Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 4/9/26: WH Humiliated By Israel, Lebanon Bombings, Yanis Varoufakis On China Winning

Episode Date: April 9, 2026

Krystal and Saagar discuss the White House humiliated by Israel on Iran, Israel kills hundreds in Lebanon, Yanis Varoufakis says China is big winner.   Yanis Varoufakis: https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/ Behrooz Ghamari: https://www.amazon.com/New-Events-Questions-Behrooz-Ghamari/dp/1682196712    To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast. My latest episode is with Noah Kahn, the singer-songwriter behind the multi-platinum global hit stick season and one of the biggest voices in music today. Talking about the mental illness stuff, it used to be this thing that I was ashamed of.

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Listen to No Grip on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here. Independent Media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to Breaking, Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at breaking points.com. Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

Indeed, we do. The ceasefire is on the verge of collapse this morning as Israel insists on continuing their mass murder in Lebanon and Trump says go right ahead. Yanos Verifakis is going to join us this morning to talk about the rise of Asia in the midst of this conflict and their role and give his overall thoughts on what is going on here. We've also got the Strait of Hormuz closed again because of that breakdown in the cease file. We'll take a look at the impact of oil both today and also its role in the conflict. Israelis promise that the war is not over. We also have a major Zionist freak out that we're going to take a look at. I'm sure you guys will enjoy that one as we enjoyed putting the segment together. And an Iranian-American scholar is going to join us to talk about how this war fits in the long history of Iran and the likely reaction of the public to the way this has all gone down. Right. An actual scholar, by the way, in Iran, not just some guy who owns a dry cleaning business in Los Angeles. Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to the show. We deeply appreciate it. Breaking Points.com if you're able to support us. We did a brochure AMA, so that's the type of special content that you can get if you pay and you subscribe. Please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. We're already at 2.01 million subscribers.

It's not as clean. What do you think, Crystal? Now I'm going for 2-2-2-2. I like that. You know, it's a nice number 2.22. Let's shoot for the stars. You want to keep... You want 3.0?

2.5. Okay, 2.5. All right, 2.5. Modest goals here over at breaking points. By the way, Ryan strong-armed us into making the whole Friday shift. Yes, that's right. When he announced that we had... Reality on the ground, too.

Yeah, that's fine. All right. We're going to do that for now. That's what Ryan does. Ryan calls the shots around here. And finally, if you're listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend really helps other people find the show. But with that, let's go ahead and start with the, can you call it a ceasefire if the fire hasn't actually ceased. But here is Caroline Levitt from the White House podium yesterday. You will recall that Donald Trump and the Pakistani

Prime Minister both announced that the ceasefire was contingent on a workable solution. That workable solution being the so-called 10-point plan from Iran. That 10-point plan included the The Iranian control of the Straits of Hormuz, their right to enrich uranium, their ability to have total sanctions relief, a ceasefire in Lebanon. While the White House now saying actually that 10-point plan is thrown into the garbage, even though the ceasefire itself remains. Let's take a listen. The Iranians originally put forward a 10-point plan that was fundamentally unsurious, unacceptable, and completely discarded. It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team. Many outlets in this room have falsely reported on that plan as being acceptable to the United States,

and that is false. With the president's deadline fast approaching and the United States military completely decimating Iran with each passing hour, the regime acknowledged reality to the negotiating team. They put forward a more reasonable and entirely different and condensed plan to the president and his team. President Trump and the team determined the new modified plan was a workable basis on which to negotiate, and to align it with our own 15-point proposal. The president's red lines, namely the end of Iranian enrichment in Iran, have not changed. And the idea that President Trump would ever accept an Iranian wish list as a deal is completely absurd.

The president will only make a deal that serves in the best interests of the United States of America, and he is at negotiating team will focus on this effort over the next two weeks, so long as the straight of her moves remains open with no limitations or delays. These extraordinarily sensitive and complex negotiations will take place behind closed doors over the course of the next two weeks. So you can see that we threw it into the trash. So then what exactly are we all negotiating about? I know Ryan and Emily went over some of the 10-point plan yesterday, but it is really worth saying.

Like, first of all, the White House is like, well, the public 10-point plan, that's not the real 10-point plan. But the real 10-point plan we also threw it. So what are we negotiating about? I mean, the whole thing is totally preposterous. And we're going to get to this in a second from the Speaker of the Parliament, Golibov. Remember, he is the person who is going to be sitting across the table if these talks do happen on Saturday morning in Islamabad from the vice president of the United States. Well, he is pretty clearly saying these are parts of the 10-point plan. So there's been no cease.

I mean, what did J.D. call it a fragile truce? That's probably the best descriptor. a real ceasefire if the firing has not actually ceased. We're seeing stuff blow up all across the globe. The White House is so desperate. I think Trump was for the oil markets to come down, so he was successful, and for the markets to rocket. But outside of that, nothing fundamental has been solved here. Absolutely nothing. No, and it's very hard to see what happens next. So I'll just say, you know, just to back up a second about how we got to this quote-unquote ceasefire. Right. I look, this is speculation, but, you know, there's a lot of intelligent people who have looked at the

of what exactly happened with this pilot capture, and I am persuaded by the evidence, that they were trying to do some sort of a grab-the-nukes, the nuclear material option. Obviously, catastrophic failure. And so then we saw Trump, like, lashing out with these insane posts, you know, open the fucking straight. And then, of course, we had the genocidal threats.

So what he had wanted to be his off-ramp and his mission-accomplished moment had completely fallen apart. And that left him scrambling and desperate. and realizing also that any other of their sort of farcical plans to take this island or that island or try to do this sort of invasion or that sort of invasion were also likely to end an utter and complete catastrophe. So that left him with few options. You know, from the Iranian side, yes, the points have shifted a little bit over time.

