Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 7/12/22: Biden Polling, Senate Election Updates, 2022 House Map, Hunter Biden, Energy Crisis, Sri Lanka, & More!

Episode Date: July 12, 2022

Krystal and Saagar take a deep look at polling data on Biden, various midterm elections across the country in the Senate. GOP House takeover coming, Hunter Biden leak, & global political unrest!To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.supercast.com/To listen to Breaking Points as a podcast, check them out on Apple and SpotifyApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar/id1570045623 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Kbsy61zJSzPxNZZ3PKbXl Merch: https://breaking-points.myshopify.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Indeed we do. Folks, we are getting close to the midterm elections. And so we decided we are going to dive all the way into the polling, the candidates, the Democrats, the Republicans, the House, the Senate. There's also new polling from the New York Times that we teased about a million times yesterday during the show that we were going to dig into as well. So the whole show is going to be election-focused, save for our monologue. Sagar is looking at energy crisis. I'm looking at the crisis in Sri Lanka that is spreading to a lot of other countries in the developing world. But to start with, a couple of announcements. Two announcements. Housekeeping. Number one, live show. Let's put this up there on the screen. So center stage, Atlanta. We are coming September 16th, 7.30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. We've got a great show planned for all of you. We would deeply appreciate it if you bought tickets.

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plan. Exactly. I mean, look, you know, we're obviously in a recession, all of that. So I get it. If you're not able to afford it, if the $10 a month is easier for you, but in the long run, you pay less and now you're going to pay even less if you're upgrading. So there's a link in your premium newsletter at the very, very top, which will help you upgrade. If possible, it would deeply, it would just, we would really appreciate it from a planning perspective. We want to hire more people, as we said. We want to be able to plan the show, the live tours, all of that stuff. So thank you very much to everybody. But let's get to the actual topic. Yes, indeed. All right. So we wanted to start with that New York Times polling, which is deeply, deeply revealing both about Biden, the Democratic Party, Trump, the Republican Party, all kinds of things to get into here.

So let's start with the big picture, how the country is feeling about the president and how Democrats are feeling about President Biden right now. Let's go ahead and put this first part up on the screen. So this is the New York Times headline. They say most Democrats don't want Biden in 2024. New poll shows with the country gripped by a pervasive sense of pessimism, the president is hemorrhaging support. So here are the specifics on those numbers. And this is quite stunning for an incumbent president. His own party, 64% of Democratic voters say they would prefer a new standard bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign. And his approval rating among all voters is just as

abysmal as it could possibly be. Only a 33% job approval rating. When you dig into these numbers, you will not be surprised to learn that voters say the economy is extremely important to them. In fact, 75 percent of voters say the economy is extremely important to them. And yet only one percent of all voters rate economic conditions as excellent. Among those who are working age, only 6% said the economy was either good or excellent. So voters are saying overwhelmingly the economy is their number one issue, that it's extremely important to them, and that they think it is absolutely abysmal. One other piece on, we're going to dig in a moment into the sort of age breakdown here, because the abandonment among young voters is particularly striking, given that this was the demographic that was supposed to set Democrats up

for like permanent dominance within politics. And they are fleeing Joe Biden. Now, that doesn't mean they're going to the Republicans, but they are deeply, deeply dissatisfied with this president and with the direction of the country. But another thing that I thought was really notable within the numbers of the number of Democratic voters saying they want a different candidate, you know, of course, Joe Biden, the reason he got the Democratic nomination overwhelmingly was because of his support among Black voters. You now have more Black voters than not saying they want a different nominee. So 47 percent of black Democratic voters say they would like to see someone other than Joe Biden as compared to 44 percent who say they want Biden right now. Let me just give you one quote from one of those voters and how they're thinking about

this. 44-year-old Clifton Hurd, a maintenance specialist in Alabama, says, quote, anybody could be doing a better job than what they're doing right now. He's an independent. He said he voted for Biden in 2020. But his disillusion over the state of the economy and the spiraling price of gas is now reconsidering Trump. He says, I understand they've got a tough job of Mr. Biden's administration, but he was not prepared to do the job. I also really loved this quote from a 38-year-old. She's a former factory worker in Greensburg, Indiana. She said she's been currently sidelined by a back injury. She says, quote, we used to spend $200 a week just going out to have fun or going and buying extra groceries

if we needed it. Now we can't do that. We are barely able to buy what we need. And I especially love this part. I feel like he hasn't really spoken much about it. He hasn't done what I think he's capable of doing as president to help the American people. As a Democrat, I figured he would really be on our side and put us back on the right track. And I just feel like he is not. I mean, this speaks to something that we try and highlight every single day. People are willing to give you the benefit of the doubt if they feel like you're trying to do something about it. Not even if you are doing something about it, if you're trying to do something about it. And he is just simply not able to live up to that. So the decline of support in young people, which we're going to do an entire thing on, the decline of support amongst black voters.

But also, I think talking about age is important as well. The number one reason that people say that they don't want him to run again if he's, as Democrats, is age. And the crosstabs of that, as if he's, as Democrats, is age. And the crosstabs of that, as you pointed out, Crystal, are really interesting. It's older Democrats who are like, yeah, I think this guy is just too old. And what they point to is, or what you said yesterday, it's like young people who overwhelmingly backed Bernie, who was older than Joe Biden, they don't care as much about age. Yes, they want younger blood and it kind of turns them off, but the sole determination of age is actually amongst people, this kind of makes sense, who know better or who

at least know people or are deeply familiar with what aging looks like. And I did my own monologue on this yesterday. I played an interview with Biden just 10 years ago. You can't tell me that's the same guy. Just not. I mean, command of the facts, stature, even looks better, different, more full in the face, cogent, ability to engage, doesn't shuffle whenever he walks, doesn't stumble over his words. His gaffes were always – they were more like top of the mind saying what shouldn't be said as opposed to, I don't know, misreading the teleprompter or just being genuinely unintelligible when speaking. Yeah, that's right. And I mean, the way I feel about it personally is that it's not his age per se. It's his ideology.

It's his inability to meet the moment and do the job. And that's kind of the numbers that you get from young voters who say their number one issue with him is just his job performance. If he was, you know, 90, but he was doing the job well, I wouldn't care. You know, you could be however old you want if you're able to do the job. The problem is that he seems unable to do the job. So that's the number one issue for young voters. Number two is not progressive enough.

That's a very different landscape from, as you point out, the oldest voters. And I actually hear this and see this commented online and hear it even from my own parents of, I can't imagine at this age being able to do the job of the presidency. Like, I feel my own, I feel what it is to start to slow down. And so to think of him, who is not, you know, certainly at the top of his game, trying to handle this office is hard to watch and hard to imagine how this is working out. You know, I think it is really, really stunning and cannot be said enough how much of a rebuke this is of Biden that his own party, a solid almost two thirds majority, says they want someone else. And yet there was a article yesterday, a CNN reporter who reached out to all the sort of, you know, elected Democrats who are being floated. Gavin Newsom is getting a lot of attention, running ads in Florida and all of this. And people are thinking, oh, maybe he's setting himself up for 2024. J.B. Pritzker, Ro Khanna, they reached out

to all of these folks who've been floated as like like maybe they're going to be the one to primary Biden. And every one of them was like, nope, sitting by, standing by, not going to do it if Biden is in the race. And he's in my view, he's 100 percent running if he's able to. That's the only caveat is like if he literally doesn't make it there. But we're talking about, you know, months before the presidential race really kicks off. We're talking about I think he'll probably announce post-holidays. So we're talking about early in next year. That's right.

So it's very, very soon that it's coming. And, you know, I don't think that he will have a lot of in terms of numerical challengers in the primary. I do think he will face a challenger from the left. Certainly Marianne Williamson has been thinking about it and floating it. And there may be others out there as well who are thinking about it because just as a historical matter, this is an incredibly weak president within his own party. People want another option. The thing I keep saying and keep thinking is Joe Biden was the consensus choice because people were persuaded this was the guy who could win. And he just doesn't have the numbers to

back that up anymore. I mean, when you look at, go ahead and put actually the next graphic up on the screen that has his approval rating or has the right track, wrong track. I mean, you have massive numbers, almost 80% of voters saying that we're headed in the wrong direction. His overall approval rating in this poll is only 33 percent. So it's hard to look at those numbers and be like, oh, yeah, this is the guy who's electable. This is the winner that you really want to put on the field. So it very much undercuts the core argument that he made to the Democratic primary base that got him in the slot to begin with. I completely agree.

