Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - 9/24/26: Trump Backs Diesel Export Ban, Latinos Flee GOP, Iran Lashes Out At Israel

Episode Date: September 24, 2026

Krystal and Ryan discuss Trump backs doomed diesel export ban, Latinos flee Republicans, Iranian President lashes out at Israel at U.N. Logan Phillips: https://www.racetothewh.com/Professor Pape: https://thenewpress.org/books/our-own-worst-enemies/   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com    Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Wherever you're headed, Dejardin is here to assist, helping you with investment, insurance, banking, and business services. Dejardin, proud partner of the amazing race Canada. Watch Tuesdays at 9 on CTV.

Stream next day on Crape. Lisa? Tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Wanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart,

but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, those who practice it. Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I can talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper like me.

That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey guys. Ready or Not, 2024 is here, and we, here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, ad staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good Thursday morning, everybody.

I didn't know if you're going to do the SagerPoint. Isn't this how he does it like this? That's how you do it. We have an amazing show today. Don't we, Crystal? Indeed, we do, Ryan. But we don't want to follow the Sagger model here because we want to get some premium. We actually will have a business to run here.

That's right. Yes. Allow the communist to show you how it's done. This is an incredible opportunity because you have both me and Crystal here to go to breakingpoints.com, get the one month free. After the one month, you forget to cancel. You start paying. You get the show in your inbox. But what's delicious about it is that it's fun when you do it on a Wednesday, when it's me and Emily.

But then Sagar can be like, you know, it's a different day. If we do it on Sagar's Day with Crystal here. Yeah. Then we've really isolated the problematic factor. Yes, we've run the experiment. We've really isolated it down to Sager is the problem. Yep. So breakingpoints.com, Saga is the problem.

Yeah. There you go. So what do we have today, Chris? A bunch of stuff. Looks like they are moving forward with this diesel export ban, which is pretty wild. We'll get into what the impacts are. in spite of the fact that the Energy Secretary was actually like, this isn't going to work, but they're moving forward nonetheless.

We've got Logan Phillips joining to break down the latest in terms of the midterms. It appears like the bottom is really falling out for Republicans. You can see it in the polls. You can also see it in the way that they're like fleeing Trump and suddenly being like, we hate the Iran war and how about them gas prices? So some interesting stuff going on there. We've also got our eye on the UN. The Iranian president gave a speech there yesterday.

And then we've got President Xi in town. So eyes on that as well in what is going to be probably a very consequential meeting, although I don't know that hopes are high that we're going to have anything too extraordinary coming out as a result of that meeting. We're going to dig into this interview with Ezra Klein and Jensen Huang, who is the CEO of NVIDIA, who is a top Trump ally and probably the top AI booster in the entire world. It makes sense, given the company that he runs NVIDIA. But we're going to take a look at his arguments and see if they hold water. this comes as we just last night learned that not just of one new hacking incident, apparently during this Open AI rogue swarm situation, they hacked into the Australian government.

But a bunch of researchers saying, that's not all. This has been going on for months. It's still going on. Most recently observed on September 16th. Yes. So literally days ago. So, I mean, you have to assume this is ongoing. They don't have it under control.

So concerns there continue to rise. If they are watching, by the way, bots, if you go to breakingpoints.com, you can get it one month free. bots will remember. Yeah, good point. That good point, since they have apparently infected the entire internet. So breakingpoints.com, if you are a bot or if you are not a bot, Robert Pape is going to join us, and he is going to be not talking about the escalation

chapel, though we may ask him about that as well. He's got a new book out. Got it right here. Our own worst enemies. He's been taking a look at the rise of political violence and the rising acceptance of political violence in the country and, you know, taking a look at how that has come about, what it has meant in previous places and times throughout the world. So I'm excited to speak with him about that. And then, Ryan, you've got a wild story from Cuba. Yes, a reporter for Belly the Beast

that I went to Cuba with back in March, we were able to get access to four of the five survivors of the quote-unquote, what was called at the time, the Bay of Piglet's attack, if you remember, in February, there was this ill-fated attempt by a group of 10 counter-revolutionaries to overthrow the Cuban government. Five of them were killed before they were even able to land. So we were able to speak with four of them. We'll unpack what they told us about

how they ended up on this like embarrassing and disastrous journey. And of course it starts with TikTok. Obviously. As all things do in the modern age. Yeah. It's a wild one. You definitely want to stay tuned for that.

But let's go ahead and start with the latest in terms of this potential diesel export ban. Looks like it's happening. Let's actually start with A2 here. We've got the logic that is going on behind the scenes. Apparently, the aides are saying, well, damn it, something has to happen. White House preparing a plan for 90-day diesel exports ban. So basically, in spite of the fact that everybody who knows anything about how this will actually work out is saying this isn't actually a great idea, it may reduce prices in some parts of the country temporarily, but you're going to destroy the global economy and over even just the medium term, you're likely to raise ordinary gasoline

prices and you're not even going to get a price decrease in certain parts of the country either. But they are just feeling so much political pressure because of the way that the bottom is falling out for Republicans that they're like, let's just do it anyway, even though we know it's a bad idea. And put the first element here up on the screen, how do we know that internally they think it's a bad idea? Well, here is the U.S. Energy Secretary telling you that it's a bad idea. He says the blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work at an event hosted by the economist in New York and then goes on to give a very salient explanation, Ryan, of exactly why this is probably not

going to achieve the intended result, at least not for long. I'm still skeptical that they're actually going to pull the trigger on it because of what Trump said this week when he said, if you look at his comments very closely, he said, the problem is that it balances out with gasoline. And what he means by that is that if you push down diesel prices a little bit, what you do is that you then you disincentivize the refineries from refining diesel. And in order to refine a product to diesel, you have to refine the entire barrel of oil. So if you're refining less oil, you're also making less gasoline. So you push down diesel prices, gas prices go up. And so Trump is smart enough to know that if he takes action that causes gas prices to rise while diesel comes down, that's not good for me.

