Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective - NBA Western Conference Win Total REACTION - Most Shocking Over/Unders For 2026-27

Episode Date: August 14, 2026

Brian Windhorst is joined by ESPN's Tim MacMahon to break down the win totals for every team in the Western Conference including which lines are way too high, who is being overlooked and what team is most interesting to them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, welcome to the HOOC collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we are doing. Hello from Scotland, West, Scotland, UK, where I'm at for this podcast. Joining me back in Dallas after his trip to the South Pacific is Ban McMahon. Howdy, partner, I'm back in a place where you know what day it is, Wendy. Yeah, so let me just say this. Recently, we were recording a podcast. And McMahon went to a family wedding in, I thought it was called Samoa, but it's pronounced it.

I mean, I'm not in, probably getting it right. They pronounce it Samoa, Samoa. Samoa. More of like an emphasis on the first syllable. Right. So I was, I've been in Europe and we were scheduling the podcast. And I googled what time is, if it's 9 p.m. in Paris on a Sunday, what time is it in Sammo? And what time, what time is it in New York?

And it said in Samoa, it's 9 a.m. on Monday. And in New York, it's 4 p.m. or whatever it was, 3 p.m. So I said, and I said, hey, Jackson, how do we feel about 3 p.m. in New York, 9 p.m. in Paris, and 8 a.m. Monday in Samoa. Everybody gives a thumbs up. We're all good. We're all good. Okay, so here we get. It's 9 o'clock in Paris. It's 3 o'clock. No McMahon.

Where is McMahon? Where is McMahon? We're texting. We're texting. We're texting. We're calling nothing. All right. Well, I guess there's no McMahon for this podcast.

Like an hour two later, he's like, what are you guys talking about? It's Sunday morning. And I'm like, no, McMan. It's not Sunday. There's an American Samoa and a Western Samoa. And there's the international. How far apart are they? Actually, my in-laws are in Western Samoa now.

We had to come home. because the boys had school starting. But it's a 35-minute flight apart. But the international dateline is in between. So I was still on our side of the dateline. And you thought I was on the other side of the dateline. But we got it all figured out. I mean, I literally had the wrong day.

I woke up the morning after the family wedding that we went to. I was in no shape to podcast. And I was like, oh, what's going on? What day is it? You were getting up the day after the wedding. Exactly. You and Slater handled things just fine. Oh my God. He was like, what are you guys talking about it's Sunday? I go, how could we have the day wrong? But, okay, it's one thing to go 30 minutes away and it'd be a different time in terms of like an hour, but a different day?

Listen, I was, I was confused and I'm still confused because to get home, we got on 11, 20 p.m. flight from American Samoa. They have three flights to Honolulu a week, three flights in, three flights out. It's 11.20 p.m. out. That's a five and a half hour flight to get on our 8 o'clock flight from Honolulu to make a connection in LAX to get home. We got home about midnight. The boys made it to school this morning somehow miraculously. I slept for a while. Yeah, well, you land before you take off. Okay. Now, moving past it is nobody's fault, especially not mine. I never heard. But I had the wrong day that I didn't understand you were in American Samoa. versus Samoa. All right. Now comes the time,

now comes the time where we, our friends at Draft Kings have posted the win totals. The majority of the offseason, well, we think, we don't know. Crazy things happen. The Lakers get sold twice in a year, for example.

But for the most part, the rosters have largely been set. I'm not sure if Peyton Watson or Jonathan Comingo Switch teams is going to do that much. So we are taking a look at what the over-unders are, and we're going to start with the Western Conference. Let's start with the Clippers. Oh, yeah, well, let's not start there because the one team that doesn't have the win total posted is the Clippers because, you know, there's an investigation. They do have one for the Raptors. I know.

Yeah. And I guess they figured, well, the Raptors would have Brandon Ingram if they don't have coal. so there's at least a kind of a baseline. But obviously, will Kauai be playing? If so, is it in Toronto? Like, there's just no way to forecast the clippers right now. Well, since you left that, let's say the trade does go through. All right.

So Vegas doesn't have a, let's say the trade does go through. And Brandon Ingram ends up as a clipper. And look, maybe the clippers go out, you know, we don't know what's happened with Benedict Matherin. Maybe they go out and try to acquire another piece. but let's just say for the most part that the trade goes through where would you put the clippers with you know trading out getting Grady Dick and Brandon Ingram for Kauai Leonard?

I mean not as a playoff team which according to this tied for eighth or the Warriors and Sons at 40 and a half wins. I don't think the clippers are a top eight team you know somewhere they're a losing team with this trade yeah somewhere somewhere in the 30-ish win range and the clippers are going through or trying to get to a pretty major franchise reset that is obviously not about winning right now, but about

moving past a pretty tough chapter, as it all turned out in franchise history, just because the expectations were so high and then the payoff was not much. But yeah, somewhere in the 30s. Maybe a playing team, probably not. Well, here's one thing that I think we're going to have to pay attention to when it comes to these win totals is that a bunch of these teams that were tanking last year are no longer tanking. And so like a team who last year could be just as good as they were last year or possibly even better and have fewer wins because you're going to have fewer of these gimmies on the schedule. You know, the Grizzlies and the Jazz and the Kings, you know, in terms of the Western teams, they are all trying to win. And Portland, not that they were tanking last year, but Portland is, you know, Tom Dundon wants to win. So keep that in mind.

