Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective - 2024-25 Large Sample-Size Theater & Clippers’ Center Ivica Zubac Interview

Episode Date: April 4, 2025

Brian Windhorst is joined by ESPN's Kevin Pelton to talk ‘Large Sample-Size Theater’ with the NBA trends over the course of this season including the increase in 3-point attempts around the league, the Thunders’ historic success, the MVP of the league and some key data since the trade deadline to show the playoff potential of the Warriors & the Lakers. Then, Clippers’ center Ivica Zubac joins the show to talk about his outstanding season and his potential for Defensive Player of the Year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, sports fans, the ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place. The ESPN app is your home to thousands of live events, ESPN shows, and originals across every ESPN network and service. And now you can check if you already have ESPN Unlimited as part of your TV package for no additional calls. Visit activate.esPN.com to learn how to access your account or sign up, then start streaming in the ESPN app. It's all of ESPN all in one place. Sign up or activate now. Hello and welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we're doing on Thursday afternoon. But in the morning with our guest today, the Machine, Kevin Pelton.

What's up, Machine? Yeah, it's afternoon where you are, morning still where I am. Yeah, he's in Seattle. We will be joined later on the podcast by our latest friend of the pod who's a clipper, which we've had a number of clippers on this year, Pelton. But Evitsa Zubach will be joining us a little bit later and we'll be talking to him. But first, more importantly, one of the key dates on the HOOP Collective calendar every year, it's time for a large sample size theater, which means the playoffs are almost here, Kevin.

How many years have we done large sample size theater? It's got to be day into pre-pandemic, don't you think? For sure, yeah. I mean, I think we probably started it when it was the origin of the Hoop Collective, which was like 2016-17. So it's been a minute. Anyway, this is where we take a look at some trends. Early in the season, usually in November or December, I think this year we did it. in early December.

Yep. We look at small sample size theater, some things that are happening in the league, and Pelton can, you know, speculate whether they're continuing or not. And so now that we've seen a full season of some things, we have large sample sizes. So that's where we're going to start. And Pelton, I feel like for the last several years, we've had a similar topic in both small and large sample size theater. And that's the three-point shooting, which we are in the peak.

Maybe you don't say peak, but we are in the throws of the three-point era in the NBA. Now that you've seen the 24-25 season basically play out, and you've seen the three-point shooting, we've got people. It's been a vogue thing to call for changes to the court. Our old colleague, Kurt Goldsbury, who put on the collective many times, is now with the ringer. He debuted a paper or a thought piece, whatever you want to call it, this week, Peltner, where he called for the elimination of the corner three-pointer, for example. I had dinner with Goldsbury in Paris in January, and he was talking at the time about this.

So he watched the data for the following two months, and it did not change his mind. So he rolled that out. But where is your analytic check, the opposite of a vibe check, the analytic check on where the three-point shot is in the NBA at the end of this season? So when we talked about this back in December, you know, even I think I wrote about it maybe still in October, but early. November, it was clear that three-point rate is something that stabilizes pretty quickly league-wide and that we could expect that this was not a fluke, that we were going to see these increasing number of threes led by the Boston Celtics. And conveniently, last week, I wrote a piece on ESPN.com coming out of the Sloan conference, because there was a really fascinating panel

there where Darrell Morey, the co-founder of the conference, the longtime executive in charge of now the Sixers, formerly the Houston Rockets, went on stage and in a panel, you know, do a titled Have Nerds Ruined Basketball, said the three-pointer is too valuable, that the NBA has to do something, that there's no way that you can argue that the three should be 50% more valuable than the two at this point and that it, quote, breaks the game, which is I joked in the piece, is sort of like Frankenstein saying, look, somebody's got to do something about this monster. It is out of control. And one of the things that's unclear is like, To what degree Daryl may have been, you know, kind of playing devil's advocate on stage

because it definitely made for a more entertaining panel, especially because the foil for him on stage, who was arguing that, no, actually, fans like threes, things are fine, people kind of latched on to the poor national TV ratings at the early part of the season and used three pointers as an explanation, even though there's no actual evidence linking those two, was Evan Wash, the league's executive vice president of strategy. in analytics, who is basically making the case that we don't need to do anything right now. Maybe we're going to monitor it. Maybe at some point we will.

But right now, fans are generally happy with the number of threes in the state of the game. So that was kind of a fascinating thing in the context of all of this. The one thing that has maybe changed a little bit over the larger sample is the Celtics three point attempts have come back to the pack a tiny bit. They're still going to be number one historically in three point attempts in percentage of shots in three. smash some records the other night in Memphis. I can't, 62, I think they took.

Yeah, I mean, they've had, they had 61 an opening night. I think they have another game that's over 60 this season, potentially. So they're surpassing Daryl Morey's rockets from the James Hardin era, those 17, 18, 19 teams, who previously were the all-time leaders in threes. The one interesting thing about this conversation and why it's sort of happening now, and I'd be curious, you know, what your perspective is on this talking to people within the league is, There was a stretch where, starting with the 2020, coming out of the 2020-20-1 season that was played, you know, largely without fans during the midst of the pandemic, since then, threes had kind of flattened out over the last four seasons. And now we've got this jump again this year.

And I think the Celtic success last year was a big part of it because there was a period of time where it looked like, hey, maybe we have gotten to the point where we're shooting enough threes. and there's no longer an advantage to be gained for the offense by shooting more threes. And, you know, in the regular season last year, the team that shot more threes in a game had a worse record than the team that shot fewer threes. But then in the playoffs, that flipped, the top two teams in terms of regular season three point volume, the Celtics and the Mavericks made the finals. Celtics won rather easily in large part because of their shooting. And it does seem like teams sort of looked at that and said, we need to do what Boston is doing.

