Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 4/15/26: Troop Surge To Iran, Dire Economic Warnings, JD Vance Begs Voters, Italy Clashes With Israel

Episode Date: April 15, 2026

Emily and Saagar discuss troops surged to Iran, dire economic warnings, JD Vance begs young voters, Italy clashes with Israel. Lauren Conlin: https://x.com/conlin_lauren   Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: https://x.com/academic_la  Robert Pape: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/    To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com  Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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All right. Hit it up. There we go. Fascist. Oh, we almost put the arm in an interesting way. The Roman, as Elon would say. Roman salute. Here, fascist points with Sager and Emily.

Got to keep the arm down, right? You got to keep the volume down, man. The volume? What? This is what's all about, Emily. All right, we can find, remember, you know, all of our predecessors, they would speak loudly and formally to,

to command attention. All right, I'm giving the critics enough there. What are we starting with? What are we starting with? We have a huge breaking news here. Thousands of more troops that are headed to the Middle East. We added it in as of this morning, so we're going to do a little bit of mini block here at the top just to update everybody on the situation with Iran.

We're also going to talk about inflation. That is by far our biggest story. We have the IMF, which is warning about rapid inflation, spreading across the entire global economy. Gas prices, $4.11 a gallon here. Beef is going up. fertilizer is drying up for farmers. Things are not looking good here in the United States of America. Emily, we're going to talk about polling.

And the vice president at an event yesterday with TPUSA did not look good for him for the administration, basically a stadium, which was like, what, a quarterful? What would you say? I mean, look, bad, bad, bad. Bad look. Yeah, it was bad look. And giving some pleas to younger conservatives to not flee the movement. We'll see how it works out.

Europe, this is a fascinating story. So we covered the Pope fracas yesterday. It turns out now the Italian. Fracas, okay. Yeah, it's a good, you know, we're a pepper a little SAT verbiage in here. So we had the Pope fracas yesterday. We thought it was over. No, it's not over. So the Italian Prime Minister, Maloney, she's defending the Pope. And now Trump is trashing her. And then the Italian Prime Minister is now suspending a defense agreement with Israel. So really fascinating in terms of how this war just continues to rewrite. geopolitics. Shail Ben Ephraim is going to join us. He is a geopolitical analyst. He's in Israeli. He's going to join us to talk about this Lebanese-Israeli meeting that happened here in Washington

yesterday. I believe it was the highest-level talks since the 1980s. So interesting, but of course, Israel wants to keep bombing Lebanon, violating the ceasefire that originally was agreed upon by the United States. So I'm interested to hear what he said. And he had a very fascinating breakdown and kind of interest in the domestic politics of Israel, which I didn't fully, and I didn't fully know. And then finally, we are going to talk about these scientists, and there is a now 10th missing scientists who is linked to all of these missing scientists. We're going to be joined by Lauren Conlin of Pop Crime TV. I saw a segment that she did, Emily, phenomenal job. She's one of those like true crime people, and she really delves in to the details. So it's much better than hear from

an idiot like me. And then, of course, everybody's favorite, Professor. Robert Pape, the escalation trap, will be joining us at 10 a.m. to break down, I think not only just these latest troops into the region, but also kind of the bigger picture, whether we're in a real ceasefire or not. We're always interested to hear what he has to say. Before we get to that, thank you to everybody subscribing

to the show, breaking points.com. We are doing the AMA today. We are doing the AMA today. We went a little late yesterday, so we weren't able to do it. And then, of course, if you're listening to this on a podcast, please share an episode with a friend. And on YouTube, go ahead and hit subscribe.

to our channel. 2.02 just doesn't do it for me. What's your number? Oh, you want. Yeah. But it needs to be clean. What's your clean? 50 million. 50 million. Oh my God. That's why we're here. That's like Mr. Beast nonsense. Let's be honest. We got to set reasonable goals. Crystal's a 2.5. I'm 2.22. We could stop right there. 2-22. Yeah, that's good. I like nice, clean. I like 2.0, but then immediately went up to 2.01. Thanks to you. I think you're the person who gave you and Ryan were begging. And I was like, No, you got to stop. We had to step in two.

All right, let's go ahead and hit it. Let's get to the mini block. So turning now to these ground troop news, I'm going to put this up here on the screen. Washington Post, Dan Lamath, reporting U.S. sends thousands more troops to the Middle East as Trump seeks to squeeze Iran. The deployment includes sailors and Marines due to arrive as the administration attempts to enforce a maritime blockade against the regime in Tehran. Pentagon sending some 6,000 troops aboard the aircrews. aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush, several warships are escorting it. About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Group and its embarked Marine Corps Task Force.

The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are also expected to arrive near the end of this month. So this infusion of firepower, a quote, appears likely to coalesce with warships already in the Middle East as a two-week ceasefire is set to expire. The troops will then join the estimated 50,000 personnel. the Pentagon has said, are involved in operations against Iran. So, Emily, I mean, something Crystal and I always point out, these ceasefires, there's talks, there's reports, there's all this, you've got to follow the troops. You don't send two or three aircraft carriers to the Middle East, sail it around the horn of Africa, all to come there with tens of thousands of troops that are all on their way,

and the 82nd Airborne is already there, and you've got these Marine Expeditionary Forces that are coming from Asia, not to use them, at least so far in the Trump administration. Every time there was thousands of troops in the Caribbean, all there talk, talk, talk about Maduro. At the end of the day, what do we do? We went and we kidnapped him. So here with Iran, it's very unlikely usually to not have all these forces and not use them. You could say it is a deterrent effect, and it certainly has been in U.S. history. But with this president, when the troops are there, he tends to use them. That's just my general analysis. I'm curious for your view. Well, it's interesting you say that because actually just within the last, last 20 or so minutes. The Associated Press is out with a report. I'm reading from the, yeah,

so they're saying that-M-2, please, while she's talking. Yeah, we'll pop that up on the screen. So they're saying that in principle, there's an agreement on the table. And this is what is interesting about your point, Sager, that you're following the troops and not necessarily just the deals. Because Trump said on, we're going to cover this in a bit, Maria Bartaromo show this morning, it's going to be a big two days in the Iran ceasefire negotiations. Pay attention to the next two days. So is this what his two day was at this in principle agreement? Is that what he was telegraphing? Yeah. Watch the next 48 hours. And how significant actually is that? Let's break it down, right? So this is an AP headline. It comes from Cairo. So always take a look at the deadline. It says mediators moved

closer Wednesday to extending the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and restarting negotiations. to salvage the fragile truce before it expires. Senior Iranian military official threatened to halt trade in the region if the U.S. does not lift its naval blockade. So that's all we got, all right? Note the dateline. It's from Cairo. And nobody else is running with this.

Nobody else is running it. It's the Egyptians who are leaking it. That's fine. Maybe it's true. But Egypt has it really been the driving force? So let's give again a bigger picture to the audience. It's Egypt, it's Turkey, and it's Pakistan, which are these like negotiators and or ceasefire, like, you know, they're the ones who are mediating between all three of the

countries. Egypt actually has pretty good relations and has been on the phone quite a bit, both the U.S. and with Iran. Yeah, but even that, you've got a mediator here saying, in principle and extension. Maybe that's true. However, even if it is true, an extension of a ceasefire is not an end to hostilities, and we have all of these bigger picture things. Again, with Venezuela, we saw on and off and on and off until assets could move to the region.

