Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 9/10/26: Trump Offers $5k Midterm Bribe, Oil Prices Spike Amid Houthi Attacks

Episode Date: September 10, 2026

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump promises $5k checks if GOP wins midterms, oil prices spike after Houthi attacks.   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com    Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. Get Bell Pure Fiber Internet with Crave, Netflix, and Disney Plus from $94 a month. Price guaranteed for two years on Internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Visit bell.ca for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. On the new podcast Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude.

is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinero, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Listen to Solita on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I survived nine months in captivity, and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have to destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the Survivor Files. Every week, I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable, abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. These are stories about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the Survivor Files with Elizabeth Smart on the

IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys, ready or not, 20204 is here, and we, here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, ad staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Trump is hosting his big midterm convention down in Texas, where in perfect Trumpian style, he is the keynote speaker, both nights. So it kicked off last night and he unveiled a new promise to the American people.

Let's take a listen. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in history, we've never had anything like what's happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000. I mean, you could just do it now, since you have Republican majorities, if you actually wanted to do such a thing. But, you know, I'm still waiting on my doge check. I'm still waiting on my tariff rebate check. So this is the third major, I will just give you money,

promise that Trump has made. It's all rolled into one. You get your dividend together, all right? $5,000 dividend. I'm sure that all that. Republicans in Congress definitely support this idea, right? Oh, yeah. Sure, they're lining up to vote for the new $1.2, I think, trillion dollar stimulus this would be. Billy, $1.3 trillion, actually, in terms of, quote, how you're going to pay for it. I believe the justification is that because we've taken in three. How many Iran wars does it cost?

We've taken $300 billion in tariff revenue in. And so that means that we could give out $1.3 trillion in dividend checks. I mean, listen. Ryan joked Democrats should just be like, fuck it, we'll give you 10,000. Absolutely. I mean, you know, I don't hate it. It's like, you know, people have been suffering. You could call it the gas check or something like that.

I mean, I just, the broader political, I mean, number one, it's not happening. So let's just be clear about that. Number two, I don't think people will believe that it's going to happen. Because it's like, okay, again, there have been a lot of promises made that have not been kept in terms of, oh, we're totally going to give you a check. And number two, you do have control right now. So how about you go ahead, if this is something you're serious about, you could go ahead and do it. And then maybe we vote for you because you actually showed some care and concern for the American people versus the things you've been saying routinely, which is that you don't give a shit about the material conditions of the American people. Catherine Rampel over at Washington Post has, or sorry, bulwark has this.

$5,000 stimulus checks were promised via Doge. $2,000 stimulus checks were promised by a tariff dividend. $1,000 checks via a savings from the expiring ACA subsidy. Oh, I forgot about that one. And $5,000 dividend now if Republicans win the midterms. Coincidentally, I believe that this $5,000 would be just enough to make up for the overall price increase that I will pay over the course of a year from the ACA subsidy expiring. So it's just my personal case.

And then how far does it come to the additional gas prices? Of course, you have to wear your cars. I would like a car. It's a little different. Although I paid more for it than most people pay for a gas vehicle. So, yeah, I'm doing all right. But, you know, overall, I don't think that this, look, it comes down to trust. And remember, I think back to Trump literally won the 2020 election if he had been able to pass those final stimulus checks.

You remember this entire thing with the Georgia runoff elections and everything? If Trump had actually promised to just pass a final stimulus check, I genuinely think he would have won the election. And not only that, Mitch McConnell could have easily made sure that neither of those Democrats were able to, to win in those Senate seats if he had allowed that. Now, did Trump use any of his political authority to push that through? No. Ultimately, you know, the Doge did, doge actually didn't save us any money at all. Don't believe me. Believe the official United States government statistics, if you want to go and check that. That's the problem, is that there's a huge trust deficit, and this comes off as desperate whenever it comes to Trump, and especially because

every single one of us knows that Trump is not actually going to put all of his political capital behind this. Now, let's be fair. If he wanted to, he actually could. Remember when Trump promised that he was going to cut all social security tax? He actually did that. Yeah, it worked out for boomers. And everybody was like, oh, yeah, and they put that into the big, beautiful bill. They also did it for no tax on tips, which, you know, I guess give a credit, although it's being horrifically abused right now in terms of the tax code. So you can see how when he wants to do something and actually ram it down people's throats. Yeah.

