BTC Sessions - Why Bitcoin's 50% Crash is the Opportunity of a Lifetime | Bitcoin Boomers

Episode Date: February 28, 2026

Bitcoin Boomers Ep. 05: "Once in a Lifetime Opportunity" - Surviving Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown & Why It's Not Too Late | Lawrence Lepard, Bob Burnett, Gary LelandIs Bitcoin dead after crashing 50% from $125K highs to $67K in early 2026? In this explosive solo episode of Bitcoin Boomers, hosts Lawrence Lepard, Bob Burnett, and Gary Leland—veteran Bitcoiners with decades of market cycles under their belts—break down the FUD, volatility, and massive upside ahead. Larry declares Bitcoin a "once in a lifetime opportunity to build enormous wealth," emphasizing how drawdowns like this are normal for a volatile commodity outpacing gold and silver. Bob exposes mining realities setting a $50K-55K price floor, while Gary shares real-talk from Bitcoin meetups: seasoned HODLers aren't panicking—they're buying the dip. They dismantle media myths like Bitcoin for criminals (spoiler: it's traceable AF), ETF impacts on trading behavior, and why new investors chase highs and sell lows. Amid global economic shifts, fourth turning predictions, and governance debates, they orange-pill boomers: understand cycles, dollar-cost average, and HODL through the noise. With AI needing Bitcoin as its currency and hyperinflation looming from endless printing, this is your blueprint to escape fiat's collapse. Stack sats now—Bitcoin's asymmetry could turn $67K into $1M+ by 2032. Don't miss insights on quantum FUD, network effects, and why Bitcoin's not broken, just misunderstood.Key Topics:Bitcoin's media reputation & criminal use mythsMarket sentiment, volatility, and 50-70% drawdownsBitcoin as a commodity: Production costs & price floorsInvestor psychology: Fear, greed, and chasing highsETFs, trading pitfalls, and new investor challengesGovernance evolution & future protocol changesCommunity resilience at meetups and conferencesFourth turning: Economic reforms & Bitcoin's roleAsymmetric returns & long-term HODL strategiesMining updates, hash rate trends, & AI pivotsChapters:00:00:00 Cold Open – Opportunity & Drawdowns00:00:44 Nancy Guthrie & Bitcoin Reputation Myths00:06:11 Finding Experts Amid Media Noise00:10:15 Institutional Bitcoin Wake-Up Calls00:12:14 Traceability & Criminal Use FUD00:15:44 Volatility & Investor Psychology00:19:11 Valuation Models & Price Floors00:24:05 Liquidity & Future Surges00:27:27 Human Nature in Investing00:30:03 Quantum FUD & Governance00:35:48 Hash Rate & AI Pivots00:39:51 Commodity Challenges00:42:22 Mining Cycles & Timing00:49:34 HODLing Strategies00:52:47 Community Sentiment00:57:09 ETF Impacts & Trading Pitfalls01:01:08 Cycle Dampening01:05:36 Halving & Network Usage01:09:07 Quantum Resistance & BIP-11001:12:52 Global Shifts & Hope01:16:24 Orange-Pilling Boomers01:20:14 Power, Trust & Reforms01:27:10 Bit Block Boom PreviewSupported By:Blockstream Jade: Easy, open-source Bitcoin-only cold storage. Get 10% off with code BOOMERS at blockstream.com.Unchained Signature: Premium custody for serious holders. 10% off first year with code BOOMERS10 at unchained.com/btcboomersAbundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at abundantmines.comBITCOIN WELL is the best place to buy Bitcoin in Canada and the USA.Visit BITCOINWELL.COM/BTCSESSIONSBook Private Sessions: Master Bitcoin with experts at btcmentor.io. Hosts:Lawrence Lepard (@LawrenceLepard): Author of "The Big Print" Bob Burnett (@boomer_btc): Founder/CEO of Barefoot MiningGary Leland (@GaryLeland): Founder of Bit Block Boom Bitcoin Conference.Check Out the Previous Episode w/ John Heubusch: https://youtu.be/OlNUwAvlI-4#bitcoin #bitcoinboomers #bitcoinvolatility #bitcoininvestment #marketcrash #drawdown #bitcoinmining #hodl #fourthturning #bitcoinfud #bitcoinprice #etfbitcoin #commoditytrading #bitcoincommunity #garyleland #lawrencelepard #bobburnett #btc #bitcoinadoption #bitcoinrevolution #fiatcollapse #soundmoney #hyperinflation #bitcoin2026

This is a once in a lifetime, once in the generation opportunity to build enormous wealth. And those of us who deeply understand it, you know, feel that and are convicted about that in our bones, that we're going to end up with all the marbles and be incredibly rich. It's going to be gross. There's no pre-lunt in the world. You want that reward? You know, you've got to handle 50 to 70% drawdowns. These are very successful folks, and they're older.

They've seen the cycles. Now I've got a 50% drawdown. Maybe now is the time. Every time we see Bitcoin come out of bear market and go into a bull market, we see all these people on YouTube who are experts and we go, what the hell is that? And then when Bitcoin goes in the toilet, all their shows are gone. Welcome to episode five of the Bitcoin boomers. I'm Bob Burnett. I'm here with my buddy's Gary Leland and Larry Lepard.

And this is our fifth episode, guys. And yeah, so we're starting to put together a little portfolio here. here and our first solo one though. So we'll see if we can keep people entertained. And there's a lot of things to talk about. We've got the Nancy Guthrie story, which Bitcoin has woven into. We've got certainly the price to talk about. Gary's got his Bitcoin BitBob boom conference coming up soon that we'll all be at.

And of course, some things happening in the mining world that are probably things that some people might want to hear about. So, so anyway, like this, maybe get started on the Nancy Guthrie thing. Anybody want to start there? Any interesting thoughts about Nancy? This seems like, and this is a terrible situation, so don't get me wrong. I mean, I would die at that, my mom and she was alive. But taken off on this, so much FOMO has been created about how Bitcoin is being used by criminals and the cartels.

And haven't we heard this like since Bitcoin was created? You know, and isn't it the most trackable thing there is? I mean, when you really get down to it, I mean, I don't know where that's coming from. I was watching a clip Melcent. And it had these, I guess, experts on, I don't know, those NBC, CNN or whatever. And one of the experts said, they asked me, said, well, I really don't know much about Bitcoin, but I think all cartels use it. And I'm going, why would they have them on there if they're immediately? they don't know much about Bitcoin as the export.

It seems like they're just pulling out all this stuff to like make us scared for some reason without doing any research. I mean, am I alone in my feelings on that? That this is the same old song and dance and, you know, that we hear every three or four years about Bitcoin. Yeah.

It's unclear. I mean, whether it's a conspiracy or whether it's just stupidity on their part, it's kind of a toss-up, right? It's unfortunate, though. I mean, you know, it does, you know, revisit or revive the, you know, Bitcoin is used by criminals argument, but, you know, guess what? Cash is used by criminals too.

You know, the drug drug, yeah, they're shipping bricks of cash around and bricks of cocaine, you know. I don't know. To me, it's what a tragic and unfortunate situation and also unfortunate that Bitcoin gets mentioned. On the other hand, you could argue there's a stricent effect, you know, any publicity is good publicity. Yeah. I want to move a lot of money and you want to have something that everybody knows what it is these days. Well, Bitcoin's actually beginning to qualify.

So I don't know. The whole thing is just tragic. Kind of like Peky Bailey said, just say anything you want about me, but give my name right. Spell my name. Exactly. Well, you know, Gary, you were talking about the interview that you saw and you said one of the quote unquote experts said something to the effect of, I think. and, you know, experts typically don't say, I think, they say I know. And so, and I think that's, you know, one of the problems with Bitcoin is determining who the experts are is difficult, especially for somebody that's completely outside of it.

And, you know, we haven't established who those people are. I just saw as well in a similar note, Trump announced a new panel kind of overseeing crypto and like online prediction markets. And they had people like the CEO of Fandul on there, which is predictable. But there wasn't a single, there was 25 people. not a single Bitcoin person on there,

but we had the CEO of Ripple Brad Garlinghouse and the head of the Salana Foundation, the head of the Chainlink group, Brian Armstrong from Coinbase. Now, some of those people obviously do know some things about Bitcoin, but they all have an agenda. basically though you have you have 25 people in this group and the most significant asset doesn't have a representative you know no max is on a list yeah but I mean the reason I bring it up

though is just you know because of this I don't even think the media knows who to reach out to because like going way back to my PC days when when there were times when for whatever reason the personal computer would would come into, you know, mainstream thought. And, you know, they would seek out CEOs and executives from Dell and Gateway and IBM and places like that. And I'd occasionally find myself on CNN or, you know, something like that if it, if I was the best person from the company. But for Bitcoin, um, we don't have a CEO. Uh, we, we don't have a PR department. Uh, and, and maybe that's a problem sometimes. Um, that's probably why company is like, that's where my thing.

like XRP have grown so fast. I mean, you know, you have a big advertising budget, I'm sure. Yeah, it's unfortunate. I mean, shit coins have been a, you know, a bane of our existence for a long, one time, and they continue to hang around the rim, right?

