BTC Sessions - Bitcoin Cycle Price Targets And Strategies With Danish Hodl EP105

Episode Date: October 8, 2020

Today I sat down with Anders AKA Danish Hodl: bitcoiner, YouTuber and #2 copied Etoro trader in the US. We discussed Bitcoin’s halving cycle, the psychology around its price movements, and Anders’ strategies in trying to grow his stack while acknowledging the inherent risks of trading a finite asset like BTC. Anders' eToro profile, where you can copy his trading on auto-pilot if in US: https://etoro.com/people/anders_ Anders' YouTube: https://youtube.com/user/kargaard Anders' Twitter: https://twitter.com/Anders_ SUPPORT THE SHOW: LEDN offers Bitcoin backed loans – Sign up and get $50 free https://bit.ly/33DJkGD Get Wasabi wallet and enjoy your Bitcoin privacy https://wasabiwallet.io/ Buy a Cobo Vault to secure your Bitcoin! https://bit.ly/2GgMFlH Cobo Vault Tutorial https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnRjvZKulrA Crypto Cloaks: Get the BEST Bitcoin swag out there https://www.cryptocloaks.com/shop/ If you value my work and would like to send me a tip, they are always appreciated! LIGHTNING tips: https://tippin.me/@BTCsessions Join my Telegram channel! https://t.me/btc_sessions

Wasabi wallet and fairly private. What is up, everyone? I'm Ben with the BTC sessions. Today I had the pleasure of chatting with Anders, aka Danish hoddle. He is a Bitconer, he is a YouTuber, and more importantly, he is the number two followed trader in his niche on E Toro. And so Anders, the reason I had him on is he recently dropped a medium article, talking about his tactics, taking into account the four-year cycle that many believe Bitcoin to have in and around the halving and the manias and subsequent bear markets that focal point

around that event. So he talks about short-term being very unpredictable versus the longer term, which he believes he has a little bit more of a handle on, at least he's speculating such. Now, Bitcoiners are traditionally very adverse to trading, at least hardcore. bit corners for sure. But Anders lays out a case for why he's taking a small portion of his portfolio and willing to take a risk to potentially, and hopefully, I'm crossed my fingers from, dive in and attempt to build his stack a little bit more on top of his regular dollar cost averaging. Now, some of my favorite parts of this conversation were in and around the psychology that these runs have in regards.

to both new entrance into the Bitcoin space and people that have been around for a long time that find themselves in a lot of money and potentially able to change their lives substantially. So I really enjoyed it. We get into, for him, some very specific allocations as to what he's doing, his buy and sell targets, his projections for price not only just this Bitcoin epoch, but we're talking within the next decade. and reasons why, including what markets that Bitcoin is going to hone in on and potentially take a massive bite out of. So I really, really enjoyed this conversation.

It was super bullish. I felt incredible after getting out of this conversation. I do recommend that you check out Anders on Twitter and on YouTube. Go and check him out. He's a lot of fun. But regardless, this is my conversation with Anders, again, aka Danish Hoddle. and I really hope you enjoy it. This is Sips with Sessions.

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I'm giving away one for every show, as I said. So with that, let's dive into... the show. So we're recording. How you doing, man? Hi. I'm doing good. Welcome. Welcome. It's good to see you. What are you are you sipping on a beverage? I've got my my first class Bitcoin citizen mug here. What are you sipping on? Awesome. So I got this from I tore a golden coffee mug, which I love. And in that, I'm sipping my trade juice, French vanilla coffee, which is my absolute favorite drip. coffee at the moment anyway. So I've got like morning every I've got I've got like the poor man's curing cup that I but that's okay that's okay. It looks great your cup but yeah. Yeah. I mean the

cup is great. What's in it is not as fancy as yours but that's okay. Like I get my caffeine fix. This is one area that it's okay to invest. To be honest, this is not even, it's not expensive. This is what I think six, seven dollars or something. Oh, yeah. Anyway, it is what it is. Coffee is great. Yeah. So welcome. I guess we'll dive into kind of who you are and what you do in a moment.

Now, the reason that we're talking today is I saw you did a medium post the other day. And the title of it is trading the Bitcoin halving cycle. And I'm not going to put the second part of the name of the article yet because we'll touch on that at the end. But you basically talk about kind of the cycles that Bitcoin seems to be going through. And you are a traitor. We'll get a little bit into that in a moment. But I just found that you laid stuff out very, very simply. It's a super easy read.

Anybody can kind of take a look at it and understand where you're coming from, what your reasoning is, whether or not they agree or not. But I thought it was just nice and concise and such a simple read. And I really enjoyed it. And it's also bullish as fuck. So I like that too. But I guess before we dive in, do you want to just give like the quick like one minute synopsis, who you are, what you do and kind of what you're doing with this article?

Yeah, sure. So we'll get to the article a little bit about me. So I, um, I bought my first stock when I was 12 and my mom was worried. My dad said it's okay. I sold it a month later. I think I made 20% of something. That was back when stocks were an actual like certificate. And when you wanted your dividend, you cut out like, you know, dividend number five handed

it into the bank and they put it on your bank account or you got a cash. So that's always been something that I've been interested in. It wasn't how I found Bitcoin. It was, I didn't come at Bitcoin from an investor speculator point of view, but just just happened to see that this was, you know, a great investment, in my opinion. The way I came across Bitcoin was back in 2016, for a long time, I was very skeptical about the way the system is running. You know, why did we have such a prospering middle class in the 60s doing well, one income, they have a house, they had a car, you know, you have a picture

of them being less stressed than people are today, right? I see people with, like, I have friends that have, like, a law degree from, like, a top university in L.A., yet, you know, still struggling month to month because things are expensive. And you can't really save money like you used to be able to. So I was researching and watching a lot of YouTube videos because I felt the problem is somehow it's to do with the monetary system it's to do with the federal reserve well in US and then the central bank in other countries and so I felt okay something is rotten with the federal reserve and the way that system operates but it

didn't know what it was so I came I was watching all these YouTube videos and then one guys you know was was describing this was a short like five six minute video how the money we have currently how it's, you know, it's bad and it doesn't stole value and why gold and Bitcoin is money. And I was like, wait, Bitcoin? And that sounded, you know, and like within like him describing it, within 10, 15 seconds, I was like, that's it. That's the answer. I mean, no doubt gold has been the best money the world has known for about 3,000 years. Bitcoin has some clear advantages over gold. I mean, we don't need to go into them today, but there are some clear, clear advantages,

which I believe is why, you know, Bitcoin is a better money than gold, and we'll take over as money. The fiat currency we've had, like as an in-between is not money, because when you look up money in the dictionary, one of the things it says is it can store value. And it's a build-in policy of fiat currency to dilute the value. And basically, steal people's savings. And so my whole thing about, you know, people used to be in a better position. We have GDP growth every year, yet people are in a worst position. You know, we have more poor people.

The middle class is shrinking. The middle class is struggling. And the conclusion I came to was it's really the money printing or the fiat currency printing that because it's diluting this. value of savings and making money cheaper and expanding the supply of it, that is something that is benefiting. I'm not the only one saying this. Pierre Rochad is very big on this.

