BTC Sessions - NEWS ROUNDUP: Rate Hikes Into A Recession That No One Acknowledges ep275

Episode Date: July 28, 2022

The Fed once again raised interest rates as it’s becoming clear the US is in a recession that nobody in office will admit. US Senators condemn Fidelity Bitcoin allocations, Coinbase & Kraken eyed by regulators and more on today’s show. 💪 SUPPORT THE SHOW: Shakepay is the easiest way to buy Bitcoin in Canada Sign up now and get $30 free after your first $100 purchase! https://shakepay.me/r/BTCSESSIONS ALSO search/subscribe to Shakepay on YouTube! LEDN Bitcoin backed loans –  get $10 free with a savings balance of $75 or more for 15 consecutive days! https://start.ledn.io/btcsessions Keystone Wallet: secure your Bitcoin! http://bit.ly/KeyStoneSessions BillFodl: get your wallet backups in solid steel. https://privacypros.io/btcsessions Bitrefill: use Bitcoin to purchase gift cards https://www.bitrefill.com/buy/?code=O04UMic9 Like what you see? BITCOIN TIPS: https://strike.me/btcsessions

What is going on, everybody. Welcome to the show. Hope you're having a good week. Lots of new little news tidbits to talk about this week, including some macro-related stuff, including the Fed hiking rates, recession. What even is a recession? We're going to be talking about that. There is some pressure on Coinbase from the SEC, crack and thrown into the mix, possibly for a couple things here.

And this is an SEC relating to the insider trade. with Coinbase, this is something external to that, internal to that. We've got plenty to discuss. Nonetheless, we're going to talk about it all. Of course, this is live. Anything can happen. So I defer to my friend Bill here. We'll do it live. Okay.

We'll do it live. Do it live. I can write it and we'll do it live. The thing sucks. If you have not already, like, already. Like, subscribe, share, all those things, help get this content in front of more eyeballs and a special thank you to everybody that's been doing that in every episode. I am Ben with the BTC sessions. This is your daily session. Before we dive in, let's take a look at where we are

in the market right now. This is the bidbow.com. We're sitting at 23,879, 85, whatever it may be, somewhere in there getting close to 24K. We've been seeing it peak up and above 24K a couple times today. A single U.S. dollar will pick you up 4,186 sats. 90.98% of all Bitcoin have been mined. We did have a downward difficulty adjustment recently of 5%. And in terms of fees, next block, 16 sats per byte, if you're willing to wait a little bit, one or two stats per bite will do you.

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So yeah, they have third party auditors go through and check their shit to make sure they're not jerking you around. So you can check that out on their website. But you want to learn more, head over to start.ledon.com. I know next bitrefill.com. These guys help me out a ton in living on Bitcoin because I can buy any gift card my little heart desires with Bitcoin, both on-chain and via the Lightning Network. I earn Satsback as I shop, and so can you, of course. You can also earn more Sats back via the referral program.

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the Fed jacked up interest rates again by another 0.75% or 75 basis points. So now their base rate is somewhere between the 2.25% and 2.5% range. So yeah, the Federal Reserve Senate on Wednesday, it would not flinch in its battle against the most intense breakout of inflation in the United States since the 1980s. Even it means a sustained period of economic weakness and a slowing change. jobs market. Where did all this inflation come from? Huh. Who would have guessed that when you print 40% of all existing dollars in the calendar year

that there'd be some inflation? Odd. As Jerome Powell explained the logic behind the stiffest interest rates in roughly four decades, he was peppered with questions about whether the U.S. economy was in or on the cusp of a recession, a notion he rejected because U.S. firms continue to in excess of 350,000 additional workers each month. Now, to this point, hiring $350,000 additional workers each month, many people are getting multiple jobs.

There's also many people that have just decided not to reenter the labor market. There's also many firms that are cutting their workforce by double-digit percentages. There's a lot of stuff in and around those jobs numbers that can be fudged a little bit. He said, I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession. He told reporters, well, you didn't think there was going to be inflation either. It doesn't make sense that the U.S. would be in a recession. Really, bro? But the 75 basis point rate increase announced by the federal Wednesday, coupled with earlier actions in March, May, and June has now jacked the central bank's overnight interest rate from near zero to a level between 2.25 and 2.5.