It can happen. You'd be better off doing it right now. I mean, the United States Senate, they're not even back in session until next Tuesday. I'm pretty sure. Call them back. You have the authority as president. Be like, I'm calling back both houses of Congress. I spoke to Speaker Johnson.

I spoke to Leader Thune. We're immediately going to advance this legislation. And every American will get it on no, when's the election day, November 5th, on November 4th? With his name on it. Who gives a shit? Sure, yeah. I mean, remember in 2020, part of how it was so close when all the polls had it being a total blowout was because he'd sent out stimulus checks during COVID with his name on it. And we covered those Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley who were like, I don't know.

It seemed pretty good to me. I got this check with his name on it. So I'm voting for him again. So, you know, it can be very powerful. I think he learned that lesson. But when your approval rating is in the toilet and you've already done the like, I'm going to give you checks things repeatedly. and then it hasn't come through. I don't know how powerful this is going to be.

Another thing that was very significant here is that he said specifically that you should act as if I am on the ballot, which we'll talk about it on the other side, but it's kind of an interesting thing to say at a time when you're hovering in like the low 30s with your approval rating with the American public. This is D1. Let's take a listen.

The choice in this election is very, very simple. Democrats are asking you to vote for failed, far-left agenda. It's never work that destroyed your finances and delivered you four years of disaster, bedlam and death under Sleepy Joe Biden. And I'm asking you to let us finish the job we began with the greatest two years in the history of the presidency. This has been the most successful two years financially and every other way in the history of the presidency. So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot.

I'm on the. Just one more time. Because if we lose, you're going to lose your border. You're going to lose your tax cuts. You're going to lose your safety and security. You're going to lose your wealth. Our country is going through hell. You will be going through hell just like you did just two years ago.

Go through hell like you did two years ago. Huh. How's it going right now? If you ask most Americans, they'll say that they are financially worse off and worse off in general under the Trump presidency. So it's pretty wild to say it's been the most successful two years in the history of the presidency. And he's not wrong that it is sort of like he's on the ballot. I mean, it will be a referendum on him. I'm not sure that it's smart for him politically to completely own that.

Just as you remember when Obama said with Hillary, act as if I'm on the ballot and then she loses. Well, you know, that is a bit of a referendum on you and how people felt about the legacy of your presidency. in my very first rising monologue ever. I remember that. My name went on the ballot. Justice is on the ballot. That's why you got to go out and vote for Hillary. Yeah.

Well, yeah, it doesn't really work out for Mr. Trump. I do think I really is fascinating to me that he survives what is at the 90 criminal charges. He survives everything the media ever threw at him. He survives literally a decade in public life. Stormy Daniels, Access Hollywood, Charlottesville, I mean, January. I could go on forever. And every single one he comes out stronger. He wins the popular vote, probably one of the most stunning victories in modern American history,

in terms of expectation versus reality. First Republican to do so since 2004, unambiguously has literally the culture, like on his side. How did it all just go like this? It really is Iran. Like, if you take a look, I'm not saying that he wasn't unpopular or divisive, but in my opinion, you know, prior to Iran, this would have been one of those classic elections where you're going to get blown out in the House, 2018 style. But those closer Senate races, they're in contention. I think Ken Paxton wins easily if there is, not easily, but two to three points. It's a Beto style versus Ted Cruz.

Tala Rico raises a lot of money. But the scenario that we're in right now is one where with Iran, he actually just can't wriggle his way out. Like, period. It is one where it is genuine checkmate. It's a disaster. As you and I are recording right now, our friend Rory, I mean, Brent crude oil is at $105 a barrel right now. Right now, today. That means diesel is over $6 a gallon, which is the highest price on record.

Gasoline price. Let me just check. retail gas, actual price. It's 427 national. There's not even a lot of bombs that are flying around. You know, there's not even active war. Average price in California, $5.89, there'll be a six bucks, probably in the next week. I mean, this is crushing. And it's been six months of this, and everybody knows they've got nothing. They have zero solution to this entire thing. Yeah. That's, I think, you know, there's something really profound about that. You know, obvious historical lesson.

I've just, all these people have been a big French revolution kick, reading a lot about Napoleon. And it's just kind of amazing. You know, it's just like, you roll the dice, you win, you roll the dice, you win, you roll it in, you're like, God, this man can't be stopped. And then you roll into Moscow and you're like, oh, actually you can't be stopped. Yeah, it turns out you can. It's the same thing here.