The tipping point for me, and I don't know if the data backs this up, but the tipping point for me was when teams went from just collecting three-point shooters and putting the three-point shooters on the court to encouraging guys who are not three-point shooters to shoot three. So, for example, you know, in my, you know, and I'll just track it with LeBron, because as LeBron has gone through his career, we've seen more and more shooting. And when LeBron was young in his career, it was like, boy, let's put, let's basically have him run point guard and have the two other wings that are on the court with. them or the two other guards on the court rhythm because he's a forward technically. Let's make

sure they can shoot threes. You know, there was like a, you know, a big move when the Cavs decided we can't have Eric Snow on the court with him. We need to have Mo Williams on the court with him. And when they made that change out, it was part of when they won 66 games the first year. So it was like, let's see if we can get two really good three point shooters with LeBron. And then it was like, let's see if we can get a third really good three point shooter, which in the case of the calves, they went and traded for Antoine Jameson. And when he went to Miami, it was, you know, they got Shane Badiye and had him be their power forward, really a small four, but they said, you be a power forward and shoot threes. And then, and then it was like, wait a minute, what if we can

have all four guys around LeBron shoot threes, which is when they got Chris Bosch into shooting the three. And even that, Pelton, he was doing it a little bit. He was shooting two or three a game. He was not out there shooting seven, eight, nine a game. And obviously the rest of the league was doing this too. The heat weren't doing this in a vacuum. But I remember famously for me, Eric Spolstra during the NBA lockout because he didn't have a team to coach. He went and spent a bunch of time with the Chip Kelly Oregon Ducks football team, which was kind of weird. Why would a basketball coach? And he was also, he's an Oregon fan.

So I was like, what are you doing? But he was really going there and watching how the ducks use the spread offense and the idea of being creating the space. And, you know, LeBron and the heat kept making finals and teams were mimicking them. So what ended up happening was it was let's see if we can get stretch fours because that was a thing. because that was a thing in the teens, right? Like, let's get forward to, let's get power forwards you can shoot threes. And the tipping point has come in the 20s, in my view. Feel free to disagree with me, where, like, teams have sent their centers off into the summer

and said, Yonis Valenzhenius, when we see you in October or September, we'd really like to see if you could shoot threes. And, you know, not that Yonis is the classic case, but, you know, seeing Valenciunus shoot threes was sort of to me like, what are we doing here? Because this is not a man built to shoot threes. Youssef Nurkich is a good one. Yusuf Nurkich, another classic example. And so that was a tipping point where to me, I think the league might have just pushed it a little bit too much.

Because let's not have guys who are not built to do this, do this. And so I think that did moderate it out. But then because it's a copycat league, when the Celtics have so much success. And again, they did it because of their personnel. But Porzingis is an example of a guy who didn't shoot like this. And next thing, you know, he's shooting from 28 feet like nothing. And you see like, oh my God, look at how Porzingis inverts the entire these defenses when he stretches. Because the thing about Porzingis that he does makes it so hard.

I mean, it's one thing to have a big man defend the corner. He can kind of get back a little bit. When Porzingis's man is having to be at the three point liner farther even out, it just destroys his ability to get back defensively. And so I do think what we're possibly seeing is a copycat to the Celtics. And, you know, you look at the teams are at the top. Like you look at the Cavs success, although they're. their three-point shooting has really leveled off percentage-wise over the last month. There's no doubt that the Cavs came into this season with the strategy,

let's be more like the Celtics, and it's delivered them and helped them deliver 60-something wins. So I'm waiting for what your data says, Pelton, because I'm not sure we're seeing a slowdown thanks to the Celtics sort of reigniting it. Yeah, and I do think at some point, like, one of the things is going to happen is there's only so many long-term twos you can turn into threes. And one of the things that gets lost in this discussion a lot of time is it's not a tradeoff of shots around the basket or threes. Shots around the basket, shots right around

the basket are down a little bit just because of the fact that teams are so focused on them defensively. What's up instead are floaters and sort of those short mid-range attempts that are still within the paint, but not really jump shots. So what the three has done, I think it is actually the Oregon offense is a great comparison for this because when Chip Kelly was there, they weren't a team that, you know, this was not the run and shoot offense. This was not Mike Langell. Leach. A lot of what that space did for Oregon was created lanes for them to run and gash you on the ground that way. And I think that's a pretty good comparison for what we're seeing in the NBA. And one thing I do like is, you know, everybody talks a lot about Brooke Lopez and his development

into a three-point shooter is someone who was, you know, almost exclusively a post player, maybe, you know, stretched it out to like 15 to 18 feet as a mid-range shooter early in his career. One of my favorite stories of this season has been Luke Cornett with the Celtics, with the Celtics, this team that values three-point shooting more than anyone else, who shot tons of threes when he came into the league, was a stretch five before it was in vogue, and now never shoots threes, but it's just like shooting 70%, 80% from the field because he's getting so many dunks out of the pick and roll is with his well-spaced as the Boston offenses. So those to me are still exciting things that the spacing is creating these opportunities

for plays around the ramp. Well, our guests later on the show, we haven't done the interview yet. So we'll see. I don't know what he says. Zubach has taken, I think, two threes in the last four years. He has not leaned into that and he is thriving. So like Cornett, there's ways to go about this, you know, that, where you don't have to do that. And by the way, I mentioned, you know, the Cavs having so much success this year, they're starting Senator Jared Allen doesn't shoot threes either.

And he shoots well over 60%. So there's still there's still room for that. There's still room to play sort of quote unquote old school basketball. And yeah, so where is it going to settle this season? How do you think it'll affect the playoffs? Yeah, I mean, it's settled around the same point that it has been, you know, around 37 and a half, I think, attempts per game up for around 35 in previous season. So a considerable leap. The playoffs is going to be interesting.

We do see a little bit of a trend this year, like I said, where is opposed to the last year, the teams that are shooting more threes have been somewhat more successful. So that's probably going to lead the more threes in the playoffs. The one interesting counter example, of course, is the Denver Nuggets, who shoot the fewest threes in the league, still have one of the very best offenses in the NBA built around Nicole Yokic. If Denver does get it together and sort of make a long playoff run as they did two years ago on her to the title, then maybe it feels a little bit different than if it's, you know,

Celtics against, I don't know who I guess would be the premier three-point shooting team in the Western Conference, necessary. But Celtics Cavaliers. Maybe Warriors. I mean, obviously, with staff. Although, you know, Draymond and Jimmy Butler don't really shoot a lot of three. Right. All right. So another thing that we've seen, large sample size, I believe the Oklahoma City Thunder have completed their schedule against the Eastern Conference and including their win in Boston. So the Celtics finally lost a game on Wednesday night. They lost at home to the Miami Heat. A surprise game, by the way, but I got to say, Pelton. I've got the course of my time covering the NBA. There's been a lot of heat teams that have won unexpectedly in Boston,

so maybe I shouldn't have been surprised. But before that, the only time the heat had lost, the Celtics had lost in the previous five, six weeks was to the Thunder on their home court. The Thunder completed their Eastern Conference portion of their schedule at 29 and 1. This, of course, is a record. Their only loss was in Cleveland in that game in January, which was one of the highest level games played throughout the entire season. They did a terrific job guarding Donovan Mitchell in that game. Maybe they play again. You know, they could win.

