Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 4/6/26: Iran Total Control On Hormuz, Energy Rationing, US Casualty Coverup, Iran Worried About US Nukes

Episode Date: April 6, 2026

Krystal and Saagar discuss Iran control over Hormuz, energy rationing around the world, Iran damage coverup, Iran worried about US using nukes.   Trita Parsi: https://x.com/tparsi?s=20 Brandon Weichert: https://x.com/WeTheBrandon?s=20      To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breaking points.com. Turning now to oil and what the price remains for all of us in terms of gasoline. Let's put C-1 up here on the screen. oil prices actually slid a bit as Trump warns Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz. A lot of this is because of that Barack Ravid report about an alleged peace deal that may or may not happen. But it does, of course, still. I don't know. I mean, it's still, I mean, look, it's slid a bit by 2%. It's still $10.8 a barrel,

all right? And you could see very clearly, like the crude oil price is about $110 a barrel. as we are recording. The Brent oil price is about $108. I mean, both of these are still astronomically higher than when everything began. It's really only the surprise that it's only $10 or $110 per barrel. Put C2 up there on the screen also to show that Trump's market manipulation is alive and well. NASDAQ futures rise on ceasefire efforts. They're hoping and they're coping, even though Iran has already rejected it. But the average price of gas remains on track for, nightmare scenarios. Let's go to the next one. This is from AAA and their map of the national gas prices. The current AAA national average of gas in the United States is $4.11 a gallon.

Now, already, that's really bad. But if you'll notice when you're watching, all of the states that are in red, where the price remains very high. So in California, what is that? 14% of our population, $5.92 a gallon. Diesel is going in San Francisco for $8 a gallon, well over $5 in a couple of different states. Washington, Nevada, approaching five in Arizona, in Alaska, in Washington, or in Hawaii, 550 a gallon. California, or sorry, Florida is already like $4.20 a gallon. Illinois, $4.29 a gallon. Pennsylvania is $4.15. Virginia, where, We are $4.6. So it's below $4 a gallon in some of the states, which are much closer to the refineries,

like Texas remains at $3.82. But the fact remains, like we are well on track for a sustained gas shock that is going to at least keep us above $3 a gallon well into the foreseeable future. And at the very least, in the next few months, we're going to be hovering in this price. And right now, the average price of diesel in the United States is $5. and 61 cents a gallon. The all-time high from, this was June of 2022, is $5.81 a gallon for diesel. So we are only 20 cents off the all-time high, and many gas and diesel analysts are projecting that the U.S. will cross the coveted $6 diesel threshold, which arguably, that's just as bad as gas, because it shows up in food inflation and trucked goods, it will wipe the margin for any of the

independent truckers. We're already looking at those stories. At $5 diesel, they were really getting screwed at $6, $7. And I mean, can you imagine paying $8 a gallon for diesel? That's insane in San Francisco. That could be our future. It really could. Where that would be, I don't know, maybe $7, $6.50 nationally, that would be like $10 in San Francisco or in some of the other major metropolitan areas in California. So it's genuine nightmare. And this is not even shortages. Right now, it's just priced. We could end up in a shortage scenario, which we're going to talk about in a little bit. Absolutely. And CNBC has this report this morning about how the U.S.-Iran war tax is beginning to hit American businesses and consumers. They talk about the co-founder of the college hunks

hauling junk and moving business. And he started, listen, mortgage rates are high, so people are moving, period. And then I also have to deal with the fact that diesel is so costly. Like, so, I mean, These businesses are already getting screwed. And of course, they're going to pass what cost of that they can onto consumers. You already see that. They detail also in this story. United Airlines and JetBlue both raise prices on baggage this week to try to cope with the increased jet fuel cost. Amazon announced a 3.5% fuel surcharge on their sellers.

Now, again, their sellers will try to pass that onto consumers as much as they possibly can. Amazon described the surcharge as meaningfully lower than levies applied by other major carriers in a statement to CNBC. So this is where we are already. We're now five weeks into this war. Trump says, you know, various things at various times, but he seems to have this idea, oh, we'll wrap it up in two weeks. I don't know how. But even if you take his word for that, I think you've got damage to the energy generation facilities in the region. and you very likely have a permanent new status quo in terms of the Strait of Hormuz,

which is going to put some sort of permanent premium on energy and other goods that are flowing through that region. So that's already where we are. If we continue in this direction, you can only imagine how catastrophic it's going to be for us and for the world. Yeah, exactly. Let's continue on just down to make sure people know, too, there's some very, there are crazy things happening in the Straits of Hormuz, just solidifying Iranian control. Let's put the next one up here. So Iran announced that the brotherly nation of Iraq would be allowed to use the streets of Hormuz. We don't know exactly what sort of deal worked out.

