Business of Speed Podcast - Which F1 Drivers Will Survive The Referendum Year?

Episode Date: January 22, 2026

Welcome to a special episode of Business of Speed where Vincenzo and Lali dive deep into Formula 1's most consequential contract year in recent memory. With new regulations, new cars, and new power units hitting the grid in 2026, an unprecedented 60% of drivers face expiring contracts - turning this season into what we're calling "The Referendum Year."

Hola, Vincenzo. Lali. How are you? I'm doing really well. How are you? Good, good, good. It's just that I'm a little cold. So if I keep shaking, it's because I'm freezing.

I actually am a little toasty right now because I had to crank up the heat in my place to like 1,000 because it's so cold here as well. It's quite the problem living up in the northern states or you're in the north country, as they say, as Bob Dylan said. As Bob Dylan said, I am the girl from the North country. And in Canada, we like to say we the North. And definitely we are the North. Yeah.

All right, Jon Snow. Yeah. But here, thankfully, we won't have to be in the cold for much longer because in a couple weeks, we'll be at Daytona. We will be. Or the Rolex 24. Even though it's like, I think it'll only be like 65 degrees Fahrenheit. That is going to be like a heat wave compared to, I think, what is it for you? Eight degrees Fahrenheit at the moment?

Yep. Eight degrees Fahrenheit. That's like minus 13, minus 15 Celsius for my Celsius people. And it is 65 seems like a nice summer day to me right now. So I will take it. I'm going to bring my bathing suit. Listen, when we ended up and we crowned Lando Norris as champion, that seemed like far away. The season was starting far away, but now we're like kind of stuff is happening. We have car reveals coming. We have testing coming up, Barcelona and then in the Middle East. So I thought that this would be a really good time to talk about the fact that there are a ton of drivers out of contract at the end of this year.

So it's kind of unheard of. Usually there's some, there's a few here and there. There is an inordinate amount out of contract. And I love this because I think that specifically this season with the new car, with the new regulations, the new aero, the new power unit, it's going to be sort of like. I don't know, think about it like a referendum of the drivers, right? Because some of them will adapt really well to the new car and some of them won't. So by mid-season, and that's when we start hearing about the silly season in F1, right? Sort of toward the break.

By then, we're going to know who has adapted to the car. Even if the car is underperforming, we'll know who's like giving it their max and who's extracting the maximum out of the car and who is struggling. And that's when the teams have to make the decisions. Hey, are we going to like renew this guy stability for a couple of years or is it going to be like coaching season and we're going to see who's going to steal drivers from other teams and be like, oh, that guy figured it out. Let's bring him over. Right. So I I'm calling it the referendum year. What do you think? Referendum year? It is what Lali says goes. If it's the referendum year, it is the referendum year. I'm with you on that one. I like it. We crown it the referendum year.

Well, none of these contracts are really like the thing with the contracts is multi-year. You don't really know. Are there options? Are they extensions? You know, true multi, like Leclerc, the details are like unknown, right? I think Lewis Hamilton was, was such a, like we knew a lot about his deal with Ferrari just because it was such a big deal. but i think a lot of these contracts are very similar right it's yep it's through this year there might be an option or you know like you said it's let's see what happens sort of thing the problem or the challenge with the pinnacle of motorsport is that you do need to perform year in and year out and you have to be at the peak and if you're not for one season you could be gone the next and you know you see it more with the lower uh tiered teams the back of the the grid because you know they're trying to strike gold on some of these guys but um yeah see i think it's something like 60 of the grid is going to be either out of contract or an option have an option um for 27 so

yeah let's let's go ahead let's take it from the top so i'll throw you some names um speaking of of guys who, in my opinion, didn't really even adapt to last year's car, Franco Colapinto, he could be out of contract. I don't see this guy getting another drive in F1 if Alpine doesn't renew him. So I think his best bet would take his Mercado Libre money and go to Formula E, perhaps. I don't see him in F1 if he's out of contract. What do you think?

