Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective - Future NBA Stars Who Will Bust Your Brackets This March

Episode Date: March 19, 2025

Brian Windhorst is joined by ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Kevin Pelton to talk the NBA Draft prospects you need to be watching this March as you fill out your brackets for the NCAA Tournament including Cooper Flagg’s ceiling, Kon Knueppel’s All-Star potential, some players who could become stars and who you will be hearing more from soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, sports fans, the ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place. The ESPN app is your home to thousands of live events, ESPN shows, and originals across every ESPN network and service. And now you can check if you already have ESPN Unlimited as part of your TV package for no additional calls. Visit activate.esPN.com to learn how to access your account or sign up, then start streaming in the ESPN app. It's all of ESPN all in one place. Sign up or activate now. Hello, welcome to the Hoot Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, except for that's not what we're actually going to do this week, because it's the NCAA tournament, and we're going to talk about the NCAA prospects who are soon to be NBA players.

Joining us is the dean of college basketball, amateur scouting, our guy at ESPN, and also one of the most fascinating of all my coworkers over the decades from New York City, Jonathan Gavoni. What's up, Wendy? What's up? We're getting into nitty-gritty time for you for the next three, four months. So I hope you're ready. I know you are. Joining us from Seattle, where the computer is on, the machine, Kevin Pelton.

We got multiple computers running today because I have to use my old one for the video. So there you are. How is UW's post-season situation? Well, the UWW women made the NCAA tournament. They're in the first four. And it's the first time either the men or the women have made it since 2019. So it's been a long time since we've actually had something to follow on selection Sunday. Long, long overdue.

Okay, so Gavoni has been tracking some of these prospects since they were 12. Pelton has been tracking them very closely, statistically, for the last couple of years. Two things we're going to talk about here. We may mention some guys who are not in the tournament, but I want to focus mostly on the guys who are going to be playing this week and next week and the week after. you know, if you're thinking about who your team might draft or you're interested in who to keep an eye on. Secondly, you guys have to talk to me like I'm a five-year-old child here. I do not watch almost any college basketball.

I have watched some of Cooper Flagg. The rest of these, you know, and I mean, I've seen some of these guys play in when they've played international competition, like come on Mal Yuck from Duke. But I last saw him play last summer in the Olympics. I really haven't watched it much this year. So you guys have to treat me like I know nothing, which Bond Thompson McMahon prefer to do anyway. That's the other thing. And so Jonathan, ESPN has a ranking.

You did a mock draft last week that you updated it. So if you want to look back to see that, to see where you think certain teams are going to go with certain prospects, you can do that. But you've got some updated stuff this week, specifically. you're looking at the top players that are in the NCAA tournament. And I guess we should start with the guy who's number one on all the lists. The guy you've had number one for a long time.

That's Cooper Flagg at Duke. Yeah. I mean, he came in with incredibly high expectations. And I honestly thought, like, there's no way he's going to meet them just because the hype was out of control, honestly, like for several years now, too. And I always thought he was a phenomenal player. But I was like, man, 17 years old, going in. to, you know, the oldest college basketball that we've seen in a long time. And he smashed right through those and, you know, exceeded them by any measure. Was the best player in college basketball this

year. Duke is ranked number one. You know, has gotten better and better throughout the year. They played a really challenging non-conference schedule. And they put the ball in his hands right away. And they said, you're a guy, Cooper. So you go to work. And there were some growing pains early on that first month of the year. I mean, they played against Auburn, Arizona, Kansas. I mean, they had a really, really challenging schedule. And he just got better and better and better as the year moved on. His shooting, you know, he's been on another level for the last two months now. And that was, that was one of the big questions about him. And then his ball handling has really, really improved as well. You know, everybody always thought he's, you know, an incredible defender. He's an incredible

glue guy. He does a little bit of everything. He's a great pastor. He impacts. winning in so many different ways. All that is true, but he really carried Duke at the same time. You know, 30 plus percent usage rate, you know, turned 18 December 21st. And, you know, like, they lost one game in the ACC. So there's really nothing, you know, to nitpick about Cooper flag at this point. You know, he's easily, you know, the number one pick. There's no question about it anymore. Really the question the NBA teams are asking, they say, you know, where do we put him in terms of number one picks of the past. How do you rank him compared with a Victor Wimbaniama, an Anthony Davis, a LeBron James, you know, those type of guys? And I think it's a great question,

really. I mean, I don't think that he's, you know, maybe an MVP caliber guy like, like Victor Wimbeniama, but you can't put a ceiling on him, just the way that he's improved, how young he is, you know, the many different ways that, you know, that he impacts winning. So, you know, really, really high level prospect. And I think we're all, we all kind of are breathing a sigh of relief here because, you know, first round of the ACC, the quarterfinals, he goes down with what looked like a really nasty ankle injury. You know, I mean, I looked at it right away. I said, that's a high ankle sprain. That might be four to six weeks. That might be the NCAA tournament for Cooper Flagg. And thankfully, it turned out to be very minor. It looks like he might even play on Friday

here. Oh, wow. In their opening round. And if he misses that one, he's almost certainly going to be back for Sunday, provided they, you know, they beat that one, that 16 seed. So, I mean, I think a lot, a lot was writing on that as far as, you know, ratings and attention and all that. And I mean, it would have been a shame, obviously for Duke's season to, you know, to end that way. But, you know, the rest of their team, pretty good too. Won the ACCC tournament without Cooper Flag. They have two other guys projected as top 10 picks in Kaman Malawachi, you just mentioned, and Khan Kanupil, who won MVP of the tournament and really carried a big load with Cooper Flagg out. I think that's huge for Duke's outlook here in the NCAA tournament.