It really is the, it's like the most ever-present lesson in all of history. It makes sense in a way sort of poetically that Trump would be the author of his own destruction, that no one else could really do it. He had to author his own destruction. Just like Hitler, just like Napoleon. That's exactly what has happened here. And I would say it is the Iran war is the biggest factor. I don't think we should underestimate, though, how much people hated the tariffs.

Remember when we were – people hated the tariffs. And especially when you look at how many of these Senate races are in the Midwest, where they're getting hurt both by the tariffs and by the Iran War, and suddenly Kansas is in place, suddenly Nebraska's in place. suddenly Iowa is like lean D. At this point, obviously Michigan's going to be a key state as well. Ohio is a key state as well. When you look at those states and how important not only they're onward, but the terrorists have been to their entire economic base, I think you put the two of those together. And that is also really when people started to have a negative view of Trump

and his handling of the economy. Because previously that had been his biggest strength is people, oh, he's a businessman, he knows what to do. It's going to be great. It was when he did Liberation Day and the whole thing was insane and it didn't make any sense and it didn't work and it just increased costs and created all of this chaos that people really had that foundational view of Trump shaken. And then it's been just a steady slide since then with obviously the Iran war and the attendant price increases there being a complete and utter disaster. There were a couple of other interesting moments at this GOP convention. First of all, let's put DZO up on the screen. just to give you a sense of the vibes. There was a lot of empty seats.

I think this was towards the beginning, but there were videos from right in the midst of things. Most of those bottom seats were filled in, but you had a lot of empty space there. There's a lot of reporting on the scene that the vibes are pretty bad. In advance, had a lot of reporting about the number of Republican politicians

that were like, I'm good, I'm busy campaigning at home, good luck. So that's why you had last night at the convention, It was like Scott Bessent speaking and whatever Trump administration. I think Don Jr. has a speaking slot as well. Trump is headlining both nights. Trump this morning claims, quote, the overall numbers beat the NFL. There is no universe where the RN.

So let's split screen. Sam Darnold entry, Drake May choking like an idiot, split screen with Donald Trump and his 11 p.m. Prime Time speech. I'm just waiting for the numbers to come. out. I think the over, the over under, if you will, is around 40 million viewers who probably watched the game. And I would be willing to bet if you stopped a guy on the street and said, did Donald Trump speak last night? He'd be like, what are you talking about? You know, he'd be like, what? Get Bell, Pure Fiber Internet with Crave, Netflix, and Disney Plus from $94

a month, price guaranteed for two years on internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Visit bell.com for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and held captive for nine months. I survived, and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart, and these are the Survivor Files. I just remember this low, taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week, I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up, without a doubt, he was going to hurt me.

I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed, and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. There's stories about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the Survivor Files with Elizabeth Smart on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.

I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinero, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people, and they were like, you smiled at us. Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is, and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or wake up to a new version of yourself.

So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or a real show you. wherever you get your podcasts. We also, let's put, is this a V-O, the D3B? No, it's a sot. So this bizarre, in the whole Hassan Piker discourse, the Republicans decided to include in their montage of like Democrats are bad and evil,

some images of Hassan Piker, including one that's this like thirst trap of him in his underwear that he posted on Instagram at some point. Let's take a look at that. It has moved away from Democrats in its own party. I am not going to be in the same party with a son, I can tell you that right now. The funniest part of that is how they, like, blur the underwear.

Yes, right. I don't know. I would love to have a word with the person who put that montage together and know the psychology that went in. I have some suspicion. I have some ideas around how that one got in there. It has to do with, I think, didn't Grindr crash? Grindrash again, yeah, as usual, during major Republican events. So, all right.

We'll effort Benny Johnson to give us. Let's slow down on the psychology there. So let's get to, what is it? Well, we've got Federman. John Federman decided that he would also make a virtual appearance because we all know he's too lazy to actually travel to Texas. So he sent in a video on behalf of his bestie, the Republican Senator Dave McCormick from Pennsylvania.

This is D3. Let's take a listen to that. A big room of Republicans in Dallas. Yes, I'm Senator John Federman, Pennsylvania. Yes, I'm a Democrat. Why am I here talking to you today? Because, well, I'm a common sense Democrat. I'm always going to stand with America. I'm always going to reject the extremes and socialism and that anti-American way of life. Dave McCormick is the kind of senator that gets the job done and he's going to fight for Pennsylvania. I'm proud to count him as my friend. Right back over my shoulder. That's the iconic. U.S. Steel Mill.