Yeah, Dundon wants to make the playoffs. He just doesn't want to give away T-shirts once they get there. Correct. But, I mean, like, you know, Portland was a playing team last year and made the playoffs. and, you know, I think that they intend to be better this year or they're trying to make moves to be better. So, all right, let's start at the top, McMahon. The Oklahoma City Thunder, 2025 NBA champs,

losers in seven games to the San Antonio Spurs with injuries to their front line. They had some losses this offseason, Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe. They bring in some draft picks. Draft Kings loves them. They have the highest win total by a game over the spurs. We'll talk about in a second.

They are at 60.5 with the wins. Are you an over or under on 60.5? I mean, I'm an over, and I do think that they are a significantly thinner team. They don't have the depth that they had last year just because they did lose three quality role players, one of whom was a starter. But, you know, they were a 68 win team a couple of years ago. They were a 64 win team last year. I guess you could say if that trend holds up, they're a 60 win team this year. But really, to me, this comes down so much to can Jay Williams, J. Dub, stay healthy.

They won 64 games last year, and he played like 30. What was it? I think 33, if I'm not. Yeah, how many of those things were even close to 100%. Yeah, and so, you know, I know he's working awfully hard on his body this summer to do everything within his power to position himself to be durable this year. You know, because the other thing, the other question mark with them is just the depth at the power forward position. Chet homeowners are starting power forward. And then it's like, I don't know who like, they'll play a lot of four guard stuff.

like Caruso can play a power forward. He's not power forward size. J. Deb can play power forward. He's closer to power forward size. Crusoe guards Victor Wimbunyama for chunks of class. Yeah, I mean, yeah. You know, so they've got versatility in terms of like their wing players. But look, they're still an extraordinarily deep team.

They still have unbelievable high-end talent. You know, Shagioz-Ox-X-Ox-X-Inders, I don't think he'll repeat his MVP again, but he's a two-time reigning MVP. You know, people are down on Chet because he had a really rough conference finals. But trust me, if Chet Hohman was put on the trade block, there would be a massive... Chet Hohmendman was an all-MBA player last year. Holmgren was a whole NBA player last year. Jalen Wood was an all-M-Bay player the year before.

They've got three all-M-Ba caliber players and a bunch of emerging young talent. You know, we haven't mentioned AJ Mitchell, who was also, you know, his intrigue player to playoffs was a killer. he's emerging. Kays and Wallace is emerging. They've just got so much talent, obviously an elite coach. You know, I think their culture changed a bit with the loss of the guys that went out the door,

but they still have elite culture. And, you know, I don't know if they're the best team. Look, I can boil this down. AJ Mitchell's role is going to be bigger. How do you feel about that? Great. He's held the player. Kaysen Wallace's role is going to be bigger.

How do you feel about that? Great. I think it'd be in their best interest to get him signed to an extension because if not, he'll be really expensive. Jared McCain's role is going to be bigger. How do you feel about that? Good. Yeah, I mean, I'm not bad, you know, maybe not as excited about Kays and Wallace's role growing,

but, you know, I'd feel okay about it. And look, like, they had these guys who were mostly out last year, you know, Tomas Sorber. And, you know, then they drafted these guys. Adai Mara and Bennett Sturtz, like, I don't know, maybe they have a role. So I also feel good about that being over, despite the challenges in the West. Okay, number two, the defending Western Conference Champions, San Antonio Spurs, just was in Paris where the Spurs were men about town. 59 and a half wins over under McMahon.

I'm going over here too. You know, they went over last year at 62, and you talk about emerging talent. Yeah, I don't, what role should I play here to like, to fill in for Bontemps to like, you know, like taking a position opposite you on the Spurs? What should I be saying?

You could play the role of not paying off your bet yet. Okay. That's the role that you can play because Bontem sure as hell hasn't, despite the fact that I think they went like 21 and a half games over that over-under. Is that what it ended up being? The over-runner, I think, was 40 and a half, and they ended up at... I know they made it by, like, mid-January.

Yeah, I know. And the thing about them is, you talk about ascending talent, Wimby is just at the launching point. Stefan Castle is launching. Dylan Harper, I think, is going to end up being their second best player, maybe as soon as this year. You could certainly argue that he was in the finals. So their core, they could have three all-MBA players as soon as this season.

