Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 8/3/26: MAGA Abuser Doubles Down, Spain Migrant Crisis, New York Sues Kalshi

Episode Date: August 3, 2026

Krystal and Saagar discuss MAGA abuser doubles down, Spain migrant crisis, New York sues Kalshi. Juan David Rojas: https://juandarojasro.substack.com/    To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com    Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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And the stories everyone's talking about across women's sports. Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to everyone watches women's sports on the IHeart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election. and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right

that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Last week, we covered the horrific abuse allegations against Representative Max Miller, who is still running for reelection.

And he announced over the weekend, I'm going to have a big speech on Sunday morning. And so people were watching, wondering whether he was going to drop out, given the severity of these abuse allegations, both against his ex-wife and against his own child. But no, in fact, he doubled down and denied that any of this was truly. let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of what he had to say. My former wife has claimed that during a custody exchange at my home that day, I assaulted her. Here's what actually happened. And I have the ring doorbell footage that backs it up. She came to my home in a good mood, and we have text messages to prove it, which you'll have,

to pick up our daughter early for a friend's birthday party. She was inside my house for several minutes when she left. The video shows her walking out, carrying our daughter calm, in the same good mood, showing no distress whatsoever. And as they left, you can hear me say, goodbye, I love you and I love you, Ruthie, literally telling my ex-wife that I still cared for her. Does that sound like somebody who would just walk out and who have been violently thrown a wall and been abused? She didn't call the police after that. She didn't go to the hospital, ladies and gentlemen. Do you want to know what she did? She went straight to a child's birthday party. The very next day, we had a friendly phone call about our daughter's upcoming hospital procedure, and I drove in from Washington to be there for it. Six days later, she offered to cook empanadas for me for dinner just two days later after this alleged incident. The day after that, she invited me and my girlfriend, which you'll have in Texas. messages to join her and our daughter at a playground. And that day, I just went with my former wife

to the playground to spend time with our daughter. A week later, on February 15th, she wrote to me, in her own words, which you will see, I think it's great you and I are in a friendlier place. She then offered me more extra overnights with our daughter, which I can prove to every single one of you is recently, every one of these messages is time stamped on our court-sanctioned co-parenting app and is all in the packet. Only weeks later did the story of February 1st assault appears. So ask yourself, if I had assaulted her, would she had offered a cook me dinner six days later? Would she have invited me to spend an afternoon at the playground with her and our daughter? Would she have written that we were in a friendlier place?

No, she wouldn't have, ladies and gentlemen. So there's a lot to say about that. First of all, the fact that she, you know, had made some efforts at sort of maintaining the peace and keeping up relations with this man who continues to have shared custody of her daughter, I don't think disproves any of the abuse allegations. He makes a lot of claims in this 20-minute speech he gave here.

I watched the whole thing. One of the claims that he makes is definitively untrue. He says all of the allegations, of abuse came from his ex-wife, who, by the way, her father is Republican Senator Bernie Moreno. Put a pin in that. We'll get to that in just a moment. That is not true. Stephanie Grisham, who was part of the first Trump White House, was in a relationship with him and alleged that he threw her up against the wall and slapped her when she accused him of cheating on her. There were allegations against him in high school that he allegedly

threw a girl down the stairs in high school. There were allegations. that came out in the custody hearings that he was expelled from college for violence against a woman. And Mother Jones has done the most comprehensive reporting on this and, you know, spoke to some of the people who were involved here who stand by their stories alleging abuse against him. So it is simply not true that the only abuse allegations come from his ex-wife. In addition, he released a bunch of audio and contemporaneous records to try to clear his name. And so we learn one thing, which is that he was apparently surreptitiously recording his ex-wife and other loved ones, which is, you know, it was legal, I guess, in the state of Ohio, but very shady behavior. In any case, one of those audios seems to really undermine some of the stories that he's been telling as well.

He told the New York Post, one of the abuse allegations was that he had thrown scalding hot water at his ex-wife and that she had, you know, she had marks from this water. He had told the New York Post this never happened and that the marks that we have pictures of on her skin were from a sunburn. In one of the audios that he himself released, he seems to acknowledge that this scalding hot water incident occurred. However, he purports that they were just horsing around in the kitchen and he sprayed her with the, the tap water and it couldn't have been that hot to injure or burn her. Let's go and take a listen to this surreptitious recording that he provided of this interaction between him and his ex-wife. It never was done to hurt you and you know that. You were weaponizing this because of my previous allegations. And then you knew it was because you went into my, you went into my, you when I was

crying. So Emily. So Emily. So Emily. So Emily. I didn't need to hurt you. I didn't need to hurt you. Why are you scared of me? Why are you scared of me? Yeah. I didn't mean to hurt you. It wasn't done with intent. You just said it yourself. You literally just said it yourself. It wasn't done to hurt you. And I told you before that not to come over to me and start screwing around with me. It was a- Emily, you're taking a playful incident and making something nefarious. It's not playful. You have hot water. Emily, going out of the faucet, it does not get to a temperature of boiling water. It does not. Put it on when you get home, Max. I did it and I tested it.