Maybe they play again. Donovan has a much better game and it's not as close. I don't know. But certainly it wasn't like they got boat race. They were not that far away from being 30 and 0. This is a team that has, I believe, 121 wins over the last two regular seasons. I think they had 57 last year. I think as we were recording this, they're sitting at 64.

121 wins over the last two regular seasons against just 27 losses. Peltin, what do we take from the Thunder's dominance against the East, including 2 and O against the Celtics, the Celtics who have basically beaten everybody for the last two years? What do we take from this large sample from the Thunder record? Yeah, predictably is the Thunder continue to head towards what is likely going to be the greatest point differential in NBA history, something that came up on the pod earlier this week. I think they're basically, right now, I think they've surpassed the 71, 72 Lakers as outscoring, having the largest differential.

Like, how is they've got six games left? It could change. My guess is it's going to grow. But I think they've already achieved having outscore their opposition by more points than anybody in a season right now. Yeah. If they're just neutral over the last six games of the season, then they will, in fact, surpass the record.

So a lot of that came against the East. They had a differential of nearly plus 18. in Eastern Conference games. It actually went down a little in their final game against the Detroit Pistons because they won by only 16 points in that one on ESPN on Wednesday night. The next best point differential since 1976-77 against either conference, either your own or the opposite conference, was actually Boston last year at plus 13.9. So there are almost four points per game better than Boston did against the West last year.

that was the record. Now, the part of this is, even though the Thunder are potentially trending towards 70 wins, they have not been quite as good against the West as they have against the East, obviously. If you look at it since 1976-77, their conference win percentage among West teams playing other West teams is only 21st. So they're like still very good, obviously, but not historically great in that regard. So that's, I think, a little bit of an interesting thing going into the playoffs where obviously they are not going to play East teams until potentially they get to the NBA finals. I still would not say it's a major concern because if you go back to that differential aspect, they're plus 10.6 against West teams, which is six the best since 76, 77 against

among teams playing their own conference. And the West teams that have surpassed them in that span are the 2015-16 warriors that went 73 and 9 and the 2016-17 warriors who went 16 and won in the playoffs. Yeah, so the problem with looking at historic stats against the East right now is that maybe not at the beginning of the season, but from a mid-season on, you have six teams in the East that you can look at and say they're tanking. And those six teams would be the Wizards, the Hornets, the 76ers, the Nets, and the Raptors. And so beating up on those weak sisters who are tanking, you know, it's hard to compare, you know, with how they play against the top teams. And, you know, you look at farther down, the heat have been, now they've won six in a row right now,

but they've won six in a row to get to six games under 500. They were 12 games under 500 in ninth place at one point. And the Bulls, who are eight games under 500, and they have improved. They were at one point more than 10 games below 500. There was a stretch in the season where the East had eight teams that were below 10 games below 500. Personifying this Pelton was that when the Heat had their 10 game losing streak, I mentioned this on the pod before, but I'm going to say it again. because I just think it's irrelevant to where the East is.

The Heat lose 10 games in a row. They were already in the play-in zone. It wasn't like they had been in second place and they hit a hot, you know, they were already like 8th or 9th. They lose 10 games in a row and they still had a five-game lead. Stay in the playing. Okay. So now they've got this win and now they're in great shape to get the ninth seed

and get home court for the first play-in game. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. Let me ask you this. The calves are 22. and six against the West, including one in one against the Thunder. Does that mean anything to you if the calves are able to outlast the Celtics? The Celtics, by the way, are 21 and 8. I believe they've got one game left against the West.

The Celtics have, that's still pretty good. You know, I don't even know who it's against. I don't think it's against a tough opponent. But, oh, it's against the Suns. The Suns on Friday night, I think is the last Celtics win. So they'll be favored to win that game. Let's say they finish 22 and 8. Cavs are 22 and 6. They've got two games left. What do you make of the Cavs record against the

West, considering the West's relative strength? Yeah, I mean, I think it shows the legitimacy of what Cleveland has done during the regular season. All things considered, you'd probably rather be better against your own conference than the other conference, since those are the teams you're going to play most of the playoffs. And there is some, it's not huge, but there is some predictive power to the regular season head-to-head match up when you go into a playoff series. So, you know, know, both Cleveland and Boston have been very good is Oklahoma City has against the West against their East rivals, too. I wouldn't say it's any source of a concern in that regard. It is fascinating. So the one team that's kind of flipped on this, the team that has done better

against the West than the East is the Los Angeles Lakers, who are 32 and 13 against the West and 14 and 16 against the East. Despite all of those bad teams in the East you mentioned, the Lakers have lost more games against Eastern teams out of 30 than against Western teams who they are eventually going to play 52 times. Here's why I believe that's true, because the Lakers have the biggest differential between home and road performance. So the Lakers, they have a game tonight against the Warriors at home. I don't know what's going to happen in that game, but they're 29 and 9 at home and 17 and 20

on the road. They have the biggest differential home and road in the league. And so they get to play more West games at home is what I suspect is the reasoning there. But I don't know. Maybe there's another reason. We're going to talk about the Lakers, but before we do, on the last pod, Bontam's unveiled the Bontem's poll. Shea, Gilles of South Alexander, got 77 of the hundred votes for MVP. And then that night, Yokic went out and had a 61 point triple double, you know, double overtime loss.

