Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective - NBA Future Power Rankings Reaction

Episode Date: September 26, 2025

Brian Windhorst is joined by ESPN's Tim Bontemps and Tim MacMahon to react to our latest NBA Future Power Rankings analyzing which teams have the brightest futures ahead of them. The guys break down why the Clippers moved up so much despite all of the headlines, how the Luka trade shifted the fortunes in Dallas & LA, how injuries impacted Boston and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, sports fans, the ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place. The ESPN app is your home to thousands of live events, ESPN shows, and originals across every ESPN network and service. And now you can check if you already have ESPN Unlimited as part of your TV package for no additional calls. Visit activate.esPN.com to learn how to access your account or sign up, then start streaming in the ESPN app. It's all of ESPN all in one place. Sign up or activate now. Hello, welcome to the HOOC Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we are doing on Wednesday afternoon. Joining me from New York City before he's headed overseas for a weekend of fun with a three-month-old is Tim Bonteps.

Four and a half for the Cinderbach. Oh, four and a half. Well, he only looks like he's about 14 months old. Yes, that is true. Hello, everybody. Joining us from Los Angeles, California, LAPC. He's doing NBA today out there this week, is Band. McMahon. Howdy, partners. I like how this newborn baby's got a stronger passport game than I do. This is

impressive. He's putting my back in McMahon territory too at the rate things are going. I'm not kidding you. Like, I'm not so sure you should be carrying it as much as you do, especially on a overseas flight. But hey, you do you. That's the boss. All right. So one of my favorite offseason of stories came out this week, the future power rankings, which is a look at the next three years in the NBA. And seeing as we have one of the three panelists who put it together, let's have Tim Bontemps explain how he puts this, what he looks at to put this together. Yeah, Kevin Peltin, Bobby Marks and myself do this every year.

And the rough goal of it, as you said, is to try to take a three-year snapshot of the league and try to project out what roughly teams will look like over that span. And obviously, you can't necessarily know how things are going to go, for example, a year ago. None of us would have sat here and said, Luke Donch is just going to be a Laker, right? So the NBA is good. You didn't? I did not.

I would not have guessed that one or predicted it. So the NBA is good at throwing his curveballs. But like you said, I think the best way to think about it is, you know, generally going into that. We usually run it now around the start of the season. It's to try to assess where the league is at. across the board. And there's five different categories, um, players, which is obviously what talent you have on your roster, draft, which is again, pretty obviously draft assets, um, market, where you play, money, which is what your salary sheet looks like going forward, whether you're

going to have cap space or whether you're going to be deep into the second apron and management, which accounts for coaching staff, front office and ownership. And, you know, we rank all of them from zero to 100 and average them out and put our averages together and we get the list that we have. Okay. So by the way, last year you ranked the Thunder number one. Nice job. Really went out on a limb on that one.

Well, hey, listen. You know, there were a lot of people that did not pick the Thunder to win this year. Well, I guess just to back up for one second. being number one on this list does not necessarily mean you're going to win the title. And it is worth pointing out that, like, for example, in 2022, the number one team on this list was the Memphis Grizzlies, right? And they had Desmond Bain and John Morant and Darren Jaron Jackson Jr. And they had this young, exciting core. And it looked like they were on the way up.

And now they're 17th. And they won a total of one playoff series, right? like that that's sort of the way these things can go like you know the thunder are now first a couple years in a row it looks like they could be first for a long time but you know it's it's hard to know for sure where things are going to go from here that's why it's you know it's trying to look at the next three years and how teams are positioned but just because your position well doesn't mean you'll always have it end well right which is why when I got about 15 years in the league I ruled off making predictions because that's not that is not wise because the back last don't we're not letting you get off

the hook there that is right that is right why um all right so the biggest mover on this list you over year both up or down bond temps i think it has to be the headline where we start and i didn't want to talk about this team because we just talked about this team oh twist his arm the biggest mover on this list jumping up 20 spots or 15 spots from last year. Going from number 20 last year to number five this year. Please explain why you have the L.A. Clippers making the biggest move and fifth to fifth overall. Obviously they had a very good year last year better than expected.

But this one made me stop. Well, yeah. I mean, look, I mean, and I will say in full transparency, we did these vote, we voted on this a couple of weeks ago. However, I would also say that as of this moment, nothing has changed with the Clippers future. And if we're running the story now, we have to sort of operate under the set of facts we have, which is that nothing has happened to the Clippers yet. And obviously, the Clippers have traded away a bunch of their future draft picks as of now. and certainly their draft pick situation could get worse if there's some penalties that come from this situation. But they're a top five market, obviously, team in the league being in L.A., even if they're not the number one New York L.A. team.