I just think it's fascinating, too, that none of the Democrats are even opening the door to it. I mean, at this time in the 1970s, so let's say we're in roughly 1978, well, Ted Kennedy had very much top of mind. He's like, I think I'm going to challenge this guy. He's like, this guy is not doing well. And the lackluster results of the 1978 midterm elections are really what gave Kennedy the confidence to say on top of the Iran-Contra crisis, he said, this guy can't do the job. We'll have to challenge him. We have to try and have a new generation. Now, look, Carter did beat him ultimately in that primary,

but it did certainly wound him going into the general. But the theory of the case, Kennedy was a bad candidate for a variety of reasons. But still, the thinking at the time was like, there's just no way this guy can stand up to Ronald Reagan. They were right. They were right. They were actually totally right. That's actually such a great point because oftentimes the lesson that Democrats learn, and you see this even in the response from, I can't remember which one name checked this specifically, but this is the ethos coming from these Democrats who are saying, no, if Joe's running, like we're out. I mean, Bernie Sanders obviously already took himself out of contention too. If, um, if Joe was running, which I think we all should assume that, that he ultimately is the lesson they normally take is it

was a mistake for Kennedy to primary Carter. Cause that hurt Carter. And that's what leads to him losing to Ronald Reagan. No, that is not what led to the massive like landslide defeat of Jimmy Carter. In fact, the lesson should have been when you had that weak president, you actually should have switched horses. Now, I don't know that Ted Kennedy was the right dude for it, but they actually did need to change

who they were backing to have a prayer of being able to stop that Reagan revolution coming into power, which has reset our politics now for an entire generation, for my entire life. So it's kind of the opposite lesson of what they should have learned. They should look at that and go, you know what? Kennedy was on to something. Carter was extremely weak and we were going to get our butts handed to us and we should have gone

behind another nominee. But that is not the lesson they learn. And listen, I mean, they use the threat of Trump, right? Even though, and we're going to get to this in a little bit, even as these numbers are super dire for Joe Biden in the head-to-head matchup with Trump, he still edges him out. Still beats him. Still beats him. And, you know, his numbers are better than the next most likely person, which is Kamala Harris. Yeah. So they're really kind of stuck. And I keep thinking about, remember when in France Emmanuel Macron wins pretty easily over Marine Le Pen in spite of the fact that I think his approval rating was in like the low to mid 30s as well. Very similar dynamic to Joe Biden.

And Ron Klain, Biden's chief of staff, tweets out, interesting that Macron is able to easily win with this very low approval rating. That's clearly the path that they think they're going to be able to walk, which is, listen, you may be totally miserable under, I mean, you may despise what you may be completely disappointed in disillusion, but you're still going to like us better than that other guy. And that's what they're ultimately betting on. That's their only prayer. Yeah, it is. And like you said, they have data to point to. Macron did win. You know, the poll does show guy. And that's what they're ultimately betting on. That's their only prayer. Yeah, it is. And like you said, they have data to point to. Macron did win. You know, the poll does show him.

And I just, you know, look, it just shows what a messed up country we're in. There's actually a poll literally just came out this morning that relates to what you're saying. Should Trump run for president again? This is Politico Morning Consult 2024. Yes, 35%. No, 61%.

Should Biden run for president again? No, yes, 29%. No, 64%. I mean, that's basically? No, yes, 29%. No, 64%. I mean, that's basically the margin of error. You have two-thirds of the American people on both sides saying, I don't want either. And yet, that is almost certainly to be the outcome. Crazy stuff could happen. I think if you're a Democrat, what you should plan on is a very likely contingency that Donald Trump may also be too old to be able to run.

He also could have a health concern. He's not exactly the best. He may not be able to run in 2024. And if that's the case, I mean, Biden is dead. There's no way he stands up against Ron DeSantis or any generic Republican. I mean, I, I, yeah, today I agree with you. It is a long time between then and now. So I don't want to say like, I think it's too early to make that assumption. But I do think that Trump is the most beatable of the Republicans when it comes to Joe Biden. Let's get let's get into young voters and the Democratic Party. And I think the context here is really important, which is that just a few years ago, Democrats were saying young voters are this rising coalition. It's the most diverse generation, millennials are the most diverse generation in history. They're coming into their own. I mean, the oldest millennials are my age.

They're 40 years old. So you have this large voting bloc growing in power that is overwhelmingly progressive. Gen Z is, by most counts, seems to be even more progressive than millennials. This is our ticket. We're going to have permanent political dominance. I think, what was it, like Carville and somebody who wrote the book that was like, 40 more years and how Democrats are going to be in power forever. Well, that isn't working out. We've covered extensively here, and it's reflected in this poll too, how Latino voters are switching over increasingly to the Republicans. So the idea that you could just bank on them and you don't have to do anything to actually, you know, deliver for their material needs, that's flown out the window.

But they also are facing a massive revolt among young voters, voters under the age of 30 in particular. So let's go ahead and put this first part up on the screen. So as bad as Biden's overall approval rating stands at 33 percent, among the youngest demographic, those under 30, he is at 19 percent approval rating. Sixty nine percent of voters under 30 disapprove. That is 50 points underwater. This individual describes these numbers as apocalyptic. I saw a lot of cope in the comments that were like, ah, these people don't vote anyway. Oh, yeah. Okay. All right. First of all, youth turnout has surged in a number of elections, number one. Number two, again, this was the demographic that you all were counting on, that you all were lionizing,

that you all were saying was the future of politics. And now that they're like, we're not happy with the direction that you're going in, you're suddenly you're like, who cares about you anyway? You don't vote. Go away. You suck. So it is pretty, pretty extraordinary. And by the way, so overall, let's put this next piece up on the screen. So overall, you have 64 percent of Democrats who say we want someone other than Biden. Voters under 30, 94 percent say they would prefer a different presidential nominee. 94 percent of Democratic voters under the age of 30 say they want a different presidential nominee. I mean, can you think of a more stunning rebuke saga? It is just incredible, these numbers. And this, just as a reminder, in the presidential election, in terms of age demographics, this was the group that went the most strongly for Biden, that had the highest numbers for Biden.

At the beginning of his presidency, he had his highest approval ratings among this group. It was in the 60s. Now, 19% approval. Yeah, it's horrific. I mean, your next tweet, you actually did a great job. Let's go and put this up there on the screen, which is that 0% of voters under 30 say the economy is excellent. 1% say it's good.

Guess which might be why Biden's approval rating is just 19%. I often feel like we're taking crazy pills whenever we do our show, just because we see the world so differently than the rest of the people here in Washington. And I think it's because these are overwhelmingly our audience. We understand what people are going through. I mean, personally, I think the reason why the show even works is because we speak to the types of problems and to an ethos and a mindset and a worldview, which is completely underrepresented. And it's exactly shows up here. People were willing to give Biden a chance. I think both of us were whenever he came in office.

I personally thought it'd be much easier for him in order to do his job. I didn't think it would be that difficult. And yet, you know, he's failed at every measure. And younger voters are the ones who disproportionately are going to feel a lot of this. I mean, we're talking about right now, the very basics of growing up, being a young adult in America, your first purchases, like a car right now. Okay, good luck. Seriously. Average car month payment right now is $700, not even counting insurance and all that other stuff. Credit card debt is sky high. Home, not going to happen. Rental markets, actually, one of the problems with the Fed jacking interest rates up is it's squeezing a lot of buyers out of the buying market, which means that renting prices are actually going to go up even higher. So even

though you're a permanent renter, now your rent inflation is up by 20%. Your food is up dramatically. Any of the general quality of life, first vacations, first savings, all of that eroded. Your wage is only up by 2%, the bargaining power you thought that you had in 2021, that's mostly gone as a result of the overall inflation for cost of living. So your life is materially worse. I mean, the American dream was you're going to be better off than your parents. And I mean, that hasn't been the case for probably 15 years now in the United States, but it's especially not the case in 2022. So I don't see how you could have that and not look at what's happening in the country and say, this is just wrong. This is

messed up. Joe Biden is a president. At the end of the day, he may not be responsible for events, but he is responsible for reacting to those events. And he's failed at every turn, I think. The level of contempt that I'm starting to see from the party towards young people is pretty astonishing, too. And compare that to 2008 when Obama wins and you have this, you know, all these young voters, college voters who are organizing for him. They're super excited. And there are all these articles lauding this generation. And, wow, they're so incredible. And this is the Democratic Party future.

And this is the future of the country. And now that they have any critique of the party, it's instantly like, screw you. I mean, the comment that we that we told you about yesterday from Biden's communications director, who was like, well, we're not just trying to please this activist who are out of step with the mainstream, the Democratic Party. I mean, that is aimed directly at the young, youthful protesters who are out on the street, especially with the overturning of Roe versus Wade. And one thing that was also unique about this demographic, we already mentioned that, you know, their issue priorities are different and their critique of this presidency is also different. They're actually not that concerned about his age. They're just concerned with his policy and his job performance. They were the group that was

most likely to say that abortion was their number one issue. In fact, this was the only age group where abortion tied with economic issues in terms of an issue priority. So the failures of the Biden administration to respond in any sort of a timely or forceful manner has really, really soured this group of voters where, you know, this is a key priority and key concern. It makes sense. They're childbearing age. This is like a really active live issue for them in terms of how they're going to be able to live their lives. So it's incredibly logical that that would be a concern. I also want to say this is not just a problem for the Democratic Party. I think the disillusionment of voters under 30, I would say millennials and Gen