This is the fastest tightening of monetary policy since former Fed chair Paul Volker battled double digit inflation in the 1980s. Now, fun fact, that they jacked interest rates up well into the high teens very, very quickly. Now, a fast trip to neutral. The Fed's ongoing rate increases mark one of, if not the fastest journeys from a low point of interest rates to a neutral level where monetary policy is no longer encouraging, boring, and spending by the year's end policymakers project policy will be restrictive, quote, restrictive. Now, it says consumer prices haven't yet breached the 10% annual mark, but at 9.1% they are close.

Fun math by Greg Foss, the most recent data in and around are we in a recession, so and so forth, We had a GDP contraction of 0.9%. If you put those together, there's your 10%. Now, he said, we do not want, and again, back to Jerome Powell, we do want to see demand running below potential for a sustained period to create slack. We're trying to do just the right amount. We're not trying to have a recession. again like just the right amount um there's not a lot of president for that right uh they they didn't do

exactly just the right of amount of money printer go bur it seems like they're just pushing buttons and cranking levers really really hard and then trying to over correct with policy in the opposite direction but the economy can't handle it we're at 2.25% or 2.5% and and things are breaking already. That's not a lot of slack that we have. He said, restoring price stability is something we have got to do. There isn't an option to fail. Now, further down the line here, there is some commentary from the chief global strategist at principal global investors. They said, from here, it is possible the Fed slows its tightening pace, reassured by the likely peaking of inflation and pullback in inflation expectations as oil prices have fallen. However, with the labor

market still a picture of strength, wage growth still uncomfortably high, and core inflation set to decline at a glacially slow pace. The Fed certainly cannot stop tightening, nor can it downshift gears too much. So basically, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Now, I liked this. Again, I was talking about Greg Foss earlier. He said, Powell, the Fed is now at neutral policy. Fact. Inflation, CPI is 9.1% and inflation compounds. Fact.

Debt to GDP ratios are accelerating higher. Truth, QE infinity is inevitable. They're going to have to keep printing money if they don't want things to implode. And Biddy sent replied with a fun little chart.

Inflation compounds in this example, if reported inflation cools and, quote, normalizes from 9% to 6, then 4, then 2%, the stated long-term goal of the Fed, that's still overall inflation of 23% in four years. High inflation kills the highly indebted, unless QE forever. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, if you don't have assets in an inflationary environment, you're screwed, right? you can't maintain your wealth like yes in a sense you're the debt that you currently owe is easier to pay back but all of your expenses are more expensive and your wage is not keeping pace with inflation you know who's getting uh you know 9.1% uh raises in a single year let alone a 23% pay increase over four years. I'm going to venture to say probably not a lot of people are going to see that, especially if you're on a fixed income, you're super screwed. 24%, 23% in four years.

That completely erodes your standard of living very, very quickly. And that's just stated inflation, right? That's not the lived experience. there's so many things cut out there. There's so many things where, oh, people can't afford something, so they're buying less of it. What are they buying instead? Instead of buying steak, you're buying poor quality ground beef or you're buying beyond meat or something like that. So your standard of living has taken a hit, but they just look at it as we'll just swap that good for this good.

And magically there's no inflation now. It's magic. Yeah, so it's super unfortunate Now, beyond the gaslighting in and around inflation and oh, we got this and all of that There's the and I don't want to play politics here. It's the same it's the same bullshit that you get on both sides of the aisle. We just got through four years of people whining and moaning about the last administration just saying things that were untrue.

And now we see it from another administration on the opposite side of the aisle. So, you know, it's just don't put too much faith in politicians because they're going to say things that directly benefit themselves and their chances of re-election. So what I'm getting at here is the White House Press Secretary basically gaslighting about what a recession is. So the actual definition of a recession, well, you know what, I'll just let you listen to it. This is an exchange with a reporter and the White House press secretary, and it's amazing. Where we are today. If things are going so great, though, then why is it the White House officials are trying to redefine recession? No, we're not redefining recession.

