Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective - Revealing The True NBA Finals Contenders + Tight NBA Awards Races & Things To Watch Down The Stretch

Episode Date: February 18, 2026

Brian Windhorst is joined by ESPN's Tim Bontemps and Tim MacMahon to break down what teams in the NBA have a 5% chance to win the NBA Finals this season. Then, the guys tackle some of the tight battles for the NBA end of season awards before talking about the three things they are most excited for down the stretch of the season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, sports fans, the ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place. The ESPN app is your home to thousands of live events, ESPN shows, and originals across every ESPN network and service. And now you can check if you already have ESPN Unlimited as part of your TV package for no additional calls. Visit activate.esPN.com to learn how to access your account or sign up, then start streaming in the ESPN app. It's all of ESPN all in one place. Sign up or activate now. Hello, welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which you're doing on Monday night, which we're doing for various reasons, mostly because of my issues.

So hopefully this won't go too stale. Joining us from New York City is Tim Bontovs. You know, McMahon, when I listened to the pod Monday morning, and I heard Brian open up with a five-minute speech about how he was sick and getting sicker, I wasn't really sure if we were going to be doing any pods at all this week or maybe ever again. So I'm glad we're here at least for one more before our guy wastes away. Yeah, well, I told you guys a minute ago, I literally woke up this morning with a full slate of TV booked and I did not know if I could speak. And so I literally spoke out loud, testing, one, two, three.

And this voice came out and was deemed good enough to limp through. Joys from Dallas, Texas, where he's just back from the West Coast, is Bann McMahon. Howdy, partners? I returned home with a light case of the sniffles, but I'm going to brave through this. I'm just going to fight through it, tough it out. Here we go, baby. All right. Well, happy All-Star break, everybody.

McMahon looks like you got a heck of a tan for the people watching on the... He does. The YouTube's and the TV channels. A little bit of sun. You know, kind of chilly, though. Definitely a hoodie weather out there in SoCal. To text in SoCal, complaining about the weather. Not complaining.

It was rainy today, but that's okay. So we're in the middle of the All-Star break, and McMahon and I are celebrating with illness, and Bond Demp's celebrating with infant child. That's adulthood. That's fine. That's right. All right. So as we go through this, a few years ago, Darryl Moore,

crowned something that we call the 5% club. Bontems, you want to explain what the 5% club is if folks don't know? Yeah, I don't remember what year it was, but Darrell, I think it was during the Rockets battles with the Warriors, where essentially he said, if you have a 5% or better chance of winning the title, you should go all in to try to win the title every year. You have that level of percent chance. and so it's become sort of a shorthand around the league

I would say for teams that you think have a somewhat realistic shot of winning a title in a given year in different years there's different numbers of teams that are in that group I personally think we'll see how many everybody agrees on but I think this year in part because the east is maybe the most

wide open conference we've ever seen I think there might be a lot more in it than people might think. 2012, the 5% rule, which was the 5% rule of the 5% theory, which he did in a piece with our colleague, Zach Lowe. Well, before the Warriors Dynasty. Yeah, I thought it was later. I would have bet the under on that or the over on that. That's what my brief Google search provided,

that it was on in the Grantland column. And by the way, when he says 5% rule, he's like, he wasn't guessing. wasn't like a feel thing. Like, it's based on simulations. Every team has their own internal analytics department. I do have our basketball power index, which is our little nerdy number formula. Anybody want to guess how many teams this year would qualify based on the BPI?

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves because we're going to say our 5%. Well, he's potential by the numbers. It's not ours. Well, I was just looking it up to get the numbers. So you beat me to him, McMahon. I would guess there's eight total. I thought it'd be somewhere between six and eight. It's half that.

There are only four. Oh, interesting. I will not get ahead of myself any further. I will alert you when we discuss those four. All right. I will say that one of the rules that I pay attention to, I think there's a run. I don't know if Jackson can find this.

I should have prepared you for this Jackson. The consecutive years where a team has won. the championship who's been in the top, I believe, top seven in both offense and defense. I think it's quite a few years in a row. And it doesn't matter where they're ranked in February. In all honesty, it matters where they're ranked at the end. Was Denver top seven defense? Pretty sure they were not, but I will check.

Yeah, I understand why you're asking that. It goes back two years. Yeah. Two glorious years. Maybe a good shorthand, though, for sure. Whether it's every single year, it's a very good shorthand. Yeah. If you're not going to be top in one or top seven, 13.

Yeah. If you're not going to be a top seven defense team. Denver was eight. 13th? Yeah. Yeah. Just have the best offense that we've seen in the long times. Right.

Okay. So let's just say it's roughly top 10. You need to be, you generally need to be top 10 in both offense and defense. There may be an outlier or two. But that's a, that's a rule that, you know, I think leads to. a 5% that's a big component of it. So, all right. So we're going to take a look here at the teams that we believe have the five, that are in the five, have a 5% chance.