Yeah. Well, you know, speaking on this, Bob, in the subject, I was at the Dallas Bitcoin meetup last night, and I rarely go to meetups. I think that's the second one I've been to since BitBlock, boom, locally. I just, I just stopped

going for some reason. But I met a gal there who had sold her gold like three months ago and bought Bitcoin at the high. And she's been, God, what an idiot I am. What an Indian. And I'm, you know, just trying to give a little real reassurance saying, you know, while you might feel like an idiot now in five years, I'm sure you'll feel like a genius. But she was going, I don't know who to listen to. I see all these shows that tell me everybody's saying Bitcoin's goal was going to go to 180 because they got a lot of Bitcoin. I said, well, those particular people probably have sold their Bitcoin men. I have to worry about them.

And I was trying to tell her, and this is true. I guarantee both of you are going to agree with me. Every time we see Bitcoin come out of bear market and go into a bull market, we see all these people on YouTube who are experts, and we go, what the hell is that? Because I feel like I know most people, not necessarily in person, but I know who they are. I'm going, who is this export, like Thai or whatever, a few years ago? came on. And then when Bitcoin goes in the toilet, all their

shows are gone. You know, and they just disappear. And then magically three years later, four years later, well, here's all these new experts that no one knows. I mean, am I wrong on that? Sounds right. Yeah. So,

if you're new and you come in when all those experts are on there, you don't know who to listen to and you may listen to those experts, you know, so-called experts that are experts until Bitcoin drops and bribes. You know,

and their numbers aren't there anymore for followers. Yeah, I think, you know, classically, I think what happens to, is I think a lot of media gravitates to people

that have a financial angle. Like they're used, they kind of categorize this in that space. And I've run into it a million times, you know, arguments in Twitter or in person, um, with somebody who's a financial,

advisor or a wealth advisor and thinks that they are the classic Dunning Kruger curve people you know standing on the top of Mount stupid you know thinking that that they have steal that I like that you know thinking they have a comprehensive view of Bitcoin in that it's a scam or it's a posy or it's a speculative asset and they throw this sort of banter around without really any true knowledge of, you know, what it is. I don't know anything about it, but you're wrong, right? Yes. Yeah, well, actually, no, no, I know everything there is that's pertinent about it.

It's so wrong. Yeah. And, yeah. When they don't really know everything, it's pertinent. Yeah, no, I mean, we say they don't know anything about it. Yeah. And I still think this is the use case, I think. Yeah.

Well, there is no use case. There is no intrinsic value. There is no cash flow. There's like these are the things that they will, you know, because they can't spend it anywhere. Well, yeah. And they don't, they don't know how to evaluate it in measurement. They don't have the technical chops to do it. Although I will say it's changing somewhat that I may have shared this story before,

sorry for repeating it, but I have a good friend who's an executive at Morgan Stanley. And he reached out to me probably six, eight weeks ago now. And after five years, you know, he came to me and said, hey, we're all in now. And he made a request to me that I was kind of surprised by. He said, hey, he oversees a really large team. He said he's got like 300 people. And he said, I want you to create a Bitcoin, exam for me, a quiz for me.

I said, I want five questions. I said, I don't want them super hard, but I don't want them to be exactly layups either. And I want to give it to my team so that they realize they're not ready and they have to pour in the work, you know. So I did five questions and a couple of them were harder than others, but one of them was simple like, you know,

what is the supply of Bitcoin? But basically said, they're four. Tell us off. I can look it up as we as we talk. I don't remember them all. I just was curious. So most of them didn't know the supply. But, you know, they were getting like one of five right.

Like nobody, nobody did well. And, and, and, but, but they, I'm saying he speaks for Morgan Stanley in this case. There's a recognition that they're behind. that they don't know and they have to know. So that was the purpose of the of the quiz was to get them to do that. But it, you know, it's going to take time. I think that, you know, on this Nancy Guthrie story,

I guess kind of where we started too, you should probably explain to people why this may not be a great strategy, right? That, you know, if, let's say I send Gary $6 million of Bitcoin right now and we do it as a Bitcoin, as a Bitcoin transaction. Well, nobody, I'm not doing a good job articulating this for some reason. But anyway, I send the Bitcoin to Gary to his address.

Well, we can do an example. Send me some now. Yeah, okay. Let's do it live. I send, yeah, I send Gary some Bitcoin. Now, Gary, Gary wants to do something with it at some point. So he buys something from Larry.

And let's even say it's still on the Bitcoin. It's all purely Bitcoin transactions. But now Larry and Gary are connected. At some point, Larry does something with it. Well, at some point, it reaches somebody who maybe wants to be on an exchange and they want to turn it into dollars or something more tangible.

Well, they can start reversing that chain and start tracing back. But they don't necessarily have to go that far. I'll believe Bob. I can send it to Larry. And maybe Larry has sent Bitcoin from his wallet to Coinbase. Yeah. And so now that wallet's basically Larry's wallet. And they go, oh, Larry got some of that Bitcoin from the gutteries.

And they go visit Larry. Yeah. And go, who sent you this Bitcoin? Yeah. So I think the FBI and the CIA have stated, they, They love Bitcoin because it's trace. And even after years, you know, y'all remember that story about that, I can't remember the exact details.

That guy and his girlfriend, they stole a bunch of Bitcoin, millions of dollars with a Bitcoin. And then years later, six years, seven years later or something, they spent some. And they nailed them, took all their Bitcoin, and they went to prison. So, I mean, it's, and they waited a long time to do that. Yeah, I think, was that like a Canadian exchange or something like that? Yes, I think so. I think so, yeah.

Yeah. So there's a trail there they can follow of the Bitcoin, and you have to get it out sooner or later. You're going to spend, or you just got $6 million going, I got $6 million here. I can't spend any of it. So somewhere is going to come back to you. But that's a terrible situation for sure, though.

But it's not this thing that criminals. You know, also a thing I saw that the guy was, I saw this. I can't remember what channel it was. They were talking about the situation. And evidently, they sent, someone sent money to the wallet, or Bitcoin to the wallet, like a few hundred dollars. And they were talking on their show about these people that knew so much about Bitcoin, how they thought that was some kind of test that the FBI did because they have special tools that we don't know about. That by sending that $600, they can go ahead and probably find out who owned the wallet. You know, and as you and I, as we all know, if they're going to ask for $6 million, they probably got a wallet that's not connected to anything. Right. I mean, you know, unless they were just checking to see if they were stupid, you know, because it could always luck up and they were just stupid. You know, so I thought that was interesting how they knew about these secret tools the FBI had for figuring out whose wallet that was. Yeah.

The records are immutable. So that's one of the issues that goes with it. Why don't we shift over to talking about the price? I don't know about you guys, but I've been getting a lot of nervous people that are newer in the space coming to me, you know, looking at the price action and wondering if the thesis is broken or they've made a mistake or, you get older ones like my wife. Yeah. Yeah, all the above. Yeah, I've had a little of that too. All the above.

And I don't know. You know, I guess maybe because I've been around it since 13 or 14 and since I watched it go. from 17, nine, and then three or four, and then, you know, we watch you go from 65 to 15 and all this stuff. I mean, I'm pretty sanguine about the price. And it kind of reminds me, you know, it's, as Sailor says, it's digital capital. It's a very volatile asset. And you have to be willing to hold it off with 10 year time frame. And I've always told people who are looking to get into it, you know, they ask how much do I buy. So you got to be, no matter how much you you've got to be willing to endure 50% drawdown.

Actually, probably a tad more than that. You know, as we both all know, they've had, you know, we've got 90, 80, 70, 70, 70, 70, you know, 60% drawdowns in the past. This drawdown right now, we're kind of 50% down from the high in October. You know, my sense is we could go 60% down. I don't think we're going to go 70 down. We'll talk about why in a minute.

But the, you know, to me, what's going on here is just classic, you know, fear and greed investor behavior that's, old as time. I mean, this is, this is Buffett's, you know, Mr. Market is, he's a manic depressive. And, you know, at 125 people chasing Bitcoin, it's going to 250 and at 67, you know, nobody wants it and it's going to zero. And, you know, there's a, there's a good study that I tried to get a copy of it, but it turns out it was pre-chat GPT. Chat ChivetT refers to it, but they can't show me the original study. But I remember they summarize it. And the study is, back in the in the 70s and 80s

there was a guy named Peter Lynch who ran the Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 Magellan had a 29% compound annual rate of return which truly puts him in Buffett-like stock picking categories it was a fabulous fund I mean anyone who put money in it early and hung on to it

just made a fortune and Fidelity actually went back and studied all their customers and holders of the Fidelity Fidelity or Magellan Fund, and they found that 50% of the people who at one point held the Magellan Fund did not make any money. They made zero money. And the average return for the average person who invested in the Magellan Fund was 7%. So let's just think about how that happened.

The ones who didn't make any money, they chased the Magellan Fund when it was doing well, they were like, this is great, this is great, I got to buy it. And they were chasing the high. And they went to turn down, they're like, oh, my God, I made them a mistake. I got to sell it, right? And everybody, it turns out, did some, or not everybody. On average, most people did some version of that, because if you had bought it in the beginning and held it to the end,

your compound IRA would have been 29%. But, you know, the average they found of all their customers over all those years was 7%. And so I guess what I'm trying to say is that human nature, you know, almost wires us to make investment mistakes, which is to say we chase price and we throw up on deep value. And this is how great investing fortunes have been made, you know, for decades and centuries, which is, you know, the blood is running in the streets.

