BTC Sessions - Housing Crash, Immigration Crisis & Economic Ruin | Rabidoux & Temprile

Episode Date: June 23, 2026

BTC Sessions Ep. 079: Housing Crash Exposed, Immigration Crisis & Economy on the Brink | Ben RabidouxCanada's private sector is shrinking, homes in Ontario are selling for half their 2021 price, and 525,000 asylum claimants are stuck in a backlog with no real mechanism to remove bad actors. Ben Rabideau has been sounding the alarm since 2021 — and the data is finally catching up.In this episode, Ben Rabideau — one of Canada's most respected economic analysts — breaks down what the headline GDP numbers are hiding, why consumer confidence is as low as the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, and what the Bank of Canada's next move will hinge on. You'll learn why stripping out public sector employment reveals a deeply negative private sector jobs picture, how Ontario's housing market is producing court-ordered sales at 50 cents on the dollar, and why Ben believes single-family prices may be near a bottom — while rentals have years of decline ahead. You'll also get a clear-eyed look at Canada's asylum system vulnerabilities, the immigration fraud pipeline that ran through colleges like Conestoga, and why an AI policy framework written by an art dealer should concern every Canadian.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:56 - Technical Recession and Population Decline2:39 - Ontario BC versus Alberta Economic Split4:37 - Oil Prices and Alberta Investment Boom6:06 - Government Policy Well Meaning or Incompetent10:12 - Immigration Tightening What Has Changed13:11 - Bank of Canada Rate Cut Binary15:06 - Stripping Public Sector Jobs Picture22:10 - Consumer Confidence at Crisis Lows27:32 - Court Ordered Home Sales at Half Price32:59 - Boomer Millennial Housing Transfer by 2030s39:21 - US Housing 30 Year Mortgage Lock In41:23 - Rising Credit Card and Mortgage Delinquencies48:10 - Bill C 22 AI and Surveillance Issues57:29 - Asylum Backlog and Immigration Fraud1:03:18 - Common Sense Immigration Reforms1:06:54 - Following Ben Rabideau and Edge Analytics🔗 Links & Resources:• Ben's Research: www.edgeanalytics.ca - USE PROMO EDGE30 / EDGE330 to drops monthly/annual subscription price to $30/$330• Ben Rabidoux on X: https://x.com/BenRabidoux• Joey on X: https://x.com/JoeyTweeets💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Benn and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io • Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1📌 Previous Episodes: Doomberg & James Lavish → https://youtu.be/uCQStzvsnEUSimon Dixon → https://youtu.be/Aza4GAjQffw⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB🔒 Lockdown your Bitcoin with the BEST gear on the market from Coinkite. Get the 5% Off the COLDCARD visit: https://qrco.de/bfiDBVFollow Us on X:• BTC Sessions: @BTCsessions• Nathan: @theBTCmentor#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #Canada #CanadianEconomy #CanadaEconomy #CanadaHousing #HousingMarket #HousingCrisis #HousingBubble #CanadaHousingBubble #Recession #CanadaRecession #Immigration #ImmigrationCrisis #ImmigrationFraud #CanadaImmigration #AsylumSystem #BankOfCanada #EconomicWarning #EconomicCrisis #PrivateSector #Canada2026 #OntarioRealEstate #EconomicCollapse #BenRabidoux #BenRabideau #BitcoinEducation #SoundMoney #FixTheMoney #BitcoinPodcast #Cryptocurrency #WarningToAmerica #USAEconomy

The Tinder is all there for a really bad bonfire, right? Or some sort of a wildfire in the Canadian economy. The Tinder is there. It's just kind of looking for a spark. So we have less private sector employment in the country than we did a year ago. That never happens outside of recession. The U.S. to their credit has not gone down that road, but they need to be careful not to. Consumer confidence is as low as it was during the depths of the pandemic.

It's as low as it was during the depths of the financial crisis. We've got a housing bubble that popped to homes that are selling under power of sale or court-ordered sale for half of what they sold for back in 2021, 2021, 2022. So we've never seen that before. Our asylum system has become a back door for all sorts of bad actors globally. We have one asylum claimant for every 77 Canadians right now. It's totally nuts. Ben Rabidow is one of Canada's most respected economic analysts known for calling housing, credit, and demographic trends years before it makes headlines. And what he's seeing right now should serve as an early warning to Americans. Along with Joey Tim Preeley in this episode, we discussed the private sector collapse, the real estate market catastrophe, rampant immigration fraud,

and how all of it was avoidable. All right, good morning, Ben. Thank you so much for joining us today. A lot to talk about, a lot to get into, and to kind of start, it's unfortunate, but I feel like Canada always has to be the cautionary tale for our American brothers. So in Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026,

the U.S. grew at 0.5 and then 2%. On the other side, Canada contracted in both quarters for a technical recession, but it's not just that. We've also got declining population, rampant immigration fraud, and now we've got surveillance legislation that's rolling out over the summer here. So to begin the conversation, what the hell is going on in

Canada? Wow. This is a lot there, man. What the hell is going on? Well, I mean, from a high level, we sort of just recorded a quote-unquote technical recession. We had two quarters of declining GDP growth. You're right. Like a lot of that's related to declining population. We actually just had a data point out this morning. Canada's population declined another 55,000 people in Q1. So like this is a, you know, when you're not expanding productivity and your population is declining, it's really hard to avoid a recession. Because economic growth, one simple way to think about it is it's like how many people are you adding to your population multiplied by the productivity growth of each person? Well, if both of those things are negative, like your economy is going to shrink. So that's kind of where we're at right now in Canada.

And there's a lot of discussion around, well, isn't it a recession? Is it technically like, is it really? And I think that largely misses the point. For your American viewers and listeners, Canada right now is really kind of divided into a couple of geographies with very different kind of underlying economic trends. So if we take Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, very soft economic data, some of that related to just, you know, some of the trade issues with the U.S. But also we've got a housing bubble that popped and that's really weighing on growth in Ontario and BC, especially. But on the flip side, if you look, if you just kind of isolated Alberta, Saskatchewan, parts of the Maritimes where they produce oil, looks really good. So you've got this weird situation where like on a headline level, it's like, yeah, we're maybe like you can debate whether we're in a recession or not. But there's no question in my mind that it's really, really recessionary data in kind of Ontario, BC especially. So that's kind of the high level. And I guess the takeaway for your American viewers and listeners is like what we've done in Canada is we really stifled business investment. over the last decade, just through enormous amounts of red tape, bureaucracy,

a lot of, like, well-intentioned but really misguided policies around, you know, in the name of like net zero and all these sort of environmental regulations. It's fine, well-meaning, but just stifled growth. And now we're at a point where, well, I think they, I, you know, there's not a saying where it's like you never, you never ascribe to malevolence, what you can describe to incompetence. And I think in general, like most politicians are not trying to screw people over. They're just generally incompetent.

And I think that, you know, we went through a period of time where just that was the rage. Everyone was, you know, like everyone was just trying to champion their social cause. And the casualty along the way was business, right? Business investment, innovation. And so the U.S. to their credit has not gone down that road, but they need to be careful not to. Before I let Joey jump in there, I just wanted to quickly tag on something. I'm curious because we just had basically, it looks like the Iran war is wrapping up. We're going to get the signatures here on Friday.

And oil is absolutely responding. I think I saw as low as like maybe 77 a barrel, like well under 80 bucks a barrel. With oil now crashing and if it potentially goes even lower, would that then impact Alberta and Saskatchewan in such a way just to drag the whole thing down? Like, do we need those elevated oil prices in order for Alberta to kind of be floating the rest of the country right now? Well, I guess it depends on which we sort of consider elevated oil prices. Where they are today, $75, $80 a barrel, the oil sands are phenomenally profitable.