But this MVP race has been, you know, it's been, it's been somewhat friendly. I don't think, certainly maybe in Denver when they see that Yokic is just trailing in the, in the polling, maybe they've got their fangs out a little bit. But I don't think people are like super hyped on it, probably because Yokic has won three of them. And when he's won, like, last year when he wanted, he, like, legit shrugged his shoulders. He was like, all right, if you, if you must give it to me, I'll take it. And so I don't think there's like this feeling that the guy who's going to potentially come out in second place is quote unquote being wronged. But his statistics are absolutely jaw dropping, arguably his best season. And I've got Chris Herring

and McMahon trying to argue through analytics that Yolkich is actually a better defender than Shea. I'm looking forward to reading that piece because maybe my, mind can be changed. But what do the large sample size say about who really should win the MVP? Yeah, it's interesting because for a long period of time, even when Joel Embed did win the one MVP in the span that Nicola Yokic did not win, Yokch was always a pretty clear number one in most of the advanced metrics. And, you know, what I'm primarily looking at is I'm casting my vote for MVP and doing my picks in the straw poll is the metrics that sort of combine the players' box score step. with their impact on the team on versus off, adjusting for the opponents and luck in terms of opponent three point shooting. And again, Yokic has been a clear number one throughout his MVP reign in those metrics. And this year, it's interesting. EPM, which is on dunksin threes.com,

is considered a leader in this category. The LeBron metric that it's on Bball Index.com, those generally this year favor Shea is having slightly more impact. And it's interesting because it does seem a lot of that, and I'm curious to see what Chris and Bayand are going to write about this as well. A lot of that advantage this year is at the defensive end of the court where, even though Yokic is putting up the best per game stats of his career, the best three-point percentage that we've seen, 46%, or 42%, I think it is, whatever, his offensive stats are as good as ever. His defensive stats are down a little bit. His defensive reboundy has not been quite the same. The Nuggets defensive rebounding has not been quite the same.

and his impact on the team shooting, his opponent shooting, has been a little worse than usual. So all of those factors like generally the Nuggets have been a very good defense with Yokic on the court in this span as contenders. This year they've only been slightly better than average with him on the court and not quite the sort of same on versus off impact that we've seen. I will say very much there is a case for both of these guys statistically. Yokic is easily number one in win probability added, which is kind of an interesting. thing to look at because it is sort of the sense of most valuable. Denver playing more close games than Oklahoma City probably gives him a bit of an edge in that one. And Owen Phillips, who does a great

newsletter of the F5 that's been referenced on this pod before, he had an interview last week with the creators of some of these advanced all-in-one metrics where basically they said, Yokic and SGA, it's got to be one of those two guys, but it could be either one. So I'm kind of fascinated. It doesn't feel like the 61 point triple double had more of an impact. pack on the race and the odds at ESPN bed. She's still a three to one favor. Yeah, it was a double overtime game. I mean, you know, the double overtime game is going to elevate stats.

And the thing is like, it's not like it's a neck and neck thing. And he did it against Shea, like in the win, when the race for, you know, the number one seat. Like, you know, at this point, I would be very surprised if there was anything individually that they could do to change the race. But, you know, the way you finish is the way you finish. And if Denver wins out and Yokic has like this incredible string of game, games and they get the number two seed, like that could be a factor. So I certainly would not call the race over, but I would call, you know, based on the polling, which, you know, Bont-Emp's polling.

Bont-Thomps is very careful not to say, declare like it's infallible because you can't predict things and it is done with two weeks left in the season. We don't want to do it with two days left in the season because we want there to be an indication of where the race is before it's actually over, so there could be some wiggle room, you know, but I would be surprised if there's anything. It doesn't mean impossible. I would be surprised there's anything. Yokic could do at this point. It's, again, not a commentary on him. I think it's a commentary on that Shea has been so great and that Yokic, you know, won it last year, shrugged his shoulders and then his team was disappointed in the playoffs. Like, that shouldn't matter, but I just can tell you from

the voters over the years, it does matter. All right. So a couple of things that have happened more recently. I don't know if these fit into large sample size, but they're very important and very relevant. So coming into this game tonight, which is a very important game for the Warriors and Lakers and we're not going to know what's going to happen. And look, the Lakers, are three and O against the Warriors this year. And like I said, they're 29 and 9 at Crypto. The Warriors. But none of those three meetings with either Luca Donchich or Jimmy Butler. Of course, of course. So going into tonight's game, the Warriors are 12 and O with the starting lineup of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandon Pajamsky. Small lineup.

Obviously, they're a team that it has really good options on their bench. Steve Kerr throughout the season has developed lineups. They are also 19 and 4 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup. I have been arguing Peltin, and you feel free to disagree with me, that the Warriors are truly the number two seed. Now, the Rockets fans would have something to say about that because the rockets have been great over the last month. But if you look at the Rockets schedule, it hasn't, it diminishes a little bit for me. But I certainly respect the Rockets. But the truth is, is that there's not that much of a difference between teams that are second and teams that are eighth. You know, the Clippers have been playing great, but they're in the playing right now.

You know, Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the West and they're struggling to hold on to the six or seven seed. I actually think to me, in my mind, the Warriors are sort of the secret number two seed to me because of that 19 and four record with Jimmy, because of that record with this starting lineup, where they've sort of figured out how to maximize their personnel. What does the data say about whether this is something that can transfer it to a large sample size, which is what's going to matter in the postseason? I think it can. So let's start by talking about since the All-Star. break since I feel like that's a cleaner cutoff than the Warriors did win a couple of games with Jimmy before the break. They also suffered one of their rare losses at Dallas. But since the break, they're 16 and 4. They have the second best net rating in the NBA at 9.7 points

per 100 possessions better than their opponents. Only Oklahoma City has been better in that span, despite the Celtics going 17 and 4, the Cavs going 17 and 5. And to your point, Houston going 16 and 6. And what would be exciting about this? to me if I was a Warriors fan is there's not a lot of fluky stuff in the Warriors being second and defensive rating over that span. You know, anytime that happens, I have like basically a flashing red siren that goes over over my computer and says, well, let's look at what the opponent three point percentage is and in what factor that's playing since that is the ultimate. The expect versus the expected three. Because, you know, you always educate me on the expected

versus the actual. Yeah. And the expected usually is not very different from league average. But the Warriors opponent three point percentage is thoroughly unremarkable in that span. They are, let me pull this up here. Yeah, opponents are hitting 38% of their threes. Like they're actually shooting better than you would expect against the Warriors. Right. And their overall defense in terms of opponent shooting is measured by effective field goal percentage is basically league average about what it was before the break.