Z, this is a real issue for the country. Because when you ask them, who would you vote for? You have 30. So in a hypothetical Biden-Trump general election, who would you vote for? 38% say Biden, which is dramatically lower than what he got last time. 30% say Trump. 7% say someone else. And 22% say we just tap out. We just stay home. If you have that kind of disenchantment with the political system where one in five voters is saying, I don't care about either. I'm out. I'm not going to bother. This is incredibly, this is really damaging to the country as a whole. And of course, we already have a huge pool of non-voters. If you have these young voters from the jump saying, there's nothing in this for me, there's no reason for me to bother

to show up for either of these two buffoons, that's a bad sign. Yeah, I completely agree. I mean, why don't we go ahead and put that up there then on the screen? I mean, I just think it's completely crazy. Whenever we talk about Biden and Trump, with 44 to 41, Biden is still beating him, Crystal, which is why this is the whole case for Biden. I mean, Biden's advisors constantly are retweeting this saying, actually Ron Klain and Jim Messina, who was Obama's campaign director, Dan Pfeiffer, all of the so-called pod save bros, their only highlight out of this was, yeah, country doesn't like Biden, but he's the only guy who beats Trump. I mean, Trump is the ultimate boogeyman for them. It's just constant, which is that as long as he

beats Trump, they don't care about anything else. Is that really enough? I mean, I just don't understand how that can be enough for these people. But as you said, the real issue is going to be electability. And as long as they freeze out any actually electable Democrat within the party, I mean, yeah, he's more electable than Kamala. He's more electable than Pete. So that's really all they have to go on. Yeah. But, you know, compared to like, we're going to talk about the Senate races and the very strong campaign that John Fetterman is running right now. I mean, compared to someone like that, like that would, there's no doubt in my mind, John Fetterman, assuming he overcomes his health challenges as well, would be a much stronger candidate because

he is, I mean, super quick, super like on top of the issues that people care about. Great sort of everyman vibe. I mean, there are other alternatives out there who would be superior to Joe Biden. But first of all, they'd be worried Fetterman's too far left. Remember, that was their every establishment figure back to the other dude in the primary, Conor Lamb, thinking that, oh, this is the way to win. This tells you how stupid they are about what actually appeals to people. And number two, I mean, they're all too afraid to buck the party because they don't want to be blamed for if Trump gets reelected. They

don't want it to all be pinned on them of, oh, you shouldn't have challenged Biden in the primary. You're the reason why he ultimately was defeated, which would be ridiculous. Let's dig down into this thing that you found as well. Let's put this up there on the screen. Nate Cohn over from the New York Times talking about how when he looks at this, he just feels like it's straight out of 2016. People, not just young people, are not happy at all. I mean, 43-40 Joe Biden and Trump is not enough. 17% are undecided, mainly people who affirmatively volunteered, quote, I wouldn't vote for someone else. Or I wouldn't vote or I would vote for someone else,

even though that wasn't even an option, as in they weren't even asked. And 17 people said, yeah, they volunteered up and they said, yeah, I'm not going to vote, period. That's terrible for the political system. I've talked before. I think the major issue right now is that any generic R, as of right now, could beat Joe Biden. But no generic R can really beat Trump in any sort of head-to-head, or not even head-to-head matchup, in an open Republican primary, which very likely seems to be the case. Nikki Haley wants to run. Mike Pompeo wants to run. Tom Cotton, all these other guys, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, obviously. And Trump still maintains, I mean, the latest poll I saw shows Trump at 50% in their GOP field. That's crazy. I mean,

he's got a lock on it. That's even more so than he had in 2016. Yeah, that's right. So you consider it, and I just, I don't, I see a big problem for anybody who wants to try and shake that up, and it almost seems they were certainly doomed. I did see what you highlighted this morning, though, about college voters and Trump.

Yeah. And to say, that was fascinating. Yeah, so this is also, this is the latest piece of the New York Times polling. So this is like the Republican side of the ledger that they just have. I think they just put this out this morning and they did the hypothetical primary matchup. And they've got Trump 49, Ron DeSantis 25, Ted Cruz 7, Mike Pence 6, Haley 6, Mike Pompeo 2, LOL. But what really interested me is that there was a huge education divide

between Trump and DeSantis voters. So DeSantis is doing very well with college educated voters. In fact, according to this poll, he's narrowly actually ahead of Trump among college educated voters. But Trump is still such a dominant figure among non-college educated voters, which has increasingly become the real backbone of the Republican base that that is almost insurmountable to overcome. So among non-college educated voters, Trump beats DeSantis 58-21. Among college educated, DeSantis beats Trump 32-28. It's pretty close. But I thought that was, I was not aware of what a huge education divide there was in terms of these two candidates. So I thought that that was really

interesting. But, you know, to your point, there is the people who are moving away from Trump in the Republican primary, which is still the minority of Republican voters, a lot of them do express concerns over January 6th. That seems to be actually in some ways his biggest vulnerability. It's certainly his biggest vulnerability with the general population in a general election. And so to that end, I do actually think that the January 6th hearings have been damaging to him and he certainly is reacting like they've been more damaging to him than I think people ultimately expected. But within a Republican primary, you're nowhere near a majority of voters who hold that sentiment of concerns over what happened on January 6th. So yeah, that may be his biggest vulnerability. There may be a significant

minority of Republican voters who are done with Trump over that. But he has really won the narrative war within the Republican base on stop the steal and rigged elections and all of that stuff. So it's not like any candidate, DeSantis or anyone else, could really lean into that argument and have any prayer of winning a Republican primary. This is what I try to point to people. Like, sure, half Republican voters would prefer that Trump not run. They want to leave him behind. But guess what? You know, when you're winning 60% of non-college educated voters,

you're going to win the nomination because we've talked about this before. The great proxy for whether you voted for Democrat or Republican is whether you have a four-year college degree or not. If you're a four-year college degree GOP voter, you're in the minority in terms of the people who voted in 2020 and especially amongst people who vote in the primary.

Those people are overwhelmingly more representative in conservative media, in the elite. They have a different affect in the way that they view politics. But 60% versus 21%. And then even the fact that DeSantis, yeah, he's beating Trump amongst people with a bachelor's degree or higher at 32 to 28. He's only— Barely edging him out there.

Yeah, that's basically within the margin of error. So if you're effectively tied in the minority and then you're losing dramatically amongst people who don't have a bachelor's degree, I mean, I just don't see how that could possibly— Yeah. Well, and this kind of goes to what I was thinking in terms of the case for DeSantis is like, oh, he's sort of like highbrow Trump, right? Like Trump without the uncouth this and then the obnoxious behavior and the annoying tweets and whatever. Well, you've got a good chunk of the Republican base. They like it. that. That is the best thing about Trump is how he drives people that you hate crazy. That is very satisfying to watch. So I think I still continue to think the case for Ron DeSantis is very difficult. Now, listen, it's early. Things can change. Wild things happen in American politics all the time, especially when you're dealing with two dudes who, you know, in Biden and Trump who are super old and

super unhealthy. So that's the ultimate wild card of all wild cards in all of this. So we'll see where it goes. But, you know, today and I never see the mainstream press portray it this way. There's always discussion of if Trump's vulnerable in the primary and how's his hands and there's a new poll in New Hampshire and he's doing well here and there. I never see that same level of questioning of Biden's position in the Democratic Party, even though the numbers for him are actually in certain ways worse. They are worse. Because Trump still has that rock solid, super committed level of support. again, among his key base of voters that gave him the nomination, black voters. You now have in the Democratic primary, 47% saying they prefer someone else too. So his standing is severely

eroded and he really is vulnerable to a challenge if the right candidate steps up and does it. And I think can persuade Democrats that the problem is electability, because you are not going to dethrone Joe Biden from the head of the Democratic Party unless you are able to persuade Democratic-based voters that someone else would be the right candidate to take on Trump. But, you know, going back to Nate Cohn's point about how this is 2016 vibes all over again, I think that is really well said. You have two candidates in Biden and Trump that so much of the population is dissatisfied with, disgusted with. They don't want them to be the nominee. They don't want them to be the next

president. And yet that is very likely the scenario that we're facing. And once again, I think that that is a sign of a truly broken political system of a nation in decline, that somehow this system that we've created churns out two candidates that no one is particularly. There are a few people who are excited about Trump, but the broad population is not happy with this set of affairs. And if you had a different system where there was a possibility of third party candidates really gathering steam, I think that this might be a year where that could happen. But we all know how difficult it is just to get on the ballot. It's like insurmountable. I mean, think about that story we covered down in North Carolina with Matthew Ho, who was trying to run as a Green Party candidate. And they just outright fraudulently kicked him off the ballot, lied about, you know, called voters, get them to pull

their names off petitions, lied about who they were. And then the deck at the board of elections was stacked because it's three Democrats and two Republicans. You don't have a third party representative there. You don't get a say in the process. So the deck is, it's just, it's a completely rigged system in terms of any significant third party threat. But if that wasn't the case, this would be a year where you could see that making a significant headway. Yeah, I completely agree. And speaking of bad candidates and what exactly is going on there, it's time. So today is the Breaking Points Midterm Special. We've got a special little graphic for everybody. Throw that up there on the screen, please. This is our version of the Midterms 2022. What do we got? Special coverage, the road to nowhere. Yes. Crystal came up with

that one. I love it. It really does just encompass, look, yeah, we're going somewhere, probably nowhere. I don't think anyone, no matter who they're planning on voting for this year, really imagines that if Democrats keep control, that's going to be a game changer in terms of the direction of the country. Or if Republicans take control, that's really going to solve the problems that we're facing either. So that was the inspiration. All right, let's start with Herschel Walker. Let's put this up there on the screen. Herschel, oh man, I mean, I can't, this guy has scandals every way about him. This is a particularly amazing story. He lied about his secret kids to his own campaign. His campaign aides approached him this winter to discuss the rumors that Walker had a secret child. Walker's aides were shocked whenever

he told them it was completely false. Why? Because they had already obtained the documents in advance that verified that Walker did indeed have a secret child. They handed the documents to him, and after some more back and forth, he finally admitted it was true. And as A's asked if there were any other children that they needed to know about, he insisted that was it. But then they learned about another child that also existed, which of course he said that he had denied. It's just what it shows to me is with Walker. I think it was literally the next day. It was literally the next day.