I think, you know, obviously, Wembe is, but Wembe's, I expect to be the MVP frontrunner. Stefan Castle is going to be in the All-N-A conversation, if he can stay healthy and keep his trajectory. It might be a little bit early for Harper, but he's on his way. And then Jackson, Jackson wants to know if you paid off the Wembe injury amendment, which I don't even remember what was from the year before. Yes, I paid for, Bontems went out to, it was a lunch, so I kind of, but yeah, I paid it off. I sure did. Yeah. You know, Bontims, Bontems was so determined not to pay off his bet that he left the pod. I know, no kidding. It's one of his unfinished pieces of business.

Now, the Spurs did have one pretty significant loss this offseason. They lost Sean Sweeney, their associate head coach, the architect of their defense. Now, pretty good foundation for a defense, if you're going to be an architect, is to have Victor and Yamma. But they brought in Billy Donovan. I'm not sure if Donovan is going to run their defense. I'm not sure exactly how that, you know. A fascinating hire by Mitch Johnson and Billy Donovan.

Like I tried to think back to something comparable to it. I think Larry Brown came in as an assistant at one point in his career. But that's an amazing addition to your bench. Yeah, yeah. And, yeah, but again, so much young talent. I think Carter Bryant's got a chance to be a pretty significant contributor this year. Yeah, Carter was over in Paris with the guys working out. So yeah, Carter Bryant's got some upside. I talk about a guy who was a big-time athlete who was just beginning to harness what he can do. That is the definition of raw talent right there. I agree with you.

But again, they won 62 games last year and Wimby missed what it ended up being 19, I think. Well, he got the exception to, he was a little bit under, right, the 65 and he got the, they kicked it over the edge, right? So the NBA Cup exception, yeah. Yeah. I agree with you. I hate, I hate going over. I don't like that.

We got to have some conflict. I know. Okay. So Spurs at 60 and a half, or Thunder at 60 and a half, Spuror. is a 59 and a half and now we have a moat a a separation a uh uh you know a a border uh because all the way down you know uh Vegas you know draft king thinks there's only 250 win teams in the west um and they both are going to win 60 basically and then all the way down and i got to be honest with you this is bullish with some unknowns about the nuggets this is bullish uh

But they have the nuggets with the third best over under in the West, 49 and a half. What say you? At some point I need to go under on some of these teams. But I can't quite yet. If Joker's healthy, they're a 51 team, you know? Like they won 54 last year. Jamal Murray had a good year last year.

Jamal Murray had a great year last year. Christian Brown had a bad year last year, I think in large part because of an ankle injury that caused them to miss a ton of on time and lingered. But again, Cam Johnson had a bad year last year, and I think in large part, because he was playing in a system

they'd never played him before. And I think it affected him. Well, that's interesting because typically the system of, hey, you're a shooter and Joker's going to get your great looks is a pretty good system to play. I know.

I'm not trying to make an excuse for him. I hear you. But what he was being asked to do is something that he had not done before. Yeah, and look, there's a huge question mark here, which is, will Peyton Watson be on the roster? He had a great month that he's hoping to cash in on. And, you know, it's looking very uncertain at this point. There are certainly other teams that are interested.

You know, his asking price of basically Christian Brown's contract, I don't think he gets that. I'll also believe that he plays for the qualifying offer when I see it. And you know what? I'll also believe that they go through the full season with Cam Johnson still on the roster if they keep Peyton Watson when I see that. You know, because you can talk about, oh, you know, we've got freedom to spend. The luxury tax payment's not determined when the season starts. That's correct.

So. Yeah. And I mean, that's the other thing. They may want to just, I mean, I don't have any insight in this, but they may want to see whatever the team is, whether it's with Peyton Watson or whether it's, you know, by the way, like I keep seeing all these, you know, people speculating or reporting on Peyton Watson sign and trades.

There's, the Nuggets are a second apron team and there's restrictions now involved in what you can do with sign and trades. And also just like, hey, if they're going to lose them, they don't necessarily want to get salary back. Right. So anyway. But again, I'm just not going under 50 on a Joker team.

I agree. If he plays 70-something games, 70 games, you know, they get to play all these games in Denver. Their front six are still really good. After that, it gets a little squishy. So, you know, their off-season is really, you know, you've got to give them an incomplete. but the real question is going to be whether or not they slice any more salary or you know or what happens.

More Hoop Collective podcast after this. All right, after them, the Minnesota Timberwolves come in at 48.5. The Timberwolves are all right, well, let me just ask you this, 48.5 on the Timberwolves, fourth highest Wolverunder, your thoughts? I should ask you. Didn't you just hang out with him in Paris too? They had been.

basically their whole roster over there. In Paris. Oh, yeah, Rudy Gaubert hosting. I didn't see that. I didn't see that. The Mela Ball and Ann Edwards apparently picked up all the travel costs. You know, they had like 14 or 15 guys over there. Yeah, they had like a full-blown thing.

