BTC Sessions - BTC Stimulus Pump, Schiff Investigation, Global Monetary Reset EP109

Starting point is 00:00:14 Wasabi wallet and fairly private. What's up, everyone? I'm Ben with the BTC sessions, and this is your daily session. Before we dive in, I want to give a shout out to sponsors of the show, leaden.com. This is where you can use your Bitcoin for a variety of different services. Now, they've got their Bitcoin back loans. This is where you can use your Bitcoin as collateral to get a Canadian or US dollar loan.

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Starting point is 00:01:37 Crypto Cloaks. If you have not heard of these guys, they're incredible. Awesome Bitcoiners pumping out incredible Bitcoin swag with their 3D printers. Now I have my Bitcoin node purring behind me on the shelf and I've got my Bitcoin coaster sitting here. They've got a ton of incredible stuff. So as I said, node shells. They just created pre-orders for the Triton where you can stick in two Raspberry Pies. So I'm thinking about getting this bad boy and putting both of my notes inside of it. But they've got the Bitcoin Grenade, the Honey Badger Shelf to store, lots of fun trinkets in. They've got the Citadel flag, sticker packs, covers for your hardware wallets, even nightlights, a little bit of everything for everyone. So head over to Cryptocloaks.com, check them out.

Starting point is 00:02:29 And if you want 5% off, use the code BTC Sessions, all one word. And finally, we have the Kobo Vault. I've done a full tutorial on this thing. This is one of my regularly used hardware wallets. And I love it because, number one, it's completely air-gapped, and it's super convenient to do that. By the way, air-gapping means you never plug the thing into an internet-connected device. Everything is offline and done via QR code.

Starting point is 00:02:54 Now, this thing also has secure elements on it. The firmware is open source, and it works with all of my favorite Bitcoin wallets. You can use it with Bitcoin Core, Electrum, my go-to wallet on desktop, which is Wasabi, my go-to on mobile, which is Blue Wallet, and it's great for multi-sig, all kinds of great features to this thing. So be sure to check that out.com. There's a link in the show notes if you want to grab one. I have the Cobo Vault Pro, which has the fingerprint scanner and the rechargeable battery. And also, they're doing a giveaway. All you need to do is just retweet today's show. show on Twitter, tag myself and Kobo. Let us know if you want one of these tablet pluses,

Starting point is 00:03:33 which is a steel seed plate that allows you to store the backup to any wallet you may have. I just gave away three of them today because I was a little slow on the uptake with some of the past entries. But we're up to speed now and anybody looking to get lucky. Be sure to retweet this show. With that, let's dive into the news. So Bitcoin has been on, I don't want to say like a little bit of a tear, but it definitely has seen some nice green candles today. So we're up a couple, two to three percent today, depending on what time frame you're looking at. But could be various reasons for that. You know, Bitcoin just does what it does. But I want to read a little bit from a couple different articles here. So this over at Bitcoinist title of the article is Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:04:19 bumps higher as Trump calls for bigger stimulus than the Democrats. So the Cliff's Notes version of this article, Bitcoin is likely gaining steam due to ongoing stimulus talks in the U.S. Reports indicate that President Trump wants politicians to agree on a stimulus deal larger than House Speaker Pelosi has pushed. The details on this latest development were scant. Whatever the case, analysts think that this only accents Bitcoin's value proposition, given that there will only be 21 million, evermind. But theoretically, there's an infinite number of fiat dollars. I do think that this plays into the price of Bitcoin mildly, just in that when you see

Starting point is 00:05:02 money printer go burr and you're a Bitcoiner, you almost feel more bullish about Bitcoin and maybe you stack a little bit harder. And I also think that while it's not necessarily having a massive impact yet, we are seeing some early kind of institutional people recognizing this, people like the Raul Paul's and the Michael sailors and Paul Tudor Jones and people like this that see massive money printing and are going, oh, this represents the opposite of what is happening on a global macro scale. So definitely do believe that plays into it. Now, moving a little bit further into this, this is a Coin Telegraph article that says record fundamentals

Starting point is 00:05:45 and a 12K pump five Bitcoin price tips this week. Now, I just want to touch on a few parts of the article. So they're talking about U.S. macro, the elections versus stimulus. So here it says the U.S. is the firm focal point when it comes to macro markets this week. The November 3rd elections promise to set the mood as it becomes more apparent which side will control the White House. Analysts have warned that a Democrat win could dent the dollar, the long-term prospects for which are already shaky. Trump's re-election, however, would not be enough to keep the green bag out of danger, Goldman Sachs said last week. By extension, calls are coming for safe haven gold and to make serious progress upwards after November,

Starting point is 00:06:33 regardless of the election outcome. For others, however, it is Bitcoin that will profit most impressively. The dollar's strength remains on the radar of Bitcoiners thanks to the inverse correlation between Bitcoin USD and the U.S. dollar current. DXY. Despite this correlation becoming less apparent in recent weeks, a sudden weakening of USD has the potential to be a boon for the largest cryptocurrency. Now, further down in the article, they talk about Europe hinting at more intervention. And so you have Christine Lagarde talking about how their toolbox for options has not been exhausted, and we'll get into that a little bit more later.