There's certainly a place that people want to play now. In L.A. is a place where guys have always wanted to play. We had them rank second in management, which when you look at Steve Balmer and his willingness to spend money and has been a guy who has seemingly not gotten in the way of his front office, which with Lawrence Frank and Trent Redden and Mark Hughes and those guys, has done a very good job over the past several years. Now, again, I think their process has been good in terms of building out teams. Obviously, they have not had health luck with Kauai Leonard in particular,

and Paul George to a lesser extent before that. But the biggest thing is, I think if you look at what happened from this year to last year, last year they lose Paul George. We spent the summer going, man, they lose Paul George for nothing. Where is this team at? They're probably not going to be very good. Then they win 50 games last year. Their roster is better this year.

And they have a ton of flexibility going forward, including having basically a completely clean cap sheet in 2027 to go chase whoever they want in free agency. So they're a top five money team. Now, again, all this is with the caveat that we will see what happens with this investigation. but, you know, any aggregate, should they maybe be a little bit lower than fifth? Maybe. Like, I think you could, I think you could debate whether the Clippers or Lakers should be ahead of one of the other. The Lakers have the most important thing you could have, which is a top five player in Luca Dantzic, who is now under contract. I think a top five player entering his prime.

Correct. And I think you could reasonably argue the Clippers have the advantage just about everywhere else. So that's where it becomes an interesting discussion. But either way, I don't think anybody would have argued with them being a top five to 10 team in this ranking before the last couple of weeks. And obviously, if they wind up losing multiple draft picks and things go paywire going forward, that will change where they're at now. It doesn't change their next three years. Well, and that's the thing. They don't control their draft really the next three years anyway. Right.

This is a three year snapshot, which is. This is the near future power range. Right. Not the long term. Because honestly, the long term future for the Clippers is murky. I get they're going to have a lot of flexibility in 2027. But Wendy, how do you feel about free agency being, you know, the primary? And I would even say almost the sole way to build a contender in the modern NBA.

Because they're out 26 to 29. draft first round capital either swaps or outright. We'll see about, you know, third and beyond pending NBA investigation. So how do you feel about free agency as the path to build on a contender? Well, without getting too far afield here, who are the free agents of the last 20 years that materially changed the balance of power in the NBA, like changed who the championship? Yeah, we did this. LeBron a few times and, you know, in KD. Kevin Duran. You know, they They took their swing on Kauai, which obviously has not worked out to the levels that they hoped. And so many other these teams that have opened cap space to chase free agents.

Well, there's more ways to spend cap space than just free agency. I would just say this. I like the Clippers at number five talking about the 2025-26 season. Yeah. because I think all of this stuff around the Kauai recruitment and whatever has clouded the fact that the clippers like the hand that they're holding with the team that they've got right now. Now, when you're comparing, then you've got to say, well, they've beaten the thunder. Well, no, no one's picking them to beat the thunder. But that's why you play the games.

I'll just point out, and McMahon just heard me say this on the call that we just had praying for NBA today. So he's going to have heard this exact thing. finished the season 17 and 4. Okay. They were ahead two to one in the series against the Nuggets, and they were ahead in the final minute of game four. I mean, they were heading the final point two seconds of game four. Okay, right.

So beyond that, you know, beyond that play, like they had the opportunity to win the game to go up three, one. Yeah. And obviously the Thunder won the series with the Nuggets in seven. Kauai, we went over in the last podcast, we went over his stats after the All-Star Break. last year. I have no idea whether he's going to be healthy. McMahon brought up in the

meeting, and I'll, so you don't have to say it. Kauai's played 42% of their games. 42% of the time you're going to have a first team, all-N-B-A player. What does that get you? I agree. If he plays 42% of their games this year, we ain't talk about anything. Yeah. But, you know, I, you know, this ranking,

I actually don't, I brought it up because it's the biggest jump and it causes like the biggest eyebrow raise. I actually, I don't think you're necessarily wrong. other than the fact that in three years, I don't know if anybody on this team will still be on. Well, I mean, yeah. I mean, it should be noted and it's worth pointing out that like it's not, it isn't like we sit there and go, hey,

let's like start ranking these teams from 1 to 30 and see where it lands, right? It is an average of these things. And it's like, it's literally an average. And it's just wherever the average comes out is what the ranking is. So yeah, like I said, I think you could easily argue the Clippers. should be 10th instead of fifth, I think, if you want. But the main thing is why did they jump so much? Because a year ago, it was like, where is this team going without Paul George and like,

what situation are they in? And then they had a great season. They added to their roster. They have flexibility going forward. And up until the last couple of weeks, they were seen as having excellent coaching, front office, ownership, stability, and performance. and they're in LA and they have money to spend. And the only thing I'll point out about free agency,

because it is something that's come up a lot, is the last few years, the league has obviously seen very little to no free agency happen at all because of we had three years in a row due to COVID, where the cap went up a total of 3% across three years. Now that the cap is going up somewhere between probably 5% and 10% a year going forward, it will be interesting to see how much free agency becomes a factor again and whether it's actually dead.

