BTC Sessions - WHY ARE WE BULLISH? Bitcoin Dominos All Lined Up ep161

Episode Date: March 27, 2021

In a week of new Bitcoin ETF applications, Bitcoin continuing to vanish from exchanges, and (even more) signs of fiat inflation appearing on the horizon, today’s panel guests riff on what has them feeling bullish.🐂. 👉 Keep it Simple Bitcoin: Creator of Bitcoin tutorials for interacting with Bitcoin privately, securely, and sovereignly. https://twitter.com/KISBitcoin 👉 J.M. Bush: Co-author of “Thank God for Bitcoin: The Creation, Corruption and Redemption of Money”. https://twitter.com/jmbushwrites 👉 William Clemente III: Finance major currently interning at Bitcoin Magazine and writing about Bitcoin and On-Chain Analytics. https://twitter.com/WClementeIII 👉 Guy Swann: Host of the Bitcoin Audible and Shitcoin Insider podcasts https://twitter.com/TheCryptoconomy 💪 SUPPORT THE SHOW: LEDN Bitcoin backed loans –  get $25 free https://bit.ly/397rlLN Get Wasabi wallet for Bitcoin privacy https://wasabiwallet.io/ Cobo Vault: secure your Bitcoin! https://bit.ly/2GgMFlH BillFodl: get your wallet backups in solid steel. https://privacypros.io/btcsessions Bitrefill: use Bitcoin to purchase gift cards https://www.bitrefill.com/buy/?code=O04UMic9 LIGHTNING tips: https://tippin.me/@BTCsessions Audio-only version of the show: https://anchor.fm/btcsessions Telegram channel: https://t.me/btc_sessions

Wasabi wallet and fairly private. What's going on, everybody? Happy Friday. Welcome to the show. Glad to see you all here. There's people already piling in. Smash that like button. Give this a share.

We are here for another Friday episode of Why Are We Bullish. It's my favorite time of the week, the best way to cap off the week. Why are we bullish? We've got a killer panel here today. I'm going to talk about lots of fun stuff. As always, this is done live. Anything can happen. And so a quick disclaimer from my good friend Bill.

We'll do it live. Okay. We'll do it live. Do it live. I'll write it and we'll do it live. The thing sucks. Welcome again. Thank you guys.

Give this a share. Let's get a ton of people in here. We've already got like 90 people watching live and we barely just begun. Gives us a share. Smash like. And as always, I am Ben with the BTC sessions. And this is your daily sales. session.

All right. So before we bring in our panel, of course, let's take a look at where we are in the market right now. We're sitting around $54,0991 per Bitcoin. That up a little bit from our previous dipping. We did dip down to in and around 50K range. It was 50,400, something like that that we got down to. but we've been coming back up.

And we talked a little bit on the show yesterday about some potential reasons for that. But we're going to get into that a little bit more. A few other metrics we want to look at. Sats per dollar. You can pick up 1,849 sats for a single U.S. dollar right now. In terms, there is 88.88% of all Bitcoin have been mined. And for fees up a little bit from last show, 72 sats per byte, well, 73 now. We'll get you into the next block.

And if you're willing to wait an hour around 40 sats per byte, we'll do you. Quick shout out to sponsors the show, ledden.com. You can use this to use, you can use your Bitcoin for a variety of different services here. For me, it tends to be if I need to get my hands on dollars and I don't want to sell my Bitcoin because, you know, taxable event and worried about having a buyback and at a higher price. This has been kind of my go-to. I'm able to deposit, get dollars in my bank account within 24 hours. And when I pay that back, I get back the same amount of Bitcoin. Of course, they've also got their Bitcoin in USDC savings,

and they've got their B2X offering, which instantly buys you more Bitcoin with the same loan mechanism. You can check out all of that in the links down below. Up next, of course, we've got the Kobo Vault, one of my regularly used hardware wallets. I love this thing, 100% air-gapped, keeping your keys safe and offline. line. It's all done via QR code. They do have their Bitcoin only firmware, which of course I have installed. Secure Element, all the good stuff there. And I've been using it a lot with multi-sigs alongside my cold card, which is friggin awesome. I love the thing. So check it out. Really, really great stuff. For reference, I'm using the pro. It has the fingerprint scanner and the

rechargeable battery. Up next, I do live on Bitcoin. 100%. Well, not 100%. I do get dollars here and there, which I try to dump very quickly. But I do need to live. And one of the ways that I can help myself do that is through bit refill. They have just every gift card you can imagine. And just every, you know, they have tons of different countries. If you go for a scroll here, I'm sure your country will be listed. And you can pay via main chain or on Lightning Network, if you so choose.

And you actually do earn Sats back as you shop. So be sure to check them out. And finally, guys, please back up your Bixie. client wallets carefully, whether it is a hot wallet or a cold wallet, make sure that backup is secure. I've heard some horror stories this year from people that just did not do that. It was on paper. They threw it out or they got water damage on it and can't see the seed anymore.

Things like that, you got to be careful. So one way to do this is to get it on steel with something like the bill foddle over on privacy pros.com. Check them out. Links below. And with that, let's wrap this up. And let's start bringing in our awesome panel here. We've got Will.

We've got J.M. We've got Keep It Simple. And maybe, just maybe, we'll get Guy Swan from Bitcoin Audible. He may be very preoccupied recording something as sometimes happens. But hey, we've got a killer friggin panel, guys. Welcome. I'm going to go down the line. And I'm going to let you guys let everybody know who you are and I guess what you do

or any other little tidbits that you want to throw in there really quick. So let's jump to Will. Will, can you let everybody know who you are, what you do? Yeah, sure, thanks. So, hey, guys. I'm somewhat new on the Bitcoin scene. I started getting into Bitcoin maybe around the end of last June. I'm a finance sophomore major at East Carolina University.

And basically, lately what I've been doing is a lot of like on-chain analytic stuff, just kind of bouncing around with different finance-related kind of things. things. But yeah, lately I've been focusing on the on-chain stuff. Awesome. Yes. And I've been retweeting the hell out of you. So thank you for the solid content you've been putting out. Let's jump to keep it simple. Dude, let people know who you are, what you do. Hey, guys. Thanks for having me. I make, you know, easy, simple, practical guides to interact with Bitcoin safely, privately. And I'm grateful to be on the show and looking forward to the conversation.

Awesome. Glad to have you, dude. A returning guest as usual. And let's jump to JM. Dude, can you let people know who you are, what you do? Yeah, well, my name is Jordan. I am a missionary and the church planar living in Uruguay in Latin America. And as far as the Bitcoin goes, as far as Bitcoin goes,

the thing that I'm most known for is I'm one of the co-authors of a book called Thank God for Bitcoin. And so I wrote that alongside more notable names like Jimmy Song. and Robert Reed Love. And so yeah, thankful to be here. Thanks for the work of all of the guys here. Awesome.

Awesome. Well, guys, I'm super stoked to have you guys all on the panel today. Again, as I said, this is always my favorite part of the week because I get to just sit back and chill and enjoy having some fun time

with some solid bit corners here. So this is, why are we bullish? And we kind of go by the three R's here. So I'm going to start by giving a reason we're going to riff on that reason, and then we're going to rotate to the next person. So really simple, super casual. I'm going to get us started, and I'm going to do a little screen share here because there's

something that has me very bullish as of late. Let me just get my screen going here. It's an image, and it's a tweet that was shared out here. I'll do this. Okay. So this is a tweet shared by Macro Unpuzzled, and it shows all of the options expiries throughout this bull run and kind of what has happened to the price after those expiries. So I'm just going to kind of for some people may be listening to this on the pod later

if you can't see the image. On the 30th of October last year, we were at 13k when those options expired. By the time of the next expiry, after a significant pullback, we were at 17K. That was no November 27th. By the time of the next expiry on December 25th, we were at 23K. By the time of the next expiry, we were at 32K. That was on the 29th of January this year. And by the time of the next expiry on February 26th, it was 44, almost 45k. And in each of those, there's like almost immediately after the expiry or within like days of the expiry. there's significant upside to the price. So we just had a record amount of Bitcoin expire in the, on like Deribit, on a ton of different exchanges where there was $6 billion worth of options that just expired today. So that was a record.

I believe it was $4 billion, was the previous record, I think just from last month. but a massive amount of downside pressure was there up until that expiry. And now that seems to have been lifted. And I mean, we do already see it reflected in the price. We were down, you know, people were worried about us breaking below 50. And it seems to have bounced back up. So, you know, if that trend continues, fantastic, unless you're like waiting to stack. All of us were chatting a little bit before we got started.

were like, if we could just wait, maybe like five days a week, you know, there's some paychecks coming in. Wouldn't mind stacking a few more sats. But as I'm sure will be the case in most of my other paychecks, it'll, it'll pump just prior to it arriving. But yeah, I don't know. I find this interesting. I've been trying to learn a little bit more about how these options markets operate and everything. But I do think it has some effect.

But maybe some of the other panel members will have other thoughts. So I'm going to start tossing it down the line to get any thoughts if you have anything specific to say about it or if you just in general feel pretty bullish looking at that chart. You can let me know. Maybe let's go to Will first because I know you were saying that you had some interesting things that you were noticing there that you wanted to tag on. Yeah, to be honest, I think he touched on a couple of the things I had to say.

But in general, I just wanted to say, like you said, the previous record was at the end of January. And then after January, price went up. I think it was like 98% or 99%. And that previous record was $4 billion. Now we're seeing $6 billion that expired today. So it'll be interesting to see what the price entails in the next couple weeks. Because obviously, you know, it's not going to be something that the second the options expire.

You're going to see the effect of it. It's more going to be in the weeks following. Yeah, 100%. Do you know, are you super familiar with how the options mark? markets work? Like, have you done a lot of looking into that or is that? To be honest. Yeah, to be honest, like, I'm not, I'm not, I know a little bit about it and I've tried to look into it, but I wouldn't say I'm like a derivative expert enough to give you like an informed opinion about it. Yeah. Like my, my understanding is the general idea is, is somebody

can sell or buy an option to buy or sell Bitcoin at a specific price at a specific date in the future. So like if if one person thinks that Bitcoin is going to drop and another person thinks that Bitcoin's going to go up, they may agree to buy Bitcoin, you know, in the future at a certain price point. Like the ones that just expired, I believe they were saying the max pain point would have been if we had dropped down to 44K. And so that means some people were saying, hey, I'm, I'm willing to sell you Bitcoin at 44k at this date. in time and I'm willing to buy Bitcoin from you at this date in time for

44K and if you're selling that then you kind of got to make sure that you've hedged yourself there so you don't get screwed so you got to kind of take both sides of the bet to hedge it out but it's interesting I don't I definitely miss some things there and I don't fully grasp

always but you know definitely there's definitely huge price movements in and around this kind of stuff kiss do you have any thoughts on options? Are you just, do you just ignore this stuff or what, how are you feeling? No, it's definitely interesting. I participated in some of this before. You know, with options, there's always an opportunity cost. I guess I'll speak to, you know, the individual's perspective,

right? There's an opportunity cost because if, if you, if you have to lock in Bitcoin or lock in Fiat in order to buy the option, buy or sell the option, right, depending on what side you're on, You have an opportunity cost, whether it's with, you know, cash, right, to be able to buy dibs or whether it's your Bitcoin to be able to do something with it. I'm very curious. I've been thinking about this a lot. There's a lot of talk about how many coins are flying off exchanges, right? All these institutions are taking or are self-custodying, and that's why you see this massive just exit from institutions. whereas like in 2017 exchanges had a lot higher balances. And I was listening to the Preston Pish's Bitcoin podcast,

and he had a guy on two episodes ago, and they were talking about the Cash and Carry, and they were also talking about the... Charles Edwards? Yes, thank you. Charles Edwards. So they were talking about Cash and Carry, and then they started talking about a... another type of carry trade where you take the Bitcoin, let's say you blockify it, right?

