BTC Sessions - $2.8T Housing BUBBLE BURST? HUGE Bitcoin Inflows | Joe Carlasare, Dave Bradley, Nolan Bauerle

Episode Date: June 25, 2025

Is the $2.8 trillion housing bubble about to burst? Experts Joe Carlasare, Dave Bradley, and Nolan reveal how a real estate meltdown could trigger massive inflows into Bitcoin—and why smart money is already moving.FOLLOW TODAY’S PANELISTS:https://x.com/JoeCarlasarehttps://x.com/BitcoinBrainshttps://x.com/countbtcFOLLOW BTC SESSIONS on X/Nostr: x.com/[e-mail] private one-on-one sessions with BITCOIN MENTOR! Learn self custody, hardware, multisig, lightning, privacy, running a node, and plenty more - all from a team of top notch educators that I've personally vetted.https://bitcoinmentor.io/—------------------------------SHOW SPONSORS:BITCOIN WELL - BUY BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6COINKITE/COLDCARD (5% discount):https://qrco.de/bfiDBVAQUA WALLEThttps://qrco.de/bfiD8gNUNCHUK HONEYBADGER INHERITANCEhttps://qrco.de/bfiDARHODLHODL NO KYC P2P EXCHANGEhttps://hodlhodl.com/join/BTCSESSIONDEBIFI LOANShttps://qrco.de/bfiDCpCRYPTOCLOAKShttps://qrco.de/bg5Dvo#btc #bitcoin #crypto

In New York, a self-declared socialist is poised to take the mayor's seat promising free everything except economic reality. And just wait until you see the clip that we've got teed up. It's a wild breakdown of some of his more unhinged proposals coming up in just a minute. You're not going to want to miss it. As James Lavish just warned on Twitter, if you own property in New York City, you may want to sell it and buy Bitcoin instead. Now, this is just yet another example of the bigger picture when it comes to real estate as a whole. It's taxed, it's illiquid, and it is deeply vulnerable to political decisions that you can't control. Bitcoin is the opposite, borderless, permissionless, liquid, and largely immune to government overreach, if you're using it right.

And now, even major institutions are starting to take a bit of a pivot. A key government agency just issued an unprecedented order pertaining to Bitcoin and mortgages, and a massive real estate empire just added thousands of Bitcoin to its balance sheet, with plans to go even bigger, tripling down. We'll touch on both of these after the jump. As it stands, real estate has ballooned into a $650 trillion market, but largely, of course, because of broken money and decades of cheap credit and people needing to part the fruits of their labor somewhere.

It doesn't have to be this way. Bitcoin is emerging as an escape valve, and it might make sense to get some just in case it catches on. Today we've got an incredible panel of guests to discuss this and much more. Joe Carlos Saray, attorney commercial litigator, and everyone's favorite contrarian in Bitcoin Twitter spaces, Dave Bradley, creator of the upcoming Bitcoin Rodeo and notoriously long on rope futures.

And Nolan Baller, wow, I butcher that one. Nolan Bowerley, sorry, man, host of the Great Awakening on Roxham TV. Stick around, you're not going to want to miss a moment. I am Ben with the BTC Sessions. This is your bullish session. All right, I want to welcome to the stage, Nolan, Joe, and Dave. Gentlemen, thank you for being here. Glad to have you.

And before I get you guys weighing in on what I was discussing before, I do want to show this clip of the New York City, soon to be New York City mayor. And he was talking about some of his proposals, what he might like to do. So let's just take a quick listen in to what he had to say. Side note, this was shared by Tuttle Twins. Great show.

They said they're working on an episode about how terrible price controls are, especially for the poor, and they're very excited to break it down for him. So let's take a listen to what he had to say. Grocery prices are out of control. The cost of eggs and milk has skyrocketed. Some stores are even using dynamic pricing, jacking up the cost over the course of a day depending on what they can get away with. It doesn't need to be this way.

I'm Zahran Mandani, and as mayor, I will create a network of city-owned grocery stores. It's like a public option. For produce, we will redirect city funds from corporate supermarkets to city-owned grocery stores, whose mission is lower prices, not price gouging. These stores will operate without a profit motive or having to pay property taxes or rent and will pass on those savings to you. So super interesting.

Now, I know what you guys are thinking, how could this possibly be successful? But, you know, it's important to know that there were previously very, very successful government food programs so successful, in fact, that, you know, the demand was on. unheard of. It was, it was while everybody wanted to be a part of these programs. So just keep that in mind. Lineups around the block. Yeah, the lineups were crazy. It was the hottest thing.

But of course, James Lavish shaming in, good morning. If you own property in New York City, you may want to sell him buy Bitcoin instead. He also had a nice little retweet here, how do I shortest city buy Bitcoin. Now, in terms of the other things I was talking about, There's, of course, people in and around the real estate market are starting to look at Bitcoin as well, sometimes as a compliment to their existing real estate, sometimes as just an opt-out. So one of the recent ones, of course, Grant Cardone, adding a thousand Bitcoin to their balance fee, and they plan to triple down to around 3,000. In regards to Bitcoin as collateral, when it comes to mortgages, we have the U.S. Federal Housing Agency, namely the U.S. director of federal housing. And he tweeted out, after his significant studying and in keeping with President Trump's vision

to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, today I ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses. is to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage. So some interesting stuff coming out of there, but I want to give you guys a chance to chime in in regards to any or all of this, perhaps about the mayor, perhaps about real estate in general. But Nolan, I know you're chomping at the bit

just before the break. So what are your thoughts on New York? Do you think that food program will be as successful as the images were. It's perfect. It's like Mark Carney in Canada. Having these people up there, creating that contrast, forces people into these conversations that maybe they wouldn't have had otherwise.

You know, when, for example, we saw Trump and Elon fighting about the big, bad budget bill, that what big, beautiful budget or whatever they call it, what conversation did you end up having amongst all of these MAGA people? Suddenly, it was end the Fed. suddenly it was audit the Fed. Suddenly it was how much is too much when it comes to debt. So forcing conversations right now and having those things play out and open is a big advantage for Bitcoins because we're there in the middle of all of these kind of debates.

We're there in the middle of all of these fault lines. And seeing the fault line switch what we're seeing in New York City, seeing the political reality shift in America is a great thing. We saw this isn't really Democrat. Republican anymore. That's kind of going out the door. Maga and Trump's win in 2024 started suggesting that was coming, right? Started suggesting that there's a recalibration from red and blue to something more like green and orange, sort of a real, a better way of viewing politics. So at this point, there isn't any use even debating a lot of Democrats anymore. It's just mental

illness. There's no points there. There's not like I have a point and you have a point and we're going to argue it's just mental illness. But what you do see inside of the Republican Party with the Overton window shifting Bitcoin being involved in everything is actual real debate again. And the thing that I like most about all of this, the things in Israel, Iran war, all of that stuff is that we're actually seeing something replacing the World War II consensus of you've got to see the world in terms of communist and capitalist and you've got to see the world in terms of good and bad. And all of that stuff. that required all of the propaganda to push Fiat forward is sort of slipping.

It doesn't work anymore. None of it's working. The contrast, though, Nakamoto consensus, something that can really take the place of the World War II consensus, which required you, everyone, to see the world the same way. There is no room for dissent when we'll look at the world that way. But Bitcoiners know that we can get along. I was a 2015 long MAGA total into Trump the minute I saw him, but I was already a Bitcoiner. I was not shunned by Bitconors, and I lived in New York City.

I was in New York City, 2015, Bitcoin mega freakhead. And no one in Bitcoin ever had a problem with that. It was not like anyone in Bitcoin was like, oh, you're a Trump lover. No, no one cared. And so Nakamoto Consensus is something where the fault tolerance that we have, you go right back to the engineering systems, the fault tolerance that Bitcoiners have. As long as you're into Bitcoin,

we can accept almost any other opinions someone's had and still stay friends with it. Like it was when we were kids in the 90s or teenagers or whatever, We have a lot greater appetite for this difference and this disagreement. And the good thing is, in New York, Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor, the launcher of the Bitbond, fits into that mold perfectly. He's a former Democrat. Let's not forget. He is running against Hamdani. He's going to win.

