BTC Sessions - EMERGENCY: Gold & Silver Worst Crash EVER - Market Update w Joe Consorti

Episode Date: January 30, 2026

🚨 Gold & Silver BIGGEST Crash of all time. Emergency Market Update with Special Guest Macro Analyst Joe Consorti BOOK private one-on-one sessions with BITCOIN MENTOR! Learn self custody, hardware, multisig, lightning, privacy, running a node, and plenty more - all from a team of top notch educators that I've personally vetted.https://bitcoinmentor.io/—------------------------------FOLLOW BTC Sessions on X: x.com/BTCsessions—------------------------------SHOW SPONSORS:BITCOIN WELL BUY BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6COINKITE/COLDCARD (5% discount):https://store.coinkite.com/promo/BTCSessions ABUNDANT MINES:https://qrco.de/bgYKPBAQUA WALLEThttps://qrco.de/bfiD8gNUNCHUK HONEYBADGER INHERITANCEhttps://qrco.de/bfiDARHODLHODL NO KYC P2P EXCHANGEhttps://hodlhodl.com/join/BTCSESSIONDEBIFI LOANShttps://qrco.de/bfiDCp#btc #bitcoin #crypto

Oh my God. Gold and Silver woke up this morning and decided to choose violence. We have the fifth worst crash in gold and the worst crash ever for Silver right now. So we had to jump on due to an emergency live stream, give you guys a update in real time. And to do so, we brought on the wonderful, fantastic macro analyst Joe Consorti. So with that, let's get into it. All right, let me go ahead and welcome Joe to the stage. Joe, my good man, what an interesting morning. How are you doing? And what on earth are you seeing right now? What is, give people context, what just happened? Wow. Okay. So everybody knows, and thank you for having me, Nathan.

I was a pleasure to do this. When you, when you asked for an emergency live stream, I said yes, immediately. I just popped up a chart on screen. You could see here, worst one-day percentage decline in silver on the terminal. It only goes back to 19, I think late 1950s. But I did a cross-track and I tracked all of the data since at least 1762. And at least until since 1762, this is the worst one-day percentage decline in silver ever. Right now, it went as low as 35%. Right now, it's 29% down on the day, which still is the worst day ever. Prior to that, the worst day ever was during the 2008 financial crisis.

You could see over here back in 2006, but we've since claimed the top spot. So it's a pretty insane thing to see, but it's not really surprising if you take a look at what Silver has done over the last year. Typically, you know, when you see a parabolic move that's followed by a barabolic move, that's followed by a blow off top. You know, a parabolic move in that you're getting increasingly higher and accelerating price growth over a really short period of time. This is something you usually only see with Bitcoin and something you typically also only see with meme coins, right?

Yeah. The fact that silver and gold, silver to a much larger degree, is trading in this way, should send off a flare to everybody. But it's really no surprise to me that after such a parabolic move in silver and gold, we're seeing a correction. Now, I tend to think the top is in for metals. I did a show with Alex Stanzac yesterday on the Bitcoin Crucible and I said, I think they could go a little bit higher just because of the dynamics at play. But given the fact that we had this blow off top, generally speaking, markets don't recover after that. Back in 2008, when this happened, when the last worst day for silver happened,

it fell, I think, 25% in a single day. Now we're down 30%. And it went on to decline another 80%. So chances are that that's what may be underway for silver. And everybody also has to consider. And then I'll shut up after saying this one last thing, that gold and silver, they have a supply response function. So there's no, the price, the supply isn't completely inelastic, as is the case with Bitcoin. And so what inevitably happens when silver surges from, what was it down here, from $40 all the way to $120? And now even $80, you see more supply come online. It becomes more profitable to bring more gold and silver up out of the ground.

So I would say pretty comfortably that right here, right now, the top is in for metals, at least for the time being. You typically, once you see a blow off top, you don't see a recovery and a resumption of all time highs after that. But we'll have to wait and see. I'm curious if you have any thoughts too. And let's get your thoughts on why this seems so specifically isolated to precious metals right now is it just because they've had that parabolic run.