And I had our attorneys tested because I figured that this is what you were going to come at me with. It's literally, no, no, but literally it's like standing under a hot shower and we already have someone to go ahead and combat this if this is what you're going to do. And so Saga, let me get you to weigh in. But just so people know the totality of the allegation she's making here, there's not only the scalding water allegation. She also alleges that he held a gun to her head. Their daughter's collarbone was broken. and she suspects that he may have been to blame. She says that the daughter has told her that daddy's house is, quote, scary.

And there's a bunch of other stuff from there at court hearings that is just like, you know, horrifying treatment of the woman who just gave birth to your child, abandoned her off, again, allegations, abandoned her after like two days after she gave birth, refused to be present for the childbirth, made all sorts of like derogatory comments about her body, given that she had just, given birth to a child. So that's the sort of stuff that we're dealing with here. Right. And like you said, Miller denies it all. He's actually suing both Moreno and Grisham for defamation. He released that speech to defend himself. I mean, objectively, looking at all of it, like you said, with a lot of the incidents from Mother Jones's report, again, which Miller

had been contacted for comment and which he denied many of these. However, some of it at least comes from court records, what you could see, you know, in that audio, at least the one that he released, is he is admitting that there was some hot water or all of that involved. You know, part of this has just seemed so silly. It's like, why are you speaking to the mother of your child like that? Like, what are you doing? Like, that's where I just followed down, especially when you have a two-year-old daughter and then this bitter custody dispute in which there's clearly like insane antagonism from his side. And, you know, just the general, like, would she have offered to cook me dinner I'm like, dude, yeah, you share a, you know, a child.

So they probably want to keep things like somewhat amicable, even if there had been some situation between the two of you. As you well pointed out. Trump was asked about this, by the way, because he is actually running for re-election. Here's what he had to say. I just learned about it. Well, I'm going to look at it. I mean, so far it's accusations. I'll be looking at it.

He said so far it's just accusations. I'll be looking at it. That's part of the problem for the Republicans. This is too late, I think, or at least from what they've said, to replace him. We did have Bernie Moreno. We could put C4 up here on the screen, the sitting senator from Ohio, whose daughter, Emily, is the person who obviously is in the center of all this. He says, as a father and a husband, I can tell you the last two years have been pure hell

for my wife, Bridget, our daughter, Emily, me, our entire family, in the aftermath of Emily's divorce. It has been horrific to watch this play out in public view, all while knowing an innocent two-year-old girl is caught in the middle. I priority has been protecting our daughter and our granddaughter out of concern for the safety of my family. I hope to keep this matter private, but Max Miller's increasingly erratic and dangerous behavior has made that impossible. As he admitted privately, Max Miller needs serious psychological help. He's a danger to my daughter. I hold my breath every minute he has cost to me of my granddaughter.

If there are any basic standards of character required to hold elected office, Miller fails them. He should not serve in the House of Representatives. I believe Miller needs to seek professional help to end the clear pattern of abuse he has left in his wake. I believe he should not be free to continue endangering others until he does. I ran for office because I wanted to make a difference, etc. He says the sacrifice has been very hard on my wife, Bridget, whose big heart and steady support have never wavered. I owe it to her, Emily, and to my granddaughter, to speak the truth now. That was the first time that he has actually said anything about the situation, which is kind of mind-boggling, considering it's his own daughter and granddaughter at the center of it.

I did ask around, and apparently one of the reasons why had to do with some of the custody disputes and some of the reelection stuff that's going on behind the scenes, but nonetheless, chalking. Miller has responded, by the way, C5, let's put it up here on the screen. He said, Bernie Marino, if my daughter said the same thing to me, I personally wouldn't wait two years before holding him accountable. You know this isn't true, and the only reason you are speaking out now is to hide from your own media circus, this is all political. He appears to be insinuating that he has some dirt on

Bernie Moreno and has said that now for many years. I mean, it does have kind of a point saying I wouldn't have waited two years to be able to come out. But nonetheless, this is a bitter and very dramatic situation in the Ohio congressional delegation, which does highlight too, you know, you just had this whole Platner situation going on with the Democrat. He obviously dropped out immediately. But Republicans still, I mean, mostly you're either silent or are rallying around him because they don't want to lose the seat. I have not looked at the odds or the polling in his district, but I can't imagine that this is going to be helpful. Yeah, no. So, first of all, on the political front, Moreno is the

only one, literally the only elected Republican in Washington who has said that he should not be in Congress. That's it. And yeah, there's a direct contrast with the Platner situation, you know, when there was a credible sexual assault threat. And some of these very same people who are now running around on the Republican side and saying Miller's a great guy and I'm helping him get reelected are the same people who are, you know, castigating Democrats for their lack of morals. So you can see, I mean, it's, you know, it's trite at this point to make the hypocrisy point, but it's just so overwhelmingly in your face with this one that it's hard to avoid. So, There's that. So with regard to Moreno, this had come out during his campaign, and I had forgotten about this, but his work account, Moreno's, had been used to set up a profile on a gay dating website where said profile indicated was looking for one-on-one situations with quote-unquote young men. A staffer came out and said that he had set this up as some sort of a gag. So there's a lot of speculation that maybe that is what Miller is threatened.