Yeah. No, I think you're right. The thing is, they selected him. They swapped him in for Jack Doohan. what like midway through 25 and then no race is in or three it was it was embarrassing and they picked him over paul aaron as well he does have he does bring money which we know is important he does bring the argentinian fan base which is also important but yeah i mean it's this is a i think this is a do or die for him and this is like we say the stakes are very high in formula one the

seats are limited he's this is a do or die do or die for colapinto that's my take he's he's got to show something or else he's probably not going to ever have another shot again okay now we're going to go to our aston martin friends we're going to do for lance stroll alonso everyone knows he's been saying it all over the place if the car is good he might retire because he wants to leave on it on a good note if the car sucks he probably will stay long to try to end on a high note. I don't see how if the car sucks, he'll put up with another circus of 24 races. Rumor is he's expecting his first child. So I don't know how that will play into it. I do remember vividly in Suzuka 2005 when he did that pass on Schumacher and he said, I knew I could break later because

he has a wife and two kids at home. So now how the tables are turned. Now he's going to be the one with the baby at home. Let's see how that affects his driving or his decision even to stay on a little longer what's your take i think the decision is the car right where it's very it revolves around what new he's created and if this is some championship winning car i think alonso sticks around if it's a dog from the get-go and there's no hope like does he stick does he continue trying and aiming for another championship level car you know he's going to be what is he 45 yeah So he's pushing 50 at this point, you know, somebody like somebody stroll, Lawrence has to say, you know, all right, we need to, we need to get this moving here because we can't

just keep, uh, filling a seat. Wait, I mean, he's doing the same thing with his son. So it's like, are you just gifting these seats to people because you, I don't know, is it working if it works for you? Great. But you have to perform at some point, right? sponsors and and uh and whatnot will start to quickly go elsewhere if they don't see an end in sight alonso it's a sexy pick right like oh yeah fernando alonso two-time champion that not many

teams can say they have a champion on the grid right now uh right in fact there was what like three teams that can actually say that well four i guess my ex lando and fernando four and fernando so you have four you know champions on the grid four teams now it's there's seven other teams that don't have a champion on it so okay it's it's good for marketing but come on if if you I think he still has it and that's the that's the what's holding him there if he loses it after he gets he has a kid and he becomes a father then we'll then we'll know right away but I like this for him if Newey and the Honda unit can really give them you know hope of a car that can compete this is going to be it for for alonzo so 26 will we see him in 27 if this car can give him something

yeah i think we will we'll see okay his teammate lance stroll in my opinion this comes down obviously to papa stroll but i also think that at some point say no more lance has to have like some sort of existential crisis of shame and and and maybe have a a talk with himself is he is he the guy for the job right is is he the guy he's probably putting a lot of pressure on his father his his father's probably you know um just flying his existence day in and day out in boardrooms maybe he says you know what i don't want to do this anymore i'm gonna go to weck i'm gonna go to imsa where listen i always say this lance had a really good junior formula career that has something not many people can get a formula one car around the track at speed etc so he could have

a really good career elsewhere so i do think that the stroll thing comes up to him deciding for himself i don't think his dad will kick him out of the seat i think lance has to decide for himself we're in agreement there next a bit of a revelation from 2025 he's sort of audi long term i don't see how i would get rid of him if he's delivering but he's got to deliver right he's got to deliver at this point yeah these young guys you they have to perform because there's so many other younger drivers that are upcoming that can fill the seats when we know that you know can fill the seats that might give better opportunity like we just you don't know but he does have he does have a shot here so we'll see what he does with it hopefully they can give him a car that's decent as well

but for now i think they're going to be stuck in the back like you know cadillac as a new as a new contender yeah so that brings me to his teammate nico hulkenberg who has been on the records that he may retire he may not if he's happy coming to the paddock and he's enjoying himself why would he leave i think he's consistently solid he's reliable i think he's good for audi to partner with a with a younger guy i don't think if i don't know if audi doesn't renew his contract i don't know if another team would like i don't know if he'll circulate again through another team he's been on a lot of teams but i think if the car is good and he's performing he He typically can extract more from a car than the car has to give.

