Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 6/3/24: Bibi Invited To Congress By Uniparty, Biden Humiliated On Ceasefire Proposal

Episode Date: June 3, 2024

Krystal and Saagar discuss Bibi invited to Congress by uniparty, Biden humiliated on ceasefire proposal as Netanyahu's government fractures.    To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.com/   Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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early and totally ad-free on iHeart True Crime Plus. So don't wait. Head to Apple Podcasts and subscribe today. and seeker of male validation. I'm also the girl behind Boy Sober, the movement that exploded in 2024. You might hear that term and think it's about celibacy, but to me, Boy Sober is about understanding yourself outside of sex and relationships. It's flexible, it's customizable, and it's a personal process.

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We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that. Let's get to the show. We're going to get to, in a minute, Biden's big speech and this ceasefire proposal that may be his, may be Israel's, may be Hamas's. We'll get to all of that with our guests in a minute. But we have some other major breaking news with regard to Israel and Joe Biden. Let's put this up on the screen. So Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fresh off of likely facing international criminal court arrest warrants, has now officially been invited to deliver an address to Congress.

We can put this up on the screen. All four congressional leaders signed off on this invitation after weeks of delay. The letter just went out. So, Sagar, thanks to Mike Johnson, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries, the true bipartisan uniparty coming together, all of them to invite a man who continues to carpet bomb babies and incinerate children inside of tents where they've been displaced. What is so foolish about this is I do not understand how the Israeli establishment and how the U.S. Congress did not learn its lesson from 2015. That moment, I mean, and you'll definitely know this, Crystal, back during the

Iran deal at that time, the consensus around Israel was probably 10 times more ironclad than it is today. And look, I know what everybody thinks, but that means you really can't imagine what it was like back then. What broke open any ability to even criticize an Israeli prime minister was the flagrant violation of international norms of an Israeli prime minister coming to the United States at the behest of the opposition party to openly speak against the international priority and the foreign policy priority of the president of the United States, who at that time was Barack Obama. That little, little thing cracked open the ability to criticize AIPAC, which mobilized against the Iran deal by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and actually gave

Democrats the ability to back their president, Barack Obama, against the leader Netanyahu. And from that very, very day, the Israeli party or the Israeli government has basically aligned itself fully with the Republican Party, where the Republican Party will always 100% go to bat for Israel. Now, don't get me wrong. It's not like the Democratic Party of today has not been also going along with it. But as you and I know, with the base where they are and the younger voters on top of, enough of, you know, these people don't get enough attention. It's not just the Ilhan Omars of the world. There's a lot, Ro Khanna, I mean, many others. Jamal Bowman.

Jamal Bowman. And he is risking his seat to take that stance. You know, these are not household names, but who are out there being like, listen, I'm not voting for this anymore. That is still extraordinary. Never would have happened. Or even more, Mark, like a Chris Van Hollen. Right, a Chris Van Hollen. Right, a Chris Van Hollen. Again, he's continued to vote for Abe. But the fact that he even talks differently about this. Elizabeth Warren, right? This standard issue Democrat who's close to leadership that will even talk critically of

Israel, speak critically of the Biden administration's approach to Israel. It is different than it was even just a few years ago. I mean, it's just remarkable to me because, again, this goes back to what we were talking about in the Ukraine segment, all the talk about human rights, international law, Putin's a war crime, all of this stuff. Bibi Netanyahu is facing arrest mourns from the ICC for war crimes. The ICJ has just, on the heels of them saying, or after they said this is like plausibly a genocide and we're going to investigate, now they've issued an injunction saying you have to stop this invasion of Rafah. They did not stop the invasion of Rafah. Not only that, Biden himself claimed there was a red line with regard to invasion of Rafah that they completely blew past. And there's a full-on invasion completely humiliating him and once again exposing his total weakness. You have Bibi's own government falling apart, Benny Gantz and Yoav Galant,

who are the other two ministers in the war cabinet. So it's Bibi, Yoav Galant, and Benny Gantz. So those two are basically ready to quit the war cabinet. The country is in chaos with mass protests and huge divisions over what to do going forward, just with regard to the hostages. They, you know, overwhelmingly support the extent and the horror of these wars the society does. But nevertheless, he's on the rocks. You had Chuck Schumer previous to him where he gave a whole big speech. He was like, he needs to go. Calling for a regime change. What happened to that? What happened to that? And now's the moment when you're going to rescue this guy with this huge honor and have him come and address Congress. It's just grotesque. It's honestly just grotesque

for them to do this at this moment. And on top of this, we have additional Biden officials who continue to resign over just unconscionable situations that they are being put in. So this is Alex Smith. He was interviewed over on Democracy Now. He's a former contractor for USAID. He says he was pushed out of USAID, Samantha Power, you know, big humanitarian, etc. I wrote a whole book about genocide. After he made a presentation on maternal and child health impacts of the Israeli war on Gaza, they told him you can either resign or get fired. How dare you write a report about maternal and child health impacts of the war on Gaza? He decided to resign.

