Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - Breaking Points Full Election Night Audio

Episode Date: November 12, 2022

Krystal and Saagar teamed up with friends of the show to bring together an amazing election night broadcast reacting in real time to the hectic midterm results. Bringing you all the full audio and link to the full stream on YouTube in case you missed it!To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.supercast.com/To listen to Breaking Points as a podcast, check them out on Apple and SpotifyApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar/id1570045623 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Kbsy61zJSzPxNZZ3PKbXl YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkXWGxzj2t4Merch: https://breaking-points.myshopify.com/Status Coup: https://www.youtube.com/c/StatusCoup  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to our election live stream. We have an amazing show for all of you today, as you can all see. I hope this is working, Crystal. So what do we have today? Indeed, we do. A few things to talk about. There will be results, of course, coming in all night. We'll be doing our analysis here with Marshall and with Kyle. We have the CounterPoints crew, Ryan and Emily, coming in later. So we're very excited about that. We have reporters on the ground from Status Coup, both with Team Oz in Pennsylvania and also with Team Fetterman in Pennsylvania.

We've got great election-like data geek analysis from J. Miles Coleman later on. So we're going to be tracking all of those things and more. Before we get to any of that, though, I have the biggest announcement of the night, which is that, for those of you watching this live stream, handing out a little bit of a discount. That's right. The premium subscription. We've got the 10% off on the premium subscription. It's the last time you'll hear it, I promise. Listen, guys, this is all made possible because of our premium subs, many of whom

are watching right now. What Crystal just described, people on the ground having our full control room back there, Marshall, Kyle, the CounterPoints crew. It costs a lot of money. And so as we gear up, not only for this, but for the future and given the imminent possible Trump announcement, if you can help us build up, it really, really helps us out so much. There's a link in the chat and also in the description of this video, 10% off on the annual, which just helps us so much in terms of planning. So thank you all so much to the existing ones who are watching. And the link is there for those of you who have the kindness in your hearts.

But with that, why don't we kick it off? What do we know? All right. So first, we are already getting some results out of Indiana and Kentucky. Their polls closed at six. There aren't really many competitive races there, so there isn't a lot to read into those results just yet.

But right now, 7 p.m., there are some key states whose polls just closed, including Georgia, also Virginia, which doesn't have any statewide races, but does have some key

bellwether races, including the district that Kyle and I live in at this point. So Abigail Spanberger, that one. So we'll be keeping a close eye there. 7.30, we get all of North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, parts of New Hampshire. So you can see right away we'll be starting to get some election results in that will start to tell us what the night is going to look like. 8 p.m., you get a whole slew of states, including Florida,

including Pennsylvania is at 8. You've got Texas at 8. You've got New Jersey, Kansas, and Michigan, a whole lot of others also closing at 8. Then at 8.30, you get all of Arkansas. I know a lot of folks out there really waiting on those Arkansas results with bated breath.

9 p.m., no offense, Arkansas, lovely state. We love you. 9 p.m. No offense, Arkansas. Lovely state. 9 p.m. We got Colorado. We got Iowa. We got Kansas, Louisiana. Michigan comes in at 9. New York, which Democrats have ended up being surprisingly kind of nervous about. Wisconsin and some of Arizona we start to get at 9. And at 10, we get all of Arizona, all of Nevada and a few other states. Oregon starts to come in then as well. And then we go on from there. So you can see we'll be getting key results throughout the night.

I think it's important to put in the warning that there have already been results of some problems in Arizona, Pennsylvania, I think in particular. We expect the results to be relatively slow going. You might have an effect in some of these states, same as we did in 2020, where you have like the red mirage because you now have such a partisan divide in terms of how voters cast their ballots. So if the election day votes are counted first, you may see a huge red wave that then Democrats sort of eat into. You might see the reverse. You might see the mail-in ballots come in first, in which case you might have a huge Democratic margin. So I would just say, you know, hold tight, wait until the results all come in, and we will see

where this all ends up. Yeah, I just want to reiterate that. Pennsylvania in particular, they've already come out, the Secretary of State said, we likely will not know the results for a couple of days, which is kind of crazy, if you ask me. Same thing in Arizona, they were saying around Arizona for Nevada as well. Also, I should remind people, I actually didn't even know this when we were doing research, which is that the red states in the Midwest or the purple states, if you will, many of them have enacted laws, Crystal, where the early vote is not actually allowed to be counted until today. And so even though many of those votes and ballots are banked, they're not allowed to count them, which would

lead to the so-called Reg Mirage phenomenon that you're describing. Same deal in 2020 as we had then. And we went through an excruciating detail, which states had which laws. But just suffice it to say, some of the key states have that similar dynamic going on. OK, so Sagar and I on the show yesterday, we gave you kind of our analysis of what we think is going to happen. So I thought we could check in with our friends here, Kyle and Marshall, find out what you guys think for the night. Marshall, since I'm biased towards this one, I'll go ahead and kick it

off to you. What is your overall expectation? I think we all probably expect Republicans to take the House. What do you think? Do you think it's a huge margin? Do you think this is like red tsunami situation, red wave situation, or do Democrats somehow manage to cobble together their control of the Senate? I'm not a big ocean guy, but whatever a moderate tsunami is, that's what I would go with. Typhoon. Yeah, red typhoon. Moderate red tsunami is the take. It's going to be a little less hardcore than our friends on conservative Twitter are saying, but it's still going to be a really devastating midterm. Yeah. Yeah. What do you think, Kyle? I mean, I kind of agree with

Marshall. Uh, I will say that coming into this election, it was weird because this was the first election where I really felt like I had zero intuition about which way it was going to go. Um, I remember back in 2016, I was one of the people who was kind of sounding the alarm when it was clear there was going to be Hillary versus Trump, because I felt like he could kind of hammer away on all of her weaknesses effectively. But in this race, there's just so many variables that I keep bouncing around in my head. On the one hand, you think, look, inflation, inflation, inflation, crime, crime, crime. All the Republicans have to do is repeat that until the end of time. And then, you know, effectively they could win. But then on the other hand, Roe versus Wade was

overturned. And that's like a, that's a huge deal. And, you know, you also have, I think this pretty open extremism on the right that's different from previous iterations on the right, because about 53% of the Republican candidates either deny or question the election. And I think that might actually weigh on voters. And then you also have what I think are some pretty significant accomplishments from the Biden administration, from my perspective, in terms of my ideology, because you have student loan debt reduction, pardoning nonviolent weed offenders. You have the IRA, which granted, even though I think it was a weak piece of legislation overall compared to Build Back Better, you still had some great provisions in that, like 15 percent corporate minimum tax rate, 1 percent tax on stock buybacks,

billions of dollars more for Obamacare, which will give millions more Americans health care. So you have this like amalgamation of factors, which just makes it a big question mark. So I kind of agree with Marshall that ultimately, if he had a gun to my head and said, you have to pick something, you can't be agnostic. I want to be agnostic. But what I would say is probably Republicans, 51 or 52 seats in the Senate, and they're going to take the House, but it's not going to be as big as like the 2010 Tea Party wave. So Amy Walter over at Cook Political actually had a good, in terms of the like wave terminology, She had a good way of breaking down the three possibilities for the night.

So one, she said the red tsunami, which is like Republicans sweep all of the toss-up races. There's a huge wave in the House. You know, they gain control of the Senate quite handily, talking about something like 2010, right? Analogous to 2010 or 2006 from the Democrats. The next would be what she called wavy or maybe like wavish, which is sort of the scenario that I think you guys are laying out and that I also

sort of envision, which is the Republicans take control of the Senate, but it's sort of like just barely. They have essentially matched or maybe a little bit of an enthusiasm edge over the Democrats and independents break their way, but it's not overwhelming. And then you fall in that mark of like maybe 20 to 30 seats in terms of the House. And then you have the red ripple, which is like the House margins are really held down. They aren't able ultimately to take the Senate or it's very close or it's 50-50 again, or it comes down to a runoff in Georgia, which I also think is definitely a possibility. So I think those are like the realistic possibilities that are kind of on the table at this point. So we will read the tea leaves, even though you're not supposed to. And just let me also just before I read these exit polls oftentimes mean absolutely nothing.

They can be inaccurate. They are also all that we have at this moment. OK, so what do we have? And we were all looking at this. It's a little bit interesting. So this is from the CNN exit polls. Here's what they say. Feeling the way that things are going in the United States. Enthusiastic, 5%. Satisfied, 20%. Dissatisfied, 39%. Angry, 34%. What is your opinion of Joe Biden as president? This is surprising, Crystal. Approve, 45%. Disapprove, 54%. That is a much higher approval rating than he's had in a long time.

That's actually, for him, not bad. I mean, if you're president of the United States and you're going into the midterms, you never want to see your approval rating underwater. But 45% is on the higher end of what he's been getting. It tells you, at least in the composition of this exit poll, which again, you should take with like a million grains of salt and basically discard entirely. But at least in the composition of this exit poll, they're slightly more favorable to him than what polls have been showing recently. And we also have seen a pretty consistent trend of the Democratic Senate candidates outrunning Joe Biden. Not so much because, I mean, some of them I do think genuinely are good candidates. Mark Kelly, I would put in that category. I think Warnock, I would put in that category as well.

Fetterman, I put in that category until he had a stroke, but also because the Republicans nominated a bunch of psychos that has caused, you know, some problems for them on the other side. So I think that's why Democrats on at the Senate level have kind of consistently outperformed Biden's approval rating. So when you see him at 45 percent, if if that was accurate, which is like, again, a gigantic, gigantic if that's we're just doing a lot of work there, then if you're Democrats, you're going, OK, we're in the ballgame. We got a shot. Right. And I think actually I'll kick it to you, Marshall, and to Kyle on this one. This is I found absolutely fascinating. Was your U.S. vote to, quote, support Biden, 18 percent, oppose Biden, 32 percent? Biden, not a factor, 48 percent. And this also impacts, though,

which is that the effect of Biden's policies on the country, hurting, 46, helping, 36, not making a difference, 16. Did any of those numbers stick out to you? For me, it was Biden, not a factor. What do you think, Marshall? Biden, not a factor. And I think, to Crystal, what you were saying about how Biden's polls are decent actually for a president in this period, I think they're a little better than what Trump's were during the 2018 midterms. This gets at the difficulty of trying to read too much into these election results for 2024. The second it becomes personal, that is going to scramble. And this doesn't feel personal right now out of audiation level if you're looking at these, like, House and Senate candidates.

I want to pick up on one thing, Kyle, you said that's interesting here and why it's hard to get a big narrative about this election. The democracy, the election integrity claims, like, the races where it's making an effect are not. Like, Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, like, he's probably going to lose tonight because he's seen as an extreme, because he is an extremist. It's not just like a perception thing. He's actually extreme on election denial issues. But Carrie Lake, Arizona, she at the same time is not being punished for it. So I'm interested in not just like dunking on people saying like, oh, why are we talking about democracy so much? Why does it work in certain races and not in others? I'm curious if you have a theory for that, Kyle. I don't have a theory for that, but I also find it fascinating

like you do. Crystal, you bring something up all the time that I think is really interesting, which is, what are voters going to prioritize, like, evaluating individual candidates or just, like, the national mood? Right. Because in this instance, those things are totally at odds. They are completely contradictory. If you go, like, individual candidates, you're going to look at the Carrie Lakes, you're going to look at the Mastrianos. You're going to look at even Oz, I would argue. And you're going to be like, oh, I don't like that. But if you just go national mood, I mean, historically, and I actually have the numbers up here. I wanted to share this with you guys. Historically, it is the case that at least in

recent American history, it is the case that you have these backlash pendulum elections. So in 1994, Bill Clinton had a 44% approval rating, which by the way, is the exact same approval rating Biden has today in the average of polls. He lost 54 seats. He had Barack Obama had a 45% approval rating. He lost 63 seats in 2010. And then of course, 2018, Trump had a 46% approval rating and he lost 40 seats. So we're seeing Biden with a 44% approval rating. Is he going to lose as many as Bill Clinton did who had the exact same approval rating or is it going to be less? Part of why it could be less could is because, you know, I was actually on the ballot in 2010 running a hopeless campaign as a Democrat for Congress in

a very conservative area, area in like the Tea Party wave year. And so I remember it quite well. And it wasn't just that Republicans were super energized, and they were, it was also that Dems were depressed. You know, they had so much hope for the Obama era. And they had so much, you know, they really believed in this guy. And they really thought that things were going to change and the country was going to be transformed. It was going to be this whole thing. And then when he's a disappointment and, you know, the dreams didn't all come true, there was a huge depression in terms of the Democratic vote. Democrats are very highly motivated. I mean, Republicans might be more motivated. And I think

independents seem to, at least in the most recent polls, have swung towards Republicans for a variety of issues. I would lay that primarily in terms of the economy, but I think crime has been a part of that as well. But you do have perhaps a match in terms of Democratic enthusiasm and Republican enthusiasm. That's why I don't know that it'll be the blowout tsunami wave that you saw in a year like 2010. I'll tell you another thing that I was thinking about today in terms of what you were just saying, Kyle, and like the candidate quality question versus the national mood question. To me, the House races are almost 100 percent just national mood. Absolutely. People don't really pay attention to the congressional candidates. There's not enough ad spending like you don't really know the ins and outs of who they are

and whether you like them or not and what they've done or what they want to do. That to me is almost completely just national mood. At the Senate level, you get a little bit more of a sense of these people as characters and as individuals. And so I could see a scenario where it really is kind of a Democratic bloodbath in the House. And yet it's not quite as ugly a picture for them in the Senate. And that really is, again, less a testament, I think, to any sort of Democratic messaging or strategy or whatever. But the fact that Republicans have really, you know, tested the willingness of voters to see how far they will go. And there were some numbers out of Georgia, Sagar, I don't know if you have them in front of you, exit poll numbers, asking voters what they thought of Herschel Walker versus Raphael Warnock.

And they asked in particular, like, who shows good judgment? And it was overwhelmingly like people felt like Warnock had much better judgment than Herschel Walker does. So clearly there has been an assessment of their character. Now, is that determinative of their vote? Nobody knows. But I can see the candidate quality piece being at least somewhat more significant at the Senate level than it is at the House level. To me, this is the ultimate test of that political science study, which we had about a decade ago, which is, does political quality, does candidate quality matter at all?

And in general, overwhelmingly, people continue to tell us no. Now, as Ryan very aptly pointed out on the show, we have never had the candidates that we had of this type. So it's a true test to what you alluded to. I have it in front of me. Who shows good judgment for, again, exit polls, take it with a massive grain of salt, don't know if it's true or not, but it's all we got. Only Warnock, 46% shows good judgment. Only Walker shows good judgment, 28%, both at five, neither at 18. Another, I think, interesting one, you know, in that regard around Georgia is around the extremism issue. They're like, do you think that Herschel Walker is extreme or not? And in that one, I mean, you didn't see,

sorry. It was fairly close. It was like Warnock had actually, it was like 43 percent and 39 percent for. Oh, I got it almost right. Right. Four and thirty nine percent. Right. So only Warnock they say is too extreme. Forty four percent. Only Walker. Thirty nine.

Neither at nine and both at five, which is just such an amazing testament to candidate. Sorry to partisan polarization in terms of nobody says both. It really is either this guy or my guy. Neither or. I find that a little bit interesting. As to whether it even matters or not, I mean, I think it's worth going over the 538 element. So why don't we go ahead, guys, number two, let's go and put that up there on the screen. So we had the 538 average pulled and what we'll put up there on the screen shows it at 55 to 45.

Now it's actually adjusted. So that one shows 58 to 42. Since that actually was made, it is now actually at 59 to 41 in terms of their percentage chances. I think it's also worth going race by race as to what the most razor-tight ones are according to their polling average weight. Adam Laxalt and Cortez Masto,

they have it 51 in 100 in Nevada. For the audience which is watching, Ryan and Emily will be on at that time, but we really are not going to know a lot until around 11 p.m. Eastern time. Oz Fetterman, though, they switched Crystal much more in the Oz direction just in the last 24 hours. They have it now at 57% chance of Oz winning, given the last polls that all came in in his favor. For Warnock, they actually have

it at 63% for Herschel Walker, which I found interesting. Blake Masters, they have losing. They have a 66% chance in favor of Mark Kelly. That's kind of an interesting one. That's how I thought it'd be. Yeah, it is. I mean, curious what you think, Marshall. Something I floated on the show was, I think the strength of Kerry Lake's candidacy vis-a-vis Katie Hobbs, who is just objectively like a very bad candidate, didn't do the debate, was hiding, may actually be the saving grace for Blake Masters. Because split ticket voting is just, it's a rare phenomenon in the year 2022. Yeah, there's a lot of that. And I think the other thing that's clear here,

well, Crystal, you said this, Mark Kelly is a good Democratic candidate in a state like Arizona. Yeah. So you're just really seeing that this is where the, to your point, anecdotally, I just can't reject the candidate quality story here, but it seems to be the story of this year right now. And I think the other thing that, I want to just pick up on real quick, Crystal, because I think it's important to know for people,

when you're talking about 2010 versus 2022, the difference in 2010 is like, you and I were door knocking. Yeah. And you're kind of having to walk around and be like, oh, like here are all these things that are happening. And here's why this Obama agenda thing is actually kind door knocking. You're kind of having to walk around and be like, oh, here are all these things that are happening. And here's why this Obama agenda thing is actually kind of good. That's kind of difficult to do.

Democrats, like I'm coming from Texas, Democrats are energized. And in weird ways, they're acting like they're not in control right now. So if you're a Democrat, you control the House. You control the Senate. You control the presidency. It does not feel like that in the country right now. And if you're looking at where the Biden administration has really struggled, it's at the contradiction there. You both own it.

But if you're looking at Supreme Court decision, if you're looking at the student loan issue, the Supreme Court itself, too, you don't feel like you're in control. So that's going to be a confounding variable for the next bit. Let me give you guys an interesting data point on Pennsylvania, because I know that the polls now show that Oz is up and he closed the gap. I mean, there was a while where Fetterman was way up. Oz closed the gap and now he's up, at least according to the 538 numbers, which is like the average of the polls. CBS Pennsylvania exit poll. Which one of these issues mattered most to your vote? Abortion is number one, 36%.

Very interesting. Behind that is inflation, 28%. Shocked by that. I was shocked by that, too. I was very shocked by that. Well, whether it's true or not, that's the real question. I think let's go ahead and put number six up there. We've got the Pennsylvania RCP average that shows us exactly what we're working with and why the 538 average moved in that direction.

So we have RCP and 538 there. What they show is that Oz in the final average is up by only 0.1. I mean, that's not a margin that you necessarily would want. You've got plus two, plus two, plus three. And then you have that very strange Marist poll, which we talked about on our last show, Crystal, with Fetterman up by six points. I mean, look, on that one, I think it's difficult, which is that I do tend, though, to come back on Biden may be more important in Pennsylvania, given that he has such a low approval rating. Well, here's... Right, go ahead.

Well, going back to like a whole candidate quality question, which is kind of central to what ultimately happens tonight, right? Because if you're going by the fundamentals, the Democrats are done, they're toast, it's over, it's ugly, you know, Republicans are winning like 56 seats in the Senate. The only reason Democrats really have a shot is because there are some questions about these candidates. I mean, Pennsylvania at this point, at the beginning of this race, I really thought Fetterman was not just like an okay candidate. I really thought he was one of the best Democratic candidates in the country because he had that just natural, authentic,

everyman appeal. There's no doubt about it. The fact that he had a stroke really made things challenging for him. I mean, the debate performance, it was very difficult to watch. But Oz is also a terrible candidate. Like, need we remind everyone of the whole crudité situation and how he was completely, at the beginning of the campaign especially, the Fetterman team did an amazing job of reminding people, like, this guy's a carpetbagger and he's an elitist and he's out of touch. And even post-stroke, Oz's approval ratings have been abysmal and Fetterman's have been really solid. People like John Fetterman. They may have questions about whether he's really up for the Senate now or not, but they generally like John Fetterman

more than they like Dr. Oz. So that one I sort of put as a wash in terms of candidate quality. But I think the governor's race in Pennsylvania, you're talking about, well, what's different there versus the governor's race in Arizona, since you have two like extreme election deniers on the Republican ticket and one of them, Carrie Lake, seems very likely to win. And the other one, Doug Mastriano, seems very likely to lose there. I think candidate quality really is the only thing you can point to. Yeah, I think you're right. And in my opinion, candidate quality is actually more important for governor's races, which tend to be somewhat less partisan. You see a place like Vermont elect a Republican. You see a place like Maryland elect a Republican.

You see a place like Kentucky elect a Democrat. So you have a bit more of voters who are open to either party at the gubernatorial level because it's less less about like these hard partisan who's going to control the Senate kind of questions. And in Mastriano, you have a very poor candidate who's also very extreme. In Josh Shapiro, who's the Democratic choice, you actually have a very good candidate who has proven himself to the state at a statewide level. He's taken on big corporations. He's taken on big pharma. He took on the Catholic Church. And there seems to be an awareness of that among the electorate. I think that's part of why he's had a consistent edge going into election night. And maybe that's something that helps Fetterman here down the stretch. On the other hand, to your point, Sagar, about, you know, Arizona at the gubernatorial level, Katie Hobbs, the Democrat, has been very

lackluster. She was very obviously too scared to debate. Carrie Lake, Carrie Lake is crazy, but she is very talented and charismatic on camera. She's a star. She's, you know, a television personality. She knows what she's doing. She comes across as very confident. And so I think in those situations, the only thing you can really point to there is you have two very different slates of candidates and candidate quality situations. Wait, question for the panel around Fetterman, because Chris, you were kind of hinting at this. Yeah. How much did the peak Fetterman, June to July, online dunking matter? It felt like it really mattered at the time, so once again, the credit to ads,

the brilliant memes, did it matter at all, or was it a wash? I think it mattered. I think it was the substance of the dunking, because the original argument was basically like a carpetbagger argument. He's a carpetbagger, plus he's a massive elitist, and they kind of hammered away on that endlessly.

But then I do feel like they sort of lost the specific nature of those attacks moving forward, and then, of course, the stroke, you know, throws a wrench into the whole thing. But, I mean, I do think that mattered. But, Crystal, let me ask you about Carrie Lake, because I've been thinking about this. Is it really just, like, the charisma thing? Because the fact of the matter is if you, like, take what she says and just, like, write it down and hand it to somebody, people would be like, whoa, what is this?

This is wild. But is it just like you said, she's good on camera. She delivers stuff well. Is that enough? Is that really all that matters? And what does that say about us if that's the case? Donald Trump was president of the United States. Have you heard of a Donald J. Trump?

So, listen, I can't claim to be like really deep into the weeds of Arizona politics to say for sure if there weren't things that like Katie Hobbs did that pissed people off other than not doing the debate or like that people actually like about Carrie Lake's platform, I really don't know. But from at the surface level, it appears to me that the fact that she is super confident, charismatic, you know, presents herself well, super comfortable on television seems to be doing a lot for her here. And just to go back to the Oz Fetterman question of whether those dunks mattered, I think they really defined Oz in a very negative way from the beginning. And he's never recovered. I mean, he's still, I'm looking at this poll from five days ago, he's underwater, favorability rating upside down, only 35% have a favorable rating of him to 52% unfavorable, whereas Fetterman is still above water in terms of his favorability rating. So to the extent that Fetterman is still in this fight, and my prediction was that ultimately Oz is actually going to pull it out. So I'm on the record of saying I think at this point it's probably Oz's race to lose.

But to the extent that Fetterman still has a shot in this thing, it's because people just like him more than they like Dr. Oz. No, I think you're absolutely correct. You know, some interesting data that we have out right now on Miami-Dade County. So in terms of what's happening with Ron DeSantis, he is up currently by eight points with 66% of the votes in. And that is the same county that he lost, Crystal, by 20 points just four years ago. So that is a, I mean, look, I don't have to tell everybody about the demographics of Miami-Dade County, but just to show you about how exactly the Latino realignment is, particularly with Cuban immigrants and others in Florida, that is a stunning development.

The other newsy point that I want to point on Arizona, this I predict is going to be a big thing. I was flagging it to you earlier. There were reports about problems in Maricopa County, about voting machines. The RNC right now is actually filing an emergency motion to extend polling hours in Maricopa County because voting machines, this is according to them, in over 25% of voting locations have experienced, quote, significant issues. The widespread issues in an election administered by Katie Hobbs are unacceptable. This is from RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel. As Republicans are flocking to the polls, vote in person on election day. They have dozens of attorneys and thousands of volunteers.

So if it is close, I expect that to be a major flashpoint. Well, I mean, this is it's ironic because it used to be that Democrats were the ones that were really concerned about Election Day issues, because typically those issues were in the cities. And we're seeing that today in Philadelphia. They're having issues. And typically, you know, it was Democratic voters who were actually more likely to vote on Election Day. Post-COVID and especially post-Trump, you now have this hard partisan split where, and this is, you know, this is an important factor for Republicans. Democrats have had weeks of early voting to turn their people out and figure out who voted and who hasn't. Let's get them to the polls and let's turn out like the ones who are reluctant, et cetera, et cetera. Republicans put all of their eggs now in this election day basket.

So when there are problems in Maricopa County, as there are always issues every election somewhere in the country, they're freaking out. And of course, they're not freaking out of like, oh, no, they're having issues. They're freaking out of like, they're stealing it again and it's rigged. Of course, if the results go in their favor, then suddenly it's going to be all above board. I think they're pre-working the ground there, certainly. I mean, look, we'll see. In terms of what the actual effect on that was, it was incredibly, it's just, my thing is with Katie Hobbs and all of them is like, you knew this was coming. And it's like, still, like, what happened? Why exactly did 25 or 10 percent? I'm going to go with 10 to 20, which is what I saw from the actual

press conference. Like, how do these machines just go down? You have to know that that is going to go with 10 to 20, which is what I saw from the actual press conference. Like, how do these machines just go down? You have to know that that is going to fuel like a serious partisan problem after two years of literal madness in Arizona, where you had all those lawsuits and the fake audits. And then there was actually a compromise in voting machines by the Republican side, by the overstocked billionaire, which I'm going down real, real rabbit holes in terms of my memory for the fallout from that. I do think it is a major problem, as you said, which is'm going down real, real rabbit holes in terms of my memory for the fallout from that. I do think it is a major problem, as you said, which is that Pennsylvania now says that they had that problem. Then you also have the, sorry, Philadelphia had that problem. Arizona,

I do expect that to be a flashpoint, but I also, it could disappear. Like if Katie, if Katie Hobbs just comes out at the moment that the polls close in Arizona and wins, that it'll very likely disappear. But this is one I wanted to highlight for the audience because I do kind of expect if we see some closer results. Do you think, Marshall, that the election denialism will play a big role here in the election in terms of like day of? This is the awkward situation,

which is not if Republicans win, right? So I was listening to a podcast earlier to prep and someone pointed out that, look, Carrie Lake is gonna declare victory whether she wins or loses. And that's kind of the dynamic here. And I kind of want to build on something. I've been thinking about this election denial issue. Look, there's no conspiracy.

I think that there's a large focus on where is the threat to like democratic legitimacy, I think it's perfectly reasonable for people who aren't engaged with politics to say like, wait, like it doesn't feel like elections have always been this much of a cluster F. So I think that. But they actually have been. Have they been? I mean, exactly. The hanging chads. Like, come on. They always because and it's part of like part of the strength and the resilience of the system is that you have each individual county running these things by a bunch of volunteers, you know.

And so, of course, sometimes things are going to go awry. There's no doubt about it. And by the way, I wanted to point out that the Maricopa County Twitter account is throwing haymakers at everybody who's criticizing them right now. They're responding to Charlie Kirk and everybody and saying like, oh, all this stuff is false. They're engaging in the discourse. Right. Very heavily. But I also wanted to give you guys just some more specifics on the election deniers, because

I think these numbers are fascinating. So apparently 60 percent of Americans have won at least one election denier on the ballot. Out of 552 total Republican nominees running for office, 199 fully denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. 61 still question the election. Only 77 have fully accepted the results of the 2020 election. 93 accepted it with reservations. And what they say, at least according to 538, is that you have at least 100 are guaranteed to win. So, you know, it's not even competitive, including three in the Senate. But the more important point, and Crystal, you pointed this out to me earlier, is that you also have in governor's races, there's two election deniers and four election doubters are shoe-ins. And then you have probably even more importantly, attorney generals and, or attorneys general and

secretaries of state. There's a bunch of them as well, seven election deniers running there for, for both respectively for both secretary of state and attorneys general. So in total, 53% of Republicans running either question or deny the election outright. So we are starting to get some very, very early numbers out of the state of Georgia. And it's not even really worth telling you exactly what they are. But there is one trend that is pretty clear already. candidate quality, Governor Kemp, who is being challenged by Stacey Abrams again, rematch there, is outpacing Herschel Walker in his, you know, challenge to Raphael Warnock. So Kemp feels very confident, you know, obviously that he's going to ultimately prevail. The polls have consistently shown him up. But it does show you that, you know, in Georgia, even in times as sort of partisan and

hardened as they feel, you have a significant and potentially determinative number of voters who are splitting their ticket and voting for the Republican for governor and voting for the Democrat for the Senate. Also a reminder in Georgia, you have to get over 50 percent in order to avoid a runoff. And all of the polls leading up to election day have shown, you know, whether they show Walker with a narrow lead or Warnock with a narrow lead, they show both of them coming in under 50 percentage points. So I think it is, you know, highly possible that we end up with yet another Georgia Senate runoff. I think you're right. And Sean Trendy over at RealClearPolitics talking about this,

saying that Walker currently is running at about four points behind Brian Kemp. So that is a question of do you think that Brian Kemp is going to get more than 54 percent of the raw vote? So if he does, then it's possible that Walker could have over 50. I generally think you're right, which is that I don't see necessarily a world. But listen, we will see in terms of right now, like what the major hot story I think is, is it's what I mentioned before on Miami-Dade County and the interim numbers coming out of Florida with regards to Ron DeSantis. There's some current numbers do look like he may win actually by almost 10 percent, which is crazy when you consider how he barely won the gubernatorial election against Andrew Gillum. I mean, he almost didn't win the Republican primary until Trump came and endorsed him, which is a different question, which I think you will hear quite a bit about if he does decide to run against Trump. Marco Rubio also right now, we've got 50% of the vote in so far from Florida. He's up very comfortably over Val Demings. It wasn't

necessarily a question. In terms of any other races, if people are interested that have only been called, we're going by the AP tonight, everybody. Kentucky, Rand Paul, officially reelected. Okay. Okay. Big surprise there. Tim Scott, officially reelected there. And then Peter Welch winning in Vermont. The Tim Scott one just reminds me of one of my favorite stories around how exactly and how wrong the polls truly can be. Well, let's all remember Lindsey Graham in 2020. Jamie Harrison was said to be within just one shot. He raised over $100 million, only one point away. Jim Clyburn said that he could pull him

across the finish line. He ended up winning by like losing by 17 points, which is almost the exact same margin as the person who ran against Lindsey Graham six years prior. So to have nearly a 17 point wrong swing in the state of South Carolina, almost the exact same margin as the person who ran against Lindsey Graham six years prior. So to have nearly a 17 point wrong swing in the state of South Carolina, we should all prepare ourselves for results like that. I've rewarded him by making him DNC. Yeah, that's right. They

rewarded him by making him the DNC chair. I'm also really reminded whenever we're going to talk in the context of New Hampshire is Maine. I mean, we cannot forget Susan Collins outpaced by nine points to actually finish quite comfortably in the state of Maine when she was considered an absolute goner on almost every statewide poll, so-called high quality. I was talking about this earlier today. I'm actually curious, Marshall Kyle, what you guys think. Why is it that we seem unable to properly poll non-college educated whites? It is a story that is just does not seem solvable. Like it seems at this point somebody would be able to properly weight some formula. And yet since Donald Trump came on the ballot, Marshall, it has just not yet been possible,

which is crazy for the people like us who have to sit here and prognosticate. It was like, listen, we have to bake in an assumption of completely being wrong in a way that we haven't in modern history in a long time. Yeah, and like you said, it's a new dynamic to politics. It hasn't been... It's hard because very well-paid, very smart people have spent the last eight years focused on this issue.