The next child emerged, too. Yeah, they asked, they're like, hey, what about this undisclosed child who's a 13-year-old? And, again, the campaign went to him. He said it was wrong. And then the very next day, he was like, yeah, actually, the child is mine. Now, listen, you know, what he does is his personal life, whatever. But it's more of the fact that, number one, he's lying to his own campaign. Number two, his campaign is so burned that they're literally leaking about him to the Daily Beast.

What's going on with that? And I just, look, the problem with Herschel Walker is chaos, which is, sure, Trump loves him and he's a fantastic football player. But that doesn't always translate to political success. And Herschel Walker has just really lacked sheer political talent. I mean, he stumbles every which way in the debates, whenever he's on the stage. We have a clip shortly which will show you. But overall, he's a bad candidate because he doesn't lack any sort of actual message whenever he's on the stump. He doesn't have any unifying presence. And poll after poll so far shows him at the very least tied, and in some some cases actually Warnock beating him in a head-to-head. Warnock was seen as a dead man walking. And then he really has been blessed with Herschel Walker as a candidate. Let that not be better evidence than what happened yesterday whenever Herschel Walker was speaking about climate change and green energy. I probably agree with him in terms of the sentiment that he's trying to express, but here's what he has to say. Can you tell what sentiment he's trying to express? No, I honestly can't.

Okay. See if you guys can get it. So all of a sudden, China and India ain't putting nothing in there cleaning that situation up. So all their bad air

is still there. But since we don't control the air, our good air decided to flow over to China's bad air. So when China gets our good air, their bad air got to move. So it moves over to our good air space.

And now we got to clean that back up. I don't even know what he's getting at there. We don't control our good air. China has bad air. Listen, whatever. I mean, I think what he's trying to get at, I'm not even going to try and discuss this. His campaign manager came out with some study. He was like, actually, Chinese pollution does blow it. Listen, dude, I don't think that's what was

getting at here. Well, hold on. I got another one. I looked this one up this morning. I don't want you to think we're cherry picking here. This is just standard, typical day in the life of the Herschel Walker campaign. Another thing he said recently about, apparently he's a creationist. This is what he said about evolution. At one time, science said man came from apes. Did it not? If that's true, why are there still apes? Think about it. Another one. It's like that meme with the guy pointing to his head. Yeah, think about it. I mean, his own campaign told, again, the Daily Beast that he spouts falsehoods like he's breathing. So much so that his own campaign stopped believing him long ago. He's lied so much we don't know what's true.

They said they have zero trust in the candidate and that he and three people interviewed for the article independently called him a pathological liar. And it goes beyond the secret children, which it is hypocritical because he's also throughout his sort of public career. He talks a lot about you got to be a good father and you got to stay and you can't leave the mom with the kids. And especially sort of castigating the black community for leaving all these single moms. So the fact that he himself had to be sued for child support of at least one of these kids is incredibly hypocritical and telling. But he also routinely lied about his bias. He said he graduated from college. He didn't. He said he was like the largest black owned chicken something. And he wasn't like chicken factory owner or something. And he wasn't, I mean, it was just like every single thing he said about his bio

more or less turned out to be a fabrication. So the dishonesty is a big problem. The fact he's not even upfront with his own campaign staff, which means they can't help him through any of this is a problem. And then they're clearly extremely fearful of putting him out in any kind of contentious interview situation, because even when it's softball interviews, he gets extremely tangled up and says things that are like, what are you even talking about? They talk to a local radio host, conservative, local conservative radio host in Georgia, who was like, I wanted to have him on and give him an hour. And they said they did not want him free form for an hour because they're afraid of what's going to come out of his mouth. I was pulling that up. You know, the radio, even in that brief

radio interview that he eventually did, it was a total disaster. He started talking about Cain and Abel whenever it was about gun violence. It went viral because people were like, what are you talking about? Literally what? I mean, whenever you look at what's happening with Herschel Walker, the real issue is that the Georgia GOP is hamstrung because they hate him. They did not want him to be the nominee, period. They had all sorts of others they wanted to run. And look, I don't know how that would have worked out. But the problem is that because Trump so heavily backed him during the campaign, they feel completely hamstrung. And now they're like, listen, we're sticking by him 100%. We have no questions about Herschel Walker. He's our nominee against Warnock.

And the real issue is that right now, what they have is a situation where it should be, again, a complete layup. This is going to be a consistent theme across the next couple of blocks. And yet, because Trump is so heavily behind Herschel Walker, they can't be seen to be crossing him. And every one of his missteps they have to defend behind Herschel Walker, they can't be seen to be crossing him. And every one of his missteps they have to defend, Herschel Walker is not nearly as talented as Donald Trump. And to the extent that he has rifts and all this stuff, it doesn't connect in any broader theme in the way that Trump did at all. So this really is a disaster. I mean right now, all of the polling right now has Warnock within at least two points of Herschel Walker. He's gotten bad press all across the state.

Also, it's not like GOP voters in the state are all that enthused about him. They gave him a shot because Trump said to give him a shot. But he doesn't have his own organic base in the way that, you know, Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger were able to really poll GOP voters and say, hey, listen, we're still with you even if Trump doesn't like us on this or that. So he's got a real issue. Yes. And this is one of a number of Republican Senate nominees who are just incredibly weak candidates. And, you know, usually at the House level, candidate quality, it just doesn't matter that much. It's much more determined by what are the national wins. Unless something really crazy happens with a candidate, it's mostly just how is the president polling in the district? What's the totally different picture. I mean, Republicans are feeling incredibly bullish. They're thinking they got a shot at winning districts that Biden won by double digits. So you contrast that with the fact that in Georgia right now, according to RealClearPolitics average, Walker is down by about two points

on Raphael Warnock. That shows you that him being such a poor candidate, I mean, that's a drag of like 15 points in terms of his performance. Right now, I just looked it up. The latest Biden approval rating in Georgia is 33 percent. 33 percent. This should be a seat, like you said, Raphael Warnock for Democrats should have been dead man walking. And instead, they got a real shot. And so at the House level, overwhelmingly, Republicans are favored to take it and have essentially historic gains. The Senate, all the, you know, whether it's 538 or the other ratings groups, basically have it as a 50-50 toss up. And it is 100 percent because of nominating extraordinarily weak or extraordinarily, you know, candidates who have really fringe and out there views. People like Herschel Walker.

You see this at the gubernatorial level as well. There are a number of Mastriano in Pennsylvania, a perfect example where that should have been a gimme for Republicans as well. And instead, Democrats are somewhat favored there. There are other states in the country that are like that, too. But this is a particularly stunning example where because Trump said this is the guy, this is who Republicans went with. And it, I thought he'd be great. I'll be honest with you. I thought he was good on TV. Honestly, I did too. I'm actually a little surprised by how poor he's been so far. It's still early. My man Oz is just terrible.

So far, Fetterman, despite the fact that recent reporting shows that he can't even properly speak and may never even get that skill back, is destroying him. Whenever it comes to painting him as an outsider, which, you know, to be fair, he has a mansion in New Jersey and he's got a more recent ad, which is slamming Dr. Oz has gone extraordinarily viral, resonating in the state, painting Oz as an outsider who doesn't even belong in Pennsylvania. Let's take a listen. Hey, People Magazine. Welcome to our home. Come on in.

The original owner had gotten it from King George III. Come on down. We hit the vessel, Quirk. Around the corner. People in Pennsylvania tell me they can't go on vacation this summer folks you mentioned are going off to these beautiful uh houses a third second or third house and they've gotten hanging up that's not what's going on with many people in Pennsylvania For those of you who are just listening, it's the whole lifestyle of the rich and famous knockoff. It starts with them actually like, you know, doing this People magazine, welcome to our mansion, showing them around the basketball court.

And then it lists all of the properties that he owns and shows some of them. He owns nine different mansions around the world and the kicker there at the end, they say, number nine, he finally bought a house in Pennsylvania. And what's crazy is, I don't know what the hell Dr. Oz is doing. Put this up there on the screen. He's had no television ads

since he actually won the primary. He's completely dark. Fetterman is destroying him on the airwaves, pointing himself out as an outsider. And Oz doesn't have any affirmative political vision. I mean, he was actually, frankly, he was doing better on the campaign trail, going after David McCormick and really running against Biden. And he hasn't been on the air since May 21st, even though John Fetterman is destroying him day after day after day as a carpetbagger from New Jersey. That's not what the expectation on Oz was whatsoever.

On the one hand, yeah, he's worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He personally has the money in order to do anything that he would need to to go up on the air. But two, he's got a big bank account, a big war chest. His issue right now is that Pennsylvania GOP voters don't trust him after a brutal campaign. To the extent that people went with him, it was really only because Trump really dragged him across the finish line. He should have been up the day after, both targeting the GOP because unfavorables are so high, and two, going after John Fetterman. I mean, it's crazy that John Fetterman is beating him right now, literally from his hospital.

