Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 8/23/23 DEBATE SPECIAL: Krystal and Saagar Predictions

Episode Date: August 23, 2023

DEBATE SPECIAL DISCOUNT: 10% OFF Yearly Memberships available until the end of tonight's Debate at www.breakingpoints.com Get access to full episodes, uncut, and 1 hour early right in your inbox or Spotify.Krystal and Saagar bring you a Debate Special preview of the first GOP 2024 Primary Debates. We breakdown all the candidates appearing on stage, analyze their strategies, look at past defining moments in presidential debates, and Krystal and Saagar give their predictions for the Winners and Losers.To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.supercast.com/Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to our very special debate special. Yes. It's a very creative name that we have come up with. Extra special. That's why there are two specials. Extra special. The Republican presidential debate is not that far away. We thought we would do a big thing here in our brand new studio.

Thank you to our premium subscribers for helping us build it in order to preview not only what we think is going to happen, but kind of prepare you with the strategies, the facts, who's going to be on the stage, what we think is going to play out, and just a good primer for everybody going into it. Just quickly beforehand, if you're joining us, we have a special discount on our yearly membership, 10% off, that you can join anytime between now and the actual debate. That'll be available in the link of the video of this description or available on the podcast player. But Crystal, how do you think that we should think about said debate before we go into it? How should the people out there be preparing themselves? Yeah, so we've got you covered from all angles. We want to start here with the basics of just literally who is going to be on the stage, who has qualified, who's going to be on the stage

for this first debate, which is being hosted by Fox News. Let's go ahead and throw our graphic up on the screen where we can reveal these are the faces of the individuals who qualified. Now, one very important caveat here, former President Trump obviously has said he will not participate in debates, leaving it open that he is unlikely to participate in any of the debates. So the eight candidates who actually qualified

are Trump, DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, and Doug Burgum. So there were a few extras who sort of like claimed they qualified, but the RNC was like, we don't think you're going to qualify. None of those individuals are going to be on the stage. Let's just go based on the polling tier by tier, who's going to be up there, because maybe some of you don't know all of these individuals. A few of them we've actually interviewed here, quite interestingly. Let's put up what is considered, based on the polling again, the sort of top tier of contenders.

So for this one, we obviously have Governor Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida. He is right now, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, sitting at 14.6 percent. Next up, we have Vivek Ramaswamy, who really has been making some moves in the primary. He is a businessman and also an author. He is sitting at 7.1%. And next down the list, we have the former vice president, Mike Pence, who is at 4.3%. The next level, what we're calling kind of the mid-tier here, again, just based on what their polls are sitting at today at the national level, we have in this tier Nikki Haley. She is the former governor of South Carolina and also served in the Trump administration. She is at 3.3%. Roughly the same place we have Chris Christie. He is at 3.1%. He, of course, is the former governor

of New Jersey and a very outspoken Trump critic who is likely to make things interesting on the stage. And we also have Senator Tim Scott, a senator from South Carolina, who a lot of donor and media types have been excited about recently. He is sitting nationally at 3%, although I will say I think he is a little bit higher in the polls in terms of Iowa and New Hampshire in particular. And then rounding out the field and the lowest tier in terms of their national polling, we have Asa Hutchinson, who Trump calls Ada for certain reasons. He is former governor of Arkansas. He's at 0.9%.

Doug Burgum, current governor of North Dakota. He is at 0.5%. We did have an opportunity to interview both of these gentlemen, which we appreciated. And Doug Burgum managed to get on the stage using what I guess you would call an innovative strategy of basically paying people to donate a small amount back to him. But it worked out for him. He's going to be there. Every one dollar, you get 20. Yeah, listen, it actually did work out for him. There are a lot of people who did similar schemes that it didn't work out. We got some of those folks. Let's go

ahead and put that up there on the screen. Unfortunately, Larry Elder, he currently says he's actually going to be suing the RNC because he claims that he did debate. Oh, really? Businessman Perry Johnson, despite throwing as much money as he possibly could at Newsmax to try and qualify, even though he did reach the 40,000 qualified donors, he didn't appear to reach the polling metrics. Will Hurd, the former congressman from Texas and mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez, all four actually, save for Hurd, had claimed at least in some way that they had qualified for the debate. But that's why we didn't really find out until we got the

official results from the RNC. The big question now is, now that you know who these individuals are, is does this debate matter? And we thought we would approach it from two angles, from one universe where it does. In this universe where it does, why does it matter? And one interesting new poll that came out of Iowa and New Hampshire, and we've talked about this a lot, Crystal, here on the show, that the early states matter disproportionately here because the only way that if a vague Ramaswamy, a Ron DeSantis, a Chris Christie, a Tim Scott