They've been incredible. They're the one part of the country that has really seen a dramatic improvement in productivity. They've lowered the break-evens significantly. So depending on your estimate, you've got break-evens into the 40s. Oh, wow. I thought it was still like 65. No, no. A lot has changed in the last decade in the oil sands.

And so they look good. But I think all of that matters sort of for like the national coffers, revenue taxation, etc. But as it relates to Alberta specifically, if you just look at the quarters from a lot of big oil stands producers as they reported in the last month or so, the capital, the capital spending investment is off the charts. I mean, they all surprised to the upside. So I think we're going to see a big investment boom in Alberta in the next few years. And that's kind of, I mean, you would need oil to really crater, like deep into the 50s, 40s for really to kind of curtail a lot of investment. So I actually think Alberta is in a pretty good place overall, not going back to like the boom times that kind of pre-2015, but I think it'll be considerably better than Ontario, let's say. Right on, Joey.

Yeah, I think I agree with Ben, most of, with most of what he said there. I would just, I would reframe the question about well-meaning. And you kind of jumped in there, Nate, because, you know, you raised an eyebrow to that too. I think if you flip a coin 50 times and get heads 50 times, at some point you have to imagine the coin might not have a tailside to it. And when I see what the government's doing, I hear well-intentioned. And what I actually think is that the intention is putting a thumb on the scale to get a desired outcome. Now, governments do this in a lot of different silos.

It's not just green where they do this. It's not just DEI where they do this. They do it a lot of places because that's the hammer they have. have. And so when everything needs a hammer because it's the only tool you have, you're kind of stuck with your action. Now, that said, Canada finds itself in a unique position now. And to Ben's point about investment in Alberta and investment sort of maybe lacking in other places, we are a country that should have the wealth of a thousand nations, just on the back of resources. Instead, we find ourselves unable to in a lot of ways tap that wealth because of certain, I would consider to be hostile actors. Premier EB comes to mind.

there are others as well. Next to the greatest economy and the greatest market, maybe that will ever exist, unable to engage with them on fair footing either, all while we embrace countries that share many of the same disastrous policy positions that landed us where we are today. And instead of maybe moving away from them, they're doubling down.

Instead of maybe going the correct direction on stuff like energy, immigration, they're doubling down. So I don't know that the government's actually interested in making a change at the policy level, certainly not at the level of principle. They may be forced into something that saves us from starvation down the line. But do I think they actually want to go that direction? I do not. I don't see any evidence to that.

And actually, I would say too that when I think about like Ontario, Ontario has become entirely financialized on the back of real estate. I still don't see any politicians talking seriously about lowering the cost of real estate, federal or provincial. I don't see anyone doing that. What I see instead is, you know, Ben, you would know more about this, the sort of federal pseudo bailout for the precondons all over the GTA. This is not a government interested in changing directions, I don't think.

I'd be curious your thoughts. So let's bucket that. I agree 100% with your take on what's happening on the housing space in Ontario. And we can come back to that. I have no issue there. I guess I would ask you, when you say that you see no signs that they're serious about kind of reforming population, immigration, or kind of unsticking some of the energy production in Alberta.

Like what makes you come to that conclusion? Because I actually, I don't see that at all. I think there is a change. I see, you know, I can only really go on public communications. I will admit right off the hop here that the data is not something that I'm able to analyze as closely as you. But I don't see the prime minister specifically and Ottawa specifically taking seriously in public comms the threat that British Columbia poses to new pipelines. I see MOUs that so far have not materialized to any shovels in the ground. I see a continued effort, like I said, to partner with Europe and its nations that have the opposite view that I think the three of us have on what energy independence should mean and can mean in Canada.

And I see premiers and municipal politicians as well and all the big municipalities, whether it's in the prairies or on the west side of the country, speaking in the same tongue. They're saying all the same things about we will not allow pipelines. It's indigenous engagement. Everything is more important than energy independence for this country. And I think if you look at the pecking order, I think you'd have a hard time. Even if you do think that directionally they might be interested in the change, I think you'd have a hard time convincing anybody that it's near the top of the pecking order for any of the provincial or federal governments.

Okay, so let's first of all, if you bucket down, so let me just set aside the immigration discussion because I think categorically the government's done a 180 on immigration. And by all accounts, they've not fully righted the ship. And there's glaring issues, especially with as it relates to, you know, refugee. Any asylum seekers, enormous fraud in that space. Okay. But but, but, but, but that, that will be reformed, I believe, probably this year. But setting that aside, I mean, they've absolutely tightened up temporary residents,

like any sort of work permits, international students. They've absolutely tightened that up. So we, we can set that one aside. On the energy file, I hear what you're saying. I do think to an extent there's limits to what the federal government can just ram through judicially. And so there is sort of an order of operations that has to happen. I would sort of defer to a couple things. Like, first of all, the energy minister in the feds is a very legitimate guy.

He comes out of the oil sands. He's a very real energy player. He's not some wacko like Gilbo who's out there just, spouting platitudes. This is a real industry guy. And I also would say that the fact that you've got Premier Smith in Alberta, openly lauding the government's moves, recognizing that there are impediments to getting from point A to point B, but that they are at least trying from their end to push the ball forward, I think is positive. And also, I would also just point out that we just had the craziest green leftist, kind of the head of the,

the sort of Green Brigade here in Canada resign from the Prime Minister's Cabinet. So Stephen Gilboe, who I would consider one of the most dangerous men in the country in terms of sabotaging industry, he's gone because he's pissed off at the direction of the feds. None of that says to me that this is the status quo from what we had under Trudeau. So I do think that your point around it moving slower than everyone would have wanted is absolutely fair. I don't know how much of that you can lay at the feet of this federal government, given that there's, to your point, other levels of government sort of throwing sand in the gear.

I want to kind of jump in there for a second, Ben, and get your thoughts on this. So in terms of Canada, one, in terms of Canada being in a technical recession, but is kind of space across the country, what levers do you think they're necessarily going to try and pull to to relieve that, if any, at all? So we've got real estate declining. We're going to come to that for sure. So we've got real estate declining. You've got energy prices not coming down, which at least will impact Alberta revenue

to some extent, but not too much is still profitable. Like I'm wondering, so a friend of the show, Duneberg, I just spoke with him a while ago, he laid out a very interesting kind of hypothesis that the, a constitutional crisis with Alberta independence would be the justification to put through a energy pipeline, for basically them to force it through, to make EB kind of have to deal with it. We've got the referendum on a referendum coming up here in October, but I'm wondering, like, do they increase immigration again? Do they try to do basically QE via basically human QE by getting those numbers back up?

Do they turn around on the immigration policy? Do they try to push through a pipeline and get energy to market? Do they, does the Bank of Canada cut despite everything that's going on? What levers do you see them or how do you kind of game out how they're going to proceed with the information that they have? Okay, so I think before you can get to that discussion, we got to lay out, because a lot of this is going to hinge on monetary policy. What is the Bank of Canada going to do? And on that point, like I've made an argument since the conflict in Iran began that this is really binary, right? So there's one or two options.

either we're going to get into midsummer and if the conflict is still ongoing and energy prices are still high and if we then start to see inflation expectations from consumers tick up, the bank Canada will start hiking this fall. Now, at this point, it looks like that's less likely given some of the developments, but set that aside. On the flip side, if there's visibility to an end in the conflict and a sort of normalization in energy prices, then the bank canon will look through the high inflation that's coming. We know that inflation is going to come in hot for the next four or five months. The bank can not going to care about that if they can credibly see an end to it.