You buy deep value and you sell overvaluation. I'm not suggesting you ever sell Bitcoin, but I'm pointing out that, you know, there are these metrics that we use to determine what is great value and what's not great value. And right now, Bitcoin is in that great value zone. I retweeted it this morning, it's James Czech's work. and it fits with a Tipmeyer multiple that right now, comparing the Bitcoin price to the 200-day moving average, where it either 6% or 10%, depending upon whose numbers you use, it's only been this cheap 6% to 10% of the time.

In other words, 90% of the time, it's been more expensive than it is right now. The other model I use is I use this power law model, which Giovanni and Kruger have worked up, which shows that they've drawn a curve line, log of time, log of price, that shows the price of Bitcoin over, you know, its entire life. And they've managed to fit this curve to the data, 96% R squared, which anyone who's familiar with statistics knows, that's good correlation. Having said that, it also varies a lot around the means of volatile asset.

And, you know, through all of its cycles, sometimes it trades at two standard deviations above the power law number. It's cheapest it goes to half, one half a standard deviation below the power law number. It's never broken that. Right now, the power law means says it should be trading at about 120, 130, somewhere in there. And half of that, half a standard deviation below that is 50 to 55. And so we're almost there.

So, you know, on both those measures, Bitcoin is extraordinarily cheap. I've been buying it. I've been selling gold and silver things to buy it. And I've been buying micro strategy as well, you know, in size, actually, in both of those buys. Just because gold and silver have taken off. And to me, what they're saying is, you know, the big prince coming, the Fed's going to have to, you know, debase the currency. And I think it's interesting to pick this guy at war shoes, a hawk. I mean, it's a perfect, it's a brilliant political move.

Pick a hawk to do something really duffish. And they got him to buy in on he's going to have to be duffish. But because he's a hawk, he'll be able to sell it, right? And so that's coming and gold and silver smell it. And Bitcoin's just on this lag program like it was in 2020. You know, I've said this in another positive. I'll say it again. I mean, in 2020, I remember it very well because I own both Bitcoin and a lot of gold and silver, as most people know.

And in 2020, when Powell pivoted and then, you know, gold took off, it went up 50%. And from, I don't know, I think it was 1,200, around 2000 back at the time. And all this, and gold stocks went up a lot. I funded well. We were all feeling great. And Bitcoin was just bumping along between five and nine, kind of averaging seven. And then suddenly, and then all the liquidity hit. you know, Powell grew the ballot sheet from, you know,

$3 trillion up to something trillion to, you know, $9 trillion. And it's just crazy. And it all came flowing into the system that summer. In October, Bitcoin went from 10 to 60. X. You know, it took like six months. It was really quick. Blockstream Jade is your easy to use Bitcoin-only cold storage solution

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We're going to go from 50 or 60 or 70 to 240 or 300 or some big numbers. Well, they're going to print a lot this year. I mean, they're already started, yeah, they started printing. I mean, they pivoted, right? They were tightening, then they stopped. You know, now they've got this reserve management program. which I think is, that's hilarious. It's just rebranding Q80, right?

They're saying, well, the banks need some reserves, so we're going to inject $40 billion a month then. Of course, that's going to have to grow. And that's just a mathematical fact. That's not some opinion. That's just mathematically proven that they will have to grow the money supply or the bank reserves.

Did you say $40 billion a month? Yeah, they're doing $40 billion a month, which is $4.80 a year, which Lynn is called the gradual print, playing off my book. And I'm like, yeah, and I responded to wrong tour. I said, yeah, Lynn, but gradual can become big. That's what it's going to happen.

So I don't know. I guess the point I'm trying to make, because I think there are a lot of people. I had a call yesterday from a really good guy, very smart investor, but he's just kind of like, Jesus, I'm really heavily into this Bitcoin, and I'm getting scared. And I was just kind of like, no. But he's newer. I mean, he hasn't been around it for 10 years.

He's going through a couple of these. Yeah. And I just said, I said, you got to relax, man. It's all good. I mean. You know, I think for some. Some people, Larry. I mean, we'll shoot the money in three months.

You're fine. I mean, it's like, give this thing some time, right? I think for some people, Larry, like, I'm going to use my wife as an example. I use her as an example a lot. She hates it when I do that. But it's not the drawdown percentage because she's seen this, but doesn't really remember it. You know, wasn't this big a deal. She looks at the total dollar amounts.

And the dollar amount now is a big number, right? Yeah. And she's like, oh, my. I said, well, what are you going to do when it hits 350,000 and drops to 180? And, you know, it's going to be a lot bigger number, you know. So that's the thing. I mean, it's, and obviously it's easy for us to say that because our average cost bases are much lower. Although I was buying it at 65, and I even bought some in 100.

I didn't pay $125. But the point is it, yeah, I mean, it's, look, it's higher highs and higher lows. I mean, that's the pattern. It's going to continue. Yeah, I think if you, I have this chart somewhere, if you look at, the volatility, the volatility itself does appear to be dampening on a percentage basis. So if we look at the big drawdowns like you referred to, Larry, the 90%, 80%, 70%, those were fairly early in Bitcoin's history. The post-2020 era is all like 50-ish, you know, give or take a few. So we're starting to see that

that gap dampen. Now, it's still big and as Gary pointed out, the dollar value difference can be shocking. Oh, Bitcoin's down $8,000 today or something like that. We've had a $10,000.

It only matters if you have to sell, though. If you don't have to sell it. Absolutely. And you understand what you hold. It just doesn't matter. You know? Yeah, your tail there reminds me Larry of that meme that's going around the cartoon and it shows two desks of people selling Bitcoin. Yeah, right.

And one desk has 135,000. And there's just people all around it in line to buy it. And the next to the right shows 60,000. And there's one guy. Yeah, you know, in line buying Bitcoin. Well, and that's, and it's just, it's crazy. It's human nature. You know, we're, I guess, you know, we're hardwired to herd, right?

I mean, and there was, there's a reason for that, probably back in the ancient days, you know, some animals coming to each, and it's like, people start running. Everyone doesn't even know why they're running, but they're like, shit, they're running, I better run too. Get on the track. Yeah. And so, you know, it's going crazy and, you know, greed takes over. And, oh, my God, I got to, you know, I got to chase it.

Well, then the opposite emotion is, you know, it's going to zero and Bitcoin's dead. And, you know, I mean, we've had, we've heard a hundred times. Yeah, we've had no end of the fut stories. I mean, they've been terrible. I mean, you know, in fact, there's. There's a good pod I just listened to it. You know, the quantum fud, Preston and some others run, I think Jack Booth was on the way.

The quantum fud was just outrageous. I mean, I just, Bob, I'm sure you agree with me on that. I mean, you know, every, I mean, there's a little bit more substance to the governance fud, you know, the operative stuff and the, and the core people not really understanding that it's money. But actually, I think we had a really good development this past week on that where, or I guess it was last week when the, on the strategy call, Michael said, you know, we're going to try and take a leadership role in, you know, the governance of core and

contributing to what the proper way is to evolve this protocol over time because we've got such a big stake in it. And frankly, it's going to take that. It's going to take the Black Rocks and the strategies of the world to say, hey, this is a really important asset. We're going to protect it. And so to the degree that changes are made in it on a go-forward basis, we're going to weigh in on it. And honestly, you know, strategies got more to lose than anybody else if it doesn't work. So I'm willing And Michael seems to be an honest actor And a very smart guy You know

I think it's a huge positive But he's weighed in on this and said You know we're gonna stand up and take a leadership role in this area So and then to me A lot of people who are scared of that too though I know they are but they shouldn't be I mean And I think he's a stand-up guy too Yeah

And to me You know that's that was really the only That's the one piece of fud that I could see You know central banks and and sovereign wealth funds still being concerned about, you know, who really governs this thing. But I think that, well, like that piece, just like every other piece has been dealt with over time, I think that piece will be dealt with too, you know, the things we fear, you know, block size stuff, all the other stuff.

I mean, there's been, there's been a lot of fun along the way and it just kind of tends to get resolved, you know. You know, another thing on that, Larry, is I think Jimmy Buff, Warren Buffett, I saw, Jimmy but I saw Warren Buffett say one time, the hardest thing investors do have trouble doing is doing nothing. Well, that's true too. And that's the hardest thing that they can do is nothing and they just can't do it. Yeah.

Yeah, it's your motions are your enemy in investing. And the older you get, the more cycles you see, the more you realize that. And that's where us older Bitcoiners can maybe provide some. comfort and just perspective to some of these younger people who, you know, I get it. They've got a lot in it. They've really made a bet on it. They believe in it. But they're looking at it now and say, hey, hang on a second.

It's this broken. My answer is no, not at all. I mean, which is not to say, by the way, that it couldn't dip down. I think that Mel and I were talking about this pre-show. Now, one of the issues of where the price goes is the macro landscape. I mean, and so, you know, if. if we get something that breaks and we get a correlation of one event like COVID, March 1 or, you know, Lehman in 2008, now, guess what?