is able to break out is they have to win Iowa or shore a very good showing, and they have to win New Hampshire, those two that gives us a ton of media momentum heading into Nevada and then into South Carolina, into Super Tuesday and then the Florida primary. So in that lane, Steve Kornacki over at MSNBC, who does a fantastic job, actually pointed something out that we want to show all of you. Let's go ahead and put this up there. He shows that, quote, stipulating Trump is the favorite to win the GOP nomination, there does seem to be a potential path for some of his rivals. Start with our new Iowa poll. Trump is up by 23 points,

but DeSantis actually has the highest favorability rating, and Scott has the highest favorability to unfavorability rating. Broad goodwill gives DeSantis and Scott the opportunity to grow their support. It's a big if, but if one could consolidate non-Trump support, they would have a chance at winning the state. Of course, Trump lost Iowa in 16. He bounced back in New Hampshire. He was fine, but there's potential differences here.

In 16, Iowa was a three-way race with Cruz and Trump and Rubio. What if in 24, there's a clear separation between the top two and all of the others? So I think that is the scenario that we have to look at this. That's the scenario where this debate matters. It's who's the alternative? Who is the number one alternative?

Nobody else matters. And that is why Chris Christie, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy, it's going to be a battle royale between those three. They need to be the alternative to Trump. And I think for several reasons, I don't think Christie can do that because it doesn't have Trump appeal. I think DeSantis and Ramaswamy are really the only two who could. Tim Scott is a dark horse. I just don't think he's really a fighter whenever it comes to the debates. We'll get to some of that in the winners and the losers. Yeah. And there was an op-ed in the New York Times, interestingly,

from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who was also making a similar case of, listen, if you really want to defeat Trump, all of y'all except for one person are going to have to drop out and everybody's going to have to consolidate behind one candidate. It's the same thing they said ultimately in 2016, you know, in the last ditch phase to try to come up with some candidate other than Trump. It was the same idea then. Now, Democrats did actually execute this strategy very successfully in 2020 in order to, you know, everybody dropped out and coalesced behind the former vice president, Joe Biden. And that did work to overcome the momentum that Bernie Sanders had at that time and what looked to be, you know, an inevitability coming out of Nevada. So at least on the Democratic side, we have seen this strategy work.

Listen, do I think that this is likely to happen? No. But I do think it's important to hold open the possibility that we don't know what's going to happen with Trump. He's in all kinds of legal trouble. He's a very unpredictable character to begin with. So you just can't predict the future. And so all of these guys are basically angling to be the number one alternative to Trump. Ron DeSantis had his memo posted online by his super PAC of his debate strategy. We talked about this some in the show. It's very revealing because he takes a very cautious approach to going after Trump. But he reveals, his super PAC reveals, that he needs to take a, quote, hammer to Vivek Ramaswamy because he sees him as his primary rival

to be that top Trump alternative. I expect there'll be a lot of fireworks there because not only are they both fighting to position themselves as, like, the top alternative to Trump, they have some ideological disputes as well, in particular on foreign policy. Vivek has been unafraid also of accusing Ron DeSantis of basically being a super PAC puppet.

So that could get interesting. Chris Christie is very politically talented. He's not gonna be the nominee. He doesn't have himself ideologically positioned where the Republican base would want him to be. But he also will mix things up, is unafraid. Famously remember he like sort of ended Marco Rubio, torpedoed him on behalf of Trump back in 2016. So he has the chops to be able to create those sorts of moments.

So that creates some intrigue and drama here as well. But, you know, part of, from a substantive perspective, what I'm looking to see is there are some divides that have actually emerged between these candidates in terms of policy. I think foreign policy is the most obvious example, but also in terms of the really traditional Reagan conservative type economic policy and people who are at least flirting with the more populist economics.

And I'd love to see some of that drawn out in these debates. Listen, I would love that too. I have no illusions, especially whenever we're talking about Fox News. Fox News, in my experience, has some of the worst questions whenever it comes to debates. And the reason is simple. Their focus on horse race stuff, which I think is dumb at a presidential debate because it's like, you're already here. They're like, you're doing below in the polls. What's your plan? I think it's fine when you're sitting down for an interview,

but at a debate with such limited amount of time, you have to get to the issue. So here are some things that I need to see or would love to see. Ukraine. I want a huge debate on Ukraine because Chris Christie is basically called DeSantis, the Trump and Vivek position as, quote unquote, Neville Chamberlain. We need to have a serious clash of wills there between Chris Christie, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, who are on the establishment side. And then the more restrictionist side, DeSantis somewhere in the middle, specifically with Vivek Ramaswamy and let them go at it. We also need to see entitlements.

