BTC Sessions - BTC Dump: Is It Short Lived, FinCEN Files, Saylor on BTC Dominance EP098

Episode Date: September 21, 2020

SUPPORT THE SHOW: LEDN offers Bitcoin backed loans – Sign up and get $50 free https://bit.ly/32QSFdH Get Wasabi wallet and enjoy your Bitcoin privacy https://wasabiwallet.io/ Buy a Cobo Vault to secure your Bitcoin! https://bit.ly/2GgMFlH Cobo Vault Tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnRjvZKulrA Crypto Cloaks: Get the BEST Bitcoin swag out there https://www.cryptocloaks.com/shop/ If you value my work and would like to send me a tip, they are always appreciated! LIGHTNING tips: https://tippin.me/@BTCsessions Join my Telegram channel! https://t.me/btc_sessions SHOW RESOURCES: Bitcoin price dump: minor pullback or more pain to come? https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-ether-stock-markets-sink Miner selling can’t stop the bull run https://cointelegraph.com/news/profit-taking-bitcoin-miners-wont-stop-the-next-bull-run-on-chain-analyst Average BTC transaction hits $129K https://decrypt.co/42400/bitcoins-average-transaction-value-returns-to-2017-levels Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor jumps on the maximalist train https://cointelegraph.com/news/microstrategy-ceo-seems-to-embrace-bitcoin-maximalism Bitcoin dominance website https://bitcoindominance.com/ Unchained Capital serves companies looking to save Bitcoin as reserve asset https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-business-accounts-unchained-capital FinCEN files show banks launder $2 TRILLION DOLLARS https://decrypt.co/42448/fincen-files-secret-documents-detail-failures-of-global-banking-industry New drop of Citadel21 https://www.citadel21.com/

Wasabi wallet and fairly private. What's up everyone? I'm Ben with the BTC sessions and this is your daily session. Hodel their Bitcoin. Before we dive in, shout out to sponsors of the show, leaden.io. This is where you can use your Bitcoin for a variety of different services. The first thing I ever used to theirs was their Bitcoin-backed loans. This is where you can use your Bitcoin as collateral to get a Canadian or US dollar loan. So if you need to get your hands on dollars, but you don't want to sell your Bitcoin because one, that's taxable, and two, you may be worried about buying back in at a higher price,

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is retweet this show on Twitter and tag myself and Kobo and just let us know where you want one. You have to be in Canada, the US or the EU. But other than that, no other limitations. Retweet, let us know. With that, let's dive into the show. So Bitcoin Price has taken a bit of a dive overnight. Now, is this a catastrophic dump, or is this just a pullback before further upside? Well, I mean, it's anybody's guess, but we're going to read into some of the sentiments and some of the stuff that's going on right now. So, prices for both Bitcoin and Ether, who cares, fell sharply in the past 24 hours

after a drop in global equities. Top cryptocurrency by market value has traded around 10,400 at present. time I think is just below that right now, losing around 4.5% over the previous 24 hours, while Ethereum lost over 8% over the same time period. So about double. The market correction in the top two cryptocurrencies came after the U.S. stock market fell to a two month low amid fears on further pandemic-related issues. The German DAX and the UK's Futsi indexes were also down by around 4% on the day. The Hangseng Index began the week with a 2% decline. Throughout 2020, we have consistently seen a strong correlation between crypto markets and traditional finance markets

and the crypto market's response to the drop in the Dow Jones of around 2.2%. This morning has reaffirmed this correlation according to a note from Glass Node, a crypto analytics firm on Monday. the data site warned investors to keep an eye out on the stock market for further impact. Yeah, there has been correlation, but again, it's correlated until it's not. And again, it seems like in these massive, panicky sell-offs in the stock market, everybody's looking for liquidity. So if everybody's looking for liquidity, they're going to sell any assets that they need to cover any of their obligations. We saw that in March, although much more pronounced than we're seeing right now, when the stock market fell off a cliff, and we saw Bitcoin fall by like 40, 50% in a day.