The Democrats, he got just white liberals who went to college, the most brain dead, stupid people in the world. How do you really feel, though? Mental illness just pouring out of their mouth. all the time and what are we going to get we're going to get we saw the breakdown of the votes right the african americans who live in uh new york voted for quomo i think they're going to turn and vote for eric adams now i think they're going to vote for whatever ticket he's on he was someone that took a lot of shit from the democrats during the 2024 thing because he said you know this and that they said he was a criminal i mean what mayor in any that's all totally corrupt in

every part of the world these municipal governments nobody gives a shit so the organized crime is there so Who cares about his criminality? He went out on a limb. He spoke up for New Yorkers while he was mayor. He launched the Bitcoin 2020. I think that's one of the biggest parts of the separation of money in state will be through the BitBond. It's the most interesting thing right now in Bitcoin,

as far as I can see, it's where all this treasury stuff, all this strategy stuff is headed. So, yeah, I think New York is about to have really great conversations, really great debates, and we're seeing Nakamoto Consensus, the ability of a coalition to, form where we disagree on almost everything and it doesn't matter.

We can still play on the same team. Bitcoin has shown that through its history. We can disagree on everything. Stay on the same team, be Bitcoiners. That's taking over from this fake blue, red. It's turning green and orange and we love it. We love it. There is no red.

There is no blue. There is the state and there is you. You got it. Joe, I'm sure you have some thoughts here. I want to toss it over to you as well. Yeah. No, I mean, so if you look at, What I think the trend of overall American politics has been for the last over 10 years, well over 10 years since really the Bernie Sanders campaign.

It's been a rejection of establishment politicians on both sides. And that goes back to the orange and different colors, whatever. I forgot what the other one was besides orange that you said. But it's rejecting what has not worked for decades in favor of something different. It doesn't matter even if it's a terrible idea like these grocery co-ops and things that he's putting forward. it doesn't matter, you know, we just want to try something new. We're desperate for some other voice to come into the mix. And if it's snake oil, we'll buy the snake oil, right?

Because we've been shafted by the establishment candidates time and time again. And really, you know, when you run that clip, Ben, when you look at the fact that he's talking about kitchen table issues, he's talking about groceries, he's talking about eggs, he's talking about fuel costs and basic necessities, right? We all understand that intuitively as Bitcoiners, because we talk all the time about inflation. We talk about bad monetary policy. We talk about the fact that this just erodes the quality of life for millions of people across our whole country and across other countries and across the planet. And for me, like the thing that's most interesting about this is that when you have a clear choice to make, it's far easier for the people not to get lost in the minutiaia.

They get it, this goes back to the choice about Adams versus the new candidate who just got nominated, the Democratic primary. I hope you're right. You know, to me, it seems. like with overwhelming blue skew of New York is going to be very difficult to overcome. I think I saw polymarket odds that say that Zorin is like 75% favorite to win after seizing Democratic nomination. We'll see. But to me, like I'd rather have a clear divide between a commanding control type choice of a candidate and a candidate that's more free market,

more market-based competitive solution-oriented because I think that's easier for the voter to sift out and decide. The problem we've had in many elections as you go in there and team red and team blue kind of look alike. They don't really seem that different. And that's problematic for a voter because they're sort of put in this position like, what does it matter? Why do I even care who I go in and punch a ballot for? They're basically two sides at the same coin. So the more clear of the division to me, the better. I think that presents a better choice for voters. And ultimately, I think the solutions themselves, they have been rejected by history when you try to engage in command and control type policies, and they will

continue to be rejected on a going forward basis. Very, again, very forth-turning vibes in a lot of global events as of late. And one of the things in the fourth turning happens to be just a dissolution in trust in our institutions and a need to replace them with new institutions. And it does say in the book that, you know, as you're going through the fourth turning, it doesn't necessarily have to be a good outcome on the other side of fourth turning. It just has to be starkly different from what came before it. It's a replacement.

So hopefully we get something good in the, I don't know, where it places us somewhere in the midst of the fourth turning here. But in the next five years, it'd be nice to see things turn around be a little bit better. But Dave, I want to toss it to you and get your thoughts on kind of everything at hand here. Yeah. So I think like what you said, it's, I think the main positive that comes out of something like this is we're essentially entering something similar to what we have in Canada where we're just accelerating the downfall of these horrible systems. Right. Like, the problem that we're all facing is the ever-expanding, ever-growing reach and consumption of resources by the state. And this is just putting that into hyperdrive, really, right?

Like, you start to get the state messing directly in really important markets like food, and the outcome is pretty straightforward. We know exactly how that's going to go. And, you know, the policies like this will probably lead to the dissolution of the, you know, United States of America in a relatively short amount of time. I love the optimism there. I love the optimism. That's really good. I mean, Joe, you're welcome to seek refuge in the Republic of Alberta here. We're well on our way. I might have to, I guess. Awesome. Well, jents, I don't want to spend too much time on this initial topic here. Of course, I want to get to the mean of the show, which is why you guys are all so bullish, whatever is top of mind,

most exciting to you currently in the Bitcoin space. And so Nolan, I'm going to have you start us off this evening with your reason for being bullish. So same question that everybody will get tonight. Why are you bullish? Well, I'd go with, there's so much right now. So it's difficult to say which case. We're seeing all these predicates for the separation of money and state.

But I'm just going to go with the one you mentioned earlier because it's on my mind this week. Last week it probably would have been the big beautiful bill or whatever because I like accelerationism. I want that prints. We all love the M2 graph, right? We can't wait to see the M2 pump a little. We want to see the print. Let's go, Powell.

So I would put on that, and I guess I can link them in a way because we had Poo-Well who was on both the congressional side yesterday and the Senate today and Poo-Well was up there all talking about real estate. Because indeed, it is a battle for hearts and minds, like Joe was saying, right? It is ultimately, and like you were saying about how you come out on the other end of the fourth turning, it really is now a race of systems to see which system can provide the best eggs, the best food, the best quality of life, wealth. It really comes down to money.

And Bitcoin is standing at this precipice when we hear about this big print and we hear about the money coming. And you had the Federal Reserve there. And like we've been seeing from the very beginning, my prediction at the start of this administration, I did the Bitcoin magazine broadcast on inauguration day at PubKee. I made the prediction right there that what we were going to see was the subordination of the Federal Reserve to the Treasury, that we were going back to the Constitutional Republic and that the Treasury was going to be the engine that determines how interest rates are set. Until now, interest rates were set by the overnight lending between the commercial banks and the Federal Reserve.

That is what allowed the whole engine to spin. That was the little fire in the middle of the fiat system that had to perpetuate board. Now, that was my prediction. It was all about subordination of the Federal Reserve and that we would see the most amazing thing as Bitcoiners watching the Federal Reserve lose its place. We saw it already at the beginning

when Trump convened the Crypto Council, who was not invited was the most important story for me. There was no Federal Reserve there. You had Bessent. You had Kelly Leffler, the small business founder, who started back. He was a Bitcoin entrepreneur, incredible person. You had the whole Bitcoin scene there, a lot of interesting people.

Of course, Tethers first trip, Paolo's first trip to America, now not being arrested because he's the biggest buyer of T-bills in the world, basically. So they love him. So seeing all that, and then, of course, I saw Arthur Hayes did a better job than me. I said subordination, which was like a four-syllable Latin word, very terrible. We had Arthur Hayes put it in much more eloquent terms when he talked about the big Besson cock and how we were going to see George, Jerome Poole in the Cuck chair and the Cuck chair was where he was headed. And so I'm glad that the best writer in Bitcoin had more or less the same take. I used boring language.

Cuck chair and the Big Besson Cuck is the way to see it. And so to see the Cuck chair this week in Powell there because he's going to, I mean, that's why he's the stupidest person in the world. What was he called today? The dumbest person alive or something. Everyone's taking shots at him. Bill Pulte's taking shots in the way in him. And that's what he was doing.

He spent his time in those two congressional hearings yesterday and today. that's what made me bullish trying to defend the wealth creation out of the Federal Reserve. He sounded pathetic. He sounded like such a cuck chair sitter. And you listen to him, say all this stuff. And he's talking about real estate, talking about real estate. Because, of course, like you're saying, that is what Mamdani did well. Talked about eggs.

Talked about the cost of living. Talked about that stuff. But this is the world we live in, right? This is our goal to try and make an asset that's better. So when I see everything in New York, I see the real estate argument. I see all this stuff with Pulte and he's been a bit corner for a while. talking about using Bitcoin to buy real estate, but we want something more than that. We want real estate to lose its place, literally lose its place to Bitcoin as the most

obvious, lowest IQ way to save your money, and that's the trajectory we're on. It's become too complicated to buy homes in the United States. It doesn't matter if you can use collateral. It's just a complicated business. And so when you see Powell trying to defend himself like that and you see the real estate thing, you see this in this this you know potential big migration out of new york you saw yesterday the same day that happens you had that the governor desantis say we're going to get rid of property tax you know how many new yorkers were checking zillo yesterday down at palm beach um and everyone in york

everyone in florida saying don't come nick carter is saying no no please don't um so in the end inevitably i think you're going to have this real fight between bitcoin and real estate in the short term you're going to see Bitcoin shine through. You're going to see the problems of real estate. Because what does Michael Saylor use as an analogy to tell you how Bitcoin's worth something? He calls it Manhattan real estate. So us against Manhattan real estate as Bitcoiners, it's a perfect fight. How can you not be bullish?