And so in that situation, they will not hike. And if anything, we may see a cut kind of later this year early next if the economy continues to soften. So that's really going to be the first sort of big decision tree that they've got ahead of them. In terms of what else can happen, normally when you get to recession, the federal government will will spend and stimulate. The problem is right now, you know, we're running extremely high deficits, not just at a federal level, but, but in all provinces. And so there's, in a lot of ways, there's already a lot of stimulus in the system. And it's sort of barely keeping the economy afloat. Like, we would already be in a very significant recession, I believe, were it not for the impact

of all this fiscal spending. Does that include? So I don't know how much more they can do. Sorry, just want to throw into it into it. Public sector employment is very high. So, so, so I track a lot of metrics that strip out public sector, right? So if you look at, for example, the number of active businesses in the country, and then you back out any that are sort of public sector adjacent, so like healthcare, that type of stuff, education, deeply negative, falling. So we're losing businesses once you strip out that, right? And then it's the same thing with payrolls. If you strip out anything related to the public sector, they're deeply negative. Like they're falling. So we have less private sector employment in the country than we did a year ago. That never happens outside

a recession. So my point is just I don't know how much more they can do on the fiscal side unless they're really willing to roll open the floodgates, which I don't get the sense they're going to right now. And then on the immigration stuff, I do not see an appetite anywhere to reverse course on this whole immigration file. I think if anything, the public sentiment is deeply stacked against them. And I would say that I think the liberals are well aware that had Trump not said 51st state, the election issue would have been immigration. Yeah. Like I firmly believe that. That was the hot button issue.

And they just dodged a bullet that they got Trump to come out and say fifth first state. And it coalesced the support around Carney. I don't know that they want to risk that again. One would, one wonders. But my point is just I think they played with fire under the Trudeau years. Everyone in Canada, everyone, including people on the far. left, and I recognize that was probably a bit too much to say the least. I don't think they have any interest in opening that can-orums again. So the point is, I don't know what they can do in the interim.

I think it's just going to be, we sort of have to grind through this until next year. Now, the other unknown in all of this is we've got the Kuzma negotiations. Yeah. That are going to be firing up. And that's a big unknown. Like if that gets resolved and we get some sort of a trade deal, even if it's not a great trade deal, if we get a bit of stability, that's going to help Ontario a lot. right? Like that that alone will bring some confidence back. Even if it's not an amazing deal, once businesses know what we're dealing with, they can sort of start moving forward. But man, if it's a if it's a really bad outcome or if they can't get a deal, like man, there's, there's real problems coming, especially for kind of central Canada.

Quickly, Joy, before I get your thoughts, I want to throw in there as well too, just in terms of the like pig in the Python with the data, Ben, I'm hoping you might have some insight into this because I'm not sure how fast the CPI metrics that the Bank of Canada looks at will respond. bond to energy, but also I feel like, if I'm not mistaken, the real estate metrics they've been looking at are up. They're not reflective of what we're seeing on like realtor.ca and in rental prices. So we might actually have this declining real estate component, housing component within there that might save them from having to hike. I'm just curious how you see that flow, if that makes sense. Yeah, it don't make sense. So, you know, there's a lot of nuance here because

at various points in time, the Bank of Canada sort of hinted that they're making, because let me let me in packs up for a moment. The Bank of Canada's mandate is inflation. Their mandate is to keep inflation between 1 and 3%. That's different than in the U.S. where they have a dual mandate to both keep inflation in check and keep employment at healthy levels. So the bank account only deals with inflation. Now, the interesting question then is, well, which measure of inflation are they targeting? Because at different points in time, they've sort of hinted that they are going to respond to headline inflation, which is what you'll see CBC report, or what we call core inflation, which strips out things like energy. prices that are very volatile. And so, you know, at different points of time, they've sort of hinted

that they were leaning on one or the other. The reason this matters right now is core inflation, once you strip out things like energy, it's actually really low. It's not a concern at all. But headline inflation will definitely be above that 3% threshold and will be rising in the next few months. So, you know, I'm not sure how they're going to think about it, but your point is a good one that a lot of the energy input or a lot of the CPI input coming up is entirely related to energy. But it comes back again to kind of that key thing that I mentioned before, which is that they're going to respond to inflation expectations over the summer. If energy prices are high and inflation expectations start to rise, they will hike.

If those things don't happen, they won't hike. It's like it's a really binary outcome and it's all going to hinge on one really key data point that comes out in July, which is the survey of consumer expectations, which will detail inflation expectations. So that's the thing to watch. Joe, your thoughts? I just want to give Ben some flowers for noting that the bank of Canada is a single mandate bank. I don't think a lot of commentators on everyone's favorite bird app realize that the Bank of Canada does not have an economic mandate in terms of jobs or employment or any of these things. Now, they are flexible because of core versus headline, which is, you know, obviously

where they try and make their money, you know, in terms of their value to the, their value to the, the Canadian public. I don't know if you have a view on this, Ben, but what I keep hearing when it comes to the jobs data especially is that the number, you know, there's a lot of people, David Cochran, Rosie Barton, the usual suspects will say technical inflation

is not something you should be worried about. Households obviously would feel differently. And the CFIB noted that a lot of these like small, you know, SMB-type firms, these guys haven't had a good month, like an above-average month in close to six years now. So if you go through, you know, the COVID stretch, we're six years out from that, these guys have not had sort of a normal

business environment in that much time. We basically went right from the end of COVID to Trump's second term to now Kuzma being a burden, economic hardship hitting us through population decline and things of this nature. I think people are missing sort of the difference between what you're told on TV and what maybe your neighbors are feeling. And this goes to, you know, one of the things we've talked about Nathan on Bitcast and some other places that there is now. Now, there's a true case-shaped economy taking place now in between sections of the economy you wouldn't normally see. It's not necessarily just homeowners, non-homeowners, asset owners, non-asset owners.

It's public sector versus private sector people who are employed in those two, you know, those two sectors. It is people who feel good about continuing to teach, for example, or in these adjacent businesses. It's funny, the Canadian government is famous for subsidized. many, many businesses, including, by the way, energy and manufacturing, which are both suffering a little bit right now in Ontario, at least manufacturing is. These guys are trying to keep the ship afloat, but so far have not done a great job, and they're trying their best to make that data look appealing to investors.

I'd be curious, Ben, like, when you say there's going to be a Kuzma deal or maybe there's a Kuzma deal that ramps up investment in a place like Ontario or stabilizes things in Ontario, two questions, I guess. One, what does that deal look like to you? And two, is it still stabilizing if it's only a bilateral agreement instead of a full, you know, North American trade deal? Yeah, great question on the trilateral. I'm not sure. I think, look, our number one trading partner is the U.S.

Everything else is effectively rounding here. And that's especially true when you're dealing with manufacturing Central Ontario. Yeah. Like Central Canada, like Ontario, Quebec. My point is simply, like you are right. When you isolate confidence in Canada, both business confidence and consumer confidence, It is so unbelievably low right now. Like I would say it's irrationally low.

Like consumer confidence is a great example. We are today, according to every metric, consumer confidence is as low as it was during the depths of the pandemic when we were all locked down. For all we knew, we were all going to die from this novel pathogen. And it's as low as it was during the depths of the financial crisis when there was a very real risk that the financial system was going to melt down. We are as pessimistic today as we were then. That doesn't make any sense, but you can't argue with people. Yeah, exactly if he guesses as to why? You know what?