And it just seems like this is one of those categories where we're going to have to just factor this in for the next next eight years like this is this is kind of the story of the decade just how that gap between college educated and non-college educated whites that's the center of politics right now yeah what do you think kyle um well crystal was reading me earlier today remember the 538 article from nate silver he was like having an identity crisis and writing it down yeah explaining like oh how do we weigh this thing versus how do we weigh that thing? How do we make it work? And, you know, look, the thing that really shook my faith massively was that typically in modern American history,

you had, you know, there would be an advantage for the Democrats baked into the polls. But then it was the opposite in these special elections that just happened. I think it was five House special elections post Dobbs. Correct. And it was the exact opposite. And I was like, wait, what? I always thought either the polls were gonna be like

roughly accurate or you're gonna have a baked in like four point Democratic advantage. But at this point now, this is my answer. Every time people ask me, I'm like, I don't know. I'm in the same boat. I'm going off gut feeling now. Vibes. Vibes.

It literally is. I know. It is so crazy. Here's a fun data point coming out from the AP. Stacey Abrams currently running behind Warnock by eight points. Wow. So the Democratic dream. Stacey Abrams raised, I mean, tens of millions of dollars, became a massive star in her own right.

Go ahead. Kemp stood up to Trump. Yes. He is not an election denier. Correct. And it looks like he's, if anything, he's being rewarded for that. You know what's funny, Kyle? Trump actually endorsed him yesterday.

Oh, really? Trump came out. It was a quiet endorsement. Trump came out and was like, I give Brian Kemp my support. Why? We all know why. Because he's going to win. So he's like, see, I give Brian Kemp my support. Why? We all know why. Because he's going to win. So he's like, see, I had the better.

Even though I literally went to the state and said I would rather have Stacey as governor after it looks like he's going to win. Trump is behind. I mean, I want to say one thing about Stacey Abrams, who was really built up as like this next Democratic star. And there were, you know, glossy profiles written for her in the Washington Post and photo shoots and all this stuff. Part of her mystique was that she had built this voter turnout operation in Georgia. That was the whole idea is like Stacey Abrams cracked the code. Remember when Joe Biden wins Georgia by this

narrow margin, everyone's saying it's because of this voter turnout machine that Stacey Abrams was able to put together and focused on and what she did. And listen, I'm not there. I don't know. Maybe it did make a difference ultimately. But she wasn't able to turn that machine on clearly in order to get herself sufficient votes to come close to defeating Brian Kemp. It's not over yet. It's not called. But it doesn't look good for her when she's running so significantly behind Warnock ultimately. One other note on the Georgia race. This is from at Tanya O'Daniel

Nishanian, who, by the way, Bolts Magazine, you guys got to follow them if you can. They have a wonderful election cheat sheet with all of the ballot initiatives, everything that is at stake in this election, no matter, you know, they lean to the left and they focus a lot on criminal justice issues, but just in terms of information, totally second to none. So shout out to them. But he's saying that we now have an interesting data point from Georgia, which is that the libertarian candidate is only garnering about 1.4%. That's crazy. So that means that the Walker Warnock margin would have to be under whatever the libertarian

candidate is getting in order to go to a runoff under whatever the Libertarian candidate is getting in order to go to a runoff. So since the Libertarian candidate is getting such a small proportion, that makes it less likely that it is ultimately going to go to a runoff. That's actually a fascinating point. Go ahead, Marshall. Yeah, I want to build on the Warnock versus Stacey Abrams story, because if you're looking at lessons for Democrats, right? A lesson for Republicans we focus on tonight is, look, if you're going to have an election denier, make sure there are television personalities out there with talent. If you're a Democrat operating in a purple to red state, you need to be able to not be a part of the national mood. And it seems to me

the big mistake that Stacey Abrams has consistently made, and this is the mistake that also, like, nuked her vice presidential and like brought her 2020 chance. She feels the need to jump into the national discourse. And I don't just mean like commenting on issues, but she just clearly is a national political figure. And Warnock is not a national political figure. Same thing goes for Mark Kelly. Same thing goes for Fetterman. So if you're a Democrat in these types of states, you need to have a personality, which all three of those do, but you also just cannot be part of that national story. So I read it just a little bit differently. I mean, I agree with what you're saying,

but the other thing is Georgia historically is a red state and you have Warnock and Ossoff pulled off the upset there recently. And when I look at Warnock, I think he has like every excuse in the world to go full Joe Manchin and full Kyrsten Sinema. And he just didn't. He's actually been like a loyal vote for Biden. And I view that as almost like super serving the Democratic base. So the model going forward should be for Democrats like super serve your base. And then maybe you'll have a shot even in an off year, as opposed to trying to please everybody like Joe Manchin. And of course, most importantly, Manchin and Sinema like to please their donors. But like trying to portray

yourself as like, oh, I'm a maverick and I'm an iconoclast and I could reach across the aisle. Sometimes voters sniff that out for what it is. And it's really fake. And in the case of Warnock, he didn't do that. And perhaps he's getting rewarded for that. It's possible. You know, Mark Kelly is an interesting example, too. He basically had a 97 percent voting record with Biden. And yet, like, how exactly does he maintain his credibility? From what I have read, really what it is, is that he's willing to depart with Biden on the border. He's willing to call him out locally. He grants a lot of interviews to the local... This is where I just don't know, Marshall. How much of the whole all politics is local, all politics is national,

but then guys like Kelly exist. And you're like, hey, I mean, he does well. I mean, he didn't do particularly well in the debate, but like he gives interviews to like Arizona Central. He makes sure that in the debate, he's like, I call on Joe Biden to like restore our board. But he doesn't ever do that. Whenever he's here in Washington, he doesn't go up to Manu Raju in the CNN cameras and be like, I'm calling out Joe Biden here right now. But he does it in his ads. And somehow it doesn't come across as fake. It's a very interesting story. Well, there's something we kind of, totally different topic.

We kind of glossed over it, right? With those Miami-Dade numbers. What happened to Florida over the past 20 years? Great question. That's actually a really, like, it's not purple. It's red. You know, it's 2000 election. That's Florida.

It's a state that Democrats were very, very close to winning. 2008, like, what do you guys think happened? Same thing happened to Ohio. I have to think that it has a lot to do with the Latino swing to Republicans. The Miami-Dade numbers are a perfect indication of that. Especially, the Florida Latino community tends to be more conservative because it's disproportionately Cuban. So if I had to say what happened in Florida, I think that's got to be a significant part of it. I got one more for you, too. Yeah.

The villages. That's what happened. The villages. You got all these retirees moving there. A lot of boomers. Lean conservatives. A lot of boomers in Florida. Probably cameras.

A lot of QAnon faithful down there. You got all kinds of stuff going on. They have Rick Scott, Mr. Cut Social Security as their senator. So it's a weird state. This is like, that's the state. I don't get it. You know, Rick's personal profile versus how he is in the state actually is, again, to the whole local thing. Like, Rick actually speaks fluent Spanish, and he made like 12 trips to Puerto Rico whenever he was running.

He made like Puerto Rico aid a big thing for him. I always found that kind for him. I always found that kind of fascinating. I don't know. I'm curious for everybody, before we all jump in at 8 p.m., a lot of DeSantis bros are blowing out about his numbers right now. So even my friend, Michael Brendan Doherty, who generally is not one to go with this, he says, quote, every political professional, GOP, conservative populist is going to look at these Florida numbers and want DeSantis as the 2024 nominee. Noah Rothman also, to be clear, never Trump guy, but he says, quote, Donald Trump has spent the last 48 hours loosing unprovoked attacks on DeSantis. If DeSantis' only response is a 15 to 20 point statewide victory in Florida, I don't think that he needs any other.

What do you think, Marshall? There's a lot of hope here right now. You did a good job of picking two people who I don't think are coping. They're actually giving their opinions. Yeah, they're giving their real analysis. But these are stupid opinions. The notion that Republican voters, the actual base of the Republican voters saying, oh, look at those 15 to 20. Literally no one is choosing their 2020. Like, hey, Florida, any Republican nominee in 2024 is winning Florida. Yes. like that's the whole point of this conversation We just had so that's not the debate the debate and within the Republican Party is not like hey

You know, can you in Florida the debate is who do we want representing us? And from my perspective you talk to any actual there's a great tweet on this where someone said people on Twitter who are Standing for DeSantis right now over Trump or disproportionate with people who wanna get jobs for DeSantis versus actual Republican voters. Talk to any of your family members who are Trump people, they'll say, DeSantis, nice guy, I like him. He could come in 2028, 2032, he's young, I like Trump. Yeah, exactly.

I happen to know that Kyle has a difference of opinion. I do, really. Because we've been privately having a debate for several months now. We've been privately and publicly having a debate. Let has a difference of opinion. I do, really. Go ahead. Because we've been privately having a debate for like several months now. Let's hear it. Privately and publicly having a debate. Let's hear it. Look, I mean, bottom line is, we're looking at the reality of a potential

indictment for Donald Trump. And not only that, you might also look at a conviction for Donald Trump because he's got so many lawsuits. I mean, I literally can't even name them all off the top of my head. I believe it's seven. That's how many there are. Yeah. You know, I literally can't even name them all off the top of my head. That's how many there are. You have the federal investigation in DC over the top secret and classified documents. You have, of course, the civil case in New York over all of his fraudulent business practices. And that press conference from Letitia James, if you haven't seen it,

go watch it because it's amazing. The crimes she alleges are so specific. There's so much detail that it's mind blowing. Anyway, so there's all these different cases against Trump. I think an indictment is likely. I think a conviction is possible. The only thing that we're really relying on, and granted, this is difficult to do, but does Merrick Garland have a pair? If he has a pair and he does what he's supposed to do, look, I'm very critical of the Republican Party and the Republican base. But, you know, Crystal and I were debating this the other day. Can Donald Trump win the Republican primary from prison?

I'm a hard no on that. I think that it would be DeSantis. Oh, he would. He would definitely. He would not only win, he would win bigger than if he was in prison. Disagree. I just want to disagree. We just want to disagree on that.

One big thing to respond to this on, we kind of had a test of this already, which is that when the Mar-a-Lago raid happened, every single Republican who, given everything you just said, believes what you just said. Every single establishment Republican in the back of their head is like, yeah, this is obviously not good. This is definitely bad. They wouldn't privately defend it. But they fell on their swords for him. Big time. DeSantis, they went every single time they've had an opportunity to implement what you've described. They haven't gone for it.

I do not see a word where Ron DeSantis gets on the debate stage and says, you know what, Donald, we both know you're going to be in prison this time next year. You're not going to be the nominee. I don't think he needs to do that. What does he need to do? Look, we're talking short term, long term, too. I mean, I saw the numbers right after that raid. I saw that they went up for Trump.

But I think it's a little fake in the long run in the same way that an investigation into Hillary Clinton by the FBI didn't help her in the 2016 race. I don't think this helps Trump in any way, shape, or form. And I think in many ways, like, look, the chances of him winning, becoming president again after everything that's already gone on, zero. Really? Wow. He would absolutely get obliterated all right everybody everybody by anybody by anybody they're over it americans are over it i get you have your little click of 30 that's just absolutely psychotic for you great

have fun with that try winning a national election on that that's 2016 that's the problem he had real outsider appeal in 2016, I think. There are two totally different questions there, though. One is the general election. Let's put that to the side. Because I do think, listen, if he's in prison, I think he's going to be a tough sell to the general public. I hope.

Fingers crossed. I think it's a better sell. The Republican primary electorate, they're his. I mean, he's announcing in like three days. It's done. And Ron DeSantis, like, he immediately bent the knee. The moment. And that's the same thing that's going to happen.

Trump is going to announce. Then he's probably going to get indicted. And it's going to be another moment where they all have to rally to him. And then what? I mean, you've already filed for presidency. And Ron DeSantis has never done anything other than these little sort of like, you know, subtweet jabs at Trump. The minute you come directly for him, it is a totally different dynamic. One second, guys. We do have our people on standby. I just want to go ahead and tell the crew, let's go ahead and get Lewis ready from Oz HQ, I believe, because I know that we are there.

All right, so we actually have him ready. All right, let's go ahead and bring him in if we can. Okay, hey, Louis, how are you? So this is Louis Stangelis. He's the Dr. Oz event. Thank you very much to our premium subs who enabled to be there. Louis, give us a sense. What's going on on the ground?

You're there at Dr. Oz HQ. What's the feeling? Polls are closing very soon. What are you seeing? Absolutely. Thanks for having me on, guys. Excited to be here. Yep, I'm here at the Dr. Oz event. The last couple of days have been across the state. I came in on Saturday. First thing in Pittsburgh, we headed over to the Donald Trump event that was going on there. Sunday, we were

at the Bernie Sanders event that was taking place in Pittsburgh. Monday night, we were at a John Fetterman event. So we've really talked to all sorts of people all over the place. I drew the short stick and had to drive over from Pittsburgh this morning and made the six-hour trek over, but we made it. Yes, yeah, yeah, no problem, no problem. Although I'm a little upset. I was expecting there to be potentially some crudité here. None yet.

I will keep you posted if that changes. Well played. We will see. But, yes, thank yet. I will keep you posted if that changes. We will see. But yes, thank you. I've been saving that one. Six hours to write the joke. So, Lewis, since you talked to voters who were clearly very enthusiastic about Dr. Oz, or at least voting for him, very enthusiastic about Fetterman, did you see a difference in terms of how they were viewing the key issues. One thing I noted from some of the coverage that you all at Status Quo had sent us is the Fetterman voters talked a lot about Dr.

Oz's character. The Oz voters talked more about, you know, inflation, crime, immigration. They had sort of like big picture national issues in mind. Was that a sort of consistent theme with the voters that you spoke with? I would say that's fairly consistent, yes. One thing that I noted that I was a little bit surprised about, you know, from afar looking online, online Fetterman looks like the campaign has tons of energy behind it and everything. In person, I haven't seen it as much. If I'm being honest, when you compare Saturday night at the Trump event and the energy that was there, some of it, I'll be a crazy, but there's definitely an energy around all of that movement still. And then you compare it to on Sunday, the Bernie Sanders event that I was at was directly

across the street from a big college in Pittsburgh dorms, right across the street. There were maybe four or 500 people there. The park wasn't even close to full um and that was surprising to me i mean bernie sanders and college students that's that's his easy demographic to get them over there and they weren't showing up and then again last night at the fetterman event uh same kind of deal it was a little bit further out of pittsburgh but the turnout was was really not uh not what i was expecting the energy was fairly low i will say fetetterman's speech last night was probably the best I had heard him speaking so far. But unfortunately, I think that might be a little too little too late. That's interesting. That's why it's so valuable to

have you on the ground. It's not something that we can really get a sense of. In the interviews and stuff that you were giving for us, it was a lot of national talk about inflation from the GOP. Have you talked to any swing voters? I'm curious, like any people, first of all, let's be clear. Some people say they're swing voters, but then they're like, I would never vote for X in my life. But any actual swing voters in your estimation, maybe people who made up their mind

in the last couple of days, what are they saying? What is at the top of their mind? For sure. So a couple of people that I spoke to that were interesting and then a couple of folks I spoke spoke to that were interesting and then a couple of folks I spoke to outside while the press were waiting in line to get in here today said that anecdotally they had heard this a lot, too. The Oz Shapiro voter exists in decent number, I would say. Interesting. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I heard again, I had the six hour car ride today.

So I listened to your show from yesterday just to see what you all were talking about. And I heard one of you at one point say that you didn't think that that was going to be a thing. And I was actually surprised yesterday. I've met two of them myself just on the street. You know, it's one thing doing interviews with people on camera and everything. It's a whole other thing in the Uber, you know, talking to the hotel front desk person. And I feel like I've learned a lot more doing that sort of thing. I've got one good anecdote from an Uber driver. He was like a self-described conservative. And he was the first person actually to tell me that he was, you know, somebody who's going to vote for Oz. But to him, Mastriano was a little too out there. He said that Oz kind of rode the line well on the issue of abortion this gentleman was self-described pro-life but

he says that a lot of the Republicans running nationally have gone too far and that Dr. Oz has kind of ridden the more moderate line if you will making more compromise maybe not moderate might not be the right word but that he's a little bit open to the compromise.

Okay. Yeah. Very interesting stuff. Cool. Thank you so much. We're going to check back in with you later. Keep us posted, stay in touch, and let us know what you were seeing there on the ground. Thanks, Lewis. We really appreciate it. Absolutely. Thank you. Thanks, guys. Our pleasure. Okay. So I think we have the next guy who is up. Let's go ahead and see control room. If we're good, just give him a shout. We have John ready to go at the Fetterman event. All right.

We're not getting anything from him. Just on here. Oh, he's here. Okay. All right. Hey, John. John Farina at the Fetterman event. Great to see you, John.

Welcome. Thank you. So just give us a little bit of a vibes check there and what you have heard from voters while you're on the ground. So people haven't actually started coming into the theater here, the arena. It's mostly just press and staff. I guess they'll start letting people in in a few minutes, around 8. I haven't spoke with anybody outside here, but, you know, I was with Lewis this whole weekend and yesterday. Basically, a lot of people are looking forward to voting for Fetterman.

Haven't really spoke with any Oz supporters except for at the Trump rally. They're not as excited for Oz, but they're going with him because Trump is endorsing him, basically. Got it. So whoever Trump's going with, they're going with. And actually, I've been speaking with some people at the health level. No problem, John. It's all good. Am I here? Yeah, we got you. Listen, John, we're going to check back in with you later in the night once folks are arriving there and we start to get some poll results so we can see what is going on there on the ground. Thank you so much for taking the time with us.

And by the way, guys, both of these folks are with Status Coup. They enable all of our on-the-ground reporting. Actually, you guys, premium subscribers, enable that. Reminder, 10% discount. It's in the description box. Link in the description. But also, make sure you give Status Coup a follow because they're doing great work. And it's very expensive to travel around the country.

And they are doing that work, which really benefits us and benefits the entire independent media ecosystem. Yeah, it really does help to, you know, to have those guys. They travel all over. And, you know, Louis in particular, finding those interviews and he filmed some of that stuff for us that we played on the show, which was really, really valuable. So look, 755, everybody. If things are going to close five minutes, it's interesting. I mean, right now, go ahead. I was going to say, let me give you the numbers where they're at with a small percentage of the vote in, which means these numbers are not representative of the entire state. But I just want to give you a little bit of a sense of where things are right now, early in the night. So if we look at Florida, which actually, according to New York Times, has 71 percent of votes in.

So, yeah, a decent percentage of the state. And I'm just talking Senate right now. Rubio is up on Val Demings, 55 to 44. I'd say that's roughly in the ballpark of what we kind of expected there. Over in Georgia, right now you only have 22 percent of the vote in. So that is still extremely early. So these numbers will definitely change, will definitely tighten up. But you've got Warnock at 58 percent to Herschel Walker at 40 percent. That, again, is with, according to The New York Times, 22 percent of the vote in. You have in North Carolina, the Democrat. This is

with 42 percent of the vote in. Not sure what parts of the state, but again, these numbers will definitely change. You have the Democrat Sherry Beasley up 55% to Ted Budd, 43% hashtag stop the count. Um, over in Ohio, you have just 6% in, and again, Tim Ryan up 62, JD Vance, 38, very early, definitely going to change. And then you have over in New Hampshire, this is one that Democrats got super nervous about super late. And by the way, this is also a state where they decided to spend a bunch of money trying to make sure that a psycho election denier got the nomination on the Republican side. Now that guy is in striking distance of actually winning a Senate seat. Way to go, guys.

Anyway, at this point, Maggie Hassan does have the lead. That is with a mere 10 percent of votes in. She's at 63 percent. And Don Baldock, election denier, is at 35 percent. Tulsi endorsed, by the way. Oh, that's right. Tulsi endorsed. What's interesting about Baldock is that, as I was saying earlier in our last show, there is no early voting in New Hampshire, like not even close. So the election result is much more a reflection of the electorate today,

as opposed to, let's say, two weeks, three weeks. It could have some, given the fact that things were narrowing and moving much more in Republican direction, everybody always talks about momentum and whether that matters or not. I tend to think especially less in the Democratic context, given mail-in balloting and the way that the changes is generally nationally. But to have that dynamic in New Hampshirepshire is pretty interesting marshall well yeah one thing i want to bring up that came through the correspondence i can't believe we haven't talked about this but was trump a positive or a negative on the trail this year right because he was he made the point that people if you're at that you know trump show and i think that's the way to describe it you're

definitely there for trump not for oz but there's a lot of controversy of like, is Trump going to announce a few days ago? Is Trump starting a file? It's not necessarily a big deal. So where did we come to on positive or negative? Well, my opinion is overall negative because he's the reason why Republicans have such poor candidates in many of these races. I mean, Oz is him. Walker is him. Didn't he, like Masters is him. And not only that, but then when you look at the number of, like, Trump is stop the steal. And so when you have all these election deniers, people like Mastroianno, I mean, there's no reason Republicans shouldn't be winning the Pennsylvania governor's race this year and Mastroianno very likely to lose. So when

you look at the way that he shaped the candidate field and made it much poorer quality, I think you have to say he's a net negative. To be fair, though, you know, I think Mastriano, he didn't endorse him until like two days before because Mastriano was just going to win. So it's like, is that really Trump? There's no January 6th. There's no election. I don't disagree. So when I look at that holistically, you have to say like, you know, Kyle and I were talking about this earlier. You should actually make this point, Kyle, because I'm just stealing it from you. But right now you have a bunch of Republicans who are elected who go along with a bunch of nonsense but do not really believe it. You're about to have a lot of people who are true believers.

And that is kind of scary. Yeah. I mean, I think it's, they're in, they're in an impossible place right now, uh, because you can't really win a Republican primary. You're more likely to win a Republican primary if you have Trump's backing, but then you're definitely less likely to win the general because you're not going to get the independents. You're not going to get the moderates. You're not going to get the normies. You're not going to get the young voters. You're not going to get the women. You're just not going to get them unless you're Kerry Lake. Exactly. She's the only one who's like bucking the trend but generally speaking yeah it's difficult it's it's difficult for these candidates and it's sort of like you know a deal with the devil effectively like you'll get me through the primary then i'll

hit a brick wall in the general thanks coach you know what's the crazy thing is that care you know trump said today that he'll be announcing his vp pick very soon i think it's going to be carrie lake i really do he loves her Tulsi? He loves her. The one thing I, because I was thinking about this earlier, because I bought that, I buy that too. I think he really likes her,

but he also needs her there. That's true. Yeah, he does. You know, like it's, there's a, it's important for him to have his election denial people in place for next time around

to make sure it can swing in his direction. I also don't believe him. Yeah. Because think of, I hate doing the whole like, think of The Apprentice as the way to think of Trump. But why would Trump declare his VP candidates so early? Like it should be a thing. It should be entertaining.

There should be auditions and trials. And look, Carrie Lake, Carrie Lake could totally fall on her face. Oh yeah. Totally fall on her face. Like if there was an environment where Carrie Lake was going to succeed, it's charismatic as hell, Carrie Lake, against a mediocre Democrat during a red tsunami election. She can get into office when voters aren't purely thinking of inflation because it's not as much like the governor's issue as much. And totally fall flat. So I think Trump is not true about that.

You might be right. Okay, it's 8.01 p.m. here on the East coast. So here are the polls and where they have closed Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and here in Washington, D.C. So Pennsylvania, obviously, that's going to be the one that we're all watching. I don't know. I really am fascinated to see how it all comes out. Reminder that the Pennsylvania Secretary of State has already come out and said that we

are not going to likely to know the results for several days there. So everybody hold on to your hats, especially if it is as close as people are indicating. Some early vote numbers coming out. Some place in the Midwest, they already called the race for Todd Young winning his reelection in Indiana. Ohio, we've only got 9% of the vote that's come in there right now. Connecticut, they've called the race for Richard Blumenthal. Literally the moment the polls closed, they went ahead and called the race for him. Peter Welsh, also new senator for Vermont. Yeah, that's right, Pete Welsh in Vermont. They went ahead and called the race for him. Peter Welsh, also new senator for Vermont.

Yeah, that's right, Pete Welsh in Vermont. They went ahead and they called that for him. And then Maryland, Chris Van Hollen winning his reelection in Maryland. Basically no major upset there. I wonder if they called a governor there. Go ahead. I don't know if you mentioned this yet,

but they called Florida for DeSantis and for Rubio. Yes. So they did that. And then also, this is going back about 20 minutes or so, but I wanted to bring it up. Marjorie Taylor Greene has officially been reelected. Oh, well, that's a great question. That's a good example in terms of these scam—or it's not scam candidates, but—

She believes what she believes. No, no, I'm not talking about her. I'm not talking about her. The person running against her, the Democrat, raised some $15 million. That's insane. Running against her. It's like those Republicans who run against AOC who don't have a chance in hell. They end up raising like $20 million.

So if you're one of those people, don't fall for one of those ads. He was like, I'm going to take on Marjorie Taylor Greene. Ilhan Omar wins reelection by 73% of people. Like it's not going to happen. Her race was actually pretty bad. If you're a scam candidate. That was their problem, I think. I don't know what you think, Marshall. But they ran no TV ads at all and then she almost lost. She almost lost? No almost lost. No. She almost lost to Republicans. I'm talking about the opposition. It's not fair enough. So I have some interesting numbers out of Kentucky where they have an anti-abortion ballot initiative. Oh, voters are are also casting ballots on. So this is, again Daniel Neshanian of Bolts Magazine. He says that the pro-choice side in Kentucky has a chance to defeat the anti-abortion referendum. So it's early,

only 10% reporting. Rand Paul, who's already been declared the winner based on what they have in so far, but he leads 57 to 43. But the anti-abortion referendum is actually down by 10 points. We saw this in, what was it, Kansas or Missouri? So huge divide. I mean, that means you have a huge percentage of the Kentucky population that is like, yes to Rand Paul, no to this anti-abortion referendum. So that is absolutely fascinating. So let's dig in a little bit to the DeSantis numbers. Everybody calling it now here.

Guys, he is at 57 percent of the vote. What percentage? Charlie Crist at 42. This is with 73 percent in all major networks. Everybody go ahead and calling him for Ron DeSantis. But leading by 15 points, Charlie Crist. I mean, barely winning the election by what? Less than 0.1% or something last time around

against Andrew Gillum. Very close. Stunning. This will be one of the major national stories coming out of this. No question. Marco Rubio, as you said, already getting declared the winner at 8 p.m., which is crazy. I mean, you know, to have Florida that's supposed for my entire lifetime, Florida, Ohio, these states were considered the major bellwethers.

Now, what is it? We're talking about Georgia. We're talking about Arizona. We're talking about the Midwest, places that should not be in play or never were. And, you know, in really the political environment, all of us came up. Well, the map has just really shifted. Completely. You know, I mean, now for Democrats, and Democrats have this great way of being like, oh, that's state Ohio.

We don't care about that state anymore. Let's go where the grass is a little greener. Yeah, I mean, that's a red state. Forget about that place. But, yeah, I mean, it's really shifted. Now they're focused more on, you know, the Sunbelt State, certainly Georgia. You know, North Carolina was a big hope for a while. Those hopes have faded a little bit. But certainly Arizona is new turf for Democrats in terms of, you know, it was not long ago where it was very difficult for Democrats to win in Arizona.

And now you have Mark Kelly there, you know, favored. It's far from over, but favored to win in the state. And obviously Biden won there last time around. So, I mean, this is the political realignment. They also got Colorado. Colorado used to not be a blue state either. I would say if I were Democratic strategist, I would not trade Ohio and Florida for Colorado. No offense to Colorado viewers. So we do, by the way, have our official flip of the night.

A Charlie Criss old seat, Florida 13th District. Anna Paulina, I think she used to work for Turning Point. I believe I've met her once or twice. Anyway, Anna Paulina Lena, she has officially flipped Florida 13. That is officially one gain for the Republicans in the House of Representatives. As a reminder, everybody, it's only 8.06. So it is really beginning to get started right now. I have a call for you. Go ahead. Democrats have flipped the Maryland governorship. Oh.

Wes Moore will be governor. I guess technically, but yeah. Maryland's first black governor. Yeah. I mean, this was one where, again, going back to the question, does Trump help or hurt? Republicans nominated an extreme candidate in Maryland. Maryland is a state that currently you know, currently has a Republican governor. So, you know, it is a blue state, but it's one that has a track record of being willing to vote for Republicans for governor. I don't know if Larry Hogan, the current governor, I don't know if he outright endorsed Westmore, but I do know he said he would not vote for the Republican nominee. So, you know, this turns a seat that, you know, maybe Republicans could have contested with a different candidate into one that was just a slam dunk for Westmoreland. Here's another fun game, which is by how much are DeSantis and Rubio

winning by? So Rubio right now is up about 12 points over Val Demings in Florida. The 538 average had him at 12 points leading. So that's interesting so to consider it was one of the first times well okay so maybe we can consider this in now red states maybe they are getting good at calling these although florida was pretty off in 2020 if we'll all recall by had biden up by three um trump ended up by two so that's this is these are the fun things also to look at is the margins the actual polling average, the day of. And it does look like both DeSantis and Rubio. DeSantis actually outperforming a little bit. His polls had him up by about 10.

He looks to be winning by almost 15. But Rubio dead on at 12 in Florida. That's a win, actually, for the polling industry, I think, so far. So we should celebrate some of the little wins before we get on the dunks. I do find it interesting, though. I mean, look, let's all let it sink in. Florida's a red state. That's crazy. We've also got a flip for governor of Massachusetts, which had been a Republican, again, a blue state where Republican was governor. Now you have Democrats flip that one as well.