It's benefiting people who hold assets. So a rich person may have 98% of their savings in assets. And assets go up when you make the interest rate artificially low. And poorer people or people who have less funds or assets or savings, well, they have a bigger percentage of the savings in fiat currency. And when you print more fiat, you hurt those people disproportionately more because almost everything they have is being diluted, while the people who are richer and have mainly assets have, you know,

their savings go up. in value because when you make the interest rate cheaper or lower, it inflates the value of a company or any type of asset because that little return that it gives, if the interest rate goes down, then the market cap automatically is pushed up. Yeah. So I like how you talk about, you know, that sneaking kind of feeling of something's wrong, but you can't put your finger on it. And I feel like that's most people nowadays.

They feel like there's this pinch and there's this, it's like it just gets more and more difficult. And you go to the grocery store and you pick up stuff and it doesn't seem to last as long because of shrinkflation where they're shrinking the product and keeping the price relatively the same. And so you go through stuff quicker. You're spending more money. And like when they state inflation is 2% or what through the CPI, the consumer

price index, they're not referring to any of the stuff that you actually use. They don't use food. They don't use housing. They don't use fuel in those calculations. All of the crap that you normally buy and need regularly is not included in that. They include things like electronics, which are naturally deflationary because they advance so quickly. They use those as measurements. And so it gives us very skewed view of what's happening to your purchasing power and makes it difficult to understand what's happening. And when you talk about people who have that don't have assets that are lower income, they don't own their homes. They don't own stocks or gold or anything like that. And so when they are basically living paycheck to paycheck and maybe they have a bit of cash savings,

what's happening is the people that are the wealthiest that have the assets. Okay, well, the more money printed, the more money gets funneled into assets because nobody wants to hold the cash that knows what's going on. So those prices go up. Not only that, but it tends to be the people that are the wealthiest, like the bankers, they get access to the money first when it's created. So they don't actually experience the inflation. They get it first and then they get to spend it out into the economy or pump it into assets,

thus inflating the prices even more. And so the people that are getting paid last that are living paycheck to paycheck, the prices go up first and then they get their pittance, their paycheck, and they go to buy things and everything's already more expensive. So not only do they not have appreciating assets under their belt, but they're having a harder and harder time just paying the bills and buying groceries and getting food on the table. So it's crazy.

It's insidious, really. Right. And, you know, I always felt I had a, like, a fairly good way of understanding, like, economics. It was my favorite topic in high school. It's what I studied in university. I just, it makes sense to me. I think it's easy to understand. And I just enjoy it.

It's a topic I enjoy. Yet, I mean, the only thing in economics when they started teaching me that in middle school, or sorry, high school was, I had a problem with this Kinesian approach where, you know, when we are not doing well, we should start spending money we don't have. That's, you know, that's how you look at the government. I'm like, this is wrong because, you know, you should be doing the austerion, like the, you know, austerity, like you got to save up money. You got to make sure you get your house and balance and all that.

So everything else I agreed with, but that particular thing I had a problem with, and my economics teacher was like correcting me, no, no, no, like, you know, we should spend money we don't have when, when things are bad. That's the economy. It's so backwards. Like if you have maxed out credit cards, your solution is not to get another credit card. It's to pay off your credit cards. Right.

So, and I do see that, all right, there's a difference. it's about, you know, stimulating the economy and all of this. But it, you know, as soon as you throw money into like your nation, how much of that goes out to imports, right? Money is being spent overseas, bringing in products and services. So it's, it's, you're wasting a lot of that money, just sending it overseas. It seems it's better to have your house in, in order. So yeah, but anyways, also, you know, I was meant to do a little introduction of myself pretty quickly.

I just started talking about Bitcoin because I love it, right? As most of us, you know, it's our passion. But so I had the same sort of experience and passion when I came across Bitcoin that I had with Internet that I came across in 95. I was like, man, this is, I read one article explaining what the Internet was and the possibility. there's like, man, this is it. It's going to change everything. It's the future. I started an internet company in 96,

and then I was just preaching internet like I'm preaching Bitcoin now. And to say something about at which stage we are at, it was easier to tell people about internet and convince them that, hey, there's a future here in 96, 97, than it is with Bitcoin in 2020, because people have very much been conditioned by the propaganda from the people that don't want to lose the power of controlling money, which means the central banks and politicians that benefit from being able to print more money when they want to spend money that they don't have. So they condition about all this, you know, it's money laundry, it's criminal activities. But anyways, Benny, so I know we're not we're not.

here to talk about all those things. I know, you know, we have an agenda. So yeah, let's let's let's dive in to what you so so first off there's one hurdle that I want to get over right now. And and, and we're going to talk about, uh, you know, your view on Bitcoin and its price action, where it's moving and reasons for that. But, um, in relation to the article that you wrote, uh, however, first I want to tackle the issue of trading. So a lot of people that watch me, a lot of people and Bitcoin that are hardcore Bitcoiners, they are very averse to trading. Myself included, I'm just not, I've read some books on TA, you know, very early on, was mildly interested and then very quickly got to a point where I was like, it's not for me. I'm, I, I huddle, I gradually accumulate.

And that's, that's me. Now, you're on the other, I won't say the other side of the spectrum, because not quite. So do you want to kind of give your thoughts on, on that and kind of how you're approach the idea of trading and the worry of like losing sats in the process. Yeah, yeah. So like when you were saying this like my feelings like, hey, hang on, I'm not a trader like because I don't see myself as in the category of day trading and technical analysis. I'm not here to say that that doesn't work for the really smart people that have, you know, the algorithms and and the computer power and all that. But technical analysis and and and trading, like day trading is usually what is considered trading, is not for me at all.

But, and I used, I mean, I call myself Danish Hoddle, but yesterday when I, when I published the medium article and I was putting it on Twitter, I started to realize that I cannot call myself Danish Hoddle if I, you know, I'm mainly Hoddle. So yes, I'm Danish Haud, but there is a, you know, percentage of my holdings where I'm like it makes sense to take advantage of this four-year clear patent in my opinion that there is so if you want to you know you know down payment for a car buy a bicycle whatever it is like why don't you try and and time that with when the price of bitcoin is higher so yeah I don't consider myself a trader I don't trade on a daily basis it also gets a stressful life. I think all traders can say that. They have to be awake all the time,

like looking at the price, a chart of Bitcoin. But I write this medium to long term. That's where I'm focused. And I'm comfortable now. I'm 100% exposed to Bitcoin. And I will be 100% exposed to Bitcoin pretty much until that we get that and to the end of the bull run that kind of has started. So, you know, I can sleep at night. I'm, you know, I'm not worried about 30% corrections. And I'm not like trading the day to day. Because I can't. I know I can. I will just lose my Bitcoin if I did that. I'm just here. You're not, you're not like leveraged up or anything, are you? No, I, I, you know, we all learn from our mistakes. And I, you know, that's education money. And I have learned from my mistake of leveraging. So I don't, I don't, I don't,

leverage because and at the end of the day let me just say before we go for like leveraging or even doing what i'm doing is totally unnecessary you can the potential in bitcoin and we'll get to that in the end i know talk about like price target in like for you know finally uh the potential is so big you don't need to do anything buy and whole bitcoin you're good um averaging in like accumulating like you said you're doing. Great strategy. You're a luck, like people are lucky to be alive at this point in time where one money is taking over from another money

that has such a big potential that you don't need to do anything. But I like to take, you know, a part of what I have. You know, let's say it's approximately around, you know, 10% plus minus and trade this cycle because I think it's going to be very doable. and, you know, I would like to have a little bit more than I have now. So therefore, I trade this and I find it like, you know, an academic challenge or mental challenge, you know, to play this game. So, yeah. Yeah, it's for you, it's a risk you're willing to take with a small percentage of your overall portfolio to potentially accumulate more SaaS is kind of where you're coming from.