If we all understand our recession to be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in a row, and then you have White House officials come up here to say, If none of that's not what a recession is, it's something else. How is that not redefining recession? Because that's not the definition. That is not the definition. Brian Peace said in 2008, of course economists have a technical definition, which is of a recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

I can tell you this. And then he said two consecutive quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of a recession. It is not. It is not. It is not. I can speak to what he said yesterday in front of all of you, which is the last thing that you just repeated. There are many factors. There are many factors, economic factors and indicators to consider. And I will say that the textbook definition of recession is not, is not two negative quarters of GDP. We have a strong labor market. We have business.

It's insane to me that this is an exchange where, where the known definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And the reporter knows this and is saying, this is what it is. Why are you saying that's not what it is? Are you changing the definition? And she said, it's not the definition. And then I've seen in other clips, well, what is the definition? Well, we're not here to define that for you.

What the fuck are you talking about? how are we supposed to have any sort of a discourse happening if the words that are being used have no meaning? Like, how do you have any sort of a back and forth? How do you understand what anybody is talking about if you can't even say what you mean? How do you define recession? Well, we're not here to define recession for you. Well, a recession is two negative quarters of GDP growth.

That's not the definition. Then what is? Tell us what is, what are you talking about? It's insane. It is gaslighting. I absolutely agree. It's, I just, what do you say to that? It's like, I feel like, I, like, I, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

It's fucking insane. Again, and same thing coming out of Janet. yelling. I'm not seeing evidence of a U.S. recession now. You're not really because we've got the same exact message about inflation. There is no inflation. Inflation is transitory. Inflation is not your fault. Now there is no recession. See previous steps for the path forward. Yeah, let's move on. Holy crap, guys. U.S. senators condemn Fidelity investments, Bitcoin 401k in an open land. letter. So an open letter from three US senators sent to the CEO of Fidelity Investments to condemn

the company's recent launch of a Bitcoin 401k retirement plan. Elizabeth Warren, of course, fucking Elizabeth Warren. Richard Durbin, Tina Smith called Fidelity's decision to offer exposure to Bitcoin through retirement accounts immensely troubling, immensely troubling, really. the senators argue that Bitcoin is volatile, illiquid, and speculative. It is liquid as fuck. Holy shit, I am so wrong. It's liquid as fuck. I can literally use it to pay and have it instantly converted to dollars at any point.

It's more liquid than most people's other assets. It's, oh! Anyways, the senators argue that it's volatile, a liquid, and speculative. unfit for the retirement accounts of U.S. citizens. The legislators continue to explain some statistics in detailing the small amount of money that is on the median held on these retirement accounts. $33,472. Warren and her colleagues then proceed to paint a picture of Americans in need of their retirement

as they are living longer than ever before and are likely to outlast their retirement savings. This begs the question. When saving for retirement is already a challenge for so many Americans, Why would Fidelity allow those who can save to be exposed to an untested, highly volatile asset like Bitcoin? All right, motherfuckers, listen up. When Fidelity says that they're going to give access to Bitcoin and they're going to maybe incorporate into retirement funds, first of all, they're not putting 100% into Bitcoin. It's going to be like a single percentage allegation in all likelihood, maybe one or two percent.

and in an absolute worst case scenario where Bitcoin breaks irreparably, it cannot be fixed, all hell breaks loose, and it goes to absolute zero. There are no buyers of last resort. That portfolio then loses one or two percent. Asymmetrically on the other side, if Bitcoin continues to perform as it has historically for the past decade plus, that puts a massive potential upside on the portfolio with very, very limited, constrained risk.

It's, oh, God, Elizabeth Warren and this stupid vendetta that she has against things that I just, I don't understand. People that don't get it. It was summed up nicely here in a tweet from Savadine. politician who can print dollars wants to stop you from holding Bitcoin. He can't print because the dollar he prints loses value steadily while the Bitcoin he doesn't print gains value unsteadily. Yeah, pretty much.