Everyone scrambles for cash and liquidity until the Fed provides it. And everything goes down, you know, a lot. And so, you know, I don't know what the bottom on Bitcoin in that event would be. There probably is no bottom, but my sense is I'd be very surprised if it went below 50. And so, you know, if you're looking at today, to buy it at 67 with the downside of, you know, 50, it was an upside of, you know, kind of 250 to 400 the next three or four years. It seems to me like an incredibly asymmetric bet. Yeah, I think I want to come back to the FUD and the governance.

Yeah, that's your area. Yeah, but before we do that, I want to, I think you should flush out the price thing just a little bit more. one of the things that I look at, my optics are different than probably a lot of people. I'm not a trader, I'm not a speculator, but what I am is a producer because I've run a mining company. And I think if you zoom out and you look at a longer-term lens, one of the key factors in establishing price is cost. that's true in most markets, right? The cost of something dictates the price that related. Bitcoin's at a weird point in its maturity where it's a commodity.

By the that's the first thing that's, I think, probably people don't think about enough is the fact that Bitcoin is a commodity. And the companies like mine that are mining companies, we are commodity producers. I think it's, by the way, one of the reasons that the public mining companies have been grossly misvalued is they've been valued as tech and growth companies, not as commodity producers. And then they've been evaluated as technology and growth companies instead of commodity producers, because commodity producers should be valued based on their efficiency, their productivity, like those. Those are their factors. Tech and growth, tech companies are evaluated more on growth.

And so we could go into that rabbit hole a little deeper sometime. But so what happens is right now is we have an average cost of production, my models, but a few other people have similar ones. That would somewhere be in the mid-80s to high 80s. So if you take all the mining in the world, that's what that's what the average is. The worst ones are in the low six figures. And those tend to be the bigger public companies. And by the way, one other thing, when I talk about cost,

I am not talking about the cost of electricity. There's a lot of people that think that that's all that it takes. And so they constantly look at that. But there's massive depreciation. We have labor. We have insurance. We have facility costs. We have all these other things that are part of that.

Now the, so if we, we have the worst in the world, let's just call it in the low one hundreds, the average at 88, the best in the world are right in that 50 to 55,000 dollar range per Bitcoin produced. Which interestingly is the same number that Larry just said, you know, he views as the kind of the floor, right? I mean, the power law was another half a standard deviation down, and there's different ways at which you arrived at that number. But I think it's a very important number to keep in mind that, that, and Larry, you may have some perspective on this when you look at like gold and silver and how it is, whether it is properly valued or not. But that's the way I look at the world, and I view these.

costs of production as kind of setting a floor in the longer term on any given day. I have a question for you, Bob, too, that have you observed and, well, you watch hash carefully. And I was surprised to hear you say there were people who are 100, 120K to mine a coin. Have you observed anybody taking stuff offline? And is the growth in hash slowed as a result of what you're describing? Yes. I've said we can't know why hash comes offline.

Right. But I just looked at it yesterday. We haven't moved. Global hash rate is where it was six months ago. So we, you know, it went up and it came down, but it's, you know, we've essentially had no movement in global hash rate. I was actually growing pretty consistently, right? Growing meteorically. And, you know, I've said on that.

what I've said, and by the this has been for a couple years, it's been growing unnaturally. I think a lot of people look at it. Oh, look at the growth of the hash rate and isn't it great and the network's more secure? Well, not exactly. There's on the surface, yes. But what can happen is because the public companies have massive pocketbooks now. because they've been kind of following a bit of the sailor strategy to a certain degree. What they've learned was if they deploy $100 million into new capital to expand operations, they've been getting a market cap lift of, let's just say, 200 to keep it simple. And so even though they're bleeding cash operationally, they've been able to sell shares,

show the Bitcoin balance sheet growing. Right. And in my opinion, not giving financial, people are kind of falling for it. And they, you know, now they might get bailed out

out of, I would say, sheer luck because those same companies are pivoting to AI. Interesting. And what they did build, to their credit,

I'm not saying they didn't do anything, of value. Power centers have value, right? Yeah, and now they've been able to redeploy the asset into something that may throw them a lifeline. But I think what we're, I think what we're seeing,

and anecdotally through my context, and I think we're seeing a lot of energy that was directed toward mining as those machines are coming offline. they're getting old and instead of replacing them with more mining equipment, that energy is going to AI. And so I should point out, usually we see stronger growth in the winter months than we do in the summer months in hash rate. And we've had nothing this whole winter. So I think we have had some weather issues that have forced some equipment offline.

We have had some obviously this AI issue. and people pivoting. But I think this will be very healthy for Bitcoin in the long run to see hash rate slow for quite a while. Because if we continued in a world where the least efficient operators continued to be those that survived, eventually what that does is it forces out even the smaller private efficient operators.

And I think that would be bad for Bitcoin, you know, that if in the end all you had was a handful of really big companies that don't have any operational excellence that lose money continually, and that just seems like a house of cards to me. It's also a very centralizing force, too, that, you know, if only the big guys live out of sheer size, then that's very centralizing. So that, you know, I'm excited about that. I had asked you earlier, Larry, though, about kind of what do you see in the gold and silver world? Like, you know, cost of production and is, are there any analogies or no? Well, there are. I mean, it's, and there were times, you know, that they're big long cycles there. And the cost of mine an ounce is always, you know, the cost of sell an ounce versus the cost of mine amounts is obviously what determines the profitability.

And, you know, you saw back in the, you know, it went to 800 an ounce in the, you know, in the 70s when we had all that inflation. And then it drained itself from 800 an ounce down to 250 or 300 an ounce in 2000. So that was a 20-year decline, kind of a steady decline. And, you know, at 800 an ounce, they had added, they were adding capacity like crazy because it made sense to. And what you saw was just a general attrition of the higher cost. mines through that 20-year period. And now it's funny because I actually see companies going back and they're looking at companies and saying, well, this was a profitable company or profitable mine back in

1985, but they had to shut down in 1990 when the price dropped to 300 bucks or something. Yeah. And the issue and it's a little different than your industry, Bob, is that, you know, you can probably spin up a new Bitcoin miner in, you know, three, six, certainly a year, if it takes you to time to get the power, you know, mining minerals is a, is a, you know, three to 10 year cycle to open up a new mine. And so, you know, so they tend to not shut them down casually and reopening them as expensive too. So, but what's what you're seeing going on right now, and it's interesting because a lot of the Bitcoin say, well, gold prices

high, you know, we're going to get a huge supply of gold. Well, yes, over two decades, the growth will occur. But because it takes three to 10 years to spin up a new mine, it doesn't happen quickly. So Bitcoin is very interesting in that as a miner, for the most part, you can turn off instantly.

So if we woke up tomorrow morning and Bitcoin was at $25,000, we could see the network, half of it turn off in a day. But on the other side, if Bitcoin, if we woke up tomorrow morning and Bitcoin's at $2,000,

thousand, you would see almost no lift, right? Hash rate would be the same. Now, miners would become ungodly profitable very, very quickly because the operational costs don't change, but the cost to produce a Bitcoin would get dramatically cheaper. Eventually, there would be a lift. The question about was, how long is the lag between, well, it's it, you know? Yeah. So, so to your point, In fact, Larry's part of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, which we've done a few partnerships together. And once we did a small project, I think it was maybe about a half a megawatt project, if I remember right, in partnership with Larry's firm. And we did it in six weeks. So at that scale, we find an advantageous situation we can pounce, like, and we can go quickly.

And at a few megawatts, it may be a six-month project. but at 100 megawatts, it's an 18-month project, 12 to 18 months, let's say. So it has some of the same, probably not as dramatic as goal, but to materially react to the price requires, let's say, a year plus. And one of the problems is that by then the market could have changed dramatically, right? And we've seen that. that when when the late 2021 early 2020 a lot of money went into mining um new projects that didn't come online until late 2020 and they they they invested during the peak of a bull and came online in the middle of a deep bear ouch yeah yeah and Which, by the way, also means there's a secondary effect of a bull market typically, which is the cost of equipment goes way up.

So not only are you, you kind of overpay for the servers and the transformers and some of the key pieces of equipment. So ironically, just like buying Bitcoin itself, the time to invest capital into mining, not saying by mining stocks, I'm saying invest capital and mining is in the middle. of the bear. Like you got to have the balls to go put the money up. Knowing that everything was coming. Yeah. And then you'll be online when it happens. So, Bob, you mentioned earlier on, you know, that Bitcoin's a commodity. And I think that's an important thing for people to understand because investing in commodities is very, very hard. And there have been great fortunes made in commodities. You guys like Robert Friedland, you get in copper. And they've been great fortunes lost in commodities, the Hunt brothers

and others. And because they're very volatile. And, you know, know, Grantham, Germany Grantham Mayor Van Otto, one of the best value investment shops in the world. He said there's been, you know, the commodity investing is an area where you can get incredibly rich, but it's very, almost nobody can do it because you have to be willing to play five and 10 year cycles and be willing to hold through the cycle. And there's enormous career risk for a professional money manager in doing that because you're evaluated on your annual performance. And, and that's why, you know, I've been managing gold stock funds since 2008 and, you know, It's really brutally hard.

I mean, and when you're right, you just look incredibly right. I mean, my phone was up 175% last year. But, you know, full disclosure, there were other years when it's down 30 or 40%. So it's a very, it's a very rough ride. And that's the case with Bitcoin, too, because it's a commodity. It follows a commodity-like cycle.