Mareno with to reveal. He texted him something like, you know, I'll reveal things that show, you know, show people, I know you even better than your wife does, something of that nature. And so, anyway, that's the speculation in terms of what Max Miller has on Bernie Moreno. Of course, none of us really know what the, you know, substance or if there is any substance of allegations against Moreno. One other piece here, just in terms of the credibility, the allegations against Miller. There's also a note that the Daily Mail was able to get their hands on that allegedly happened that Miller wrote to his ex-wife right after the alleged water scolding incident occurred where he said to her, I don't know what to do. I do know you love me,

protect me, and care for me. I failed to do that for you. It's eating me alive. I love you, even if you think I don't. I love you so much. I'm so sorry. I'm just a fuck up and worse. So Moreno contends that this was a sort of like apology for the water scalding incident, which would indicate that he knows that he hurt her. He claims that that was not the context of this note. It was around some sort of like political dispute. So in any case, I just wanted to put that out there in terms of backing up her story and the credibility therein.

But the withdrawal deadline in Ohio is August 5th. So that's two days from now. Doesn't look like he's dropping out. It's a district in Ohio that Trump won by 11 points. However, when Bernie Marano ran for the Senate, he only won this district by one point. So I think it very much is, you know, in play for Democrats. The Democratic nominee seems to be pretty strong. Brian Poindexter is a union iron worker, position himself as a populist.

So, you know, I think this is the weird thing to me with Republicans. just standing by him and lockstep is I don't actually think that this is a smart tactical decision for them because if they just got some run-of-the-mill generic Republican in there, the seat would likely they'd be able to hang on to it. But with him, because he is, you know, uniquely has these horrifying allegations against him and many people won't want to vote for him because of that reason, he puts the seat in jeopardy. And then the last thing I'll say about him is he genuinely would not exist as a political figure without Trump. He, you know, had issues in college. Then he becomes like an intern on Marco

Rubio's campaign. And then when Rubio drops out, then he goes over to Trump. Trump likes him. He ends up in charge a part of Trump's advanced team, you know, in an aide in the first Trump White House. And then wants the seat. I think the guy who held the seat previously had voted for Trump impeachment after January 6th. So Trump was like, okay, we got the perfect guy, endorses him. There you go. He's a congressman. So, you know, this is a, this is a Trump loyalist through and through truly, you know, creature of the Mag of Movement. He's also one of the most, like, progenocide freaks in the entire Congress, which is really saying something. So anyway, that's a little bit of the political backstory. Yeah, I knew more about the Gaza angle and how dedicated he is to Israel. That's what he

originally came on my radar for, I guess, if you will. Yeah, I mean, like you said, one thing I have heard often in Washington is that many Republicans think it was such a huge mistake to kick out George Santos because it really hurt their margins in the House of Representatives. And currently, where the Republican margin is, it's so razor thin. They just think that they can't accept even kicking out somebody who's so obviously deserving. I know I think Jim Jordan has been asked about this before. So you could see that logic very clearly on display for all of them. But why not just have him not run for re-election? Well, they can't force him to, right? I mean, At the end of the, I mean, I guess they can.

They could say, look, you're not going to get a dollar from the committee or any of that, but he might just say, screw you. He might be, you know, we have no idea. Yeah. Well, yeah, I mean, also it comes down to Trump. Trump could just come in and say, you're done. I'm going to endorse somebody else. We all know that the Republican base would vote for it.

Yeah. Well, that's what I really think is going on. I think they're all taking their lead from Trump. They don't want to get crosswise with him. They know this is his guy. And so since he is standing by him, they're all going to stand by him. That's how they make their decision. Yeah, that's right. All right. We got Juan David Rojas standing by to talk about Spain. Let's get to it.

Behind every night spent making the kids' lunches, there's a lot of suspense. Will they finally eat the veggies? Will the pesto survive the first bite? Will the lunchbox come home empty, half full, or come home at all? And will you finish episode eight before you're done slicing the cucumbers? Get Bell Pure Fiber Internet with Craved Netflix and Disney Plus from $94 a month. Price guaranteed for two years on internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Bell.za for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. Bill, why is my eye twitching? Does this mean I'm in perimenopause? Maybe I have adult ADHD. I need to look this up. Where's my phone? Juliana, your phone is hot to the touch. I think it's asking you for a break. You know what? Maybe I should just ask chat GPT. Or maybe we can ask an actual human. Yes, like a couple sex therapist. Whoa, that escalated quickly, but okay. Because I have questions. We have questions. And I bet everyone has.

has questions. Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms? We do that. How about this one? Is bribing your kids bad parenting or just negotiating? Oh, and I still do need to know why was my poop green that one time? Hypothetically, right? Okay, well, instead of letting the internet guess, we've got actual people answering these exact questions. And laughing with us has got to be better than spending three hours down a rabbit hole online. Listen to Bill and Juliana. The podcast. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. I'm Munges shit together, and I'm back with a new season of the podcast, Skyline Drive. This time I'm diving into a rabbit hole of peptides, organoids, blood boys, blue zones, and brain replacement

to try to understand what this longevity obsession is all about and what it really means to live forever for all of us. I learned about some rad science. I can make a brain for you, and then we can test what draw is the best for your brain, as opposed to his brain. Here's some hard truths. I would expect Indians to age faster, but I did not expect it to be almost a four to five-year acceleration. And get myself into a world of trouble. I'd say probably start bone smashing. That doesn't work.