But basically since the beginning of the war, they have said, these are our priorities. This is what we want to end this war. And we don't want a temporary ceasefire. We want an end to a permanent end to hostilities. And we need guarantees that both our deterrence is strong enough and also some like international community guarantees that we're not going to end up back here again. So obviously Trump is lying when he's like,

oh, these 10 points you guys are talking about that has nothing to do with it. He's just responding to the fact that people when they looked, and I'm not just talking about like liberals, leftists, anti-war activists, whatever, when his supporters looked at what this basis for negotiation was, they said, this is a surreactist. Like, this is a complete and total defeat for the United States of America. So everything since then is him trying to obfuscate and spin that the, you know, this decisive defeat is what it would effectively be, is not as bad as it looks.

And then with regard to this piece on Lebanon, it is as clear as it could possibly be that Lebanon was part of the deal. That's what the Pakistani prime minister tweeted out in a tweet that was likely drafted by us. No, not like confirmed now. It was confirmed that it was reviewed. by us, yeah, and very likely drafted directly by us, that included the language about Lebanon being included. So they're just lying now that that was never contemplated or that it was ambiguous, and that's J.D. Vance's new line. It's like, oh, I think it's just a misunderstanding. No, you all are trying to go back on your word. Why? Because apparently you never, ever can stand up to

Israel. And so now this whole thing hangs in the balance. Yes, exactly. Yeah. And again, to zoom out, I think your theory is very plausible. I definitely do think something was up. I don't know if it was the full operation. It was maybe dual use just to see if we could establish the base. But that alone, I mean, it would be a huge failure, right? If they had to blow it up, they'd said that they took artillery fire, that there was fire on target, all the Iranians in the area were firing. They had multiple aircraft that were shot down. But you're right. I mean, my only takeaway, I'm honestly sad, like looking at it. I'm like, wow, like we have been utterly humiliated by this country. Like, how much money have we all paid in taxes for these Tomahawk missiles and these aircraft carriers

and these C-130s and these E-3s and these THAAD radars and how, you know, we've all not had health care as a result, and that was the trade. Europe gets to have health care. We get all the weapons. We get to guarantee the high seas and commerce and the empire. And then it all just comes crashing down. Like the truth is, is that if this were to hold and the 10 points were to remotely become true, it would be the biggest strategic defeat for the United States since Vietnam. Professor Pate said that, and I totally agree with it because the full force of the U.S. military went in and tried to accomplish, regime change, the reopening, reopening of the Straits of Hormuz, and also the destruction of Iran's ballistic missile capacity, and as well as their drones. We did not accomplish any of that. They retain all of that. Now, has it been diminished? Sure. And clearly, though, the Iranians, the one change they made in their strategic calculus, and I'm still very curious as to how this all

came about. They did agree ultimately to a temporary ceasefire. I don't know why. From what I have asked around, their belief was not that Trump ultimately, would destroy their power plants, et cetera, and while that that might be survivable, I think that what they fear the most is actually being nuked by Israel, is that ultimately the longer this would be going on. And so they said, well, let's at least try to have some sort of a temporary ceasefire in the interim. By the way, aren't we always told that they're insane theocrats, suicidal and all that. It's like, well, you know, if you ask me, you know, if you have somebody who's fooled you twice in the cover of diplomatic renegotiations, to me it's actually irrational

to try and have a temporary ceasefire. Just me, I'm glad they did it, to be very clear. Very glad Trump did this. Very glad the Iranians did this. But it could still very much easily collapse. I mean, it's collapsing in real time as we watch. I think we're going to learn more about the role of China in all of this, potentially on both sides.

I mean, carrots to Iran and also, look, our entire industrial base is hangs in the balance based on China's good graces of whether or not we're going to have access to their rare earth supply and all the supply lines that they have sort of like locked down, at least for the near term, because we haven't done the work that we need to do to make sure we have our own domestic capabilities with that regard. So I think we'll learn more about China's role here. But, you know, according to Jeremy and, you know, I listen to him obviously with great interest. By the way, shout on to DropSight. Like, anyone who's reading DropSight knows so much more of how this is going to go and what the truth is than, you know, I think anyone else in the world. But in any case, you know, Jeremy says, effectively, the Iranians have always said, yeah, we're willing to end the war.

here are our demands. And so when the U.S. was like, okay, we, you know, accept your demands, at least as a basis for negotiation, and you have, you know, China coming in, and they're, you know, genuinely taking a lot of heat and under pressure, et cetera, there was a sense of, okay, well, let's give it a shot and let's see. But Lebanon, all of the fronts of war were very clearly included. And, you know, obviously we know that Israel does not want to end this war. They're doing everything they can. Bibi has come out and said that the war is not over. We want to go back and achieve our objectives. There's a huge revolt from the population of like, well, Iran still exists and they're stronger than ever. So it was an utterly predictable that Israel would come in and do

whatever they can to blow this thing up. And it happened even faster than I could have possibly expected that not only they continue their invasion and ethnic cleansing and bombing campaign in Lebanon, they dramatically, dramatically escalated it. I referenced before J.D. Vance talking about like, oh, I think this is just like a little misunderstanding, which, again, total nonsense. This was very much clearly articulated and clearly contemplated in the agreement for the ceasefire while a larger end of the war has worked out. But let's go ahead and take a listen to him claiming that this was just a misunderstanding.