Here is what he had to say to Democracy Now. It was told to remove words like Palestine, Palestinians, Israel-Gaza border, and several others. And then there was a column of preferred language. I went along with that. I removed the word Palestine from the organization name UNFPA Palestine because that was objected to. I removed a map that UNOCHA provided that was acknowledged as an accurate map, but that couldn't be included because it showed the borders and the sea borders of Gaza. Also on that Monday, I was told this is a very sensitive issue because an hour before we were having our chat, the ICC request for an indictment came down

from the prosecutor. And so I was told that it's a sensitive issue because of that. I mentioned that I was a legal fellow at the ICC back when I was in law school, that I had worked on specifically starvation as a weapon of war. And that was an area of interest of mine and that I thought it would be useful to talk about international humanitarian law frameworks as they apply to every country, Gaza included. And I think that set off alarm bells. There were many more layers of editing. And then on Tuesday, I was told that the presentation was canceled.

Before I was told, the presentation was deleted from the conference website. Congress member Castro said, so there's famine already occurring there. Samantha Power said, so there's famine already occurring there? Samantha Power said, yes. Castro then asked Power, how many children were at risk of dying in the coming weeks due to famine? She said, in northern Gaza, the rate of malnutrition prior to October 7th was almost zero. It's now one in three, one in three kids. So was she aware of the demand that was made of you to change all the language? I don't know. I don't know who in leadership was told about the presentation. I know that there was a lot of chatter that I wasn't privy to about my presentation and the days leading up to it. But I don't know if

she has seen the presentation slides or my resignation letter. So in addition, we covered last week a State Department official named Stacey Gilbert, who also had resigned. We're getting more details over the specifics of her resignation. I'll put this up on the screen. So she'd sent an email to her colleagues explaining she was leaving because of an official finding by the department she worked in that Israel was not deliberately obstructing the flow of food or other aid into Gaza. According to the Post, she took issue in particular with a former State Department report to Congress on May 10th, noting Israel did not fully cooperate in the first months of the Gaza war, but it had significantly increased

humanitarian access more recently. In fact, after a spike in humanitarian deliveries in late April and early May, they have fallen to near zero in the weeks since. So she's effectively, sorry, blowing the whistle at this point saying this report was a crock. They're just lying in this report. And it's an untenable situation for me as a professional. And that is why she decided to resign. So you have in both instances, officials resigning over the suppression of accurate information about what Israel is doing with regards to Gaza. Yeah, it's important. I mean, really what we're watching is like the disintegration of a lot of the humanitarian people who work

in the Biden administration at the actual bureaucratic level, because these people, I've actually met many of them. I kind of went to school with a lot of these, these types. They really believe in that mission, kind of what we talked previously about with respect to Ukraine. They're probably the most Slava Ukraine people out there. Like this is horrible. This is a legal invasion. They're big, like in international law, respecters, you know, and all of that. And so for them to watch this kind of revert right back to real politic almost in a way, or not even really, but at least in terms of the way the Biden administration justifies the Israeli actions in Gaza, that's a bridge too far for them. I mean, that violates 30 years really of their

understanding of the international system. Samantha Power is probably the best example. Now, let me be clear. I think her ideology is deeply destructive and wrong. But she wrote the entire book to justify a doctrine called Responsibility to Protect, which basically says that the United States, anywhere where humanitarian law, as we understand it, is being violated, should use the force of the U.S. military and of the U.S. empire to work directly to make that happen, regardless of the security realpolitik cost. Now, I deeply, deeply disagree with that. But that ideology, and she herself, is really what rules what I would say is the international relations student and others who kind of came up in that era like I did and ended up working at a place like USAID or for the Biden campaign or anywhere else.

So for them, I mean, I get it because I literally know these people. That's why they can't stomach what's happening right now. The problem with her doctrine is it can be used far too easily and is used far too easily to just engage in interventions wherever the hell the US feels like it and use these liberal humanitarian justifications for just going in and meddling with other people's countries. So again, not because of the humanitarian piece, but because of our own interests as perceived by the elites in this country. Oh, she wrote a book. She got a Pulitzer for this thing. Problem from Hell, America and the Age of Genocide, talking all about why the problem of genocide persists and how America becomes complicit and ignores these problems, et cetera, et cetera. Now, here you are. Here you are, suppressing a report on the

