Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 6/13/24: Trump And Biden Criminal And Corrupt Say Voters, Office Fire Sale Amid Real Estate Doom Spiral, McDonald's Surveillance Price Gouging

Episode Date: June 13, 2024

Krystal and Saagar discuss Americans viewing Trump and Biden as criminal and old, office fire sale amid real estate doom spiral, McDonalds surveillance price gouging.    To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.com/   Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Ready or Not 2024 is here and we here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that. Let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed, we do. Many things to get into this morning. So we have, thanks to our friends over at JL Partners, some exclusive polling, specifically some exclusive

word clouds, how people feel about Biden, about Trump, who their dream president would be, how they feel about Trump's convictions. It's really interesting stuff. So I think you guys are going to get a lot out of that. We also had some surprising Ohio election results, a little tea leave reading that we can do there. We'll break that down for you. Additional polling about how you guys feel about Kamala Harris and the prospect that she could be the next president if something were to happen to Joe Biden. So we'll break that down for you as well. We have some important economic news. Inflation appears to have slowed, but we also have a dire situation

in the commercial real estate market. You will not believe the fire sale prices that some large Manhattan office buildings are being sold for at this point. And this is just the beginning of what is going to be a pretty rocky road ahead for commercial real estate. It's totally nuts. Yeah, so we'll break that down for you. We've got a lot of updates

coming out of Israel as well. Updates on those ongoing ceasefire negotiations, where we are with that, what the U.S. is saying about it, what Hamas is saying about it, what Israel is saying about it. Plus, we have a new U.N. report that looks at atrocities committed both by Hamas on October 7th in particular and by Israel through the end of last year. They are accusing Israel of committing extermination. But there are a lot of really interesting, important, horrifying details in this report that we want to bring to you. So we'll break that down for you as well. We've got David Dayen on. He's talking about how prices are really set and looking in particular about this new move towards variable pricing. Basically, it's using AI to price gouge you for all that you are worth.

And I am looking at some comments from Donnie Deutsch just basically like adopting the logic of Bin Laden to justify killing innocent civilians in Gaza. Oh, that's always a good thing. He's very proud of himself for that one too. He was tweeting it out. I'm sure he is. All right, before we get to that,

there was a fantastic CounterPoints debate that will drop for all of our premium subscribers tonight between Ryan Grimm, Emily, and Oren Kass on immigration and economics, left versus right. I know people really enjoy those, so if you want to become a premium subscriber, BreakingPoints.com, it drops for everybody tonight. Otherwise, it's going to be available on all feeds. And if you want to be able to support our work, our partnerships, JLPay Partner, CounterPoints Fridays, et cetera, we're a five-day-a-week now program. You can become a premium member as well.

Now, as Crystal said, we've got some exclusive word clouds that we can drop for everybody courtesy of JLP. Let's go ahead and start with our first one. These word clouds are very illuminating as they kind of tell us a little bit about how people feel generally. So who is your dream president? Well, Donald and Trump beating out significantly. Joe Biden, that you can see, which is off there on the right for those who are watching. Obama and Barack also beating out Biden. Kennedy, pretty prominently placed there. Michelle Obama, Bernie and Sanders both making a little bit of a comeback there. And then on the margins, you can just see a few people. Clinton, DeSantis, Mike Johnson, Buttigieg.

Who is that Buttigieg person? Abe Lincoln made it on there. Yeah, Abe Lincoln. Hey, you know, it could be worse. He's about as alive as Joe Biden at this point. The Vladimir down there, presumably Vladimir Zelensky. Ramaswamy is there, spelled incorrectly. The Rock?

Truly the American people, Ramaswamy, but spelled incorrectly. JFK, Mark Zuckerberg. I don't know what this means. People. What exactly does that mean? People are my favorite. We got Jon Stewart on there. We got Jon Stewart.

There's one that just says Tom? Yeah. Who would that be? Tom. I'm trying to remember. Brady? Yeah, maybe. Okay, I can go for that. I like Tom Tom. Yeah. Who would that be? Tom. I'm trying to wrap up. Brady? Yeah, maybe. Okay. I can go for that. I like Tom Brady. I can go for that. He's a nice guy. We got George on there too. George Clooney. Anyway, those are the small ones. Obviously Donald Trump and

Obama will dominate the field. Now, okay. Let's get to the actual nitty gritty. 2024. Let's go to the next part, please. Here what we have. Who is your dream president? So amongst Democrats, Obama vastly outperforms Biden, even whenever you look at both Barack and Joe. Now on independent, it's pretty clear here. You have Trump, clearly who's the favorite, but then Obama is number two. Biden's name barely even appears in the independent graphic. Amongst Republicans, obviously Donald Trump. Let's go to the next one and actually look at how people feel about the individual candidates. This might actually be a problem for Trump. Donald Trump in a word,

this is amongst all voters. Criminal is actually the one that comes out. You also see the conflicting and obvious just duality of man here in the American electorate. You've got criminal and evil and asshole. You've also got corrupt, bad, right? But the crook, terrible. But then you have amazing. You have smart. You have honest. You have people who say that he's bold, he's successful, he's excellent, he's determined. But then you have dangerous, you have confident, you have loud, you have business, you have audacious, you have strong. So people, it's just clear. I mean, I've always thought this. People either love Trump or hate him. There's nobody in this country who feels medium about Trump, you know, at this point in time. So this was illuminating in that, look, the criminal stuff.

Yeah, it could certainly hurt him, but you also can see the depth of how the people who do like him, they like him a lot. Whereas with Biden, they're kind of like, eh, I would really prefer to vote for Obama, but I guess I could vote for Biden. Yeah. I mean, listen, the fact that criminal is the number one thing does give credence to the, you know, folks who say that the indictments and now his guilty conviction are significant if that's the number one. I think, do we have the partisan breakdown on this one? I don't remember. But if you have criminal as the top thing that's jumping out, you know, that is a significant takeaway that that's starting to solidify in people's minds. So if you look, you know, the Democrat one, you're not going to be surprised. Evil is number one. Criminal is number

two. But yeah, if you look at the independents, they're not in love with Donald Trump. Disgusting, corrupt, criminal. Those are some of the biggest ones. You do have a significant number who said honest, but mostly really negative adjectives applied to him from independents, Republicans. The number one is American. Okay, smart, awesome leader. So clearly, you know, this is no surprise. Republicans still feel very favorably

towards him. But this is the tale of an election between two men that no one feels, that people who are swing voters oftentimes feel negatively about both. And then the question is, who is going to, who are they going to hate more? But yeah, I do think it's noteworthy the fact that criminal jumped up here and is pretty prominent in people's minds after Trump is convicted. Yeah, I think you're right. Let's go ahead to the Joe Biden slide, please. This is going to be important. So this is a problem here. This has brought the country together around this one. It certainly has. What is the number one thing? Joe Biden in a word.