So what's happened, what's changed is suddenly this Warriors team is forcing turnovers more than anyone in the league since the All-Star break. And one of the other interesting things in there is that Oklahoma City, which was on threatening a historic pace in forcing turnovers in the first half of the season. Now that they're playing Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartnstein together to start games, they're actually pretty average now in terms of forcing turnovers. Their defensive success is much more about, you know, preventing opponents from scoring in the paint and their defensive rebounding with those two guys giving them a lot more size or at least relative to what it was. But, you know, the Warriors kind of started

out that you're forcing a lot of turnovers when they were healthy at the beginning. any of the year, De Anthony Melton was a big part of that is one of their Markey Offs season additions. Then he got hurt. They stopped forcing turnovers. Opponents were hitting a ton of threes and their defense really slipped in December and January when they're struggling. But you put Jimmy Butler, who's maybe most underrated element, is that he is terrific at creating havoc defensively. You put him and Draymond out there together and as well as Gary Payton II, who's and Brandon Pajemski, a couple of other guys who are, you know, defensive playmakers. And this Golden State team is flying around out there.

This is what the Thunder did. When the Thunder didn't have great size, they won the possession game by getting turnovers. And so the Warriors play without great size. I mean, they can go big. They've got, you know, Quentin Post and Kavanaugh-Lunee down there. Quentin perimeter. Well, yeah, but, you know, he is a big guy on defense.

Defensively, yes. Yeah. But Quentin perimeter, yeah, sorry. You know, it's not like they don't have big guys they can go to. But what's helped them is playing this sort of small. fast way that Oklahoma City really succeeded in. And, you know, whenever I would look at the defensive rebounding numbers where the thunder would really get pounded early in the season, they would say, well, that's all fine, but let's look at possessions. Let's look at, let's look at steals. Let's look

at, you know, deflections. Let's look at how many times we get the ball and how many more shots we get, even no matter how many times we get rebounds. And it was true. And it's one of the reasons why they're on PIPP he pays for 70 wins. So that's something that the, that the warriors have leaned into. So, yeah, I mean, do you take issue with me calling them? sort of the secret two seed because I kind of like it and I've been rolling it out in my various performances. You can you can either endorse it or tell me to stop it. I do understand why Houston fans would be frustrated about that. I mean, I think one of the fascinating things is going to be how this seating shakes out over the last 10 days of the season, starting with this

Lakers Warriors game that as you mentioned will have already been played. If you're the Warriors, is there to some degree you'd almost rather be the sixth seed than the four seed and just stay out of the Oklahoma City side of the bracket, particularly if the Lakers are also in that side of the bracket, or the Nuggets, I should say, if they're also in that side of the bracket, maybe the Lakers too. And then you could go into the 2736 and be by far the most experienced team of that group. That's kind of a fascinating possibility to me. Well, that's the thing. Like, it's so tightly packed. And the Warriors could get up to three, which would be the best case scenario for that. It's very hard to project what's going to happen because it's so tightly packed. And you know, like,

Denver really hurt themselves. You know, they blow the game the other nights of Minnesota. You know, there was a lot of twists and turns in that game. But obviously, they kind of had great, you know, when Westbrook's got the ball going up the court, when they're up by a point, you know, their win probability is, you know, is pretty high. And then they have the back to back, you know, Wednesday night. And they're playing against the spurs. And they're just totally dead in that game from the start. They got down by 20, I think, in the first quarter. Losing those two games, like really kind of puts them out of position. And, you know, know, and you look at the Lakers, the Lakers got those really two good wins over Memphis and Houston, and then they got this game tonight. I don't know what's going to happen, but if they win that game, the Lakers have all the tiebreakers. They've already established all the tiebreakers all the team around them. So we just mentioned their record against the West. That's the other element of these tiebreakers. So the Lakers, you know, having the tiebreaker over all those teams, and if they're able to run the gauntlet of Memphis, Houston and Golden State, the teams are all around them and win all three in the course of like six days, it puts them in great shape. And you'd say,

okay, the Lakers are going to be in great position for the two or the three or the two at the three at least, avoiding. But then they got to go play Oklahoma City twice next week. So it's just very hard to project it. Yeah, I think it obviously you would much rather be the four than the, or you'd much rather be the six than the four. Maybe not much rather, but if you had a choice, you would take the six over the four because especially team like Golden State, I don't think home court is as important to that veteran team. Certainly you're not going to tell Jimmy Butler that he can't win a road playoff game. The guy who made the NBA finals from the play in tournament is the eight seed, yeah. Right.

But obviously, you'd like to have the three, too. So if you're sitting there in four, you're not going to just roll out the ball and say take the game. So it's hard to project. Well, one more thing I want to talk about in this sort of this vein is the Lakers defense. Because throughout the course, before the Luka trade, any discussion with the Lakers, I was kind of boring. I'd be like, well, I can't take them seriously. they're 23rd in defense or 26 in defense. Like, okay, you know, maybe, you know,

Austrian will have a big shooting night or DeAngler Russell will have one of the nights where he goes six of nine from three and they can beat anybody. And yeah, they're good at home. But I can't look at them seriously. Even with LeBron's playing great. I can't look at them seriously and say they're going to win 12 playoff games to get to the finals. They trade for Luca. And my response is, oh my God, what an amazing trade that sets them up beautifully for the medium term future. I think their team is unbalanced. And I even was saying, like in the wake of Luca trade, I'm not putting any pressure on Laker team at all this year. If they are able to win a playoff round, you know, you believe in Luca and LeBron, but how can you possibly look at the way this team is structured with no interior

defense, what they were not even a good defensive team anyway? And they just added Luca and they're going to play them next to Austin Reeves. And I mean, how do I look at that team and say they're going to be able to defend? But JJ Reddick leans into playing small, playing Dorian Finney Smith, big minutes basically playing center or LeBron playing center or Luca playing Center, depending on how you do it. And he just encourages the team to play maximum effort. And Peltin, they start winning. They start winning with getting teams, you know, leaving three-point shooters that they don't fear open and living and dying with that. And all of a sudden, they're like a top six defense for like four, five, six weeks. And they start raffling

off victories. And I'm like, well, this is a significant sample size. Like, I can't ignore a team playing 20 games of top 10 defense. And then LeBron gets hurt. And they go the other direction. and they play 10 games of bottom 10 defense. So now they're back whole and they're doing the small thing. They did this against the Rockets the other night and it was successful. I don't know what happened on this Warriors game tonight. I'm still not putting a lot of pressure on the Lakers. I still am not going to say that it's like championship or bust like so many people are saying