We're at the final boss. This is perfect. I love her. Nolan, it's always fun to pinpoint the exact moment in any video where it gets demonetized. Maybe Besson cock. I can go back with subordination. I'm no stranger to it, so it's all right. I can use the Latin five-syllable word.

We're okay. No, you say whatever the fucking... Arthur Hayes said it first, man. All good, all good. Now, Dave, I want to go to you because you've been bothering me to sell my house and buy Bitcoin. And I know very explicitly, even where you live, they've been actively trying to get you to buy it.

and you've been actively low-bowling them by like fractions of what they've asked you to purchase it for. So I'm sure you have some thoughts here. Yeah, with this condo that I live in, I don't, I rent because, you know, I have an understanding of the real estate market. And they were trying to sell it a couple years ago. And they asked me to make an offer. And the offer that I made was, it was about 20% of what. it ended up selling for. And that was, it was my own sort of, uh, just finger in the air guess about what the utility value of this place was. And they were not happy with the offer,

certainly. So, um, but yeah, that said, um, it's interesting to think this transition of power, um, from the Fed. One thing that I've heard suggested a few different places is that the Fed might actually be moving back to the original model where, the you know the the individual branches of the Fed actually had power to set their own internal interest rates and so you could essentially it goes back to that question of like how do I short a city you know you'd short the bonds of the the New York Fed right and that I think would be a mechanism to price capital flows as as capital moves around the country and and things like an insane mayor in New York could lead to the cost of borrowing for the state of New York going up. And that would make a lot of sense. That'd be a pretty rational path, I think. But I think ultimately, however it shakes out,

we may still be in a world where the Fed maintains its importance, but I think what is inevitably going to come out of this whole treasury company madness is that the world is really just starting to see Bitcoin as collateral. on, right? And the world has operated on the assumption that these US T bills were the sort of like zero risk alternatives, you know, the baseline for your risk-adjusted return. And now I think that assumption that the T-bills are zero risk is now just starting to be challenged. You know, there's talk that maybe Trump won't honor the T-bills for certain countries or maybe certain countries will have different rates than others or maybe certain countries won't have the option of whether or not to buy the T-bills. And all of those things really change the nature of how they can, they can operate as that sort of like baseline of collateral. And, you know, the private sector is just now figuring out that Bitcoin is the best collateral out there.

And it's just a matter of time. I think we're already seeing central banks around the world really stocking up on gold in the last couple of years. and I think it's just inevitable that they're going to start to see Bitcoin that way as well. And so we may end up in a world where the Fed is still a very powerful entity, but it may be very powerful because it's very heavily capitalized by a large Bitcoin reserve. Interesting. Joe, I see you have. Well, no, I just, listen, if you're really hankering to short New York municipal bonds, go get a dealer to short them right now.

You don't need to have a local Fed reserve to, uh, to, uh, to, have jurisdiction over them or have independence from the, the national. Just go short the New York community bonds. Maybe it'll be a great trade. I don't know. But so I mean, like this is a fascinating discussion, right? Because, you know, if you look at like some of the stuff that Lynn Alden's put out and look at real estate as a whole, I think a lot of folks for whatever reason, they expect

real estate prices to crash, which they may. Okay. They absolutely can. But there's another reality where like they flatline and they barely keep up with the rate of inflation for the next. 10 years when in real terms, you're significantly losing your value. In fact, there have been periods in United States and even in Canadian history where real estate underperforms significantly the rate of inflation, despite its purported stability. I mean, one of the reasons my investors love real estate

is because it's supposed to always go up, right? It's supposed to always give you this return. It's supposed to have this implicit pricing power. Well, if you go back to the people that are stretched, that can't pay for their groceries and are buying these narratives about how we're going to have government-owned grocery stores. That is telling, selling you people are probably at a limit not able to absorb a lot of increases in the rent side and other markets. So if that is the case, right, you landlord, you property owner will be a consistent bagholder having to cut your actual lease terms or cut your, you know, profit on those buildings because they just don't make sense from an economic perspective. I mean, there's tons of buildings in New York that were built

for a completely different era to actually maintain them. Ben, like, it doesn't make sense because they're not, they don't have enough multi-dwelling. They literally, like, it doesn't make sense a higher property manager because the margins are too thin. They're very small pieces of property. Honestly, like most of that stuff should be torn down. They should be rebuilding if we had a dynamic economy that embraced free market solutions. Instead, we're clinging to rent control as opposed to modernize, it for, you know, the 21st century. So very unfortunate, but I really hope we don't dissolve as the United States. I got really scared when I was told that. I really hope it doesn't happen. Please keep your fingers crossed. I'm, I'm certain that, you know, either way, you'll, you'll,

you'll have a place to. I don't know. I might, I'm a lawyer, so I might be lynched. Who knows? It's always possible. Are you a socialist lawyer? No, I'm not, but, you know, like Shakespeare said, You know, first we have to get all the lawyers, right? I'm a reformed lawyer, Joe. There you go. Okay. Well, you were smarter. Well, jents, I'm going to put a little bow on this topic,

and I do want to get to our next reason for being bullish in just a moment. Unless anybody has any other quick thoughts that they want to throw in. I just want to point out because I do, I do, you know, because I do a daily show on Roxham TV, and we're looking at content every day. So how do you do a Bitcoin daily show? will I learn from my days at Coin Desk in the early days in Bitcoin magazine? You can't wait for Bitcoin news. Sometimes you have to talk about the other side of the trade why people are selling dollars.

Because that news keeps coming, right? And so what I saw today was I wanted to mention what Dave meant had just said. This just popped up on my radar. The fake news actually started admitting that all these central banks are rebalancing into all these different gold and all that kind of stuff. But it's like Bitcoiners have known this for a long time. It's so funny in telling that it's in the news now. Why is it in the news?

I don't know, but they're talking about it this week. And that's something's up, something's up, but they're admitting the truth about this subject. They're even admitting that Bitcoin's part of the conversation. So just a little aside, I wanted to throw that in there, noticing why people are selling dollars, and then the fake news admitting that they're selling dollars is something to track and keep, you know,

that's another reason to be bullish, I think. I'm sure everybody watching right now is very short dollars. Panel at hand included. Yes. Jens, we're going to do another reason for being bullish. Just on the other side of the jump, we're going to give a quick sponsor shout out here. But before that, everybody in the chat, thank you guys for being here. If you're enjoying the chat so far, please do give that like button to smash.

And I'm going to probably mention it a couple. couple times throughout the show. But if you are in the Calgary area that's coming week, we've got a few things going on. We've got the sat market. We've got, of course, the Bitcoin Rodeo and Bitcoin Mentor is hosting a workshop in the mountains. We'll be dropping some info about that later on. But for now, sponsor shoutout. We'll be right back. Smash that like button. See you guys in a sec. Bitcoin Well is the best place to be buying and selling Bitcoin in Canada and the U.S. And now with Bitcoin Well Infinite, it's also the best place to be making large buys at their OTC desk of over $50,000.

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And the first person to scan it steals the stats from everyone else. You can do this by earning points, signing up, buying Bitcoin, referring friends, you're in points, and you can toss coins into the well. You have a chance to win up to a million stats every single time. I'll get rid of the other QR. Whoever scans that first with their lightning wallets will claim 640. Sats. If you sniped them, let us know in the chat. And with that, let's dive right back in. And Joe, I'm going to toss it to you. I'm going to tee up with the same question. Why are you bullish? I am incredibly bullish because, and again, this may be a point of debate, but I believe

firmly that a year from now, we will be sitting here with the Bitcoin price higher with the death, doing a show, perhaps, Ben, you'll have the show. The death of the four-year cycle. This predictable cycle, but Bitcoiners have this narrative embedded. And I hear it all the time on spaces. I hear it on Twitter. It is so frustrating to me because I think so many people are going to fumble the bag. So if you're listening to this, please do not let that be you. The people that think they can time it that suddenly in Q4 of this year, you know, Cinderella is going to turn into a pumpkin and the market's going to sell off 80 percent. And it will be as, predictable as the prior cycles. Now, this is not to say that we can't have really painful drawdowns.