Similar dynamic where you had an extremist candidate who was nominated by the Republicans and made this an easy win ultimately for the Democrats. So similar dynamic in Massachusetts as you ultimately had in Maryland. By the way, what did you think of that political strategy? Which one? I wouldn't call it that, where Democrats would prop up the more extremist Republican candidate because as a matter of principle, I think it's a messed up thing to do because you're rolling the dice with these people who you admit are like a threat to democracy and flat out authoritarian. But like in terms of the actual strategy of it, I mean, if it's effective, it's like, I kind of see where they're coming from. So it's effective with a very, very high consequence, right? So if Balduck wins tonight,

that's going to be a big, big screw up. Yeah, yeah. Was the Mastriano one of those propped up? Mastriano was. So that's why it's a mixed bag. It's one of those things where if it works, yeah, it's smart strategy. If it doesn't work and you end up with the ball duck literally in the United States Senate for six straight years, well, you have a serious problem. Well, and this is where it's tough too, because it seems that, and this is why Mastriano has been super hurt by the election denial issues. Governor, from an election denial perspective, matters way more than a senator because they point the secretary yeah so like that's the so that's kind of the key

differentiator there but look i think the problem of the thing that's i'm curious what the two of you think about this because this is this gets the difficulty of like the democratic party because kyle you're like democrats did it so like democratic like political operatives did it so like it's this weird coalitional politics where you have like so i don't think we have a big a big answer to this thing but it just seems like a bad idea because if you believe the election issue is as serious as you believe which i really do obviously if american democracy is at stake we could also believe that people would elect dan bodock therefore i would not like fuck around and find out that way yeah first f-bomb of the night, by the way.

I was wondering. And it wasn't me. Biden's final speech, right? After he'd already done the one with the red lighting that everybody freaked down about and whatever, and said they were, what did he say, semi-fascist? Yeah, semi-fascist. And then he did the final election pitch was like,

democracy is on the ballot. They did the January 6th hearings. I mean, if they believe their own rhetoric that the real dividing line is not even D or R or left or right, it's whether or not you believe in the basic tenets of democracy. Like if you actually believe that, how do you then go and like bolster a candidate like Don Bulldog or Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania? I mean, that's why I said as a matter of principle. Yeah. You shouldn't do it because like it shows like you're playing with fire. Exactly. But also in terms of strategy, you can't deny that they probably would have had way more

wins if it was the more moderate Republicans. You know, you made that point before. If it was Glenn Youngkin everywhere in the country, Democrats would be screwed. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. Second GOP flip of the night is in Florida seven. So Corey Mills winning there. So that's two net two right now in terms of seats.

I expect many more will be coming in. It's really interesting in order to consider the Florida results. Also, I'm curious. So get this. Val Demings raised seventy two million dollars in that race. Wow. Marco seventy two. I think we should let the audience let that sink in. Cummings raised $72 million in that race against Marco. 72.

I think we should let the audience let that sink in. I remember when Beto raised $20 million. And I was like, that's crazy. I can't even believe that he raised $20 million in a week. And he ended up against Ted Cruz. That was competitive. And that was competitive within two points. I mean, that was the national story.

We talked about it. Crystal, you and I talked about that ad nauseum. Beto and Ted, we could not even believe the amount of money that he had in the tank. And Val Demings now outpacing even some of those landmark campaigns of 2018 in terms of dollar fundraising. Very well fundraised, all of these candidates. And she loses the race at 8.01 p.m. Kind of stunning. There is a big story in this election about the amount of money. It will be overwhelmingly record-breaking sums spent on this midterm election. One thing that, you know, sort of the

Democratic hopium on Twitter that I saw was that Democratic candidates, especially at the grassroots level, they were wildly out fundraising their Republican counterpoints. And so they were saying, look, this is counterparts. So they're saying this is an indication the Democratic base is more enthusiastic. And so this is one indicator of that ultimately. But, you know, the amount of money that billionaires flooded into these races is really disturbing and really disgusting if, again, you actually really do care about, like, democracy and people having a voice and not just being controlled by a bunch of billionaires. So I actually have the specifics on that.

Yeah. Americans for Tax Fairness did a report, and they released it last week. New analysis finds that 465 billionaires had pumped $881 million into the 2022 federal midterm elections by October. That's 27 times more than they contributed before Citizens United was decided. So back in 2010, those billionaires only spent $32 million on the election. Again, now it's $881 million. Wow, that's fascinating. I mean, it's also funny, too, because you know that those set are much more influenced by the hopium of many of these polls, like the Val Demings and them. And it's just, to watch it all just get flushed down the

drain is just really stunning. Some interesting numbers here from Miami-Dade, just to reiterate. 2018, DeSantis won 39%. 2020, this was a big story that we covered. Trump at 43%. 2020, basically near almost 100% reporting. DeSantis at 53%. So a 10-point swing in the DeSantis direction away from Trump from 2020 to 2022, and a near 15% gain to an outright majority in Miami-Dade County for DeSantis there in just four years, which again, really is stunning. And there's quite a bit I'm seeing pumped out by Republican elites talking about the DeSantis victory. The margin of victory outlines how popular his platform is when compared to the Democrats. The Club for Growth, which is a major organization obviously battling right now with Trump. They went to bat with Trump over

Blake Masters. They went to, sorry, over J.D. Vance. There was a big fight there. If we'll all recall, whenever they endorsed Josh Mandel, wow, that's a name I haven't thought about in a long time. Thank God we don't have to talk about that one tonight. But anyway, it highlights that there is a major war right now for the quote unquote narrative amongst Republican elites, the idea of DeSantis 2024. Our respective opinions, regardless, like a lot of GOP elites right now are pushing very, very hard from what I can see. I mean, the idea of him running for president. My view of this is what I said on Breaking Points the other day, which is like this is like the more clever version of like the never Trump movement. It's like it is. They think, OK, well, we tried

going straight up against him. Didn't work with like people who would actually repudiate him and be critical of him and like, you know, call him names or whatever. Like that clearly failed. Liz Cheney, obviously not going to work out. This time, let's go with someone who's like trying to mimic him and trying to be just like him, except for, you know, maybe a little bit less crazy and not really directly criticize him. Maybe that will be the thing that will work. But ultimately, you still have a working class MAGA base that is deeply committed to Donald Trump. And they may be fine with Ron DeSantis. They may be OK with him. But this is disproportionately, it's not 100 percent, but it's disproportionately a sort of

like elite, highly educated, highly online phenomenon trying to make this guy a thing. Yeah, go ahead. Just to add to that, this is why I'm fascinated about how the two parties and their incentive systems are different. So the Democratic Party, this is why Hillary Clinton ultimately beats Bernie. This is why Joe Biden has a nominee. Like your average normally Democratic voters, like what's electability? Am I super excited by Joe Biden? No. Is Hillary passed her sell-by date? Probably, but like she's gonna win.

The Republican base is not voting for electability. Great point. And they've, ever since 2012, Mitt Romney was the last time the Republican Party picked their choice off of electability. And that's just the critical difference here. And it seems like the weird situation the DeSantis stans are in is they're basically trying to make an argument that you would make to the Democratic Party. Right. It's funny because like true.

Right now, the people who are still big time supporters of Donald Trump after everything we've seen, it is super cultish, way more cultish than any DeSantis stans on Twitter, in my opinion. I don't know. So in a sense, I don't agree with the analysis of like, oh, we still got this working class base. He's got like QAnon people at this point. Like, yeah, I get it.

30% of the country, admittedly. But like, that's not nearly as strong as it was in 2016. What percent of the Republican base thinks that the election was stolen? Right. It's an overwhelming majority. I understand that. But again, the idea, I don't buy this notion anymore,

like, oh, he's got this working class base, like, oh, the two times Obama voter who flipped to Trump because his job was outsourced. Those people are gone. Now it's people who are trying to figure out what QAnon is saying, and they're going to Trump's rally wearing a cowboy hat or some shit. Yeah, exactly, one 10 million more votes.

Okay, but there's a lot of things that have happened since then, right? I mean, like January 6th happened and he's gone full authoritarian and every other day he's on Truth Social saying, put me back in or let's redo the election. These things matter. Good thing that people aren't watching

because he's so struggling. Let's talk about this though because I don't think there's an equivalence between these two things, but a narrative you've kind of seen in the paper recently has been if you talk to a lot of Trump voters about the extremism January 6th argument, they'll say,

in a kind of whataboutist way, well, what about summer of 2020 and the riots? And actually, both the parties are extremist and bad. I just think we're in this weird area where it just kind of washed out. I agree with you, though. They say, oh, it was Antifa who did it. Oh, Antifa did it. Or actually, no, it was we did it, but it was based.

They go back and forth. But you're kind of making my point. It's like this weird contradictory cult that he has around him. I don't view them. I don't think it's like representative. Certainly not 51% of the country. Nowhere near that. So from what I, well, I'll remind you.

Again, we're talking about the Republican primary. You don't need 51 to win the Electoral College. I agree with you the most, but plurality. The other interesting one, actually, we haven't talked about this yet, which I found fascinating, ahead of congressional preference. Guys, number 15, please. This is the gender gap. This is something which actually bears a lot of discussion. And I believe that it will be borne out tonight, especially in those Miami-Dade numbers and elsewhere.

Let's just highlight here congressional preference for those who might just be listening. Men who are college educated or more had a D plus 16 preference in 2018. Today is R plus 10 with a 26 point shift over four years. That's insane. But then look at it with a no degree. So basically you continue to have a Republican preference, R plus eight in 2018, R plus 20 now, a 12-point shift. Here's the crazy one, though, with college-educated women. And Crystal, this gets to the suburban women discussion that we had previously. Dems bet the house that they could try and keep college-educated women. They have it there at D plus 34 in 2018, now D plus 38, only a four-point shift. And then finally, women with no college degree had a D plus three preference in 2018, a D plus one preference effectively tied today in 2022 with a two-point

shift in the Republican direction. So you effectively see massive swings or a tiny swing with women with no college degree. And the only ground that is made up there, Crystal, was women with a college degree and only by four points. So really fascinating from a gender perspective. I do think that one of the stories we might be talking about tomorrow is a huge gender divide. I think we may see a massive, because, you know, ultimately, you know, the country is sort of living in these separate media ecosystems, separate bubbles. They're experiencing this election in like totally different ways. The issues that they're concerned about, that they're voting on are completely separate. The way they're thinking about these issues.

I mean, it really is almost like the country's on two parallel tracks. And it does seem like, you know, the Roe versus Wade being overturned, the Dobbs decision, that also helped to set women in general and men in general on sort of a different track in terms of how they were viewing this election. And listen, I mean, it makes a lot of sense. If you're a woman, this feels a lot more direct, a lot more personal. You have like more just like directly at stake in terms of the decision. Of course, there's long been a widening gender divide with Democrats doing better with women in general and Republicans doing better with men in general. But I do think it will be probably particularly stark in this election.

Well, one quick thing, and this is like a policy endorsement, but it was a course correction the Republicans pulled off, like the abortion rhetoric. Blake Masters, June 2022, once it's clear how devastating the abortion decision was for Republicans in those Kansas referendums, deletes the, you know, national abortion ban from the website. So Republicans, and it's kind of interesting that the pro-life movement was this, and it shows how calculating this was, like the pro-life movement forgave Republicans really dialing back where they went, trying to turn the debate into like Democrats are the real extremists on abortion. So that was a that was a that could have gone a different direction.

I mean, it's kind of test case. It's honestly a sign of sort of political maturity in the pro-life movement, because ultimately they had they I mean, they have been building this machine for decades. They had their eyes on the prize. They knew this was going to be won or lost at the supreme court they created an entire infrastructure they made the like alliances of convenience with the billionaire class and the like radical libertarian economic people in order to make this thing happen they looked at donald Trump and they're like, this man stands for, used to give to like pro-life causes, used to literally give to Planned Parenthood. His personal life is a total catastrophe and a disaster. No one would be shocked if that man

has paid for one or multiple abortions himself. But they said, he gave us the list. He's going to put these nominees on the court. And so am I surprised that they look at Blake Masters, like scrubbing his website from his previous abortion language, and they're like, eh, what are you going to do? Ultimately, he's going to vote the way we want him to, and Mark Kelly's not. No, I'm not shocked by that. Pretty interesting.

I still, I think if they get the numbers, though, they're going to go for a national abortion ban. This is the test of the next year. People got pissed when Lindsey Graham introduced his ban. That's true. Yeah, so actually, we run in with some people who often update us on, what are the major pro-life folks saying? They were mad at Lindsay because Lindsay was only capping it at 15 weeks. They were like, no, no, no, no. They're

like, that's not what we're going for. Kyle. I mean, look, if they do, if they do that, well, I mean, I can just say, good luck. Crystal want to check in with you, your district, Spanberger? Yeah, what do we got? 50% of the votes in. Okay. We have Asili Vega at 55% and Spanberger at 45% with 120,000 votes, which have been cast so far. All right, so let me see. So a 10-point margin there. I got to see which counties are in. I've got it here.

So this district, the more you get to the north, the more Democratic it ultimately is. So it looks like you've got Orange County is partially in. That's a very Republican area. You've got Culpeper County, which is kind of mixed. You've got Prince William County partially in. That's a good area for Spanberger. That's about 28 percent in. It's still too early to say because you have some key areas out.

And, for example, my vote in King George County has yet to be counted yet. So we all know it's not over until we hear what I have to say at the ballot box. Got it. OK. The CIA ghoul versus the cop in my district, by the way. Go ahead. Can I give you guys some early voting numbers? And, Crystal, you and I were – we talked about this earlier today.

What's the name of the guy at the Democratic pollster? Stan Greenberg. Bonior. That guy, Bonior? Yeah. With TargetSmart. Yes, with TargetSmart. So he said in early voting, the Democratic advantage is 11%.

And in 2020, to put it in perspective, it was 7%. In 2018, it was 1%. So before any of the votes that were cast today, Democrats had already built up a 4.4 million vote lead. And that actually leads into another question I wanted to ask you guys. You were talking about the gender gap here. Do you think that there's going to be a giant age gap as well? Are we going to see young voters turn out for Democrats for one of the reasons being that, you know, Biden did the student loan debt reduction, which 90 percent of the people impacted make seventy five thousand dollars a year or less. Are we going to see basically like politically Biden, the Democrats

getting rewarded for what they did there? So the only indication that I've seen yet, and because remember, that detailed breakdown doesn't come until sometimes even weeks later, was John Ralston was looking at this in terms of Clark County in Nevada. He said, actually, that younger voters between 18 and 25 were not showing up at all. At one point, he only had like 1,000 votes even come in in that age group, which he said, this just shows you young people not showing up to vote. Again, that was Nevada. That was early vote. But that is the only actual demographic data that we have. Here's an interesting one. Washington Post exit polls from a couple of different states that they put together. New Hampshire, Georgia, and North Carolina. Little perceived differences

in the extremity of Republican and Democratic candidates, which gets to all of our questions around candidate quality. In Georgia, they actually verify more were saying that Warnock is extreme than actually Herschel Walker, given Walker's past position on abortion and obviously his own personal dalliances all being in the news. That just shows you a tremendous amount of political polarization, which we were talking about earlier. So to have little perceived differences, Kyle, this kind of gets to the Trump question we were talking about earlier as to, you know, all this stuff, which is that in a level of such partisan hatred of polarization, the other side is always just perceived as as is extreme. And I think that that Warnock number bears that out. I find it really interesting. So we do have some numbers very early out of Pennsylvania, five percent, and found this dude, Ryan Dito, who is a reporter for

Pittsburgh Paper. And he says, in terms of how you interpret these results coming out of Pennsylvania, very likely Fetterman will win vast majority of mail-ins. That's what's going to be counted first. Then Oz is going to appear to gain ground as in-person votes are counted. And then Fetterman will appear to gain some ground with late arriving mail-ins. So just in terms of how you're viewing these numbers as they're coming in, it's really important to keep those dynamics in mind, not just in Pennsylvania, but all over the map, because all of these states have different rules about how and when and where and what they count at what time. So just keep that really in mind as you're taking a look at all of this. So far, most of the votes have come in from places that are, you know, more favorable to Fetterman. You've got a lot of votes in from Philly. You've got a lot of votes in from Pittsburgh.

And it is also that, you know, early the mail in ballot so far. So very favorable results right now for Fetterman, but it's 5% in and it's mostly the mail-in vote. So you literally have him right now at 85%. I don't think it's going to end up being an 85% kind of a win. That's really good context there for the swing. So we could see a swing Fetterman, then Oz. Then back to Oz, then maybe back to Fetterman. I mean, that's just I just really want everybody to be patient and not like some kind of wild swings of these vote totals throughout the night. And why, frankly, like when you look at a lot of these states that we expect to end up being close, I mean, right now the Democrats are up in New Hampshire, they're up in North Carolina, they're up in Georgia, they're up in Pennsylvania, they're up in Ohio. But again, this is the probably in most, if not all of those places, the early mail-in vote,

which we expect to be overwhelmingly democratic. So I wouldn't read too much into any of that. And to your point, usually they'll count all of the ones from election day and then at the end, more mail-ins, like you said. So this is why they say, there was an article earlier today in ABC talking about there were three states in particular that they say a red mirage scenario could happen. But unfortunately, look, I think we're going to see people out there making all sorts of bad claims when they say, oh, why is the Democrat coming back now that it's two days later? And there's nothing nefarious about it. We're saying it beforehand, just like in the 2020 election, when I was on Joe Rogan's show with Tim Dillon, I was telling them up front, like, look, man, this is what's going to happen.

And Joe says now, like, the only reason he didn't end up going down a bad path with the election is because I was there to tell him beforehand what was going to happen. Wow, it's going to unfold. Look, I know no one will heed this, but can we please, please just make it so that we can count early votes like before the day of. Like so many of these state legislatures across the Midwest have made it so that you can't do that. I think personally because they like the chaos. But it does us all no good. It's so bad for us. It's a lot of Republican legislators that pass these rules.

And then they like complain about like, why is it so crazy? It's like, you literally made this rule. Like, go look in the mirror. This stuff drives me insane. Did you guys vote early? What's that? Did you guys vote early? I voted early in person.

I voted in person today, which is scandalous. Wow, on the actual day. You're legit here. I literally have one of the most least competitive districts in the country, so basically, I'm not. I mean, I'm not normally.

They redrew all the districts in Virginia. And so for the rest of my entire life in King George County, it has not been competitive, including the race that I personally ran in. Right. But now I'm in, you know, the Spanberger district. So it actually is one of the ones that everybody's watching. That is such an amazing. Like the fact that Biden's last campaign stop was Ashburn, Virginia. I just can't get over that. Like for context audience, he won, Biden won that district by 19 percentage

points in 2020. So to have to stop over there, you highlighted this. A, he's not that popular. So most people just don't really want him in their district. So he's terrible. He can't speak. I'm sorry. I celebrate some of the policy victories and like personnel choices, but he's he can't speak. He's a terrible campaigner. So they're sending him places where it's like, yeah, Joe, go down to Florida and see what you can do for Charlie. It's actually really sad, in my opinion, because you got to separate it out. Right. There's the politics and there's a policy. Yes. And on the politics front. Yeah. Biden's a zombie. Biden's half dead. Like, nobody would want him.

I mean, Obama goes out there. I think Obama's record, policy-wise, is worse than Biden's, but Obama gave a speech the other day. Yeah. And it was, I mean,

God, I covered it, and I was like, I forgot how good this guy was. Listen, from personal charisma, absolutely. We got J. Miles Coleman standing by. Oh, great.

So, control room, if you guys want to go ahead and bring him in, just give me a heads up whenever he's ready to go. You guys remember J. Miles Coleman. he's joined us a couple of times works over at larry sabato's crystal ball no relation no relation i'll steal your line can i tell you can i tell you a funny story yeah my mom right bless her heart right when i uh i stopped by her

house today and she was like i heard about you on the local news last night i was like oh god what happened she's like what'd you do now they were talking about you and this guy larry and their election predictions and i was like no no mom close larry sabato's crystal ball at the university of virginia so anyway my mother was wish casting that the local news was talking it's okay but breaking points audience they know what's going on uh miles can we go ahead and bring miles in guys you guys said he's ready hey uh miles let's go and put it up throw him up there on the screen welcome to the show it's good to see you can he hear us there he is yeah oh i'm not sure there he is we got you all right so miles um just in terms of the senate picture numbers are very early are Is there anything that tea leaves wise is standing out to

you that's giving you any sense of what directions Knight might go in? Sure. So one of the sort of early bellwethers I told people to look out for, if the Republicans could beat Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. Some polls had her in a close race. From what I'm seeing, she's overperforming Joe Biden's numbers in some areas. So she's looking pretty good. So, you know, it's probably not going to be, it could be a good Republican night,

but it's not going to be one where the whole damn breaks. Right, yeah. And then it's what i'm noticing in a state like georgia um as expected you have warnock who is overperforming stacy abrams by a few points uh we're just gonna have to see if it gets to the point where he can actually win that right and avoid a runoff that's interesting so yeah go ahead. You feel like in Georgia, you said the question for Warnock is whether he can win outright or go to a runoff. You think he's in that strong of a position right now vis-a-vis Walker that you think he'll end up with more votes on the night? You know, he could end up ahead of Walker, but he may still be under

50 percent. You know, one of my favorite ads was, uh, basically Warnock had this ad that, okay, well, uh, you know, I may be one of your Thanksgiving guests. If my race goes to a runoff in December, you'll be seeing more of my ads. So I want to avoid having him over for Thanksgiving. That's interesting. Another thing that is interesting to me about what you said in New Hampshire is I'm just looking at the presidential results because you said Maggie Hassan is outperforming Joe Biden. I mean, Joe Biden won New Hampshire easily. He won that state by more than seven points. The polls had Maggie Hassan. Some of them had her down. The mainstream polls mostly had her up by one, two points. I was very close. So if she's outperforming even Joe Biden's margin, I mean, that's a significant polling miss in a direction that we're not used to getting significant polling misses? Oh, yes. And, you know, just with the usual caveats that, you know, these results are incomplete. But, you know, one of the things you can keep sort of looking for in our election

returns is I think educational polarization or whether or not you have a college degree, I think is basically becoming as important as things like race or gender when it comes to how people vote. Well, guess what? New Hampshire is a relatively more college-educated state. So I can see Democrats holding up better in a state like that compared to one like Florida, where you have more of a working-class population, especially in a place like Florida, where you have a working class population, especially in a place like Miami, which is awful for the Democrats.

So just from election to election, you can always see some of these larger trends as at play. That's fascinating. We are very early in what we're getting in from Pennsylvania. I'm looking at Decision Desk HQ right now. They've got 5.34 percent in. My understanding is this is likely mail-in vote that they're counting in Pennsylvania first. Is there anything that you can read into those results? Because that's obviously maybe the race of the night to take a look at. Pennsylvania, I would avoid. No, I mean.

Okay. Fair. I mean, it really wasn't until really in 2020, it wasn't called for Joe Biden until the Friday or Saturday after the election. So I don't think we will have to wait that long. But the thing, every state is sort of different in terms of how it counts its votes. So just something to keep in mind. So I think in a state like Pennsylvania, they may just be counting all their mailing votes first. Yeah. Go ahead, Sok. Miles, what do you make of the college dynamic in Georgia that you were talking about? And how will that bear out whenever we're looking there, also in Arizona and some of

the other key bellwether states? Yeah. So it's, well, it's basically that same group of more college educated white voters who, you know, a lot of those voters used to be Republicans, but like Democrats a bit more now. So to me, the big question is, yes, I can see a lot of those going for Governor Kemp, but how many of them are going to stick with Warnock and how many of them are going to sort of hold their nose and sort of vote for Hershel Walker?

It looks like, again, these results are very early. You know, it looks like Warnock is at least matching what Joe Biden got in the Atlanta area. So it's going to be very close. OK, I got another one for you, Miles. How about North Carolina? We've got Sherry Beasley, who in some polls, you know, was running even. I saw a couple polls that had her up over Republican Ted Budd. Right now, you've got 54 percent in there and she has a sizable lead, 52 percent to 46 percent, roughly.

How do they count their ballots? Where are those votes coming from? What do you think of her performance there thus far? Sure. So, no, I mean, I think she's putting up a pretty decent performance. You know, something you have to keep in mind about North Carolina is they're sort of like Pennsylvania, like we were just talking about. North Carolina is a state that basically reports its early votes first. And as that Election Day batch comes in, stuff gets more Republican. In fact, that's what basically saved Donald Trump. Really, in 2020, Joe Biden won the early and mail-in vote, but Donald Trump got 65% of the election day vote, and that's what

sort of killed the Democrats there. So, you know, we'll see. I mean, what's really interesting is I'm looking at a county like this would be Wake, which has the capital Raleigh. You know, that used to be sort of a Mara Jan Jan O'County. Beasley's at over 70% there, and she's probably going to at least get over 60%. So we're really seeing this sort of urban versus rural trend in North Carolina. That's interesting. Miles, as the polls close around 9 o'clock and then further, what are some other things that people should keep in mind as some of the information comes in? I'm thinking of places like Wisconsin. I think a lot of eyes are going to be on the Midwest there, also in Arizona. And then even, you know, I heard some rumblings around

Washington and things like that. So any thoughts as we think even more further west of the country? Yeah, it's well, what you have to keep in mind is voting by mail, at least before 2020, has been more of a West Coast thing. So Arizona is going to take several days to count its ballots. So I would just tell people to be patient. OK. Yeah. That makes sense. One more for you before we let you go for now, Miles, is Ohio, you know, this was a big Democratic hope. This is a state that

has trended hard to the right. You know, there were some polls showing Joe Biden having a chance of winning Ohio in the final days of that campaign. That obviously didn't work out. I think Trump won the state by about eight points. In the final days, it seemed like J.D. Vance was really pulling away from Tim Ryan. We're again in a situation where it's very early. We've got only 19 percent in. Tim Ryan at 60 percent. J.D. Vance at 40 percent. How is Tim Ryan, or can you even tell at this point, running versus how Joe Biden ran in 2020? What I would say is it's actually looking a lot like what we had two years ago, because remember, early on election night, Biden was up about 10 points there. That's about where Tim Ryan is now. Only for those Election Day votes to come in and give it to Donald Trump.

So I can see, you know, I can see Vance pulling off. To me, the value for Tim Ryan may have been this is a state that at least he made it into a race. Republicans had to spend millions of dollars there just to shore up Ohio. Maybe those millions, had they run a better candidate, could have gone to a state like New Hampshire or North Carolina or Nevada or Georgia, basically a state that may be more decisive in terms of control of the Senate. Got it. Well, great points. We're going to check in with you possibly in another hour. Producers will be in touch. But man, so, so helpful. Super useful. And we always love having you on the show. All right. Thank you all. Thank you very much. So, New Hampshire.

Yeah. I mean, big takeaways from Miles is that the blowout has not yet appeared. It's possible, could materialize. But given his knowledge of exactly where the election was in 2020, things to look for. The fact that Maggie Hassan outperforming Biden. I might have to eat crow on this one. I really thought that that one might be one of the flips. It's not just that she's outperforming Biden. I might have to eat crow on this one. I really thought that that one might be one of the flips. It's not just that she's outperforming. Again, Biden won that state by more than seven points. It was not close. That's right. This was really coming down the stretch of jump ball in terms of what the polls were saying. So what that is reflecting is actually a miss on the polls. You're right. But underestimating the Democrats, which is something that we saw in a

couple of those special elections that got Democrats really, really super hopeful right after Roe versus Wade. So that is pretty stunning to me. How much of this is a function of like, you know, there's early voting in a lot of these states and the polls, the further back you go, the more favorable they are to Democrats. Correct. So how much of this can we attribute to that, do you think? In New Hampshire? Well, in New Hampshire. Anywhere where we're seeing Democrats kind of outperform.

New Hampshire in particular, you said they don't really do early voting. Yeah, they don't do early. They don't do it at all. Yeah, which was part of why. September polls peaked. It's like September. So like voting hadn't quite started. Yeah, but I mean, that was part of why Democrats were getting really nervous and Republicans were getting really hopeful about New Hampshire is exactly that dynamic you're talking about.

In a lot of other states, they were able to bank votes while their positioning was a bit more favorable than it seemed to erode down the stretch. But, you know, I mean, what Miles is saying there, and I think it's really important to have a lot of caveats in because as I try to say every like five minutes, each of these states counts votes differently. It's very hard to tell. Are these mail-in ballots? Are they day-of ballots? Like that could shift everything. That could really change the picture, et cetera. But he's saying in New Hampshire, in Georgia, and in North Carolina, at least, the Democratic candidates are actually outrunning Joe Biden. And in North Carolina, Joe Biden did not lose by all that much. I mean, that ended up being a very close race. So to be honest with you, I never really bought the polls that had the Democrat in striking distance in the state of North Carolina.

But at least where we sit right now with some 58% in, apparently she's really got a shot. That is, yeah. Look, it's very interesting. I don't know. I mean, my takeaway from Miles is kind of what I expected, which is that it's going to be complicated. I think he's going to be multifaceted. I was not expecting the quote unquote red tsunami. In terms of the New Hampshire vote, apparently it's still only 15%. And so I think that's also the question about early vote, about the mail-in ballots, about when exactly they are reported, the counting. I mean, it has turned into a bit of a nightmare. But New Hampshire is the one that must be, that should be the most clear because they don't really have early vote. So if he's saying she's

outpacing where Biden is, I mean, maybe one thing that could be going on is the places that are being counted right now are the college educated, more college educated parts of the state. But overall, as he points out, I mean, New Hampshire demographically in terms of college education is more favorable dem territory anyway. And so that's kind of consistent with what we saw in that upstate New York special election and a couple of the other special elections as well, where they happen to be in areas that had highly college educated, where you might have some college towns. There was a huge surge in turnout. And so it would kind of fit that you might have that same dynamic in the state of New Hampshire. So, I mean, look, this is the simple question. To what do you attribute this? Assuming it's real for a second, right? To what do you attribute it?

Let's wait, Kyle. We just don't know, man. I mean, it's like, I just feel like. I'm here for the speculation. Come on, let's speculate, Sagar. You have to take risks. What's your theory, bro? If it turns out to be Democrats win North Carolina, win New Hampshire easily.

No, not win North Carolina. Let's not get crazy. Okay. But let's say win. If they outperform what the polls are saying and they end up holding the Senate, which I think is the best that they could possibly hope for in this situation. Abortion. What's your theory? Abortion.