You put 10 collateral, you get back five worth, you get like 50% of it, and then you short Bitcoin, right? You do the cash and carry trade. And so I started thinking, and I don't want to go off on too much of a tangent, but how much of this Bitcoin that's flying off of exchanges is then being locked up into this trade? And what happens if we get a 25, 35, whatever the floor is for that liquidation, right? And what does that do? Because I'm ultra-uber bullish. But, you know, in the interim, right, in the short term, anything can happen. The craziest shit can happen.

And so I started thinking about that because that was a vector I hadn't even thought about. And Will, you know, you've written tremendous articles on Bitcoin magazine. I don't know if you have any, you know, any kind of nuanced opinion to respond with or any of you guys do. But I was just thinking about that and I'm super bullish. But what kind of leveraged effect does that have on downside? Like, because it's getting, it's leverage, right? And we're getting more leverage than we were, you know, 2017, 2016.

So. Yeah. I can touch in real quick. I'll just want to throw in there. So it's interesting because, you know, right now we kind of have like this, this feedback loop where the spread between the futures premium and the spot price is continuing to grow as, you know, the volatility increases and price increases. And so we're in this contango right now in the market. And, you know, as more people step in to do the trade, they're locking up more Bitcoin in escrow, which is almost like a second. supply having, which is accelerating, obviously the price because there's less supply to be bought, et cetera, et cetera. But we're in this feedback loop, but what happens when it, I think this is what you're kind of getting at here is what happens when it comes back and unravels the other way and we get it.

Which, to be honest, I don't really understand what the catalyst for that would be. But it's definitely something to think about. as as you finish up that thought we we have the addition of the tardiest member of today's why are we bullish we're going to razz him before he gets in here the silky smooth voice of guy swan is joining the party what is up what's up man we said 530 right as i'm right i'm right I've been kind of us. That's all right. I'm going to blame it on my friends.

I had some friends come in from out of town, and I thought they weren't going to get here until late tonight, and then randomly the doorbell rings, and then we've been talking for like the last 40 minutes. I didn't know what it was. You must be on Moscow time or something. That's what it was. It's on Moscow time.

It's 1952 over here. Yeah, yeah, that's right. We'll get to the memes in a moment. I'm excited about that. But let's toss this topic over to Jam. Dude, do you have any thoughts about, you know, the expiry of all these options and the historic president this year at least or this bull run for the big runs that we've seen after them? Yeah, I don't have a lot to add on that front.

I'll be completely honest with you. What I do see at that is like, I just like, you could just put a slogan like Bitcoin. if you're losing money, you're doing it wrong. I just look at that chart. I'm like, how do you like just hold? Like, this is not hard. This is not complicated. It's just,

it's awesome. Yeah. It's amazing to me that, that, I mean, I guess that's just some people's MO. They want to play those games and they don't. So it's almost like they don't fully understand what they're dealing with.

Like with the opportunity cost of doing that. I don't get it. I think one thing just to add in now is that, you know, some of, some of these options aren't naked per se. Some of them are, a lot of them actually are probably just hedging against the downside. So they're eliminating some of that downside risk.

Yeah. Yeah, that's fair. Awesome. And Guy, I don't know if you heard much of it, but basically we're just talking about, I'll bring it up one time just to show you here. One sec. Hold on. I'm going to find it on my feed.

but I was I was sharing this earlier if I can find it here oh there's us we're live inception holy crap it is right here so this basically this is the chart of the options expiries and the runs that we had immediately thereafter and the dips were just like massively above even when the expiry happened so anyways I don't know have you been looking much into these options the expiry's guy? I have not actually. I, you know, Bitcoin loves to just take a rally and then breathe for a minute. And I don't know exactly the ins and outs of what the liquidity for these options are or I really haven't thought in-depth about it. I'm just so long Bitcoin, like just in general that it just seems like okay so it moves this way for 15 days i don't like it's like is that a

time's go i really care about you know um but it would probably i'm sure there's something very interesting to uncover there um and probably worth an episode on the show but no i haven't i haven't really dug into it all right fair enough that's that's fair you heard it here first from guy swan himself guys stop screwing with that stuff stay calm stack sats be humble all all the good things uh we're get to our next reason for being bullish here. But before we do that, of course, also people are

calling out, they're seeing chairs. There are chairs. There are scammers in the room. Why is everybody, I'm sorry, guys. I don't know. This is actually just like a short, cushioned wall behind me and I'm squating. Yeah, I'm in

a deep squat at all times. That's all. There's like, Quads are massive. Yeah. Yeah. Quad four. That's.

It means when your quads are four times the size of a regular quad from a lack of chair. That's right. I love it. Gigacquads we have. Yeah. Oh, man. So let's get into our next reason for being bullish. I will say there's over 100 people watching live.

Smash that like button. Give this a share that will help get even more people in and watch. but we're actually going to jump to Will here because he had some interesting stuff. Also, if you are not following Will on Twitter, dude is dropping hot fire on my feed on the regular. So his stats and some of his pieces have been fantastic. So, dude, take it away. What has you feeling bullish this week?

Yeah, sure. So first of all, I appreciate it. The big thing for me, I would say, is that, you know, in the last week, despite some of the volatility that we've had, you can see on chain that a lot of these coins are being moved to what I use GlassNode. There's several different data providers that you can use with the one that I use mostly as Glass Note. And they have a metric called a liquid supply. And so this basically measures addresses that have a tendency not to sell for a long period of time. And so in the last week on chain, we've seen well over $10 billion worth of Bitcoin being moved to these liquid addresses, which is, of course, very, very bullish. And I think, you know, sometimes people can confuse the fact that they say, oh, coins are being moved off exchanges.

Why isn't the price going up immediately? And the thing is, you're not really going to see the full effect of this liquidity. crunch, if you will, until we start to see more waves of demand, probably towards the end of the year as more companies or institutions look to take positions in Bitcoin. And then you'll really see the full effect of they're not being Bitcoins available to buy. And so that's something that I'm really keeping my eye on. I think the coins not on exchanges kind of comes down to like three main factors. The first is just, you know, in general, there's more kind of institutional grade custody solutions and just, I think, a more broad awareness about the importance of putting your bitcoins into cold storage.

The second reason is you start to see a lot of miners on chain of actually stopped selling and of actually accumulating. And so I think that also can have something to do with the lending and borrowing markets that we now have that weren't around like, you know, a lot of the infrastructure around now, wasn't around in the previous two bull cycles. And so now miners can access liquidity to kind of finance their operations without having to sell their coins onto the market. And you see some of them are actually accumulating. So Marathon, which I think is one of the better known publicly traded companies that mine Bitcoin, they've actually publicly come out and said, yeah, we're finance, we're taking out debt

to finance and buy Bitcoin. So that's another thing on chain that I really have my eyes on because if there's no Bitcoin's being dumped onto the market, that's also adding to this kind of liquidity crisis that we have in Bitcoin. And the final thing is what we had touched on earlier with the contango trade, which is this is more speculative. And there's not really a lot of data that we can see exactly that that's there. You can look at like futures open interest, I suppose. And also just like in general that the amount of assets that Block FI has under management, I think that maybe you could kind of throw in there. But there's nothing definitive to know that this is existing, at least to what extent that it's going on. But I think the Bitcoin being locked up in escrow until these until the trade, the contango trade is expired, I think that's something else that's adding as well.

And then one other small thing is like the gray scale, for example, like the gray scale Bitcoin Trust, the way it's set up is they can't move those coins for like six months. So there's a couple other small things like that where the coins are being locked up and they can't move. So it's really hard to say exactly what's causing it. But those are the kind of the factors that I think are at least mostly attributing to it. Damn. Coming with the data. I love it. Yeah, that's, I mean, it seems like a good portion of the world are starting to become good bitcoiners, not your keys, not your coins.

They're moving things out of counterparty risk in some of these situations. Like, I'm wondering if the the Pleb factor has a little bit of that. I mean, obviously, they're nowhere on the scale of these large institutions. But you get people like Michael Saylor where he's like, okay, well, I'm, I've got billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the cyber hornets are telling me to self custody and run a node and things like that. While that won't be everyone, it's really cool to see that play out. And you have Elon Musk tweeting, hey, we're running our own nodes. And if you pay in, you know, that was another thing that came up.

If you pay for a Tesla and Bitcoin as of this week, we're not selling it. we're just putting it in cold storage and keeping it. You know, we've got plenty of dollars to dump. So, um, yeah, I,

I love, I love seeing that people are, are holding their sets that they're stacking. We're full bitcoins if you're Elon Musk or sailor, but, uh, let's toss it down to J.M. Do you have any thoughts on this,

you know, money moving off exchanges? Is this just like an extension of the, the ethos of Bitcoin being played out on a grander scale? Yeah, I love it because I just see like, I mean, the humility.

of people being able to look at what's happened the last eight years and plan accordingly. Like that you're supposed to, I mean, if you think about just things that just in their normal world, like you have seasons, like things are where you benefit from. So like, you know, crops and all these kinds of things, they have natural seasons

and that allows you to plan. It's a blessing to people that that happens. You can occupy yourself with other things that you don't have to be working tirelessly to try to make money all the time. And so Bitcoin allows this to happen. It gives you, you know, there's seasons where there's,

two years where, you know, the price goes down and everything stabilizes. And then two years where, you know, where everything kind of explodes upward and, you know, you get new growth. And so I just think it's just the fact that people are recognizing that and beginning to, you know, kind of plan accordingly. I just think it's a great thing for the space. I think it's a great thing for humanity. I think, like, you just, we've, humanities reap the benefit, you know, for the last 50 years

of what it looks like when, you know, money is the ultimate decision-making thing, you know, over and above people's, you know, welfare. And so you've seen, I mean, again, shout out to Hevel-Arm Clown and Ben Prentice, you know, WTF happened in 1971. I mean, just like, it's, it's, that website just basically screams, this is not sustainable.

And, you know, this is just the most recent, you know, example of, you know, steps in the right direction. So I'm super, super thankful for, you know, for just this whole space and everybody involved. I love it. Have you seen on the topic of the predictability of Bitcoin? Have you seen the yearly candle chart where it's just a single candle for each year? And it's literally it's like it's like green, green, green red.