Cap space is going to be coming back. Right. There has been no cap space for anybody to use at all. Now there's going to be cap space for teams to use. Or the only teams that have had cap space have been like the Nets this year, who were not interested in trying to improve their roster and win games. Or there's been like one or two teams with space. So we will see what happens.

A couple of things. One, 42% of games played 33% of postseason's finished healthy for Kauai since he's been with the Clippers. two out of six, including last year, which means that they missed a precious opportunity when they got eliminated by the Nuggets and Seven. Also, I think we should mention Jalen Brunson. I don't know if he shifted the power of the league, but certainly that free agency resuscitated the next franchise. But for sure, I think free agency at this point is best utilized to find a finishing piece and not a foundation piece. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Isaiah Hartnstein, you know,

along with their trade for Cruz. Hartnstein was a finishing piece for them, but they had the luxury of having their core in place, including a guy who was going to win the MVP last year in place, and they were able to add to that, whereas the clippers are going to have all this cap flexibility because all their foundation pieces are going to be free agents themselves. More Hoop Collective Podcast after this.

All right. So the Lakers were the second biggest mover. They went up 13 spots to number eight. That's a Luca. Yeah, sure. Adding Luca Donchich will cause your future to look a lot better. I will say this. And losing them will make it look worse.

I will say this. Because I don't know what's going to happen with Austin Reeves, and it's not a judgment of Austin Reeves. It's more about how Austin Reeves fits with Luca. And because we talked about earlier this week, their whole team basically is free agents after this year. I'm not sure that any of the current Lakers, other than Luca, will be there three years from now.

And so really the number eight thing is just a vote upon, you know, Luca ascending to where he, you know, should ascend, you know, his destiny. And let's just be honest, the Lakers have every advantage in the world in terms of... They don't have every advantage. Well, because it's not hard to convince guys, hey, do you want to play in L.A. for the league's most glamorous franchise? I will say this. The Lakers have the...

The Lakers have the most built-in advantages of any team in the league by a significant amount. It doesn't mean they have infinite, but they have the most. Ownership is not one of the things you consider. I don't know if it's folded into management. I said earlier. It is folded into management. Well, all right. Sorry.

Oh, it's all good. I don't know what kind of owners that Mark Walter and his group will be. I have a high standard that I think that they could meet. I'm not sure how Jeannie Buss potentially. remaining as governor will affect that. But if you're looking at the Lakers and saying that they have advantages, they haven't always had, like you've got the Lakers ranked 17th in management.

Not you, but the group has the 17th in management. It's possible that could rise. I'm surprised. I thought bond temps would be higher on Polinka, just because they both share a love for vocabulary words. Polinka shares a love for, you know,

telling parables. There's a vocabulary word. Yeah. Okay. Another big mover as we look at the risers here, Bontems, the Atlanta Hawks

rising from 23rd a year ago to 12th. You seem to you, I keep saying you. It's not you. It's spelled them Bobby as well. I mean, you could say me.

It's okay. I don't like. The royal are you. I could take the, I could take the attack. for those guys. So the thing about it is, is the, the hawks have been mired in play-in land.

They had that incredible run four years ago to get to the conference finals that were, it was aided by injury. But look, Trey Young took it. And, and they have these, these group of young players.

They made the big offseason additions, Porzingis, Nikiel Alexander Walker. The Pelicans pick next year. The Pelicans pick next year. So that, that, that, I don't know how much that played into that.

being up here at number 12 in a higher ranking bond times. Yeah, I mean, to foreshadow something that we generally talk about every summer that's coming next week, the offseason survey, the Hawks came up a lot in that also. And yeah, look, I mean, again, Atlanta is a lot like, again, there's a reason why they jumped up a lot. It's a lot like the Clippers and it's a lot like the Lakers and that if you look a year ago at where Atlanta was at, they had just made the Dejante Murray trade, but we had not seen anything yet from Dyson Daniels. He was just an intriguing player that they got in the deal that

we did know much about. He went on to win most improved player. They go out this summer and they get Nicky Alexander Walker from Minnesota. They get Chris Asperzingus from the Celtics. They have a solid season last year where their young players take steps forward. They have all their guys pretty much on good deals at this point going forward. We'll see what happens with Tray Young. They obviously make the draft pick trade with the Pelicans and give themselves arguably the best draft asset in right now, that unprotected swap with either the Pelicans or the bucks the next year's draft. And they've got a good coach in Quinn Snyder, Ansi Sala, running their front office. It's done an excellent job over the past several months.

