Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 8/12/24: Kamala Dominating Swing States, Kamala Becomes Border Hawk, Trump Attacks Rogan Over RFK, Ukraine Invades Russia, Israel Warns Iran Attack Imminent, Trump Campaign Hacked
Episode Date: August 12, 2024Krystal and Saagar discuss Kamala beating Trump in swing states, Trump flails attacking Kamala 'AI' rallies, Kamala becomes border hawk, Trump attacks Joe Rogan over RFK, Pelosi savages Biden, Ukraine... invades Russia, Israel warns of massive Iran attack, Trump campaign emails hacked. To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.com/ Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
Indeed, we do. A lot of interesting things that are happening this morning. We have new polls, and it's the New York Times-Siena poll of several battleground states.
So this is a really important and very closely watched one because this is considered a highly rated pollster.
We also have some interesting polls from other sources as well. Break all of that down for you about the current state of the race. Meanwhile, Trump is really flailing. He bought into this whole AI crowd-sized conspiracy theory. He's
still holding on to his former opponent, Joe Biden, just can't let it go. So we'll bring
you some of the highlights and lowlights from that. Kamala has launched a very hawkish immigration
ad. So we'll take a look at that and what that says about her campaign, her posture, the way she has changed over the years, etc. Joe Rogan sort of endorsed RFK Jr.
and chaos from the Trump MAGA world ensued. Again, Trump flailing. Trump actually responded
to that. Anyway, we'll show you all of that. Meanwhile, in some very, very frightening and
quite dire news, Ukraine has actually invaded Russia. It's gotten
very little attention in terms of the news media, very little attention in terms of, you know,
asking these various candidates what they think about that and where we're going from here.
So we'll take a look at that. Israel is still awaiting what Iran's response to Israel's latest
provocation may be. There are some developments in terms of potential ceasefire. Meanwhile,
Israel continues
to slaughter innocent civilians. The latest strike coming with U.S. bombs on a school where displaced
Palestinians were sheltering. But his emails, Trump's campaign emails, were hacked potentially
by Iran. Ken Klippenstein is going to join us to talk about what we could learn there,
how the press may handle it, and whether, in fact, what are the indications of whether this was actually
Iran or not. So a lot going on there. Yes, that's right. It is, however, 85 days until Election Day.
I think I'm going to continue this streak about the countdown clock. And next week is going to
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With that, let's get to the polls.
We have a million, and they're actually quite relevant.
Yeah, so as I was saying, New York Times-CNN, this is considered, you know, a top-tier poll.
Everyone watches it really closely, and they polled three battleground states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and that
old blue wall states.
Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.
They show a pretty similar picture in all three, which is Kamala Harris leading Donald
Trump by a margin of 50 to 46.
If you dig into this poll and the other questions they asked, it's actually quite
interesting. So put the next piece up on the screen. They asked people about whether or not
these candidates have certain traits. So on has a clear vision for the country, you have Kamala at
53 and you have Trump outperforming her there at 60. However, on the other traits, Kamala outperforms
Trump. So has the temperament to be an effective president.
Kamala's at 54, Trump's 45.
Is honest, Kamala 52, Trump 41.
Is intelligent, 65 to Trump's 56.
Will bring about the right kind of change, Kamala 50, Trump 47.
Sagar, that last one I think is in some ways the most important metric of where this
race is. And it really demonstrates how dramatically it has shifted with the change of candidate.
Joe Biden, obviously, as the current president, was very much the status quo choice.
And when questions were asked like that of him and Trump, Trump was vastly outpacing him.
Now, with a new change at the top of the ticket,
Kamala narrowly outpacing him on the idea of being the change candidate and bringing about
the right type of change. Just one last piece and I'll get your reaction to overall what this
poll had to say. They also tested the presidential and vice presidential picks favorability across
these battleground states. Let's go ahead and put Pennsylvania there up on the screen so you can see
because I think this is another really important indicator.
And this is pretty representative
of what the net favorables were
across each of these blue wall battleground states.
Tim Walls, very popular, plus 11% on net favorables.
You still have a good chunk though,
who don't know who he is
and are sort of waiting to decide
what they think about him.
Kamala Harris has dramatically spiked in terms of her favorability. She is now above water in these battleground states. She's
plus 2% in Pennsylvania. Trump, he actually has also seen a spike in favorability. He's at minus
three, so he's not as high as Kamala. But this actually represents the peak of where he has been
in recent times as well, which in some ways is a bad sign for him, Sagar. If he's at the peak of
his favorability, he's still losing. And then J.D. Vance down at minus 11 has taken on a good bit
of water since his launch. So like I said, this was fairly consistent picture across each of these
states. And I do think that this is kind of a really very important indicator is regardless of
where they're positioning themselves on the issues, etc. You have one ticket that's broadly popular and one ticket that's broadly unpopular.
The Trump campaign, obviously looking to try to shift that ground.
They're trying to shape it around, I should remind, I mean, plus two is one of those where
I would, I'd rather be in Tim Walz territory if I were Kamala Harris and that we should remember
the Democrats, even with roughly a plus 2% popular vote advantage can still lose in the electoral
college. What stuck out to me about New York Times-Siena was actually coming to the previous polls, where if we saw Biden was down
in Pennsylvania by three points there. So the swing of Biden to Harris is pretty unbelievable.
It's almost eight points. Keep in mind margin of error and all of that. But I think the movement,
whenever we look at where the Joe Biden numbers were in Pennsylvania and previous New York Times-CNN polls that I was just looking at
across the battleground states and generally compared to now, we're looking at almost 8 to
10 points roughly from Joe Biden's numbers to Kamala Harris. Nonetheless, that's a very,
very big problem for Donald Trump because it does show, and this is a previous hypothesis,
that he has roughly a 46% or 47% ceiling.
And that's always been the issue for him is that where RFK Jr. potentially could be bringing some votes away from Joe Biden or Joe Biden having very, very low enthusiasm and a variety of other factors that he could win with a 47%, 48%, perhaps even some disaffected bringing over to 51%. But if you're getting an outright majority, that is a big problem.
Remember, we're in an election where a net swing of only 100,000 votes is going to move the entire thing.
That's why looking at this movement, it's dangerous territory for Donald Trump right now.
I think that piece about her obtaining an outright majority is an important one.
Because back in 2016, even though Hillary was consistently polling ahead of Donald Trump, oftentimes she was still under 50%. And so it
was a warning sign of, okay, but once people fully decide and, you know, they move off of whatever
third party candidates they claim they're going to support, et cetera, how is this going to work
out? And, you know, that's how Trump was able to narrowly eke out the electoral college victory
over Hillary Clinton. So here, when you see Kamala at 50% in all of
these battleground states and not all that many people saying that they're undecided,
obviously that's got to be a concern for the Trump campaign. Of course, all the caveats in the world,
these same similar polls showed Joe Biden with quite a substantial lead in 2020 at this time.
He won, right? So he did enough to get over the finish line, but they definitely undercounted Trump's support. They undercounted Trump's support in 2016.
In 2022, it went the other direction, but then again, Trump wasn't on the ballot. So that's
always important to keep in mind. But part of why this New York Times-Siena poll is so significant,
as Zagre was alluding to, some of their polling that came out while Joe Biden was still in the
race was part of the more compelling argument of why he needed to go. Because when even a poll,
because he was doing the whole poll denial thing that now the Trump team has adopted of, oh,
our polls show something different. We don't buy these fake polls. We don't think that they're
correct. That's not what our data is showing, etc, etc. But it was pretty hard
to deny, you know, this particular pollster because of their track record and how much they're
respected in terms of their numbers. So a lot that's interesting there. One other thing before
we move on to some interesting numbers about who people trust on the economy. I think it was Nate
Silver that made this point. You know, generic Democrat does well against Trump, does well against the Republican
Party in general, and always has. And Kamala is not exactly a generic Democrat. She's obviously
been in the public eye. People have a lot of feelings about her, etc. But she is really
trying to occupy that space of generic Democrat. And that's the way the ticket is trying to shape
and position themselves. And listen, that's the way the ticket is trying to shape and position themselves.
And listen, that's actually pretty formidable against the Republican Party, especially a candidate like Trump, who remains broadly, you know, his favorability has gone up as well post assassination attempt, et cetera, et cetera.
But in general, he is the same strategy of Joe Biden and not being in any sense like challenged.
That's where and then you get a incredible media environment.
You put those two things together and you're in the perfect position.
You want to be as generic as possible. She's disavowed every public policy position that she's ever had. And it's like, everybody is like, oh, I don't even know what you're talking about. Let's talk about
something else from several years ago, but we will get to that. This is perhaps the biggest problem
I've seen yet for Trump. Let's put this up there on the screen. Keep in mind, this is just one,
but movement is important. This is from the FT Financial Times Michigan Ross poll.
They say voters who trust Harris significantly more with the economy than Biden. And it actually
has Kamala Harris edging out Donald Trump in his trust on the economy. You could see for those who
are watching where you had Joe Biden significantly underwater on Donald Trump, where Harris has
actually climbed. And more importantly is that the neither figure has dropped dramatically from July to August. So I always bring this up because back
in 2020, one of the best indicators of Trump support was not the top line polls. It was not
polling averages. It was trust on the economy. It's something that Trump campaign would very
often point out to me. I'd be like, hey, it says you're down by 15 points or whatever in Wisconsin.
They're like, listen, the economy figure is traditionally much more trusted and it's one that we are really relying on.
And I think they ended up being correct because they only lost by somewhat 60,000 votes or whatever.
That was far more predictable because it was genuinely more 50-50 back in 2020 in the midst of COVID, you know, mania.
Well, now today where they had a spread of almost 11, 12, 15 in some cases,
if we look on average, if this is perhaps an indicator, maybe they're not tied. Maybe he's
only up by two, maybe three. That's still way worse than being up by 10, 15, 20, 25 in some
cases. On the economy, it's basically a jump ball. And he cannot afford that. He needs to
have an edge there because there are a lot of other traits about him that people do not prefer. So you have to have a big
lean on the economy to make up for that. And it's actually quite fascinating to see the way that
this has played out. Joe Biden did her the biggest favor in the world, number one, by naming his
economic program Bidenomics. So it's very closely associated with him and not with her. Also by totally sidelining her.
I mean, she's been basically invisible as a vice president.
So she, it appears, got all the benefits of having the trappings and the station of the office and enabling people to envision her in that commander in chief role.
However, because she was sidelined, people aren't blaming her for whatever things that they
didn't like about the Biden administration. The other thing that I would say is, you know,
Biden's favorability rating has come up too since he decided to drop out of the race.
So much of what was weighing down this ticket and now is really clear was just about this guy being
really, really old. And that was, you know, that's an entirely legitimate concern and perspective. Apparently,
even the president himself came to agree with that assessment. So the fact that people believe
she will do better on the economy, they are not tying her to whatever the most unpopular
positions of this administration or performance of this administration was.
They feel like she represents more of a positive change than Donald Trump, even though she is, you know, part of the administration right now.
These are all extraordinary things that I would not necessarily have predicted. But also, Sagar,
I mean, the Trump campaign, they're going to try to change that. You know, their whole mission is
going to be, at least through their paid communications, Donald Trump doesn't seem to be
capable of doing a very effective job of pushing this message. But the paid communications will
be very much about tying her to the less popular parts of this administration. I think immigration
is probably their strongest hit on her. The whole borders are a thing. There was some testing we'll
show you in a little bit from Democratic group about which attacks were the most salient.
That was the most difficult one for her to be able to parry, which is why she's already putting out some immigration stuff. Like
I said, we'll talk about that in a minute. But right now they've got some work to do.
And the other thing is, time is really short. Yes, 85 days. It's not a long time.
While Trump is out here flailing around and still wishing it was Joe Biden,
indulging in like insane conspiracy theories, the Harris-Walls team is, you know,
been much more focused and on message. They're defining themselves. They're defining J.D. Vance
and Donald Trump. And they're headed into a convention where most of the time the party
comes out of the convention with a bump. Then you're into Labor Day and you're in the final
sprint. So there isn't that much time for Trump and Vance to change the ground of this
fight and be able to redefine what right now is a race that's slipping away for them.
Trump has really lost his edge. And I think, I mean, look, we can empathize at a certain point
at a human level. It's probably dizzying. It's crazy for us. And we're not even running. We're
not the ones who are actually in the race. You can't imagine probably what it's like to go from front runner back to 2016 insurgent status.