Green, green, green, red. You can just live your life on a four-year cycle and you'll be totally fine. It's like it's like the easiest cheat sheet I've ever seen. Exactly. It's just a lot. I love it. Let's toss it to now that the, It mixed up the odor on my screen, but let's toss it to Guy and then we'll keep a simple after for your thoughts.

Sweet. All right. So on the movement to, like movement from exchanges, I think it's a pretty strong indicate. I mean, I think it's crazy bullish. Just, I mean, just on its face, right, is that you're moving capital away from the place where you sell the capital. And like so like that that is inherently suggesting that there is a long-term position, whether it be infrastructural or long-term savings or institutional. And I think it's just a or something like selling these futures contract and the taking advantage of the tango trade. And like Preston Pish had a great conversation with Preston Pish and we like went into this for like an hour and 40 minutes. And like I just don't see how the development of interest rates in the Bitcoin space and more importantly, the over collateralization of reserves in the Bitcoin space is going to create a profoundly efficient and sustainable market, even with all the volatility in the Bitcoin price. And the fact that that is developing, I think all of these are just signals of how incredibly mature the market has. become in the last year to two years because you're seeing I mean this is the move to institutional

long-term positions even if even if we're looking at and I don't even know will maybe you know whether or not the glass node statistic has like blockfy and unchained and lead and these other services included in it is that that's that might be a lot of what we're looking at as people are actually loaning or because we actually have a loaned market. now. We have an interest rate market within Bitcoin is that people are able to keep their Bitcoin and still access the Fiat value of it and manage it as a debt and still actually hold on to their keys. And that shows that it's a dichotomy, particularly when you look at that same metric back in 2017, how short that period was where it was actually falling, is that we've moved wholly

from a speculative bubble to a very strong, like, infrastructural demand. You know, like, this is just not the same game that we played in 2017. And then the other thing that just has me hilariously bullish that just kind of makes me giggle is that people think it's, like, the Bitcoin price falling to 50,000 is a crash. Like, I'm just, like, like, people are literally worried on Twitter that Bitcoin has fallen. And I'm like, what, where have you been? What? Like, seriously.

And it just, I just, it just was, I don't, I don't remember who tweeted it. But somebody said literally like six months ago when the price was 5,000 or something like that, everybody was joking about how it was going to crash to $50,000. And it's like, here we are. It hadn't even been a year, you know. But yeah, I think, I think all of these are signs. that, you know, regardless of what a lot of the facade of the public opinion is about Bitcoin and the crappy journalism, which is just crap anyway, in the perception of what Bitcoin is,

I think it's showing that when the CEOs and the board rooms are sitting down, they're taking this very seriously. And this is becoming a very robust and legitimate asset class. and that Bitcoin is taking the whole, taking the whole cake. 100%. Kiss, any thoughts here that you want to tag on? Sorry. No worries.

Sorry. It goes back to what we were talking about before. You know, I, I'd like to hold the intention that it is bullish and, you know, I'm ultra bullish. But again, if we go back to the conversation, if all these outflows are going into leverage to take advantage of that cash and carry trade, especially since a lot of this is institutional money, I'm completely speculating here, right? I'm just putting it out there. If we drop 50, 60%, you know, that's still $25,000. That's phenomenal to guys' point. Like, that is still amazing, right? But if you came in with a $20 or $30 million position of $45,000, it's a very different story. So, you know, in the short term, I think we're going to see, you know, some of these kind of these ups and downs. But in the long term, you know, we're going up. We know which way we're going.

So I would love to better understand. And I think a lot of people would, you know, how much of that outflow from exchanges. is going into places that are maybe more opaque, that something like GlassNode or, you know, people that build their own proprietary tools on the blockchain can't see, right? And how that's locked up and how, you know, what the cast-state effects are of that. That's it, yeah. Cool. Will, you have a, you wanted to share something, a chart that you had?

Oh, yeah. So I shared my screen with there. I don't know if it came through, but I have the balance on exchange chart pull. up and there's two boxes and the one on the left. Wait, did you, did you hit share already? I believe so. Here, hitch. Oh wait, okay, here we go.

Here we go. There we go. Okay, I'm going to bring it in. All right. There we go. Okay, go ahead. So on the left hand side, you can see that the left box, that's from the 2017 run. And constantly throughout, you know, as the price rose, you saw more coins being moved on to exchanges.

So that really indicates that it was kind of retail, you know, that's kind of retail, you driven. And then now you can see on the right hand side that coins are the, how steep the amount of coins being moved off exchange is just so much deeper than any other time. And, you know, like we were saying earlier, it could be a bunch of different reasons, but that's definitely going to have an impact on the price. And one other thing, I just wanted to touch on something that guy said. So in regards to the interest rates, it's really interesting because if we have the, these risk-free rates that blow out to just as a round number, we'll say 20%, because I don't think that's that unreasonable, to be honest.

And these rates are kind of, essentially, they're an outcome of hyper-bitcoinization. As we move further through this process of hyper-bitonization, the rates are going to continue to blow out. If we get out to 20%, you know, when you're valuing assets, you use a discount rate, which is essentially a risk-free rate, which right now is most. Most people use the 10-year treasury. So like if you're doing this a discount cash flow model on a stock, for example, right? And so right now the average P-E ratio of the S&P 500 is over 34.

It's like 34 and some change the last time I checked, which isn't, I mean, it's overvalued in relative terms to other points in history. But it's when you compare it to what you're using as your discount rate, it's really not that overvalued because they've manipulated the interest rate down so far. And so if you start to have these, what Bitcoin is, is a free and open market interest rates that are 20%. You're going to need to see PE ratios fall to five. And that would just be matching the risk free rate. So I'm not going to take on risk if I'm not going to have the same percent return on something that has risk versus something that doesn't have risk. So I'm going to need a substantially more, substantially more return on. that equity to make up for for the risk which is called in finance is called the risk premium so

you're going to need to not only CPE ratios fall to five if we have 20 percent Bitcoin risk-free rates but substantially less than five and just to put that into context if if they fall down to five from 34 plus you're looking at an 80 percent stock market correction yeah that's that was that was the big thing is the crash in equities that would subsequently need to desperately find value and you've got that risk-free rate sitting over in your left hand. Like why did we not do this from the get? Yeah, exactly. And this is where like a lot of people that hold like micro strategy, for example,

you know, they're like, oh yeah, Michael Saylor is going to turn micro strategy into a Bitcoin bank, which he might. I mean, that's great. But when you're looking in terms of what you want to be holding through the end of this hyper-bitconization process, you want to be holding the underlying Bitcoin because all these equities, if you believe that. that Bitcoin is going to become the dominant form of money, these interest rates are going to follow through with that process,

and that's going to crash everything. And somebody asked, where did the 20% risk-free rate come from? Was that just like a number? Yeah, that was just a number I brought up off the top of my head. It's a hypothetical. I think it's like 6% right now or something like that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And it's funny because there was some buzz on Twitter, like the last few days, because BlockFi dropped their interest rate on Bitcoin. But then the interest rates on borrowing like USDT and stuff like that, depending on where you go, are quite high, like double digits. And so it tends to be like a, or not borrowing, but lending it to them in like a savings account.

And it tends to be because people don't want to right now, people don't want the risk of lending out their Bitcoin, but they're happy to, to, I guess, lend out their dollars, and then they're able to turn that around for, you know, people will borrow it for a high rate, and they'll go and, what, use that to speculate on Bitcoin? Is that what they're doing with,

when they're, like, borrowing USDT from these people? Like, I think that's, because, like, people aren't borrowing Bitcoin from, them at or they're not willing to pay as much to borrow the bitcoin from them right if they can't give as high up an interest rate is that right i don't i don't know but i will say the people that are borrowing bitcoin are probably doing that uh the cash and carry trade i just don't see why else you would be borrowing bitcoin yeah yeah fair enough yeah because i mean if you if you borrow the bitcoin and you do something with it and that was a bad idea and then the bitcoin price continues to go up

and now you don't have the Bitcoin and you're trying to pay back the debt, that could be dangerous, I imagine. As it is to your health. Yeah, let's keep this rolling. Guys, there's 150-some people in here. Smash that leg, gives us a share. We're going to keep it going, and we're going to toss it to JM. And, dude, we're going to get you on your reason for being bullish this week.

And I should say people in the chat, keep it coming. I'll bring up any comments and stuff that I see that are, are relevant to what we're talking about but jam take it away what has you feeling bullish yeah man the thing has me bullish again this is this kind of the mode that i get into a lot because i'm not super great on like the technical analysis and stuff like that but one of the things that i do is i just just reflect just keep reflecting i just kind of like looking around like what's going on and just trying to appreciate you know like everybody who's involved in this space um i just think it's just a really powerful group of people just given the principles and just the character traits of Bitcoiners is just one of the things

that gets me just excited and more every time I meet a Bitcoiner, I'm just like this person sees the world in a way that is just more real than the way that Wall Street and, you know, this Fiat bubble inflated world sees the world. And so I just think there's so many people. You just think about, I mean, the cryptocurrency, I mean, the cryptography, obviously that underlies, underlying Bitcoin is obviously a humongous thing, this, you know, belief in the necessity for privacy. You notice that the government, governments aren't gods.

They don't have the right to do whatever they feel like doing. They have to be checked and bound by rules as well. And so cryptography enables that in a lot of ways. So you have people who are working on that. I mean, obviously you have, you know, Satoshi Nakamoto, you have Hal Fini, all these guys who, you know, kind of went before us. you know, these guys who, I mean, they literally gave, I mean, I think about Satoshi and it blows my mind, like the guy gave away his best idea. Like, rather than, you know, you have all of these, you have, we have this world where everyone's trying to save, you know, tie up their IP for as many years as possible as they can, they can just selfishly hoard. Not even necessarily selfishly, but just trying to hoard as much gains for themselves as possible.

And just the whole, the whole idea of open source projects, just giving it away. And obviously, the idea is that down the road you're going to make, you're going to win big. if you do that. So those guys from the outset, but then you just got, you've got people, you know, Paul Etoe from Sphinx, you know, just building this web 3.0, just all those kind of guy. You've got, I mean, obviously, for me, one of them, my intros to Bitcoin was the Tales from the CryptPod. And so you've got Matt who just drilling into my head, you know, the importance of privacy. And so I'm sitting there like going down the privacy rabbit hole, finding all these privacy resources

and then I'm like sharing them with people and friends and family and just looking at showing the importance from a lot of different and a lot of different perspectives. You've got, I mean, you've got, yeah, you just got, I mean, you've got today, Jesse Berger, who's,

Matt, who wrote the book Magic Internet Money, put out this article called Risk It for the Brisket. I don't know how I can share this. Let me see, let me do. See if I can share this screen. Yeah, oh, there you go, perfect. So he just wrote this one. We're closing up that audio book, by the way.