So, yeah. Okay. Yeah. So first off, I guess we are. already covered short term. It's not for you. You're not doing the day trading. It's, it's, you know, it's pretty difficult to call, but I mean, anything can happen. Just this past week, we saw Bitmex got cracked down on in by, by the SEC and so on them, so forth. And so there was a sudden, it wasn't too pronounced. Actually, I'm surprised it held up pretty well given that. But,

you know, there can be sudden swings in price for a lot of different reasons. So it can be difficult to call that kind of stuff. So first, I guess before we get into kind of your outlook, let's talk about the four-year cycle and kind of how you envision, you know, the causation and what it kind of, I guess, let's talk about the four-year cycle, the fomo that it can cause and like who it pulls in during those fomo periods. Let's kind of dive into that. Right. So throughout the history of Bitcoin, we've seen how as the inflation rate, as the fresh supply goes down, which means that stock to flow goes up, the price then also increases of Bitcoin. And there is, and so that's what I'm focused on in this trade. Oh, one thing I want to preface here, just in case, it's so easy to forget that sometimes

there may be like super brand new people, but for those that do not know, the creation of new coins onto the network, every four years gets cut in half. So when Bitcoin started every 10 minutes, 50 new Bitcoin were created, every four years that's been cut in half. So we've had three cuts to the supply of new coins. We currently have 6.25 Bitcoin coming onto the market being mined every 10 minutes roughly. So when we talk about the inflation going down, that's that number. And when we talk about stock to flow, it's referring to the stock of all Bitcoin currently in circulation

versus the flow of new coins into the market. So that number goes up over time in that the stock, the total coins versus the flow is very high to low. So anyways, go on, go on. Absolutely. So no, I think that's very important just to cover to explain this mining reward and that, you know, new supply coming onto the market and how the percentage of that pressure supply actually goes down every 10 minute because the stock or the outstanding. supply goes up every 10 minutes, but it's the same coming out every 10 minutes. And then there is this event that goes on every approximately four years. Actually, it's a little bit less than four years in practice where the fresh supply is cut in half. And when this happened, it has like historically,

if we look at the numbers of the price graph, this just happens to push price hires. I mean, It's probably one of the first things we learned in economics when I started studying that is, you know, you have a supply curve and a demand curve. And when supply goes down, everything else being equal, the price will go up. So I think everyone can grasp that when something is less available, the price goes up of it. So that's pretty intuitive. So when we look at the history, every time Bitcoin's support. fresh supply has been caught in half, this creates a bull run. If you look at the anatomy a little bit more about the early stages, the middle stages and the end, it kind of starts actually already

before they're having. There is an anticipation of the supply being reduced. So, you know, for the for the 2000 and well the previous not the bull run that ended in seven, but the bull run that ended in 13, price started moving up 12 months before the having. In, sorry, that was before the 17. It's always dangerous to do calculations live, or remember specific numbers. But before the 17 bull run where the having was in summer of 16,

the uptrend started 12 months. started 12 months before. This last halving in May 11 US time or Canada time that had the uptrend starting 16 months in advance. So it started a little bit earlier because January 19 was the first month that was up from the bottom in December 18. So anyways, this is where the uptrend starts. And yes, last summer, during this upturn period, there was, you know, a bump, like a small term, like an opt-trent, it went high, then it went down again. So, as I'm saying also in the article, that short-term, there are fluctuations that creates fluctuations in that medium-term cycle of the four years. So then, anyways, the halving happens,

the actual event where supply is being removed from the market, which essentially now will go in and physically, in practice, push the price higher because the supply is missing. And that kind of, you know, now, like, slowly we're starting to move towards a bull run. And they tend to get steeper and steeper as we go towards the end. and and and and and and then I call like the last third of this bull run for the you know the fomo part uh again i'm not you know i didn't invent the deep plate here or the wheel is it's a lot of people agreed to this um but but that that end of the bull run where its fear of missing out is driving uh the price of bitcoin higher uh it really pulls in a lot of people and the price just goes hire very fast.

Until in the end, people who bought Bitcoin early on and now all of a sudden find themselves to be rich and they also find themselves to having 99 or more percent of their savings or their assets or their wealth allocated to one asset, they start to say maybe it's an idea to, you know, let me sell 10 percent and at least buy a house or pay of the mortgage or buy a car or something or buy some stocks because I mean if you have made it to the point where you're not only like financially independent but you're financially independent like times five whatever your target is it's just a little bit dangerous to have everything in one asset even though you're convinced that Bitcoin is going to grow up like multiples from here during this decade right you just

that's the time you got to like secure your family if you were early enough so sooner or later that supply from OGs in the space will out overman overpower the the demand coming from people being drawn in and I just remember the part of your question saying what is it that happens with the like people being drawn in the price develops and the FOMO who's you know like the bull runs the new bull runs like who is it primarily pulling it like I you know I I feel I know the answer and what you're alluding to, but like so if you want to touch on that a little bit. Yeah, sure. So actually, one of the things, there's some, some of the critics of the stock to flow models say that it doesn't take demand into account. And because I subscribe to that and feel is a great explanation

to the price, I was, I was thinking about that a lot and say, okay, so why doesn't it matter? What's the problem here? Like, why is demand? relevant for the model or how does it actually fit in? And the way I look at it now is that demand consists of two things. One is demand from hattlers that do understand, like they have done the education, like, you know, the research and got to a level where they understand both money and Bitcoin and therefore can see that Bitcoin is the best money we've ever had and therefore it will go higher. And they buy Bitcoin because they know long. term this is great. So we see a steady growth in the hotload demand from people who get it.

And then there's a big element, the second part of the demand of Bitcoin, which is really driven by the direction of the price. So as the having event happens and then, you know, physically the supply is missing and the price start to edge up, then sooner or later it edges up past the previous all-time high. You get more media coverage. CNBC is showing a price graph on TV, you know, that goes up and it gets steeper. That draws people in that, you know, greed and fear drives people's financial decisions. And as a lot of people start to see here, here's an asset, doesn't matter what it is,

here's an asset. It seems it just keeps going up. And it's going up faster and faster. that creates that foam with a fear of missing out and everybody wants to be rich if they can and then people start piling in based on what did the price do the last you know 12 months and that becomes so that uptrend bull run that started because supply was lacking in my opinion is turning into a real self-reinforcing bull run where because the price went up it will now go up faster because because it went up faster, it will go up even faster.