or at least gets the finals or bust or, you know, I have the audacity to believe that a team that might win 70 games is the legitimate favorite, which can seem like counter programming at some point. I don't even think it's, to be honest with you, it's an easy position. for me to take and I'll go on first take with Stephen A and Shannon Sharp all day long because it's not even I don't have to stick my neck out to defend the funnel, but whatever. What am I to

make of this Laker defense and where do you think it's headed? Yeah, so they were number one in defensive rating in the NBA in the month of February. Then were number 17 in March. I mean, the fascinating thing is you mentioned LeBron's injury and this has been one of the large sample, small sample, confounding

things of the NBA this season that our new colleague Zach Cram wrote about, I think last month or maybe back in February, which is that the Lakers have been better this season with LeBron on the bench, or at least it had that point. I'm not totally sure. They still have been much better defensively with him on the bench, even though he was out during that stretch where they were really struggling defensively because it wasn't just him out. It was also Jackson Hayes and Rui Hachimura. So any semblance of size that they had or quality size that they had. Right. They were playing two-way guys at center, routinely playing

two big guys at center. A lot of tree jemison the third. So yeah and yet still the Lakers since the all-star break have been better defensively with LeBron on the bench and on the court. Having said that when you see LeBron play defensively on the nights when he's engaged, there's no doubt he's making a positive influence and JJ Reddick has noticed that. So while I believe those numbers, I also kind of say that doesn't tell the whole story, but I believe him. Yeah, it's a case where even the large sample size of a full season of on-off data is still a relatively small sample size. because of the fact that, you know, we talk a lot about opponent three-point shooting

how noisy it can be at the team level. But think about it when you're slicing it into just LeBron's minutes versus LeBron's minutes off. You're kind of, you're not just doubling that, that variance. You're multiplying the variance by each other is what you're doing. So, you know, it therefore sets up a lot of situations. One of the ones that was most notable was Kauai Leonard, I think the year after he won defensive player of the year, the spurs were better defensively with him on the bench. And that was one of those things. you dug into, and it was really all a product of opponent three-point shooting and obviously did not continue going forward. So I think that's what's happening with LeBron. I do think the Lakers were going to

be hard pressed to keep up what they were doing. If you look at that February stretch, opponents, they were number one in the league by a wide margin in terms of holding opponents based on their expected shot making, based on the second spectrum tracking, which captures where the shot is, how close defenders are, what type of shot, all of those things. And then also the ability of the shooter in one of the models that they have quantified shot probability. The funny thing is in March, they've still been very good in that regard. They are, you know, still substantially below it, but their shot profile in terms of the shots they're giving up, despite this argument that they're leaving the right shooters open, hasn't really borne out statistically. The expected shot quality

was in the bottom 10 in February. It's gotten a little bit even worse than that in March. So, you know, they're giving up shots. And right now, I think, you know, I do think that their size, their length, multiple positions, the fact that even though they don't have, you know, that classic seven-foot rim protector or Anthony Davis playing power forward or anything like that, what they do have is a lot of size across multiple positions. Yeah, Jared Vanderbilt, for sure. And when they start the game, you know, Austin Reeves is their smallest guy on the court. There's no one little out there for the, for the Lakers.

And by the way, wait, are we sure DeGangelo Russell played for the Lakers this season? That can't be possible, right? That was like five years ago. I seem to recall it. Yeah. Point well taken. I will say this, while I can't possibly guess what the Lakers defense will be in the playoffs, for the Lakers to have a run, I think they need obviously health. They need LeBron to, you know, he just hasn't quite been the same player since the groin injury. They need that. They need LeBron to be somewhat healthy.

And they really, I think, need to be in the two or the three. Number one, while I certainly would, again, would never look Luca Donchich or LeBron James in the face and say, you can't win a road playoff game. There's so much a better team when they have home court. And that first round series would be such an advantage to them because you know they're going to be playing a quality team. You know, they could end up having to play Minnesota. They could end up having to play Golden State. And they need home court in that series. The second thing is, if you're in a two or three, it means you're opposite, the thunder. So your chances of making a long run may be tied to not having to face them. And so, well, again, I wouldn't, like, if the Lakers draw the five seed,

it's not like, let's say they draw the five seed and they're playing Denver or they're playing Memphis. Like, I'm going to say, no chance. Like, there's no way LeBron and Luca could win in Denver or win in Memphis. Of course they can. But I know that this is a team that over the large sample size has proven they're really tough on their home court and very managely beaten on the road. So that's my large sample size analysis, which could be worthless. But all right, Pelton, thank you for your intelligence and your perspective as always. We really appreciate it. We'll be right back here on the Hoop Collective. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. Okay, now we are very happy to be joined by Clippers Center. Star Center. I'm going to call you Star Center. I'm going to call you Star

Avitja Zubach. How do I do with that? I Vita. I've only covered the NBA for 20 years and covered you for nine. I did, I screwed up Evita. So good. I hear it every day. That's why everybody calls you zoo.

I know you too. Everybody calls you zoo. Big zoo. So I got to say, I want to ask you, because I've spent a lot of time covering international basketball, which I've done a lot, I could appreciate. I've heard a lot of Europeans. I've known a lot of European players who've had to leave. their homes when they were really young. And that was your story. You were, I assume, a big,

talented kid, but you left your home when you were 14 years old and moved to Zagra, the capital Croatia. Yeah. And I know this is like an origin story and we're talking about the stuff that's going on with the clippers right now and everything, but I'm always interested. What was that like for you, leaving your house at 4? Did you even know anybody where you were going? No, I got a call. I was actually at 13 when I got to call first. I got a call. I got a got a call from a team in Zagreb called Zibona, and I guess they seen something in me, which no one else saw at the time.

And they invited me for the few tournaments with them, just to go out there to see me. They let me finish my eighth grade back home. And they were like, we want you to come over to Zagreb, stay at our dorm that we have, and play for us. And it was a big decision at the time.

I was 13 going on, turning 14, I had to make a decision to move away to a different country away from my family. So when I got there, I didn't know anyone. I was struggling in the beginning. I didn't play a lot. A lot of my teammates were way better than me. And I started doubting myself. I didn't see.

I didn't know what they saw in me. But I guess with years, you know, I started being better than those guys. I started showing up on the draft boards. And I guess they were right. Well, you weren't, obviously you were tall for your age, but you weren't like super tall then, right? You weren't like six, eight as a 13 year old or anything. You were like, what, like six two? No, I wouldn't say six two.