There seems to be a disagreement about whether Lebanon was included in this proposal. And the speaker of the parliament, you're going to sit across. from the table from in Islamabad. It's just said that he thinks negotiations would be unreasonable while that war is ongoing. So would you ask Israel to hold off strikes to allow some states for these talks? Well, first of all, I know there's been some conversations

between the Israelis and the leadership of our country today. I haven't been involved in that because I've been busy doing stuff in Hungary. I'm actually supposed to get an update when I get on the plane. But let me say a couple things. First of all, I actually think, and there's a lot of bad faith negotiation and a lot of bad faith, you know, propaganda going on. I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought

that the ceasefire included Lebanon and it just didn't. We never made that promise. We never indicated that was going to be the case. What we said is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran and the ceasefire would be focused on America's allies, both Israel and the Gulf Arab states. Now, that said, the Israelis, as I understand it, again, I'm supposed to get a fuller report when I get on the plane, have actually offered to be, frankly, to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon because they want to make sure that our negotiation is successful. That's not because that is part of the ceasefire. I think that's the Israelis trying to set up us up for success. And we'll, of course, see how that unfolds in the next few

days. So, I mean, you can see the way the sort of choice of race that's up here, both for Iran and for the U.S. For Iran, they have to decide how committed are we to Lebanon. Based on what Trita Parsi has been saying, I think they are committed to Lebanon, not just because that's, you They see them as like human beings who shouldn't be slaughtered and ethnically cleansed, but more important, they see the escalation into Lebanon and the attacks on Palestinians as a threat to their own security because that always means that the thing can expand and be a new conflagration. Exactly. They literally call themselves brothers. Of course they've given them weapons. Also, Hezbollah put it all on the line for Iran, right? So they decided to try and draw fire from Israel and get themselves bombed as to try and to deplete Israeli interceptors. and expand, it was successful. They literally forced it, but not force, Israel, decided to invade Lebanon, basically, ethnically

cleanse half of the country and probably annex it for some time in the future. But, like, that, you can't just, it'd be like if the United States was fighting with somebody else. And then we said, okay, well, we'll have a ceasefire bilaterally. But the person who launched a war on your behalf is that person we just leave them out to dry. I mean, we would probably do that. But anyway, maybe the Iranians won't. Maybe it be worth it. Again.

If it was, you know, totally existential, but it's not right now for them. And then for the U.S., you got to choose, do you want the straight of Hormuz to be operable, or do you want to let Israel rampage? You know, and that's the choice. And I would err on the side of thinking that Trump's going to allow Israel to rampage. It certainly seems the direction that they're leaning in right now. But he also watches the market so closely. We know how much that drives his behavior, not just with regard to the oil prices,

but with regard to the bond markets, with regard to the stock markets. So these are two very powerful competing forces within the Trump presidency. which is why it's so hard to predict what's going to happen. Yeah, look, I have no idea, but we do know that the Iranians are sticking to their guns. Let's put A3 up there on the screen. This was an initial statement from the Speaker, Ghalabov. He said a statement on the violation of three key causes of the 10-point proposal before the start of negotiations. The deep historical trust that we hold towards the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments,

a pattern that has regretted to be repeated again. As the President of the United States has clearly stated in his truth, The Islamic Republic of Iran's 10-point proposal is a workable basis on which to negotiate. However, three clauses have been violated. Number one, non-compliance with the first clause of the 10-point proposal regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon, a commitment that the Prime Minister has also explicitly referred to and declared as an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately. Number two, the entry of an intruding drone into Iranian airspace, which was destroyed in the city

of LAR and Farr's province in a clear violation of the clause prohibiting any further violation. That, by the way, appears to have been an Israeli drone. Number three is denial of Iran's right to enrichment, which was included in the sixth clause of the framework. So look, I mean, we don't have the full 10-point proposal, whatever it is, but that's from Iran. That's what they're saying. And that is a total defeat for the United States because it doesn't even just include

the Straits of Hormuz. Now, Ghalabov has followed that up early this morning. go ahead and put this one up there on the screen, guys. He says Lebanon and the entire resistance axis as Iran's allies form an inseparable part of the ceasefire. Prime Minister Shabashiriv publicly and clearly stressed Lebanon issue. There is no room for denial and backtracking. Seas fire violations carry explicit costs and strong responses. Extinguish the fire immediately. So that is what he said. Now, to be very clear, he is correct about the prime minister Shabashirif. put a four pleas on the screen. This is the original announcement of the ceasefire from Shabash

Sharif of Pakistan. With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran or the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, effective immediately. This was the announcement from Pakistan, which was the interlocutor between the United States and Iran in these talks. Lebanon is explicitly said there. So when the... the vice president and the president and the White House all say that this was some sort of confusion. There's no confusion. The confusion is on our end. And it's very clear what happened is that we either didn't consult the Israelis, haphazardly agree to it. And they're like, whoa, I'm not doing that.

They're like, I'm not agreeing to that at all. And again, just further confirmation on that point. Here is the Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations explicitly saying Lebanon is included. Let's take a listen. Mr. President, we echo the Secretary General's deep concern regarding the regional military escalation since 28th February, which has gravely undermined the November 24 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. The situation in Lebanon cannot be viewed in isolation from this broader escalation across the Middle East. Heightened confrontation and unjustified attacks on several brotherly countries, which Pakistan has condemned, have gravely aggravated regional security. and stability. At this critical juncture, dialogue and diplomacy must prevail over confrontation.