And, you know, we all know. I mean, to me, to me probably the biggest, you know, the biggest thing that prevents Bitcoin from just becoming global money tomorrow is this volatility, this early stage adoption volatility, you know, and I know really smart monetary people who are like, yeah, I get why it's better money than everything else, but until the volatility dissipates, it's not going to be money.

And, you know, there's somewhat of a point to that, but, you know, it's emerging as money, and the volatility, as you pointed out earlier, Bob, is going down. And so, you know, it's both the cost and the opportunity of being where we are right now. I mean, you know, literally this is a once in a lifetime, once in a generation opportunity to build enormous wealth. And those of us who deeply understand it, you know, feel that and are convicted about that in our bones that we're going to end up with all the marbles and be incredibly rich.

It's going to be gross. But, you know, in turn, you know, there's no free lunch in the world. And so, you know, you want that reward. You know, you've got to handle 50 to 70% drawdines, right? And that's, you know, so it's just it's a mindset you've got to get your head around. And the average trad-fi investor just can't do that. Abundant Mines is an Oregon-based husband and wife own Bitcoin mining company, making Bitcoin mining accessible to investors of all ages and experience levels.

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then head to bTCmentor.io and book a call with us today. They get a 50 to 70% draw it on. They're like, screw it, I'm out of here. You know, I'm just not riding this wave. You know, and so that's why it's such a tough thing for people to get their heads around. And that's why, you know, there will be very few who will be able to hobble through it all. But those of us who do, you know, we've been rewarded thus far. and I think we'll continue to be rewarded.

And it's also why you're not too late. I mean, you know, people say, well, you know, it's $100,000. You know, I was too late. I was getting this six months ago. Oh, it's $100,000. You bought it cheaper. I can't buy it. Well, I finally convinced them to buy it.

And now it's at 60. And instead of looking at it and saying, hey, it's a 40% off sale. They're like, oh, shit, it's broken. I can't buy it now. Like, well, which, you know, you can't have it both ways, right? I mean, you know, okay, you want it to feel great. You know, 100, 120. You can buy it and buy it.

high and, you know, but, but it's, you know, eventually, eventually enough people are going to come to realize that this is really a case of you buy the dip on this asset. And, you know, and it gives you, you know, if you're wrong about it at any given point in time, it gives you an opportunity to, quote, unquote, get right about it on the next dip. But Larry, on that same note, those same, not those same people, but a lot of people will tell you that it's too high and they'll say things like, like it's 69 or whatever. I had several friends saying, oh, I think it's going to get down under 20 and I'm going to buy then. And it gets down to 17. And then I see him months later when it's going back up and said, well, did you get in it? You know, because it got down to 17, they go, no, I didn't,

I didn't do it. No, nobody ever does it. That's right. And that's why. But unfortunately, with 17 years of data now and a couple of really good models emerging, like this parallel model with a, you know, 96% R squared, you know, you can actually kind of come to understand how the Yes, it's going to behave. And, you know, as a financial investor, what I've always looked at is you want pattern recognition. And in my book, I laid it out, you know, you can see these drawdowns. You know what they are. You know how large they're going to be.

You know that they're coming. You know, and then you can look at the power law. I mean, I highly recommend people buy Fred Kruger's book, you know, Bitcoin 1 million. It lays it out clear as day, you know, and all the supporting arguments are brilliant. And, you know, what you can see, I mean, what I'm kind of modeled towards is in 2032, which is admittedly six years away, you know, the mean on this thing is about a million bucks a coin. So, you know, if I get, if I, if I buy a coin for a hundred grand, it's going to be a 10 bagger in six years, that works for me. And hey, it's even better. If I buy it for 67 grand, that's going to be a million in 10 years, you know, six years. That

works for me too. So, you know, I think, and this is the argument for dollar cross averaging, because we just never know where it's going. And I've also always been a proponent of that. So it's, look, it's a tough asset for people to get their heads around. But once you get your head around, it, you know, you'll just, you'll, you'll, you'll develop the conviction that I have and that you guys have and that Sailor has and that others have. And I think, you know, it's, it's, what is it the people say? It's time in the asset, not timing the purchase of the asset. You know, I mean, this thing's going to be worth a million in six or seven years. It's going to be worth 10 million in 20 years. And so, you know, if you buy a coin today, you're going to be really glad you did that, in my opinion, you know, but you got to wait in 20 years a long time. Gary, you were at a meetup. Yesterday, I think you said, right? Yeah, last night. I was buying that book. I'm sorry.

I was buying that Bitcoin 1 million. Okay. That's okay. What was the sentiment there? It was a smaller crowd than normal. I can tell you that. Usually I go there and there's like 60, 70 people there and there were maybe 35. So the crowd was down and they were surprised at the crowd being down.

But everybody there, except for one or two new people I met who just said. got in at the high, no one was worried. Yeah, they were going, oh, we've seen this several times, you know. So it's talking like us. They're a seasoned group, so, which could be indicative of a 35, right? Yeah, half of the normal audience. The other 30 were back at home crying. That's what I said.

I said to say their wives wouldn't let them come. Yeah, the wives wouldn't let them come. Get out of that shit. And they're embarrassed to come say I'm out of it now. But actually, most of the people there, and now that I'm thinking about it from that aspect, I knew almost everybody there. You know, so it was definitely seasoned people.

I think they were like four new people, five new people that I met, you know, that I didn't know already. So I don't know if that's a good indicator, you know, of anything on that group there. Well, I just, actually, I have, it's one of three data points that I wanted to kind of gather, And I think that's an interesting one. Another one, Larry and I are part of a group here in Naples, Florida.

I don't know. It's a bunch of older, primarily business executive leaders from the past. People like one of the guys the ex-CEO of Union Pacific and guys from J.I. Case and former guy from the CIA and I say like that sort of group. And Larry and I got several questions yesterday from the group. I don't think anybody was like super negative, but they were kind of questioning, right? I'm not sure how you would categorize that sentiment, Larry.

Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, it's very easy. I mean, they're doing what most people doing as, you know, oh gosh, it's not working. You said it was going to keep going higher and it's not going higher. And I said, yes, it will, but with volatility, you know, as a part of that journey. And so there's nothing fundamental about the thesis that's changed.

They're still debasing the currency. This is still digital gold. It's better than gold in a million ways. You can move it faster, store it. It's, verify it more completely. But, you know, it's going to take time. And I think that's one of the hard things Bitcoiners have had a hard time dealing with. It's just how well gold has done.

My view is that, you know, that's just a function of the fact that gold's been around longer. and when people, you know, come to the debasement trade conclusion, which I think more and more of the world is coming to, they go to the old tried and true, and central banks buy gold and they're not buying Bitcoin yet. But again, you know, you can look at that as a negative and be bothered by that, or you can look at as a positive, hey, gold is signaling that our stuff's about to work.

Furthermore, gosh, isn't this amazing? The market's giving us an opportunity if we don't have enough to buy some more at 40% off, or 50% off, actually, from the high. Yeah, people don't really don't get that all. No, they just don't. If they're new, I mean, you don't. All you know is you paid 134 and you're down half, you know, and that's a lot.

As you said, maybe because it's a commodity instead of a start. It's a volatile asset, and that's why it goes up a lot because it's a volatile accent. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's, yeah. So it is what it is. And, you know, I think the only way you can get to where we are is by time in it and an understanding of what it is. And, you know, there are a lot of good books on it.

You know, I've got one. Safe's got one. Lynn's got one. I mean, there are ways you can educate yourself about it. And you'll come to the conclusion I think we've come to, which is, you know, this is as good a place or probably the best place to store long-term wealth in a monetary and monetary debasement environment. Yeah, what are you going to do, keep it in, put it in the yacht and take it out?

I mean, yeah, that's the other thing. We're going to go. You know, where are you going to go? Well, you know, one of the reasons I brought up this group that Larry and I went to yesterday was, I think you had to leave a little earlier than I did, Larry. Yeah. Is at the end, I hung around probably till like two, Larry, just, by the way. And there were three or four guys.

So there are three people coming out of that meeting. And these are very high net worth people, we'll just say, you know, general, right? very high net worth people. I'm quite convinced that today, three of those people are buying their first Bitcoin. Interesting. And now I think two of them are buying an ETF and one of the guys probably going to Coinbase.

So, you know, those out there who are Bitcoin Max, these impurists, don't get upset. But these are new people entering the ecosystem with deep pockets. And, you know, they're probably going to, they're probably going to enter with, I know, maybe a, couple hundred thousand dollar kind of investment would be my guess like that would be how they

would they would enter but but the thing about these folks and remember these are very successful folks and they're they're older they've seen the cycles they view this downturn just like we were kind of talking about like hey this this maybe is the time this is my chance because i've been in this group for like six years and been telling them to buy and they never bought, they never bought, they never bought. Like, oh, now I got a 50% drawdown. Maybe now is the time. So I found... Actually, the new member that I bought, brought to the meeting, Bob, Wilma's his name, he actually said to me, said, you know, I'm going to buy some. And he's, he's carded my book, he knows that he believes in, all the kind of stuff. He was, he was one of the,

you know, God, 100, 125, God, you got it cheaper. I'm not going to chase it. And, and, you know, We were riding on the way home, and he kind of said, you know, gosh, if I want to get some of this, now is probably the time to do it, right? You know, it's 50% off the all-time high. And I said, yeah, I think it's going, you know, the long-term thesis hasn't changed. You know, because of all this fud, it's down 50%. And it's like you say, I mean, he's got a huge net worth and he's not going to spend a ton of money on it.