Fetterman has not been on the campaign trail for two months since he suffered a stroke. As I said, reporting indicates it was way more serious than Fetterman ever let on. He finally told everybody the truth after the doctors openly were like, yeah, this wasn't some mild stroke. And the campaign videos that have come out recently show him have lost an extraordinary amount of weight from his own personal health. There's reporting, like I said, that indicate he may never fully retain his ability to speak. And yet, Oz is losing outside the margin of error in the head-to-head polls against Fetterman. It's a disaster what's happening to him.

The latest poll, USA Today, Suffolk has Fetterman up by nine. Yeah, I mean, that's crazy. And what's remarkable, too, is that this shows you how, you know, a lot of times policy doesn't matter whether we would like it to or not. In the gubernatorial race where you have, you know, Shapiro, who is a well-known figure in the state on the Democratic side. He's done a few good things. There's nothing, like, objectionable really about him. And then you have Mastriano, who was like, was there on January. I mean, this guy was intimately involved in the January 6th election insanity. He's completely extreme on abortion. I mean, he has these views that are very much out of step with the mainstream politics.

That race is closer than actually Fetterman and Oz, which is really interesting and a testament, I think, to what a smart campaign John Fetterman is running. Frankly, this is the type of thing that Republicans normally do well, where they're like, you know what? We understand our economic policy in particular is really unpopular,

so we're not going to talk about that. We're going to use cultural touchstones and vibes to show you that we are the ones that get your concerns and we are the ones who are going to use cultural touchstones and vibes to show you that we are the ones that get your concerns and we are the ones who are going to fight for you and that you can relate to. And in this matchup, I mean, this is a perfect matchup ultimately for Fetterman because Fetterman does, he is Pennsylvania through and through, is the mayor of a steel town. He, you know, wears the basketball gym shorts everywhere he goes and it feels very natural. He's got, you know, he's very comfortable in his skin.

He's not one of these Democrats that, like, you know they've never worn jeans and a flannel shirt before they filmed the campaign ad, which is like 90 percent of the candidates Democrats love to run. Republicans do that sometimes, too. But this matchup where Fetterman clearly saw, oh, I know the contrast to make here. I know how to I know how to pull this off. I'm not sure that I would have predicted that this would be as damning and as devastating as it is so far. But it really has been very savvy and very clever. And I think it has hurt Oz a lot, especially as he is completely silent. And he's running, Oz is running this completely cookie cutter, standard Republican talking point line of attack against Fetterman. His most recent tweet was, when the most extreme liberals endorse John Fetterman and tells you everything you need to

know about what kind of senator you'd be. It's all just like, oh, he's left, he's Bernie Sanders, he's a socialist, all just completely cookie cutter talking points that you see in every single Republican race. And people are not impressed. Also, extreme liberals. That's what Kelly Loeffler, remember, this is Kelly Loeffler against Warnock. She would be like, radical socialist Raphael Warnock. Well, how did that work out for you, Kelly? I mean, you know how you run against John Fetterman? Don't talk about him at all. Talk about Joe Biden.

And Biden, Biden, Biden. There's going to be a Biden stooge. Just run against Biden. Run against the National Democrats. That's the easiest thing. You don't even have to tie to them. It's make it into a national referendum and say, hey, if you want somebody to go up and stand up against Joe Biden and lower your gas price, then vote for me. I mean, is that so difficult? I just, I truly don't get it.

Because the problem that Oz has right now is Fetterman is destroying him as the carpetbagger. And he needs to, at the very least, be on the airwaves reminding people that he lives in Pennsylvania now. Listen, I mean, look, there's a long history of carpetbagging. Ask Hillary Clinton and Bobby Kennedy. You think they were from New York? All right, so throw this up there on the screen. Fetterman is running and flying planes over the Jersey Shore to troll Dr. Oz. He's selling bumper stickers that say Dr. Oz. He's selling bumper

stickers that say Dr. Oz for New Jersey. And this is really resonating with a lot of people. And like I said, the issue with Oz is it's not like he has a tremendous amount of support within the GOP base because they don't trust him after the brutal campaign, David McCormick and all of that. And look, even if Trump comes to Pennsylvania and tries to drag him across the finish line for the general election, it's still going to be a very uphill battle. Fetterman is, again, a testament, just like we were talking about with Herschel Walker, where candidate quality doesn't always matter. But when it does, it can matter a lot. It can matter just enough in order to drag you across the finish line. And with the current

campaign, as long as it remains where it is now, and Oz seems totally frozen and inability to really not even define Fetterman, but have a reason to vote for him, which again, I think is extremely easy. Just, you know, vote for me in order to stand up to Joe Biden. I don't see the, I don't see a way where he can pull himself out of this. Now look, it's still early. He could shift strategy. He could do exactly what I'm saying. You know, look, he's still a multi-millionaire celebrity. He didn't get there by no reason. He's very politically talented when he wants to be. I just think that he's very frozen right now and doesn't seem to know what to do whenever he's backed into a corner.

It really does. The Fetterman strategy here really does remind me of what Obama and his team did to Mitt Romney. Yeah, that's right. It really does look like a very similar playbook. I don't know if you guys remember those ads, but they were excellent and they were savage. And I mean, remember the the guy that's like, you know, white working class guy, I think in Ohio, saying that they made him build the stage where the executives then announced that they're all getting fired. And he's like, it was like I was building my own coffin. They went up build the stage where the executives then announced that they're all getting fired. And he's like, it was like I was building my own coffin. They went up on the air early. And that actually goes against a lot of sort of conventional wisdom in politics is you wait till the end and then you dump millions of dollars of ads on the airwaves because that's when voters are finally paying attention.

Well, the Obama team said, no, we are going to define Mitt Romney early before they have a chance to find themselves. And we are going to paint him as this cartoonishly villainous, like Monopoly man character, rapacious capitalist private equity ghoul. And it was very effective. And I mean, he's really never overcome that image of himself that was very carefully crafted by the Obama team. And the reason that it landed and it worked is because there was some there there. And because Mitt Romney is this very awkward character anyway, and he would say weird things, you know, the trees are the right height and all this sort of stuff, where you're like, you're not a real normal human being, are you? And I think that Fetterman is running a very similar playbook of I'm going to go up early. I'm going to define this guy before he has a chance to define himself to Pennsylvania voters. it can be very hard to overcome, especially when you have, in contrast,

Fetterman, who is a sort of great political character and, you know, has this great everyman vibe. I think it's, look, it should have been an extraordinarily winnable race. If he does lose it, it's entirely his fault for doing that, for allowing himself to get defined. I mean, look, we have a long history of electing super rich people to the Senate. I'm not saying it's a good thing, but it's not like Mark Warner and all these other people haven't faced similar attacks. Mark Warner's worth actually probably, I think he's richer than Dr. Oz. So was John Kerry.

But guess what? They all got elected. So it's not like it can't be done. And it's not like they didn't face the attacks just like that. You could very easily parry it with a modicum of political talent. Personally, I thought he would,

it's not that hard to translate from the screen in the modern era, but he's flailing. He clearly is out of his depth. If I had to guess, I don't think he's used to being attacked. I think that a lot of these people are so used to being in the public spotlight. Celebrity. Celebrity kind of. Bubble, yeah. Yeah, I mean, you're just not used to dealing in any sort of substance. He's probably on the back foot for the first time in his entire life. He's super rich, got nine mansions, you know, was a massive celebrity, had a very high Q score in terms of his favorability ratings, took some hits over the years for hawking diet pills and all that stuff. But he's just not used to being in the arena. And I mean, Fetterman, to his credit,

he's an actual politician, came up through that world, ran a great campaign against Conor Lamb and is using the same playbook, even though the guy is literally in the hospital. So it's humiliating for Dr. Oz. He needs to step it up. And for right now, in terms of how he's responded to this, it doesn't look good. At the same time, what are all the caveats? National wins are almost determined.

Things are probably only going to get worse for Joe Biden. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that you should just run against him and Oz could still win this thing. Yeah, some Republican consultant is going to come in and be like, here's how we're going to do things. You just sit back and let us take it. Mitch McConnell is not going to let whatever, he's not going to let Dr. Oz just sink to the bottom so quickly in Pennsylvania. He needs that seat. He needs to keep it. They are going to throw

everything they possibly can into this thing. And so don't count anything out right now. It's early and that's where things stand. Well, because remember, this is one of the few pickup opportunities for Democrats. So if Democrats win this seat, they can afford to lose one of the others that they have and still maintain control. So this is a rare situation in this year for Democrats where they have an opportunity for a pickup. And that would that would very much that would really hurt Republican chances, especially when you have, you know, other other less than amazing candidates in other situations across the country. OK, speaking of less than amazing candidates, I love our all of our transitions today. Let's throw this up there on the screen. Missouri, Trump seems eminently determined to

nominate the worst possible person in the state of Missouri. Vicki Hartzler, who had actually recently been doing pretty well in the polls, she was endorsed by Josh Hawley. She's really been endorsed by the establishment, quote unquote, within Missouri, who view her as the alternative to Eric Greitens, the former governor resigned in disgrace. Obviously, he's been accused by his wife of assaulting her, his child, all this other stuff. Well, Vicki Hartzler recently called Trump for his endorsement, and he put out a truth. He truthed, you can forget about Vicki Hartzler for Senate from the great state of Missouri. She called me this morning asking for my endorsement, much as she has on many other occasions. I was anything but positive in that I don't think she has what it takes to take on the radical left Democrats together with their partner in the discretion of our country,

the fake news media, and of course, the deceptive and foolish rhinos. So my guess would be the reason for coming out against her is that he simply hates the establishment. He knows that Mitch McConnell wants Vicky Hartzler and Josh Hawley and others doesn't want Eric Greitens. And look, Eric Greitens has been favorably received as of recently at Mar-a-Lago. And now there's only two people who are left in the race, Eric Schmidt and Greitens.