I have been watching a lot of some of the MAGA influencers, boosters, and others. And the ones
who are honest are like, okay, we're in a knife fight now. Now we're back to 2016. We're the
underdog at this point. You have the entire media apparatus against us. You have a unified
Democratic Party, very much like they had under Hillary Clinton in 2016. You had the same level of the unification
of really the party establishment of the Democrats from that time period. And this time, we're gonna
have to fight just like we did the last time. The problem is Trump is a different man from that time
around. He doesn't have the same almost freewheeling nature. His campaign today
is a balloon that includes the RNC, that includes donors and all these other things. He needs to be
unburdened by what has been, I actually think. He needs to return to the scrappy staff of like 10
people sitting in Trump Tower. And it turns out that that was one of the most potent political
forces in modern American history. I almost think he's being weighed down by being in some ways the Republican
establishment today, where previously his fighting instincts of coming and beating
the establishment for the GOP nomination set him up for victory in 2016.
There are a variety of things we can talk about, both policy and just campaign as well.
He doesn't have the vigor that he did. I remember watching that man crisscross that country every single day. It was shocking to even younger people how he could get like two,
three hours of sleep and he would be doing all these rallies. As president, he mostly kept up
that schedule, but a lot of that has diminished. And the problem is that this dizzying, finding
yourself, defining who we are, you don't have time for that right now. And I don't want to waste too much right now because we are going to get to that. But put this up there on
the screen. All the data in the world tells you and backs up what I'm saying. Here we have the
Nevada poll. A new poll of likely Nevada voters found Kamala with a nearly 6% lead over Donald
Trump. That is the largest lead for a Democrat and anti-presidential poll of Nevadans this cycle.
Why is this crazy? Because Trump was up in Nevada by a couple of points for months to the point where they were
like, hey, we've got Nevada in the bag. Sure, it's going to be a battleground. We're going to
spend some money. But the amount of money that I think that they previously had thought about
having to allocate to Nevada, now all of a sudden we're in a totally different world.
So your entire plan, your media plan, everything had to be torn up in the last couple of weeks. And in the interim period, you have all of this incredible earned
media enthusiasm for Kamala, lack of scrutiny on the record. The fact that she hasn't done
these interviews is the best possible moment. The only question, is this the honeymoon period
or is it not? And it's just too soon to say, because I think the convention,
the strategic advantage of that convention, of their convention happening when Joe Biden was president, of them having
that bomb post-assassination and everything, and not having the same opportunity to define
Kamala Harris, to have the unified media paying attention to them.
I don't think I can overstate how really terrible it is for the GOP.
Yeah.
That they blew their convention already. And I mean,
it's not their fault. Of course, they didn't know, but it's a major disadvantage.
No, absolutely. And they clearly didn't, even though they had long been saying they thought
it was possible, even before the disastrous debate, et cetera, that they thought it was
possible that they would pull Joe Biden, they clearly didn't really prepare. And Trump certainly was not really able to wrap his head around it. And he still isn't.
In Nevada, you know, John Ralston, who is like the political guru in Nevada. I remember previous
polls coming out under Biden where he's looking at this. He's going, not only are they going to
lose for president, like Jackie Rosen, who's running for reelection in the Senate, is in
trouble. There's a number of swing districts in Nevada.
He's like, you just can't have this kind of presidential margin and think that you're
going to be able to hang on to these seats or pick up these seats.
So now with the shoe completely on the other foot, it really is remarkable to see.
And then also previously under when it was Biden, you had Republicans saying, hey, maybe
we're going to put Virginia into play.
Maybe we're going to put New Mexico into play. Maybe we're going to put Colorado into play.
Now it's Democrats who are positioning themselves to be able to go on the offense in states that
were beyond what Joe Biden was able to win in 2020. The place where they're most clearly making
the play and have the best chance of success is North Carolina. We can put this up on the screen.
So this latest poll, this is from YouGov. This is an A-rated pollster also, has it tied in North
Carolina, Harris 46, Trump 46. This is a state Biden lost, I wanna say by about 1.8 percentage
points, so it was not a lot. But it's also a state that Democrats, ever since Obama won it in 08,
it's a state that Democrats can come close in, but they can't really seem to
get over the top. They're hoping with Harris's sort of newly reconstituted coalition that she
may be able to pull off the state of North Carolina. And another thing that they've got
really weighing them down there is the Republicans have a very unpopular gubernatorial nominee who,
in this very same poll, was losing to the Democrat by 10 points because
Mark Robinson is not his name. He's said some wild things and it looks to be headed to defeat there.
That can help drive down the Republican ticket overall. So, you know, I think it's still,
you'd still bet on Republicans there. They still definitely have the edge,
but now Democrats are spending money there and Republicans are having to actually protect that
state when previously they were playing with, hey, do we go on offense in states that we didn't think we could
have on the map before? For example, if we look at the Senate race, it's very similar. In 2020,
Tom Tillis, everybody thought it was possible that the Democrat could beat him, Cal Cunningham.
Cal also had some of his own issues. But Tom Tillis only won by about 2%, something like that,
1.5 roughly.
That's not a great margin of victory.
That's not what you want to be in a traditional state.
Now, remember, another thing I've been continuing to try to bring up, North Carolina has significantly changed in the last four years.
It has one of the most booming economies in the entire United States, second only to Arizona.
They have had massive population inflow to Raleigh and to Charlotte in those urban areas.
They have a lot of fundamentals, East Coast time, banking, lots of jobs. It's a good place to live
if you're under 25 or so. They have high starting salaries relative to the other big cities. But
what that means is that they will have a similar Georgia phenomenon or Austin phenomenon, where you
have all of these people, largely from blue states, probably highly educated, or people with
bachelor's degrees who
are moving in and becoming newly registered voters. And that is just enough, perhaps,
to turn the tide when we look at only a couple of hundred thousand votes, which are the margin
of victory. And, you know, things don't have to go a different way. Things can go a different way
if it rains, if it snows, whatever. Something could very much materialize a surprise there.
Most importantly, what I just brought up about Nevada, where they didn't think they would have to spend that much money in Nevada or that much
in North Carolina. Well, now you might have to spend millions just to win by one or 2%. That's
a bad situation generally. Let's put the final one up there, please, on the screen. This was an
Arizona poll. This was conducted after July 30. And this shows Kamala actually leading Trump by about 2.8%. And that is in the
US Senate race. They have Gallego up by 11% over Carrie Lake. So this is the other question. Is
Carrie Lake going to be a drag on the Trump ticket? Very possible, considering how unpopular
she appears to be in the race in Arizona. The flip side of that for Donald Trump is that I saw a rally, I believe, with Kama of some 25,000 people in a stadium in Arizona.
That is astounding.
Then they had to turn people away at the door.
That's a bad situation.
I mean, that level of enthusiasm.
Arizona, similar, actually.
They have doubled the economic growth of North Carolina, what I was just talking about.
Their inflow is massive from California and from elsewhere. Their economy is booming. And Maricopa County, as we all learned in 2020,
is that prime suburban white vote that Kamala and Biden are going after with everything that
they've got. Highly educated, they want to come out and vote specifically on abortion.
And then what did we all forget?
What happened in Arizona just several months ago?
That whole 1864 abortion ban and all that nightmare.
You think they, you know, if you think they've forgotten that, they certainly haven't.
Millions of dollars in ad spend is there on abortion right now.
I'm pretty sure they have an abortion ballot initiative.
Yes, exactly.
This fall as well, which could very much help drive turnout and be, you know, in a close race could be a determining factor.
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I don't know if it's quite as stark as in 2022, where the Republicans nominated just a rash of candidates that were really, you know, unpalatable to a mainstream audience. But you do have in some
key states, you know, Kerry Lake weighing down the ticket in Arizona, Mark Robinson weighing down the ticket in North Carolina, and also contributing to
the Democratic messaging that this is a fringe ticket, this is a quote unquote weird ticket
that are, you know, these are all headwinds that Republicans now have to deal with that
previously they were completely sailing above. I mean, I really thought with Biden, Arizona was
gone. Nevada was gone. The only prayer he had after that debate, he really didn't have a prayer anywhere.
But the only prayer he had was hoping to hold on to those three blue wall industrial Midwestern
states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada over. And now you've got Kamala leading in polls in those
states and potentially even putting North
Carolina back in play, which again, we haven't seen since Obama 2008. So just an absolute 180
turn. And, you know, to segue into the next piece, Trump is really struggling to deal with it because
as much as, listen, Joe Biden is older and way more feeble. And so when he was in the race,
you sort of forgot about Trump's age, but he's also
an old man. And one of the common things is, you know, when you get old, you get stuck in your
ways. And he had his head set on this race being a certain way, and it is not that way anymore.
And he's clearly having trouble letting go of his previous opponent, Joe Biden, and that showed up
at a recent rally. Let's take a listen to what he had to say. I think Crooked Joe is more correct to say.
You're like, all right, ready?
Crooked first, right?
What do you like better?
Crooked Joe?
Or Sleepy Joe?
Crooked seems to always win.
I mean, he's a crooked guy.
All he had to do is think of it.
If he didn't do the debate, he'd still be running.
They'd be saying how great he is.
He's a brilliant man, a wonderful guy.
Couldn't beat me now.
I mean, after the debate, he was down, way down in the polls.
They didn't even want to show the polls.
They said he's not going to win.
So they said, we're going to take him out and we're going to put somebody new in.
This never happened to anybody before.
You spend, we spent $100 million fighting crooked Joe Biden.
And then all of a sudden they decide to take him out and put somebody else in.
She never got one vote.
She was the first loser in the primaries. You know,
she ran against Joe Biden and everybody else. I think they had like 16 people running.
She never made Iowa the first state. I love Iowa. You know why I love it? Because I win it every
single time with the farmers. We win it. But she never made Iowa. She was the first one to quit.
And now and stupid. Honestly, she was the nastiest to one to quit. And now, and stupid.
Honestly, she was the nastiest to him, too.
And then he picked her.
I couldn't believe it.
And she was part of the cabal that got him out.
You know, they got him out.
They said, we'll do it the nice way.
We'll do it the hard way, Joe.
We'll use the 25th Amendment.
And we'll call you mentally incompetent.
And everybody will believe us.
And, you know, what they did is a terrible thing, actually. They forced him out. It was a coup.
We had a coup. That was the first coup in the history of our country. And it was very successful.
He said, OK, I'll leave. If that's what you want, I'll leave. And now he's seeing what
the competition is. I hear he's going to make a comeback at the Democrat convention.
He's going to walk into the room and he's going to say, I want my presidency back.
I want another chance to debate Trump. I want another chance.
So still still hoping, still living the dream that maybe Joe Biden's going to come back.
I think it's tough. I mean, like I said, I understand where he's coming from, but I just think that, look, really what I have come to look at is where 2016, Trump calls the mood of the country
correctly.
And that is perhaps his single biggest political insight.
Hillary and everybody is running on optimism, all, you know, trying to recapture Obama.
And he's like, no, American carnage.
That's the message.
It was a negative campaign, but negative in a way that it captures the rage of the American people. The reason that Biden narrowly edges out Trump
is because he did not return to normalcy, but he's like, everything is just too crazy.
Elect an old guy and I'll just sit on my hands for four years and everything will be fine. And again,
that's enough to bring people out. But the Trump carnage message still resonates.
Now, here is where I think it gets complicated, because right now we have change is the number one thing that people want from a
presidential candidate. But change from what? And that means many different things to different
people. One of the things that Tim Walz has impressed me on is the joyful warrior. And
there's also you have Kamala embracing this generic de-messaging, abandoning all of her previous positions,
and trying to just be as un- what is it? Inoffensive as humanly possible, so you could
project whatever you want onto her. That is actually a Trumpian strategy. Trump was all
things to all people. It was his greatest political strength on top of that. And so
watching the grievance from Donald Trump, I really worry for him it misses the message. And it's actually something I don't necessarily notice whenever I see other successful Republicans
or even J.D. Vance in many of his interviews. He's not channeling that same level of grievance,
both about today and then centering it around himself. At the very least, it's usually grievance
about something like policy related. And so for Trump, the more that it
turns grievance onto him and the more that it seems to be away from where that the change
message that Americans want. And it's stuff like this relitigating what he doesn't seem to
understand as Americans. I keep saying this have such a tremendous capacity for amnesia.
People don't even remember Biden exists. They don't barely remember that Trump got shot
a month ago, a month ago.
A month ago.
But that, I mean, everyone's like, it's unfair.
Okay, that's life.
You have to, you know, you have to go to war with the troops that you have.
And I really think he's misreading the mood of the country.
I also will say this.
Why is he in Bozeman, Montana?
Why are we in Montana?
A state with how many, four electoral votes?
There's a close Senate contest there. Okay, so that's his job to get elected.
Your job is to get elected president, bro.
You haven't done a rally in five days and your ass is on a plane to Montana?
What are you doing?
You should go camp out in the Midwest.
And we're sure he doesn't have any other rallies planned for the rest of the month.
For the rest of the month, he went to Montana.
