted they are. And trust me, these people, the IRGC are tough people.

I mean, they have no sense of humor. When I was in Tehran, I went and knocked on our embassy door and said, let me in. This guy comes, this officer comes out, he says, go away. You know, I didn't give up, so I pounded it again. I said, I'm an American taxpayer. Let me in. I want to see her property, and he just slammed it. They are very, very serious, as we know, and they mow people down in the street.

I just don't see them giving up. I mean, these people, people are still, they live by grievances that when the prophet's grandson was murdered. That's foremost in their lives. You know, I just don't seem giving, you know, even if we do take out car, I would imagine no one's going to dare surrender. Well, have you noticed the kind of meme war that Iran has been waging? The jokes have been asymmetrically kind of in favor so far, actually, of the Iranian government this time.

They seem to be laughing all the way to Sampson here. Oh, yeah. I mean, you know, they've been, look, here's the problem. The Iranian actors from 79 on were blamed us for the Shah. Yes, we participated in the corruption. But nothing we did do deserved our embassing being overrun. And then there are various terrorist acts that they've conducted that the military hasn't forgotten. They did the Marines in 83.

It was them, not His Bala. It was Iran who organized that. And I could go on and I could just inflame, you know, with all the attacks that we know they did. And they took the hostages. It was Iran, not His Bala. So we have our grievances, but now they're meeting, but the Iranians have this deep sense of justice and injustice, and they think that they're the receiving end of an imperial United States. They look at Israel as, you know, an imperial state, essentially run by the United States. You know that's not true.

But the way they look at it in the street is that we are. are calling the shots in Tel Aviv. It's the way they look at the world. And they say, you know, there's some sort of at the end, divine justice or it's secular too. And, you know, when I talked to the besiege about suicide bombings in the Iran-Iraq war, they said, no, you people, you have it wrong. It's not because of 72 virgins and they wear the little white keys. It's because you agree with one of your soldiers.

and dying, take out a machine gun nest in World War II. We're the same way. These people are not stupid, and they know what they're doing, and what they've been hitting the aluminum facilities in the Gulf and the rest of it, it's pinpoint strikes and damage it's going to be doing to the West. You look at the Islamic State, and they just slaughtered for slaughter's sake. The Iranians are much more focused and have a plan. What is the offer in for Trump?

Where does this, what's the best case scenario here? What's the worst case scenario? The best case scenario is he says, look, we changed the leadership. You know, everybody's been assassinated with the bad guys. We can deal with these guys and we're going to come to, he's going to declare victory and leave. That's the best solution. I don't think the Iranians are going to surrender to the demands. I don't think his ball is going to surrender.

I think that's going to keep going on. So the best is declare victory and leave. You know, we set them back 20 years in their industry and the rest of it. But on the other hand, if they control the oil coming in and out of the Gulf, anybody looking at the numbers economically, it'll look like they won. Well, Bob, thanks so much for taking some time. Really appreciate it. Of course. Well, that's going to do it for us on today's edition of Breaking Points.

Please do go to Breaking Points.com to get a premium subscription, support the independent journalism that we're doing here on the show. Help us keep getting guests like Robert Pape and Bob Bear. Also, that Cuba segment, Ryan, thank you so much for bringing this reporting back. Yeah, and if you want to support either Belly the Beast, the Cuban news organization, the U.S.-based but Cuban-powered, news organization, Cuban journalists, you can do that or the True or not podcast. We're on the cusp of 2 million YouTube subscribers, so please, please do go ahead and sub on the

YouTube channel if you haven't done so yet. We appreciate it. Crystal and Saga will be back in here tomorrow. We'll see you on Friday's edition of the show. You know Roll Doll. He thought up Willie Wonka and the BFG, but did you know he was a spy? In the new podcast, The Secret World of Roll Doll, I'll tell you that story. and much, much more. What? You probably won't believe it either. Was this before he wrote his stories?

It must have been. Okay, I don't think that's true. I'm telling you. I was a spy. Listen to the secret world of Roll Dahl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Ready for a different take on Formula One?

Look no further than No Grip, a new podcast tackling the culture of motor racing's most coveted series. Join me, Lily Herman, as we dive into the under-explored podcast, of F1, including the story of the woman who last participated in a Formula One race weekend, the recent uptick in F1 romance novels, and plenty of mishap scandals and sagas that have made Formula One a delightful, decadent dumpster fire for more than 75 years. Listen to No Grip on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lori Siegel, and on my

new podcast, Mostly Human, I'll take you to some wild corners of the tech world. I'm about to go on a date with an AI companion at a real world cafe right here in New York City. There's no playbook for what to do when an AI model hallucinates a story about you. Mostly Human is your playbook for how tech can work for you.

Anyone can now be an entrepreneur, anyone can build an app and it's very empowering. Listen to Mostly Human on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Thank you.