Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 4/15/25: Trump Floats US Citizens To El Salvador, Trump Approval Craters, China Cuts Off Boeing
Episode Date: April 15, 2025Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump floats US citizens to El Salvador, Trump approval tanks, China cuts off Boeing. To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE,... uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
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Good morning, everybody.
Happy Tuesday.
We have an amazing show for everybody today.
Extra amazing because Crystal is back.
It's good to see you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
It's good to be back here in the chair.
We have a lot of stuff in the show,
but actually before we even get to the show bar
and all the stuff that's going on there,
we have some pretty significant show announcements about things that we are up to.
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We've been calling it a mini show.
With whoever can show up, we were able to get all four of us together last Friday, which was super cool.
Sagar was able to join.
It's been me and Ryan, me and Ryan and Emily.
Whoever can sort of join.
So we have decided,
thanks to you guys' support out there making this happen, that we are going to officially make a
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We are going to be going live on a lot more occasions,
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That is something that we do after today's show that we will wrap.
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Excited about what is to come for the year for Breaking Points.
And let me tell you, I really enjoy that Friday show.
Yeah, it's fun.
I like the Friday show.
Yeah, I like it too.
It's fun.
It would be, with the pace of news,
the Monday show would be just unmanageable.
Yeah, it would just be late and it would be edited.
I mean, originally.
By turning it to Monday, all the stuff that happened on Friday,
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It's incredible. And again, it's literally all because of the people who sign up. So thank you.
There really is a thank you to enable us to be able to do this. Yeah, when the show goes out
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All right, so let me run quickly through the show bar here. We had McKellie at the White House yesterday, Trump announcing that he wants to send U.S. citizens now to McKellie's torture dungeon.
So we'll talk about that.
Trump approval rating is down.
We've got the latest numbers. He has announced he may be backing off some of the auto tariffs. At the
same time, we're getting new retaliation from China. They've halted all Boeing orders. Dave
Smith is going to join us. Don't know if you guys checked out any of his debate with Douglas Murray
on Joe Rogan's podcast. Going to get his reaction to that and some other things as well, especially some of the crackdown on any dissent vis-a-vis Israel. I am taking a look at Trump's
tariff war as class war. Sagar, what should I say about your monologue? I'll just say it's a
surprise. It's a surprise for everybody who's there. Just book recommendations. I'm joking.
I'm joking. There's something there that I'll, you can find out if you become a premium subscriber.
You will find out eventually whether you're a premium subscriber or not, but premium subscribers in that AMA Live will give you the sneak peek.
Okay, let's go ahead and get to the Oval Office yesterday. President of El Salvador, Naiba Kelly,
was in town. Obviously, this was very significant for a number of reasons. This administration has
sent somewhere around, at this point, about 250 migrants into that prison. We now know that
approximately 90% of them, in spite of being told that they were gang members in the worst of the
worst, 90% have no criminal record. We have learned some of the details of those individuals.
And one of those individuals in particular, Kilmar Abrego-Garcia, the administration admitted
that they sent him there in error. The Supreme Court then came in and said,
you got to try to get this guy back. You have to facilitate his release. They are just completely
stonewalling. They're pretending like the Supreme Court actually sided with them and said they don't
have to do anything. So a lot of questions about what the response from McKellie would be, how
Trump would interact with him, et cetera. But before any of that occurred, the two of them,
Trump and Bokele, were actually caught on a hot mic with Trump. And you have to listen carefully.
But Trump telling Bokele that next he wants to send to his prisons the quote-unquote
homegrowns and that Bokele may need to build five more of those facilities to house the U.S. citizens that Trump now wants to send
to that notorious Seacott facility. Let's take a listen to how that's me. All right.
It's not big enough.
No, yeah, yeah. Come on.
And it wasn't only in this hot mic moment.
Apparently the El Salvador press was there, but the whole pool wasn't.
I don't know where that stream came from, but they were streaming that live, and obviously we all got to see it.
It was the El Salvadorian government.
It wasn't even the El Salvadorian media.
Now, why exactly El Salvadorian government is allowed to live stream straight from the Oval Office, that's beyond me. That's probably the
tertiary amount of concerns as well as Mr. Bukele's outfit that was happening. You're absolutely right.
There were a number of comments made there by President Trump in the Oval Office,
very defiant on the Abrego Garcia case, as well as proposing on multiple occasions,
sending U.S. citizens to this prison. Let's take
a listen. Mr. President, you said that if the Supreme Court said someone needed to be returned,
that you would abide by that. You said that on Air Force One just a few days ago. And they said
that it must be facilitated. Why don't you just say, isn't it wonderful that we're keeping
criminals out of our country? Why can't you just say that? Why do you go over and over? And that's
why nobody watches you anymore.
You have no credibility.
Please go ahead.
I promise you, if he was your neighbor, you would move right away.
So you don't plan to ask for it and get it back?
But the Supreme Court is asking to...
What's the ruling in the Supreme Court, Steve?
Was it 9 to nothing?
Yes, it was a 9-0.
In our favor.
In our favor against the district court ruling
saying that no district court has the power
to compel the foreign policy function of the United States. As Pam said, the ruling solely
stated that if this individual at El Salvador's sole discretion was sent back to our country,
that we could deport him a second time. How can I smuggle a terrorist into the United States? I
don't have the power to return him to the United States. But you could release him inside of the tunnel.
Yeah, but I'm not releasing,
I mean we're not very fond of releasing terrorists
into our country.
We just turned the murder capital of the world
into the safest country in the Western hemisphere
and you want us to go back into releasing criminals
so we can go back to being the murder capital of the world?
No, that's not gonna happen.
Well, they'd love to have a criminal released into it.
I mean, there's a fascination.
They would love it.
Yeah.
They're great facilities, very strong facilities, and they don't play games.
I'd like to go a step further.
I mean, I say, I said it to Pam.
I don't know what the laws are.
We always have to obey the laws.
But we also have homegrown criminals that push people into subways.
I'd like to include them in the group of people to get them out of the country.
So you can see there, not only doubling down, but the most significant comment made from Bukele was saying, quote, I don't, what did he say?
I don't have the power to bring back Abrego Garcia.
This is where it is obviously preposterous.
Bukele is getting paid $6 million from the United States government.
Furthermore, he has literal unilateral authority over who goes in and out of SECOT. So he actually could release
him if he could. And this is one where the government and Stephen Miller is saying there,
oh, it was 9-0. I mean, he is correct in that it's 9-0 by saying that it is 9-0 in not ordering
it in the same way the district judge said you have to go get him back.
But it was very clear about the facilitation of return.
And what was it?
We turned it over to the district court where there continues to be adjudication over specifically the lengths and the process through which the United States must return Arbrego Garcia.
It is clear cut.
It is beyond obvious. The state admitted
in its court filing, Abrego Garcia should not have been sent to El Salvador, period, end of story.
We can talk all day long about the hold on the deportation order, etc., but it is clear as day.
He had a hold for deportation. He was sent there by their own admission.
It was a quote-unquote mistake.
Stephen Miller has now claimed that it was an actual mistake to admit that it was a mistake.
Right.
And that is not true.
That fired solicitor general who said that in a court filing, I was actually reading from a legal expert that he has a decent enough case for
defamation actually against the government because they're claiming that he basically
lied in a court filing. Jonathan Turley, who is a Republican, Trump sympathetic, Fox News kind of a
guy who was like, he's got a case for defamation. Yeah, the dude that they fired because he admitted
in court that this was a mistake, which also wasn't just admitted in court. It also, as Sager said, was part of this court filing. He's been there for 15 years. He served
in the same or similar role under the first Trump administration. You know, he has been a reliable
advocate for whatever the government's position has been. So, yeah, Stephen Miller called him a
saboteur. That's right. And a Democrat. And a Democrat, as if he was in there intentionally trying to blow up this case.