That's it.
So at the same time, you know, he, so I think one of the clever strategies of the Democratic
Party ticket, and this really is, you know, this came directly from Tim Walz.
I think the, rather than making Trump bigger than life of the threat to democracy and restored
about this, like very moralizing sort of grandiose language about him.
Instead, they're sort of, they're diminishing him. They're making him small
and they're rolling their eyes and laughing at him. So that's where weird is a very different
frame than the threat to democracy frame. And in that context, all the things that he's doing,
where he's, you know, this wild press conference he did last week, where he said all kinds of stuff
in the National Association of Black Journalists, where he throws out the, you know, race baiting stuff.
And then this latest conspiracy theory that he's glomming onto, it just feels sort of pathetic.
Like it feels desperate if you can see that he's struggling. And so I think that the rhetoric of
laughing at him, not taking the bait every time, just moving on and staying focused on the message,
I think has been very wise from them from a political standpoint. So just to break down
this latest conspiracy. So Kamala and Tim Walz, Democrats are elated that it's not Donald Trump
at the top of the ticket. They are elated that they have a candidate who can read a teleprompter
ably and has some charisma on the stump and is able to just do like the basics of
competent campaigning. And so they have been turning out in droves to every single rally
that they've done. This is very difficult for Donald Trump specifically mentally to wrap his
head around because in his head, he's the big rally guy, right? And there have been a, and I
think, you know, Mag has been kind of their own self-constructed
like super online bubble where they also can't wrap their head around the fact that there's a
genuine enthusiasm for the change in the ticket. So you started seeing this floating around. Many,
many accounts took this and ran with it. There's this whole theory that actually the rally crowds aren't real. And it all centers around this one photo
of her landing. Where was this? But in Nevada, I think that was Detroit, Detroit. Yeah. And there
they, you know, circled in on the plane and they're saying, oh, look, you can't see the
reflection of the crowd in the plane. So this is all AI. This isn't real. I mean, obviously,
this is preposterous. There were a lot of people. There's also video. A lot of people. Watch it on video. Yes. At all the rather were,
you know, reporters from Fox News at this rally who also reported on the crowd. Like,
do you think that they're in the bag for the Harris-Walls campaign? It's preposterous.
It's really desperate and pathetic. But it's one thing when a rando on Twitter at Jody Blues
is sharing this kind of content. It's another thing when the former
president and current Republican nominee decides to go in on this as well. So Trump shared the
exact same thing and says, has anyone noticed that Kamala cheated at the airport? There was
nobody at the plane and she AI'd it and showed a massive crowd of so-called followers, but they
didn't exist. And then goes on to say, you know, she's a cheater. She had nobody waiting, that some maintenance person turned her in and exposed
the fraud, et cetera, et cetera. And he finishes by saying, they're even worse at the ballot box.
She shouldn't be disqualified because the creation of a fake image is election interference.
Anyone who does that will cheat at anything. So rather than just repeating border
czar over and over again, this is instead the line of attack on Kamala, which again, just
to any normal person looks and feels preposterous. Yeah, it's stupid. It's just one of those where
Trump is. This is where Trump actually is his own worst enemy, and he's not playing
four or five D chess. And there is a reason that there's not a single other elected
Republican who
is even doing this. He will glob on to anything. We learned this during Stop the Steal, anything
that contributes to his ego. And hey, in an 18 month race where you get to run against Kamala,
I think that's fine. History has proven it won't necessarily count against you. It's just a baked
in part of your personality. But when we only have 85 days until election day, is that really what we want to be spending our time on? We have no
rallies. We are attacking Brian Kemp. We are, you know, making ridiculous claims about false AI
generated images of crowds. Also, don't take it from me. Take it from Tim Pool. OK, so somebody
with more credibility, I think, with people from MAGA, like everybody is laughing and it is desperate. And that's where, again, I'm coming back to that mood of the country
thing. I think he is misreading that people are not as outraged about the Biden situation as he
has perhaps some Republicans, but that's not the whole country. And that just gets to like how,
uh, in when message and grievance aligns with the mood, that's whenever he wins the best.
Whenever it's on policy, that's whenever it can be convenient. But here is where 2022 energy is
coming into play. And you are actually out of step where people are. For example, I watched
his entire press conference on Thursday, and he made one of the most ridiculous statements I've
ever seen from him. And it's against wish casting. He said, I don't think abortion will be a major issue in this campaign. And it's like,
I get that you wish that to be the case, but that's not how that works. In fact,
telling people not to worry about the number one thing that most Democrats and some swing voters
are worried about seems to be the opposite of how it should be. You want to allay their concerns
and then maybe talk about immigration a little bit more on top of that. So I'm just watching him flailing. And I think,
again, I empathize on a human level as to how difficult it probably is to be in that situation
and dizzying. But the cards are dealt the way that they are dealt. And that's just how it is
sometimes. You had close to 90% of the country that was glad Biden stepped aside. Yeah, everyone's
happy.
So, you know, if you think that you're and I've seen some message testing on this as well, like going back and relitigating what happened in the pressure campaign to push Biden out.
No one's interested in it.
They're like, onward and upward.
What are you going to do for me?
What's the program for the future?
But he is struggling clearly to get past his sense of the injustice and unfairness that was done to him.
And like you said, I mean, I can understand.
They did an entire RNC assuming it was going to be Joe Biden.
And then the rug gets pulled out from under them.
Immediately, it was that weekend after the RNC, right?
Where after all of this messaging and program planning and you're looking at the polls and you're like, I'm doing great.
And this is going to be so easy. And, you know, I'm going to I can really run up the score in these states that
shouldn't even be on the map. And like that, it's changed. And he is clearly struggling to adjust
to that reality. And it's also the shoe is now on the other foot where Democrats previously,
Joe Biden specifically, was in total denial about the collapse in his position, electoral position,
and polling status. And his aides were helping to insulate him in this bubble and only bringing him
the best numbers to allay his concerns and feed his ego because they didn't want to have to deal
with his wrath if they brought him some bad news that he didn't want to hear. Well, now you have
the Trump campaign doing the poll denial. Not only do you have him denying that
abortion is going to be an important issue, denying that Kamala Harris is getting significant
rally crowds and has a lot of enthusiasm. They're just out and out now doing poll,
unskewing the poll stuff. So let's put this up on the screen. Trump's campaign pollster
put out a new confidential memo responding to the New York Times Sienna polling showing Harris up in blue wall states.
He claims that they dramatically understated President Trump's support both among all registered
voters and in their likely voter model.
Democrats, this is exactly what I saw a million Democrats online engaged in when Biden was
down in the polls.
They'd go in and they look at the Sienna, they under sampled this demographic group. They oversampled that demographic group. These aren't accurate.
This literally this same poll, the New York Times, Seattle poll, Democrats were doing
this same thing with when it was Joe Biden in the race. And now it's the same pollster.
It's the very same methodology. Now, suddenly the Democrats are good with it. They believe it now,
where it was fake news before. Now they believe it. And the Republicans who were, you know, really trusted it last time when it showed Trump up.
Now they're the ones who are doing the unskewed the poll nonsense.
It's not a good look.
You know, it's one of those where we mock it from the Democrats because it is insecurity.
And it's like, even if it is true, then prove it.
Like actually go out, continue to draw big crowds, have energy, point to that,
and then come election day, if you win, you can say, ha, ha, ha, look at you, you look like an
idiot. So even with these, keep in mind, I don't necessarily believe any of these. I'm just looking
at movement. I think it's generally indicative of something. Now, how many of us have all been
burned here by polls to say that we can believe 100% of where things are?
It's only to try and shape the way that you think trends are going.
And that's perhaps the way they should look at it.
If anything, it's just a better message to say, look, if anybody gets a honeymoon period, Kamala, I'll see you on the stage on September or whatever, the debate that they have agreed on, and I will humiliate you in front of the American people.
I think it's a far stronger and a better message.
And again, this is where Trump's insecurity really comes from
because he is the central character who is putting this stuff out.
He's the one who's ordering Tony Fabrizio, his pollster, to put that out.
I don't see J.D.
You know, he did, what, five interviews or whatever
with multiple different Sunday shows.
He didn't unskew the polls once because you look like an idiot whenever you do it.
I don't see even the press secretaries and all of them doing this. It's Trump, you know, trying to massage
his own ego. And, you know, again, the more that he's going to make this thing about himself,
the more that I think he will lose. Let's put this up there on the screen. For example,
this is a frankly hilarious anecdote, but it shows donors inside of the Trump, the donors to Trump who are urging him to try
and shift some of his rhetoric.
This was including roughly 130 people, quote, dined in an air-conditioned tent with some
of Trump's wealthiest supporters, including Bill Ackman, who sat next to the former president.
Some guess Trump would signal, hoped that Trump would signal that he was recalibrating
after a series of damaging mistakes.
He did not.
Before the dinner, answering a question that raised concerns about the upcoming election
inside of the House, Trump said, we've got to stop the steal, reviving yet again the 2020 election,
claiming his advisors had urged him to drop because they don't help him with swing voters.
And that's the thing about him. He is his own, you know, like, nope. And this is another MAGA thing I see
all the time. Why do Trump's advisors always listen? He's a grown ass man. He could literally
be my grandfather. It is on him. He is the person who is making these decisions. To me, he is just
pure it. He cannot control himself. He's one of those where if he feels something strongly,
especially if it impacts his own image and he appears,
you know, thinks it's damaging, he will just attack, attack, attack. And he will talk about
that regardless, especially if people tell him not to talk about it. Now, in some cases,
that's a political strength. Here, I think it is very proven that it is a political loser.
And it's one of the things that loses him the most of ground with people who are swing voters.
So that anecdote is a real insight into him and how insecure he feels now
at this moment. Now, he's been here before. We've seen him in Access Hollywood. We've seen him
Charlottesville, many of these other things. And he usually comes out both swinging and usually
he's found himself to wriggle his way out of a lot else. So I wouldn't put it past him. And I
still think the election is basically a toss up if we look at Nate Silver and everything else.
But the trend is not good right now for Donald Trump.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The trend is not good.
I think also part of this is him.
He constructs alternate realities for himself and for his followers.
And, you know, we constructed an alternate reality in 2020 where he actually won and
was wronged and he tried to overturn the results.
Now, I think he would try to do that again.
He's trying to construct this alternate reality where this is all fake. The rally crowds are fake. The polls are fake.
I'm actually up big. This is all ridiculous. So that even if when he loses, he can persuade his
followers at the very least that actually this was all wrong and the election was rigged, etc.,
etc. I do think he's partly laying the groundwork for that and constructing that alternate reality in which he can never lose.
However, this time he's not the president. This time he doesn't have any of the levers of power
to even attempt to effectuate some sort of stop the steal type of situation.
So it's, yeah, as I said before, it just looks pathetic. And I can only imagine his donors who, you know, got in when he was riding high,
now watching this all sort of collapse and him being increasingly unhinged
and what they're thinking about what they've signed on for here.
The other thing, as I mentioned before, is he is not really, like, campaigning that much.
Let's put this up on the screen.
He plans a light campaign schedule for
August. He contrasts with August 2016. Trump had 27 rallies in the month of August in 2016 in 15
different states. He later went on to win most of those states in November. This month, Trump has
held one rally in Montana, not exactly a swing state. And that is all that is planned.
That's all that's on the calendar for the entire month of August.
Now, I mean, he could spin up a rally, you know, and do a rally or two before the month's out.
But what his campaign was telling Politico and others is basically like, no, we're just going to wait for the Dems to do their convention and come out swinging after Labor Day.
But again, man, you got a condensed timeline here. It is so much easier to be able to define someone who hasn't
already been defined. So right now, Kamala Harris and Tim Wallace are out there defining you,
defining J.D. Vance, defining themselves, and you're basically not really fighting back at all. And the rallies were really the lifeblood of that 2016 campaign.
He fed off them.
It was part of what made him so strong in terms of having his finger on the pulse and his messaging.
Because he would test stuff in real time with the crowd and get a sense of what hit and what didn't hit.
So with him just cocooned in Mar-a-Lago with his yes men and yes women around him, he's not able to get out into the world and have that real sense of
how things are landing with an actual crowd. Also earned media. I mean, one of the things
that Trump was the master at is he was just everywhere. He was always on the airwaves. In
fact, if everyone remembers the 2016 criticism of the media is that they played too much of
Donald Trump because he gave them so much to work with. 27 rallies. They couldn't resist. 15 states in August
of 2016. Why? Because you never knew what the man was going to say. He always made news. And then
not only would he do that, then he would do, I remember I attended these conferences here in
Washington, the foreign policy conference, the America first thing. He would turn it into a
rally and then he would say that he was going to make a major announcement, and then he would have a campaign rally and force people to cover it.