Like Atlanta's in a very strong position and in a much different position than they were a year ago. And, you know, the funny thing is we've been doing this thing for a long time. and they've never been in the top 10 and never been higher than the hour this year. So, you know, we'll see what happens a year from now. Maybe they end up with Darren Peterson or AJ DeBanza or maybe the Pelicans stun everybody and are good. And their young players take a step back and we'll see. But again, this is like several of these other teams where you look at where they were last fall and you look at where they are now. And it's a pretty good day to be a hawk.

And the Hawks have done two major things in terms of the value of their future draft over the next few years. And that is decrease the value of the picks, of the swap and a pick that they still owe San Antonio for the Dejante Murray deal, and then get a massive boost in draft value for just the absolute highway robbery of a trade that they made on draft night with the New Orleans Pelicans. And I think the two best moves and two phenomenal moves that the Hawks have made over the last couple of years have both been with the Pelicans and with two different Pelicans front offices. But obviously, to get Dyson Daniels and a 27, was it a 27 pick for Dejante Murray was a great deal for them in terms of financial flexibility, in terms of the draft value, and in terms of a guy who steps right. in as an all-defensive team player and as a long-term starter for them. Yeah, it's the best of the the Pelicans or Bucks pick in 27. And then to move down 10 spots and get an unprotected pick from the Pelicans is honestly, Bontemps, you like to use the word malpractice. That is malpractice

by the Pelicans front office. And the Hawks pounced on it. Speaking of New Orleans and Bontemps. Bontemps wrote up the assessment of the Pelicans, who are one of the lowest, switching to the teams that dropped the most. The Pelicans dropped 13 spots year over year. They were middle of the pack, and now they ranked 29th

in these rankings. And Bontemps has this stat in here, which is a little bit depressing for Pelicans fans. These rankings have been done for 16 years with various committees, because not even I've been at ESPN for 16 years. I'm just celebrating my 16

year anniversary. Congratulations. My 16th anniversary is September, October 1st. 15th year anniversary of October 1st. Yeah. You're a senior writer, but I'm older and more experience. Go on. Yeah.

Well, I think everybody would agree with that. Facts. Yeah. So anyway, this is the lowest spot, the Pelican. Well, it's hard to get much lower than 29th. But the point is, what you're saying here, Bontemps, is this outlook for the Pelicans is the bleak. is the bleakest by the assessment of this since.

Yeah, I mean, look, this is also not very complicated, right? New Orleans is probably not going to be good this year. Yes, they have Jeremiah Fears. Yes, they have Derrick Queen. Maybe those guys will become All-Stars. Like, they are talented players. They could blow up in the future, right? Zion Williamson is obviously a huge enigma still.

He could be a guy who plays 65-70 games and makes the All-Star team again. He could, once again, be a guy that misses a lot of time. I think I know what side I would bet, you know, we'll see. No, you're very, um, I think I did. But, but the other thing is like this team, as we've talked about the lot, the West is an absolute bear, right? And if you're trying to paint the rosy picture for the Pelicans,

the best argument you can make is Ian Williamson plays 70 plus games. And this team is pushing for a playing spot. That's probably the best realistic argument you can make. So typically that would be. mean the Pelicans are going to have a top 10 pick in what's a really strong draft. That would be something that would really boost the future outlook of a team like this. Instead, they don't have that pick, and Atlanta has it. And so even if they are bad this year, it's hard to look at it and say,

man, these guys could add Darren Peterson or AJ to Bansa to Zion Williamson and these other guys and maybe they take off. Like, that option isn't available to them. So, you know, we'll see where it lands. again, we talked about teams going up and down this list year to year. Things do change a lot, especially as McMan said, the league has gotten shorter and shorter with time horizons over time. But if you're objectively looking at where the Pelicans are at, it is a pretty bleak place

to be in the short term. And as you said, McMahon, this is really a short term future outlook and future outlook, short term future outlook's pretty bleak. How much do you like the chances of the Hawks to not be in the play in this year? I think the Hawks have a better chance to be a top four team in the East than to be a playing team. Okay. The Hawks have some injury concern across the board, right? Jalen Johnson has missed a lot of time with injuries.