horrors being inflicted on women, mothers, and children in Gaza. So yeah, anyone with like a shred of self-respect, it just, it becomes a bridge too far. It's one thing probably if the reports, okay, they're being massaged as that USAID contractor was talking about, oh, you know, some of the language was changed. I could kind of like live with that. But it gets to a point where it's like, no, now this just doesn't reflect reality. Like you're just lying and it's blatant and it's brazen. Not everyone has completely lost their soul in the way of like Matthew Miller. I don't think John Kirby ever had one. You know, the dude that people outrageously say looks like you, whatever his name is. That is libel. To use their term, that is a blood libel,

all right, against me and against our people. He's not even from the same region of India that my family's come. It's outrageous. All right, we don't all look the same. That's like saying a dude from West Virginia is the same as some guy from Los Angeles, all right? It ain't the same, folks. All right, well, of my own rant. Anyway, the biggest problem with him is that, I mean, they'll just, you see these increasingly preposterous situations and things that they try to defend, which are I mean, it's it's just so brazen that you even have. What's his name? Ed O'Keefe, who's like, how many more charred corpses? at this point because they're just sick of being lied to and propagandized on a daily basis, at least those of them who even have a shred of self-respect and integrity.

So in any case, noteworthy that you continue to have this flood of resignations and also very noteworthy what they have to say about the direct lies and suppression of accurate information coming out of the Gaza Strip. Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running weight loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results. Campers who began the summer in heavy bodies were often unrecognizable when they left. In a society obsessed with being thin, it seemed like a miracle solution. But behind Camp Shane's facade of happy,

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Let me hear it. Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's go ahead and get to this huge news with regard to Joe Biden. So this is a crazy situation. We're going to have Omar on in just a minute to help us make sense of it. So last week, pretty soon after the whole Trump verdict came out,

we get this notice that Biden is going to give a major address on the Middle East and on Israel, Palestine, which was weird because it's like, you know, you probably want to let the Trump news, like this is good for you. You probably want to let that settle, but okay, let's see what you have to say. So he comes out and he announces what he describes as a ceasefire proposal that he makes a big show of saying came from the Israelis. Now, there were a few things that were weird about this. First of all, it sounded very much like actually a proposal that came from Hamas not that long ago that Hamas had agreed to and the Israelis rejected. In addition, in spite of the fact that he claims this came from the Israelis, he also spent a lot of time in the speech trying to persuade the Israelis that they should accept the deal that they purportedly had themselves developed. But then nevertheless goes on to, you know, put the onus on Hamas and say,

you know, this is on you and you're the ones who have to accept this deal. So there's a lot that was strange and confusing going on here. The timing of it was also interesting coming on Friday with the Sabbath starting, knowing that there was going to be no ability for the Israeli government to react for a full day. So that was noteworthy as well. In any case, let's take a listen to a little bit of what Joe Biden had to say, and then we can tell you about the reaction and what the hell is going on here. Take a listen. Now, after intensive diplomacy carried out by my team, my many conversations with leaders of Israel, Qatar, and Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel has now offered, Israel has offered

a comprehensive new proposal. It's a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages. The United States has worked relentlessly to support Israeli security, to get humanitarian supplies into Gaza, to get a ceasefire and a hostage deal to bring this war to an end.

Yesterday, with this new initiative, we've taken an important step in that direction. I want to level with you today as to where we are and what might be possible. But I need your help. Everyone who wants peace now must raise their voices and let the leaders know they should take this deal, work to make it real, make it lasting, and forge a better future out of the tragic terror attack and war. It's time to begin this new stage for the hostages to come home, for Israel to be secure, for the suffering to stop. It's time for this war to end. Time for this war to end. All right, let's put the details of this proposal up on the screen. Some things are left, I think,

intentionally vague, but this is the framework that the White House tweeted out, along with text that said Israel has now offered, again, putting this on Israel, a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all the hostages. Yesterday, this proposal was transmitted to Qatar, to Hamas. Today, I want to lay on its terms with the world. So this is a three-phase deal. It's similar to what has been floated and bandied about for a while. But you've got in phase, a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza, release of some hostages and some remains of hostages. Palestinian civilians can return to their homes in Gaza. That has been a key demand from the Hamas side and a surge in humanitarian

aid. In phase two, which according to Biden, and this is actually critical, phase one would continue with the complete ceasefire until the phase two details could all be worked out. That was previously a major sticking point on the Israeli side. Okay, phase two, permanent end to hostilities, exchange for the release of remaining living hostages, Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza. And in phase three, you have major reconstruction plans, quote unquote, day after final remains of hostages are returned to their families. We have some reaction from all sides to this, again, proposal that supposedly came from the Israelis. Let's put this up on the screen from Bibi Netanyahu, he says,

Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed. The destruction of Hamas's military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before permanent ceasefires put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter, a non-starter. Now, he doesn't definitively say no to this proposal, but the language seems to suggest there was another statement from the Israelis. Let's put this up on the screen. This is a statement from the prime minister's office, again from Bibi. The government of Israel is united in its desire to return the hostages as soon as possible, is working to achieve this goal. The prime minister authorized the negotiating team to present a proposal to that end, which would also enable Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved,

including the destruction of Hamas' military and governing capabilities. The actual proposal put forward by Israel, including the conditional transition from one phase to the next, allows Israel to uphold those principles. So that one is a little more ambiguous in terms of the orientation. Of course, the far right ministers, Ben-Gabir and Smotritz, immediately freaked out. We could put this up on the screen. They told Netanyahu that if this proposal is implemented, they will leave the coalition. They will topple the government if he goes through with this. And, you know, Sagar, I'm interested to get your reaction. Meanwhile, and we'll get to this in a minute, Hamas actually responded positively, said they're interested in engaging with this. So I'm not really sure what's going on here.

I think so. I think the vagueness of what Biden put forward is a key piece here. The critical sticking point between the Israelis and Hamas has always been Hamas wants a complete end to the war, and the Israelis don't, at least not at this point. I mean, we just had an Israeli minister come out and say this is going to go on till the end of the year. Like, we're nowhere close to being finished here. You've had Bibi saying consistently, like, we're nowhere close to done and no indication that he's ready to wrap this war up whatsoever. So there are a lot of things pointing in conflicting directions. I think what happened is that the Israelis did put forward

something that was colorably close to this, at least under duress from Biden and within the war cabinet from Yoav Galant and Benny Gantz. Biden sort of seized on that in what would be a clever maneuver to put pressure on the Israelis if it was combined with any willingness to withhold weapons and actually use any sort of leverage to accomplish this goal. But since that is not being put on the table whatsoever, it's probably just another opportunity for Biden humiliation. Absolutely, I think you're correct. My general read is, like you said, there was some sort of handshake agreement or understanding, which the Israeli government had kind of agreed to in principle. Biden's like, look, we're gonna roll with this. I mean, it's a clever move that

people have done in the past, akin to during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Khrushchev says those two notes. We only respond to the first one, and we just decide that the second one never mattered. Except, very critically in this case, is that all political incentives in that country are against Bibi actually agreeing to this under pressure, and there was no commensurate actual threat like in that situation of ever doing anything. I genuinely don't know really what to make of this because all the reporting currently indicates that the Israeli government did agree at least to some of this in principle, but they don't have any, okay, let's separate a couple of things. There's actual ceasefire deal and there's also a lot of what Biden said. As I understand it, this is the very first time that he's ever said

that the war has to end and not a temporary ceasefire, number one. Number two, and let's not forget about this too, he is saying, at least this is his opinion and presumably that of US intelligence, Hamas has been degraded to the point where there will no longer be an October 7th, aka the actual war outlay from the beginning, the goal of the war has been achieved. And third, what he's really committing to is not, quote unquote, the total destruction of Hamas. He is effectively admitting that US policy right now is that, yeah, Hamas, terrorists have been degraded, but working with these people in some political fashion for the future day after Gaza is basically non-negotiable. Inevitable. Now, all of that, I agree with, actually.

But, you know, do the Israelis accept that condition? Will the American political right accept that condition? Obviously, no. So that's really where a lot of the problem comes right now. Right. So it reminds me of the way that the Biden administration tried to persuade Israel when it came to, so you recall the whole Israel-Iran exchange, Israel attacks an Iranian embassy and kills some of their high-level military commanders. Iran then responds,

and the U.S. tried to persuade Israel, like, we shot down all their stuff that they shot. Take that as a win. Like, declare victory. And that's basically what is being said here, too, is, I mean, the subtext is, your original goal of destroying Hamas. Like, we all know that that is ridiculous, was ridiculous, has always been ridiculous. So just frame what you've done as a win. Just be like, eh, they're degraded, and this many battalions taken out, and this much of the tunnel system, and we promise they can't do another October 7th, whatever. Like, take that as the win and wrap this thing up.

Again, since there's no willingness to actually assert US power in this regard, it's only more words. How much does it mean? Not a whole lot. But to your point, Sagar, about we have gotten confirmation from a number of sources that the Israelis did somewhat agree to some facets of this or some semblance of what Biden put forward. We can put this up on the screen. You had a senior Israeli official say that, quote, the plan presented by Biden is indeed the offer made by the war cabinet. Again, the war cabinet is Bibi Netanyahu, Yoav Galan, and Benny Gantz through the mediators to Hamas. However, there is one main difference between the president's speech and the actual offer made by Israel. Quote, Israel has never agreed that negotiations between stage one and stage two can continue indefinitely.