And that's exactly the kind of thing that will work together and will work with President Trump to fight and defend the steel way of life right here in the Steel Valley. I have this opportunity to introduce this great American, a great senator, and yes,

he's in a different party, but I'm proud to count him as my great friend. So for everybody in Dallas, I'm here to introduce Dave McCormick. So there you go. John Fetterman, inspiring stuff there for the Republican convention.

He put a statement out this morning. He said, in no way am I switching parties. In no way, you know, I'm proud to be the 51st. I would be proud to say it be the 51st senator. We are in different parties. We are both on Team PA. We have delivered hundreds of millions of dollars back to Pennsylvania with the steel way of life. I'm a lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly with my party. And should the Senate flip in November, I will still be the 51st vote that I ran on. So he claims I will not be switching parties. whatsoever. I actually, I really don't think he would switch parties. I think there is nothing he would love more than being the John, the Joe Mansion, you know, up or down. Every media organization in the world has to hang on to his every word. Schumer has to, you know, take him out to lobster dinners.

And every lobbyist in town is to shower him with cash. I mean, this is his dream. But I think for Democrats, I mean, he will also delight in any time there is a close vote where he's the swing vote. Oh, he'll vote, no. He will vote for the Republican, with him. Republicans every time that it actually matters. So it does change the calculus in terms of how many seats Democrats actually have to win to have a functioning majority because you definitely can't rely on this guy that much is for sure. Let's go ahead and put D5 up on the screen, the significant polling in terms of where we are politically. This was pretty noteworthy. You know, one of the things that really was a tell that Trump was likely to win reelection in 2024 was that Republican

identification for the first time was outpacing Democratic identification. You had more people who were saying they're Republicans and Democrats. That historically has not been the case. Now things have reversed, and not only have they reversed, but they have reversed to the point that now you have Democrats with a sizable lead over Republicans, a six-point lead over Republicans in terms of party identification. So things have really, really switched around there. And then we also, just again, in the sign of the Times, let's put this D6 up on the screen.

It's the latest poll out of Texas, which is where, of course, this convention is being held. This has Tala RICO up on Paxton by five points, 48, 43, very close to a majority there, very close to hitting that 50% benchmark for Tala Rico as well. This is not obviously the only poll that shows this. There's basically every poll that comes out has Tala RICO narrowly leading Paxton. There have been very few that have Paxton up at all in the state Greg Abbott also seems to be under significant pressure. And I think to Saugers point, I mean, this would not be a possibility. No. And with Paxton being a scandal plague and all the problems with him, et cetera, this would not be in play.

It would not be, you know, with Tala Rico. I think at this point you have to say has the edge in the race, if not for the Iran war. Right. So there's 7% undecided. So it's not like Paxton can't win if he wins all those. people, but we also just have never seen a modern campaign where you do win 100% of undecided, which makes it literally a game of within 0.5 or 0.6%. Trump also literally said, you know, I'm going to campaign with Ken Paxton. Also, Ken Paxton took the stage yesterday. Didn't exactly

light the whole thing on fire. Trump did his whole stick again of like, exactly. I like how he looks, throw he talks, throw he dresses. You may not like anything about him, but he votes the right way. You're like, okay. I mean, you know, not a particularly great endorsement. He's got a money disadvantaged. Remember, he needs the MAGA super PACs to come in and bail his ass out on campaign. That's a big problem because you don't have major control over how the ads on all of that are being cut. And look, Texas, like I said, it's a little bit different because genuinely there are people in Texas right now,

one of the few places in America who are printing generational wealth off of the situation in Iran. Like if you work in the port of Houston, you are having. a bonanza. If you are in the West Texas oil fields or any of these guys, you are actually at the prime of your career. But tens of millions of people, it's no longer the state like it was when I grew up as a much more dynamic economy. It's not all oil and gas. Has technology, has normal, you know, everyday type jobs. Those people are all still suffering. Let me see what the gas price is in Texas. Still 383 a gallon, not exactly cheap, especially down there. So you put that together and high inflation, high cost of living, even in a state, which predominantly was like, you know, it was like

a banner for a place to move to escape kind of the problems of some of the California, New York, or any of those types of places. There's just enough there, along with Democratic enthusiasm, for Tala Rico to come and to really be able to like seize on this. And I've been watching him, you know, I'll give the guy credit. Tala RICO, he went on Fox News yesterday. He had, he has no compunction, walking in to what he knew would be an adversarial interview. And he said, yeah, I said some stupid stuff about six genders. And the reason why they want to talk about that is because diesel is $6 a gallon. I mean, you know, not my cup of tea.