Chris Sassborzingis has missed a lot of time with injuries. You know, they've had guys in the out of the line up. But yeah, their ceiling is they could be top two or three in the East, I think, if things break right for them. I'm just saying, like, universally panned this Derrick Queen trade. what happens if Derek Queen is like what happens if Derek Queen is second team all rookie and the swap ends up it's not a swap well given given Derek Queen already has a busted uh wrist I believe okay well that's surgery out this summer well I I know but he's going to miss the beginning of the season I would say I'm wrong but this is just a straight up pick it's not a swap I thought it was a swap it's an unprotected

it's an unprotected swap no it is a swap my bad So let me just, let me just ask this, just as a devil's advocate, not that I'm... Sure. Sure. Let's say that the, that the, that the, at the Hawks finish six, six-ish in the east. And it's like, and the Pelicans maybe miss out on the play in, and the pick, you, like, it's like, the swap is like from... The Pelicans, this is not a swap. Atlanta will receive the more favorable of Milwaukee.

and New Orleans 2026 first round pick and Milwaukee will receive the less favorable. This is not, the Milwaukee pick is involved in a swap, but the Pelicans aren't not. Oh, that's, yes. Yeah, this is not a swap. Yes. Atlanta's not giving up a swap. Atlanta's just getting a pick, the better one of New Orleans or Milwaukee. That's right.

Yeah, I was saying it back. Listen, this trade's terrible for New Orleans. Yes. Unless Derek Queen becomes an all-star type of player, this is. It's not even about Derek Queen. It's about the process. It is about the, it's not. It's not.

It's about the, no, it's not. Because again, if, how did they get their queen? If they becomes an all star, then. Brian, if the Hawks, if they had said to the Hawks, we'll do this top four protected. For example, you know what the Hawks would have done? Yeah, we'll do that deal. Obviously, they would have done it. Because it's worth, especially keeping themselves in the draft like they did last year.

That's why it was such a bad trade. Look, the whole league agrees with you. From the moment the trade became known, the whole league slapped their head. I'm not taking the opposite side of that. I'm just saying, let's just wait a little bit. But the other thing is, when you are New Orleans, free agency is just not a possibility. It will never be a free agency destination. That's why it ranks near the bottom bond temps in market.

There's just certain markets where, you know, unless you become a blossoming, juggernaut like the Oklahoma City Thunder did and you can get Hardinstein. It has to be a very unique situation for that sort of a market to get a free agency. You can't build your roster via free agency. The draft is more important to a market like New Orleans than the vast majority of teams in the league and they're blowing their draft. Just taking the devil's advocate position, they could say that's why we moved up 10 spots to get this guy in the draft that we thought would be great. The devil's advocate position doesn't change the fact that the the process of the trade and the value proposition of the trade is terrible, regardless of how good

Derek Queen becomes. Well, that I don't disagree with. I don't disagree with that. Derrick Queen may become good. He may become great, but that doesn't change the value proposition of the trade. And that fact is why despite Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver only having been there six months or less, you've got the management ranked 29th. Well, they also have an ownership group that's never paid the tax ever under Gail Benson.

and before. And Willie Green is in, I'd say, an underfire coach. So those are accurate statements. You know. Those are accurate statements. And look, Troy Weaver, as we've talked about, did not exactly have a great tenure in Detroit. And Joe DuMars- That are fueling their turnaround.

He's had some good draft picks. He also did some other stuff that was not as good, which is why he's not still there with those draft picks. And Joe Dumars is a long ways from when he was building one of the great. runs we've seen in this century back in the 2000s with Detroit. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. All right. Headed back to McMahonway. One of the biggest fallers in this, in this, in addition to the Pelicans,

the Dallas Mavericks falling from fifth to 16th going down 11 spots. Now, obviously this is related year over year to Luca decision. Well, and that's just. flag floats nothing. I mean, what would it have been if they didn't hit the lottery? Well, yeah, it would have been a lot lower. Into a generational talent. Yeah, I mean, it would have been a lot lower. I mean, you have, it's not just Luca leaving. It's also Kyrie Irving being on a tour in ACL and like, yes, maybe he'll play at some point this season. But this is an old roster that I don't think, I mean,

I mean, hell, Nico Harrison is repeatedly said. This is a three to four year time horizon. and that's from the GM talking about it, right? So, yeah, Cooper, I would say probably boosted it a few spots by himself, but there's a lot of questions about the medium-term future of the MAVs, especially when you're built around a guy, one guy with a torn ACL and another guy in Anthony Davis, who is very, very good, but also is consistently banged up. And coming off of eye surgery, retina surgery.