And then also yesterday, I noted there was a rapid sell-off in gold. It seemed to recover quite quickly, kind of bounce back from that. But what are we seeing going on there? I see that Zero Hedge was reporting. There was $4 billion in precious metals ETF today. Is this leverage games that are just getting wiped out? Or is this some other sort of market signal that we're getting from the precious metals right now? Yeah, well, typically, I mean, what's happening in precious metals is it's driven by,

obviously, this huge surge in geopolitical tensions that we've seen. I mentioned the last time we were on the show, this debt crisis that's happening in China. that's much more acute than it is here. Also, Chinese investors, they're all looking for alternatives to U.S. dollar assets, and at the same time, sovereigns are recilateralizing around gold, so they're moving away from U.S. Treasuries as their base layer for foreign exchange reserves and toward gold, this more neutral money. So as far as what's causing this selloff today, clearly there's leverage at play, right? You know, spot selling may have initiated it. A lot of people may have said, okay, going from, you know, $4,000 to start the years at $5,600, that seems pretty

major. I'm going to take some gains off the table. But you don't see almost $10 trillion erased from both gold and silver combined over the last 48 hours if there isn't a bit of a leverage on wide. So what Zero Hedger was reporting was pretty accurate, there certainly is a component of leverage that's at play that caused this initial selling, which may have been pretty sparse, to turn into this sort of reflexive feedback loop of force selling and this unwinding positions. And that's another reason why chances are you won't see gold and silver recover to the heights

that they were because of the component of leverage. Another thing to bring up is the extreme volatility, right? You do not see this type of volatility with monetary metals, particularly now that they are so large, right? Gold is a $34 trillion asset, just three days ago. Just yesterday it was a $38.5 trillion asset. It had actually grown larger than the entire amount of the United States debt, which is a fun fact. It doesn't mean much of anything, but it's a pretty fun fact. Typically, you don't see that kind of volatility unless there's a problem with the currency,

right? Unless the currency is debasing at such a rate that you see a parabolic move in hard money, particularly large market cap hard money. So, you know, the chart that I like to point to is the price of gold. in German marks during Weimar Germany. And I'll share that up on screen right now. You don't see volatility unless there's some sort of extremely inflationary event where the currency is depreciating at such a rapid rate.

And at the same time, you investors fleeing for the exits and fleeing for hard money at the same time. This is a period during the hyperinflation in Weimar Germany from 1914 to 1923. In black, you could see gold priced in Weimar Marx. And in red, you could see the percentage change in the gold price on a month. monthly basis. Now, if there's one thing that this looks extremely similar to, and I'll actually zoom all the way out to 2023 on my gold chart, so viewers keep that chart of a German marks, gold denominated in German marks in mind. This is gold denominated in U.S. dollars right here over the last couple of years. So I think I know what to make of this, right? It's this global

economic reordering, this extremely inflationary, not collapse of the US dollar, but at the very least a massive erosion in investor confidence and a flight to metals that we just have never seen before in modern history. And what I found so interesting, there was the post from James Check regarding him selling his medals position. We talked about it on last night's stream. And he was talking about he was getting phone calls and texts of people wondering how to buy silver, which feels very reminiscent of like the Bitcoin bull runs of like 2021 and 2017, when you had people who had no idea necessarily.

There weren't long time, you know, precious metals bugs. They were just foemowing in, which felt like the perfect call of the top potentially here. I'm curious if you have any insight into what may have been the catalyst for the moves we saw today. I mean, I got to ask you issue a bit of a correction. Last night I was calling the Fed governor. I was talking about Rick, but it wasn't Rick. It was Kevin that we had announced here. Do you think this has anything to do with changes over at the Fed or is there something else

that may have triggered this event? Because I quickly took a look at the two-year, the 10-year treasurer. I was looking at the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. They all seem flat on the day. not seeing a response in the market anywhere except for precious metals. Yeah, so I don't think Warsh had anything to do with it. I think this is purely isolated to golden silver and just a response function to this massive parabolic rise that we've seen in both of them because it's been isolated entirely to precious metals, as you pointed out.

Bitcoin is totally flat. In fact, it's actually a little bit up on the day. It was lower yesterday. It's at 84-5 now. And so Bitcoin tends to sniff these things out more than anything else. if there was an acute market response to Warsh being the Fed share, then you would see investors run for the exits for everything. And also, you have to consider, like, Warsh will not be the Fed governor or the Fed chair rather until May. Right. So there may have been an initial sell-off. This was a big market-moving news. But ultimately, for me, speaking of the new Fed governor, I don't think markets were really going to move decidedly in any direction with the Fed governor being announced,

because every single choice that Trump had made was one that would basically follow all of his whims, right? There's been this basically like all of the people Trump nominated for Fed Chair or was considering nominating for Fed Chair and then Warsh, we ultimately landed on, are very close to the Trump family in one way or another and would have listened to what he'd like to do for monetary policy. And so for that reason, I wasn't expecting like a big reaction to markets from the decision when it ultimately came out. I think Warsh is a pretty good choice. He's, you know, he's all right with Bitcoin. He isn't antagonistic to Bitcoin like Powell has been in the past. Powell has recently changed his tune. But the move you see in golden silver today is entirely isolated.