Starting point is 00:07:15 And then you have Bitcoin fundamentals hitting new records. And that in regards to hash rate, mining difficulty, all of that on the rise. Hash rate has stood at estimated computing power dedicated to mining, stood at 146 XAhes per second, which is massive. We're up in, again, all-time high range. So the computing power securing the Bitcoin network just continues to increase more and more. And if anything indicates sentiment for the Bitcoin network, it's people continuing to pile in and become a part of that network and putting capital on the line to secure it, anticipating it to continue to have value and potentially more value. Now, the actual chart, like where we're at today, we just recently, as early as October 15th, we were at a low of around 11,200, which we have had a little bump as of recent.

Starting point is 00:08:21 But then today, at the time of recording this video, we've been up as high as 11,800 just over. We've pulled back a little bit. We're in the kind of mid-11,700 range. But who knows? It's been a rocky day. We've had a few hundred dollars swing. And it definitely feels like we're on the cusp of something. But, you know, Bitcoin can do those pullbacks.

Starting point is 00:08:49 Now, what I did want to do is I wanted to give some historical context about where we are. We're about, we're in the range of around half to two, of the previous all-time high. And I wanted to look back at historically when we were at the similar level to the previous having. Okay. So, you know, two-thirds of the previous all-time high when we're just after the, what would that be?

Starting point is 00:09:19 The third having? The fourth, the third? The second? Anyways. The last having. So two-thirds of Bitcoin's having last time around, probably. price-wise was in and around the high 600, mid-700 range somewhere around there. And so the last time that we were kind of in that range would have been right around here.

Starting point is 00:09:46 So that kind of like 700 range. And when we started to get above that like two-thirds of the way to the having, we had a lot a long kind of drawn out slow you know the occasional bump in price but it was it took a while for us to really really decisively jolt back up and get close to previous all-time highs but when it happened it was very very quick so from in and around it decisively broke out of that kind of like 700 range in and around December 21st of 2000. 16. But within, when was that peak, by the 4th of January, so about over the course of the next two weeks, we went from from around seven, you know, the mid to high 700s, back up to nearly 1,200.

Starting point is 00:10:44 Very close, like 1160 or something like that. So pretty much almost the previous all-time high in a matter of about two weeks. So if that were to play out again, you could very potentially see percentage-wise in a number of, you know, in a matter of a couple weeks, you could feasibly see from whenever that breakout happened, a rise from 12, 13K all the way back up to nearly 20 in very short order. So now it's also important to realize what happened immediately after that because check this out. So we had a huge dump from the previous all-time eye all-time eye all the way back.

Starting point is 00:11:25 down to exactly where we were sitting just before it. So back down to 700 and something. Although it was very brief because then weeks later you saw a revisit of all-time high and just above. And then another dump all the way back down to just below 1,000, maybe even 800, somewhere in there. And then that's when you started to see this massive, massive climb. We got up to around 18, 19, and I believe this was the climb all the way up to almost 3,000. Yeah, right around the 3,000 mark. But then, again, we had a big dump. This was the ETF rejection from the Winkle Voss Twins, and we dumped all the way back down to 1800s. So you got cut again by to more than 30%, like 35%, something like that in short order. But then again, you see the mass of

Starting point is 00:12:25 pumps, you see the dumps by 30, 40%, and then you see the massive pumps again. And by the time we got into the last quarter of the year, it was just pandemonium before the eventual sell-off into 2018. So I guess the moral of the story here is not in trying to time things, but in realizing that if you place value in Bitcoin, you're not trying to time things. You're just accumulating and holding it. And in doing so, you're just there and you're experiencing those swings as they happen and gaining purchasing power from that. But trying to time those ups and downs, man, I do not envy anybody who's attempting to do that. So just know if you're waiting for dips and you're trying to strategically buy, you're probably going to get fucked. So I guess that's my moral. But so I've never

Starting point is 00:13:24 done TA before, but here's my best go at TA. You can see here, and those that are listening audio only you won't get this, you're going to have to go back and watch the YouTube video. But you can see here, my projection for Q1, you can see a nice little green handle, a nice little bump here in the first queue of 2021. Q2, some decisive breakouts, definitely some strong, you know upward pressure here. Q3 really start to get moving. And then just the absolute engorgement of Q4 just looks pretty girthy to me.