And Greitens, frankly, is doing pretty well in the primary. But more importantly, I think for Trump's purposes, Greitens has defined himself entirely on Stop the Steal. Outside of that ridiculous ad that we played here about rhino hunting, he has positioned himself perfectly to get the Trump endorsement. He was on the ground in Arizona filming these insane videos about, we're going to audit the elections. He's been all over Steve Bannon's war room. He's been cultivating the online kind of MAGA base, despite the fact that his wife is like, hey, he's crazy and he literally like beat me and my son. And it doesn't seem to matter for a lot of these folks.

And him positioning himself that way and professing legitimate undying loyalty to Trump in a really sociopathic and transparent way is just very clearly appealing to Trump. And I think he's probably going to endorse him. I just don't see a way that he doesn't, given where the polling is and given the fact that he's willing to rule out Vicky Hartzler, who was the establishment candidate pitched by Mitch McConnell. Greitens very expertly positioned himself in the top by saying, I'm Mitch McConnell's worst nightmare. I'm Mitch McConnell's worst nightmare. That's exactly what Trump wants to do. It's not only that, though. It's also, if you read this article, it is so embarrassing and gross how they try to get Trump's endorsement. So, Greitens has hired Kimberly Guilfoyle as his campaign co-chair. Surprise, surprise, Don Jr. then decides to endorse him.

Right. And you see this on a lot of these campaigns. There's another dude in this race who I think is trailing in fourth place. His name's Billy Long, who hired Kellyanne Conway. Wow. He has paid more than $100,000 in campaign consulting fees to Kellyanne Conway, hoping that she may be the one to get him the end to Trump. And that's how all these people are selling these shirts. I mean, at least Kellyanne has some like campaigning skills and bona fides. Kimberly Guilfoyle, you're literally just, that's literally

just pay to play. I mean, you're just, and this is happening. This is happening in races across the country where it's all about, let me pay the right Trump world figure to be on my side to try to score that Trump endorsement. They also say that Billy Longdude, they say he can be often be found handing out fake $45 bills with Trump's face on them at the U.S. Capitol and has overtly said that the Trump endorsement is his essentially only path to winning the Senate race. the level of shamelessness and groveling and just outright grift and corruption going into this endorsement process is also extraordinarily disgusting. Greitens, you know, we've covered here his, he had to resign from being governor of Missouri in disgrace under pressure from his own party, not only over the fact that he was very credibly

accused of blackmailing his mistress by tying her up naked and taking photographs of her and telling her that if she ever said anything about the affair that he would release them. So that happened. He also was under investigation for campaign finance fraud and corruption. And so he steps down to avoid a fulsome investigation into those allegations of corruption. Now we have the new allegations from his ex-wife, which have been filed in court about alleged domestic violence against her and against their son and also insane psychological manipulation and abuse. But the other thing you should know about this dude is he literally believes nothing.

I mean, he's a total shapeshifter. A close friend of mine who's a Missouri politico, Jeff Smith, who was in the state senate and has lived in Missouri his whole life and actually grew up with Greitens, played soccer with him. They did Boys State together. They went to college in similar places. They taught at the same university. Back in 2008, Greitens was an Obama-stan. Personally drove to the DNC to see his historic nomination. And then the minute that the political winds in Missouri are clearly shifting towards the Republican Party, he changes on the dime. He's a Tea Party dude.

And then the minute the winds shift again in the MAGA direction, well, now he's all in there. So this is someone who cares about nothing, believes nothing, and will do and say whatever it takes that he thinks will serve his own image. What's hilarious to me is I knew Eric Greitens whenever he was a beloved by the neocon billionaires. It was a common story here and there. They're like, oh, we love Eric Greitens down there. They loved him. He sought all of their endorsements and then turns on a dime and then, look, he saw political resurrection

and just debasing himself completely. From what I have heard, he's hated in the SEAL community. He's hated in the special operations community. He was hated by his turncoats in the Tea Party movement and now he's gone all in on MAGA and they're willing to take him because they'll take anybody, really, who spouts enough of this crap. But listen, it could work.

And let's be honest. If he gets the nomination, he's probably going to win. I mean, that's generally how it works. Yeah, so I asked Jeff what he thought. And on the Democratic side, there's a primary as well. We've had Lucas Kunz on this show who is a veteran. He was fantastic talking about Afghanistan and the corruption that he saw on the ground there. He's also, you know, been really thoughtful on China. He worked on anti-monopolies. He's really running

a full-throated populist left campaign in the model of sort of like the progressive populist of the Midwest. And he's up against, of course, Democrats would put up this like beer heiress. And it's a close primary. It's hard to say who's going to come out of that ultimately. But I was asking Jeff what he thought about the Democrats' chances if Greitens ends up as the nominee. Do they have any shot given how far to the right Missouri has gone at this chance? And, you know, he thought there was like a one in five chance. It's still very long odds. Very likely whoever comes out of the Republican primary is going to be the next senator from Missouri. But the only one that, you know, they're trying to nominate the one guy who even has a shot at losing. And right now, I think we have this real clear politics. He's in the average of polls. Greitens is up by two.

The latest polling from Trafalgar has him up by one, so margin of error. The ones before that had him up by six, up by nine. The one before that did have Schmidt up there for a minute. But overall, the averages look like they are in Greitens' favor. And let me tell you, if Trump comes in and endorses, he's going to steal the deal. Yeah, I think you're right. And look, it'll be fun, I guess, to watch. And if he wins, it'll just be a great commentary on the American political system.

Yeah. So the Republicans are doing their damnedest to try to keep the Senate in Democratic control. And I do think that what's happening in the House is another sort of stunning indictment of the poor quality of some of these candidates, because in the House, where it's just the national wins, Republicans are poised to completely clean up. Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen. So here's this is a tweet that says new Biden's anemic approval rating is weakening House Dems map even more than you thought. Dems were on defense in at least 30 districts. Now Republicans are preparing to seriously contest a dozen more.

Many of those districts are Biden plus nine or higher, meaning that Biden won these districts oftentimes by double digits. They go into some of the polling here, which just shows you how bad of a landscape this is for Democrats overall and how in the House where, again, it's much less about the individual candidates and much more about just how do people feel about the state of the country? And the answer is terrible, not good. How bad things look for the Democrats. So they say Biden is down 15 points in a pro-Democrats's polling of a now open Oregon seat that he won by nine points in 2020. He's down 16 points in a New Hampshire district that he had won by nine points.

He's down 17 points in a recent Republican survey of a Minnesota seat that he carried by seven points four years ago. So you're talking about massive, like 30 point shifts towards Republicans that are putting seats into play that in their wildest dreams, they wouldn't have thought would be feasible for them to win in this climate. So it really is starting to be a story of two houses. Now, listen, I think you would still say Republicans are narrowly favored to win the Senate as well. Ultimately, you know, this polling is still early. Things could shake out just based on the national mood. You would still rather be a Republican running for Senate as well. But the House picture is really clear and Democrats are in for a very ugly November. Yeah, I like the way you put it, which is that the House is just much more of a referendum on

the national mood. You know, House races never get the amount of interest that these Senate races are. And they're more dynamic. It's more expensive. Your candidate quality probably matters the most at the Senate level of any of the national elections. So gubernatorial and House, gubernatorial more so like the Senate, but House is just complete wins. And with this, I mean, the fact that they're contesting in Biden plus nine districts, at the same time, I think we should just be careful because what we've been talking about are these wild swings in the Democrat generic ballot, like what we saw after Roe versus Wade. To the extent that the House Dems have any chance, it's in those states trying to run on that,

trying to activate some sort of committed base in order to actually overcome the enthusiasm gap, because that's just where the Republicans are cleaning up, to actually overcome the enthusiasm gap, because that's just where the Republicans are cleaning up, not just on the generic ballot, but their base is ready to come out and vote against Biden. Independents are fed up, disgusted with Biden, disgusted with the lack of action. They have to be able to make some sort of affirmative case the way they were in 2018, suburban women, you know, the people who had showed up in the past who hated Donald Trump, they'd have to try and make the same sort of referendum. But it's just not working for them. And in the Hispanic areas in particular, what they point to, I mean, actually, the New York

Times poll even showed this. Yeah. Effective tie between Hispanics, between Joe Biden and Trump. Imagine that. That's crazy. And if you look at men, it's actually probably higher. Yeah. Even for Trump. I would say that. Which they're able to do. And if they can capitalize on that, we'll talk about Jill Biden later on this week, but her comparing Hispanics to breakfast tacos as unique as breakfast tacos and not being able to pronounce bodega, which is crazy. I mean, have you never been in New York City before? Bogota? Like what is happening? Listen, we could spend all day on that clip, but it's a big problem going into the House. And Pelosi's day—I mean, she already knows her days are numbered. I really don't know how they're going to handle Dem leadership next year because they're going to have to have a real Democratic leader who needs to make a case for why they should be speaker.