Well, I do know that I walked past a very expensive hotel, and there was a whole bunch of sprinter vans there, which is usually an indication of NBA players about. There you go. There was one video. where Rudy pans to the Eiffel Tower shimmering at night, and then you hear Anne's voice, that looked like Walt Disney. Well, also Victor did that too on his Instagram,

where he said it's just like the Riverwalk. Yeah, yeah. I am a Timberwolves skeptic this season. I've been a lamello ball skeptic for a while now. You have, yes. In his defense, he proved me wrong last year. And the Hornets were so convinced by it. They shipped them out the first chance they got.

But typically you make a big trade. And I've learned just the hard way because remember how high I was on the Dame Bucks. I think I picked them first in our Winspool draft that year. You make a big trade like this. It's going to take some time to figure out fit, chemistry, all those kind of things. That's in part why they went over to Paris's group, start working on the chemistry and all that kind of stuff. I know Aunt Lemello spent some time together this summer, but I just think playing styles can take some time to figure out,

and they don't have a lot of depth, and they do have a gaping hole at PowerFord that they're going to have to fill, it appears, by playing Jaden McDaniels out of position. So I think when it comes to Minnesota, first off, I just want to point out, Chris Finch is a very good coach, and he has routinely been able to maximize his team when it matters.

You know, maybe not in November, maybe not always in February, but he's often been able to maximize this team. So I think there's three things that you have to ask yourself with Minnesota. One, is Jaden McDaniels about to take a leap after the way he played in the playoffs last year? Is this role, them clearing out some stuff for him? Like, is this, by the way, he's extension eligible.

So that's something to keep it a lie on. Is he about to, is he about to like leap forward into like being an all-stop? are. That's number one. Number two, there's Lamello Ball getting there and Lamello Ball's health free up Ant in a way that they weren't able to do for the last two seasons. And ever since they traded Carl Towns, where those two work really well together. And the space comes out and, you know, playing off Lamello ends up being like an unlocking mechanism. And then have to deal with a million double teams. Yeah.

exactly. The third thing, and I'm, you know, I don't have enough information on this, but would be interesting to watch is whether Johann Berengier, their first round, their seven-footer, I guess he's 6-11, this guy that they drafted in 25, who they really high on, it was essentially like off limits in all these trades, and it looked good in Summer League, whether or not he's ready to step in and like make a, you know, a contributing role. They need him to be a quality. They need him to be a quality backup to Gobert. They need him to give them 16, 18 minutes a night. And he's the same type of player. You know, springy, rim running, rim protecting, that type of guy. I mean, or is he a guy who comes in and, like, is able to, like, you know, make a, he's not just, like, filling a role. Like, he's able to, like, be a plus player.

Yeah. I don't know the answer to that. A plus players. But my point is, if Rudy's on the roster. his role is limited because you don't play those guys aren't playing together probably not i agree but i just you know that's their upside young guy i mean they've had these young guys that that have had upside i mean taren shannon has a little bit no he's got he's got some but are one of these young guys are going to hit and you know they they're really super high on berengey so um i am inclined to go under on this

but i am also saying this with these big open questions that i openly admit i don't know The other thing with the wolves is they aren't, as you said, always a great regular season team, but they are a team that one of the few teams that's won playoffs series in each of the last few years, including a couple trips to the conference finals. Without question. It didn't be better in the playoffs. Without question. All right.

Houston Rockets with the fifth in the over under 47 and a half, one of your teams, like, man. Yeah, I'd go over on this. There were a 52 win team last year, despite the fact that they'd sorely missed Fred Van Blee. And Van B. will be back. You know, I don't like, look, well, Van B. Just hit the ground running.

I can't guarantee that. But he'll be back, you know, with more than a full year removed since he tore his ACL. And apparently did some other damage to the knee when he did that, by the way. But so, but more. anything, it's not even about like what his numbers are going to be. They have a floor general. They have a leader. They have a guy to run the offense. They have a guy to set a tone for them defensively. So just with the return of Van Vleet, and I don't know right now what Adam, Stephen Adams,

status is entering the season, but they really miss those two guys late in the year. They miss Van Vlead all season. and they still won 52 games. I was looking up their numbers. Remember, they were eighth in offense last season, despite being a horrible fourth quarter team. They weren't eight in clutch offense. I can assure you that. And they were bottom five in turnovers and like bottom 10 and assists.

And in the fourth quarters, they were almost worse. Look, like, I'm still not 100% convinced of the Durant fit, but I am convinced of Durant's still ability to be a game-changing player. And look, I don't know what they're going to get out of Marcus Smart, but he was pretty good for the Lakers, especially in the second half last year.

Yeah, they need his toughness, though. That's what they wanted from him. I'm 47 and a half. Yeah, I mean, They've got good players. They got really good players for 47. I realized it was a tanking league, but they won't 152 last year. They won 52 last year.

They've got a good coach, and they, I got to go over on that. And they need Shungoon to be better than he was last year, not necessarily statistically, but just overall. And they need them in Thompson to take another step, if not a leap. They've got pretty premium. talent, man. We've got pretty premium talent. All right. Sixth on your scorecard, but first in your heart.