So we've had one press conference, we've had one rally in freaking Montana, which nobody cares about.
Sure, it's great to get a Republican elected in Montana, but that's the Republican's job in Montana.
Why is Trump acting like his midterm season, flying his, all the way to Montana. Again, he should be in the Midwest. He should be in Arizona. He should be in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, all of these different
states. And that is, I think, the central issue. So from what I understand, that is the current
plan. Now, from what I hear, their alleged plan, Crystal, is that after Labor Day, they're going
to dump as much money as humanly possible on the airwaves.
And listen, maybe that is enough to put them over because they're like, at that point,
he'll have the bump and all of that. But I just think that the momentum and also, frankly,
the media environment is one that needs to be shifted and changed today. You have to get,
I mean, this is something JD actually, I think, successfully did. Going over and pressing the media and be like, hey, why haven't you guys taken any questions from Kamala?
She came out literally the next day and she said, I hope to have an interview scheduled
within the next month, scheduled within the next month. Great. But she's actually taken two or
three questions now from the press corps. Is that good? No, we need a ton more. We need way more
than that. She'd be doing multi-hour scrums considering that she dropped in at the last moment. But that was enough to at least put pressure on her where
she's like, all right, it's starting to look bad, but I haven't done it in 16 days.
I need to say something. Exactly. So Trump should be out there every single day. Well,
that was one of the genius things of his press conference that he should be doing over and over
again. He said, every question, I'm here taking questions from you on anything, including where
I got shot in my ear, including Mipha Prristone, the lobe, as they call it.
A hilarious moment.
As he points to the top of his ear.
But listen, this is over what?
This was over an hour-long press conference.
Just standing and doing that is a contrast.
But the media, comma, everybody's rolling their eyes.
You can't do it once.
You have to do it every single day.
Force the conversation.
Force the conversation, force the conversation. And let's say we set the media environment up so that next
week when we're all at the convention, Kamala is like, well, damn, I do need to do something.
I'm starting to look bad if he does 13 press conferences now in between and rallies and he
has energy and interviews. And that's something, though, that he's not doing. And so by dropping
that and by giving the media less to contrast with,
Kamala actually looks okay. And that is where, you know, the light campaign schedule, I don't think I could stress enough. I just think it's terrible, especially if all we hear on true social
is this bullshit about AI rallies and unscrewing the polls. It's like when you have that, especially
also in the absence of the lack of work, I don't think things are going well right now.
Yeah. I mean, right now he's enabling Kamala and Walls to basically like vibe and meme
their way to November.
And, you know, even when you do, even when he does a press conference, so he did this
press conference, it's not like he was saying anything that was really like, it was not
what his advisors would want him to be saying.
But it doesn't matter.
It's something.
But here's the other thing is, I think Trump, two things. Number one, I think he's sort of like
burned out the circuits in terms of his typical style. We're all so used to his antics.
True. And the news cycle moves so quickly
that this whole Kamala became black thing that he did, what, two weeks ago, that would have sparked
weeks of endless
hand-wringing from Democrats in 2016 and probably in 2020 as well. And when you're doing the whole,
like, the soul of our country and democracy is on the line, whatever, then that lends itself to this
sort of, like, sanctimonious moralizing that is just endless. When your frame is weird and pathetic,
then you just sort of roll your eyes at it and move on. And so I think both, you know,
the media isn't going to hang on to his attempts to grab the spotlight as much as they used to.
And the Harris-Walls campaign is set up much more intelligently to deal with any of his attempts to
really grab the spotlight back. But to the point
about him not really grappling with reality, not being able to really deal with the landscape as
it faces him. In that press conference, I believe the entire time, he didn't say,
he attacked Tim Walz, but he didn't say his name once. He didn't go with any of the attacks that
Republicans and J.D. Vance have been trying to make on Wallace.
Instead, he said this thing that I found completely hilarious.
Mostly this is just an excuse to get this into the show.
But also it was an incoherent and like barely an attack on him.
Let's take a listen to how he talked about Kamala Harris's choice of Tim Wallace.
She's a radical left person at a level that nobody's seen. She picked a radical left man that is, he's got things
done that he's, he has positions that are just not, it's not even possible to believe that they
exist. He's going for things that nobody's ever even heard of. Heavy into the transgender world,
heavy into lots of different worlds. heavy into lots of different worlds.
Heavy into lots of different worlds.
Doesn't name a single policy.
Doesn't say his name.
I don't I genuinely don't think that he could remember his name in this press conference because he didn't say it once.
He just referred to him as like her radical left man or whatever.
Trump is not currently sending his best, especially when J.D. and, you know, and all MAGA influencers are prosecuting the best they can
on the airwaves. But this is the other thing. Again, they're still the number two man. The
number two man can't overdo the number one man. In Trump's own words, the vice president rarely
matters. Correct. And I think that's true. Being the attack dog is great, but you're not the number
one man. It's about ultimately supporting somebody above you. And what he says is by definition 10x more newsworthy than everybody else. So I think
they're truly flailing. This campaign strategy, I think, is absolutely counter to the insurgency
that he brought and the energy of 2016. Even in 2020, he crisscrossed his damn country,
went everywhere. The energy was very high. And remember, he very nearly
won that election.
So I do think there's a lot of problems in that campaign.
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Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast hell and gone,
I've learned one thing. No town is too small for murder. I'm Katherine Townsend. I've received
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I was calling about the murder of my husband at the cold case.
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Turning now to Kamala Harris and some of the changes that she's made in her campaign,
it appears that she has fully flip-flopped on immigration. And one of our own producers remarked that one of her latest ads on the border may as well come from the Republicans.
Let's take a listen.
Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime.
As a border state prosecutor, she took on drug cartels
and jailed gang members for smuggling weapons and drugs across the border.
As vice president, she backed the toughest border control bill in decades.
And as president, she will hire thousands more border agents and crack down on
fentanyl and human trafficking. Fixing the border is tough. So is Kamala Harris.
I'm Kamala Harris, and I approve this message.
She approves the message, Crystal. This has got to be one of the biggest about faces
that we have seen yet from Kamala. On the record, her campaign has disavowed
now her positions, what is it, on fracking, on immigration, on healthcare. Am I missing anything
in terms of the major disavowals? I mean, but those are the big ones.
Pretty much anything she said in 2020 primary.
I mean, I could be wrong.
She's run away from, yeah. I mean, listen, she's not wrong that they did pursue actually a quite hawkish for a
by Democratic standards policy on the border and tried to pass that bill that had a lot
of the Republican wishlist priorities, et cetera.
But, you know, as I've been saying, Saver, like, I just I don't think that this is the
most effective messaging because I don't think it's particularly credible.
It's literally not credible. If you're leaning, this ad right here, like putting aside my views of the immorality of
this direction, this ad right here just seeds the ground to the Republican view of immigration,
in which the only focus needs to be cracking down, in which immigration is always bad,
and there's nothing on the other side. We also, you know, to your point, and I'll get to
what I think would be more effective and what the sort of polling and data suggests would be more
effective than this just like, I'll be as tough as Donald Trump, if not even more. It also really
does contrast with the way she used to talk about the issue not so long ago. Let's take a listen to
a little bit of that. To somehow suggest that an undocumented
immigrant is a criminal. Being an undocumented immigrant is not a crime. I know what a crime
looks like. An undocumented immigrant is not a criminal. An undocumented immigrant is not a
criminal. An undocumented immigrant is not a criminal. When we talk about the immigration
debate, I think there is no question that there are powerful forces, including this president, that are attempting to vilify, if not one generation, away from immigrants who arrived in this country.
I mean, you know, it's a total about-face in terms of how she's framed it.
And the reason it bugs me is that, you know, when you don't sit for an interview, even a Jake Tapper or somebody like that can roll back his own tape and be like, what are we doing here?
You really are going to sit here credibly and make this case?
We have gone from Cop Mala to what, Criminal Justice Kamala to back to Cop Mala.
And it's like, who are you?
And this is where at least some people in the Trump field have began to found their
footing.
So J.D. had a potent attack in one of his interviews over the weekend
where he's like, this woman believes nothing. She's a scripted machine. She is somebody who
is completely a flip-flopper. And I thought back to 2004 and some of the flip-flopped attack
on John Kerry. And if we think back to what those splice ads used to look like back then,
keep in mind that was on security. But the reason why I think it's potent here is immigration is the number one swing issue, whereas the biggest gulf between the two.
And it's similar, actually, how the Democrats should be hitting Donald Trump. Be like,
he claims that abortion is not going to be a big issue or any of that. It's like,
if I were them, I would say, tell that to the women who are literally unable to get an abortion
or don't even know, can't have any choice before they even find out that they're pregnant. So you want to be able to hit the gulf issue where the biggest issue
divides you and your opponent. So that is where I think the Trump people are going to try and focus.
But as you also correctly said, I think there is something just so deeply phony about this,
which hits to her character where you have no credibility. We don't trust you.
You said something very different previously. And now, you know, because of polling or whatever,
you've decided to disavow this. And if we do see swings or more potent attacks come on Kamala,
it will come from this type of direction, I think. So, I mean, we all know why she's doing it,
because if you pull on the issues, this is the issue where she has the greatest vulnerability.
And, you know, the Democratic instinct is rather than make an alternative case that actually reflects, you know, the vision as Democrats have expressed it, including Kamala Harris over the past number of years, just to see the ground, say, you know, we're going to be just as tough.
And again, I don't think that that is the most effective way to go about it.
But let's put this polling up on the screen.
This is from a Democratic group that was testing a bunch of different messaging and potential attacks on Kamala Harris.
And the one that was the most damaging was on immigration.
The message they tested specifically was,
Vice President Harris has been an absolute disaster on immigration as Biden's so-called border czar.
She has turned our southern border into a sieve, allowing countless illegal immigrants, criminals, and drug traffickers
to flood into our country. Her incompetence and open border policies have jeopardized American
security and overwhelmed our southern border. So that was the most potent hit on her that they
tested. And they tested an economic message. They tested something like the anti-family message.
They tested the she's not really black message. That one didn't do particularly well. But note what the most effective rebuttal is here.
The number one most effective rebuttal that they tested was, as a daughter of immigrants,
Vice President Harris understands that people who want to come to the U.S. should do so the
legal way like her parents did, and that we need a system that creates better
legal pathways for people to immigrate the right way.
Vice President Harris understands our nation's strength comes from immigrants and we welcome
people from all over the world to pursue freedom and opportunity here.
Vice President Harris will pursue responsible, humane immigration policies that welcome not
threaten those seeking a better life.
So it combined soccer, the idea of like, okay, people should be coming here legally. Vice President Harris's parents came here legally, both of them, and
people should come here legally. But we also need a system that allows for that. And right now,
that's not possible. And it's a completely contrasting vision. Rather than just seating
Republicans like we got to be tough on the border, got to be tough on the border, got to be tough on
the border. It's an actually alternative vision and one that, you know,
immigration is a complicated issue in terms of the polling on it. One that quite a lot of
Americans, in fact, a majority of Americans also believe in this conception of the country.
So, you know, I think that's a much stronger direction to go in, not only because, you know,
I happen to agree with the policy,
but also because it doesn't open her up to these very clear charges of like,
you sound completely different than you did just four years ago.
You're fake. And I think that's what it comes down to. I mean, I will note, you know, the number two thing that they tested was Vice President Harris is a prosecutor over the course
of her career. She's taken on gangs and drug smugglers, put a violent cop killer behind bars for life.
She supports byparts and legislation for Border Patrol to the money they need.
She will take border security force, putting violent gangs like MS-13, drug smugglers, coyotes, and human traffickers in prison.
So that one, I mean, obviously, that's a very popular message.
I think it should're correct about is not only about the testing.
It's that that one is a way less fake than I'm the prosecutor who's going to throw these people in jail.
It's like, no, you're not.
You flooded our country with 8 to 10 million illegal people.
Get out of here.
Who do you think you are? And now you're going to tell me that you're going to take the border seriously?
It's like you're a joke.
And everybody who's voting on immigration, all of us know that you are full of shit. And that is where, I don't know though, where the swing state voter will receive
this message because this gets to what we just talked about with Trump. You need actual discipline.
Even with Trump on immigration, I have yet to see him actually prosecute this case in the press
conference and on the airwaves.
Now, look, it could be coming. Like I said, they claim that all of these ads are going to come
after Labor Day, and they'll probably let these ads come out so that they can try to do
the contrast. But that's a very dangerous territory, I think, for the Trump campaign.
And broadly, what we see too from Kamala is that if they can get her on immigration,
which is the number one attack, that bleeds through to the economy and everything else.