They have a lot of different pieces, a lot of different guys. You know, it's not just the Cooper Flagg show. So, I mean, I think this is what, you know, the college basketball executives and everybody was hoping for that, you know, you have a guy who's the star, you know, the face of college basketball at this point, playing for the best team. and let's see how far they can go. This is going to be really fun to watch. Pelton, at the beginning of the season,

I'd say the beginning, maybe last summer. You know, I had a couple of scouts who I trusted say, look, Cooper Flagg is awesome. He definitely is at the top of our board, but I'm not saying it's a slam dunk. Like, you know, they were praising these other guys, you know, the guys that Jonathan and Jeremy Wu have two and three,

or Dylan Harper, two, Ace Bailey three and his mock, place mock, didn't make the tournament. So, you know, I don't know what that's, says for them. But I got, you know, guys tell me, guys, I respect guys who've been doing it for 20 plus years, say, yeah, I like Cooper Flag a lot, but I'm not, you know, writing it in that he's for sure the number one pick. I want to see how this season goes. And as Jonathan said, that's changed. How have you seen from your perspective how it's played out for him? Yeah, I think as Jonathan mentioned, one of the things that really struck me last weekend, we were both at the Sloan Sports

Analytics Conference in Boston. And, you know, I had a pretty high impression of Cooper and Cooper flag based on my projections, which we'll talk about in a second and watching him play. And then I started talking to, you know, NBA people, primarily analytics people. And I was a little blown away that they're talking about him is one of the top handful of number one picks, you know, in the last couple of decades here is basically a generational type of prospect. And that I think does play out statistically to a degree. If you look among number one picks, this is something that Tim Bontemson and I are going to write about more later this week and specifically the way that it's affecting how teams are playing out the last month and a half of

this season as they try to get in position to get the number one pick. But, you know, among number one picks in my projections, right now it's, and this goes back to 2005, that's the date I have. Anthony Davis is number one, Zion Williamson number two, and then Cooper slots in right now at number three. And, you know, one of the things that Jonathan highlighted, this guy doesn't really have any weaknesses. One of the categories I use in my projections is, areas where players are in the bottom quarter among all prospects at their position at the time they're entering the NBA. And Cooper is the only player in this year's draft who is not in the bottom 25% of any of those skill-based categories I use. So this is someone who's come in very complete

and is shown, I think, more upside in terms of his shot creation as Jonathan was talking about during this freshman season. And I'm kind of amazed, like the hype coming into the year was rather big. The hype at last year's Hoop Summit was big. I'm kind of amazed that Cooper is doing this. he's possibly the national player of the year on the number one team in the country. And there hasn't been more hype during the season. But I think we will start to see it if they make a long tournament run. Which there was certainly for Zion, you know. Zion.

He doesn't move the needle like from a media standpoint the way that you would think in terms of the ratings and all that, you know, like, I'm surprised that like the, that America hasn't like gravitated to Cooper flag anywhere near the way that they did Zion Williamson a few years ago. You know, Zion, I mean, it was like double and triple. like the ratings that they got. And so I think people are missing the boat a little bit here. Interesting. So Pelton, before we move beyond Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, their Rutgers went 17 and 15. I don't think they're playing any postseason tournaments. I think they turn them down. Just real quick, because we'll talk about them a lot when we get into May and June. How did you feel they performed?

How did your model feel they performed this year? Yeah, I think people are very surprised at this idea. And it is going to be historic if there's two top five picks who don't make the NCAA tournament. And I think I saw Matt Lorlander at CBS Sports do that research, but surely others as well. And I have a perspective on this because I happen to see the number one pick in the draft, Markell Fultz, during his season at UW, where they went two and 16 in conference play. And Lorenzo Romar got fired after the season, in part because Fultz, you know, sat out, was dealing with some injuries late in the year. But it really was kind of revealing in terms of, you know, number one, even the best freshman,

with the possible exception of Cooper, typically are not as good as the best. upper classmen. So, you know, that season, Markell Fultz was replacing Andrew Andrews, who's a name that Jonathan knows, I'm sure, but I don't know how many of the listeners remember who's... I don't know who is. Just a European veteran at this point has never really sniffed the NBA. But he was, as productive is a fifth year senior as Fultz was, is a freshman. So it's like very challenging to build your team around these types of players, especially if you don't have much depth. And this Rutgers team did not have really almost any other shot creation, except for those two guys. They really missed Cliff Omeroo.

shooting. They had no bigs. They had nothing, honestly. I mean, I live 45 minutes away from Rutgers. So I went to a dozen games this year. I never once walked away from there saying, you know, I'm really disappointed in the way that those guys look. And I'm really questioning their outlook as prospects. Sorry to cut you up. But like, I don't, you know, I, in this era of college basketball, you have to surround your players with high major caliber players. You can't just go grab any old mid major, low major guy just because he was born in the state of And that's where I think Rutgers really failed these guys is that every time that Dylan Harper was, you know, playing pick and roll. He had two guys collapsing on him and a third guy, you know, cheating off the corner ready to dig down. So it's like there was nowhere for him to go.