People like my conceit, even though Bontemps has also been doing this for years, but people always ask me about the idea of booking hotel rooms. When we, you know, that's sort of like our, the way we, we, we think a team has a chance to make it. Where do we book hotel rooms in the finals? And I currently only have one set of hotel rooms booked in the finals. Actually, I have two. I have two. I'm also, I'm behind on this as well. I've got three. Bontentz probably has like eight because he like. I actually only have one. I'm not, I haven't gone through and done it. The one for all of us is OKC. Yeah. OKC. The second one has an asterisk. in it because the World Cup is in Foxborough this year in June. And Boston hotel rooms are notoriously

difficult to book in the spring. Oh. So I booked Boston hotel rooms, not because I think the Celtics are going to get there, although obviously, you know, they certainly could. But it's, you know, it's more about World Cup than anything else. So yes, I reserve the right, obviously, to add or lead as those come. And by the way, just real quick, because I've seen some people say something about this. Hotel rooms are, you know, you don't book a, you don't, obviously you can book hotel room that's prepaid, but we don't. We don't. We don't book hotel rooms that are prepaid. So it's not, I said people, you know, I said in the past, I've spent $0. Um, uh, anyway. I think that the most interesting way I think to start this then is how many other teams in the West

do we give a real shot? Because I would say I personally would only give one. Okay, I would say two. BPI still has OKC is 57.9% they have got a 57.9% chance to win the championship. That feels pretty damn high. I would bet Oklahoma City would sign up for that right now. Okay. Yeah, I think OKC is still clearly the favorites, but I don't know if I would wager OKC versus the field right now.

I mean, obviously, if basically 58% you would, BPI does not have any other 5%ers in the West. I would have two. I would give a little slice of that OKC percentage to the Nuggets, who are 3.9 here, and a little slice to the Spurs who are 3.6. Spurs are interesting because even though they had such a tremendous record against the Thunder and the regular season. They did not do anything at the deadline.

And, you know, there are some teams that are, you know, that don't want to do significant deals at the deadline. They don't believe in it. A year ago, the Spurs traded for Deerrin Fox at the deadline. Now, I think that was about the value that they liked the value they were getting from the things in that deal. And they saw them as a core player going forward. Obviously, they later signed them to a max extension or a max deal.

But I wondered, Bontem's like, what do I take away from the fact that the Spurs didn't do anything at the deadline? You know, because that sort of violates the Mori rule. Not that, like, you know, you have to do something, but the concept is that's when you go all in. And so I wonder if the Spurs internally believe their number is closer to 3.9 and then the over five that we may want to give it. Well, if you're going by that, then the entire league doesn't think they can win the title because the only team in the top 10 that really made an aggressive top 10 in terms of wins at the deadline that made any sort of aggressive move to get better was ironically the Thunder who traded the first three seconds. That's not true.

Cleveland. Cleveland wasn't in the top 10 in wins in the NBA at the straight-out's corner. All right. What about Boston? in the Boston, I mean, Boston traded Anthony Simons for Nick Vucevich, but they largely were, I shouldn't say largely. They got, I would say, marginally better, but the biggest reason they did that was to get marginally better while also getting out of the luxury tax, which is what they did. That was an answer. But I mean, I'm going to put it one.

No, it wasn't ancillary at all. Half the teams, and they were getting out of the luxury tax and half the teams in the top ten in wins, either got out of the tax, four of them did, or Minnesota. So, saved a lot of money by moving off on my comments. So, true, but Minnesota acted like a team with 5%. Oh,

we're going to talk about the Spurs. You guys are going to just bicker an argument. Well, I, to get back to the Spurs, I don't have, the team I would have in the West with a better than 5% chances,

Denver. I don't think. So we're not going to talk about the Spurs. Because I can answer why they didn't make a trade. If you'd like, if you'd like an answer to your question. They obviously didn't have a deal they liked. Because also,

they want to see what this young group is. They want to give this young group a chance to prove. Which makes me believe that they don't believe that they're in the 5%. I would tell you, based on the conversations I've had with Spurs folks, they definitely do. They do not lack for confidence or swagger. Okay, but the concept of the 5%, the Darry, 5%, is you go all in. Well, and I think a counterpoint to the concept would be Darry's never won a championship. So I don't know if you necessarily have to do everything the way Daryl Morey would do it,

or perhaps you could just run your own franchise the way that you see fit. Well, I understand. They also didn't, he also didn't trade every pick every year that he had. Like, I mean, it's a little. But here's the deal with the spurs. The spurs are very similar to where OKC was not last season for the championship run, but the year before that, right? From, you know, that OKC team was a playing team that didn't make the playoffs.

and zoom up to the number one seed. This spurs team has made a similar leap from not even a playing team to Zoom up to right now. The number two seat. Obviously, loaded one with young talent. You've got your franchise superstar. You've got core pieces you think it can be around them for a long time. That OKC team did the Gordon Hayward deal that basically did nothing but ended up clearing some money out. But they weren't aggressive at the deadline.