We should note, I asked Ramaswamy about entitlements. He got a little bit squirrely. Ron DeSantis has really never addressed his position on the future of entitlements and social security. I want to see that debate. Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, we talked with all of them. They're definitely on the side of cutting. Okay, great. I also want to see Obamacare. I know nobody cares about this, but healthcare is always a huge part of the debate. Do we still sign on the

2015 plan, the 2020 vote that, or sorry, the 2017 vote on Obamacare, which some of the senators on the stage voted for or supported while they were in the Trump administration? Do we still support the repeal and replace plan that came in in that place? So I know these are nerdy questions, but I think they still are going to matter in terms of the record. And then also we're going to expect, and there's no way that this won't happen, endless numbers of questions about Trump and the legal questions. And so from a political perspective, who can come out, and this is the most advantageous, who will come out? And this is the most advantageous. Who will come out as the best defender of Trump? Who will be the best inditer of the FBI and the DOJ and Biden? I don't think Biden, I don't want to hear routine questions about disagreements

with Biden. Obviously, they disagree with Biden. They're running against him. It has to be about disagreements between themselves. But I don't expect Fox to do any of this because they almost always do softballs. They never do a particularly good job of actually distinguishing the real areas that these gentlemen do disagree on substantive policy. It's going to be horse race, Trump, and then Biden. Stupid questions. I hope, though, that I'm wrong. I think you could see some Ukraine questions because there's been enough tension between the candidates to make that conflict interesting from a Fox News ratings perspective. And you also had Nikki Haley this week taking shots at Vivek Ramaswamy over aid to Israel. So that's another area where you could imagine, just out

of the sheer nature of loving to see conflict, perhaps they go in that direction as well. But you're absolutely right that, first of all, I want to make sure to say really clearly, it's a disgrace that Trump is not coming to this debate. It is fully contemptful of the American people. It's fully contemptful of the Republican base. It is taking their vote for granted. I think it's disgusting that he's not going to be there and participate. I think it's disgusting that Joe Biden has no intention of debating his opponents. And I don't want to let that go without being, let this go without that being said. Trump is obviously going to be the big elephant in the room. And you have a range of approaches among these candidates in terms of how they actually deal with Trump. Doug Burgum is willing

to be a little bit critical of him. Asa Hutchinson is willing to be significantly critical of him. And then Chris Christie obviously is willing to go all the way in and be extremely critical of Trump. And then the people who frankly have a more serious chance of being his top alternative are more or less sick of hands who have variously done everything they can to possibly defend him. And I understand it from a political perspective, even though I think it lacks moral courage. Because, listen, it's not an accident that the top alternatives, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, and with Vivek being the person who's rising the fastest in the polls right now, have been variously committed to defending Trump against the core accusations against him. So seeing how they handle all of that, how much of the questioning focuses on Donald Trump, how much he just hangs over this whole thing is going to be another piece to watch for coming out of this. Yeah, no, I think you're right. I mean, look, I agree. I think Trump should

show up. I don't think he should just take people for granted. But let's be honest. We've all looked at the polls here. People trust Trump more than they literally trust their religious leaders. We just did a hilarious segment on that on our Monday show. It's like Republican voters trust Trump more than their friends and family and then their pastors slash God. So in that, like he can afford to, he said it himself. I could shoot somebody on fifth Avenue and people would still vote for me. I think he's right. Let me make the case though that I basically agree that it's probably the right strategy. As much as I hate it and think it's disgusting, it's probably the right strategy. But I will say that it does put Trump in the position of doing something very uncharacteristic,

which is giving someone else the opportunity to grab the spotlight. We're going to talk about Trump is doing this Tucker Carlson interview on Twitter. That's just not going to get as many eyeballs as a primetime major party debate. It's just not. And we've heard from Trump a million times. He's not going to can't say anything all that new. That's going to be all that different from what he said before. So many more people are going to be interested in the inherent show and conflict that is a major party primary debate. So he does create an opening for someone else to grab the spotlight, make a name for themselves, dominate the news cycle, etc. And Politico put together a piece trying to argue the case that debates actually do matter and they actually have shifted races significantly. And in fact, primary races, the debates are what have primarily moved the numbers in terms of

Democrat and Republican primary races. So let's go and put this up on the screen from Politico. They say why Trump might regret passing on the first debate. They say as presidential primaries have become more national in scope, debates have arguably been all that has really mattered in the run-up to the early states. Candidates like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ben Carson, and Pete Buttigieg surged in the polls after strong showings, and Fred Thompson, Rick Perry, and Beto O'Rourke stand as cautionary tales of hyped-up candidates who bombed on stage and saw their campaigns crumble months before voting even began. And I mean, one example we can give from the 2020 Democratic primaries was in that first debate. Kamala had her little prepackage like that little girl was me line that she trained at the former vice president, now current president.