They may be paying the toll. Don't forget, there are all of these Iranian proxy militias in Iraq, which have been, you know, allegedly firing at U.S. forces and U.S. air assets that are moving across Iraq as they go to bomb Iran. So maybe they worked out some deal where those. Iranian proxies will have more movement. Who knows, at the very least, it's very obvious these two governments are trying and moving closer together because Iraq had some, what is it, three million barrels a day of infrastructure, which was totally shut down. So what they've said is that Iraqi ships will now be allowed to use the Straits of Hormuz and will be able to transit

through the strait. We've also had these reports, again, solidifying Iranian control over the state. Let's put the next one up here. The Japanese French and Omani vessels actually did cross through the Straits of Hormuz. Now, the really interesting part here is about those French vessels. This is just one, keep in mind. It's still, of course, a major U.S. asset, or U.S. ally, but France actually voted in the U.N. Security Council against this use of force position that was put forth by the UAE and with the U.S. to try and compel some international mission to use of force to open the Straits of Hormuz. France voted against that, and immediately a French vessel was allowed to cross through. Oman also, let's remember, is a critical

Iranian ally, but also was the mediator of a lot of those talks. The Omani foreign minister, remember, was here in Washington the day before the war being like, we can avoid this, we can avoid this. He's been consistently trying to engage with the vice president's team with Steve Wickoff, Jared Kushner. He also, though, did call out Jared Kushner and Steve Wuchoff for their negotiation. So he's not in anybody's good graces right now here in Washington. But But they remain very good relations with Iran, even though there were some strikes on some Omani oil assets. So they have worked out some sort of a deal where some ships are allowed to hug the Omani

coastline. The IRGC will look the other way. Then there's some Chinese vessels which are getting through the strait. But the fact is, is that traffic is still near all-time record lows. Any ship that's moving through, it's a ship with either de facto control permission by the Iranians or it's a smuggling ship, which apparently this, you know, this researcher from a research firm here in the U.S. went there and he said some ships are going through broadcasting that there are a Chinese vessel surreptitiously to try to move through, but it's still just a complete trickle

to where things used to be beforehand. That's why the shortage will remain. And there's already been demand destruction and problems which are rippling through the global economy right now. Yeah, that's right. And, you know, it's a double-edged sword for the Iranians in terms of their strategy. If they shut the straight entirely, obviously it looks oil as a global commodity, that would increase oil prices more dramatically. But it would also hurt them. So what they've chosen to do is this somewhat middle road where they don't close it entirely. They're able to pick and choose and use it as a point of leverage. They're making more money, something that Trita Parsi actually reported on previously, they're actually making more money. They're de facto

enjoying sanctions relief right now. Some oil is getting into the market, which helps ease somewhat the price spike we would otherwise be experiencing, but is obviously significant. Then the other thing that's really significant here is just the geopolitical implications of the fact that some of our closest allies

we're talking France and Japan are, looks like they're basically going to Iran and like, look, we'll work with you here. What's your asking price? What do we need to do? And that in and of itself is an incredible blow. I mean, basically, look, I saw one analysis, Auger, and I think you said something similar last week as well.

I mean, one of the major purposes of the U.S. empire, and one of the major things that the rest of the world sort of gets out of the U.S. Empire is our ability to guarantee the free flow of goods and trade around the world. That is the only purpose of a blue water name is to ensure commerce on the high seas. So if that is, if that's over, then, I mean, that is basically the U.S. Empire, as we knew it before, is de facto over. because that was, you know, we had a deal with the world in effect. And this was part of the deal. Well, this part of the deal increasingly looks like it's dead and gone. And our closest allies are making other provisions and making other plans. That is as stunning a development as you can possibly.

It's really bad. I mean, Professor Pape laid it out very well with Ryan and Emily, how Iran has turned itself into a great, into a world power. And what he means by that is not that it's a superpower, but that it has control over 20% of the world's energy. and so as a result has the ability to compel what a small nation, even with some asymmetry, you know, punches much more above its weight. And look, it's just obviously true. South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, I mean, the real disaster. Again, nobody in Washington cares at all. All they do is read like the Financial Times or whatever. I read the Korean Herald in Japan Times and Singapore Strait Times and

Chosun Daily and Jan Happ and I read Global Times and all those. I read them every single day. And every day I read articles in the Asian press about, oh, the Philippines trying to cut some deal here with Iran. You know, the Philippine president was like, we got nothing to do with this. Don't worry about it. Just please, bad, bad for us. Top trend, you know, it's a major trading partner. Same with South Korea. Every day the South Korean president says something like, I can't sleep.

This is a disaster. You know, like, just today he gave a press conference where he's like, don't worry, everybody. we're going to be turning to the Red Sea, but you can see then that if Red Sea production drops with Houthis that are joining the war, South Korea, Japan, all of these places are really screwed. So, yes, the purpose of the U.S. Empire was Europe gets free health care, Asia gets its oil, we defend, you know, a decent portion of it.