With Gaza as well, by the way. Go into it. Go ahead. Well, I was just to say, I mean, you, how many times did we hear in principle, I mean, maybe not that exact phrase, but over and over again, Trump was saying, similar to what he's doing now, stretched out over six months or so, that we have a deal, we have an agreement, or we're very close to ending the war. And so it's part of his, I mean, at least he sees it as part of his negotiation of just putting things out in public and hoping that it sticks with the American people and then

hoping that it moves the deal in one direction or another. Everybody, I mean, let's remember from that New York Times story is that Trump had decided to attack Iran long before all of those negotiations had even happened in the month of February. He basically decided to attack them in early February. So all of those Jared Kushner talks. Great point. It's all K-Faib. No. It's a great point.

I mean, something tells me this time he actually does want a deal because he's panicking a little bit because of price of oil, the economy. But you never know. He kind of seemed like he wanted a deal at that time, too. and you got all these tens of thousands of troops there, you just have to think on a long enough timeline with Israel and with Trump and the unpredictability and the lack of real good faith happening in these negotiations.

And remember what I flagged for everybody yesterday, the technical experts. I talked with some few others. There was basically no real technical expert in the room in Islamabad. There was the vice president. There was a defense attache. The defense attache, that's nothing.

Like, we need to be talking serious, civilian and military nuclear scientists, the same people who tried to have hash out JCPOA. On the Iranian side, remember this too. They're terrified. They can't even make a deal because they have to go back and then hand off a piece of paper to 10 different people just to get an okay from the Supreme Leader. It probably takes two or three days just to talk to him, like bin Laden and the courier, remember? Because they don't want him to be killed. Right. And then from our side, JD, at a minimum, we know, had to phone Trump six or seven times in the middle of negotiation.

So he screwed him. He had absolutely no authority to make a deal, right? So you put all those together, the machinery of this, it can't happen in two weeks, maybe even in three weeks. In three weeks, what they will say, let's say even if we do have some big picture thing, we've reached a memorandum of understanding pending, working out the detail. Exactly. Well, what is Israel's masterpiece? Every single time, they slither in and they're like, oh, well, what we'll do is this one particular red line, that's a violation, and then they try to move it and move it and they work on Trump, some bad faith stuff, and the next thing, you know, we're back to bombing or something bad can happen. All of this has just been, you know, proof positive of why you shouldn't

conduct yourself. And also, let's put M3 up there on the screen. Again, just a flag for everybody. Iran's top military command came out today and says it will disrupt trade flow in the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea if U.S. naval actions targeting Iranian shipping continue said any such move would be viewed as a breach of the ceasefire. So there you go. I mean, as the Iranian the Iranian Navy or the Iranian naval assets, the small assets that they have for blocking the straight, so far, at least according to CENTCOM, they have all turned around. Nobody knows if that's true. Remember our segment yesterday. There's a lot of contradictory evidence. But CENTCOM says the U.S. military, we've turned all of these Iranian ships around. Let's assume it's true. Okay. So in that

scenario, what it means is let's put M1 up there on the screen, is that Iran faces a halt to oil production within weeks, if the blockade succeeds, they only have 16 days of output for storage before they have to do the same thing the Gulf did and turn their refineries down, which would be a devastating blow to their economy. So that's a ticking clock right there in terms of where they have to go before they face basically economic annihilation. And we know from them that if they face economic annihilation, they will face and produce economic annihilation for Saudi Arabia by closing the Red Sea and the Babal Mandab straight through the Houthis and their proxies, which is why, as we reported to everybody yesterday, a U.S. carrier has to sail not through the

Red Sea as it normally would, but all the way around Africa, you know, costing hundreds of millions of dollars and delaying their arrival by, I don't even know, I think it's like two weeks of sale time. So there's a lot of dangerous stuff here on the horizon. Yeah, the last thing I'll say is barring some significant concessions that would be really surprising from Iran and really sudden from Iran. it's not, we're not on the off ramp right now. It's just, that's just not what's happening.

So that's, he's trying to almost, I don't want to sound glib, but like project a self-fulfilling prophecy into the universe. And it's KFab, as you said. I think that's good way to put up. Yeah, that's what Trump, Trump is trying to do,

if you ever read the Steve Jobs biography, they talk a lot about the reality distortion field. And that's fine when we're talking about like a blue Mac, okay, but that's not like a specific shade of blue. Bring them back. What was the, I think it was called Bondi Blue. The Bondi Blue, 1997 Mac. Gorgeous computer.

All right. Thank you, Steve, for forcing that. However, that's not what we're talking about here. We're not talking about a perfectly symmetrical cube computer, right? Which he once insisted on, we're talking about geopolitics and geopolitics and trying to force a reality in which something, and where he's already been deeply humbled and come at great cost to the U.S. So that's our little mini update here at the top. Anything else you want to say?

To be fair, he has not been deeply humble. That would be impossible. Well, yeah, I mean, maybe not publicly, but behind the scenes, I definitely think so. Agreed. All right, inflation, shall we? Inflation. We have Donald Trump. He gave an interesting interview here with Maria Bartriomo.

Here, he is saying that the Iran war is closer than ever. And, guys, let's just run it concurrent with him talking about inflation. So let's take a listen to these two clips. I had to divert because if I didn't do that, right now you would have Iran with a nuclear weapon. And if they had a nuclear weapon, you would be calling everybody over there, sir, and you don't want to do that. Well, you keep saying was. Is this war over? I think it's close to over here. I mean, I view it as very close to over. You know what? If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country.

And we're not finished. We'll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly. Is that going to be enough to offset the increase in gasoline prices? It will be because gasoline is coming down very soon and very big. So you think gas prices will be lower before the midterm elections? I think there'll be much lower before midterm, much lower, yes. Okay. Now, you've suggested.

I mean, that's on the assumption that we stop a country that cannot have a nuclear weapon from, if you give Iran a nuclear weapon, weapon. Do you want to see bad stock markets? You won't have a country. The world will be blown up. You can't do it. You cannot do it. So on the assumption, we have that settled, hopefully long before that, and maybe almost immediately. Could be very soon. Could be very soon on the assumption that we have it solved by them. Yeah, I don't think so. So it's what's today's date? It's April. All right. So the midterms are in six months. What we know from right now is that the amount of oil backlog and just shock generally to production is a minimum of three to four months before things can somewhat

resume to normal. That's if things end today. All right? So not some like, oh, in the future and all of that. So we have 27% cut from OPEC. Let's put, what is it? Can we just pause because while that was happening, I went and pulled up with Donald Trump actually told Maria Barter Romo herself two days ago on Sunday morning futures. She asked him the exact same question. Do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections? This was Donald Trump's answer. I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be or the same or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same. I think this won't be that much longer. He's saying in two days ago, an interview with the exact same person to the exact same question,

maybe actually it would be higher. And then two days later, he's like, no, no, no, it'll be much lower. It's coming down soon. Right. And let's put a, what is it, A6 on the screen just to give everybody an idea. we still remain at $4.11 a gallon here nationally. And, I mean, in some ways, the national price isn't really, like, reflective. If we take the major population center, so let's take, like, what's the biggest population in the country, California, they're paying $5.87 a gallon. Next is what, Texas, right? So they're paying $3.76 a gallon.