This woman believes nothing. She's phony and she's reading off of a poll tested script. And
this is where her refusal to do interviews and her refusal also to only participate in one debate,
which is a disgrace. I mean, that really robs us of that chance to actually press her. Now,
if I were her, I would do the same thing. To be clear, cynically, it's the correct move.
Democratically, definitely not the best move. Yeah. I mean, Trump, just to give the example,
at that press conference, he's still talking about the, she became black at the National
Association of Black Journalists. He came there to make that attack.
Like, that of all the things they tested
was the weakest of anything you could say about her
and I think has a major possibility of a backlash effect.
When, you know, I don't agree with the direction
and the frame and whatever,
but clearly just saying borders are a million times
is way more effective.
That's true.
And then forces her on the back foot to have to talk about what she said before and what
she says now and get the press to start pressing the campaign on that, etc, etc.
Like you said, it's not like they don't respond.
They have been asking Harris surrogates about the quote unquote stolen valor Tim Walz thing.
They after J.D. Vance went and tracked down her campaign plane and Trump was
making a big deal on it, she's not doing any interviews. She felt pressured to have to do
interviews. So, you know, it's, I don't think it's the most ideal way for her to rebut these charges,
but I also don't see the Trump campaign really effectively landing the attack at this point.
And I'm also just not sure of the salience of
the issue because also the numbers of the border have gone down quite dramatically over the past
several months. People still say the economy is overall the number one thing. And I know you'll
say like, oh, well, these things are tied together. But most of the people who are voting on immigration
are Donald Trump voters to start with. So I'm not sure that this will be the critical issue that
Republicans want it to be. And it certainly won't be if they don't do an effective job of raising
the salience of it. Just because the numbers are down doesn't mean, like I said, there are still
eight to 10 million new people who are here illegally. The total illegal population is
probably 30 million now. That's insane. That's almost 11% of this entire country.
So it's not like new numbers aren't exactly making that horrible situation
worse. And then second, you know, of course, I do think that they're tied. But swing state polling
tells us that the white working class voter, the people that they allegedly need to, you know,
win over, that is their number one issue is immigration. It's not just the economy. And in
the eyes of the voters, the two are tied. So look, Arizona and Arizona, obviously, very, very border hawkish state that we have seen
from Mark Kelly and even the Democrats were willing to be like, I'm standing up to Joe Biden.
So that's where I want to see Mark Kelly. Maybe, you know, someone in the press could ask him a
question, be like, you criticize Joe Biden. So do you stand with Kamala Harris? Like,
which way do you think she's going to go? And then if he says, well, she's going to go in my
direction, we can go to her and be like, is that true? Is that what you agree with? Because that's very
different from where you were three years ago. I just come back to when you have the media like
this in your pocket, it's very difficult unless the Trump people are ultra disciplined and force
them to actually ask something. But if they continue this bullshit about AI, I mean, that's
a gift to CNN. All they want to do all day at CNN and MSNBC is look at this
loser Trump talking about AI, crowd photos, and attacking Brian Kemp. Now, if you don't do any
of that and you only talk about immigration, they got to talk about something. And that's how you
actually get them to respond. So the discipline and the lack of discipline from the Trump people
is honestly maddening to watch whenever you see somebody like this just flip on a dime in the national public eye.
And obviously Trump has always been on discipline.
Yes, of course.
But to your point, in previous iterations, in 2016 in particular, in 2020 he was kind of, it was like all over the place, way too online.
There wasn't really an effective messaging strategy there either.
And lo and behold, even as an incumbent president, he ends up losing.
But in 2016, his lack of discipline worked to his advantage because he had his finger on the pulse of something. And he just doesn't this time. I mean, the only finger on the pulse with Trump
right now is just like his own sense of unfairness and grievance, which isn't at that point, there
was still that sense of grievance, but it was like connected to how a broader population now it's just about him. It's just about like how unfair this was to him
personally and not this broader finger on the pulse message that is actually landing.
And so, yeah, even if they have an effective point that they can make here, which again,
I think it is probably the best in terms of issue focus. It is the best issue focus for them.
But he is unable to drive the point on an issue that has always been one that he's been super
comfortable talking about. So it's kind of wild to see him flailing even in this area.
Only look, never put it in the words of Obama. I know Obama said never underestimate Joe Biden's
ability to fuck things up with Trump, I think the same logic applies.
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Let's move to the next part here,
the Joe Rogan controversy.
This also is emblematic of me,
of Trump and many of his online boosters,
not only making a bad strategic move,
but just showing tremendous,
just tremendous,
like they're coming at this from a position of such weakness where they seem to believe that Joe Rogan praising RFK Jr. and allegedly endorsing him, as claimed by certain Twitter clippers, incorrectly, was enough for them to turn and to begin attacking one of the most popular podcasters in the entire country. So here we have the clip that set everything off. Rogan talking about RFK Jr. in a positive manner. Let's take a listen.
That's just what they do. That's politics. They do it on the left. They do it on the right. They
gaslight you. They manipulate you. They promote narratives. And the only one who's not doing that
is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. You a fan? Yeah, I am a fan. Yeah, he's the only one that
makes sense to me. He's the only one that he doesn't attack people. He attacks actions and
ideas, but he's much more reasonable and intelligent. I mean, the guy was an environmental
attorney and cleaned up the East River. He's a legitimate guy. Okay, so that's all I said.
Now, that was construed as a quote-unquote endorsement by several people on Twitter.
By the way, shall we all just take this as evidence of when some random person you've never heard of says,
Joe Rogan endorses, maybe listen to the clip for yourself.
And if you don't use the word endorsement, then it's probably not endorsement.
He was saying things that were positive.
Rogan responds.
Let's put this up here.
He says, for the record, this isn't an endorsement. This is me saying I like RFK Jr. as a person. I really appreciate
the way he discusses things with civility and intelligence. I think we could use more of that
in this world. I also think Trump raising his fist and saying fight after getting shot is one
of the most American fucking things of all time. I am not the guy to get political information from.
If you want that from a comic, go to Dave Smith. He actually knows what he's talking about. Now, this, you know, kind of not necessarily walking away from the RFK endorsement
or whatever was enough for then Trump to see it. Let's put this up there. Trump now says it will
be interesting to see how loudly Joe Rogan gets booed the next time that he enters the UFC ring, MAGA 2024. This is where, again, Trump's pettiness
is so ludicrous to anybody who even tangentially follows the UFC. It's like, are we to believe
that Rogan, who quite literally is tied to the sport of UFC in its image from its infancy,
and that the fans there who probably all listen to his podcast are going to boo Joe Rogan for saying that he likes RFK Jr.
Or because Trump tells him to.
This is where Trump overestimates his own power.
Just because they cheer for you whenever you enter the octagon doesn't mean that they're going to just do or whenever you enter the stadium or whatever.
It does not mean that they're going to like just follow your instructions to boo him whenever he, and it's just, it's, again,
it's petty and it's one completely from a position of weakness. And I just think it was such,
it was so stupid for them to be engaging in because what happened this weekend, Trump and
Shane Gillis, or sorry, Rogan and Shane Gillis are making fun of Trump at their latest, I think
the Kill Tony show, the clip just came out where they're, they're making fun of the situation
and in Madison Square Garden in front of millions of people. And everybody was laughing at the idea
that Trump was going to be attacking Rogan. So anyway, very stupid idea. Yeah. I mean,
I did a whole monologue, you'll recall, about the way that the left would only fixate on the
things that Rogan would say that they really disagreed with. And when he would say things
they do agree with, they would just completely ignore. And it's like you have this very popular figure who has a lot of clout.
I mean, I understand why like a quote unquote endorsement from him matters.
You remember when he endorsed Bernie, it was similar of him being like, I'll probably vote for this.
I wasn't like I endorse Bernie Sanders.
And the Sanders campaign smartly took it and ran with it because this is a guy who has a lot of sway and clout with his audience. So why would you want to,
you know, blow this thing up massively and make it appear like he's an adversary, attack him
aggressively when, you know, he does by and large now talk about, he criticizes the Democrats way
more than the Republicans. He does by and large host a lot of conservative viewpoints. He has
been very good for a lot of elements of the right. And so for them to, you know,, host a lot of conservative viewpoints. He has been very good for a lot of
elements of the right. And so for them to turn on a dime and have the freak out that they did,
it was very indicative of how insecure they're feeling. And then it was also interesting to me
that he felt enough pressure, because he normally doesn't respond to any of the controversies.
He felt enough pressure to have to come out and say, well, it wasn't really an endorsement,
and here's something cool that Donald Trump did too, by the way. So he clearly was feeling the
heat from an audience that has become increasingly right-leaning over time. But just to give you a
sense, put B7 up on the screen of the level of meltdown from some of this, Cat Turd in particular.
But there were a lot who were saying things like this. He says, so I've never been a Joe Rogan fan.
Can't stand him.
Yes, he has a popular podcast.
I've always thought he was absolutely politically dumb.
He's great at figuring things out.
Two years after we do, what a legend.
So did it surprise me how he endorsed idiot RFK Jr. today?
LOL, no.
We're talking about the same effing idiot who endorsed Bernie Sanders, right?
He's the podcast equivalent of a dumb blonde joke.
And this came after Kat Turd, I don't know if we have these tweets, after Kat Turd previously had
been like, guess what? To all of you lefty idiots out there, Joe Rogan can say whatever he wants on
his podcast and you can just go cry about it was basically the essence of the tweet.
Dear leftists, Joe Rogan can say anything he wants on this podcast. There's nothing you can do about it but cry.
January 31st, 2022.
Yeah, a little bit of a change of tone.
I was like, yeah, first of all,
how did cat turd become a figure?
Such a thing.
Yeah, I mean, there's certain things
that cat turd has done in the past,
which I'm not gonna mention here on the air,
which, but anyways, it involves a dog.
That's all I'll say,
that people can go and look into for themselves.
My only point is, like, how exactly did figures like this become the so-called, like, mega-cultural tastemakers?
It was by, you know, sniveling at the boot of Donald Trump.
That's all he's done this entire time.
I remember he would attack Jeff Sessions.
He would attack anybody who would come out against Donald Trump.
It's like a cultish figure.
And I mean, probably too expected from a cat-turd-like individual. But the fact that he has such sway,
I mean, he was on the Tucker Carlson show, for God's sake, does tell us about his position
in the modern GOP. And so that is the problem. And clearly, attacking people like Rogan just shows Trump both on the back foot,
insecure for God knows what, for no reason. And then just making up this BS, which does tell us
again, that the more that the pettiness is about him and the less connected it is to policy,
the worse that Trump is going to perform, as we all learned in 2022.
Yeah. All right. Let's talk about Pelosi.
Yes. Okay. So there has been some just incredible interviews that Nancy Pelosi has been giving, just sort of casually savaging Joe Biden and
his political team in particular. She just put on a book, I think The Art of Power is what it's
called. Is that what it's called? Something like that. The Art of Power. Available at Costco,
by the way. Recently saw. We put in a request for her to come on, by the way. We'll see. Yeah.
I don't see it really happening, but it would be interesting. Anyway, so she's been doing a lot of interviews in the context
of this book that's coming out. And she has just been sort of, you know, spilling the tea on what
went on behind the scenes during the pressure campaign. Let's take a look at this first one
and what she reveals. I didn't accept the letter as anything but a letter.
I mean, there are some people who
were unhappy with the letter.
Let me say it again.
Some said that some people were unhappy with the letter.
I'll put it in somebody else's mouth.
Because it was a, I don't even know,
it didn't sound like Joe Biden to me. It really didn't.
Please tell us what you told President Biden to persuade him to step aside.
Well, I've never shared any conversations with a president of the United States publicly, no.
It's said that he's furious at you. Is he?
Well, he knows that I love him very much.
I understand that you don't want to own this, but it is so well reported that you were the
leader of a pressure campaign.
No, I wasn't a leader of any pressure party. Well, let me say things that I didn't do.
I didn't call one person. I didn't call one person.
I did not call one person.
I love him so much.
I think he's been really a fantastic president of the United States.
So I really wanted him to make a decision of a better campaign because they were not facing the fact of what was happening.
Just a little background.
I've never been that impressed with his political operation. Biden's operation. Yeah, I'm not. I mean, I just haven't. They won the White House. Bravo. But so my concern was this ain't happening. And we have to make a decision
for us this to happen. And the president has to make the
decision for that to happen. Let me just say, I won't say necessarily I knew what I was doing at
that time. I knew what I was doing in the whole thing, not just that. And what was that?
That Donald Trump would never set foot in the White House again.
So a lot that's interesting there.
Yeah, there's a lot going on there.
First of all, she talks about the letter.
Remember the letter that Biden put out and his team saying like,
I am in the race period of end of story and this conversation needs to stop.