And honestly, they even helped facilitate a move for the mavericks at the time. But I don't think you can say that OKC team couldn't win the championship. They didn't. But the team went to the finals out of the West, the Mavericks, in a six-game series, the score was dead even between those teams. So I think the spurs are they feel like they've got a chance. They don't feel like they have to do anything to kind of try to fast forward that. Having said that, did the Thunder not make a mid-season move?

I mean, I don't think anybody thought Gordon Hayward. Basically, every good. be the finishing piece. Basically every good team in the league this year didn't make a move. So I wouldn't lean back on that. Again, you're slamming the calves like the calves. They weren't among the top 10 teams and wins in the league at the trade deadline. If you are reading the Spurs lack of activity at the trade deadline as an indication that

they don't have confidence, I would tell you you are reading it incorrectly. Okay. Now the Rockets, that's a different story. The Spurs, I'm just telling you, that is a group that believes they've got a real deal chance right now despite no seasoning. I know Victor believes it. I'm telling you. People making decisions believe it. Yeah, I think they think they have a chance. I just think at the end of the day, for me, they're going to have to beat the Nuggets and the Thunder to get to the finals. I don't think they're doing that. A team this young that's ever been in the playoffs

has never gone all the way to the finals, and perhaps they will buck that trend and buck all of it be a history. I very much think they're going to be in the mix for a long time. The comparison to the Thunder team two years ago, I think is apt on many levels. We've talked about it multiple times. And it would not shock me at all if they win their first round series and they're in their very competitive second round series against Denver and they lose in six or seven games. Like, I think if you simulate this out, I think that's probably the most realistic outcome. And then they add some stuff this summer. They get some seasoning for all these young guys. They come back next year and they're right there taken off and they're going to be in the mix for a long time.

But Nicole Yolkich has gotten to the end. Jamal Murray is playing the best basketball of his career. We'll see if Denver can get healthy. It might be a year where they just can't get all their guys on the floor. But to me, if I'm putting anybody else in that group out west, but the way Houston's falling off, Minnesota's got flaws, et cetera, Denver is the only team I could put up there with OKC to really be in that. Spurs, Spurs, number seven in offense, number three in defense.

Yeah, Spurs, the Spurs would be third on my list. The Nuggets are, looks, and the Nuggets, their tread deadline activity was to duck the luxury tax, which is reasonable given where they were. They're hoping their additions will be getting Aaron Gordon healthy, getting Christian Brown back in a form, getting Cam Johnson back into form, getting Peyton Watson, now back. I mean, they've really dealt with a ton of injuries, including Joker for a month, and they're still there in the three-seat. And, you know, I agree with you, Bon Tim's, in the sense of, hey, we don't have to wonder if the Nuggets can win a championship. We've seen this core

win a championship. Denver Nuggets, number one in offense, number 24 in defense. That would be a minor concern, but I don't have it right in front of me. But I think if you look up where they are defensive view with Aaron Gordon on the floor. It's a hell of a lot better than 24. And listen, if Gordon's not healthy, which unfortunately he's had a real hard time staying healthy for the last two seasons, if Gordon's not healthy, they don't have a chance to win a championship. He's absolutely the clue that, you know, that elevates them to that level.

But I agree. Number eight in offense, number seven in defense, Minnesota Timberwolves. Yeah. And they went to the, by the way, Timberwolves. And this is a, they've got a 2.0% chance. I'm not arguing that they're in 5%. I'm just saying that they satisfy. And they did go to the conference finals the last couple of years.

But Tim Connolly's telling us what he believes, and that's that they need another superstar. Yeah. He went after KD twice. Action is overworked. Yeah, at the deadline end in the summer. He went after Yonis, you know, despite the fact that the odds are stacked against him

with their pick situation. And he did that knowing that it was going to, complicate things from a, you know, just player, like a ego management standpoint or a psychology standpoint within the locker room, if he thought they were a championship team, he wouldn't be that aggressive to go after another store. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. All right. What does BPI say? How many teams in the Eastern Conference have 5% or more? three would you like me to read them or do you just want me to alert you when we talk about them no go ahead go ahead okay yeah uh calves corner calves corner five point three now i don't know exactly what all goes in the bontam slander could not yeah he could not get enough in there uh the detroit pistons the first place detroit pistons nine point three and those new york knickerbockers nine point seven all right new y Eric Knicks are number three in offense, number 11 in defense. Close, but not quite there.