We could have 20, 30, 40 percent drawdowns, but this, you know, tired narrative that is out there that you can easily time this thing. I think there's a ton of evidence that shows that that is completely fading and it's getting through fatigue, narrative fatigue, if you will. We are entering the era of institutional capital. We're entering the people that are willing to buy this to borrow, to scoop up whatever coins they can. And it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be market smash buying like retail does, but they're going to be sitting there with bids providing a floor. And I think you've seen this already over the last several months in Bitcoin's price action. I think you saw it last year. I even think if you went back to 2021, one of the reasons why that

quote unquote cycle ended in November of 2021 after the ETF's launch was simply because you had a macro catalyst. You had a macro event that took out most of the major risk asset complex, including the NASDAQ, the SAB 500. You had one of the fastest rate hiking cycles in history from the Federal Reserve trying to rapidly move back from their transitory narrative about inflation. So you had a macro catalyst that brought an end to that market. I think that would have looked very different had you not had a macro catalyst where most of the major equity complex sold off. I think that that and the bond market as well, one of the worst bond market, bear market, in history we saw in 2022. All of that is to say that I think this narrative about the

having is dying. I think we're going to be moving into a very different cycle. I was talking with my friend, Canadian Bitcoin and Brad Mills about this. He thinks we've entered the sailor cycle that is going to look very different. And when people, unfortunately, are anchored to this, this is how it goes. This is the way the Bitcoin has to trade. It has this programmable four-year cycle of boom and bust. I think they're going to be very disappointed. I think they were already sort of disappointed in many respects because people did not expect the all-time high before even the halving that we saw. So, you know, to me, I think that's great for the Bitcoin market. I think it is far more of a, you want to be in a market where you have confidence to hold long-term

and that all that's going to do is it's going to give confidence to regular people that they don't need to go through these very long, painful bear markets. You can have obviously drawdowns, but we know Bitcoin is going to be closer to how equities are performing, which is, you know, every 20% dip gets bought and then we're on up to new all-time highs. That's going to provide a massive catalyst and a massive confidence boost to participants in the Bitcoin market. So, yeah, that has me bullish. So I've got a question for you, Joe. Do you, would you say that the four-year cycle, you know, was kind of a baked in given thing

prior, but because of the reduction in, in. block reward. Walk reward. It's just diminished over time to the point where. Yeah, all of the above. So the halvings are being diminished, right? Because you're not introducing as many new coins, right? That's number one.

But you also had different players in the market. You also had a situation where you had a lot of retail, you know, that was able to front run Wall Street. Now you don't have as much. You still have a lot of retail, but you have more institutionals who are more long, long term thinkers, right? You also have sort of the efficient market thing. Like early on,

don't think even Bitcoin, people that were buying the asset, they didn't really fully understand the block reward and how this worked and the halving, in fact, and the impact that we have on miners. Now we're moving to a marketplace where macro events, I think, are going to be the primary driver, how Bitcoin moves. You know, macro liquidity events, you guys are talking about M2. Obviously, if there's a recession, I think that's going to impact Bitcoin's price action. I think you're kind of foolish. If you don't think that when people are struggling in a recession, they're going to have to be for sellers. That's true in every market. But to me, like this idea that you have, like, the having is causing both the boom and the bust.

I just think there's not enough data to support that anymore. I think it's going to continue to be muted. And, you know, to me, that's great. That's what you want. You don't want to have an asset where, you know, people, unfortunately, get shook out of the asset at the bottom. I mean, we all know people who had fumbled the bag at like, you know, 3,000 in 2018 or fumbled the bag at, you know,

17, 18, 19K in 2020. You know, people in my family that said this thing's never going up again. They threw in the towel despite our, best protest that that's not how Bitcoin works. So to me, like having more stability, you want to get to the mindset that people have with stocks where every dip is to be bought. If you do that, if you cross that chasm philosophically with people, I think the Bitcoin price action can rip and I think can go higher. Like I said, we'll see. Maybe Joe's going to look really silly in a year when this podcast is being replayed and Bitcoin's down like, you know, 75% from current levels

or something. I don't know. Yeah. Back into full on bare mode and we've just had a spike to 800K and draw 100. Everything's horrible. It does seem like we've entered an era of not so much

the again, the having as much of effect, but more who gets it and how much capital do they have? And the other thing, sorry, Ben. One of the thing that people forget is when you have derivatives, that changes the game. as well. When you have a derivatives complex and hedging activity and we see, you know, if you

follow Bitcoin circles, they're all talking about, you know, options on different entities and options on Ibit and different things. Markets trade differently. They're not as volatile when you have institutions having more access to derivatives. They tamper down that downside volatility. The market makers hedge. So that's sort of a structural reason. You know, early on the Bitcoin, you know, history, we didn't have as many of those derivatives. You had to go offshore. There weren't bigger players in the space. That's a very different, more mature marketplace. I'm going to say, as much as I recognize that that would be healthier and better, I would very much miss those like God candle days, 10K and then nuking and watching every

idiot selling at the doldrums in the bottom. It will be a fond memory for me. And, you know, I will say it's also, maybe it's just the dopamine hits. Maybe I'm just straight up addicted to. I'm not sure here. But anyways, I'll toss it to the rest of the panel if you guys want to chime in. If you think, are we done with the four-year cycle and something else in the driver's seat now? Yeah, I've been thinking about this. And what I do see, you can chart some of the human capital in this.

And that sort of tells the story, right? The having made a lot of sense when the miners had no risk managers and they didn't even know what treasury management was. I remember they didn't even know what it was. These guys thought they operated like a gambling machine or something in the old days. They're like, oh, there's coins in it. Great. You know, sell them, sell them. So I remember the 2017 market and then 2018 thums and it hit them like a ton of bricks. They were unprepared to deal with the crunch that happened at Bitcoin.

That's the reason why Ghan and Bitmain created an OTC desk. right they went to switzerland and because everyone sort of realized so the miners went out and they hired some of the best risk managers in the world they professionalized that whole part of the trading desk and they started to understand how to hedge and use the derivatives use other things now what ends up happening is these guys go through one more bowl then a really bad bear i mean the last one was for me who's been in a few of these cycles it was the worst and we did think it would be different this time and then it was even worse than ever so but what we did see is these risk managers that are inside of the miners really sharpen their elbows and really become sort of world-class.

And now that the whole script has flipped and you start to see, I remember when the first announcement that Sailor made about he had some billion dollar, I don't know how it was 70 billion or 40 billion or something, I did the math and I said he's bought every Bitcoin that'll come in this whole halving cycle at 70 something thousand US trash tokens based on what he had, you know, announced as a or whatever instrument you have used to get that capital. And I said, well, I can't go below 70 because all the risk managers at the miners have seen that. And there's no way they're going to be selling underneath that price because the money is there.

So it looks like they created a really powerful layer of human capital. The ones that sucked like at BlockFi are all gone, right? And we all knew the whole market was resting on BlockFi's risk management in 2021. And it was no good. Well, not just BlockFi. I'm in Alameda, FTX, all these. Terrible, terrible, terrible. Are we beyond that, though?

Like, is, are we really? Well, hold on. So you can see, so no matter what, it's Bitcoin is still psychological, right? And that's why Trump's attack on Bitcoin in 2019, I always said was the actual most effective attack anyone's ever had on Bitcoin. He just wasn't a fan, you know, like, if you're not interested, if Bitcoin isn't, like, interesting, it's boring, that, that is kryptonite to us. We can't be boring.

We hate being boring. And we're always boring when the market goes down. No one, that's when you get, oh, that's still around. You know, oh, Bitcoin's still around. That's when you know you're at the bottom when no one cares. And we're going to go back to that at some point. There's going to be some other macro thing. I mean, we've got a lot of change going on, fourth turning stuff.