And then she goes on warning Joe and says, well, we're waiting for him to decide.
And they're like, no, no, he said he just, well, we're waiting for him to decide.
So she says, I just saw it as a letter and that didn't really sound like him to me. Then she has this very mob boss, like type
language, plausible deniability when she's getting pressed on, okay, what did you do? What did you
say to him? And she says, well, I can always say I didn't call one person. I was not the leader of
pressure party. I did not call even one person.
And then in the second interview with The New Yorker, she says, to tell you the truth,
I've never been that impressed with his political campaign. He won the White House,
bravo. But he wasn't effectively, he wasn't grappling with reality that he was losing.
He was not presenting any sort of a plan or ability to turn it around and was in complete
denial.
Remember the reports from the time that she was like, get Donilon on the phone because he's not
giving the straight truth about what these numbers are. He was in denial, just like Trump is now,
about where his poll numbers actually were and what was required to turn it around. So
very, very interesting comments from her. Oh, yeah, it's absolutely fascinating. And it does
just tell us about what that pressure campaign looked like.
We also, by the way, Biden has now done more interviews than Kamala Harris since he has dropped out of the race.
He sat down with CBS News, and he talked about his decision to drop out.
Here's what he had to say.
Let's begin with your decision.
You're at your home, Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, late July with your family,
and you make this historic decision.
Tell me the story.
Look, polls we had showed that it was neck and neck race.
Would have been down to the wire.
But what happened was a number of my Democratic colleagues
in the House and Senate thought that I was going
to hurt them in the races.
And I was concerned if I stayed in the race, that would be the topic.
You'd be interviewing me about why did Nancy Pelosi say, why did so and I thought it would
be a real distraction, number one.
Number two, when I ran the first time, I thought of myself as being a transition president.
I can't even say how old I am.
It's hard for me to get out of my mouth.
But things got moving so quickly, it didn't happen.
And the combination was that I thought it was a critical issue for me still, it's not a joke, maintaining this democracy.
But I thought it was important because although it's a great honor being president,
I think I have an obligation to the country to do the most important thing we can do,
and that is we must, we must, we must defeat Trump.
So what do we see from that?
Now he claims he was a transition president,
even though he denied being that transition president a mere month ago, whenever he was still
trying to remain in the race. Now it's all about, oh, it would have been a distraction. Well,
it was a distraction whenever you're still clinging to power. What ultimately forced him out was not,
I think it was obviously Pelosi. It was the donors and it was everybody
just saying, not only have no path to victory, you will have no money to pursue it. So he held on
to his very last gasp. And let's not forget, he still continues to cling to the American
presidency. We have two segments we're about to get to where the U.S. is greenlighting a literal
invasion of Russia and where Iran is poised to begin a possible regional and maybe even global war with U.S.
military assets that are streaming there, he has his finger on the button and the nuclear codes.
It remains an enduring and terrifying position. Yeah, there's no doubt about it. And I think
reading into what he said there a little bit, he says, oh, well, the media wasn't going to stop.
And you would be asking me right now, what about what Nancy Pelosi said and other leaders?
She and others really credibly threatened that if he didn't, remember the quote, you could do this the easy way or the hard way?
She very credibly threatened that basically, like, we're not going away.
We're not letting it drop.
Every day until you go is going to be you having to deal with Pelosi came out against you,
Schumer came out against you, Hakeem Jeffries came out against you, Barack Obama came out
against you, like ratcheting up the pressure up, up, up until he was going to go.
So, you know, he came to the conclusion at long last that this was not a sustainable
position for him.
And, you know, Pelosi's comments, though, about being unimpressed with his political team,
which, by the way, I think is incredibly fair, given they had way too much self-confidence and
arrogance about their political prowess. When the 2020 primary, he didn't win. He had that handed
to him. And then in 2020, in the general election, you're running against Trump, who was doing all kinds of wild stuff and shooting himself in the foot every single day.
And you barely eke down a victory, even in what should have been really favorable circumstances.
So I think Pelosi is actually right about that.
But it clearly annoyed those who were on Biden's political team.
We had a long interview with Anita Dunn, who was one of those individuals in Politico, and she made a little like passive aggressive undercutting comment of Nancy Pelosi.
She said, we can put this up on the screen. This is C3. She said, the task in front of us,
this is Anita Dunn, is to win this election, not let Donald Trump become president again,
and to win the House of Representatives, which had certain leaders in 2022 done a slightly better job,
maybe we would control today, but we don't. Clearly a shot at Nancy Pelosi there. So that's
how people in D.C. return fires through like bitchy passive aggressive comments.
I was going to say, there's no other way to describe this entire interview as just literally
bitchy, where she's like, well, certain leaders and people, you know,
denied us the ability to get back. And that just really kneecapped. And I mean, this woman, too,
is a liar. She up until the day before Biden dropped out, was saying that they still had a
path to victory. Everything was fine. She's still claiming that. Yeah. And here she says,
if you look at the polls and what was it, the poll dials, she says. Oh, and the debate.
Actually, people liked the second half of the debate.
No, they didn't.
No, they didn't.
He was actually worse, which is weird, you know, considering how terrible he was in the beginning.
His very first answer was a national humiliation, and it was just a downswing from there.
You don't need a dial to tell you that.
And if you do have a dial that tells you otherwise, you should fire your dial provider.
Yeah, no, she was part of the team that was blowing smoke up his ass and everyone else's
and lying and denying the reality of his current state. Lying, I think, to him, but he's a grown
man. He knows how to read a poll, but giving him only the data that painted the rosiest picture.
And so that's when Pelosi comes in and is like, all right, well, let me talk to Donilon,
who is a top Biden aide as well, about what's going on, that's when the rubber hit the road of we're going to break open this bubble
that you're living in, this alternate reality in which you're doing well and in which you're
winning. So I did see a report, this will be something to keep an eye on, that
on the one hand, Kamala Harris is not good historically at building a political team.
So the fact that she could just turn on the lights in the Biden campaign, switch over the signs and roll out and be good to go is overall, I think, a tremendous advantage for her.
However, there is an awkwardness between the people like Anita Dunn, who is now on the Harris team, who were Biden people up until the very bitter end. And now the new people who have been
brought in like a David Plouffe, who also has a very senior role and who is part of Obama world.
Now, Obama world seen as very adversarial to the Biden world. So there is apparently some
internal campaign tension that they are working through right now. And all of these campaigns
are turf wars.
People are very jealous and protective over what is their sphere of influence and what is their level of power. And that's the way all of DC operates. So you can only imagine when you had
this campaign structure set up for President Biden with certain advisors who have been close
to him for a million years and who thought that they were locked in in their
spot of power. And then, oh, suddenly you got David Plouffe breathing down your neck and telling
you what to do and others like him as well. You can imagine how that would breed some tension and
resentment. As of yet, it doesn't manifest in terms of the performance. I think anyone would
have to say, just judging by the numbers and the, you know, the look of the campaign and what they've been able to pull together, et cetera,
that just from a pure political perspective, they've done a very effective job. But, you know,
that's something that is sort of brewing under the surface that could come out later as a source of
problems. I totally agree with that. And look, I think that the book right now, everyone's
disciplined and they're keeping it, you know, enthusiasm and all that. The 2025 book on how this all came to be, I cannot wait. Mark Halperin, he'll make his grand
return. He is the one who originally, he got the scoop. Remember? He was the one who had the exact
timeline for how it was all going to go down. Was he right about that stuff? He was totally correct
about the timeline for dropout and all of that. Well, Pelosi says she's going to write a book
about it. So yeah, that'll be, that'll be interesting. I'll have to buy it.
Look, I am a sucker for those inside stories for how it all came about.
And I do think it was particularly insane.
And if anything, no Biden book has sold well.
The only one that will sell is about how we finally got him to go away forever.
Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running weight-loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results.
Campers who began the summer in heavy bodies were often unrecognizable when they left.
In a society obsessed with being thin, it seemed like a miracle solution.
But behind Camp Shane's facade of happy, transformed children was a dark underworld of sinister secrets. Kids were being
pushed to their physical and emotional limits as the family that owned Shane turned a blind eye.
Nothing about that camp was right. It was really actually like a horror movie.
In this eight-episode series, we're unpacking and investigating stories of mistreatment
and re-examining the culture of fatphobia that enabled a flawed system to continue for so long. Thank you. Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast, Hell and Gone, I've learned one thing.
No town is too small for murder.
I'm Katherine Townsend.
I've received hundreds of messages from people across the country begging for help with unsolved murders.
I was calling about the murder of my husband at the cold case.
They've never found her.
And it haunts me to this day.
The murderer is still out there.
Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line,
I dig into a new case,
bringing the skills I've learned
as a journalist and private investigator
to ask the questions no one else is asking.
Police really didn't care to even try.
She was still somebody's mother.
She was still somebody's daughter.
She was still somebody's sister.
There's so many questions
that we've never gotten any kind of answers for. If you have a case you'd like me to look into,
call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145.
Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
She was a decorated veteran, a Marine who saved her comrades, a hero.
She was stoic, modest, tough, someone who inspired people.
Everyone thought they knew her, until they didn't.
I remember sitting on her couch and asking her,
is this real? Is this real? Is this real? Is this real?
I just couldn't wrap my head around what kind of person would do that to another person that was
getting treatment that was, you know, dying.
This is a story all about trust and about a woman named Sarah Kavanaugh.
I've always been told I'm a really good listener, right? And I maximized that while I was lying.
Listen to Deep Cover, The Truth About Sarah
on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Let's turn to these two very troubling foreign policy situations.
So we have a crazy situation right now in Ukraine.
Media barely even wants to report it.
The United States is currently backing a full-blown invasion of Russia.
Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.
This is from the Institute for the Study of War.
Of course, you want to color in and keep in mind their own bias,
but this is basically the best data that we have.
Russian forces have been pushed back some 30 square kilometers or so inside of their own
territory. And again, this is internationally recognized Russian territory, not territory
that they have previously claimed in the Kursk region of Russia. According to Russian officials,
some 100,000 Russian citizens have had to flee the area.
There are approximately 1 million who are there.
There are several towns that have been taken over by the Ukrainians in a so-called shock offensive.
Now, the reason why it's a shock is that according to the Ukrainians and to the US narrative,
this is supposed to be a war of defense from invasion.
So to counter their invasion, Crystal, they have decided to invade territory which they deem Russian. Now, philosophically, I don't really have a problem
with this. Of course, whenever you're in a war, you should be doing whatever you need to. The
issue is not what the Ukrainians are doing. It's the fact that U.S. NATO weaponry is being employed
to literally invade Russia. And when we flip it around and we consider what it would look like here, this is not
disputed territory.
This is internationally recognized an invasion.
And that is literally the justification for every dollar of the hundreds of billions that
we have shipped to Ukraine is to defend against this invasion.
And then just consider, can any great power nation sit there and tolerate an invasion
of its own territory?
If Mexico invaded even up until the city of Laredo or El Paso, would we tolerate that?
No, we would bomb them back to the Stone Age as the sayings go.
Now let's be fair too, this has also demonstrated the tremendous problems with the Russian military
that they haven't been able to
immediately push this back. Put this up there, for example, on the screen. The Financial Times
reports Russian reinforcements have failed to push back the Ukrainian incursion the sixth day.
President Zelensky has openly acknowledged taking the war to Russian territory. And there is no
doubt, Crystal, that this is 100% with the backing of the United States of America.
And given Joe Biden's decline that we just talked about at length, is he even in charge here?
And as Americans, can we sit here and risk a literal invasion of Russia at the same time that we have billions of dollars in military assets steaming towards the Middle East and with the Israelis openly saying Iran is going to
attack us and the United States is going to have to once again spend billions to defend Israel from that attack.
Can we really tolerate the risk of these two and the fact that they probably contribute? The Iranians say hey
we got a lot of military assets tied up over there and the Russians are saying got a lot of military assets tied up over there. That's very true. Yeah. And meanwhile, you know, the media has
basically lost interest in this story. They don't care. A little coverage of it. You know,
J.D. Vance and all of his many interviews he did yesterday. There was not, I think,
one question about. He brought it up once in a print interview. But yes, to any of the media
people, they didn't bring it up. They didn't bring it up. Like, what could be more important than we're backing the invasion of a nuclear armed superpower? And hey, how's this going to end?
Where is this leading? What's your plan? You know, if you're if you were in the White House,
what would your side of the equation be? And there's zero interest in it. You know,
people have lost interest in this story because it is a lot messier than it
was in the early days when it was just like, go Ukraine.
And Ukraine had Russia on the back foot.
Now you're in this long, grinding war of attrition.
And make no doubt about it, the fact that the Biden administration finally caved and
sent those F-16 fighter jets, that is a big part of the reason why they were able to make these gains.