The Los Angeles Lakers. What an insult by Draft Kings, a team that's finished in the top three in the West the last two years, dropped them down to 45.5 over under, which is probably slightly higher than you'd normally see because you always count the Laker fans to bet the over. McMahon. Well, yeah, I was going to say the fact that Draft Kings has them this low, I'm sure they are expecting the over to be hammered. And that kind of tells you what they think. Look, I get why they moved on from LeBron or there was the mutual decision or whatever.

Like, I get why. I don't want to get hung up on that, but like. Okay. I get why they were, I get why they were prepared to move on from LeBron. Okay. Because they didn't target Walker Kessler for. flippantly and look what they paid them. I think they intended. I don't want to get, I can't, I can't have aggregation in my life. It's okay. My point is just this. What they were trying to do was put

a long-term core in place around Luke and Austin Reeves. And to do that, you couldn't have LeBron making a bunch of money. Now, why didn't LeBron take the minimum from the Lakers? That's a whole different story. Point being is, I understand why they decided their future is, their future is more. more important than LeBron right now. But LeBron was a massive contributor to that team last year. The Kessler thing, I do think Kessler is a very good fit who upgrades a position that was absolutely necessary, especially when you have Luka Dantzsch on the roster and Luca Dantz just knocking on the office door saying, hey, you said you're going to give me a big.

I didn't love the rest of their summer, though. I haven't said that honestly 45 and a half does surprise me that does surprise me that it's that low well here's the thing Reeves and Luca are so good and there is a reasonable sample size that shows that those guys playing

together are going to generate a fair amount of wins even if you have deficiencies elsewhere I also think that the you know here's the thing when you look at Kessler so many people are going to to focus on the trade cost. And I do think that we could get into a situation in the next six to 12 months where

we say, boy, if the Lakers had just handled that a little differently, they would be able to do whatever that is part of the opportunity cost. But if you look at the actual fit, it's a great fit. Yeah. Well, and he needs to be a first team all. defensive selection. And remember it's positionless. So I'm saying he needs to be one of the first team.

I mean, I don't know about first team. Wendy, if he's not a top five defense player in the league, they are going to be abysmal. I'm not going to focus on top five. He needs to have a good season. He needs to have, he needs to play a lot of games. And he needs to fill the role that he, that he was brought there for, which is to rim run and defend the front of the rim.

He needs to clean up a lot of messes on the defensive end of the floor. Well, he can do that. That's what they brought him there for. You know, as far as Mammish Kavili, I felt that Rui Hachamur was undervalued. Yeah, that was curious to me, just from a fit standpoint, too. And Colin Sexton over,

either smart or canard was curious to me. Also, it was a lot to pay for Quentin Grimes. I don't know. I'm going to say I'm going to lean over because I think their three best players are pretty good. And I think they fit together. And I agree Walker's got to defend. But I can say that I think they're going to win a lot of games without saying I think they're going to win the championship. Yeah.

So, but, you know, Vegas thinks what they think. Okay. This number surprised me a little bit. Portland Trailblazers with the seven at 43.5 over-under. I don't like Portland this year. I think they've got a lot of pretty good players, but the fits are weird. You know, like John Dame is your starting back court.

Man, Donovan Klingen better be a hell of an elite defender too. You know, like I just, I've got chemistry concerns. I've got just organizational concerns. I think the whole franchise is a complete mess right now because of all the stuff happening with the arena, the relocation, the owner being a total cheap ass. The coach come in with handcuffs on because the owner is such a cheap ass and the way that the contract was done.

I just think there's too much mess around the Blazers right now for them to be a playoff team. I didn't understand how Damien Lillard, fit when they signed him a year ago. I understood why they signed him. I didn't understand how he fit. And that was before they traded for Jamerrant, who I also don't understand how he fits.

Because of Drew Holiday, because of Shaden Sharp, because of Scoot Henderson, I, I, I, and here's the thing. There have been times in the past, and I always go back, the case I always go back to, is when the Rockets had Chris Paul and James Harden. That trade happened. And I was like, I don't get it.

And Darryl Morey said, just watch. Kevin McHale, who was the coach, said, just watch. Or was it Dan Tony. Dan Tony. Dan Tony was like, I know, whatever. I'm getting older. But I remember talking to Dan Tony. I remember talking to Dan Tony, like, midway through the season.

He's like, what do you think? this is my first year in the league. It's like, I knew what I was doing. I was like, well, you're right. You know, and I remember when the, when the wolves traded for, you know, they had Carl Towns, they traded for Rudy Gobert. And I went to training camp and I was like, I don't get it. And Finch was like, just watch.