I don't know what it's going to be. Now, this doesn't mean it's going to be reflected in price. I think Joe's correct. I think you have enough interested parties. You have enough strong sales. You have got Trump. He's Max Kaiser's employee of the month. month selling Bitcoin on our behalf every day. You've got BlackRock making really strong announcements,

really, you know, they've put their human capital towards evangelizing Bitcoin. These are some of the, I mean, that's what these financial advisors are, is they're, they're educators. They're trying to make sure that the clients feel confident about these things. So we do have a lot more momentum, the professionalism behind all this stuff. The risk management is much stronger. There will be something that makes us not cool again. And then we're going to come back and be the answer to everyone's prayers again. So they'll always be this up and down psychological thing, right? So I do anticipate it's going to go back to your family and friends going, oh, what are you going to do next? And you're like, what are you talking about? But just to clarify, that,

you know, that's that's within any market. Anything goes in and out, things come in and out, right? The question is, is it like this four year, the four year having driven cycle? That's, that's the real issue. I mean, there's a seasonality. to it. I don't, again, humans, the asset psychological, we think our brains are completely trained on Hollywood movies. There's a beginning, middle, and an end, reality TV, the third act. You know, Trump comes back. The most entertaining outcome is the most likely Elon's razor, he calls it, right? And so there is, there is this aspect where you just can't sustain these levels of interest. And we're not even there yet. That's when people say, oh, you know, when

When are we in the bear market? I don't even think we've hit the bull market yet. I think things are just moving. Do you think there's seasonality in the S&P 500? Well, S&P 500. I mean, look, it's been like in a 10-year bull run, like basically. I mean, with a few interludes. Yeah, yeah, maybe.

Again, yeah, it could be. Again, I think we are going to get to a point when it's just money. We're on the Bitcoin standard. I see us working towards bimetalism now, the same system, which exists, before the Federal Reserve was created. We're going to go back to that before we get to a Bitcoin standard. And, you know, dollars are becoming food stamps and they're going to be policy. They're going to get what they asked for.

They wanted political money. They're going to get it in Memdani or whatever his grocery stores are. It's going to food stamps. The dollar is headed directly to food stamps. So that's not a good thing, right? That's a lot of pain. And so who knows if Bitcoin can shine through some of the misery that's there on the way I don't know. I mean, it can go either way.

I think it's still going to be, we're still on the right track. Again, the enthusiasm on Wall Street, I would say, is still seasonal, whether or not the S&P captures it. I don't know about that. But I've seen that on Wall Street. It's got the same ebbs and flows. It's just that's the way we operate and function. We're trained that way.

We go through our lives that way. We see the world in season. Bitcoin is sort of tied into that whole. So it's celestial. I mean, look at all this stuff with the, you know, you look at what happened with Luna and you look at what happened with SBCF. And then you look at the Josh Mandel predictions from last year. All of that stuff happened on lunar eclipses. So we've got some stuff going on that we don't understand.

And there's something inherently, like say seasonal. natural about Bitcoin. It's tied to the stars. T'was written in the stars, people say. And I'm not, I'm not willing to say that we're out of those woods yet. Things go up and things go down. Dave, I want to hear from you here. And I'm, one, do you think four-year cycle is still a thing? and two, you said a lot when you've come on this show that you tend to, when everybody's not bullish, is when you're bullish. And I'm curious where you stand. Yeah. Yeah.

So I think the four-year cycle is obviously dead. The change, the relative change in supply is much smaller than it used to be. Right. When you were moving from 50 to 25 coins as a block reward and the total number of coins out there was 10 million, that that change was really quite drastic. But the fact is that most of the coins have now been mined, most of the coins that could potentially be sold are coins that are already out in the market, not new coins that are being mined. Right. And so the, the flow of new coins actually makes a relatively small impact at this point in terms of the supply and demand picture. So I think that's definitely changing. But to me, the thing that I think is going to be interesting to see and might tell us where our cycles go, as Joe mentioned, Bitcoin has mostly been trading with these sort of macroeconomic factors. And really, in a lot of ways, Bitcoin for the last several years has kind of just like tracked global liquidity, right? As the markets needed cash, people sell their Bitcoin, institutions sell their Bitcoin. Bitcoin is uniquely liquid as compared to just about anything out there.

And it also doesn't have these built-in reasons to hold for a particular time versus another. If you're holding equities, maybe you want to hold them until the next earnings are released. Or if you're holding bonds, then you want to hold them to maturity. Whereas with Bitcoin selling it one time is just as liquid is selling it another time. so it can be a really convenient thing to sell. But really, it should be the opposite, right? Bitcoin, like, as we know, should be ahead to global instability, whereas really it's been going down in times of global instability for the last while.

And so I think we might be in the process of that changing as the markets are starting to really look at it as a form of collateral. and as it starts to creep into the recilateralization of all of these currencies around the world, the hope is that at some point Bitcoin becomes a risk-off asset. And that's what it logically should be, even though there are a lot of good reasons why people have traded as a risk on asset, right? And the fact is that the vast majority of Bitcoin holders at this point, especially as we see all these institutions pour in, are holding Bitcoin as a way to, basically, as part of a plan to sell for more dollars in the future. Right.

And I think we're, I actually am fairly bullish on the dollar as compared to most of the other fiat currencies in the world right now. I think Tether expanding through Latin America and Africa is going to really be pushing the dollar into a lot more hands around the world. And if we move in this direction of recapitalizing the dollar and, you know, shoring up the balance sheet that, you know, something like a real Bitcoin strategic reserve could do. The dollar, I think, is positioned to really push out a lot of these weaker currencies. And what that means for Bitcoin, hopefully, is that Bitcoin takes that spot as collateral rather than as just being this, you know, gambling toy that institutions use to hope for a big flip. And yeah, so I think that's kind of where I sit on that.

What's, you're saying, if this comes to fruition with against stable coins, USD, what's your ETA on the collapse of the Canadian moose shekel? What's, it's five o'clock here? So at any moment, honestly, like it's really, it really could come down at any point. And, you know, I think that the Canadian dollar's fate could really be tied to the Alberta independence movement. There's been some really interesting stuff proposed here. You know, if we do achieve independence and I do believe that we will, you know, we have a question there of like, what do we do with our money? What should we be using as money?

And, you know, the obvious choices would be to stay with the Canadian dollar, which I believe would be a catastrophically bad choice because we'd just, you know, we'd be outsource. sourcing our or sorry we'd be allowing Ottawa to continue outsourcing their inflation to Alberta. So not a very not a very healthy choice I don't think. And then option B would be to take the US dollar. And there's been some, you know, some some proposals that maybe Albertans get to trade in their dollars apart, which I think would be a really attractive thing for the individuals. And in the long term sort of puts us back in that same box where we're still, we're still on the receiving end of someone's outsourced inflation when the Fed prints we get the inflation and you know like countries like El Salvador where they've got the US dollar but they don't actually

you know receive the federal funding from the money that the United States government prints really the inflation is outsourced there with no real benefit and then obviously you know the other two options would be we either start our own dollar our own fiat currency or the right answer, which I find very unlikely that we're going to pick, would obviously be that Alberta adopt Bitcoin as its currency. And, you know, I think whatever, whatever country does that first is probably going to be permanently one of the richest in the world. So one of the reasons why I'm coming to Calgary this week is to meet with all you seditious Albertan separatists. And I love it. And so I'm all excited about it. And just so you know,

I was at a bar mitzpah last week in Toronto and just you know a lot of boomers there and just to have a little fun We were talking about this dollar stuff and you know one of these Canadian guys says to me You know what do you think about the Kearney and the Canadian dollar I said that's perfect. It's great. I think there's gonna be a lot of money to be made and he says oh really yeah we're gonna how are we gonna make money I said what I did the math and When the trucker thing was going on I found out I looked at into what George Soros did to the Bank of England. It was a 50, they had 50 billion on the balance sheet for England, and a $10 billion short brought the whole thing down. It caused interest rates to be jacked five full percent,

500 basis points in a day, and it completely erased the $50 billion, or 50 billion pounds they had on the balance sheet. They spent it all fighting the $10 billion short. It's all it took. And so when the trucker thing was happening, I actually did the math, and I said, well, you know, maybe we get one punch, but old Joe Biden is going to bail out the bank of Canada with some provisional liquidity from the Federal Reserve. That ain't happening in this environment.