Florida, $4.14 a gallon. New York State, $4.12 a gallon. Pennsylvania, $4.13 a gallon. I mean, if you actually look at the most populous states in the country, it's actually higher in most cases, except for Texas where all the refineries are, from what the national average is. And, you know, even the Pacific Northwest is just getting absolutely hammered, but also, you know, the entire Estella corridor from everything I'm seeing is well over $4 a gallon on top of Florida. And so, yeah, like maybe like more rural states or, you know,

North Dakota or Nebraska or 360 or something, but the vast majority of people are paying well into $4 a gallon, which is at this point, I saw gas analysts say that they have spent, tens of billions more on gas than if this war had never happened. So it's not just about the cost of the United States, which is probably what, I don't know, 50, 60 billion, just in sheer hard cost from what the Iran wars cost. Think about all the money out of our pocketbooks that has just spent on gas, not to mention everything else, right? And so with inflation, it's really pernicious. Let's put A1 up here. This was from the IMF. They say that the Middle East War will slow global economic growth. The conflict will fuel another bout of inflation. War in the Middle East has

upended the global economy, and they say specifically they have downgraded all growth force class globally, exposing the economic fallout. Quote, the global outlook is abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The war interrupted what had been a steady, steady growth trajectory. Here's the kill shot. In the best case scenario, the fund expects global growth to fall to 3.1% this year from 3.4. That is down from the 3.3 that the fund projected in January. And it is also lower than 3.4 growth that it was prepared to project before the war broke out and oil shipments across the Middle East happened. Now, of course, GDP growth and all of that is not everything, as we've covered ad nauseum here on the show. But I think in this case, what we do know

is that it's going to hit specifically the consumer sector, which is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. We'll see what happens with the Fed, too. Right, exactly. High inflation. You know, how are you going to affect rates? They're almost certainly not going to cut rates. What's the mortgage rate at today? Like 7%.

It's up there. It's an unanswer question for Trump when he, yeah, that's... Disaster, right? And then his own guy, what is it? Kevin Warsh, I think, is before the U.S. Senate. Sometimes soon, his vote is supposed to happen. He's going to face significant questions over it. He may not even get confirmed, as I understand it, because he has problems.

with what's his name, Tom Tillis, is that right, over at North Carolina. Yes. So there's that. There's also, we had to comment on this. We talked yesterday about the Doordash Grandma, Grimm sentence here in the U.S. She was brought to the Oval Office to talk about how she, greatly she has benefited from no tax on tips. You ask me, you hear a story like hers. That story shouldn't be there, period, and definitely shouldn't be helped by no tax on tips.

Let's take a listen to her. My tips were over half of my income from last year. That's a life changer. Yes, it is. It is. And when, you know, like I said, when you're dealing with someone that has gone through cancer and, you know, you love them, you don't want to lose them, so you do everything that you can.

And, you know, you go through your life savings, but there's no tax on tips. And the help from DoorDash is like, Life-changing. I mean, what, God bless this lady. But, you know, for me, it's like what kind of society we living in here? Ladies, delivered DoorDash, Grandma, who was talking about her husband's cancer treatment and blowing out her life. This is, this is sick, right?

Well, and Trump was just positively gleeful about the entire thing. And this is, I mean, he's supposed to be a shock to the system. That's I pitched himself to the American people. And here he's doing essentially a DoorDash commercial because, you know, she's emblazoned with the DoorDash logo. And God bless her. She is amazing. I love her. Yeah, she's not complaining. I know, exactly. And she was a good sport.

But bigger picture, you're like, come on, man. Like, this shouldn't even, door to ask grandma should not be a sentence I'm ever uttering. Right. And like, some of the Trump people were, he tipped her a hundred bucks. I'm like, oh, that's so disgusting. Grim, yeah. So disgusting. But this is the point that you're making is that it's a symbol of a really broken system.

And to see him just gleefully enjoying that symbol of a broken system, It was pretty gross. Yeah, I mean, look, you could choose just to be it a couple different ways. I think, you know, we were talking about earlier, and I was like, you know, my heart breaks every time you see an older person just delivering DoorDash just because you're like, man, like, look, I don't want to be very clear. Like, I'm not saying there's no dignity or anything in that, right? Like, if you need money and you're working, like, I got all the respect in the world.

But I'm saying what kind of a system is it where people who are of retiring age have to do it to pay for their husband's health care, right? for cancer treatment. That's where I have a real problem. And yeah, with Trump, I mean, they're talking about no tax on tips. Okay. I mean, look, I'm not going to begrudge anybody for saving $11,000 on their tips, you know, which I believe is the maximum amount that a lot of these workers can. I think that's great. However, what do we also know is that, yeah, healthcare premiums, which in a 24, 25%, I think, on Obamacare, and even generally, for most people, especially if you're not W-2 and you're 1099

and you have to have some semblance of healthcare outside the system and you have a higher deductible. I mean, I remember what was it? Like they were talking about $5,000 baby checks. Yeah. Do you remember this discourse? They were like, we're going to give $5,000 to everybody. I'm like, yeah, that wouldn't even cover my hospital deductible.

Yeah. You know, like literally would not even cover the deductible that was hit whenever I had a child for a deduct, you know, for, I'm not saying you wouldn't take it. I think everybody would take it. But let's be honest here about what the overall effect So, yeah, this is a sick, to me, again, sick system, DoorDash Grandma shouldn't exist. Like, there shouldn't be a DoorDash Grandma, period.

DoorDash Grandma should just have, like, the ability. I mean, we know this from, I know a lot of people, I talk a lot of trash on boomers and on property tax, et cetera. But, you know, I think I'm, I think everybody knows I'm definitely not talking about these people and the vast majority of people. What is it? 50 something percent of elderly U.S. citizens rely almost entirely on social security. Yeah. Like, that's really grim, right? I mean, something has gone very, very wrong if you don't have a dollar to your name

except the Social Security check, which is coming your way every month. Well, and may not ever come the way of people our age who are paying into the system. So, yeah. And we're wildly, I mean, like, we're wildly overtaxed, so I think that, I'm talking as a country, not certain people who are wildly undertaxed. But this is to the point about how bleak it is, this woman is now in a position to just, As she said, she wants her husband to live. Like that was, when she said that,

she was like, you care about them and you love them and you want them to live. And Donald Trump has this tweak to the system. I like no tax on tips. When you have a divided Congress, you have a really hard time doing anything but tweaks. So I think that's great. Republicans have zero, zero, zero, zero interest

in fixing the health care system. Yeah. So that's, to me, it's just an extra layer of grossness that you're kind of celebrating what is good, but is ultimately a tweak without having any interest in fixing the system. And these gig economy companies are, to the extent they are actually profitable, not all of them are. They're just propped up by cash infusions that may not be sustainable. And you have millennials getting used to having 60-something-year-old boomers trying to pay for cancer treatment,