So there were moments where he was overpassing. And then there were moments where he was running into brick walls. And neither of them looked great. But he still had an incredible season. And the same thing with Ace Bailey, you know, like a lot more up and down than Dylan Harper from an efficiency standpoint. But I know people are knocking. the assist numbers and all that. And I totally agree with that.

But if you actually watch the games, Ace Bailey was making four or five great passes every single game that didn't, you know, turn into anything because there's just zero shooting on this team. And so it's just, you know, like KPSA and it's just so hard to build a roster like that where it's like, you know,

basketball is a team sport. They're, you know, there are five guys, they're 10 guys in the court at all times. If, if three of them can't play, then it just makes things so much harder for the other two.

That reminds me of our former colleague, Amina al-Hasson, And he was in the son's front office when Steph Curry was coming up. And they were obviously heavily scouting him. They wanted him really bad. And they were charting every one of his games. And there was a play around Davidson's team. I don't remember his name.

And I'm not going to embarrass him. But let's just say his name was Joe Jones. And he just maybe just didn't always finish on Steph passes. So like they would be like a statistical report. You know, like, okay, last night Steph played Wofford. He was, you know, eight of 15, you know, six of nine on three. he had seven assists and there were four Joneses, you know, which was an indication that he threw a pass and if it was not to Mr. Jones would have resulted in assists, but they actually tracked it this way. So I'm wondering how some NBA teams might attract Rutgers this year.

More Hoop Collective Podcast after this. Okay. The next guy that you've got, Jonathan, in your rankings is Baylor's BJ Edgecom. This is a guy that you have been talking about for quite some time. and I actually should point out that, you know, I'm not given Baylor a first round win against Mississippi State. Everybody's raving about the SEC. I'm not messing with that.

I didn't watch, but I'm sure Mississippi State is a great team. However, having said that, if Cooper is healthy by Sunday and Baylor beats Mississippi State on Friday, Sunday you could possibly have Vijay Hedgecom against Cooper Flag. But what about Vijay Edgecom should I know about, Jonathan? Well, we saw Vijay Edgecombe's value this past summer already in the FIBA Olympic qualifying tournament in Spain where he went up. First of all, he had on his team, DeAndre Aiton, Buddy Healed, Eric Gordon. He was by far the best player on that team. But the Bahamas.

Right there. And then going up against Jeremy Sohan with Poland, a very, very good Spanish team and was phenomenal. You know, so right there, you could say, I mean, I mean, this guy is ready to play in the NBA tonight, you know, like now he's going to play a year in college. His year in college was actually a little bit up and down. And I think it's a, it's not a very, that different of a scenario situation than Rutgers. Baylor had a lot more money. They just didn't spend it very well. And he was not, you know, put in the best position.

I mean, he was, he was playing small forward for a big part of the year, two bigs alongside him who can't shoot. And so, you know, the first, I think, third to half of the year, they were really trying to figure out what's the best way to utilize him. You know, finally they started bringing Jeremy Roach off the bench and they put the ball in his hands a little bit more. I mean, Vichael is probably the most athletic player in college basketball. It's either him or Cohen Carr from Michigan State. And he gets anywhere he wants on the floor of them. But he's got some real skill now, too, in terms of his ball handling, his passing, is finishing. He made gigantic strides with his outside shooting.

in Big 12 play. Had some monster games, you know, has huge upside on the defensive end. He plays exceptionally hard. He blocks shots. He gets steel as he gets rebounds. I mean, he's a very, very safe guy. But the upside is, you know, tremendous at the same time. I mean, people are very excited about this group as a whole Cooper flag.

Obviously is the headliner, Dylan Harper, too. But this, you know, the whole top five part of the draft is, you know, very, very enticing. And VJECOM is a big reason for that. Let's hope, you know, that we get this matchup with Cooper Flagg. That'd be awesome. You know, but not, you know, Baylor definitely not the best year for them in terms of, you know, just a talent that they assembled. Yeah, which is why they're in this eight, nine matchup, you know, hoping to win to end up against the number one seed for a chance to go to the Sweet 16. You know, Jonathan sort of laid it out, but it wasn't really an up and down season forage come so much. It was a down than up season and he was so much better in conference play.

the other element of it getting to the basket much more frequently than we saw early on. And I think still some development to do there as a finisher, but the steel and block rates really jump off the page. And if you're looking at the top five guys in Jonathan's rankings, if you look at most of these statistical projections like mine, I think the pure stats only version is going to have Cooper number one among those guys. And then probably Vijay Edgecom a lot of the time, number two, over Dylan Harper, despite the fact that Dylan Harper had a terrific season. And it's nothing that he did wrong. It's just that edge comes stats projections are so strong. The guy that you've got fifth, you know, he may even be out by the time this is on television. And that's Trey Johnson, Jonathan, from Texas, another team that kind of underwhelmed.