Oh, are you? Yes. Very soon on that one. Still waiting for layered money to get approved as well. But yeah, we did Magic Internet Money. That was so good. Yeah. I got them all.

If you wrote a book, it's here. People are waiting on that layered money. He just put out an article today called Risket for the Brisket that basically looks at the Adamson barbecue situation going on in Canada and just, you know, why that, is a big deal. And just kind of for people maybe who are in the States who haven't been following as much, I mean,

him just laying out like the political implications. And so how Bitcoin would help, you know, you know, avoid a world like this. You've just got, obviously you got Robert, guys like Robert Breed love and Gigi who are just taking on the philosophical side of things

and just kind of helping people think through. Just way, you know, a bunch of steps beyond just, their immediate, you know, their immediate situation. Like these are where these things are going and helping people think,

you know, with a lower time. preference. You've got Jack Mallors, who's working on, you know, international payments. I mean, like I, our church here, I help with a church, small church point, about 60 people here in the capital city in Uruguay, and about 40% of our church are Venezuelan immigrants. And so, I mean, all these people have seen their lives get destroyed by fiat money and by government ability to print money and, you know, just trying to preserve the value of their money and access it and all these kind of things. And Jack Mallor's is out there, you know, enabling them

to, you know, just buy, you know, purchase other currencies and hold them, you know, super easily. So, I mean, again, you've got, then you've got our blunt objects, you know, I think of American Hoddle and Bitcoin, you know, like they're just blunt objects. We just throw at people, you know, and just, again, it's not that they're not brilliant. They are brilliant, but then just they sheer, their sheer volume and power just overwhels people. I just, I just love the Bitcoin community. Matt Hill. I'm a big fan of the Start 9 embassy and just everything that they're doing.

Just the importance of individuals, the importance of families, the just deconstruction of decentralization of humanity is just something that's really important and that causes, you know, is going to enable a lot more freedom and a lot more human flourishing than it's currently able to happen in this current environment. So I just, and again, all of you guys here, I'm sitting here when Ben, you know, I reached out to me and asked me if I wanted to participate.

I'm like, let's see, keep it simple bincoin. I was using his videos the other day. I was like looking at cold card videos and appreciate him. Guy, sorry, man, we didn't get to our, the thank God for Bitcoin audiobook, but like seriously, I've appreciated your work. You know, Will, I was just mentioning before we got on the air that I have a cousin who, in the three or four days leading up to today,

he's been sitting, probably sent me 30, of Will's tweets and then BTC sessions. I'm sitting here like, you know, Ben, like your videos have helped me. And I've sent them to a bunch of family members. So, I mean, just the fact that like the whole, the whole Bitcoin atmosphere is built around adding value to other people. You know, it's built around serving and helping people and providing their needs and making money off of adding value to people and not, you know, having zero-sum games where you get money

at people's expense. So I just, the entire ethos of the community, It's just something that means a lot to me, and that just has me bullish, as I think about the, you know, the months and years that are to come. I love it. I love it. Bullish on Bitcoins. I'm bullish on existing bitcoins, and I'm bullish on new bitcoins because I've got a three-year-old daughter, and in one week, I will have a son alongside her. Oh, man.

Congratulations. Yeah. So I'm minting Bitcoins over here. you know I've got one for the past one for each of the past two epochs so we'll see if we'll keep up that pace. Nice.

Congrats, dude. That's awesome. Yeah, the having event. Yeah, the having of my relevance in the family as a whole. I'll toss it to Guy Swan here. You know, Jams bullish on Bitcoiners. Maybe you want to toss out a few of your

favorite bit corners that you think are doing great things and are an asset to the space or any other thoughts that you have here too. Holy crap. Not to put you on the spot or anything. I want to know your top number one Bitcoiner.

You can only name one. You're not allowed. You exclude everybody else and they will all feel bad. Oh my God. No, just seriously. The number of Bitcoiners who have like I mean it's

insanely bullish the number of people who have left something else and have tried to devote everything to the Bitcoin space. I mean I'm just watching and it's like you know swans hired people on chains hiring people or whatever and people like in my the audio nots group or whatever in the telegram somebody's like I just got a job it blah blah blah you know

and it's like a steady stream of people just like how do we how do we keep building this out And I get constant. I get constant messages of people. Like, you know, I love to show I've been trying to figure out how I could actually contribute to Bitcoin in some way. If you ever need any help, like, I'm here. I want to build and do things here in Bitcoin. And I think it just goes to show how deep the care and the reasoning, like the philosophy and the reason for being here really goes.

and that this is not just something where you know, I mean, this is not crypto where it's just like it's either you and we've got crypto kitties and number go up. Like this is something that really changes how people think about things and how people think about building solutions for the future. And they're very serious about it.

And I just, I'm crazy bullish on all of it. And I've gotten more proposals to rebooks than I know what to do with. and everybody's just writing awesome stuff. Like awesome stuff. I mean, I'm up to like 170 authors or whatever that I've read. I mean,

I've read a lot of things like from people who have like five articles or 15 articles like Parker Lewis or something on the show. But like there's still just so many new people that I keep bumping into and new great articles have some interesting perspective on it or an analogy or a way to think about something that just, was almost there, but they just add some spice to it that you're like, holy crap,

and it sees it so much more vividly in a new way. And there's still just so much thought being contributed to the space. And I'm just crazy, I'm just crazy bullish on all of that. Like I think the space has grown and the amount of time and devotion

that people are turning around and trying to give back to Bitcoin The fact that that I see is continually increasing, I think is awesome. I love what John said in the chat here. And black hole industry sucks everybody in from their regular jobs. 100%. I love it. Kiss, what are you feeling?

Are you bullish on Bitcoinsers too? Do you have any that come to mind? Yeah, you know, I can speak from personal experience. Just the motivation to control. tribute is become so strong. For me, I felt like I have, like I spent a year and a half just trying to figure out how to do it in a way that actually delivers value because I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do it. And I think it feels like to me everybody that we're talking about shares that like same spark.

You know, J.M. Sees the spark, shares it like, and so it's so important because the, the, I guess what people outside of the space coming into the space, looking into the space, you know, like laser eyes, things like that,

they see people that they label radical or extreme or whatever it is. Because to see, a human being that stands for something so fully and so powerfully is in our present Fiat system such a rare thing, right? It's uncommon because everybody is just droning along, droning along, trying to make the best of it, but not even really standing for much of anything. And it's good because it wakes other people up. Everything that we do and the stance that we take wakes people up. And that's valuable. And I was listening to Peter McCormack's

podcast with American Hoddle and just while I was working today on a guide. And American Hoddle was talking about how everybody in his real life doesn't listen. And that's the same thing for me too. Nobody in my in my in my in my real life, you know, has any exposure to Bitcoin. And I told every single one of them and like I bought them books, Bitcoin's debt, like spent money and time and energy. Nobody listens, right? But who's listening? Who am I helping? People I don't even know that reach out to me on the internet. And I think that's also something that a lot of people can relate to. It's like, oh, the people that I have. want to help the most don't want to be helped and four years ago I told you to do

this and now what I mean what are we 50x I mean we're way about 50x from when I was sending people Bitcoin standard right maybe less than that but it's like oh you could help yourself but you didn't and you know what I can't feel bad for you I love you but you know you can only help yourself like I can't really help anyone I can just do what I think is valuable and hopefully it helps people and if it does, I keep doing that. That's the best that I can do. And the same for all of us, right?

Like, you just got to keep it moving and focus your energy where you feel like it's best served. And that's why I'm so bullish because I see people doing that all over Twitter. And I know that there's so much of it that we don't even see. Yeah. So super bullish. Yeah, 100%.

There's so many great people in the space that are contributing so much. Will, I don't know if, I mean, you're one of them that you've been putting out great stuff as of late. But are there any people that stand out to you that you've kind of, you know, have helped you. You're relatively new into the space. So like who did you get, you know, who did you start off with with your learning? Can I interrupt real quick?

I just, Will, what's your handle? Do I follow you? I think so. It's W. Clemente, which is CLE. Oh, oh. I didn't even, I didn't even recognize you. Yeah, I follow you. With the laser eyes, man.

It was. Where are they? What did you do? I mean, cut them along. But to answer your question, man, well, first of all, I just wanted to touch on something Kish said that, you know, I think with all due respect to you guys, I'm young. My generation hasn't been taught what I feel like is kind of like this complacency. and I feel like with years and years of this kind of Fiat way of thinking and that has kind of been drilled into generations before, it's hard to change that way of thinking. And so I think for me and my generation, we're young and, you know, to some extent I think like our ignorance is an asset to us and to the extent that we don't know anything different.

And like, like, I haven't, I haven't grown up in the incentive structure built around via currency. I've just, you know, come to, luckily, you know, I came across Bitcoin, but I didn't know any different. I was just like, oh, yeah, this is way better than paper currency. And then, like, I never even think of it as like, you know, something like I had to make this big turnaround to move over into this thing. So I think that's, you know, over the next couple decades, I think, um,

as your generation gets a little older, I think the younger people are going to be, especially because of the digital aspect of it, but also because they don't know any different. And in that sense, I think there'll be a lot more hands on with Bitcoin and they'll accept it easier and won't take as much for them to transfer over from the old Fiat system, if that makes sense. Yeah, 100%. Are you noticing amongst people that you talk with, that are your age. I mean,

first of all, do any of them, like, reference Bitcoin to have you had those conversations with people around you? And, like, what's the general feel?

Like, is it, is there a lot of the, oh, like, it's boiling the oceans kind of fud? Or is it like, is there interest,

is their curiosity, or is there just like, I don't care? Like, what's your feel around that? And is there rampant shit-coining, too? Please answer that.

Yeah, man. The unit bias is a big problem, for sure. But the big thing is that people are, they're very accepting of the digital space, because that's what we've all grown up. And, you know, I've grown up, I've always had the internet. I don't know any different. I've always had a cell phone. I had my first cell phone when I was in my fourth grade. You know what I mean? Like, it's just like I grew up with it. And so did everybody else around me. So to us, it's very native. And to us, it's just kind of natural to have the digital currency via the internet. And in that sense, people are much more willing to, I think for my parents, for example,

like I'm still working on them. But for them, you know, they're older and they're like, oh, internet money, you know, how is it? How can you not just create more? Like all those kinds of things because they just, they haven't been able to wrap their head around the whole internet. Like my parents aren't very tech savvy or any of those kinds of things. So I think that's part of the reason why everybody in my generation has been much more hands-on.

But yeah, they have been asking a lot of questions. There's a lot of shit-corning. But aside from that, they just need the little discussion. And then they're like, okay, I get it. But it's there. Like the potential for them to understand it is there. And they're open-minded to figuring it out, which is, I think, what we're. really matters. And to answer your other question in regards to people that I kind of look up to in

the space, first of all, Preston Pish, because he's the one that really got me into, originally the discount cash flow based kind of investing, and that's what led me to the realization that you need sound currency to make economic calculation based off of free cash flow. So that was a big light bulb moment for me. But I think he takes this financial understanding and he has like this very deep financial background. And he's able to apply that. And he's kind of like the bridge between the old traditional fiat system to this new system. And he's able to kind of word things in a way that are understandable for people that are outside of the Bitcoin space.