There's been, so we see this in the U.S. as well. So it's not like it's just isolated to Canada. There's a number of theories floating around, and I don't know exactly what it is. I think one of them is that people feel it. To your point, Joe, people are feeling it in the pocketbook where they're like, I can't afford things that I used to be able to afford. This doesn't make sense. All the headline data suggests that the country is fine, but like I feel like I'm falling behind.

I think that's a real thing where we're not measuring inflation properly and people are feeling that. And especially you made a great point, that whole concept of the K shape. If you're in that kind of bottom part of the K, I mean, you're really feeling it and you're kind of being lost in that headline economic data. I think that's one thing. The other thing that I just, I don't know, I don't know how much sort of truth there is to this, but there's sort of a growing, I don't know, thought process that maybe what we're seeing is also somewhat related to social media. And just the fact that like when you're on social media, you have a view that like everyone's crushing it but me. I suck. Right.

Like it's just like and there's so much negativity and the algorithms amplify things that they get, you know, get engagement like negative comments. So there's something to that because, you know, I mean, look, well, I shouldn't say there's something to that. I think there's, it's a compelling thought process. So I think there's kind of those two things happening. But the point is it's so unbelievably low. and the same is true of business sentiment broadly, that I don't think it's going to get, it's not going to take much to see that reverse.

In general, when you see things that are sitting at like 20, 30 year lows in economic data series, you kind of look at it and go, okay, it's like a coiled spring where the next move is probably to the upside, right? And I think that's true of confidence. So to tie it back to the whole Q'sman negotiation, I don't think we need a great deal. Like if the Trump administration comes out and says,

okay, it's 10% tariffs across the board on everything you, produce, deal with it. I think at that point, every business owner can be like, okay, well, we don't love it, but now we know what we're dealing with. We can calibrate, we can, and let's go forward. Whereas as it stands right now, no one's investing in expanding production. No one's investing in any new factories because we just don't know. Like it could be a 50%. It could just be we're done with any trade deal. So my point is you just don't need a great trade deal. You just need some stability. And I think that alone will start to to bring things.

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across the world that you never would have before it and it might distort your view on how things are going. You're getting a flood of it. Like everybody's a trader now. Everyone's got a whole bunch of financial information that's coming from your wonderful Twitter handle and Steve and all the other guys out there. We all are well aware of what's happening. It might kind of up the angst from a consumer side. I do want to pivot for a second. So I'm sure we touch on. credit in the country right now as well as real estate. Because of course, that being your main, your big focus. So what exactly, I think we're at like a decline in real estate we haven't seen since the

80s. I think I saw you post on Twitter. There's a Brampton house that was down 54% from like the last time it moved her a couple years back. What's going on in Canadian real estate right now? How bad is it? And also, do you have any information on the US? Is the US having some problems as well too? Is it comparable in any way or is this isolated to Canada? Okay, so let's start with the first point about just Canadian real estate market. It's almost a misnomer when you look at the data. It's a weird situation where as we speak here today, we have a number of major metros across the country that are still at record high house prices and are seeing

near double-digit appreciation. So like, you have parts of the country that's still very strong. So that's the Quebec cities, the Halifax. Anything in Saskatchewan is on fire, parts of Manitoba. Even the like Alberta is off peak, but not. like not a deep decline or anything. And then concurrent to that, you've got parts of Ontario where prices down 30,

35% from peak. And where we are seeing like a number of examples of homes that are selling under power of sale or court ordered sale for half of what they sold for back in 2021, 2021, 2022. So we've never seen that before. So, you know, NBC's kind of similar trajectory, they haven't fallen quite as far as Ontario,

but you're seeing prices really melt out there. So you aggregate, you throw all that in the pot and it spits out like a 20% price decline from peak, which to your point is the steepest we've seen since at least the early 90s, if not even earlier, depending on how you measure it. But that really hides the fact that that's not everywhere, right? And so there is no Canadian housing market right now.

It is more than it's ever been, it's highly geographically based, based on prevailing trends. So all that said, like, you know, if you're in southern Ontario and you're trying to sell a home, it's not easy right now. And you are selling it for way less than you would have a year ago, two years ago, especially four years ago. And the same is true in BC. I'm kind of to the point now where I'm just not that I'm not nearly as bearish as I think most people are.

Like I don't think there's a lot more downside to prices at this point for a number of reasons that we can discuss. And that's particularly true for single family. I actually think that in the next few months, you're going to start to see single family in places like Ontario start to stabilize where prices will start kind of grinding sideways. I'm less convinced that that's going to be true in BC. I think probably there's more downside to BC because of some of the land claim issues and just some of the weak, weak fundamentals out there. But yeah, I think single family is probably going to come to find a bottom in the next kind of three, six months. And then it's just going to chop sideways. I'm not bullish on housing, but I could see a scenario where two, three years for now,

we're here in prices are exactly where they are now. The bulls are pissed. The bears are pissed. Everybody's just frustrated at this market. And that's, by the way, that's really how things played out in the late 80s, early 90s, the last really big housing cycle we had in this country. We had a three, four year period where prices declined sharply. And then they went sideways for seven or eight years. And a lot of the affordability gains came from just incomes doing better over time, right?

Replacement costs going up, inflation running. and prices moving sideways. And I could see a scenario that's the same as well. So I'm just like I kind of find myself today not nearly as bearish as most people, even though I was incredibly bearish for years prior to the peak. I just, I don't see the impetus barring like a truly catastrophic recession,

you know, in which case all bets are off. I just, I don't think there's a ton more downside from here for prices nationally. No, that makes sense. Joey, I want to get your thoughts, but I want to throw in there too. It seems like the only way you could possibly make housing affordable and thread that needle without completely pissing off and screwing over the boomers retirement would be just down in real terms, just nominally

flat for years and down in real terms. But, Joy, I want to get your input there. I actually want to ask you a question, Ben. You know, there's probably three or four buckets of real estate interested avatars. Let's say there's the boomers who own the Xs who own the millennials who own the millennials who don't and the zoomers who, for the most part, don't. How should each of those sort of sections think about real estate going forward? The boomers are consistent. considering it or have considered it predominantly an investment vehicle. This was the thing to do to save money to preserve purchasing power. And also, in some cases, you know, taking this retirement risk as well, how should they think about their ideas going forward? Some of these boomers now are aging into their

70s, 80s, and thinking about maybe downsizing, continuing to use that as a bank account. Should they continue doing that is a time to start getting out, time to start thinking about doing other things? And then maybe the other advertisers as well, I will just add that I think you know, I really do agree with your point about single family homes. In the area that I live in Southern Ontario, I live in Dundas. It's a nice little community. We are seeing single family homes maintain value, not go up, but they are maintaining value. And I think there's something to be said for this idea of community pricing where, you know, in downtown Toronto, it's difficult to maintain a 500 square foot shoebox condo at all-time highs when, you know, rates, like you mentioned,

potentially going up. There's not really much you can do in terms of family formation, these things are becoming, I think, a little more valuable to most people as time goes on. And so I do expect that you're going to be proven correct about the prices of those condos, those communities and a single family too. But anyway, I want to get your thoughts on how should people be thinking about their home investment going forward? Do a great question. And I think, first of all, if you kind of sketch the landscape, if you look at the home ownership rate in the under 40 cohort, it's fallen dramatically between the last two censuses. And so, and at the same time, most people think that like the boomers

of the largest cohort in the country, it's like the plus 75, plus 65, whatever it might be. It's not. The three largest age groups, if you bucket them by five year bands is 30 to 35, sorry, 25 to 30, 30 to 35 to 40. So it's like 25 to 40 year olds represent the largest block in the country. And you've seen a dramatic decline in the homeownership rate within that cohort. So another way of saying that is there is pent up buying demand from first-time home buyers. We know that's true. All the surveys suggest that. So they want to buy.