He's that kind of a racer. So I think if it's going well, he stays with Audi. What do you think? Well, I mean, I think he's locked up there for the near future, maybe even into his 40s, if possible. Like, he's a German driver. There's no other German driver right now, right? There's no other German.

I'm trying to think of any others. I'm doing the same. I'm going through the grid. Like, there's no other German driver even maybe on the come up or close enough to say like, okay, so it would be, it's, I think that's what Audi wants as well. You know, they want to have a German leading the project and they've put together a really good team around, around the drivers. So yeah, I can't see why they would want to move on from him anytime soon. And it's his choice, but I think it could be, we could see him into his, you know,

at least early 40s on this project we're in agreement so we move on to ollie bearman i have a little soft spot for him he's so sweet he's like a little teddy bear kind of guy but he's quite tall uh so obviously a known ferrari asset uh he's with ha sort of training he's doing his training his apprenticeship for ferrari at haas i think he stays at haas unless for some miracle leclerc or lewis jump ship perhaps and then that's the only opportunity i see him moving into the the big team otherwise i don't see him going to another to another engine uh and obviously there's no place for him at cadillac so i think he stays at haas yeah i think you know for now at least he's gonna he'll be there i i do think there is a world where lewis retires and he goes to ferrari

right but it's not this year at least and then if the ferrari if the car is not good and lewis is out does baron even want to go there in 27 but i i do think there's still an opportunity for him there but that you know that window could be closing also for him because there are others that ferrari may want to go after oscar piastri max verstappen maybe kimi antonelli like there are other options that may materialize as we like you said you know silly season pops up and all of a sudden everything all the logic goes out the window and you and they want other drivers you know even the lewis thing with ferrari i remember when that dropped seemed ill i don't want to say illogical but it seemed like it was very shocking at the time obviously now everyone's like oh my

god this is a terrible move okay hindsight is 2020 yeah so i think that could be that type of situation for bearman as well it's like it is gonna it is gonna be reliant on where lewis is and then if leclerc ends up moving then you've realistically could have two seats there that are different but i yeah the ferrari seats are interesting because they really need to they need to win bearman would be a young second driver i don't think he's at that echelon yet like you know solid number two like a botas or a perez that were a very good number two to help their number one guys you know what i mean yeah he needs a team leader to support him and sort of mentor him. Of course. I'm going now to everyone's best friend, Esti Besti Esteban Ocon. I think he stays

at Haas. I think that's easy. The car's performing. I think he stays there. I also think that if Haas were to go in a different direction, he still has a future on the grid. He's a guy that you can, he's reliable. He's a good benchmark for teammates. I think he'd be good at other teams as a leader with a rookie teammate. So I don't think even if Haas were to go a different way, I don't think we've seen the last of Esteban Ocon yeah I think there's definitely like you said there's a place for him on the grip solid driver he's kind of in like you know mediocre cars right now so it's hard to really put a barometer on him but we know how he can perform we know what he can do and we know he's not afraid to push it you know we know he's not afraid to to do things that are a little

different when he has to and he can put and he can I think he can extract the most from a car so yeah this he is a good fit I would like to see him in a in a better car unless Haas is suddenly good but let's not hold our breath uh so so Esteban should be around for the foreseeable future whether it's with Haas or with somebody else I mean I always thought the the second Ferrari spot could have been his at some point but that was before Lewis came around I thought that was the you know if one of the two left which obviously Sainz left I thought Ocon could could end up there at some point okay i'm gonna move on to your fratello andrea kimi antonelli i think he's safe um i don't know oto gets his dream wait so i have a i have a take here unless