delivering them McDonald's like she gave to Trump, for $30 for a couple. for a couple of burgers, it's not a sustainable system. It's not a good system, but it's not a sustainable system either. I agree. Let's put A3 on the screen just to show you some of the more vulnerable Americans what they're getting hit with right now. This is from the Farm Bureau. They just released this yesterday, quote,

most farmers cannot afford fertilizer. An overwhelming majority of America's farmers who responded to a nationwide survey say they cannot afford to purchase enough fertilizer to get them through the year. percentage who purchased fertilizer very significantly by region, they say that 70% of respondents say that fertilizer is now so expensive, they may not be able to buy all the fertilizer that they need. More than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state,

took the survey. Eight in the southern U.S. say they can't afford all the supplies, followed by Northeast and West at 69 and 66, respectively, compared to some 48 of the farmers in the Midwest. So obviously this will have huge impact. But what they say specifically here is that all of this traces back to the Iran more. Spring planting decisions depend heavily on access to fertilizer and diesel fuel, both of which have been impacted by geopolitical risk. Since the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30% while combined fuel and fertilizer costs

have increased 20 to 40. Urea prices have increased by 47% since the end of February. marking the largest month-to-month percent increase in the price of urea in history. These increases are occurring when producers were already facing tight margins for many consecutive years. So remember, food inflation was already one of the worst, you know, things that was hitting the U.S. And then you have this fertilizer problem, which will directly show up in the price of food.

I don't know, what, six months, probably. And even some of the spot prices for things that you will see in the grocery store are already increasing dramatically. A5, please. Can we put it up there on the screen? This is about the price of beef. So the live cattle wholesale price in Chicago, I feel like I'm, you know,

1800s commodity candles. While everyone is rightfully focused on gasoline and oil, this is Javier Blas writing, the meat market is not giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale price in Chicago have now reached an all-time high surpassing last October's peak. So you could see that pretty high peak that happened in October of 2025.

That's when the Trump administration was kind of throwing a lot at the cattle problem. But you can see they only got a marginal decrease in the overall price far higher than where things were back in 2020. And then just take a look there at where things are right now. So, I mean, this means... Good for the big guys. Yeah, exactly. It's great for the big meatpacking households and for everybody else. but I mean, if you just take a look at this, like the vast majority of food at home inflation

is apparently now running some 3% year over year wages are at 2.4. So there you go. Food is wiping that out. I saw another chart yesterday. I don't think we have it, which was just about Kimland of inflation from January of 2021. It's 21%. I mean, that is a one-fifth overall increase in a five-year period. That's why, I mean, people talk about. about sticker shock. And the thing is, I've always felt this about sticker shock. You don't absorb sticker shock month to month. Like, I told that story about McDonald's, about going to the McDonald's and, you know, getting a medium fry or something. And it was 459. I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, wait, what? Like, yeah, you know, this, because this is not, you know, I don't do,

this is probably the first medium fry I bought in like years. And I was like, whoa, man. Like, in my head, that's 99 cents. Like, I'm like, what the hell is going on? We print 450. Yes, I did use the app for all the trolls that are in the comment. You get trolled about not using the app. Yeah, well, because one time I paid like $20, and then all these people were furious. They're like, well, you have to use the app. I'm like, okay, I'll use the app. You gave them all my data and my, you know, now I get 90 notifications a day about free breakfast.

And I'll say, fine, you know, I did it all apparently still to pay $459 for me, for eating fry. I'm like, what the hell is going on here? But I feel like that's what most people just remember, you know, those viral images every day of old Chipotle prices from you and I are in college, right? Paying like $8 and now you go and they're like, oh, we have a new sauce and it's two, you're like, whoa, like you have a bowl's like $14.15, and new, you're like $16, $17, $18 with tax, it's madness.

Yeah, I went to Chick-fil-A the other day and I couldn't believe the bill for like too basic. Yeah, it was shocking. Yeah, same thing. I don't go. So what's the price now? What's like a spicy chicken sandwich go for these days? You think it happens on top of my head? I don't just thinking.

I'm just thinking. So in my, I'll tell you what I think it should cost, four bucks. I think it should cost four bucks. For the meal or for just a sandwich? Just a sandwich. Oh, interesting. All the time, again, this is what I would remember. Maybe, again, maybe I'm being delusional.

Let's see what it's running for right now. It's, hoo-hoo, all right. It's between 539 and 699. This is according to Gemini. There you go. All right. 699. All right.

Sucks out here. Last thing, message from Senator Roger Marshall. GOPP, Senator, here's what he says about gas prices. Let's take a listen. Good news is we're the leading producer of oil in the world. We're exporting more than we're importing. We're importing. We're not standing in lines that overall wages have been growing faster than inflation under this president.

Here it is. It's going to be tax day very soon. And then Americans are going to get an extra $1,500 or $1,500 rebate as well. So I'm sorry the gas prices are going up, but help is on his way. And your national security, yes, is even more important than your pocketbook. book. I mean, so actually, the AP did an analysis of this, interestingly enough, showing that with gas prices where they are right now, if it holds steady through the rest of the year,

the average tax refund is going to be, or actually the average tax savings is to be totally erased by the increase in gas prices. So to Roger Marshall's point, that doesn't even check out. The sentence that came out of his mouth, I'm sorry that gas prices are high. Yeah, good luck with that. Good luck with that. Dude. The midterms.

Yeah, I mean, look, this is like the most ridiculous. And it's so crazy to me how not, can you name a single Republican off the top of your head, not named Thomas Massey, who has said anything even remotely interesting about this war and about the overall effect? Anything. No. That hasn't reiterated this. I mean, you know, I saw something today. Tim Shee, Montana, the guy who shot himself, right, allegedly. I forgot about that.

Yeah. He claimed, what did he say that it was about whatever? Megan Kelly basically nailed him dead to rights on that one. But he came out to me about the blockade of the blockade, and he's like, what a judo incredible move. And you're like, dude, like, is this really, is this really, you know, like, I don't think he's a stupid person. He's a seal.

I think he's a seal. Yeah, he's like a former naval, I think he's a former operator of some special forces or something. I don't think he's dumb, right? And it's like, they really default to the lowest IQ level of defense. And everyone's like just sitting there eating this slop soup as if, It's, you know, a reasonable political thing to say. You genuinely would think that people interested in their political future could come up with something better than this nonsense.

But apparently that's how indefensible the entire thing is. It's just so crazy. He is a seal. And also, I found this AP trajectory. They say, according to the Associated Press, quote, the average household would pay $740 more in gas this year, nearly equal to the 748 increase in refunds. Right. that the Tax Foundation, which is conservative, roughly, has estimated the average household will receive.

Boom, gone. Sorry, Roger Marshall. Yeah, literally dead. Right, exactly. And that's just now. And that's also just gas. That doesn't even actually account for how the gas prices are trickling into everything else that you're paying for.