It's an affordability issue. On the other end of the spectrum, to your point, you've got the older boomers that still own. And the most recent census, which was as the 2021, would suggest that as we stand here today, somewhere close to a quarter of all detached homes in Ontario and BC are owned by people over 75 years old. And it may be as many as one in nine or over 80. The point is we have dramatically over-indexed homeownership in that coveted detached space to this older cohort. And the big story for the 2030s will be the transfer of ownership between that cohort that has to sell. and the first-time buyer is that kind of under 40-court that wants to buy.

And the only question is at what price point does that happen? Now, you would hear that and you might think, well, that's extremely bearish that you have that much supply that has to sell. And I think that's probably true. The issue is, if you look at what's happening with development right now, building permits, so construction intention for single-family homes, are the lowest they've been in 50 years here in Ontario. So there's no new supply coming.

There's no new single supply coming. Like it's unbelievable how little supply is in the pipeline. And so I think what we're going to see over the next number of years is this constant flow of supply coming from that older cohort into the market. That will keep resale inventory relatively high. But at the same time, demand from first-time buyers will be quite high as well. So that's why I kind of land on this scenario where we go through a number of years where just nothing happens in the market. it stays well supplied. There's no upward momentum in prices, but it's not a collapse because I do think there's a lot of underlying demand for first-time buyers.

In the middle, I don't know. Beyond that, you know, it's probably going to be kind of just a steady status quo. I think we'll get to a point in five years where people just forget about housing. They don't care about it anymore. And that's probably, you know, once everyone, it's like with Bitcoin, once everybody stops talking about people get bored of it, like it finds the bottom and it's then the new cycle starts. And that's probably for housing, it's probably going to be like five years from now. Sorry, I was going to say, before we started recording, you said you didn't know anything about Bitcoin. Now, here you are laying into us. Unbelievable. Call on the bottom. Okay. So I have one follow up for you. One of the things I can't understand, this could be a lack of information understanding on my part, but I'm sure you'd be able to tell me if that's the truth. What mechanisms have to change in terms of like mortgage affordability for the boomers to pass down these million dollar homes to millennials, zoomers, who I think the data says have less savings than ever.

before. How do you match those two groups together to get these sales done? Yeah. So that is the million dollar question. At what price point will these all transact? Because they will have to transact. It may well be that, you know, like again, five years from now many prices are exactly where they are right now. And if you get persistent inflation, that that's going to help restore some of the affordability. There's kind of two things that I would say. First of all, affordability is not great right now in Canada. We kind of know that. But I think most people would be surprised to note that we're basically, we've unwound all of the unaffordability that we got coming out of the pandemic.

So in other words, if you look at like mortgage payments as a percentage of income on a new, newly purchased home, they're basically back to where they were in kind of 2019. And we're only moderately above that kind of 2015 to 2020 period for afford to it. So like it's bad. It's not great. But it's improving sharply. And I would point out that it's at a level today. that the last time that we saw affordability levels,

home sales were like 50, 60% higher than there currently. So there's a lot of room for sales to perk up, even with affordability not great. And I think that's probably what people will be surprised that sales, we just saw it last month, like you had a pretty good month for home sales. Like, where did that come from? It's that we're to a point where affordability doesn't suck for everybody.

There's enough people that are starting to transact. The bigger issue, I believe, that more than the affordability in terms of monthly payments, The number one obstacle for young people get into this market is actually saving the down payment. Yeah. And I am incredibly bearish on rentals. I think that rents nationally are going to grind lower for years. I was probably the first person two years ago warning that we would see a significant

softening in rents that people didn't fully appreciate. I still think people don't appreciate that. Rents will be weak for years. If you're an investor in this market, you're not going to have a fun few years coming up. But if you're a first-time buyer, I think it's great. Great. One of the charts that I track or data points that I track is that rents paid as a share of total consumer spending in Canada. And we're basically at all time highs. We were. And it started to roll over. And what that tells me is that for young people, they were allocating such a high amount of their income to rents, that it became really difficult to save that down payment. And also, as an aside, it became really difficult for them to save capital to start businesses and do other productive things. And that's part of the reason why productivity has been shit for so long in this country. Having a weak rental market, it solves a lot of those problems. And so if you get a situation where house prices go flat for a number of years,

rents fall for a number of years. Incomes are okay, hopefully, knock on wood. Then I think that's going to do a lot of the heavy lifting around affordability around and saving that down payment. No, that's a wonderful insight there. That would be the hope, right? Because that is probably the hardest part, especially like I'm in Alberta, but looking at the Ontario market, like, if you got to save up even just 5%, well, you can't actually

with the loans, yeah, 5% for a million dollar home. That's going to take you quite a while to actually accumulate that chunk of change. I wanted to quickly add in there, Ben, and get your thoughts on us. Do you have any information, if not, that's totally fine, on the U.S. housing market? Is it going through a similar transition to Canada right now, or is there something different going on there? Yeah, so there's a bit different. I would say that in the U.S., it's almost a frozen market right now. One of the things that's unique in the U.S. market is they can lock in for 30-year terms on their mortgages.

So they can lock in rates. And that's great in one sense. But what it also does, they don't have portable mortgages. You can't, we're here in Canada, you could port your mortgage. You can get a whatever, 3.2% mortgage. Two years later, you want to move. You can bring that mortgage and put it on the, that new home becomes the collateral for that same mortgage.

That legal structure does not exist in the U.S. And the reason that's important then is when you go through a period where rates were incredibly low like they had coming out of COVID, well, everybody just refinanced and locked in those super low rates. And what that does is you fast forward to today time where rates are, I mean, I don't know, high six is sevens or something in the U.S. right now. No one's going to move because you have to break your 4% mortgage and take on a seven to be able to move. And so consequently, that just removes all liquidity from the market. There's very few home sales happening, very few listings. Builders aren't really building a ton. So it's just kind of a weird moment in

the U.S. And again, I'm not an expert on American real estate. So I could, I'm speaking as a, you know, outside observer, but from what I see that that's a major dynamic, it's just effectively froze in that entire market. They have some affordability issues as well, that are not nearly as pronounced as we have here in Canada, but are certainly affecting demand in some areas. But I just think that really it's just like you got to go through a number of years where that market's going to be frozen before you start seeing things transact again. No, that makes sense. I forgot about that because I was just looking at the 30 year treasury, not that long ago. We're sitting at like 5%, which means, yeah, your mortgage rates are going to be like

six, seven. Why would you possibly leave and you got 30 years at 4%, that you might even be basically making out ahead, kind of close to free money. The other couple things I want to make sure we hit on, we had the immigration fraud. I want to take on that. But even before that, talking about the U.S. I saw recently that I think it was U.S. credit card delinquencies on 90-day credit card delinquencies were up to 15-year high. But my understanding is we're having some credit problems in Canada here as well, too.