Make it look more defined. They say it works. I don't know. Listen to Skyline Drive, How to Live Forever on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, guys, there was a wild situation unfolding in Ceuta, Spain, a place that I did not know exist, but I am now learning a lot about. So this is across from the Spanish mainland right next to Morocco and on the street of Gibraltar. What you see here is tens of thousands of migrants who suddenly surge to and over the border. into this Spanish territory.

There were images that immediately seemed to suggest this was some sort of an organized movement, not only because the flood of people who suddenly emerged, but also because you saw them arriving on trucks and being unloaded near the border. We now have a lot of testimony from some of the migrants, most of whom have now returned to Morocco, but some of the migrants who were part of this wave saying that they were encouraged by the Moroccan authorities there at the border, saying also that there were a lot of Facebook posts saying, hey, the Spanish border is open.

You can see here people who are struggling, collapsing on the beach there. You know, there were migrants who were killed and injured as part of whatever this was. And so now to talk about what exactly happened here and why there are suspicions that the U.S. and Israel could have been involved in what would be a sort of hybrid war. war operation is Juan David Rojas. He is a calmness at Unheard. He has a new article up. We can put D2 up on the screen. And his headline here is, did Maga create the Sayuda crisis? Morocco is cozying up to Trump. Welcome, Juan. Great to see you. Good to see you, man. Thanks for having me on guys.

Yeah. Yeah, of course. So just start by giving a little versatile, I'll correct anything that I said that might have been wrong. Give a little bit of backstory here about what this place is, what happened. and why it has so much significance. Yeah, so around 60,000 migrants over, I think it was on Friday or Thursday, cross over into the Spanish territory called Ceuta. And so Spain actually has these two enclaves across the Strait of Gibraltar on the coast with Morocco, Ceuta and Malija. They're just these like two cities completely surrounded by Morocco.

And they've actually controlled them since the 1400s. But, you know, it's been a point of contention between Spain and Morocco. Morocco says that it should be theirs on account of, you know, their geographical location. But, you know, this area of the world is really interesting if you're into, like, decolonial stuff. Because you have Gibraltar itself, which is, you know, controlled by the UK, which Spain says should be theirs. And then on the other hand, Morocco claims all of what's called Western Sahara further south, which used to be a Spanish territory as well. Spain handed control over to it in Morocco, and there's been an insurgency there because the Sarawi, the native people of Western Sahara don't want to be part of Morocco, and this is a horrific. It's kind of like a Palestine situation. They built like a wall to keep out like the separatists and have like an exchange fire with these insurgents for a long time. And actually for decades, Morocco has used these two cities, Ceuta and Melija, in order to get at Spain and also Algeria. for like supporting

these Sarawi separatists. And so a lot of analysts have thought that because Spain had been like forging closer relations with Algeria, which allegedly provides support to the Sarawis, Morocco just decided, hey, you know what, we're just going to screw Spain like this.

Now going a step further, you know, Morocco doesn't need, doesn't really take orders from anyone. their the king there, they have their own internal politics and whatnot. But I definitely think they feel emboldened because in recent years, Morocco has really forged close ties with Israel and the U.S. In 2020, under Trump's first administration, the Abraham Accords, Morocco was a signatory. And in exchange, the Trump administration recognized Morocco's control over Western Sahara. then in more recent years

like the Trump administration hosted these like covert talks with like Morocco and other countries over like the Western Sahara issue in and but the interesting thing is like if you look at Maga all of a sudden they care a lot about these two cities Seuta and Melija why is that

and like in March Dea is a representative Diaz Belar from here in South Florida he said that Seuta and Malija should belong to Morocco and that Spain is a colonial power, which is crazy. He's basically like intoning Fidel Castro, I argued in the piece. So it's nuts. Thomas Massey pointed out that last week, the House passed a bill that would have given like $40 million to Morocco. And in the bill, it recognizes Seuta and Melija

as part of Morocco. So this is crazy stuff. Days before this also, Morocco named its highway that goes through Western Sahara after Donald Trump. And Trump has a true social post where he says, thank you to the great king of Morocco. I hope to one day ride through this amazing, beautiful highway. And then the question kind of is, is like, why now? And so I know there's been some, there's been a lot of speculation, especially around Morocco and Israel's relationship. For example, we have D4.