So I think he's won. Plan B as well. Plan B is brilliant. I think he's got a lot of. experience in the fixed income space and he knows a lot about derivatives as well which is something that I'm trying to wrap my head around but he's very knowledgeable on that and then from a from an on chain perspective willy woo for sure I think he was like the OG on chain analyst but but he's created most of the metrics that I'm looking at on glass note he created half of them so that guy that guy's a

genius awesome I love it it blows my mind that you're 18. I'm literally, so my birthday is tomorrow and I'm actually, I'm turning double your age tomorrow. So I can feel bad about that and you feel good about that. Should we all sing? Should we all sing in like half a second delay? Happy birthday. Try and harmonize. Yeah. Yeah. Let me just say one thing too. Just kind of Will was mentioned kind of the dynamic of, you know, the older people and not, you know, the concept of a digital world being harder for them to kind of square with. I actually had a conversation with a, you know, a Uruguayan lady here about the other day about it. And she had spent some time in Sweden. And there's a town in

Sweden. I'm sure you guys know what it is. There's a town in Sweden where like every day except Bitcoin everywhere. And so she was saying that it's been, it was a kind of, it's a kind of controversial thing there because the older people don't understand it. And so it's like this thing where the older people are at a disadvantage. And so she was presenting, that as maybe like a negative of a Bitcoin where, you know, of a world where Bitcoin plays a bigger role. And the conversation I have with there was honestly, for the last 50 years, you know, the people who grew up in that area, the people who are older now have been at, have had a severe advantage over young people, you know, given, you know, the price of assets and all these

other things that young people have been at a complete disadvantage. And so it's really kind of appropriate. I mean, I think it's really interesting to see how, you know, Bitcoin is kind of, you know, maybe tipping the scales back. So there's not quite that same. level of inequality. It is really just interesting how things happen. VGA put out a chart the other day and it was comparing the difference between, I don't want to get the generation one, but it was essentially the older generations compared to, I think, millennials.

And the gap is just huge. And the real reason I think, and I think you guys would agree is that the monetary policy in the last couple decades of manipulating interest rates and then, of course, Huey over the last 10 years. But I think those older generations had benefited so much from the money printing just by holding assets that are going up in default just because there's more units that they're being measured in. So like you said, I completely agree that now the playing field is kind of being measured. And it also aligns with, in Ray Dalio's book, Big Debt Crisis, he talks about these different ways that these debt crises are resolved.

There's austerity. There's, you know, like UBI and direct money. And then there's QE. And then the very last thing when all those, you know, manipulating interest rate, and the very last thing when all those things aren't working anymore, the last thing is wealth transfer slash revolution. And so usually what that entails is some kind of conflict, usually a war. And, you know, if you look at the history of like these debt, these debt cycles and credit cycles, usually it ends in. some kind of war. But now I think Bitcoin is offering this new outlet where, you know, if Bitcoin wasn't here, I mean, there'd be have to be some kind of endgame to all of this. And Bitcoin offers, I think, the most peaceful revolution and wealth transfer to resolve the debt crisis that we're in. In addition to the inequality and the difference between these generations that have resolved, you know, that have came about because of, because of the money printing. Well, if you haven't read it already,

you should read the fourth turning. It's very much about, oh, it's, I'm actually about halfway through it right now. I sadly hadn't read it, but yeah, I'm actually listening on audiobook right now, but it's solid. It's basically talking about kind of these 20-year generational shifts and kind of these different epochs and how these, after about four turnings, there's some sort of big crisis that that resets and puts us into like an awakening,

a new era. Basically, it goes on the premise of hard times, create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, weak men create hard times. And so it's just kind of cycles through and based on kind of when you're born

and what you're experiencing at certain points of your life, you'll have a different type archetype and how you respond to those external stimuli. It's really, really cool. And it definitely makes me think of kind of like where I'm at with my generation, where my parents were at and where my kids are going to be at. And it's unique to have like people of different generations discussing this stuff. You know, we've got people like Gary Leland, you know, on shows and hosting conferences. And then you've got, you know, people like yourself that are just,

coming into the space, all kind of uniquely fitting into this space and are like cogs in this new, what I imagine will be kind of a, like you said, a peaceful monetary revolution. It's so cool to see how each, I guess, each archetype is going to play their part in this global shift. I love it. I love it. Yeah, I'll check out the book, man. I appreciate it. It's interesting thing that that lines up exactly with Ray Dalio's 80 year debt cycles and you're saying it's 420 years. So that's actually really interesting. Yeah.

One other thing just to like touch on what you said, I know I've been talking a lot, but I wrote a piece called the Bitcoin Renaissance and that kind of aligns with what we're kind of getting at. So maybe we could move the conversation in that direction. But I think having a sound money is is going to make society as a whole just so much better. and we're going to have this new era of just prosperity and just in general optimism. You know, like I think we're in such a pessimistic society that's been based off of these fiat ways of thinking and incentive structures. But I think Bitcoin will kind of bring back this new sense of optimism and just in general, like just new era of just of flourishment of all kinds of different things.

I think, I think, you know, the Bitcoiners have that saying, fix the money, fix the world. People don't, you know, money really does have a big impact on a lot of things aside from just the financial aspect of it. And that's what I think a lot of Bitcoiners are here for. Like, we're here, obviously, you know, a lot of us, I got into Bitcoin. I don't want to speak for you guys, but I got into Bitcoin because this thing is like a rocket ship going up, you know. But I stayed when I understood all these kind of philosophical and just in general, like better ways that Bitcoin incentivizes society to act. And that's why I'm really, you know, I'm all in on Bitcoin,

not just because like I'm all in because I want all of, I want more return, but because I want to do everything I can. Like, yeah, my $50 I'm buying, you know, that's not really going to do anything. but at least I can sleep at night saying, look, I contributed $50 towards, and that's the best I could do and everything that I could put forth to contribute towards a better society. I love it. I'm bullish on Will.

So is the chat. Everybody's bullish on Will and the new generation of Bitcoin is coming up. Awesome. Let's keep this rolling. Let's get into our next reason. We have about 170 people watching right now. Smash that like button. Give this a share.

Let's keep it rolling. I'm going to toss it to our good friend Guy Swan here to drop his reason for being bullish. I'm also going to, I just have to step away for a second, but I am still here and I can still hear this. But Guy, yeah, feel free to drop your reason. And if I'm not back before you finish your reason, then keep it simple. You can tag on your thoughts. Awesome. So I actually wanted to say something about that the dynamic of the quote unquote unfairness or whatever of the older generation and the younger generation, like having access to this or kind of being more familiar with it.

But then you say, well, they've kind of like unfairly benefited. Well, if you like really take like a huge step back and like look at the major picture, like you see. that literally those older generations, whether this was the actual intent or not, what they've actually done is the reason all of their prices and profits and retirements and pensions and everything are propped up is by the liability that the younger generation will pay for it. This is why we have a trash economy. This is why even my generation, but even worse, the generations below me are going to get out of college and still just work at Starbucks. You know, it's the, it's the very reason we are in such a horrible situation today is because of the debt that has been

they have pulled all of our futures forward so that they can sit comfortably today. And yeah, that's being corrected and it should be, you know? Like how dare somebody be next door? But so like on that point, like I think this is a this is a necessary correction, right? And it, uh, in the, hold on one second. No worries. I, I would tag on there. Uh, I, I definitely agree with the sentiment here.

Um, you know, part of the reason that I'm, you know, even able to, you know, myself and my wife now that we're having our second kid, like we, we finally, you know, we bought a home. We're in a home. and we're kind of, you know, settling down into this like our family home that we're going to be in for, you know, years, decades. And we're kind of like setting out our lives. But I wouldn't have been able to do this without Bitcoin. Not a chance.

Like you like coming into it just even with a well-paying job to have that kind of a down payment, to have the funds necessary, you know, in a, a, a fiat world where you're you're you know you're working nine to five and and you put away what you can and groceries keep exploding. I can't even imagine with all the money that was just printed what what would be facing my children, you know, a couple decades out when they try to finish and go into real life. It's it if Bitcoin wasn't there. I, I shudder to think. Anyways, guy, sorry, go ahead. No, I had to let the dogs calm down. Somebody said they saw a central banker and I was like,

but like, you know, like this is, this is the proper correction. Like the, like Bitcoin is the exit. It's them saying, like, I'm not going to be saddled with this burden. You know, the burden that has been put on the economy is not of our creation. It's the political systems and the central banking systems. and it was done by selling it to the older generations that this is just what we need and this is how you get your benefit.

And I, it's, I mean, we're in the worst. This is the thing that just gets me is particularly like all my normie friends, just think that this is business as usual. And some of them are waking up and being like, this is surreal. There's something very odd going on. But to just look at this from a historical perspective, we're not like in a. big debt bubble. We're in the greatest debt bubble in the history of humankind, like, ever. Like, this makes the Roman Empire jealous, you know, like, it's unbelievable the financial situation

we are in, and it is global. It's not even, it's in the world reserve currency. It's not like one country that is in this situation. It is the entire fiat system. And like Bitcoin is the exit, know, and people are opting out. Like, they're, they're sick of, they're sick of being on the hamster wheel. And for very good reason. Go kiss. I want to jump on that. Am I echoing?

A little bit. Nope. I don't hear you. It sounds like you're in your kitchen, but I don't, I don't hear echo. Oh, fuck. I think I got you. Just to tap on real quick, I just wanted to say, we've never had an assessment. escape valve. So the manipulation has been able to take place because there's never been an alternate

system. And God, I got this literally from your podcast. We pressed it. But yeah, there's never been an escape valve to step out of the manipulation. And that's what Bitcoin is offering. Absolutely. We got you, Cass. Yeah. Yeah, we got you. I want to jump on the piggyback on that. So regarding the fourth turning, we're talking about the fourth turning. And, how these periods always culminate in some huge kind of explosion, right? And that explosion transitions into that next awakening. And I think because of Bitcoin, what we're going to see is hopefully not an external war, but what we're seeing is an internal war because we now have a sovereign tool, right,

like the invention of gunpowder or the gun. We have a tool where you and us, you and I can use this tool in order to transition ourselves into that better place. And so the war is going to be internal because people have to come to grips with reality, and then they have to make a choice. They have to make a choice that I want to be accountable, and I want to be part of that new place, that better world. and I'm okay with that painful transition. And hopefully it doesn't culminate in a war like we've seen for hundreds of years

because the wars are fought by the ones that hold the power, they hold the money, the control over the coffers, right? They clip the coins, they use the money in order to get everybody else to fight their battles. Bitcoin puts an end to that. And so, you know, my reason for being bullish, which I'm not going to bring up necessarily yet, but it kind of comes down to the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. And these federal governments, the U.S. government thinks they're an immovable object and don't acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin's an unstoppable force.