I just want to read for everybody because what Stephen Miller is portraying here and what Republicans are trying to portray the Supreme Court decision as is just total and complete garbage.
Let me read to you the specific language of this order that came down from the Supreme Court. They say the rest of the district
court's order remains in effect but requires clarification. That's what they're holding
their whole thing on is this line that it requires clarification. The order properly requires the
government to facilitate Abreu Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that
his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term effectuate
in the district's court order is however unclear and may exceed the district court's authority.
The district court should clarify its directive with due regard for the deference owed to the
executive branch in the conduct of foreign affairs. So they didn't even say,
don't effectuate, or that was wrong. They're saying, we want some clarification from the district court here. But they said incredibly clearly that the government needs to facilitate
the release. And they also tell the government that it needs to be prepared to share what it
can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps. The government has
completely stonewalled here. They're lying about what the order actually said. And just think about it,
like taking the legalese out of it from a human perspective. If you fuck up, you try to fix it.
That's right. This is a fuck up of massive life altering proportions. We have no idea at this
point what the condition of this man is. He's been sent into this prison known for human rights
abuses, for withholding food. We know that an extraordinary number of detainees there have
actually died while they're in custody. This is a horrible place to be that he has been wrongly
sent to. And not just him, by the way. Of the 230 original immigrants who were sent there,
as I mentioned, 90% no criminal record. Five had
felony arrest records. Five. And we were told these were the worst of the worst. So on top of all of
that, what we've been warning about is, hey, if you can throw these people into this dungeon for
life with no due process, this isn't just about what they can do to immigrants. This is about what they can do
to anyone. This is about all of our rights. What could have kept them, since their position is,
once they're in El Salvador, it's over, it's gone, we can't do anything, and McKellie's position is,
I can't do anything either. What is to keep them from sending anyone that they want? And as long
as they get the plane in the air before the court can come in and
say, you can't do that, then they can do whatever they want to people. And so when you have Trump
here, not only on the hot mic, and he had previously said, hey, maybe I'll send American
citizens there. On the hot mic telling Buckelly, next up is the homegrowns. You need to build more
facilities. And then confirmed in the questioning. And he said, he made this comment
that I wanted to get your reaction to in particular, Sagar. He said specifically in response
to a reporter asking if he would deport U.S. citizens, quote, what, you think they're a special
category of person? Yes. Right. Yeah. I mean, no. Your thoughts. What thoughts? I mean, it's just
outrageous. And I think what people need to understand is that the step-by-step that the government has taken is one that has revealed itself over the last several months.
I keep resuscitating an old Vietnam term, credibility gap. And the credibility gap is, like you said, they said that it was the worst of the worst.
Now, we know categorically now that that is just simply not true considering the overall criminal record. They also said that they were using a tattoo or whatever to identify,
which actually sounds, you know, it rings true to a lot of people.
It's very often that gangs use tattoos to do affiliation.
Go look at any prison system in the United States.
It's one of the number one ways that you do gang classification, right?
So, but again, now we have continued to see there's huge holes in the story,
and there's been a number of these people, the gay barber, for example, being one of them, where it is just like blatantly obvious that at the very least, like what they're saying is completely untrue, if not outright false.
Then you take it a step further for deportation.
Initially, it was about illegal aliens present in the United States or people who had applied
for asylum. So, okay, you know, this is one where you can't necessarily, or it would still,
I, in my opinion, still a jump from there to people who are here legally and or to our here
U.S. citizens. But the jump now, and I have spoken with multiple legal experts, is that this one in
particular is the one that most definitively applies to United States
citizens because the custody at question is specifically about what the government position
is taking, is that once they are in El Salvadorian custody, there is nothing that you can do for
them. That actually does not have any legal limitation. Alien Enemies Act, believe it or not,
actually does whenever it comes to a U.S. citizen. There are multiple other, you know, you've even
seen, for example, many of these Palestinian activist students who are getting or trying to
get deported. They're still going through a due process like, you know, deportation order. Alien
Enemies Act was definitely over here. But the specific question
here at hand legally is one that has no limiting principle whatsoever. And actually, I would point
to Ed Whalen. This is very important for people to see. A3, please. Let me just say, Ed, and I
need to contextualize Ed. Ed is one of the most conservative lawyers and legal minds here in
Washington. Ed is a guy who went to bat harder than anyone I know for Brett Kavanaugh.
That's why I'm trying to contextualize who this person is.
He's like an Antonin Scalia fan.
That's like his ideological ground.
Unless you're in the mold in the D.C. world,
you don't quite understand how important it is for Ed to speak out on something like this.
So, okay, with all that on the table,
quote, outrageous misrepresent that on the table, quote,
outrageous misrepresentation of the Supreme Court ruling, the unanimous court rule that a district court order properly requires the government to facilitate Abrego Garcia's release from custody
in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled and it would have been had he not been
improperly sent to El Salvador. Yes, the court also stated that the intended scope of the term
effectuate in the district court's order is, however, unclear and may exceed the district court authority. And it told the district court
to clarify its directive with due regard for the deference owed to executive branch in the conduct
of foreign affairs. But due regard does not mean the district court couldn't give any teeth to
effectuate. In any event, the district court dropped effectuate from its revised order.
So this is all irrelevant. The duty to facilitate continues. And that's what the government is
saying is that their only duty to facilitate is that
if Bukele were to release Abrego Garcia from prison, that they would fly him back to the
United States, proceed with a deportation through a due process proceeding, and then
he would be sent back to El Salvador.
But at the very least, that is still one which fits within the bounds of the law.
And that is not what we see right now from the Trump administration. And they have stretched it, you know, 10 times
farther than any before. And in fact, it does appear that they're trying to pick fights with
the courts over their immigration nationality authority specifically. But in this particular
case, as I want to come back to, the truth is, is that everything they have said on this process,
and you know, look, this requires me a
culpa from people like me. I never in my wildest dreams imagined that you would just simply snatch
people up who had nothing to do with, I mean, for example, we have eight to 10 million gang members,
or sorry, eight to 10 million illegal immigrants. Is it really implausible there are 200 gang
members present in the United States? I honestly don't think so. I am relatively familiar with gang proceedings and others in the criminal justice
system, their gang enhancements and others at state by state level. This is something that
cops do every day. Would it really have entered that wildest dream to think that you would take
somebody and look at their administrative paperwork and then mistakenly deport that individual and then claim, you know, without any, without really, without even walking
back any claims around this, to say that this is somebody to be deported to El Salvador. It's also
similarly very different than to go through a deportation proceeding for being sent back to
El Salvador than it is to facilitate the actual entry into this prison as a behest
of the United States government. That direction also matters. So if Abrego Garcia went through
the normal deportation process and was sent to El Salvador and they decided to put him in prison,
okay, that's a different thing. It fundamentally is because that's not something that was facilitated,
paid for, and done at the behest of the United States government. In this particular case,
that is absolutely not what has happened. And I think it is very clear that the government is
trying to stretch it now to this point. And at this, it is a breaking point, name of the show,
this is one where you must stand up against what the current government is doing specifically
because it does apply to United States citizens. There is not a single limiting principle that can be held here.
And it's not about the Alien Enemies Act. It's not even really about illegal versus legal. There
is nothing under the current logic that would stop them from doing this to any United States citizen
who would mistakenly be deported. And if we are then to assume and to now look at the obvious
credibility gap within the White House,
at their shoddy procedures, at not even shoddy, I mean, just outright fake, basically, at this point.