Cavaliers, number five in offense, number 12 in defense. 12 and 2 in the last 14. Detroit Pistons, number 10 in offense, number two in defense. Yeah. So. The Pistons are somewhat like the Spurs. They got, they did have a hard-fought six-round playoff series against them. next last year, but to go from never having won a playoff series as a group to a championship

is, that's a pretty massive lead. It's basically unheard of. It's the same situation. I mean, the only remotely comparable one is, I'll give Vinnie Goodwill, our colleague, credit for this in the piece we wrote last week. Vincent Goodwill Esquire. The 95 Magic basically were the same, I think they got swept in the first. round the year before and then they went to the finals the next year. It's basically the only

comparison. That's like voting, you know, Shaq most improved player is a second year player. Yeah. But hey, for Victor, I'd say, okay, if you have just a, you know, historically dominant and talented and unique big man who's ascending, then it makes it a possibility. I love Jalen Duren. I wouldn't put him in that category. Now, Kate Cunningham's obviously the face of their franchise. I think the Pistons have a very good chance to come out of the east. The other thing is coming out of the east still puts you pretty slim odds of winning a championship

if one of these three teams that we think is coming out of the West will be there. If you win 12 playoff games, you're going to have a chance. Yeah, to me, that's the reason I said at the beginning that I think there's a lot more teams in this group than people might think off the cuff. It's like last year we got to the, NBA finals, and I did not think it was going to be a long series about the Indian Pacers, we're going to lose in four or five games.

And they were up in game seven on the road when Tyrus Albert got hurt, right? So, like, if you can get to the finals, you have a 5% chance. And to me, the thing that's interesting about this season is I think there's at least five teams in the East that you could look at and say they have a real chance to win the Easter Conference. Detroit obviously deserves to be there. Hold on. What? Number two in offense, number nine in defense. Celtics.

Well, yeah, so I was going to say. Without freedom. Right. So the three teams that... They satisfy that. Right. The three teams that Tim mentioned all obviously deserve to be seen as having a real chance to win, Detroit, Cleveland, and New York. I think at this point you have to say that the Celtics are in that category also.

and there's another obvious team that I'm blanking on at the top of the east as well. You're talking about Philly? Well, Philly, I think, is on the outside of that, but is, I think, talented enough where if they could stay healthy,

which they're not, you know, the chances of that are slim. Oh, Toronto is the other team in the top six. I don't think I could get there with Toronto. I was, I had my math for. You could talk me to Philly more than Toronto

just because you could talk me at a feed. I think it's four, I think it's four with an outside shot at five. But even four teams. Toronto number 16 in offense and Scotty Barnes led defense number six. Yeah. Where's the worst, Philly? Philly number 13 in offense and number 15 in defense.

By the way, BPI gives Toronto a 0.1% chance and Philly a 0.2% chance. Yeah. I mean, I don't like Toronto's offense enough. Obviously, the rating backs that up. Like the Raptors have trouble shooting. I think what's when teams can really key in on them in the playoffs, I think it's going to be hard for them to get enough offense to advance more than a round. But look, if Philly is healthy at the end, like we've talked about,

they have the high-end talent to where they could make some noise in the playoffs. But again, having all that line up and everybody say healthy and get through three rounds of the playoffs, you can't be predicting that to happen right now. But those other four teams, all of them have a real credible argument to get through. And that's like you said, McBan, with Jason Tatum sitting out there as an unknown quantity. And by the way, he has now been practicing. And, you know, I don't think anybody in Boston is obviously predicting. He's definitely coming back.

But I think barring a setback, it's safe to think that's the realistic outcome as he comes back in place at some point this season. and if he could just give them something on top of what they already have, like they might be good enough to get to the finals right now, and that's with him, like you said, not even part of the equation at all. If he just comes back and is a new rotation piece for them over the final two months of the season in the playoffs, that would be a huge addition for the Celtics.

Over the last 15 games, number one offense, number nine defense. How much do we think Cleveland Cavaliers? Oh, I'm sorry, you're moving on. Of course, he's going to Cavs Corner. Zipp right by. He's been all fired about Calf's Corner. My answer on Boosh moving, and he was going to be not much anyways.

Oh, yes. I don't think Vooch is going to start, so it's not really going to matter. He'll be an okay bench player for them, but he'll basically replace Sanfordy Simons off the bench. We've turned the corner right into Cavs Corner, the sizzling Cavs. And listen, they've got James Hardin,

which guarantees a deep, deep, successful playoff run. Deep second round series. I will say that something that happened was interesting last week. It didn't get a lot of attention because it was a lot of stuff going on in the league. But Lawrence Frank gave an update on Darius Garland. And so Garland had been out with a right toe sprain. You were there that night, Bon Tempts when he sprung his toe in Philly. In Philly, yeah.

And Lawrence Frank said that his right toe is healed, but he is out indefinitely with the left toe, which is what he had surgery on and re-injured earlier this year, I think in November. Miami. And so it sort of sheds a little bit of light on why the calves put a second round pick in that deal. Yeah. Because Darius Garland isn't, you know, he's not, is, you know, he's still battling that left foot. And, you know, it also illustrates why the calves felt like, you know, for trying to maximize this season why they moved off of Garland, because I don't, just don't think they knew he, well, where his health was going to be. Yeah, we've talked about. They've got to win, the calves have to win this season. They've got to convince Donovan Mitchell to

want to be there long term. James Hardin obviously is not going to be as good as Darius Garland six years from now, but you can't worry about six years from now. You're going to worry about the next six months, and he's definitely an upgrade right now. No disrespect to the 12 and 2 record over the last 14 games, but there's been a lot of, I would say, subpar opponents in that stretch

for the Cavs. Listen, if you're in the Eastern Conference, you're going to have a lot of subpar opponents. But not in the playoffs. There's a lot of subpar opponents. our opponents out west too, and they've played some of them lately. But coming up over the next couple weeks, they play on a Sunday afternoon on ABC on the 22nd against OKC. Two days later, they're at home against the Knicks.