And they're going to come to terms with that in a very traumatic way. And we're going to be living through this process, right? Because they cannot continue to throw the human energy, right? To throw bodies, to throw our bodies in front of it in order to kind of triage their situation. They're going to run out of that because more and more people are going to be like, you know what? I'm going to just step over here and you figure out your own thing. And that's going to be the transition.

Go ahead. Yeah. Yeah, no, we, I mean, that's one of the things that we talk about and thank God for Bitcoin is we talk about just about the idea. It's like all throughout the, I mean, we use the scriptures to kind of be like an evaluative, you know, thing. And so one of the scriptural principle that you see everywhere is just the principle of sewing and reaping. And so we live in a world at this point that completely denies sewing and reaping. Like, you know, Fiat basically says it allows you to create your own reality by printing. We can get out of any problem by printing money.

And so like when you look at, I mean, like Bitcoin, the reason why it works is because it does follow sewing and reaping principles. Like there's this basic, it acknowledges the real world in which it lives in. And it lives according to those things. And so there's Horace, the writer who wrote The Odyssey. I think it's Horace who wrote that? No, whoever, I can't remember what the book is, he wrote, but basically Horace, one of the things that he said was, you may drive out nature with a pitchfork,

but it will always come back. And so I think that, like, for a hundred years, you know, we've had, you know, for especially 50, you know, since we went off the gold standard, we've been living against reality, and we've been able to get away with it. and but like those chickens are going to come home to roost like you can't just deny reality forever and uh yeah and so again like one of the there's is so funny like one of the things there's all these

like biblical allusions to the situation that's going on right now and this is this is probably one of my favorite ones is you have so the number 40 in this in the in the in the bible is it's it's like a period of testing or judgment so you if you guys know anything any history of the bible like you have like the Israelites were in you know uh the wilderness for 40 years You have, you know, all you have, let's see, there was 40 days that the arc was on the waters. So there's all the number 40 keeps coming up over and over again. And so it just so happens that from 1971 to 2011, when Bitcoin started to really get, it's, you know, wide, it started to get more widespread attention and be adopted on a more

widespread basis is about 40 years. And so like for me, again, I'm not saying that's, you know, this is some divine thing, but it just was really interesting to me that fiat ruled the world for 40 years. And then, you know, it's right around then that this other thing comes in. And so, you know, Bitcoin comes in and it starts to break down, you know, the fiat world that has been, you know, wreaking havoc on the world. And so then the other cool thing that other people have brought up, I think Breed loves talked about this, is just the idea of, again, within, you know,

the Jewish framework of things, every 50 years, they had this year of Jubilee. And so this this is where like debts were, debts were canceled and basically like, you know, and again, it wasn't all debts, but it was basically a lot of debts. It was basically kind of a cultural reset where you can go back to, everybody can just start over and be a more stable, just more sustainable situation. And so if you look at like what's 50 years from 1971 is 2021. And so part of me is like, wouldn't it be super appropriate if we hit hyper-bitonization? you know, in 2021. And we get basically a natural Jubilee. Yeah. I can just reset the system. Yeah. Yeah.

So again, I'm not going to swear by that, but I just think it'd be really cool if they did happen. I just wanted to tag in, you know, there's, in nature, there's this natural thing of, kind of the yin and yang thing, you know, you have to have night if you have day and there's this natural course of thing. I just wanted to throw in this little excerpt from Jeff Boots. Jeff is awesome. I love that boat. He says the problem comes from believing we can outrun inflation and the natural order of things by creating more and more debt.

It's a bit like trying to flap your arms to fight gravity. Gravity will win. Even a plane using massive gravity to stay in the air must eventually land. So that goes completely with that whole, you know, there's a natural flow of things and you can try to fight against it. as long as you want, but eventually nature will work itself out. And you can't outdo the natural order and flow of the way that things are. And like in that in that concept too is that the very attempt of government trying to manipulate it is the thing that makes them fail. Right.

Like it's it's the very, it's the pretense of knowledge concept of Hayek is that like they are assuming that they can put on reality what they want it to be rather than accept what reality is. And the analogy I like to use is that the attempt to cook the books in order to reshape reality is akin to thinking that you can you can fix, you can break the gauge and just like hold it at level in your airplane. And that means that your airplane is flying straight when your airplane is actually going down. Is it like you can pretend and you can make the gauge screw up for a long time and maybe your plane's really high in the air so it takes you a good couple of hours before you actually land and you know hit the mountain but at the end of the day like your plane is going down

and you're trying to hold the altimeter so that nobody knows that that's what's happening um and so they're very attempt to try to mess with the gauge it's like trying to say you know you know we call two fish today but we're going to write down on this piece of paper that it was three and we're going to all we're all going to plan as if we have three meals and and and and that's what they're doing. They're just lying. They're just lying about reality. And the very nature of a lie has consequences. That's

what makes it false. You know? But I'd realize we just kind of like way down the stream. If you all still want to hear why I'm bullish, it has nothing to do with this. Even though it's all of these reasons.

This is so bullish already. It was like, my God. All right, yes. But my reason for being bullish right now, particularly the last couple of days. I'm going to see if I can get close to the camera. See these notifications. These are my sphinx notifications. Yes. The people streaming sets to my podcast. It's just on and on. And they're in like they're in like groups. Like they'll be like it'll be like blank for like an hour or two. And then I'll get like another like 80 notifications. And it's just like one of them like and I can see too because there's like a couple of

people like it's like nine sats 43 sets uh 22 sats like you know just a various because they're all just donating right and like just like even think that the the the small ones like nine sats it's like that's like half a penny so like on an hour and a half podcast that's like 50 cent and like somebody somebody's just paying that over lightning constantly and like my every single week. I mean, I've, shit, every time I'm on BT session show, I'm talking about lightning. Lightning is the reason I'm bullish always, apparently. But it's literally because every single time I come back on, I'm using it in a new way, or it's become more reliable, or I have like three new wallets. They're awesome. Breeze just implemented podcast, too. So you can now do this with Breeze and Spinks.

And it's just, it's absolutely awesome what you can do with this. And if anybody hasn't listened to Paul, on TFTC. Oh my God, if you just want to get like irresponsibly bullish, that's the one to listen to right now. And then at the exact same time, I liken it to or attribute it to possibly the, it's probably a combination of things. But the fact that Node software is improving substantially, it's becoming a whole lot easier to actually set up. Umbrel is incredibly user friendly. My node, the RASPie Blitz, the Start 9, Embassy, all of these things that are popping up. Node counts are on the rise again for like the first time in two years. Yeah.

Or three years or something like that. That's awesome. And a pretty substantial rise. And I think it's because there's an explicit benefit now for having it. And the software has gotten that much easier and smoother to implement. And then also the build out of the lightning network, everybody's got a note. You know, like kind of the idea of like I've got to get my lightning node up is that I've got to have a full node to defend and make my lightning node, you know, really quick and responsive and basically ready and in sync. And I think that's a big deal.

I think as lightning rolls out, we'll see a, we'll see it actually make the infrastructure layer. we'll actually see the base layer get that much more robust because of lightning infrastructure. You know, they're kind of one in the same. And I'm super jacked about that. I think what we're about to see unfold with strike, with Sphinx, with all of these things, like they're just, they're little sparks that, oh, my God, there's going to be an inferno of what you can do with this thing. And I think we're only six months to a year out to just crazy, crazy development and potential adoption. The breeze stuff is awesome.

I just saw that and I'm just getting set up to have the pot on there. I haven't played with Sphinx yet. But like just again, like lightning is getting quite a bit easier. I was messing around with Moonwallet the other day too where it's just a single unified balance and there's no. there's no delineation between whether it's on chain or off chain. It's off chain by default, but like the user doesn't see any of that. And they've implemented these interesting things where you know, you can receive a regular Bitcoin payment just through the QR code or you can receive like a lightning invoice.

And it comes into the wallet. It sits in a lightning channel, but they do something called splicing on the way out. So if it requires an on-chain transaction, it will actually close the channel, send in the process of closing the channel, send out a Bitcoin transaction. But the change will actually be creating a brand new lightning channel in the same process in the same transaction. So it's all just simultaneous. Everything is automated on the way out, which is fantastic. And like the user has no idea. It just works.

And I think it's a great tool for atomic swapping. Like if like somebody's on like lightning network, like you could just send it to a Bitcoin, send it to your moon, then send it to a Bitcoin address like like, you know, green wallet or blue wallet or something. And you just don't even,

you don't see it. You don't use like a service or anything like that. You just use your wallet. It's crazy. It's so cool. Your other guys here, have you, what are your experiences with lightning thus far?

and I'm talking as my camera dies, but keep going if anybody wants to jump in here. Ben, let me just let me just let you know. So I just created you an invite on Sphinx. So as soon as I paid for this year, it's like taking a second to load. But as soon as I do that, I'll shoot it to you and you can hop on there in Sphinx and check it out. Somebody posted today, my first interaction with Lightning, they said, again, this probably isn't, it's not precisely true, but I think for a lot of people it is, the original, how do they phrase it?

I can't remember how the tweet was phrased it. basically it was like the first the first intro to lightning for a lot of people was the fold app and for me that was the truth that was the first time i mean like i had heard about it but the fold app was really the first time where i was like i really thought about how to use it and even did use it a couple times um and so i just think like those guys again they're just doing awesome work um as far as other things i've been playing around with with it a little bit on my on the uh the start night embassy i haven't got to set up yet it's just somebody they just added the btc paste server too so over there trying to get that set up.

But yeah, I mean, Sphinx has been awesome. I just, you know, reloaded a few times and have sent people stuff. I've used a strike app to just mess around with, I don't know if you guys have heard of like Tudanoda. Not Tudanota, what is it, Azteco, Azteco Bitcoin vouchers. Yeah, yeah. You could buy non-KYC Bitcoin vouchers.

And they charge like a 5%, you know, royalty fee or whatever. But like, so you can pay for that with, you know, with the strike app. So I just, it's just such a cool implemented. The fact that it's so quick, it just blows my mind. Every time I use it up,

like, the money's already there. It's already settled. It was like two seconds ago. It's already settled and everything is good to go. It's just awesome. That's awesome.

KSF, have you dove into Lightning? What have you played with yet? Yeah, I mean, I've been running my note for, for the last year, and I barely,

I barely do anything with it. I started playing with Spings a couple months ago. I haven't opened the app in a little while, but it's amazing how much easier it's gotten. And once, you know, once devs kind of automate the channel management and stuff and liquidity, that, you know, the users needs to be part of that now. And when that's automated away, I mean, with things like Spinks, strike is amazing. You know, I use strike to stack stats.

I just send, I send it straight into my samurai wallet or into joint market. And it's so fast. I mean, I even recommend, you know, to nubes just get strike because it's so easy. Unfortunately, there's a limit, a weekly limit on it, but it's so easy to use. So it's really exciting. Marty bent on RHR a couple of days ago. I don't know if it's a declaration, but you know, he's like by 2022, he wants to completely get rid of ads and just have value for value.