We can put here on the screen an extraordinary state. from Yair Netanyahu. He is the son of Benjamin Nanyahu, the prime minister of Israel. He said in 2019, May 26, let's make a deal. We won't fund NGOs in your country calling you to give away Suaita and Maia, and you will stop funding NGOs in our country that calls us to give away Judea and Samaria. This is part of, obviously, the West Bank and Gaza in their parlance. This included actually a thread in a map that Yaiyir posted, including direct threats by Morocco to take over Suita and Maia. So the Israel connection here, somewhat interesting. This was one of many posts, including by Itamar Ben-Givir, the Israeli Foreign Ministry, and others attacking Spain after this

migration wave. What is the connection there? Is it because of Spain's opposition to Israel? And it's conduct in Gaza. Exactly, exactly. Yeah, that was the last piece. So Spain under Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been really critical both of the war in Gaza and now the Iran War. And even when as far as to not allow the U.S. to dock its planes and that we have two bases inside of Spain, this is a huge deal, the Rotan, I forget the name of the other one. And so the MAGA has branded Spain like public enemy number one. There's also the factor that they refuse to keep up with their defense spending commitments under NATO. But yeah, the Israelis also, yeah, they've been saying these kinds of things for years just

to get back at Spain because Sanchez has been in power since 2018, I believe. So, yeah, I definitely don't think it's a coincidence. I mean, I saw on like newsmax, they were saying, oh, the Spanish, look at this. It's because they're opposed to like Western civilization. Well, I mean, it looks like you guys are kind of opposed to Western civilization right now. Right. Let's go ahead and play to your point about the right-wing interest here in Spain. Trump recently said there, sort of issued a threat, said that the Spanish are not, quote, behaving nicely, but they will learn.

Let's take a list of what he had to say. Ah, the Spanish. The members of NATO, but not very good members of NATO. they say, no, we don't want to help other people. What are we doing, huh? They are not behaving nicely, but they will learn soon after they relinquished their grip on Cuba and Guam, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico. And they were all ours. They all, we got them all.

So interesting comments there from Trump. I'm also reminded one of a couple of other historical events here. One is my friend Yegor said that in Belarus, Lukashenko did something very similar, bringing in migrants, mostly Iraqi Kurdish migrants and using them and encouraging them, actually bringing them in on these like cheap flights and cheap tours, supposedly a Belarus and then encouraging them to flood over the border into Poland to sort of punish them for some things that they had done, sanctioning him and calling his election in question. It also, of course, reminds very much of the Texas strategy of busing migrants into blue cities, into New York City, into Chicago, using people as pawns to make this sort of political point and create difficult political situations for leaders that they're at odds with. So it's not like this would be a new tactic if it is, in fact, you know, the U.S. and Israel that are encouraging this to go forward. Yeah, that's exactly right. another good example is Turkey, which has long used migration in order to extort the EU for concessions. I mean, and that's just what Morocco has done for forever. And you pointed out to me

that apparently they found Moroccan intelligence agents among the migrants that crossed over into Sauta. And you think about it, unfortunately, I'm going to be real. This is, you know, regard, you know, I think it's a confluence of things, but it's a savvy political. move, depending on whether it's Morocco, Israel, and or the U.S. staging this. Because, you know, Sanchez has now put in this really difficult position. In January, he actually passed this insane amnesty for basically everyone who was in Spain, who would come to Spain regularly, which, you know, me personally all say, I think it's great for the migrants and it's great to not have this underclass of, you know,

illegal workers. But on the other hand, the problem with these kinds of amnesty is it's true. If you don't have overwhelming enforcement on new arrivals, amnesty just create a further incentive for more illegal immigration. And so Sanchez now has to decide, it's like, oh, do I clamp down or do I just kind of do nothing? And the am, you know, Sanchez has done a number of good things. His stance on against the U.S. and Israel, and also raising the minimum wage attend is extremely popular. You know what's not popular? The amnesty he did. which has like a 60% disapproval rating. Wow.

So it's extremely rough. It seems like, you know, I gave the advice that he should, the correct posture I think for leftist is to say, look, migrants are human beings. They should not be abused, but they also can't abuse the system. And we need to have, you know, have territorial integrity. And he, to his credit, said that, you know, this incident was a gross violation of Spain's sovereignty. And a majority of those that went into the city have already been expelled.

So, you know, we'll see in the long term what the electoral consequences are. There's an election, a general election next year in Spain. And Sanchez, you know, he's a really crafty guy, but I don't know if he's going to be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat this time. He has these coalition partners, Summar and Poemmos that are extremely progressive. They're the like, no human being as illegal type of people. But they've been tanking in the polls. And they and the socialists have consistently won less votes. than the P.P. and Box, which are the right-wing parties.

So Sanchez needs to really figure things out. And, like, the last election, he managed to, like, cobble this coalition with, like, minor regional parties by granting amnesty, another amnesty to Catalan separatists. And that's a whole other issue. So, yeah, let's leave that Spanish separatism on the back burner. As you said, I just want to emphasize your point, D6 up here on the screen, that Spanish police had found members of Moroccan intelligence amongst the migrants. This is from El Español in Spain in terms of their investigation into it. But as you said, I do think it will be a very interesting case.