It's abortion. Yeah, it would be abortion. I think it would be the, I mean, look, I actually had this pulled up in order to pivot the discussion, but it would actually give us exactly right. 35% of the vote is in the state of Kentucky. Right now, the abortion amendment, which would state there is no right to an abortion or any requirement to fund abortion in the state constitution, is currently the no is leading at 56% in order to make sure that the— So, look, you have a Republican state where Rand Paul was literally declared the winner, where they are underwater by 15. Look, again, 35% of the votes that are in. I do think that if the Dems hold on to the Senate,

it will be 100% attributable to abortion. And Crystal, we will have to frankly say, hey, you know that $100 million or so that you spent on abortion on only? I guess it worked. Again, that is a big if. And I do think we should really hold it, especially with the West Coast. Given the fact that Arizona and Nevada are going to come in so late, some of our discussion just could reflect the East Coast bias. I do think those are really going to change.

And it could reflect the earlier. I mean, I do. Let's be clear. Like, no one is saying this is the reality that's happening. But if things continue to trend in this direction, I would say abortion is the pivot point But I would also say and this kind of ties into the can it candidate quality issue It's a general sense of GOP extremism with these specific candidates. Yeah, I mean first of all to your point saga about Kentucky Yeah, this is why I love direct democracy like the one of the data points that always stuck out in my mind was When Donald Trump won Florida in 2020 you also had a $15 minimum wage direct ballot initiative passed with 60% of the vote.

And to your point, Crystal, yeah, I mean, look, so you have a Republican Supreme Court overturning Roe versus Wade. And then another thing that stuck out to me after the fact, I don't know how many Americans know this, but it really stuck with me. You had a vote in the House on gay marriage. 157 Republicans voted against it. That's right. Yeah, we covered it here. 195 Republicans voted against a right to contraception. So they want, you know, a state like Mississippi or Alabama or whoever to be able to say, no, you can't buy condoms. You can't buy the pill. You can't buy plan B. So this is, I mean, look, and this is why I've always argued Democrats need to embrace freedom. They need to be the ones to actually, no, we are in favor of freedom. They are not in favor of freedom. Well, I've got a candidate who's been using that rhetoric and it seems like kind of a wash. Like,

this is Gavin Newsom's whole play. Is he spending a lot of money on ads in Florida? But I think that the broad thing this gets, I think this gets to why this political moment is frustrating because Republicans are being rewarded because they're out of power and our system punishes whoever's in the driver's seat. If Republicans do well, Democrats would do well in 2026 or 2028 and vice versa and vice versa. And if we're looking at previous eras of American politics,

you just won. Reagan just won. FDR just won. Kennedy, LBJ just won. And just the lack of anyone just to actually control it is the central issue here. So here's an interesting insight from Nate Cohn I was going to bring up that actually speaks to J. Miles Coleman's point. He says, quote, so far, Democrats are running ahead of expectations outside of Florida in places with a meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes, but they are running way behind in Florida, so it is almost entirely canceling out.

So the parathetical is worth taking seriously, which is that there isn't much that's unequivocally done outside of Florida right now. So early vote contamination could risk, remains very real in terms of the North Carolina results and all those things that were North Hampshire or New Hampshire, of course, accepted given their unique state there. Let me give you a couple of the specific numbers from New Hampshire. Um, because that's the one that's probably the most clean since they don't have a significant, uh, early vote, uh, in, I don't know any of these towns. I'm sorry. I'm probably going to butcher all of the names. Not a big New Hampshire stand. I mean, I have no problem with New Hampshire. I just don't

know the state that well. That's what I'm trying to say here. Okay. Brookline, Biden was plus seven. Maggie Hassan is plus nine. In new Ipswich. I love their names. That sounds delicious, by the way. I would love an Ipswich. Hey, live free or die. We all love Ipswich. Trump won by 36. Bulldog is actually outperforming Trump a bit, plus 40. In a sippy, Trump plus 21. Bulldog underperforming him a little bit, plus 19. In Somersworth, Biden plus 14.

Hassan plus 20. In Hillsborough, Trump plus 8. Bulldog underperforming him, so Bulldog plus three. Wow. In the state capital of Concord, which has 94% reporting, Hassan is at 67%, Bulldog is at 30.9%. So D plus 37 in a town that last time around was D plus 32. So it looks like a pretty consistent trend in

New Hampshire. I got one more for you here in this thread. This is from Ryan Matsumoto, who is a contributing analyst at Inside Elections, bylines at 538, et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, just want to give the guy credit. The town of Fitzwilliam, New Hampshire, is now 95 percent reporting. So very close to all in. Bolduc is narrowly ahead here, 49.1 percent to Hassan's 47.8 percent. That's R plus 1.3 in a town that was R1.2 in 2020. So Bolduc is not outperforming Trump, but Hassan seems to be outperforming Biden. And this was one of the other questions is like, you know, part of what we've seen in 2016, 2018 and 2020 is that Democrats are super enthusiastic. They, you know, push their margins up in their places, but it's matched by Republican enthusiasm

in rural counties, at least in New Hampshire, based on the numbers we have right now. You know, this looks very good for Maggie Hassan. And Democrats have to be encouraged that at the very least, they're not going to be facing the red tsunami that they were starting to really be afraid of at this point. Yes, so far and what we've seen. So we have a little bit more vote coming from Georgia that I can read off. We got about 48 percent of the vote in. So we're getting a bit of a better idea and it's tightening it up exactly as we expected. So we've got 2.1 million votes that are in right now. Warnock is currently at 50%, Herschel Walker at 48%. And exactly to the

point that you made, Crystal, only 1.7% of the vote right now going to the Libertarian. So we are talking at a margin here of really, we got 1,057,000 votes there for Raphael Warnock, 1,019,000 votes for Herschel Walsh. So it's a dead heat. I mean, it is close. And the closer and the more that we get to the full counting of all of the mail-in ballots and absentee and all that counted along with in-day, we are just going to see that it's, I think it's going to take a while in terms of that. Go ahead. Go ahead, Kyle. Yeah. Can I give you guys an Ohio update real fast? Yes. Yeah.

Go ahead. So we have 34% in and Ryan leads Vance by 10 points right now. Wow. But I will say this is effectively, this is like the blue mirage scenario in Ohio. That's how it works in Ohio, the way they count the votes. And so what you're going to see is as more votes come in, Vance is going to close that gap, close that gap, close that gap. And then the question is, will he overtake him?

And if so, by how much? Look, I think it goes to what Miles said, which is that Trump was down by 10, then the vote came in. Actually, if I recall from Ohio, Trump ended up beating expectations in a historic degree. There was, I forget exactly how to pronounce it. Is it Mahoning? Mahoning County? Mahone.

Mahone County. Sorry. Oh, no, Mahoning. You're right. Mahoning. All right, I forget exactly how to pronounce it. Is it Mahoning? Mahoning County? Mahone. Mahone County. Sorry. Oh, no, Mahoning. You're right, Mahoning. All right. I don't mean any disrespect. The point is, is that Trump won it in 2016, or sorry, didn't win it in 2016.

It was seen as a bellwether. He ended up winning it in 2020, which was seen as a big kind of, it was an affirmation of his candidacy because I think there was like some GM things that were going on there. My point being that that didn't come until later in the night. So that's something that we have to pay attention to.

In general, though, I guess I'm being this is just a stark reminder of like how long it can take on election night for some of this stuff to come in, especially given the dynamics of the way that people all vote now. We really don't have that many competitive states with all that much the vote in. So I'll just read it off. Pennsylvania is only at 9%. Fetterman is up by 75. So if you really want to cling to hope, stop the count, I guess, if you're a PHM. Ohio, you said only 35% of the vote in. Georgia right now is at 49. The real stunner, I guess, is North Carolina, Crystal. You've got Sherry Beasley up by at 50% to Ted Budd's 48%. And that's with about 60% of the vote, which is in. Now, again, you could have the EV vote, the election day vote. It just comes in massively at the end, and it's a total blowout. But it's a little bit closer there than I think a lot of other people

had anticipated. For the House of Representatives, just to keep everybody updated, I don't have the official number. But you do have a decent amount of flips, which have happened here so far. I guess the best one to go with is actually the New York Times needle, if everybody will remember this. Oh, I remember. The needle. The infamous needle. They took it away, right? No, no, no.

They brought it back. They took it away for a bit No, no, no. They brought it back. They brought it back, yeah. They took it away for a bit. I could have sworn they took it away for a bit. They did actually bring it back. So then they brought it here. Oh, no. Wow, the needle crashed.

That's actually kind of crazy. Oh, really? Okay. I was just looking at it. And it had- Stop the count. All right, two minutes ago, I looked at the needle. I took a little peek.

And it was in toss-up, but it was a little bit towards the Democrats. But it was still in toss-up. Oh, it was in Senate, right? Yeah, for the Senate. Oh, I was talking about the House. Oh, for the House. For the. And it was in toss-up, but it was a little bit towards the Democrats. But it was still in toss-up. Oh, you were saying in Senate, right? Yeah, for the Senate. Oh, I was talking about the House. Oh, for the House. It was like, it was lean Republican.

No. But it wasn't like, likely it was just over in lean Republican. Does 538 have a real-time updating thing like that? No, New York Times is the only one. They're the only one. Honestly, it is very useful, but it is also,

it crashes all the time. And of course, all the Dems freaking out from 2016 that were saying this. Nate Cohn, by the way, for those who are needle watchers, says, we need to pull the needle off. Louisiana appears to have been coded as Democratic at some point, adding an extra seat for them,

all other estimates, would be unaffected. Come on, man. You guys have one job. You can't screw that one up. This is why they took away the needle in the first place. Yeah. This is why we can't have nice things. That is conspiracy screw that one up. This is why they took away the needle in the first place. That's why we can't have nice things. That's conspiracy bait

right there. You turn Louisiana blue? Come on. I've got a few more New Hampshire notes for you. More positive indications for New Hampshire Democrats because it wasn't just the Senate race where they were concerned about. There were a number of congressional races they were also

concerned about. And it looks like Democrats at the House level also outperforming Biden in the state of New Hampshire. So you have Representative Pappas remains ahead in Rochester, which Trump carried. This is from Daniel Nishanian with 86 percent. And you have Representative Custer in Concord with 88 percent reporting, also running ahead of Biden. So in terms of the House seats there, that's also positive news for them. I was also looking at the sort of ticket splitting dynamic, and you've got a pretty, you know, pretty sizable gap both on the Kemp, the Kemp-Warnock voter voter. You got a lot of those. You also have a good number of Shapiro Oz voters as well, already in the early vote.

Now, again, in Pennsylvania, it's all mail-in. So it's like Shapiro has 83%, Fetterman has 78% or something crazy like that, which is obviously not going to be the end result. But it shows you even in that early mail-in vote that you do have a significant population of ticket splitters who could end up being determinative in these races yeah that's pretty interesting it is fascinating vote i mean they vote based on vibes yeah right isn't that really what it is i i listen

kyle i made peace with that a while ago and look to be honest i like it i'm gonna be honest i i kind of like it i i like being surprised i like the fact that people are not as into all of this as everybody and that the things that people vote on make them idiosyncratic and truly human. So I think that's actually a good story for America. It's a hopeful story. I mean, I think this was a discussion we were talking about earlier about how the electorate fundamentally changed in 2016. And, look, I mean, you can like or dislike how exactly things are trending. But what I like about that, Marshall, is like, it just shows that a lot of things are up for grabs in a way that people don't necessarily, as stuck as we are, to see Florida become a red state in my lifetime and to see Wisconsin be one of those places which we now have to watch as a bellwether.

Say, I mean, I remember Ohio as well. Barack Obama won the state of Ohio. Florida. Obama won Florida in 2008 by three points and he won it by two points in 2012. 10 years later, we're sitting here at the desk and we're marveling at a 15-point win for a Republican candidate. So it just shows me actually nothing is static. Everything can change and it may not change necessarily in the way that all of us necessarily want, but they can change and they can change significantly in a relatively short period of time yeah i'm not sure it's so interesting because your point is like the fact that things could change could be a good thing but yeah like i kind of said earlier i i want some i want i want someone to win a state they weren't expected to win and then actually be able to have a governing agenda oh well that's the name was on the key basically the pendulum swinging back and forth for 30 years because everyone's just pissed off

yeah that isn't that doesn't feel great i agree i agree marshall this is the you know there's another debate kyle and i've had like 83 times both publicly and privately but clearly the neoliberal consensus is dying, at least among the public. It's dead. Even as they, you know, hold on to Joe Biden as president, clearly they still hold on to power. But what you see in these swing elections is just a rejection of this paradigm, whether it's being offered by Democrats or being offered by Republicans. It's like, ah, to hell with to hell with this. We're going to try something different. And so I think until you have whatever the new paradigm, whatever the new era is actually born and like power consolidated, you're going to continue

having these swings. Although, I mean, listen, we have to say like if Democrats outperform tonight in the way that might be happening if New Hampshire isn't any indication of the rest of the country, which is a big if and caveats, et cetera, et cetera. We can't deny normally the party in power in modern history, they get shellacked in the midterms. And I think it is a remarkable indictment of the Republican Party that they managed to look like this should not be in question. You have 70 percent of the country saying the country is on the wrong track. You have inflation at very high levels. You have concerns about inflation and concerns about the economy at very high levels. You have a majority of Americans saying that gas prices are hurting them financially right now,

as we speak. It's like 60 some percent saying this is hurting me right now. You have a president whose approval rating is quite low. It's in like the low 40s right now. You look at those numbers. This outcome should not be in doubt. And so when I look at that, it's not listen, I'm going to have to give some credit to Democrats and their strategy was better than I thought if this ends up being good for them. But I really think it is a thorough indictment of the direction of the Republican Party, which, you know, really motivated people to turn out to the ballot box in a way that they normally don't in the midterm election to protect the party in power. It is actually fascinating to see them. Go ahead. Yeah, I want to I want to switch to policy for a second because we've talked about these previous midterm elections. We referenced the 1990s.

Bill Clinton gets the first big modern shellacking. And then two years later, the era of big government is over. There's this big correction. 2010, another shellacking. Obama's ambition just goes away and the presidency goes into defense. That helps you win re-election, but the hope and change dream is over.

What do you guys see as the, not what you want, but what takeaway do you think the Biden people are gonna take from, let's say, this moderate tsunami we're talking about? Yeah, so- Culture first. First of all, I love that question because it's transitioning right into the thing

I wanted to bring up, which was, let's say the dynamic we're talking about now holds the rest of the night and the Democrats do better than expected. I mean, I really think it just, it proves that if you materially deliver for the American people to any degree, even if it's just a little bit, they're like, oh, thank God. Okay. I'll reward you. So let me make the case real quick. And I know this is an unpopular case. I agree that on politics, Biden is a zombie. He's half dead.

Not good. But on policy, he's way better than I thought he would be. My, I mean, I had nonexistent hopes when Biden's approval rating was 33% and he was doing nothing. I was like, this is what it's going to be like the rest of his time in office, and I'm going crazy over here. Then what do we get? Biden comes out and pardons weed offenders. He pulls the troops out of Afghanistan. He does an executive order that raised the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, which impacts 300,000 workers who are federal

contractors and federal employees. He has a pro-union NLRB, which has allowed this wave of unionization now to sweep the country. He's appointed anti-monopolist Lina Khan to the FTC. She's currently blocking mergers. He does the CHIPS Act, which onshore is 350,000 jobs. He does the PACT Act, which is healthcare for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. He does gun reform, bipartisan gun reform, which includes money for red flag laws, money for school security, money for mental health treatment. He killed Zawahiri, the head of Al-Qaeda. Inflation is a big problem, but also at the same time, we do currently have low unemployment. Kataji Brown-Jackson is on the Supreme Court. And then probably most importantly,

you have the IRA, which lowered prescription drug costs for seniors. It has a Made in America provision for clean energy technology. There's a 15% corporate minimum tax rate, a 1% tax on stock buybacks. Obamacare expansion now covers 3 million more people. And I mean, look, I only gave you like maybe half the list here. I can go on. But the fact of the matter is, I do think that people, when they get materially helped, they go, okay, good. Now that's all I want from you. So now I will reward you. I will go vote for your party. Joe Biden should hire you, Kyle. That's one of the most eloquent defenses I've heard of his presidency yet. Look, there's another interesting takeaway here that I want people, because I always

get really annoyed when people talk about, oh, like the problem for politics is there's just like a bunch of old people. And, you know, we need fewer incumbents. Joe Biden on paper should not have done anything you just articulated. You would look at Barack Obama. I don't think Pete Buttigieg would have done any of these things either. If you talk to, I can't remember what he would have done.

I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done.

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I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done.

I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. I can't remember what he would have done. What was his name? The guy from North Carolina who lost his... Oh, Madison Cawthorn. Madison Cawthorn struck 25 years old. So I think the hopeful... Or maybe they were like Pete Buttigieg

is the one I always think of, like, God fucking forbid. There's just something hopeful. I think that's the thing which is hopeful there, which is that individuals matter more than you kind of would think. And I think there's something there. I don't know what I think on this question,

but the other theory would be actually that it doesn't have so much to do with Biden as it does with the sort of like shifting of the era. Because if you look at Joe Biden over the course of his career, you would not think this would be his presidency. He just goes with the winds. Right. I mean, he goes with the winds. That is what he has always done is he centered himself in the middle of the Democratic Party, tried to center himself in the middle of the electorate and then done the thing that he thinks that, you know, that entails with a like basket of cliches and euphemisms or whatever from his family times that he's had a he has in certain things. He has consequentially shifted the direction of the country and economics in particular. I mean, the NLRB and the anti-trade stuff in I mean, not anti-trade, the antitrust stuff in particular and and has a trade policy that is not unlike Trump's trade

policy to be perfectly honest with you it's very on par so um so you know to me there's a question okay is that Biden and he actually connects to an older area he's more of the new dealer he's bringing some of that into his presidency and sort of like digging it up in the depths and his experience his age is actually a benefit or is it that he is reflecting that we're in a different moment in America and that's where some of these policy shifts ultimately come from? Honestly, I'm sort of like on the fence about which one of those things are,

but I think it could be, I think it could ultimately be either one. Let me say, they won't learn the things that you just said, though. Even if that's true, what they're going to think is abortion and January 6th work. So that, you know, I mean, they're closing counterpoint. Let me just finish. Their closing pitch was chopping at the bit. Their closing pitch was democracy's on the ballot.

January 6th election deniers. And you know what? They're not wrong because when you do look at these races, like part of why Maggie Hassan appears to be cleaning up here is because Don Bulldog is this like psycho election denier, right? Part of the reason why you have Democrats, the base of the Democratic Party, so energized to go out and vote and protect Democratic power is because they truly do fear that there is like a democracy ending potential event if they don't go and do that. And that's why you do have these midterm elections with much higher enthusiasm for the party in power than you normally do. So, you know, I don't think that they're wrong to look at some of how they went all in on January. So I went all in on extremism, closed with democracy on the ballot, given that Republicans were elevating so many election deniers.

So, I mean, I mostly agree with what you said. The only counterpoint I would make is if, for example, we get the numbers on this election and we see that there was a giant surge in young people showing up to vote. Yeah, I would say, you know what? Maybe this has something to do with the student loan debt reduction and maybe this has to do with like weed pardons, for example. So that's substantive. And then the second point is, even if I grant you the point you made, I do think that, you know, running on the abortion stuff, even though I don't think it should be the whole picture of what they ran on, it is substantive because it's fundamentally an argument for, no, we want to be the freedom

people. If we're, if we're now de-scheduling weed, that means we want to increase your social freedoms. We're the pro-choice party. We want to increase your social freedoms. And again, this is an argument I'd love to see them embrace wholeheartedly because my politics, you can boil it down to, I believe in economic patriotism

and freedom on the social front, social freedom. And so I think those two things together are, I mean, they're a winner. Could be an interesting thing. Okay. So it is 9 p.m. or it's 9.09 specifically. So let me lead off everything that has now closed. Arizona, 9 p.m. Eastern Standard Time are officially closed. It's about to get fun here, people. Colorado, officially closed. Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, which, by the way, we have to watch because that was also predicted as possibly closer than people thought, especially with Lee Zeldin and Kathy Hochul. North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. So, Georgia. We know New York isn't going to count their votes for like in like two months from now.

They'll get around to it. Post-election day, they'll tell us. Don't hold your breath on that one, guys. Post-inauguration day, they will eventually inform us about it on the election day. 58% of the vote now currently in Georgia. So Warnock currently at 51%,

Hershel Walker at 47, but there was a big dump from a major Democratic area there. In terms of the other ones that we should pay attention to, Pennsylvania, John Fetterman sitting up there, but only 13% of the vote. New Hampshire holding steady at 16. Ohio is at 41. Things are much tighter now.

It's at 51 and 49 for J.D. Blue Mirage there, man. Very, very interesting. That's true. But there is an interesting, again, ticket-splitting dynamic in Ohio. A third of the Ohio vote in. Huge gap of more than 20 percentage points between the margin in the governor's race and the margin in the Senate race. Wow.

So you have a lot of people who are voting for DeWine. The Republican has already been declared victorious in Ohio for the governor's race and then are voting for Tim Ryan. Let's talk about Tim Ryan. We haven't talked about Tim Ryan at all. Tim Ryan thoughts. Oh, I think he ran a phenomenal campaign. And I'm really not a big fan of Tim Ryan. I mean, I remember back when he ran for president.

Yoga Tim Ryan. Meditation Tim Ryan. Remember when he was like— He viciously went after Bernie. He was like, we don't have to yell about it or whatever. He was wearing shirts that said stop yelling or whatever. Oh, that's right. It was so cringeworthy. You don't have to yell about it or whatever? Stop yelling. There were so many shirts that said stop yelling or whatever. Oh, that's right. It was so cringeworthy.

You don't have to yell about it. He signed on to the list on the Medicare for All caucus, so he endorsed support for the Medicare for All bill in the House. And then when he was interviewed later on and asked, do you support Medicare for All, he was like, no, I hate that policy. And so I have big, big issues with Tim Ryan. But in terms of politics, I think he's run a phenomenal campaign. I think he's been really aggressive, which is something that we don't often see from Democrats. I think he's kind of correctly portrayed J.D. Vance as an extremist and a Trump ass kisser. Quite literally, I think he said those words on stage.

Trump said that about J.D. Vance. And then Tim Ryan brought it up and was like, hey, remember when he said that thing? So, yeah, I just thought he ran a good campaign. We'll see. I don't know. And that is the question is like, I mean, clearly Tim Ryan did some things right because he's outperforming the other dude. Yeah. I don't even know who this running for.

Yeah. I think it is a woman running for governor for the Nan Whaley. Is that who it is? Rocking misgender anyone here. Yeah. I'm canceled. Anyway, so he definitely did some things right to be outperforming the other democracies sharing a ticket with statewide. And then the question is, how much of it is like what did Tim Ryan do right and how much of it is what did J.D. Vance do wrong?

What is it the voters didn't like about him, his platform? Did they view him as extreme? Did they view him as out of touch? Did they view him as like, yeah, I mean, it is it does have this sort of gross feel that you were the guy that was like the principled critic of Trump. And then all of a sudden you're like, I love you and please endorse me and basically owes his totally owes his victory in the Republican primary to securing the Trump endorsement. So, you know, I don't know the answer to that question, but it certainly has to be like a little bit of both there. Well, to add to your point, Chris, when it kind of gets into the weird dynamic, it seems like Tim Ryan,

because of the way JD's had to kind of shift his position around, Tim Ryan kind of ran, and you almost would think that JD's the incumbent right now. That's how aggressive Tim Ryan's being. And I think there's probably a lesson there. This is, I think, your point on aggression

and how that would make a difference. It might help, though, because Ohio is such a red state, you should treat it as incumbency. So it makes it a little bit more up there. So some interesting call-outs. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, press secretary, officially Arkansas's governor. I told you I was excited about this arkansas result chuck schumer has now won his fifth term to become the new york longest senator in the history of the state of new york he's only he's a young man he's only 73 so i predict that is not the last election that we will see him by the way chicken in the democratic uh north carolina what we were all taking a look

at ted budd has actually now gone ahead and pulled ahead in the race there. It's still close. So it's 50 and 59. Again, we all fell for the blue mirage. It's a joke. Sixty eight percent of the vote coming in there now and things starting to trend a little bit more in that direction. Georgia, I'm keeping an eye on it. And no surprise. It gives me great pleasure to say all this. Immediately after the polls closed, Fox News went ahead and called the race for Greg Abbott over Beto O'Rourke. It's amazing to consider him four years later, right? 2018 was his big moment. He raised more money than God. I remember rocking around.

Marshall, that's when we were living in Adams Morgan. And I remember seeing Beto stickers everywhere. He was raising so much money. Anytime I visited Texas at that time, if you landed in Austin, you'd see Beto t-shirts. He was irrelevant in the year 2022. And it's a real fall from grace for him, for Stacey Abrams as well. Like many of the 2018 stars did not pan out at all.

Built huge campaigns and fundraising dollars on the backs of that. And look, I mean, it's a huge failure for the quote unquote, like the stars of 2018. And look, I mean, it's a huge failure for the quote-unquote, like, the stars of 2018 who didn't actually win. Well, it's a couple. Yeah, it's kind of, it's funny. I live in Austin now, obviously,

so I've been thinking, there's a very little Beto energy. Interesting, and it was so much in 2018. There's just very little Beto energy, like very, I mean, there are signs, but it definitely doesn't feel like the environment. But two, there's a broad lens, and I think Beto was worse on this than Stacey Abrams was the transition he made from I'm a Texas guy to running nationally. There was no reason

for him to say, I'm coming for your AR-15. And I'm talking about that. We're not talking policy, like that literal phrasing pointing to the camera and saying, I'm doing it., we're not talking policy, like that literal phrasing, pointing to the camera and saying, I'm doing it, okay, it's over. So if you're going to be successful, hey, the second thing to be aware of is, God, people really don't like Ted Cruz. So candidate choice really matters, but just this is, we're debating like,

how much of this is local and national? This shows that there are cases where you can be a Texas Democrat. You can be a Georgia Democrat, but you have to, you can't be thinking of the president. Yeah, you've got to pick one. You've got to pick. The other thing is, I think people really got the sense, he was so forced on us by the media. Remember when he was on all those magazine covers?

Born to be in it. I was just born to be in it, man. Standing on every table he could stand on for no reason whatsoever. He did the Times Square Oprah interview. And then he started talking and people were like, oh, this is what all the hype's about? Like, this is crazy. And to your point, yeah, if you're going to run for governor of Texas, how the fuck are you going to say, yeah, I'm coming to take your guns? Yeah.

Any other phrasing. I actually cannot think of a good phrase. Bro, it is Texas. That's the one thing you cannot say in Texas. And he did it. And so, yeah, I mean, I'm not surprised. He was forced on us by the media. And I actually kind of like the fact that Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke, overall, their national profile has just absolutely tanked. Because again, this was the media trying to send up the heir apparent to the like, OK, well, we'll give you Hillary. And then, OK, maybe Biden at the last minute, we'll give you. OK. Now they're going to try to do Mayor Pete,

of course, and Conor Harris. But like the fact that so many of them have failed spectacularly leaves me hope that there's still room for like a candidate Obama back in 2007, 2008, who kind of came out of nowhere and just captured the imagination. Like, why couldn't Warnock do that in a presidential race for the Democrats? You know what I mean? Yeah, I mean, I think Kamala is another one that I would put on the list of failing spectacularly, right? Oh, I agree with that, sure. She might be vice president. But they're going to still try to force her.

They might try to force her because they don't feel like they can get past the, like, first black woman vice president. We kind of, you know, have to go there next. But she's obviously already failed spectacularly in terms of how the public feels about her. So, yeah, I mean, the whole theory of the Democratic Party is like, OK, let's just let's find the next Obama. Let's find someone who's, you know, sort of like parrots his way of talking and his speech patterns. And let's just like put them out as this is the next one here. Congratulations to all of all of you. We have bestowed Beto and Pete and Kamala and Stacey Abrams upon you. And, you know,

it's no accident then that all of these media creations who really didn't have a lot of any like vision or substance or like charisma of their own to back it up, that they ultimately sort of fizzle out. So it's and it's a different thing for the Democratic base that was very excited about Stacey Abrams in Georgia last time around, very excited about Beto O'Rourke. But they also didn't really have a chance to sort of examine them at that point. You know, it was like they were excited about the dream of winning in Texas. The other thing I would say about that is, you know, I think the Democratic, like, Texas hopium has also significantly cooled and dimmed dramatically because of the shift in Latino voters to

Republicans. So, you know, the dream there always was, you'd say, look at all these Latino voters, and if we can get them to turn out and we just need to register and vote and get them to the polling places and they'll vote for Democrats. And now it's like, will they vote for Democrats? No longer clear. And in the Rio Grande Valley, as we have talked about, many others have talked about as well, huge shifts to the right. So that has kind of killed, that's put a real damper on the democratic dreams in Texas for the moment. Well, that's one of the things that it's also killed because the real, the way this, you know, Latinos, like black men specifically going more for Republicans from 2016 to 2020 was talked about, this is just like Trump. If you were to build a guy in a lab who could do better for minorities than, let's say, Mitt Romney, it really would be Donald Trump.

The fact that Republicans are able to pull that off when Trump is not on the ballot, that's really the dream. That's very true. Because the copium was, OK, let's get real. It's Trump. No that's really the dream. Because the hope, the copium was, okay, let's get real. It's Trump. No one's shocked at that. But when generic Texas, like boomer Republicans pulling that off. Like Myra Flores, like whenever she won in her race. And actually, I mean, I expect some of that data to come out of Texas. I'll be watching that very closely. So a little bit of an update. Vance has actually pulled ahead in the state of Ohio at 50.3% of the vote to Tim Ryan's 49.7% as we get more and more. And North Carolina, similarly, Ted Budd continued to maintaining the hold, although still only at 49.4% and 48.6%.

That's when 69% of the vote came in. So I think a lot of the red votes are beginning to come in. So I've got a John Ralston update out of Nevada. The sage of Nevada. So this is the guy. Yeah, he is very well known. He has a great track record in Nevada in terms of predicting what the outcome is going to be. He watches the early vote. Nevada has long had a sizable like early mail in vote. So he looks at, OK, what's the partisan breakdown? How much Republicanasto, the Democrat, would hold on and win and that the Republican would win for governor. Then he started to see the votes come on on Election Day and was like, oh, I might need to really take that one back. So where we are now is he says, I've just confirmed that whatever mail has been dropped off today is not going to be tabulated tonight in Clark County. That's where Las Vegas is.

Overwhelming bulk of the population is. Like the whole ballgame is Clark County in Nevada. It may take until Thursday. Oh, no. What will be tallied tonight are Election Day in person and all the early mail votes already in the system, save for provisional ballots. So, he says, it is very likely the top of the ticket Republicans will be ahead after tonight with thousands of mail ballots still uncounted. Will they try to declare victory even though the races may not be over?

What do you think? Oh, my God. If it was Carrie Lake, we know what would happen. We know what would happen. But we don't know in Nevada. Laxalt is a little bit. He's not. He's more of an establishment guy, like moved to the state a couple years ago.