And as a result, the way that we get anything out of it, you and I, is that we have the largest consumer market in the world, and we get a lot of cheap shit. It worked out for some period, stopped away. working for, you know, anyone who watches the show is familiar with that narrative. But now, we're both a hyper-consumerous society, which makes nothing, and we no longer have this ability to compel and to basically write the rules of commerce everywhere. This will have ripple effects. I mean, oh my God, just off the top of my head, like the Taiwan Strait, the

Straits of Malacca, all of the global shipping, the 50% of global GDP, all in Asia. You've got all of these European countries now, which will rewrite the entire way that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is happening. I predict we are a year away from total normalization if this war continues. They will have no choice. You need jet fuel. You need something. Diesel, middle distillates, which Rory gave us the term. Like, it has to come from somewhere. So it will rewrite an entire portion of the way that the world runs. And that's, look, it might be good in the long run, you know, for some people, but like, that's not going to be good for us. It's going to be high prices, lack of industrial base, and a very consumerist society.

Like, it can be incredibly... We haven't planned for that future. We haven't prepared for that future. It's not just a plan. You know, there were... That's shocking. Like, it really is... That blows up the conceit as we know it from 1945 onwards.

I'm trying to think. How many people alive today would even have a memory of what it was like before America was a genuine world empire? Like, not many. Last piece here, put C8 up on the screen, because it's actually challenged some of my ideas of the way that this would all go down. So we've been saying on the show,

like, oh, well, the U.S. is a net energy exporter. So we're probably more protected than other places around the world from price bikes. Al Jazeera put together this map, which shows worldwide increases in gasoline prices since the Iran war began. And we're not the highest, but we're in the highest band. So, you know, our consumers,

are getting hit hard. Now, of course, we're a wealthy country. We can sustain it more. Also, this is gas prices, other countries, you know, more reliant for energy needs on things like LNG. In any case, we are definitely not being spared from the suffering and from the pain here. There's no doubt about that. Canadian women are looking for more. More to themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are out of them. And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast. I'm Jennifer Stewart. And I'm Catherine Clark. And in this podcast, We interview Canada's most inspiring women. Entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, politicians, and newsmakers, all at different stages of their journey.

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Listen to The Secret World of Roll Dahl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I think we can transition with that into what's going on around the world. We're starting to get some energy rationing here. in the U.S. and certainly around the world, we can put this up on the screen from Time magazine. Strait of Hormuz crisis is driving a wave of global energy rationing. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy transit routes, has caused a global oil shortage.

Some nations are now taking extraordinary measures to deal with this. They talk about jet fuel shortages, so Europe's airports have begun imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel. They give the specific example of Italy, where in four different airports, they've placed some restrictions on jet fuel through Thursday due to limited fuel availability. You've got flight cancellations already. You have in Bangladesh, they talk about how fuel shortages and panic have already resulted in a spike in robberies as people raid gas stations and fuel trucks in order to stock-plile

supply. So they are already seeing a breakdown in the social order because of the shortages here. You've got impacts in Australia and New Zealand they talk about because they get most of their fuel from Asia, especially China, Singapore, and South Korea. With China restricting exports, the Australian government has tried to quell public panic and to prevent panic buying. So you've had issues there as well. South Korea says, you've been talking a lot about South Korea, They're telling people to save every drop of fuel. Here's the latest comment. The current crisis is not a passing shower that quickly subsides, but rather a massive storm whose duration is uncertain, making it all the more severe.

In Southeast Asia, you're having mandatory work from home. Philippine government is called on workers to carpool. Some government offices have switched to a four-day work week to conserve driving fuel. And similarly in Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, they are encouraging remote work for civil service. since Vietnam's trade ministry called on businesses to, quote, encourage work from home when possible to reduce the need for travel and transportation. So here we are also, like in Asia, you know, we're going to talk about censorship. They're already there.

One of the front page stories in Korea today, which I was reading before coming into work, is how a YouTuber over there was spreading, quote, fake news about oil. The government is charging him. So like they're in such a panic. It's like, remember that movie that everyone watching COVID? What was it? Contagion. I think that's what it was, where the guy spread fake news.

or whatever to try and make some supplement money. Well, in Korea, people are spreading panic, so-called fake news, over oil and energy rationing, that the government is literally cracking that. Remember, they don't have free speech, right? They're just going to come in and they're going to arrest you. Well, that is a signal of how dire things are and how worried they are about their own society. Italy, I mean, BP Italia just announces out of the blue, hey, we don't have jet fuel. We have to cancel a couple of these.

The forward-facing contracts that they're looking at are $195. per barrel. The only way that people will be able to fly for a relatively affordable price across the world is if you don't mind the general risk of being hit by a missile while you're in a war zone in Doha or in Dubai. Maybe worth it for some, not worth it for, I think, for most. I'm not taking the fair deal. I've done budget travel, but that's a little bit too far. And already I saw a report like Qatar Airways was offering refunds up until July on some flights and Dubai, Emirates, Abu Dhab, like all of these major ports. Remember, it's not just air travel. It's also air cargo, air cargo moves all across the world. And this is creating like this black hole in the center.