And so, you know, Mike and Norrie could say, just watch. And I can, you know, we could be sitting here in mid-November going, oh, my gosh, this was the vision. But it's hard for me to, you know, to get there. And they also, you know, they've been trying to trade Jeremy Grant forever. like. So they finally get that done. And I'm not really sure how their front court rotation all fits. Well, their best player is not John Moran. It's not Damien Lillard. Is Denny Obdia. Correct. And then you've got Tumani Camaro, who is one of the better three and D defenders in the

league. But is one of those guys come off the bench because you've got three guards that you need to start? I don't. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know who the start. I don't know the starting life's going to be. And like for all the focus on, hey, what's the chemistry between Jha and Dane? Again, their best player is Denny Obvia. So, you know, he needs the ball in his hands too. Hell yes. And he's a guy who's a high usage player who also needs pick set for him and needs isolation set for him because he gets a large part of his score. on bull drives to the brim and you know you need space and you need the ball and you need potentially guards to set screens by the way i am fascinated to see i don't know if we'll talk before then but if you hadn't talked by media day damian lillard's uh media day session is going to be fascinating because dame is one of portland's favorite sons and so uh i would be stunned if he doesn't let me just be careful what i say I would expect Dame to have some comments about the Blazers' future in Portland.

Exactly. So I point out that Dame learned has a no trade clause. And it's just that that whole thing is an unhealthy situation. It just is. And how does that affect the basketball? Black clouds looming over franchises don't tend to benefit the basketball product. I think Portland is going to probably be a playing team. I just will say under 43 and a half just because.

Just out of general principle. All right. We have another gap here. The rest of the league, draft king thinks, the rest of the conference, draft king thinks is going to have a losing record. They think there's going to be seven teams of losing records,

which starts out with the Warriors and Sons, both at 40 and a half. God, the Warriors have taken a lot of criticism. Like, as if they're, you know, like,

if I was a Pelican, fan. I'd be like, what do we do this off season? Like, you know, why am I? The thing about the Warriors is they are judged through the prism of a dynasty and the dynasty has been gone for a while. But everybody admits nobody, nobody admits any differently. And the, and the warriors are actively trying to do all these deals. Yeah. But just in terms of the, the over under, there were a 37 win team last year. You know, when Jimmy coming back, we don't know. It's going to be a while. You know, Steph at this age, it's not fair to expect him to play.

I agree. I am taking the under on this, but I also am just sort of reacting to everybody ripping the hell out of. Yeah. And again, I think that is just purely people viewing that franchise through the prism of it's a dynasty. And Steph's got to go out winning championships. And it's just like, that's just not a realistic scenario. And in the last week, Mike Dunley, the and Joe Lakeb have given interviews sort of like, you know, Dunleavy said, like, you know, trust me, I am out there trying.

I, you know, I am making offers. I am not just sitting here going, boy, it's so great. Look at these stuff highlights on a loop in the facility. Like, he's trying. So I'm just, the other thing is the Warriors spent, the concept that the Warriors haven't given, like, Steph enough. Like, I agree, their draft picks didn't work out, and they're trying to dig their way out of that.

They gave him great teams, and they spent extraordinary sums of money to give themselves chances to win. if you want to say you didn't like their offseason, that's fine. If you want to say, I don't think this team's going anywhere, that's fine. I don't like the narrative that the Warriors haven't done enough or disrespected stuff. Just watch and see what happens. Watch them win 37 games next year. That'll disprove it.

I know, but. I hear what you're saying. But again, because of all the success, that they've had and because of Steph's popularity, they are judged by the public in a different way than any other team than except for maybe the Lakers. More Hoop Collective Podcast after this. Sons 40 and a half. Listen, the Sons, I thought, really had a healthy year last year to end up at 45.

I thought that was overachieving. You know, they didn't make a talent addition with Miles Bridges. I think they don't win as many as last year, but I'll take over. I'll say they're a 500 team. I'll go barely over 40 to half. Devin Booker didn't have the greatest season last year. I'm not saying Devin has to prove anything, but their upside is, you know, I mean, I could sit here and talk about the nuances of Kamon Malewatch.

and obviously it would be really good if he turned into like a defensive playmaker but the truth is like they need Devin Booker to be a bona fide all-star you're talking about you need Walker Kessler to make all defense yeah they need Devin Booker to be an all-star and you know by the way

like he is proven he can play a role and be super effective on teams but you know well they need to they need to not bring Jayling or they need to bring Janling green off the bench have Congolese start so Devin Booker can be a two guard and not towards me, Playpoint guard.

Listen, whatever you got to do to get a better production out of Devin Booker is what you're looking for. It wasn't terrible last year. I was 26 and 6. No, we'll look at his shooting. Yeah, look at his shooting percentages. Yeah, I didn't shoot the three well. Other than that, he was pretty close to what he'd been.

They're just a team that has a very, you know, relatively low ceiling. and it's going to get lower and lower and lower because the way they've operated, giving up all the picks in the future. Miles Bridges did not extend his contract. And my understanding is he's probably going to wait and try to extend it later. You may see him come in and really have like, you know, a sizable role. I think they have an intent to, not only an intent to pay him, but they have an intent to really give him a big role.

So we'll see how that goes. West Lansing, maybe. Guess I go over again because I think they're, some of their top in town. I guess I go over. I'm squishy. Yeah. All right.