And during that time, the ceasefire lasts. This might mean Hamas can keep the hostages that were not freed and continue to negotiate forever, thus achieving the end of the war while still holding onto the hostages. The attached quote from the president's speech is what they are referring to. But again, the main point is that they confirm it's an Israeli proposal. This is a key part, though, because, OK, if you recall, in phase one, there is a complete ceasefire and there is an exchange of a significant number of the hostages and the hostage remains. promoting something approximating this were thinking they could do another like temporary ceasefire, sort of like what was done early in the war and get a lot of their hostages back and claim that as a victory and then go back to the war and like tie up the negotiations. Because what they're saying here, this senior Israeli official is, no, no, no, we never agreed

that that phase one would last indefinitely with the ceasefire until we work out phase two. We want to be able to go back to shooting and bombing if we can't work out the details of phase two. So that may have been the thinking is we'll put forward what appears to be a decent faith, like phase three ceasefire, total ceasefire proposal to placate Hamas, whose demand is that this thing ends completely with no intention of really ever going beyond phase one. That's kind of what I read as one possibility into this. As I mentioned before, let's put this up on the screen from the Hamas side. They say they positively view the Gaza ceasefire. I'll read this specific language. Quote, Hamas confirms its readiness to deal

positively in a constructive manner with any proposal that is based on the permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the reconstruction of Gaza, the return of the displaced to their places, along with the fulfillment of a genuine prisoner swap deal if the occupation clearly announces commitment to such deal. So that's the Hamas side of things. We'll see how they react to the specifics in this proposal. But, Sagar, that's kind of where we are. Yeah, I think that's a good place to bring in our guest, Omar Badar. He's standing by. Let's get to it. Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running weight loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results.

Campers who began the summer in heavy bodies were often unrecognizable when they left. In a society obsessed with being thin, it seemed like a miracle solution. But behind Camp Shane's facade of happy, transformed children was a dark underworld of sinister secrets. Kids were being pushed to their physical and emotional limits as the family that owned Shane turned a blind eye. Nothing about that camp was right. It was really actually like a horror movie. In this eight-episode series, we're unpacking and investigating stories of mistreatment and reexamining the culture of fatphobia

that enabled a flawed system to continue for so long. You can listen to all episodes of Camp Shame one week early and totally ad-free on iHeart True Crime Plus. So don't wait. Head to Apple Podcasts and subscribe today. DNA test proves he is not the father. Now I'm taking the inheritance.

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the movement that exploded in 2024. Voiceover is about understanding yourself outside of sex and relationships. It's more than personal. It's political, personal. It's political, it's societal, and at times it's far from what I originally intended it to be. These days, I'm interested in expanding what it means to be voiceover, to make it customizable for anyone who feels the need to explore their relationship to relationships. I'm talking to a lot of people

who will help us think about how we love each other. It's a very, very normal experience to have times where a relationship is prioritizing other parts of that relationship that aren't being naked together. How we love our family. I've spent a lifetime trying to get my mother to love me, but the price is too high. And how we love ourselves. Singleness is not a waiting room. You are actually at the party right now. Let me hear it. Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

All right, guys. Very happy to be joined in studio today by Omar Badar. He is a Palestinian-American political analyst who has been just such a great resource on all of these things. So great to see you, Omar. Thank you so much. Good to see you. Yeah, our pleasure. So just we just went through what Biden said, the ceasefire proposal that is reportedly from the Israelis, but the Israelis aren't so sure that they're in love with this thing at this point. I mean, what did you make of this whole situation? Yeah, look, I think it's worth backing up just to kind of set the context for this a

little bit in talking about what Israel's goals are in this process, right? They have two stated goals. One is the defeat of Hamas militarily, and the second is the forcible retrieval of hostages. And those two declared goals have been a complete and total failure on their part. There's just no question about it. There is a third, not officially declared, but very strongly implied, and it's very visible when you look at the situation on the ground, which is effectively to ethnically cleanse Gaza through this genocidal violence campaign that they are currently carrying out. And that they see as a way to actually achieve one of those goals, the defeat of Hamas, in an indirect way. To use the language of Benjamin Netanyahu himself, he's talking about thinning the population in Gaza down to a minimum and that's how he sees a

path forward where he can present an image of victory when there is no victory otherwise for Israel to be had. So every ceasefire proposal that Israel has put forward has been one that is predicated on Israel getting to have its cake and eat it too. So they want the temporary ceasefire. Hamas releases all the hostages and then the genocidal violence continues so that Israel can still get the victory that they want out of it. Obviously, that's a ridiculous proposition. It's a non-starter. There is no incentive for Hamas to accept it and it's not going to lead to anything positive. This is not anybody who starts from a functioning moral compass cannot go along with a proposal like that. Okay. And then let's get to the ceasefire proposal itself.