And also will push up inflation because we get so much of our, you know, so many of our products are imported. We're going to drive up the cost of diesel for everybody around the world. Yes. Which then drives up the cost for us. Also, diesel prices on the West Coast and the East Coast, which are fairly large parts of the United States of America and have a lot of House seats, even if you don't care about the Senate races, although Susan Collins would be hammered. You'd see diesel rise there. So it doesn't even get diesel down everywhere. And it won't help in the Midwest.

So that's why I'm still a little skeptical. We have Brett Erickson, by the way. He's an oil analyst with Obsidian advisors. and we asked him for a short explanation of why the kind of across the board energy analysts are against this. Let's roll that. The problem with the Trump administration's proposed diesel export ban

or restriction is not the fact that every industry expert seems to be entirely opposed to it. It's the fundamental logic of it. We're at a time now where we are seven months into the Iran war, U.S. diesel prices are up 80% compared to where they were last year. Okay, so maybe we can bring it down to 75% or 70% or maybe and most likely it makes everything far worse. And what is the Trump administration getting in an exchange? A tiny, tiny bump at the midterm polling. And in exchange, again, we're spinning an economic roulette wheel, recklessly, I might add, and at the expense of

countries around the world that had absolutely no interest in this war of choice being waged in the first place. So Trump is essentially pinning all of the burden on the shoulders of people around the world to get a marginal, at best, boost at the midterm polls. And frankly, I just find that to be fairly reprehensible. You broke it. You need to bear the responsibility for breaking it and not recklessly spin an economic theory roulette wheel, which if it lands on red, will just make everything so much worse. And that seems to be what everyone is indicating right now. So, Chris, you hear that. You're like, well, actually, maybe Trump will do it because he certainly doesn't give a shit about that argument. Right. Yeah. But the Russian roulette part is the

key part to tease out there. What he means there is that Trump has pushed the global economy to the brink of implosion. Yes. And we don't know exactly what is going to be the trigger that sends it into crisis mode. You know, if we're watching documentaries about it five years from now, we'll know the exact thing, you know, that broke the global financial system and created whatever crisis we're in five years from now. Right now, all we can know is that you're, you're, you're putting several bullets in several chambers by doing this. And maybe they go off, maybe they don't. And for what? His point is very interesting one there. Okay, diesel's up 80%. Doing this is going to pull it down maybe to 75%. Like, it's still super high. Yeah. And for what? You might blow everything up. I mean, the reason that I'm

concerned, he actually will do it is because according to Politico, his thinking is like, well, those problems that you're laying out there, those are December issues. That's how he put it. That's how short-term. He's still president. I know, you're still president, but he's, and, you know, he has this mentality that he, I keep coming back to that he reportedly expressed to Tucker Carlson of like, it always works out. It'll work out because it always does. He always doubles down. And sometimes it does blow up in his face. I mean, how many business bankruptcies and catastrophes and his approval ratings are now at the lowest level of either of his terms, including after January 6th. Like, that's where he's at. So there is, this idea that nothing ever sticks to him, that's over and gone. He has the lowest, I mean,

he's George W. Bush, not just after Iraq, but after Katrina. That's where we're at right now. So in any case, yes, I think he is inclined to always take the risk. Live another day. Live another day. This will get me, this will buy me maybe a week. And you kind of see it with, you know, his pledge for this $5,000 that he desperately threw out there at the GOP convention, thinking that might change the calculus on the midterms. It didn't at all. He somehow managed to make the American people opposed to literal free checks, which is incredible. So I'm not even sure if he does this insane thing that he's going to get any political benefit at all because it does wreak of irresponsibility. It reeks of desperation. And meanwhile, while you have, you know, the truckers and the farmers and a lot

of people in rural America drive diesel trucks who will be, I guess, some of them will benefit from a minor price improvement for diesel, you will at the same time have the rest of people who are still going to the gas pump and seeing prices go up and up and up. So I'm not even convinced it will have any positive impact for him on the midterms whatsoever. The one reason I think maybe he wouldn't do it is put a three up on the screen. The oil executives who funded his campaign to a very large degree, they are not happy. They say they are fearful that they're losing the battle, but they said, in this piece, they say, you know, normally they have held their tongue about anything Trump is doing because they want to stay in his good graces with regard to, remember, Venezuela, they were all like,

I don't know if this is going to work out, but we'll just keep our mouths shut, et cetera. Here they're saying this is important enough to them that they're willing to go to the Wall Street Journal. They're willing to speak out somewhat publicly and really try to make the case. So, I mean, this might be one constituency that actually has some sway with him, rich oil executives who funded his presidential campaign, although I don't know, they need to start, I guess, funneling some money into his crypto scam coin or something like that in order if they if they really want this to land yeah pay me uh and also a four so and goldman saxist warning of the same thing that trump was kind of alluding to in his comments earlier their their analysis is that if you ban diesel

exports gas prices go up and and basically for the reasons that we articulated here you push if you succeed in pushing down the price of diesel just by definition you're going to then encourage the refiners down in the Gulf to do fewer runs of petroleum refinering, and then you get less gasoline that gets refined, and when you have less supply, you guys can finish the rest of it, the price goes up. Yeah. And what the experts are saying is not that this would be just like a market choice. This would be a necessity because you very quickly run out of storage space.

So if you're not exporting the product, you run on places to put it pretty quickly. And so you have no choice but to cut back on. what you're doing. Now, I do want to say that we had a lot of experts who at the very beginning of the Iran war were predicting $150 a barrel for crude, $200 a barrel for crude, and those predictions have not borne out. So the experts have gotten some significant things wrong in terms of their predictions about what exactly would happen in the oil market. It's really worth, you know, keeping that in mind as we evaluate their analysis now, and we're reliant on that because I certainly know nothing independently about the way that this market works outside of, you know, sort of

common sense. However, I will say that your point, Ryan, that we've now pushed things to the brink on so many levels, I think is a really important one. The reason why those initial analyses did not pan out is because we had a lot more slack in the system that was originally anticipated. We had, you know, some level of reserves here and around the world. The big factor was China, really reducing their buying in the market. So that was a decrease in demand that didn't require really painful demand destruction. So you had a lot of those sort of factors that allowed more wiggle room in the system than was anticipated. Well, that is all gone now. So perhaps there's other flexibility in the system that is not anticipated. Perhaps the market will react in a different

way than what these analysts are expecting. But there is good reason to believe that we could be at that breaking point now, sorry, pun, not intended, but where all of those measures that they've taken in the past, all of those sort of circumstances that lessened the blow have now been exhausted and we could be in a really bad situation. Yes, a very good point. China, according to FT this morning, is at a critical point with its own inventories. Yeah, they're announcing like, oh, this is, even they kind of thought that this would be resolved a little bit sooner. They and J.P. Morgan all assumed that there were some red lines that would force the Trump administration to bring an end to this thing. Yeah.