And it's a wild thing to see. You brought up checkmate, you know, mentioning that like friends and family were calling and texting about how to buy golden silver. Similarly, Caleb Franzen, who's an analyst that I really admire on X, he also said that like his mom had bought a lot of golden silver, the prior day. And so chances are that would, that would mark the top. But it's something we see in Bitcoin time and again, this, this sort of, this signal where if your friends and family reach out to you, it's probably the very end. Because that is like the last, the last gasp of retail investors

trying to get out on the move, like the final, the final breath of dumb money, if you will. And it seems that we saw that for metals, at least for the time being. Yeah, I would largely agree too. I was even taking a quick look at the Fed Watch tool on the CMA futures. And like there's no, There's no even cut price in until after Kevin gets in here until the 17th of June meeting. So it looks like really no change I'm seeing across the market, at least from the little bits that I look at. I'm curious. We talked previously about the idea of there being a rotation out of gold and precious metals

into higher beta assets at some point in time. Ideally, hopefully that flows into Bitcoin as well. Is this something that you would see is kind of marking the beginning of when that trade might start to happen? Like if we had this blow off top after a parabolic move, that was basically the debasement trade that made us way all the way to the retail investor. And now we're likely going to continue on the decline. I'm thinking that the decline is going to be basically pushed forward or like it's going to be pushed down by people starting

to rotate out into other things. Is that kind of the way that you perceive things going in the future? Or maybe there's something else that I'm missing? Yeah, to me, it's the beginning of the end in my mind. The beginning of the end of this huge parabolic move we've seen in gold and silver and an eventual shift out into everything else, these higher beta assets, right? Ultimately, capital goes where it's treated the best in times of tremendous geopolitical and uncertainty, capital flowed into gold and silver, naturally. Those are proven to be the best hedges against geopolitical uncertainty and monetary debasement over time. But once you have a 350% advance in silver in 18 months and 175% advance in gold in 18 to 24 months, like returns

get exhausted at some point. And so at the margin capital rotates elsewhere. And you're beginning to see this in everything else. Goal, excuse me, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, All of those are flat over the last month. Bitcoin is down about 5%. And so a lot of the capital that may have otherwise been reserved for those assets as we move into the new year was just participating in this golden silver trade. And now that that trade seems to be exhausted, I would look for over the next couple of weeks for that capital to begin rotating out at the margin and into higher beta assets, particularly with how Bitcoin seems to be bottoming out now. It's been extremely resilient even in the face of all of this buying pressure in gold and silver. In my mind, that could have been. I mean, that's a sign of huge resilience that Bitcoin has managed to stay here for coming up on two months. It's been in this range. It's managed to hold the lows.

So yeah, no, that's what I would anticipate as being on the horizon. But Bitcoin is, that said, Bitcoin is at a pretty nasty inflection point right now. It's pushing against some pretty key levels. We just lost, if I'm not mistaken. I think the 200 day moving average or the 200 week moving average for the first time since November of 2022, the two-year moving average, excuse me, yes, the 200-week moving average for the first time, 2022. And that marked the entrance into the second half of the bear market, if you will. We managed to climb back above it. We're about $2,000 above it now. But even still,