It's like what are you talking about? Like minimal exposure to Bitcoin is a no-brainer at this point for anybody that understands what it is. And obviously Senator Dick Durbin and Elizabeth Warren and these other people have no idea what they're talking about. Let's keep going. Coinbase and Cracken under investigation by U.S. regulators. So Coinbase, we recently talked about this on the show, the insider trading thing. So basically somebody who was responsible or involved in the process of vetting and deciding which new assets were going to be listed on Coinbase, effectively use that information to or allegedly use that information

to partake in insider trading with his brother and another individual, effectively giving that information to them saying, hey, we're going to be listing the following assets, the brother and the other individual loading up on said assets prior to the announcement. that when it did get announced, they would capture the run-up and price and then dump on the market. They ended up being able to make about $1.5 million in doing this. And it wasn't until somebody, Kobe, on Twitter, said, hey, I found an Ethereum address that literally bought all of the, like basically all of the assets that Coinbase just announced.

It's looking at adding 24 hours before the announcement. It's a clear example of insider trading and then they were able to find this guy. This is not related to that exactly. It's a different case. So scrutiny over cryptocurrency exchanges from U.S. regulators is growing by the day. Coinbase is facing a probe from the SEC following recent charges being brought against a former product manager of the company for insider trading. The SEC's current investigation into Coinbase is meant to determine whether or not the exchange let Americans trade cryptocurrencies that should have been listed as securities according to three

sources. The SEC probe actually predates the most recent arrest of Coinbase's former product manager, as noted in a previous SEC filing. So during the time of the arrest, the SEC did not accuse Coinbase of committing insider trading itself, nor did it, nor did it bear any responsibility for the former employee's actions against the exchange. However, the regular regular. The regulator did determine that nine of the tokens leveraged for insider trading were considered securities. Coinbase confirmed that the platform lists seven of these securities. I love the writing here. The Coinbase confirmed that the platform lists seven of these securities, so like basically saying yes, they're securities on a blog written by its chief legal officer Paul

Grewell, but denies that the assets are actually a security. I mean, I think, the SEC gets to define that more or less. They, yeah, anyways. So the quote from him from Greenwall was the SEC's charges put a spotlight on an important problem. The U.S. doesn't have a clear or workable regulatory framework for digital asset securities. And instead of crafting tailored rules in an inclusive and transparent way, the SEC is relying on these types of one-off enforcement actions to try to bring all digital assets

into its jurisdiction, even those assets that are not securities. So this is an interesting one because in my opinion, and let me caveat this by saying I don't lean on the side of regulation and telling people what they can and cannot buy. I think proper disclosure is fine. But basically saying whether or not, somebody should be able to buy something. I think that's that's bullshit.

In general, I think people should be able to buy whatever they want and learn and make their own mistakes because we've all been babysat for far too long. However, if you're looking at the definition of a security and if you're looking at the Howie test, then Coinbase sure is fuckless securities. A common enterprise. there's an investment in money in a common enterprise

with the expectation of profit based on the work of an individual or group of individuals that is absolutely the definition and description of most things that sit on Coinbase

Gensler, the SEC chair has said that Bitcoin is the only thing he's comfortable saying publicly that is not a security if I had to guess, unfortunately, I think they would give Ethereum a pass. And again, unfortunately, in the fact that I'm not on the side of regulating the shit out of everything, it's more so that it kind of, it's untruthful.

Like you can't, you're effectively saying like it definitely was a security at launch, right? It was like, hey, invest your Bitcoin here. Here's the set price of this token that we are selling in a pre-mine. A bunch of the token is then also going to go to these people and these people whose jobs are to do this. There's a marketing team. There's all of this stuff. And then the reason that you might buy this is that it might go up in value in dollars or versus Bitcoin as we work and build out this infrastructure. So basically saying invest with us because the work that we're going to do is going to make you money.

That's literally exactly what a security is. So yeah, like in the end, I think that Coinbase will be, they'll just come out and not Coinbase themselves, but the SEC is going to say you sold securities and allowed people to trade securities that were not registered. What that looks like, I have no idea. Will it just be like a little slap on the wrist? I don't know. But nonetheless, like, clarity of language is important. I'm just not huge on the regulation itself.