Yeah, we're not quite at 15-year highs, but we are trending higher. I track card charge-offs from a number of credit card trusts that report monthly. and they're up to decade highs for sure. We're at a point where consumer insolvencies are back to the highest level we've seen since the financial crisis. Like everything on the credit side is sort of telling the same story, which is just this long, slow burn. It's not like it's imploding,

but just every month there's just a few more people falling behind on the mortgage, a few more people, a few more people, where it's really pronounced is in Ontario. So when we're seeing what parts of the country are seeing credit deteriorate the most, it is definitely Ontario. And it's especially in that kind of like the highly, I mean, this, you know, of course this is true. It's the people who took on the largest mortgage, right? So when you actually bucket mortgage delinquencies by kind of like loan amount, most are relatively flat.

And then you've got like anyone that took on a mortgage of $6,000 and $50,000 or more, those delinquencies are like, they're like hawking sticking higher. And so, you know, there's certainly pockets of stress in parts of the country. but from a high level, it just looks like a slow burn every month, just a little worse, a little worse, a little worse. You also see that from the bank earnings. Like they all report gross impaired loans domestically. They're all just every quarter, just a little bit higher, a little bit higher, not a disaster, but a little bit higher. And, you know, we'll see. It certainly is one of those things where it's highly tenuous.

If we get into a situation where we really do start to see job losses intensify, if we get, if those Kuzman negotiations go really sideways, you know, the, I would say the Tinder is all there. for a really bad bonfire, right? Or some sort of a wildfire in the Canadian economy. The Tinder is there. It's just kind of looking for a spark. Interesting, Joey, your thoughts? A question for you, Ben.

I mean, a lot of people talk about loan loss provisions at the bank level. What do they look like and how much stock do you put in that in terms of, you know, are they accurate in terms of predictive power? No, I'm not a big fan of using loan loss provisions as sort of a measure of what's happening in the economy. I mean, there's a lot of, when you understand how the banks establish their loan loss provisions, it's a lot of modeling based on backwards-looking losses. So it's like what's happened in the past in the last few years dictates kind of their expectations going forward.

I'm not a believer in that. I, you know, the banks in Canada are highly diversified businesses. They can pull revenue from a lot of different sources. But then also more importantly, they're kind of a black box as it relates to how they can sort of massage their earnings quarter to quarter through things like loan loss provisions. To me, the more important trend is if we just look at like what's actually happening with their delinquencies, right? Because you can massage things quarter to quarter. But if every quarter more and more loans are going delinquent on your book, like eventually that has to matter. Right. And that's kind of where I'm at like, but having said that, like you look at

these Canadian bank stocks are at all time highs. They're just rocketing higher. And I think, you know, it's interesting because like I'm not really bearish on credit or I'm sorry, I'm not bullish on credit at all in Canada and yet these banks keep making new highs. And I think part of that is just that, you know, there is a repatriation trade at play. Like I do talk to big institutions. And so I know that you're seeing some of these big institutions bring their money back to Canada. Some big pension funds, mutual fund companies. Yeah, believe it or not, there, I know you guys hate to hear this, but there is a view internationally that Canada is a little more open to business than they were under Trudeau. And I know people hate hearing that, but I'm just telling you, it's a, it's a less,

investor antagonistic landscape than it was a few years ago. And I also think that some people would view that the potential for growth is still maybe understated in Canada over the longer term. Well, if you're a big pool of capital and you bring money back into Canada, like there's only a handful of places you can put it that can absorb it. And the first place it goes is into the big banks. In terms of growth in Canada, I'm just kind of curious, where do you see is the best opportunities? Where do you think actually could see growth over the next couple of years? Which industries? Well, I mean, I think if we can get our, we get our shit together, it should be the energy space, right?

I mean, I think the world is, and not only that, but I think, you know, there is going to be this kind of concept of friend shoring of integrated supply chains. You know, as much as we complain about our American neighbors, as much as we like to talk in Canada about integrating with Europe, which is absolutely bonkers. The reality is that like. Or New Zealand, I think I saw at one point. Like, it's just all this. I mean, it's just all bullshit. Like, we are tied at the hip to the Americans. We always will be.

We have spats periodically. This is a particularly bad one, but we're going to get through this. We're 10 years from now. We will still be the closest relationship in the world. They need our resources. They don't want to be securing critical minerals from China that they need for their weapons manufacturing. Of course it should be us. So all this stuff, like you just think logically, get all this crap behind us, get on more firm footing.

It benefits, I think, a lot of the natural resource plays here in Canada, longer term. Coin Kite has been in the game for years creating hands down the best and most secure hardware when it comes to securing your Bitcoin. The cold card Q is an absolute powerhouse and my daily driver, and it's ideal for newcomers and advanced users alike. The tap signer gives you a low-cost, user-friendly option for those just getting started or for convenience when traveling. You can head to coinkite.com and use code BTC sessions for discounts,

or simply scan the QR code on the screen to get started right away. One company I like pointing people to when they ask about Bitcoin mining is abundant mines. They were founded by Bo and Christine Turner after losing over half a million dollars to broken promises in the mining industry, and they built their hosting model to remove the usual headaches. With abundant mines, you own your machines and keep 100% of the Bitcoin you mine. There's no revenue share, no hidden skim. pricing is simple. One flat monthly fee covers power, parts, labor, and repairs. They also guarantee uptime. The machine goes down, their hash rate redirect system, routes hash power from their fleet, so earnings don't just stop. And every machine is insured at full replacement value. Everything is hosted in the U.S., powered by hydro, and mining equipment may qualify for 100% Year 1 bonus depreciation. Learn more at abundant mines.com sessions. Before I touch on just the immigration stuff that you've highlighted over this year as well,

I just want to know, do you have any thoughts on BLC22 in terms of the surveillance that the government's pushing forward as well as their new AI for all? Did you see how many times it said indigenous versus like every other possible word? Yeah, I flagged that. That was hilarious. So the AI one was really funny because I highlighted two things. One was, I don't want to mess this up, But one was something like the term equality showed up more than the term GPU. GPU is three times. Data center was 15. Right.

And I think like equality was like, right. And then there was, uh, or equity, whatever the word was. And then there was indigenous showed up more than like power state. Like like really important. Yeah. As it relates to AI. And you could see that like there was still kind of this, in Ottawa, this, you know, desire, this kind of social justice.

narrative that underpins everything. And look, it's, it's disappointing because AI is the potentially most disruptive technology we've ever seen. It's very serious. And we're still fucking around with this stupid equity nonsense out of Ottawa when, like, we're dealing with really serious topics with AI. Like, you want serious people. You don't want a guy that's got like a degree in art history, which is what we've got.

I mean, guys like a career in broadcasting that your AIs are in Canada. Like what? Really? Yeah. Yeah. Oh, geez, I completely missed that. That's a terrible idea. We have computer scientists here.

We have engineers. Anybody thought I talking to them? Right. You have highly competent people. And yet it's the one thing that I, well, among the number of things, but it's probably the thing I'm most frustrated about when I look at the current government is he just keeps putting these jackasses in these really key positions. It's like the immigration ministers just absolutely way out of her depth.

And that's not, that's following in a long line of really incompetent immigration ministers. So she's not like that's new. And then you've got this AI minister, Evan Solomon, like whatever, nice guy, good broadcaster. I'm sorry. Way out of his depth intellectually on AI. Bring in somebody with some confidence. Like, Jesus, this is like a serious thing. Right.

So that was incredibly frustrating. Around the bill C22, is that the one the, okay. So as a father of a teenage daughter, I am incredibly concerned about some of the impacts social media has on just the mental state. I think it's criminal that we can have these social media platforms weaponize the algorithm and be like, hey, you're contemplating self-harm? Here's some videos that show you how to do it. Oh, you're insecure about how you look. Here's some crazy dieting tips for you. Like, that's insane.