It's a decent line. It's decent enough, I think, you know, exactly. It's decent enough from what I can see to be able to capture exactly the type of person, let's say the white 48-year-old mom who traditionally votes Romney. has never particularly like Trump, you know, decides to go ahead and vote for it or sat out the election. It's just sitting there and is like, I just can't stand Trump. So pissed off about this. Pissed off about grocery prices.

And, you know, this Tala Rico stuff, I don't love it. You know, we talk about it at church. But he says something like that. He goes, she's like, okay, maybe, you know. And you could just see that repeat across the spectrum. I think the big question will be how that Latino vote, Rio Grande Valley, Latino vote, is swings. According to this poll, they are massively going for it. Tala Rico, but it's a very hard population to poll. You know, previous shifts there haven't really been

captured by pollsters. So I think it's something you should be skeptical about. And it's a population that is more culturally conservative. So some of those statements, your Republicans are hoping that some of those statements are going to sit poorly with that community. And Trump is probably hoping that he'll be able to recreate the stimulus check magic that he had in the past and that that will bring some of them back over to the Republican side. But all of the indicators, are that there's been a huge swing away from Trump and the Republicans among Latinos specifically in this election. And I really think that will be the determining factor in terms of whether or not Tala RICO is going to be able to win because this is probably the largest sort of swing demographic

in the country. You know, they're not diehard Democrats who are just going to be excited to come out and vote. You need more than that in Texas in order to win. He's going to need to win these more independent minded, you know, minded voters. And so I really think that could be the key for this. I have no, have no compunction of even trying to predict how these people vote. Because they go from Hillary plus 48 to Trump plus 2 to Trump plus 50 back to Democrat. I'm like, I have no idea how they vote. I'm done even trying to analyze it. The basics of what I could see was that it was stimulus checks at the beginning.

Then it became kind of a cultural liberalism rejection. Then they became hawks on immigration. now they're doves on immigration, I can't figure these people out. So I don't know how they're going to vote. They may not vote, period. But yes, they are a very critical constituency. I still think that the biggest thing in Tala Rico's favor is the demographic change in the state. I just can't overstate.

I mean, the state that I grew up in just does not exist anymore. These hundreds of thousands of people who are all from California or from New York, who've all moved in. I mean, I'm not saying that they overwhelm in terms of numbers, but that is exactly, if you want somebody who's going to crawl over broken glass to vote, who's going to go door knock for you, who's going to come and staff your campaign meetings and hand out donuts and all this stuff. Like, that's who you need really on your side. I think that's really at, the wind is at his back on in that front more than anything from what I can see. It's just enough of a core constituent

base to be able to try and build some sort of a coalition. I still got my eye on Gina Hinoza as well. I don't think Abbott is in any way safe in this election. I think if there's a wave, I think he very easily could lose by point one or point two, something like that. Not nearly as much as Paxton, but it is definitely in like a one and six type possibility. No, it would be insane. I mean, she'd be the first Democrat. What's just? Anne Richards to be the governor of the state, which is nuts.

If you know, I think that was, what, 1988? So, way before even I was born. Get Bell, Pure Fiber Internet with Crave Netflix and Disney Plus from $94 a month. Price guaranteed for two years on internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Visit bell.ca for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and held captive for nine months. I survived, and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them.

I'm Elizabeth Smart, and these are the Survivor Files. I just remember this low, taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week, I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up, without a doubt, he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed, and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. There's stories about what it takes to make it out alive.

Listen to the Survivor Files with Elizabeth Smart on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinero, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people, and they were like, you smiled at us. Not a lot of people smile around here.