And that's where you then end up with that very steep, bomo peak in the end where Bitcoin does 100% in two weeks time. Like last time, it was 16 days in the 17 bull run. From the 1st of December to the 17th of December, 2017, Bitcoin did 100% price increase in 16 days. If we go back to the previous bull run, In November 2013, Bitcoin went up 100% in only nine days. And if we go back to the third last bull run, the one in April 2013, Bitcoin did

100% value increase in only five days. And by the way, so I believe that there's a reason that the bull runs take longer time and they're a little bit less steep. And it's simply because even though stock to flow is accelerating, which means the inflation rate in percentage of supply is coming down, it's accelerating at a slower pace. So anyway, so as people see that price going very steep, it draws in a lot of people who don't know necessarily yet what is Bitcoin.

and it just goes very, very steep. And then some of these people then become hotlers, like they actually listen to podcasts like yours, so they get to understand, wait, you know, this is what Bitcoin is. It's okay that it goes down in price because I'm looking at 10 years from now. So some of them will become hotlers,

and that means you have an increase in a hotler demand, like the whole time. But that second part of the demand that is a function of how did price develop recently, all of a sudden sees the price going down. So that goes from being a positive demand to being a negative demand. It means a lot of those people who just bought because it went up start selling because it's going down, as we call it weak hands. So, you know, they will sell because now it's fear driving their financial decision instead of greed. And they will start selling because they don't know what it is.

They don't know that 10 years from now they could have been rich. They're afraid this thing is going to zero. So even though they bought it at, you know, 18,000, oh my God, now it's 12. I got to get rid of it. And that so that we have to go through that process of cleansing where the people holding Bitcoin has to go from the people with no conviction to the people that did the research and understand it and have the conviction. So those Bitcoin has to be moved from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah. This is a perfect parallel with a concept that a lot of Bitcoin is talk about is time preference. And I think it's interesting the dynamic of the reasons people are in Bitcoin and their behavior and to whether they are high or low. low time preference. So those unfamiliar with the concept of time preference, if you have a low time preference, it means you are less worried about the immediate future. You're not super worried about the short term. You're willing to look super long term. So you have a very low preference for how quickly things go and how you're willing to take your sweet time. If you have a high time

preference, then you're very concerned with what's happening very, very quickly, things like day traders, people that. And so when you look at people that are in Bitcoin and their reasoning for being here is because they believe in the ideas behind it, they understand the economics and the reasoning for its creation, they are very low time preference. So the people you talk about that are gradually accumulating even through the bear markets and slowly, slowly accumulating. they're kind of in control of the price of Bitcoin in those kind of troughs where there's not a lot happening or it's the price movements are are less pronounced and less trothy than in the the manias. But when you get to the manias and these parabolic runs and FOMOS, the absolute top FOMO of

these cycles, you get the high time preference people, like you said, who, buy because the number is going up and sell only because the number is going down. They have no idea about the fundamentals of how this stuff works, but when there's enough of them and mass, they kind of take over the narrative of the price. So they replace these low time preference long-term hodlers and they are suddenly the main drivers of what's taking this price up and down. And so there's a mass influx of all these people that, just have to buy. They don't know why, but they're buying. They're buying because they see the number go up. And that's where you see, like you said, the 16 days 100%, or nine days, 100%, or five days,

100%. All of these high time preference people who have no idea what they're buying or why drive that quick up and down. And then when they're gone, it's those longer low time preference people that have done their research that stick around or in some cases the people that fomowed in actually take the time to do some research and they become those low time preference hoddlers that kind of sit through the troughs and then make decisions about what to do when those when those 100% spikes come and go maybe there's that time to get yourself a house or something like that yeah yeah agree a shout out to my book buddy, Pablo, that I've been speaking with, like on a very regular basis, like long Bitcoin

conversations on the phone, that we actually just like now started to put on, you know, my YouTube channel because we wanted to share those conversations. He fombered in at 17,000, but then he did the research and he turned into a hotler throughout the bear market, accumulating more as the price was going down. And now, instead of being in the negative, because he bought at 17, is in the positive because he got his average purchase price down significantly below where it is now. Got a friend just like that. Same thing, you know, right kind of in and around the peak that December, January comes in with a ton of money, buys up Bitcoin, unfortunately, also Ethereum. But besides the fact, instead of freaking out, he then took the time to understand. I think part of it was he started kind of diving in a little bit before he bought,

you know, kind of hit that point where he fomoed in. Things got crazy. But then stuck it out. And he stuck it out, you know, since early 2018, like January 2018 and has been reading and learning and has been able to accumulate and is now, he's not in the red at all because he's dollar cost average through the bear market. So I guess I'll do my shout out too. at Griffin Dave on Twitter.

Kudos Daveo for sticking it all out. But you know, this is what the bull runs do, right? Yeah, there's people that FOMO in and out, but then you kind of amassed this new group of people that get it and take the time to get it. And those become the new class of long-term hodlers. We've got a lot of class of 2017 people kicking around that have earned that OG tag.

and I expect many more, the FOMOers of 2021 and beyond will become the new class of eventual OGs. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I really respect what they have gone through because despite being put into like immediate a loss, financial loss and fear, they decided to educate themselves where it's much easier if you just bought at the right time. It goes up. It's like, you know, it's not that difficult. But shout out to the people that bought at the top, but then stayed the course and now have made money because of that. Well, they haven't made money.

They, you know, one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin and Bitcoin is the only money. Gold is also money. Feat currency is not money because it can't store value. So. Yeah. I like what I like what you said too about on those blow off tops. That's when, you know, the people that have been around for an extended period of time that have, you know, that have. you know, 99.9% suddenly of their, all of their assets are in this one single asset and they're

looking around. And you said, you talked about diversification. But it's very important to note, you're not talking about diversification into other shit coins. These people aren't diversifying. They're not going to go out and buy B Cash and XRP and Ethereum and all of this other stuff. they're looking and saying, okay, I'm in Bitcoin, which is like the king of this asset class and there's a whole bunch of other trash. They're not saying I better pick up some defy tokens. They're looking and saying, you know, maybe, maybe it's time for me to look at owning my home. Maybe it's time for me to look at, you know, stonks are kind of a little overvalued these days, given the money printing and the funneling directly into them. But, you know, people get to that

point at the peak of a bull run and they start saying, okay, I've got this one thing, which, you know, a lot of them will understand is going to be worth more long term. But at some point, you also live your life and you enjoy kind of the fruits of your labor. And there's no better asset, in my opinion out there to store the wealth of your labor. You know, when you when you store your labor in dollars, effectively people are, the dollars are stealing your time. Central banks are stealing your time. If you work, if you do an hour of labor and you get paid X amount of dollars for that hour, if you sit that dollar in savings, it's being diluted over time. It's being whittled the way.

you can purchase less and less. And so effectively, your time that you spent to earn that money is being stolen from you. And it's a great kind of thought experiment. Robert Breedlove wrote an article called Masters and Slaves of Money about this, how effectively fiat money and central banks are stealing people's time and in a way actually making people slaves in that they are stealing their time. through this inflation. And convincing them that it's in your interest that we steal 3% of your savings every year,

even though the number is even higher when it comes to assets. That's why people used to be fairly easily able to put down a down payment and then buy the house. But now because the assets have inflated so much, way faster than 2 to 3% per year, even that down payment is difficult for a lot of people. So, you know, central banks create the wealth divide. It's not capitalism. Capitalism has gotten a bad name for that. But it's redistribution of wealth, but not in the way that people think.