toto gets his his dream of getting max because there's been rumors and whispers that he's courting max but at the same time if toto brings max in does he burn the bridge forever with his real life bestie lewis hamilton so i don't know how that would work out and then are you gonna have Max and George Russell on the same team, I think that would be an absolute disaster. So that means Russell would be out as well. So I don't know how this plays out. So for now, I'm going to say Antonelli is pretty safe. Kimi's safe. Toto loves him. I think he really came on strong. You know, he still had his moments. He's 18 years old. Let's be real. You can't expect tons from him. And jumping into a car the last year of its development cycle. What do you expect? Yeah,

i think he's safe i think he's he's safe it'll be it will be interesting though to see if russell makes a move away but it will depend on the power unit and it will depend on if mercedes is good you know we're hearing all these rumors about mercedes and the red bull power units having loopholes and all this other stuff and so like are they just really good or is it all is it all you know smoke and mirrors right now yeah be interesting so we're gonna move on to his the aforementioned George Russell. I think he stays at Mercedes. He's obviously a known quantity there that he's someone you can build a team around. He's a great mentor for Kimi. But let's say, let's say in some hypothetical scenario that Toto gets Max or get some other like dream driver that he's been

salivating over. Then I was thinking like, where, where would George fit in? And I thought Aston Barton, because you could lose Alonso there, right? So he would like sort of swoop in as a leader with a younger driver and that would be a really nice reset and refresh team especially if the 26 car is legit that would be a nice place and to land so that's that's the only place i can see him landing maybe you have another take no i think i kind of think george might be and again i'm going to say that a lot of these people might be fits at ferrari not a lot but i think there could be a world where he fits there as well but yeah george i don't know i think he's safe for now I don't think he's going anywhere.

Again, like you said, if Toto has a shot at Max Verstappen, a real one, then everything, all hell breaks loose. But aside from that, I mean, George definitely proved that he was a top three driver on the grid last year. He really did. This is coming from someone who's not a George Russell fan. I like him, but I was never really a big fan, but he really showed a lot last year.

he was super consistent he was probably one of the more i don't have the exact stats and numbers in front of me but he was definitely one of the more consistent drivers on the grid even more so than max and probably even more so than oscar he was very consistent and in a car that was not you know it was maybe the second best car well we know it was a second at least a second best third early in the season it might have been a little bit lower like i think he proved himself and Toto would be foolish to move on from that without having someone locked in like a Max Verstappen. And there really would be nobody else, I think,

that you could put in that seat that would bounce George. Maybe Lando, but I don't know that Toto is like a Lando guy. What about the return of Lewis Hamilton? Boom, boom, boom! Oh my goodness, wouldn't that be like the... I think Lewis retires. No, Lewis will retire. I'll tell you something, as an avid, as you know, legend in fantasy Formula One,

Virgil Russell was an incredible asset all year. He performed really well. That to me shows that a guy was consistent as if he's a good asset for me. Plug and play. You put him in. Plug and play. I'm going to move on to Liam Lawson, who I think is in the swan song of his career, unless he performs at Racing Bulls this year.

I don't see him somebody being like, oh, I want to poach Liam Lawson from the Racing Bulls. No. so i think this is pretty much a make or break season for him i'll say you know the move to racing bulls actually proved to be a blessing for him because we saw how sonota is not even racing you know in formula one now this year so you know blessing in disguise and he definitely at least secured a future for 26 he's gonna have to show a lot though and now he's got a rookie next to him Linbod if he out if if he can't yeah I mean if he can't outperform the rookie all year the only rookie that's going to be on the grid this year you know that then he's done

so hopefully it's a good it's a good confidence boost for him to be racing aside a rookie and it gives him the opportunity to you know beat his teammate out but other than that I mean he's going to have to really show that he he's got something because last year wasn't wasn't wasn't the best for him but he did he had some there were some there were some bright moments at times you know it was definitely better off in that car than he was in the red bull for sure and we all know how the red bull chews you up and spits you out but yeah i mean yeah again wasn't memorable nice enough but not memorable enough to keep around so we'll talk about lynn blad the rookie you just mentioned uh who's going to be teaming up with liam lawson i think the dude performs he