So I'm sympathetic to the view that there needs to be a level of protection there. I think what they've done is completely backwards. To me, the way that you achieve this is you remove some of the protections around. these social media platforms where they are now personally liable if they are going to elevate certain content for engagement. And that's the way that we deal with this. We just hit them with enormous monetary fines. If you're going to show a girl who you know through your algorithm is suffering from, you know, potentially an eating disorder or, you know, is viewing themselves in an unhealthy light. And you're going to take that and weaponize it and show them content that

you know we'll get their engagement, but it's self-harming. Fuck you. You need to pay for that. The answer is not, let's just add like digital ID on everybody in the country. We just need to come down really hard on these social media platforms. And that's, again, like, so I'm sympathetic as a father, very concerned about the impact this has on my own kids. But to me, this is not the way to approach this. Yeah.

No, I like the interesting, well, I have mixed feelings even about having like corporations and not having people be personally liable to things that their business does. that I'm very sympathetic to that view but not even just that so yeah we've got the under 16 ban for social media coming down the pipe which the UK just did on a like a very quick turnaround in Australia is already doing but even beyond that in C22 I was talking to Michael Geist

about this the and it's coming from the RCMP they're basically pushing for backdoors in encryption that they can go through all of your communications without awarded yep so this feels like one of those things where it's like you identify a very real problem

And I don't know if you guys have kids in that age group, but as somebody that... So like, you know, this is a real... Okay, so years are still younger. I'm telling you, when they become young teenagers or early teen years, it's a real battle, man. And there's a lot of really terrible stuff. I'm thinking Malinowa Farm, probably the best tactic. Right. But that's the sort of thing where the governments actually put their finger on a real problem.

And then, but then they've taken that and they've attached all this other nonsense to it and kind of use this real problem as an excuse to backdoor all this other crap that's not necessary. And I worry about that. So I don't know what the right answer is, but it's not what they've landed on here. You got to know, Joe, your thoughts? Yeah, I think they do know what the right answer is, and that's why they've done this framing. You know, there's two surveys out in the UK that are floating around now from the last few years. One is, are you in favor of broad sweeping digital identification that you can use to make your life easier?

Overwhelming, no. Every demographic, gender, social status doesn't matter. But when you ask them about banning kids under 16 from social media, it's overwhelming. Yes. And so they've done both of these control groups, focus groups, because the end goal is identifying people. And Ben, use there some flowers for this because I think you've, you know, not speak out of a turn. You've come out of your shell a little bit on the importance and impact. These will have socially, these policies, you, the Looney Hour guys, Michael Geist, David Frazier, some other guys who are generally measured and moderate are starting to really take note and be

vocal and use their platform in a way that's productive to inform people that, yeah, these These are dangerous policies that you don't ever see unwound is the big thing. Both parties in Canada are voting for this. Polyez conservatives are silent on this issue. And this is the kind of thing you can push through when you have an AI minister like Evan Solomon. If you put an art dealer in a seat that is probably the most important ministerial position, maybe outside of energy for the moment, you're going to get a yes man. I think everyone knows.

If you don't know, the relationship between Prime Minister Carney and Evan Solomon actually dates back to the reason Evan was fired from the CBC, you may know this man, he sold art to Prime Minister Carney after he was a guest on power in politics. So, I mean, to say that this is anything short of a yes man is, I think, dishonest. And on the sort of digital identification front, there exists a risk in the UK and Canada anywhere these policies are rolling out that the adjacent bills around things like discouraging comments that are negative for social cohesion. These definitions are vague on purpose. And one of the things in C-22 and the other bills that you'll notice is the typical

arms length regulation and oversight you used to see from our government and others is being replaced by new bodies that are able to act unilaterally. There is no Senate review. There is no judicial review. There is nothing. They will set the rules. They will set the terms. And you will live by them.

It's just scary times, man. You know, Nathan and I both have younger kids, and I do appreciate the risks of social media. Certainly in my own life, you know, if I get caught in a doom scroll, I'm not as nice as I would have been if I had just gone to do some bench press or something. But I think we'd all agree that if I have to choose between me spending more time parenting and the government parenting, I'm going to land on me every single time. And I think most people would, right? And this is a difficult thing for a lot of parents, as we've discussed over the course of the last, you know, 50 minutes or or so, parents and Canadians in general are stretched thinner and thinner. And so the government finds these opportunities to say, we'll help you with this.

We'll give you a grocery rebate. We'll give you $10 day daycare. Oh, we'll help you with the Instagram algorithm if you want. You don't have time. That's a difficult social situation for a country to be in. And it's an unprecedented social situation for a country to be in. I don't want to be the guinea pig. I don't think anyone does.

But we find ourselves there anyway. It's important to be vocal about these things. No, I agree. Yeah. Look, you said that really well, Joey. I mean, the only thing I would push back slightly on is that, you know, you guys have young kids. I'm just telling you, it gets exponentially harder when they get into their teenage years to strictly moderate what they're taking in on social media. I mean, I'm just telling you, and I'm a very engaged parent, it's impossible.

And I don't like the idea that you can take these social media platforms and they can basically have the same protection that needs. media companies would have in terms of publishing, they have protection against being sued for content, right? And I forget the blanket term in the U.S. But it's a provision that, so these social media companies are considered media in what they publish. But yet they're using these incredibly powerful algorithms to elevate content that they know is dangerous to teens. To me, that that cannot stand. I agree with you on that. There needs to be something that's addressed there. But I also think you said it perfectly around just we cannot also. so seed some of these freedoms in the name of, you know, the government we're here to help

all this not, you know, you don't get those back. I think you're absolutely right there. No, I completely agree. Ben, I want to be respectful of your time, but before I let you go, we did mention earlier, so I just want to make sure we highlight quickly. You've previously highlighted, and we talked even lightly on immigration fraud going on in Canada. For anyone who might not be aware what is happening there, what's the story? Well, there's a lot happening there. I mean, there's a few things that I was talking about pretty early on. By the way, I mean, I first started really ringing the bell around some of the issues in immigration back in 2021 when it really was not popular to do so. So I was called racist and

other manner of names. And I was testifying before standing committees and finance warning about this in terms of how it would impact the rental market, how a disproportionate, you know, low-income Canadians. A lot of that related to just this boom in temporary residence, right? We saw a surge in international students, a surge in temporary workers. Every Tim Horton's owner in the world was like, oh, hey, I can just bring in a bunch of temporary workers. Some less scrupulous business owners were left, not only can I bring in temporary workers, I can charge them to work for me

because they need those points to eventually try to get PR. So there was a ton of fraud that was happening on that side. A lot of that has been cleaned up, or at least directionally is moving in the right direction. It's not perfect. The one glaring area that we have not dealt with yet is the asylum program. So this is refugees, anyone that comes here says, I can't go back because I'm at imminent risk of whatever.

And what's so frustrating to me is just to put some numbers on it. The latest data shows that we're up to 525,000 asylum seekers in the country today. Holy shit. What's the population of Saskatchewan? Like, well, let me put it to you this way. We have one asylum claimant for every 77 Canadians right now. That is crazy. That is unreal.

It's totally nuts. It's totally nuts. And that's tripled in the last three years, right? And we have a backlog. So within that through 525,000 is a backlog of 300,000 unprocessed claims. So the racket here is if you come to Canada and you shouldn't be here, let's say that you get caught trying to extort someone. We've got an extortion crisis in some of these South Asian communities in Ontario and BC right now.