A lot of people think their coach is going to be fired as soon as the season is over. He's a 6-6-6-wing. What should we know about Trey Johnson? He's just a scoring machine. I mean, think about, you know, like a bigger, longer. better passing, Cam Thomas is what Trey Johnson is. He's just an absolute bucket getter. Scores from everywhere on the floor can do it one-on-one out of pick and roll,

you know, spotting up, coming off screens, had, you know, multiple 30-point games in the SEC as an 18-year-old. That's not easy to do, you know. And so they just snuck into the NCAA tournament here late and we'll see if they even get out of, you know, the play-ins in Dayton. But, yeah, I mean, 6'5, 6-10 wingspin, scores like he breathes. I mean, that's, you know, that's what the NBA is looking for. So that's, he's a pretty easy guy to project.

The question is, you know, how much can he drive winning? You know, like the defensive side was very poor at times this year. There were a lot of moments with bad shot selection, with bad body language, where he put his head down, struggled to get by people. A lot of tough shots in the mid-range. You know, I mean, that's not unique to a guy who is 18 years old playing in the toughest conference in college basketball and didn't have, you know, a great set of teammates around them also.

But, you know, it's kind of been the story of Trey Johnson's career, even in other settings too. So I'm very interested to see how NBA teams look at him. KP, what does your model say about Trey Johnson? Yeah, he's up there just outside the top five when you factor in his rank in the top 100. His stats only projection is not as strong. And I think you nailed it with the comp. We need to start disagreeing more often.

But that's exactly who I've been thinking about is Cam Thomas. And he is bigger and longer at 6 foot 6. We need to see him put those tools to use more at the defensive end. I thought the game where they crashed out of the SEC tournament against Tennessee was sort of revealing. The volunteers were repeatedly trying to put him in pick and roll. and target him defensively. And he ended up dealing with some foul trouble in that game coming off playing, I think, 44 minutes the night before in their double overtime win that probably ultimately was what got

them this spot in the tournament. So, you know, I think, as you said, it's a matter of can, can he do more than just create his own shot at the next level? And I do start to worry a little bit about guys whose strength at the college level. You can say this may be a little bit about Base Bailey as well, although, as you noted, the team factors are a concern there. If your strength is hitting contested shots at the college level, those often become unmakable shots at the NBA level. I go back to when we were all sort of starting out in this industry, Adam Morrison at Kinsega.

I watched him play a ton, obviously, being in the state of Washington, saw one of his best game winners against Oklahoma State at Ki Arena back in the day. And he was an incredible shotmaker at the college level, got to the NBA level, and some of those became too difficult for him to even get off. Now, Trey Johnson is much younger, has a lot of room to develop, and Adam Morrison's development was obviously slowed by the ACL injury he had in the NBA. But, you know, that's kind of, I guess, the concern for me is, you know, can he score efficiently in the NBA level? Like Cam Thomas has proven he can do. I want to cover the other two Duke guys because you have him ranked six and seventh

on your list, Jonathan Con Canuppel and Kamal Maluuk. I have to just say, don't know anything about college basketball. I wouldn't dream of trying to reject this tournament at all. However, I would say that historically, when you see teams win the title or get very close to the title, a lot of times it's because they've got two or three NBA players on the roster. It doesn't mean that you're guaranteed, but a lot of times you see that.

I'm looking at your rankings here. I see three Duke guys in the top seven, and the other players that you have ranked high, their teams are not really contenders for the title. So I would say, I don't know how Duke couldn't be the over. And maybe they are, I think they are the number one overall seed. But like, based on this, I would, I can't see how Duke isn't just the overwhelming favorite. But what have you seen from these two guys?

Kamon is a guy that you told me about, I think, two or three years ago, Jonathan and sent me through the rain in, in Manila to watch the South Sudanese qualify for the, for the Olympics. And it was a great moment for him. I think he was 16 at the time. So, but, um, these two guys obviously have had good. seasons as well. Great seasons. They've both, you know, far exceeded expectations. I mean, what Kamand Malawatch did on Saturday night in the ACC tournament championship on the defense event was incredible. I mean, switching on every screen, hedging out to half court, you know, staying with guards and, turning his hips, you know, meeting guys back at the rim. Only two blocks. Now, he doesn't block a ton of

shots, but he changes everything. And so I don't know how, you know, you really account for that from an analytic standpoint. But I think, I'm pretty sure they have the number one or number two defense in college basketball. And a lot of that is because of Kamamala Watch. People don't even challenge him in the pain at this point. He's so long and he's so mobile and he plays so hard that, I mean, he is going to anchor an NBA defense for many, many years to come. You know, and he's also a great rebound. and he's not a skilled offensive player, but he knows what his role is. He's a very good screen setter.

He's learned how to rescreen, roll to the room with timing, present himself for finishes, you know, be a lob threat, you know, go follow misses, runs the floor, you know, really, really well, just really, really, really physical. I only been playing basketball for, you know, I think around five years now. so still has a lot of room to improve. Everybody raves about his character, just to the joy that he brings, you know,

how selfless, you know, of a human being he is. He does have a really good persona in the times I've talked to him. Yeah, I mean, and that's going to help him, I think, quite a bit. You know, every time I go to, you know,

I went to a Duke practice, just the stories that would come out from everybody in the support staff. I mean, how beloved this guy is. I mean, that really does play a factor in whether, you know, like a raw player reaches potential. A lot of it has to do with work ethic and character and just that buy-in that he's going

to have, you know, he's not a guy who he knows who he is as a basketball player, but I went to watch them practice. He's going to be a very good shooter in time, too. I'm convinced of it. He only takes a handful of threes right now. He only made a handful of threes. But just watching his footwork and his mechanics and the touch and all that, I think he's going to be a guy that ends up stretching the floor. I'm really high and come on model watch.