And then also spreading out from all of that of jet fuel. So I actually really think jet fuel is the most under-discussed element of the crisis because we're already seeing it in Italy. We saw the warnings in the UK where they're like, hey, in the future, you know, I mean, I don't know if you've ever landed at London Heathrow, but if you ever do, like, the price is extremely high because they have like a $200 landing tax. It's like, that could be much higher, right, for jet fuel surcharge. We've seen it. With Amazon, you just talked about 3.5%.

You could see that in the future. Any good that has to be moved by air cargo is going to become dramatically. more expensive, like radical in terms of, and remember, that's stuff like stupid stuff, like MacBooks. When I ordered this MacBook, it flew here from Vietnam in two days. Well, maybe in the future, Apple is like, hey, no more new shipping or free shipping. You're like, you're going to have to pay to $300. Like that type of stuff is going to manifest, I think, very quickly, and then it will ripple through the economy. Like, that is where you get into recession territory. Yeah, and there have been some reports in the U.S. of gas stations, like in Florida.

having starting to have shortages. So those implications are starting to come to our shores as well. And I showed the map previously of how much gas prices obviously have gone up in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world. And it's already having huge political impact. Let's put D3 up on the screen. This is one of Soccer who nine's longtime favorite metrics. People who hate both parties. Who are they voting for? And, you know, in previous elections, in the last election, the double haters voted for Trump. And that is really like, and by a significant margin. And that really is kind of like the swing group of the present day.

Okay, people who hate both parties, which one can they tolerate more than the other? Now voters in that group, which hold a negative view of both parties, favor Democrats by 31 points. 31 points. Now, let me give a caveat here, which is that you have a lot of Democratic voters who are like, vote blue no matter who, they will always vote for a Democrat, they self-identify as Democrats, etc., who now have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. They would be classified as double haters, even though they always are Democratic partisans. So I think that is important to keep in mind when you look at this polling. But, you know, the political landscape is somewhat of a constraint

or certainly a factor in the way this war will unfold as well. Part of what's going on internally in the White House apparently Susie Wiles is not happy. There's a sense of like, okay, we got to wrap this thing up. Trump is bored with heat and he understands it's a distraction from the midterms. The problem is, I don't know how he gets out of this thing without, you know, just an utterly humiliating defeat. I mean, that would be if he walks away now. That's what we'll be looking at. And so he's backed himself into a corner where even if the poll numbers continue to decline as precipitously as they have been, it's not clear that there's anything he can really do about that situation. Yeah, look, he doesn't have much of a way out. D4, let's put that up there on the

screen. This is another significant one. But remember, a lot of people who vote for Trump, one of the big things that always has been his strength has been, hey, the people who vote and or love him, they love him forever. However, what they're seeing is that the Trump voter regret is now clearly registering. So in April 2025, 74% of Trump voters scorned any of those options and said they were very confident in their vote. Today, that number is only 62%. The 38% of Trump voters who chose a less resolute option was double the 19% of Kamala voters who did the same.

And then of the 38, 21% said they were still confident but still had some concerns. So the amount of regret for a vote, I mean, what? That's almost 40% of the people voted for you are saying that they... I'm not really crazy about it's going on. That's a lot.

I mean, last time I checked, and actually checks, it maintains in the data. if MAGA is 100% in, but independence, centrist, or moderate Republicans are out, that's literally the Trump coalition. That's the entire thing. Now, young voters have swung dramatically away from a lot of the Republicans, especially for Trump. I also love the whole podcast thing. They're like, oh, the podcast, they don't matter anymore. They're not MAGA. I'm like, well, they seem to matter a lot in the elections. So which one is it? So if Theo Vaughn and Joe Rogan and Joe Rogan and Joe, I mean, Tim Dillon, like the entire brosphere is like not only anti-Trump, but like very anti-Trump.

Now, at this point, at least some of them, well, what does that mean, I think, for the vibe or any of that? It's like the Silicon Valley people who are still pro-Trump. They're like, you know, Japanese guys who refuse to surrender at this point, you know? Like, they're like the only one still planning the flag. I can't think. I mean, they're even OG MAGA people in the middle of the movement since 2015 who are like, all right, I'm not, I'm done with this per se, but pointing out a lot of the problems. Well, when you think about those things, like, it's a big problem.

There's an irony for those Silicon Valley guys who thought they were going to get their, you know, hearts desire in terms of unleashed AI under Trump, which was part. That wasn't the only thing, but that was a big part of what was going on there, especially after Trump wins and you have them all, Mark Zuckerberg and Samal and all these people, like, come in and kiss the ring, et cetera. And the Iran war could destroy their industry. Oh, what? You know, I mean, Trump did all the deregulation and the pumping it up.

and all of that. So he did all of that stuff. But because of the reckless disregard for literally anything and a decision to sort of throw us into World War III here with no plan for it to last beyond literally two days, Iran is targeting one of the large data centers in the world right now. I mean, they're threatening these tech companies directly. The energy prices are going to take a huge toll on them. We've already talked about this somewhat. But there is an irony there to the fact that they got behind Trump. And he may be the... the one that actually destroys that industry and, you know, that may be another silver lining, ultimately, of this war.