gets it to your extension it's a no-brainer keep him in the in the in the red bull family sort of prime him for the big bull i don't think there's much there um so everyone's performance based here yeah exactly we're gonna move on to everyone's favorite new frenchman isaac hajar he's moved on now to the big bull we'll we'll see how that goes i'm hoping that now that christian and helmet are gone that this isn't a situation where the kid has three races to prove himself and then he gets demoted um because they're certainly not going to put lynn blad in the car and they're certainly not going to put lean loss in the car so i think that isaac will have the whole season to prove himself to to use max for stopping as a benchmark and if he performs i think they keep him there to

sort of especially if there's whispers of max leaving they'd want a known quantity there as well absolutely i think isaac he at least earned himself another season and maybe even another season right through 27 like the first year in a regulation set we have no idea what to expect we don't know how the car like we're hearing there's so many things i hear from engineers that are like this regulation set is terrible the car like cars are gonna suck you know all this kind of stuff you hear all these rumors and you're like okay well if that's the case then maybe some of these drivers are gonna have more of an opportunity and like you said horner's not there helmet's not there he may be given a little more grace than he would have in the past which great for him because i

think he's a he's he's definitely one of if not the most promising young you know younger of the of that group so yeah i would love to see him succeed that would be great if he could hang with max a little bit push him a little bit more you know fingers crossed for him but yeah big fan i think he at least deserves a seat through 27 at this point just from how he performed and max is sort of on the record as as being really against them just destroying a guy's morale and pulling him out out of the team and sending him to the junior team like max is on the record he doesn't like that and now with christian gone maybe max will get more saying like no we don't do that for sure so okay we are going to move on to alexander albon

his end it could be 26 it could be 27 like but let's say it's 26 i think he performs he stays at williams but i have a little take perhaps that if hulk retires i think that would be a nice place audi for albon so they have a a more a senior driver to to mentor uh bortoletto that's that's sort of my take yeah we'll see i mean i i like that i actually really like what williams is doing they've got the rebrand they've got a nice big title partner now they seem to have their identity back they've got albon and signs together who are both on these multi-year signs as at least through 26 um i mean signs the last the latter half of the year was one of the better drivers on the grid i I mean, he was pushing pole oftentimes, right?

He was like, he was fighting there during qualifying. Yeah. Like, and Albon is, I think Albon is a very good, great, not great, but he's a good driver. And the pairing is great, which is important, right? They seem to work together well. Very important for Williams, I think, for where Williams is at. And they're starting to come back, which I please hope it happened, right? I want Williams to be fighting for the top again.

I want them to be a top four constructor again. top three constructor again yeah i think this duo stays in place i don't see them moving and i actually could see a world where carlos chooses to stay at williams because he likes what they're building as opposed to jumping somewhere else and you know you don't it is more cutthroat like would let's hypothesize for a second he gets offered let's just say a seat at red bull or maybe a mercedes seat would he take it you know of course money talks and opportunities talk but Also, we have seen where drivers make jumps that they think are going to be fruitful

and then it ends up being the worst decision of their life. Lewis Hamilton, Daniel Ricciardo, Fernando Alonso. To an extent, you have Sebastian Vettel. You make these moves thinking, okay, all that glitters is gold and then it's not, right? It's fool's gold. And I like what Williams is doing.

I really, really like what Williams is doing and I really like the two of those guys together. I hope that they stay together and they just keep it's one of those stories too like for me it's a story you feel like you can follow and like they keep building right let's take Red Bull for example if you're a newer fan you may not follow Red Bull because you're like okay well there's Max and then there's like whoever they decide to put in and then they treat that second guy kind of poorly and I don't know who I'm following with Willie with they're coming back as like this underdog this punchy like hey we've been down in the dumps we have a lot of history which is really

important and now we've got these two drivers that a lot of people like like you can't hate those guys and it just gives you someone to root for right exactly so yeah i'm i i could see both of these guys sticking around past their if their contracts are end of 26 i could see them sticking on beyond that i think i i really like james vowels i've since his mercedes mercedes love him and i do think that he has put together two guys that have a lot of synergy they get along they're not like out to to trash each other it seems like it's actually a really a really nice cohesive environment they're they're they're both very likable carlos sign specifically is so marketable right the guy is is very handsome he's very well liked and he seems really happy even when