It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is, and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first. trip. I hope you listen to Solita on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's turn now to Iran, very fast-moving developments. We're going to start with this. The Houthis have now seized a very strategic port, actually in Yemen. Let's put this up here on the screen. Our friend Glendison highlights this with an excellent map so you can see the overall significance. The Houthis have now captured Moka on the Red Sea coast. This is a strategic

piece of real estate, 65 to 75 kilometers north of the Babal Mandab Strait, which will make the blockade much more efficient. If the term mocha sounds, you know, familiar to you, that is literally the origin, that place, mocha of the mocha. Yes. Yemen. Yemen, has a very, very important doesn't just sound delicious. No, it literally is named off of it. Mocha is, Moka and Yemen actually has a very important part in coffee history. Recommend the book called caffeine, if you were ever interested. But returning to what's happening here, the reason why it is very important is that the Yemeni port, being so close to the Babamandep straight, of course, gives them significant more ability to project power in the state,

to be able to use some of their shoulder-fired missiles, mines, any of the other things that they want to deploy, not even just cruise missiles, in some cases they've been able to fire over a thousand, and kilometers, actually, into Bab al-Manda. It also comes on the heels of some stunning new data, actually out of Saudi Arabia, which I believe that we do have. Let's put, yes, F5 up here on the screen, which shows how Yemen tilts toward full-scale war as the Saudi and the Houthi clashes escalate. So our friend, Roy Johnson, actually highlighted this this morning.

The data out of Saudi Arabia, which is also mentioned here in the New York Times article, is stunning. The official Saudi numbers reflect their lowest level of crude export or production from 1990, which is insanity. He says the most interesting part is the direct communication from Saudi Arabia, and the official numbers reflect Saudi supply to market. Riyadh also says that actual production has crashed in August as a result of the Houthi maritime ban, which has mucked up and rerouted Saudi logistics and tax that have hit infrastructure. So when you put these two things together, that is genuinely shocking. All of it is now putting and showing up in the oil market this morning. Let me just make sure as of the exact moment that I'm speaking. Yep, Brent is now sitting at $105 per barrel. So again, translates a 430,

roughly national in terms of your gasoline average. the diesel prices are going nuts, $200 a barrel, as I mentioned earlier. So we are, we're not in crisis territory yet, but things are tipping into some serious problems here where there's just enough now happening on the battlefield that you can see how things are marching towards a genuine crisis point. And it's funny. I almost made a joke this morning. I'm like, oh, the Houthis took a territory.

Saudi Arabia should try bombing them. That'll work. Right. Maybe we should get involved. That's so far for us. We've only tried to bomb them for the last, what, 12 years or something like that. And the fact that they're able to have this amount of success on the battlefield, I mean, it's crazy. Yeah, completely.

And reports are this morning they were able to recapture this strategic island, Zucar Island, in the Southern Red Sea. Again, these are all incredibly important strategic positions in terms of control over the Bob El Mondeb Street. There's another island right there that they're apparently. working to take control over, so they very much seem to have the upper hand in this highly significant offensive, which obviously matters for them and for their war with Saudi Arabia and with the other internationally recognized Yemeni government, but also has major implications in terms of the Iran war and what you're paying at the gas pump. In addition, we've got this information who put F zero up on the screen. There was this huge, obviously, exchange of fire between the U.S.

and Iran the other day. We now have some information, courtesy of CBS News. news about the damage that the American side suffered in those strikes. So they say multiple American military aircraft suffered damage in strikes overnight on this airbase in Jordan. One A10 Thunderbolt, known as the Wardhawk, was struck and left with a missing wing. Roughly eight F-15 sustained light damage were placed back into service, according to us. American forces in Jordan launched more than 30 Patriot missiles defending against the Iranian strikes. I would guess very much that is an undercount. The overnors, the overnorses. The overnorses night damage came after the U.S. attack five Iranian tankers in retaliation. So I'm talking about

significant military aircraft damaged here. And another thing that's noteworthy is that Iran had, the IRGC had put out this very similar analysis of what they had been able to strike. So this is effectively confirmation of what the IRGC had been saying about the success of their attack. A couple of military analysts this morning noting that this is actually the first time that they have been able to hit some of these aircraft, these specific aircraft on the ground. They knew immediately what they had hit, which shows that they had satellite imagery. Of course, we already knew that because China and Russia have been supplying them with a lot of this. And they have some of their own through a sharing agreement that they have with some of these Chinese satellite companies.

They were able to publish a damage assessment. And it also shows you why we fired so many of those damn Patriot missiles. So like, let's take a look, F-15 cost. What are we looking at? 117 million. So eight of them, which are damaged, the full cost, 117 million. That's about a billion dollars with an aircraft there, which just took a little bit of damage. The A-10, God bless it, is much cheaper, my favorite airplane. But you can actually still see how to knock a wing off of an aircraft. I mean, that's not even something the Taliban was ever able to do in 20 years of war in Afghanistan, especially in a, you know, in a targeted strike like this. So 30 Patriot missiles, by the way, they say more than 30. So the real number could be 60. Each Patriot is what?