De-escalation, restraint, and renewed diplomatic engagement are urgently required to prevent further deterioration of the regional security environment. Only through sustained political dialogue and respect for international law, can the region move towards stability and peace. So that's where things stand as of this morning. It's early here in the morning. certainly change. Maybe these Israelis back off Lebanon. I don't think so. I highly doubt it. But the U.S. and Iran are not on the same page. The U.S. says that it's a 15-point plan, which is the basis for negotiations. Those 15 points were the ones that were reiterated by Steve Wyckoff from the very beginning of the war, which said you have no enrichment, you have no

sanctions relief. You have to give up all your missiles. You have to give up all your proxies. You have to reopen the Straits of Hormuz, all this different stuff. Iran is saying we control the Straits of Hormuz. We give up all the sanctions. We get to keep our missiles. We get to have a ceasefire in Lebanon, which is it? I have no clue. And I mean, right now, I don't know, maybe this is all a disaster, but as long as people can sit across the table in Islamabad, I have some hope that something could come out of this. Of course, even if that were to happen, it's not like we haven't bombed them on the cover of darkness. Or look, we also, this is the problem here on the fragility of all of this, and the fact that, by the way, reporting is that not a single part of this was written down

anywhere. That's why everyone can claim this was agreed to and that was agreed to. Let's think about it. Seasfire, the United States forces the ceasefire in Gaza in the opening days of the administration. Great. But guess what happens? After 30 days, it collapses. Israel gets to do whatever it wants. A 12-day war, we bomb in. Everybody declares victory. What happens? Seven months later, we're back into a regime-change war. Even if we do get into an agreement here, I mean, if you're Iran, if you're any of us, would you really bet against Israel's ability to either sabotage or to drag the United States or convince Trump, once again, they'll show him some BS images. Like, look, they're enriching uranium.

It's all fake. But who knows, right? His own advisors will tell him it's fake, but maybe he will believe them. Like, that's the cycle. We got three more years left of this. I mean, it's just how can you truly guarantee that this is going to end? Yeah. You can't.

Well, and here's the thing, too, is Trump has to be able to sell some kind of victory narrative at least to his base, right? The rest of the population is not going to buy it. But at least his base has to believe that this went well for us and we won and we got something out of it. And I don't know how you do that, given the state of affairs and what Iran is going to rightly demand. I mean, even if you dramatically water down their 10-point proposal, you still have a clear U.S. defeat, which countries around the world are going to recognize, which even Fox News, you know,

I watched them a bit. And at first they were very much doing the like, oh, Trump, art of the deal, and he made this threat and all the panic hands were freaking out. But look at how he was able to secure peace in the world, blah, blah, blah. By the next morning, when you had too much reporting on what these 10, I mean, we've known about what the 10 points are, or less for quite a while now, thanks to the reporting of Ryan and Jeremy and others. But once the mainstream press started having to talk about, well, what are these 10 points? Even Fox News could no longer be like, look at this marvelous. victory because we're talking about reparations, we're talking about complete sanctions relief, and we're talking about a new status quo in the Strait of Hormuz that amounts to tens of

at the least, tens of billions of dollars of revenue into Iran's coffers. J.P. Morgan said it would be 92 billion a year if they just charge the $1 million a barrel fee. That would make them one of the richest countries in the entire Middle East. I mean, I would put a marker down 25 years from now if they get anything remotely close to this, either sanctions relief or some sort of oil, they will be as rich, if not richer than the UAE. Yeah. And these other places... And this is already a middle-income country that has been dramatically hurt, certainly,

by our sanctions. But this is a, you know, relatively well-developed, educated country with a lot going for them. Obviously, natural... Obviously, very strategic positioning in the globe. That's why when Robert Pape says, they have now emerged as a new fourth world power, I don't think that that is overstating the case whatsoever. And so that's what makes it so difficult to see how this is resolved and why obviously the decision to get into this disastrous war was such a horrific, catastrophic mistake

from the interests of the U.S. Empire perspective. Because in order to bring it to a close, you are going to have to agree to something like what those 10 points from the Iranians are. And I just, I don't know if even Donald Trump, who is perhaps the greatest bullshit artist in history if even he can sell that as some sort of a victory to his base in this country. Canadian women are looking for more. More out of themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are out of them. And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast. I'm Jennifer Stewart. And I'm Catherine Clark. And in this podcast, we interview

Canada's most inspiring women. Entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, politicians, and newsmakers, all at different stages of their journey. So if you're looking at, to connect, then we hope you'll join us. Listen to the Honest Talk podcast on I Heart Radio or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Why hasn't a woman formally participated in a Formula One race weekend in over a decade? Think about how many skills they have to develop at such a young age. What can we learn from all of the new F1 romance novels suddenly popping up every year? He still smelled of podium champagne and expensive friction.

And how did a 2023 event called Wagageddon? change the paddock forever. That day is just seared into my memory. I'm culture writer and F1 expert Lily Herman, and these are just a few of the questions I'm tackling on No Grip, a Formula One Culture podcast that dives into the under-explored pockets of the sport. In each episode, a different guests and I will go deeper into the wacky mishaps, scandals and sagas, both on the track and far away from it

that have made F1 a delightful, decadent dumpster fire for more than 75 years. Listen to No Grip, on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast. My latest episode is with Noah Kahn, the singer-songwriter behind the multi-platinum global hit, Stick Season, and one of the biggest voices in music today.

Noah opens up about the pressure that followed his rapid success, his struggles with mental health and body image, and the fear of starting again after such a defining moment in his career. It's easy to look at somebody and be like, Your life must be so sick. Man, you have no clue. Talking about the mental illness stuff, it used to be this thing that I was ashamed of.

I'm just now trying to unwind this idea that I have to be unhealthy physically or in pain in some emotional way in my life to create good music. If someone says that I did a good job, I'm like, yeah, I'm good. Someone says that I suck. I'm like, I suck.