But we're also up from that point. We're also up higher than we were for most of the year, other than when we went up around 12,400 in the recent weeks and have since dropped from then. But significant recovery from that sell-off. So if anybody was picking up sats on that drop, they've done quite well for themselves. Now, I did want to show one thing here, and this is over on coin market cap.

And so this tracks, it's kind of the go-to for a lot of people if they're tracking more than just Bitcoin. But again, you can see the 4% drop in Bitcoin. In fact, maybe I'll give this a quick refresh just to make sure we're somewhat accurate. Okay, there we go. So, yeah, 3.8%. So we're coming back a little bit here.

You can still see Ethereum down about 7.6, XRP down 5.6, Bitcoin Cash, 4.6. So there's a lot. But what I want to do here is I want to price things in Bitcoin to see where you're sitting in alts. You probably got a little bit wrecked here. You can see some single digit. You can see some double digit drops across the board, depending on what you were sitting in. Some of these were a lot more pronounced earlier. you saw some, you know, 11, 13, 14, you still do see some of that across a lot of the, the defy tokens. They're taking double-digit hits.

So if you're sitting in most other things other than the stable coin, you probably got a good punch to the gut. You know, I'm not super worried because I'm not trying to trade this stuff. So I'm just happy to sit on and accumulate Bitcoin over time. but if you're trying to trade in and out of this shit, yeah, it can be rough. Now, on a more positive note, there's an article here from Coin Telegraph,

and it's called Profit Taking Bitcoin Miners Won't Stop the Next Bull Run. And so they say that Bitcoin miners sold substantial amounts of Bitcoin throughout the last two months, but on-chain analysts believe it won't stop the next bull run. Historical data shows some miners began to sell Bitcoin at the end of July, leading to increased selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.

Eventually, the dominant cryptocurrency fell steeply from mid-August, according to recording a 13% fall, and since then, Bitcoin has struggled to retake the $12,000 mark. According to Crypto Quant CEO Kiyyung-Ju, continued selling by miners might not be enough to prevent a bull run. On-chain data analysis firms closely observed that movements of miners and whales because of the they hold significant amounts of bitcoin willie woo and on-chain analysts explained that miners represent one of the two external sources

of selling pressure for bitcoin he previously said there's only two unmatched sell pressures on the market one miners to dilute the supply and sell onto the market and two the exchanges who tax the traders and sell onto the market when miners start selling their bitcoin holdings typically they took cover expenses, it could trigger a correction in the cryptocurrency market. For instance, from August 17th to September 5th, the price of Bitcoin dropped from $12.486 to $9,813. During that time, several whales sold Bitcoin right at the 12K mark, and the same behavior was observed amongst miners. The selling pressure coming from miners and whales noticeably has been attributed to the current crypto market, lump, but in the long term, Key explained it is not enough to stop a prolonged bull run. If miners abruptly

sell a significant amount of Bitcoin, it could cause a severe correction as a small price movement could trigger liquidations from heavily leveraged traders. Hence, even a relatively small sell-off by miners could theoretically cause massive price swings. Key says the intensity of the sell-off from miners was not strong enough to halt future bull runs. And the quote here, Minor Update, some miners began selling at the end of July, but I think in the long run,

miners didn't sell enough. Bitcoin large enough to stop the next bull run. According to Byte Tree, the net inventory of Bitcoin miners declined by 125 Bitcoin per week in the last 12 weeks. The data indicates that miners sold approximately $1.362 million dollars worth of Bitcoin per week atop the Bitcoin they mined

and sold. So they're selling a surplus of Bitcoin above that of which they've been buying, indicating that they're diving into their reserves of Bitcoin that they've been stocking up on. Now, as key emphasized, the data shows that miners sold substantial amounts of