You'll recall early on in this war, Biden was very resistant. He was very careful about what
he sent. There was a lot of concern about potential escalation. There was, I mean,
the idea in the beginning that you would send F-16 fighter jets to enable Ukrainian invasion
of Russia would have been considered insane.
Right.
And yet here we are, and no one's even talking about it, which is even more insane, quite frankly.
Well, we have that. So let's go and put, please, D4 up on the screen. In terms of the F-16s,
they began to arrive. Now, actually, what's even more troubling is not only the F-16s and the way
that they've gotten their hands on that. It's that all of the precision-guided munitions are very, very difficult to manufacture here in the U.S.
We have very limited stocks of them.
And, of course, what has the Biden administration done?
They've decided to greenlight shipping those precision-guided munitions for the F-16 back to Ukraine.
And so they're going to be using precision-guided weaponry from U.S. stockpiles,
which are difficult to manufacture
when we're in the middle of two global configurations, which possibly, and I wouldn't say likely,
but possibly, that US forces could get themselves into.
We also literally have Zelensky openly acknowledging this.
D3, please.
Where for days, and usually when the Ukrainians pull some terrorist attack or whatever in
Russia, they're like, oh, what a tragedy.
You know, it's crazy that somebody would do that.
They're just openly saying it.
In his video address that was late on Saturday, he said Ukrainian military is pushing a war onto the aggressor territory.
Now, again, I want to say philosophically, I don't care about this.
It is normal, actually, to try and hit your enemy wherever they are and to throw them off balance. But when it's America's role, and we're the ones who are funding all of this,
and we are the ones who experience any potential blowback, then that's a real issue.
We also, shockingly enough, yes, it's true the Ukrainians can pull this off. And then this
morning in the Wall Street Journal, they talk about how the Ukrainian commander is begging for
more troops. They have no idea what to do. They've had six days worth of success. And now they're
like, do we hold this territory? What do we do with this territory? Now we have to pull stuff
away from previous defensive fronts. Over here, their own military leadership has no idea what to
do with these gains. So yeah, it's been a good PR stunt. Can you hold it? Are you now going to
annex it into Ukraine? I mean, imagine the hypocrisy and the sheer insanity of bargaining
and claiming that your territory needs to be given back to you, but then occupying
internationally recognized territory and swapping it. Now, that's a very different moral narrative,
isn't it? Then saying, well, we're just fighting back against the people who have invaded our country.
Yeah.
And that's the problem, you know, is that the longer this drags on, there's the moral
ambiguity increases, the so-called justness of their cause decreases, their overall like
ability to even stand this without literally tens of billions of dollars a month having
to flow there in Western aid.
It shows us that this cannot go on forever. And we all know how it's going to end. And so they refused to end it
currently. We refused, frankly, to responsibly end it. And we bear the ultimate risk for anything
going wrong. And that's a good question. I mean, this has been, you know, for Ukraine,
it's been a real show of force. It has exposed, as you said, real weaknesses on the Russian side
that they haven't been able to repel these forces on their own territory.
Obviously, the Ukrainians are trying to demonstrate that the entry of the F-16s into this conflict
is a real game changer for them.
They also just called up a bunch more men and are trying to constitute 15 new battalions
that they also want to use to try to bolster the manpower issues that remain a big problem
for them.
The ammunition issues remain a big problem for them. They're still taking on a lot of water in
eastern Ukraine. The most hopeful thing you could say about this, no one really understands or knows
what their strategy is, except for them. Maybe even the US doesn't know because they seem to
keep a lot of things from us. The most hopeful thing you could say is, well, maybe they're
trying to strengthen their hand for potential talks. Maybe that's what the play is here. And if so, OK, but let's have some indication
from our leaders what we think, where we think this should lead, where we think this is going,
since we are so deeply intertwined with the Ukrainian cause and with this offensive.
And, you know, if this is to strengthen the hand for potential talks,
we need to start laying the groundwork also for what a, not maybe a just resolution of this outcome, but a reasonable resolution to this outcome that everyone could be angry about,
but ultimately live with, might look like. Because when you just have the continuing
narrative from Zelensky and from us that there's not going to be any territory lost and it's all or nothing and we're in it forever, then it's very difficult to turn around and come
to the table and have talks and try to come to some sort of a resolution ultimately.
Absolutely. Very true. All right, let's get to Iran.
Yeah. So there's a lot going on here. Obviously, you'll recall we still have,
we're still awaiting whatever the Iranian response is going to be to that Israeli
provocation of an assassination on Iranian soil the day before the new president was inaugurated.
Nonetheless, let's put this up on the screen. This is Barack Ravid, who's close both with the
D.C. establishment and with the Israeli establishment. He says the updated assessment
of the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and may do within days even before the August 15th hostage deal talks per two sources.
We also have some indications from the Iranian side that maybe potentially are in the other direction.
Israel is really bracing for a massive offensive here. And the U.S., judging by the military assets that we are rushing into the
region, are also bracing for a massive retaliation from Iran. Here's what Iran had to say about it.
In part, we can put this up on the screen. They said on Saturday they want to avoid negatively
impacting Gaza ceasefire talks. This is E2, guys. With its anticipated retaliation,
achieving a permanent ceasefire in Gaza remains a priority, Iran's permanent mission to the UN
said in a statement. It also said any agreement accepted by Hamas would be acceptable to Iran as
well. The statement condemned Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran as a, quote,
violation of Iranian national security and sovereignty. Iran emphasized its right to self-defense,
but stressed it hopes its response would not impede the ongoing ceasefire efforts.
Now, as far as those ceasefire efforts go, Sagar, don't appear to be going that well.
Because, I mean, Bibi Netanyahu, it's long been clear him and his government don't have an
interest. They don't want it. They don't want to cease fire.
They've played all these games of pretending like they're interested, but then throwing up some obstacle at the last minute.
And you have new reports that maybe the Biden administration can be a little bit tougher on them, but no indication that we're going to actually do the things we need to do, which is to say, listen, you're on your own.
We're cutting off weapon shipments, etc.
I could put this up on the screen. Diplomatic sources told Haaretz that it has been clarified to Netanyahu that the Biden administration is reaching the point where
his behavior would result in the White House publicly accusing him of preventing the release
of the hostages. Up till now, the White House has only blamed Hamas for any problems in the
ceasefire talks. Now, allegedly, they're saying, well, we'll blame you and Tomas.
It's August 12th. Who cares at this point?
And that's the thing is like, you know, we've how many of these, oh, they're upset behind the scenes and they're being tougher.
And he's really going to be tough this time before people realize that this is also all a joke.
This is all nonsense posturing. And Bibi Netanyahu obviously does not care what
Joe Biden thinks or says of him without actually applying any real pressure using the mechanisms
of power that we have. So I mean, this is all ridiculous. And then the last piece I'll put up
here on Get Your Folsom Response Saga is Hamas has basically said, listen, we're done playing
games here. We see the game that you're playing here
of pretending to do serious negotiations and just using this to throw up new obstacles and walk
away from any potential deal. So in part, what they said is, in light of this amount of concern
and responsibility towards our people and their interests, the movement calls them mediators to
submit a plan to implement what they presented to the movement and approved on July 2nd, based on Biden's vision,
the Security Council resolution to oblige the occupation to do so instead of going to more
rounds of negotiations or new proposals that provide cover for the occupation's aggression
and give it more time to perpetuate the war of genocide against our people. And remember,
the guy that Israel assassinated, Ismail Haniyeh was the political leader of Hamas. And in the context
of Hamas was more of a deal maker, more of a moderate. Now you have Yahya Sinwar, who was
the architect of the October 7th attacks, who is the lead voice and the lead negotiator here. And
he is much more hardline, which by the way, serves Bibi Netanyahu too, because he doesn't want a
ceasefire deal. I was going to bring that up. I also, I mean, what I am just so terrified right now is
that Lloyd Austin and the Israelis spoke yesterday. The USS Abraham Lincoln is accelerating right now
to go to the Middle East as fast as possible. Two U.S. missile, I believe guided missile
destroyers are headed to the Eastern Mediterranean. The Hezbollah yesterday penetrated Iron Dome.
There's so many things happening, it's almost too much to put in the show.
Yeah, that's true.
But are we all going to ignore northern Israel, the so-called incredible Iron Dome?
Almost every rocket penetrated the Iron Dome and was able to hit its target.
A preview of what a real general war with Hezbollah would look like.
Iran, according to the Israelis,
says that they are preparing a, quote, large-scale attack.
Now, as we all know, the Israeli military on its own is completely incapable of repelling this.
It will take, again, Jordan, Saudi Arabia,
the United States, and the UK, and France,
all to have to step in and to shoot down
all these missiles on Israel's behalf.
And look, at a certain point, I don't even necessarily have a problem with that.
As long as we're also trying to constrain Israeli action on the other side, that would lead to it.
That keeps drawing us in very intentionally, too.
If we are lessening tension and lessening the likelihood of regional war on both sides, I have no problem.
Cool. You know, let's shoot it down here and then tell Israel, it's like, hey guys, you know,
you know, you got to cut this out. But to have it second time now in the span of just several months,
we know where the action is coming from. And I continue to say this, if the Israelis did not
have total confidence that we would shoot down the stuff for them, they would never dream in a
million years of blowing somebody up in the middle of Tehran like this and basically openly cheering about it.
Because if Hezbollah, a paramilitary organization, can penetrate Iron Dome, what could Iran do
to them?
You know, it's like this is where the concept of strategic balance is so important and why
when you put your hand so far on one side and then you basically take it off on the
other, that's what actually increases the likelihood of escalation. Well, and here's the thing too. Last time it
appears Iran basically coordinated their retaliation with us. They wanted it to look big,
but be capable for us to be able to deal with it and the Israelis and Jordan at all.
And for it to not really inflict much, if any, damage on Israel.
Is that the case this time? I mean, the Israelis may be overestimating our capabilities to deal
with this massive issue. That's exactly right. Massive issue that they have created for themselves.
And while this is all going on, we can never lose sight of what is happening on the ground
in Gaza, where the horror absolutely continues. Now, it's worth remembering, both with this assassination in Tehran and also
the assassination in Beirut and Lebanon, Israelis were able to be really very precise, very, very
precise. Yet, we now have another horror unfolding. We could just run this as VO guys so I can talk over it. We have a school that was hit by the Israelis using massive munitions, huge bombs that just killed around 100 people, according to reports on the ground.
This was a school in Gaza City where displaced Palestinians were sheltering.
And it's just an absolute horror.
Now, the Israelis are claiming, we can put this up on the screen. The Israelis are claiming,
oh, of course, what else? This was Hamas was sheltering here. This was Palestinian Islamic
Jihad that was sheltering here. They put out a list of 19 supposed militants that were among
the dead. However, this is from a human rights organization.
They went and they looked, okay, well, who are these people actually? So far of these supposed
eliminated terrorists in this school massacre, three had already been killed before, so you can't
kill them twice. Three, another three, were elderly civilians, no military ties, one a school principal,
a deputy mayor, and a university professor.
Six are absolute civilians.
Some were even opposed to Hamas, and they're continuing to verify the remaining names.
But let me be clear.
Even if this wasn't a lie and they actually did kill 19 militants in this strike. You cannot just bomb a school where Palestinian civilians, women, children,
who were the majority of the dead, are sheltering. That is not acceptable. That is a war crime,
even if Hamas is, quote unquote, using them as human shields. So this is what continues.
If you look at the map saga of, I mean, Gaza has just been decimated. Like that was clearly the goal to
make it so there was complete annihilation, nothing to go back to. And they may have not
destroyed Hamas, but that goal they have surely accomplished. Well, internationally too. It's just
one of those where, again, when the Biden people are like, oh, we are going to call you out. It's
like, so what? Who cares at this point? You know, in terms of it's like who in America actually would
even care if they start blaming them now? You had leverage many, many months ago. You decided not to
use it now. And then the other very smart thing that Bibi has done from his own political calculus
is he just keeps ratcheting things up a little bit. You know, everything is a step forward.
What can I get away with here? What can I get away with here? He got us to spend a billion
bucks in a single night to shoot down missiles for Iran. Now he's going to get us to do it again.
Let's hope it works, that it doesn't go even further. But what's going to happen next time?
And then the more that you focus away from Gaza, the more that you change the conversation here,
then it becomes about Israel's existentialism, about whether they're going to get drawn into a regional war. And the next thing you
know, U.S. troops are the ones who are involved and who are paying the price. And that was the
plan literally all along. So, you know, we have enabled a lot of this and we are marching
dangerous and dangerously close to even more embroiling. And, you know, to talk about Joe
Biden, I mean, this is, forget age,
this is the actual legacy, is look at how on the brink the world is right now. That's correct.