Like, people will say, well, that's a good thing if the rich are helping the poor. If that's your opinion, that's not what is even happening here. It's worse than that. It's redistributing wealth to the top. It's stealing money and time from the middle and lower class and then giving it and printing it and funneling it into the banks and the top earners which then funnel it into assets which middle and lower income people do not have further creating the wealth divide. People really don't get it. Absolutely. And really like once you wrap your head around that, I feel it becomes very obvious that so many of the problems in society today are created by. Fiat regime, central bank systems.

It's why we have this big pull towards socialism and taking from the rich and demonstrations going to Jeff Bezos' house. It's not because he made books cheaper through selling them on the internet. It's because people have a problem with him making so much money when they dilute fiat and his shares goes up a lot and they feel that it's further away from them. Back to the, just a quick note on your discussion or explanation of the short-term time preference or long-term time preference. I guess people who have long-term time preference, another way of explaining it is, you would

rather be financially independent 10 years from now than having a shining car. the next, you know, five years. It is another way of putting it. Personally, I haven't owned a car for about, I think, five years. I'm focused on the long term. That's where I have my end of ball. Yeah, I've been, it's funny because I started looking at my car being like, it's getting a little iffy. But I'm definitely sitting in a hoddlemobile right now. It's the, the, the Bitcoiners struggle where you're driving around if you drive you're in my city you really do need to drive um you're driving around in in a car that's not looking so hot start in you're sitting on enough money where you could buy a new car but you're like hmm I can wait this out and I can definitely wait

this out especially like everything feels so so similar to 2016 right now like the for me the writing is on the wall it it feels the exact same I'm seeing so many of the same things, so much of the same sentiment. Even just, even the price movement feels so similar to those last little bits of 2016 when people are like, well, what's it going to do? Like, it's uncanny. It's the predictable four-year repeating cycle. And that was my, you know, my focus in that article.

It actually started with, so on Eitor where I do this trade and people, can copy, but only if you're in United States, because that's the regulations, you know. Let's not give people too many choices. Let's be in any state. So that's how that works. So it started with a post I did days ago. A guy popped up from another country and had a question. And I knew when I saw that, that was a great question. And when I, when I saw that, I knew, okay, I'm going to have to explain this and spend some time on that. Like, his question was, so, you know, companies, performance like their profit is driving the price of companies like in general, which is correct, like on the long term. And so what is driving the price of Bitcoin? I'm like, okay, this is going

to be a long answer, but I also feel it's going to be something I want to share with my other followers and copyers and Eaters. So I made it into a main post there. Once I had, you know, posted it as a long post there. I was like, you know what? I haven't done a medium article for, I don't know a year or something let me I've already written it let me put it on medium so I put it on medium there you can put like you know some pictures and it becomes you know you can you know illustrate it a little bit and once I did that I thought let me share it on Twitter you know that I wrote this and then that got a little bit of activity and that's where you popped up and and that is leading to us now having this discussion here

which I'm thrilled about yeah it's it's I I'm really enjoying this conversation. I think now is an opportune time to kind of dive into what some of your projections regarding the four-year cycle in terms of price are. But just before we do that, I did want to touch on what you believe is the potential danger of your strategy if it goes a certain way. So maybe I'll let you talk about that first. Absolutely.

So as much as I'm like really, really convinced that this is a great strategy and it will help me to, you know, double the Satoshes I have or whatever, there is still that danger, which is really a positive problem, that, you know, Bitcoin sooner or later, in my opinion, will go into hyper-Bitconization. Fiat currency will collapse. And we are seeing the start of that. So the biggest danger I see to this strategy is that Bitcoin will not have that correction, that bare market where it was a good idea to have sold it on the top and then bought it cheap on the bottom, but just continues into, you know, like half a million dollar, like one million dollar, 10 million jol and infinity as fiat currency becomes totally irrelevant and nobody wants to hold that because it's, you know, the opposite side of hyper-Bitronization really is

hyperinflation, hyper-beaconization is just because we already have that better alternative. We don't need to go through a 30s style of depression. We already have the good money available now for people to start using. So that was something that I spent, you know, weeks contemplating, you know, will that happen? Like, you know, will we have that, you know, another bear market or will it just continue upwards and I was talking to it was like the main thing on my mind I was talking to you know all the you know the Bitcoin as that that I know and I was seeing the exact same pattern as what we've seen previously everyone was telling me like even so even also people saying that you know this time it's different this time it's going to go like not only

to the moon, but Mars and interstellar and, you know, out of this galaxy. The same people were also saying that, but, you know, I will sell 10% so I can pay off my mortgage or I will sell, you know, 40% above 200,000 because, you know, because all assets, like, you know, Bitcoin becomes, you know, too big, although it can't be, in my opinion, but too big a part of my total savings. so by that time I want to diversify to maybe, you know, a house or, you know, whatever, maybe buy a cow or get some stocks or something. So in my mind now, I have really no doubt that we will see the same patent as we saw

in 2017 where people that bought it significantly cheaper and all of a sudden have, you know, either financial independent type of money or near financial independent type of money will make the sound decision of saying that even though this is going to go eventually to the moon, I need to secure some of that, you know, wealth or savings for my family, for my kids, et cetera, and we'll, you know, put 10 to 50% of their Bitcoin on their market because they want to change their family's outlaw. And when I see that from pretty much all Bitcoiners that I know, even though I say, you know, I don't trade, I huddle for the long term, but I will still sell what I, you know, when we go above 100 or 200,000 because I want to, you know, just secure my family a little bit.

That's the same thing that happened in 2017 and the previous bull runs. The price has gone up to such an extent that it kind of is the smart thing. to do like rationally to not be like super super super exposed to one asset and and therefore i mean yeah i have no doubt that uh supply from o gs will over man demand as we've seen it time and time again before um and we will have i think a correction and we will have a bear market i think uh so last time the correction was 85% from 20,000 to 3,100 something. Each time pretty much the correction has gone a little bit less like one time early on it was 95% correction.

So it probably won't be 85% this time. It might be you know, who knows 75%, 70%, 80%. It's probably going to be more than 50% I think like definitely in my opinion. And so I do want to You know, with that little piece that I do trade this academic challenge with, I will sell, you know, when I deem that we are near the top, I'm not going to claim that I can sell at the top. Because the exact top, the exact day, the exact hour, I think is pretty much impossible. But if I can get near the top and take some profit and then buy back at half price or a third of the price, I'll be very much. very happy, you know, and at the same time also by that time, probably I'll get a car. Oh, by the way,

with cars, so before COVID, it's not like I didn't have a transport because you do need transport in Los Angeles as well. So I was renting a car, but I just don't want to put down a lot money on a car that is a liability that decreases in value. When alternatively, I could put in a Bitcoin that I consider will go way higher than it is now. Once this, COVID thing is though I'm, you know, I'll be good, or probably even end of this year I'll be getting a car. I do need transport. So anyway, fair enough. So what do you, so for this, honing in on this cycle, what are you looking at and thinking that you will sell beyond? Like, what's your price point that you're looking at as far as potential where you're, you're going to

start unloading, you know, your, your small portion of your trading stash. And when are you, you, hoping to buy back in? Like what's the trade basically that you're making here or the bet that you're making? Right. So it's definitely important to say that this is a moving target. And several times throughout just this year, 2020, I have changed, you know, because I keep, this is something I'm so passionate about it, as you can probably tell. I think about this every day. I think about it for hours every day. I look at different like relationships between. between the inflation rate, the price, the speed of the inflation rate, the speed of the price, all these things.