Bitcoin, but not in amounts that were irregular to normal behavior. So all in all, it kind of seems like, yeah, miners are diving a little bit into the reserve, but those reserves only go so far, at which point the default selling pressure is more or less coming from whatever is being mined that day. So we'll see how long this goes on for. Now, on the, I guess, more positive side of things as well, Bitcoin's average transaction value,

the average amount or dollar amount being transacted on the Bitcoin network in each individual transaction has returned to 2017 levels. And this kind of blew my mind the numbers here. As the bull run continues, well, whether or not it's bull, I'm still bullish as hell, but some may interpret it otherwise. As the bull run continues, the average value of a Bitcoin transaction is at its highest level in over a year, and active addresses have sustained levels close to all-time highs. The average value of Bitcoin sent in a single transaction has reached its highest level. and more than a year, hitting a peak of more than $129,000 on September 17th, so just a few base back, according to blockchain data provider BitInfo charts.

The last time Bitcoin's average transaction value rose above $121,000 was in August of 2019 when one or a few massive transactions pushed the total to more than $812,000 on average. And that was an anomaly. of a Bitcoin transaction hasn't been this high since late 2017, when Bitcoin's price hit its all-time high of just below 20 grand. The number there kind of blows my mind. The average amount of Bitcoin or dollar value of a single transaction is $129 grand right now. So if you felt like you didn't have much Bitcoin before,

if you if you average out the value of all the transactions going through the network right now a hundred and twenty nine grand is the average meaning that there are a lot more people transacting more than $129,000 and and those smaller transactions are not making up a lot of the network so um wow impressive that there's that much money being pushed around day to day So anyways, let's move on a little bit here. Micro Strategy CEO. So Michael Saylor, he's been, obviously we talked about him last week. He's been in the news all over the place.

They bought up a ton of Bitcoin, $425 million worth of Bitcoin for their company treasury because they thought that sitting on $500 million of cash was like sitting on a melting ice cube. So he's really done the rounds. He's been on all of the major podcasts. I've listened to a couple of the interviews. had a lot of fun. And yeah, the one with Pomp was really, really great. Regardless, he seems to be quite the Bitcoin maximalist.

And I was saying that last week that he really seems to understand kind of the ethos of why Bitcoiners think the way they do. And he's done all this in like a year. He's really quickly latched on and consumed a lot of information to get to the point where he is right now. So I just wanted to touch a little bit on this article here. So Microstrategy's decision to use Bitcoin as its primary reserve currency has Michael Saylor seemingly favoring the asset over altcoins.

In a September 20th tweet, the business intelligent company's CEO stated that he considers Bitcoin to be a crypto asset network unlike tokens like Ethereum or stable coins, which you've referred to as crypto applica. networks. Posting a chart from analytics site Bitcoin dominance, the CEO claimed that the coin's dominance has advanced from a low of 71.05% on December 20th of 2017 to 93.57% today. And his suite says, when considering network dominance in the crypto industry, I find it clarifying to separate crypto assets networks like Bitcoin from crypto application networks like Ethereum and stable coins. Bitcoin dominance has advanced from a low of 71.05% to 93.57% today.

So he goes on. However, Saylor does intentionally, he is selective when it comes to his data, which was in the tweet there anyways, right? Dominance fingers do not include initial coin offering, so ICOs, or stable coins, only include coins using proof of work that are attempting to be money, which, I mean, if you're looking at dominance in a certain industry, don't you want the qualities of the industry? So let's say ICOs were legitimate, which they aren't. But let's say you were talking about what ICOs were trying to be, which is effectively like owning a piece of a company that is building something. That would be like measuring Bitcoin dominance versus all stocks. it doesn't exactly make sense to have a market dominance against everything that people are putting money into everywhere.