Getting to talk about this is not common for me. Right now I need it more than ever. Listen to online. On purpose with Jay Chetty on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. But let's turn to Lebanon, just to give people a very clear view into what's happening over there. We had this announcement from the IDF. By the way, after the ceasefire, here's what they had to say. The IDF just carried out the largest strike against Chisbalah terrorists since the beginning of Operation Roaring Line.

In just one minute, the IDF struck 100 Hezbollah military targets in different locations across Lebanon. The targets include command centers, missile infrastructure, and assets used by the Radoan Special Forces. This operation was based on weeks of precise intelligence and careful planning. These strikes come as Chisbalah changes the way it is operating. In recent weeks, the IDF intelligence identified Hizbalah moving beyond its usual struggles and building positions in more areas across Lebanon, including civilian neighborhoods. Hizbalah's use of civilians as human shields, is their strategy. Chisbalah dragged Lebanon into this war,

and it is now trying to spread that danger to even more Lebanese communities. Our message is clear. We are fighting Chisbalah, not the people of Lebanon. We said this from day one. We will not allow Chisbalah to pose a threat to our civilians.

Interesting accent. Unstranded clearly, almost like it's from around here. Anyway, if you take a look at what that gentleman was saying, about they're not at war with the people of Lebanon. Let's go ahead and play some of A7, shall we? This is what the strikes were. In the middle of Beirut and in Lebanon, you can clearly see smoke and apartment buildings and all of these civilian areas. The Belgian foreign minister yesterday actually revealed that he was in Lebanon while this was happening and had to take shelter

from very close to where the strikes were happening. Imagine our Secretary of State. So this is a European Union, foreign minister, who's literally in the country, had no idea that this was happening. You could see some of the rubble, children and civilians and others that were buried underneath. Israel taking credit, saying, oh, well, we killed about 200 Hezbollah commanders as a result of this operation. The operation, by the way, is called Operation Eternal Darkness. I did not make that up. They did, which Tucker's episode made clear to me. Again, as a secular person, I wasn't aware. That's apparently how they refer to hell in the Bible in the New Testament. So potentially a, you know, a biblical meaning intended in some of this. Let's put A8 up there as well, just to show you all. This was one which appeared to be a funeral, which was struck. And you can see actually some of the caskets and other things of the damage that was done there. Again, I'm sure that they're claiming it was Hezbollah funeral, possible. Not really usual. in terms of most Western countries, but of course par for the course.

Drop site has the roundup here, let's put it up there, in terms of the death toll. They say Israeli strikes killed 254 and wounded 1,000 across Lebanon from Lebanon's civil defense. The figures represent the toll for a single day based on the data. Beirut had 92 killed, 742 injured. The southern suburbs had 61, 200 injured, and then various other districts all across the country. you could see with dozens killed and multiple hundreds of people that were injured as a result of the strike. So that's what's happening right now. Not to mention, let's put A10 up there on the screen.

This part is very relevant, Crystal. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain all reported attacks after the Iran-U.S. truce. Now, you may say, wow, crazy Iran, why would they do something like that? It turns out, though, that there was a very mysterious attack, again, after. the truce or the fragile truce was struck, in which Iran reported that a key energy strike of it or energy site of it was struck. Now, we do not yet know who carried out that strike. The United States military has said it wasn't them. The Israelis have not said either.

There is some speculation inside of Iran that this was the United Arab Emirates that carried out the strike. Now, why does that matter? Because as we have said here now, ad nauseum, It's not just Israel that doesn't want this truth. The Gulf finds it untenable. They're like, we can't be paying the Iranians, not after they've bombed the hell out of all of our countries. And that's why I think Iran was so forceful in its reaction against all the Gulf countries, not just because they believe it was a UAE, clearly. They think that it was.

But that's why they struck the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. That's why they struck oil infrastructure in Bahrain, oil infrastructure in the UAE. it was a message also to the Gulf. So don't just forget, it's not just Israel that wants to drag us back in. It's these Gulf countries, too, because for them, the truce. UAE in particular. They've been, I mean, they're not even hiding it. They went before the UN to try and authorize a use of force resolution.

Like, they're pretty open. They want regime change. Their boosters all over Twitter, you can go and look are like, this is unacceptable. We need regime change right now. So their aims are explicit at this point. I mean, for, I would say it's more existential for UAE than it is for Israel. I mean, Israel's nuclear arms, you know, they throw their weight around. Obviously, they've still got our backing, et cetera.

UAE has been exposed as completely vulnerable. I mean, this is basically sort of like a fake state to begin with. And so they now that are they're in this position are like, okay, how is, how are Dubai and Abu Dhabi ever going to come back so long as we have the specter of this same government in power that was hitting our high-rise luxury hotels? And, you know, all of the wealthy expats are fleeing and probably a lot of the indentured servant. labor force, exploited labor force, will also look for greener pastures as well. So they feel that this is quite existential for them. And I don't think that they're wrong about that. So that's why they are now so committed that they're the ones that went to the UN to try to pass this resolution through Security Council, which failed to open the Strait of Hormuz by any means necessary.

That was the provision they took to the resolution they took to the UN. And then they've also said, which is why it is not at all unbelievable that they were behind these strikes, that they would join directly as direct combatants, not just allowing U.S. use of their space and cooperating, but actually directly joining themselves as combatants. So that appears to be what may be happening right now. Just with regard to Lebanon, the level of death and destruction here is just really horrifying. The attacks on medics, the attacks on civilian apartment buildings, the attacks on all the infrastructure there. And it's worth keeping in mind the Daha'iahia doctrine, which many of you will have heard about, this came, because Dehia is a Shia section of Beirut.