And so it is moving targets. The take I have on it right now is the bull runs, first the timing, the bull runs do take longer time. And again, I believe that that's because stock to flow, as much as it's accelerating, it's not accelerating as fast as it has done. So that pressure to price higher because the supply is less compared to stock is a little bit less. It's still there strongly, but it's just a little bit less.

So the last bull run took one and a half years. The one before took one year. But I see a lot of people saying that it took one and a half years last time. So I'm looking at a one and a half year bull run. But I think you need it to look at what's the development been in this through history. and they take longer time. And I think there's a good reason, as I just explained, the speed at which Dr. Flo is going up has changed.

So I expect it will take longer than one and a half years. So I'm not saying necessarily the end of 2021. I think it's more likely to be Q1 of 2022. It could be December 2021. I don't know. And also it depends on outside factors, the speed of fiat currency dilute. and you know COVID economy and everything but I'm thinking a bull run top

FOMO peak blow off top Q1 2022 and looking historically at also at the way the price has reacted to this supply being cutting half with the halving I think that we will see a top above 200,000 I don't I'm not necessarily saying it's going to go to 288,000 that the stock to flow model is saying is the medium expecting price. It might do that. It may even go to 400,000 or more. But right now, so when you dollar cost average in to Bitcoin, you're doing a great thing to yourself because you're, you know, you're averaging that price you purchase it with. I'll be doing the same with this, you know, the smaller hotel position that I have on the exiting. So I, as I look at it right now,

I'll expect to start selling at 200,000. And then depending on, again, I will look at the steepness of the curve, how fast, you know, I will, every single day I will look at. So how many days right now has it taken us to do the last 100% of value increase? If the, we spoke about it earlier, the 16 days, the nine days, the five days, if that is to develop at the same sort of fact, then because 5 to 9 and 1916 is almost the same factor. I'm not saying that this surely will be the same factor again, but it puts us around 28 days of 100% growth.

When we reach 28% days, which I expect to be after 200,000, I mean, so those are the two things that, you know, 28 days and $200,000, which one comes first. That's when I will start taking profit. I won't be selling everything at once. I will be starting to sell. And then depending on the whole situation at that stage, if it's 5%, 10%, 40%, and then I'll dollar cost average out,

trying to get as much of the top as possible. I don't want to be the person in the last bull run that sold at 8,000 and then bought it back at 6,000 a year later. That doesn't give me a lot of profit. I want to get as close to that 20,000, you know, if we compared to last time as possible and get as close to the 3,100 as possible when I re-buy. You can't get that right. I don't expect to get that right. But if I can double what I have on this trade, you know, that's that's my ambition. That's what I hope to be able to do.

I love I love that you're coming that had this from the position of not maximum dollars, but maximum Bitcoin. And you're saying, you're like, you're like I, okay, What I'm hoping to do here is it's not it's not the dollar value that you're looking to cash out. It's technically you're you're just looking to accumulate more Bitcoin with these given cycles and and just figuring out where that lies. Now again, not for everybody, but if somebody wants to play it at least this is kind of a medium longer term outlook as opposed to like I'm going to, you know, I'm banking on these day-to-day moves with Bitcoin. And you're aware of the potential that it just you don't get that opportunity, but you've allocated a small portion for that. Now, given that, you had like a, I'm guessing, so you're saying you're hoping to double what you're trading with. The trade position, yeah.

And so given a $200,000 exit in and around there, what are you looking at a buyback, 100K in below? Right. Yes. So I'm again, all right, so let's take the timing first. Again, if we look at history, as I mentioned early on in our talk here, the uptrend towards the halving starts earlier and earlier historically, which means I'm, I will it be expecting the same. At the same time when the bull run before that bear market starts or goes for a longer period of time, then I don't think that the bear market ending off in a, you know, capitulation, everyone throwing in the towel and leverage positions on different exchanges, you know,

being stopped out and the market being flooded with Bitcoin and the price knocks down, like in 10 minutes, it goes, down 20%. Then I don't think that bear market will take 12 months. It will take less. I haven't run enough of the numbers. on that yet, but like top of my mind, you know, it might, I'm thinking, you know, it might take eight months, it might take seven months, but it will take less, I'm sure, because the bull run is longer and the uptrend for the next one starts earlier. So let's say seven, eight months. And yes,

because Bitcoin historically on these bull run, like the drops it has after these massive runups has been, you know, 95%, 90%, 80%, 85%. I'll be looking to, you know, I may not sell the top, but if I sell everything at 200 and it goes to 240, I'll be looking at the 240 and say, you know, we'll probably go down at least 65, 70%. And then I'll start to a dollar cost average in at probably like 75, 70% correction from that top.

So, and right now I think that's below 100,000. But if Bitcoin goes to 400,000 before it crashes, the target will be to buy back below 200,000 or something, 150,000. So that will all change. And I won't necessarily pull the trigger at 200,000. It all depends of how we get there, the speed at which we get there. Yeah. And yeah. Yeah.

So now that we've kind of fleshed out what your ideas are around this current kind of having cycle, it's interesting. it's interesting at towards the end of the article you got into you know you said this is this is a potential for me to add to my bitcoin stack and i'm willing to accept that risk but you also say that you know over time you believe that that bitcoin is the place to be and that it's going to start to take over a number of different markets now obviously we know that bitcoin is aiming to be uh you know like a store of value to replace fiat currencies. So that's a potential market. But you go into some other stuff there.

So let's talk about the markets that Bitcoin can take a bite of, put some numbers behind that, but also discuss why. And then we'll finish off with like your long term like, hey, this is a potential, a real potential. Right. So let me do a little bit of lead in to that. As you mentioned, first of all, in case Bitcoin doesn't have another bear market,

in case it goes to the moon and to my target that we'll get to, I'll still have 90% plus minus of what I have. So it'll be a very positive problem if that happens. And if I have to say goodbye to 10%, so be it, I'm just so convinced it's going to happen that I'm willing to take that risk. And another thing that gives me confidence in my ability to like, like, get these things right is, like, from, from, so I started an internet company in 96 because I believe, this is obvious going to be a huge thing. Apart from my own company, 97, I bought stock in Yahoo. In 99, I bought stock in Amazon. And then in January 99, when Google had been online, for only four and a half months, right?

There were 10 employees. Because I held Yahoo stock, and I was like, you know, reading news, trying to stay on top of things. And I saw this thing, Google, that were doing really well on search with their new algorithm. I thought this could be a danger to my Yahoo investment,

which it also turned out to be. So I wrote an email, I believe it was the 10th of January, at 1999 when Google had been online for only four and a half months, they were so young that on the bottom of their website, they had an email address. You could write to Google and they would reply. I wrote an email to them saying that, hey, is it possible in any way to buy equity, buy stock, by ownership in Google? Because I think, you know, you guys are looking at something very interesting here. And I got a reply back saying, sorry, we just got funding, but I'll let you know

if any future opportunities arise. And that email was from Sergei Bryn, the co-founder of Google. So, you know, I like to think that I'm able to, you know, pick, you know, a winning bet early on. The reason also I mentioned it is that to me, Bitcoin is even more obvious than Google was in 1999. This is such a no-brainer. But yeah, so coming into your question, and now I spoke so much around that and downside roads. So you were talking about your question was the end target, right? Yeah, end target, but also like let's start with the markets that it's looking to potentially take over. So obviously currency, but let's put some numbers behind that.