And look, the three to four, four-year window would be through this. And that was Nico's, you know, day after explanation of why they traded a five-time first team all-NBA selection who was just entering his prime to create, and by the way, months removed from a finals appearance. Right. To create a three to four-year championship window. And look, Nico has proof that it is a championship caliber team.

Did you see those two and a half quarters against the Houston Rockets? But man, that's a tough one. I mean, honestly, I'm a little bit surprised that management is sitting there at 20 just because, I mean, it's the most controversial and pan trade in NBA history. And it completely exposed the flaws in terms of there were no checks and balances for Nico in the organization. I do think Dumont will be a bit more cautious moving forward. But you have an owner who now has a year and a half under his belt and is very, very, much learning the NBA on the fly. That's that's a predicament. And then, you know, it's a fascinating deal because they just got, is Cooper flagged the most hype American prospect since the

Braun? I mean, he's in the, he's in the short list for sure. But building around him will be challenging because of all the draft picks you gave up to successfully build around Luca. So There's a lot going on with the Mavericks. Yeah, you were, you were sounding the alarm that they were robbing Peter to pay Paul even before that trade. Well, before the trade, it was just, that's why to me, I just couldn't. And I asked Nico straight up, and he just gave me the defense wins championship's explanation, which is like, okay, but I'm asking about, like, the logic of you gave up all these draft picks. And again, just to spell it out, 27 to Charlotte for PJ Washington,

top two protected. 28 is a pick swapo to Oklahoma City. I think you can end up at the bottom of the first round there. That was to get a pick for the Gaffer deal. 29 is... In the Kyrie deal. In the Kyrie deal, it's now the Rockets property. They do have the Lakers 29 pick.

And then 30 is a swap to San Antonio to salary dump Reggie Bullock to get Grant Williams in a sign and trade. So again, you know, it's four years very early in Cooper Flagg's career of not having control of your first round pick, which is, that's a very narrow path in terms of trying to build a championship caliber team as the future Hall of Famers that you have in place now are going to be in their late 30s, you know, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Clay Thompson. And again, you look at like San Antonio. Typically, you get this kind of talent and you get Victor. And then you get another chomp at the apple and Stefan Castle, Rookie of the Year. And then they kind of lucked in to getting another chomp at a big apple in Dylan Harper, where it's going to be Cooper Flagg next year's tick.

It's interesting San Antonio, because San Antonio, and I'm not, we don't have the time to talk about them, really. But they were number 10 last year at the start of the season, based largely on Victor's upside. They get the rookie of the year in a non-impressive class, and then they get lucky and get a top three pick. And they're still 10. You sort of got them spinning their wheels. I would be stunned if the Mavericks spin their wheels.

I predict, oh, God, I just said that word. Oh, yes. I suspect that we're either going to watch Cooper Flag for this next six months and go, holy Moses, he's the real deal. and regardless of what else is on the roster, regardless of the pick position, that next year they're going to be a top 10 team, or if Cooper Flagg looks like he's good but not great,

they're going to be headed the other direction. I would disagree with that for two reasons. One, the draft assets are a problem for them going forward. And two, I think even if that, I think Cooper's going to be awesome. But you still have the inherent problem that they have an old roster. that isn't going the right direction on the age curve.

And so Cooper could, like, let's say to your point, I think Cooper's going to win rookie the year. I think Cooper's going to be awesome. He's going to be a guy that I would assume, like Victor, like Luca, like these other guys, will be in contention to be an all-star as a second year in the league. But let's see how Kyrieh comes back from his torn ACL. Let's see where Anthony Davis is in a year.

Let's see if Derek lively can stay healthy. Let's see where Clay Thompson is at in a year. Like this is a team with a lot of questions around them. And they could easily be around the same spot they are next year just because, again, Cooper Flag is awesome. But there's a lot of questions around them. I think your Victor point is well taken where Victor has more upside than anybody in the league. They have a lot of draft assets.

They have some level of young talent. And they're still only 10th because of the other flaws that are around. Yeah, I don't disagree with that ranking either. Like I almost think it's, you know, you know how I feel about the Spurs. I love their future. I'm not so sold on their immediate future. So, you know, Lively is going to be a huge key for the Mavericks because he is a young guy. He was, you know, a lottery pick.