I don't want to remain at this level for much longer, if I'm confident that Bitcoin is going to rally higher. I said it on the last show, I think even the show prior to that. We just filmed so many of these have lost count at this point. I think the path of least resistance for Bitcoin has continued consolidation. And the fact that it is barely moved today, it's down half a percentage point, which basically in Bitcoin terms means it's barely moved. On a day when gold has, gold and silver have shed $10 trillion in combined market cap, tells me that there's not much. More than five times the Bitcoin market cap, because we're saying it like 1.6 something last time I looked. Yeah, exactly. So it tells me that, you know, that Bitcoin's resilience here

is it's so high, it's so strong. I doubt Bitcoin moves further from here for now. But that said, I do want to see us get away from these pretty critical junctures, these critical levels. That's the one thing in my mind. Beautiful. And just to clarify for that. So let me show us exactly. We have reclaimed the 200-day moving average. But if there's concern, if we break that again and perhaps if we stay below it, they're entering possibly bare market territory at that point. That's right. Yeah. The two-year moving average is the one to watch. And, you know, there are a couple of like basically everybody that I follow has been totally stratified on this topic. You have like the Joe Carlos Ari's of the world who believe that Bitcoin is still in a

bull market and that we have been bottoming out. I tend to err toward that side. And then you have, again, as I mentioned, Caleb Franzen, who's been on the money with all of his Bitcoin calls over the last several years has said that Bitcoin is already in a bare market. Mark Yusko also says the same thing, extremely intelligent guy, very talented market analyst. He has said the same thing that Bitcoin is in a bare market. But over the next couple of weeks, it'll be very telling, right? If Bitcoin can advance higher and slowly get higher highs rather than grinding around here, I think that'll be the hallmark as to whether or not Bitcoin is truly still in a bull market.

And this was basically very similar to the April correction we saw last year or if we're headed for lower lows. I would just watch that $80,000 level. If we break underneath it, I would say, you know, look at the $74,000 level to the $54,000 level as you're a potential bare market bottom. John. No, fair enough. I'm curious your thoughts on this quick, too. So for me, I feel like we just have to get to the spring, like we just have to get past May, that at least my cursory understanding intake is along the lines of like precious metals are going to move first. Gold's going

to move first, but Bitcoin doesn't necessarily move in advance, but definitely moves in response to any sort of fiscal or policy changes as it perceives more liquidity kind of coming online. And so as long as we can maintain kind of slightly up into the right until that point, I think there's a good chance that we're off to the races in a new bull run after going into summer and then going into the end of year. I'm curious if you share that sort of sentiment review or if there's something that I'm over, probably oversimplifying there. No, that's exactly right. I do tend to agree. I'll share this chart here. This is the, this is Bitcoin versus gold on a 100-day lag. So Bitcoin tends to move in response to moves in

gold historically. And it's on a variable lag, right? It can be anywhere from three months to six months. But the reality is that like this is just standard risk curve capital allocator behavior here that the risk off assets move first, the risk on assets move in response. And right here, you can see that Bitcoin should have been following gold, had it not been for the extremely parabolic move and sort of the crowding out effect of the gold trade, right? So much capital was moving into gold, then moving into silver, that is sort of crowded out the capital that may otherwise have been reserved for the NASDAQ for the S&P 500 for Bitcoin. Now, obviously, the S&P 500 has made new highs during this period of Bitcoin underperformance.

But that said, Bitcoin is so highly sensitive. And arguably, in the minds of a lot of young investors, it serves the same purposes gold. You and I both know that it's not, you know, it is the case. Bitcoin should serve the same purpose as gold, but the market hasn't treated it as such. Arguably, Bitcoin has been more acutely felt, more acutely impacted during this period of underperformance because of investors who at the margin are starting to treat Bitcoin

like gold. So I would say that now that this is exhausting as we move into May, financial conditions, are bound to continue loosening. You know, whoever Trump brings in as Fed share, probably going to cut rates pretty substantially, much more than Powell was. You're probably looking at, you know, 100 basis points of total rate cuts once May rolls around over the ensuing year, over the ensuing a couple of months. That's going to rein in financial conditions.

The weaker dollar that we've seen as well, that's really good for liquidity. And so that should improve risk asset behavior at the margin. So all of these things are going in Bitcoin's corner, but I would tend to agree over the next couple of months as May approaches, it's going to be very critical if Bitcoin can sort of hold the line. And then once we get a new Fed governor, it all depends on how he speaks about monetary policy. But I tend to think because Trump is the one that nominated him, he's going to be pretty doveish. And then after May, I believe it's off to the races. Beautiful. That's wonderful to here too. I actually want to get your take a little bit on the current moves in the Dixie as well. Current moves in the dollar. I'm curious if you have any view on basically what we're necessary. necessarily seeing there because I find myself questioning whether or not we're looking at a dollar weakness or if this has to do maybe with the denominator with euro or yen strength. And that's why we're seeing a decline in the Dixie. And it seems like it's up at least coming up on 1% today. Yeah, it's up marginally today. You can see that over the last, over the last year or so, we've moved down from 110 all the way back down to below 100. Last time we were below 100 was

during 2022. Obviously in this period, the Fed embarked on a major rate hiking cycle. With strength of the dollar tremendously relative to everything else, with Dixie, the thing you have to consider is interest rate differentials. You know, where our rates are relative to other currencies around the world. And currently, we're in a regime where the Fed has lowered rates. But some other countries around the world haven't lowered rates as dramatically as we have. In fact, in Canada, I believe you guys hiked, if I'm not mistaken. I could be totally right. Yeah, no, we had.