Starting point is 00:14:04 But beware the blow off top. I hope you enjoyed that. Anyways, moving on another bullish individual. Ralph Paul, I alluded to him in some earlier stories here. But he says that Bitcoin will hit a million in the next five years. And I don't think he's far off base, if I'm honest. Again, who knows? I could be totally wrong.

Starting point is 00:14:29 He could be totally wrong, but let's read into this. So this is from the BTC Times. Macro investor, Raoul, Paul, is adamant that Bitcoin will undergo exponential growth this cycle. In an interview with Investment Publication, Stansbury Research last week, the former head of Goldman Sachs hedge fund sales division said that Bitcoin is likely to reach a price of $1 million in the coming five years. As to what will trigger this growth, Powell, CEO of Real Vision, cited the enormous wall of money that is being siphoned into Bitcoin. His quote, just from what I know, from all of the institutions, all of the people I speak to, there is an enormous wall of money coming into this.

Starting point is 00:15:09 It's an enormous wall of money. Just the pipes aren't there to allow people to do it yet. And that's coming. But it's on everybody's radar and there's a lot of some of our people working on it. We'll see the start of this wall of inflows with recent news events. Obviously, we had a number of institutions and companies mentioning and disclosing that they're holding Bitcoin. So Stone Ridge Asset Management, just to close, that it owns 10,000 Bitcoin currently valued around 113 million. A week prior to this announcement, Financial Technology Giant Square, purchased 50 million worth of Bitcoin to help hedge its balance sheet. Digital Asset Manager, Grayscale Investments, also recently revealed that over quarter three of 2020 alone,

Starting point is 00:15:56 it secured $720 million worth of Bitcoin for its Bitcoin trust, mostly from institutional investors. And I think Dan Tapiero put it best when he said this. Shortages of Bitcoin possible. Barry's Grayscale Trust is eating up Bitcoin like there is no tomorrow. 77% of all newly mined, turns into 100 when if 77% of all the newly mined bitcoin turns into 110% it's lights out non-miner supply will get held off market in a squeeze shorts will be dead price can go to any number and he has

Starting point is 00:16:39 a chart here showing the growth of gray scale and what they've been accumulating um and yeah so in in q1 you have gray scale taking 27% of all mine bitcoin and In Q2, they're taking 70%. In Q3, they're taking 77%. And this is just grayscale buying this up. This isn't taking into account that square, just retail investors buying off square, are already a massive, massive percentage.

Starting point is 00:17:08 If you add square into this equation, that's all mined Bitcoin being bought up. So I think in very short time, you could see massive pressure on Bitcoin price. Now, moving on into more kind of macro global economics, there was a call from the IMF, or rather they alluded to the idea of a new Breton Woods. So in a speech or letter from the IMF's new managing director, Kristolina Georgiva, They said that the pandemic is showing that there is a need for an overhaul to the world monetary system.

Starting point is 00:17:52 Quote, today we face a new Bretton Woods moment, a pandemic that has already cost more than a million lives, an economic calamity that will make the world economy 4.4% smaller this year and strip an estimated 11 trillion of output by next year. and untold human desperation in the face of huge disruption and rising poverty for the first time in decades. Yeah, it's pretty wild, and Ralph Paul actually had a thread on this that I wanted to dive into. It's quite interesting. I'll try and get through as much of it as I can here, but he said, important thread. If you don't think central bank digital currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. this is going to be the biggest overhaul of the financial system since Bretton Woods.

Starting point is 00:18:42 Talking of Bretton Woods, this IMF article alludes to a huge change coming, but lacks real clarity outside of allowing much more fiscal stimulus via monetary mechanisms. Tomorrow, which this was on Sunday, the IMF holds a conference on digital currencies and cross-border payment systems. But it's not just the IMF. This was first floated by Mark Carney at the Bank of England over a year ago and sets the course for new systems. His big idea is a move away from the dollar using central bank digital currencies so its effects on world trade flows and debts was not so pronounced. The ECB weighed in many times in the last year, but the latest is clear. Central bank digital currencies are coming and soon.