He's more of like a rich guy Republican. So I'm not so sure that that would happen. I don't know anything about the gubernatorial, Republican gubernatorial nominee in the state. So anyway, just a heads up that that one. That's going to flip, man, and that's going to feed a whole bunch of. We will probably not know tonight. And I mean, maybe it'll be clear. Maybe it'll be Republicans are up by a whole lot and it's basically over didn't he predict democrats that cortez masto was gonna hold onto receipt

yes okay his initial projection now he's pulling it away a little bit yeah right okay understood but let's say there's a tiny lead for republicans and you still have all these uncounted clark county yeah that's gonna flip to the democrats and that's you're gonna have like 17 denish de souza documentaries coming out yes well facts thatacts. That's fun. It's fun to live in America, isn't it? But I mean, I know. Ten trillion meals. Ten trillion. You wouldn't name it that, would you?

That's a good one. No, I mean, I do think it's worth saying that other countries do manage to count their ballots, even with early vote, mail-in ballots and whatever on election day. Brazil, remember that yes brazil we knew who won like right away and we're talking about you know like people voting in far-flung places a big country whatever i have a love so yeah i i just you know we should we should get our act together a little better on this there's no reason you have to wait till freaking thursday to count these ballots guys come this is a good one for the panel guys i have a

love-hate relationship with federalism. In some things, I love it. But on election, and look, I get it, everybody, why it isn't designed this way, but it's a pain in the ass. I also talk about this with Republicans. Marshall's actually the one. I remember I was at your house when you guys were all voting, and everybody in Oregon votes by mail. It's awesome.

It's actually, they have much higher turnout. It's actually a lot easier. I understand drop boxes, all that stuff. Oregon and Washington seem to have figured it out. They have much higher turnout it's actually a lot easier i understand drop drop boxes all this stuff oregon and washington like seem to have figured it out they have way higher voter participation it seems like everybody in the state likes it and i'm not even saying necessarily voting by mail but i was thinking about it today and i'm like if i can log into my bank account with a text message and i'm like why is this so antiquated like so many other functions of our lives like don't and have modernized in a sense where voting just seems to be a shit show every single time that we cover it. And you're now, Crystal, you were some of those things like it seems to have gotten where it does seem to be ever present.

Like, you know, with 2000, even 2004, if I recall, I remember going to bed on 2004 election night and people saying, well, we're not going to know Ohio for a couple of days. And I don't think John Kerry conceded until the day after. So anyway, I mean, it's funny because so I voted in Austin on Friday. That's my first I've always just done drop off like mail ballots. Right. I waited like an hour in line. And I was I was early. Basically, the answer is I actually cannot talk of Republicans about this issue because Oregon has been vote-by-mail forever. I'm sort of like, this is crazy. But I don't know, it's kind of, I don't know, it's just sort of like, I think it should be

pretty straightforward to vote. I just think it should be easier to vote. And I agree, it should be centralized. It should be federalized. I know it's not going to fly, but I mean, if you're designing a system from scratch, obviously you're going to have the same rules everywhere. You're not going to be like, well, in this state, we count using donkeys.

That is also why. I do want to say that some of the GOP talking points on this stuff drive me insane. It's a storied tradition. Donkey ballot count. Right. How dare you take that away from me? Get back to the GOP legislatures. They're the ones who pass laws saying you can't count early vote until election day.

Yeah. Like, why? Why? We do not need this shit. Let me play devil's advocate. Don't do that. I don't even know that I agree with this position, but somebody's got to take it. Okay.

So if you did have the federal government basically overseeing the entire election infrastructure, it strikes me as likely that that would feed more conspiracy theories. It definitely would. You're right. No, you're right. But Kyle, I think Kyle, not just speak for you, but I think you put it accurately, like normalized standards. So like maybe it's that like you have eight days early voting or this is that. But I think there'd be, I guess the philosophical question, like I think people should think about is

is our election system not responsive enough or should it be more responsive? I think we should have more people voting. I think that's a good thing. One of my favorite things, the Knight Foundation has talked about it a million times, so forgive me, everybody, is the 100 Million American Project

where they talk about the 100 million Americans. Is the computer okay? It's fine. It's a Microsoft Surface. It's not water. It's different than water. He's just trying to pull liquid death over there. Anyway, one of my favorite studies, the 100 million Americans project, which talks about the 100 million Americans who don't vote. And the vast majority, Glenn Greenwald actually was tweeting about it. Today, the vast majority of people who don't vote are working class, are people of color, and most of them just think that their vote doesn't matter at all. It's sometimes, because people will ask, is it too hard to vote?

And they're like, no, I could if I wanted to. I just don't care. And that is something where, look, we seem to have very high turnout today. I think that's great. But if you peg it to our historical standards, it still seems to be incredibly low. Even in 2020, we used to have much higher voter participation in this country. Yes, I know not everybody could vote and all that. But if you look in other developing and Western countries, even put aside the whole, it should be a national holiday, et cetera, discourse, people there just seem to care a lot more. I do think that's

something that, I don't even know if that's a federal problem that can but you know i mean trump has driven up turnout no he certainly has done and it hasn't been good for the country so i mean i would like turnout to be up but for less horrific reasons i'll take more turn if anything was going i actually understand yeah voting being mandatory even more than I understand jury duty being mandatory. So you're going to make anything mandatory? I'm so against that. By the way, I'm not saying I'm for mandatory voting. I'm saying if there is anything that you can make a good argument,

that should be mandatory. It would be that over jury duty or anything else. All right, I've got a Georgia update. Hit us. Okay. I'm pretty surprised by this one. At this point, with more than half of Georgia ballots counted, this is per Greg Blustein, who we've had on Rising and on Breaking Points as well, Republican Governor Kemp and Democratic

Senator Raphael Warnock have almost an equal number of votes. Wow. Whoa. Warnock and Kemp, equal number of votes. That is astonishing. I mean, they're off by, I mean, it's very, very little that there's a difference here. Herschel Walker's underperforming Stacey Abrams. Correct.

Whoa. Actually, Herschel Walker right now, and this is because in the Senate race, there is a Libertarian candidate who's garnering about two points of the vote right now. So Herschel Walker actually has fewer votes than stacy abrams that is crazy wow that it really does show i mean look this again could be the canon quality at the same time it's only 56 percent what what's the rule about georgia no brian kemp is gonna win no i i agree so if you've got warnock running equal with him this is looking to me like the question isn't who comes out on top. It's whether he avoids a runoff or not. Great point. I have a call. Oh, go ahead. I have a call. Hit us with a call. J.B. Pritzker. Oh, big boy. Big boy Pritzker. Has been reelected

as Illinois governor. Well, I mean, this is somebody who certainly thinks of himself as a potential presidential candidate in the future. This is someone who, similar to, certainly thinks of himself as a potential presidential candidate in the future. This is someone who, similar to Gavin Newsom, although not quite as overt and shameless, has made some moves to try to position himself in the eventuality if Biden doesn't run. I think he would be one who would run. He also happens to be a billionaire. So, you know, that never hurts in terms of our political system. And it's system. Michael Bloomberg, I think it's probably not a good way. He's a little bit of a billionaire. He would not have been on the debate stage.

I think being a billionaire probably hurts you as a presidential candidate. I think it causes an insularity and just, like, the things that happen to you if you're a billionaire that I know obviously, I think it's bad. I think you want to be like in the hundred million. Okay.

All right. There's a sweet spot. You got to be Ron Johnson territory. That's a cool spot. He's getting reelected tonight. The funny thing about Pritzker is like there was a moment in online discourse where progressives and lefties got like super excited about this guy. And there's like a whole thing. And it was really because

he just like ran on a couple things and then actually did them when he became governor and the bar was so low that they were like, oh my God, we love this guy. He's amazing. By the way, one more call.

Jared Polis has been reelected governor of Colorado. Governor of Colorado. Wow. Another guy positioning himself. Actually, you know, that is an important point because in the red tsunami scenario, they actually thought that Polis was possibly. Was vulnerable. himself that is an important point because in the red tsunami scenario they actually thought that polis was possibly was vulnerable so that is an important

that is an important data point to shout out for everyone also michael bennett there with 38 percent um is at 38 reporting is up by 60 to 40 which is pretty remarkable um for what we have there wow you know i mean i'm pretty stunned by those numbers, the Georgia numbers, because we've got two-thirds of the vote in from Georgia now so far. I am very surprised that Warnock and Kemp are running even. I think you're right.

I think that's a big takeaway. I did not see that coming. And that, again, I mean, that seems like, again, polls underestimating the Democrats a little bit in the state of Georgia. So, all right, we'll keep an eye on it. In the meantime, we've got our great friend J. Miles Coleman is back to tell us what he is

making of these numbers. Great to see you again. We missed you. So we were just talking about Georgia. Greg Blustein, who's with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, just tweeted out that Warnock and Kemp are running even in terms of the number of votes they are getting, which is something that really surprised us. I mean, how is Georgia looking to you at this point? Well, someone who I also think had a really, really good tweet is Nate Cohen at the New York Times. He's like, well, other than Florida, it seems like it's a decent night for Democrats. And one county I'm really looking at in Georgia is called Clayton County, really south of Atlanta, majority black.

In the 2021 runoffs, I think Warnock got about 89% of the vote there. He's at 88. So, I mean, Warnock is definitely holding up very well. So it's going to be an interesting kind of ticket split that we're seeing in Georgia in favor of Warnock and Kemp, which is quite interesting. Yeah, lots of ticket splitting going on. What are some of the things that you're taking a look at, Miles? Give us some of your insights, some of the big things flashing across your radar that you think the audience should know. Sure. So earlier we were talking about how, you know, sometimes you have to be

a little patient when looking for some, when waiting for some of these results to come in. You know, last we talked, Tim Ryan was up in Ohio. Looks like J.D. Vance has taken the lead there very slightly. One thing in the House that sort of caught my attention is a lot of Republicans were very excited about picking up a seat in Rhode Island. They had a good candidate in Alan Fong. Fong, it looks like he lost that seat in Rhode Island. So overall, it looks like, you know, it may not be as much of a red wave as, you know, maybe red rain, red rain, as Peter Gabriel said. Yeah, I've got another one here, which is CNN at least has projected that Jennifer Wexton is going to hold her seat in Virginia's 10th congressional district. Now, of the districts

that were vulnerable in Virginia, of the Democratic districts that were vulnerable in Virginia, I think this is the one where Biden had the largest margin, correct me if I'm wrong, but the worry was if we really were in like a red tsunami kind of a year, even a Jennifer Wexton could end up losing her seat. Sure. That's something you saw within the last few weeks is that there was all this talk of these, you know, this is a seat that Joe Biden won by 18 points. So, you know, if a seat is a seat that Joe Biden won by 18 points. So, you know, if a seat like that is in play or even flips, you know, that's going to be the sign of a really good

nine for Republicans. One other thing in Virginia is it looks like Abigail Spanberg, who has a more marginal seat, a seat that Joe Biden won by only six or seven, she's only slightly down now. And it looks like there are more early votes out that are going to be more friendly to her. So it looks like the Democrats are very likely going to go two for three seats in Virginia. The only one they lost was Elaine Luria, who, you know, that's just a tough seat. So, you know, I think if Spanberger lost in District 7, that Republicans were on track to gain over 25 seats. That doesn't look like it's going to be the case. Wow. So what would you put it at now? I actually live in that Spanberger district,

so I know it decently well. But yeah, what would you put it at now in terms of where you project Republicans may end up in terms of the House? Yeah, no, it's hard to tell, but maybe about 15 to 20 seats. So, you know, they're going to have a comfortable majority, but it's not going to be, you know, it's not going to be like 250 seats or anything. That's fascinating. I mean, that really doesn't stick. I mean, look, I mean, there's a lot of surprises, like you said, other than Florida. It looks like a better night than expected. So as we're beginning to move west on the map, Miles, are you seeing anything yet that we should know about Wisconsin, about Texas, or about any of the Midwestern states that could be noteworthy? You know, it looks like it's mostly the early vote there.

It looks like Governor Whitmer is ahead. She's someone who, if she lost, that would be a very big upset for the Republicans. But just one to sort of watch. Earlier, you were talking about, right before I came on, I think you were talking about Colorado, where Republicans talked a lot about unseating Senator Bennett. You know, I think he's probably going to be in decent shape as well. So, you know, again, just not a super Republican night. They may end up underperforming expectations. Talk to me about Pennsylvania.

I know it's still very early. I know we likely, I mean, I know we have a big blue mirage there right now. What do you make of the ticket splitting that is going on there with Shapiro outperforming Fetterman? Yes, I'm very glad you brought that up. In fact, that's why Pat Toomey was reelected in 2016 to the same seat. What I'm really watching is the collar counties around Philadelphia. This isn't an area that Oz has to win. He just has to come close. In 2016, the collar counties around Philadelphia went to Hillary Clinton by, I think, 10, 15 points. Pat Toomey only lost them by five or six. So, you know, he kept those types of counties closer. So that's in Pennsylvania. That's an area I'm really watching. That's really interesting, Miles. So we've seen a couple of initial calls by Decision Desk and others for Brian Kemp in Georgia. That's what I was just taking a look at.

I know it's too early necessarily for you to say, but would we then look at Kemp's vote total vis-a-vis Warnock? Is that looking pretty good for him? Is that a takeaway that we could say? Yeah, I mean, I would say it looks like, you know, again, I can see there being a lot of ticket splitters between Kemp

and Warren Warnock. Interestingly, in Georgia, one thing that caught my attention is it looks like someone who's performing even better than Kemp is Brad Raffensperger, who is their Secretary of State. He's the one who wouldn't, after the 2020 election, Trump was like, hey, could you find 11,000 votes for me? And Brad Raffensperger stood up to Trump. So I think it's interesting. You may have some Democrats who say, no, we don't normally vote Republican, but we like that Kemp and Raffensperger,

they did their job and stood up to Trump. Yeah. What do you what can you tell us, Miles, about the history here? Because, you know, one of the things that was really going against Democrats hard is they are the party in power and party in power usually does not do well in these midterms. And so, you know, they're still likely to lose the House. I mean, they're almost certain to lose the House. So it's not like this is a great year for them. But if they hold on to the Senate, which they certainly, you know, are in position of the potential to do, at least, that would be a sort of a victory in and of itself and certainly a lot less than what Republicans were hoping to get out of this day. You know, how unusual is that historically? And what can we say about what may have contributed to an unusual dynamic this election year?

Yeah, it's I think in something like the 40 midterm since the Civil War, the president's mid the president's party almost always loses seats. The two exceptions were in 1998, or two of the most recent exceptions were in 1998, where a lot of people didn't like how the Republicans were trying to impeach Bill Clinton. That kind of backfired on them. And in 2002, where George W. Bush was really riding high after 9-11. I think what could make this year maybe something of an exception is Biden, by most measures, isn't a popular president. But the Supreme Court isn't popular either, and that's kind of controlled by most Republican-appointed justices. One thing that I think is maybe making this election different

is we sort of touched on this earlier, but Democrats tend to be gaining with college-educated white voters. They tend to vote at the highest rates. In 2010, I think the Republicans carried the college white vote, excuse me, by 60-40. In 2018, the Democrats won that group by about eight points. That stuck in 2020. So their gains with college educated whites who are a higher propensity voting group may be helping them in some of these key races. That's really interesting. Okay, so what are some other things people should take

a look at as the night progressive miles? Is the night very young? Are we learning things? Where would you put us in terms of where we are going to be? I would say it's quite young. I mean, I would do that, you know, I mean, not to be selfish and stick to my home state of Virginia, but just the fact that it looks like Democrats are going to hold two of those three competitors seats there, that to me is a pretty good sign that this might not be as big a Republican night as some people would expect. Yep. I think that's the only takeaway that we can really come away with right now. It was great talking with you, Miles. Once again, thank you so much for joining us, sir. You were fantastic. Yeah, super, super helpful. Thank you, Miles.

All right. Thank you. Absolutely. So while he was talking, reflections, takeaways, what do you guys think? So I want to ask you guys a question. This popped into my head as I was listening to him talk. Remember when Mitch McConnell was getting in that back and forth with Rick Scott?ott yes i do because rick scott released an agenda and said we're gonna run on this and like 70 of it was like terribly unpopular so my question for you is yeah yeah was mitch mcconnell correct in that basically the republican plan should have been everybody shut the fuck up yeah no no yes i think he was saying like yeah and this is why republicans will be this is why republicans were in trouble and everybody shut the fuck up. Yeah, no, no. Yes, I think he was. It's the key thing, like,

and this is why Republicans will be, this is why Republicans were in trouble when Trump was president. You shouldn't say anything. Yeah. You actually, you should just be like, things are bad, we have this vague thing to make them better.

Because if you say, oh, are you worried about inflation? You're worried about energy prices? Is the country's vibe off? We're going to cut Social Security. That's not a good message. So that's the kind of obvious. You know what would fix your inflation? Cutting Social Security.

It certainly would. Let's give it to them. It would fix inflation. I mean, if they had run Glenn Youngkin type, plain vanilla, wearing the sweater vest, inoffensive, rich dude. Goldman Sachs banker? Wasn't he a Goldman Sachs banker?

Carlisle. Carlisle. Carlisle. Carlisle. He worked hard for that. He also had investments in Carlisle, so he couldn't even make the case against him. Anyway, if they just run bland, no record having, put him through the primary. And this is what they did with Yunkin.

He didn't have a normal voters go to the polls primary. He was basically picked by Republican elites, didn't have to say much about anything controversial. And, you know, if Republicans had candidates that were like that in all of these Senate races, I think we would see a different result. But I also think the way Miles put it is very interesting because effectively throughout history, typically party in power does poorly in midterm elections. But what he's saying is effectively because the Supreme Court made this really dramatic decision, people didn't have the sense of like Democrats are in charge of everything. They saw there was this other power center that was actually controlled by Republicans. And so he's saying that's what made this historical situation

potentially a little different is because it didn't actually feel to voters like there's just one party that's controlling the country right now. I think that's an interesting way of thinking about it. It is really interesting. And, you know, just to try and piece little signs together, you know, given the fact that it is early, to not have those two Virginia seats go red is somewhat of a bellwether. On top of, you have NBC News now calling the race straight up for Michael Bennett only once. So it's not even close. Right. So it's not even close. And as Dave Weigel puts it, this does not seem like a midterm electorate that's going to bounce Patty Murray or Michael Bennett. And I think that's an important takeaway, right? Which is that that's the quote, red rain. That's the

quote that it shows you that- The red puddle. The red puddle. The red puddle. Which is that I thought there was, let's say 10% chance, I think that I said that on the show. I thought there was a 10% chance. And my emotional leanings were genuinely putting me there, but I was trying to be objective about it. I was like, you know, I think there's a chance Patty Murray could lose, right? And I was telling you before, I'd heard rumors this morning, she's worried about it. They were saying, look, guys, it's going to take a long time. I don't think she's in danger, given the Michael Bennett vote, given the electorate that we've seen in Virginia. And that is just going to be a really interesting multifaceted takeaway for everybody. Because,

Crystal, one could make the case, and I think you're right, which is that if the Dems do hang on and they do better, especially if Warnock wins, I mean, I think that's going to be a tremendous upset for them. It really will be one of those where it would be a vindication for the abortion first messaging. And I think that will be a vindication for the abortion-first messaging. And I think that will be the absolute takeaway for the MSNBC kind of left, very convenient for the centers of power. That's going to be a fascinating thing, though, because in some ways it did work. Some of what you talked about, Kyle, look, whether it's true or not, they're not going to talk about it. I agree.

Whether it is true on that front or not, I don't think it will necessarily. I also think it will be a vindication of the Dems talking as much as they are about democracy, again, whether or not it is even true at the ballot level. So trying to think now about the meta takeaways from what we generally see, things are hoeing on tonight. We don't yet know if it's very early. Obviously, Arizona, I still expect to be a really crazy one that we're going to have to follow for days on end. Same thing in Pennsylvania, et cetera. Let's put that aside. It is interesting about what the meta debates will be because from what I can see right now on the right, there's only one thing coming out. Florida is a red state.

Really? It's like, okay, well, that's great. But they're not celebrating really anything else. That's kind of interesting to me. Okay. I want to know if you guys think this is a crazy thought, but like, in a way, I kind of think this might be a rebuke of Trump because Trump is still the shadow, like, you know, leader of the Republican party. And every time he pops up in the news, it's for some psychotic thing that he said or did. And I do think that there, at some point there was a breaking point among the American public. Obviously he didn't get reelected in 2020. And I feel like he's only steadily in the eyes of the normie,

the moderate, the independent, the average Joe and Jane, he's gone down and down and down in their estimation. And to the extent that this party is still effectively tied to him, whether or not they even like want to beically, to the extent that they are, is that sort of like an anchor around their neck that they can't shake? What do you think? The weird thing is, I don't think it's a repudiation of Trump,

it's a repudiation of the Republican Party. If things trend this way, let's all say the same thing. And repudiation is a little overstating it, but the reality is people don't like, we see this in the polls, where the country's going right now, but they don't trust Republicans to take the

will either. I think that's the issue. It has nothing to do... It is Trump, but it also isn't Trump. Well, let me temper the positive vibes for Democrats with some new news out of Georgia, which is that Herschel Walker has now taken the lead.

There you go. With 69% of votes in, he's at 49.6% under the, just under that 50 percentage point mark. Raphael Warnock at 48.6%. So they must've gotten a big jump dump of some, you know, Republican area that's positive for them or day of voting or whatever. And now the New York times with their like needle situation, they actually have Walker as a 61 percent chance of winning in Georgia. So they have Walker favored at this point. Now, that doesn't

say anything about whether it's going to go to the runoff, whatever, whatever. That's all. And, you know, 61 percent is not saying he's it's a done deal. But that picture has just shifted significantly towards Republicans. They have right now Fetterman with a 53 percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania Senate. So that one is still just like with the numbers we have in. Nobody has any idea. How is it counted in Georgia? Like so where's the next dump coming from that sounds so gross it's a it's a mix no idea it also depends on individual counties because sometimes individual counties won't be reporting at a big i remember in 2020 we went through this with fulton county

and you know a bunch of these other places so if it is really tight it could still take a while but you know noteworthy herschel walker is pulling ahead though he's got you know at 50 percent now yeah i'm trying to remember if it was mail-in election day more mail-in in in georgia well if there's mail-in there's early vote and there's election day right right so in terms of hathen in new hampshire though i mean she looks pretty solid to hold on to that seat uh they have her with a 76 chance of winning based on what is in so far. So, you know, the picture is still muddled. I think one thing we can say very clearly is the red tsunami did not materialize. Now, you could still end up with Republicans winning Georgia.

You could still end up with Republicans winning Nevada. You could still end up with them winning Pennsylvania. You could still end up with them winning Arizona. And they would still look at that as that was a really good night for us. Well, it is a good night. There's no question. So how many senators would that get them to? That's 54. 54 is the top end of what I've read was possible. 53 to 55.

So if they won, and this is for David Shore's analysis on here, this is for David Shore's analysis, which is that if they get anywhere between 53 and 55, they have a probability actually of getting a filibuster proof majority in 2024 in the event that Trump would win. So that's kind of interesting. However, if we do come out at 51 or even at 50, then that's a totally different story as to what exactly we can expect and whatnot. So I don't know. It's really, really interesting to look at all this.

Tim Alberta tweeting this. He's an analyst over at The Atlantic. Quote, this is not the red tsunami. In fact, it could be, could be the best midterm cycle for an incumbent president since the rally around the flag election of 2002. Which, if that's true, that would just be, Marshall, that would bust every narrative. That would bust literally every narrative. Even our moderate- Yeah, everything would just be like, okay, that wouldn't take much, though,

because I think all Biden would have to do is lose, what, 20 seats in the House or something, or 30 seats, and he would still be the best, I think. Compared to Bush. No, you're right. You're right, which is that, and as many people are pointing out in replies,

they're like, yeah, that would help, though, because they've been waves every single time from 2004 to 2006 to consider that for everything. So anyway, I think it is really interesting to consider it all within that framework, Crystal. I have one more for you. Could I just throw this out here? Go ahead.

So Hochul in New York, now this Hoch ahead. So, Hokel in New York. Now, this Hokel versus Zeldin governor race in New York is a real race. There's been a lot of talk about that recently. Hokel takes 75% of the early vote in New York City. That doesn't tell us much. New York City is like, I'm surprised it's not 92% for Hokel. But I actually thought that said 75% of early vote in New York City is like, I'm surprised it's not 92% for Hochul, but I actually thought that said 75% of early vote in New York, which is why I presented it to you, and as I read it, I said,

oh, just the city. Well, I'm wasting everybody's time. So Marshall, Kyle, we have Emily and Ryan on standby. Do you guys have final thoughts? We'll have a five-minute period. We're just going to play some campaign ads that are closing for all of you We get them all in here and also I need another liquid death to partner murder my thirst. I'm sorry

They gave us some free liquid death and I genuinely enjoy it Thank you to to final thoughts one shout out to the viewer who called out a surface We are dozens of us but we we are strong and we love our microsoft surfaces two though on a serious note um i think our early call that this wasn't a red wave was kind of vindicated like no matter what happens tonight i think it was clear when we started this recording i just didn't feel like you're gonna have like this like transformation like red wave election that many people on Twitter especially have been tweeting around. So that's just going to be my main takeaway.

It's just not going to be – we are not going to talk about this election the way we talk about 2010 and 1994. Definitely. That is a really important point. Not the shellacking that Barack Obama got. Yeah. So the other day on my show, I made a similar argument that I want to just be wishy-washy and agnostic all day and say, I don't know what's going to happen. Let's wait and see. And in part, that's what we're doing here. But also at the same time, I said, if you had a gun to my head, I'd say 51 or 52 in the Senate for Republicans. And they'll pick up maybe 20, 25 seats in the House, which puts it significantly below the 2010 red wave.

So and as of right now, it looks like that's what's panning out. But, you know, it ain't over till it's over. And it's very possible that that it looks that prediction looks good now, but it's very possible that it doesn't materialize. And again, I think the reason why this was such a difficult election to get to get our finger on the pulse of is because there's just so many complicating factors. The inflation thing, the crime thing. I mean, only 19% of the country thinks we're going on the right track. I mean, this is something that it should have been a shellacking for the Democrats. But when you add in the 53% of the Republicans running deny the election and you add in Trump still, I think, an anchor around their neck, you add in Biden's student loan debt reduction and

Roe v. Wade being overturned. It's like, I don't fucking know what's going to happen. We're all just waiting and watching. I say this every time. This is why I love election night. I like to be humbled, but beyond that, I like to see what people think. It always surprises us, no matter what, and I think that has been vindicated tonight. Yep.

Indeed. All right, guys. Okay, guys, thank you both so much. You both did a fantastic, fantastic job. All right, everybody, give us five minutes. We're going to play some ads, closing pitches from all the candidates for all of you, and we'll be right back here at the desk with Emily and Ryan.

Let's get to a control room. Let's roll. It's crazy. Crystal was just saying she wants Tim Ryan to run for president. Oh, right. That's right. Again.

I feel actually really bad that we had to torture them with all those ads. It's a great trivia question. Did Tim Ryan run for president? You know, it's funny. I was doing a monologue about like Biden 2024

and I was remembering some of the people that ran and I was like, wow, we just never heard from them again. You could actually do a whole trivia thing like did this,

like of 20 different people, did they run for president? Remember John Delaney? Oh, I do remember him. thing. Like, of 20 different people, did they run for president? Remember John Delaney? Oh, wow. I do remember him. Unfortunately, Crystal, if I recall, we were forced to interview him like 12 times over at Rising. And the 13th time, I was like, enough. I can't do this.

They were good. They were good. I cannot sit with this man. Okay. All of that aside, Emily, Ryan, you guys have been watching the results. You've been taking it in. What are you guys' top takeaways? Emily, what do you think so far? So I agree with much of what has been said. What I think right now is happening is we're

teetering between whether this is a good night for Republicans or a great night for Republicans. And I agree with what Kyle and Marshall were saying as they were giving their final thoughts, which is that it's looking more like this is just a good night for Republicans. Like this is politics as usual. When you have an unpopular president and a bad economy, this is just going to be a sort of an easy win for Republicans and they're going to stop right there. I do think there are some interesting indications. I think people should be watching Texas really closely, the Rio Grande Valley.

Sagar, you know all about it. But one of the things that stands out to me is where Maria Alvarez Salazar won re-election in Florida's 27th district, which was redrawn a bit, but redrawn a bit still, if you look at Daily Kos's metrics, redrawn a bit to the point where it was still a razor thin margin for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. That was an absolute blowout. And so what we're talking about there is the Hispanic vote. We're talking about whether Republicans made inroads. And that's particularly with the Cuban vote, of course, in Miami. Maria Alvaro Salazar is a longtime Telemundo person. But if we're looking at that race, I then want to see what happens. I want to see what Texas 34 looks like with Mayra Flores' reelection.

I want to see if, and that's a redrawn district too. So there's where I'm looking at particularly, because I think if those indications come in, we might see different things in the Oregon governor's race. We might see different things in Wisconsin. So I still don't think we know whether it's a good night or a great night for Republicans. Although I do think where things stand now, just good. Yeah, I think you're right. What do you think, Brian? So, well, it's a good night so far for weed and psychedelics. Okay.

So, in other words, it's a great night for Ryan Grimm. It's a great night for Ryan. But first, there are two key abortion referendums that, I mean, there are several. There's Vermont, which, guess what, it's going to win. There's California, guess what, that one's going to win. There's California. Guess what? That one's going to win. But the ones that people were looking at were Michigan and Kentucky. And so far, voters in both of those states are overwhelmingly approving abortion rights.