And it actually really worked. It really landed. She jumped up in the polls for a brief moment in time. She actually surged to second place in the polls. But the major caveat to all of this is the people that they mentioned here as prime examples of individuals who the debates have really helped them, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ben Carson, Pete Buttigieg, it's not like any of them actually won the primary. None of them won. It ended up being a bit of a flash in the pan. I mean, you could argue for Pete, it ended up being a bit more than a flash in the pan because he goes on to pretend to win Iowa and do well in New Hampshire, and now he's in the cabinet position. I could see something like that for Vivek in particular. But will they actually change the landscape enough to supplant Trump? No.

They may really shape who ends up being the primary alternative. That's probably about the most you could say for it. The most I will say for it is I believe that this is a fight for number two. And so I think the stakes are very high for the plausible alternatives. I think the rest of them are basically just wasting their time up there. But, you know, good luck to you. I think the rest of them are basically just wasting their time up there, but good luck to you. I wish you the best. And I do think it matters only insofar as being the alternative and then how that will shape the future of the Republican Party. Will Trump take a hit for this? I just don't think so. I think that he strategically made the right call, even though democratically, I think he should have showed up. He had nothing to lose except for taking heat from Chris Christie and from these other folks. And he's like, well, whenever you're on top, he's like, let everybody just squabble.

He even put out a truth not that long ago. He's like, I will decide from this who will be my vice president, which is the ultimate power move. We have some great segments that we wanted to set up also in the past about these debates and when they really showed us the path towards Trump. So we picked some of our past moments. And to me, I've pointed to this for a while. This is more than a decade old. It was during the 2012 presidential primary debates. It was Newt Gingrich versus CNN. And the reason why I think this clip we're about to show you is so important is I think this is when everything changed. This is when things went away from policy. It went away even from attacking the Democrats. This was the first full-blown attack by a Republican presidential candidate against the

media, getting the people in the audience up in their feet against the moderators. And it really was, it really hearkened what Trump would become in this debate. It was Newt Gingrich versus John King over at CNN in a presidential primary debate back in 2012. Let's take a listen. Your ex-wife gave an interview to ABC News and another interview with the Washington Post, and this story has now gone viral on the internet.

In it, she says that you came to her in 1999 at a time when you were having an affair. She says you asked her, sir, to enter into an open marriage. Would you like to take some time to respond to that? No, but I will. I think the destructive, vicious, negative nature of much of the news media makes it harder to govern this country, harder to attract decent people to run for public office. debate on a topic like that. Is that all you want to say, sir? Can you finish, please? Every person in here knows personal pain. Every person in here has had someone close to them go through painful things.

To take an ex-wife and make it two days before the primary, a significant question in a presidential campaign, is as close to despicable as anything I can imagine. As you noted, Mr. Speaker, this story did not come from our network. As you also know, it is the subject of a conversation on the campaign. I'm not, I get your point. I take your point. John, it was repeated by your network. You chose to start the debate with it. Don't try to blame somebody else.

You and your staff chose to start this debate with us. That was it, Crystal. I believe everything changed that day. And now the reason why is that that is with a prelude to the attacking the media, becoming the quote unquote enemy, branding them. That's what Trump really picked up on. And that moment really, I mean, have you ever seen people act like that in debate before?

Never, they were chanting his name. They're up on their feet. And here's the thing, Newt, yeah, he ended up losing, but he was always a talented politician. He was good at what he did. And so that led to what I think truly is where everything broke apart. That was kind of the prelude to this. It was Trump, the very first debate. Politics will never be the same. Him versus Megyn Kelly and then against Jeb Bush. Let's take a listen. You've called women you don't like fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals. Your Twitter account- Only Rosie O'Donnell. For the record, it was well beyond Rosie O'Donnell.

Yes, I'm just subject my wife into the middle of a raucous political conversation was completely inappropriate. And I hope you apologize for that, Donald. Well, I have to tell you, I hear phenomenal things. I hear your wife is a lovely woman. She is. She's fantastic. I don't know her, and this is a total mischaracterization of what I see. She is absolutely the love of my life, and she's right here.