Yeah, I mean, you know how everybody always does, like the Thanksgiving dinner inflation index? Yeah. Someone should do, I mean, honestly, with the beef thing, let's think about it. It's all summer, so it's barbecue season. It's like how much more cumulatively if you want to do burgers or something like that, are you going to pay? Because it's not just a one-time dinner event. It's an entire season of where

this is a significant increase in uptake. I'm going to guess probably at least a few hundred bucks, I think, per household compared to normal. So yeah, there you go. You know that on top of gas. Just last thought, what does this do for Trump's tariffs? How does he deal with tariffs? If he has price increases like this steadily going into the midterms, does it crush his tariff agenda? Yeah, wow. More uncertainty from that. There you go. All right, let's get to polling. Vice President J.D. Vance spoke at a turning point USA event last night at the University of Georgia. It was, let's say, sparsely attended based on pictures of the crowd instead of a massive auditorium. But he also addressed whether young voters, young conservatives, are fully on board with the war in Iran.

Let's take a listen to his answer here. I recognize that a lot of young voters don't love the policy that we have. have in the Middle East. Okay, I understand that. I also know that we've secured the border. We've lowered housing prices now for eight months in a row, and there's going to be more to come beyond that. We've made America energy dominant, which is lowered electricity costs and things like that. We've made it so that we have the lowest murder rate in 127 years. I'm not saying you have to agree with me on every issue. I'm not saying you have to agree with me on every issue. What I'm saying is don't get disengaged because you disagree with the administration on one

topic, get more involved. Make your voice heard even more. That's how we ultimately take the country back. It's not by you, you know, if you get five things you want and one thing you don't want, I see way too many people, especially in sort of the online conservative, you know, Twitter sphere who say, ah, you know, there's no point. No, no, no, no. I wonder if he's actually working out some of his own personal feelings in that answer. Soger, he's like, I see with too many people thinking if you get everything you want, but one thing is bad, they just check out. This is basically, what is this, vote red, no matter. What's the moniker for Republicans? Vote red. I'm not clever enough to come with that on my own. But yeah, I mean, this is a version

of what I have heard my entire adult life. I know. Is, yeah, you voted for X, Y, and Z. You got D. You should be grateful for D. Yes. And we will continue to fight for X, Y, and Z. And that's why you have to come out and vote in the midterms. And look, I mean, if you were a dyed in the wool Republican, he's not wrong. But most people are not like that. And that is the problem that these politicians never understand. Well, the coalitions you need to win elections, aren't like that?

The coalitions who need to win elections, by and large, you tell me if I'm wrong, are mostly single issue. Most people are not like, you have not sat around a long time. You have, like, kind of a vision of like how you want society and everything kind of stems from that. When people go to the ballot box, like, I'm pissed off about gas prices, inflation, what we just talked about. He said he was going to lower gas prices. Boom, cool, easy to go. AOC Trump voters, who we interviewed after the election. And the Zoran Mamdani Trump voter, who are those types of people? Pissed off about intervention in the Middle East,

pissed off about inflation, decide to vote Trump. Period. Period. There's really not much else to the entire story. Right? Or we, I think we did a segment here, man, long ago, about IVF. And there were, I would say, several thousand, tens of thousands Americans who voted purely because Trump said, I'm going to make IVF free. Yeah. That was it. Like, genuinely, a lot of people actually are single issue. So when he says stuff like I know a lot of people are upset about our policy in the Middle East, however, you can't ignore all of these other things, I don't think he gets that a lot of people don't care about any of that.

Like, anti-war, I'll tell you for me. I would say probably say my number one position. And when we say anti-war, obviously that's complicated. But I would say anti-regime change war in the Middle East. Can we narrowly define it to that category and or ending the war in Ukraine? So you support this word because it did not change the regime? Good point. Even though that was the intention from the very beginning.

Open-ended conflicts here in the Middle East. That I would say I was probably going to say my number one priority, number one, whenever the election came around. And I don't think I'm alone in that. I'm hyper-realistic and cynical. I understand how political coalitions and all of that work. But for me, and I do think also for a lot of other people, when you were to combine that with multiple other betrayals and or lack of promises with the general knowledge of the country going down the pipe, you can't help but say, yeah, no, man, that's not happening right now, right? Yeah, and we have some information here from Harry Enton to get to on how people are actually reacting because, to your point, Trump campaigned as the man. who would not be George W. Bush saying,

we aren't the world's policemen and then very much becoming the world's policeman, Barack Obama campaigning on hope and change, and then continuing a lot of neoconservative policies just with different framing, Trump said, we're not going to do that. I'm not going to be like that person. I'm not going to, we're just not doing it.

And so to see him doing it, I think is going to have an added effect or an added, it will fuel the dislike. or the lack of favorability that the public has with Trump. So let's turn it over here to Harriet and who's looking at an average of CBS, CNN, and Fox News polls on Trump's numbers here. It's the group that helped put him in the White House in 2016. And then again, in 2024, the group that shifted tremendously from 2012 to 2016 and put him in the White House. We are talking about non-college white voters, and he is sliding right into the water.

This is a rut-row moment to quote the great Scooby-Doo. Trump's net approval rating with non-college whites. Look at this. In February of 2025, it was plus 32 points. Down it goes, look at Johnny. Johnny is just shocked by this number. And now it is minus two points. That is a 34-point shift.

And I will note this as an average of polls. This is not just one poll. I've averaged three different polls here, three big pollsters. And what we see is Donald Trump actually underwater with non-college whites, who of course put him in the White House. Really moment? Yes, really, John.

Let's talk about the economy. It's the economy smarty when I'm talking with Mr. Berman. Just take a look here. I mean, again, look at this. On the economy is net approval rating in non-college rights. You go back to February 2025. He was 26 points above water. Look at this shift.

Minus 15 points. 15 points underwater with non-college whites when it comes to Donald Trump's net approval rating on the economy. That is an over 40-point shift away from the president with a key core group of his rut row. What about the war? Well, the war ain't helping him because just take a look here. Non-college whites, net approval rating of U.S. military action against Iran, minus five points. You think that's low come over to this side of the screen. How about Trump on Iran? Minus 13 points, a very

unlucky 13 indeed for the president of the United States with a key core group of his. It turns out he's aliening a lot of folks with this war, not just the Pope's. Let's talk about a state that Barack Obama won in 2012, and Donald Trump has won easily in 2016, 2020, and 2024. How about the Great Buckeye State, the state, the state of Ohio, where, of course, Sherrod Brown is the likely Democratic nominee. Take a look here. Chance that the Dems win the Ohio Senate race, according to the cash prediction market. On John 1, it was a 37% chance.

Not too bad. You come over to this side of the screen, up like a rocket, up to 60% chance. That, in fact, the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race, which, of course, was a state that Donald Trump won by double digits under two years. ago, Donald Trump's chances are sliding. Wow. Sorry, those numbers are unbelievable. I mean, they're believable.