No one's coming to save Canada. So this was the story I gave that boomer. I said it's a big short of degenerate bitcoins waiting to destroy your dollar, especially because Mark Carney is there. They can't wait. It's going to be a big party to them. So I think it's any day. I mean, legitimately any day. And to finish where I was going with that, too.

you know, Alberta separates, there's really just math, right? When the Federer government prints money, they're siphoning value from the entire economy, right? And overwhelmingly, we in Alberta produce more per person in our economy than anywhere else in the country. We overwhelmingly feel the brunt of that print. And at the same time, the actual money that we're generating in tax revenues is going to fund the rest of the country. and you know I don't think that I don't think Montreal is ready to go without its pylons right so many yeah there's there's a lot of pylons in Montreal and and they need those pylons and so realistically if Alberta leaves the country it's going to be a situation where the choices are Ontario can pay

for those pylons which I don't think they're going to be very happy to do or they can print more money And really it's just pushing them further down the spiral to a dead currency. And you're going to need wheelbarrels full of those moose nickels to get yourself a pylon in Montreal. Now, Dave, I think the one-to-one exchange of Canadian moose shekels to USDA, it reminds me of that the screwed up incentives in that India cobra story. that you always share, but I feel like there may be a direct incentive for people to continue printing and smuggling Canadian moose shekels into the free state of Alberta to get through USDA. But nonetheless, nonetheless, gents, I am going to do a final rotation in a moment here. I do want to say to everybody that's watching live, of course,

I hope you're enjoying the show. If you are, give that like button to smash. It really does help. We're going to give a quick shout out to our sponsors. Again, I'll remind everybody, stick around. We're going to, we're going to give info on the upcoming sat market, Bitcoin Rodeo and Mountain Workshop that we've got coming this weekend. So make sure you get over to Calgary. It's going to be a party. But nonetheless, we'll be back in a sec. And we'll be back with Dave's reason for being bullish.

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And as I was saying before, I did want to let people know about the stuff we've got coming up on the weekend here. Friday night, we've got the SAT Market here. in Calgary. This is a community initiative that I started about a year and a half ago. This will be our fifth one. And basically we just have the local, well, it started with local bitcoins, but now we've got bitcoins coming in from around the country and from the U.S. Some people have been in from as far as Argentina to be part of the sat market. But basically, bitcoins that create goods and services and sell them for sats. So come and see what a local circuit.

Bitcoin economy can be even in a big city and we're making a blueprint so people can partake. Also, we do crazy giveaways every time. I think I've got a stack of cold card cues and a few block clocks and a bunch of other awesome stuff to give away when we do the raffle. So make sure you come out for that. It's going to be a good time. Again, QR code here if you want the, if you want to check out the website. But of course, with that, this is tailored to be right before the Bitcoin Rodeo created by Dave here. And we highly recommend that you come check it out. I'll be there.

Francis Pooliott, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, Eric Kaysen, Sean Newman, Maidex. Nolan, of course, is going to be joining us. Adam O'Brien, Steve Barber. Ben Harper, Derek Philip Brent, just a whole bunch of people. Canute and Luke's fan home and Luke DeWolf are making the pilgrimage to get over. here. Just lots and lots of awesome people. Of course, Tamara, Tamara Litch from the Canadian Trucker Protest, a whole bunch of people making the way down to be a part of the Bitcoin

rodeo. So again, if you want to check it out, QR code on the side. There's a few tickets left. So make sure that you come on down. And if you happen to be in the region, then I think we've got one space left. We're doing the Bitcoin survival workshop in the Rocky Mountains on the Monday. So make sure you come out. We're going to be teaching you all kinds of stuff. And I think there might be a space left for that, but I'll leave that QR code there as well for you to check out. Anyways, I'm going to shut up now. And we're going to get into our final reason for being bullish. And Dave, I'm going to toss it straight to you. Why are you bullish? Yeah. So, you know, I always come on here and tell you where I'm not bullish.

I'm bullish. First of all, I'd say that in the long term, I am bullish. All this stuff that we're talking about, this transition to Bitcoin being viewed as a form of collateral is really important, I think. That's the next big step in terms of Bitcoin finding its way into really every corner of the traditional financial markets. And things like Bitcoin back mortgages, I think, are just the tip of the iceberg. You know, I think we're going to start to see Bitcoin used in a lot more interesting financial products. So there's, for example, there's a startup I'm on the board of that's doing a traditional raise. They're raising some convertible debt, but they're backing one third of the convertible debt with Bitcoin.

So, you know, your risk profile is compared traditional startup investing. It's just drastically different now. And you have this scenario where if the startup fails, the investor gets that Bitcoin back, which, which, you know, may by that time have grown to a larger than one third of the, the initial investment. And if the, if everything goes well and the startup either pays back the debt or converts it into shares, then they have this,

this Bitcoin now on the balance sheet that, you know, just further increases the runway of the startup. So I think all that stuff's really promising. The reason that I'm not bullish right now, the reason that I'm bearish in the short term, I would say is because this treasury company stuff is really feeling like a mania. Yeah, right? It's starting to feel a lot like the ICO craze.

And when you've got, you know, it's great that the traditional markets are starting to realize that Bitcoin is a useful form of collateral, but there's no sense in double paying, in overpaying for that collateral. You know, and you see these premiums that are stacking up on micro strategy and all these other companies out there where people are investing into vehicles that really only get them like 30, 40 cents on the dollar of exposure to Bitcoin. You know, that I don't think is sustainable in the long term. And so I don't know where this is going to end. Usually this kind of a cycle ends with some kind of a catastrophic failure of some kind of a system that leads to cascading collapse of various valuations and everything sort of coming back to Earth. And I think that's probably due for a pop to this little mini bubble that we're in right now, I would say. And really just when you've got that kind of mania, the market kind of needs to shake it out, right? And you need to get back to earth and get to some form of rational action within the market.

And, you know, that I think is what will probably lead us to, you know, something like what Joe is predicting, I think is not super far-fetched. But I think we probably have some pain in the middle here would be my guess. And, you know, you got to get those irrational weak hands out of the market before. the corn can really fly. Yeah, I wonder how the whole treasury company thing is going to play out. Like on one hand, I think Sailor, more or less, he's got his ducks in a row. I wouldn't be super, and he's been through a bare market, so I feel like he's probably pretty well positioned.

But I think one of the things that we're probably already seeing and are bound to see more of is, you know, when I boil it down to the individual level, if you try to live on a Bitcoin standard and you can't create value for others and spend less than you earn, it does not work. You know, if you're bleeding money constantly, you can't just as an individual keep getting more debt without figuring out how to actually have an income to support that. And so, especially on a Bitcoin standard, because as the price moves, oftentimes you're forced to utilize that Bitcoin at very inopportune times. And I could see scenarios where companies that maybe don't have, like that are just bleeding money, see the trend of, hey, all these, all these Bitcoin treasury companies, their stocks are just ripping. So why don't we just get more debt, despite the fact that we're not making.

making any money and buy Bitcoin with it and pump the stock. And I worry that there's going to be a number of those examples where when the supply and optionality of how many Bitcoin Treasury companies could be there for the market outpaces the demand for them and things shit the bed, a lot of those companies could end up even more screwed than they were before they decided to pull the trigger on that. So I'm I don't know exactly how it's going to play out, but again, to just to Dave's point, it feels like if there could be some catastrophe written on the wall. I just don't know when it when it comes home to roost. Yeah, they're all, I mean, you look at why the 21, what was it called 21X went with,

what's his name again from Strike? Malers. Yeah, Mallors, right? So they go with Mallors because he's great at content, right? Michael Saylor is essentially a marketing guy. That's what he does, right? You've got Metaplanet. You got Dylan.

He's a great content creator. He's great at writing. He's great online. They have to, because they already have to stick out. They already are marketing instruments. And indeed, you're right. If they're not steak and shake, what's going on? And so if we don't know who they are, why would we bother?

That's why you can see a lot of these folks, you know, even going with a kind of, you know, kind of a TV studio approach with their whole, with the whole business, right? That's what Saylor did with the micro strategy offices. He's made an event space now, our strategy offices. He's got a podcast studio in there for Bikourners to come. So there's definitely going to be a fight for attention. and if things are not, if they're boring, which they're going to be, they're going to be boring soon.

That's what Dave is saying. And I think I can see it. There's a bunch that are going to be boring. So if you're boring, no one has time for you in Bitcoin. But now what I do like about it, or what I will say is what we saw Pierro Schard write about, that the leverage, unlike with BlockFi, unlike with these other schemes, isn't on the Bitcoin. You're not necessarily going to be forced if you look at the way these things are structured

to sell the Bitcoin. The leverage is all on the stock. The stock might blow up. That could destroy the balance sheet and then they have to go and sell the Bitcoin. But in the end, it might be only the Bitcoin that's left. It might not have the same forced sale into the market that we could fear. It's not exactly like it was with BlockFi and then suddenly the Bitcoin's gone and everyone has to sell it and everyone's got all this debt. They could just keep selling stock.

I don't know. There's a million scenarios. They're all a little bit different. But the leverage is on the stock. It's not necessarily on the Bitcoin. They're not like Sailor is not you know the stock is going up is because people see the balance sheet and they think their creditworthiness of Strategy is better therefore they get more Money to borrow but they're not really they're not issuing

They're not borrowing off the Bitcoin the Bitcoin isn't leveraged itself so at least my understanding is so That's how I see it Joe I'm curious to get your thoughts here Are you are you bullish or bearish Treasury companies I completely bullish I think Bitcoiners have this PTSD and can one player become over their skis? Yes, one player absolutely can. What tends to happen in these circumstances is you have entities enter the space. They're wildly successful.