It caused a real diplomatic problem for Sanchez, not just with Morocco, but there were calls to expel or I think temporarily suspend their access to the Schengen, which is the free movement of borders inside of Europe, which would be a dramatic escalation for all the citizens, obviously, Spain kind of defeats the entire purpose of the European Union and exactly the type of thing, as you said, that could invite electoral backlash to him because of how, you know, people in Europe really like that. So, wow, fascinating, fascinating situation. One last one for you, just on the Israel connection here. Some of the speculation I saw is that, you know, Israel in terms of being able to export their own goods, they're, they got some problems in the Red Sea now, to put it mildly.

And so their other alternative route is through the Mediterranean Sea, which, of course, you have to go through the Strait of Gibraltar. So they have great interest in what's going on right there. Do you think that could be part of the motivation for their interest in Seuta here? Yeah, that's a good point. Some analysts have pointed out why Seuta and not Melija? Because Melija is far away from the Strait of Gibraltar itself. The thing is, without Seuta, Spain would have... no control over the straighter, well, I guess arguably, but, you know, the two most important

ports are Gibraltar and say what that. And another thing that reminded me, I'm not sure how much this applies now, but some months ago I saw that Iran had given like Spanish ships passage through the Strait of Hermuda. So yeah, you can imagine that the Israelis and the U.S. have been furious about that. Right. A really good point. Man, fascinating stuff. Really had no idea. All goes back to the Treaty of Lisbon in 1688. Who am I? I'm such a fool for not having learned about it. So thank you very much. Thank you very much.

Decolonial manga. Yeah. Manga third mold. Who was it that said wars or how Americans learn geography? Apparently that applies to us. It's actually true. Genuinely true. Okay.

Thanks, man. Behind every night spent making the kids' lunches, there's a lot of suspense. Will they finally eat the veggies? Will the pesto survive the first bite? Will the lunchbox come home empty, half full, or come home at all? And will you finish episode eight before you're done,

slicing the cucumbers? Get Bell pure fiber internet with craved Netflix and Disney Plus from $94 a month. Price guaranteed for two years on internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Visit bell.ca for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. Bill, why is my eye twitching? Does this mean I'm in perimenopause? Maybe I have adult ADHD. I need to look this up. Where's my phone? Juliana, your phone is hot to the touch. I think it's asking you for a break. You know what? Maybe I should just ask chat GPT.

Or maybe we can ask an actual human. Yes, like a couple sex therapist. Whoa, that escalated quickly, but okay. Because I have questions. We have questions. And I bet everyone has questions. Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms? We do that.

How about this one? Is bribing your kids bad parenting or just negotiating? Oh, and I still do need to know why was my poop green that one time? Hypothetically, right? Okay, well, instead of letting the internet guess, we've got actual people answering these exact questions. And laughing with us has got to be better than spending three hours down a rabbit hole online. Listen to Bill and Juliana. The podcast. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

you listen to your podcasts. I'm Munga shit together and I'm back with a new season of the podcast Skyline Drive. This time I'm diving into a rabbit hole of peptides, organoids, blood boys, blue zones, and brain replacement to try to understand what this longevity obsession is all about. And what it really means to live forever, for all of us. I learned about some rad science. I can make a brain for you, and then we can test what draw is the best for your brain, as opposed to his brain. Here are some hard truths.

I would expect Indians to age faster, but I did not expect it to be almost a four-to-five-year acceleration. And get myself into a world of trouble. I'd say probably start bone smashing. That doesn't work. To make it look more defined. They say it works. I don't know.

Listen to Skyline Drive, How to Live Forever, on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. A major lawsuit here in the United States between the state of New York and Kalshi. Let's put this up here on the screen. Kalshi, now being sued by New York State saying that the prediction market is running a, quote, illegal gambling operation. An illegal unlicensed gambling operation. after Cal she had originally proposed a framework to avoid a lawsuit with the state. Cali basically had come to the state and said, if you allow us to operate, we'll cut you in on revenue. They promised up to $10 billion in revenue for the state on an eventual basis if they

were allowed to have some sort of, allowed some sort of action. The key sticking point is that Calci had proposed a North Carolina 6% tax on trades, while New York State currently has a 23% tax on traditional gambling. So New York, they claim would have raised $10 billion, like I said, over five years, talks broke down, and the state sued. But I do want to focus on that very specifically. This ultimately is about whether prediction markets will be allowed to operate nationwide, as in do states have the right to regulate gambling in their state? Cal she maintains, until the day, you know, until the days long that they are not gambling, that they are prediction market, which is authorized under event contracts, which is written into Dodd-Frank

legislation, which specifically had said there are two things that you're not allowed to trade prediction mark or event contracts on, ergo under that legal framework, which has now been operationalized by the CFTC under Donald Trump, that any other event contract is allowed to be, is allowed to be given nationwide. Thus, states are not allowed to regulate it. However, if you actually look into some of the details, a lot of that begs belief. In my opinion, Let's go to the next one, for example, shall we? This is from Bloomberg, and they just showed. New data shows that parley bets, quote, are burning gamblers, again, as their word there,

as the market booms on Kalshi. So Kalshi likes to operate and to tell us that they are an event-contracting website in which people can hedge risk. They famously, very recently have pointed out an ice cream shop who hedges the risk of rain because their revenue is going to go down, and this guy is able to pay his rent. or a guy who recently hosted a conference, but he wanted to hedge the risk that flights would get canceled and thus make sure that he would make his money no matter what.