What is the incentive here? What are the details and then the incentives? So we set it up, you know, in terms of that. But what are the details that jumped out at you as to whether this is sincere or not and whether it will actually be accepted? Yeah. So in contrast to this Israeli position, the Hamas position is we're willing to give up the hostages, but we need a permanent ceasefire. And there seems to have been an Israeli proposal at some point that has that as a staggered process where you start with a temporary six-week ceasefire,

you do most of the hostage versus prisoner exchanges, and then you potentially transition into a permanent ceasefire that is based on some conditions. In this case, Israel's conditions are still Israeli victory, the defeat of Hamas, the elimination of Hamas rule in Gaza. And I think what Biden did here is he ad-libbed his own little detail, his own spin on the Israeli plan, which is to say this transition from phase one to phase two is one in which the ceasefire will just continue indefinitely so long as there's talking happening. And that is suspicious for both Israel and Hamas, interestingly. From Hamas's perspective,

what they're worried about is that they do give up most of the hostages in phase one. Israel says, okay, the negotiations are not working right back to the genocide, and so there's no incentive for them to say yes to that. From Israel's perspective, what Netanyahu is worried about is that this, and it seems to be the more likely interpretation, is that Biden is trying to coerce Israel into a permanent ceasefire by saying that between phase one and phase two, this is an indefinite ceasefire as long as some kind of talking is happening. And what they're worried about is that you are going to get to phase one. And as long as Hamas is engaging in some kind of conversation, then the ceasefire is effectively permanent. That's where the suspicion comes from on both sides. But from Netanyahu's perspective,

given the fact that when you listen to Biden's speech, it's heavily emphasized on the idea that there is no total Israeli victory, that people in Israel's cabinet are not going to like this proposal. It seems to be shifting in the direction of pressure on the Israeli government to really start letting go of the fantasy that they're going to have some sort of epic victory at the direction of pressure on the Israeli government to really start letting go of the fantasy that they're going to have some sort of epic victory at the end of this. And the most critical part- He was trying to frame what they've done already as, look, you've accomplished your goals. Exactly, exactly. Good job, guys. Yep. And the most critical part of that is that I think this shift in Biden's

approach came after the Israeli military announced just a few days before that, that they anticipate the campaign in Gaza to last at least another eight months. Biden knows this is not going to work for him. The election is coming up well before that. The level of rage and anger that exists domestically within the United States about this genocidal campaign that the US is arming and funding is just, you know, really through the roof. And finally, Biden seems to be understanding that this policy of allowing Israel to behave with impunity, to do whatever it wants, the carte blanche approach that he has given the

Israeli government is going to lead to very, very negative consequences for Biden. And now he's trying to up the pressure a little bit to move things around. Because he's still thinking like, okay, I think I could still rescue the real act if I get this some sort of a ceasefire and some sort of a Saudi normalization deal. And that's what he's really betting on. So when you have them coming out and saying, we're not wrapping this up till 2025, at least he's seeing the writing on the wall of how foolish that is, how unlikely that is to happen. And frankly, the fact that it's obviously all part of a ploy that Netanyahu wants to

get Trump into office so that he can have completely, you know, just loosen the reins entirely for Israel to do whatever it wants. I want to emphasize what you were just saying about this phase one, phase two, because it seems like a detail, but it's really important. This is what we were just talking about before you came in. A senior Israeli official said that the plan presented by Biden is indeed the offer made by the war cabinet. However, there is one main difference. Quote, Israel has never agreed that negotiations between phase one and phase two can continue indefinitely. And during that time, the ceasefire lasts. And that's exactly what you're pointing to here, Omar.

And just to underscore for people again, it seems like what Israel thought is that they could float this proposal that sort of meets some of the demands of Hamas. That way they can get a lot of their hostages back. But then if the negotiations fall apart, oh, we never go to phase two. We just go back to shooting. We just go back to the campaign as it was before. So we can bring this form of a victory to the Israeli public of basically like, you know, continued annihilation and destruction in Gaza Strip. That's exactly right. And the first time Israel presented this proposal without this indefinite ceasefire part between phases one and two, Hamas said no to it. And Israeli press reported that Netanyahu was effectively relieved that Hamas had said no to it because he's very nervous about the prospect of Israel being in a position where they're going