I just about, I disavow his inclusion of Calciads there, though. Yes, of course. Shame on you for doing so. Thank you for saying that, yes. But non-college whites, when Trump put up that famous graphic, they're not coming after me, they're coming after you, and I'm just in the way. That's really who he was talking about in his base, people who feel disempowered. And I think that's why, as we were just talking about,

about this is going to plunge. It's not just pure disagreement. It's also what feels to people like a total visceral breach of trust. It's like a breach of contract situation where he told them X, Y, and Z. They're listening to Andrew Schultz and Rogan. He said to their faces, no new wars. And they picked up on that. Yes, of course, going back 30 years, he's been hawkish on Iran. But when you combine those two things, to the average American, they thought he was just going to be so hawkish. Peace through strength, we didn't get into a war with Iran. There's a difference between being, quote, hawkish and preemptively bombing a country under a cover of diplomacy. There's actually a massive difference. Also, also without the approval of Congress. And look,

politics is ultimately a game of, it's a zero-sum game, and especially the public's attention. And that's why the economy piece here, we just did a whole thing on inflation. We haven't had the time to cover it as much in detail as we would want to. Why? Because there's a damn war going on. Yeah. And look, that's literally life or death. It affect everything. So I don't even begrudge us for not covering it. But that's how the political attention works, too. So you wanted all of this no tax on trips, tips news cycle that came out from yesterday. What did you get? The only clips that came out of that press conference were on the war. Same with Maria Bartriomo. It's all on the war. if you turn on the news, if you are, you know, even remotely engage, all you see is war, war,

war, war. And every day that the war is going on and the attention of the policymakers is on the war, it's not on you and it's definitely not on the issues. And if it is on the issues you care about, it's actively making it worse for where things are today. So that's why it is a totality of a total disaster. Yeah, I mean, again, I forget who pointed this out, but it's so obvious. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris basically lost that election over immigration and inflation. So the Trump administration is very confident about having closed the border. But if inflation then goes up, and you were the anti-inflation guy, also the anti-war guy, arguably, boy, you are in an especially tough position. And they'd already lost the country on immigration long before this entire war even

happened, which is the problem. And so, yeah, look, I mean, their belligerence and confidence and has destroyed the project. I don't know if you've been watching, have you seen Tom Steyer and his new platform? Yes. Yeah, I mean, that's the, that's the future now. Okay? That is the future. They've created. Now, will we eventually swing back? Yeah, I hope so after I read some stuff like that. But, you know, I read that. Conservatives are outraged. I'm like, you guys created this. Like in the same way that you know how liberals are like pearl clutching over mass deportation? I'm like, yo, that's on you. Okay. You guys let the border open. You created a situation where a candidate could stand in front of that sign and then win the popular vote in the next election. Think works both ways whenever it comes to the pendulum, all right? So don't be complaining. And whenever you see Tom Steyer, what do you say? He's like taxpayer-funded, basically legalizing every illegal in all the state of California. I'm like, yeah, you know, I knew this was going to happen. And that's on you at the end of the day.

That's so true. Let's put the next one up here. Israel is just such a big, big part of this. Here is Harry Enten, breaking it down, the under 50 men and their support for Israel. Let's take a listen. They have very much shifted away from Israel. Look at this. Net favorability of Israel among men under the age of 50. In 2022, not too bad, but not too hot to try it either at minus three points.

By 2025, again, down we go, minus 22 points. That is just, that is a 19 point shift in just three years' time. But it gets even worse. Look at this for Israel. Minus 47 points. That's a 44 point shift away from Israel on the net favorability amongst young men who, of course, shifted massively into the Republican column back in 2024, and they have been shifting away from Israel over the last four years.

So what do you take away from that about, you know, it's like, I don't know, it's like the White House. And this is where J.D. is a little bit too self-aware. He has to hug the president, but he can, you know, you can read whenever it comes to this Israeli favorability. He's in the zeitguise, actually. He's in, you know, he's online enough to see, like, this is a real problem. And you can all see, like this. And again, for all the talk, what do we hear from the neocan pro-Israel podcasters. Podcasts, that's not representative of everything. Is that representative of anything? Okay? What does that tell you in terms of? So, yeah, they may not be self-identified Republicans anymore. They were at some point, or they cast their vote for Donald Trump.

By the way, when they talk about that, they're just talking about podcasts they don't like. Right. Right. They're not talking about Dan Bongino. Totally. Right. So they use podcast as a slur for Dave, for Dave, but they don't use it for Dave Smith, but not for Dan Bonino. Yeah. And also, what is Bonino's right? Look, you know, not to get into a rating. Pissing Contest, but like, let's be honest here, all right, in terms of the national. I set you up for that. Yeah, like, yeah, I'm just, look, I don't usually do that, but like, let's take a look at the charts, brother.

I'm, we're not number one, but we're definitely not number 90 or something like that. Well, I just want to say, Ezra Klein had this very controversial column last week about Hassan Piker, but. I don't know. You're dragging me in. No, no, no, let's go. I'm actually not. This is, I promise.

There was a paragraph in it that I thought made a point very well that gets to this polling, right? So there's panic about this polling because it seems like every week we're getting polls just like that. And people who are upset that Israel is losing support in the United States blame Hassan Piker. They blame the, quote, podcasters. They blame anti-Semitism and bigotry. And that's what they point to. Ezra Klein wrote, quote, this is not the result of an international sciop or a profusion of memes. The Israel that young people know is not the Israel that older people remember.

it responded to the savagery of October 7th by flattening Gaza in a brutal campaign that killed at least 70,000 Gazans, taking control of more than half of the territory and hurting Gazans more than 2 million people into the remainder. He goes on and on that Knesset just voted to legalize hanging as a punishment for Palestinians who are convicted of killing Israelis and terrorist attacks, settler violence, et cetera. That's the point for this is the substance, right? If you want to actually explain why the polls are moving, media has been democratized, and Israel is We just went through this brutal several year long post-October 7th war that people saw in this democratized media. So you cannot continue to just blame. We will be sitting here a year from now looking at numbers that are even worse.

If people don't reckon with Ezra road there. Yeah. And I think there's several ways to disapproval of Israel. So like for the left, a lot of it is just like purely on moral grounds, which is fine. Yeah. For me, you know, I went to Israel. I was like, oh, it's nice. You know, I liked it. A few things made me uncomfortable.

I was like, yeah, it's a little weird. You're getting royally profiled. You're like, okay, but it's their own society, so be it. You know, you do what you want to do. You come back over here. You don't really think about it. There was no real reason. I wouldn't say question it.

I was just like, you know, I never, all this stuff about, like, worshiping Israel always made me super uncomfortable. But I didn't have any connection to it. And then you would say, like, one thing. I remember the first time it ever happened to me was we, I think we did a segment here. It was like back in 2021. Israel like flattened some apartment building in Gaza.

And I was like, hey, you know, that doesn't seem cool because we're giving weapons. And also, just so everybody knows, the George W. Bush administration used to criticize Israel for flattening buildings. So that's fine. You know, I was like, this seems totally acceptable. Oh, my God. That was the first time. And I was like, oh, boy. And I said, did you just listen to what I said?

I said the George W. Bush administration. But that was, you know, that's when I first encountered this brigade. And I was like, wow, these are some of the nastiest people. on the play. I no longer care at all and there's an entire army. It's 2021, probably years ago. And I'm sure you found this as well. Like at a certain point you just have to stop caring

because there's an entire army of people who are like dedicated to taking down you're in my character like on a daily basis and you're like, wow. You know, first of all, you're obviously, you know, somebody's paying you for something. I don't even think we're all that relevant in terms of... Or you're just delusional. You don't even need to get the money.