I don't, I mean, here's the thing. We could say it in the big picture. You know as I do. In the interim, what's going to happen? Oh, pain. Millions lose their jobs, bankruptcy, high interest rates, stagflation. People were, I was just looking at the CPR. People are expecting now four, five percent energy inflation just on the year from the inputs into our,

I mean, that's a disaster. You know, like, that erases the margin. for the average, what's the average restaurant run on a margin? Like 6%, right? So think about that. There's a lot of small businesses that run on that. If you have enough of that inflation, it'll either get passed on, it'll really get passed on. It's huge demand destruction. And a lot of people will lose their jobs. You know, suicide goes up. It's, it's not going to be good. Let's go ahead and turn to some of the ways that they're working to keep accurate information from you all and from the world and from us and everybody else. And this is really quite

extraordinary. So let's put this up on the screen. This is from Planet Labs. And we've talked a little bit about this before, but this is an expanded level of censorship here being done willfully by Planet Labs at the request of the United States government. So this is from Al Jazeera. They say U.S. satellite firm Planet Labs announces blackout on war on Iran images. The company says the move is being made amid the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, and it comes after a direct request from the U.S. government. So previously, there had been a hold on satellite data from the region, with the idea being that maybe two weeks later, we'll post the information so you're not getting real-time looks from this private satellite company of what the damage is in the region and damage

specifically to, like, U.S. bases around the region. We still have very little information. We know that many of our service members have been pulled off of some 13 bases in the region and are being put up in civilian hotels, which by the way, in and of itself could constitute a war crime because you're then putting civilian, you're using civilians as human shields. In any case, that's our only indication of how much damage there is. You'll get a few photos out, a little bit of glimpse here, a little bit of glimpse there. But this private satellite company has just completely bent to the desires of the Trump administration here to hide how much damage there is. I would pair this with there was a report from the intercept about the way that they are delaying and underplaying reports of casualties and even service members' deaths to try to, you know, to try to create a misimpression of how the war is going and downplay the damage. Now, I'm not going to say these things are really new in war.

I think there's typically an effort to downplay the level of death, the level of injuries, the level of damage, etc. You know, Trump is very big and Higgs had the very big on this whole victory narrative and they're obliterated, et cetera, et cetera. But for a private company to just go ahead and sort of collapse like this and agree to the whims of the U.S. federal government's brief. Well, first of all, yeah, screw them. It's also, don't forget this. You know, they have contracts, right? Like, they have contracts with all these news organizations. I have covered a war since 2014.

And I have used open source satellite imagery for every single conflict we have ever been in, ever been in. This is from Afghanistan to these O-Sense satellite images. And by the way, we were able to get them a couple of days after the incident. This now is cutting off everything from like what? March, it was like March 9, dating back to March 9th that they are withholding all imagery. And that was some of the initial imagery that we had of U.S. bases. The American public has an absolute right to know, especially with this government and the regime that we've seen put in place over the extreme restrictions in the Gulf. I talked earlier about how people who are entering Oman are being told to sign these documents

where they're not allowed to record, they're able to report, but they have to do some writing. In the UAE, you have citizens who can get arrested for, or you have foreigners who can get arrested for, you know, publishing videos of missile strikes. I know that this is in place for much of the Gulf. There's really only one or two journalists who have even been gone to the Straits of Hormuz, not saying that they don't have the ability to do so, but more so that the governments are not letting them. You've only had two journalists, Western journalists, who were able to go to Iran. One of them, remember, the guy who we interviewed. Oh, that guy got bombed by Israel. Let's not forget

that. So the censorship regime now is dramatic in place. And actually, you have Chinese and Russian satellite, because, yeah, turns out, oh, nobody owns, like, geostationary orbit. Okay? So you've got a of Chinese and Russian satellite companies, they're publishing everything. Or they're not publishing open source. They're sending it straight over to the Islamic Republic. And you can see how these Chinese and Russian satellites, look what, you think they don't want revenge, especially the Russians, after all of these Ukrainian attacks that we have done on them, that we backstop, that we've given them all of this intelligence, they're salivating at this ability to try and destroy as much U.S. military aircraft as possible to create this huge energy crisis in Europe.

I mean, all I follow a bunch of accounts that are directly from the Kremlin. They're doing backflips over there. They're like, oh, this is the end of the European Union. Screw you. Oh, it's not so fun whenever it happens to you. Same in China. I mean, they're just sitting there. You know, seen the meme do nothing win from Xi Jinping, literally doing nothing,

just sharing satellite imagery. And by the way, they're doing an export ban on all of their oil. They seem to be doing okay. But the general attack of the CCP so far has been, let's sit here, we'll take some temporary hit on the oil market, but we are bleeding the West dry and we are destroying the ability of their Navy. All we have to do is support Iran a little bit. A few of these hit pinprick strikes and we can create significant chaos and damage in the U.S. Why wouldn't you do it? Well, you add that to the AI misinformation.