The MS-13 East Coast gang leader and thing that we saw, no reasonable individual, in my opinion,
could have confidence in the current Department of Homeland Security to be able to fundamentally distinguish
and make sure that there is enough of a, quote, process that is being put in place there to ensure that no United States citizen would ever be
mistakenly deported under this current regime, especially in the way that it has all been
implemented at this time. So we can look step by step at all the processes easily in hindsight and
say, this was not true. This was not true. This was not true. This is being handled differently.
This is now here. And the limiting principle, which is, you know, like an often thing you
should look at, especially with legal and others. As I said, I've spoken with many,
many legal minds, and the only thing stopping them is their own behest of not being able to
do something. And that's just simply not good enough, in my opinion, you know? I mean, what
they're really asking for is trust. And I just don't think that any reasonable person who is
now looking at this can have any trust whatsoever in the procedure that they put in place or any of the statements
that they have forward on MS-13, Trend de Agua, especially with the arrest of that so-called East
Coast gang leader, and then many of the arrests that have been made now so far. So anyway, that's
my long-winded way of just saying I think this is incredibly dangerous. And I do think that I've
seen FIRE and numerous other organizations stand up. I've seen Ed Whalen and others as well. And so that's
also, I think that allows for calibration. And I understand a lot of MAGA is in a place where they
don't want to take, you know, they find it annoying that they call them a Maryland. It's like, okay,
fine. We can talk later about the illegal and illegal status because it's actually not about
that right now. And that's, that's the kind of the point I want to get across. This is not about illegal immigration.
This specific case is not about illegal immigration, period. It really is about
courts, and it is also about principles, which would, of course, apply to anybody.
And under that current regime, then no, without any limiting power on the government,
that there is nothing stopping from a U.S. citizen. It's clear now that Donald Trump, if he says it, you know, we have to take him seriously at this point as well.
It is now clear also that many of the guardrails, which, you know, frankly, I thought would be there,
have obviously fallen apart or not even fallen apart. It's just that there are willing
participants and they view everything as some sort of like left-right media game,
almost like you and I debating here on this show. And it's like with the tariffs,
it's like with Signalgate,
it's like with all of these other things.
It's like, no, this is about real people's lives.
Like you people are in the government.
This is not a CNN panel where we're trying to joust here
about who's right and who's wrong.
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Wait a minute, John.
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Well, Sam, luckily it's your not the Father week on the OK Storytime podcast,
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I'm Hope Woodard, a comedian, creator and seeker of male validation.
To most people, I'm the girl behind voice voiceover the movement that exploded in 2024 voiceover is about
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Singleness is not a waiting room.
You are actually at the party right now.
Let me hear it.
Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
These people, they want them to stay in this torture dungeon for life. People who did nothing
wrong. Nothing. I mean, many of these individuals, the ones that the media has been able to track
down, they went through the process. Like they showed, they got their appointment.
They're going through the asylum process.
Now we can have a lot of conversations
about that asylum process.
They did nothing wrong.
They were following the process as it was set out.
90% no criminal record.
Sentenced to a life of torture and misery.
And the administration knows that. They know that.
They're not fools. They know what they've done. It's evil. I mean, there's just no other word
to sending people who are innocent, who have committed no crime, done nothing wrong,
to rot in a prison cell known for torture and human rights abuse for life. That's what we're talking about
here. And you mentioned, you know, a breaking point yesterday. I had the same reaction of,
you know, obviously I was concerned about this administration coming in. I've been deeply
concerned about the actions that have been taken. I, you know, when this initially occurred, I was
really deeply concerned about where not only that action, but where would ultimately lead.
But now you have them in
open defiance of the Supreme Court. I mean, just lying about what the Supreme Court even said.
You have them committing to keep someone they admitted they messed up by sending down to this
prison. They are dead set on keeping that man in that prison for his entire life, however long that lasts.
And now on camera multiple times, Trump is out there.
Next up is American citizens.
That is a dramatic escalation of authoritarianism.
And I'm glad to see yourself.
I'm glad to see others.
I'm glad to see Ed Whalen.
But I have to say, not one Republican politician, not one. Yeah, they can't. Not a Rand Paul, not a Thomas Massey. Yes,
they can. Well, yes, they can, but we've seen, I mean, on certain issues, they have broken with
this president occasionally. And to just completely like these are people who hold themselves. Oh,
here's the Constitution and who've held themselves down as these constitutional conservatives.
The president of the United States plans to completely deny due process to U.S. citizens and throw them in a foreign prison.
And not one person wants to speak out about that?
That, to me, is astonishing.
And let me go ahead and put up on the screen. Let's go to these last pieces,
this most recent case that we're learning about, because the more we're learning about these
individuals, the more you can see, like they just, anyone they could grab who is Venezuelan,
they grabbed. Put up, I believe it's a six guys, this 19 year old migrant from Venezuela who had
come with his dad. This is a photo of him with his father.
Put the next piece up on the screen. This was by this news outlet. It's called Documented.
So they were living in New York. This is the kind of quintessential story. They, you know,
got their, they came across the border. They got put on a bus to the infamous Roosevelt Hotel in New York. They're working at actually unpacking Timu packages by the airport.
There's a lot going on.
And so his son is coming back to the apartment after running some errands and just steps from his home.
ICE agents stop him.
They grab him and two other boys right at the entrance of our building.
This is his father.
One said, one of the ICE agents said, no, he's not the one.
Like they were looking for someone else.
But the other said, take him anyway.
This one, no criminal record,
did not even have a tattoo.
You know, not that that's any sort of justification,
but they knew this isn't the right guy.
And they snatched him up anyways.
And now he is, his father's beside himself.
And he is in this
prison potentially for life or until, you know, another administration decides they're going to
do something. And the game that Trump and Bukele are playing here, Trump is saying, oh, I couldn't
possibly. I don't have the power over what's going on in El Salvador. And Bukele is saying, oh, I
don't have the power to get him out of prison. Like, both of you do. You both do. You don't think
that Trump has power. Oh, it's El
Salvador. But Kelly has decided to like completely align himself with Trump. Yesterday he tweeted
out after he left, oh my God, I miss you already. He called him Mr. T. President T or something like
that. We are paying them. We have a contract, $6 million contract with them to keep these people
in this prison. If Trump said yesterday to McKellie,
hey, we messed up. We need to get that guy back. It would be done. It would be over.
McKellie is running El Salvador under state of exception. He can do whatever he wants.
Yeah, it's true. It's literally martial law.
And by the way, there were some of the people that we had tried to deport to this prison,
several women that were included that they were like, no, we're not taking women,
that they sent back.
So they clearly have the power to send some people back.
They also apparently rejected people
who were also from other Central American countries
to basically take off.
That's right, because they were worried about the...
Intro to Central American politics.
Yeah, so you're more worried about that
than the United States of America.
I mean, it's just they...
And to your point about the guardrails,
you know, the Supreme Court did mess up here because you have to know at this point, I think John Roberts is
trying to play this game and be too cute of let me give them a little bit, let me give
them some wins, let me give them something that they can, no.
If you don't tell them, no, you cannot do, you must get him back.
If you give them even the little tiniest bit of anything, they will do exactly what they
did here.
Lie about what you said, refuse to do anything whatsoever. And this has now been kicked back
to the district court. They're supposed to be providing updates every day. They've just
basically refused to do that, certainly in the way that the court has ordered them to do.
And they're certainly inching up to that district court judge, holding them in contempt.
I fully expect that to go back to the Supreme Court.
So there are still things working their way through the judicial process.