Right, or they're just so delusional. But what they don't realize that like, you know, for people like us who are financially outside of the system, I'm like, look, I'm just going to keep going, you know, at this point. Now I'm in. You've tried to destroy all of my relationships. And I think that is how it has worked for a significant number. And we've seen it with Megan. We've seen it with Tucker. We're just talking about the right. On the left, the same cleavage has happened. We actually have this. This is fascinating from B4. To be fair, this is from J Street. J. Street, how would you describe J. Street?

It's like a liberal, quasi-Zionist. It's very hard. It's like the progressive alternative to APEC. Right. Mack, you can chime in here. Give us a lefty perspective. APEC-Lypec-Ly. A-P-Ly. Right, because they describe themselves

as like a pro-Israel, pro-peace democracy. But it has long held like a very weird position of like liberal Zionism on college campuses like as a counter to A-PAC. And it seems, I don't really know what to make of them. But regardless, here's what they say. 40% of American Jewish voters say that they are less likely to support a democratic primary candidate if they've been endorsed by. A-PAC. Two-thirds oppose A-PAC spending money raised by Republican donors in Democratic primaries,

according to this new polling released by J-SRI. Keep that in mind, of course, that it's coming from this group who, as I understand it, is really trying to navigate these difficult waters of, like, maintaining Israel's, quote, right to exist, which is a ridiculous term, but also trying to navigate, like, democratic politics. Nonetheless, when you say 40% of Jewish voters say that they're less likely to support a primary candidate endorsed by APEC. Who's APEC really working for, all right? Because they try to conflate all Israeli criticism with Jews. And then if you criticize AAC, they say that's anti-Semitic.

Well, by that definition, a bunch of American Jews are anti-Semitic. But you're not supposed to actually dig too deep into any of them. Well, no, but they would say yes. Oh, yeah, right. Is that they are anti-Semitism? Yeah. Okay. All right.

Makes a lot of sense. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. The entire thing just seems, it just seems like preposterous and obviously falling apart, like on its own logic, but that maybe is the point of this entire thing. So take it for what you will. The vice presidents please and warning to young voters to not leave something. That's just, you know, I'm only 33. I'm going to turn 34 next week. I have literally heard that from a politician every, you know, every single election cycle. It's like, yeah,

but you just got to vote a little bit more and a little bit harder to get you. And there's some truth to it, like at a bigger level. But, you know, I just feel like people are sick of it. Like when you have so many years of people not delivering on major, like big flagship promises, you're just like, I don't care anymore. You know, at the end of the day, Trump was shocked to the system. You didn't shock it. You made it stronger than ever.

I'm like, no, I'm out. Yeah. If people think Trump is bad, it's going to get worse. Because it should get worse. Trump should have been a message because people voted for him to do something different. He's continuing to do the same thing. What's going to come after Trump will be worse if you don't have. address the underlying concerns of the populists who put him into office. Freaking healthcare.

Like, do something. Do something. It's crazy. Inflation, actually getting worse. I mean, over and over again, just a disaster. We could put this last element up on screen from the Associated Press. Trump promised tax relief, but polling shows most Americans still think they're overpaying. Absolutely. Yeah, you said that. And it's very important because when people say here, you say we're overtax, you're saying that the system overall is overtaxed, but that a select group are dramatically undertaxed. And that's why the rest of us are all overtaxed. That's the stuff that drives me insane. Like, we're a small business here. We spend inordinance amount of money on tax compliance and all this other bullshit, frankly. Like, if you think

you're just prepping the show is easy, like, I would take this any day compared to all of the nonsense that we have to deal with behind the scenes. But I know for a fact, based on all of this compliance and that there are ultra wealthy hedge funds and venture capitalists out there who do the same thing but use it to save crazy amounts of money on the carried interest loophole and all of this other like crazy tax manipulation. Pierre Till with the IRA. No, yeah, the rough IRA like buying stock stuff where, you know, it's frankly it's legendary for retirement. It is. It is. But yeah, it should obviously be a le. It's preposterous. It's preposterous to somebody could have $5 billion no tax or the amount of loopholes that exist, you know, at the 0.01% or 0.02% tax bracket while, what is it?

You know, the average person is just throwing money away in these FICA taxes, praying that one day they're going to get their Social Security. And then they get audited and they have to spend $3,000. $3,000 fighting an audit. We could go on forever, like in terms of the tax system. So, like, yeah, while I do, I think it's good, you know, no tax on tips and all this stuff, it scratches the surface for where things are. Even in FICA caps, you know, you ever look at that? And you think of, and, you know, I get it. It's annoying and people get upset about it. But when we talk about social, nobody's ever like, hey, should we raise the cap on FICA?

You know, I mean, the cap's been there for years, right? Like, what is it, 168, something like that? 250. Making plenty of money at 250. Most people are. What percent of Americans are even making that? Nobody even thinks about that. And, of course, those people would riot because they feel poor because that's how bad the economy is right now.

So I get it from their perspective. But, yeah, we've just got to figure out a way. You know, these people, we're rolling around other. their 10, 15 million dollars a year who have done everything to rewrite the tax code. They pay nothing in comparison to the average actual wage earner. The W2 earner at this point is the most screwed person on the planet. Oh, yeah. Like literally, because if you are a waiter, then you get no tax on tips.

And if you are a business owner, you have some things that you can work through. But if you're just some W2 guy out there, you got nothing. You're doing everything right and you're getting screwed left and right. Yeah. And you then wait, wait until those people don't get their Social Security. I mean, seriously. I always say the enduring image of second Trump term, and maybe Trump's entire political career is his second inauguration, where he has all of these, like, billionaires behind him. And at the time, the image he's trying to project is, I have conquered you.

You hated me. I have conquered you. You are now my minion. But I think to a lot of voters, that image illustrates the opposite, that he was conquered by them. So that's a huge problem for him going forward if people keep feeling this. Inflation going up, war. I mean, good luck. Let's get to Europe before we hit all of the guests that we have lined up for everybody.

So let's start here with Italy. Let's put this up here on the screen. Donald Trump says that Georgia Maloney lacks courage. Now, what in God's name could this man be talking about? They say Donald Trump has slammed his Ursaul Al-I, Georgia Maloney over her support for Pope Leo and Rome's refusal to allow U.S. warplanes involved in the attack on Iran. However, in a new interview, telephone interview with the Italian newspaper, the president accused the Italian premier of cowardice because of her comments whenever

it came to his beef with the Pope. He says, your prime minister is doing nothing to get oil. I'm shocked by her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong. spokesperson from Maloney's office declined comment. Trump's attack comes less than 24 hours after Maloney said the president's attack on Pope Leo was, quote, unacceptable. And he lashed out at the pontiff on Sunday night saying he was weak and terrible. Others are saying that when asked about Maloney's comment, Trump told the Italian paper, it is her who is unacceptable.