And how dangerous things are for America. If we had had any sort of realism at all,
I mean, we wouldn't be in this situation. And, you know, the entire foreign policy elite cheers it on.
I think we're in a very dangerous situation. I mean, I've been saying that
for 10 months, and that's what people make fun of. But you only have to be right once to actually
acknowledge some of this happening. And even if it doesn't lead to a war, was it worth the hundreds
of billions that we have spent on this, not to mention the human toll that has happened as well?
And that's just Israel and Ukraine. Put those two things together. Disaster.
Absolutely sick. All right, let's go ahead and Ukraine. Put those two things together. Disaster. Absolutely sick.
All right, let's go ahead and get to Ken Klippenstein
standing by to talk about this hacking of the Trump campaign.
Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running
weight-loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results.
Campers who began the summer in heavy bodies
were often unrecognizable when they left.
In a society obsessed with being thin, it seemed like a miracle solution. But behind Camp Shane's
facade of happy, transformed children was a dark underworld of sinister secrets. Kids were being
pushed to their physical and emotional limits as the family that owned Shane turned a blind eye.
Nothing about that camp was right.
It was really actually
like a horror movie.
In this eight-episode series,
we're unpacking and investigating
stories of mistreatment
and reexamining the culture
of fatphobia
that enabled a flawed system
to continue for so long.
You can listen to all episodes
of Camp Shame
one week early
and totally ad-free on
iHeart True Crime Plus. So don't wait. Head to Apple Podcasts and subscribe today.
Over the past six years of making my true crime podcast hell and gone,
I've learned one thing. No town is too small for murder. I'm Katherine Townsend. I've received
hundreds of messages from people
across the country begging for help with unsolved murders. I was calling about the murder of my
husband. It's a cold case. They've never found her. And it haunts me to this day. The murderer
is still out there. Every week on Hell and Gone Murder Line, I dig into a new case, bringing the
skills I've learned as a journalist and private investigator to ask the questions no one else is asking.
Police really didn't care to even try.
She was still somebody's mother.
She was still somebody's daughter.
She was still somebody's sister.
There's so many questions that we've never gotten any kind of answers for.
If you have a case you'd like me to look into,
call the Hell and Gone Murder Line at 678-744-6145.
Listen to Hell and Gone Murder Line on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
She was a decorated veteran, a Marine who saved her comrades, a hero.
She was stoic, modest, tough. Someone who inspired people.
Everyone thought they knew her.
Until they didn't.
I remember sitting on her couch and asking her,
is this real? Is this real? Is this real? Is this real?
I just couldn't wrap my head around what kind of person would do that
to another person that was getting treatment, that was, you know, dying?
This is a story all about trust and about a woman named Sarah Kavanaugh.
I've always been told I'm a really good listener, right?
And I maximized that while I was lying.
Listen to Deep Cover The Truth About Sarah on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
So apparently, as I mentioned before, the Trump campaign has been hacked.
A number of news outlets received a dossier of sorts on J.D. Vance that was apparently internal to the campaign when they were vetting him, looking at what his strengths and weaknesses were.
There is some question there.
The campaign is asserting that this was Iran.
Ken Klippenstein, independent journalist and author of the Ken Klippenstein sub stack that
you guys should all subscribe to, is here to take a look at all of these claims and
counterclaims.
Great to see you, Ken.
Good to see you, dude.
Hey, guys.
Good to be back.
All right.
So break down for us.
What exactly do we know about what happened here?
Really, all we know is what Microsoft has alleged. And of course, they have their own internal information. And in a report posted to their website on Friday, they described a
hacking attempt into a presidential campaign, but they didn't say which one. And so the author of that post, which I find is interesting,
nobody really went into his background, Clint Watts.
He's a former FBI special agent.
I knew who he was because I've reported on him before.
Yeah, he's a commentator on, he was a commentator on MSNBC.
He's been a longtime commentator and expert on foreign influence efforts. And I, you know, in 2017, after the 2016
Russian-led interference efforts into the election then, he described, sometimes in hyperbolic terms,
those efforts calling at one point the Russian efforts in the past several years, the most
effective in history, which I thought was a little bit overstating it.
And, you know, I looked into that question
and, you know, Rand put out an interesting report
suggesting that they were not actually
particularly well organized.
They were not particularly effective.
So, you know, I don't want to denigrate him,
but, you know, he's somebody who is an expert
on foreign influence and that's what he tends to see.
And so in the context of that Microsoft report
that he authored, that's definitely
concerns worth looking at. But what was astonishing to me is neither the FBI nor the Director of
National Intelligence has put out a statement on any of this. So really all we have to go on
is that vague report by Microsoft, which again has declined to identify who it was.
There was a report in the Washington Post sourced to an anonymous source
of Ellen Nakashima's
that said that it was a reference
to the Trump campaign.
But we don't know
if that's the same thing
as the leaked information.
One second, Ken.
Can we take a step back, though,
and just maybe explain to people
what happened?
Is that this leaked dossier
has come to reporters.
People are claiming it is Iran.
Now, why is it unusual,
like you just said, for the DNI, the FBI, and others to have not offered comment with such
a public story? Yeah, so in a situation like this, going back months now, the DNI said,
we are going to prioritize declassifying and releasing information proactively to head off
foreign interference efforts. And for them to, several days into this, not even say, we're looking at it,
we're gonna have something for you,
just no comment at all from the DNI.
We have no comment from the FBI.
Either they're not doing very good
at what they said that they were gonna do,
which was to release information to the public
as quickly as they can, or they don't have anything.
And that essentially is the question.
And I was just about to say a moment ago,
the New York Times yesterday, David Sanger, one of the national security correspondents,
said that it's not clear if this was from a hack or a leak internal to the campaign. And I think
that's a responsible way to frame this. Now, there's plenty of reason to think that it was
the Iranians. I mean, to think that they had motive, rather, because, you know, Trump, very
hawkish on Iran, theatrically so at times, posting a Game of Thrones at one point, a spoof of him saying sanctions are coming.
And, of course, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the reimposition of sanctions, the withdrawal from the Iran deal.
So all that to say they have the motive, but we don't yet know that they were actually the ones that carried it out.
And the press reporting has been extremely irresponsible in this regard. I mean, we're coming into
what could be this week
an Iranian military retaliation
for the assassination of Iran
by Israel of the political leader of Hamas.
And they're just running with this thing
without any underlying proof
or even evidence
beyond just Microsoft's vague statement,
which again, did not provide
any specifics to know that this was even the same event. The ironies here, obviously, are very rich
when you consider the 2016 Russian hacking and release of information from internal to the
Clinton campaign and Trump, you know, going out and encouraging that Russia, if you're listening,
et cetera, et cetera. Now the shoe is very much on the other foot, assuming it is Iran, which, as you say, it's, you know, not entirely clear that it is at this point.
So a Trump campaign spokesman, Stephen Chung, said any media or news outlet reprinting documents or internal communications are doing the bidding of America's enemies and doing exactly what they want. I mean, that sounds almost
identical to the language that the Clinton campaign and their supporters used back in 2016
to try unsuccessfully to get the media not to report on the contents of those leaks.
Yeah, the irony here seems to be appreciated by everyone except the Trump campaign.
There's just no awareness at all of it. And I want
to point out one interesting thing about that spokesperson. It's been reported that he was
asked, have you been in touch with Microsoft? And he declined to say repeatedly to multiple outlets.
So there is a lack of evidence here. And in fact, if you look at some of the subsequent
reporting, they described the campaign having been aware of a breach several weeks ago,
but that internally in their discussions, they didn't know who it was. So I think there's a
very good chance that they just don't know and that this is speculation. Now, none of that is
to say that at some point in the future, we might find out that we wouldn't find out that it was
Iran. But what seems very clear is that they just don't know.
And I haven't seen any contravening evidence
to suggest that their own understanding of it
has changed in the last several days.
Yeah, I mean, looking, I was just reading as well,
like you said, even others are,
media outlets are saying some have accused Iran,
but nobody is definitively saying.
The White House has not yet
released a statement, which it seems likely that it would given the previous positioning, Ken.
I mean, there's been some speculation that, oh, well, if it was, they wouldn't want to
acknowledge it. But that doesn't seem true to me, given how, you know, how outraged they were over
Russian hacks and how big a deal they have made about election threats and hacking and all of
that. What's your read on the situation?
I mean, this is a huge budget priority.
And I've reported on the emergence of all of these counter disinformation,
counter foreign influence offices throughout the federal government,
in the Department of Defense, in the Department of Homeland Security, within the DOJ.
They have thrown so much money at this.
And for us to be several days into this
and for them not even to say,
we're looking at it,
we're working on something,
we're going to have something,
is outrageous.
What are we paying these people for?
They won't even come out and say,
we're looking at...
The FBI did acknowledge
that they've seen the media reporting,
so they know about this.
It's on their radar.
But they won't give us anything.
And I understand in the cyber world,
they have a saying,
attribution is difficult. It's hard to know who did what. I mean in the cyber world, they have a saying, attribution is difficult.
It's hard to know who did what.
I mean, you might see that there was a breach,
but it could be a party trying to look like another party.
It could be an independent actor.
These questions are not simple technical questions.
So I understand that it might take time,
but they have not provided any indication
that they're working on it
or that an answer is forthcoming,
which leads me to wonder if there is one or if the agencies are just doing a poor job of communicating. And again,
time that's really important geopolitically for them to be clear about what's happening with
regard to Iran. I mean, the military is repositioning itself to prepare to protect
Israel and respond to an attack. I mean, this couldn't come at a worse time geopolitically in terms of the conflict. One of the things that's been curious to me is while we know that
the hack occurred and we even know, you know, reportedly among the hacked materials was a
document that the Trump campaign has confirmed was authentic, that was effectively the vetting
document of J.D. Vance that explored his strengths, weaknesses, etc.
As Donald Trump was considering adding him to the ticket.
Yet none of these outlets that receive these materials have actually reported on the contents of the materials.
Now, they did, and in my opinion, appropriately so, when it was 2016 and with regards to Hillary Clinton.
Because you're a journalist, you get information from all kinds of sketchy sources.
If it's newsworthy, it's newsworthy.
It doesn't matter if it was, you know,
hacked document or not.
If it's newsworthy, you report on it.
So what do you make of the fact
that none of these outlets, at least last I checked,
have actually reported out anything
on the contents of what they received?
You have seen all these reporters
falling all over themselves to say,
I hope we learn the lessons of 2016 with all these kind of very, you know, self-aggrandizing accounts of how
much we've learned. And the fact that nobody's reporting on it, that was not the lesson to learn.
The lesson to learn was report on those things, I agree with you, with the context of where it's
coming from, if you don't know where it's coming from, if it's coming from the Russians or whatever, so that the public can make its own determination. I think what we have is a very kind
of patronizing attitude on the part of the press that, oh, the public, you know, they're not mature
enough to be able to handle this. Yes, they can. Just give them the explanation that there is,
you know, a possibility. Maybe it's plausible. Maybe it's even probable that the Iranians were
behind it. And let them come to their own conclusions. And I think what this
shows us more than anything is that this attempt to try to, you know, collapse, you know, Trump is
the favored candidate of the foreign, or maybe, but the truth is all sorts of parties are angling
to try to get what they want out of any election. And in the end, I think it might be kind of a wash
and that this should encourage us to stop just, you know, treating everything as, oh, who's the foreign preferred candidate?
Because the truth is, there's good reason to believe the Iranians.
And in fact, the DNI has given indication that the Iranians would prefer Biden to be president.
On the other hand, there's good evidence that the Russians prefer Trump to be president.
So maybe this neurosis about worrying about every single, you know, which foreign party approves of what, I mean, everyone is pushing for their interests in every
direction. And so I hope that this is a reminder to people of that.
I couldn't agree more. Iran, if you're listening, I will publish anything.
As long as it's true, I don't care where it comes from.
Yeah, true and newsworthy, then, you know, let's have it.
I care less.
Let's know what's in it, you know?
And I know they've, I think the Trump campaign has said what's in the J.D. Vance vetting document is, by and large, public information.
It probably is.
But it's still newsworthy to know what they were assessing, what they were concerned about, how they thought about they could shore up his weaknesses, how they were evaluating him, you know, versus other candidates, et cetera. Obviously that's
news. That would be newsworthy if it came out about Tim Walz from the Harris campaign, certainly.
So obviously it has a news value. And I'm actually kind of surprised, given the precedent that was
set back in 2016, that no one has said a word about it. And we know they've had these documents
for a number of weeks. So the time is not really, you know, an excuse at this point. Absolutely. All right, Ken, thank you so much for joining,
man. We appreciate you. Great to see you, Ken. Thanks, guys. All right. We'll see you guys later.
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