Four million something. So four times 30, minimum of 120 million in a single five minute salvo, more likely 60, so about a quarter billion that we just set on fire, not even to mention the replacement timeline and the cost. I mean, what are we doing? This whole thing is total insanity. and just shows the problem. By the way, the fact that they're able to hit all these things in Jordan, which is far away from Iran, if you want to take a look at a map, should show you how even moving outside of the immediate Gulf area doesn't mean that any of these things are safe.

Yeah, and I was reading this morning, too, they're using these more maneuverable missiles. It's making it harder for us to be able to shoot them down, and there have been a lot of close calls in terms of not just the space, but also our warships in the region. Trump is claiming that the war. is going to end right after the midterms, that Iran is determined to hit us hard. It is interesting that this latest conflagration was right after Labor Day, which is like the traditional start

of the campaign season. I have no doubt the Iran is focused on the midterms and trying to force a political price on Trump. The idea that they're just going to stop after the midterm seems a little bit far-fetched to me, but that's what Trump is pushing. Let's play F-1. I think the war will end immediately after the election. Because they can't hold. out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon. All they want is a nuclear weapon. And if they had a nuclear weapon, the whole world is in deep trouble. But apparently his advisors are seeing things quite differently. Put F1B up on the screen.

This is a scoop from the Wall Street Journal. You have Vance and Rubio in particular telling him that the Iran war may last through the end of his presidency. And of course, they have great interest because they're thinking about, oh, when I'm campaigning for president in 2028, how is that going to go for me? And if the Iran war is continuing to drag on

and gas prices continue to be sky high and all of the attendant other issues that come with the war, that's probably going to be a pretty difficult political landscape. Or if they do win, I mean, this is the shit sandwich that you have to eat on day one in the Oval. I mean, yeah, look,

In closed doors, the discussions come as Trump says that the war will end immediately, but that honestly, Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and under military tactics, extending the conflict past inauguration day in January 2029. Now, Iran would never, you know, intentionally hold a hostage or a conflict all the way up until inauguration day, would they? Would they? That's never happened before. If you don't know what I'm talking about,

it's literally what they did in the hostage crisis in 1970 or 1980, I guess. So, yeah, I don't think it takes a genius to figure that one out. And in fact, that's genuinely going to be their best strategy. I also think that the fact that they're raising that in the Oval Office demonstrates

how they're trying to prepare him for what the reality of what I think he wants to do looks like, is he wants to keep the blockade going forever. He wants to have some sort of semblance of victory. And in fact, I mean, the most likely scenario is an escalation on the Iranian side of some kind midterms are a disaster. Trump has to spend probably 95% of his time just stopping investigations in the House and the Senate, impeachments, all this other crazy stuff that's happening. So what do you do? You try to reclaim the narrative by escalating the war or by taking control of foreign policy, which ultimately you're

the commander in chief. I mean, it's a very natural thing for most White House. They become obsessed with foreign policy because they can't do anything in Congress. This would be that to the end degree. Yeah, that in the ballroom. And the ballroom, sorry, I forgot. The Supreme Court has also said, sure, you can go ahead and keep building until we get around to. I mean, there's a lot of, you know, to give context, like with Clinton, you know, there was this entire conspiracy at the time that the reason that he, I think either bombed bin Laden in response. to the embassy attacks was because of the Lewinsky scandal or that he tried to handle it, or he was distracted, I think, from the terrorism threat at the time. So it's not like it doesn't

happen. It's a very common second term story, except here you're going to dial it all the way back up. My only point just is that, you know, things are moving in a very bad direction with $105 barrels, with the Babal Mandep straight and the Port of Moka now falling to Yemen's Houthis. They have no ability to constrain them. Obviously, a Saudi bombing campaign is not going to work. know because they tried. An American bombing campaign is not going to work. And if it did, it would have to stop. They would have to take resources away from the blockade. Aircraft are all being damaged. They claim that they're back in service. Who knows whether any of that's true. Things are really reaching. I wouldn't say crisis point yet, but all the script right now is

being written. Not good. All right. Thank you guys so much for watching. Appreciate it. Friday show for everybody tomorrow. See you then. On the new podcast Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Listen to Solita on the I Heart Radio.

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