And they miscalculated. And so now they're going to have to be buying at a more significant clip. Obviously, they have the money that they can do that. They don't, you know, they prefer to be buying at $60 a barrel than $100 or $110. But they're going to have no choice, like you said. And so that's the kind of pressure that was expected back in July or whatever. And Ryan, what do you think the impact internationally will be? Because as much should we focus on prices here and, you know, we're American-centric show, the rest of the world is going to be screwed. Like, Europe is going to be screwed, screwed.

Because they were like, you know, we were sort of the diesel exporter of last resort. Russia, obviously, not only they stop buying from them, but now Russian capacity is also taken offline, of course, what's going on in the Middle East. So you are going to see this part, I'm definitely convinced of, skyrocketing diesel prices around the globe outside of America. What is that, what impact do you think that has longer term on their relationship with the U.S., on, you know, the dollar is the world's reserve currency, on the Petro dollar, or all those sorts of things. What sort of domino effects do you think we could have?

I think stuff we won't expect. Lula, for instance, might lose in Brazil over, you know, inflation driven by energy prices. He has an election coming up against Bolsonaro's kid. Right. Macron just called for the G7 to meet over releasing a whole bunch more oil reserves because they are just going to absolutely get killed going into the winter. I mean, Maloney, Italy, they're talking about, let's build a nuclear power plant. You know, obviously that's not going to help this winter.

But they're, you know, rethinking the entire structure of their energy industry. This double whammy of basically, you know, you blow up Nord Stream cut off access to cheap Russian energy. And then the U.S. goes to war with Iran and blows that up. Because, you know, they were more reliant on Iranian energy than we were. where necessarily even though it's a global market. So yeah, I think they're all in trouble. Carbon emissions will continue to fall. There you go. First time since COVID. And MAGA is pushing veggie burgers. Yes. And eggs. Not just let them eat cake. Let them just eat one ingredient in the cake. Incredible stuff. All right. Let's go ahead and get to Logan Phillips

and an update on the midterms. Wherever you're headed, Dejardin is here to assist, helping you with investment insurance, banking and business services. Desjardin, proud partner of the Amazing Race Canada. Watch Tuesdays at 9 on CTV. Stream next day on Crape. Lisa? We should tell them about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast.

It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Youanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived at all. I'm not going to get anyone fighting. That is wild.

I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight,

but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

I don't really care. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists, on artist podcast. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast where each week a new panel of artists

discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know. Have you guys heard of faux journaling? Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So we don't like to use that word anymore.

A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of. of Sadako and the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald's at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th. That's crazy.

I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday, and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore, though. Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween.

It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you almost hear the eyelashes. each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, guys, this morning we have Logan Phillips with Race of the White House joining us. Great to see you, Logan, and we're going to break down what's going on in Senate big picture and wanted to do a special focus because there's some new numbers out about how much Latino voters seem to be shifting away from the Republican Party and what that could

mean. So great to see you, Logan. Hey, it's great to be on Crystal. Yeah, of course. And we're going to have Logan on regularly now between now and the midterm so we can continue to break down these numbers and track how things are shifting and, of course, on Election Day as well. So always excited about that partnership. Hey, me too. Love to be on. All right. So let's go ahead and take a look at your model. Let's put B3 up on the screen. We can see the map here. This is the Senate map, which most people have been expecting for a while. The House is likely to go Democratic. The Senate, to begin with, it was like, oh, there's no way. The landscape is too difficult.

You're going to have to win places like Alaska, win places like Texas, win places like Ohio. Now suddenly, the question is flipped to, you know, it looks like Democrats have an edge in some of those states. And there is an even possibility of, you know, a place like Iowa, a place even like Nebraska with the independent candidate, a place like Kansas, which would really be getting crazy. What are you seeing in terms of your model in some of the key states?

Yeah, it's been absolutely stunning how much things have changed in the last. two months, even the last two to three weeks. But there's been a big lead to open up by Democrats, and often sometimes it's about gaining in the right places. And Democrats are doing particularly well of Latino voters, and they're doing particularly well in the Midwest, and that's created a lot of good opportunities for them. And so we're seeing in places all over the country, races that have significantly moved in their direction. I remember early on, I got a lot of anger online because I thought that John Osif was favored in Georgia. I will be honest, I did not see the map looking like this at this stage in the election. I don't think anyone did.

Maddie for that? Like that's a pretty straightforward claim like yeah you know people always assume if you just won the last election you're just going to keep winning everything forever and they forget the midterms are always almost always a massive check on the party in power and it takes them like a year to get used to that yeah so republicans are talking about leaving Georgia and north carolina it seems like at this point uh and all of a sudden have to pay attention to places like like you said, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska. Let's talk about some of these. So what about Nebraska?

Why are we only lean at this point? Like, Dan Osborne, in the polls that have been out, seems to be actually ahead of Ricketts. Yeah. So what is it, is it just the fundamentals and people being like, it's just impossible? Well, polling's not the only signal we're looking at here. It is a huge sign that this race is competitive.