Oh, all right. Senile. And after that, you see the partisan ones. You can see incompetent. This is my personal favorite. It just says Biden. So guy who is out there who says, respond to Joe Biden in a word, and you just say Biden. You've also got horrible and terrible and corrupt and dumb. But you have trustworthy, you have caring, you have country. I don't really know what country exactly means. Amazing person. I don't really know what country exactly means. Amazing person. I don't really know them. People. People are interesting. Catholic is up there. Awesome. Priority economy. But then you have dishonest. You have bad. You have senile. You have poor. You have evil, hack, misinformed. But, you know, very broadly, the number one thing that people

say when they think about Biden is he's just so damn old. And we're going to get to this in a bit about the danger of what that means, because it's not only lack of faith in his ability to complete his term. They have to consider then probably more deeply than at any time in American history, who the number two is, Kamala Harris. And so let's go to the next part, please. And just to show people Joe Biden in a word, even amongst Democrats, old is the single biggest winner. Trustworthy, though, is there, and honest and caring, also Joe and Biden, which is funny. But then independent, what's, I mean, what is number one? Old and incompetent is number one and number two. Amongst Republicans, you again see old and incompetent. Interestingly

enough, old does not win as big amongst Republicans. They consider to hate him for other reasons. You see incompetent, bad, liar, idiot, horrible. But old is the predominant one for people who are independent voters. And this also fits with a lot of the polling that we've seen right now, where a lot of the hate both parties numbers are beginning to break towards Donald Trump. However, I'd be remiss if I said, didn't say, the 538 presidential production came out, Crystal. They've got Biden winning 53 out of 100 times. Obviously, Trump is winning 47 times, so it's effectively a toss-up. But the reason why he has any strength whatsoever is something we continue to hammer home on this show.

Those older, wider states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are keeping Biden in the game. If he can hold on to those, he can still win the presidential electoral college with 272 electoral votes and eke out a victory. It's actually theoretically possible, and within the realm of possibility, he would win an EV victory or an EC victory and actually lose the popular vote, which would be insane. But it's definitely possible, given the way that a lot of younger demographics and Sunbelt is trending towards Donald Trump right now. I could really almost see this election going any direction. Yeah, there's like 10 possibilities. I mean, I could see Biden winning all the swing states. I could see Trump winning all the swing states. I could see it being really split. You know, the Sunbelt goes to Trump. The industrial Midwest goes to Biden. I could see Trump winning all the swing states. I could see it being really split. You know, the Sun Belt goes to Trump. The industrial Midwest goes to Biden. I could see, you know, the Electoral College and the popular vote going any number of different ways.

Although it is interesting that previously Republicans have always had an advantage with the Electoral College in modern history. It does seem like that that is shifting significantly. So I don't know. I mean, listen, for Biden, what are you going to do about the fact that the entire country, including your own party, says that the number one thing they associate with you is old? You can't fix that. You can't fix it. Maybe he can allay some of those concerns if he has really strong debate performances. I'm sure that's what they're hoping for. I'm sure they're working up whatever drug cocktail is going to get him revved and going

for those debate nights. Maybe that's enough to allay some of the concerns. But, you know, you do have a unifying consensus in the country that that's how people associate. That's the number one thing they think of. And obviously that's going to be a concern for folks. I see a lot of people arguing online that like, no, that's not it. And that's not the issue. And there's, you know, you're making too much of this age thing and it's overblown, et cetera. People have made the judgment for themselves. Now, there are a lot of other factors to consider, including the fact that number one

word that comes to mind for Trump is criminal. Although his are kind of more scattered, people have all sorts of thoughts and feelings about him. But, you know, old dude versus criminal, what an inspiring election we have in front of us. It's interesting, too. I mean, whenever you consider it, too, on the age thing, this is almost as much of a media story. There's an interesting development right now. Astiad Herndon, he's a New York Times reporter, and he has been traveling the country. And he continues to get piled on by his colleagues and by a lot of liberals because he's like, guys, Biden's age is the only thing that I hear across every single place I go. He's old.

He's old. He's old. He just yesterday, he goes three times a week. I log onto Twitter. I get yelled at for saying Biden's age is his fundamental political liability. And then I scroll past 750 viral memes characterizing the president as senile. It is truly incredible. And he's like, it's not that the memes informs what I'm saying. It's that every piece of data in the last couple of years

is that quite literally, and I've traveled the country since the midterms asking groups, what is the most important thing in November? And all I hear is he's old, old, old, old. And DC and the New York political class just want to move right past and they refuse to take it seriously. Any of us who engage with any normal person anywhere, I mean, you know, it's trite to talk about Uber drivers and barbershop, but it's like at a certain point, like how many times do you have to hear it from the same old person? There's no way I can vote for this guy. He's going to die if he's in office. That's a very commonly held sentiment. In fact, maybe the most commonly held about Joe Biden today. So can he move past it? Yes, he certainly can if he makes Trump out to be the boogeyman. But it's a problem. It's a problem.

And it's a problem they compound. And we'll get to this a little more specifically in the Kamala block by picking a vice president people also don't have confidence in. Because if you had someone in there that it was like, you know, OK, well, you know, if things don't work out with Joe looking at the actuarial tables, then we've got someone in the number two position that we feel good about. But that's just not the sentiment that most Americans have about Kamala Harris. And, you know, she had proven during her time in the Senate and during certainly her primary run that she really wasn't up to the task. There was no indication that Americans were really going to have a lot of confidence in her, but she was picked up, put on the ticket anyway. And I think that has just compounded and exacerbated Biden's problems.

You know, the dream president slide that we had up before were for a lot of independents and overwhelmingly for Democrats, the number one dream president is Obama. I don't know if you've heard Ryan talk about this. He's like, you know what they need to do? Kick Kamala off the ticket. Yeah, we get it. You're not going to go away from Joe. Kick Kamala off the ticket and put Barack Obama on there. I don't think it's constitutional, though, because of the, yeah, I don't know. I mean, there is, look, I've talked about this before. There is a case to be made that, which amendment is it? Is it the 22nd Amendment? Whatever established that you can only run for two terms. That might actually be one of

the worst things that's ever happened to, quote unquote, that might actually be one of the worst things that's ever happened to quote unquote American democracy. Because I mean, the American people, I think correctly, elected FDR for terms. There's a good case, you know, that you can make that, what is it? I think Bill Clinton, it's arguably that he would have been reelected to like four separate terms. He might still be president today. He's younger than Joe Biden. He's younger than Biden. Exactly. So this could be like his last term. And I mean, just imagine it would be, look, I'm not saying I'm the biggest Clinton fan, but imagine if Clinton had won the 2000 election and we didn't have George W. Bush in the Oval Office on 9-11. I didn't say it'd be better.

We wouldn't have gone into Iraq. I know that one for sure. Like there's some good cases here where both Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton left office, I think we talked about in our last show. He has 66 percent approval rating. If he ran again, he would blow out whoever was going to run against, especially W. He would wipe the floor with W. And then Obama. I mean, Obama was not that popular. He had a 52, maybe 53. But clearly he look, you could say this one about him. He knew how to get people to vote for him. He probably I mean, I don't know if he would have beat Trump. I'm pretty sure he would have beat Trump.