And I think you can argue he's a high lottery. He's proved to be a high lottery type of talent. But he's played 91 games in two years. The durability is certainly a concern. And he's no longer playing with. the point guard who maximizes his talent. You know, the trade for Luca took away a lot of what lively does best, or at least, you know, doesn't maximize what lively does best.

And that's obviously pick and roll lob threat. We have talked about this some in the past, but I do think Cooper Flag is going to play a lot of point guard. And if you talk to people in the league, there are a lot of people who would argue his best skill is passing. And I am curious to see. if it I'm not saying he's going to walk in to be Luca Dantre. She's obviously not. He's one of the best pick and roll operators ever. But I do think he's a guy that could walk in right away,

especially on kind of a funky roster where he has the ball in his hands a lot and surprise people with his playmaking. And perhaps there is more of Derek lively is a lot threat. And Daniel Gafford has a lot threat without Luca than we might have guessed based off of the fact that Luca's not there. I would be cautious though on counting on a kid who's going to to be 18 when his NBA career starts to drive winning, right? Oh, I didn't say drive and winning, to be clear. I know. I think that could be a challenge.

I just think he might be a much better passer than people who haven't seen a play a lot, I think. I'm just saying, Luke, as great as he was as a rookie, was, they weren't good. Got 98 of 100 votes for rookie year. One of the guys who went against him was boomer sooner for Trey Young, totally in the bag. LeBron, you know, I mean, as great as he was. And I'm talking about like... LeBron playing point guard in 2003, four was a mess.

I'm talking about the two best probably teenagers that we've seen in the NBA. By the way, there was some comparison to that because LeBron wasn't like LeBron came out of high school. Like obviously he had the ball in his hand a lot, but it wasn't like he had a ton of reps at point guard. Yeah, right. He was just a great player. And the Cavs had no... The Cavs point guard position was a mess. I'm not going to go into that.

But they turned to him because... they needed somebody to play point guard who had some skill and they just didn't have it. They were playing Darius Miles who was a four as their point guard to start the season. And Cooper might be a four. And honestly, like that, this is why when we talked about the Mavs a couple weeks ago on the Southwest Division preview pod, I would take the under on 44 wins. I think it's going to be a struggle for them this season in some respects. But I think it could also be the best thing for them and Cooper Flag long term. If you say, hey, young fella, we don't really have a better option.

We're going to give you the ball. And yeah, you're going to make mistakes and turn the ball over some. But like you have DeAngel Russell. The Cavs, I say this. When the Brown was a rookie, the Cavs didn't have it. I mean, all respect to Kevin Ali. Yeah, I mean, DeAnda Russell's fine. But to me, the long term, the best long term thing for Cooper Flag and the Mavericks is to say,

hey man, explore the studio space, play point guard, make mistakes, have the ball in your hands, make plays, breed defenses, figure stuff out. Because, yeah, maybe Kyrie Irving will be back in March and this team will be a championship contending team. I think it's more likely their best chance to do that is next year when Kyrie in theory is fully healthy and they have everybody under, you know, having played a year together and Cooper's in his second year, et cetera. and you might as well expedite his development as much as possible and see if you can get there faster. And by the way, Kyrie's not a pure point either. There would be some funny irony. Right. He's closer.

He's closer. But if Cooper Flagg starts his career as a point guard, when Luca Donch did not. Luke started his career as a small board. Which is why that Kyrie was the perfect player to play alongside LeBron. and and Luca yes I mean it's just like anyway

you're here nor there the one last team I want to talk about if you should come check out the future power rankings to see or your team ranks if we didn't mention them there's some other big movers philly for example moved from four to 19 we'll talk about that more later bont tennis was the Boston Celtics

you had them number two last year which is totally reasonable we knew that they were headed for some money crunch the money crunch bit and the Jason Tatum injury happened all the way down to 13. My question is a year from now, where do you think the Celtics are going to be? Because it's very hard to know because they weren't, as they exited out of the money, they're, you know, the sort of the material piece that they got was Anthony Simons. And, you know, like if you look at who went out and who came back, Simons is the guy.

you're like, okay, that's the talent piece. And very clearly, he's not even really, he's not even really the talent piece. He's the, he's the temporary money piece. Well, of the pieces of what came back, that's the talent that came back. Right. Okay. So, and you could clear their, you know, look, he may have a great year this year and they may change their mind, but he's on the last year of his contract and they've already put

him on the trade market to a certain extent. The goal is to get out of the luxury tax. That's clearly the goal, which is what they should be trying to do. But my point is they didn't trade for pieces that two years from now will rise back up. No. I don't even know if Simon's when the team come to trade deadline, much less a year from now. Yeah, if he is, they're probably going to be disappointed because they, it's likely then they won't have accomplished their goal of getting out of the tax and avoiding the repeater tax, which again, based off where they're at is what they should be trying to do. Right. And I will say this. It's not

in the current era in the aprons, having a reset year to get out of the repeater is not necessarily a bad idea, not that they would have planned it. So the question is, how much can the Celtics realistically rebound with the hand that they're holding right now. Bond times you have them at 13th. This is what you're essentially saying. You're not 100% sure how they're going to rebound. That's what this 13th, because this is not about this season. This is about the next three.

