BTC Sessions - The Road To $10K Bitcoin, Avoiding The Altcoin Circus EP007

Episode Date: January 14, 2020

***Apologies for audio quality - had microphone issues today SHOW TOPICS: Bitcoin hits 2 month high https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-hits-2-month-high-at-87k-as-3-bullish-factors-converge Key resistance levels between here and $10,000 https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-hits-2-month-high-at-87k-as-3-bullish-factors-converge BitcoinSV is pumping and Craig Wright’s trial is a circus https://decrypt.co/16507/craig-wrights-9-billion-court-case-just-took-an-unexpected-turn Coinmarket Cap historical snapshots from previous bull markets 2013 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20131201/ 2017 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20171217/ My article on the Crypto Diversification Trap https://medium.com/bull-bitcoin/the-crypto-diversification-trap-6744b0a954a6 LEDN Bitcoin loans get $50 free: https://platform.ledn.io/join/0a00cca3dd61dea5909c95cd41f41685 Check out NordVPN for 81% off: https://nordvpn.org/btcsessions Rise Wallet – easy onboarding for Canadians https://www.risewallet.com/ Wasabi Wallet – use coinjoin to maintain privacy https://wasabiwallet.io/ LIGHTNING tips: https://tippin.me/@BTCsessions

Wasabi wallet. I'm fairly private. What's up everyone? Ben with the BTC sessions here and this is your daily session. Hodel their Bitcoin. Before we dive into the news, of course shout out to sponsors of the show. Ledden.io, this is where you can use your Bitcoin for a few different services. Of course they've got their Bitcoin savings account where you can earn interest on your Bitcoin paid in Bitcoin. You can check out their Bitcoin backed loans. loans this is where you use your Bitcoin as collateral to obtain a Canadian or

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they'll actually credit you with an additional 50 bucks worth of Bitcoin. So not too bad. And secondly, we've got Rise Wallet. This is a physical Bitcoin gift card that you can pick up here in Canada, although they are looking and expanding. So keep an eye out. And it's very simple and it's super idiot proof. It's perfect for onboarding new Bitcoiners.

I find I've gifted them to lots of different people. people that I know. And the way it works is you pick up one in a store near you. You pay an activation fee much like when you get a prepaid visa card. But the person you gift this to, all they have to do is read on the back, there's instructions super easy, they download an app, scratch a code on the back and scan it and it and starts a brand new Bitcoin wallet for them, a personally held one, and sends them an on-chain Bitcoin transaction for the face value of the card. So if you want to head over and check them out, go to risewallet.com, click on locations to see where in Canada

it is near you. Keep an eye out for new locations outside of Canada soon as well. And besides that, if it's not available near you, you can always go to coincards.cai and get one delivered. With that, let's dive into the news. And you know we got to talk about the Bitcoin price today because it has been on the move quite a bit. So we saw it. hit over 8.7k, so 8,700 as of today. This is a two-month high. Now, of course, it's been fluctuating quite a bit at the time of recording this. We are looking, well, it's a kind of low 8,700s. We did see it in the 8800s, but of course by the time this airs, that will be probably an entirely new set of numbers, but we are looking at some key levels of resistance in order to get to that fabled

10K level. So currently there is some resistance right around where we are at the time of recording this video in this 8700s, namely up near 8790. Now, we've seen us hit this range before a few times typically right before another big breakout so it looks like we are tending to bounce off this level quite a bit but it could just mean that we are perhaps waiting for a reversal and a head-up again shortly here so the key levels look out for if we do get past this kind of like 8,700 range would be next into the 9,000s, the 9350, right around that level, and 9940. So both those have acted as resistance in the past.

But, hey, if we break through those, then, of course, 10K is easily attainable. So we'll just have to see how that pans out, but I'm watching closely. It looks like it's going to be a fun year. And we've got the halving just around the corner, so the issuance of Bitcoin gets cut. in May of this year. And historically, that's, you know, in the year, year and a half following that, has attributed to some pretty large manias. So we'll see what that happens, what happens with that.