The truth, though, is that the vast majority of the contracts being traded on this website are just sports bets. So when we break down, like for example, these parley bets, the very same things, the degenerates are betting on Fandul or Draft Kings, they are losing some, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars. And what we can see in front of here, betters on Kalshi's app and website, since the start of the year, excluding fees have lost a net $294 million.

The losses of these sports of wagers, quote, used to be largely captured by Sportsbook, but the prediction markets are now changing that dynamic by promoting similar trades to their small-time customers, again, the very same type of people who would be using these gambling apps in order to offer them. Of course, they demonstrate and talk to a lot of people who previously were on Fandul, now they're doing it on Kalshi. but if you're doing a quote-unquote combo bet or a parley bet, you are gambling at the end of the day. And Crystal, the reason why I wanted to highlight this is that I'm almost certain about what's going to happen.

This state lawsuit is going to, what Calci is offering is something called preemption. They're moving it to federal court. They've had a mixed bag in terms of court rulings. Their ultimate goal is to get this before the United States Supreme Court. The Supreme Court, which is very libertarian, largely appointed here by Donald Trump, is almost certain to side with the Trump administration. The Trump administration, CFTC, as I said, argues that these prediction markets are explicitly allowed by Dodd-Frank. Thank you to Dodd-Frank, by the way. And what it means is that you can have nationwide event contracts, aka sports gambling. And why is that all

important? Because, first of all, it removes the ability, even though I don't support it, of the state to regulate at all. Number one, like we're talking here about the 23% tax versus the 6% tax, but two, none of us really signed up for this. None of us knew that a Supreme Court case from 2018, and now these websites capitalized with hundreds of billions of dollars, with all kinds of insider trading concerns and others, would make it so that there will be nationwide sports gambling, and there's nothing that any of us can do about it at an individual state level, where at the very least we had previously understood that we had some control. Yeah, no, that's exactly right. There's a reason why Calci is so insistent that this is not gambling. These are futures,

contracts because futures contracts are regulated by the feds. Gambling is regulated by the states. They don't want states, and New York's not the only one, but they don't want states to be able to rein them in and regulate them. They want it to be left all to the federal level and specifically to go to the Supreme Court because they know the libertarian bent there. Now, the flip side of this is you say, okay, well, if it's being regulated by the feds, then does that mean that at the federal level under maybe a different administration, we could

ban or at least control this stuff? But you can bet if there was some law passed through Congress, Supreme Court would probably find a way to say that was unconstitutional as well. And that's where we really get into a failure of democracy that I think people are really experiencing here, not just with gambling, certainly on that front, but also on the AI data center front. There are things that are being done in our country right now that are completely transforming everything from individual communities and states all the way up to the entire. world and the way that labor is going to operate in the economy, that people have had effectively no say in. And so while, you know, with the AI example on the data center front, there's been some local pushback that's been successful. I don't think anyone is under any illusion that nationwide, they're going to build their data centers and they're going to get what they

ultimately want. So it really does contribute to, you know, all of the ills that we've talked about here, the skyrocketing levels of depression, anxiety, suicide, bankruptcy. especially among young men, which have, you know, turned out to be quite a vulnerable demographic. But also in terms of the sense that, you know, society is being changed by oligarchs who stand to profit and make a lot of money. And we're being completely shut out of being able to shape that future and what it looks like at all. Right. Yeah. Can I give everyone a good example, too, for why everyone should just stay off of these? During the World Cup between Argentina and Spain, Cali users traded 30,000 unique San Francisco. game combos, aka Parlay, with many attracting thousands of bets. In the end, fewer than three

percent resolved to yes. What are we doing here? And people willingly throw their money into this. And did anybody else, including me, noticed Salome in his little Calci ad, and then the Calci with stuff all around the World Cup? And, you know, I guess to their credit, they charge less and they make less than the sports book. It doesn't make it any worse. the fact that they're still taking advantage of so many different people, I guess, who are willingly throwing their money away. And to this point, let's put E4 up here on the screen. I mean, this is now the state of the United States. Gambling has now become America's favorite pastime. Americans now spend more on sports bets than movies, art, museums, and music combined.

This happened in an eight-year period from the legalization in 2018 of the 2018 Supreme Court case to 26. That's all it took for basically unfettered, you know, unfettered and exploitative oligarchal capitalism combined with states that completely fell for this nonsense about how great all the tax revenue would be to it becoming more, the most important entertainment. industry in America. And again, how many of us really acquiesced to this? It all just came down to a Supreme Court case. People fell for a lot of lies. We now see an explosion in addiction and in bankruptcy. I've covered dozens of those types of cases. It will only continue to get worse, worse and worse. Actually, much of the polling is beginning to turn against this at the very time that it is becoming a nationwide pastime. So I just encourage, again, everybody to look deep inside and to say, is this actually making our country better?