he scored that podium said this is the best podium of my life and he's won race you know so yeah for going to say that is a big deal how sweet it tasted because because it's like the little engine that could this team right and it's such a legacy legacy team so I agree with you I think both guys stay I think James Vowles would be silly not to resign them both I don't think signs will make the mistake I think he's seen too many in his cohort make the mistake of going to another team and regretting it deeply so I think he this guy's like in it and he believes in in Project Williams and yeah let's let's hold this around for a while i love that duo guess what that's the end of the list um of guys who are we're felt like we talked about everybody on the grid pretty certain out of

contract guess what one of my favorite things on earth is talking drivers and racing with you so thank you for indulging me in this episode because this is my favorite thing yeah well i mean listen it is it is very much a business and i think that the driver's contracts where they are the money that they pull and bring they carry to different teams is very important right so yeah being out of a contract and if you are a promising driver or if you have sponsorship bortoletto colapinto like they bring or they bring a region with them joe guanyu was a perfect example of that and is a great example like he just got signed with cadillac as the reserve driver he left federati and he's over at cadillac and great move for cadillac right from a business perspective you're

you've got someone who he's the chinese driver china's a market for f1 that is growing and he's the only chinese driver on the grid yeah and well he's not on the grid but he's a grid adjacent well well grid i still consider the reserve guys like on the grid because they could be bumped into service at any point and we've seen it happen it's interesting back in the day when we first started watching f1 i feel like there was more like broken wrists and ankles like the reserve drivers now they're so safe that now it's like you have to burst an appendix in order for someone to you know fill a seat but and even then science is back a week later the poor guy's like give me a chance in the car yeah science is hobbling back into the paddock with you know they just such a

hunger but yeah exactly the contracts are part of the economy because also if you can get in on a guy like like Bortoletto you get him cheap as they say and and you lock him in at a really good rate plus all the millions he brings in sponsorship and he performs a whole team, that's such a smart business decision, right? So yeah, the contracts are a very important part of the business ecosystem of racing. And we talk about it all the time with our guests too on the show, like what's more important and, or maybe not even what's more important, but what is the percentage now that you have to weigh a driver's performance versus their marketability, the money they bring in, the audience they can bring in and it is a real shift i mean i'm not gonna and we see it we

actually see it so we don't even need to really ask that question the product of the grid tells you what that answer is when you see drivers that are in seats simply because they bring money and this is nothing new for motorsport so for those of you that are newer to motorsport newsflash there's money is is huge and remember we used to call them paid drivers they don't use that But that was the term for decade paid driver. But you have drivers in the grid right now that could be considered that. Yes. Right.

And no shade. It is what it is. We can name the fleet today, actually. Of course. And so I think that's really, really crucial to the conversation to understand the economics behind what you can do. We talked about it with Connor Daly in the first episode of this season. and he said you know he talks about how much money you need to race in these series how if you don't have the money you like it's even hard to even go to a team to say like hey

i would you know to give me a seat so and that's you know that's indycar but can you imagine what it's like in formula one there's other series weck all these other series where you do you have to bring something to the table and if you can't bring which i talked to um i ran into tony Breidinger, who races in NASCAR, ran her in Vegas. Same thing. She's like, yeah, I got to bring all this money to the table. That's why she does all of the other stuff on the side. Her modeling career has taken off because maybe she can't build up enough dollars for the seat. It's like that everywhere. So if you're new to motorsports, that is probably one of the biggest hurdles for drivers anyway. So I think this is a fascinating conversation. And I'm with you. I like talking

about it and silly season is probably one of the best parts of the season on the business side because we'll have to bounce around we'll do a follow-up episode to this later when silly season actually starts we'll see we'll see which of our takes were right perfect i like it thank you for listening everyone see you on the next one ciao