Starting point is 00:19:25 Next up was the regulatory changes in the US allowing for bank custody of digital assets, especially Bitcoin, i.e. the acceptance that digital assets are not going away and are in fact the future. And recently, the Cleveland Fed added their thoughts. On Monday, Jay Powell gives his input on central bank digital currencies at the IMF, talk listed above, which we'll talk about in a second, and central bank digital currencies are coming and they will change anything. They're coming under stealth of cross-border payments, but it means so much more. And then it shows a poll from the IMF,

Starting point is 00:19:59 and the poll was, in five years, how will you be sending money to a family member abroad? They have a number of options, cash and envelope, money transfer service, the digital currency or other, and digital currency got 73% of the vote. Of course, this was just a few hours into it, but already 3,000 votes had been accumulated. So they allow the central banks to circumvent the banking and fiscal system and give or take money, tax or transfer payments directly. That completely changes the monetary versus fiscal policy forever. Central banks will now be able to manage fiscal policy outside of government's balance sheets. They can give, for example, restaurant owners a direct payment for stimulus whilst at the same time charging negative interest rates on large savers.

Starting point is 00:20:46 This is what Bitcoin is for. That they can, yeah, they can create direct tax payments to in the rails of the payment system. No more IRS? Multi-interest rates set centrally will be the norm. No one needs to allow the banks to set interest rates based on capital availability or risks. Central banks can now create a defined cost of capital to whomever they please if they get the powers from the governments, which will come. Don't forget, it absolves any spending responsibility in a crisis from governments, and after 2008 and 2020, they're desperate for it. It will also approach behavioral economics to the forefront based on big data and real-time activity data.

Starting point is 00:21:32 Central banks can now create incentives directly as rewards or punishments. They can affect human behavior in a way that is much less blunt than traditional monetary and fiscal policy. Yeah, so he goes on to talk about this is kind of like a precursor to allow for UBI. Yeah, and it really kind of it takes the focus off the dollar, which could be quite bearish for the, the dollar. They are going to likely refer to if they all kind of collude together, a more of a basket of central bank digital currencies, kind of like Libra, but governments in charge. And yeah, overall, I think it's, I guess I'll read on here. Again, there will be huge benefits to the new system, but it can only mean further debasement of the entire

Starting point is 00:22:27 fiat currency system. Can it create structural inflation? I don't know. So and so forth, Fiat globally will be worth less versus hard assets. And that means that gold and in particular Bitcoin will become the way to circumvent the system of even lower value. Yeah. So, I mean, he's kind of getting at the fact that while central bank digital currencies will allow for efficiencies in payments, it will allow for inefficiencies in wealth preservation. And Bitcoin is your opt-out at this point. Yeah, a solid thread.

Starting point is 00:23:03 I will link to it down below. I don't want to go through all of it. It's quite long. But now, talking about Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, he did speak on digital currencies today. What he's had to say was the following. There are a number of ways that a CBDC, central bank digital currency,

Starting point is 00:23:20 might improve the payment system. And it is mainly in this area that motivates our interests at Powell during the meeting, identifying a principal reason as to why a central bank digital currency may come for the United States in the future. Now, obviously, U.S. has been kind of slow on this. China is already, like, moving ahead with it, and the city of Shenzhen had recently issued 10 million yuan in digital currency to 50,000 randomly selected citizens

Starting point is 00:23:49 through red envelopes, according to a Chinese website. The winners, according to the website posts, are able to spend these funds at 3,389 mergence in the Loohoo. I don't know how to say it. Laluhu district. Anyways, according to Powell, each country has to carefully consider their own stance on central bank digital currencies.

Starting point is 00:24:12 Now, he's talking about cyber issues, privacy issues, so and so forth. In addition, Powell said that United States, unlike other jurisdictions, already has highly banked population. We have a highly banked population so that many, although not all, already have access to electronic payments.

Starting point is 00:24:28 We do think it's important to get it right, rather than be the first. So it sounds like they're looking at it, but not yet. Now, in the same vein of central bank digital currencies, Bank of Canada posted a position for an economist and digital currencies and financial technologies expert as the Canadian Central Bank continues to research how a central bank digital currency would work

Starting point is 00:24:54 as well as the possible risks involved. So it seems really like everybody's looking at this. But I think the net negatives will outweigh the net positives for this. Sure, cross-border payments will be easier, but the money you're paying with will definitely be worth less and less as the controls over that and monetary policy become much easier. And there's not as many, well, they're assuming there's not as many off-ramps because people can't just take the cash. Now, moving on, I wanted to touch on a couple last things here. Bitcoin critic, Peter Schiff, bank is under spotlight in a global tax probe. So a Puerto Rico-based bank founded by Goldbug and

Starting point is 00:25:39 longtime Bitcoin skeptic, Peter Schiff, is under investigation over suspicions. It facilitated tax evasion for high-risk clients. According to reports on Saturday by several large media organizations in Australia and the U.S. Schiff's Euro-Pacific Bank has become the focus of a major global tax evasion investigation dubbed Operation Atlantis. Hundreds of account holders at the bank, including 100 Australians considered high risk, are now being investigated over possible tax evasion and money laundering. So he was recently on 60 Minutes. He kind of got blindsided by a bunch of questions about this,