And why don't you apologize for her right now? No, I won't do that because I said nothing wrong, but I do hear she's a lovely woman. So here's the deal. He refused to apologize. He turned it into a show. And I think when you put it all together, attacking the media, being the biggest force against the questioners themselves, which is something that we should

look out for tonight. We're not, you know, people up there aren't stupid. They're going to be studying also big moments. That was it. It's like you turn it into a thing, not just about against each other, but it needs to be a spectacle in which the people who are watching are frothing at the mouth, not against the moderators, but against the system of which they hate so much. And so turning it into this spectacle is ultimately how Trump was able to completely dominate the conversation and bring it back to that new moment and recreate it over and over and over again. It's hard to remember now just how much Jeb Bush was built up as like the candidate that cycle, the amount of money that was behind this guy.

I mean, he had like the perfect on paper bio governor of Florida. Sound familiar, right? Hails from this famous political family, has all the connections in the world. The conservative media loved him. The liberal media tolerated him. He was supposed to be the guy. And Trump systematically humiliated him. The liberal media tolerated him. He was supposed to be the guy. And Trump systematically humiliated him. And that's why that moment was so important to show of Jeb is like, apologize to my wife. And Trump was like, no, I'm not going to do that. No, to his face. And Jeb

just takes it. The fact that Trump is not showing up to these debates, it means that he doesn't have the opportunity to do the same thing basically to Ron DeSantis. Now his calculation, which is probably correct, is that he doesn't even need to. DeSantis is sitting nationally at, I believe on our, you know, RCP average, we had him at like 14.7%, something like that. He's doing a little bit better in Iowa. Maybe I don't actually think he is doing much better in New Hampshire. Actually Chris Christie is doing a little bit better in New Hampshire., I don't actually think he is doing much better in New Hampshire. Actually, Chris Christie is doing a little bit better in New Hampshire. Tim Scott

is doing decently in New Hampshire. But Trump calculates that he doesn't even need to show up to humiliate his rivals to dominate this race. It's hard to argue that he is wrong. But, you know, he was really talented at this thing. You may have hated what he had to say. I certainly hated some of what he had to say. I certainly hated some of the policies that he advocated for. But when you're just considering sheer political skill, there's really no one who is better in this format. The one debate where he had a dismal performance was that first one against Joe Biden when he was way too aggrieved. He was just so obnoxious. And everyone was like, shut up so we can at least hear a question or hear

one single response. That was the one time when he was really off his game. But overwhelmingly, he excels in these things. And so he is creating a little bit of an opening here for someone else to excel and to do something that is different. Probably the thing that will get the most attention here is the most vociferous defender of Trump, which also is a sign of the lay of the land in terms of the likelihood of any of these alternatives really succeeding. But I do think that the interview with Tucker that he's using to try to like counter schedule the programming that's going on with the debate, I don't think that that is

probably going to get all that much attention because it's just nothing all that new. It's on a limited platform. Fox is certainly not going to say anything about it because they despise Tucker and Fox is still the biggest conservative media game in town. So the way I look at it is he changed everything and then got himself up to 60% now where he's acting as if this is a fake primary and that he is basically just in a two-way race with Joe Biden. And it's interesting too, because many media are also beginning to focus in on this about not only his strength in the primary, but really his strength in the overall general election. And I was especially struck here by this CNN clip. Harry Enten, their political analyst, used to work over at FiveThirtyEight, trying to

hammer it home to all of the people at the network. We're like, hey, guys, this is a close race. Trump is very strong. He's in a good position to win, not re-election, I guess, win the election. Again, should he actually make it there? Let's take a listen to this. Trump's lead is even larger. So these are three polls that were out over the last week. Look at these leads for Donald Trump. He's at 62% of the CBS News You Go poll, 57% in Quinnipiac University, 53% in the Fox News poll. look at where DeSantis is in all these posts. Look how far back he is.

He doesn't crack 20% in any of them. So in Iowa, you have that 20 plus point lead for Donald Trump. That's actually smaller than the lead we see nationally, where we see these leads of 35, 40, near 50 points in this particular case. Of course, the primary is one thing. If Trump wins the primary, can he go on and win the general election? And we've had three polls that have come out over the last week here. And I want you to take a look at how close this race is at this particular point.

Granted, the general election is over a year away. The largest lead for Joe Biden is just three points within the margin of error. No clear leader. Look at these. One point. One point. If you go back at where we were at this point four years ago, Joe Biden's lead was high single digits to low double digits. This is significantly closer than where we were four years ago. So this idea that Donald Trump can't win the general election, I want you to lose that idea. This race is very, very close. And Donald Trump is polling better right now than basically at any point during the entire 2020 cycle. After four indictments.

After four indictments. It just doesn't really seem to matter. That's fascinating. Harry Anton, thank you. Thank you. I want you to lose that idea. This idea, that's why he's not going to the debate. He sees that.