Okay, I'll tell you this. He definitely was stronger than Hillary. Right, think of how bad a candidate Hillary was, and it was still close. Yeah, so let's think about that. I mean, there's- Incumbent Obama who had a much higher approval rate, yeah, he would have beat Trump. There is a very good case that that amendment actually has caused us to have much more raucous like swing elections when in reality, having extremely popular people just get elected until they reach their

end, it's worked out fine in the UK. It's not like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair didn't eventually get kicked out of office whenever they suffered at the ballot. I think it's working out. Look at India too. Modi, he seems to be riding high. He gets checked a little bit. He's gonna adjust his politics. There is some strength, I think, in that system. Nothing we're going to change here.

We're going to get to, there was this ballot initiative in North Dakota. Let's actually put that up on the screen, A8. We'll come back to A7, but put A8 up on the screen. Voters had an opportunity to vote in North Dakota to put an age limit on for congressional candidates, and it overwhelmingly passed. What was the age? They said 80? 80. Yeah, it was 80 years old. Yeah. I mean, it's clearly targeted Biden. And look, keep in mind, this is Republicans, but I know it's unconstitutional, but I want this. I'm yearning for this. See, I know this is popular, and I understand why people feel this way.

I just am very opposed to putting restrictions on people, who people can vote for. So same thing with the term limit thing. I actually agree with you. I would get rid of the presidential term limits if people wanted eight terms of Bill Clinton, and we have enough democratic processes in place so people can really evaluate the alternatives, then all right, let's go for it. And I feel the same way about this. Like, yeah, I would rather we have someone other than Joe Biden out there, but that's less a function of putting an age limit in and more a function of the fact that we didn't have democratic

processes in place for people to really have alternatives. So to me, that's the direction. No, that's a good point. And I mean, I agree. I have very complicated feelings about this one. At the very least, what we can say is clearly this is popular, right? Because people are upset about the gerontocracy. And so what we need is to have reforms that are put into place and or actual competition that forces these entrenched political interests that are actually out. And that really seems to be the main problem. I know people always want to do term limits and I understand that impulse, but I do think that there are a lot better ways to actually achieve more democratic outcomes rather than that, that could have a lot of unintended

consequences. Again, at the very, very least, it's very popular right now to have an actual age limit in office. Crystal, you did, though, want to update us on a race in Ohio. And this could be a flashing red light for Republicans. Can you tell us about it? Yeah. Well, first, let's actually put A7. I want to just look at this last word cloud, and then we'll talk about Ohio. So put the last word cloud up on the screen. So they asked what are the main reactions of people hearing about Trump's guilty verdicts? This is among all voters. Number one is happy. Number two is surprised. You've got satisfaction up there, justice. It's funny, you've got surprised, you also have expected, somewhat less than surprised. But I guess it is interesting to me that that was the number one

sentiment. And I don't know if we have the breakdown, the partisan breakdown here, but independence tended to be pretty satisfied with this result. So anyway, make of that what you will. There's clearly a very partisan divide in terms of how these prosecutions are being perceived and how the results are being perceived. But probably the thing I found most interesting about that is that people weren't expecting it. You know, there's just an assumption that Trump is going to get away with everything all the time and that there's not going to be any sort of like actual consequence for anything he does ever. So it was interesting to me that people were like

surprised by that. Is there anything you want to react to that I can go on to Ohio? Okay, so there was a special election in Ohio's sixth congressional district, where I actually used to live. So I know this area kind of well. You guys also are a little bit familiar with this area because this is the district that East Palestine is located in. This very, you know, industrial, post-industrial at this point has experienced massive decline, really post-NAFTA. This is the area getting up close to Youngstown, that part of Ohio. It also happens to be the part of the country that shifted to the right the furthest of anywhere in the country during the Trump years.

So they had this special election for a congressional seat there between an established Republican state senator who raised, I think, $700,000 to run for the seat, and some political newbie who raised basically no money on the Democratic side. And the Republican won, which was very much expected, but it was way closer than people expected. We can put this up on the screen. So the ultimate result here was 54.6% for the Republican, 45.3%. So a nine point margin for the Democrat. That represents a 20 point swing from the last presidential election results. This is a district that Trump won by 29 points. And so if you had had a Democratic candidate in there who had raised some money, who had more of a name, there's actually a chance that they could have won here. Now, again, at the end of the day,

the Republican prevails as the expected result. But we have seen a lot of special elections where you've had significant swings towards the Democrats. Now, let's put this next piece up on the screen. Dave Wasserman was taking a look at this, of what's going on here. And here's an example of one of the counties and what this shift was. Washington County, which is where Marietta is, is now fully reporting. He says Trump won this county 70 to 29 last time around.

The Republican just barely eked out a victory there, 53-47. So that gives you a sense of the shift in some of the key counties in this district. But put the next piece up on the screen because it has a little bit of an explanation of what he thinks was going on here, which is that the turnout was abysmal. So he says, how bad is turnout in the Ohio 6th special? Harrison County is showing fully reported. The Republican is getting about 12% of Trump's 2020 vote total. So in terms of the number of voters, he's getting 12%. Meanwhile, the Democrat is getting 22% of Biden's 2020 vote total.

Hence, the Republican is just plus 28 in a district that, in an area that Trump had won by 53 points in that county last time around. So, Sagar, that's the question is how do you look at this, right? It's yet another massive Democratic overperformance. It also comes right after Trump's conviction. So, oh, maybe that changed some minds or caused some whatever. On the other hand, you have next to no one turning out for this election. So, Democrats were more motivated, more Democrats showed up to vote on the Democratic side. But does that really translate

into a general election? That's really the big question point. But, you know, a lot of Democrats taking a lot of heart in this result. Well, look, it was predictive to the previous election. The special elections were deeply predictive of major Democratic overperformance and Republican underperformance. So Democrats, you have a lot of recency bias. Now, the case against this is, well, it's a special election. Who cares about special elections? Donald Trump is the greatest driver of non-voter behavior that American politics has seen since Ronald Reagan. There are people who both come out of the woodwork to vote against him and people who come out to vote for him. That is a good case for why this phenomenon of the low propensity voter staying

home, the high propensity voter coming out, leading to democratic overperformance, should probably not apply to Trump. At the same time, Trump has not been on the ballot since 2020. So what the hell do we know? We only have one recent election in modern times to tell us a little bit about it. But at the very least, I'd be worried. I'd be worried because anytime you have high propensity folks who are always willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against you, that's a bad thing. That means things have to align perfectly on election day. Can't have any rain, hope it's not too cold, hope that they really want to come out, make sure they mail in that ballot. Oh wait, are we okay with mail-in ballots? Which one are we doing? So it's like, there's a, there's

a good case here for why those low propensity folks, part of the reason you don't bet the house on them is that maybe the candidate then tells them actually the election was rigged. And then before the Georgia election, you're like, yeah, I'm just not going to vote. And then both Democrats end up winning that race. I mean, the fact that now, and this is pretty consistent, not just in the special election, but with the polling, almost all the polls show when you put in the likely voter screen, meaning we're not just looking at everybody. We're looking at who are the people that always vote, that we know are going to turn up no matter what. When you apply that screen, Democrats now benefit. That is new and different. And that really is a symbol of the evolving coalitions of these two parties. And that was something that always in the past benefited Republicans as they tended to have

these older, college-educated, more affluent, overwhelmingly white voter voting base. And they just are the people that are so reliable. Every single election, you know, you don't have to do anything to get them to the polls. They are going to show up. Increasingly, those folks are in the Democratic Party. So it is just, you know, interesting indication of the way those coalitions have shifted. And it's an open question what it's going to mean for the presidential general election, because that advantage shows up massively when you're talking about a small turnout election like a special election as this one was.