I would say they're 13th in large part because one of the five or six best players in the league is not going to play this year with a torn Achilles, right? Like that if Jason Tatum was healthy, and again, this is where it's hard to really look at the Celtics of the last six months and really have a complete assessment of where they're at because they could have easily still gone on to win that series against the Knicks. I'm not saying they would have for sure, but they could have. And if they had won the final three games, what's that? You're going to get trashed at you in the streets in New York. Well, listen, if the Nicks would, the Celtics would have been favored to win each of those three games. And if they'd won that series,

they would have been favored to win that series against Indiana and make the finals. Not saying they would have done it. They might have easily lost game five. But the Celtics going into the playoffs were the clear favorites to get out of the east. They were co-favorants probably to win the title. And I don't know if they make the moves that they make this summer. If they had won the title or if they had got to the finals. But obviously they didn't. Obviously, Jason Tatum is hurt. And as you said, they took the opportunity. They probably would have taken steps to reduce their payroll, but they wouldn't have tried to get out of the tax. No, their team would look much different and be more talented and more expensive.

Well, and the Tatum injury made difficult decisions a lot easier because it's naturally going to be a gap year. That's right. So this gets back to your question of where will they be in a year, right? Let's assume Jason Tatum is fully healthy coming back. He's probably going to need some time to ramp back up to being fully Jason Tatum. But I don't think there's a lot of reason. Look at Kevin Durant, right? There's no reason to think Jason Tatum will not become a top five, six player in the league again. He's young. He's obviously tremendous worker. He's already out of the walk and boot moving around. So let's bank on that. So you've got him, Jalen Brown, and Derek White next year. That's an awfully good foundation moving forward. I think what will be interesting

to see over the next 12 months is now that they've gotten down near the tax, are there some moves the Celtics can make to add talent around those guys on the margins to deepen their roster out? Some of that is can the Luke Garza and Josh Minutes and some of these guys that they picked up off the scrap heap this summer show that they are guys who can be contributors moving forward, can say a Jordan Walsh, a guy who has shown some flashes, but as a young guy who didn't get much of a chance to play the last couple years outside the G League, can he become a guy that's a good 3-and-D wing, maybe, right? Some of it's that kind of stuff.

And then some of it is, you know, can they, do they have a really rough season? Do they maybe miss the playoffs and get lucky in the lottery, a la what happened with Dallas? Like, they're one Jalen Brown or even Derek White injury away, I would say. from being in pretty rough shape, roster-wise, even in the East. And Fortune favors the bold, so, you know, 1.8% could always cash out. I mean, it's true. But, like, it's, you know, I mean, nobody would have sat there in April and when the Mavericks lost in the 8-9 game and said,

oh, man, Dallas is headed for jumping up to number one other than Nico Harrison in the plan everybody didn't see. So, you know, like, if they get lucky and jump into the top four and get Darren Peterson or AJ to Bancor or an A to Men or one, of these dudes to go with their guys. Well, yeah, then obviously things will look a lot different. So to your point, though, this ranking will probably be largely determined on what the roster looks like on March 1st and where they sit in the standings on March 1st or even

February 15th after the trade deadline and what they can get back in deals and what they do to move things around. I will say it's going to be tough not to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference for the Celtics. Well, just being real. The Celtics don't have a lot of depth, especially up front right now. And again, like if Jalen Brown and Derek White are healthy, yeah, I think they're going to be pretty good. But if they're not. Jalen Brown should be a guy.

And I know that he had offseason knee surgery, but he should be a guy that you try to get in your fantasy leagues. I love him when he gives his fantasy. He loves to get to fantasy advice. Because, like, you know, somebody's got to score. And he wants to make, you know, he's. the guy who he's got to have a mission and this year he can't have the mission he's had the last three or four years which is to win the whole thing so he's going to be the lead to league in scoring uh all right thank you to bontemps thank you to mcman thank you to jackson and rafa

for producing thank you for listening and watching the hoop collective we'll talk to you next week adios amigos