People were sharing, including politician Greg Abbott, shared this fake AI image of the. the supposed airmen who, you know, was shot down and rescued and whatever, this thing was spread widely. It's just completely fabricated. And if any of you guys have gone on Twitter and tried to figure out what the hell is going on, it's a near impossibility. There's all kinds of fake strikes or repurpose video from this or that. It's very hard to sort through what is going on. You've got a whole bunch of authoritarian governments, including Israel, that are involved here, that are only showing the world the pieces that they want to show, you know, maybe strategically leaking something or showing something in order to evince some sympathy from the world,

but otherwise lots of damage is being undersold. And let me go back to that intercept report I mentioned because I think this is highly significant. So at the intercept, they say there's a casualty cover-up. The Pentagon is hiding U.S. losses under Trump in the Middle East. According to their reporting, this is from last week, almost 750 U.S. troops have been wounded or killed in the Middle East since October 2023. That's an analysis from the but the Pentagon will not acknowledge it. Sentcom, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, appears to be engaged in what a defense official called a casualty cover-up, offering the intercept lowball and

outdated figures failing to provide clarifications on military deaths and injuries. At least 15 troops, they say, were wounded Friday in an Iranian attack on a Saudi airbase that hosts American troops. That's according to two government officials who spoke with the intercept. Hundreds of U.S. personnel have been killed or injured in the region since the U.S. launched a war on Iran just over a month ago. They go on to detail the way that Sentcom has sent outdated statements on casualty numbers. They result in undercounts, including a statement sent Monday from spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins, noting that since the start of Operation

Epic Fury, approximately 303 U.S. service members have been wounded. That comment was three days old and excluded at least 15 wounded in the Friday attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia command did not reply to repeated requests for updated figures. They also would not provide account of troops who have died in the region since the start of the war. An intercept analysis puts the number at no less than 15. So they are, they're cooking the books here. You know, they're underselling the amount of deaths. They're underselling the amount of injuries in a systematic fashion, using outdated numbers,

and trying to deceive the news media. And so the intercept was able to catch them in some of this deception. Yeah, not a surprise, literally, at all, right? And so you could see pretty obviously that, but also, we all knew this was the case. Let's go through a few other examples. Do you remember the Saudi embassy, the U.S. embassy in Riyadh when it got hit? And we were told, just a fire. Don't worry about it.

Turns out the fire raged for hours, destroyed a significant part of the embassy. We learned about it three weeks later. Same with the bases. We've sustained minor damage. Now we're being told they're basically uninhabitable. And a lot of the troops there had to relocate to some of these hotels. This was the case for some of the raeastern. that were hit. We were told it's no big deal. That's when the satellite imagery came out immediately after. We're like, oh my God, this entire battery is completely gone. And so basically at every turn, you should remember there's more damage than we know about. And the really big stuff, like the tankers and remember that some of those aircraft that we've lost that are on the ground, that stuff has to come out because it's so sensational. But lower level things about, oh, we're not living in the base anymore. Oh, actually the embassy was on fire, but actually burned a lot more. I would.

would not be shocked if energy infrastructure has been hit, I would say, five times harder. That, I mean, what? Are you really going to disclose the amount of damage that has taken place in your oil refinery? Probably not. You don't want to show how weak actually you are or how close to breaking. So I really think everyone should just remember the immense amount of censorship. And then, look, Iran, too, they release all kinds of stuff. They release something about some guy's skull that was in, you know, a U.S. military. And you're like, maybe. I mean, look, it's, I mean, is it possible that an American was killed and we're not told about it? I find it very hard to believe.

Oh, I find it very easy to believe. No, see, because I've asked around about this. KIA is just a whole other thing. It literally is like a whole lot of them. According to Intercept report, there's at least two that we haven't been told about. And so what they can do is I don't think they can delay it forever, but can they, you know, can they delay it? Absolutely. And these people will lie about things even that they know will ultimately come out.

They just have zero shame. So no, that's not hard for me to imagine all. I'm not saying the Iranian report is true. I'm just saying that that is not difficult for me to imagine whatsoever. And the other piece that is unaccounted for is we have, I don't know how many contractors throughout the region as well. That's true. And we haven't gotten any insight into injuries among contractors, casualties among contractors,

and they're, you know, in many cases basically doing the same job as the U.S. military. So in any case, very, very incomplete picture of what the reality is for, you know, for Israel, for our Gulf allies, for the U.S., inside of Iran, very limited pictures of what's actually going on here. That's right. All right. Let's get to Trita Parsi. Crystal is going to step out because she's got a train to catch.

That's right. I'm going to New York, by the way, if anyone is in Brooklyn tonight, I'm going to be doing this Jacobin event that I'm excited about. There you go. See you guys there. All right. Let's get to Trito. Canadian women are looking for more.