to be coerced into a permanent ceasefire as a result of that. And it's not something, for personal reasons, it's not something that he wants. The second this onslaught ends is immediately the second that there is accountability for Benjamin Netanyahu. And it's, you know, for personal reasons is not something that he wants. The second this onslaught ends is immediately the second that there is accountability for Benjamin Netanyahu. And it's, you know, getting out of office is one thing and potentially worse. This is about completely ruining his legacy. And he's just clinging with his claws, trying to salvage some image of victory, not just for his immediate political position, but for his legacy as well. And that's simply just not going to happen. There is no realistic path forward. And the question is, how many more Palestinian children are going

to be slaughtered in order to feed Netanyahu's fantasy? And at what point is our government going to say enough is enough? So that's the question is then, what is the fallout from this? Is this just going to dissolve like every other ceasefire? I mean, already the Israelis have effectively disavowed it at least somewhat. The Hamas, as you said, is kind of supportive of it, but not really in terms of the talking. And then the U.S. just seems to be on the phone all the time. So what is the likely, you know, one week from now, what do you think is going to happen? Look, I think the only question that can answer that is to say, is Biden going to

find a backbone on this or not? And so far, if the record is indicative of anything, it's that he does not have a backbone on this issue. But now that he has made this public statement, and so far, if the record is indicative of anything, it's that he does not have a backbone on this issue, but now that he has made this public statement, the level of humiliation for the president at this point, if Israel just knocks this proposal off and moves on carrying on doing whatever it wants, it's just deeply embarrassing and it just speaks to something fundamentally rotten

in the relationship between the United States and Israel, frankly, where for literally decades, the official American position has been opposition to the Israeli occupation, opposition to settlements, calling for more Palestinian freedom of movement and statehood and so on. But policy in practice is the exact opposite. It is providing Israel with unlimited military funding, unconditional diplomatic support, using its veto at the UN left and right to shield Israel from accountability. That contradiction is just so obvious and so tragic and so, frankly, embarrassing to the United States across the world. And something's got to give at some point. And this is where we've upped the ante to a maximum. And if Biden folds one more time, I mean, just at this point,

it's difficult to put into words. Help us understand the Israeli domestic political context that the war cabinet is just three people. It's Bibi Netanyahu, it's Yoav Galan, the defense minister, it's Benny Gantz. Benny Gantz and Yoav Galan have both been making noises, issuing ultimatums, making noises about leaving this cabinet. You had apparently Smotrich and Ben-Gavir were not read in on whatever this proposal originally was. They immediately freak out, threaten to leave Bibi's coalition that could potentially topple his government. Or you have other, Yair Lapid,

who says, no, we'll back you up so the government won't fall. What are the political calculations here for Bibi at this point? Because unfortunately, only 4% of Jewish Israelis say that the IDF has gone too far in Gaza. However, there are splits and divides in society,

specifically with regard to the hostages. There's been a huge protest movement that wants the government to be more focused on bringing home the hostages. So how is his political future being determined in this moment? Yeah, I think there's a contrast that both of these things are true. But when he talks about the threat that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir pose to his ministership if they were to quit, that government falls apart, that I think is the one that he's more invested in because at the end of the day, the more pragmatic when, you know, pragmatic in the Israeli context,

I should always preface these things. Yes. On Benny Gant's side, those are competition for Netanyahu. These are not people that Netanyahu can trust who are going to have his back really in the long term. They might have his back long enough to actually get this deal sorted out for the sake of getting some hostages back. But in the long term, they're not really invested in Netanyahu. They see him as an opponent. They want a different change in leadership.

And so Netanyahu has no long term incentive to actually go along with that line. And right now you have the dynamic is set that in a way where Netanyahu is being effectively accused of really straining the relationship between Israel and the United States to a maximum. But again, just when you look at what's happening domestically in the United States is even more disheartening, the way in which Congress lines up wall to wall to effectively back Netanyahu at a time in which Netanyahu is facing all this pressure domestically, even in Israel, of people who want him to make that deal, who's wanted by the ICC, the prosecutor, the warrants are not officially out, but the ICC prosecutor is looking for a warrant for Netanyahu

for the atrocious war crimes he has committed. And for this to be a time in which the U.S. Congress is willing to give Netanyahu some backing, I think is incredibly tragic. And inviting him to come speak to them. Talk a little bit about the Saudi normalization deal that the Biden administration seems to really be, you know, putting a lot of stock in, really putting a lot of sort of political chips on that. You know, not just beyond the Saudi deal in particular, it's the Abraham Accords more broadly are just such an inflated talking point that people just make so much more of them than actually there is to be merited. These are

governments that are already secretly in alliance with Israel. They have a common enemy in Iran. They are on the same team. For the sake of domestic consumption, they're not eager to be on good terms with Israel publicly because they know that's very costly. Even in Saudi Arabia, the polls about what people think of Israel and its onslaught on Palestinians, I mean just significant, very very significant dominant opposition over 90% of people who want to see Saudi Arabia basically completely cut off Israel and isolate Israel as a result. So these governments understand that this is a deeply unpopular move to normalize relations. At the same time they see the incentive

to get closer to the United States, to operate more openly against Iranian interests in the region and so on, so they do want that deal. But talking about it as if it's some kind of peace deal, this magnificent thing, there is no war to begin with. There is no conflict between these governments and Israel. So to even talk about it as some kind of grand peace deal is just completely ridiculous. And it's a talking point that Trump has used.