Later that week, they played the Pistons on the road. They then have a set where they played the Pistons, the Celtics, and the Sixers all in one week at home coming up. So we're going to get some real tests over the next couple of weeks to see just where, you know, this James Hardin, Donovan-Mitchell-led Cavs team is. But when they were cooking last year, it was with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, giving them 48 minutes a high-level offense, and they had this unbelievable offense all the way through. And James Hardin is a really good distributor and still can generate a lot of offense, and he has immediately come in and given them right back to that 48 minutes, a high-level orchestration with the ball. And, you know, it looks a lot more like last year right away.

And by the way, James Hardin is not Gary Payton by any means, but he is. is a bigger, sturdier, better defender, the Darius Garland, which will help the calves at that end, too. And it'll rebound. You know, the thing I've been a little bit impressed and a little bit surprised with is that their clutch chemistry has been so immediate and seemed like so easy. And, you know, that's not saying anything about either a guy, Donovan Mitchell or James Harden, but typically when you acquire star midseason, it takes. takes a little bit of time to kind of get a feel. Like, for example, when the Mavericks got Kyrie, obviously, Kyrie and Luca ended up clicking.

They went to a finals together. But that first season, every time they got in a clutch situation, it was like overly deferring. You could see them, like, actually looking at each other and, like, trying to figure it out in the moment. I remember. Yeah, there was the one play against the Timberwolves where they passed the ball back and forth to each other three or four times

until it was a turnover. in the final seconds. With Donovan and James, you know, and again, we're talking about basically, what is it, a two-game sample size, but they've executed down the stretch. It wasn't on my turn,

your turn type of thing. And I do think the pecking order, like James is still going to have to score for them. He's still going to have to make some big shots, but there is a very, very clear and defined peck in order. It is Donovan Mitchell's franchise, and James is coming in there to be his number, you know, the number two guy and the table setter.

Bonus team. What's that? Bonus team. Bonus team? A team that we are talking about as a bonus. In the last 15 games, number two offense, number six defense. Charlotte. Eastern Conference.

We're not putting Charlotte in five percent club. The Buzz City Killers. What we need Charlotte do is to make the playoffs first. And I do think Charlotte is I'm just. I'm just pointing it out. They are no question. The Hornets have found something. They're turning in the right direction.

I do believe they can be a pesky first-round foe for somebody. And then I think there will be reason to be excited about the hornets going into the summer. So we're into the phase of the season where we start to really pay attention to the award races. The MVP is going to heat up here, and that's going to be a fascinating race, which we'll talk about plenty. But I thought we would at this point here at the All-Star break take a look at some of the other award races. And let's start off with one that's going to be a war of attrition, which I think is defensive player of the year.

So right now, Victor Wenbanyama is eligible. And if he stays eligible, I think he's got a great chance to win. But he's got, you know, he's got, you know, he's got three games left? I think two. Well, how does it, don't you get a bonus for playing in the NBA Cup? No, you're right.

You're right. He's got 41. I thought he missed more games. Yeah, the NBA Cup championship game. He's missed 14 regular season games, but he gets an extra gain because they made the cup file. Right.

So he can miss four. I think he's the favorite. No. Yeah, four. You think? Here's the first thing. Here's my advice to all voters. Defense player of the year, the first thing you do is determined.

Did Wimby hit 65 games? Yes. He's your winner. No, he's not under ballot. Like, he's the most dominant defensive force in the league by a wide margin. Man, wait till you see Dylan again. Oh, man. He is not going to be happy with that statement.

Dylan the villain? Well, you won't see Dylan the villain in the first game after the break. I'll tell you that. Yeah. His 19th, he finally got suspended after his 19th technical. 16 of them counted. He got three rescinded. They tried.

They tried to keep him from here. Listen, if I'm worried about seeing somebody with my opinion that Wimby's the clear-cut defense player of the year as long as he's eligible, if I'm worried about seeing someone, it's a guy who's won four of them. Monsuru Gaubert. Rudy Gaubert. Who you once got a pedicure with? This is a fact. At that point, I believe he had not yet won a single one. Wow.

But he's won four. I probably use another pedicure by now after it. Have you had one since? Oh, me? No, well, here's the thing. My daughters have figured out like, if they say, hey, dad, you want to go get a pedicure, I'll always say yes because I get to hang out with them. And then I always pay for them.