This comes directly out of Israel's war in Lebanon in 2006. And the idea is that you bomb the hell on a civilian infrastructure and put pressure on them so that Hezbollah or in the case of Gaza so that Hamas loses public support. Now, this has not been effective in terms of a strategy. It turns out to just be, you know, basically seeking bloodlust and to satiate a society that is increasingly genocidal. But that comes directly out of Lebanon. That appears to be very much what they're doing here as well. B.B., we're going to talk more about this later, has made it clear. He doesn't want the war over. A lot of the most stringent Zionists, both here and in Israel, they are very upset

with the possibility that the war could be over. They want to continue this thing indefinitely. They at least want to be able to go back to sort of mow the lawn strategy with regard to Iran. And so they are doing everything they can to blow up any even shred of a possibility of ending the war. And so not only are they continuing with their illegal invasion of Lebanon, which apparently doesn't have a right to exist, unlike Israel, which we're told about all the time. But anyway, they're continuing with that invasion, but they also escalated it dramatically. And the level of death is comparable to some of the worst days that we saw in Gaza, just mass slaughtering. And you could see that in the images that I just, yeah, sorry, I tweeted about this, ethnic cleansing.

People, what are you talking about? They literally said a million of you have to go. Yeah, and that anybody who wants to come back can't come back near the border. Yeah. What do you call that? And they warned Christians against hiding Shia Muslims. Yeah.

It's like, I mean, look, sorry, the parallels with the Nazi regime could not be more undeniable. I'm just like, look, you know, we take the rhetoric for what it is. You could look at the IDF account. They drew a map, it's almost half of Lebanon, and they said everyone below the map has to leave. What do you call that? Just tell me a better one, a temporary evacuation

in which, by the way, they also say we will never allow those homes to be rebuilt near our border. That's like us going into northern Mexico and what's the city across from El Paso? And just being like, yeah, you all got to go. Sorry, there's too much drug violence. Every single one of you, you're no longer allowed to live here.

They already have completely destroyed a number of Lebanese villages. Just wiped them off the map. Like, that is what they're up to here. And so, yeah, you can see from the Iranian perspective, first of all, you've got just the horror of allowing that to continue. Second of all, Hezbo is an important part of how they do project regional power. And Hezbollah has proven a lot of the analysis wrong.

I mean, they were really seen to have been effectively destroyed and dramatically weakened by the Beeper attack from Israel. And obviously, their top leadership had been assassinated. etc. They've proven to be much more resilient and much stronger than was expected. They've operated very effectively in coordination with Iran. So Iran is not going to be excited about seeing that capability and that force projection given up. So yeah, you can see why Iran is drawing a hard line in the sand on this and has been clear from the very first time we learned anything about what their requirements were to end the war. Lebanon was included in that. And if Trump and

JD Vance and Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner thought that the Iranians would just go, well, I guess Lebanon can continue to get decimated and Hezbollah destroyed, and we'll just look the other way. I think we already see that that was a completely wrong calculation as evidenced by the fact not only the rhetoric from the Iranians, which is one thing, but the fact that they went ahead and completely closed the Strait of Hormuz now where previously there was some tanker traffic going through. Now the situation is actually worse. Yesterday there were zero oil tankers that went through the straight of foremost based on the publicly available data. Yeah, that's right.

All right. We got Janus starting by. Let's get to it. Canadian women are looking for more. More out of themselves, their businesses, their elected leaders, and the world are out of them. And that's why we're thrilled to introduce the Honest Talk podcast. I'm Jennifer Stewart. And I'm Catherine Clark. And in this podcast, we interview Canada's most inspiring women. Entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, politicians, and newsmakers, all at different stages of their journey.

So if you're looking to connect, Then we hope you'll join us. Listen to the Honest Talk podcast on I Heart Radio or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Why hasn't a woman formally participated in a Formula One race weekend in over a decade? Think about how many skills they have to develop at such a young age. What can we learn from all of the new F1 romance novels suddenly popping up every year? He still smelled of podium champagne and expensive friction. And how did a 2023 event called Wagageddon change?

the paddock forever. That day is just seared into my memory. I'm culture writer and F1 expert Lily Herman, and these are just a few of the questions I'm tackling on no grip, a Formula One culture podcast that dives into the under-explored pockets of the sport. In each episode, a different guests and I will go deeper into the wacky mishap scandals and sagas, both on the track and far away from it that have made F1 a delightful, decadent dumpster fire for more than 75 years. Listen to No Grip on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast. My latest episode is with Noah Kahn, the singer-songwriter behind the multi-platinum global

hit, stick season, and one of the biggest voices in music today. Noah opens up about the pressure that followed his rapid success, his struggles with mental health and body image, and the fear of starting again after such a defining moment in his career. It's easy to look at somebody and be like, your life must be so sick. man you have no clue talking about the mental illness stuff it used to be this thing that I was ashamed of I'm just now trying to unwind

this idea that I have to be unhealthy physically or in pain in some emotional way in my life to create good music if someone says that I did a good job I'm like yeah I'm good someone says that I suck I'm like I suck getting to talk about this

is not common for me right now I need it more than ever listen to On Purpose with Jay Chetty on the IHAR radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. For more on the State of the War or this quote-unquote ceasefire, we're fortunate to be joined this morning by Janus Verifakas. He, of course, is the former finance minister of Greece and host of the Econa class podcast. Great to see, sir.