Nonetheless, I think it's all crap other than Bitcoin. Let's move on. US senators introduce bill for tax exemption on small Bitcoin transactions. It seems like this is getting smaller and smaller. So the Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act is being introduced today. by Senator Patrick Toomey and Democratic Senator Kristen Sinema to provide tax exemption for Bitcoin transactions up to $50 or trades which net a gain of up to $50. According to CNBC, 50 bucks.

The previous one, and we'll get into it, was 200. But while digital currencies have the potential to become an ordinary part of Americans everyday lives, our current tax code stands in the way. Yeah, I mean, basically they're saying that currently everything is viewed as a capital gain or loss if you're holding Bitcoin, which is funny given that it's actually a national currency now. So I don't know like in a court, would you be able to argue that when we haven't seen precedent set for that? But there, you know, people are trying to pass things so that you could go buy a coffee and not technically have to like actually record that. and realistically it's so immaterial that I doubt that you'd have much implication for grabbing yourself a coffee, but still, you know, on paper, it's a pain in the ass.

Nonetheless, if something like this were to eventually be passed, at least it's a step in the right direction, as minimal as 50 bucks is, it makes that headache of like, oh, can I go and like do this or this? and those day-to-day expenditures of like grabbing, you know, a bite to eat, or there's a merchant somewhere that's selling T-shirts or, you know, buying a T-shirt isn't going to incur like a tax nightmare for you. That would be a positive thing in the U.S. So it's still ridiculously small, but hey, we'll see.

Hopefully this starts the ball rolling in the right direction. In the opposite end of the spectrum, Rio de Janeiro moves forward with Bitcoin integration. So the long and the short of it here, for some months now, Rio de Janeiro's city government has been getting closer to Bitcoin on a number of occasions. City representatives such as Mayor Eduardo Pius have commented on their plans. During Rio Innovation Week, Eduardo Pius met with Miami Mayor Frances Suarez, who is looking to integrate Bitcoin in Miami.

Pius stated that Miami is one of the inspirations for Rio de Janeiro and later said that the city will be studying applying 1% of the treasury to cryptocurrency. During the event, Pedro Palo, Secretary of Finance also stated the city government is open to receiving tax payments in Bitcoin. The interesting part of the quote here, we are studying the possibility of paying taxes with an additional discount if you pay with Bitcoin. So I was never a big fan of government saying, oh, yeah, we're so innovative. Now we'll let you pay your taxes with Bitcoin because like really who the fuck wants to do that? Like if you're earning dollars and then you're trying to like put Bitcoin into savings as a long term mechanism, who's going to earn dollars by Bitcoin and then use that Bitcoin to pay their taxes? But if there's an incentive system where, hey, if you pay with this mechanism, then there could be,

you know, a discount for you. I think this is where you're going to get people using Bitcoin, spending Bitcoin more often, is perhaps offering incentives for them to do so. Yeah. This would go hand in hand, you know, obviously not in real, but like something like this, an incentive structure to spend Bitcoin because merchants or governments are offering discounts if you pay your in Bitcoin alongside an exemption. for capital gains, that could start to work, right?

They've already done that in Rio, if I'm not mistaken. There's other cities that have been adopting this as well. So Luongo, Lugano, sorry, Switzerland. You've got Fort Worth, Texas, mining Bitcoin. You've got obviously Rio, Miami. There's been a number of different places. that are starting to adopt it, offer it as, or give it de facto reserve currency, or not de facto reserve currency, but de facto currency status.

So it's not taxable or anything like that. I think these are all positive developments. And I, and I prefer seeing them on a grassroots level and spread from there. I think that's, it's more sustainable. the top down method we shall see because like even in El Salvador, okay, so you have the president go and put in the Bitcoin law, does that survive if he's not president, right? Does if somebody else gets elected,

if that's even possible happening in El Salvador, I don't know. But in the presence of a different regime, does that get binned? Does that get tossed? yeah, I don't know. Whereas if it's grassroots, like, yeah, they might ditch the Bitcoin law in El Salvador. I'm not saying that this is going to happen. But like, let's say hypothetically they did. Bitcoin Beach would still be a Bitcoin hub where you could still continuously purchase things to Bitcoin and live on Bitcoin. So, yeah, I like the grassroots movements better. Yeah, we'll leave it at that.