So basically the futures market was calling for a hike at the end of the year, but nothing has happened yet. So I don't know if that's just hedging going on, but we've remained unchanged for quite a while now. I think what is we said? I want to say like 2.5% is what we're sitting at something I know. We're substantially below where the U.S. is. We embarked on the cutting a lot faster, but we've been holding steady for the last of the while. Right. Yeah.

So it's primarily interest rate differentials and also interest rate expectations, right? Here in the United States, the expectation is that we're going to continue cutting. And elsewhere in other countries, the expectation is that they may begin hiking very soon. So that's one component of it. But then also this massive move into gold that you've seen. I imagine that that's had a huge impact on the dollar at the margin. So, you know, this, this, secular decline in the dollar, it's no real surprise to me. Ultimately, what Trump wants and what he needs in order for his economic regime to work is a structurally weaker dollar. And so it's no surprise to me that that's what we've been seeing here. Yeah, yeah. I find myself,

I'm curious to get your thoughts on this. I find myself really kind of thinking and empathizing with our, you know, the recent newcomers who phomode maybe into precious metals that might then now beyond the looking to get out, especially if it's under their purchase price, and starting to realize the headache of maybe trying to actually sell spot gold or spot silver and how much of a haircut and the difficulty you can actually do in that sort of scenario. Hopefully it doesn't deter them from like the sound money trade in total, but maybe it can be a, you know, a little bit of light bulb moment that there is some

advantages to Bitcoin. I'm just curious your thoughts on that idea. Well, if anything, the volatility that the gold and silver holders are experiencing today, that's sort of bringing them into Bitcoin Elementary School, right? Because this is the stuff that we experience quite a bit. Maybe it'll make them come around to the volatility of Bitcoin a lot more. I certainly hope it would. But if anything, the gold and silver holders have earned their stripes over the last day alone, as far as volatility is concerned. They got all of the upside volatility over the last several

months. The Bitcoin outperformance, they got to rub it in our face. And now they're seeing what it's like to lose value to the downside. Yeah, 100%. Welcome to the club, guys. You're going to enjoy the wild ride. Joe, was there anything else that you're seeing in markets that we should flag or anything else that people should be aware of? No, nothing major on my radar.

I mean, again, watch Bitcoin around the $83,000 level. It's really critical that we hold this over the next several days. I would keep an eye on gold and silver, whether or not they can sort of stabilize here and find some ground. One of the things that Bitcoin has done so well over the last couple of years is that it is advanced and then spent several. months at a certain price level to get a lot of volume in there to set a floor and then ascend higher. Gold was doing that pretty well throughout 2025 and then all of a sudden later on in

the year, it just decided to go parabolic. So now that gold has entered price discovery mode well and truly, I would watch and see where the price eventually stabilizes because I think that'll be very telling in the near term for how high Bitcoin can inevitably run. If Bitcoin manages to, if gold manages to stabilize around the $4,500 to $5,000 to $5,000, mark, that means I think there's a lot more room for Bitcoin to move. But if gold comes down to say the $3,500, $4,000 mark, it has a 30 to 35% decline from its all-time high, then I would say that that probably means less gas in the tank for Bitcoin. So those would be the two things that I would keep an eye on right now.

The gold price, where it eventually equalizes and this sort of level that we're at now with Bitcoin. Beautiful. I love it. Joe, tell everybody where they can find you. go check out your wonderful stuff. And thank you for jumping on last minute, my friend. Absolutely. Nathan, thanks for having me again.

These are always a blast. You can just search up Joe Consorti on YouTube if you want to find some of my YouTube videos. I'll be posting a video about gold and silver a little bit later today. You can also find me on X at Joe Consorti. Beautiful. I'm Nathan. This is Joe. This has been your daily session.

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