Or is it a massively extractive tax on the vast majority of working class men? Because that's what it is, if you actually want to look at it empirically. Last thing I want to show you is that even the corrupt NFL thinks that all of this is bad. Let's put, what is it, E5 up here on the screen. Even they came to the feds and they were like, yeah, guys, you need to do more about insider trading. And by the way, this came after there were multiple insider trades that were placed. I think it was by Arizona in the lead up to the draft where a draft insider used his insider information literally to profit tens of thousands of dollars.

Luckily, he was caught. But even the NFL is going to the CFTC today. And again, the same NFL, which is totally in league with the sports gambling companies, and saying that right now, a lot of these prediction markets are not, there are not enough rules that are in place in order to catch insider traders. Kalshi, again, would come to me and say that they hate insider traders and that they go after them. But, you know, you basically have to self-regulate and trust that they themselves would come out and guarantee that they're going to investigate. No private company, obviously, should be able to do that. So I just want to highlight that even

the NFL, who is totally in league with sports gambling, despite, you know, opposing it for decades, even they are going to the feds and saying you're not doing enough to actually punish any potential insider trading, which I do believe will explode massively because even if Kalshi, you know, worries about insider trades, polymarket is still quasi-legal here in the United States and plenty of insider trades get placed there all the time, as we saw with a lot of these accounts that have been happily able to predict what's going on in Iran. So here we are. And Sagar, do you think with the NFL, are they just concerned that you get to a point where no one believes that there's anything really? about the games and that will undermine the value of the league.

Yeah, of course, because they see it firsthand. I just talked about that draft example. You literally had a guy on the draft counsel bet that his team was going to draft the player that they knew they were going to draft. I mean, he's an idiot because he did it so blatantly. But all he had to do was call his brother-in-law or somebody else to go place to trade on a polymarket, nobody would have known. And he would have made himself a ton of money and they could have split the cash.

So if he was just a little bit smarter about it, how would they have been able to catch it. And that's just talking about the draft. Let's talk about the refs. Let's talking about all of the other individual trade bets that they offer. And that's the thing, too. It's not even just about player performance. It's about player movement. It's about, I mean, you know, Love Island, that show that it was just broadcast recently. Kalshi was all over advertising, trying to get women to join on Kalshys so that they could gamble on who's going to win the Love Island finale. I'm sorry. You know what? A producer who's on the show in England or, you know, you know, You know, wherever can't see that market, have access, let's see, to some of the voting data by ITV or peacock or whoever runs the show and can't make a little bit of money on that or call their, you know, cousin, brother or anything?

Again, Kalsi will tell you that they'll catch that person. Do you really trust it? Or should we just not have a market on that? Why should anybody be able to gamble on the Love Island finale? It's complete insanity. We remember, I think it was either Golden Globes or Oscars, which included the odds within it. These are voting decisions that come down to like the Directors Guild of where there's not even that many people and in which the decision is known to a small group who easily could be able

to exploit their information. So at the very basis, it just comes down to these markets shouldn't exist at all, as the NFL is actually kind of hinting at inside of this. And that's as bad. And this is them already being okay with the individual player performance bets, just to give an example of how concern they are about the feds. But it's coming. And that's one of the reasons I want to do this segment is that.

Very soon the Supreme Court is going to side with Calsham, almost 100% sure of it. And this will be absolutely nationwide legal. And unless there is a complete change in the way that we regulate this at the federal level, that is your fate now as a nation. Yeah. And to go back to that piece about how now this betting, gambling is the number one pastime, surpass movie, art, museum, concert, everything all together. I mean, just think about what that means for society.

So instead of actually going to a sporting event, where you're with people, which is a social behavior, you're staying home and placing a bet on your phone. Instead of going to a concert, again, a social activity. You are instead spending that money, like losing that money, just feeding it to, you know, oligarchs who run these companies. So it's a profound shift, and it's happened under our noses, and they're trying to take away our ability to do, to have any say

in whether this is what we want our society to be like. Yeah, exactly. I think that's very well said. Money actually is a literal finite resource. And so if you spend money on something else, then you're not going to have it for this, especially when we're looking at these World Cup bets and you're getting a 3% win rate,

which is so insane. I can't believe that that number is even legal, frankly. So yeah, there we go. Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing and supporting the show. We appreciate it, and we will see you all tomorrow. Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here.

The Dream of the 90s is alive in podcast form. We're launching Podlandia AEO rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters, and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guest stars, collaborators and friends, including director Jonathan Chrysler, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song. Well, I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that.

Listen to Podlandia. A.A.O. Rewatch on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up, y'all? It's your girl, Sam J. And we're the host of everyone watches women's sports, a new podcast from Together and I Heart Women's Sports. We're breaking down the biggest headlines. Naomi Osaka, showing out. Shout house to you, Naomi.

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