And it's really unfortunate to see people like President Biden and many Democrats pay lip service to the idea that this is something that is really significant that ought to be replicated and promoted as if it actually means anything at the end of the day. I mean, this gets to a broader question, I think, of, you know, if Trump does get into office and this mess lands in his lap, how do you think it's going to play out for him? So obviously, I agree he will give Netanyahu everybody, everything he wants in the short term, or at the very least, the Israeli government. But one of his grand motivations was creating peace. But behind the scenes, do you think that even after this, that it is possible for the Saudis, the UAE, and the other Gulf regimes to still back some sort of Abraham Accords framework, given the level of pushback they would get in their own countries now at this point. It seems to me that it's blown up the Abraham Accords,

probably for all time. Yeah, it's interesting to see how that all plays out. Saudi Arabia has made very clear that basically any kind of normalization with Israel depends on Palestinians being given statehood. Whether they actually stick to that long term. I mean, right now it's a particularly enraging moment in the region, whether when things die down, that changes or not remains to be seen. But it's funny that there is this contrast between Trump and Biden on a personal level on this issue. Trump on a personal level does not give a crap about Israel. He just really does not care one way or the other. It's all about him. But the incentives for him politically in the Republican Party is to be as pro-Israel as possible. And you see it in all of the rhetoric right now. Everything is directed

at Biden as being insufficiently pro-Israel and how he's going to do more. And if Trump's history shows anything, it shows that indeed to be his calculus that he's put between Jared Kushner and David Friedman and all kinds of pro-Israel extremists that have been put in place, giving Israel whatever it wants, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, kicking out the Palestinian ambassador in the United States, shutting down the American consulate in East Jerusalem.

All of that, I mean, it's very clear that it's most likely what Trump is going to do is in fact make things worse for purely personal interest reasons, even though he does not care about Israel one way or the other. Biden is the exact opposite. Biden has a deep emotional investment in Israel. Yes. But all of his political incentives are saying cut this out. Your base does not want this policy of continuing to support this murderous onslaught.

You know, it's an apartheid regime that is engaged in just absolutely horrific violence against an occupied people and Israel's message to the world is there is no path forward in which Palestinians are free They have to live permanently under siege and occupation and if they don't like it They can leave or if they don't want to leave and they can die That's what Israel is offering and the idea that somebody who pretends to be Concerned about human rights and freedom and democracy and all of that can sit here and back a government whose stated policy is this. It's just absolutely outrageous. I mean, it's difficult to find the words to describe how ugly and distasteful and outrageous that kind of position is. The last thing I was curious to get from you, Omar, is we covered this somewhat

mysterious shooting incident between Egyptian soldiers on the border and the IDF. One Egyptian soldier was killed. Neither government wants to talk about it. What did you make of that, the significance of it? What did you read into that? Yeah, I don't think politically it's very significant. Obviously, anytime you've got two armies shooting at each other, that is significant as an individual incident. But the Israeli government and the Egyptian government are very, very close. I mean, the only real point of contention between them is whether Israel wants to ethnically cleanse Palestinians in Gaza. And Egypt has made clear, absolutely, they will not accept a flood of Palestinians crossing the border into their country. That is the real point of tension.

But beyond that, they have every interest in maintaining a positive relationship between the two countries. And I think the Egyptians are trying to put more pressure on the United States to put an end to the onslaught in Gaza in order to reduce the likelihood that there is going to be a forcible transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza. But beyond that, those are governments that are effectively on the same team. The human rights violations of the Egyptian government are absolutely unspeakable. Both of them are huge recipients of U.S. military funding. So in the sense, because they are on the same team in the broad scheme of things, I think they're both interested in playing

the significance of this down and not really making anything out of it. It may have been just individuals on the border who decided to shoot at each other and things got out of hand for a little bit and everybody's eager to just move on from that. Got it. Well, Omar, really great to have you,

to have your analysis here. It's been very helpful for me. So thank you very much. We appreciate you joining us. Yeah, thanks so much. Really appreciate being with you. Yep, your analysis here. It's been very helpful for me. So thank you very much. Thank you. Yeah, thanks a lot. Really appreciate being with you. Yep. And we'll see you guys later.

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