And I think that's so amazing because like people need to kind of step in the front and show people what can be done in order to build that. You know what I mean? I mean, that's kind of why I wear this mask because I want to like show people you can you can add value and create and not have to, you know, participate in this KYC kind of regime. like Bitcoin allows that and it's the most beautiful thing ever because you can just provide value on your terms and if that value is appreciated, people will provide value in return as backflow for that. I mean, that's like the most free will kind of, you know, exchange like it's beautiful. It's it's why I Bitcoin, you know, it's like the most beautiful thing. And it's awesome.

Yeah, Sue, I love it. I love it. And I think we're only about six months or a year away to where it explodes. I think Sphinx and this like automated kind of like the programmable channel management stuff like that. And you know, it'll be a huge inflow. I mean, it'll be massive.

Yeah. Yeah, there's a on that point actually, which is so cool about the whole podcasting 2.0 thing. The fact that this is just, you just have your key send, like you just have your lightning address, essentially, in the RSS feed, right? But the really fascinating idea or the really fascinating kind of like fundamental way that it works is that you can split payments automatically just in the feed. So like it's just it's just a detail of like percent and then like the key send address. So what, and what Adam, when I was talking with Adam on the show, what he talked about is that, like, you could have, like, the people doing your artwork, like, automatically have, like, they put their keys in, and it's, like, 5% of whatever the episode is that they did the artwork for, just automatically goes to them. There's no middleman. There's no payment process. There's no splitting it. Like, it just 5% goes to them, 95% goes to the episode creator. And you say, like, you know, Mark, you know, Mark, already bent and crew or whatever they want to go like ad free they want to see if you could get

actually this value for value thing like full on um well i've been fighting with how to figure that out myself like what the time frame be um to actually make something like that work and i've been fighting with trying to figure out how to make a private rs s s feed and set all this stuff up and like have it so that sphinx and or breeze or whatever just has that rssfid that has a separate publication of my show with no ads, right? But it's been a huge headache. I have changed my workflow so that it's relatively easy to cut my ads out now, the way I build my stuff for about 40 episodes back now,

which is like a month. But I haven't figured out the technicals of it. And then it just struck me like two days ago that I was like, rather than A, trying to figure out all the work myself, or be trying to hire somebody else to do it, why don't I offer to somebody that I'll split the sats with automatically, like just in the feed, with somebody who could work out all the publishing side of it?

And so just through the idea and the audio knots and we might have somebody who was working in broadcasting, she was like, oh, I'd love to take a hand at it and just split sats with you or whatever. And I could publish it. I'll cut everything out. I've worked in broadcasting, so I know all the ins and outs of it.

And so, like, I might actually be able to get it done without having to do any work. And, like, if it provides that value, people like the ad-free version.

And I got something to show on the show. I got to be like, guys, go do the ad-free version. It's like 50 cent an episode, right? Do nine stats. Like,

yeah. What is that? The other thing, it's so incredible. Like, the other thing, like Marty and NBCK, we're in the thing talking about, and Sphinx talking about it.

We're like, we can do clubhouse in here. like we could do house style rooms in here we could do I mean they do they hopped on like a just like an audio call like whoever was in there that wanted to they just hopped on they said I mean Paul was just basically and you can customize within the sphinx you can customize this and anything you want to um you know just depending on what your needs are like I in the uh yeah in the tail from the crypt little thing I just made like a couple I hopped in looka.com and made a couple logos or made it's a couple things just like I mean just little like I made one that was like

Clark Moody is my homeboy or something like that. It's like threw it up in there and, you know, put, you know, 200 sats on it and somebody bought it. You know, and so like it's just stuff like that. You can just find, you create things and just throw them in there. And then, you know, if they add value to people, they, you know, people are going to add. It's just, it's just incredible. If you're a creative person, I mean, I'm sitting there, I'm like, man, okay, what can I do to be creative and add bad value of people?

But I can just imagine people if you're, if you're, I was thinking through, I mean, like somebody like Breed Love, you know, who's putting out popping out articles. I mean, he, I'll show his little thing. He's got this telegram group where he's helping, he's starting to write his next book. And you can pay, like, I think it's like $3 a month to be in this telegram group and he gives you like advanced things. But I was just sitting there. I was thinking for his benefit, I'm like, man, he just needs to get a Sphinx chat, throw this in there. And then he can be monetizing the development of the book in addition to, you know, just getting feedback from people.

So it's just such a cool. The possibilities are just so interesting. Yeah, I just love that. the idea of like no rent seeking, you know, it just, if somebody's adding value, you want to, again, like nobody's forcing you to pay a certain amount, but like if you want to, you know, as you have a, you know, the ability to do so, being willing to pay a little more. It's just such a cool model. Yeah, I love it.

Yeah, 100%. And Will, have you, have you dabbled in in any lightning yet? Or are you just kind of getting around regular wallet so far? Where are you at? yeah man to be honest i really haven't checked out any of that um i think it's really interesting um i remember preston did a podcast with uh jack mallors and i was like whoa and this is going to change a lot um but to be honest i have a node but i just i haven't gotten around to to mess around with lightning but but i will um yeah i think some big good if if you're if you're just getting

started. Maybe try something like Breeze, B-R-E-E-Z or Phoenix if you're on Android or even like Moonwallet, M-U-U-N. All of those are like pretty easy, like simple onboarding. Your phone runs a lightning node.

Yeah, it's cool to use and just play around. And it also, you know, if you are moving money around, even just friend to friend, then you're not paying massive on-chain fees. when you start to do that. So yeah, for me, it's been a lifesaver, absolutely.

Yeah, I think it's important as well. As we transfer from the store of value to a medium of exchange, it's going to be very important to see these developments in Lightning. Yeah, 100%. Awesome. All right, we are down to our last reason for being bullish. We got a double reason from Guy, really. Like, I feel like I got double bullish from all of those things.

there's a ton of people in the chat leaving messages everybody smash that like button give this a share and we're going to jump to our last reason for being bullish kiss take it away what do you feel in this week so this this this movement this buildup of public sentiments kind of against bitcoin whether it's like j powell talking about bitcoin's like gold and you know it's highly speculative because obviously they don't think much of gold or they they're also talking about you know they don't like the the privacy aspect and people can't have you know like Swiss banks digital currencies can't be Swiss banks and then the the fat if the that new you know that new guidance or pseudo guidance whatever it is so all this stuff

building up you have this all this energy fight and you know kind of Bitcoin being being this like evil energy you know killing the climate killing planet Earth we're seeing it right we're seeing as MarketCat goes up as NGU technology continues to to work we're seeing it kind of the the hate and the frustration with that you know people have that don't understand where it's coming from being channeled directed, you know, toward Bitcoin. And this makes me very bullish because I've always felt like we have to get to that point where they fight, you know, whether it's, you know, these the sovereigns, the central banks, the central banks, I know they understand what this is and none, these people are not stupid.

You know, they, they are very calm and calculated in what they say. they drone you know they're like drones or like robots but they know it's up and um we're getting into that that that phase you know whether you the privacy wars or whatever where we're all going to kind of be like tested right and like we actually have to stand and that makes me very bullish because once we get through that phase um however it ends up playing out i i feel like that's when we're really going to start living in this hyper bitcoin eyes world and all this, you know, citadels and, you know, this kind of utopia. And I'm using that word very loosely.

Please, you know, don't run with that word, whatever you want to call it. That's where we're going to see that outpicturing, you know. But we have to get through this phase where this idea that the central bank is omnipotent and can rule this our planet, like, like that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, emperor having you know that that idea that deification of them needs to die they need to die now that doesn't mean fee our money collapses um but it's it's just like this this perceptual filter of them being omnipotent needs to i think needs to be cleansed from the global uh you know gestalt yeah it's i love what you're saying there and i

I mean, the same kind of stuff with, and I just see it in the chat, somebody bringing up World Economic Forum and those types of individuals. You know, what was the tagline? You'll own nothing and you'll be happy. Yeah. Yeah. It's not conspiracy. Like, they're telling you exactly what they want to do. And you go back and you read stuff like the Jekyll Island book, whatever, I can't remember the title of it.

The creature from Jackalind, right? It's not, like, they're putting it in our faces now. Everything that people have like, oh, conspiracy, this conspiracy, that. People can't, like, you know, it's not organized, whatever. Like, it's in your face. So now what, you know, like people, the cognitive dissonance is coming to a head and people have to kind of look at the reality of what's going on. and however deep or to whatever degree you want to face that, like pushes come in a shove

and either you wake up or you're going to get, you're going to feel the pain, right? Your purchasing power is going to leave you behind. Like it's going to get sucked through the straw. What is the quote from, there will be blood? Like the, like, I'm going to take my straw and I'm going to suck your milkshake or I don't know. You eat your milksake. I took it up. They can't keep doing that to everybody on the planet.

Yeah, this is very akin to the ideas in the fourth turning, where they talk about basically we're in that fourth turning now where old institutions effectively get torn down. And I see that as the money. the people, the central banks that rule the ruling class that get to dictate where they siphon people's wealth to get torn down. And in the awakening, you have like this era, this high for a new society to come forth. And if the timing from the last awakening to the new one is.

is somewhat accurate. That puts us at some point later this decade that kind of hitting that peak and moving into our new awakening phase. And I honestly think that that is Bitcoin. And I think that the old guard that gets dismantled is fiat currency and central banking. I think it's just time. It's something that Will mention, I think it was Will mention the article about the Renaissance. I mean, just like the printing press was like the death knell is the beginning of the end for these, you know, centralized, ossified institutions like the Catholic Church, you know, and I mean, they just, it was the death hell for them. Like as soon as as descent was able to be published on a wide basis, it was the beginning of the end for them. And so I just think Bitcoin is the exact same thing for, you know, this institution that is central banking that is ossified and centralized. And I mean, just it's not benefiting normal people. It's benefit. It's benefit. fitting a very small group of people, and it's time for it to die. And the sooner it happens, the better it will all be. And so I just think, again, you're like, again, it's not even just the system itself. Like, all of the people who are involved are old. Like, these are all old

people who, again, like you can, I mean, if we don't have to go deep into this, but you can argue that a lot of the response to the COVID, like with the lockdowns and stuff, is because the people who are most threatened by the disease were older people. And so all of the politicians were petrified that they're going to get it and die. And so it makes sense that they would take more drastic measures than if they were younger politicians. So again, just the incentive structure is completely perverse. And yeah, I just think it's, again, it's again, from my perspective, again, like this is not everyone's perspective. Like, I think there's somebody, like, there's somebody governing this whole thing and moving, I think we're going to a certain place. There's somebody,

the most important thing in the world are people, you know. And so like it, you know, I see this thing like the current situation, the current system is anti people to the core. And so this thing, this thing can't last forever. It's doomed to fail. And I just see Bitcoin as like as part of what's going to bring about, you know, this, this more natural, more sustainable existence. And I just think it's going to be a lot of fun.