It will definitely be somewhat muted in a general election, but it still is an advantage towards the Democrats, you have to say, where that is concerned. Just to go back to this district, it's just a really interesting place to me because it's one of those areas that used to be solidly Democratic not long ago because you had blue collar, a lot of union workers, et cetera. And then as the trade deals that NAFTA in particular that have just devastated this area, in addition to a number of union workers, etc. And then as the trade deals that NAFTA in particular that have just devastated this area, in addition to a number of other factors, the normalizing trade relations with China being another key sort of killer for the region, you've got a massive shift towards Trump. And the other thing that I would point out here is these results once again

indicate, along with a lot of Senate polling, that Biden is a uniquely weak candidate for Democrats. Like there is an appetite to vote for just like the quote unquote generic Democrat. I mean, Dean Phillips really had a point. Like he is sort of the embodiment of the generic Democrat. And I do think if you subbed in someone like that, they would be clearly leading at this point in the race. And that's, again, borne out by we're taking a look at there was just another analysis of how all of the Democratic Senate candidates in swing states, all of them are winning, all of them. Now, again, maybe the polls are out. Maybe that doesn't bear out. We don't know. But there's no doubt they are outperforming Joe Biden in the polls right now. And Democrats

have decided to hamstring themselves with perhaps the weakest possible candidate they could put forward. Yeah, that's a great look. It's always difficult because Dean Phillips obviously didn't perform. But then we also basically had a rigged primary in the process. I don't know. I do believe, like with the generic Democrat thing, and I'm not saying I want this to happen, but I think he would do well. I think Gavin Newsom would win like 54 percent of the vote. I really do.

I think he would win an overwhelming 320-some electoral votes. Yeah. I'm not saying I would be excited about any of these candidates. I would not vote for him and I would not want that to occur. I think America would be a lot worse off. That said, I do think he would win just from a sheer political talent perspective. So maybe that's a precursor of what's to come in 2028. Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast, Hell and Gone, I've learned one thing. No town is too small for murder. I'm Katherine Townsend. I've received hundreds of messages from people across the country begging for help with unsolved murders. I was calling about the murder of my husband.

It's a cold case. They've never found her. And it haunts me to this day. The murderer is still out there. Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line, I dig into a new case, bringing the skills I've learned as a journalist and private investigator to ask the questions no one else is asking. She was still somebody's mother. She was still somebody's daughter. She was still somebody's sister. There's so many questions that we've never gotten any kind of answers for. If you have a case you'd like me to look into, call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145. Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

She was a decorated veteran, a Marine who saved her comrades, a hero. She was stoic, modest, tough, someone who inspired people. Everyone thought they knew her, until they didn't. I remember sitting on her couch and asking her, is this real? Is this real? Is this real? Is this real? I just couldn't wrap my head around what kind of person would do that to another person that was getting treatment, that was, you know, dying. This is a story all about trust and about a woman named Sarah Kavanaugh. I've always been told I'm a really good listener,

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my son and my daughter gonna be proud when they hear my old tapes. Yeah. Now I'm curious, do they like rap along now? Yeah, because I bring him on tour with me and he's getting older now too. So his friends are starting to understand what that type of music is. And they're starting to be like, yo, your dad's like really the GOAT. Like he's a legend.

So he gets it. What does it mean to leave behind a music legacy for your family? It means a lot to me. Just having a good catalog and just being able to make people feel good. Like that's what's really important. And that's what stands out is that our music changes people's lives for the better. So the fact that my kids get to benefit off of that, I'm really happy or my family in general. Let's talk about the music that moves us to hear this and more on how music and culture collide. Listen to We Need to Talk from the Black

Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is your girl, T.S. Madison, and I'm coming to you loud, live, and in color from the Outlaws Podcast. Let me tell you something. I broke the internet with a 22-inch weave. 22 inches. My superpower? I've got the voice.

My kryptonite? It don't exist. Get a job. My podcast? The one they never saw coming. Each week, I sit down with the culture creators and scroll stoppers. Tina knows. Lil Nas X.

Will we ever see a dating show for the love of Lil Nas X? Let's do a show with all my exes. X marks the spot. No, here it is. My next ex. That's actually cute, though. Laverne Cox. I have a core group of girlfriends that, like, they taught me how to love.

And Chapel Rome. I was dropped in 2020, working the drive-thru, and here we are now. We turned side-eye into sermons, pain into punchline, and grief, we turned those into galaxies. Listen, make sure you tell Beyonce, I'm going right on the phone right now and call her. Listen to Outlaws with T.S. Madison on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts, honey. Every ounce of polling that we have basically tells us that Kamala Harris is in many ways more unpopular than Joe Biden. And also is that her prominence at the top of the ticket by knowing that, at the bottom of the ticket, I mean, knowing that Joe Biden is so old and then zeroing in on her as a potential commander in chief. Basically, this phenomenon has not been, like a VP has not been

under this much scrutiny since Sarah Palin under John McCain. And then prior to that, George H.W. Bush under Ronald Reagan. So we have videos, you know, continuing to come out. Let's put these up there on the screen. This reference, by the way, you know, all the viral memes. I mean, this clip has been literally everywhere. You see Biden, I mean, almost just like frozen completely while everybody is laughing. In a stupor, effectively.

Effectively a stupor. Stupor is the best way to put it. Everyone else is ambulatory. Everyone else is like moving around him, able to move their limbs. He's literally stuck. There's a lot of memes out there, which I don't condone, but they say when the edible hits. And then you have somebody, Tyler Perry, I think that's who it is, next to him, like wake him up out of the stupor. And he's finally able to move one of his limbs and react to some of the things that are going on. It just shows his age. And then we look at the polling. So let's go and put this up there on the screen. So what do we find? Joe Biden and Kamala Harris remain unpopular. But Kamala's favorability rating is actually less than Joe Biden.

Her unfavorable is slightly less than Joe Biden, but it's still not particularly good. Go to the next part, please, because this is where we can actually start to get into it. Most registered voters do not think that she would win a presidential election. Now, in your opinion, how likely is it that Kamala would win an election for president if she were the Democratic nominee? Likely is only 34%. Almost a super majority, some 57% say it's unlikely. Amongst Democrats, some 60% say it's possible.