Now, why is Trump having such beef with the Italian prime minister? It's not just over all of this with the Pope. There's a lot of underlying tension over Iran and Israel. So let's put C2 up there on the screen because this came on the very same day. Italy has suspended defense packs with Israel further straining ties. The move by Italy once considered a, quote, strong ally of Israel reflected growing anger over Israeli aggression in the Middle East, and Trump openly criticized Italy's stance on the war. There is a 2005 defense accord that was ratified between the Italian.

and between the Israelis. Quote, cooperation between the two countries in the area of defense industry procurement policy, importing, exporting military equipment, exchanging technical data and other forms of military collaboration. It has been renewed every five years and was set for another renewal as of this month. However, opposition parties had put pressure on the government for over a year to suspend the renewal, and Marco Grimaldi, the opposition lawmakers, said the decision was a victory for those who had protested Israel's military offensive in Gaza over the last three years. So this is a real break,

not only for the Italians with Israel, but with the United States. Huge. Never thought I'd be sitting here. White Knighten for Italy, all right? In Europe, as people know, my feelings on the continent and of the many American tourists

who choose to go there over literally anywhere else, but it is what it is. Oh, this is your worst take. What? Oh, my worst take is that people should really go to Italy. anywhere else? Go to Italy. Yeah, go to Italy so that you can hang out with other people from like San Francisco or Philadelphia. Yeah, that's smart. Let's go sit in a cafe and order, Spaghetti, all right? Yeah, phenomenal.

I make that my ringtone. Yeah, yeah. Spaghetti. Okay, so coming back, what we do know, at the very least, is that Europe and a lot of these nationalist leaders, so we've seen the AFD in Germany, we've seen now Maloney, we have seen Hungary, and even this new leader in Hungary, Magyar, all of them are charting their own course, right? And I think what people misunderstand about national, particularly Trump, is when Trump says we have a nationalist alliance, I don't think you understand what the word nationalist means. Nationalist means putting your own country's interests first. And so these are actually the exact type of leaders who are like, hey man, you're creating a problem for me. And so if you create a problem for me, I'm just not going

to join you in continuing that. I have to look out for my own nation's politics. And remember with Italy, you have huge U.S. bases there. A lot of Afri-com assets I know that are used from Italian-American bases in Italy. You also, of course, Italy, you know, pretty vital, I would say a member of NATO, not from a defense perspective, but geographically in terms of where they are in the alliance. Of course, they have massive economic and defense problems, so I'll put that to the side. But the point remains that generally, if you were to ask yourself who's more important. And again, this is coming from the guy who doesn't even like Europe. If you were to ask me, who's more important, Italy or Israel?

Who am I picking? Okay? Whenever it comes to that one. And again, that's coming from me. So you can see how this break and this total alliance with Israel has now fractured critical alliances with Korea, with Japan, with the UK, with Australia, with it. Like, why would we do this? And, you know, I am an advocate of more relations and better alliances. with Asia much more so over Europe.

But even here, just to look very rationally, why would you choose the interests of this small country which keeps dragging us into all of these conflicts and is fracturing our alliances and is destroying our honor and our moral character over all of these other countries, which we have longstanding and good relationships with, at times overbalanced, but still, you know,

they still net out a little bit in the U.S. favor if we wanted to. It's just, it seems like madness to me. And nobody, everybody just seems to be totally okay with this, right, from the, you know, pro-Israel side here in America. I just, I just don't get it. Well, he doesn't have to pick these fights either. I mean, I think that's what's extra ridiculous is that he can, and your point about the nationalism is important because there is a wave of nationalism. And you see it even among some leftist leaders like Shanebaum in Mexico, who is constantly hammering their own sovereignty, what they're most sensitive about.

And actually even Mark Carney, somebody who's center left, what they're most sensitive about is the United States appearing to encroach on their sovereignty and then them looking to their voters like they've allowed their sovereignty to be encroached upon. And that is nationalist. They might not call it that, but it really is actually nationalism. And so, yes, you know, there's been much written about how Trump has undermined other kind of right-wing nationalists and the causes, whether it's Poliyev or perhaps. Now this is a boost to baloney.

Oh, he screwed them. Yeah. He absolutely screwed them. Yeah. In Canada, it's shocking. I listened to that guy, Pierre, Pauli... How do you say it? Polyev.

Okay, I'll choose not to say it. But I don't... I had to ask a French professor how to get it right. Really? Is he Quebec? Quebec. Okay. All right.

I know that he likes that. I have a long-same beef with the Quebecua. You have a long-standing beef with the Quebecua. Can't stand them. Can't stand them. Sorry, sorry to any of our Quebec. Do they know about this beef? I think so.

I've mentioned it here before. I said I'd never want to annex Canada because I don't want the Quebec Gua. I don't want it either. I want Australia. This is my new thing. I like it. I like it. All right, C3. Let's put it up here on the screen. This is inside of Israel, Yair Lepid. Italy's decision to suspend the security cooperation agreement with Israel is yet another

embarrassing failure of the prime minister and of the non-existent foreign minister. Maloney is not a left-wing progressive European leader. She's in the right-wing conservative camp and understands the need to fight. terrorism, the government has failed to advance Israel's interests, even in the face of people who are supposed to be friends in our natural allies. So this is from the Israeli, you know, opposition here. By the way, people who support the war, right? So it's not like these are some, you know, blue-haired leftists in Tel Aviv. This are inside of Israel. They're recognizing how much of a problem this is. This is also a bigger problem with Europe. Now, let's be clear

with Europe. These are, you know, complete and total slaves at a legal level to Israel. They have all of these BDS laws. They arrest people for, like, if you think it's bad in America, it's way worse in Germany and in France where they're basically criminalizing any Palestinian protests. But even for them, right? Let's put C4 up here on the screen. You have this new tweet from the chancellor of Germany. He says, I am deeply concerned about developments in the Palestinian territories.

In my phone call with the Prime Minister Netanyahu, I made it clear there must be no de facto annexation. of the West Bank. So this was responded to by the Israelis in a shocking manner. Let's put C5 up here. So this is Smotrich, right, Israeli minister. He says on the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day, the German Chancellor should bow his head and apologize a thousand times on behalf of Germany rather than daring to preach morality on us on how to conduct ourselves against the Nazis of our generation, who murdered, raped, slaughtered, and burned women, the elderly and children, the most horrific massacre perpetuated against the Jewish people since the terrible Holocaust. We will not accept instructions from the hypocritical leaders in Europe,

a continent that is once again losing its conscience and ability to distinguish between good and evil. Mr. Chancellor, the days when Germans dictated to Jews where they are permitted or forbidden to live are over and shall not return. You will not force us into our ghettos again, certainly not in our own land. Our return to the land of Israel, our biblical and historical homeland is the answer to anyone who tried or tries to destroy us, and we do not apologize for it a single moment. Now, let's remember, this is only in response to something that says, I am concerned about developments in the Palestinian territories. I made it clear there must be no de facto annexation of the West Bank. That's what that was in response to. All right? So, all right,

you could draw your own conclusions about how unhinged their society is right now. But again, it just goes back to what we were talking about in the polling block and how if none of this is grappling with what just happened in the last several years that turned people away from supporting Israel and saying that they're supportive of Israel. There's actually a better way. They're not even making their argument in a way that's going to help them. They're making an argument in a way that is going to hurt them in the long run. So it's not even, that doesn't even have to be the way that it is. You could actually try to treat people as rational actors and say, huh, I'm not dismissing you as a bigot.

or an idiot who's been brainwashed by podcasters in TikTok, I actually want to deal with your concerns because I believe that you're a rational actor, but no. This is an I-Heart podcast, guaranteed human.