I think it is a lot of fun. Just the process of doing that. You know, you're, you have people who are learning to stand up for, for, yeah, just there's, there's more important things than making money. There's more important things than just doing things that are easy and getting approval of people. I mean, I just see, again, that's, it's part of what I love about Bitcoiners. There's just there's this attitude of like, this is, this is wrong. This is insane. I don't care how much you tell me that this is okay.

Like, I'm looking, I'm, I'm humbling myself to look at history. I see this is insane. There's no historical precedent to continue down this path and everything being okay, it's not going to happen. And so again, we have humility and reality on our side, and so we can go triumphantly down the road and look all these big central bankers in their faces who look all impressive, but who are just full of hot air

and we can just say, hey, you're going to lose either when you die or when this system comes crashing down. So I just think we can have a lot of confidence in that, you know, and those, those things. So. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I want to get Will's,

will's, uh, take on this on the, the, I guess, kisses, what would you say? Then they fight you phase of the, the stages of, of, uh,

morning. Um, or whatever, whatever it is, but, uh, people always go about. And then they fight you and then you win.

Um, will, you're coming at it almost you were alluding to it earlier it's almost like it's not even on your front it's not you're not even fighting it's just like an open option for you and you're like well I mean I'll take the better one obviously like in your head is it are you you fighting to dismantle something or is it just like hey I'm just I'm just doing this yeah you know the way I see it is It's almost like when you think about you have different planets or different entities out in space, right?

And they all have different gravitational poles. And when you think about the Bitcoin network effect, it's the gravitational pull of the Bitcoin network is becoming stronger and stronger and stronger. And if you think about it like a black hole, we're approaching, I guess you could say the event horizon, the point of a black hole where, where not even light can exit. And I think we're kind of approaching that point of it. And so I look at it rather than we're taking away from the central bank system necessarily, it's this organic growing thing, and everything is just getting sucked into this thing that's organically growing itself,

if that makes sense. And in regards to, first they laugh at you, then they fight at you, that thing. I think we're obviously in that phase where they're starting to fight, but I don't think the central banks are stupid. I think, you know, at the end of the day, their job is to keep stability in the markets, and they understand what's going on. I think they fully know that this thing is not going to go away. And to go off with something guys said earlier, you know, the fiat currency meltdown that we're having, you know, in Wymore Germany, okay, this is an example, in Yomar, Germany, when the currency meltdown, a lot of merchants, they could just go to, they could just transfer over their accounting to a U.S. dollar base system, and they could just step out of it. But like I said, way earlier, that it's every single currency that that is going through this simultaneously. So Bitcoin is the only escape valve.

that there is. And so there's that aspect to it. So there's not really any, any country that people can step out to. And so I see this, the whole game theory of everything playing out. We're past the point of the critical threshold, if you will, in terms of network effects. And I actually, I, I, uh, DM'd Jeff Booth the other day and I was like, because he knows network effects better than almost anybody. And I was like, do you think, do you think we're like past that tipping point?

And he was like, absolutely. And it's at the point where it's like, if you understand that work effects, this thing, Bitcoin's already won at this way. Like the entrenchment into now, like they could have maybe shut it down like five,

six years ago. And Michael Saylor always gets at this as well. It's like, Bitcoin is so battle-hardened. And it's so now, at this point entrenched into the financial system. And there's so many high net worth individuals and now institutions, Tesla is probably the most predominant,

that there's no way that you can really unravel this thing, in my opinion. And another thing is, like, people in the United States don't realize because we have somewhat of a stable currency. Like, we're not going to go to Walmart tomorrow and then everything's going to be double in value, right? And so in that sense, like, obviously the currency is, stable, but in that sense, like overseas in these places like Venezuela, you know, you're looking at, you know, they're waking up some, sometimes and stuff is up 20% in value. Like, so for them, the volatility of Bitcoin in the short term isn't a problem because it's stable compared to

their currency. So they've already adopted their way ahead of everybody else. And so it's like, let's say the United States comes out tomorrow and says, okay, where they're putting in some kind of law to ban Bitcoin or whatever you want to call. I don't really think there's any law that you could ban Bitcoin, but let's just say that they try to do something like that. They say they're going to throw everybody in jail. It really doesn't matter because it's global. So there's all these other places in the world. And all it takes is one central bank to step in and say, hey, we're taking a 5% position in this thing. And it's all over at that point.

It's over. It just takes... It immediately becomes a race. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And on the point of volatility, sorry, I just, there's this great quote that I love by Timor Azari. He wrote a piece on Biglin magazine about what was going on in Lebanon. And his little headline, like halfway down the article, whatever, was a volatile currency for volatile times.

And he was talking about how, like, the instability of the fiat system, the quote-unquote price volatility of Bitcoin is actually preferable to the systemic risk that has grown so great in the only alternative, you know, but I just thought that was a great quote. I wanted to add that. It's also, if you're going to mention the volatility, it's like you're mentioning night without mentioning day, right? Like people like throwing out Bitcoin volatile. Yeah, you're getting 200% risk-adjusted returns every year. Like, what do you mean?

I doubled my money and then lost 20% of it. I'm upset. It's the worst argument. That is, I mean, in my opinion, that's worse than the government's going to ban an argument. Yeah, yeah. I mean, that one's just. Yeah, talking about the thing as far as, like, if, you know, when one of these banks

takes a 5% position, it's hilarious you say that guy because literally I was, I was driving home to get, you know, to hop on this call. and I hopped in Clubhouse. And as I'm in there, I'm in British Hoddle's room. And some, this, an SVP of Morgan Stanley hops in there and they bring them up on stage and they start just asking them questions about Morgan Stanley and Bitcoin. And so basically he just starts bragging about how like how bullish Morgan Stanley is and about how they have all these, they have like five trillion under management and how they're, I mean, just all they have so many customers who are reaching out. And so like, I mean, everyone's just like starting getting, I mean, the fervor of. of the room was like starting to just ride.

Oh my God. Yeah, seriously. Oh my God. Oh my God. It's a bullet. I was like asking him, you know, like, well, like how much, how much do you think this is going to affect Bitcoin's price and, you know, how, how much, what kind of percentage or, you know, what kind of percentage of people are going to, he's asking him all these

questions. And the guy who's basically like, I got to go. And it was like somebody, it was like somebody heard him talking. It was like, no, get out of here. Like you can't use numbers, you know. And so, I mean, just, but I mean, just that kind of thing. if you're talking, I mean, like they were talking about there's like for them, I think they capped it at like 2%. Like you can your customers, their customers can only put like up to 2% of

their net worth into Bitcoin. But then somebody else said like as soon as as soon as an ETF comes out, then like those caps go out the window and then you're throwing, you know, like five, 10% in there and five, five or 10% of five trillion is, you know, humongous numbers. And it's just mind blowing the scale and how quickly things move. Once you get that, level of money involved. I hadn't heard that, but that's awesome. I wish I would have been in that room. Damn, got to get on Clubhouse more.

As if I, as if I have extra time to spare. I'm about to say, yeah, I need to waste another eight hours on Clubhouse. I'll just, I'll just follow Bush and we'll be good. Guys, we ran super long. I know that you guys probably have stuff to do. I definitely do as well. So I'm going to start rounding it out here. but guys I had an awesome chat with you again always the best part of the end of my week

to sit down and be bullish with a bunch of awesome bitcoins. So I'm going to send it down the line one last time. If you guys can maybe just drop again who you are and where people can find you, whether it be like a Twitter handle or like anything that you've done that people, you website, anything like that, book, all of that. So Will, take it away. Yeah, sure. So thanks for having me on.

This was an awesome conversation. It was nice to meet you guys. My Twitter is W. Clementi, which is C-L-E-M-E-N-T-E-I-I-I. I'm the third. And then you can also look up on Bitcoin magazine. You can just type my name in and find some of the articles that I put together. Awesome.

And let's head over to Jam. Yep. My name is Jordan. I'm Jordan Bush. You can find me on Twitter at J.M. Bush writes. W-R-I-T-E-S. And then I, like I said, I contributed to thank God for Bitcoin, the creation, corruption, and redemption of money.

We actually just today, it's so appropriate, I'm on here with Guy the day that the Audible version of our book releases. So you can go get that on Amazon Audible. Then last, I guess it was last week or a week and a half ago, we did a hardcover version as well. So the next thing, Jimmy posted this the other day, Jimmy's song, that we're going to be doing, a book release party in Austin

on let's see it is April 7th so if you guys are going to be in town in Austin we'd love to see you at Fogo to Chow we're going to do like a yeah dinner there so if you're interested we'd love to see you awesome awesome guy you go

yo yo if you want to follow me I'm at the crypto economy and at Bitcoin Audible on Twitter and I got the Bitcoin Audible podcast, 600 and I don't know how many episodes now. And basically any possible work you could think of that you wanted to read in Bitcoin, in the Bitcoin space, particularly all the essentials and prerequisites.

I've probably got it in audio, like 98% there. And I got one of Will's recent ones actually on there too. and probably another one. I know I got another one in the list. So maybe another one of those soon. Oh, and actually on that note, you mentioned fourth turning. After, if anybody's reading the book,

after you read the book, you should definitely listen to and or read Brandon Quidam's Bitcoin in the Rhythms of History, which is a really great piece just taking that whole thesis and applying it to the shift that we're seeing in Bitcoin and what the generational store. tells in that context.

So it's really fascinating piece. I love that. Yeah, it's great. It's a solid piece. Yeah. So yeah, that's me. Bitcoin Audible. Awesome.

And to round it out, we will go to, as coined by the chat, that abnormal guy wearing a mask, L-O-L. Take it away. You can keep it simple, Bitcoin.com. All the guides are there. at Kiss Bitcoin on Twitter. Thanks for having me. I love having these conversations.

And if anybody has any requests on guides, just hit me up on Twitter. Email me, whatever you want. If you need any help, hit me up. Just here to be of service. Thanks, guys. I'll vote for the mask in saying that he's the only guy on stage who has actual opsec. The rest of us are super.

screwed during this fourth turning. So he's the one that's best off out of all of us. Anyways, guys, thank you so much. I'm going to cut your audio and video, but if you want to say quick goodbye afterwards, you can stick around. And everybody watching, thank you so much for being here.

Again, always the best part of my Friday, but please do hit like, subscribe, and share all of those things, help get this content out to even more people and I love having you here. Thanks for everybody being in the chat. If you want to help with the show in another way, you can hit up the sponsors I mentioned previously down below.

That was Ledden, Cobo, BitRefill, and the guys over at PrivacyPros.io for the Bill Fottle to back up your wallets. And if you really liked what you saw, we were talking all about lightning today, you can always drop me a Bitcoin Lightning Network tip or you can drop me some birthday sats, if you so choose. at my tippin.me page, that is t-i-p-p-in.me-slash at BTC sessions. With that, I am out.

Have yourselves a wonderful day, a wonderful evening, wherever you may be, and I'll see you guys next time for your daily session. Toddled at Bitcoin.