More to themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are at them. And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast. I'm Jennifer Stewart. And I'm Catherine Clark. And in this podcast, we interview Canada's most inspiring women. Entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, politicians, and newsmakers, all at different stages of their journey. So if you're looking to connect, then we hope you'll join us. Listen to the Honest Talk podcast on I Heart Radio or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

I'm Lori Siegel, a longtime tech journalist. And consider my new podcast, mostly human, your bridge to the future. Anyone can now be an entrepreneur, anyone can build an app, and it's very empowering. Each week, I'll speak to the people building that future, and we're going to break down what all of this innovation actually means for you. What I come to realize is that when people think that they're dating these AI companion, they're actually dating the companies that create this. We're experiencing one of the greatest tech accelerations in human history, and let's be honest, that can be messy. There's no playbook for what to do when it's.

an AI model hallucinates a story about you. But it's my belief that we should all benefit from this moment. Mostly Human will show you how. My goal is to give you the playbook, so you can benefit. The reason I say agency is because if we can give power back to people, then I think that's probably the best thing we can do for your mental health. Listen to Mostly Human on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

You know Roll Doll. The writer who thought up Willie. Wonka, Matilda, and the BFG. But did you know he was also a spy? Was this before he wrote his stories? It must have been. Our new podcast series, The Secret World of Roll Doll, is a wild journey through the hidden chapters of his extraordinary, controversial life.

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Listen to the secret world of Roll Dahl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Joining us now is our great friend Dr. Tretta Parsi of the Quincy Institute, a great friend of the show. Good to see you, sir. Thanks for joining us. Good to be with you. Okay, let's go ahead and start off with a tremendous allocation here, or the president telling Trey Yinks of Fox News that actually the United States did send arms to some Kurdish militant groups and that somehow that didn't end up failing as some sort of mission.

Let's take a listen. We'll get your reaction. Now, the president also provided new details on what happened earlier this year, as the Iranian regime took to the streets and slaughtered what the president tells me is 45,000 civilians in their own country. After that took place, President Trump told me the United States sent guns to the Iranian protesters. He tells me we sent them a lot of guns. We sent them through the Kurds. And the president says he thinks the Kurds kept them. He went on to say we sent guns to the protesters, a lot of them. Pretty extraordinary allegation there, sir, maybe either talking about the previous protests from before the war or after the war, arming the Kurds.

But how should we receive and analyze this news in the context of the war that we're currently in? Well, if you go back and look at the coverage of these protests at the time and my own interviews with you guys, it was very clear that there was something very different about these protests in terms of the violence, not only that was used overwhelmingly, of course, by the Iranian government and the very large number of deaths, not the 40,000 that Trump is referencing, but certainly around 7,000. But also because there was so much violence from some elements within the protest movement, which was very unusual. So you saw targeting of mosques, of fire stations, of banks, etc., as well as the killing of at least 200 or so of the government's

forces. This is not what we had seen in Iran before. And at the time, a lot of us was trying to I understand how is it that this came about this way, that we have this very significant change in trends. And at the time, of course, Mike Pompeo, former head of CIA, was tweeting how the Mossad was on the ground, hinting at the U.S. arming these various elements. And now, of course, Trump coming with not an allegation, but probably a revelation, that this actually was exactly what was happening, that there was elements inside of Iran that were being armed by the United States and Israel were conducting some of this violence. Now, the timeline that he's presenting here seems to be a bit off.

He's essentially saying that the armaments came to these protesters after the Iranian government killed so many of them, and this is around January 8th and 9. But I think he may have actually misstoken there because there were clear evidence that something was happening before then. And that really what this was is that you had two different things happening at the same time. A very large, highly peaceful protest against the government, calling for it to be completely replaced. And then another element that operated under the shadow of these larger protests that was using violence on a scale that we had not seen before.

And a lot of the protesters that were out there had no idea about this. They were not involved in any violence. they were not going out there protesting violently to overthrow the government. Nevertheless, once the government started clamping down, they killed both peaceful protesters as well as people from these armed elements, what appears to be without much discrimination. Very important, yeah, that we make that distinction. But to say openly from the president, yeah, we sent them a lot of weapons,

actually probably bolsters a lot of the case that the regime itself was making for why it had to have such a large crackdown in the first place. So at the same time, though, we have to get your reaction here for how the Iranians are going to respond from Trump's insane Easter message. Let's put it up there, guys, on the screen. Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, Bridge Day, all wrapped in one. There will be nothing like it. Open the fucking straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch.