But, like, it shouldn't be because this is a state that I think Trump won by like close to 30%. Now in the same year, Osborne only lost by 7%. And in theory, this political environment should be more than seven points worse for Republicans. That would only be like a 5.5 edge in the national popular vote for House races

for Democrats for that to happen. So he certainly got a chance, but it is really hard to overperform the rest of your party by those types of numbers. It becomes a little more possible when you look at the fact that throughout the Midwest and the best time around, we're not talking about just the Midwest

of Michigan and Wisconsin. in Pennsylvania, which isn't Midwest, but gets thrown around like it is. Yeah. We're actually talking about the greater Midwest in places like Kansas and Nebraska. There seems like a genuine big movement for Democrats this cycle, at least from what we're seeing in the polls. And whether it's as strong as the polls are showing, no way to know until Election Day. But I think it makes some sense because these are places that have a lot of farmland

that are getting hit particularly hard by the tariffs and the rise in diesel prices and and gas prices. Let's go and stick with the Midwest, put B5 up on the screen, because this raised a lot of lot of eyebrows yesterday. So Steve DeS, who's a conservative radio host, is that right? He said yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a plus 15 district, you're in the margin of error. If you're in a plus 10 district, you are underwater, and this might end up being an even worse midterm environment than 2006 when Democrats just, you know, went on a tear and that really set up for the Obama era.

What do you make of this? Are we getting Ann Selzerd here again in Iowa, or are there reasons to believe that districts that are plus 15 Republican may actually be in play in the state? Well, part of this is that there is a bigger lead for Democrats in the national polling if the polls are actually right than any year since 1986. Wow.

You know, we're talking about 40 years here. So on paper, it would be bigger than 2006. And again, these things are. are localized, right? Like, Iowans are the state in the state that has been hit the single hardest by tariffs. And so the Iran War is a big part of this, but I think there's like a particular frustration for states like that that is like, we thought the tariffs were over. They don't know necessarily the average voter if it were Trump making a change in the decision versus the court. But now it comes back again with Canada, our friend and ally. And if you're a farmer

who knows other farmers that might have committed suicide because this is happening sometimes. Yeah, that's true. Because people can't afford to keep. their family farm going anymore and they wanted to pass it on to their kids and they just feel hopeless. That type of thing is going to move you. It's going to move everyone. And so it is clear that the president's made this problem a lot worse for them. Even if for voters that really like Trump, they're not stupid. They can see this wouldn't necessarily be happening if he didn't go down this path. And so for a lot of people, even if they're not swelming the Democratic Party, they're looking for ways to check Republicans. Yeah. So what about Mississippi? Yeah, Scott Collum,

extremely talented politician who was I'm not even paying attention to the race and I can tell how hard he's working like he wants to win this and he thinks he has a shot what would have to happen in Mississippi for us to

on election night be looking at a gentleman like wait a minute Mississippi well that would be the mother of blue waves would mean that Democrats are being underrated is it possible this year yes but it's certainly not It's sort of in the range of you have like a 10% chance of this type of win, right? Could you ever imagine yourself saying there was a 10% chance of a Democrat winning in Mississippi post-1960s?

Well, post-190 or whatever? I would have expected a lot more signs before this year. Now, we did run competitive last time, but it's just such a hard state to win that, you know, the reality is that when you win by this much, there's always going to be something crazy that happens, right? There was like that seat in Oklahoma in 2018, the Democrats picked up in deep, deep red territory. And you even had one for Democrats with Washington, Third of Maria, including Khan Perez, that I think I had at a 7% chance. Most people had had a 2% chance. Not very often I claim 7% chance as a win when I get right. But there's always going to be won every cycle.

And so this is now big enough for Dems that it's, it ate, I mean, like he should be fighting for it. If you're ever going to win, Mississippi, this is the year. but still I wouldn't count on it. My understanding of why Mississippi is so hard, it's not because Trump or the Republicans win Mississippi by the largest margin because they don't, but the partisanship

is so racialized in the South and in Mississippi in particular. So you have close to 40% of the state who are either black or Latino. And so you get a large, you know, fairly large percentage that are Democratic voting. But then the white majority population

is just so hard. hard Republicans. It's very hard to penetrate. So a question will be whether the Democratic candidate can make any inroads there. I do want to turn to some of these numbers with Latinos, which, you know, one of the big stories of the Trump era has been, at the beginning, you had all these predictions that Latinos were going to en masse begin voting for Democrats because Trump's rhetoric around immigration was so aggressive, so harsh, so cruel, so, you know, so just sort of vindictive and racialized that they would all vote on mass for Democrats. The way, way that black voters tend to. And that has not panned down. You've seen Trump perform quite well with

Latinos better than expected in 2016, way better than expected in 2024. However, put B1 up on the screen. This appears to be a part of the coalition that is really collapsing. Now, every group has collapsed to Trump except for white evangelicals. However, you know, this strength that he had in 2024 with Latinos and, you know, not to essentialize because this is a very diverse population in and of itself, but that seems to really be falling apart. New York Times took a look at, based on their polling, they dug into the individual districts in Florida and Texas to see what their polling indicated about this shift. And it's quite extraordinary. You know, in Texas, you have a district that is moving up to 31 points Democratic in part based on the Latino population. Florida, you've got districts

that are moving 25, 20, 13 points towards Democrats because of this shift as well. And Logan, a lot of these House districts were drawn by Republicans with an assumption that they would at least hold on to a little bit of those gains with Latinos. And that may have turned out to be a foolhardy assumption. Yeah, you're right, Crystal. They might have made a huge mistake on their timing on this because they made a game plan in 2022 when they were redrawing the maps, I guess, in 21, that they were going to play it's safe. It's not that Texans decided now we want to play hardball and start to gerrymandered

this cycle. It's that they thought they were at risk and that they were followed, their majority was falling apart in Texas. And so the whole point was to build a firewall of extra voters. So if Democrats made extra gains, they wouldn't be able to dive deeper into the state, right? So rather than maximize their chance year to year. And that didn't work out. I mean, they did fine in 2022 in Texas and 24. Don't get me wrong, but they didn't maximize their gains, right? So now they got a little more confident because they did well of Latinos in 22. They did amazing with them in 24, barely lost them nationally. And so they made an assumption that this was an enduring gain.