But he's going to buy, you know, buy probably $100,000 or, you know, buy something on it and get started. And then, you know, then he'll start watching it. You know, I mean, it's like, and another Bitcoiner is born, right? Yes. Yeah, you mentioned, Bob, one of them was going to buy Bitcoin at Coinbase, and the other two were probably going to do ETFs. And my question, you that brought up is, do you think part of our drop this time has been due to people buying ETFs?

And they feel like they're buying stocks, and they don't even know what they have. They have no idea what they have. They just know they own an ETF, and they see the price dropping, and they just sell so easy online, you know, just over. I'm getting out of that stock. You know, just like they would just stock. I can only, yeah, I mean, I'd just be speculating, but probably.

I think people viewing it as a stock, yes, I think that that's true. And I think we saw, you know, maybe the start of the fall down, not the latest drop, but the drop from the high in October, some profit-taking mentality that kind of started that when we were in the 120s, some people that had done really well. and are used to saying, oh, well, I just made 40% in the year, so I'm going to take some off the table. And I'm happy with 10. 10 would be fantastic, and I just made 40. Yeah. There's no doubt that there will be those who chase it and then sell it and trade it.

The thing that's tricky, and there's a very high profile analyst who, you know, looked at the technicals and suggested this call, and he made a good call that was going to go down. You know, the thing that's tricky with all that is it's a short-term gain. You've got to pay tax on it. And when are you going to get back in? You know, I mean, it's, okay, so great, you're a genius. You sold it for 95 or 100, or maybe you sold for 120. You know, are you going to have the guts to get back in at 67? Or are you going to hold up for 40 and never get it, get any more of it?

You know what I mean? Yeah. Because it's like it's, you know, the part about selling it when it runs is you got to think to you say, okay, fine, what am I going to use? When are I going to buy it back? How cheap does that have to get to buy it back? will I buy it back or will I be left behind? I mean, I had an investor in my fund who, you know, who sold it at, you know, at 90-something

and then it went to 125 and he was experiencing regret. Now, he didn't go by it at 125. And I'm trying to get him to now and buy it at, you know, 67. And I'm not sure if you will or not. I'd probably wait until it starts to turn. But, you know, it's also a levered asset with really rapid flows. And one of the things you'll learn if you read that Bitcoin 1 million book, Gary, is that from 2018 to 2024, you went up like 6x, something like that.

These are round numbers from memory, so I'm don't know perfectly right, but the idea is right. And if you miss like the best 20 days of that period, you're a flare. So, you know, this is the gob candle phenomena, right? I mean, it's a very volatile asset, and when it really runs, it runs hard. And so think about that. I mean, in a six-year period where it multiplied in value by 6x, if you missed the top days, you didn't get it. And so for that reason, you know, that's why I just don't trade it.

I don't think you're smart enough to know what it's going to do next. And if you're not there when it goes on a tear, you know, you missed it. And so it's hard to buy when it gets up again and you missed it. Well, that's exactly right. That's exactly right. You know, you sell it a hundred gross and 70. You're hoping it goes to 60. Well, what happens if it suddenly, you know,

Worf comes in and they do a big QE program? And the next thing you know, it's at 140. You know, and now you sold it at 100. You felt like a genius because they went to 70, but are you going to chase it at 140? I mean, it's... And I know a lot of people who've done that in the past, lower dollar amounts, of course.

Yeah. But they said, oh, I'm getting out of this. I'm genius. And then all of a sudden, it goes up to 135. And you're going, I sold five of them at 10. Yeah, it's so volatile and it trades like a wild animal. My view is just, you know that it's going up and to the right over four to, you know, as Salish says, if your time frame is four to ten years, it's going up into the right. So just buy it and sit on it, you know, just hottle it.

I mean, it's not, you know, it's not that hard to do. I mean, it is hard if you're, you know, if you're a trader to sit there and watch it go up and down. But if you're not, I mean, I just, I don't want, you know, I don't care what it does any given day. Yeah. Well, yeah, there's a. Anybody that's bought and held for four years hasn't lost money, that's still a true statement as of today. I think that'll continue to be a true statement. Yeah.

And I think that, by the way, that doesn't mean there's this whole thing about four-year cycles. I think the four-year cycle is dead. Actually, I don't think it ever existed, to my opinion. Well, yeah, I'm not so sure, Bob. I used to say I thought it was dead. It looks like on paper. It's there. Yeah.

I used to think it was dead. But now I'm not so sure because, you know, can't look at the top, last, you know, at 125, whatever. I mean, look, there are cycles, and to me, they're actually more just standard. And they don't have to do with the halving anymore because the reward is not what's driving the demand. The reward is trivial compared to the demand from ETFs and everything else. That's not the issue. But I think like any financial asset, there will be cycles where of just standard fear and greed. You know, people will chase it and buy it and lever up and get way too far out over their skis.

It'll get way ahead of the model price. And guess what? you know, some people will sell and I get cleaned out and it'll get way below the model price and that's where we are right now. And that I can buy, I can buy that there's a cycle, I guess, a cycle based on that. Yes. To the point that you, I mean, you said it, like it has nothing to do with the halving. Right. And I agree that.

The fervor that has come around the last couple halvings, it's kind of. fun, I guess, in a way. By the-oh, are you saying you don't think when the next halving comes up that like six months leading into the halving, it's going to start going up because everybody, oh, it's going to be cutting half. It's going to, we're going to have this giant thing. People are going to start buying it, forcing the price up. Well, here's the only thing I can say. The cost of production doubles overnight. So if you look at it, if you look at it from what does it do to the supply, it's meaningless. and it has been meaningless for several havings, right?

It really doesn't affect the amount of Bitcoin getting in the market. What it does do is it doubles the cost of production overnight. So that is a true state. And it can hit the miners in a big way, obviously, right? Yeah, yeah. So, you know, we care a lot about it. We, I should point out, it only doubles the cost of production in a world of where the fees are really low, which is they are abysmally low right now.

And this is, like we were talking about FUD before, and I spend a lot of time and effort over the last few years talking about block space scarcity. And I still hold everything I've said about that to be true, that I think ultimately we will find that block space itself is phenomenally scarce and there will be fierce competition just for access to the base layer. That said, people aren't using the network right now. And that's not good for Bitcoin. You know, it needs,

Metcalf's law is, you know, the value of a network is equal to the square of the number of users of the network. But people aren't using the network. And we talked about the ETS. Well, that kind of takes people off of the network, right? You know, the new people coming in aren't running nodes. They're not running.

base layer transactions themselves, like these sort of things. And that is concerning. That does hurt. Probably don't want to go too deep into it, but maybe we can do it in a different episode, you know, about governance and things like that. But while Bitcoin adoption has gone way up over the last several years and we have, you know, a couple hundred million people with wallets and all that sort of stuff, there's like 25,000. listening nodes, like what I would call active nodes on the network. That's it. And that's not good. And when we are faced, by the way, with junctures in the protocol and the governance, which, you know, you were talking about Larry, you know, the nodes play an important part in that. And, you know,

the only people that essentially get a vote, I'll put it that way, the only people that get a vote in those sort of things are those with nodes. You know, they, they can signal for protocol changes. And if there happens to be some, what's called a competing chain, they get to pick which of the chains they're going to follow, like those are, those are important. Now, the, maybe a good time to just real quickly hit a couple of the things from earlier before, like quantum.

I think the two things that are kind of prevalent in the industry right now are quantum fud and kind of governance. And I would say, you know, one has legs and one has a reason for concern and one has no reason for concern. The one that has no reason for concern is quantum. Contrary to, I think, what a lot of people, especially outside, experts outside of Bitcoin, Bitcoin doesn't even use really encryption. That's not the way that it works, first of all. quantum theoretically could have an impact on certain Bitcoin addresses.

But we already, even in today's world, in today's implementation of Bitcoin, we can, that Bitcoin can be made safe right now. Like you, you just move it to a new address that's never had its public address exposed and you're safe. Okay. So now, and there are very active groups. There are several of them working on protocol upshade grades to create even better quantum

resistant addresses, nothing to worry about. That doesn't mean work isn't required, but the work is happening and we're fine. Probably the thing that's probably more concerning is, you know, governance. And this is what Saylor, like you said, like you said, You know, Sailor is basically said, hey, I'm going to get involved. And he should. You know, how the protocol evolves. Who has a say in it?

The pace of the change. What are the priorities of the changes? These are big, big deals. And there's something called BIP 110 right now, which is probably not worthy of a deep dive here. But it's caused a controversy. There's somewhere around 70% of the nodes are now signaling that they want this change. The potential change would come in late September if it were to come. It's created within the technical community a lot of budding heads.

And some of it gets kind of, I would say, vocally violent at this point, or, you know, very contentious. It's my opinion that we have to evolve the way that we make changes. And I think Sailor is kind of saying the same thing. Like, hey, the system that's been used and the group of people that have been driving it will certainly a lot of technical competency. But they're very insular. They don't communicate well. they're very closed off to newcomers.