It could still swing. But I think Kentucky following Kansas has to make people think differently about where this country is when it comes to abortion rights? I think not only those ballot initiatives, but also these results have to make people think differently about abortion rights. Because, I mean, I was among the people who were out there like screaming and beating my chest, like, you have to talk about the freaking economy. Like, where is your economic message? You can't run every ad on abortion. Maybe you can run every ad on abortion because I mean, right now, yeah, we don't know. There are a lot of seats out, et cetera, et cetera. It's definitely not the red tsunami. I mean, Democrats won two out of the three swing districts in Virginia. There was a lot of Republican hopium around New Hampshire that Bolduc was going to pull that one out. They were going to

win one of those houses is out. Yeah. And they were going to win one of those House seats. Yeah, and they were going to win one of the House seats. They thought they were going to win a House seat in Rhode Island. I mean, so the maximalist red tsunami did not happen. Now, do Republicans manage to cobble together a bare majority in the Senate? That's possible. They're certainly going to get control of the House. There's no doubt about that. But, you know, Emily, you said like, oh, this is just what happens when the economy is bad and the president's approval rating is in the low 40s. No, what happens normally when you have that set of affairs is is the red suit, the shellacking, what you normally get in, you know, 70 percent wrong track and everybody like, oh, my God, the economy is

terrible and gas prices are high and inflation is out of control. And I really don't like this president. I really don't want him to run for president again. You get a shellacking. So to me, what's really striking is that that hasn't materialized. And I think it's because of two things. I think it is like obviously abortion, you know, is important here. And I think abortion did contribute to some of the problems Republicans had in terms of the candidates that they chose and the sense that not just on abortion, but on a whole raft of issue, these people are freaking crazy and they're out to lunch. And I might not be that happy with the Democrats in charge, but I don't think I can hand off the ball to these people. What do you think? I think it's interesting

because so Ryan and I were just on Megyn Kelly and Ryan was talking about, you made such an interesting point, which is that the youth vote in 2018 was really crucial for Democrats. And we actually still don't know if the youth vote in 2022 will be crucial to Democrats, particularly because of this issue of abortion. And the reason, and I think this gets lost in sort of the beltway chatter, especially the last couple of weeks, that Democrats ran hard on abortion. It's not just because they're completely out of touch, which as we all know, they are, they are, they are completely out of touch. It's not just that. It's also though, because of turnout, midterm elections

are about turnout. And if you think you can get your base to turn out for democracy and abortion, because those are the people you do not want sitting on the couch come election night, then you are going to run a bunch of ads on democracy and abortion. Now, did they overdo it? I think very clearly the answer to that is yes, they didn't have a good economic message. I think though, that's why they were running on those things. And the other point that I'll make is like, I guess I was talking about the context of the realignment, the sort of this bigger conversation about whether it's a great night for Republicans. Like a generation defined election. Right, right, right. Like if this is a real turning point pivot for Republicans, because you see, for instance, inroads with black and Hispanic voters, like I think we should be looking really closely at Milwaukee and Philadelphia. It's not like the black vote in Milwaukee and Philadelphia is

going to go to Republicans, but are the margins slimmer than they should be for a midterm election for Democrats? Those are the sort of things that I think will make it a quote great night for Republicans if that's what they're looking at. But no, I think that's a good point, Crystal. I've got a piece of data here to add into the conversation. This is from Nate Cohn of The New York Times. He says it's still early, obviously, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in the Pennsylvania counties that seem like they may be complete. Fascinating. That is. Running ahead of Biden, then he's going to win. And now, on the other hand, maybe Oz dramatically outperforms Trump in the red counties. And that sort of polarization is certainly something that we have seen.

But, you know, the other thing that Cohen has said is it looks like Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida. So put Florida aside. I mean, I guess the question for Republicans is, you know, maybe as you get further out West, maybe there is a different dynamic, maybe in states where you have a more significant Latino population, maybe you have more of that realignment, more of those shifts. And so even though they, you know, it looks like Georgia probably going to a runoff, Pennsylvania, who knows at this point, New Hampshire, certainly totally off the table. Do they pick up in Arizona? Do they pick up in Nevada? What do those pieces look like? Yeah. And I think this also goes to the messaging and reality. Like we focus so much on

the way that candidates are messaging, what Democrats are talking about. But that's only a small amount of the input that voters have. Very true. Voters are filling up their gas tank. Voters are also talking to people all the time about abortion rights, things that are in the news. About education. About education, about the schools question.

We'll see how some of that shakes out. But it comes down to salience. When people say that the most important issue to them is inflation, does that mean that that's what they're hearing in the news? But if somebody's saying the most important issue to me is abortion and it's overwhelmingly for Democrats, does that mean these are people who are coming out and voting who otherwise wouldn't have voted? And it doesn't actually matter whether Democrats had message on it. For people in Pennsylvania, the last month or so

I don't know. I don't understand how a candidate could break through on anything Yeah, like every every time you turn on the TV something it's eight ads and then it's back to the show You're watching and then the Phillies lose and then All the Eagles are still undefeated and you're like what do you what am I even taking from this? And yeah, well, I was gonna say crystals point about the Nate Cohn data is, I think, really, really important. Because a lot of what we polled here with our elements, it's looking at the predictions from 538 and RCP and Republicans. Just in the last couple of days, I can tell you, talking to conservative sources, Sagar, you may have had a similar experience. They were actually expecting that the polls were still under-

I was. I said it here publicly. Underestimating Republicans. So when you're looking at Oregon, when you're looking at New York, so if the polls are underestimating Lee Zeldin, is it possible that Zeldin wins by two, three percent? That's what Republicans were going into tonight thinking. And a lot of people on the right were building into these numbers, perhaps a couple, two, three extra points for Republicans in places like deep blue places like New York and Oregon. And if that doesn't pan out, if Democrats actually overperform the polls, that is a very big story. I think you're right. Yes. Well, and we know in one state they did, and that's New Hampshire. New Hampshire is the state that we probably have the clearest picture right now because they have limited early vote, because most of the vote is in, because Maggie Hassan is consistently outperforming Biden in county after county after county.

Biden won New Hampshire by seven points. Right. The polls did not have Maggie Hassan up by anywhere near seven points. Even the most optimistic polls for her down the stretch had her up by like two. So at least when you have a significantly college educated electorate, which is what you have disproportionately in the state of New Hampshire, you had a dynamic of them actually underestimating Democratic support. We can show that. Number 12, guys, if you can, please. That's our New Hampshire element, just to give everybody some insight. This is going to be a fun game in the future, just looking at the exact call. So you can see

there, which is that now the final RCP average had Maggie Hassan only up by one point. And while the 538 average did have her at 72 and at 28%, they also still pointed to a much narrower race. And that doesn't yet seem. So right now, the data that we have is 41% of the vote is in New Hampshire, 56% Maggie Hassan, 42% Bulldog. Now, some of that could come back for Bulldog as some of the later, I think more rural areas are the ones where he's expected to have support. But the blowout scenario, which is what what i'll be honest i i really thought that it was a very distinct possibility that michael bennett not michael bennett uh losing necessarily but i didn't think they would just call it for him you know like the minute that the polls used

to be patty murray like sweating right exactly that's what i'm saying i thought she would sweat i thought she would win i believe that was close yeah i thought she would win but she win by two remember who was the new governor? What was the guy's name? Phil Murphy. Yeah, and he won by three. Everyone was like, holy shit. It was close. He won by three points.

That guy thinks he's going to run for president. Oh, by the way. Good luck to him. Okay, process elimination. Yeah, I mean, I do think, like, the reason that this election midterm, I think we can already say it is definitely not a shellacking. It's definitely different than what normally happens when you have a party in power. And I really attribute that to the fact that

Democrats were just as energized as Republicans. Normally, the reason you have the shellacking is because the party in power's voters are sort of dispirited, hasn't really been everything that they expected. They're kind of disappointed. They don't really love these people anymore. And they're like, fuck it, I'm just staying home this time. And I do think that this is, you know, this is a Trump effect. There is a sense of existential dread and doom and energy and whatever going on with the Democratic base. The abortion ruling certainly fuels that. And so that's causing them to turn up out at the polls in the same margins of enthusiasm as Republicans. And I do think that that's why this election looks different than midterms when you have the party in power and you have a bad economy and you have inflation and you have a low presidential approval rating, all those things.

High gas prices. And yet Democrats might still hold on to the Senate. Like that is really that's really different. And I think that that's a big part of it. But also the and and also the changing Democratic coalition changes that. So in the 80s and 90s, 60s, 70s, 90s, when Democrats are still like if you're a working class voter, you're you're a Democrat first. And if you're not, then you have questions to answer. Why are you voting for these Nelson Rockefeller Republicans?

And those types of voters show up in presidential years and then drop off in midterms. Now they have a much more educated electorate that is showing up in primaries. They're voting for City Council, they're voting for school board, and they're definitely showing up for midterms. So what's interesting though, and this is the the one sort of like devil's advocate argument that I'll continue to make, is that those Florida numbers are really interesting to me because that's a blowout for Maria Alvaro Salazar to win that district, which was Donna Shalala's district. It was it was shifted a little bit to favor Republicans. I think it went from plus four Dems to plus one Dems, according to 538. But for a double digit win for a Republican there, I think that's really interesting. And I just don't think we know what's going to happen in Texas yet. And so just in terms of that sort of broader realignment question, whether there is

more evidence of a pivot, I do think it's we still the jury is kind of out on that question. Well, we may still I mean, we may still have a real full on realignment, but also have Democrats do better than expected because of the point Ryan is making ofignment, but also have Democrats do better than expected. Yeah. Because of the point Ryan is making of like, you know, Democrats used to really be envious of the fact that like all these like affluent white Republicans would show up every frickin election no matter what. Now those people are Democrats. Yeah. So that does kind of help you out in a midterm election ultimately, doesn't it? I also wonder, let's put the House aside and let's look at the Senate. I mean, I'm looking at the New York Times probability

right now has a 53% chance that Herschel Walker does win. Their quote unquote needle has a toss, has it currently leaning towards 51 seats for the Republicans. So look, I think it's still within the realm of possibility. As you said, Crystal, Fetterman may be outrunning Biden, but Dr. Oz is very likely to outrun Trump in the mainline suburbs of Philadelphia. So that could equal out. We could still have a scenario where Dr. Oz ekes out a 0.1% of victory. So on an absolute numbers basis. And that's a bad candidate. Right. And we could still end up in absolute numbers basis with like 53 Republican seats, right? Like Blake Master. We, you know, Arizona, I don't have a scrap of data in front of me yet out of Arizona.

No idea what's going to happen. Nevada, I mean, we still got an hour until, or 45 minutes right now until Nevada polls go ahead and close. So I think, you know, when Crystal and I wake up tomorrow morning and we have to do the show 7 a.m. whenever we're reporting for everybody, it's going to be fun. Oh, we all feel so badly for you, Sog. When we're all up here at 7. You'll be looking right into the sun. I will. You'll get all the energy that you've ever needed.

At least standard time is back, and at least the sun will be up. At that time, it could be a totally different night. We could be talking for still about 53 Republican sentences. And for Republicans who are disappointed that they are not yet looking at a bigger night, one thing they can remember is that if you look at 2008, when Obama came in, he had a bunch of coattails. He swept in something like 13, 15 House Democrats with him. Biden had reverse coattails.

Biden lost, what, 10 to 15 seats? I think it was about 14, I think. And so he baked in a bunch of losses. Biden has been so good at losing that there's less losing for him to do this time around. So if you imagine him losing all of those seats, right, those 15 or so that he lost already, and then you add them to the ones he's losing tonight, then you've got a really big number, which if you're Obama, you kind of, he wouldn't say this publicly, but privately, I'm sure he's thinking, OK, yeah, the only reason your wipeout isn't worse is that you already got half wiped out. True.

When you swept your way in. That's not a bad point there. I've got some Arizona numbers. Ah, some data. Some data from Arizona. And this is 40 percent in now. Not bad not bad caveats we don't know early vote they have where they're from all that stuff okay uh mark kelly is from venezuela no no no bamboo balance

mark kelly 56.4 percent and and Blake Masters at 41.3 percent. And the New York Times has this now based on what's in as a lean Democrat. So they are seeing this based on what's I mean, 40 percent is not nothing. Forty percent. You can look at it and start to get a gauge of where it's going to go. They are feeling like Democrats are doing well there so far. What about Maricopa County? So I think that's obviously the one. OK, so we've got 53 percent of the vote in from Maricopa County. Mark Kelly is leading there at 59 percent. If it does get close, a lot of the stuff that we talked about that is going very viral amongst MAGA folks about the closure, about the, oh, and I should update everybody, that lawsuit

that I talked about that the Republicans filed that was denied by a judge. So the extra vote time they were asking for was not granted. So of course we can also see a potential fight in the future there. So that's interesting. I mean, to have 41% of the vote in, in terms of where else I was also looking, you know, we almost overlooked this one, but you got 22% of the vote in um in terms of where else i was also looking you know we almost overlooked this one but you got 22 of the vote in and gretchen whitmer actually looks to be doing quite well so that's another yeah that's another huge and the huge abortion referendum is right it's currently up 14 points so i think the abortion referendum has the coattails for wit here's here's a significant one this is per. This is per Decision Desk.

Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania Cup. Yeah, that's a big one. And here's another one. That is a big one. They promised we wouldn't have results, and then they're like, oh, Josh won. Well, we should give the caveat. That is Decision Desk, right? I've actually said this in our call.

They are very premature, in my opinion, in some of their calls. So we'll see. But even though it is still a major organization they're a bit trigger happy for them to say that that's significant early on right in the counting process for shapiro to be called and that is significant not just because you know where pennsylvania is trending and is it the red okay wave or the red puddle or the red whatever um but also because mastriano was a genuine election psycho.

And he was in Pennsylvania. This is something we covered a lot on Breaking Points. You, as governor, appoint the Secretary of State. And this is a dude who isn't just like echoing Stop the Steal stuff. He was there on January 6th. He was part- He booked a bus or something?

He came up- He never entered the Capitol. He was part of the bus or something. He came. He came. He never entered the Capitol. He did not enter the Capitol. He came up in the like January 6th committee testimony thing because he was so integral to Trump's whole fake elector plot in the state. Like this guy was in it in like true believer all the way in. And so, you know, this is a real this is a real rebuke of the Trump stop the steal candidates. I think Shapiro also deserves credit. Actually, David Sirota, our partners over at The Lever, Sirota has known Shapiro for a while and he went and went to school together. Yeah, right. And he

went and actually followed Shapiro on the campaign trail. And he has done he has established a real statewide profile for himself to going after big pharma, actually taking on the fracking companies, go taking on the Catholic Church. And so I don't think it's just a rebuke of Mastriano. I think it also is an affirmative vote in favor of Josh Shapiro here, who seems to have impressed Pennsylvania voters. I think that's like that for that to come in this early is a really big deal. And to look like it does this early is a really big deal in terms of whether this will be a tsunami or a wave. And another question of that is in your district that you were talking about earlier, Crystal, which is Virginia 7. It looks like Abigail Spanberger has bounced back in that district.

CNN just called it for Abigail Spanberger. CNN just called it for Abigail Spanberger. She held on, huh? Right. That is a really big deal because before we came into... The CIA shouldn't beat the cop. Yes. Stop complaining about defunding. The CIA knows a thing or two about winning elections. So when I was, before we came into the studio, I had Fox News on and I forget who said this on Fox. They said, if you're looking at just a red wave, what you would expect is for Yesli Vega to win Virginia 7. They were looking at other Virginia districts and saying, if you're expecting a tsunami, you would expect, I think it was like

Virginia 10. Yeah, it was Jennifer Wexton. It was Wexton. That's right. You would expect that. You can expect the tsunami if Wexton loses. Abigail Spanberger is not even going to lose. So, again, I think what we're looking at here as these numbers sort of come out is a kind of targeted tsunami in certain places win in Florida, 27. Insane. A loss for a Republican, I think, in Virginia seven, which I know it was redrawn. But that was Dave Bratz district in Eric Cantor's district. Yes. This is it's it's almost unrecognizable, though. Yeah. It's almost completely different district. So it I mean, it's so close. Yeah, it's it's it is a swing district. Biden did win it. So, you know, there's another seat in Virginia. There were three Virginia incumbents who were basically on the rocks. The last one is Elaine Luria. Doesn't look good for her. She lost. According to CNN, she has lost. Now, that is a Virginia Beach district. And it's long been. It's gone back and forth. You remember that dude, Scott Rangel? He held that seat.

Glenn Nye. I don't know if you remember Glenn Nye. He's like this blue dog Democrat. He held that seat. So anyway, that's one that really goes back and forth. Now, if you were really like, you know, the Democratic, like, actually, it's going to be a blue wave kind of person, you would expect them to hold on to this kind of a seat. So it does show you, you know, there is a shift towards Republicans, especially I think in the House where the national trends and the national mood are basically the

thing that determines. But yeah, the fact that Democrats held on to two out of those three seats shows you it's not quite what Republicans were ultimately hoping for. Here's an interesting data point. Nate Cohn saying that the GOP chance of taking the House has stayed steady. However, Democrats now favored to actually hold 208 seats up from the 203 at the beginning. So, you know, five more seats to hold on to. Ryan, as you said, it doesn't necessarily matter in terms of the actual doings of the house, whether you have 203 or 208 whenever you're in the minority. But that's an indication to us of the tsunami, the whatever, the rain, the wave that we can try and look at. Same interesting new data

actually out of Georgia. They are back to a true toss-up with some of the new county data that is coming out. Unfortunately, Georgia is still not, no county is like near 100%, so we don't really have all that good of an idea of what's going on. But we do have, I think you're right. So we've got 80% of the vote in right now. Herschel Walker is at 49.3.

Raphael Warnock is at 48.8. So I mean, it is just razor tight. Go ahead, Ryan. Yeah. Oh, and I just wanted to talk about weed and psychedelics. So, I have a point on Herschel Walker. No, I actually think, though, one important thing to keep in mind is that for Republicans, if Herschel Walker doesn't go to a runoff, they were told, especially sort of the MAGA sect, they were told that Herschel Walker was an abomination, the worst possible candidate that they could put up. And Herschel Walker, from the sort of conventional wisdom standpoint

of a non-typical voter, of a sort of D.C. journalist person, yeah, he's a terrible candidate by a lot of different metrics, especially if you're a Democrat, just a terrible candidate. But at the same time, if you're a Trump voter, you might look at Herschel Walker and the way that he handled all of that oppo research that was dumped on him in October about potentially paying for abortions, which he denies, which seems ridiculous to me that he's denying it. But anyway, the point is he handled that in a sort of Trumpian fashion. He did. This is baked in to the Herschel Walker that people think they already know. Right. It doesn't bother him.

It was this idea that he was changed. And so saying what he did in the past only confirms his point that he changed. So there are some of these candidates. Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz is one of them. I think Ron Johnson you can count as one of them. Blake Masters, Kerry Lake. We don't know what's going to happen with them. But what's going to happen in this internecine fight among Republicans is some people are going to say if Herschel Walker pulls it out, which we don't know, they're going to say, look, Mitch McConnell, it was all fine.

You know, what was wrong with you? Yeah. But Shapiro's early win is a good sign of the contrary. Well, you don't have to go to Pennsylvania. Look at Georgia. Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger, they've already been declared victorious. That's a great point. And it wasn't even close. I think it's a great point.

In fact, Raffensperger, you know, won by an even larger margin than Kemp. So if you're really trying to make the apples to apples comparison here, Herschel Walker is dramatically underperforming what his fellow Republicans are. And, you know, obviously, like, they did not go along with Stop the Steal. They very courageously, really,

stood up directly to Donald Trump. And voters clearly rewarding them for that independence, ultimately. And Kemp survived his primary, ultimately, very easily, too, which was kind of a surprise to me, honestly. I think that's a good point.

Also, they would counter and say nobody got more hate this cycle than Herschel. That's just how they would counter it. But Ryan, what were you going to say? If he does win and what Democrats ought to do is flip the script and just lobby him relentlessly. Like if you want to throw these complete wild cards into the Senate, then you know what? We're going to talk to this guy. That would be interesting. Because if you talk –

That's a good point. He's conservative. He's got some – Is he? General views of the world. But you sit him down before a vote with the person that can connect with him, you don't know how he's going to vote. So here's an interesting number. 71% of the vote is in

in Lauren Boebert's district. CBS is flagging this as a potential upseat for the Democrat Adam Frisch, who is right now up at 52% of the vote. And Boebert is at 47.9, so almost 48.

She's down four points. Wow. With 71% of the vote. That would be big. This gives me one in yeah to my psychedelic point okay colorado has psychedelics on the ballot didn't this is a great denver denver already had psychedelics right yeah okay colorado colorado has it statewide on the ballot okay it's up right now by 33 points holy shit do they have any other referendums wow i

don't know what else Colorado has. If that referendum is on the ballot and Boebert goes down, that's a lot of... That one's going to bring the young people out and other itinerant voters who are like... Itinerant voters? They are itinerant. A key voting block, the itinerants.

I saw them at Bonnaroo, the itinerant. And they're like, look, okay, wait, you're going to legalize mushrooms here? Okay, I'll come out and vote for that. Oh, and Boebert's on the ballot too? Don't like her. Yeah, you know, Emily's not wrong. Like, they've got 70-some percent of the vote there in that district.

And she's, you know, she's not up by all that much. Interesting. So checking in again, Gretchen Whitmer, 25%, she's at 53, 44. Also, I have to come back to the Kemp numbers. Brian Kemp is destroying Stacey Abrams right now. At 54 to 45, I mean it is not even close. Nine point margin with 81% of the vote. Can I say, I think that's also worth,

when you're looking at Abrams, I think it's also worth looking at Christ and Demings, which got a ton of money. Yes, they did. So Stacey Abrams, Charlie Crist, but especially also Val Demings and Stacey Abrams, they got so much money,

and we already know that they're getting trounce. Those are three money pits for Democrats. It's so weird, right, to look at, like Florida is the biggest Republican story of the night. I mean, DeSantis has won now by 20 points. That's insane. I mean, in modern Florida history, I can't even think of a single election

to even come close to that. And in terms of Marco Rubio and his victory there, same thing. I mean, he's running ahead by 16 points. Like, if you look at the two of those, yeah, Val Deming spent 75 million to lose by 16, to lose as if she was running in a deep red state like South Carolina. Well, she also, didn't she do the, like, she was a police officer, right?

Yeah, she was a cop. Yeah, she did a kind of like, I'm the sort of like tough on crime. Yeah, and she was a really good candidate. And it's a shame that Democrats had to waste her in an unwinnable race. Like, Beasley was not a very good candidate. Beasley was fine as far as a run-of-the-mill Democrat. Not objectionable to anybody, but wasn't blowing anybody away. Whereas Val Demings had some real political skill that she brought to this race.

It was like, that's going to move the needle maybe two points. Right. Or not at all. And that might be something that Beasley ends up needing. Like if Beasley runs in Florida, like maybe she loses by 25. Right. So we've been talking a lot about ticket splitters, which, you know, considering how hardened, how partisan, whatever, the fact that ticket splitters are obviously a really significant part of the story is quite interesting.

And in Arizona, you have this dynamic again, although maybe somewhat less extreme than we see in other places. Right now, Carrie Lake is running about 4% ahead of Blake Masters in Maricopa County. So that's like, I guess if you do the election denial, but you're like good on TV. But here's the thing, does anybody-

She is good though. Look, I will say this about her. That lady is a star. I honestly and I say this with no pleasure, I think she will be president. I'm telling you. She's going to win, though. She does have a haircut.

You know what? It really, I mean, I got to look at the projections with her, but it's definitely not clear she wins at this point. I mean, considering Kelly has a significant lead over Masters, enough for the New York Times to say the race

is leaning toward Kelly, at the very least, it's going to be close. Think about it this way. What are the chances that Lake wins by four or more at this point? It's not even clear.

She'll probably win, right? Not totally clear that she'll win. But if she wins by less than four and Masters is running four points behind her, then he's toast. He needs to close the gap. He needs to be running a little bit closer to Lake unless you think Lake's going to win

with this significant gap. I'm not sure. Maybe you guys are right. Maybe somebody help me understand this right. Because you've got 47% of the vote in. You've got Katie Hobbs at 55% and Kerry Lake at 45%. But in the Senate, it's actually Blake Masters is running four points behind that. But Mark Kelly is retaining the same amount of votes.

So does that mean that there's ticket splitting going on with Katie Hobbs? Or are we seeing a significant underperformance here with Carrie Lake? I mean, the other question- You'll see a lot of Lake Kelly voters. So right now we've got Maricopa still only at 53%, but as I understand it, that one is like, that was the major bellwether, right? Like where Biden, I think he won by 51% or something. So that was a big event. We still only got 53% in there. There are two counties in Arizona where we don't have any vote in at all. I'm not unfamiliar enough with the geography of Arizona to say. The rest of the counties, it does look

like it's around like 50 to 60 something percent that are reporting in. So this could be premature in the way that we're talking here. Right, Emily, about Arizona? Or are we seeing an underperformance like we are pretty much all across the board? Yeah, I mean, I do think it's early, but if we are seeing similar numbers to what we saw in Pennsylvania, if we're seeing similar numbers to what we saw with the Spanberger district, then, yeah, we would expect this to be within a margin of like one or two percent for both Carrie Lake and Blake Masters, with Masters running a little bit behind her probably. And one thing I wanted to toss to you guys was I pulled this quote from Dave Wasserman just yesterday. He said, encouraging news for Dems in the final NBC News poll, voting enthusiasm gap closes from 78% to 69% pro-R to, and this is like way counter-narrative from what the legacy media was talking about the last few days, to 73 to 73 percent. The enthusiasm gap closed in the days leading up to the election with, as you've been pointing out, Crystal, super high gas prices, a very unpopular president.

The consumer price index, crazy high, real wages down, all of these different things, bad housing market. Now, Wasserman continued, biggest problem for Dems is still independence. Just 28% approve of Biden and 66 to 28% say cost of living is more important than abortion. But when you have Democrats with that same level of enthusiasm in a final NBC News poll, 73 to 73%, that is telling. That's very interesting. I do really feel like that's almost the key story of this election as we see it so far. Because, again, if it was normal midterm election, party in power, economy is terrible, people are angry, not happy, presidential approval rating really low, you would see much worse results than even what we know already. And so I really do think what is different is that you do have that democratic enthusiasm number. I do think that is the story of what makes this election different than other midterm elections. And I think that comes from a couple of places. I mean, number one,

Donald Trump is continues to be, he's not on the ballot. He's a very motivating factor. It doesn't help that he's out there like maybe I'm going to announce I'm going to run tonight or maybe next week or whatever. That's a good point. Yeah. I mean, that, you know, that was probably not helpful. So there's a sense of like the stakes are existential. And then I do also think that previously Biden's approval rating with Democrats was really not great. And once he did some stuff that they liked, his approval rating with Democrats went up really

significantly and they sort of like rallied around him. And that was responsible for his uptick in terms of the approval rating. And so I think it's the combination of like, actually, they're kind of good with some of the things Biden's been getting accomplished. They feel like he's been a decent president, even though they continue to tell pollsters they'd rather have someone else next time around. But they're like, OK, you're getting some stuff done. And we really don't want these people in there. And Donald Trump is ready to run for president. Ah, we got to go vote. To me, those dynamics are what is making this result different from what the typical midterm result would be. Here's an interesting call, again,

from our present friends. The first, the trigger happy, but still interesting nonetheless. They're calling the race for Maggie Hassan. They saying that Maggie Hassan wins reelection there. Also, here's a really interesting stat from Pennsylvania. And this gets to exactly what you were talking about with outperforming Biden. He's outperforming it in all eight of those districts, Crystal, that you had highlighted before. All eight of the Pennsylvania counties that fully have reported their vote, he's outperforming them in every single one of them, meaning that Oz will have to significantly outrun Trump in the Philly suburbs. Now, I think that's still possible. Right. Sure. I do think that is one, Emily was talking about

the media narrative around Hershel Walker. I mean, there is like a media narrative around John Fetterman, too, and the impact of his stroke. And, you know, ultimately, I highlighted this earlier, even after seeing the debate performance. And that was very difficult for everybody to watch and understanding there are, you know, very significant lingering effects of the stroke. People still like John Fetterman a lot more than they like Dr. Oz. And at the end of the day, I mean, if he pulls this out and he ultimately wins, I think that's going to be a lot of the reason why. Just saying, I was just texting with a Fetterman person. Yeah, how are they feeling?

Said Oz only got bad news so far. We got to make sure we hold our own in the suburbs, which goes to your point. That is a really big deal. Feels good, knock on wood. Suburbs, like if Oz's hope is in the Philadelphia suburbs, that's not the hope he had when he went into today. Yeah, that's right. But in that sort of the feeling that Republicans had going into tonight,

that was the hope because these are people that are voting on what they see as pocketbook issues, that are voting on inflation, that are voting on education. That actually was, they were saying, we did it. We got those swing voters back in the suburbs, at least for this cycle, because of both the economy and culture war issues. They really saw the culture war issues as a win for them on this point because of education. And I think that's clearly the case in Florida. And I think we're going to see a couple pockets where that is you know, that's clearly the case in Florida. And I think we're going to see a couple pockets where that is true, but it's clearly not going to be true in different pockets. And that might be the real story going out of this. And a really

counter-narrative question that I want to toss to you guys is whether abortion and democracy, very counter-narrative, were so helpful enough with a Democratic base that they offset, perhaps, some Republican gains. I'm not saying that happened, but I'm saying what if, actually, the numbers, the internal numbers that Democrats had when they were poll testing, talking about democracy, waxing poetic about democracy, and talking about Dobbs, what if that actually did help them in the Philly suburbs significantly? I think abortion and democracy are actually shorthands for what Crystal was saying earlier, which is that A, okay, abortion really mattered and really drove people out of the boat. And democracy can be considered to be a stand-in for what you were saying about

these people are crazy. Mastriano is totally crazy. And this is not the country that we see ourselves as part of. Democracy, it's abortion, it's even some of the stuff they're saying, cutting Social Security, Medicare, like all of this are like, ah, I don't know. This was what came out in the New York Times-Siena college poll that I personally was very skeptical of. I was like,

this looks very rosy for Democrats and they've been off before and I don't really think so. It was very off in 2020. Yes. One of their big takeaways was overall, people want Republicans to control the Senate, but they don't like the Republican candidates. They prefer the Democratic candidates in their state. And so I think that's, you know, part of what you are seeing ultimately play out here. I also remember, Sagar, we covered that Wall Street Journal poll that had white suburban women fleeing the Democratic Party and moving abruptly to the Republican Party from the time of like Roe versus Wade and the Maximus Democratic hopes to

the close of the election. That I'm really starting to question, because especially when you look at New Hampshire, right? This is a lot of white people in that state, a lot of college educated people in that state, a lot of suburban white college educated people in that state clearly did not have some big shift to the right over either pocketbook issues or any culture war issues that they were trying to run on either. Go ahead, Ryan. Let me throw out a point that might be crazy, but you're not going to hear it anywhere else. All of the talk on the economy from the media has been about inflation. Inflation matters to people, obviously. See, it's gas pumped, grocery store, not dismissing that.

We are in one of the best jobs economies and wage economies Great point. that we have been in in 50 years. Yeah. So what if, and going back to the point I was making earlier about material reality versus messaging, what if in order for that economic messaging to really break through in a red wave type of way, you actually need significant joblessness and unemployment. You need 10% unemployment, yeah. You know what I was wondering about? That's possible.