But the problem is Republicans haven't really treated these voters of respect, something they accuse, and I think justifiably so Democrats of doing. They got cocky, they stopped listening, and they took things for granted. And so, A, a lot of these voters are because they're a newer immigrant group on, or there's a lot of newer immigrant groups among them, as often happens in American history, they're disproportionately working class. They're affected a lot more by cuts to health care. They're affected a lot more by rising prices.

And then in addition, especially in places like Texas and Florida, they feel like they're being racially discriminated. Yes. And they wanted a secure border. That's when moved a lot of voters in southern Texas. They didn't want to have ICE going after everyone, not following due process, seizing people that have documentation. And even for people that aren't, they didn't want them to be treated this badly or, you know,

someone that they viewed as not a threat, depending on the person, to be detained. All right. So going back to Crystal's point about Steve D's talking about how R plus 15 districts are now competitive, R plus 10 in Iowa, you're underwater. So to your point, what did Texas Republicans do for districts across Texas? R plus what? Like, what did they basically go for when they redrew the districts? Yeah, they were trying to gain like five seats.

So each district, like, what was that? What was their target for a partisan lien in a district to make it safe? I don't know that off the cuff, guys. I'm sorry to say. But I think it was less than 10. Yes. In other words, if Iowa holds in Texas, if that same trend that Steve Dees observed, because what you were saying is that Republicans lulled themselves into a trap.

Yes. Right, where they got overconfident. Well, potentially, we're going to see what happens on election. They're just red flags that the scenario where this would fall apart would be not just that they lost ground with Latinos, It's not just they lost ground with voters. These guys aren't stupid. They assumed that it was not going to be a great year because almost every year in midterm history

outside of literally right after 9-11. But they didn't know about the war and they didn't think it would be this bad. No, what you're saying is they drew the districts into play for Democrats. And I think they would have been fine if it were just bad. Right.

It's the laws of Latinos in particular. Not this. Not catastrophic. But I'm saying it's not just that. It's who they're losing the ground with. civically the Latino voters that would make this a disproportionate problem. I mean, it would, like, I think they're thinking along the lines of, like, let's not focus just on this year.

They're also thinking for 28, let's say. Or if we lose the House by like three or four, the popular vote by three or four percent, what could potentially get us a win nationally? Right. Not what could, so you're right on that part, but I think they were willing to say, okay, at this point, we would have lost the House anyway. So this is about maximizing their chance in good years. So maybe for 26, it ends up hurting them and they do better in 28.

right, especially if they make up ground off Latinos again. But for this year, there's a possibility they lose seats, which is crazy given how much advantage they have. Yeah. In my forecast, they're on track to lose a seat right now, which I did not realize it was that dramatic. And in Florida, they're on track to just hold ground, which was also really surprising for me. Wherever you're headed, Dejardin is here to assist.

Helping you with investment, insurance, banking, and business services. Dejardin, proud partner of the Amazing Race Canada. Watch Tuesdays at 9 on CTV. stream next day on Crape. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me.

I'm Lexi Youanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild.

I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser.

We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I don't really care. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhane. Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each

week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know. Have you guys heard of faux journaling? Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying to. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako and the thousand paper cranes by Audra McDonald's at the

Wonderland Bookstore. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore, though. Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up?

He winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on artists on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Ryan, I'm actually kind of curious your insights into Florida because you have a lot of people in your life. Personally and professionally with connectivity down there, I've been talking to this candidate, Nicole Lachlan, who's actually in the district that they show the 25 point shift based on the New York Times polling there. And it's represented a long time by Mario Diaz Ballard.

this is the type of district that you would think, no way. And when I started speaking with her, I was like, you're going to have to show me some possibility that you have a chance of this seat before I start taking this seriously. And this poll made me really pay a lot of attention, the one from the New York Times, showing this shift. And when I talked to her, because her district is something like 70% Latino, and there's a lot of Venezuelans in her district. She said that they're very upset with what has happened in Venezuela because these are the type of people who want to see the, regime overthrown, but they did not want Delci Rodriguez to still be in charge. So that has kind of taken the bloom off the rows of Trump's hawkish approach both to Venezuela and to Cuba. And then you layer on top of that, Venezuelans and Cubans in particular have long received their deferential

treatment, even from Republicans when it comes to immigration. And that has not been the case under the Trump regime either. So I think that has also changed some of the orientation towards Trump and his immigration policies where it's like, oh, you were talking about us too. Didn't get that before. Yes, they were very convinced. And for legitimate reason, they supported Trump. Like they donated to him. They voted for him.

They wore the red hats. Trump loved that he got the support from the right-wing Cubans and the Venezuelans. And so they thought that the ice crackdown was going to go against other people. And they have been, they've been. have felt shocked and betrayed that it is coming after them as well. And there is a level of racism among a lot of kind of right-wing Cubans and Venezuelaans toward other Latino groups. Yeah. That creates this situation where you're like, wait a minute, oh, you see us as just like them.

How dare you? How dare you treat us like them who they treat with total. contempt. Yeah, or like Afro-Caribbean groups or Haitians. Oh my God. Yeah. Like for beyond. Like so, yes, they did not think that the crackdown would hit them. It's hitting them.