And then folks move further out on the risk curve. So instead of being secured with converts and other instruments that aren't really due until 2028, which is where sailors mostly positioned, you start having people borrow with money that is you know, mark to market or, you know, they become more risky. And that's, that's the end of that cycle. That's how that always gets. People push it too far. Most of the entrance into the marketplace at this point have been fairly tame, fairly conservative, fairly, I think, professional in how they're, they're doing this. But for people to compare this circumstance to something like Terra Luna and Blackfi and these entities that were over leveraged with, you know, all these

alt coins that, you know, worth nothing. And then there's a liquidity crunch and then their balance sheets look like absolute garbage. This couldn't be. further from what the situation we're facing right now. We're facing massive amounts of institutional capital being raised. And then that capital is being used to purchase Bitcoin, which I think everybody in this call thinks that Bitcoin is the pristine collateral. Bitcoin is the collateral that you want to have. It's not the collateral that's going to capsize your institution. And to me, long run, I mean, I think every major financial firm, every major bank, every major company, they're all going to hold Bitcoin. So what is the concern that people have when the first

of that breed are entering the marketplace. To me, it's wildly bullish. And until I see some entity out there engaging in risky business and getting over their skis, borrowing Bitcoin in a way, which I think is not smart, I'm not gonna be negative or pessimistic just because we have this, again, PTSD that it always ends really badly for Bitcoin and these types of bull runs.

I think this is fundamentally different. I don't remember who was saying it, but I read on Twitter that somebody is, analogizing that maybe it was, maybe it was sailor. I can't remember, but somebody was arguing that, you know, in prior cycles, you know, you had altcoins attracting all these retail investors. Now you have the Bitcoin Treasury companies. You have, these are the shiny new object of this cycle, but it's fundamentally different

because what they are holding is built on a solid foundation, which is Bitcoin. So to me, yeah, I'm very bullish on this. I think this is just the first wave. I think it's going to get crazy over the next six months to 12 months. Partly where I think, you know, you're going to have this break of the. predictable four-year cycle. And yeah, maybe it does eventually come to a crashing end where people get over their skis. But that's not now. That's not with the entities that have moved in so far. I just don't see signs of that. I want to hone in on one that I'm just curious to get thoughts

because I don't know a ton about it. And I'm just the little bit that I know it makes me go, really? So Metaplanet. If I'm not mistaken, this was a hotel chain, correct? Yes. Prior. They basically were selling off all their properties and they only at the time when they turned into a Bitcoin treasury company, they had one, I think one property left, if I'm not mistaken. And then they became a Bitcoin treasury company and their their stock exploded. And so like I'm just I'm just curious. Can anybody explain to me the nuance there of why would one want to buy a net of planet? What's the value proposition?

I think I can do that. Just because I was sort of in the room when it was created, I was working with Dylan. I know those people. I was in Hong Kong when they announced it with them. Now I was a, I worked as a lawyer in Japan in the days where Bitcoin. started. So I have a deep history with Japan and my wife's half Japanese. I love Japan. I went to all kinds of Bitcoin events over the over in Japan in my life. Now what's and it's the reason why I've always believed this. It was sort of like a I read something in the early days of Bitcoin that the

reason for which Satoshi Nakamoto chose the name Satoshi Nakamoto was and that's not true. I've never been able to find it. It might have just been a hallucination. was that the 08 crisis really made the American economy like the Japanese economy. It's called the lost decade. What happened in Japan was they could not even induce inflation. There was no way they have a demographics issue. Now, something else is going on in Japan that you don't know about, which is that retail play in the stock market is way higher than we're used to,

like way higher. Like everybody has a little bit of access. and connection to the stock market there. It's very normal to sling stocks. Now, something happened when that huge crisis happened in the Japanese economy in the 90s, where they had zero interest, in fact, negative interest rates for a long time. And it's called Abbeonomics. They've had this forever.

Abe was a big part of that. So you have all of this desire and ability by the government to print, and it sort of doesn't get reciprocated in the market. Now, what ended up happening in the stock market was the Japanese government and institutions basically bought it all. So in the same way that the same Vanguard or Goldman Sachs and a few participants own the entire stock market, except GameStop in the New York Stock Exchange situation, kind of all the same participants, it's all the same groups. What happened in Japan was the same thing. It all got concentrated.

It was basically the government owns everything. Now, imagine there is no stock that isn't part of this cabal except Metaplanet. So they knew they could create something that wasn't going to be correlated to the rest of the market. And that could use the easy liquidity of Japan to buy Bitcoin and do something special. So it was more Metaplanet fits Japan. You can't just take Metaplanet and put it somewhere else and get the same result. It's because the country there all participates in the stock market. Every stock market has mostly been socialized by the government and derisked by prints.

And so this one stood out. that it was not successful and never got the welfare check that most of the liquidity that was being given by all the institutions in the country. So it was this unique opportunity, kind of the reason why I believe Satoshi Nakamoto took the Japanese name, Japan is a little ahead of the American experience and understanding what a fiat apocalypse looks like. And right now they've been using the defibrillator of liquidity and prints to try to keep their stock market alive. It's a Frankenstein zombie. It's not, you know, it's alive.

It's got some signs of life, some brain activity. But that's what Dylan and Simon were betting on. Simon has deep experience in the capital markets in Japan. He knew he could get access to this cheap money, this easy flowing money, because they want an excuse to give it. So he said, okay, I can stick out of the market. That's why they got all this attention. That's why they have this huge lineup.

This why it became a big phenomena over in Japan. There is a big thirst for something that isn't, what's already on the market and something that isn't put. You know, it's like what we did to Wall Street in 0.8. We made it into a porno. They took real risk away. Like, you know, some people just want to fuck. Some people just want the real thing.

Pornos won't do. Masturbation won't do. They turned Wall Street into masturbation to a certain extent by always injecting liquidity into the market. But a guy like Arthur Hayes, you know, he went into Bitcoin in those early days. You saw a human capital migration from Wall Street into Bitcoin because some people want to really risk and make money. And that's what's going on in Japan.

And that's why Metaplanet exists in the way it does. So I think I did a good job explaining it. I don't know, maybe if that made sense. I mean, I think so. I mean, I'm still likely not, you know, it's not my cup of tea. You're not buying. You're going to go stay in the hotel and make some content. There we go.

They're going to turn that into a studio too. Maybe I could get a free room. I'll see what I can do. Nonetheless, yeah, it'll be interesting to kind of see, see how things continue to play out through the end of the year and into next. Joe, I want you to, what's the, out of the examples that we have of Bitcoin Treasury companies, what would you say without having to, you know, point fingers at a particular one, is there anything that you've seen that is probably the riskiest behavior? Yeah. So the riskiest behavior is this. If you have an entity, and again, we're not going into individual names, but, you know, if you're holding the shares, okay, and think of GameStop, you have a risk of severe dilution because some of the entities, they're raising money by issuing, you know, millions of new shares. And when they're doing that, you're a holder, right, you're effectively subsidizing their ability to work Bitcoin. As long as there's a frenzy, as long as there's a bull market, right? That is where there's very little risk. Where the risk really comes in is in an event where you have a long term, either sideways or down Bitcoin market, and they

have to reverse course. So here's a potential risk on one entity I will name. Michael Saylor has said repeatedly that he will never sell Bitcoin, that he's going to burn keys, like take him to his grave, right? If you were to change that, or if you got in a situation where Bitcoin wasn't appreciating as rapidly as you needed to, it need to, or investors wanted to, or bondholders wanted to, and he pivoted from that. He became a seller. To me, the psychological effect of that, well, we're really just going to sell 5% of our position because we want to shore up our balance seat and pay down some debt. It doesn't matter if it's one Bitcoin, right? If he transforms into becoming a regular seller or at least forecasting that he could sell in the marketplace,

this narrative of buy and hold forever could be undermined. And that is a significant risk, in my opinion. I know people will say he'll never do that. It'll never happen, Joe. I've seen will say that before in other circumstances and it does happen. So you have to at least have that on your radar. The other issue is like just, you know, if you're an investor and you're buying these companies and you're buying it because you think you can outperform Bitcoin or get a higher return on your investment, I would be very cautious of that because I think over a long enough time period, Bitcoin will eat the lunch of any of these vehicles. But over short periods, you could do relatively well. And you could also do very badly, right? If you are diluted because people are using the equity to

buy more Bitcoin, that share price can fall hard. it might not come back and you could have been much better off just holding Bitcoin. So those are the major risks. I have not yet seen, which I think the heart of your question is about, I've not yet seen an entity that is saying we're going to borrow significant sums of cash that is marked to market where we could get margin called, where we will actually become a forced seller Bitcoin. Once you see that, that would make me very concerned. So, you know, stay tuned. Okay. Now, I want to throw out one other thing here in and around, particularly around Sailor and I'm just kind of want to get your speculative comments around this. I had Marty Bentz on the show

a couple of weeks ago and we were talking about just recently Sailor had said or had been asked will you like other entities have show the Bitcoin addresses just so people can kind of you know easily see the the reserves and I recognize that you know that's only one half of the equation the proof of liabilities is a whole different thing and everything. His explanation with a lot of people about why he would not do that didn't sit well with a lot of bit-corneres in that he said it was a security risk, which... Well, actually, he said, take a look at the AI, right?