You put me back on track. So if you look at the properties. of money, then which throughout history, whatever commodity or item that has performed best on those properties as money, has taken over as money of the world. Like initially, it was some rare seashells in China were doing best as a money commodity. Gold came along and actually performed better, was a better money in many ways than rare seashells. One obvious one is if you have it in your pocket and you sit down, your money is ruined if it's seashell, but gold can, you know, outlast you're sitting on it. But gold has some disadvantages to Bitcoin. Bitcoin, like just a few examples. Let's say you live in an oppressive regime. You want to get out. You know, maybe you own, you know, five pieces of real estate. You sell them. You want to take your family savings and go to a new country, come to America, whatever you want to do.

With gold or fiat currency, good luck. The fiat currency, they can find it if they go through your hand luggage or wherever you have it. Gold will trigger the metal detector. Bitcoin, you can bring not only on a hardware wallet, but you can memorize like 12 words and you carry like $100 million worth of value in your memory only. You go to that new place, you create a wallet and you put in the 12. words, which is deceit, and you brought all your Bitcoin with you. Now, if you forget, because you only memorize it, of course, you can always go back where you have it, you know, written down

in code somewhere. So I just want to say that Bitcoin is by far the best money. If you're in, we can go into more details, but, you know, this is some of it. And therefore, I believe strongly that Bitcoin will take over as money of the world, no doubt about it. Fiat currency in the entire world today has a market cap of around 100 trillion US dollars. This calculation, and that is including gold, which is acting as to store value, this calculation was done before Fiat when, you know, trillions of trillions of dollars have been printed further, you know, starting March and after that. I don't even try to stay on top of that number anymore because the dilution happens so fast. So let's just take the 100 trillion nice round number.

That, I think, is obvious. Bitcoin will replace that and become that one money of the world. And then furthermore, because Bitcoin is actually money and not fiat currency, it will also be competing on the store value market. And that is what money is supposed to do. That's what gold did. It also acted as a store of value and still has done today because some people do understand that be it is,

being diluted and it's not a good thing. And so today when fiat currencies by being diluted as fast as it is, and in general, you know, also before now, people have been buying things that can store their value, can kind of safeguard them against fiat currency dilution, money printer going brr, etc. it seems obvious that stocks and real estate especially have been areas where, you know, you escape fiat currency dilution. And I think it becomes even clearer now where this much fiat has been printed this year. Economy is doing terrible. People are in unemployment. Yet real estate prices rise. Stock prices rise, despite a lot of companies going down, despite a lot of not going down, but doing poorly. despite a lot of people not being able to afford a house anymore, those prices go up because value needs to secure itself.

And then when you look at the total of the stock market and real estate where, well, obviously, it does serve a purpose, but right now it's valued as serving a purpose and then storing value for people that don't want to have their finances diluted. So that value, you could easily argue that the store of value part of real estate and stocks and rare collectibles, rare items, etc., easily is $300 trillion. If I get it wrong plus minus 50 or $100, it doesn't really matter. But let's just say it's $300 trillion. Then in my opinion, that means that Bitcoin will go in, compete and win a market of $100 trillion.

dollar fiat currency 300 trillion dollars store value market globally and that's a 400 trillion dollar US dollar market cap that i'm looking at for for bitcoin which would put the you know approximately 20 million a bitcoin ever outstanding at about 20 million dollars each this is what i really honestly believe is where bitcoin is headed now at that time which i believe will happen in this decade decade. This decade. Oh, absolutely. I'll get to that. I can, you know, give you my arguments for why I believe that. But, but that's where I see Bitcoin is going. By the time that happens, of course, Bitcoin will not be priced $20 million. It also will not be priced $100 million because hyperinflation is what has happened on the other side of that coin. And because

fear has become so useless, essentially Bitcoin will be priced in infinity. So, so, yeah, you know, I'm saying $20 million in today's buying power is where I see one Bitcoin. And the reason, all right, so the timing of that, I believe that the bear market we're looking at and that that is most likely to be the last one, but it could be the second last one. But I think it's most likely that this bear market that will come, you know, somewhere past 200,000, likely going down below 100,000. That I see definitely will happen. But then the next leg up, you know, where in the next halving bull run, Bitcoin following the price that I think everything points to it will, will put. after the 2024 having, by the end of 2025, early 2026, Bitcoin will be around easily, in my opinion, you know,

it's not financial advice, but easily be $2, $3 million per Bitcoin. And the thing is that, and this is where I believe that the stock to flow model will break to the upside, is because when Bitcoin reaches this level, it's just become such a joconaut in the world of money where all of a sudden it's not oh it's at 2% of global money so it's doing its own little bull run and bear market thing and that's having cycle but when bitcoin gets to like two three million dollars per bitcoin we're talking about all of a sudden bitcoin has become you know like by far the biggest money in the world sitting on you know maybe 40% maybe more of total global money value. I think that will be the breaking point where the public conscience and media coverage will talk about Bitcoin has become finally so valuable that it actually has a direct impact on consumer prices and will create, you know, if it goes out and take half the value of fiat currency, those fiat currency prices are going to double.

So it's going to be all of a sudden very clear that Bitcoin is eating value from fiat currency. Right now, even though Bitcoin is going off and it's priced, you know, higher price, fiat currency terms in terms of global money, that thing that's going to happen after the 2024 having, all of a sudden it's becoming, you know, such a big part of global money that is actually, you know, Gresham's law starts to take effect and push out, you know, the poor money, the poor fiat currency, making it worth less. Prices go up in that. And that's, I think, is going to be that trick a moment for even people that today,

you tell them about Bitcoin and they go, ah, it's, you know, criminal activity, money laundering, et cetera, drugs, Tara, whatever, which is all just government propaganda. But it's going to get to the level where even people that right now are skeptical about Bitcoin, will, it will be obvious to them that, look, prices are growing up in fiat currency. Bitcoin is not only, you know, a great investment, but it's the only safe money to own. So I think, and that, you know, I'm just estimating, you know, early 2026, everyone, you know, really a majority of the population globally will, you know, run to the door, the exit of, the exit of the Fiat room and to enter that narrow door into the Bitcoin money room.

And that will be the hyper-bitronization inflicting point where there's no turning back and Fiat just collapses like finally, fully. And Bitcoin takes over as money of the world. I don't think that Fiat can survive Bitcoin coming in and taking 40% of global monetary value. I think that will be the deathbed of the fiat. And that's why, you know, because that price logically will come after the 2024 having, I also believe that this event will happen, you know, in the bull market coming after that, let's say 2026.

And therefore, that price target of $20 million per Bitcoin, I think, has a good chance of happening by the end of 20,26. It will be bank runs in 2026, in my opinion. People don't want to have Fiat anymore. They want to get out of the Fiat and just buy Bitcoin and the gray market, on the black market, on the white market, just get out of Fiat and get the hands on Bitcoin. Those moments when, you know, if that comes to fruition where there's this mass exodus, it's funny because up until, I mean, for 11 going on 12 years now, we've been measuring Bitcoin in dollars.