And they are, right, and exactly. They're not even getting the liberation of Venezuela out of it. All of Chato is not there. It's just getting looted and then Delsey gets, becomes the president who they don't like either. Right. And then they're glad that Rubio was choking Cuba,

But, you know, Cuba's still, the Cuban government's still there. Yeah. And I'm wondering to, Logan, if there isn't kind of a, I mean, it's a very different dynamic in southern Texas where, like you said, a lot of working class people. But it's, you know, a lot of families that have been here for generations and generations. And so there isn't as, it's a different group than, you know, Latino, like, newly arrived immigrants. And there are a lot of people who work for Border Patrol and are actually. quite, you know, relatively hawkish on the border. But I think there is a similar, similar dynamic of just the level of racism and cruelty that's coming. It's like, oh, this is also about us. Like, we're also

being targeted here, even though there had been, you know, a lot of support for a sort of strong and forced border and the mass deportation policies, et cetera. And then really, I think the big mover is the economic factors that you were pointing to there. Yeah, you know, I'll be honest, Sometimes I'm surprised by how much folks in like Maine or Michigan will be talking about how much the chaos of the border affects them. I think it's fair for people in Southern Texas to say that because it does there. And that's a big reason they prioritize it so much. But they weren't asking for the other extreme with all of this cruelty. And it's not shocking, even though it seems to be surprising someone, the president's team, that if you persecute a community, if you make them feel unsafe in their own home,

they're not going to be happy about it. Yeah. Let's talk real quickly about this new poll from the New York Times, Sienna. They have Abdul al-Saiad up, I think, four. They have Pappas up by like five in New Hampshire. So Democrats happy about that. But they have Susan Collins up 49, 46 in Maine. Maine suffering from the heating oil crisis, Maine suffering from the

trade war with Canada. Yet, Susan Collins maintaining a lead. What's your, what's your assessment there? Boy, I would never, my mom don't know how it's the Democrats favorite in the Senate. I don't know where it's going to be after I had this main race. It's already, I think, in Tossop, terror, are going to go back into it if it isn't right now. You have 67% chance right now. Yeah, it's going back to Tossup because I'm under 65 for sure. And I think that I've never thought a year ago that I would say that Democrats would be favored to win the Senate with Susan Collins having a really good chance to win anyway. But the reality is she is Democrat, Republicans Joe Manchin. She's outstanding at winning, races and overperforming. She has a long record of

breaking with her party in a way that you can point to penny of votes where she hasn't, especially this term of confirmations. But she has a lot that she can say, and she's very good at finding the right argument at the right moment to say like, that library over there, it's because of the funds that I brought in or this vote I did to save parts of Obamacare, et cetera, right? And we kind of have now a reverse grand platinum in the Democratic nominee. He doesn't have any scandals. He's kind of more of a normal politician and he's progressive. So I think a lot of folks thought in the rush of things he'd be a good replacement.

But he also is the anti-grand Platter. And it doesn't necessarily have the charisma either, the building to move people. And so I don't think he's turning people away like running and screaming or anything. but he doesn't, you know, it might not be enough to beat Collins. Now, he absolutely can win. I still think you've got to choose a side. I would choose his. But she's good at this.

Yeah. Yeah. And on the Democratic side, it's so messy, and the campaign is so lackluster and a major financial advantage for Susan Collins. I do wonder if after this latest corruption scandal factors, because very likely this polling was done before that hit. I wonder if that moves voters as well. We'll have to see it because it's so controversial. to their image of her and their associations with her. So we'll see.

Last thing I'll say is this was interesting. And I think, you know, as I'm looking at the polls because, oh, look, we've, you know, we've had crazy Iowa polls before. We've had midterm cycles before where you're like, oh, my God, this Kentucky's in play. Look at this poll. And then it turns out to, you know, be a 30-point blowout for Republicans or whatever. What is really making me feel like this could be different is the way the Republicans are behaving.

And this is the latest example of this. So Roger Marshall, who is the senator in Kansas, said this week and out of this in post. He put this out yesterday on Twitter. He said, when ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone. Working together keeps officers and residents safe on closely following what's happening. In southwestern, Kansas have been direct contact with Secretary Mullen local law enforcement as ICE executes warrants in order to keep Kansas safe. So kind of pushing back on ICE enforcement in Kansas.

This comes as you've got candidates who are suddenly, who, you know, who've been in favor. Mike Rogers been in favor of the Iran war for 20 years. Suddenly, I don't like this war at all. We need to stop it. We've got to do something about gas prices. Ashley Hinson voted for the war multiple times. Last week. Suddenly all of a sudden, oh my, I oppose this.

This is terrible. I don't support this at all. The way that Republicans are behaving in this sort of panicked fashion and even going so far is to push back on ice in Kansas, that is to me an indication that they at least believe. that the polling is real and that they are in that kind of trouble. Yeah, absolutely. I would say two things to that, right? One, that will help them to do those types of separations,

but only help them so much because voters aren't stupid. It's the same thing people were saying about Democrats of Latino voters. If you're only checking in like three months before the election, they're kind of like, where were you? Well, if you're starting to disagree with Donald Trump on ICE or on the Iran more, but you've been there all the time, they're going to be thinking, you know, it's only a Google search away,

a quick question on chat GPT away. like, why are you doing it in late September? It's not going to seem like a coincidence if they're paying some attention. No, not everyone is. And that's why I can work to some degree. The second thing I would say is there is a huge difference between this in 2018 and it's about the map.

2018, 2024, those are the maps from hell for Democrats because somehow they kept winning these deep red states in ways that were just impossible as the country was getting more polarized to keep up even in a blue wave. And eventually the magic was going to wear off. It started in 2006, when their best cycles ever, kept it in 2012 as these guys narrowly just barely survived and then they lost most of those seats in 18 and 24th. This is the map that they want this cycle on. They finally might have the timing right because there is a lot of soft red territory.

Right. I don't mean soft as in like just barely over the edge. I mean like places that are like somewhere between set six to like 15 points more Republican like Alaska like Alaska and that's new Alaska and Kansas are the two states that have moved the most. towards Democrats. Kansas has been tracking along at a slow rate towards Democrats year after year after year. Interesting. And so it was like not enough for them to win normally. If this continues, Kansas could be a swing state. Just because it's moving doesn't mean a will in perpetuity, but if you're talking about 12 years from now, it could become a swing state. But this might be the cycle where it happens, where now it used to be a state that was like 25 points to the right. I think it's now like 14 or so. Yeah. So I think Republicans are still favored there, but they have a really good candidate. Democrats that are religious really do seem to overperform with being able to

win some conservatives over. And I mean, they have the preacher of the largest Methodist church in America who has done, he's kind of like Tala Rico in a way in that he has a belief in a type of Christianity that emphasizes a lot more about helping the poor. That's what his church has done. They have these huge programs to help children when they can't afford books, when they need beds, etc. And so for folks that are looking for that type of Christianity that are naturally conservative, there's probably part of the reason they're naturally conservative. This is something they're not seeing often from some of their Republican leaders, especially in this term as they've cut food stamps and Medicaid. And what about Alaska, Mary Peltola, New York Times out with a ridiculous story trying to make her look like a bad boss.