But the independent number is 62% say no way and 81% no way for Republicans. I mean, she really does have a deep both unpopularity and then almost more importantly, Crystal, it's that people intuit that other people don't like her and thus they don't think that she can win. Which is equally important for, you know, for people who would eventually support a candidate. There's a like a phenomenon where people want to back the winning horse. Yeah, well, there's also a phenomenon. I mean, at this point, just looking at the how closely tied her favorability rating is with Joe Biden's, I mean, they're basically the same in terms of their net lack of favorability. You also have this dynamic where at the beginning of Biden's term, they were putting her out for a lot of interviews, and it was disastrous.

I mean, it was like every interview she did, she screwed up. And so it was not good for her. So since then, they really, she hasn't been front and center very much. And so I really think at this point, it's less a judgment of her individually. Yeah, people don't have any confidence in her, and they haven't been given any reason to have any confidence in her. But I honestly think it's just tied into feelings about the lack of confidence in the Biden administration as a whole. And they don't seem to be making a lot of separate judgments about, yeah, but if Kamala was in there, then things would be better. If Kamala was in there, things would be worse. It's just like everybody involved with this is not doing a great job and I don't have any confidence in any of them. Yeah, no, I think that's fair.

Let's go to the next part, please. B4, please. And just take a look at this. Nearly three quarters of Democrats do appear to like Kamala Harris. And this is actually probably the biggest problem, Crystal, that they face is that she has the same Biden phenomenon that he had under Obama, where they're like, well, Obama trusts him and I like Obama. So I'm going to transfer my quote unquote likability over to the vice president. Remember, a lot of Democrats still like Biden. They don't necessarily think he should run again, but they like him. Yeah. And so they're like Kamala. She served him loyally.

OK, so in a primary, look, I think in an open primary, I don't think that she could win. But she has such a powerful edge whenever it comes to the Democratic media elites. And also, you know, a lot of the traditional Biden coalition, older voters and older black voters specifically, who even though they didn't back her in the primary previously. In fact, she literally dropped out before Iowa. This time around, her service to Biden could be rewarded. That's a real issue when you have the Democrats so misaligned with the rest of the country. Yeah, no, I think that's right.

And you're right in an open primary. Listen, she's the vice president. She's going to come in as the favorite. Yeah. And polling of theoretical, you know, before it was totally 100% clear it was going to be Joe Biden and no one was coming in to, you know, in the establishment of the party to run against him and all of those things. They would do those trial matchups. And Kamala was always kind of near the top of the list or at the top of the list in terms of where people are putting their votes. Now, given that she's the vice president,

it was no commanding lead to be by like a few points and Gavin Newsom nipping at her heels or whatever. But there's no doubt, just given her position and the prominence she's been given, that if you did have an open primary process, she would come in as the favorite. I agree with you that I think once under scrutiny, as we've seen before, I think people would assess that perhaps she would not be

their favorite candidate or the strongest candidate and look in other directions. But she's been given a huge leg up in terms of being the future of the Democratic Party. And anyone who actually cares about the Democratic Party should find that to be a total disaster. Yeah, I think that's it. And so when we compare this to all of the problems that Biden has, this is where her deep unpopularity will just continue, I think, to haunt him. And if he loses, this is going to be a huge, huge reason why, is that they didn't have trust in the number two. And then also, if he does get reelected, the amount of scrutiny that's going to go up. I mean, we're a single health event from this lady becoming literally president of the

United States, which is terrifying. Well, if you go back to that dream president word cloud. Yeah, she's not up there. Not even Democrats would put her up there. Do you see her in there at all? I see Elizabeth Warren and Gretchen. I see Pete. I see Jon Stewart. I see, yeah, Gretchen Whitmer. Keanu Reeves, I believe, is there. Hey, I would vote for Keanu Reeves. Keanu Reeves is shit. Jimmy Carter is in there. Jimmy Carter's on his actual deathbed. Literally.

Hakeem Jeffries? Oh, my. I do not. This is a problem. I, she may be, if, there's like a Where's Waldo thing going on, I'm looking for her. I don't see her anywhere.

I see Martin Luther King. I see, yeah, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg, Hakeem Jeffries, Jimmy Carter. Oh, man. I see Zelensky apparently more popular there than Kamala Harris. Well, that's good evidence. Only proves exactly what we're saying. That's incredible. That's actually incredible just noticing that. Yep. So there you go. That tells you everything about how even

Democrats, the level of confidence even they have in Kamala Harris, not in any of their dreams, apparently. Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast hell and gone, I've learned one thing. No town is too small for murder. I'm Catherine Townsend. I've received hundreds of messages from people across the country begging for help with unsolved murders. I was calling about the murder of my husband. It's a cold case. They've never found her and it haunts me to this day. The murderer is still out there. Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line, I dig into a new case, bringing the skills I've learned as a journalist and private investigator to ask the questions no one else is asking.

Police really didn't care to even try. She was still somebody's mother. She was still somebody's daughter. She was still somebody's sister. There's so many questions that we've never gotten any kind of answers for. If you have a case you'd like me to look into, call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145. Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. She was a decorated veteran, a Marine who saved her comrades, a hero. She was stoic, modest, tough, someone who inspired people. Everyone thought they knew her, until they didn't. I remember sitting on her couch and asking her, is this real? Is this real? Is this real? Is this real? I just couldn't wrap my head around what kind of person would do that to another person that was getting treatment, that was, you know, dying.

This is a story all about trust and about a woman named Sarah Kavanaugh. I've always been told I'm a really good listener, right? And I maximized that while I was lying. Listen to Deep Cover The Truth About Sarah on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I think everything that might have dropped in 95 has been labeled the golden years of hip hop. It's Black Music Month and we Need to Talk is tapping in. I'm Nyla Simone, breaking down lyrics, amplifying voices, and digging into the culture that shaped the soundtrack of our lives. My favorite line on there was, my son and my daughter gonna be proud when they hear my old tapes.

Now I'm curious, do they rap along now? Yeah, because I bring him on tour with me, and he's getting older now too. So his friends are starting to understand what that type of music is and they're starting to be like yo your dad's like really the goat like he's a legend so he gets it what does it mean to leave behind a music legacy for your family it means a lot to me just having a good catalog and just being able to make people feel good like that's what's really important and that's what stands out is that our music changes people's lives for the better so the fact that my kids get to benefit off of that i'm really happy or my family in general let's talk about the music that moves us to hear this and more on how music and culture collide

listen to we need to talk from the black effect podcast network on the iheart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast this is your girl tS. Madison, and I'm coming to you loud, live, and in color from the Outlaws podcast. Let me tell you something. I broke the Internet with a 22-inch weave. 22 inches. My superpower? I've got the voice. My kryptonite?

It don't exist. Get a job. My podcast? The one they never saw coming. Each week, I sit down with the culture creators and scroll stoppers. Yes. Get a job. My podcast, the one they never saw coming. Each week, I sit down with the culture creators and scroll stoppers. Tina knows. Lil Nas X.