In 10th of jazz, 35 and a half. Now, you know how I feel about the flip at jazz. The flip is a coming, and it's a coming right now. And I think the jazz, How many did they win last year? A lot less than that. 22 last year.

All right. And all 22 of them, you had the age is just, you know, cussing up a storm. 22 wins. What was their roster, assuming, you know, relative health? I mean, forget their roster. What was their injury report? I know. But I'm saying this.

Let's say they played normal, straight-up. up basketball. What was that team? I mean, 30, 31, maybe. You think so? You think it was a lot better than that? If they had Jaron Jackson and Walker Kessler all year long, Kessler had this shoulder surgery like a weekend of the season. I understand. Their roster last year was,

like, they're over under 35 and a half. I think they had a 30, 15. Kessler ain't there? Kessler's not there now. So who cares about what could have been with Kessler? Okay, fine. But I think even if they don't do the Jaron Jackson trade, they had a team that could have won 35 games last year. We can agree to disagree on that one.

So you're going over or under? I'm going to go under here. I think they're not by much. But they're playing in the Western Conference. It's tough in the Western Conference. They don't have a starting center on the roster. You know, they'll go with the Thunder and Lightning acting. Yeah.

And I love Darren Peterson. How many rookies really impact winning? I think he'll score points. I think that he's going to have to learn to impact winning. You know, Kianti George, you know, it's really kind of a proevy year for him coming off of a massive leap last year. But can he, you know, he's got to be a hell of a lot better defensive too, by the way. But, you know, can he influence winning?

And again, so somebody's got to lose some games in the Western Conference. I agree. We can't have all these teams winning 40 plus games. Not that I think this is going to be a changer to their wins, but I really like Josh Akoji for two years and 12 million. I thought that was a good signing. Yeah.

I think though, I just also think it's a very young team that's going to lose a lot of close games because they don't know how to win yet. They have to learn how to win. I'm going over. I think they were a 34, 35 win team last year if they played their whole team. And I think they're going to be better.

They're going to have Jaron Jackson and Peterson is going to, I agree, he might not drive winning, but he won't necessarily have to. And I think Will Hardy takes the handcuffs off and, like, actually coaches them up and coaches to win games instead of standing over there with his hands in his pockets. Like, I'm not saying they're going to the conference finals. I'm just saying I'm going over.

Well, Larry Markan will be an effective score for sure. Number 11, you're Dallas Mavericks, 34 and a half. Ouch. Yeah, boy, I tell you what, if it's under. This is a tough one. man like that's a if it's under the flag family is going to be perturbed remember cooper flag came in the league thinking man this is awesome i'm a number one pick who gets to win right away and no you don't now listen the mavericks tanked pretty damn hard last year too they are getting

back kairi how do we do you don't you think santi aldama was a nice piece of business yeah i think he was a nice piece of business i think the way they got zachary resace was a nice piece of business, I'll go over here. I think it's going to be tough for them to crack the playoff picture, but I'll go over 34 and a half. And again, if they have Kyrie and Kyrie can stay healthy, that's going to solve a whole lot of their offensive issues. Well, absolutely. I mean, let me tell you when guys do start to impact winning in their second year. Well, and that's the thing. For Cooper Flagg, I'm really curious about him. And, you know, will it be an all-star of this year, can he be all-N-B-A this year? Because he's that kind of talent. There's no question about

that. What are we thinking for, do we think how much of a role with Mores Johnson's going to play? Like, is that, do you think that's, that's a great question. I think they got him to contribute right away. And look, they've got some major questions at center. Yeah, I mean, like, we have a, we need a Derek lively update. Well, and unfortunately, like, again, you know, we talked about a little redraft product recently. Like the potential for lively is still immensely high, but unfortunately he just is, he just cannot count on him to be on the floor. The last update we got at the end of June, he hadn't been progressing to running yet.

Do I have a different update that I missed? I believe he is running now, but I don't want to speak with confidence because I've been on vacation. Well, me too. Just to be real honest with you. This was a low, this was one of the most. surprising numbers on this board. But I'm not like saying I vehemently disagree with it.

I'm just, you know. And if we're being real, Daniel Gafford is still on the roster because they couldn't find the trade market for them. And the reason they couldn't find the trade market for him is because there's huge questions and concerns around the league about his health. So I'm going to go over. Yeah, 34 and a half is pretty low. Cooper flag.

Come on. Cooper flag and Kyrie. and the Kyrie, I'm fascinated to see the fit with Kyrie, and I'm fascinated just to see, like, I don't know, man. Like, I am open-minded to mid-season, Kyrie coming to the Mavericks and saying, hey, you know, I would like to go somewhere where I have a chance to contend right now, and here's my list of teams.

And I think that might be in the best interest of everybody. It's been a, like, everybody here loves Kyrie, but again, you're building around a 19-year-old prodigy. Okay, but like, let's see how Kyrie looks first before we... Yeah, I hear you. People I think, you know, just because you didn't play last year, people forget this guy is really special. And I think Cooper Flag is really special.