Good to see you. Thank you for having me back. Yeah, of course. So first, just your reaction to whatever is going on right now. Do you think that it's possible we could secure some sort of a lasting piece here? or is this already fallen apart? No, I don't think it's fallen apart. I mean, allow me to preface my assessment with my astonishment that, you know, Donald Trump

persecuted the war, which is a textbook case of how not to start the war, how not to prosecute it, and how not to end it. You know, the essence of the ceasefire is, of course, as you are pointing out in your program so far, it's just a totally ramshackle. It's a mess. But even though you can see that it is being undermined by Israel, there isn't why Netanyahu continues to commit massacres, not just to continue to persecute the war in Lebanon,

but actually, you know, he upped the end with what can only be described as a massacre the other day in response to the ceasefire. It's because Netanyahu is trying to undermine the ceasefire. Netanyahu's mantle has always been, has always been permanent war in the area, constantly trying to distract public opinion in the United States, in Europe, in the rest of the world, from the genocide in Gaza, from the ethnic cleansing in particular in the West Bank and in Jerusalem. So he will do whatever it takes to make sure that some war is happening. It doesn't necessarily need to be Lebanon, it can be in Yemen, it can be in Jordan, it can be somewhere.

and, you know, he still has Donald Trump hooked because there is no doubt in my mind that when the Pakistani general field marshal, whatever his title is, when he announced that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire, surely he didn't do this without the support of the Trump administration. So clearly that Anyahu is undermining Trump. That's what Israel does.

It undermines the interests of the United States. and always succeeds in roping the United States into its ethnic cleansing genocidal campaign. So that's point number one. Point number two is that the deal that is being fashioned, as we speak, is a major victory for Iran. I mean, did you see what J.P. Morgan did? I mean, they did the arithmetic, and they discovered that.

The state of Iran is going to make out of charging tolls on vessels crossing the states of Hormuz. They will make something between $70.90 billion a year. It's important to juxtapose this against what Panama makes from the Panama Canal. It makes five.

Or, you know, Egypt from the Suez Canal, it makes ten. So the Iranians are going to be making between $70.90 billion. This, given the sanctions, this represents around 20, 25% of national income, of GDP. They've come out pretty nicely out of it. they have had the consent of the Gulf states that they were bombarding, in my view, in self-defense, but nevertheless, they were bombarding Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and those, the GCCC countries, the Gulf State Council countries, have consented to these

stores being charged, it seems, from what I read. So it is a complete catastrophe for Donald Trump, but there is one silver lining for him that, you know, he's found an excuse, an off-ramp for getting out of a war that he knows he should never have allowed himself to get into. Yeah, sir, one thing I'm curious, an angle that we've seen under-explored here is how much of the C-spire was just the United States. There was some reporting, let's put B1 up there on the screen, the Chinese Foreign Ministry now coming out and taking a significant amount of credit. Allegedly, it was them who made several calls to Tehran to try and to force some sort of a ceasefire or at the very least get them to the table. It seems to have been very influential to the new Ayatollah and to the Supreme National Security

Council in Iran. What do you make here of China's role in explicitly pushing this role towards? towards a ceasefire, and in some ways, working as some sort of an intermediate or almost guarantor of parts of Iranian national security and energy policy. There is no doubt whatsoever that a great winner out of this awful murderous war is China. China, from the moment that Tomahawk missile hit that school in southern Iran onwards, China has been winning. They don't need to do anything.

They just need to sit back, relax, to the extent that it is possible to relax these days, with the massacres that we watch, and just take the credit for being the adults in the room, internationally, for being reliable partners to anyone that they have done business with, of not flip-flopping, of not threatening with Armageddon, you know, a civilization like Iran, or any country for that matter. Now, regarding the particular diplomatic engagement of China, well, this is not the first time, is it, Zagar. Let's not forget that it was China that brokered a hugely important deal between Iran and, on the one hand, Saudi Arabia.

That was back in 2020, 2021, and then with the United Arab Emirates. You know, the Saudis, after decades of animosity towards Iran, opened an embassy in Tehran. And that was done with the Chinese working their diplomatic magic behind the scenes. It was a source of major, major discontentment from Washington, D.C., both under the Biden administration and now under Trump. But, you know, China has been playing this game very cleverly. Having said that, let's not give them too much credit for it, because, you know, it is as if Washington, D.C. is doing its best to lose every diplomatic brownie point.

America has ever won since 1994. Sure. Well, and equally perhaps significant is the lack of involvement from Europe in, you know, securing at least this, you know, fragile ceasefire or whatever we're calling this thing right now. China was obviously involved. Pakistan very much involved. Turkey reportedly and Egypt somewhat involved. But, you know, the main players are not in Western Europe.

Sadly, I'm saying sadly as a European and a Europeanist who has been observing this European Union of ours sliding steadfastly into an unethical irrelevance. The moment we not we as persons but as the European Union went

all out to support Israel's genocide and Gaza, we lost every kind of opportunity that ever presented itself to occupy the high moral ground to open lines of communication with Arab countries with Israel

itself because, you know, Netanyahu looks at the European leaders and sees Lili Patians that he can do whatever, he can wipe the floor clean with them. And they may save few things here and there, but then they will fall into line. And the moment Israel starts bombarding Iran illegally and criminally, the Europeans, you know, either whistle in the wind or allow the Americans to use their bases like the British base on Cyprus and a crotiri that Kirstama, whatever he might have set against the Donald Trump campaign Iran, essentially provided to the United States Air Force to launch sorties against Iran. So the Europeans have rendered themselves unethically irrelevant yet again.

And, you know, it's, I have a theory because I was involved in the great Euro crisis 10 years ago and beyond that. It's the euro crisis. The way we misunderstood it. You know, the powers that be crushed our populations with austerity for the many, printing trillions and trillions of euros for the very few. We don't have a government. We have many different governments.