Type it into chat GPT and have it tell you why. To me, that's a... I don't know why I would say that. Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, just in general, the idea that, especially if, If your goal is you're being, I would say the risk, again, boiling it down to an individual level, which I understand is completely different from a corporation, but just in terms of actual security of the coins, the security risk comes in saying, painting a target on you, saying,

I have this much Bitcoin. You know, once you publicly disclose that you have Bitcoin, then showing an address where that Bitcoin resides, in terms of that Bitcoin being stolen, the risk of that does not increase just by having the Bitcoin address there. An example of this would be, again, I work with the HRF. And so, you know, Anna Chekovich, working with the Anti-Corruption Foundation for years, they just had a singular Bitcoin donation address. Bad for privacy, but in terms of having things stolen, you know, it was brought up to them

before the implications for donors was outlined and they changed course. But, you know, in terms of the address there, everybody's like, oh, you should have a new address for each donor. And they're like, why? You know, Russia can't get it. They like, fuck you. Look at all the donations. What are you going to do about it?

And, you know, they were right. They couldn't just go and take them. So I think the statement in and around him saying, oh, it's a security. security risk, it was, just didn't sit well. But Marty Bent was saying in and around kind of, Joe, what you're pointing at is the idea that maybe in the future, the idea that maybe there would be a tiny bit of selling, like if the, if the nav was negative and it made sense to potentially sell some Bitcoin and buy back some shares, so the Bitcoin per share was elevated, again, there's a lag on that, right?

Like, their reporting is what, quarterly? And so if everybody saw that happening, you don't have that advantage of being able to get shit done in the interim. It could tank prices. It could do whatever. So I'm just wondering if you think that's possibly part of, or if any of you want to throw your hat in the ring as to potentially the real reason why you might not. want to share addresses or if you have additional insight into that reason? I don't know.

I'll go real quick. So without revealing any privilege or confidential or proprietary, I can say that for the risk assessors if they're listening. I'll tell you that there are numerous entities that have agreements with custody providers that prohibit them from revealing on-chain addresses. And we do know through public statements that micro-strategy, does not custody its own Bitcoin, that it is primarily custodied at Coinbase. So without speculating or revealing anything confidential, I can just tell you for just pure deduction, you know, Coinbase holds billions of dollars of Bitcoin. They have an advanced security system and through for whatever reason, why they deem it

necessary, there may be a contractual prohibition on micro strategy revealing custodied Bitcoin held by Coinbase on their behalf. Interesting. All right. I don't know. Nolan, Dave, anything to add there? I thought it was trade secrets. Basically, there are, you know, some of those, whatever, those crazy things they put out

the super, what is it, the yield max and all that? Isn't there some buying and selling with year-d-max? Yield max? Isn't that thing kind of active and lively? I don't know. I don't know much about it. But I thought it was trade secrets. There's a bunch of reasons why they might want to move coins from that address.

And, you know, when they say they'll never sell coins, I don't know if that extends to, you know, options strategies that leave you in a net neutral position. You sell the coins, you long the options. And you're, you still have the same exposure to the same number of coins, but you physically move those coins. So it might be that and there there could be other reasons why they they might want to move the coins and moving the coins could cause a little bit of Hysteria if somebody saw them moving the coins But also you know that would be what you'd say if you didn't have the coins Yeah, I thought it was so long though that my interpretation was trade secrets basically literally trade secrets

Which is they're right. I mean net neutral is fine. I mean that that they're not scamming anyone. It's normal. I mean, we'll leave it to the live chat to the side. I'm sure there's going to be all kinds of interesting commentary there. But nonetheless, gentlemen, I'm going to put a bow on this, and I think it's an opportune time to give a little wrap up. Really quick, just down the line, if you have any quick final thought, anything you want to toss to people or recommend for people to check out before we say a farewell. Nolan, you have any quick final thought?

Yeah, I saw some folks in the chat say, Nolan, watching your old content, come check out the new content. Maybe not all of you know, but the morning show moved from Bitcoin Magazine's feed over to Roxham TV's feed so you can catch us on Rumble, all the different places, Roxham TV. We rename the show from the breakup to the Great Awakening. You know, we broke up when Trump won. We were, you know, world changed now.

It's time for the Great Awakening. And so come around. We're at 9 a.m. Eastern time to about 11 a.m. Eastern time. I think it's the longest running Bitcoin Daily Show in the world. I'm pretty sure. And we have a lot of fun. So come around. And we do sort of two hours, a little bit of talk radio.

It's a little bit of your Russian limbaugh, but Bitcoin version. So there you go. Awesome. Awesome, definitely check it out. Joe, we'll toss it down to you. Any final thought, anything you want to point people towards? Yeah, first off, if you want to, if you need to have a litigated matter,

litigated dispute or regulatory dispute in Bitcoin, feel free to reach out. If I can't help you, I know some lawyer in the space who can, I'm pretty well connected there. So happy to help and point you in the right direction one way or the other. But in terms of content that I think everybody should take a look at, sometimes Lynn Alden, who I think very high love,

She puts out so much good content that people sort of, I think they don't always stay up to date with it. She put out an excellent piece. It's about a week old. And I highly suggest every Bitcoin or take a look at it. It is called three misconceptions about U.S. debt. I think it came out just last week. Fantastic piece. If you haven't had a chance to dig into it, she's got a lot of good charts in there.

She makes some forecast about, you know, how long they can keep the train running, right? Then nothing stops this train thing. So there's some great nuggets in there. So it's a good piece to digest. If you haven't, if it got lost in the shuffle, take some time over the next few days or over the weekend unpack it. I highly recommend it. But thank you so much for having me on. Yeah, no worries.

No worries. Dave, I'll give you the final word while you're, you know, tossing that out there. I'll put the Bitcoin rodeo up off to the side as well because that's coming right up. But any final thoughts here? Yeah, I mean, that's the main thing to shill here. We've got a lot of cool stuff going on. You mentioned most of it, the Sat Market, the rodeo, Friday, Saturday, Sunday this week. We also have an event happening on Thursday.

It's called Bitcorners for Free Alberta, hosted by Bull Bitcoin. I'm not going to post the link to that publicly, but if anybody wants to come to that, just reach out to me. And other than that, I've got to shill my own podcasts. I've got my own little mini podcast called The Bitcoin Hour that I put out whenever I feel like it. and that one you can find on my Twitter. It's in my, my pin post on my Twitter has all the episodes of that one. And then, you know, Nolan and I and Brad Mills have our own Canadian political podcast that we do live every Friday morning.

So we're just kind of ranting about the state of the nation and giving the Bitcoiners perspective from that. And we get some pretty good content out of that too, I think. So, yeah, check out all that stuff. And hopefully see many of you. at the Bitcoin Rodeo. Dave, we got to do a live recording in Calgary. We will, yeah.

We'll have to figure it out. I think we'd probably figure it out on Friday morning somewhere. No, I don't fly until Friday evening. Oh, Friday evening. Oh, yeah. Awesome. Maybe we should do it live at the sat market. I don't know if Newland's going to get here in time for it.

I might be late for that. I might be late. Oh, okay. That's right. Well, we'll figure something out. Either way. Gents, I guess all will wrap it here. Thank you guys so much for being here.

Everybody in the chat, thank you for being here. Give that like button to smash if you've enjoyed everything. And check out these guys. Links for them are in the show notes down below. With that, we're out of here. Everybody have a wonderful day or evening. Keep stacking stats, but also keep stacking your Bitcoin skills. We'll see you guys next time for your daily session.

Thanks, guys. Take care, guys. Cheers. Thank you.