But of course, with the craziness around Bitcoin price, we return to the days of the shit coin circuses. And so looking at some of the assets that have been going crazy today, you know, you're seeing double digits essentially across the board with a few exceptions. And it's been kind of a wild day. One that really stands out, unfortunately, is Bitcoin SV. Craig Wright's, the guy pretending to be Satoshi Nakamoto. creator of Bitcoin that is his baby and he's trying to pass that off as the real Bitcoin and the funny thing is is that now it's in contention to flip in Bitcoin cash

which also claims to be the real Bitcoin at one point it did pop above it they're kind of back and forth here for a little bit but they're in the number four and five spots as far as market cap for cryptocurrencies they're both sitting in kind of the low 300s right now. But Bitcoin SV is actually up basically 90% on the day. And you might be saying, why in the hell would anybody be buying Bitcoin SV right now? And while there's a couple of reasons behind that. Number one, the volume seems to be massively, massively inflated as far as being the reported volume.

because again, Bitcoin SV isn't really listed on too many actual legitimate large exchanges. So a lot of the exchanges it's on have just wash trades like crazy. And so the reported volume over the past 24 hours for Bitcoin SV is $2 billion. But the real volume for Bitcoin SV over the past 24 hours is $160 million. So, you know, quite a bit of illegitimate trading going on as far as just wash trading and fake volume, when in reality it's only about 160 million worth of volume globally for the coin. Now, this is also very much in response to what's happening with the court case with Craig Wright. And again, I know some people hate me even talking about this, but it's,

it's kind of like watching a car accident, like, you know, driving by a car accident where you kind of got a look at it. And, you know, you take your moment and you peek out and you see how bad it is. And then you move on. And so this is kind of my take here. So anyways, there's a court case going on where the brother of Dave Clyman, who passed away in 2013, is accusing Craig Wright. First of all, is supposing that Craig Wright is actually Satoshi, which clearly is not the case, but is saying that he swindled Dave Kleiman

out of a ridiculous number of Bitcoin, like 1.1 million Bitcoin. The court has sided with the Kleinman's. Again, it should be noted that this court case has never actually brought into question whether or not Craig Wright is actually Satoshi, which is hilarious. in and of itself. They just took it as, well, this is the way things are. And so they've ordered

Craig Wright to pay back 50% of the Bitcoin mined before 2013, which would be 550,000 Bitcoin, which is in the billions of dollars, of course. Also, he's liable for around $658,000 in legal fees. And so here's a couple of quotes from the judge. Essentially, what is how to what is happened here by the way is that they've ordered Craig to repay this money. Craig had initially said back last year that he put this money in this mysterious tulip trust and there would be a bonded courier that would deliver the keys to him as of January 1st of this year which clearly has passed. Now he's saying he pushed it and said he'll have access to everything as of the end of January of this year. So February 1st, he should have access to it. Of course, it's always a game of

kicking the can down the road and trying to come up with excuses why something has not happened. According to him, this past November 15th, Bitcoin should have died because of terrible flaws in segregated witness. That did not come to pass, obviously. So anyways, what the judge said. So district court judge Beth Bloom is quoted as saying, it is clear to the court that the defendant's conduct was anything but substantially justified or harmless. The defendant's conduct delayed and obstructed the discovery process of this case, wasted valuable time and resources in litigating this issue, and prevented the plaintiff from obtaining evidence that the magistrate judge found relevant to the plaintiff's claims.

So clearly not very favorable in regards to what, you know, on Craig's side of things. And further on, she goes on to say, given the defendant's many inconsistencies and misstatements, the court questions whether it is remotely plausible that the mysterious bonded courier, in quotations, is going to arrive, yet alone that he will arrive in January 2020, as the defendant now contents. However, given that the defendant maintains that he should at least be afforded this opportunity, the court will indulge him this much. In the event, the bonded career does not arrive and the plaintiffs are not given access to this information, which the court has already found directly relevant to their claims, the court finds additional sanctions should be warranted.

So basically, Craig will continue to be in a world of show. because clearly he's going to come back at the end of this month and say, I don't have anything for you. Or he'll fabricate more stuff found to once again be doctored or plagiarized or whatever. That's my guess. And it's just going to be a constant game of trying to keep up with all of the inaccuracies and misstatements and just a right malicious bullshit that he spouts throughout this case. So the pump is very much in response to somehow a lot of SV fans have turned this around to say,

oh, now it's only a couple weeks until we get to see that he's actually Satoshi. You're not going to get any evidence whatsoever. How many times do you need to be lied to and have things postponed before you just throw in the towel? Yeah, there's not much more to say to that. So what I wanted to take a look at in regards to the crazy pumps that have been happening with all of these other coins, SV included, but all of these other shit coins that are going crazy right now along with Bitcoin is I wanted to take a look back historically and have a moment of learning. So I have a snapshot in front of me of coin market cap from the 1st of December 2013. which is about as close of a snapshot as I could get of the state of all the cryptocurrencies right near the all-time high of Bitcoin. So it's off by a couple days here.