Will we ever see a dating show for the love of Lil Nas X? Let's do a show with all my exes. X marks the spot. No, here it is. My next ex. That's actually cute, though. Laverne Cox. I have a core group of girlfriends that, like, they taught me how to love. And Chapel Rome.

I was dropped in 2020, working the drive-thru, and here we are now. We turn side-eye into sermons, pain into punchline, and grief, we turn those into galaxies. Listen, make sure you tell Beyonce, I'm going right on the phone right now, and call her. Listen to Outlaws with T.S. Madison on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts, honey. All right, let's move on to the economy. And number one reason why Biden is not doing very well in the election. Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

Something I've been warning about here for months on the show, probably years now, is about the coming bust in commercial real estate. And just because things have hold on for as long as they have does not mean that people are going to escape this. Currently, this is the New York Times reporting just in the island of Manhattan, quote, buyers are snapping up aging and empty office buildings for deep discounts. Bargain hunters are getting deals of up to 70% off on commercial real estate, quote, a sign of pain in the property market that could lead to large losses for banks and investors in major real estate-backed loans. So what they show is that plunging property values, for example, aging buildings, weak tenant demand in places like

San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, here in Washington, D.C., you've got high interest rates on variable loans who are now having to refinance has, quote, left the $2.4 trillion office building sector wobbling. For some real estate investors, that may be a good thing. Several buildings now nationwide have sold for up to as much as 70% off to, quote, opportunistic buyers who are gambling that they will score big profits when prices eventually rebound. And they show, you know, for example, an investment giant, Blackstone, had paid $600 million for a building a decade earlier. It is now two real estate firms snapped up that tower for, quote, less than $ million. So 600 mil to 50 mil. I mean, for a company like

Blackstone, you're writing that off. That's like effectively nothing. Now, I'm not crying for Blackstone, but what that does tell us is that the commercial real estate bubble and specifically all of the loans that are secured behind it were previously thought of as just like cash flowing machines. Like, hey, there's no risk here. People are going to the office. Don't worry about it. And now, even though it's been four years, people have basically been in like a clenched fist mode where they're just hoping things rebound. But eventually they have to refinance because the terms on these loans are not like a normal 30 year mortgage. And so then the high interest rate hits, it's not going down anytime soon, or at least not to back where it is. And they just can't

service the debt on where it is right now. I mean, they say so far this year, 16 office buildings with mortgages that were packaged in commercial real estate bonds were foreclosed on or extinguished, resulting in half a billion in losses for investors nationally. Last year, 26 mortgages that were packaged into bonds were foreclosed on, extinguishing $265 million in losses for investors. So we're already at three quarters of a billion in actual losses, not to mention the fire sales that are happening right now. And there's literally trillions of dollars of bank loans, bonds, and other financial securitization products that are built on top of it. Blackstone, TPG, a bunch of other real estate firms that they are

listing here are all trying to crawl their way out of the hole. But I mean, this is a massive liability on their balance sheet. And I mean, I just don't think it's going to change. I don't see it coming back anytime soon. No, absolutely not. I mean, part of why the shit hasn't hit the fan more aggressively than it has is a lot of banks that hold these loans are just kind of giving forbearance and hoping things turn around because they don't want to have to sell at these fire sale prices and actually recognize those losses. So they're sort of suspending reality, hoping that something changes. But there's no indication that that something is going to change because after the pandemic, it created this massive shift to hybrid work models, completely remote work

models. And there's no indication that that is ever changing. It's been now incorporated into the expectations of white collar office workers. At the same time, you know, some of the companies that bought these buildings at like super low prices, what they're betting on is, I mean, you have to think about it from their perspective.

Like this is Manhattan, right? There's always gonna be demand for Manhattan, surely. And so they're looking at these old office buildings and they're like, okay, well, maybe it's not office space, but there's a massive need for housing in Manhattan. Maybe we just renovate these buildings to be residential apartment buildings. First of all, there's regulatory issues. Not all of the buildings are going to be even eligible for that conversion, but for the ones that are, it's very expensive to be able to do that.

And then if it's an older building, to try to upgrade it to have the level of amenities that someone paying that price would expect can be very close to impossible. So there's a lot of obstacles in the way of converting these buildings from what their prior use was to what a more appropriate use in demand would be now. So that's why this is very difficult and how it's hard to see how this dynamic is going to change. Now, many banks are really diversified and they can afford to take these hits and it's not going to send them, you know, send them under. But there are others that have specialized in these types of loans that are really going to face a reckoning.

So prepare yourself for, you know, a future of more bailout conversations, because I do think that's where we're headed. They say in this New York Times report that one group of analysts is predicting this year and next year are going to be the two worst years on record for office buildings in terms of the amount of floor space that tenants are giving back or vacating across the country. So at a certain point, the economics just don't work. At a certain point, the banks realize like the situation is not getting better. We just have to eat these losses. And that's when we'll really see what this reckoning entails. Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, immediately, really what we see is that there's billions and billions. The banks are just

hoping that they can go past it. We had a fundamental shock to the economy. The question is, can they wait it out? Let's put this up there on the screen. I mean, there's a couple ways that you could slice this. The Fed is currently projecting a one cut this year in rates, but not necessarily to the levels that people are hoping for. The central bank is currently in a range between 5.25 to 5.5 percent. They say that the Fed may reduce rates a little bit this year, but the reduction in the rate is not anywhere close to, you know, what the two or three percent that we previously had seen. The inflation report, I mean, it says effectively flat at 3.3. I talked yesterday about the CPI and some of the issues with that. But

regardless, I mean, really what we're seeing is that these high interest rates are really crushing a huge portion of the economy and increasing and fueling both reduction in consumption, which is their actual goal, is to try and get everybody to reduce the amount of consumption. It's squashing a lot of businesses' ability to expand. There's a lot of stuff going on. But overall, I just think that you can see, you know, banks and commercial property, et cetera, they have luxuries that you and I and other people don't have, Crystal, is that they can get, you know, a trillion dollar bank to just put them into forbearance. If you're, you know, having problems, if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, I have a friend with one. His is about to spike significantly high. He's like, dude,

I'm going to need to sell my house. Like, I don't know what I'm going to do. I cannot afford this mortgage payment. We don't have that luxury and nobody's putting us into forbearance. Yeah, that's right. So they're happy to take that hit. Exactly. Yeah. For you, they're like, screw you. Sell the house. We're going to take it. Or, you know, you can spend 60% of your after-tax income on your mortgage. That is the problem, you know, really with a lot of these high interest rates right now. And it shows you the problem with economic brains. So even though there is, you know, some slight rate cut or whatever coming in the future, it's not going to save you. It probably won't save these banks too, because a lot of the way that they pencil their deals is specifically to work on a 2% or 3%

interest rate where, you know, even if it's 4.5% or 5%, it's still not going to work right now. And obviously, huge impact on housing affordability. These rates have a huge impact. That's why when you look at the charts, I mean, the amount of the average mortgage payment has just skyrocketed in an insane way in just a few years. It's also why, excuse me, when you see the way that people are buying homes, you have increasing numbers that are paying cash only. So if you aren't in a position to just plunk down the full cost of a home, forget it. Because you've got institutional players who are perfectly willing to do that

or already wealthy people are using this as an investment, et cetera. And it makes sense given how high these rates are in comparison to recent history, not in comparison to the long breadth of history, but in comparison to recent history, not in comparison to the long breadth of history, but in comparison to recent history. And given how high housing prices are now, it's just made it wildly unaffordable. So these rate hikes by the Fed have had really mixed impact on the economy. And one of the primary group, I think, that has been hurt are people who were hoping to purchase

homes and now are just completely shut out of that. One thing I will note here is they talk about in that piece about, you know, the rate cuts and what they're going to do. They say officials are going to have just one more inflation reading before their next policy meeting in July. So very unlikely you get a rate cut there. And then guess when the next meeting is. It's in September, just before the election. Well, that's always the joke, right? Have people always cut interest rates before?