Moving on, I wanted to give a shout out to all the boosters that have been listening to the pod on Fountain or Breeze or whatever it may be. So just a few shoutouts here from Michael Matilf, boost it, Murdoch Media, poetic boost at the dude. The more I listen to your show, the bullisher I get. I like that. Keep up the awesome work. BTC Priestess, I prefer watching on YouTube, but I'm coming in to Bruce. boost for the awesome episode. Thank you. And then there's a handful of people that boosted at a certain point because I was

referring to us talking about, you know, boosting and supporting artists and everything like that. And I said, hey, maybe you're listening to this right now and you might hit the boost button. And then a bunch of people actually went and did that. So thank you guys. So I've got Turla. I've got an anonymous user, two anonymous users and the broken rule. boosted at 11.30, just like you asked. Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. And then from Zika Boy, everybody loves Ben in his Canadian ways.

Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. Just a few things that I was on this week. Shout out to the guys at Bitcoin Magazine for having me on and chatting all kinds of stuff. Bitcoin, you can check that out. There's an article over at Bitcoin magazine, but on their YouTube channel, you'll see learning Bitcoin with BTC sessions that was on there. Again, appreciate the invite guys.

Also, shout out to Bitcoin kindergarten. These guys had me on their Twitter spaces last night, which is also on YouTube. If you haven't listened to that, it's a good one. It was a good rip. Lots of good questions. And some excellent hair talk at the beginning.

The guys told me they were going to give me 20 minutes of hair questions as a joke. And then they did. We actually talked hair for like 20 minutes. And it was ridiculous, but it was super funny. So if you don't want hair talk, skip to about the 20 minute, specifically the 21 minute mark. I don't know how we pulled that off. But the rest was Bitcoin related. Earlier this week, I dropped a video on the coin corner bolt card.

I've got a couple of them kicking around right here. So this thing is basically you can do two different things of it. You can have one that's like an NFC tap gift card. So you can give it to somebody and then they can tap it to their phone and sweep the lightning funds into their own lightning wallet. And you can reuse that as many times as you want. So you can keep it and just tap it on somebody's phone or you can gift it to somebody and then they can keep on passing on the favor. You can also use it as a debit card. That does require it be linked to a coin corner account, whereas the.

Gift card functionality, you can actually program that without any need for coin corner to be involved in any way, shape, or form other than just grabbing the card from them. But the debit function is if you have merchants that are accepting lightning at a point of sale terminal, you can just tap and pay with lightning. Or some merchants online actually have BTC pay server and stuff like that, where you have the option to NFC tab to pay the merchant via your phone, which is. is actually kind of cool. So if you go to like crypto cloaks or something like that, you can actually pay with the bolt card by tapping it to your phone and then paying that way. I think it's super

cool. Anyways, we're checking out for sure. And tomorrow, why are we bullish? I've got CK. CK. Snarks. I've got fractal encrypt. We've got Chris Alimo from Bitcoin magazine. So we're going to have a good rip tomorrow. Very excited for it. As for that, I'm going to start wrapping up. It is my anniversary. So I'm off for dinner with the wifey tonight to celebrate six years of marriage. And we've been together since 2010, 12 years, wild. So yeah, anyways, off for that tonight.

But I hope you guys have a great night as well. Of course, like, subscribe, share. All those things really, really do help. You can always hit up the previously mentioned sponsors to have. below shake pay lead and bit refill keystone bill follow they're all down here and if you really liked what you saw you can always drop me a bitcoin tip at my strike page strike dot me slash btc sessions get there type in any amount you want hit the tip button you'll see a lightning invoice or tap to the right and you'll see a regular bitcoin QR code with that i'm out have yourselves

a wonderful day or evening i'll see you guys next time for your daily session