He can read a poll. He's like, I got nothing to lose. I'm already doing this. I'm doing well. Biden's sinking himself. And so I keep coming back to the side of, well, I think that the debate, look, I think somebody could have their moment as you laid out in the political hour. Everybody can have quote unquote a moment, but to be riding as high as he is, to have so much control over the media narrative, to be so high ahead of the rest of them. He's just probably in the best position that he's ever been in. He shouldn't expose himself to weakness on a

strategic level. Democratically, I agree with you. I said last show, I believe that the rules should be changed. They should change the bylaws. You can't be the nominee unless you participate in the debates. But I know they're also never going to do that. Maybe once Biden and Trump are gone, they will change it. I think they should. The next time we have an open primary system where you don't have this same choice, do it, put it in the laws. Yeah, I mean, that's what's so depressing about both primaries, the Democratic and the Republican primaries. Yeah, they are setting the precedent now of, you know, they don't feel that they have to

subject themselves to any sort of Democratic accountability. And there's no indication that either the Democratic or Republican primary base are likely to punish them for that. So it is a sort of depressing state of affairs. In terms of CNN there, Harry Enten has been sounding the alarm. He did a whole piece laying out, guys, look at the polls now. Trump was nowhere near this close in 2020 with Biden. And by the way, remember, he almost won. It was very close in 2020. It's not like it was a landslide.

And back in 2016, when he did actually win, he was nowhere near to polling as well as he is in these polls. Now, my personal guess is that the fact that the general election landscape is going to take place amidst the backdrop of all of his trials, you know, the general election landscape is going to take place amidst the backdrop of all of his trials, you know, the one in Georgia is going to be televised. There's going to be a whole courtroom drama around it. I do think that that sort of offends a normie like law and order kind of sensibility. The idea that this man could literally be facing prison time heading into the general election. But can I say that with confidence? Can I say 100% like Joe Biden is a lock for getting reelected? No,

not at all. And the fact that this is a jump ball right now where the polls are tied, where to be honest with you, given the historic like bias against Trump in the polls, you'd have to say it probably has an edge. I think it is a pathetic sign of the state of the Democratic Party. I think they should be holding their heads in shame over the fact that it could be so close. And let's not forget that many Democratic analysts and many within the White House reportedly were actively cheering for Trump to be the nominee because once again, they never learned anything from history and they thought this would be easy to beat. Apparently now they're starting to rethink that, as they've seen Ron DeSantis on the

campaign trail. They actually think maybe we'd rather go up against that guy. But look, that ship in many ways has probably already sailed. I agree. So my TLDR on this is I don't think it's going to matter. I don't think this debate matters in the age of Trump. I think he changed the game. He was the most captivating of all time.

He played it at such a high level, and now he's letting it be the JV League. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is what it is. And I think, you know, he's correctly putting himself in a general election posture. And the media is treating him that way, too, because they're not stupid. They can read the poll. I would position it a little bit differently because I do think the race to be the primary Trump alternative matters in terms of who is going to continue to be a fixture in media and politics. So in the same way that Pete secured his cabinet position and his love among resistance liberals and among the donor set, I think, you know, you've got those openings available for people who successfully are able to grab the spotlight at the debate.

Do I think that it shifts who's going to actually win the Republican primary? I think that is very unlikely. Some breaking news we can report here. We've got some breaking points power rankings. So we were so inspired by Fox News just pulling out of their ass power rankings for the Republican primary. We decided we should probably do the same thing. Except we're not going to treat it like breaking news the way that they did. There's a level of self-seriousness. Anyway, this is basically just our predictions of who's going to come out well out of the debate,

who's going to improve their position, and who is going to do themselves damage coming out of the debate. So I will start with mine. And I think you might be a little bit surprised here because this is a bit of a hot take. All right. Let's go ahead and put my winners in my power rankings up on the screen. It's controversial. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy. Now, Vivek, I don't think people will be surprised because I've said before, I think he's politically talented. I think he'll be well prepared. I think he'll be unafraid of, you know, going on the attack against Ron DeSantis. I think he'll do an effective job at that. You have a relatively low name ID

for Vivek. So in a lot of ways, he has the most room to grow in terms of the candidates that will be on the stage. And so I think that he will do himself some favors tonight. However, the reason I put Ron DeSantis up there, Sagar, and I do want to say I don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but he's got a low bar at this point. There's been so much commentary about how awkward he is and how bad he is with people and how his campaign's falling apart and whatever. I know he's going to show up really well prepared, really well scripted. I can imagine him having like the equivalent of the Kamala Harris, that little girl is me kind of a moment up there. And so I think he may do himself some good being on that stage. And he'll really be a focal point