I mean, look. Biden is going to be very much cheering for that rate cut, so we'll see. Let's say we have an interest rate cut. The stock market pop, you know, the Dow pops by like 1,000 points or something like that. Here's 2, 5% or whatever increase in the S&P 500. He's going to be touting that. I mean, people will remember. They'll look at their 401k, whoever's lucky enough to have retirement savings. Like, oh, okay, maybe a little different way. So it's possible. It's possible. I don't think that that,

even if that happens and you do see like some sort of a bump, because you've had such an escalation in prices that it's not like its prices are going back down. They're going up more slowly than they were previously going up. So I don't think that, you know, one rate cut is going to be the economic juice that Joe Biden is looking for. Perhaps he should consider having an actual policy agenda with regards to that. Just a, you know, suggestion, friendly suggestion here. But there's no doubt they'll be helping, hoping for that going forward. Absolutely. Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast, Hell and Gone, I've learned one thing.

No town is too small for murder. I'm Katherine Townsend. I've received hundreds of messages from people across the country begging for help with unsolved murders. I was calling about the murder of my husband at the cold case. They've never found her. And it haunts me to this day. The murderer is still out there. Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line, I dig into a new case, bringing the skills I've learned as a journalist and private investigator

to ask the questions no one else is asking. There's so many questions that we've never gotten any kind of answers for. If you have a case you'd like me to look into, call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145. Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. She was a decorated veteran, a Marine who saved her comrades, a hero. She was stoic, modest, tough, someone who inspired people. Everyone thought they knew her until they didn't. I remember sitting on her couch and asking her, is this real? Is this real? Is this real? Is this real?

I just couldn't wrap my head around what kind of person would do that to another person that was getting treatment, that was, you know, dying. This is a story all about trust and about a woman named Sarah Kavanaugh. I've always been told I'm a really good listener, right? And I maximized that while I was lying. Listen to Deep Cover, The Truth About Sarah on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I think everything that might have dropped in 95

has been labeled the golden years of hip-hop. It's Black Music Month, and We Need to Talk is tapping in. I'm Nyla Simone, breaking down lyrics, amplifying voices, and digging into the culture that shaped the soundtrack of our lives. My favorite line on there was, my son and my daughter gonna be proud when they hear my old tapes. Yeah. Now I'm curious, do they, like, rap along now?

Yeah, because I bring him on tour with me, and he's getting older now too so his friends are starting to understand what that type of music is and they're starting to be like yo your dad's like really the GOAT like he's a legend so he gets it. What does it mean to leave behind a music legacy for your

family? It means a lot to me just having a good catalog and just being able to make people feel good like that's what's really important and that's what stands out is that our music changes people's lives for the better so the fact that my kids get to benefit off of that i'm really happy or my family in general let's talk about the music that moves us to hear this and more on how music and culture collide listen to we need to talk from the black effect podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This Pride Month, we are not just celebrating. We're fighting back. I'm George M. Johnson, and my book, All Boys Aren't Blue, was just named the most banned book in America. If the culture wars have taught me anything, it's that pride is protest. And on my podcast, Fighting Words,

we talk to people who use their voices to resist, disrupt, and make our community stronger. This year, we are showing up and showing out. You need people being like, no, you're not going to tell us what to do. This regime is coming down on us. And I don't want to just survive. I want to thrive.

You'll hear from trailblazers like Bob the Drag Queen. To freedom! Angelica Ross. We ready to fight? I'm ready to fight. And Gabrielle Yoon. Hi, George. And storytellers with wisdom to spare.

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, being used to price gouge you in increasingly intelligent ways. So we brought an expert in here to discuss that and also how prices are set in general. David Dayen, executive editor of The American Prospect, joins us. Great to see you, David. Thanks for having me. Nice to have you live in person. Absolutely, Yeah. So you did a special issue focusing on this question of how prices are really set, not the sort of economic fantasy about this. So just talk about the project you're engaged in. Yeah. So, I mean, obviously,

inflation is a huge issue across the board. And what we saw is that over the pandemic period, a few things have come together. We already had pricing power in the hands of fewer and fewer companies. What we added to that is additional technological innovations to isolate a consumer, to target a consumer with surveillance, to know everything about that consumer and have that inform pricing. And then the pandemic inflation enabled companies to engage in a lot more experimentation with regard to pricing. And the result is what we see, which, you know, it goes to why prices have gone up and why corporate profits have stayed high. But it also goes to the sort of perception of unfairness in the economy that I think has as much to do with impressions of an

economic sentiment as anything else. The fact that you have multiple junk fees on every purchase, it seems. The fact that you have surge pricing, so you don't know the price at a particular time of day until you get there and it always is changing and it's not predictable. The fact that everybody wants to get a subscription out of you, they make it very easy to sign up and very hard to leave. All of these things conspire to give people a sense that I'm being ripped off. And actually, they almost don't know the half of it because they're being ripped off in

ways that are even more obscure to the consumer. Talk to us about some of those obscure ways. I brought up on our show the Uber low battery pricing. It's deeply nefarious. But I mean, why wouldn't you do it, right? They're like, hey, you're desperate. You're going to pay it if you want to. What are other areas where you see that in the economy? I mean, I think the important thing to say about that is that your willingness to pay does not equal your ability to pay. Yes. Your ability to pay is how much money do I have? Your willingness to pay is how much do I really need or want this particular product, this good or service? And a good example is actually like the McDonald's app. Do either of you use the

McDonald's app? I do not. Okay. Well, 50 million people do worldwide. I have many friends who are enthusiastic. Yes. Because they give you discounts right now. But I mean, what is the point of getting people onto the McDonald's app, pushing you onto the app? It's to get on your phone. It's to get on your phone and to get your data. And in the piece I did for this, which was about what I call surveillance pricing. So what I did on this surveillance pricing piece is look at all of the various ways that users on the McDonald's app are tracked. And some of it's the first party data that they get from you, which includes your ordering behavior. I know that every Monday at six, you order an Egg McMuffin. So I'm going to charge you maybe, the offer I

give you might not be as good on Monday at six. We got a slide from the company that makes the McDonald's app. And it shows all of these things, ordering behavior, geolocation to various locations of the stores. And one of the things it said was payday. So they're able to figure out from your financial card that is attached to the app, they're able to figure out when you get paid every two weeks. So you can imagine what you can do with that information, right? They know when you're most flush. You feel the most fluffy. He's flush. Hit him with the discount. Hit him with the higher discount than what I would normally give you.