And some changes need to be made there because we have a $2 trillion asset now. People all over the world are using it and counting on it. And the old way doesn't work. And I would say, by the way, I went through this in the personal computer industry, the way in which we developed products and made changes in, let's

say the early to mid-80s is very different than the way we had to do it by the late 90s. And it was very difficult for the developers to accept that because essentially they drove the bus in the early days and it was a much wider committee, or not committee, much wider community that had a say in the later days and the technical community really pushed back against it. So I think we're seeing a lot of that. It's kind of a psychological thing. Well, there you go. That's interesting. Yeah, that's interesting. Look, it's, you know, TikTok next block, right? It's just going to continue marching forward. And, you know, I feel sorry for people who aren't in it because, you know,

there's no excuse for not being in it now. There's enough information out there. There's enough time and of data, you know, it's, to me, it's just blindingly obvious where it's going, what's happening. You know, if you don't want to do the work and take the time to understand it, you know, I mean, one of things I've been able to do with a lot of my friends is just to get them, and I'm sure you guys do the same, just to get them to get started, you know, it's like, you know, investing is all about asymmetry. And so, you know, if you can only lose one X what you put in, you can make five to 20x what

you put into something, you know, well, then you should take the, and that's, you really do believe the odds are in favor that it's going to work, and you should take that back, you know, every time, you know, even if occasionally you do lose the one X. So, and I don't think you're going to lose the one X here, but I, you know, I do know that the asymmetry is really there. So, you know, I just try and get everybody I talk to to to buy some Bitcoin because that's how it starts. You know, you buy some, then you watch it, then you learn something about it, then it starts to work, then you buy some more, you know, pretty soon you end up doing podcasts for most of your life. Yeah.

You know, I found personally, if you're not talking, I'm not talking about high wealth individuals necessarily. But if you're talking to just regular folks and they're interested in Bitcoin, it's a lot easier to talk them in to start dollar cost averaging a small amount. Absolutely. And then all of a sudden, within a year, they get it and they go buy some, you know, Because most of those places do a good job of sending out some information, a newsletter, blah, blah, blah, and they got money in the game, even though it's not a lot. Once you've got a little bit of skin in the game, it immediately forces you to pay more attention.

And then, of course, you start to learn and you realize what the difficulty adjustment is. And it's just the evidence continues to build and build and build. And you're like, Jesus, why do I only have so little of this? I need to own more. Yeah, I've had so many times. or something I've talked into doing a small amount monthly or weekly. And then within six months, I hear from them.

They're going, oh, I just bought, you know, blah, blah, blah, you know, amount. It's exactly right. It's an easy sell compared to like, say, to go on by Bitcoin. Because then you've got to explain they don't have to buy $135,000 worth and all this stuff, you know. Absolutely.

With a guy who was worth yesterday, Bob, he's like, well, if I'm going to buy this, do I need to buy a whole one? And I was like, no, of course you don't. Did he ask you if you had one in your pocket? I didn't ask that. Do you have one on you? I go, wow, I just explained it for 20 minutes. And you asked me if I have one.

I really did a shitty job, didn't I? Well, you know, it's funny you say that, Gary, about doing a shitty job because I had a little story I wanted to tell you guys. And on Tuesday evening, I had been asked to go speak to a group here in Naples. and it was about 75 people in the room. I would say 80% boomers, by the way, but a few younger people in the room. And they had asked me to come speak about Bitcoin and money.

And so I'm not going to give you the whole presentation, but I started with some basics like, you know, what is money, what's broken in the system, like these types of things before I got. to Bitcoin. And then I thought what I gave was a was a pretty good, compelling reason why, you know, Bitcoin was important and, you know, encourage them, much like you're saying, Gary, to maybe dabble a little bit. Basically, nobody in the room owned any, right? Super novice group. And told them to buy it with the expectation that they would hold it at least four years before they

evaluate it, you know, the whole thing. And I should point out, I went through what I thought was a decent primer on Bitcoin. Well, we opened it up for Q&A. And one of the first questions was from an older gentleman. And I would say he was, he was almost angry, you know, at me. And he said, he said paraphrasing. Who's, Who's the head of Bitcoin? Who makes the decisions? Until I know who that person is, I'm not going to trust anything. And how do I know that the Russians aren't going to just hack this thing?

And obviously he hadn't listened very well, or I did a very poor job of, you know, communicating. And I tried. I probably both of you guys, I know both do a fair amount of public speaking, you know, so you get these kind of confrontational things and trying to stay professional things. and trying to stay professional, you know, at the beginning. And so I responded with, hey, you have to get comfortable with decentralization. And, you know, Bitcoin is about not having a trusted third party and things I had actually covered, of course, you know, earlier in the presentation. And he came back, you know, same, same sort of thing.

Like, you know, basically, you know, it's a it's a Ponzi scheme. it's, you know, blah, blah, blah. So what I said was I said, well, you know, sure, you've obviously, you're obviously in the back nine of life. So you were around in 71 when Nixon took us off the gold standard. How do you feel about the fact that your money's been devalued by 95% since 1971? Are those the people that you want to trust? Is that where you want to place your face? Great question.

Yeah. And boy, he got really red. And he didn't, not that it was a debate or anything like that. But I find it, it's funny because when you go to a show like that, there were 20 other questions. They were great questions. I'm pretty confident. Several people walked out of that room and bought Bitcoin. Good.

But what's funny is it's always the one guy that sticks in your head, right? Yeah. That, you know, you wonder like, what, what's going on in his head? And, you know, the takeaway I had from it was that it's indicative of, of, I think, people in society that really want to be a slave, that they want there to be somebody else that's in charge, right? And that's where their comfort comes. And, and, you know, it's, there's always going to be a group of those folks, probably, and just have to accept it. But I think that's a great question. You asked them.

I mean, that's, I'm going to put that in my back pocket, too. Next time I might have some kind of situation about trust. Yeah. Yeah. But the, the desire to trust people. But I think that's where kind of the whole socialist movement comes from. Like there's that the whole group of people, they want to trust the central planner.

They want to trust the authority. And no matter how many examples they see a bad. Yeah. Yeah. Because I said to him, I said a couple of things. You know, and I said to him, I said, you know, history is not on your side. Every currency ever created by governments is essentially failed.

and, you know, I don't know why you want to trust it. So some people are more comfortable in that world. I mean, the thing that I think we all have going for us is that, you know, I mean, now you literally week by week, hour by hour have examples of why none of these people should be trusted. I mean, we now have, we now know that, you know, many of the leaders of our country and other countries and so forth have compromised. this Epstein thing. And I mean, it's just, it's just one, you know, outrageous example of broken trust after another. You know what I mean? Right. How anybody can look at the system and go, oh, yeah, this is a good system. We should just trust this. I mean, give me a break. You know, I mean, you know, people have low moral value when they get into any kind of position of power

are going to stoop to the low as they can with that power. Many are, many people. Not all, but you're right. Many of you're angry with you. Well, I'm saying people with low moral value. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not saying good people. Like, I believe you guys would be okay. But, you know, if you have no morals to begin with, and you're giving much power. You're going to do whatever, yeah.

Yeah. Look, it's to me, it's just as obvious as day. It's interesting. I mean, it does shake some people's worldview. I mean, if you're a statist and you believe in the state and you believe in government, you know, and I mean, you know, self-custody, for example, I mean, you know, free is uncomfortable. I mean, you've got to take responsibility, you know, for yourself and for others. And some people don't want that. They actually want to believe that there's a nanny state that's going to take care of them. You know, I think that has to do with kind of something Bob mentioned, maybe as you Bob may, maybe as Mel mentioned it before we started to show. You know, a lot of people in today's society, we've had such a comfortable life here in the United States for so many years. I mean, we're like, about 200 years now, whatever or so, or however many.

years that they don't have, they feel like they, that everything's great, that the United States is, I remember my wife, to change the example, told me back in 79, oh, the United States will be here forever. This is the greatest country ever. And really? I'm going, you know, Rome was there 500 years and it disappeared. Yeah. You know, so people have that concept, you know, that slowly, but surely, but sure, that's breaking down, but for the most part, older people have that concept, you know, because they'd never seen anything. It's not unrealistic. I mean, I don't think it's all going to devolve and fall apart tomorrow. But, you know, we can see, and I think we'll see radical, radical change. I mean, I think that, you know, the next generation is not going to put up with this shit. And they shouldn't. You know, America will probably be here in some form, but it may not be the form that we're in right now. This next generation is just not going to put up with this shit.