in a lot of ways. There'll be a lot of attacks coming at him. And that gives him an opportunity to parry those effectively and really try to reestablish himself as a primary serious Trump competitor. So that is why I put those two gentlemen at the top. I do want to say one other thing just in terms of how I was thinking about this. I suspect the person whose performance I will like the most is probably Chris Christie. And I do think he's very politically talented. I think he will land his blows, etc. But this isn't about who I'm going to like because I'm not a Republican primary voter. I suspect the liberal media, CNN and MSNBC are also going to enjoy Chris Christie's performance as Chris Matthews told us he's a liberal pinup boy, which was accurate. He was right. But is that going to

help him in terms of doing better in a Republican primary? No, I don't really see that. Okay, let's see your losers, and then I'll do mine, and then you can go over. Okay, so let's go ahead and debut my losers here, Mike Pence and Tim Scott. So I just don't really see either of them being able to have a breakout moment. Both of their political personalities are being like the super nice guy. And for better or worse, I just don't know that that really sells. I don't think it really provides the opportunity for you to have that kind of spotlight grabbing, interesting breakout moment and assert yourself. And if you aren't moving up the rankings of being one of the top

Trump alternatives, then I think, you know, you're falling behind. And to me, it's particularly embarrassing for Mike Pence, who was the vice president. I mean, this is a man who's been in politics for so long, who does have a lot of connections, who was literally vice president of the United States for four years and has fallen down into, you know, at best a mid-tier competitor here, even in the context of a Republican primary debate without Trump. And so for him to be sidelined in this way in such a visible performance, I think it's a real problem for him. Tim Scott, there's a lot of media hype around him at the moment. But again, I find it hard to believe that he's going to really be able to achieve any sort of a breakout moment, so I think it's tough for him too.

There you go. Okay, let's put my winners up there because I think this might surprise you. There's a little bit of a disagreement here. We have to share one winner. So I've got Ramaswamy and Christie, and here's my case. I believe that this is ultimately, as I said, it's a vote for number two. Chris Christie is a talented debater. He's well-spoken.

I believe he's going gonna be on the attack against Ron DeSantis, and because I don't think DeSantis has ever really been challenged at this level, particularly about being some sort of Trump toady, Christie's gonna find some knocks against him. The other reason I put Ramaswamy is, I think Vivek is just far more politically talented than Ron DeSantis in a back and forth environment.

He always puts himself in challenging situations. He was on our show, he was on CNN, I mean he's constantly battling with Kaitlyn Collins, Don Lemon. So he's got practice. He knows exactly how to parry, how to get to it, about how to knock somebody's attacks against him. I think he's gonna win on that front because he's also gonna be on the attack against DeSantis and I don't think DeSantis is gonna be able to levy the same blows against him.

Christie is likely to attack DeSantis, but he's probably gonna focus more of his attack on, sorry, he's likely to attack the vague, but more likely to focus his attack on DeSantis cuz he's there. Ramos-Wamilo may be the beneficiary of that, and I think he will out battle them at least in a duel whenever it comes to fights about Trump indictment, foreign policy, Ukraine. He's the best, most articulate, well-spoken person on there. It's a big performance. So this leads into my losers, and this is probably my hottest take. Number one, I think it's DeSantis. I think DeSantis is going to be the loser. He showed, obviously, he's had several awkward moments on the trail.

Whenever he's pressed, he does get a little bit flustered. He hasn't done enough contentious interviews. He's had some decent moments in a press conference, but with the political talent of Christie and Ramaswamy going up against him, I'm just not sure that he's prepared for the moment. The reason I put Mike Pence there is the exact same analysis as you. To be the former vice president, betraying a guy like Vivek Ramaswamy who wrote a book, humiliating. Humiliating. Let's be honest. I mean, this is the Al Gore thing, you know, George H.W. Bush. This should have been his. He should be coronated. He shouldn't even be debated. And the Trump questions are like the most tortured for him, too. Horrible. He was there. Everyone else has kind of either decided like, I'm just going

to defend this guy or whatever, or they're willing to make the critique. Pence is still like, you can feel the anguish in every response. And yeah, it's just kind of painful to watch. And then Haley, I mean, I have always believed she is one of the least talented politicians on the stage. She's a complete donor creation. I think she's going to have the most scripted, fumbled answers. I hope Vivek smacks her on Israel and any of these other comments, or Ukraine or these other ridiculous positions that she takes. And I don't think she holds up to scrutiny one bit. She never puts herself in a position for a contentious interview.