I don't know how that's going to work. I'm sure they're going to rig it, but it could be total chaos in terms of the actual election for it. I mean, it seems like she's setting up Hakeem Jeffries as her successor. That seems like everybody's more or less like planning on that. That's the direction that things are going to go in. And I can't see anybody on the left really rocking the boat there. They should. Yeah, they should. Won't hold my breath there. I think some of your warnings, though, are well said in terms of not over-interpre interpreting Biden's low approval in some of these districts. Because keep in mind, part of why Biden's numbers are so low is because of his erosion among the Democratic base.

Those are not people who are going to come in and then vote for a Republican, most likely. Those are people who are incredibly dissatisfied with Biden. But they're still Democrats and they may be exercised over abortion. They may be exercised over any number of issues. You know, actually gun rights and gun control has been another issue that has been in some polls even higher than abortion rights in terms of Democratic base sentiment and what they care about. So the fact that Biden has a super low approval rating in a district doesn't necessarily mean that all of the people who are unhappy with him are flipping to

the Republican Party. So that's a word of caution. But I do still think overall, I mean, this is a really ugly portrait for Americans. You just can't have it be the case, going back to the original polling that we were looking at here, that only 13 percent of the country says we're on the right track and they return the party in power, you know, back into power. I just that's not a universe that is likely to occur. That is an extraordinarily unlikely state of affairs. it is, I think it is a real commentary on some of the extraordinary weakness of the Republican candidates that any of these Senate seats are even in play. And I think the size of the gap at the House level really shows you just, you know, how poorly they're doing by comparison at the Senate level. Because I do think, you know, Republicans are in position to have an

actually historic year in terms of winning seats at the House level if things do not shift. Yeah, agreed. Okay, let's talk about Hunter. Lots been made on this online, so let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. 4chan, graduating in its news importance every day it seems, says that they have appeared to have cracked the iCloud of Hunter Biden. So here's the details. A user on 4chan who was immediately banned but did post screenshots of the website's political forum. This was all happening on Saturday night, which they claim to have been leaks from the Hunter Biden laptop and specific, not just this laptop, specifically his iPhone,

which has led to the release of numerous amounts of videos and others. This is basically combining with a lot of Hunter's personal details, text messages, and others from his father that's coming out. Now, what they show here and what they claim is that a former Secret Service agent who turned cyber forensic expert had apparently located the password to the iPhone backup. And that was during the examination of the hard drive itself, which obviously has been out there for a while. And they say that the examination of the data says that the password protected iPhone backup is likely authentic. And given some of the stuff which has come out, it does appear to be that way. Now, in terms of the specifics, look, I think we've been wrestling with this. It's difficult. Yes, he's the president's son. So to the extent

anything is newsworthy, it's when it involves the president. People are pointing to the way that he talks about his father and the way that he labels it. Anyway, I'm not going to get too much into it, but I have found it disturbing, really, in just the passing around of a lot of his personal videos. Because look, Hunter is a crack addict. And I think that's obvious. And he behaves like a crack addict. And watching some of these videos is deeply, deeply disturbing. The takeaway to me is that when it involves Biden, it is newsworthy. But posting videos of him cavorting with Russian prostitutes is both deeply disturbing and not particularly relevant.

To the extent that it's relevant, it's how did he get away with this in the first place? So let's throw this up there from Glenn. I thought he made an excellent point, which is – or sorry, this is from the Secret Service. They say that they're aware of the iCloud backup. They're not in a position to make public comments on potential investigative claims. Throw the next one up there from Glenn Greenwald because I think that this was important, which is that what he says is that, sorry, apparently we didn't cut that. What Glenn says is that to the extent that any of this is relevant, it is when the Hunter Biden laptop story revealed corruption involving Hunter's business dealings with foreign governments and what did Joe Biden know about it and when.

That's it. To the extent that it's about drugs and his sex life and all that, it should not be relevant to the broader public conversation. And if it is, we should only talk about it in the way that I think you've always pointed to. Hunter got away with this because his dad was a former vice president and he avoided jail time and was able to fund all of this because he was grifting off of the president's name, the current president, then the vice president, and using his business connections and others in order to fund this lifestyle and avoid jail time, which no person who has a similar addiction would have been able to do. And I think that that is a way that we should be able to talk about it with all this because it's very uncomfortable to look at this. At the end of the day, he is a semi-private citizen. It's ultimately profoundly sad.

It is. It's horrible. Yeah, it's ultimately profoundly sad. Yeah, it is. I mean, that's the, honestly, that's the biggest takeaway for me looking at these materials is just how incredibly sad the whole situation is. And, yeah, I would like for everyone who is struggling with addiction to receive the same, like, support and care and second chances as Hunter Biden. That's what I would like to see. And so any Republicans who are out there sharing this stuff around thinking that this is going to be like a really effective political hit, I just don't think so. Because ultimately I think most people have the reaction that I had, which is like you just actually feel bad for this man who is clearly in the throes of numerous addictions and is just really, really in a bad place. So I 100% agree. When it comes to business deals, corrupt shady dealings, anything certainly that intersects with Biden that could impact what his foreign policy is,

any of that stuff, 100% fair game. Should not be off the table at all. Reporters shouldn't be afraid of digging into that stuff. They shouldn't be afraid of reporting on it. Certainly social media companies shouldn't be censoring it, which is what we saw in the run-up to the 2020 election. The personal shit, leave it alone. It's completely irrelevant. Yeah, especially the videos. The videos have nothing to do with Biden. And look, people can circulate whatever they want. I don't believe in censorship. So if you want to share it, fine. Yesterday it was trending at like 400,000 tweets.

Okay, whatever. To the extent that we should share it, fine. Yesterday it was trending at like 400,000 tweets. Okay, whatever. To the extent that we should discuss it, I think it should not be off the table to say, okay, well, what was Biden doing? Was he helping fund this stuff? If so, where was he getting the money? Was he aware that his money was being used by Hunter in order to go about this? But more importantly is how is Hunter funding this on his side in the first place? Was he using his father's connections and others? If there is evidence to that effect, as there was during the Hunter Biden laptop story and Tony Bubulinski and all that and the dealings with Ukraine and Burisma and those payments, there still has yet

to be any real answer around Burisma. Still, whenever it comes to the Chinese Communist Party linked private equity fund, which Hunter retains a 10% stake in and the various investments that were made on his behalf, the hundreds of thousands of dollars that he collected in consulting fees. It's also very clear, bigger than the fact that he's currently under FBI investigation, that he was undoubtedly, almost certainly working as an unregistered foreign agent and taking all this foreign cash specifically also in order to behave in the manner that he was behaving. So that's the way

that we should go down about this and how we should handle this. I also think this is a commentary also on the mainstream media because there's no mainstream media stories about this at all. To the extent that they are, they're like, it's been hacked. People are aware of it. And it's like, look, I agree it can seem uncomfortable and weird in order to discuss somebody who's in the midst of crack addiction and all this. But also there's a trove of information which comb through it and find what is legitimate and what is not. Yeah. So far, though, there hasn't – out of this trove, there has not been anything that has been worthwhile. And that's a story in itself, I think.

I don't know. I mean, I don't see that there's been anything worth them reporting on out of this except that this exists. And the Secret Service, you know, is sort of acknowledging that this is a situation that is unfolding. But absent some other specifics that are relevant to corruption, business dealings, all of those things, there's not really anything to report that I think is actually in the public interest. Yeah, I think that's fair. So let me just put it in that way, which is that they should at least – they're either ignoring it completely, which I think is fine. However, I think that given the level of public interest, they should then come out and just say what we said.

Look, from what we can see so far, having looked through it, there doesn't seem to be anything that lies to the general interest. Secret Service is aware of it. That's all I've really been able to tell outside of fringe kind of conservative websites, which have been running with this stuff. And then obviously it's just all over social media. I think it bears some level of acknowledgement from the press and from others. And the White House posture is also ridiculous. Their current posture on the laptop, not even on the iCloud, is we're not going to comment ever on what's in the laptop. It's like, okay, well, we know that the laptop has emails and others that do concern the current president of the United States.

How can you possibly have that posture towards obviously relevant information? And look, you're going to be hearing about this, whether you like it or not, because if the GOP does take control of the Senate or of the House, there's obviously going to be hearings that are going to be looking into this. So you better get ready, you know, whether you like it or not, and be aware that this is out there and that this is information. So I think that's it. Yeah, indeed. All right, Saga, what are you looking at? Well, we are in the midst of a genuine energy crisis.

I know we are all vaguely aware of it, but the reason that we keep coming back to it is because we're learning in real time how much energy belies the entire economy. When the price goes up, if there's a supply shock or a problem, it affects everything. It leads to genuine misery in the West and causes potential mass death in the developing world. Last week, I warned about how Germany is on the precipice of igniting a global crisis. And sadly, the events of the last 96 hours have likely vindicated that. They show us the perilous next few months that we're going to face. They also show us the culmination of green idiocy in the West, which has shunned nuclear power and has left the world dramatically more vulnerable. Let's start with the immediate crisis in Germany. To recap, Germany is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas. That pipeline has been tapering off for the last few months as Russian

retaliation against Germany for Western sanctions. It culminated in a total shutdown of the pipeline yesterday. Russia claims the pipeline will only be shut down for the next 10 days, but new indications say they may cut it off completely. France's Ministry of Energy, which also relies on Russian gas, said yesterday that the day of the shutdown, the most likely event is a total and complete shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline, effectively freezing Germany off from its major source of power, a move which will skyrocket the global price of natural gas, which powers 40% of power here in the United States just last year, 25% of the world's power last year as well. Furthermore, this leaves the Germans and the rest of Europe extraordinarily

vulnerable. It shows us the holes in any European strategy against Russia. On the one hand, NATO and Biden say that we will endure high gas prices as long as it takes to defeat Putin. And yet, the moment that Germany was faced with a real shutoff as a major consumer power, they immediately got Canada to lift its sanctions on Russia for a key piece of equipment for the pipeline. Russia blamed the slowdown in gas to Europe on the inability to replace its gas turbines. And that new equipment shows that Germany far more values Russian gas than it does the war in Ukraine. So let's think about this. At the same time that they say high gas prices must be endured for as long as it lasts, then they are also lifting sanctions on Russia so they can pay hundreds of billions of euros a year to Russia.