I mean, I get you could do that, but I think it's more apt to compare Bitcoin to reserve currencies or to gold or in this specific metric to cryptocurrencies that are trying to be money because you're trying to determine which money. money is likely to take most or all of the pie. And so, yeah, that's, anyways, I want to show you the website he was looking at. So this is Bitcoin Dominance.com. And again, as stated, it only includes the coins that are trying to be money that are proof of work. And it further explains why exclude ICOs, why exclude stable coins, why only proof of work. Why does this matter? And why is there an option to include or disable Ethereum, which he did exclude Ethereum. So like here, you can see we're at like 78.8%. But if he exclude Ethereum,

it's 93.75. So the reason for excluding Ethereum, if somebody was looking at this, is, again, the claim that Ethereum is not looking to be money. It's looking to be kind of like this, this Well, originally it was like the decentralized world computer, but that narrative has very much shifted over time. But regardless of the fact, Ethereum is looking to move to proof of stake. And if and when that happens, you can see at the bottom here, they say, if or when Ethereum moves to proof of state consensus algorithm, it may be removed from this index entirely. They talk about why they're only doing proof of work. They say Bitcoin dominance only includes proof of work coins in this instax because so far, proof of work is the only consensus algorithm known to be able to keep the network decentralized.

Decentralization is important because if it cannot be achieved, then there is no improvement over the current system of centralized banking. This is a pretty good reason in my opinion. But I mean, let me know what you think about that. Either way, even if you include Ethereum in here and you just look at the coins trying to be money, which I think is probably a good thing to do to measure how far ahead one coin has over the other, it's pretty stark here that Bitcoin is a huge chunk, is a majority chunk of everything in crypto, trying to be money.

So I kind of summed up my thoughts on how quickly Michael Saylor arrived at these considerations. And so I said, it turns out when you're researching to justify a $425 million capital allocation, you can bypass the seemingly inevitable shit coin phase entirely. I was thinking about why this might be, and I realized a lot of crypto people just kind of accidentally stumbled into money, though through what it was effectively DGEN gambling. You know, some people just happen to have some coins early on or some Bitcoin early on that they weren't, they didn't really know why they bought it. They just, it was a curiosity.

Those, from what I've seen, those people tend to not have put thought into it or value it and therefore are kind of not super aligned with the value proposition of it. Anyways, moving on through my tweets here. contrast this with an individual that has spent decades building businesses and holding on to assets. A lot more thought goes into where that hard-earned money is parked. If you're bad with money and win the lottery, you're likely to squander that wealth if you don't get wise and educate yourself quick. If you come into money through building something of value, you're more adept at assessing value. My guess is that the Michaels of the world are already allocating into Bitcoin. The lottery winners or the uneducated slash honored wealth individuals of the world will pile into a basket of shit coins near the latter part of this bull market.

I do genuinely think that's going to be the course we take. You're going to see a bunch of Michael Saylars that are going to come out at some point in the next few months, six months, year and say, hey, listen, we've already been stockpiling some Bitcoin as part of our treasury. and it'll come up in quarterly reports for various companies. Then as shit gets rolling and kind of the hype train gets going, you're going to see people that haven't done the work but see the trend that are saying, well, maybe we miss the boat on this, maybe we can get in on some of this other stuff, and they're going to allocate hard into like whatever basket of diversified crypto

they happen to get, they'll probably be saved by the fact that they have some Bitcoin in there, but they're going to get wrecked on those other shit coins when the next reckoning of the bear market comes along. So that's kind of my guess. I could be wrong, but I think the same thing that happened to a lot of people that diversified back in 2017 is now going to happen on a grander scale with companies. hopefully less so or like less people will put more consideration into it but the ones that just jump on the train are going to get wrecked for sure anyways kind of segueing from the micro strategy stuff uh i really like what unchained capital is doing here

because they're seeing the trend of companies looking at moving into bitcoin as a reserve asset and they're helping with that so uh this article from CoinDest, the micro strategy effect, this firm is helping businesses save in Bitcoin. So, the COVID-19 pandemic and its accompanying monetary policy have caused a surge in demand for Bitcoin and now companies are eyeing digital gold to protect their treasuries from cash depreciation. Announce Monday, Bitcoin Financial Services firm Unchained Capital has released an advanced business account specifically targeting firms that not only want to hold Bitcoin, but want to handle their own private keys

rather than rely on some third-party crypto-custodian in keeping with the ethos of not your keys, not your Bitcoin. The impetus to launch this service is straightforward and simple. It's no longer just folks in the cryptosphere who are worried about the printing of money, negative interest rates and the like. Just look at micro-strategy's recent moves. So I'm going to jump down a little bit.