I would say maybe six, four. Okay. You know, that summer, that one summer, first summer when I got there, I grew, I grew a lot, a lot. And that's what really helped me in my basketball approach. So your cousin, Zoron Plinicic, how did I do it that way? First name was good, last name, Ploninich. Okay, blasted it. So he was a rookie in my first year covering the NBA.

I certainly remember him with the Nets, but I guess it had to help that you had a family member who was an NBA player. Oh, for sure. That's the reason why I started playing it. When he first got drafted, a bunch of us kids back home, we were like, we want to be like him, we want to go. We want to be NBA players. We want to play basketball.

And he helped me a lot, man. And the funny thing is his head coach was Lawrence Frank, who's a president of the Clippers now. So small world, but he definitely helped me a lot and was the reason why I got into basketball at first. I think his rookie year was the year that Byron Scott got fired and Lawrence Frank took over. I'm sure he was part of the player protest as a rookie Croatian who told Byron Scott to get out. I'm sure he was part of that player revolt, no doubt. He was, yeah, he talked to me about that. I don't think he was involved in a decision much.

I'm sure. I'm sure you're right. Jason Kidd might have, might add a little bit more to do with it. I think so, yeah. But you were a Laker fan growing up. Yeah, yeah, that's the, that's the actually, I knew my cousin was in NBA, but I didn't really follow the NBA. I was six, seven at the time. It's impossible to follow the NBA from Europe, from Eastern Europe.

Yeah, yeah, and it's, you know, when you're a kid, you got to go to school. The games are in the middle of the night. Parents don't let you stay up all night. So it was hard to follow. But when I started following an NBA, it was really with that Celtics and Lakers rivalry, where they went to finals a few times.

And that's where I fell in low with Kobe and the Lakers. And then you got to be a Lakers. So you're one of the few players. Not that many guys have ever been a Laker and a Clipper. Yeah. No, I definitely got lucky with that trade. So what's the difference between being a Laker and a Clipper, living in L.A.

You draw much less attention as a clipper than as a Laker. It's a big, it's a big Laker city, and there's a definitely big difference in that aspect. But I really like being part of the Clippers now. And I think we have the best owner in an NBA, an NBA who's so invested in our team, who's making sure we got everything. We got new facility and new arena. It's amazing. I wouldn't want to wish to be anywhere else.

Yeah, so obviously you guys all like him. I'm not saying anything about that, but you guys have to have fun watching Steve Ballmer act like a fool on the baseline. I mean, he's on rip. He doesn't apologize for it. But like, you guys have to kind of laugh at him because he's kind of ridiculous. You should say him after the big wins, once he gets. in the locker room. It's even crazier.

So it's fun, man. It's fun, man. Having an owner like that who really enjoys it and he's very passionate, you know, probably more passionate than us about it, it's really fun. So I want to talk about the start of this season when you guys went to Hawaii. That's another thing he does. He takes you guys to Hawaii a lot. Obviously this year is going to be different. Kawai was not playing. Paul George was gone. But like from the first day, I remember being around your team early in the season, but from the first days of the season, I could tell that, you know, you guys were like, we're going to play hard every night. We're going to defend. You guys have done that. And, you know, you've been a part of all these teams where there were huge expectations. Yeah. And this year you come in and the team had, everybody had low expectations or no expectations. Yeah. And I feel like from talking to people, I wasn't in Hawaii. I wish I was, but I wasn't there. But I feel like it kind of. started at the training camp. So I don't know if, did you feel like what you guys started focusing on training camp made a big difference? For sure. It was the first year, you know, we kind of didn't

have expectations and it was a bunch of like scrappy guys, get role players and and James, really, you know, because we knew Kauai's going to be out for a little bit. So there was no expectations, but we knew, we knew what we got. And our coaching staff kept telling us, you know, we're going to play defense this year. We're going to be scrappy. We're going to turn the teams over. And some guys are going to have bigger roles offensively. But by playing the defense like we play, we're going to have a chance every single night.

And guys really bought in. And once JVG started running our defense, like once you see a guy who's in a gym all day long, first one in a gym, he pulled guys aside, he watching films, individually with everyone. He's ready for, he got every coverage in the book that you can imagine he's ready for it. He can make any adjustment.

He's ready for anything on the court. And when you're led on the defensive end by that guy, you're going to buy in. And that's what happened. Yeah, so this is a guy that Jeff Van Gundy you're talking about, you really didn't know as anything but a television commentator. Exactly. That's what I told him in the beginning.

I was like, you know, I heard you talk on the TV, but I didn't know. I didn't know what you do, how good ever coach you are. And he showed everyone what he does and how committed he is to the basketball. And it's kind of strange that people from the team have told me that it's amazing to watch him and James Harden. These are two guys who are very, very different, but they, like, bonded. Yeah, no, for sure. They did.

They did. He pushed every one of us, you know, to be better defensively, and he did the same with James. He really pushed him, and he wanted more from him. and they bonded over that. Let me ask you this. Let me take it one step back before that. You signed a really nice contract extension last summer. Congratulations on that, by the way.

Thank you. The Clippers were obviously going a certain direction. You know, like they were re, you know, James Harden re-signed, but obviously Paul's gone. Like, did you question whether or not, do I want it? Because you're going into your prime years here. Did you have any doubts? Like, actually, why don't I wait and see what happens with this team?

Obviously, you didn't. I just wanted to know maybe what they told you and what you were thinking. when you signed that? No, I never I never really thought about going anywhere else. I always wanted to be part of this team and I really

like the ownership, the front office, the coaching staff, T. Lou, I would like to play for him as long as I can. His amazing coach and I really want to stay here and it was never really, no matter

who was on the team, I always wanted to stay here but you know James we signing we got quiet getting healthy we're signing all these guys always knew I always knew we're going to be competitive and that we're going to we're going to be good with being led by Tailu so it was never really a question for me and all the people that were saying you know we're going to win 30 games 35 games we're not going to be in a we're not going to be able to make the playoffs I never really took it seriously because I knew what we had on a team. So I always had a belief in this team and it was never really a question of me staying here. You can see that when you guys play. You guys definitely play together and I'm sure

that it started right in the beginning of the season. You guys repeated every night. Yeah. You have an interesting, the way you play with Hardin is really, you know, there's definitely a chemistry there. Like I don't know. I don't know what you thought of him before was your teammate, but obviously you guys really play well together. Yeah. I mean, obviously, only played against him, didn't know him much, but I've seen all the big men that played with him did really well. So I was very happy when we traded for him. And from the first day, he wanted me to stay after practice.