Praise be to Allah, President Donald J. Trump. Tell us a little bit about, sir, about the way that this is going to be internalized in Iran by the regime as they consider all these. last minute, ceasefire proposals and things that are flying around this morning? I think there will be two primary takeaways on the Iranian side. The first one is that Trump is losing it, that he's acting in increased desperation. He's speaking from a position of anger and frustration rather than through measured and thought through threats that he actually can act on. He's issued a lot of threats that he has not acted on precisely because he cannot act on

without causing massive escalation that would backfire on the U.S. itself. Secondly, when looking at this, I think the Iranians are probably starting to think that Trump may actually go towards the nuclear option. But his desperation has now led to a scenario in which he may very well consider options like that. And I have spoken to former U.S. officials who are very concerned that this is the direction that Trump is going in. the use of language such as total surrender, et cetera, that echoes the Second World War language

vis-a-vis the Japanese, for instance, are things that are making people worry that this may actually be a consideration, mindful of the fact that none of Trump's threats or actions so far have brought the Iranians an inch closer toward the type of surrender and capitulation that Trump still seems to be looking for. I don't think it's forthcoming. and as a result, people are starting to fear that actually there may be a use of a nuclear weapon. Yeah, I mean, I'm terrified about it as well. I made a joke earlier in the show. The thing about the madman theory is you're not supposed to actually be mad.

You're just supposed to be pretending to be mad. But that's actually kind of the core question. At this point, every ounce of pressure the U.S. is put for a ceasefire has been rejected. Obviously, that leads the U.S. logic of let's up it because this time they might break. We do have this statement from the Speaker of the Parliament. We can put it up here on the screen. He says, your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living hell for every single family member and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu's commands.

So they remain defiant. But, sir, if we do go past the deadline, if the attack does happen, what will the likely response by Iran then be? Will we see the same horizontal escalation across the region? Will we see, you know, what possibly do they have left in their arsenal to make things even worse and escalate this into total war? We don't know what they have left in their arsenal in terms of how many missiles they have left, if they have more advanced missiles that they haven't used. I think we should admit, though, that they have surprised the United States several times by using missile technology, etc., that, you know, frankly, we didn't believe that they had. So I think one has to be very humble and recognizing that perhaps they have several other cards up their sleeves that could really surprise us.

I think also what we saw over the weekend with what appears to have been a rescue attempt against American pilot that was shot down in Iranian airspace, but also that there seems to be other things going on that may suggest that there also was perhaps an effort to launch some form of a smaller land invasion in order to. to grab the Iranian H.U. But that it failed. All of these things are coming together here. And I think what we're seeing is that as a result, the Iranians may very well do exactly what they have threatened to do, but have not done yet, which is to go after the old infrastructure, the energy infrastructure in the region, as well as desalination plants, et cetera, in the GCC states, as well as in Israel. And those states are actually more sensitive when it comes to this than Iran is. And if the Iranians go after the oil installations and the oil infrastructure, I think we have to recognize that's a very different scenario we would end up in.

Right now, the oil prices are high because of a bottleneck in the Persian Gulf. The oil tankers are not coming through unless they pay the Iranians a transit fee. We are not having an oil problem because infrastructure has been destroyed and production has come down. But if you add that to the scenario, which means that not only do we have a bottleneck, we also have a production problem. That's when you will likely see oil prices go up between 150, perhaps 200. Not only is it going to increase

because of that immediate shortage, but because if all infrastructure is taken out, then you also have long-term shortages because it's going to take years to be able to rebuild all of that. Right now, in the absence of that destruction, oil prices can actually go down to more normal levels within weeks if this conflict is resolved.

But if the oil infrastructure is destroyed is going to take years to do so, even if the conflict is resolved. That's a major escalatory car that the Iranians have. They've been using it as a counter threat to prevent the United States from going after Iran's old infrastructure and other civilian infrastructure. Last question for you then. What about the Houthis? They've remained largely out of the conflict so far in the Red Sea.

They did fire several missiles at Israel today, but they have not fully tried to close the Red Sea. I saw some reports that it's possible that they've been paid off. by Saudi Arabia or, you know, bribed effectively to stay out of the conflict. How seriously do you take those reports? Do you think they're just holding back? Because their, you know, strategy so far in the conflict has been, has either not made sense or they just seem to be waiting.

What do you think? I think it's more that they're waiting. What we have seen is that what they have done, when they have done something, it appears to have been very closely coordinated not only with Yvonne, but also with Hezbollah and Lebanon, meaning that the attacks are coming in a very coordinated and timed fashion in order to make the Israelis put them as a disadentatious position as possible. All of that to me suggests that they're demonstrating their capability as a deterrence. But if the U.S. escalates massively after these threats,

then I think it is quite likely that the Houthis will enter the war fully. And that will again further the horizontal escalation from what we've seen so far. Yeah. Well, sir, thank you. as always, for joining us and for all of the insight you're able to give us. We appreciate it very much, and we'll see you later. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. Ryan and I will be all tomorrow. Bro Show. We'll see you then. I'm Lori Siegel, and this is mostly human, a tech podcast through a human lens. This week, an interview with OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman. I think society is going to decide that creators of AI products bear a tremendous amount

of responsibility to the products we put out in the world. An in-depth conversation with a man who's shaping our human. our future. My highest order bit is to not destroy the world with AI. Listen to mostly human on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. In 2023, Bachelor star Clayton Eckerd was accused of fathering twins. But the pregnancy appeared to be a hoax. You doctored this particular test twice in selling, correct?

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