Now, there. So this is Parker Lewis talking about how they're kind of dealing with this. We have companies that you wouldn't expect, like your local bakery or your local liquor store that hold Bitcoin in treasury. Lewis told CoinDesk. They are not Bitcoin-centric businesses, but they hold Bitcoin and they hold their own keys, both small and large, like the micro-straties of this world. Now, we make this really simple, said Phil Geiger, Unchains, head of marketing. We hold one key, our clients hold two keys, which means that our clients are really in full control over their Bitcoin. With these new business accounts, we have built out a combination of enterprise level controls for different user types, accounting, and so on.

But at the base of everything, it's the Bitcoin Protocol. all. Now, I guess this is kind of the author interjecting here. It says, they say, this is all fine and dandy, but regulated financial firms see a gray area at best when it comes to crypto custody and are likely to lean towards the closest thing to the traditional world, a regulated custodian such as Bitco BitGo trust. Now, Lewis goes on to say, at first blush, that's entirely logical. But I think there will be this push and pull in terms of the way things were and how things are shifting over to the way things will be. We have this new form of money. Do we need to forfeit it to legacy regulation that has existed for 30 or 40 years? Maybe the reality is that the regulations need to change to deliver the best

security. So yeah, I really like this idea of a collaborative custody solution, especially for people that are diving into the space that are worried about screwing up, but also understand the ethos and understand the value in having control over your own wealth. So you can have and pay a third party to make your setup fault tolerant. So if you screw up, there's still somebody to help you out. So help you out. So you could have a major screw up and still be able to get to your money. I think solutions like this. And I've been talking and using a lot of multi-sig lately. And I've done a bunch of videos. I did Unchains Open Source project. God, why am I forgetting the name of it? Anyways, I did Unchained Capsing.

Capitals Caravan. That's what it's called. I did that multi-sig solution, which is free to use for anybody. I just did, I've done Electrum, I did Lily Wallet, and I also did another one recently, which I'm totally, oh, Specter. So there's a lot of good multi-sig solutions coming out. It's still new to a lot of people. So if you're looking to dive into it, then, you know, just be cautious. Don't put a lot of money into it. try breaking it, try doing things wrong to see, see what you understand and what you don't. But feel free to dive through my old videos. There's a bunch. Just look up multi-signature on my channel.

And there should be four different videos that you can parse through there. Anyways, kudos. Kudos to Unchained for jumping on this positive trend. Okay, I want to just dive into this really quick. This is going to be a bit of a longer show because this story is very interesting. The FinCEN files. Secret documents detail failures of global banking industry. Banks watched on as millions of dollars of dirty money was funneled through the global financial system. Just another story to exemplify all of these bullshit worries over, oh, Bitcoin is used to launder money.

The banks are used to launder money. And if you don't think that they're doing it, it's just because you don't have enough money for the money. them to give a shit about you. So what happened here? Leaked documents detail how over two trillion, $2 trillion worth of dirty money has been funneled through the world's biggest banks. This was published by BuzzFeed. Over 2,500 documents including 2,000 suspicious activity reports documents how authorities were provided with evidence and failed to act. So it's not just that the banks were doing shady shit, but there were suspicious activities reports filed and nothing was done. So this is like systemic.