I mean, she's one of the people who I'm like, really, you're not gonna respond about coming on our show? Yeah, like, lady here at 3%. Yeah, all right. Yeah, you should be taking about all the positions you can. But listen, you know, be my guest. I have always bet against her political talent. I think she's terrible. I think she's totally establishment. The voters really

have nothing to connect with her. Tim Scott, I decided not to put in my losers. I think he's just a wash. I think he's a nice guy. Debate's not his format. His format's the campaign trail, the speeches. So we'll see. But he's not enough, I think yet in my book, to be a loser. DeSantis is the most to lose. So far, we've not seen enough political talent for him to rise. I could be totally wrong. He could be a big winner. He has the potential to do it.

But we haven't seen that. Considering he's so much on a downswing, he's got the most at stake there tonight. I don't think there's any question I think Ramaswamy is going to have a great night. He's just good at the format. He's good at what he does. Obviously, I put him as one of my winners, too. So I agree with you. I will say if he doesn't, it could be for two reasons.

Number one, he tends to be pretty wordy in his responses. Like, it takes him, even when we were talking to him, like, it takes a minute for him to get to. He's a talker. He's a talker. He's a long talker. That's, like, not a knock on him. That's just his style. It takes a while for him to, like, lay out the context.

He doesn't just, he's not super punchy. Right. And in a debate, debates prioritize that, like, you know, the one-liner and the punchiness, and you have a very short period of time to respond. So if he has an off night, I would say that is why. And the other possible reason is DeSantis and co. feel like he hasn't been challenged on some of his past more liberal political sentiments. You know, you actually challenged him, Sagar, a little bit on that on our show about what he used to say about January 6th versus what he says now on January 6th are pretty different.

I mean, he has made a bit of, I think, a pretty significant political evolution to position himself as this very pro-Trump force within the Republican primary. And that's just not where he was before. So if someone could effectively land a blow on him for that stuff, in particular around how loyal are you really to Donald Trump, that could matter because he has made Trump defense so central to his political brand within the Republican primary. But, you know, my expectation, like I think he's a talented guy. I think he'll be, have planned for that.

I think he'll be prepared. I think he'll probably be ready to parry those attacks. But if he does have an off night, those would be the reasons I would say why. But here's the thing, this is why he came on our show. He's been, how many times has he not been asked about it? Five, six times? It's like, that's the benefit of being in the arena.

DeSantis hasn't put himself in the arena. I think he's gonna have a tough night. I really do. Especially, he snaps. He really doesn't like being pressed. And he did okay in his debate against, who was it, Charlie Crist. But at the end of the day,

it hasn't necessarily been his format. And he's gonna be taking it in ways that Vivek has had. Chris Christie also, let's be honest. I mean, he, not only has he been in previous debates, he actually does a lot of media interviews, in some cases, contentious media interviews. He's been going on Newsmax and fighting with Eric Bolling. That's what I mean. He, Christie is one of these guys that actually seems to relish the fight.

Right. I mean, he's this very New Jersey, New York personnel, kind of like Trump in a way, you know? And so I know he'll do an effective job. I just don't think that he'll be landing the blows that will move him up in terms of the Republican primary. That's a whole other conversation. Yeah. In terms of what the voters and all that,

I think that's one thing. In terms of who's going to have the breakout, I really, I think Ramaswamy is going to be the big winner. I really believe that. Let me say, though, reality, I actually think the big winner is going to be that. Let me say though, reality, I actually think the big winner is going to be Trump. Yeah, of course. Because I mean, the fact that so much of this debate is going to center around him and how people feel about him. And this is what he's

done in the Republican Party. This is why he is so central and why it's so impossible to knock him off of his perch. because he has made the Republican Party all about and really all of politics, even Democratic politics. He's made all of politics just about how do you feel about Donald Trump? And so the fact that that's like the central question at the heart of these debates, that's already that's a massive win for him and that he can just, you you know sit back and watch it and post truths or whatever and watch his little toadies go to work for him on stage who are supposed to be his rivals but you know the the primary like the ones who are most serious are

going to be out there defending him tooth and nail yeah that's that's a huge win for him i agree uh so look that's what you what you guys have got. In terms of the debate, because it ends so late, we just decided we'll get up early and we'll make sure that when you guys wake up, you will have full analysis from us here. We'll have Emily here. We're going to have Kyla. We'll have a power panel. We'll have big breakdowns. We'll have clips, full produced and good show for everybody right in the morning whenever

you guys wake up and you want to digest all the analysis of what happened the previous night. So we're really excited for that. I hope you guys enjoyed the preview. As we said, we have a special discount on our yearly membership just until the debate starts. Links are down in the description, both for the video and for the podcast

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