That means that the West is funding the Russian war in Ukraine on both sides of the conflict, guaranteeing it will go on forever. No matter which side of the conflict you are on, you have to admit that doesn't make any goddamn sense. You either cut them off completely or you don't. But in the meantime, beyond exposing the hypocrisy of the Western stance towards the Ukrainian conflict, it also highlights the idiocy of the modern green movement. Three days before the gas pipeline was shut off, the ruling coalition in Germany, which includes the Green Party, won a vote in parliament to back more coal-fired power plants to replace three remaining nuclear plants that they have planned to decommission.

Yes, you heard me correctly. The Green coalition is backing expanding the filthiest source of energy on the planet outside of literally burning trash in favor of ditching high capacity and low carbon dioxide sources of power. If that's not bad enough, the promises of the green movement are not coming true. Wind power, which is supposed to back up the grid and is supposedly super green, isn't working right now in Germany. Why? Because the wind is not blowing. So at the time when they need renewable power the most, it's not working. German power prices doubled in a single day upon the news of the gas shutoff, combined with the lack of wind.

All of this is having an insane effect on German consumers. Germany, the fourth largest economy on Earth, is now dimming streetlights and rationing hot water across the country, along with ceasing air conditioning and encouraging voluntary cuts in power at the household level. Rationing straight up power is next if the gas doesn't turn back on. I don't weep too much for the Germans. This is a problem entirely of their own making. But the bad news, as I always try to reiterate, is that it will undoubtedly spill over into the U.S. economy and spike inflation here at home

and all across the globe. You may have noticed, if you live in the Southwest, we are in the middle of a massive heat wave. 50 million Americans are under heat advisories in the last few days. Texas is already warning about potential rolling blackouts as a result of massive demand for power. Dig a little bit deeper. The details show this part of the reason the Texas grid is so screwed right now. Same as Germany. Low wind generation across Texas in the middle of a heat wave. It's reducing the amount of renewable power available while natural gas and coal are stretched to the max. Don't forget, just avoiding blackout is not a victory. Natural gas is the major source of power for the Texas grid. Right now, prices remain much higher than previous energy crunches. As soon as LNG export facilities in Texas are fixed up and ready to export gas,

prices are expected to double and go higher if that happens in August. Well, newsflash, it's still hot as hell in Texas. People there will be paying astronomical prices for power, even if the lights stay on. This is not just happening in Texas. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation is already warning the U.S. has a, quote, high risk of failure for its power grid this summer as a result of energy disruptions from Europe and increased temperatures across the country. We are being smacked in the face by reality. We are being made substantially poorer as a result of our Russia policy and now more vulnerable. We need to surge reliable nuclear power now. It is obvious, and yet our so-called German allies are doing the opposite

and in turn are spiking prices for us here at home. All of this needs to be a wake-up call. For too long, the modern green movement has captured the political system to push a true program of idiocy, while fossil fuel interests have captured the dissenters to push their own failed scheme. Both are failing on an industrial scale with tremendous consequences for the globe. Can you imagine the fourth largest economy on Earth rationing power? And if you want to hear my reaction to Sagar's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at BreakingPoints.com.

Crystal, what are you taking a look at? Well, guys, we're seeing stunning images over the weekend from the South Asian island nation of Sri Lanka, where enraged protesters stormed the presidential palace and forced that nation's leader to flee. Now, I want to show you some of these images because while today it is protesters demanding the resignation of the Sri Lankan government, this country is far from alone in suffering with high fuel and high food prices. And in Sri Lanka, it was this last one more crisis which led to an absolute breaking point for this nation's people. All right, so you can see here, massive crowd, tens of thousands of protesters gathered outside the presidential palace that is in the capital city of Colombo and ultimately storming through the gates and taking it over completely. All right, now here you can see some of those protesters inside the palace, inside the presidential kitchen there, helping themselves to food and drink. Many of them have probably been hungry for quite a while as food scarcity and prices are a major issue.

Now you've got protesters also making themselves at home, wandering around, putting their feet up, taking selfies, enjoying, you know, the rare experience there in the lab of luxury of the presidential palace. And this, allegedly, is the current president fleeing for his life, boarding a military ship as protesters relax in his palace. So, what happens now? Now, protesters are demanding the resignation of top officials. Looks like they're going to get their way. The prime minister has already tweeted his resignation. President is expected to resign on Wednesday. But the factors that led to this nation being in complete chaos, which life is a daily struggle for survival, are not going away anytime soon. So how did they get to this point? Well, some of the factors are super specific to this nation. The downward spiral actually really started in 2019. There was a major ISIS

attack on three churches and critically on three luxury hotels, which killed 269 people, including scores of foreign nationals. That attack put a massive chill on the country's burgeoning tourism industry. That is, of course, a key source of foreign exchange. Next came COVID, which, of course, further destroyed the nation's tourism industry. And in crisis, the government made several completely disastrous decisions. So in a wrongheaded attempt to reverse the flow of currency out of the nation, Sri Lanka banned all import and use of fertilizer. That in turn devastated their storied tea industry as productivity plummeted and also made it so for the first time in history, Sri Lanka could not feed

itself, leading to the need to import food and further exacerbating that foreign exchange crisis. In another completely disastrous move, the government also passed a massive tax cut in an attempt to stimulate growth. Predictably, it did not stimulate growth. Instead, it just robbed government coffers of funds that they desperately needed to stay current on their debt payments. Next came the war in Russia, which had a triple whammy effect on Sri Lanka. Not only are they suffering with the high gas prices, the high food prices that have all been accelerated by the war, but Russians and Ukrainians were actually disproportionate contributors to Sri Lankan tourism. So the loss of those travelers has been a further disaster for the nation. The international

community then downgraded Sri Lankan debt, making it impossible for them to borrow for importing food and importing fuel. They were unable to make their debt payments, leading to an official default as the government went bankrupt. And all of this together means that daily life has just become an absolute misery for almost everyone. Lines for gas can last for two days. Hospitals have run out of life-saving medicines, leading to a health crisis that experts say might be more deadly for them than COVID was. Food inflation skyrocketed to 80% last month, and nearly everyone has been forced to reduce what they eat as prices spike and food scarcity grows. Blackouts in the sweltering heat have become a normal part of daily life. But unfortunately, Sri Lanka's problems, they increasingly find echoes in

nations around the world. Now, I recently told you about a general strike in Ecuador led by indigenous farmers who are demanding debt relief and price relief. The Wall Street Journal name checks Zambia, Lebanon, Laos, and Pakistan as countries that are facing similar conditions to Sri Lanka with high debt loads, high inflation, and increasingly desperate populations. Bloomberg is reporting that in addition to Pakistan, El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, and Tunisia are also struggling with debt payments and in danger of default. In fact, the number of poor nations with sovereign debt trading at distressed levels, that has doubled in just six months. Now, one thing you may not know is our own Federal Reserve policy is actually making life even more difficult for the 19 nations that now have distressed debt. As we increase our interest rates, that means the value of the dollar surges, making it more difficult for countries to service their dollar-denominated sovereign debt. Contagion, also a real danger here as well. As nations like Sri Lanka start to default, it can lead to a sort of investor run on developing world bonds, triggering a domino

effect of defaults. There are already indications that this process is underway. Now, some of these countries are already experiencing growing protests. There are now effectively bride riots in countries from Argentina to Albania, Kenya, Panama and Ghana. This, of course, is exactly what we have been warning about here broke the camel's back? The war in Ukraine, which is contributing to spikes in food and fuel prices and making it difficult to acquire essential fertilizer. This is why it is so important to remember that the Ukraine war, while of course most devastating for the people in that nation, it is pretty damn devastating for a lot of people around the world. And that is why, overwhelmingly, our number one priority for this war should be to do what we can to end it.

Because there are literally hundreds of millions of people around the world who are already at the brink. And the knock-on effects of this war are pushing them right over the edge. No nation will be spared from this catastrophe. And listen, again, some of the conditions in Sri Lanka are... And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at BreakingPoints.com. Okay, guys, thank you so much for watching. We really appreciate it. I hope you enjoyed our midterms special. That's what we had for everybody. It was a lot of fun in order to do this. And

premium subscribers, we deeply appreciate you all. As I mentioned, if you guys, the monthly ones, if you're able to upgrade, it would deeply appreciate it. We're offering a 20% discount there on the yearly for all time for you guys who are already existing monthly premium members. So of course, that's very helpful. If you want to join in particular, just to help us out, very much appreciated at this time. I know times are tough for everybody, so I get it. Yeah, we get it. If you're not able to. We're a business, though, after all. And look, just in general,

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