So I've had a few. Um, anyways, uh, when, or Rudy is third, according our guy Jackson at plus 1,400. Um, I don't have the full case in front of me, but there is a pretty strong analytics case. And, of course, it always, you can always start with on off. They're at 107.9 when he's on the floor, which would be, I believe, second in the Lee. And then when he's off the floor, that goes all the way up to a lot more than that. Oh, 116.2, which would be pretty far down. So this is the difference between second and a lot worse than second.

I think this is a pretty simple race, like you said. If Victor can avoid injury and stay eligible, he's going to win the award. Second and 20 seconds is a difference, by the way. Yeah, if Victor is not eligible for the award, I think it comes down to two people. I think it comes down to Rudy. You just laid out his case and Chad Holmer. It will be one of those two. I think Chet would win.

Thunder are the best defense in the league. Chet is an excellent defender. I think you can attempt to make an argument that he's in the conversation with Victor. I don't think he's going to beat Victor. But he's had an excellent defensive season and is an excellent defensive player. And I think if Victor doesn't, is not eligible for the award, again, assuming he is healthy and eligible for it, I think it'll be him or Chet. Which will just add to Whimmy's motivation and make sure he plays 65 games, by the way.

I think Chet's only missed seven games, so Chet's got a lot more. Chet should be all right. Let's hope he stays healthy. The other factor here, if we're being real honest, Rudy has won four. That ties him for the most all time.

The bar for Rudy to get a fifth defense player of the year is pretty high, especially like the guy for whatever reason you want to speculator pick, the guy gets heavily criticized, not just by media, but really by a lot of players. He heavily criticizes his own teammates. This is true, too. So. So anyways, I just think the bar for Rudy to get a fifth is going to be extraordinarily high.

And Chet is the best defensive player on the best defensive team, right? And so, like, that's a pretty easy argument to make. So he, you know, I think that you could say, I think most impactful defensive player, just because Biggs are more impactful than perimeter defenders. Sure. If you want to say Cruz might just be their best pound for pound defender at this point. And I thought you were going to say Crusoe. They've got Casin Wallace and got Louvreys.

They've got all the friends defenders. Sorry. Yeah. Good point, Wendy. Yeah. But Casein Wallace is leading the league in steals. I mean, he's great. Kauai per game leads the league and steals.

Well, in casein Wallace plays more games. I'm not sure Kauai's eligible yet. Well, all right. All right, Coach of the Year. Now, J.B. Bickerstaff is the favorite, I believe. Deserved? For sure. And, you know, if they finish with the number one seed,

which I think they've got a six-game lead, is going to be very compelling. Yeah. I mean, this is a two-horse race. It's him and Joe Missou. That's what I would say. Yeah. You know.

Those are the two I would pick. I'll tell you what, though, man. J.B is minus 165 on draft kings, according to Jackson. I do think we should at least mention two guys from the West, and they're both kind of sort, I think, technically, rookie head coaches. But Mitch Johnson has to get some credit for what this birds are doing. Absolutely. You know, for the –

George has on a phenomenal job. I assume is the other one you're going to say. And you know what, three guys then. David Adelman's the other one, as much as – Oh, sure. We all thought the Nuggets were going to maybe be – scuffing around and close to playing territory when Joker was going to be out

for a month and all the other injuries that they've had. So I do think we should at least give honorable mentions and Jordan not's a good call. You love giving honorable mentions. Can I give one more honorable mention? There's always a lot of names for coach of the year, but yeah, what do you got? How about the Buzz City

Killers Gaffer? Hey, if they keep on Zoom up. Coach in English soccer. Charles Lee has done a great job, obviously, getting those guys I just, I mean, I just wanted to say... Yeah, he just wanted to stay... Especially if they end up over 500 after the start they had. But, yeah, I think it's...

Bigger Staff in Missoula or 1-2 is probably going to come down to those guys. And Jordan... And Jordan ought probably would be the other guy in the ballot. I mean, the fact that Charlotte... The fact that Phoenix is a game and a half out of the top six in the West is pretty crazy. And, you know, he's done a really, really great job. But you look at the top two teams in the east being where they are. Detroit, obviously, making the giant leap up.

And then Boston on their way to over 50 wins without Jason Tatum and after trading away all these guys. And like, you know, people thought they might be able to make the playoffs. Nobody thought they'd be top seven in offensive defense or top 10 in offense and defense and second in the east at this point in the season. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. Speaking of the Buzz City Killers, how about the rookie TV? nickname. I know. I'm being into, I'm having fun with it. A rookie of the year. I mean, it's a two

horse race and the horse around my parts has got a significant edge. He was, but he has, before this injury, he has been killing it on offense. He's killed it on defense from day one, but my God, has he been flexing his offensive muscle? And he's averaging, you know, 20 and change at this point. Again, I just go back to this stat. When guys are rookies and they're averaging 20 plus points, six plus rebounds, four plus assists per game,

Cooper flags on pace to be the fourth one of those dudes since the ABA NBA NBA merger. The fourth. Yeah, let's see. It's Larry. It's Michael Jordan and, oh my goodness, I can't believe I'm blanking on the other one.