The other guy, Concanipple, a little bit divisive among NBA people, just because, you know, doesn't have very long arms. It's kind of like people call it like a fire hydrant, you know, body. Yeah, players in this zone, sort of the back half of the lottery with this profile, have burned GMs in the past. Is that fair to say that? Maybe they have, but he's not going to. He is going to be an absolute star in the NBA. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being an All-Star. He's going to do everything on the basketball court. People look at him.

They're like, yeah, he's a white guy from Wisconsin. He's going to be a shooter. Yeah, he's a shooter. He's a great shooter. But he does way more than that. When Cooper Flagg gets hurt, they put the ball in Concanipo's hands. He basically was playing point guard for them for a big part of the year. He led them in pick and roll usage.

He's a great passer. He has an outstanding field for the game. Physical, competitive. You know, not a high flyer. People worry about him defensively. I have no zero concerns about him on the defensive. I mean, he's six, seven. I mean, you may have short arms, but he's got good size.

He's not undersized. He's always in the right spots. Yeah, I mean, like, he just has a knack for understanding where to be. He knows his scouting report. I think Khan Kinpo is going to be a big-time NBA player. I think he's going to be like a Clay Thompson. That's what I think. That's my company.

Pelton, these are strong words from a man who does not hand them out easily. That is very true in both counts. Canipal is someone who, after I incorporated the, that Nike EYBL from 2023 into my projections, just finally got that all cleaned up that data and ready to go. And Knappel played well enough in the EYBL that he shot up to number two in the overall projections ahead of VJ Edgecombe behind only good play. I can already look forward to the summer.

The eyes of Gavoni likes them, the computers of Pelton likes him. I'm rubbing my hands together here thinking about what this could mean, guys. Okay. But we'll see. I mean, not everybody, not all the NBA guys have them in the top 10. So I'm very curious to see how this plays out. This reminds me of Reed Shepherd last year. I mean, obviously Reed Shepherd is not 6'7.

But I talked to some guys last year who were ready to adopt Reed Shepherd and other guys who said I wouldn't draft him with the 10-foot pole. And he can't get on the court this year because of defensive issues. So again, not that they're the same player, but I'm just saying, like it reminds me of that type of discussion. They're cut from the same cloth in terms of just the way that the attitude that they bring and the skill level and the field for the game and all that. I mean, that there is, that's what John Shire told me, you know, like a year ago.

He said, you were going to absolutely love con can nipple. This guy is like Reed Shepard with four more inches. Yeah. Which helps a lot. All right. Now, now we're going to go to this point guard from Illinois. You have my think as the, Jonathan, you've got him as the number eighth prospect from Vilnius, Lithuania, which is home to many terrific Eastern European prospects.

over the decades. Definitely comes from a track record of an area that produces players. But is that Illinois? Casperus, Yaku Jonas. Yaku Chonis. Yaku Chonis. Big point guard here. And I'm looking forward to watching him an international play. I'm sure he's going to be a big part of the Lithuanian national team going forward. Jonathan, what do you like about this guy? Great size for a point guard, six foot six, tough, plays with pace, has a great feel for the game.

big-time playmaker out of pick and roll. Just dissect defenses can make, you know, every pass that you want out of ball screens. And it brings big-time shot-making prowess too. You know, can hit pull-up, stepbacks, good in the mid-range. You know, just plays an unselfish, intelligent brand of basketball. But, you know, gets the rim finishes, plays through contact. I mean, he was looking like an almost surefire top five pick for most of the season really hit a rough pass. The last six weeks of the season has really struggled to make shots, made some very, very questionable decisions with the ball in his hands. You know, so I'm really curious to see how they come out here in the NCAA tournament.

You know, how does he finish the year? You know, only 18 years old. We don't usually see these kind of players come to college basketball, you know, like was signed in Barcelona, was on track to be, you know, a big time player in Spain. Instead, you know, changes course, gets a big. NIL deal. Illinois recruits the heck out of him. He comes. He's starting the big time. He hit a little bit of a wall, you know, but I think that that's going to happen to 18 year olds who haven't gone through this type of season. The big tennis is a very, very physical league. You know, he's getting beaten up every single time he steps on the court. So I'm still a big fan, but there's a segment of the NBA population who,

you know, didn't really turn their attention fully to the draft up until about two months ago. And they're kind of looking at Yaku Chona saying, what's all the fuss about? Yeah, Pelton. So I think there's two matchups in this NCAA tournament that NBA scouts are really going to want to like one team to win to set up the matchup. And so we already talked about Baylor in their first round and potentially getting to do. The other one would be Texas and Trey Johnson in the first four. Who are they going up against Xavier? If they can win and set up a matchup against Illinois that we could get Trey Johnson versus Yacuchonis.

and have another batch up of top 10 prospects in the first round in this case. That would be, I think, very exciting. And, you know, I described Yakichonis to Timbontemps when we were watching games together in Boston a couple weeks ago. And, you know, I compared him to Goran Dragich. He's not left-handed, but he does use his left-hand very well and kind of plays a little bit left-handed, I would say, and the same kind of big physical guard. We've seen the success that Goran Dragich had doing that in both the NBA and international competition. I think the swing skill for that is going to be having the shooting on a consistent basis.