But at this point, you have to say that they are openly defying certainly the spirit of the court order.
They have laid down a marker that if they can get the plane in the air, then they can do nothing. Then, you know, as long as they are quick enough, then they can deny people's rights.
They can act completely extra constitutionally, do whatever they want.
And even when they get caught and admit a complete screw up, they still don't care.
They think that these people should be there for life.
It is absolutely outrageous.
That's why I think that the way that it was set out is very important to see and see exactly, like you said, like at the current thing,
there is no simple limiting principle on the government's action. And that is genuinely
extraordinary. Like we can have conceptual debates about planes and judges and being able to turn
things around about gang members. Listen, I'll happily debate anybody all day long as to whether
any of these people even should have been in the United States or were abusing the process.
But it's one of those where that is actually not what is on the table right now, right?
Let's think about this just conceptually. If the government had arrested Abrego Garcia and gone
through the standard deportation process, of which there
was a very good chance that he's getting deported, period. He's gone, this 19-year-old, and then no
one would even know his name. And then the Salvadorians, if they want to throw him in
prison, that's their business, this 19-year-old. By their own admission, this guy came here because
he didn't have enough money in Venezuela. He's not even pretending that he was fleeing
gang violence or whatever. Same thing. You don't even have a claim of asylum. You're going home under a standard deportation
process. Crystal, I'll go to bat on that any day of the week. That's not the same thing as saying
temporary deportation order or temporary deportation hold, then coming around and being
like, oh, we're going to send him there. And then actually, we're not going to get back because
there's nothing we can do about it.
And this is what I want the MAGA folks to really understand because they are conflating the two.
They're saying, oh, I break over.
And I'm like, listen, I'm with you.
All right.
You know, why is the guy who's been here illegally since 2011 doesn't claim asylum until 2019?
Should he really be in the United States?
No, obviously.
For me, I think a lot of people agree with that sentiment.
They voted for that.
Now, this, this is not even within the realm.
But you're asking about MAGA and all those other folks.
They are so triggered.
Listen, I emotionally, I understand this.
Whenever people, you know, I see the media, Maryland father, and all talking about all this.
I get it.
I totally understand because you're basically conveying citizenship effectively on somebody who is not a citizen.
You know, even in a lot of these other
cases, they're going to look exactly like what I just did and be like, oh my God, they're claiming
this guy is like Mother Teresa or whatever. And it's like, okay, well, he didn't even follow
basic precepts of law. It's not about that right now because we can't. And in fact,
if the government had simply followed the basic laid out process and had gone through an ice hold
and a deportation order of which they are well
within their ability as they continue to do right now, they could say nothing about nobody except
the ACLU and some open borders lawyers would be talking about this. You would be on the most
winning ground. I'm talking politically now. However, by doing this, you are actually poisoning the well,
just like they did with tariffs, for any sort of faith and credibility, even from many people who
support your supposed policy, to be able to believe a word that you say. And that is where I find
myself looking at this, is that there was, and this, you know, we talked about this with Glenn
in particular. He's like, look, nothing stops you from doing the deportation to your own home country.
Literally nothing.
So do that.
Again, with that barber guy, like, really?
Like, we're really going to take this asylum claim seriously?
Like, I'm sorry.
I don't.
And, you know, fine.
We can argue again about that all day long.
Fine.
Send him back to Venezuela.
But, you know, sending somebody to a prison or even in this particular case,
admitting that you shouldn't have done so and under no pretense of a process and then also
no pretense of even pretending to bring somebody back, it's simply not the same debate.
And by putting yourself on this debate, in my opinion, I'm curious what you think.
I actually do think this is a big demarcation point for the government where a lot of people, yes, MAGA politicians and all of them may not be talking.
There are a lot of normal conservative MAGA folks and others who agree with deportation who are like, yeah, I'm out on this one.
And I think that they have done that with the tariffs.
They've done that with the credibility, a lot of that with Doge.
We'll talk about Doge soon, won't we, about some of their redefinitions.
At a certain point, you've got to get the hood pulled over from your eyes. You know, you can support a lot of these things in principle,
and you can also criticize, I think, a lot of the ways that, not even about practicality,
but seeing genuinely on the facts of the matter, they're not the same thing as to what the
government is trying to argue. Because, you know, every time Stephen Miller opens his mouth,
he's talking how I am about, oh, somebody who came here illegally. It's like, no, that's not what we're talking about here, though.
You could have easily deported him.
Again, nobody would have said anything, except for the ACLU and a bunch of other, like, Catholic charities, organizations, and nobody really cares what they have to say.
But that's not what we're talking about here.
You made this into a national case for basically no reason.
Well, actually, no, I think we do know the reason.
It's because they want the maximum ability. This is what they want. Last thing, I am sorry, droning
on. But the point about mass deportation is it's actually not happening. It's just the truth is,
is that the numbers are not that high. And it is obvious that the government is either too
incompetent or unable to actually even do what they said they were going to do, which is start with criminals and or whatever. And they're diverting immense amount of resources at
the exact same time to these Palestinian, I mean, you know, you look at these videos of
Ozturk, you know, there's like five people there. What, what are we doing? What are we doing? You
know, for, to dedicate all of these resources to this, you know, police state on behalf of a foreign government and then same in the sheer ineptitude and either ineptitude or callousness, I don't know which it is, for things like this where, oh, just grab him anyway.
There's no rhyme.
There's no reason.
And, yeah, they've lost – they have lost all credibility in the eyes, I think, of any, you know, reasonable person who could look at this now
at this point. And, you know, that's, they are going to validate the immigrant activists more
than anybody else on the planet. And so four or five years from now, if you lose the White House
and they mass legalize everybody, that's on you at this point. I really, I really believe that.
Well, because they, I mean, you're right, that they validated, like, the worst fears.
No, literally.
Beyond, honestly, and you guys know, like, you could accuse me of Trump derangement syndrome,
but I was very concerned about this administration.
This is far beyond, far beyond what I could have even come up with.
And last thing I'll say is just, you know, to tie in the piece that you were talking about of the crackdown on these student protesters and activists and some people who aren't even activists.
All of this is, you know, they're workshopping it with immigrants.
It will not stay with immigrants.
We already obviously already see him out there.
The homegrowns are next.
OK, and you cannot you should not expect them
to get, first of all, no American citizen should just be shipped. Even if you are a criminal should
be shipped to this foreign dungeon, in my opinion. But if you, even if you're okay with that,
why should you believe this administration when they say, oh, we're going to send the worst of
the worst. And they're sending some 19 year old kid who's done nothing wrong. They're sending the
gay makeup artist who's done nothing wrong. They're sending 90%
of the people they sent no criminal record. 90%. Only five had felony convictions, okay?
So what they're testing with the immigrants first is intended for the whole population. And yes,
we already have indications of that with Israel as well. We already have proof of that with, you know, U.S. citizens who they pressured universities to kick out of school.
They are investigating these pro-Palestine protests as terrorism.
What's starting in the immigrant community, because that's like the lowest hanging fruit, and they can argue, oh, we were elected to do this, blah, blah, blah.
The plan is to spread that to everyone. So that's why everyone should be concerned about what is
going on here. Even if you don't care about these particular individuals, you don't care about this
particular cause. First of all, I would say you should. But even if you don't, this does not stay
with these individuals. There is nothing that means, that keeps this infringement on rights
among a certain select group of people within the country. So that's why it's important.
As I said, that is not hyperbole. That is quite literally true in the case of the
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Have you ever thought about going voiceover?
I'm Hope Woodard, a comedian, creator and seeker of male validation.
To most people, I'm the girl behind VoiceOver, the movement that exploded in 2024.