So number 12, Memphis Grizzlies is 28 and a half. Under. Cameron Boozer? I mean, again, I think he's going to put up some big numbers. I think Boozer will put up big numbers. I think he's going to have a really good career. They're a young team. It's hard for young teams to win, period.

It's especially hard when you're dealing with the depth that there is in the Western Conference. Zach Edie's health is as big of a question mark. These big guys. Definitely. You know, but they're teams that's best, if your best players are rookie, you're probably not going to win a lot of games. This is the spending at the top of their salaries. So Jeremy Grant, who has two years and $70 million left.

I don't think anybody thinks he's a $70 million player at this point. But that's their highest paid player. The second highest paid player is Beefsteo, Isaiah Stewart, who they traded for this summer, who is a backup. A high-level backup, but has been a backup. Okay. Their third highest-paid player is Cameron Boozer. a rookie.

Their first highest paid player is tired your own. So, yeah, that sounds like an under to me, with all due respect to everybody. Well, it's not like anybody in Memphis thinks that they're built to win this year. I agree. And listen, Cambooser could have, Cambooser could average 20 and 10 in win rookie of the year. Let's be honest. Well, and Cooper Flagg won rookie of the year last year,

and the Mavericks won 26 games. Number 13, New Orleans Pelicans, 27 and a half. Under. They were trying to win last year. You're darn right they were. You know, they're going to scroll down. They didn't have control their pick. Yeah, you've got to find them with all the tankers,

but they sure as they weren't tanking last year. No, they weren't. In fact, they had a couple of stretches where they won that broke the hawks heart. The Hawks were thinking they might get into the tankers. top five. Yeah, and they benefited from tanking to get to 26 wins. You know, so a couple of things. One is always Zion.

Is he going to be healthy? I don't know. What do you want me to say? Jonté Murray didn't play the whole year last year, looked pretty good when he came back. Would you expect him to be stronger this year? They are trying to win. And they have Jamal Mosley who got a really good bounce when he took over the magic. That's what you're betting on.

You're also betting on. Jeremiah Fears and Derek Queen to have a second year bounce. That's what you're basically saying is that you're going to take what you had and perform better with what you had. Let me ask you this. What was the major lineup change that James Brago made when they were winning games late last year? It was a tank of Paloosa, but they were winning games and disappointing the hot. He took Fears and Queen out of the starting lineup.

Yeah. Yep 28 and a half is low But they're in the West They won 26 last year So You're basically saying You're going to think

They're going to win three or four more I don't Because I think a lot of the 26 that they won We're tanking and we're happy to let them get one I know I agree Under Or

Yeah Under number 14 Sacramento Kings 21 and a half as what about the flip um not so much no that the kings are a complete mess too um i mean and and they're going to be putting the ball in the hands of a lottery pick rookie who you know eight cups got talent i don't want to react to a rough summer league but like i just They're going to be the worst team in the West next year. They've got the lowest paid numbers. They've got the lowest paid coach in the league, you know.

Lower than Mike Anori? That's what I've been told. I don't doubt you're reporting, sir. He kept his job, though. Well, thank you, Vivek. Doug Christie kept his job. I think Acuff is going to put up numbers, but they're going to be inefficient. and one of the easiest ways to lose a lot of games is to have young guards.

Yep. So, and. And they've got a black cloud with the whole Zach Levine situation. Right. And, you know, I don't even know where Subonis is at. You know, he was on the trade block. Yeah, I'm going to go under. Okay, so the clippers are off the board here.

They would be the 15th team. You know, the cliff, it's hard to evaluate the clippers. The worst case scenario for the clippers is Kauai suspended and still in the roster. and they just have a $50 million hole in their roster. And if that happens, they're going to be really, it's going to be a tough year. Right. Well, what you're looking for is Keaton Wogler to look like he can be your cornerstone

of the future. Yeah. Regardless of, you know, everything else. So, and, you know, Darius Garland and Keaton Wagler, can they play together? Does that work? You know? You know, had they signed Rihachamura? I thought that was a good value signing.

So, yeah. I guess we'll wait and see. It's very hard to evaluate them. You know, it's also, no, I don't want to get into that. But they got Ruehachimur for $14 million a year. I thought it was a nice value pickup. But if you're facing like some sort of probation, I don't know if that matters. but they're off the board.

Good work, McMahon. The Eastern Conference is coming up soon. By the way, on the Eastern Conference, to say it's tightly packed as an understatement. There's not these wide gaps like you have in the West. There's a lot more nuance over in the East. So we'll talk about that soon. Thank you so much to all of our producers, Miles, Jackson, Mark, at all.

Thank you to McMahon, as always. Thank you for watching, listening. the Hoop Collective. We'll talk to you soon. Spoiler, Lord, these Sixers-O-R-R-O-Runners, 81.5. Adios me.