So you can see Bitcoin, of course, up there in the number one spot. But then let's take a look at some of the other top coins and let's see how many you recognize. So you have light coin and number two and you have XRP and number three. Okay, recognizable. You've seen them around a little bit. But then let's keep going. Pure coin, name coin, quark coin, megacoin, bit shares, feather coin, prime coin, world coin, Nova coin, BBQ coin, Zeta coin, Infinite coin, Terra coin, bull coin, dev coin. Are any of those ringing a bell for many people? If you're relatively new to Bitcoin, even if you are around for the bull market in 2007,

and you kind of came in around then, not a lot of those will be ringing any bells for any of you. And that's because all of them faded into such obscurity that there are hundreds, if not thousands of spaces down the list of coin market cap coins in the cryptocurrency sphere and they've just been decimated to oblivion. Now let's jump forward to a historical snapshot from the height of the last,

last bull market in 2017. So let's see. Top three you got Bitcoin, you got Ethereum, you got Bitcoin cash. So already the top three coins totally different from 2013. You go further down the list, okay, there's XRP, there it is, and there's light coin. Okay, so those two now have been displaced. But then let's keep going down the list. Cardano, Iota, Dash, NEM, Minero, Bitcoin gold, Stellar, Stellar, Eos, Neo, Ethereum Classic, Tron, QTum, BitConnect, oh my God, BitConnect, Populus. I mean, I don't think any of the ones that I mentioned from 2013, other than XRP and light coin, are even there anymore. They're all gone.

They're all completely gone. They've been displaced by others. Even XRP and Lightcoin have been bumped down by something else that was the new flavor of the week. So other than Bitcoin remaining in the top spot. that's the only consistent thing about this list and so now let's jump a little bit forward to now so those previous two historical snapshots were 2013 2017 both at the peaks of the bull markets right now we are the beginning of 2020 we just rounded out in 2019 so we haven't had

that full kind of four-year cycle yet but let's take a look at where we're at okay so number one Bitcoin number two Ethereum three XRP four Bitcoin cash okay so those are familiar now Bitcoin SV that didn't exist tether that's a stable coin so does that count light coin down at number seven so dropped further you got Eos Binance Tron Manero Cardano stellar Tezos Leo Cosmos chain link Neo hyobi token Ethereum Classic dash hedge trade Iota so again you're seeing this massive shuffling ones that used to be kind of up top have kind of been displaced by others

then you've got just totally different ones that have have come out of nowhere and are just kind of sitting there you're wondering if they're gonna still exist and others that I had mentioned from 2017 have just kind of falling completely off like where where is nem bitcoin gold god uh you know you had huge drops for things like cardano and iota and dash that's not anywhere in the top 10 bitcoin again bitcoin gold um yeah it's so you see this big shuffling around of coins where the flavor of the wheat comes in and steals the thunder from these other coins because it iterates just a tiny bit on what that coin is already trying to iterate on in to separate itself from Bitcoin.

So like Ethereum, it comes in and it says, we want more functionality on the basler. We want smart contracts. But then you have stuff like EOS and you have stuff like Tron and you have stuff like Cardano and all of and Tezos and all of these different things coming in saying, Hey, we're going to do that but slightly better so you should buy us instead. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is going slow and steady and saying, okay, here's what we're going to do. We're going to iterate very carefully on the base layer, and then we're going to build layers on top of this to allow all of the functions that these other coins have

without sacrificing the accessibility of the base layer. Again, you have Bitcoin Cash and SV and light coins. and coins like that that are meant to be money, that their main, I guess, value proposition was we have slight, you know, we have some improvements on throughput for a number of transactions on the base layer. And Bitcoin's answer to that is, okay, we're going to optimize the base layer

and then add layers that make your transactions per second irrelevant. So what I'm getting at here is that alt coins come and go, but it's always going to be a change of the flavor of the week. Now, I did an article back in August of 2019, and what this was, was a postmortem on Brian Kelly from CNBC's diversified crypto portfolio. So what I did is, is he had a wheel in front of them that he showed off to everybody watching CNBC, and he said, this is what I like to see out of a crypto portfolio. And this was in 2017 in August as well. So the middle of the crazy bull run, the meteororic bull run that we had in 2017. And so what did his portfolio look like?