He wanted me to stay after shoot around. Let's work on our two-man pick-and-roll game. So we will have coaches guard us, and we would just play pick-and-roll, a bunch of possessions. And they would mix up different coverages, drop, switch, blitz, whatever. that would mix up and we would just work on the different reads. So we kept doing that for the whole year and you can see it on the court.

He's a really high IQ player. I can read the game at the high level two. So no matter what defense they throw at us, we know how to play it. And it's been amazing. I think he's one of the best pick and roll players ever, if not the best. And it's pretty easy playing with him. Yeah, I think it says a lot that. you're in your ninth year and you're having your best year like you know not everybody has

their best year in their ninth year like you've kept working at it yeah arm pal same thing he's like in his 10th or 11th year he's having his best year yeah i think that says a lot about your team but also james because he's helping you guys have you know some of these guys who are veterans having great years for sure he uh he got a lot of trust and confidence into into each one of us and he's he's pushing us a lot, even when we are not taking some shots that we should take, that we pass up some opportunities. He's always, like, you got to take that shot. When I get the ball in the pocket, when I don't shoot my hook or floater, he's like,

you got best big man touching the league. You got to shoot that. He's always putting confidence in us. And he's very smart. Like, he knows where we like to get our shots from, where we like the ball, what side I like my post up, what size norm. likes to coming off of his handoffs and stuff. So he's like his few steps ahead of everyone. And it's crazy when you see a player like that. He's taught process on the court how fast and

how fast he thinks and how fast he adjust. Isn't it amazing how good his footwork is? People do, I mean, obviously he's been around for a long time. Yeah. But like when you see it like day in and day out, like it's amazing how good. No, it's incredible how he, you know, when he got the when he got an ISO at the top and the way he, when his handle and footwear, how he gets guys, you know, guys are so anxious to guard him.

Like, they're going to jump even when he looks up. Like, uh, it's, it's crazy how he manipulates the defenders. So what's something that's going on right now is your teammates have decided. Your organization,

but you're, they've decided they want you to win defensive player of the year. Yeah. And like, I've seen, you know, look, like teams employ public relations staffs.

and it's their job to do this. And sometimes coaches want to help out their players. And sometimes like front offices want their players, especially if they're going to be free agents to feel good about the team. You're already signed. You're like you're in a long-term contract. But the players are totally bought into. They want you to win it.

Like it's something that's happened. You know, you guys just came off a long road trip. I got to say it hasn't happened very often. And I kind of think, and I'm not on the team, so I don't want to assume. It's kind of got to be an affirming.

moment for you because look you were a second round pick the lakers kept you for a few years traded you you know like you know you were always like maybe the fourth or fifth best player on some of these teams and now you're at the spot we're in the middle of your career and you're having a great year and your teammates are really trying to rally around you kind of because they know you're not really an outspoken guy so this is kind of a cool thing that they're doing this it's been like that since the beginning of the season we we've supported each other so much we would The group is really, is great, man. We got a lot of chemistry.

We like playing each other. We like spending time off the court together. We, you know, just a bunch of guys that are scrappy, that I want to see each other do well. And, you know, just coming into the season, JVG was when I talked to JVG, he told me he wants me to be a defensive player of the year. And I think our defense being this good this year, I think I'm a big part of that. So I'm very happy with the guys supporting me in that way.

You know, it does happen a lot around this league, especially in this league there's a lot of egos and stuff. It's very rarely a team like this. And I knew it was a special year once, beginning of the year. I can't remember how early into the season we were. But Chris Dunn asked me where I, were an all-star before. And I looked at him crazy, you know. I was not even close one time.

So I knew it was a special season for me when guys were asking me. It was an all-star before. And I'm really, you know, being my season nine and making this step. And I think it's only going to get better next year. And hopefully years after that, I'm very happy where I'm at right now. People definitely know when you're coming on the schedule. You've developed a reputation where it's like, oh, man, I got to deal with Zoot. I think so.

I see a lot of double teens lately. So I think I got to that point. Well, your stats, since the All-Star break, you're like, you know, I don't even know what they have. They're 22 and 13. Like, you're putting up big scoring games, which I know isn't always been your forte. But, like, you're really scoring. Well, sure. Yeah.

And, you know, we missed, we missed some games. Norma missed some games. Kaua missed some games. So there was needed more was needed for me. And now when they're back, it's kind of, it's stayed like that, you know, I'm getting more touches. I'm getting more post touches. the pick and roll game with James playing a lot of menace feel good body feels good feeling strong it's uh it feels it feels normal now yeah well you you guys are playing great i think one nine out of

11 as we're recording this one more thing so you've been in the league and you've watched the league transform into like the three-point shooting league it's basically happened during your career yeah all these big guys stepping out and shooting threes that's not been you like you i think you've made one three in your whole career do you remember it i do i do actually it was a against Houston. It was probably the last game of the season. Tilo wanted to sit me out because, you know, we already secured our playoff spot, but I didn't want to, I had a streak or I don't know how many games played in a row.

So he was like, I'm a, you're going to be in for the first play, going to run a high pick and roll, pick and roll, you're in Brondo, you pop, he's going to hit you, shoot the three, and I'm taking you out. And I shot it, I made it, he took me out, and that was it. But I always thought, you know, with all these big shooting threes and doing that kind of stuff, I always thought there's a place for a more traditional big in the league. And I think league is more going back to the bigs again. I feel like there's more and more teams playing with two bigs at the same time.

And I'm very happy about that. Yeah, you're going, you're going, don't change anything. Don't change anything because what you're doing is working. Evitia Zubats. Ivitsa. Evita. Zoo, thank you for your time. Good luck on the rest of the season.

And thanks for stopping by. For sure. Thank you for having me. All right. Thanks to Evita Zubats. I don't know if I got that right, Jacks. But I should need one of those shirts because that's what those shirts that they're passing out to say.

They have his pronunciation on it. So I botched it. All right. Thank you to Kevin Pelton, the machine for stopping by. Thank you to Zubots. Thank you to Jackson, our producer. Thank you for watching. Listen to the Hoot Collective.

We'll talk to you next week.