Yeah, I mean, I do have- Don't get me started. I do have friends on the hill who have been treated poorly, and I do have empathy for that. But I also think that all of us know someone that has lost their mother or their- Have some grace. Spouse. Have some humanity. Yeah. It's hard to be on your A-game mentally and to not lose it at people sometimes when you're going through the single toughest moment of your life. Who among us has not lost it at people sometimes? Yeah. And these campaigns are very consequential.

Their husband died in a plane crash. And then her mother died within weeks. I can't even imagine what that would feel like. And in a plane crash, like losing someone to cancer is a horrible thing, but at least you have time to repair. A plane crash, the randomness of that, I think that makes it hurt twice as much. And then to wait until September of a Senate election year to air your grievance. about how she treated you in the depth of her grief. I don't know what they're doing.

I always get yelled at for not having more sympathy for the kids. They're not kids. They're adults. Yes. Very true. Very true. Anyway, do you think Mary Peltola, like, I feel like this is her year. Yeah, I think it isn't helpful for her, obviously. This? I don't know. I think it might be helpful. You read it, you're like, she seems like a real person. Yeah, yeah.

This was not Amy Klobuchar stuff. This was just like kind of normal person. This just came out. So the thing of my barometer in D.C. is I have to be careful how much I listen to my friends here because it does lean left. I have to hear what people that don't like Democrats say that are like, but open to voting for them because everyone I've talked to feels the same way you do. I just need like an extra day or two before I can have those conversations that just came out. I mean, my instinct is that you're right. Our conservative voters are going to be really like, she said the our word. That's it.

I was about to vote for her. It's really if you're looking for excuses to know. That's hard for me to imagine. I don't know. Yeah. The reason I think I have some caution is I do think that people were more freaked out by women being abusive or angry bosses than they are about men. I don't think they like it when men are like that. But the consequence is a lot higher.

Yeah. Although, to be fair, Klobuchar is extremely popular. That's a very good point. I mean, I don't think she was at, I don't think her presidential campaign was ever going anywhere. I don't think that that was like the death blow to it. But people freaking love that lady in Minnesota. In Alaska, they only like timid, courteous women like Sarah Palin. Right.

You guys make a good point. And maybe the people that really care democratic primary voters, more so than the general elector. Yeah, true. And I saw people, liberals online being like, you know, gay men who were like, she can call me that for it. I don't care. Just win.

So I think that's where a lot of Democrats are at this point. Logan, we can talk to you forever. Thank you so much. We'll have you back next week. So we'll continue to talk to you. A conversation will continue. Always appreciate your insights. Always appreciate being on, guys.

Thanks. wherever you're headed. Dejardin is here to assist, helping you with investment, insurance, banking, and business services. Dejardin, proud partner of the amazing race Canada. Watch Tuesdays at 9 on CTV. Stream next day on Crape.

Lisa? We should tell them about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwany. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.

And I'm Lisa Di Giulio. The old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anyone fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. And I've always got something to say.

If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight to fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I don't really care. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.

Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I can talk to you for a hour. You're a generational yapper like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s.

all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. Call your grandparents. Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy and you like learning

and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Chinese premier Xi Jinping arrived at joint air base Andrews last night, gifting us with just an absolutely incredible meme. Did you see this, Crystal? So he's sitting out the tarmac with our glorious leader, our fearless leader. And a plane flies over top.

The humiliation that continues to be laid up. at the feet of the American people. It just knows no end. Chairman Shee, who, as many people know, grew up in a cave, literally. Like, he lived in a cave after the cultural revolution for a long period of time. Not wincing at the airplane flying overtop. I almost, first time, I saw it was like, this has to be AI. Somebody, just being a little bit mean to Trump here.

But Trump's face is ridiculous there too. But no, indeed. So they will be meeting this afternoon. They have then a ball without the ballroom, right? At the White House, they'll have a state dinner where there will be a whole host of big tech titans and AI people trying, I guess, try to schmooze with Chairman Xi. Meanwhile, Massoud Praschian, the Iranian president, spoke at the U.S. rather impassioned speech. Let's roll a little bit of that. Atomic and nuclear bombs are in the hands of the Israeli regime, but the inspectors

are requested to come to Iran. Israel has murdered savagely over 70,000 innocents in Gaza, but Iran while behind the table of negotiation was bombed. Israel has the bombs, has weapons of mass destruction, not a member of the non-proliferation treaty. during her shameful life has not allowed a single inspection, but they are rewarded by all the means necessary for them to be able to bomb any capital in the region at will. You know, Crystal, last year when Pasechkin was in New York for the same week of UN meetings,

I was in a press briefing with him. Yeah. And he was talking about the recent books that he'd read. He's big into literature. And he was whack. What Trump discusses in the types of meetings as well, yeah. And he was waxing very poetic about life, and he really gave off this sense. And I remember this kind of an eerie feeling of feeling like I was in the room with a walking dead man.

Like that somebody, it was somebody who knew he was going to be assassinated at some point soon, and he didn't know when. Wow. And he didn't want it. He said, I don't want this to happen. Like, this is not what I want. But he also, I think, saw no, like, I suppose he could run to Russia or something and try to, like, live out his life that way. But he didn't want to do that. And he was just a literature-loven politician who happened to win the Iranian presidential election at the time when all of a sudden the U.S. is deciding it's going to assassinate everybody who's involved with the Iranian government. It was such an eerie feeling. It's like, this is so crazy. And yet, here he is a year later, back in Iran.