Starting point is 00:26:15 and he ended up storming off the set and refusing to answer any further questions about it. Now, everybody loves to hate on Peter Schiff. I think his Bitcoin takes are terrible. But overall, his view of economics in terms of what's happening on a macro scale and what's happening around the world and the devaluation of currencies, I think he's pretty spot on there. I think he's just wrong on the solution. And it's easy to shit on him for what's happening here. But I think my favorite take was here on Twitter. And I'll link to this tweet down below.

Starting point is 00:26:55 But from Ty here, he says, before you guys start dunking on Peter's ship for, this tax evasion investigation, read up on his dad, Erwin Schiff. Tax evasion is a victimless crime, and if it turns out that Peter is helping his clients protect their money from the state, it elevates him in my eyes. Now, again, I know it's up for a debate how taxes are utilized and, you know, like using money for the the good of a community and so and so forth but myself the way i look at it it is a coercive system um and i i lean towards the side of a voluntary being voluntarily opting into systems like that instead of being coerced um that's not the reality that we live

Starting point is 00:27:52 in today but again uh i do take that into consideration when looking at Peter Schiff. And one last thing I wanted to touch on a little bit more on the techy side of things. Well, actually, not really because this simplifies a lot. But Breeze wallet just released a new update. I just downloaded it and tried it out really quick. It's great. So if you're unfamiliar, Breeze is a Lightning wallet.

Starting point is 00:28:18 It allows for very easy onboarding to the Lightning Network. And it is non-custodial. It's pretty solid. say. So some of the things that they added on here, channel creation on the fly. And so it allows it allows for people to effectively get immediate payments. So if you don't have inbound liquidity and liquidity tended to be an issue with lightning in the early days, having channels open, it's all automated. So you can just hit to request a new payment for whatever amount. And if there's not an inbound channel already open to you, they'll just take a small piece of that, one one thousandth of

Starting point is 00:29:00 it actually, and that will be your fee to open that channel, which is pretty great. Now outside of this, they also have zero confirmation channels, which means if a channel needs to be open to you, the stuff that happens in the back end, essentially they're opening two channels at once and the one open to you is from them to you. So you just more or less, the funds are instantly available, even if the channel was not previously open. Also, multipath payments.

Starting point is 00:29:34 What this means is before you were limited in how much you could spend based on the highest value of a single channel going outbound from your Lightning Wallet. Now, multipath payments, it's an aggregate of every single payment channel that you have opened. So if I have a channel open for 100,000 sats and 200,000 sats and 200,000 sats before my max spend in a single transaction would be 200,000 because that's the most I have, now my max spend is 500,000 because it's the aggregate of every channel that I have open and it's spending capacity.

Starting point is 00:30:12 Again, also they upped the limit. previously the limit for channels was 1 million sats now it's 4 million sats which means feasibly depending on how many channels you have open you could be spending much more than that in a single payment with multi-path payments and then also you don't need a reserve channel before they needed to have a minimum amount of around 600 sats within a channel just I'm not sure exactly how it worked, but you needed a minimum balance. That's no longer the case. And you can also connect to multiple nodes. I looked, yeah, it's just super, super convenient all the stuff that they've done here. I will link to the Medium article, but I do highly recommend

Starting point is 00:31:00 download it. Try it. You can also accept directly from a regular Bitcoin transaction, and I believe you can send out to a regular Bitcoin wallet, and it'll just do a swap on the spot. Kudos to Breeze. Awesome. It looks like my old tutorial for Breeze is now obsolete, unfortunately. So maybe I'll do a new one. Anyways, guys, I'm going to wrap it up there. Thank you so much for watching and or listening. If you're here on YouTube, please do hit like, subscribe, share. All of those things are very important and they really do help.

Starting point is 00:31:34 Also, if you want to help with this show in another way, you can hit up my sponsors that I mentioned down below. That was Ledden, CryptoClose. Leden, Crypto cloaks, and Kobo. Links for that, all that down below. And if you really loved what you saw, you can drop me a Bitcoin Lightning Network tip, maybe with Breeze wallet,

Starting point is 00:31:50 at my tippin.me page. That is t-i-p-p-in. dot me slash ad-B-T-C sessions. With that, I'm out. Have yourselves a wonderful day, a wonderful evening. I'll see you next time for your daily session.

BTC Sessions - BTC Stimulus Pump, Schiff Investigation, Global Monetary Reset EP109

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