And at that point, that measuring stick becomes obsolete. And Bitcoin becomes a measuring stick for value at that point. It becomes the only reliable one in the room. So it's just, it's this weird inversion where it's like, wait, I used to discern value through dollars. But as the acceleration of inflation and money printing continue, use. It's like your, it's like your measuring stick is shrinking and you can't quite measure. Wait, I thought I got more with this. And meanwhile, the measuring stick of Bitcoin right now is growing, but it gets to a point where it starts growing a little bit more slowly once it captures enough

of global value. But there's a long way to go between now and then. At that point, when it captures enough global value, it becomes a pretty damn good consistent measurement of value. with which to base, you know, your decisions, your economic decisions on. It's just that transition period sounds like it's going to be rocky as hell and a little crazy. And it'll be interesting to see how we deal with that. So I think that when we reach that, and I think that's as a why, like anyone like me that believes that Bitcoin will take over as the money of the world. I believe we all agree that, you know, Bitcoin is not going to be like a great investment at that time. Like once you reach

$20 million, it's not going up 100% every year. It will have already eaten all that monetary solar value, you know, value. And the value of Bitcoin will go up every year together with the GDP growth. Like as per, you know, as we can produce more goods, the money that can buy that good also become more valuable. And already now, I mean, I use Bitcoin as a unit of account and have been doing that for a long time because I'm very focused on this and I believe it's the future and it's how I, you know, value my savings. So for instance, I looked at, there's this kind of a secondhand car I really want to get. I saw it on an auction. I kind of wanted to participate. I saw the price of the car go to two and a half Bitcoin. I'm like, I'm not spending

two and a half Bitcoin in this car because next year I can buy it for less than one Bitcoin, right? Hold your horses and as you know you want that car, but you know, chill, don't be too passionate about a car. Folks, you know, be passionate about Bitcoin, wait. So I'm already using Bitcoin as what I measure the price of something in. And yeah. Yeah. It is for me the measurement. One thing I would like to also add to this discussion because people are saying that, oh, you know, central banks are good because we can print money. We can stimulate the economy.

Like that's the Keynesian way, which still is like the majority of people's way of thinking. Jeff Booth wrote a book, The Price of Tomorrow, where he's talking about, yeah, let's do it. Let's do a plot for that. There we go. Shut up, Jeff Booth. You need to read this. Honestly, if you're watching this or listening to this, you need to. read The Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth to get a better idea of deflation.

But anyways, Anders, I'll let you continue. Yeah. So what I want to say, because when I heard him first time on a YouTube video somewhere, it clicked for me and I thought, all right, that makes a lot of sense what he's saying. And it totally speaks to me as a Bitcoin as, you know, we want sound money. We don't want this, you know, fake money that is losing value. And then I decided to look into it a little bit more because I heard someone else mentioning that we actually had a really good period of growth in United States back in the

late 19th century. And so I looked into that, I did a little bit of research. And in the period from 1873 to 1892, a period of 20 years, was the fastest productivity growth ever in United States history. Productivity went up from an index of 30 to, I believe, was 79. So it almost tripled in 20 years. And so in this period, you have, you know, people's salary increased, you know, slightly year over year.

But at the same time, the value of that salary, and this was when we were on sound money, gold was the money, the value of that money that they received also increased in in values so you had that situation where the middle class can prosper we can you know eliminate the poor because even if you're working as a you know a cashier somewhere you got a minimum salary job your your salary is going to increase year or year but the value of that money that you're receiving is also going to increase so everyone you know a huge majority will have a good time and you know that'll be that abundance as Jeff Booth is talking about, instead of the current situation.

So I just wanted to plot that way of thinking, you know, I really want to end the Federal Reserve, to be honest. Yeah, I think that's a good, I think that those are some good parting thoughts. It's almost like a positive look towards the future, even though we've got some rocky times ahead in that transition period. I think in the end, everybody ends up much better off in a sound money environment. with like a gradual kind of slow deflationary money where your labor and the effort that you put into contributing to society is actually preserved and not wooded all the way over time.

So yeah, I think that's a good way to kind of wrap it there. Now, Anders, if you could please, of course, I'll link to anything that you want down below, but let people know where they can find you, whether it be YouTube, Twitter, medium, all of that, go take it away. Sure. So yeah, I'll send you the couple of my links so you can put them in the YouTube description, but on Twitter I am at Anders underscore, so that's A-N-D-E-R-S- underscore. On YouTube, I'll send you my link. It's, you know, slash user slash Kaka, I think, K-A-R-G-A-R-D.

Anyways, you'll get the links. It'll be easier. There I started producing, you know, I produce a couple of videos every week, not every day like you do. Hats off for your productivity. And also I'll send you my E-Toro trading profile, where, you know, I'm lucky that so far this strategy has panned out well. I only started there just less than a year ago,

late October last year and already this has gotten me to second most copied investor on on E-Tor in US and so I'll yeah so I use actually that profile to I do I post a lot there I put some of you know the relevant videos I put them there I do a lot like a right you know post to explain what I'm doing and explain Bitcoin and you know pushing this narrative and I'll send you that URL because Because if people are in US and if they believe in this trade, they can allocate money to copy what I do. So it copies in real time. You can just say, here's my, I don't know, $1,000, you know, lean back.

And then whatever I do, that $1,000 copies that in real time. And it doesn't cost anything to do that. The only cost is the same cost that I have that when you make a trade, there's always a trading fee. But as I explained earlier, I don't trade a lot. Right now, I'm 100% exposed to Bitcoin, and I will be 95% to 100% exposed to Bitcoin for the I foresee, like, the next one and a half years. Then that's when the trading activity will happen. So let me see. Is there any other links I want to pluck?

Twitter, YouTube, Medium. I'll link the Medium article. And then, of course, your YouTube. Awesome. Well, Anders, I've got to say I had a lot of fun with this chat. I hope you did too. Absolutely. Thank you so much for having me on because, as you may be able to hear that, this is my passion.

I can hear, you know, it's also something you're passionate about. Bitcoin is the number one passion. And I love talking about this. So, you know, thank you so much for reaching out and having me on. I really appreciate it any time you want me back. I'll be happily coming back. definitely you're also coming on my channel in the near future yeah yeah i'll anytime let me know i will make it all i will make my way over there but uh yeah i i really enjoyed this guys uh go

check out anders i will have all links to his relevant stuff uh down below and you can go follow him and um yeah hope you guys enjoyed this let me know in the comments and be sure to share this video and or audio around depending on where you're listening or watching thanks a lot guys Thank you guys so much for watching and or listening. If you're here on YouTube, please do hit, like, subscribe, and share. All of those things really, really do help. So please do them. Spread the word if you enjoyed this conversation.

Also be sure to check out Anders on his social media and on YouTube. If you want to help out the show in another way, you can hit up the sponsors. I mentioned down below that was Led and get that 25 free bucks if you check them out. Crypto Cloaks, Code BTC sessions for five free. off and of course the cobo vault check them out there's a link in the show notes and you can retweet the show to possibly win one of those cobo tablet pluses to store your seed phrase and if you really loved what you saw you can always drop me a bitcoin lightning network tip at my tippin dot me page that is t i p p p im dot me slash at btc sessions with that i am out have yourselves a wonderful day a wonderful

evening wherever you are and I'll see you next time for your daily session.