Well, he had, of course, Bitcoin, but he only had 30% Bitcoin. You had 15% Ethereum, 15% Ethereum Classic, 10% Zcash. I didn't see that anywhere on any of the list that we went through. 10% Minero, 10% ripple, 5% metal, and 5% iota. I went through that and I went through each coin. Now, Bitcoin at that time would have still been up quite a bit, but as I went through, you just got decimated on every other coin. In the end, had you taken $10,000 at the time that you watched Brian Kelly on August 20th of 2017, if you took 10 grand and put it into that portfolio, he said, you would have ended

up two years later, roughly, with about $13,000. So not bad sounding. You'd be up about 33%. Now, however, if you invested to just directly into Bitcoin, you would get 24 million sets at that time. around 24 million sets, 2.4 Bitcoin. Now, if you had done the portfolio, you would end up with 122 million stats, 1.2 Bitcoin. So you actually lost 122 million Satoshes, or 49.95% of the Bitcoin you could have had.

Now, when we actually dissect where you made your money, most of your money was actually made from the Bitcoin you had, from the 30% Bitcoin allocation you had. So only three of those coins were responsible for your gains. Bitcoin netted you $5,000 profit from the 30% you put into it from the $3,000. grant. Ripple, you got 250 bucks from that and Minero made you 124. Of course, this was at the time I did the article. Every other coin lost you money and you lost a total of $3,000 from the remaining coins that you had. So the gains from Monaro and Ripple barely even made a dent in those losses and the only reason you stayed in the black was the higher allocation and outpaced gains of Bitcoin.

So crazy. So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to give you guys a Danny Tanner moment. Let's sit down and just take a moment and get a hard life lesson here. If we experience a similar bull market post-having in the year to year and a half following this mayhaving coming up these shit coins are going to go insane I need you to keep your head on straight what I need you to do

is I need you to be careful and not go too far down this shit coin rabbit hole because it's going to be enticing especially if you're new you're going to see crazy coins going up hundreds, sometimes maybe even thousands of a percent if you're looking at tiny small market cap coins. And you're going to want to partake because it just seems like everybody's getting rich. But then a day will come and the markets are going to go south, including Bitcoin. And you're going to go, ah, it's just a pullback. I'm going to load up my bags full of Zcash and load up my bags full of ripple.

And you're going to buy more. and it's going to keep going down, and you're going to buy more, and it's going to keep going down, and the only thing that won't be going down quite as much is going to be your Bitcoin. And you're going to say, well, you know, yeah, but the other,

we're going to get an alt season. It's going to come. And then it just, it will keep going down, and it won't come. And then when it finally does come, you're going to, you're going to think, oh, it's time to celebrate. But in reality, you've lost a fuck ton

of Bitcoin and had you just stayed humble and stacked sats, had you just dollar cost averages, the peaks and the dips and the troughs and all of that, you would have been much better off than dabbling and joining in the shit coin circus that are anything that happens during these bull runs. So my Danny Tanner moment to you is stay humble, stack sats. And again, thanks to Matt Odell from Tales from the Crip for that wonderful meme. That's it, guys. I'm going to wrap up there. I just wanted to give us some context, and hopefully this stays relevant.

Moving forward over the next couple of years, just keep your head about you. 2021 could be especially challenging for those of you that, you know, you're going to see some crazy stuff if we see anything like 2017. But anyways, guys, thank you so much for watching. Of course, hit like, subscribe, and share if you're, sorry, I guess watching or and or listening. If you're on the podcast there, of course, be sure to share that on your social media as well. If you want to help with the show in another way, of course, hit up the sponsors, leaden and rise. Links for that down below.

And check out Wasabi Wallet that helps your Bitcoin privacy, easy downloadable desktop wallet. And while talking about privacy, of course, using a VPN is always beneficial. This hides your IP address. It encrypts your browsing data and has lots of other benefits like unlocking geo-block content. I use NORVPN on my computer and my phone always. And if you click a link in the description down below or if you head to NORVPN.com and use the code BTC sessions, you'll get a special deal where it's only $3.49 a month. So be sure to check that out.

And that, of course, helps the show when you do so. And with that, I am out. Have a wonderful rest of your evening. Keep your head about you, and I will see you next time for your daily session.