And the other thing that holds back, Yaku-Chonis and the projections, is not very high steel and block rates. Okay. So this is a guy. You've got ninth, I believe, who's, I think after Cooper Flagg, the second youngest guy in the draft, at least that I can see, Jonathan. Jeremiah Fears from Oklahoma, another point card who I don't remember seeing rank this high earlier this season, but don't hold me to that. I could be wrong. No, I mean, he definitely, listen, he was, he's supposed to be in high school right now. He decided to reclassify in the summer. He was actually originally committed to Illinois to play in 26, but played in the EYBL and then decided, hey, I'm going to go get that money. And so he, you know, he felt ready. And he enrolled at Illinois, who had a huge needed point guard,

Porter Mosef with the ball in his hands. And, you know, he had an awesome year. You know, he's been one of the best freshmen in college basketball, six foot four, gets anywhere he wants in the court. Tremendous ball handler has great pace, plays through contact a lot better than you would think for a guy with his frame, you know, just oozing with talent. And so they made the NCAA tournament, which is a big accomplishment for them. They're going to play against the Yukon in the first round. Not an easy one at all, but I think that's going to be a very interesting matchup just because you're going to people get to see fears who is ranked in the top 10. Ian McNeely, who is a projected lottery pick. So that's, you know, the way that the bracket shaped up is really been awesome for all of us. You know, I was thinking about Pelton is in the mock

draft that Jonathan put out last week with Jeremy Wu at ESPN. And granted, it can change a lot, but right now he's got, he's got fears going to Houston at the number 11 pick. And again, who knows whether it would actually be the number 11 pick. But this is the pick that Phoenix actually has to send to Houston. This is exactly the type of player that Phoenix would need. I mean, this is exactly the type of player. Any of these point cards would be the exact type of player the Phoenix would need. And a young player. Yeah.

Sorry not to, yeah, sorry not to take astray of the Suns fans. I didn't mean to be mean. But sorry, go ahead, Pelton. Yeah, I think Fears, it's interesting that it's Oda at Oklahoma, this really high usage role. So kind of similar in some ways to Trey Young during his season there. Obviously not that kind of shooter, Jeremiah fears. But, you know, still reasonably efficient for a college freshman,

given that enormous volume that he was handling. And I think that's what, you know, makes him exciting from a statistical standpoint. So, yeah, I mean, I have him in the consensus projections in the top 10 as well. And, you know, in addition to McNeely, I think curious to see him go up against solo ball. He was at a nice sophomore season for Yukon in the back court. All right. So wrap it up the top 10 here. Derek Queen, a freshman from Maryland.

I know Maryland has had a good run recently. I finally got a big here, Jonathan. And this is a top 10 here that were Malewa is the only guy he was really what you would classify as a big man in your top 10. But this guy, you know, makes your top 10 at Maryland a little older 20 years old, but you must like him for a reason. I mean, the skill level is off the charts. People compare him to like Alperin Shingun. That's, you know, his style of play. Great hands, great in the post, big time pick and roll finish.

you know, very good operating in the mid post, creating his own shot, can really, really pass the ball. Not a great shooter and definitely not a great defender. Those are the two areas that people want to see him improve on. A little bit stuck between positions. He's six foot nine. You know, is he a four? Is he a five? Who does he guard? Can he stretch the floor? You know, there's a certain threshold you need to reach to be able to play that operating Shangoon or DeMontes-Sabonis type role where, you know, the offense is being run through you. And people are willing to live with some of your defensive mistakes. And we're going to see if Derek Queen can reach that threshold.

I mean, the productivity has been phenomenal, especially here late in the year. Maryland had a great season. He was, you know, big ten freshman in the year. A little bit older, like you said, but, you know, coming to the NBA ready to play from a skill level standpoint, from a physical standpoint, you know, not a lot to nipic, especially on the offensive end. All right, this is a case where the projections diverge a little bit. You'll remember that.

I love it. Elperon Shenkoon was number one in my model going into that year's draft when he ended up getting taken, I think, 14th. Yeah, and the, the Thunder traded out of the pick. Like, the Rockets traded up to it. Yeah, speaking of things, the Rockets benefited from in the draft. But, you know, last year's draft had a couple of really highly rated centers statistically in Donovan Klingin and Zach Eadie. This year, I think in part because of the fact that the production that those guys had set the bar so high, like, therefore, the, the, the, centers, you know, aren't really rating as well, at least for me statistically, in this year's draft. And Queen is part of that group where, you know, the two point percentages for centers tend to be so high. I guess I never talked about Malawatch at all. He's kind of similar, I think, in many ways to Mark Williams, who's guy we've heard a lot about on the hoop collective lately. And, you know, he's shooting like 70% plus from the field. Derek Queen, because of the

fact, in part because he's spending so much time, you know, on the perimeter or facing up and playing that way, shot 56%, which, you know, now is. is compared to NBA centers in the NBA is about average. So you're going to probably subtract a little bit from that as you make the transition from college to pro. So for all of those reasons, he doesn't come out very well. And I think if you're looking for kind of a pessimistic comparison,

the guy I think about sometimes in terms of like just not quite skilled enough to get the usage that he did in college when I watch Queen is Thomas Bryant. All right. One guy before we go down the list a little bit, I think we should just bring up because I think he's going to make a run and people will know the name. And that's Jace Richardson, who followed his dad, Jason, to Michigan State. Michigan State's two seed won the Big Ten regular season.