But it's a one-nameer for sure. Oh, I can't blank on that. Well, why you're looking up your name. This is what happens when I get fresh off an airplane. I would vote for Cooper Flag, and I think Cooper Flag should win a rookie the year. However, I think Connupple, his college roommate, playing for Charlotte, might win the award,

and especially if Charlotte continues to play like this and makes the playoffs, you might think he has a significant edge, but I don't think he's going to have significant edge in the voting because he's having probably the best shooting, season of any rookie ever. Shoot 42% from 3 on 8 attempts a game, which is crazy. And he's scoring almost 19 points a game on a team that might make the playoffs.

I'll say, like, Kineppel isn't just a shooter or score. Like, he rebounds. He's a much better playmaker than you would think. He's really good. He's a really, really good player. And defensively, you know, he's, I got challenges, but he's kind of a hybrid of Clay and stuff. He's a little smaller than Clay, a little bigger than Steph. I would say he's, I would say he's Devin Booker.

What I would say. By the way, the odds are minus 650 for Flag, plus 360 for Khan. I think the voting's getting up pretty close to that. But like Conquinepple would be the rookie of the year and the majority of the years. I think you can certainly say that. So, you know, I think I would vote for Cooper, but I wonder if Charlotte keeps going, this, I could see that race getting a lot tighter. So I've compared not just me, but many people have, but I've compared LeBron to Cooper,

Cooper to LeBron a lot. Yeah. When LeBron was a rookie, okay, they both shot our shooting the ball. Cooper's not shooting three as well, and LeBron didn't shoot three as well. But when LeBron was a rookie, because the thing was, you know, people thought the Cooper's offensive game may not be as elite. When the brawlm was a rookie, he shot 44% on twos. Yeah.

The flag is shooting 53% on twos. And the three-point shot has gone from all to, you know, it's for the season, 30.2, but it's, that's up significantly. Let's take a look and see that. By the way, you'll crack up. Remember I said four rookies since the merger, Larry, Michael Jordan, Cooper flag, and I forgot one in between. Who could it have been? Who could it have been? Luka Donchich.

The only other teenager. If only you did some homework on Luca. Yeah, 20 points, six rebounds of four assists per game. Pretty good player. And I thought, where's he now? We didn't bring him up in the 5% club conversation. I figured, let's take a look at one thing we're looking at. It's not really the second half.

There's like 28 games left for most teams, like the last third. But out of the break, Bontem. So what's one thing you're looking forward to? I am just really interested. to see how this Eastern Conference race shakes out across the board. The Cavs have an incredibly easy schedule down the stretch. I don't think it's out of the role... 13 games against quote-unquote tankers.

That's the most in the league. Yes. I don't think it's out of the role of possibility. They get up to maybe first, but at least... Really? I don't think that's happening. Well, they could rack up an absolute ton of wins, is my point. Late. Like, they could win. Like, look, if you told me they went,

21 and 6 in these final 27 games, I wouldn't be stunned. That would get him up to 55 wins. That would at least give him a chance of getting up to first. So, you know, I think there's a very good chance they get to second at least, which would be very significant going forward. Will Jason Tatum come back? What will he look like?

Like that whole situation in Boston. He gets one thing. He's not gone to two. Well, no, but it's the whole Easter conference race. Wow. I mean, all these teams are, you know, they're all pretty evenly bunched together, and there's just a lot of different things to watch across the conference. And, you know, it's going to be a very fun.

I mean, you got second to six that's separated by five games, and there's going to be a lot of jockeying, and it's going to be really interesting to see how it shakes out. McMahon. The most fascinating team in the league to me features the most fascinating player in the league, and that's the San Antonio Spurs with Victor Wimonyama. And that's no disrespect to the Thunder,

but we've seen the Thunder win a championship. We know they can. We've seen Nicole Yokich and the Nuggets win a championship. We know they can. I firmly believe that these spurs can. I don't necessarily know that it's this year. I would wager against it.

But I love the way that Wimby goes about his business. I love how much swagger he plays. plays with and just how much he wants all the smoke. And I'm excited to see how things unfold for the rest of the season and certainly wants the playoffs start for the Spurs. All right. I could make a joke about Charlotte here, but I won't. I think two things, one off court, one on court. Off court, are we going to get some sort of ruling or a decision or something in the Clippers aspiration case. That's been quiet and has been going on for months on end now. And so I think

that could end up being... And we're past the All-Star game. Yeah. I think that could be a major storyline in the second half depending on what happens. There will certainly be a lot of reaction, whether it's a penalty or whether it's non-penalty or a very light penalty. There'll certainly be a lot of reaction. On the court, I mentioned earlier that a team that is sort of secretly hiding as an elite team, but not always playing as an elite team, is Minnesota. You saw what Ant did in the All-Star game. The guy is, you know, incredible. Minnesota has had some baffling performances this year. They have looked tremendous at times. They have looked ridiculous at times.

and they were a team that last year, right about this time, were in about the same spot, and then they hit the turbo down the stretch of the season, ended up in the conference finals. So, of course, you could mention all the teams we already did, but Minnesota is a team, you know, that... Did we see the Hot Mike controversy at the All-Star game with Ant, and Jalen Johnson, by the way, also over the weekend?