VoiceOver is about understanding yourself outside of sex and relationships.
It's more than personal.
It's political, it's societal, and at times, it's far from what I originally intended it to be.
These days, I'm interested in expanding what it means to be voiceover,
to make it customizable for anyone who feels the need to explore their relationship to relationships.
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How we love our family.
I've spent a lifetime trying to get my mother to love me, but the price is too high.
And how we love ourselves.
Singleness is not a waiting room.
You are actually at the party right now.
Let me hear it.
Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Okay, shall we move on to Trump and his approval rating?
I think these two things tie in.
I really do.
I think there's been a, you know, we talked a lot about that vibe shift from November.
When do you think the vibe shift peaked?
February?
What do you want to say?
I would say February 1st.
That was before true Doge idiocy started to set in.
Okay, I'll give you that.
Right? So it was like, it was 10 days, nine days into the first Trump administration. We had the
ceasefire in Gaza, right? So we could peace post. We had, Elon was, Elon was around. There were the
executive orders. There was the general vibe, like, okay. And then, you know, by around mid-Feb,
that's when I think things really started to shift.
Let's go ahead and then talk about Trump's approval rating.
So Trump, as we talked about often in the early days, the first month or so, he was doing pretty well.
He was the highest ever for him.
You know, he was standing strong on the economy.
He seemed to be doing incredibly well on immigration.
Things have now taken a pretty significant turn for him.
And in the same trend line that we saw for Joe Biden after the withdrawal from Afghanistan,
except this one is just a mere 80 some days into his first term. Let's take a listen to Harry Ent and he breaks a lot of it down. I would argue this is the worst set of polling
data that Donald Trump has had in his entire second term as president, in part because the
CBS News YouGov poll that came out yesterday
has been one of his best. Let's first take a look at how folks are feeling about the state
of the economy. Think that the economy is getting worse. Well, you don't have to be a mathematical
genius to see the trend line on your screen, and it is getting worse. More folks are feeling the
economy is going southward. Back in November, it was just 42% of Americans who said the economy is getting worse.
You jump forward to February, 49%.
You jump forward to March, 51%.
Now look at this number.
53%, the clear majority of Americans, think that the economy is getting worse.
Donald Trump wants to say, don't blame me if you're upset with the state of the economy.
Blame the other guy.
I don't think Americans are
buying what he's selling at this particular point, at least anymore. More responsible for the
economic state. They asked about inflation back in March. Look at this. 38 percent said Joe Biden.
34 percent said Donald Trump. But look at where we are this month when they asked about the general
state of the economy. Look at how much higher the Trump number is. 54% the Joe Biden percentage drops through the floor at 21%.
So this idea that Donald Trump will try to sell to the American public,
is trying to sell the American public, is that it's the other guy.
It's not me.
It's that other guy, that old guy, Joe Biden.
No longer is this being, the American public is no longer buying this set of arguments like they
were back in March. So you could see that the turn from blaming Biden, not exactly positive
news there for Donald Trump. The more ownership that he has over the economy, the more negative
that it will be, especially as we see the conflagration of tariffs, of consumer sentiment,
and price increases begin to cascade if they do stick to the current policy. Don't forget that.
Let's go and put this up there on the screen. We saw a similar decline in the overall tracking
index of the approval rating. So what Nate Silver flags here is that the precipitous decline
that we saw right now, a Trump approval is currently at minus five, but that's, quote,
only if we use polls since Liberation Day, he would be at minus 8.5 instead. That is a pretty significant hit over the span
of barely more than a week. He was at minus 2.5 on April 1st, just before liberation day.
I would also note in particular that the, the focus right now, if you're just thinking about
the people who are all paying attention, right? to people who are generally looking at the news, etc.
Immigration, despite the entire segment we just did, was still very strong ground, I think, for Donald Trump.
But go ahead and put B4 up on the screen.
This is very important, that tariffs have actually moved ahead of immigration as a top concern for American voters from the latest poll from
Echelon Insights, the very concern number at some 70% there, and actually even more concern
in the very concern for tariffs over immigration, with immigration actually falling below a 50th
percentile. With the majority of the population really focusing in on tariffs, it's just weak
ground for Donald Trump because he doesn't even have the conceptual fallback that he originally would have had rhetorically on the issue.
Now it's just all about the process, the whipsaw, the seesaw, the chaos that people can tune into every day.
And that is a very similar feeling, I think, to the Biden administration where they felt as if at the end of the day for inflation,
there was no steady hand on the wheel. There was no plan. That's really when Biden sank, right?
Yeah. It was 2022, in my opinion. And we could see that's when the runaway inflation and all that
started to happen. And all of this is just terrible data for Donald Trump and for his White House,
because they want to try and save face. They want to try and actually do something after they
basically nuked this entire,
you know, the entire like economic outlook of the country,
but they don't know where to fall.
They just don't know what they're doing right now.
Yeah, well, and Trump loves the tariffs
because he, I mean,
he shouldn't be able to do them unilaterally,
but he just is.
Yeah, because he can't.
And so it does give him the power of a monarch.
I mean, there is a reason why tariffs
were supposed to be the purview of Congress, so that you wouldn't have the dynamic of this, like, CEO, king,
dictator figure going and doling out, oh, you get an exemption, you get an exemption, like,
and all these companies and all these countries coming to call. This man has development properties
all around the world. You don't think that these countries are going to be coming to him,
greasing the skids, giving him tax incentive, whatever it is going to help his business,
making sure that, you know, Tesla is on solid ground, whatever it is that Trump wants out of
him. So he loves that power. But tariffs have actually always been one of the shakier parts
of his plan of the things that he ran on. It was always during his campaign when we were looking
at the numbers, it was always sort of like 50-50. People were not in love with the idea of tariffs.
And it makes sense because at this point, you had inflation as the number one economic concern,
and people felt like tariffs are probably going to make things even more expensive.
And they're right about that. In some of that CBS News YouGov polling, they asked people,
who do you think is going to benefit from Trump's trade and tariff policies?
Number one answer, 74 percent, the wealthy.
Number two answer, 71 percent, large corporations.
The next one down, 50 percent, so big drop, is U.S. auto industry, which we'll talk more about in the next block.
And then it's all the way down.
The lowest ones are working class,
middle class, and small businesses. So people don't feel like this is a plan that is going to help them, even though it is being sold in that way. And at a time when inflation continues to be
a massive concern for Americans and for American consumers, obviously, they're going to be deeply
concerned about what is going on here. And in some ways, even like obviously he's pulled back some,
although I think, I honestly think it's been a little bit oversold.
How much he's pulled back in my whole monologue is about tariffs.
Then I dig into a small business owner who imports her product from China.
She actually wanted to import it from the United States,
or wanted to produce it in the United States.
It just was literally impossible.
And the 145%
China tariffs, they will destroy her business. Like there is no way, no way that she can survive.
And she is one of many. So, but even if Trump rolls back on even more of the tariffs and makes
all these deals and declares victory, art of the deal, whatever, I do think in a lot of ways,
the damage has already been done. And I do think it is somewhat of the deal, whatever. I do think in a lot of ways the damage has already
been done. And I do think it is somewhat analogous to, even though I still support Biden having
gotten out of Afghanistan, there's just no denying that there was a massive hit to his
approval rate that he never recovered from. And I do think it's analogous. The honeymoon is over
for Trump. The vibe shift has vibe shifted again. And the economic damage that is being done right now in this moment
with this level of uncertainty and people feeling like, businesses feeling like, I can't do it. I
just got to like hold on to cash and freeze in place and hope I can survive this totally
unnecessary tumult. That is not going to be undone no matter what Trump announces today,
tomorrow, the next day, et cetera. What serious person, CEO, even if the administration came out tomorrow and was like,
this is our plan for the next four years, what serious person would actually invest based upon
that confidence? I said that, yes, I don't know if you caught this. I was like, I would short the
stock of anybody. Yeah, you were like, I would as a shareholder, I would vote to fire that CEO.