Six three, you know, combo guard shot the heck out of the ball. Gavoni, what should I be looking at with Jace Richardson? So he was pretty much like a three-and-d guy for them for most of the season, coming off the bench. We're just parked in the corner like a lot of freshmen do for Tom Izzo. So they had Jeremiah Fears' brother, Jeremy Fears, is the point guard. He got sick. They put Jeremiah, they put J.S. Richardson in the starting lineup.

And he's just taken off since then. Just, you know, way more aggressive with the ball, playing more pick and roll now. It has a great pace to his game. Theo for the game is a big time shot maker. Playes really, really hard. Some questions about, you know, the upside. He's measured at six foot two. He's not exactly a pure point guard.

He's really most looking for his own, but, you know, really smart, tough, incredibly efficient. I'm curious, KP, what does the model say about Jace Richardson? He's a very high, like, BPM guy. I mean, he's a very high efficiency guy. What does your model think about him? Yeah, I think the fact that he came on late is maybe hurting him a little bit here. He's got a lot of strength. We talked about that earlier, guys that are in, like, the top 25% of players at their position.

his two point percentage, he's getting to the free throw line, his turnover rate, then, you know, his assist, he's untreating him as a combo guard and his usage are still kind of low because of that first part of the season. So, you know, he ends up in my overall projections about where he is in the top 100, but definitely excited about what I've seen from him down the stretch. I hadn't seen him play in a little while until I tuned into the big 10 tournament this weekend. And I was shocked to see how much he was handling the ball and how many pick and rolls they had going to his left getting middle. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. All right, let's talk about some guys that are down the board that you guys are excited about, or at least want to talk about. So Pelton, you mentioned Isaiah Evans, a wing who's at Duke freshman. I know nothing about him.

What should I know? This guy is coming in firing for Duke off the bench. He's going to get threes up and get them up in a hurry. And it's interesting because in many ways he's the type of player my model should not like. He has very low steel in block rates, which usually tend to be very important. The block rate actually is decent, at least in the EYBL level, but not filling out the box goal with rebounds, assistance steals at all. And the three point percentage that he's had this season, which I think is, you know,

in the mid-40s, get to regress pretty heavily to the mean the way that my model works, because it's just not that large a sample of attempts. And yet still, because of the three-point volume, he is in the pure stats model, number two, behind Cooper Fleck. I would not endorse that. I do not think he is the number two prospect, but I am very fascinated to see what this translates into. I'm so excited that a guy that Givoni has in the 40s is number two. Oh my God. Not the first time. I know. I know. It makes me so happy, John. You guys may have heard it's something the Lakers did with the 55th pick last year. It was

minorly discussed throughout the last 10 months or so. They potentially had the 55th thing again this year. Again, I'm just messing around. But that is where Jonathan has this guy. No, 46. I'm sorry, you have them 55th in your mock with Jeremy. All right. Just to be clear, I was, yeah. Last week, yeah, yeah. But 46th in the NCAA tournament list.

Now, this is interesting to me because I'm out here in the Midwest, and, you know, Drake is three-state NCAA tournaments, a lot of interest in Drake in this part of the country. Bennett Sturtz, Pelton. Why do I need to know the name Bennett Sturtz? You know, I kept seeing at the start of the season, And I always get the sports reference daily email, digestive college basketball. And like the wind shares leaders in the country.

And there's, you know, Janiy Broom and Cooper Flagg, the guys who were in the National Player of the Year conversation. And then this guy I've never heard of, Bennett Sturts from Drake. And that's the sort of situation where I always tend to send Jonathan a text saying, what's up with this guy? What's his deal? And his story is kind of fascinating because he followed his coach, Ben McCollum, from, Were they D2 last year?

Not Division 1. Yeah. So this is his first year that we have any stats for him that I can use in my model. And when I finally got him added, you know, he's a little older at 21. We only have the one season of data. So he didn't quite break the model the way I was expecting, but he is in the top 30 overall comfortably. And it's one of those funny things where, you know, you see these guys their numbers. I had never seen him play until I happened to catch their conference championship in the arch madness,

the best name conference tournament against Bradley. And a lot of fun to watch because you see the steel rate, it translates into a lot of activity at the defensive end, you know, a lot of distribution at the offensive end and someone who can shoot. So I'm curious. Are NBA teams believing this? A lot of NBA guys were asking me about Bennett Sturts at the Sloan conference last week. I mean, their models are obviously similarly calibrated to yours.

You know, they're seeing that, you know, on a per possession basis, he really. really fills up the box score with rebounds and steals and and assist and points and scores it very efficiently. He actually leads college basketball in minutes played. He plays over 40 minutes per game because I guess they went to an overtime or two and he never comes off the floor otherwise. They play the slowest pace in college basketball. And so that's where, you know, his, you know, the per possession stuff is really amplified for him. They've only played one NCA tournament team all year in Vanderbilt. And I would say he had, you know, a good, not a great game. And so I'm just very, very curious to see they're playing Missouri in the NCAA tournament.