And, you know, this fourth turning is going to create some massive reform. And it should, you know, because we all look at, you know, we watch what we see on the news every day. day. We watched people testifying in front of Congress and we're like, you know, what the hell? This is just not right. Well, where do you think we're at in the fourth turning? I mean, yeah, so I think we're... Are we just at the beginning or are we in the middle? I know we're not at the end, so... Well, my view is the beginning was 08. That was the, that was when the fabric started to tear and that we're now deep into it. That I think it, you know, most fourth turnings have lasted between 20 and 30 years, so 20 years would take you to 20, 28, 30 years are taking

at 2038. I don't think it's going to take all the way to 2038, but it could. I kind of tend to think that the culmination and the reset will occur in the early 2030s. You know, I think that I've said this in other parts, to briefly recap it. I think that basically, I think that, you know, blue team, or red team is going to lose in 2028 for a variety of reasons. I'm not going to argue those. And then blue team's going to win and blue team's going to go. UBI, you know, debt forgiveness, low interest rates, print money, and they're going to trash

the currency. We're going to have inflation like it's going to melt people's faces. And so that's from 2028 to 2032. You know, and it may be Weimar style or it may be just really high South American style, but in either case, everyone's just going to be like, do whatever it takes to stop this shit. And I think in 2032, Michael Saylor is president. I think he stands up and he says, I've got the receipt. I'm an engineer.

I know we're wrong. The money is broken. I'm the richest man in the world. It doesn't really matter. I'm going to give it all the way anyway. And here's how we refine. We reset the system, guys. You know, we're going to go to a Bitcoin standard,

and we're going to have a constitutional convention so that, you know, the original vision of the founding fathers is reenacted in things like a term limits and, you know, the ability to fire judges and just a lot of, there'll be massive reforms. and he will have the credibility to pull it off. And everyone will be hurting so bad that they'll be begging him to do it. So that's-

I've never had a president following me on Twitter. So that'd be kind of cool. Yeah, right, exactly. So, I mean, that's my dream case. I don't know if that's really what will happen. But I think the problems will get severe enough in the early 2030s that, you know, a solution will emerge. You know, I mean, they'll be able, at that point in time,

they'll also, the boomers, enough of the boomers will have died off, they'll be able to reform Social Security and Medicare, you know, they'll be able to balance the budget. You know, a lot of, a lot of things will happen. And, and the next generation will be taken over and they're just not going to put up with any of the shit that's going on right now. So, so I think, you know, I think the bad news is it would probably be a pretty rough six years. I think the good news is, you know, on the other side of that six years, you know, we're going to have, we're going to go back to first principles in America, which, you know, is founded as a sound money country. with gold and silver being the only forms of money written in the constitution.

You know, in this case, I think it'll beat Bitcoin. And in that respect, we'll leapfrog China because China's made a bet on gold, which is a mistake. They're making the same mistake. And they made a bet on silver one time before. Exactly. And we screwed them as a result of it. So, you know, that's kind of how I see it on unfolding.

Gary, I don't know if that's really what will happen, but that's just a guess. Yeah. Obviously, we all have, you know, a murky crystal ball. Right. But what I would say that is interesting right now is if we zoom out globally, you know, we have a serious secession movement in Canada with Alberta. We have an Iranian revolution on seemingly simmering. We have Venezuela that may flip. It looks like Cuba.

Cuba seems to be falling apart. Costa Rica just elected a woman as president basically following the Buckele. I didn't know that. Yeah. And so there are these spots in the world where, you know, the revolt is coming. I think, you know, we see Italy and Japan. Like, this I think is actually really cool, super strong, female heads of state who are. pushing almost a, you know, a radical shift against socialism. Yeah.

Protecting national sovereignty. Poland's always been very strong about it. So those are the things that I give me hope, frankly. Yeah. That, you know, but on the other hand, we have Mondami being elected in New York, similar person in Seattle. You have this sort of bullshit happening in the U.S. And, you know, it may come back to it.

You know, it's interesting in Atlas shrugged, the U.S. kind of falls first. And I think in their case, in the case in the book, it's more Europe that kind of went the right way. I don't think Europe's going the right way. They're even, they're really bad. They're way down the wrong path. But these other areas of the world, people get it. They're revolting against all these. I know, it's all common.

It's coming our way, but it's, you know, it's messy. It's going to be messy, that's for sure. So, Gary, we have your conference coming up. I think this show, by the way, is being recorded on February 13th, probably released a week or so after that. So as people are listening, Larry and I will be joining Gary in Texas for Pitblock Boom in early April. And, you know, if you're looking to gather with other bitquiners, it's a great conference. I've been there several years in a row now.

And we, I've always found it to be one of the better gatherings. So if you're looking to connect. It's a human scale conference with a lot of good speakers. And I'll have books there for sale if you want to sign hardcover. I'll be able to sell your book. And we actually have several, Pete, you're signing books there. We have Jimmy Song's there signing books. We have Parker Lewis is there signing books.

Yeah, this will be, I'm kind of excited about this year's event. This is our ninth event, you know, which makes us like the longest running Bitcoin conference around. But we're doing it in Fort Worth and what's called Caltown in the Stockyards. And if you've watched any of the shows by Sheridan, like the 1870s, when they go out west, they're in the stockyards. They just bring dirt on the road and make it look like, because it looks like it did in the 1870s. Landman, when they go to a restaurant at the cattleman's steakhouse, that's down there in the stockyards.

Interesting. I can't like to go to that. I love Landman. Yeah, so, yeah, Landman is the hit. We watch that every night. But it's in that area. So it's going to be really cool. And it's a cattle drive that will come by Saturday.

Every Saturday, Longhorn Steers, they do a cattle drug. It's more for a show than it is real. It's probably the same cattle every week. But it's kind of neat. to see the longhorn steers come by. And we're in an old rustic place that has been there for years and years. And because of where the event is at in the room we have, it's a big room and it's got, you know, brick flooring and hard walls

and the tables in the back. So we're doing something that we've never done at Bitblock Room is when you check in, you're handed a set of headphones. Now, like on Friday, when this work, workshops are going on or the sessions three are running at the same time. And with side by side is the way we're doing it. And you could be sitting over here watching the mining sessions and you go, I wonder what these other ones are and you can switch the channels and listen to the other

sessions and say, oh wow, I really want to walk over there. You can just walk over there and listen to the lightning sessions, sit down and watch it. Or if you have to go to the restroom, you don't have to wait for the break. You still got your headphones on. You still can go to the restaurant. And then Saturday, of course, there's one stage, so all the headphones and a BSO. I think this is really cool. And I know several people who've been to conferences with the headphones and they really, really,

people seem to like it a lot. So I'm curious to see how this goes. We're trying to do one of our parties at a rodeo, the Thursday night event, which is going to be really cool. And then we have, gosh, it's just going to be, you know, this year, I think everybody, especially people who come from like Australia. Europe or even up north, when they come to Bitbock, boom, they're thinking they're going to be seeing

Cowboys stuff. And they don't because it's been in Austin or in Dallas and that could be in any town USA. Where this time, they're going to see Cowboys walking around. You know, as soon as you walk out of the venue, you go four feet, and there's a cowboy hat store, and there's a boot store. So I think people are really going to get

a good taste of Texas. Yeah, that's fun. And also just want to mention, if anyone is interesting checking out, the site and decided to come we have a discount code i'll just give out mail's code it's mail 10 10 that'll give you 10% off but check it out uh we're gonna have a good crowd it's a bitcoin only crowd if you like bitcoin yeah i talked to someone last night was telling me they went to archipelow and all these places in there in dallas i said so you go all these places and you hadn't hit bivog boom and

it's been here like nine years well i didn't know about it until tonight you know so um yeah so we should should have a good time. Thanks for bringing that up. And like you said, we got a panel with the boomers on it. Yep. Yeah, we're going to have a good show. Our buddy George is going to come in, our first guest on this show. And we'll do a panel with him. So that'll be great.

It's going to be a good show. People will enjoy it. You guys will like it this year. Yeah. You really like this stuff around. And everything's a walking distant. The hotel is literally two minutes. We're using an outdoor venue, a different venue, not outdoors, but it's outside of the hotel.

But the hotel is two minutes from the venue. and like everything, the parties, everything are in walking distance pretty much. You know, instead of having to rent an Uber or, you know, because I don't know if you were there when we were in Austin the second year. To go to that city I rented, it was a 45 minute drive, you know. Yeah, I was at that one, yeah. That was a good deal, but it was a long drive. That was a hike.

It was. But not many people rent a whole city like that to. Yeah, no, that was fun. It was well done. Yeah. So, yeah, well, I, it said, I'm a big fan of your show, Gary. I'm going to a lot less this year, by the way.

I think Larry and I have actually talked about this. Larry's of the same mindset. We're probably not going to be as many places as we have in the past. It just there's a lot of shows. You know, if you got one in your area, I certainly encourage you to go to it and gather with other Bitcoiners. But, you know, it can get draining. And, you know, because you could go to one almost every weekend.

There's somewhere in the world, every week, almost everywhere in the world. And so I frankly have been to too many the last handful of years. And I have to a little more time with my family, a little more focus on my business than previous years. Looking forward to it though, Gary. It should be fun. Yeah. We'll have a good time this year. Yeah.

So I don't know if you guys have anything else that we should cover today. but I know next next show we're planning to have Joe Kelly from Unchained Capital and we'll talk about some security and scams and custody and stuff like that with Joe. I love Joe. He's a great thing.

He's an Unchained's been our platinum sponsor for like seven years. Yeah. Yeah, great organization. I do use them personally and for some of my businesses. So I'm a big fan. That's an unpaid plug, by the way. But just to be clear,

I really do use them and like them. So look forward to having Joe. All right, guys. Well, I think to be with you guys. Nice. Enjoyed it completely. I'll see you guys next month. Likewise.

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