I'd be like, no, we're not doing this. You clearly have no judgment, dude.
You need to hoard the cash and do nothing, absolutely nothing.
Don't take too big of a risk.
And that's because there's no confidence.
You know, and what drives me nuts about this, too, is that it's clear that people are not even still paying attention to the tax legislation
which still has to come out later on this year.
And there is no really positive sign for Donald Trump in the next, I would say, nine months.
We have the tariffs.
That is going to dominate the news.
Elon and all that, Doge is basically, I mean, it's still around, but it's not really like
the number one concern.
So you've got this immigration stuff, a front page story on literally every across the paper
in every country, probably the number one thing that most people hear about if they
are politically engaged.
Tariffs is going to be number one and or number two that they're generally engaging with.
Well, what else is on the horizon?
The only next major thing that we can predict on the horizon is the tax legislation.
We know from baseline the tax legislation is going to be crazy unpopular. There's not even
an argument about it. It's just period. And most Republicans will admit that with a straight face.
There's really nothing you can do. And also Trump said, I want to cut a trillion dollars.
So it's kind of like with Biden, where we can look ahead to whatever is going to come next.
We know no major piece of legislation is going to pass the Senate or the House of Representatives before this tax bill.
We know that it has to happen in the next several months.
So the next flagship piece of legislation after this whole economy and tariff situation is going to be a major tax cut for corporations and a trillion dollar.
According to them, it's not my words, they said, I want to cut $1 trillion and I want to increase the Pentagon budget by $150 billion, which just so happens to be the
exact amount of money that Elon now claims that Doge has saved. So what are we doing here? You
know, what's the net out effect of this? You would be forgiven to be pretty pessimistic about that
whole situation, wouldn't you? And Elon's lying about those savings too. Let's even take the 150 at face value.
Completely. But I'm saying from an approval rating standpoint, the TCJA, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,
was the lowest single day of Donald Trump's presidency in the first term. The lowest day.
Again, everybody always forgets that. People do pay attention sometimes. I think that will happen
again this time around. And it will be a Biden-like compounding effect of either bailing out the rich, feeling chaotic, not really having a steady hand at the wheel.
So you can see on approval grounds on the economy and more, the more you lose that. I mean,
you and I have said this, nobody knows what will happen at the midterms, okay? And of course,
nobody knows what will happen in global affairs. Trump could literally, I don't know, there could
be a crazy peace deal in Ukraine. There could be a new ceasefire in Gaza. There's so many different
things that could affect it. But in terms of what we can predict, that's what we see on the horizon
as something that is very obvious for his approval rating that is not going to go over well.
Yeah. And the last thing I want to note here, put B3 up on the screen, Trump's approval rating with
young people. People were very excited about Trump performing better among young people.
It's one poll, small sample, who knows, okay?
But look at the way among 18 to 29-year-olds, his approval rating has fallen off a freaking cliff.
Around the time he got elected, you can see him in solidly positive territory.
You know, there's been a decline among other age groups, except those 45 to 64-year-olds.
Gen Xers, man.
Those Gen Xers, they're kind of hanging in there, aren't they?
But among 18 to 29-year-olds, it has plummeted.
Now at its lowest levels, looks like minus 30, oh, minus 29 here among 18 to 29-year-olds.
So, you know, all of these hopeful takes about how, you know, the young people are going to be, they're going to be shifting right and they're super conservative and they love Donald Trump. That all seems to be evaporating very quickly in real time. Yeah. I mean, like I said, you never know.
These polls and all that ahead to the election. But I do think I instead of looking at the poll,
let me think about the fundamentals. What are young folks tuned into? What was the whole vibe shift about on TikTok and others? It was about irreverence specifically
for young men. It was more of a cultural attitude. Right now is not a cultural moment. Right now is
one of the rare times in American history where it's actually a policy moment. It's about tariffs.
It's about immigration. Those are real things. And it's not really about pronouns and bios or, you know, any of that other stuff right now.
I think Richard Henania said he's like, it feels indecent to be talking about wokeness right now.
And I was like, you know, that's actually very—
That is an absolutely correct observation.
Well, think about—sorry, go ahead.
No, no, it's fine.
I was just going to say it's not—they're not in power anymore.
They're gone.
We have a different argument.
It's over.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Also, whoever runs for president
next, I have relative confidence they're not going to be having their pronouns in bio, right? So we
won. All right. Congratulations. Yeah. I don't think trans athletes are going to end up in the
D1 at this point anymore. They probably have learned their lesson. If they haven't, then
they're idiots, but that's their, you know, whatever. My point is just like those fights
are over. So in a certain sense, that culture has been won. Now we're
talking about money, future, immigration, like actual stuff. And on that, first of all, TikTok
and all of that is not very well equipped, in my opinion, to handle a lot of those issues. And so,
you know, even TikTok is elevating some of the most anti-terror voices, which is very bad
for Trump, ironically, because he's trying to save it. But the vibe right now is not one where Republicans are best poised to win because
outside of genuine, like, MAGA sycophants, can you find a serious person who is defending the
tariffs? No. The closest we got was Orrin. And Orrin's like, Orin's like, yeah, exactly. He just, he doesn't want to,
you know, completely throw Terrace under the bus.
Right. But that's all he got. It's very clear.
This is not the way Orin Cass would have done.
No. Yeah, exactly. So you have no
serious, when you have nothing like that,
somebody can really articulate your case
all that well. And then this whole
trans and, you know, pronoun stuff is
just so, like, it almost feels like a
bygone era. You're fighting on very different ground. Yeah, well, and if you know, pronoun stuff, it's just so, like, it almost feels like a bygone era.
You're fighting on very different ground. Yeah, well, and if you think about, I mean,
millennials are the most left-wing generation, like, maybe in history. And you think about what were their formative experiences. It was the Iraq War, and it was the Great Recession. You know,
it was people coming out of college to an economic catastrophe. And the way
that set the entire generation back significantly in terms of being able to achieve the milestones
that their parents had been able to achieve, you know, family and being able to get married and
being able to buy a house, those sorts of things were all pushed into the future because of the
economic calamity that met millennials when they were, you know, just pushed into the future because of the economic calamity that met millennials when
they were, you know, just coming into the workforce and graduating from college, etc. And so if you
have a similar dynamic with Gen Z, I don't think they're going to be in love with the party that is
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you get your podcasts. Have you ever thought about going voiceover? I'm Hope Woodard,
a comedian, creator, and seeker of male validation.
To most people, I'm the girl behind Boy Sober, the movement that
exploded in 2024. Boy Sober is about understanding yourself outside of sex and relationships.
It's more than personal. It's political, it's societal, and at times, it's far from what I
originally intended it to be. These days, I'm interested in expanding what
it means to be voiceover, to make it customizable for anyone who feels the need to explore their
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we love each other. It's a very, very normal experience to have times where a relationship is
prioritizing other parts of that relationship that aren't being naked together. How we love
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And how we love ourselves. Singleness is not a waiting room. You are actually at the party right
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Let's go ahead and shift to Tara. So we have
some new news this morning
about China's retaliation.
They have halted, I'll
go ahead and put this up on the screen, they
have halted all shipments
of Boeing products.
They're ordering Boeing jet delivery to be halted as the trade war expands.
Boeing, I saw, was down on this news.