If they beat them, you know, they'll move on to play Texas Tech potentially. So, I mean, that's what I would love to see is just a higher level competition because, you know, they milked the shot clock. They play so slow. He really struggles to beat people off the dribble, you know, against switches, you know, getting in the paint and finishing, very frail frame. You wonder how he would hold up, you know, on the defensive end against better players. But I love the way that this guy play. I love the feel for the game, the pick and roll, playmaking prowess, you know, the shot making and the confidence and the poise and just the whole package, honestly, it is awesome to watch.

I watched a couple of games from the conference tournament. and it's fun. So, I mean, he's moved up on our board. I'm really curious to see how it looks against Missouri. You know, just their whole deal, everything they do is almost the exact opposite of how the NBA plays in terms of the pace and all that. So I'm curious to see how it translates against a much faster-paced opponent in Missouri. Well, Ben McCollum is a name that has gotten a lot of attention in the Midwest this year because this is a guy who was a head coach at Northwest Missouri State for, what, 15 years? he won three or four Division II National Championships.

It might have won another because they had this run where they won three out of four or something and the COVID canceled it. They didn't play it. And he comes to Drake, brings players with them. They're immediately in the assembly tournament and he's playing Missouri. Obviously, when you're at Northwest Missouri State,

you're looking at the big school Missouri. How many times did Missouri make a hire? How many times those 15 years? That Missouri job opened several times. And, you know, he never got it. it. And so now he's playing Missouri with a chance to go. And Indiana is open now. And he's apparently this was to be one of the leading candidates or Iowa, you know, where he's from. Yeah. I mean, Iowa might have fired Fran McCaffrey to hire him. Right. We'll see. The reason Indiana's been

rumored is that, you know, Indiana hired Kirk Signetti, you know, from James Madison. Not that I'm comparing James Madison to Northwest Missouri State, but, you know, a guy who had success at a lower level and then he immediately explodes moving to Indiana and I think they liked that model. And so if Sturts plays really well, let's say if they win a game, you know, Ben McCollum gets the Indiana job. Maybe Sturts plays too well to follow him. I'll obviously be a great part of the package, you know, to bring a guy like Ben and Sterch with you to Indiana, but maybe he's off to the NBA. So probably the best case is if they win and he doesn't play well. I mean, that would be the best case scenario for them. Well, look, I live in Omaha. When Greg McDermott came over from northern Iowa

and brought his son, Doug McDermott, it changed the trajectory of Creighton basketball. They, you know, they were in the Big East all of a sudden, and now I got Mike Shoshiewski out there advocating for the Big East to merge. You know, they've been in the Big East title game like four or five years, and I got Mike Shoshavsky out there. advocating, you know, for, I can't tell you how much I want the ACC to merge, Jonathan, with the Big East. I would love ACC teams to be coming into Omaha. But anyway, keep an eye on Ben McCollum and keep an eye on Sturts. Now, he is, let me get your opinion on this. He is 21 years old. So if he consulted you, Jonathan, and said, should I go to high major X? Or even if it's,

even if Ben McCollum's days there. Or should I, go into this draft where people like Jonathan Gavoni have me in the 40s, maybe I can elevate, what would you tell him to do? I would enter the draft, go to the combine, and let's see how it translates, you know, like against high major athletes. You got two games there, and people really get to see you in the drills and all that, get to know you, watch, interview you. And then he can decide from the feedback that he gets, you know, like, am I the 29th pick, am I the 39th pick, am I the 49th pick, am I the 19th pick? And make her very informed, decision because if you're only going to get a two-way contract, no, then how you go to, go to

Indiana, take two million dollars. You're crazy. Two-way is worth $600,000. It's non-guaranteed. So that's, you know, the calculation that a lot of guys are going to be making this spring with the NIL dollars that are out there. You know, another guy that I assume is really high on KP's board is Yaxel Lenderberg from UAB. You know, he's in the 40s on our board. That's two-way contract territory. he's going to get $1.5 to $2 million at the bare minimum. Do you take that two-way for $600 or do you go take the $2 million? It's not an easy decision for a lot of these guys. Okay, before we go, we've gone over these guys, lots of insights.

I've learned a lot here today. Pelton, one guy that you think could be the March darling that nobody's talking about, but we could all know in two or three weeks. I mean, it's going to take a major upset because his team doesn't have the talent it had last year, Tyler Colac and Oso Iigado are both in the NBA. But Cam Jones and Marquette, to me, is just getting entirely slept on as an NBA prospect. And if they can knock off Michigan State to get to the Sweet 16 is the seventh seed. I think that would be huge for his stock.

Jonathan, do you have anybody? Danny Wolf, maybe the most unique player in college basketball, seven feet tall, plays point guard quite a bit for Michigan, big time pick and roll player. has a really interesting matchup with UC San Diego, one of the best mid majors in the country. If they win that, they would move on to play. Who do they have after that? Texas A&M.

Danny Wolf is the guy that I'll be following very closely. Thank you guys so much for your insight. I really appreciate it. I depend on you to make me not sound so stupid when it comes to college basketball. Thank you to Jackson, our producer. Thank you for watching and listening to The Who Collective. We'll talk to you later this week.