We have a commission that nobody has ever elected, so it lacks democratic credibility, legitimation. And you can see that ever since that euro crisis happened, and then with the pandemic, it was a pathetic response to the pandemic. You know, heads of states got together and decided to borrow together something like $800 billion. And they started passing it on from one country,

to another, as if this was, you know, some kind of meeting of the mafiosid, delving, delving up between them, some loot. So Europe has been on a steady decline for a very long time. And you can see this now, you know, playing out just strategically, also the situation in Ukraine. I mean, it is a right old mess, the European policy towards Ukraine. They don't have a policy for peace in Ukraine, and they don't have a policy for war in Ukraine. I think that says it all. Right. You know, sir, I want to get your reaction to some of the later breaking news here out of Washington.

There is an alleged comment by Mark Rut that he told NATO countries that they must dispatch warships or Donald Trump will threaten some sort of action against NATO. How do you see the likelihood of this considering NATO's straddling game that they've been playing? they've been supportive of the United States. They've also been largely supportive of the U.S. aims, at the very least, rhetorically, in some sort of Iranian regime change or ballistic missile reduction, but also not wanting to get involved in the crisis. How are they going to handle this if the U.S. continues to try and put pressure on them

to deploy warships even now in the midst of a ceasefire to the Straits of Hormuz? Well, to begin with, whether warships are deployed or not is irrelevant. Because, you know, if you're sitting on Iran, and you have your missiles and your drones. You don't care about warships. All you need to do is to get one of the tankers or two. That's sufficient. So those warships are going to be fighting a losing battle.

No, look, the more interesting question is, why did Donald Trump and his many men, mostly men, why did they contradict themselves? Because on the one hand, Donald Trump has been dismissing Britain, Germany, France, as military dwarves. And he's not wrong to say that. You know, Britain couldn't even send a single vessel to the Gulf. They just didn't have it.

It wasn't available. One that the dissent had to be done back for servicing. So, you know, that was a strategy. Donald Trump disparaging the Europeans as useless, militarily. And therefore saying that, you know, NATO is a great drain on the United States and forcing the Europeans to pay more since you. You can't do the work, the defensive or offensive work, and you rely on Americans to do it.

You pay you rascals. That was a kind of position by Donald Trump and his administration. Now that he's calling upon the Europeans to come and help him clear the states of her moves, it is as if he's admitting that they do have a power which they are, however, not using. So it shows desperation on the part of Donald Trump and his administration. he had a strategy which made some sense of being dismissive to the Europeans now he's contradicting himself look the future of NATO is

severely circumscribed and darkened by what has happened I think that the belief the faith in some kind of alignment that is structurally constructed between the United States of the European Union I think that's gone, and that's gone independently of who is in the White House. It's going to be eroded. I think it's a good thing, personally, because it was never in the interest of Europe. In the end, it wasn't in the interest of the people of the United States.

Maybe the military industrial complex did really very well out of that. But, you know, Europe now is in dire straits. They have to decide that NATO is not for them, that NATO is not in their interest anymore. They can't decide that because they are so heavily invested in the concept. NATO. So they will be like, you know, rabbits that are caught up in the headlights of the oncoming truck. Yanis, I want to get your perspective on how much the world has changed as a result of this war. Whether it's right now they're able to come to an agreement or the Americans decide they want more pain before we come to some sort of an agreement to end this war, I think we can

see basically the outlines of what is going to emerge. You're very likely to have more or less the Iranian 10 points, you know, it put into into action, including a new status quo, new reality around the Strait of Formos. So how much does that resolution of this war change the global order? Oh, hugely, firstly, it changed the law of the sea. You know, up until now, the notion that you would have to pay at all in order to cross through international waters was unheard of. Donald Trump put this on the map.

And, you know, if the Iranians manage to do this in order to recoup some of the funds that are necessary in order to rebuild that which Israel and the United States destroyed during the last few weeks, well, what next? Maybe the Houthis will start charging for letting vessels go through the Red Sea. Maybe other nations or groups or organizations will start doing the same thing. A precedent has been set. So international law has been changed, mind you, of course, in the Red Sea. international law was totally rubbish by Israel.

Every time it ethnically cleansed the Palestinians in Gaza against the direct order of the international criminal, not criminal, in the International Court of Justice, I should say. The United States has done this a number of times, the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003 by Joseph W. So, you know, but still, the law of the sea had not been challenged to such a vicious experience. extent. Now it is in Smytherines. Also, the fact that the Gulf states will have to rewrite,

at least in their minds, their business model. Their business model is kaput. It cannot continue as it is. And the Gulf states were crucial in the American design of the Middle East, all the way from Morocco, all the way to Iran, maybe all the way to Pakistan. There was a plan for how to base the strategy of the United States and of Israel on the Abraham Accords of effectively loering Gulf states, the Gulf states, into some kind of geo-economic alliance with the United States and with Israel that would, you know, be the 30 pieces of silver that they needed in order to betray further the Palestinians. And that's gone. That plan has gone. And as you said in your previous question, now we have a resurgent Chinese

diplomacy that is working very methodically behind the scenes, providing the stability and the trust that the United States has so casually jeopardized. Wow. Stark warning, but as great, always good analysis. Thank you very much, sir. We appreciate your time. Thank you. Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast.

My latest episode is with Noah Kohn, the singer-songwriter behind the multi-platinum global hit stick season. I'm one of the biggest voices in music today. Talking about the mental illness stuff, it used to be this thing that I was ashamed of. Getting to talk about this is not common for me. Right now I need it more than ever. Listen to On Purpose with Jay Chetty on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. In 2023, Bachelor star Clayton Eckerd was accused of fathering twins, but the pregnancy appeared to be a hoax. You doctored this particular test twice in so much. I doctored the test once.

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