And before we jump to the auto piece, Sagar, why don't you just go ahead and break down what you see as significant about this?
Well, advanced aerospace manufacturing, that was one of the gold standards where the United States still had somewhat of a leg up.
The Chinese over the last decade have pumped billions and billions of dollars into being able to develop their own competitors to Airbus and to Boeing.
They don't want their airline or aerospace industry to be reliant on U.S. supply chains and on design specifically.
So the reduction in Boeing is two things. First
of all, as of 2025, quote, China accounts for 20 to 25 percent of Boeing's global aircraft
deliveries. So the flagship United States aerospace company just took a 25 percent haircut on its
overall delivery of corporate jets. So that's number one. Number two is that the Airbus stock
is soaring right now, which further means that
Airbus, the major European competitor, and frankly, much better safety record, can we all admit that
in the last decade or so, is one that is going to be the major beneficiary. Meanwhile, the Chinese
are also going to be pumping significant, even more amounts of the technology development into
their industry at home. So this is an alignment against the United States. This
is part of why I'm so upset about the, quote, implementation of all of these tariffs. In an
ideal tariff regime, we want Boeing to thrive. Boeing should be the flagship of America's
industry in the way that it was in the 1940s and all the way through the 1970s before deregulation
and combination and stock buybacks
and all of that. It was a gold standard. It was like something that everyone could aspire to
from a jobs perspective and producing, and this is the best thing, the most important and the
best products. Already, we've moved away from that. But despite legacy, of course, they're still able
to develop and to pump out quite a few. To be cut off in the interim. There is no plan by the government
today to save Boeing. And look, I get it. People are evanimous towards Boeing. We've talked about
the whistleblowers, et cetera. We can still reform. It's still very important. We need
an aerospace company. Can we all admit that? We need to fly, people. We can't be reliant on the
Europeans and on the Brazilians to be shipping us jets that are flying us all over our country.
Not possible in terms of any sort of defense industrial base. So this is the exact scenario where Boeing,
flagship American advanced manufacturing, the exact type of industry, is taking a haircut as
a result of the tariff with no plan to actually help Boeing do anything in the future. That's
the problem that we have. And China gets kind of kills two birds with one stone here because not
only do they hobble a critical industry for us, but they also bolster the Europeans. Exactly. That's
what I'm saying. At a time when, you know, again, if you were going to do this intelligently and
you were going to try to go directly at China, you would want to have the world on your side.
You would rather than being out there insulting people and throwing tariffs all around at
everybody across the board, et cetera. And so this is an opportunity also for China to give the Europeans
something that is beneficial for them as well.
At the same time, the tariff roller coaster is far from over.
President Trump now, in addition to the exemptions of various high-tech things
that benefit like Apple and Nvidia,
now he's also considering some possible exemptions with regard to the auto
tariffs. Let's go ahead and listen to that. So President Trump says that car makers might need
a little bit more time when he was asked about any potential exemptions coming in the future.
He added that he's looking at something to help the car companies where they're switching parts
that were made in Canada and Mexico to the U.S. Of course, a big push of President Trump's
tariffs plan is to reshore production, but that's been particularly difficult for car makers, particularly when we're
looking at the USMCA-compliant goods, North America trade between Canada and Mexico,
considering that car parts pass between the border so many times.
So, one, we have the current Canada and Mexico tariffs that are in place, but also those auto-specific sector
tariffs that went into place last month under Section 232, where we saw a 25% auto tariff
across the board. So it does appear that President Trump is opening up a little leeway here,
potentially for negotiations to get underway. We know that the big three automakers in particular
have been lobbying this White House for months. You'll recall during President Trump's State of
the Union address in February,
he had said that they were in his office and they called him.
That's when he announced that initial reprieve, but then ended up putting those tariffs on.
And so, again, this shows you the way this works.
The big three automakers, they're able to get them on the phone.
They're able to say, hey, this is going to be a freaking disaster for us
because these parts cross the border multiple times.
The cost of a vehicle is going to skyrocket like tens of thousands of dollars if these
actually go into place.
And so he hears them out and is potentially walking back temporarily some of the, oh,
but they're not exemptions, Sagar, don't worry, some of the auto tariffs.
Yeah, this is, again, you know, what's happening?
The tariffs are on, they're off, they're 20%, they're 25%.
Now they're exempted and maybe they're not exempted.
There's the USMCA, there's fentanyl.
Nobody has any idea.
And what most people are doing, and I'm telling you, this is obvious,
they're just stopping all shipping.
Anything coming to America, they're like, hold it over there and we'll figure it out.
Go ahead and put C3, please, up on the screen so you guys can see this. This is the week over week drop in ocean
bookings. 50%. Overall U.S. imports down 64%. Overall U.S. exports down 30%. U.S. imports from
China down 64%. U.S. exports to China down 36%. That's just in a week, okay? It could fall to
100. Inventory, does anybody remember this little term called just-in-time delivery that we all learned about during COVID?
Did anything change?
Does anyone want to tell me?
Did anything change in the last five years?
No, it didn't.
It actually got worse.
And so what does that mean?
It means that we don't have stockpiles.
We talked yesterday a lot about rare earth minerals, still a very important conversation. What did we learn from the rare earth mineral discussion is that American companies,
basically because they run on a cash and a stock basis, refuse to stock up. We don't have a supply
chain. We have no refining ability. We have no ability basically to make up for this in the
overnight way that China has cut us off from it. It will obviously have cascading effects throughout
our supply chain. A lot of this stuff matters, especially for cars, for batteries. It's a full court press.
The Chinese, again, I have to respect them and their competence. They know exactly where to hit
us hard. The number one industry we care the most about is aerospace advanced manufacturing. That's
gold standard for the defense industrial base. So what do you do? Screw you, Boeing. Before that,
semiconductors, make sure you cut off all do? Screw you, Boeing. Before that, semiconductors,
make sure you cut off all the minerals that you need there. Hope the South Koreans and the Japanese can bail us out. From people I've spoken to, they have stockpiles of their own, but they don't
necessarily want to sell it to us. Now what do you do? Semiconductors and then cars. That was the
final one for magnets and other things that are necessary. That is a direct attack, by the way,
at Tesla stock because they need those to be able to build all of the cars that they do here in America. All three of the things are targeting the growth industries,
the manufacturing industries, and the exact type of things that we can point to and say,
this is how tariffs could be working and could be saving. And that's what they're attacking.
And we have no policy right now to actually help any of it on the back end.
Yeah, that's exactly right. So interestingly, Sean Fain, who's the head of the United Auto Workers, he has been defending the tariffs.
You know, he'll say, I don't I'm not just with regard.
I think he tries to make it like just just with regards to the auto industry.
He recently went on MSNBC. It was one of these panel shows where you've got like Alicia Menendez, Simone Sanders and Michael Steele, I think.
And they're all trying to spar with him
over his position with regard to these tariffs.
Let's go ahead and take a listen, guys.
This is C2 to a little bit of how that went down.
You know, let's talk about the realities of what,
you know, and this is saying,
you know, I've been reading a lot of this lately.
Going back, in 1992, I voted for Ross Perot.
You know why I voted for Ross Perot?
For one reason, because he was the only candidate
that talked about how devastating NAFTA would be to American jobs and to our manufacturing base.
And he talked about that giant sucking sound. You know, I've read this book here in the last week,
you know, save your, save your job, save our country. Why NAFTA must be stopped now.
You know, what's interesting since then then, Ross Pro has become a profit. Since NAFTA
was inception in 1993, we've lost 90,000 manufacturing facilities in this country, millions of jobs.