Right. So that's a perfect example. And then this is tied to other things that are also available and accessible from your phone. So whether it's your browser activity, your other apps, your medical data, your travel data, they build this thing that they call an identity graph around you so that they know actually more about your habits and purchases than you do yourself. This is a far cry from like the big receipt you used to get at the grocery store that would have coupons at the bottom that were based on what you just bought. That was the crude version of this. We've gone very, very sophisticated, very high tech, and very much toward the possibility of what is called first degree price discrimination.

That's the economic term. But it's – economists use a much friendlier term of price personalization, personalized price. Isn't that nice? You're so special. You get your own price. I like the term you used here, which I hadn't heard before, which is surveillance pricing, because that really captures it, right? They're spying on you in ways that you may be theoretically consented to, but don't really have an awareness of. They're building this whole profile of you, so they can basically exploit your weaknesses. I mean, that's effectively the idea of it. How would they defend this? Because what they would say is, this is like, you know,

the ads you get served online. Well, we're collecting this information so we can give you a better experience. It's more relevant. We can cater to your interests and needs. How would they describe it? Yeah, they would say it's more relevant. And, you know, at this point, because they're trying to get people into the habit of this They would say we're giving you a discount. What are you worried about? What are you talking about? But the whole reason that we don't see widespread Individualized variable pricing today is that most prices still are pretty public

So if you're in a store and you're charged, you know, $4 and the guy behind you is charged $3, you're going to be pissed off and you're not going to want to shop there again. Right. We have seen even in online pricing, time and again, people get caught. Amazon in the 2000s was doing variable pricing on its DVDs. They got caught. People figured out they could like eliminate their cookies and get a cheaper price. And Amazon said, we'll never do that again. Now, Amazon does a million prices a minute.

I don't believe that they're not actually doing this. But what I think companies have begun to figure out is that you need to match this data collection with customer isolation. So if you're on your app, only you know the offers that you're being given on your app. If you're on your Alexa smart speaker, only you know what you're being told in terms of price on that speaker. There are increasing plays to use smart TVs in this fashion. Walmart is trying to buy Vizio. Now,

why is Walmart a retailer trying to buy a television company, a manufacturer? The reason is that Vizio has a smart TV option, and they can send you, in your home, direct offers through that TV. There are now ways that you can be watching a program and they will throw up a QR code that will allow you to have a direct offer of something in the program. So isolating the consumer is like the killer app here to really personalize pricing. Because if you had transparency, like you said, people would be pissed off and they know that, which is why they're not up front about these practices that they're engaged in. Right. What this is about, and we're really just at the leading edge of this, this is really just emerging, is the beginning of eliminating the public price, eliminating the one single manufacturer's suggested retail price for everything. Everything's going to be contingent, variable, based on your habits, your needs. And it's going to increase surplus for the company because the company will have

an information advantage over you. Is this legal? Well, I mean, that's kind of the million dollar question. Things that are new are often not put into that category just yet. I'll give you a perfect example, and it was another story that we did in this series, which is algorithmic price fixing. So it is illegal if three CEOs go into a room and say, we're all our pricing to an algorithm that collects all the data from everyone in the area and then recommends to us what the perfect price would be relative to everybody else in the market. And they do it in a way that is comprehensive. That is also collusion, but that is not three men in a room. And what the Federal Trade Commission and other federal

agencies have said is that it doesn't matter if it's an algorithm or three people in a room, it's still illegal. But they have to convince the courts of that. There are now active cases where judges have said, well, it's just an algorithm. They're only recommending prices. I don't know if this is completely illegal or not. And so that is, I think, one of the fights. But to answer your question more directly, we have laws against deception. We have laws against unfairness. The FTC has started to look at data brokers that collect data as an unfair practice. And that could be a way to sort of get at this personalization of pricing. It's a question of whether you go after the data collection itself or say that data can't go into

the pricing mechanism. So I think it's really an emerging field, and we'll have to see what happens. I know you talked to Zephyr Teachdown a little bit about recommendations for policy directions, what we should be pushing legislators to put into place in order to protect people, or some of the suggestions that she had. Yeah, you know, they fell along these lines of, are we going to stop the data collection at the point of collection and actually come up with, you know, we don't have a federal privacy law. We have some laws in the states. Zephyr has done some work in New York state around an anti-price gouging law, which is largely around emergencies, but you can see the application of it to various forms of price gouging that aren't contingent on a hurricane, right? Right. But the question-

Your own personal emergency of the day, which these companies could easily learn about and exploit. Exactly, exactly. Yeah, so tell us about, in terms of what the future looks like for this, you said that the fight is about price gouging at the legal level, but obviously technology is outpacing this. And then with large data sets like with AI,

is this only going to accelerate with a lot of these large consumer apps? I'm just thinking about the more we transition to e-commerce, the more likely this is going to occur. Absolutely. I mean, the architecture is in place now to engage in this sort of first-degree, first-order price discrimination. The question is, for policymakers, what are they going to do about it? I think that for many, many years in this country, any question of pricing, any question of inflation has been outsourced to the Federal Reserve. Yes. And this is not something the

Federal Reserve really reaches, right? This whole notion of pricing that's a little bit unmoored from supply and demand. It doesn't mean supply and demand doesn't dictate the general trends of pricing up and down but these little factors You know a perfect example is like the subscription economy So everybody has 20 50 30 subscriptions We did a story on this where it showed that there are now subscription services for you to manage your subscription Yeah, yeah, because it helps me cancel the ones that I don't want to cancel We don't know how to cancel. There was a research study that showed that you ask people, how much do you pay a month in subscriptions?

And the average number was something like $86. And then they tallied up their actual subscriptions and it was $219. I believe that. And so, you know, there's no inflation in that mix. If the price per month is the same, right, as we go along, that's not an inflationary environment. But if they're larding up all these subscriptions, making it harder for you to cancel so that your overall budget for these subscriptions goes up, then that continues to be a problem. And it could be even deceptive if the dark patterns that are being used for you to sign up

and refuse to cancel are in place. So I think that it needs to be more of a whole of government approach. I think the Biden administration is doing some of that. The FTC is getting involved, this Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which capped credit card late fees at $8, for example, they're getting involved.

This whole sort of junk fee fighting, this agenda of fighting junk fees is part of this. And I think that there is a path here to supplement the work that was normally just outsourced to the monetary authority. Got it. David Dan, always so great to have you. We really rely a lot on the work you guys do. You and your team do an incredible job really digging into some of these key issues. So thank you so much. It's great to have you. We really rely a lot on the work you guys do. You and your team do an incredible job really digging into some of these key issues. So thank you so much. It's great to see you.

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