It's not like people got around the regulators. It's like the regulators are like, eh. The FinCent files are unprecedented in 2016. The Panama Papers documented how the world's wealthiest avoided tax with the help of law firm Mossack Funcica. A year later, the Paradise Papers revealed further offshore dealings to the benefit of politicians and other public figures. What makes the FinCEN files different is that they reveal systemic evidence

of global corruption rather than the wrongdoings of a handful of actors. Fuck banks, enter Bitcoin, tweeted Pavel Rosnick, co-founder and CTO of Satoshi Labs, creators of hardware wallet, Trezer. Anyways, some details around

some of the stuff that slipped through the cracks, quote unquote. London-based HSBC allegedly allowed the transfer of millions of stolen funds around the world. According to FinC. Finsend files, these transactions occurred after evidence of illegal activity was found by U.S. authorities. In the Middle East, London-based Standard Chartered was allegedly found to have been moving

funds for Arab Bank in Jordan more than 10 years after clients of the Jordanian entity were found to be funding terrorism. And German Bank Deutsche Bank was reportedly. shown to be moving dirty money connected to terrorism and drug dealing. The SAR documents, the series of transactions that flowed through the bank. Furthermore, FinCent files have implicated financial centers around the world. Among them, London features prominently as an international capital for financial crime and corruption.

One of the FinCEN files' biggest findings is that J.P. Morgan allegedly facilitated the movement over of over one billion dollars through a London company. At the time of the transactions, the bank allegedly had no idea who was behind the money. Later, it was discovered the funds might belong to the Semyon Maw-Moggilovich. I think that's, I'm not saying that right. So that's a Russian mobster found on the FBI's 10 most wanted list. So, like, they don't care. they don't care if you think that they care they really don't care it's just people are just where's my fee

um and so like it's it's funny because the regulations they catch the people kind of in the middle that middle range then it also makes it incredibly onerous for regular people that just want to send money easily internationally and then the people at the top that are the worst of the worst are just getting a total free pass. So, like, it's a really broken system. I don't... I don't know. Maybe we just used law enforcement to enforce crimes

instead of worrying about money itself. Maybe. I like the end. The byline at the end here, it says, banks and regulators spend a lot of energy figuring out how to manage reputational risk. Perhaps taking suspicious activity reports seriously would be

a good start. Excellent way to end that article. Anyways, guys, a little bit more positive to end here. New volume of Citadel 21, my favorite cultural magazine for Bitcoin, has just dropped in digital form. Yeah, really enjoyed this. One of the ones that I really liked was Bitcoin

Zero to One Money by Human Jets. If you haven't read Zero to One as a book by Peter Thiel talking about how really innovative of companies taken an idea that didn't exist and making it exist. And how this relates, this article is all how it relates to Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is kind of like a zero to one jump. And all of the alt-coin noise is kind of like thinking that they're zero to one and presenting it that way, but it's not.

It's like iterations with Bitcoin. And you can only jump from zero to one once in a particular method or in a particular sector or or technology. Anyways, I really enjoyed this. I'm excited to get my physical copy of Citadel 21, Volume 1 pretty soon, and I did just subscribe for six volumes after the fact. So excited to get those in. If you haven't checked them out, do, because it's a fun read, even if you just check it out

digitally. Anyways, guys, I'm going to wrap up here, a little bit of a longer one today. Thank you so much for watching. or listening. If you're here on YouTube, do hit, like, subscribe, share. All of those are very important. They really, really do help. If you want to help in another way, hit up the sponsors that I mentioned down below. Ladin, you can get that 50 free bucks. Crypto cloaks, you can get the 5% off for BTC sessions and the Kobo Vault. Remember, they're giving away free stuff, so retweet the show and let us know if you want one of those steel seed plates, and we're going

to be doing that until the end of November. If you really love what you saw, you can drop me a Bitcoin Lightning Network tip at my tibbin.me page. That is t-i-p-p-in.m-me-slash-at-B-T-C sessions. And with that, I'm out. Have yourselves a wonderful day, wonderful evening, wherever you are, and I will see you next time for your daily session.