And these weren't, you know, low-end jobs. These were jobs that paid decent wages, had
good benefits, retirement security.
They were specialized. No, I agree with you.
They built communities.
But here's my thing.
But here's the deal.
NAFTA was 30 years ago. The situation that we are dealing with right now, and I agree with you communities. But here's my thing. But here's the deal was that was 30 years ago. The situation that we are dealing with right now.
And I agree with you. I'm on the side of the folks that said they they they they they this did the American workers wrong.
Absolutely. But right now we are dealing with a situation where it's not.
These are blanket tariffs. We are dealing with a situation where manufacturing is not going to come back in two weeks.
So what, how, I'm just, I'm really struggling to figure, to understand how UAW has aligned itself with Trump on this.
So first off, NAFTA is still causing us to lose jobs in this country.
Our broken trade system is still causing us to lose jobs in this country.
And no one from either party
has been willing to even address the issue for 30 plus years. That's the first thing.
And we support tariffs as a tool, a tool in the toolbox, not the end all be all. We got to fix
the broken trade system. But tariffs are a motivator to make these companies do the right
thing. When we're talking auto, I can't speak for,
you know, penguins and all this other crazy stuff going on, but I'll speak to what I know.
And, you know, when we talk about parts, there's an exclusion for parts sector right now. There's
a, the reason there's this exclusion is because we've been talking with the administration
about how to make these tariffs work. And they've been working with us on that.
It's frustrating to me watching this exchange.
I would love if Sean Payne would come on the show.
I'd love to have a conversation with him.
I'm sympathetic.
There's nothing that he says, though, that is incorrect about NAFTA
and about its impact specifically on the auto industry,
about the fact that these terrible trade deals continue to harm American workers.
All of that is completely accurate.
The question is then what are you going to do about it?
And if you're just doing this chaotic tariffs are on, they're off, they're across the board, they're not across the
board, 145% for China, yes auto, no auto, et cetera, it's only going to make the situation
for American workers worse across the board. And the auto industry is one where, you know,
if Trump was just targeting like, okay, we're going to restore the auto industry, here's how
we're going to do it, and it was intelligent and coupled with industrial policy, as we've talked
about, I would support it. I supported Trump's tariffs on the first term. I supported Biden's
tariffs on his term. I would support something like that. That is not what we're talking about.
So I don't think you can afford in this time to ignore the rest of what is going on with these
tariffs because they are going to hurt. They are going to be a regressive tax on working class people. They're going to hurt workers much
more than they help workers. And the other thing is, you know, if you listen to Trump talk,
and I get into some of this today in my monologue, like he doesn't want to restore the 1950s height
of post-war manufacturing. At that time, you had about 50% unionization in terms of factory
workers. So you had a lot of labor power. You had an expanding social safety net. You had a post-war
global economy where the U.S. was kind of the only game in town because so many other countries had
been completely devastated. But that's not what he's looking to restore. And you can tell that
by the fact that he's a union buster and by that Doge is gutting the government so that it can't
regulate big business. He wants to go back, and he talks about this, to the Gilded Age. He
wants to go back to the time before there were labor regulations, before there were child labor
regulations, when, you know, it was before the progressive era when you really have a large
union movement and labor power and before there was an income tax. That's what he wants to go back
to. And, you know, these sort of
like, you know, sweatshop jobs, because there's nothing inherent about factory jobs that makes
them good jobs. It was the particular moment in time and also the fact that we had this very large
union movement. You have to have all of those pieces if you're actually going to restore
something good for American workers. Trump has no interest in any of that. He wants to go in the
complete opposite direction.
So while, listen, I get where Sean Fain's coming from, like I, you know, I've seen him be very
critical of Trump in other areas. I understand his mindset, but this from Trump is going to
completely go in the opposite direction of what you would want from American workers. And we
already know because we've seen Stellantis already do layoffs as a consequence of these tariffs.
The difficulty for him is he has to support
tariffs conceptually. And look, I get it. Like you said, in the position that he's in on MSNBC,
people who are totally against tariffs, he's like, no, that's not what I'm saying. What I'm calling
for is X, Y, and Z tariff combined with this policy. The difficulty that you run into is that
with the chaos of the Trump administration now, at this point, you never know whether a tariff is on or not. You literally, and the funny thing is, even the
automakers don't know. They have to call their lawyers and be like, what's the guidance from
the White House today? And then the next day, Trump comes out and likes, actually, there's no
exceptions. And you're like, oh, okay. I mean, how can you do business or employ people?
How is the domestic auto market going to be if we're in a recession?
Right, exactly. How is that going to be for workers and layoffs?
And what level of investment in the U.S. do you think that you typically get during a recession?
Which is what he is actively courting and what we may already be tipping into based on some of the estimates.
Yeah, I mean, 2009 killed GM and they destroyed them.
They really never came back.
Yeah, that's right.
Ford, you got to hand it to them.
They were able to climb out, and they never took any government money.
I remember reading a really good book about how they were able to handle it,
but they're the exception, and they're not the rule.
The U.S. auto industry really never recovered from that.
And then there was that whole cash for clunkers thing.
They had to come in and get a bailout.
That destroyed the used car market.
It was a disaster.
Yeah.
It's all bad.
The bailout was very unpopular at the time, but then it ended up being like, was one of
those things that the Obama administration kind of took a risk on because when it was
being, when it was being proposed, it was actually really profoundly unpopular, but
they did it anyway to save those jobs and it ended up being obviously the right call.
Yeah.
I don't know.
I still think there should have been, I don't know. I still think there should have been, I don't know, just,
if you look at the net effect, GM and Stellantis, like Ford has been an actual decent success.
GM and Stellantis, yes, they paid the money back and all that, but like in terms of saving the jobs and the industrial base and all that, didn't really happen. I mean, they did close a lot of
plants. They closed them in the interim, but you know, in a five-year overall period, a lot of
those jobs did get eventually outsourced. A lot of them went to Mexico and or to China. Globalization just ate away at it.
And the worst part is they don't create good products. Their products are bad, even today.
You can see, with respect to all these other car manufacturers around the world, they laugh at
them. It would have been such a calamity for Michigan.
I'm not disagreeing. I think it was right to save the job, but there should have been a much more
conservative effort to make sure that they're globally competitive, and it just didn't happen.
And now we are where we are today, some 15 years later, where you have BYD, Xiaomi,
and all these other people, GM and stuff, they can't make an electric car that's decent to save
their life. They'd make it for like $90,000. It's a piece of shit. You know, nobody's other people, GM and stuff. They can't make an electric car that's decent to save their life. They make it for like $90,000.
It's a piece of shit.
You know, nobody was going to buy it.
And so, yeah, we're in a tough spot here in our car industry.
It's not good.
DNA test proves he is not the father. Now I'm taking the inheritance. Wait a minute, John. Who's not the father? We'll be money back. Hold up. They could lose their family and millions of dollars. Yep. Find out how it ends by listening to the OK Storytime podcast
on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.
Camp Shane, one of America's longest running weight loss camps for kids,
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Nothing about that camp was right. It was really actually like a horror movie.
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that fueled its decades-long success. You can listen to all episodes of Camp Shame one week
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So don't wait. Head to Apple Podcasts and subscribe today.
Have you ever thought about going voiceover?
I'm Hope Woodard, a comedian, creator, and seeker of male validation.
I'm also the girl behind Boy Sober,
the movement that exploded in 2024.
You might hear that term and think it's about celibacy,
but to me, Boy Sober is about understanding yourself
outside of sex and relationships.
It's flexible, it's customizable,
and it's a personal process.
Singleness is not a waiting room.
You are actually at the party right now.
Let me hear it.
Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app,
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