We know the gangs involved. We know where they're from. They're primarily from India. They're bad actors. But the government, like, we'll catch these people in the act. Right. And then they'll say, well, you can't send me back because I'm at imminent risk. And they'll make a refugee claim.

I'm not joking, guys. This actually happened in BC. They are like border control grabbed these dozen people that were like shooting up buildings. And they're all like, oh, you can't send us back. No, this is absolutely happened. And they're like, you can't send us back. We're at imminent risk if you sent it. And they're, oh, okay.

And because you've got this backlog of 300,000 claims, it's going to be years where they can now legally stay in Canada while that gets adjudicated. That's bullshit. We need to figure that out. And so our asylum system has become a backdoor for all sorts of bad actors globally to come here and find legal grounds to operate in the country for years and years and years before that claim gets adjudicated. And then even once it is finally found that they're not allowed to stay, we have no real mechanism to get them out. So that all needs to get addressed. There's a number of really common sense approaches that we could do to help expedite that process. But right now that is like, it's just open door if you're a bad actor.

Is there an incentive? Like, why would we have that glaring loophole that's clearly being abused? Is there somebody that profits from this or somebody benefiting from this? Well, I mean, there's a whole industrial complex around sort of, you know, caring for and, and, you know, the services related to trying to get these people integrated into communities, etc. But I'm not sure if that's what it is as much as it just gets back to like just ineptitude. It was illegally an open door that was there.

And people just exploited on mass kind of coming out of COVID, especially once you had like Trudeau standing up there being like, you know, diversies or strength, we'll take everybody. You want to come here, just come. Like just to open invite and like, what do you expect is going to happen? Right. So, but I also think like because it's also somewhat related to the fact that we are trying to tighten up on things like like foreign students.

So one of the things that's so infuriating about the asylum program is when you look at like the share of asylum claimants. that are what we call inland claimants. So these are people who are already in Canada. So in one sense, you get people who will land at an airport who have fled a country where a war just broke out. And they can credibly, you know, the plain lands, they immediately go and they make a refugee claim.

They're like, I'm here. I'm just trying to find safety for my family. Okay, that's like, that's legitimate. Okay, I mean, we've accepted that for years. We need to have a measured amount of that, but that's a legitimate claim. And I think most Canadians are supportive of that, right? you get some, you know, woman and her kids trying to flee some war-torn country.

Whatever, we get that. What's infuriating is you now have all these inland claims that are coming from people who have already been in the country. So what this is is primarily like international students being like, oh, my study visa is up. I don't really want to go back. I just suddenly realize I'm gay. And I can't go back to my country because, no, I'm not even joking. This is like the thing.

It's like I didn't declare refugee status for two years while I was studying. Now my permits expired. I can't go back because I'm gay. Like, this shit happens all the time. And so you see, like, there's an explosion of inland claimants. So, like, a really simple thing would be, we just don't allow that. Like, if you've been in the country for two years and you haven't made a refugee claim, you don't get to make it now once your permit expires.

Like, just common sense. The other thing we can do is you can use just what they call a last in first processed approach, where we say, okay, you want to file a refugee claim? We'll deal with yours today. Right? And so you get immediate no. Right? So we start from most recent, we work backwards.

And that disincentivizes people from putting in refugee claims just to buy themselves three or four years where they can operate or who knows how long so they can operate in Canada legally. Right. So there's just little things we can do that kind of, you know, are just common sense. And I feel like eventually we'll get there just, as with everything else with government, we just pray every other assonine approach first. There's something so unbelievably like Trudeau era Canadian to just go like, you have to leave. No, I can't. I'm gay. Okay.

I guess you get to stay in Canada now. Joey, do you have any quick thoughts or questions on that? Yeah, I mean, our former immigration minister, John Tibbitts, I think built a,

I think he built a wing of Conestoga, right? Ben, we can get those guys in there. You got to explain that reference. That is such a great reference. For the American. Conestoga was the biggest proponent of illegal. I won't say illegal,

but less than legitimate immigration claims. They were running basically an asylum for everyone and anyone who wanted to come over. And there's actually a famous video from Conestoga. I don't know if you've seen it, Ben, about a fellow who is from India talking about how he's come to Conestoga and is learning how to cut vegetables like Conestoga as his major. That's the sort of education that we were, quote, unquote, providing to people

who are willing to drive. I mean, me personally, I maybe wouldn't fly the 15,000 miles or whatever it is to learn how to handle a knife and a carrot at the same time. But that's just me. On the immigration front, the asylum thing, I love that. And I'll just note, you know, Ben, you can tell me what you think about this. If you want to know why people are becoming radicalized, why you see stuff like the Dominion Society calling for sending everyone and anyone who doesn't look white European back to their home countries, this is why?

Because we've let this get out of control. And the government needs to get this under control, not just for stuff like health care, education, the strain that is putting on housing, but because if you don't, you will wind up with things that are prevalent and talked about out in the open that were unthinkable five years ago. and you're getting very close now in Canada.

So if you go back, you can actually read my testimony in 2022, the Standing Committee of Finance. And at that point, we were still ramping up population growth. We would ultimately peak at 1.3 million people in one year coming into the country, which is insane. And I specifically said at the time, like, we have, it's taken generations to create this consensus in Canada that our immigration system is actually pretty good.

It serves us well. And we had an amazing, it's screened for the best and the brightest. Yeah. right? We brought in people who contributed. Wonderful. It would integrate, right? We didn't allow these ethnic enclave or people just come here and never learn the culture, right? We didn't do any of that shit. And I warned very clear that if we don't get this under control, you will lose the consensus. You will seed ground to the extremists and it will take you generations to get this back. And they didn't listen. They did stupid shit in the interim and we ended up where we were.

Let me just really quickly comment on John Tibbitts. John Tibitz was the, he was the CEO of Conestoga College. Conestoga College in Kishinawater, Lou area. absolutely exploded with international students. But what the crazy thing was, for a lot of colleges, they were like, well, we need the revenue. We actually were underfunded.

And so they would bring in enough international students that they would kind of break even. Conestoga College brought in so many that they were running $100 million operating surpluses for a government entity. And then he was turning around and building like this vanity campus with his name on it. Incredible.

The Tibbet's campus. And the whole time, I was like, I was shit posting this guy on Twitter. Be like, What are you doing? You're screwing over the low-income people in your own community. I got blocked by Constoga College on all socials.

And now you fast forward today, the guy's been villainized because all this shit's come to light of all the stupid stuff he was doing. So all these things, you know what? Like when you're in the right on this stuff, it takes years for kind of public sentiment to come around. But it eventually does. That's the one thing I'm finding. With all this stuff, common sense will prevail.

It just takes years sometimes. I guess the perfect place to wrap. Joey, where can everybody go to find you and follow your wonderful work? Canadian Bitcoiners podcast or BitCast as well. Great shows. And Ben, where can everybody go to follow Edge Analytics, you on Twitter, all that fun stuff? So I'm at Ben Rabidoo on Twitter, one word. And for anybody that's in the finance, real estate space, edge analytics.ca, check it out.

We've got a weekly research note that's probably the most in-depth. You'll get the best bang for the dollar anywhere. So check it out, Edge Analytics.com. And I'll give you guys a discount code. You can drop in the comments for your listeners and viewers if you want to check it out. If you enjoy this episode with Ben Rabbitout, then you're going to love the recent episode with James Lavish and Duneberg or check out the recent live stream.