Very good point. I think it's an interesting point. I don't quite buy it. Because you have so consistently people saying, like, my finances suck. I've been hurt by it. My wages are going down because of inflation. Gas prices are hurting me. So I think people are genuinely feeling the pain. What I wondered about, though, is like when you ask people what's causing inflation, they mostly don't say Joe Biden. They mostly are like corporate profits, supply chain issues, Ukraine war. So I wonder if there was, you know, an attempt to totally pin this like, this is Joe Biden's fault that people just didn't really buy. They actually had kind of a more

realistic view of the economy. Like, you know, I mean, there's inflation everywhere and we had COVID and all these crazy, all this crazy shit just happened. So I don't know that you can really totally lay the blame at their feet. And then I've been very critical of the Democratic lack of messaging on the economy, which I still think was a missed opportunity. But perhaps there's a critique of the Republican lack of messaging on what they would actually do economically. And it turns out it wasn't enough just to say like, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, inflation's bad.

True to Tom. When people aren't really persuaded that that is in fact all Joe Biden's fault. That is a fantastic point. And look, I think there will be a lot of takeaways from this election. I still think, you know, it could be premature, all of this. Of course, we can only work with the data that we have. Also did want to give people an update, which is kind of funny. Maricopa County says they will expect to have all their ballots counted by Friday. Thank you, Maricopa.

We really appreciate the work that you have put in over the last two years to make sure that we don't have to live through the hell of 2020. If they didn't have to spend the last two years recounting. What have people been doing for the last two years? What they've been doing is recounting and dodging death threats.

Stop! You guys ready for this one? Yeah. Fetterman, according to the New York Times, now has a 73% chance of winning. That's big. That is big. That's a big one.

So Dr. Oz won't have to move to Pennsylvania. He's got eight houses. He's got eight houses. He's got eight houses. How many houses did he decide to have? When you're that rich, you don't live anywhere. You just simply float amongst. Which sounds kind of nice. I asked how many houses he had, and he was like, well, legitimately, I only have three or something.

Are we talking about tax shelters? Are we talking about houses? Are we talking about investments? Are we talking about safe houses? Well, okay, so a little little and this is from Third Way. So Third Way did their survey, big centrist group. And they had this this report where they said to the conversation we were just having about the economy. They said a majority of voters, 53 percent, also worry that continued Democratic control of Congress will make inflation worse, while less than a quarter say the same about Republican control, and 56% say Democrats are not focused enough on the economy,

while only 36% say the same about their opponents. So 56%, actually, now that it comes up, or I'm sorry, 53% who are worried about whether a Democratic-controlled Congress will make inflation worse. And then you have, according to Third Way, 54% of people said that Republicans would do a better job handling the inflation and the economy. That number is not as high as maybe you would expect, actually. That's actually kind of an indicator that in some of these regional blue areas where there's a lot of built-in trust and support and muscle memory infrastructure-wise for Democrats, that we weren't going to see a tsunami. That actually, in retrospect, when we're looking at Shapiro winning, when we're looking at Spanberger winning,

those are indicators that we're not in a tsunami period. That kind of gets to it. Maybe that in these blue enclaves, people genuinely, that 44% of voters trust Democrats more. All of the data that is coming out is really just, it shows us that trying to base our priors on 2018, because 2018, the polls actually were quite off, 2020 and 2016, of course, it's difficult. And we have no choice but to come,

really, we have no choice but to come with the data and the biases of the modern history that we have. But in general, what we're seeing here is that I'm even looking at, Dems might actually gain a seat in this one district in Ohio, in Cincinnati. I'm looking at data that also, Dems might actually gain a seat in this one district in Ohio, in Cincinnati. Like I'm looking at data that also, yeah, there we go. Emily pulled this up

here from Nate Silver. In house races as toss-up or lean, Democrats are leading in 17 and Republicans only in seven. I mean, that is just simply not the scenario, which I think a lot of us expected. I think the takeaways from this are going to be really interesting. With the 73% there for John Fetterman, I mean, that is just stunning. Again, it's early. It will take at least a couple of days to actually find out what's going on. Maricopa County, as I alluded to earlier, Georgia actually remains right now in a total toss-up. They have 77% of the vote that is in there. Well, here's another new silver. In the pure toss-ups, Democrats are ahead in eight and the GOP in two.

A tsunami? That's not what you're looking at. Yeah, Marcy Kaptur. People wrote off Marcy Kaptur. But then the Republicans wrote off J.R. Majewski. He made up a bunch of stuff, right? Well, he was the guy who got Trump's endorsement by mowing Trump's face into his lawn. Oh, my God. Oh, yes. Remember this guy?

He won the primary. I thought that was Marshall. I thought Marshall did that. Maybe he doesn't have a lawn. Marshall's lawn service is that he goes and like. Or he has a lawn now. Mows in the candidate of your choice to try to get the endorsement. The only lawn in all of Brooklyn.

So it looks like, so 79% in and she's up by 8%. I mean. It looks like Capra is going to hold on. When I saw the first exit polls out that were like, voters said inflation was most important like 34 but abortion was kind of close on its heels i was like that is a different picture than we've been getting from these um polls especially pa leading up to now it's been like overwhelmingly inflation economy etc and abortion is like third on the list, not even second. And so when I saw that, I was like, hmm, then we got the Pennsylvania exit polls and voters there actually put abortion as

the number one issue, which in some ways makes sense. I mean, that might be another thing to parse in the days to come is the states where voters really felt that abortion rights were truly at stake. And I would say Pennsylvania is one of them. Michigan. Republicans have both the House and the Senate. If you end up with Mastriano as governor, they can do whatever they want. Yes. So they probably really, really felt like, oh, this issue is I can actually see how my vote is going to change what ultimately happens here. So that might be another dynamic sort of underpinning what happens, what happened here. Two key races in Pennsylvania on

that point. One is Allentown, Lehigh Valley. People are looking at Susan Wild as quite vulnerable. She's up by six points with 65 percent in. And then up in Scranton, which is a race that Emily and I covered on counterpoints a couple times, Matt Cartwright versus Jim Bognett. Matt Cartwright, one of the few actually populist Democrats, up by 10 points with 59% in against Jim Bognett. It's not over, but they've got him leading D here. How many votes, percentage of the votes? 59% of the vote in, and he's up by 20,000 votes. So, like, that's a hard... I think I just realized this, but we're all from swing states.

Ryan's PA, Crystal's Virginia, you're Texas, I'm Wisconsin. I don't know if Texas is a swing state. Not yet. Not yet. It's a future. That's a mean within a percent. Okay, it happened one time. It was like, yeah, yeah, yeah.

A future one-day swing state. I would say I would have said Virginia is a blue state now. That's true. Clearly it's not anymore. Listen, we never know. Okay, so Crystal, you and I, we're doing breaking points tomorrow morning. We're going to do a handoff here just in a little bit. What do you think we should sum up with?

Let's be clear. It's 10.49 p.m. on the East Coast. So as of right now. Standard time? At this moment. Standard time, baby. Standard as hell. I mean, here's what we know. The red tsunami did not happen. We know Republicans underperformed the fundamentals. There's just no doubt about that. And I do think it is a real indictment, in a sense, of the direction of the party, especially, I mean, abortion extremism has been there for a long time for the Republicans. But laying on top of that, like, I'm not going to accept the results of the elections.

I'm going to deny what happened in the last one. We're going to nominate the most fringe candidates we can possibly find. I don't think you can read these results, even if everything else sort of falls in the Republicans' direction, they end up doing better than they've done up to this point. I don't think you can read these results, given the fundamentals of this election, as anything but a rebuke of the direction of the Republican Party. I think you are correct. My takeaway from this is that it will, I still don't think, by the way, that even if the Dems do hold the Senate, I don't think it will diminish Trump's chances of completely holding onto the GOP and all of that.

Oh yeah. I do think this will increase discussion around Trump's hold on the GOP, given that he pushed Walker, given that he pushed Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, I don't know yet what's gonna happen with Blake Masters, with Carrie Lake, with Brian, well, sorry, with Dan Bolduc in New Hampshire. I have no idea. So let's be clear on all of those races. But if some of those lose or if the GOP only wins 51 seats and they don't

perform as well in the House, I do think it will give, Trump is going to have a tougher time consolidating or getting some of the GOP elite to bow to him. I'm not saying that this will lead in any way to some DeSantis, you know, DeSantis win or any of that, but it will be difficult to say this Republican governor who just blew out Florida, turned into a red state and won by 20 points in a way that you never could have. Outperformed you. Outperformed you dramatically by what, 16 points? 16 points, right? Trump won by 3.5. DeSantis is now up by 20. So 17 points there. 16.5, sorry for everybody who's out there. Who's the worst candidate, Charlie Crist or Joe Biden?

But see, this is going to be a tough one because Trump was planning on running in 2024 on the back of a red wave, on the expected red wave. Now, I still think he's going to run. I still think he will win the nomination, to be clear. But this will make it a little bit more interesting. We're going to have to see like what the copia wants to come up with. And I think it will make Mitch McConnell and all of them be willing to buck him much longer than they would have in the event of a red wave scenario. Yeah, that's all.

That's a very interesting and good point. Because, yeah, I mean, he's announcing next week. And the thought was, there's going to be a red tsunami. Tsunami. Tsunami. That's how you know it's time for me to exit. It's been four hours, folks. There's going to be a red tsunami. I'm going to take credit.

Now, you're taking credit for the, like, 12 House seats that they pick up and the maybe they get to 50 50 again in the senate it's not it's a less compelling picture i think that's right okay we do sorry we do have a gift bag for you oh what is it what do you got sean patrick maloney down by 10 points oh that's good all right i like that all right all right that's fun that's a uniter yeah that is yeah we're all cheering for that result. I hate that. I absolutely love that. Okay, guys, everybody stick around.

We're going to play the ads again just so we can all switch things up. Emily and Ryan, they're going to be here at the desk at least until midnight, longer if they need to. So we've got a lot of stuff for all of you, for the team. Before we go, I just want to remind everybody that the reason that we have Emily and Ryan and that they are part of our beautiful family here is because of you guys. You made CounterPoints possible. And I mean, you guys are doing such a phenomenal job.

I'm a genuine fan of the show. I don't miss an episode. The response we've gotten from everybody has just been overwhelmingly positive. Premium subscribers are over the moon about it. So thank you to you guys for making that happen. Reminder, there's a discount link in the description. At the top of the chat, too. Yes. Top of the chat in the description. This stuff, look, it costs a lot of money. Renting the studio. We've got the full crew. Ryan's hair gel. Ryan's hair. Emily and I are not cheap. Yeah. That's a

day-to-day expense that we have just in order to keep it looking just like that, everybody. So can you imagine? All right. So look, here's the deal. Now the election, we're nearing the end for that. So we have to gear up also for 2024. So if you enjoy this, we've got two years now to build so we can have an even better election live stream in that year. So to all of you who have helped us, it is just so we can't thank you all enough in order to make this possible. It's very nice to be at this desk and not over at the Hill desk for an election night. So you guys stick around. They will be here in our chairs in five minutes, and then they're going to continue on through the night.

Crystal and I will be back on for Breaking Points tomorrow morning for a full show. We'll try and get it out as early as possible just because we know how it works. I'm just going to sleep with my makeup on. That's my pro move. Maybe I won't shower. Nobody will be able to tell with all this. Okay, guys, we'll see you guys later. Love you guys. Have fun. Back in five. Stick around. Emily and Ryan are taking over the desk. Welcome back to the live streams. And Sagar's gone so we can talk about drugs now. Sagar's gone so we can talk about drugs. We're talking about in the sort of broader context

about how this hasn't been necessarily a tsunami. The evidence is not indicating what a lot of Republican and prognosticators sort of in the Beltway in general thought might happen over the last few days, that this could be a trouncing, a shellacking in the words of President Obama. What was that in 2010 or 2014? And a thumping. That's what George Bush called his 2006 loss, a thumping. And then Obama went with shell his 2006 loss. A thumping. And then Obama went with shellacking. Shellacking. All right. Well, Ryan, we've been covering, you know, a lot of these candidates, different races, but you're following the ballot referendums really closely. And by the way, before Ryan digs into the numbers, let's remember that the ballot referendums

actually are very relevant to what's happening with these candidates. Because if you have people showing up for abortion, let's say in a state like Michigan, where that's on the referendum, if you have people showing up for weed, for psychedelics, that makes a difference in some of these very close elections. And that's not a thing that a lot of legacy media folks factored into their predictions. What is it looking like right now? Because it's so hard to know who's going to come out and usually it is usually you can tell on the side of the intensity so if it's a psychedelic referendum for instance like in colorado there aren't many people who are like rabidly hostile to psychedelics and are like only going to vote so that they can vote against

psychedelics but you are going to have a handful of people who will hear that it's on the ballot and they'll come out. Now the numbers have gone way down. You want to check Boebert while I'm looking at this, by the way? Yeah, that's a great point. So Colorado Proposition 122, this is to decriminalize a bunch of different psychedelics. It's now up by six points. It was up a ton earlier. So that was probably because Boulder and Denver were coming in first, and now some of the rural areas are coming in. So it's not clear if this is going to actually help Boebert or not. But separate from that, it looks like it's still in strong shape, which is itself a good thing. I think the more that we can remove penalties around, around

psychedelics, the better, you know, the better world that this becomes. Like also, also like, as we're like facing this like dystopian future, we're like, we were talking earlier about people's views on the economy and whether or not, whether they thought Republicans would make it better, whether they thought Democrats would make it better. I think we're going to find going forward over the next decade or so that voters aren't going to think anybody's going to make anything better, that people feel that we're just on a glide path to doom. And the one bright spot is like at least bring psychedelics out of the shadows. It does depend on how these referendums are written. And there have been psychedelic referendums that I've seen, for instance,

here in D.C. that people may be favorable to until you kind of read the referendum and you're like, there was a better way to write that. There was a more consensus way to write that. That said, Ryan, you pulled some really interesting numbers about what happened in Kentucky with their abortion referendum. Oh, yeah. And let yeah. And let's just quickly get into it. How are they holding up? I haven't checked that. Oh, how's Boebert? You checked that.

Let me update everyone on Boebert. Boebert is, Lauren Boebert, we flagged this over the course of the last hour because CBS News actually flagged it and said, we could have an upset brewing in Colorado's third district. And indeed, that is continuing. We're seeing a really, I think, shocking. I mean, it's not shocking, I guess, in terms of candidate quality, but shocking in terms of that it was on absolutely nobody's radar. Nobody's radar on the right. Nobody's radar on

the center. Maybe nobody's radar on the left. Adam Frisch, the Democratic candidate, is up by, so he's up 51.8% to Boebert, Lauren Boebert, who's at 48.2%. That's what 71% of votes counted. That's a big deal because again, there was this idea that we were going into a tsunami, which by the way, I'll freely admit, I thought it was a possibility. It's not a prediction I would have ever written in stone, but I thought it was a possibility that we might have been looking at over the last few days, given where some of these numbers were trending. And again, it could still be a very good night for Republicans. We don't totally know yet. It is falling short of those fantasy predictions. There's no question about it. And I think Boebert being down in the polls, she's a very, very maggot candidate, as many people know, to say the very least. It's getting into territory where it's looking like this night

might be a win for Mitch McConnell and a loss for Donald Trump. Yeah. And could also be a loss for Oz. And apparently we have a live update from Oz. Do we have him ready? Excellent. Welcome back. We weren't on the first time. We were in the control room watching your update, Lewis. So what was the mood like at the beginning of the night, and what's the mood like now? Yeah, thanks for having me back on, guys. Good to see you all.

Yeah, the mood in the room has definitely shifted a little bit more negative. The first real mood shift was when Fox News, which is actually playing on the big screens back here behind me, if you can't hear them, when Fox News called the governor's race for Shapiro, there were definitely some audible groans in size throughout the room. Yeah, definitely a vibe shift when that happened. Otherwise, folks are still watching.

There's still some optimism that the Bulls might turn around, but at this stage in the game, I'm definitely surprised to see Betterman still with the lead here as more and more results are coming through. Wasn't what I was predicting. You know, yeah, but the mood shift has definitely happened quite a bit. If you're just joining us now, we're with Louis D'Angelo, who is at Dr. Oz's victory party. We'll see if it actually is a victory party.

Louis, I'm curious if there's a lot of excitement. You know, you cover these things, you go to different places. Do you sense that there's excitement particularly for Dr. Oz? You know, if you go to a Trump rally, it's not as though there's all of this excitement for the Republican Party. If you're at a Bernie rally, it's not as though there's tons of excitement for the Democratic Party. Is there a particular sense of excitement for Dr. Oz as a candidate? This man is a massive television star for years and years and years. But are people behind him personally or are they

sort of anti-Federman, anti-Dem? I think kind of on both sides of this. I haven't heard that many folks excited, excited about either candidate. I kind of talked a little bit about this earlier. You know, when we were at the Trump event on Saturday night and I was talking to folks there and the first five or six people I talked to, they said they were going to be voting for Oz, but they weren't that excited about it. For a lot of those folks, Oz was not their first choice. The same thing goes for Vetterman, though, and one anecdote that I definitely want to share is that this is more so with Vetterman voters and folks at those events. like I mentioned, they weren't super excited about him.

But when I ask people, what's your number one issue, despite what a lot of the polling has kind of been saying over the last couple of weeks, a lot of people's number one issue is still abortion, especially with Democrat voters. And, you know, I personally, similarly to what you all have said in the past, thought that inflation was number one on all sorts of this stuff. But abortion seems to potentially be playing a bigger role in all of this than we initially thought it might. Interesting. I see you're in the press area over there. Have you talked to other reporters? What's the reporter's conventional wisdom

as they're watching the numbers come in? Surprised. Yeah, we're all kind of in there. We were all surprised to see first the, you know, we're not surprised to see Shapiro having won that race, but having it be as larger of a margin as it is and how quickly it's being called. And again, surprised that Betterman is still up right now. I mean, I didn't envision, and a lot of the folks that I've been chatting with didn't envision a scenario where Oz wasn't up at this point.

And then as the mail-in ballots start to come in, you know, Betterment slowly tips away at the lead, tips away at the lead, like we saw with, you know, the election with President Trump and Biden in 2020. I just, again, I don't think any of us were really envisioning the scenario where the Betterment camp was in the position that it is And the Oz campaign is down at the moment I am hearing some cheers behind me I'm not sure what exactly that is Silser says too early to call, okay So no real news there, but you know how it goes, I don't know Yeah

Well, yeah, and let's, I mean, maybe it's splitting hairs But you've been there sort of gauging everybody's temperature. Is there cautious, you said this a little bit earlier, but if we can just keep pulling at that thread, is it a sense of cautious optimism? Because in truth, you know, I think, I think it is surprising to, I think it's probably surprising to me that it's as close as it is right now in the night, but that doesn't mean it's over. It certainly doesn't mean it's over. It could go one of two ways, obviously. So what is the, do people still feel okay? Is everybody depressed or are they like, all right, well, we're just going to be here longer than we thought we would? You know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't say

depressed yet. Yes, I agree. I think it's more of a, I think we're going to be here longer than we thought, but definitely concerned in the eyes, if you will. Um, yeah, it's, uh, yeah, it's, it's, it's less, less excitement than I thought was going to be going on if, uh, if you will. Any good anecdotes of interactions with, uh, with Oz voters you can share? Yeah, for sure. Um, I talked a little bit about this one earlier. But first, I met a bunch of different folks who were Oz voters, but they were also Shapiro voters. A couple of volunteers for the Oz campaign that I spoke with earlier. Obviously, like when folks who are out canvassing and whatnot, usually the parties work together. And if you're putting out signs for one candidate, you might also be doing it for the other.

And a lot of the Oz volunteers were telling me that they weren't necessarily excited about putting Mastriano signs out as well, and they don't necessarily support him. They think he goes a little bit too far on issues like abortion. They think he goes a little too far on some of the certifying of the election comments that he's made in the past. So that was an interesting anecdote. Another interesting thing that happened in the room, and I want to shout out one of these people. After I was on the first time, a Breaking Points premium member from the crowd in here came out and found me. Her name is Samantha. I told her I would shout her out. So if she's still listening,

jump search, she'll probably pop back over. And then actually an Oz staff person came over, and the Oz staff member was listening to Breaking Points in his ear, and came and found me as well, which is pretty cool, I gotta say. That's awesome! What kind of

swag do you have that shows that you're like Breaking Points? I actually don't have any Breaking Points swag with me. Maybe you guys can hook it uh breaking points i i actually don't have any uh breaking point swag with me maybe you guys can hook it up for next time i don't know happy to yeah happy to well counterpoints we'll hook you up with counterpoints yes crystal and soccer did not offer me that earlier so you guys uh we'll do the counterpoint stuff. Excellent. So she just saw you and the staffer heard you?

So that's how they knew you were? Yeah, they saw me. They saw it and they came and found me in the press area. The press are very much weaseled into a tiny little cooped up area. We don't have much space to move around. So, yeah. If folks are interested, I can try to, and I'll let you guys get back to it. I can give a quick little, we'll see if it works. If it doesn't, feel free to pull away. Yeah, give it a shot. If viewers are interested, I can try to, and I'll let you guys get back to it. I can give a quick little, we'll see if it works.

If it doesn't, feel free to pull away. Yeah, give it a shot. If viewers are interested. Yeah, yeah. We'll try to give people a little bit of an idea. Yes, it's actually at an athletic club. I think like a country club type vibe, but without the little bit of the room here. On the other side of all the cameras there is a little area where we've got

our laptops and whatnot set up. But I will say I do think that we're probably the only real independent outlet here, which is pretty awesome as well. Mostly just the big guys are here, local TV stations and whatnot. But definitely not seeing any other independent outlets.

Well, Lewis, we'll try to get back to you later. Go ask folks there what the hell happened, how their man couldn't sell this. He's been able to sell all sorts of things to anybody, but he couldn't sell this. Well, we don't know. He may come back. We really don't know. And by the way, we might not have really confidence in these results for the next few days because they're having a lot of issues counting in Philadelphia based on different cases and reconciliation and dated ballots and all that good stuff. Lewis, thank you so much. That was fantastic. We really appreciate it. Yeah, thanks for having me, guys.

Awesome. All right. New York Times still has him up by 50,000 votes, and New York Times is slower, so you might have some Fetterman up by 50,000 votes. Fetterman up by 50,000 votes. That's not a small gap at this point. Like, that's 71% in, 50,000 up. You'd rather be Fetterman.

You'd absolutely rather be Fetterman. Yeah, and especially with the remaining. I mean, this is your home turf point, literally. Yeah. You got the Philadelphia suburbs. You got, yeah. And they're still counting. So Philadelphia, do they count mail-in ballots later? Yes. So that's what I thought. That's a big advantage. Yes. And it's because there was a lawsuit that like banned them from counting them earlier by Republicans. And so they're moving them through now, but that's why it's taking longer. So if you hear anybody complaining that Philadelphia takes so long, it's because Republicans sued them and stopped them from counting them earlier in the way that other counties are allowed to do. So, yes, so you would – if you were Fetterman and you were down by 50,000, you might be thinking like, hey, I still have some hope.

I'm probably going to lose, but I have a hope. Fetterman being up by 50,000 at this point, I think he's feeling pretty good. But like you said, the suburbs how how the suburbs come in and how the culture wars, you know, shake out. We're going to talk. We'll talk to Terry Schilling, who's been, you know, waging the culture war all over the country in this in this campaign. It's probably disappointed that that at these results so far. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, a lot of that was a lot of those efforts. And we'll ask Terry. I think he spent about 15 million dollars on ads, I don't know. I mean, a lot of that was a lot of those efforts. And we'll ask Terry. I think he spent about 15 million dollars on ads, if I'm correct. And a lot of that used to be a lot of money. Yeah. A lot of that was in Arizona. And we just don't know what's happening

in Arizona. We don't know what's happening with Catherine Cortez Masto. These are some big places. I mean, Oregon is another place where you haven't had a governor that's Republican since the 1980s. We've no idea what's happening in that race. But what we do have are indicators, for instance, from Virginia 7. That's Crystal's district, where Abigail Spanberger seems to have eked out that win. It's been called. She's eked out that win. And that was supposed to be one of the bellwether districts that not just for a tsunami, but just for a red wave. So a red wave would have been if Yesley Vargo wins Virginia 07 Republican, just knocks out the incumbent Abigail Spanberger. It is a different district. But if that were the case, then people said, all right, then we can look at Jennifer Wexton. Then we can look at Virginia 10. If she loses, then we're in for a tsunami. And that hasn't been the case. One thing that I

think is important to start teasing out here, though, and this is kind of the big story in the legacy media right now, and I think genuinely sort of across the board, because the narrative going into this was momentum is building for Republicans, momentum is building for Republicans. Momentum is building for Republicans. But at the same time, there was a lot of coverage over the course of the summer about how there were going to be shocking Democratic upsets, whether it's Val Demings toppling Marco Rubio, whether it's like that was like a big J.D. Vance losing. J.D. Vance has been called for J.D. Vance as far as we know. J.D. Vance is going to handle that. Vance has been called for J.D. Vance as far as we know. J.D. Vance is going to handle that. He's up by 10. He's going to handle that easily. I think what we're potentially looking at here are sort of spotty tsunamis. And that's just the numbers, because one of the

districts we've zeroed in on is Florida 27. Florida 27, and I hate to sound like a broken record, but if you're just tuning in here now, that's a district that Donald Trump eked out a win in. If you look at the Daily Coast tabulations, which they do a really helpful thing, they put out a full spreadsheet so you can see how the new redrawn districts that people are voting in tonight would have voted in 2020. Just barely, by like 1%, you get a win for Donald Trump in that district. Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican, looks to have taken that by double digits. And that's going to be thanks in

part to the Cuban vote, to the Hispanic vote. The Cuban vote is a very specific kind of vote. The Hispanic vote more broadly is not a monolith. But that is really, really interesting. And again, in Florida, we just see Ron DeSantis outperforming Donald Trump. We see Marco Rubio doing better than people expected him to. And where we're going to continue looking is Texas. If we see in the Rio Grande Valley numbers like that from Ira Flores on the 34th, these are going to be where you see not the across the board tsunami, but you do see Republicans walking away from tonight, potentially, we don't know yet,

with the sense that the realignment when it comes to Hispanic voters, maybe if we're zooming into Milwaukee and Philadelphia over the next few days, maybe Democrats lose some enthusiasm, lose some support in the black vote. We don't know. But that's very much still on the table,

especially given some of the results that are already in. So to just sort of to poke a little bit of a hole in that broader narrative, and I'm not just saying this because I'm conservative. I'm saying this because I do think it's worth pushing back a little bit on the narrative that's congealing. At the same time, though, that top line very much is the case. It's very clear that top line is that the tsunami fantasy that Republicans had been sort of gloating about, I would say, in the last few days. And I really thought it was a probability or a possibility, not a probability, but a possibility. That's not going to pan out. Although if you're going to poke

a hole, does this patch the hole back up? up we got 1.3 million votes counted in arizona no because only 40 percent in so 40 percent in 47 47 looking at the arizona katie hobbs being up over kerry lake yeah so she's up that's i i would not expect that though i mean so so you've got – so in Arizona you have the northeastern Apache County, which is Republican, not reporting anything at all yet. You have Navajo County only reporting half, although that's fairly split. But the big – I don't know. I mean you would expect Carrie Lake to be doing better than this if she was going to win at this point. So compared to, so she's down 57-43 compared to Mark Kelly, who's up 58-40. Oh, no, sorry, not 58-40. That's in one county.

Not what people were expecting. I think it's tough to say with 47 percent in, but those numbers will change in the very, very near future. Yeah, it is 58-40 right now. Right, yeah. So those numbers can change a lot. One point, and then, do we have anything in on Texas yet? Because one point. Oh, here numbers are starting to come in. Yes. One point on Miami and South Florida. It's such an unusual place. And when Obama was elected, there was this sense that the next generation of Cubans were going to move democratic and this was going to

become a city that basically voted in the same way that a lot of other cities did eventually. Right. As the kind of hostility to Democrats died out. Hostility, which is literally still rooted in hostility towards JFK for his betrayal during the Bay of Pigs. Like that's. Yeah, but Miami Cubans support the embargo. Right, right. But not the children of those Cubans. So, but a ton of them moved away.

And then you also had this mass influx of rich right-wing Venezuelans, Colombians, South Americans, Mexicans across the board. So Miami went from a place that was very Cuban-American dominated to now being a place where basically people with right-wing politics already and wealth from South and Central America are heading. I think it is reshaping the entire politics of South Florida combined with ahaping the entire politics of South Florida, combined with a Trumpification of the entire state. But also maybe reshaping the politics of Southeastern Texas. And that is, and perhaps we'll see some of it. So let's roll through some

of those. So Maya Flores, that's one we were looking at, right? Yeah, Mayra Flores, Texas 34. So she's down by 10,000 votes with 67% in. That's super interesting because that's, again, a tsunami would have been Myra Flores comfortable, comfortable. And she, by the way, down 11, 11% against Vicente Gonzalez. She is a very good candidate from the perspective of Republicans, from the perspective of, of me. I mean, as a conservative journalist, I've, I've talked to her. I think she's a good candidate. We don't know what happens there. Looks like Michelle Vallejo is going to lose. That's a big... To Monica de la Cruz, she's down by 11 points with 77% of the vote in. So this is roughly the same. Now there a 10% more in 15 here. So now Henry Cuellar cruising. Despite being a subject of an...

If that's a tsunami, Cuellar loses. Right. So he's up by 12 points. He's up by 14,000 votes. Greg Kassar, squad member, incoming squad member. He was obviously always going to win. He's up by 50 points. This is an Austin guy.

Let's see who else. Joaquin Castro. Oh, here. Tony Gonzalez winning comfortably. Republican Tony Gonzalez. What other? So the Mayra Flores, you said they were like, what, 50-something percent in in Texas 34? 67 percent in.

67 percent. And she's down by 11 percentage points and 10,000 votes. So they redrew that district. But that's, again, Republicans felt very good about that race. Right. They loved Myra Flores. She became like a celebrity. She's our counter to AOC.

And again, she's a good candidate. She could come back and win, but it's not looking good for her right now. Well, and it's certainly not an easy, comfortable win either way. And that's, and again, we're looking at Lauren Boebert. How's Boebert looking? So like, let's just be clear. Boebert's at 48 percent. Yeah. OK, so it's still the last time we said it was at 71 percent reporting. Frisch is at 51.9. Boebert's at 48.1. This is not a race that was on anybody's radar. But let's continue on and just say we had over the summer expectations. I mean, Ron Johnson is going to win. There was a an expectation that perhaps Ron Johnson wasn't going to win. It looks like right now Ron Johnson is going to win. He's going to be. I thought he would win by eight or 10. You did. Yeah. He's he's only up by a couple at this point. Right. He might still end up. It's early. Yeah. Yeah. Although I imagine the votes in Milwaukee are still outstanding.