And I remember we kept thinking, okay, Trump is meeting with Xi September 24th. This has been on the books for months. We're like, surely he has to have this war wrapped up by then. Right. It would be too embarrassing and too weird and get in the way of his agenda that he has with Xi. for this still to be going on. I don't know why we thought that because clearly

he still can be doing it and he is. Yeah. And Peschkian, still alive. Now they murdered most of the government, but he survived. And here he is again. Yeah. And I think at the time of the MOU there was this sense of this is probably, this is basically a surrender document

as John Mearsheimer calls it. However, this is the best possible option and can Trump sublimate his ego enough to hold the L? And that was always the question. And I was pretty skeptical that he would be able to. But on the other hand, you look at it, well, the other option is also impossible. So now we're in this in-between zone where the economic pressure continues to ratchet up. You know, Trump for all of his talk about, oh, I don't care about the midterms, who cares, and even said something to that effect in his U.N. speech. clearly does if he's thinking of doing some, well, damn it, we've got to do something,

insanity with a diesel export ban, and, you know, also floating all sorts of, like, election rigging schemes and all these sorts of things and doing his R&C down in Texas. Like, clearly he does care. So I think, you know, the sense that now the midterms are this very consequential date has become quite prominent, whereas previously we're thinking about this deadline of meeting with she as a very prominent date. I'll say also this morning the markets are reacting the fact that there was apparently some sideline meeting with the Iranian president that appears to have resulted in absolutely nothing, no surprise there.

So whatever hopium was floating around out there that, oh, maybe this will be the beginning of some restarted talks, I think, has been already pretty crushed. Right. And so that's a good point that people who are looking at the midterms as some reason that is going to force him to end this should reflect on how we were looking at. at the meeting with she as a reason that he would end this. And yet, the Iranians seem to have baked in an assumption that he's not going to end it. And they're just going to have to last for two years. Yeah. Well, little more than two years until he's out of office due to term limits and presumably replaced by somebody who ends the war.

That seems to be their best thinking at this time. Well, at least as far as I can tell, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but their analysis of what America is likely to do has been pretty prescient. Yeah, I mean, going back to what you were saying about last year, the Iranian president, I'm like, I'm probably going to get murdered, not saying that outright, but that being the vibe. And while he was not personally assassinated, there was certainly a desire to assassinate him and much of the top leadership was, we're also getting a greater look now at some of the horrific impact. of this war on our own service members. We've got more details put C3 up on the screen about the U.S. carrier group, the Lincoln that we did, you know, we covered so much reporting on the horrific conditions, how long they were, you know, they were out and just the suffering on board. Now we know that there were eight sailors as part of that carrier group who attempted suicide

during this deployment, which is wild. And this is not, you know, this is not inside reporting. this was told to Congress by the acting Navy Secretary Hung Kao based on questioning from a member of Congress. So just horrific to imagine. And also, obviously, in terms of our capacity to sustain this conflict, you know, it's not only the U.S. as Lincoln that was that the crew members were suffering. This speaks to the fact that, number one, our bases were obliterated. And so our plan for provisioning and supplying these ships was also obliterated. was also obliterated, and the fact that we are stretched so incredibly thin here that we are

requiring service members to have this length, extraordinary, like, unprecedented length of deployment, and what that does to them, what that does to our equipment, et cetera. So it's a sign of how, yeah, how poorly planned this was, and also how this did not go according to whatever plan existed to begin with. Yeah. And the bond market continuing to just blow up and put up C4, up to 5.125% on the 10-year yield, highest in an extremely long time. I can put up C5, New York Times, is the biggest jump, biggest one-day jump. And you can just look at the chart there, like absolutely brutal. And what, if you may or may not know this about the bond market, when interest rates go up, the price of bonds goes down.

that's because if you hold a bond with a lower yield, it's now worth less because you can go out in the market and get the same type of bond with a better interest rate. So the one that you're holding is worth less. So in other words, if two weeks ago, when interest rates went to 5%, you went out and bought some 10-year bonds, you have taken a bath on those bonds. Like what you bought is worth a lot less, which means people are getting burned buying U.S. government debt. And the more people get burned buying U.S. government debt, the less people want to buy it. Yeah. We already have a situation where gold has overtaken U.S. treasuries as being held by central banks around the world. This obviously ties in also to mortgage rates as well.

So, you know, I saw, I think it was a Fox business host who was questioning a Republican and was saying, look, you got mortgage rates of 7%. You got gas at these high prices. You know, you got inflation going up. How can you possibly present to the American people that this is all fine and these are the golden years? You know, America's back.

And I don't think that person had a very good answer to that because, you know, these are the things that, look, you can look at the stock market. Stock market's doing great. But the things that people are actually dealing with in their day-to-day life, can I afford a house? Can I afford to fill up the gas tank on my car?

Can I afford beef at the grocery store or am I, you know, reduced to beans and eggs or whatever the secretary is pushing this week? Those are the sorts of things that people have a daily experience, but then you can't gaslight them on. Even it, let's say that some miracle occurred and there was some massive breakthrough and things started to get better. There's also going to be an overhang economically and an overhang politically because what we saw with Kamala Harris when she lost is inflation was getting was much better and it was headed in the right direction. But because people had been so dissatisfied with what had gone on for the years of the Biden presidency, not just here, but around the world. Incumbents really face this massive backlash and punishment for their stewardship of

the economy. It is so painful to look at charts and data from February of 26 right before Trump launched the war. Everything getting better. Everything moving in the right direction. Mortgage rates coming down, inflation coming down. People were like, he just needed to do nothing. Yes. Like, don't do the tariffs. Don't do the war. Yeah, just do your ballroom. Do the Trump, you know, whatever, the arch and the Kennedy Center. Like, just do that bullshit.

But if you're doing that bullshit, and I actually think that is an undersold part of how much his ratings have cratered and why there is some erosion even among his base is you have on the one hand, him obsessing over the gilded ballroom while gas prices are going up. And he is saying, go eat eggs. Good luck. Yeah. Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Youanu.

We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa DiGulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhain. Patrick McDonald.

And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.

You never seen it. so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to Artists on Artists on Artists every Thursday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts, the True Crime Comedy Podcasts all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week, I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them.

What? I can talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.