There was a number of controversies at the All-Star game. But no, I did not see it. The fact that, you know, well, who knows what was real about it or not, but there was talk that Aunt and Jalen were caught on the court with Aunt saying, I can't wait to go home, which, you know, he's from Atlanta, obviously. And while I'll just set that to the side, the upcoming months in Minnesota, I think. Could he have met on Sunday night? It could have.

But the whole months in Minnesota, I think are going to be interesting on a lot of levels after they did cut money to, you know, did cut a bunch of money. And we'll see if they add some guy in the buyout market, you know, okay, then perhaps we'll look, their plans will look different. But for now, it looks like they just saved a lot of money

at the All-Star, at the trade deadline. They did trade for I.O. I mean, they did attempt to upgrade. But they could have got 14-second-round- players. And, you know, instead they got one. So, you know, let's see, what the rest of their season looks like from a win-loss perspective,

but certainly, aunt is never boring, and Sunday night was proof of that. And the simple fact of the matter is, our pals, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Lurie that were part of our live. Friends of the pod.

Part of our lives show in Las Vegas. Hate to call them out for buying an NBA franchise on Layaway, but they did. It's got a great deal, man. And they got it to the finish line, but here's the thing. Can they, truly afford to fund an MBA contender?

You know, and that's, that's an issue that goes far beyond just the payroll. The payroll's the primary. That's where the focus is going to be. And if the answer is no, then what are the ramifications of that? And one thing sort of related to that off the court-wise to watch going forward is, I know Adam Silver talked about it a little bit. over the weekend with regards to expansion. I don't know when we're going to find out about expansion,

but I feel very confident that we're going to get expansion news in the affirmative this year and that at some point in the next point. Wonder where that could end up. Well, yes, that will end up in two more Western Conference cities. But I think... G. Wiz is filing a lawsuit. Yes, he is. The wizard's mascot.

By the way. But that's going to be happening, and I feel pretty close. confident about to. And if expansion happens, you know, there's going to be a lot of lobbying to be one of the teams that head east. That's right.

Minnesota Timbles will be will be one of the primary teams that are allowed. What is, it's Minnesota, Memphis. Minnesota Memphis and New Orleans are the three you look at. To go home to the east where he's from. Could be. Could be. Well, apparently

he said, you know, you all got so many wings, which, you know, they could mean the position of the basketball floor or there are places in Atlanta that are well known for their quality chicken wings. Right. That man might enjoy places. We'll check on that. I'm sure that our fine beatwriters in Minnesota will follow up on that. Friday is one of our holidays, McMahon.

Oh, great. It's the second Pontemps poll, the scheduled to come out on Friday. Ah, the number two BS poll. This one is going to be potentially quite interesting to see what the MVP voters are thinking with a bunch of guys dealing with injuries, a bunch of guys ineligible. Like, Yokic is still eligible. Yokic is the guy that I voted for last time, but he's been injured, missed a bunch of games. He came back with time to spare for a reason. I know, but he hasn't quite been the same since he came back.

He's been good, very good, but he's, you know, he's definitely still not himself. And so I haven't, you know, Bontentz has to me for my vote today. I haven't given it to him yet. And Shea is no longer on a 70-win pace nor is 70-win's even a possibility for the Thunder any longer. Bont-Tem, this is going to be an interesting one. This is going to be interesting. I mean, you've got Yokic on the verge of not being eligible. You already have Yonis-not-eligible.

You have Victor Miamma on the verge of not being eligible. eligible. You have Luca Dantra, it's getting close, I'm not being eligible. By the way, you mentioned Shea. We really have no idea how long Shay is going to be out with his current injury that he's got. He could be back this week. He could be back in weeks. Like, we really don't know. We were just told, I believe the update McMahon was, will be told after the All-Star break, what his status is, right? So. Yeah, the updates that we'll get an update. Yeah, he'll be re-evaluated. They didn't say we get an update. Right. So, you know, I mean, it's, it is, it is as, it is as,

up in the air as a race as we've had because of large part, in large part, because of this rule. By the way, when you've got a $300 million MVP, he's evaluated every day, just for the record. But, all right. We'll see what happens on Friday. All right. I'm looking forward to that, as always.

All right, thank you to Jackson and the rest of our producers. Thank you to McMahon and Bontems for doing this on Monday night. Hopefully we don't have to emergency pot on Tuesday. And thank you for watching and listening to Hoop Collection. talk to you later this week. Adios amigos.