But so that was there was this idea that Ron Johnson probably wasn't going to pull it out. There was real chatter that Marco Rub probably wasn't going to pull it out. There was real chatter that Marco Rubio might lose. That sounds ridiculous. But there was real chatter that J.D. Vance might lose. J.D. Vance has won. So it is the case that we've seen some counter-narrative Republican victories here and that Republicans that were sort of counted out over the course of the summer have been able to hang on. And so that's why I do think there's a little bit of air being let out of the balloon right now,

a lot of air probably for Republicans. If you lose Mayra Flores, if you lose, I mean, they lost to Shapiro in Pennsylvania. If you're losing New Hampshire, they did lose New Hampshire. That's been called for Maggie Hassett. These were the fantasy things that seemed in reach. That's letting air out of the balloon. There's no question about it. Same thing or same story, though, in Florida, on the flip side, this is big stuff. In Ohio, that's a big win for J.D. Vance, especially when Mitch McConnell didn't want J.D. Vance to do anything. So from the perspective of the sort of right more broadly, I don't think they're depressed right now. I should check in with some sources while we're talking here and see what the

mood is. I don't think they're depressed, but I do think there's deflation, I imagine. Another one that people were watching, Democrats were watching closely, Johanna Hayes, who represents a swing district in Connecticut, and she's been a super progressive in her voting record. And she was famously, she was, I think, teacher of the year in 2015, 2016, grew up in a housing project in this very rich district, now represents the district, had always said, look, I'm going to say what I believe. If I'm a one-term member of Congress, that's what it is. She now looks like she's on her way to her third term. She's up. I mean, she's only up by four points with 40 percent in. But if it were that kind of red wave year, she'd be down right now and people would be stressing that, oh, wow, like Johanna, he's out. What about Michigan? So Michigan and do we have

Terry ready? Let's see. He's almost ready. But Michigan's another good example. That's a fantasy. That's a fantasy win for Republicans that it felt like we're at their fingertips. They were going to knock out Gretchen Whitmer because of COVID. It's something we haven't even talked about on the broadcast so far. That is certainly front and center in a lot of voters' minds, school lockdowns. Gretchen Whitmer has really tried to pretend that her legacy of school lockdowns isn't what it is and isn't what it was, and it looks like she's going to pull this out. So interestingly, Alyssa Slotkin, so the Times lists her down by 12 points, but they still list it leaning D, which means there must be a lot of Democratic areas still out. But she has by no means, you know, put that one away. Alyssa Slotkin

is one of the, you know, key Democrats that they're trying to knock out. Hillary Scholten is still leaning D, up 52-45 against John Gibbs. John Gibbs was the one that Democrats put a bunch of money in behind, right? That was one of their plays where they're like, we're going to go elect an unelectable right winger and then ha ha ha we'll own the Republicans that way. They did that with Bolduc in New Hampshire. Was Gibbs the one that beat the moderate Republican that everybody hates? I don't know. Well, so we have actually, Terry, here.

On last week's CounterPoints. We played some ads. Specifically, I think we focused and played this ad from Nevada against Catherine Cortez Masto that was produced by the American Principles Project. And we have Terry Schilling here with us now from the American Principles Project. Terry, welcome to CounterPoints. We're excited to have you here on election night. Hey, thanks so much for having me, Emily and Ryan. It's really great to be here. So you've got an American Principles Project has a decent chunk of change on the line tonight.

I think you guys have spent $15 million. Is that just in ads, Terry? No, that's a portion of that's been in ads and direct voter contact. But that's our total spend for the cycle, counting 2021 and 2022. But, you know, it's really interesting because while we spent, you know, that much in this cycle, the economic groups and the crime groups and all that, the vast majority of spending has been on those top issues. It's really interesting. We have a long

night ahead of us. We still have a lot more results to see. We still have Arizona to come in and Nevada. But, you know, it's it's looking like it's not such a big red wave as a lot of people predicted. Yeah, that's what we wanted to ask you about. Yeah. Talk us through Arizona here, because what what's your understanding of what's in so far and what's still outstanding when it comes to both the Cary Lake race and the Lake Masters Mark Kelly race? Let me pull it up real quick. I was going through it before I was talking with you guys. So it looks like, you know, about half the votes are counted. Lake is still she's under about 13 points with 54% to go.

Look, we still have a lot to still count. And, you know, we'll see what happens. But we don't know. We don't know exactly what happened here. It's obviously not great for Republicans. I know that we were really hoping for a much bigger night here. But we'll see. The good thing about elections is that they're clarifying, right?

It's a moment where you get to see where the American people actually are. They cast their votes. They tell you what they want, who they don't want in office, and you have to reassess things. And ultimately, we had a really big winner tonight, and I think that that's Ron DeSantis. He won Florida, as it stands right now, by 20 points. That's a big deal. And so we have to ask ourselves, why did Ron DeSantis win in Florida, which he barely won in 2018, right? He won it by, I think, less than a percentage point in 2018, but now he's won by 20 points.

Why did that happen, And why are Republicans now still floundering? I would argue that Republicans still lack a real message, a real vision that they presented the American people. It was an anti-Biden message. It was an anti-progressive message, but it was not an inspirational message. They did not cast a bold vision that showed Americans where they wanted to take the country. And ultimately, I think until they give that vision where they want to take the country, voters are going to not be motivated to vote for them. And I want to talk to you about Nevada, Terry, because you spent a bit there. But before we get to that, I actually want to tease

out maybe this distinction that's interesting, because going into this for the last week or so, the legacy media was talking a lot about, and we talked about it, frankly, about how Democrats had not sort of come to the right argument when it comes to the economy. They did not spend as much on all of these other issues as they did on abortion, all of the other issues combined. Yes, they spent enough ad money on to overcome how much they spent on abortion, but they spent way more on abortion than any other single issue. Now, I think there's an argument that was about turnout, but people like to talk about how Democrats this election were obsessed with the culture war and that hurt them. I actually don't know that that's going to be the case because midterm elections are about turnout and abortions can motivate the Democratic base. On the flip side, Terry, tell us about the culture

war type ads that you guys at American Principles Project have been running because I think personally, there's sort of the smart approach, the smart conservative approach to some of these big questions that frankly, you know, the RNC itself should have been on top of 10 years ago, let alone five years ago, and you guys are running on now. What are some of the issues that you guys highlighted? And do you still feel like they could be really consequential as the numbers come in? Yeah. So look, the big things that we focused on was protecting children, right? Protecting children from gender transitions that are being pushed on

them by big pharmaceutical companies and transgender activists, but also protecting children from being sexualized by pornographic material in schools like the book Genderqueer, which is a graphic novel that depicts sex between minors, among other things. And it freaked out the parents in Dearborn, Michigan. Even CARE got behind some of those parents that were overwhelmingly Muslim in Dearborn, Michigan. And again, CARE is not a typically conservative organization on politics, American politics. But sorry, Terry, I interrupted you. No, no, no, it's okay. You made a very good point. I think it's important to remember that just a year ago, right, in Virginia in 2021,

when the election was about parental rights and education, which that is what that election was about, we won handily, right? But then when Republicans juked that message and for the large part gave up on it and didn't really campaign on it, instead focused on Joe Biden's inflation, Joe Biden's economy, the crime sprees that are going across the country, that's when they began to lose. And so we focused on issues that we knew that Americans were in support of a Republican or a conservative message on, which is protecting kids from pornography in their own schools, from being sexualized, from being groomed, and also from exploitative sex change procedures that, you know,

doctors and surgeons and pharmaceutical companies are making lots of money off of our kids off of. So, you know, those were winning issues. We produce ads with experts like Miriam Grossman, who's a pediatric psychiatrist that's been doing this for decades. We told stories from a mother in California, Abby Martinez, who lost her daughter to transgenderism, right? Had the daughter ripped from the home. The daughter ended up going on to cross-sex hormones while in foster care.

And then shortly after that took her life. We were telling persuasive stories on issues that we knew the American people were way in a disagreement with the democratic policies. It was really tough to get Republicans on side with these. But what we're seeing is, is that the Republicans who really went on offense on these issues, like J.D. Vance, like Ron DeSantis, they're winning their elections handily. They're getting called very early. And the ones that didn't, that didn't go on offense, they're the ones that are behind right now. Do you, you know, why, why do you think, you know,

if you think that message resonated, do you think that Blake Masters didn't do enough of that? Do you think Kerry Lake didn't do enough of that? Do you think Balduke didn't do enough of it? Yeah, no. Oz? Yeah, no, Oz definitely shied away from all of the social issues, right? I think that Oz was an exceptionally poor candidate in Pennsylvania. I think if you had any other candidate in that race, it would have been locked up at the moment that that debate happened with John Fetterman,

where it was clear that he has suffered severe brain trauma and brain damage. But Boldwag did not go into or lean into the social issues. Look, we still have to see the results come in fully from Arizona. That race isn't over yet. And we obviously know that there were major problems with delays and problems with the election machines and how they were being counted. So look, we saw the weight there. But at the end of the day, Ron DeSantis, I think, is the big winner today. I mean, he's the one that stands out as the biggest winner, not just by like my own judgment, but literally by the margins that he's won his race by. He governed very boldly.

He was very clear about what he wanted to do and where he wanted to take Floridians. And I think ultimately that's the big message is that if you want to win your campaigns and elections, you have to be very clear with what you're going to do while in office. And I think that of all the candidates that were running the cycle, Ron DeSantis was the most clear and painted the biggest vision and the clearest vision for what he was going to do for voters. So, Terry, before we let you go, as of right now, I imagine you've been monitoring the race in Nevada. I mean, I know you've been monitoring the race in Nevada because you have money on the line there. But what can people expect?

There was this potential Republican fantasy that Catherine Cortez Masto might go down. And that's that has not been ruled out as of right now. What are you looking at in Nevada? And, you know, what were you looking at over the course of the past week as well? Well, obviously, Clark County is the most important part of that state. It's where the vast majority of the population, the vast majority of voters live. It's going to come down to where the early vote was and what the turnout was with that and then what election day turnout was.

All day long, I was paying attention to John Ralston and what he was reporting from what he was seeing as election day turnout. And frankly, he was pretty dire about this. But ultimately, I think where this all comes down to is Democrats really have built a turnout machine. Whether you like it or not, they do know how to turn out their voters and get them to the polls. And I don't think Republicans have built anything close to what

the Democrats have built. And apparently it's effective and it's a very, very instrumental in staving off losses. Even the thing that's frustrating for me is you have all of these dynamics in a midterm cycle, right? You have literally a senile president who can't put two sentences together. You have record high inflation. The economy is terrible. 401ks and our stock, our portfolios are all down. Things aren't that great in this country.

How the hell did Republicans manage to not get a massive Republican wave? I don't know. I think ultimately they didn't cast a big vision, but I also don't think that they've built any type of machine that's competitive with what the Democrats have built. So look, ultimately, like I said earlier, this is a clarification moment for the Republican Party, for America, where this nation stands. And we're going to have to reassess things going forward. But we have a long night ahead of us for sure.

Terry, last question. Do you think that maybe raging the culture war actually backfired on Republicans this time. And that, that if to your point that the economy is what people are actually interested in, that they don't, they don't want to actually hear, you know, about all this, the, the culture war stuff. You know, I, I, I disagree with that. I don't think that, you know, opposing sex changes for minors or opposing giving children pornography in schools is going to create any type of backlash. It's just, it doesn't make any sense. And frankly, if that is the case, if opposing those two issues is going to cause you to lose elections, then America is not salvageable in a lot of ways, right? I mean, like you have a

nation where little children are being given, you know, being sexualized in schools and being given sex changes. Like how are those people going to to grow vote going up? They're definitely not going to be voting for tax cuts for billionaires and major corporations in the future. I'll tell you that. But ultimately, I think that what this is, it's a lack of leadership in the Republican Party. I think, you know, Kevin McCarthy, right, in the last few weeks of the election, what's he talking about? Entitlement reform. That was not what this election was about. He put gasoline on the fire, right? So we're talking about, you know, entitlement reform. We're talking about cutting spending. I get it. But the economy was on the line. Afflation was on the line. You had to have a real policy proposal that would address

the major concerns of the American people. And I just don't think Republicans met those, those concerns. They just thought that they would be good enough and, and, and, and perform well enough just by saying that they weren't Joe Biden. That's obviously not the case. Well, Terry, thanks. Thanks for your time. Appreciate it. Go back to a couple more, a couple more updates. Appreciate it, Terry. Terry Shulman of the American Personals Project. Thank you so much. Thank you so much, Terry. Yep. So there was some hope. Republicans had some hope that Paula Page might be competitive.

Yeah. He's behind Janet Mills by nine points. Right now only 58% in. So not over yet, but it's not panning out the way. Also, Terry, the substance aside, when Terry was saying that maybe the country is not salvageable, that actually felt, that sounded to me like the way that some progressives sound when elections don't go their way. Well, yeah. Which is a real sign of how frustrating and how disappointing this is to someone on the right. Well, and I think that's the real—

It's like, ah, we're done with this. I'm going to Canada. So Terry is like a grassroots conservative activist that most of the legacy media will not talk to. And if they do, it's as a freak show. But as somebody who's actually very influential, has put a lot of money into these Republican races in swing states like Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, where Ron Johnson's actually doing all right as of right now. And so it's important, I think, to gauge the temperature of folks that are putting their money right there, because that's, I think, a pretty good indicator of what a J.D. Vance would be looking at on an agenda come January, what the battle for Mitch McConnell versus Rick Scott looks like come January and what happens with Blake Masters. We saw Terry was wearing a Blake Masters t-shirt, has definitely

been involved in that race. And Republicans really thought that taking offense, Carrie Lake multiple times said, you know, when reporters would ask her about abortions, she said, no, no, you need to ask Democrats this question about what restrictions they support on abortion. And Republicans had a lot of, I don't know what the right word is, enthusiasm or optimism that some of these candidates who were flipping the script in maybe a Trumpian way and were willing to lean in to the culture war in a way that Glenn Youngkin pulled off last year in Virginia, that that would be the key to a tsunami, not just to

a good night, but to a tsunami. And so I think what we're getting from that interview is that the right's grassroots, and Terry's a good gauge of that, the right's grassroots is going to want more. They're going to want pedal to the metal as opposed to saying like the Republican autopsy in 2012, which was let's back off. Let's back off of all of these social and cultural issues. This was the Reince Priebus RNC put out the 2012 autopsy after Mitt Romney lost and said we will never be winning Hispanic voters if we continue on this track. We will never be winning. The sort of emerging Democratic this track. We will never be winning the sort of emerging Democratic coalition is going to be straight in one direction. But that, you know, it seems like what we're seeing is not more of that, but the opposite from the conservative

grassroots. Yeah. And instead in Kansas right now, Laura Kelly, the Democrat, is ahead in her reelection bid with 88 percent of the votes in. She's up by four, well, 4.2 points. She was considered to be someone who had a shot, a good shot at reelection. It wouldn't be a total shock that she wins. But for people who are from outside of kansas they went wait a minute a democrat is winning a re-election in in kansas thought this was going to be a thought there's going to be a red wave gretchen gretchen whitmer uh still up at this point by 3.4 points with 40 40 percent in um 40 percent yeah 40 percent so that that has narrowed a good bit.

What was she up before? So you're Wayne. Wayne County has eight percent in Wayne County only has eight percent in this point. So, no, that's that's a. So Gretchen Whitmer was a and is, I think, continues to be a real like if we're in a tsunami, that's a good pickup for Republicans, because Tudor Dixon, from their perspective, ran a good campaign, especially in the home stretch. And Gretchen Whitmer, I think, is a bad candidate. I think she really botched her covid response. I think she's been similar to Kathy Hochul in being dismissive of parents concerns and the same way that Hochul has been dismissive of concerns about crime. But she's still up right now. There are a lot of votes that are remaining. Right. Hochul was 77 percent in, still up by nine points. Tough to see how Zeldin makes that up. Another republic republicans were going for was in new mexico michelle luhan grisham was seen as vulnerable like they thought that maybe they

could knock her knock her out in a in a real red wave with uh how many we got in about half a million votes in 70 of the votes counted she's up by about seven points so far could still lose but again like this is where democrats would prefer to be rather than hoping that they can come back all right we're getting some numbers from oregon yes uh this is this is the race where uh betsy johnson who is the independent democrat bankrolled by the Nike CEO. What a political system. Right. It's just wonderful. Like Betsy Johnson. By the way, Nike itself bankrolled by China. Yeah. And so Betsy Johnson herself, if she decides to run as a third party candidate, it's free country, do what you want. She's going to get one or two percent. But then

a billionaire is like, you know what? I think this would be funny. And just bankrolls her entire campaign and becomes a credible one. She's doing worse so far, at least, than Republicans had hoped. She's at 9% of the vote. But a very close race with fewer than half the votes and just under half the votes in. You have the Democrat over the Republican by one point. This is one that I think Republicans, correct me if I'm wrong here, would really love to win to show that like Antifa and the wokesters out in Oregon really got their comeuppance. Yeah. I mean, and let's look at this.

Right now, the Oregon governor's race, it's another one like Gretchen Whitmer, but way even more dramatic than Gretchen Whitmer that Republicans said, if these polls are correct, because there was a shocking level of closeness between Kotak and Drazen in the remaining days of the race for Oregon's governorship. Right now, with 47 days of the race for Oregon's governorship. Right now,

with 47 percent of the votes in, Oregon has not had a Republican governor, mind you, since the 1980s. That's 45.5 percent to 44.6 percent. So that's within a percentage point in freaking Oregon. And we don't know if that stands. I think it's very possible Drazen ends up losing that by a few points. And if that's the case, I mean, I think Republicans will still feel OK about it. But if Drazen pulls that off, whatever happens in Pennsylvania gets sort of counterbalanced by that. And the downstream implications for that are, well, then what happens to Mitch McConnell? And do you then need to listen more to the Terry Shillings of the world? Do you need to listen less? This becomes a question. Is there a real pickup opportunity from Democrats if you have the right candidate?

And I don't know. I don't have a good answer to that. But in Oregon, it's still not clear cut. And there's no universe in which we should be saying in Oregon, it still isn't clear cut at this point. And so we'll see. Again, I think it's still possible that that Jason loses probably more likely than not. We don't know. It's hard to say. But I think that's worth looking at. Back in the Senate with Fetterman and Oz, Fetterman, with more than 95 percent of the votes in Erie County, has beaten Dr. Oz up there, 53 to 44. What's that tell you? I mean, this shouldn't necessarily, this shouldn't be democratic country. This is the very northwest tip of the state. This is a very rural area.

Per Trump area. Let's see. How did Trump vote Erie County? Because I think that's the real story here is, is if Oz is dramatically underperforming Trump, um, you're getting a good kind of answer to that question, because again, you look at DeSantis overperforming Trump. Um, but so far there's no real clear cut narrative about some of those other candidates. J.D. Vance did fairly well. But did Erie County go for Biden? It looks like this was a Clinton to Trump hole, I'm going to say.

So the other thing I'll say is Wisconsin right now. So the final unofficial results, Biden 68,000, Trump 66,000. So it's very, very tight. And Trump had beaten Hillary in 2016 in Erie County. But now you have Fetterman winning this by 12,000. So listen to this. All right. This is from Vox. And I want to pick up on something that Crystal said last hour, which was really I thought it was really interesting about. And you were talking about this as well, just sort of whether Republicans and we read the third way data about how Republicans were generally more trusted on the economy and inflation than Democrats. And most people are saying that they think if Democrats control Congress, inflation will get worse. That's from the Third Way survey that came

out in the last week. Here from Vox. Republicans have spent $157 million on crime-related ads at the national level, compared to $105 million on the economy and inflation, according to data from the ad analysis firm Impact, Ad Impact. So that's $157 million on crime and then $105 million on the economy and inflation. Now, Vox continues, the breakdown is even starker in the Pennsylvania Senate race, where Republicans have spent nearly $12 million on crime ads compared to $2.5 million on the economy and inflation. Where this race stands right now is a potential Fetterman win. Yeah. So Hillary very narrowly won Erie County, by the way, against Trump. Biden very narrowly won it. And Fetterman is crushing Oz. In Erie County, another Fetterman person says, quote, we feel fucking good. Okay.

And they said that to you? Yeah. All right. So you have a source from Fetterman saying we feel fucking good, which is a big deal right now at 1152. Because if the red tsunami prediction was panning out right now, if the red wave prediction was panning out right now, you just probably wouldn't see that. They would not be feeling fucking good. They would not be feeling fucking good. They would not be feeling good. So if we, again, like you could still see certain places Republicans doing better than people think. We don't know what's going to happen in Arizona. We don't know

what's going to happen in Nevada. We don't know what's going to happen in Oregon. That is all very true. But what is not true is that we're in some giant wave. And Ryan, I want to toss that question to you. Did Republicans talk too much about crime? Because the conventional Beltway wisdom going into tonight was the Republicans, or that Democrats talked too little about crime. I think, and this is going back to something that I've been thinking about more,

that a lot of what we do is pointless. Because you can only shape reality so much. And that goes, that's messaging, that's media, that's social media. And then there is also reality. Now you can shape, you can create vibes, and you can indeed kind of shape. Vibes create media narratives. Media narratives can then work downstream and then affect the way that people make decisions. So all of these things are related. Right.

But we talk in the media as if that's all that matters. And the reason we talk about that is because that's what we can look at. It's like that famous joke about the drunk who's looking, the drunk who lost his keys and is looking underneath a lamppost, like, is this where he lost? He's like, no, I lost it on the other side of the street, but this is where the light is. And so we look where the light is. And the light is, what are Democrats saying? What are Republicans saying? What are the fundamentals? So that's where we get to reality, when we start to talk about fundamentals. And that's important. The first midterm of a presidential, blah, blah, blah. Everybody knows those fundamentals. But the material reality of two things. One,

DOBs. Like, Democrats talking about it, not talking talking about it doesn't change the fact that a right that existed for 50 years that had widespread support Depending, you know Depending on how you pull it. Mm-hmm was taken away People voted in special elections throughout the summer in ways that defied the polls They voted in Kansas in ways that defied the polls are voting in Kentucky tonight in the ways that defied the polls. They voted in Kansas in ways that defied the polls. They're voting in Kentucky tonight in the ways that defied the polls.

And what people talk about is important, but people are their own individuals moving through this world. And they know that the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. They also know that jobs are increasing, that if they get fired, they can probably get another job. Although real wages are pretty significant. Real wages are either flat or up, depending if you're a lower wage worker, your wages are up. If you're a higher wage worker, they're are up. If you're a higher wage worker, they're not. If you've jumped, if you've switched jobs, your wages are significantly up. But on average, real wages are up for the lowest income workers, but

down because of inflation for the median. But you can, but you have more power at work and you can get a job if you get fired. People forget. The media forgets how much it sucks when unemployment is up at 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 percent. Absolutely. But maybe real people don't forget that. And they're like, yes, I hate inflation, but I like that there are jobs. I like that I have more power at work. And I don't necessarily blame Democrats only for inflation. Yeah.

Because Joe Biden just came in. So maybe we, maybe all the talk about messaging is a little bit much and that actually like it didn't matter that people do not like that Roe v. Wade was overturned. People, people want us, people want to come out and vote because now for once people can actually, you know, make a difference voting on that. Now, here's where they say democracy is on the ballot, except the result of this election in which the country, I think, pretty thoroughly demonstrated that it supports abortion rights. The result is not going to be that the country then gets abortion rights back. So democracy might be on the ballot. We've got a weird democracy. Meanwhile, and I mentioned this earlier, we're probably going to get a

giant debate over cutting social security and Medicare from Biden and House Republicans. Nobody ran on that. Nobody voted for it. So what kind of democracy is that? I actually think this probably blunts any discussion of that because you notice Kevin McCarthy only started talking about that, as Terry pointed out, only started talking about that when Republicans really felt like they had the wind at their backs. And it was like, hey, now we can sort of feel good enough. We're going to start talking about X, Y, and Z. And that's just not what happened. I think this probably feels like a rebuke to Republicans who wanted to talk about Social Security. They wanted to talk about entitlements

in general. Now, that remains to be seen. But another slap in the face to this, the red tidal wave narrative would be looking at New York. New York was a pickup that felt like tsunami territory. It felt like really tsunami territory because right here, I have the RCP average as of yesterday, you had HOKL up. In general, I mean, HOKul was pretty well up. Hochul was up seven in the RCP average as of yesterday. And as of right now, Hochul is up. I have this right here. Hochul is up 54.2 percent to Zeldin's 45.8 percent in the New York governor race. That's with 79% reporting. That looks like we're headed-

How's Sean Patrick doing? I think he's not doing great. Oh, he's still down by six points. D-triple-C chair down by six percentage points. Tell us about that. Leaning Republican. Tell us more about that. I mean, so for people that didn't follow this,

so Sean Patrick Maloney is the chair of the DCCC, which runs the House campaign arm. He used to be in District, what, 18 or 17. Well, it doesn't matter. He was in a district to the west. A Republican in Pittsburgh redrew all of New York's districts. The weirdest thing, like there's all sorts of fun conspiracy theories if you go down the rabbit hole about what role the Cuomo world was and payback and all this nonsense.

But anyway, so in the middle of the races, they redraw all of New York's congressional districts. Immediately, Sean Patrick Maloney, who's the chair of the DCCC, announces he's leaving the district he's in, which was like a deep split district, basically, to jump into a district that's more favorable for him. Only problem, it was currently occupied by an incumbent Democrat, Mondaire Jones. That puts Mondaire Jones in this really difficult situation. Does he want to run a primary against the DCCC chair? If he wins, what kind of help is he going to get from the DCCC in general?

Right. Or is he going to find another district to run in? Or is he, he didn't have to run, or is he going to step down and go work for the DOJ for a couple of years and then come back? So he looked at Jamal Bowman's district, which was just to the south. His team did polling of that district and were stunned to find how popular Jamal Bowman was. Jamal Bowman ended up winning his primary in a landslide, won tonight in a landslide. Richie Torres sent out a signal, don't come over here,al bowman yep so so then he looks around he goes to manhattan and he runs in new york's 10th district which represents manhattan so monday

jones loses there uh so he's heading out of congress all so that sean patrick maloney can get an easier seat and now he's it looks like he's losing that and so maybe now monday jones goes back to that district and runs in 2024. Right. So Ryan and I. But how do you explain that you wanted to represent Manhattan? That's a good question. That's tough. That's a good question. So Ryan and I could keep going here all night, actually.

Yeah. We would. Until Saga rolled in. Yeah, Saga would come in and he would have water and he'd be looking up at the sun and have all the energy in the world. And Ryan and I woke up this morning and chose the violence in terms of our liquids yeah um heady heady topper smuggled in from vermont that's right um and it was my dad texted he said stop cursing i'm just quoting your dad's watching i'm just quoting what people are telling me yeah well i'm not gonna i'm not gonna suppress why would your dad shoot the messenger He's just the messenger. He's a sensor

Tell them yeah. No, I this is not this is not water. It's it's Well, it's it's wine. But all that said We could keep going here, but the team needs to get up a point Pat Ryan up by a point See the crew has to get up for tomorrow. Yeah, right the crew has so do you guys you guys probably work tomorrow? But soccer and crystal are coming in early to get results out to you guys right away. And frankly, I think that makes the most sense because Philadelphia right now announced just in the last couple of days that it was going to be really hard for them to get any vote clarity on what happened in Philadelphia. Because the Republicans sued them. Well, but Republicans sued them because of the mass influx of mail-in ballots, which I forgot to say earlier when you were making that

point. We are seeing historically unprecedented levels of mail-in ballots still. People like to vote. People like to vote. So that said, actually, I think that makes a lot of sense because there's only so much we can do. We can't talk about Rick Caruso in the L.A. mayor's race, which is if Republicans want to feel good about a so-called realignment. The message might not be, as we're wrapping up right now, Ryan, the message Republicans, I think, wanted to take from this was a MAGA message, was that the realignment was going to come on the back of the MAGA movement. And the message that they might be getting, in fact, is that the realignment that's going to help them with Hispanic voters, with Cuban voters,

and Mexican voters, with Black voters and Cuban voters, might not be a MAGA message, but might be something actually that is completely different, that is independent in its feeling and not tied specifically to Donald Trump, who is flirting with whether or not he would run in the last few days, felt like a potential turnout mechanism for Republicans because he's popular with some really hardcore chunk of like 30% of the base that love Donald Trump. And there are a lot of Trump voters who love Donald Trump more than a Republican party. I think it's even more than half if you look at the numbers. But whether or not that translates into electoral victories outside of Republican strongholds means Republicans might need more Glenn Youngkins than they do MAGA candidates.

Although Myra Flores was a Glenn Youngkin candidate. She was one of your bellwethers. So update on that. 92% of the votes in and she's down by nine. I was actually going to say the opposite. She's not a Glenn Young candidate. She's a MAGA candidate. She's pretty hard MAGA. She's very much a Trump candidate.

And Lauren Boebert, by the way, might be headed to a surprise loss in Colorado, which nobody saw coming. A very MAGA candidate. She's still down four. She's down four. OK. Times calls her likely Republican, but she's still down four with 75 percent in. So the margin is narrowing. OK.

So that could easily flip. But if she's in a close race, I mean, that could still prove the point. We don't know yet. Again, that's why Sager and Chrysler are coming in bright and early. But the point remains. I'll stop. Yeah, that's why Sager and Kristler are coming in bright and early. But the point remains that... I'll stop, Lopin. Yeah, that's a good idea. Maybe we should close this.

But yeah, the point remains that, like, this could be going in a direction that's, like, okay for Republicans and okay for Democrats. And okay for Democrats is better than expected for Democrats. And okay for Republicans is worse than expected for Republicans.

If you really need a fix, I've been doing a live chat, which I've been neglecting on my sub stack, which is called Bad News. Tell us what Ken did. Oh yeah. So my sub stack is called Bad News. Ken's, I forget what his is called, but probably just Ken Klippenstein. So I tried out this chat function. It's live chat. It's going on right now. And Ken kept jumping in there and posting links to his own newsletter in my live chat, which is great. Everybody sign up for Ken Klippenstein's newsletter. I'm all for that. So as I head out of here, I'll go back into that live chat.

That's bad news on Substack. Emily, it's been fun. And I guess we will see you on Thursday. And you guys will see Sagar and Crystal tomorrow morning. That's right. You have full breaking points coverage all week because it's election week, obviously. And Crystal ended their sort of part of the broadcast tonight just by thanking premium subscribers. Yeah, the crew was telling us that a bunch of subscriptions were coming in tonight.

That's what makes this possible. That's what makes having people on the road possible. That's what makes bringing Status Quo and Jordan Chariton's reporters from the ground in. So thank you for doing that. Keep those subscriptions coming in so we can keep growing. So we've got a presidential election coming up. All we can say is thank you. We appreciate it so much. And Sagar and Crystal will be back here with you all tomorrow morning. That's the right call because a lot of the stuff, you know, it's going to be morning until we have concrete answers. So thank you to everybody for tuning in. They'll see you back here bright and early. Get some sleep. Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running weight-loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results. But there were some dark truths behind Camp Shane's facade of happy, transformed children.

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