Call Me Back - with Dan Senor - Israel’s Next Government - with Yaakov Katz

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

Yaakov Katz – Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post and a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – returns to our podcast. Earlier, Yaakov Katz served as The Jerusalem Post’s military reporter and defense analyst. He is the author of "Shadow Strike: Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power" and co-author of two books: "Weapon Wizards - How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower" and "Israel vs. Iran - The Shadow War" "Shadow Strike: Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power" – shorturl.at/adioS "Weapon Wizards - How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower" - shorturl.at/fhIJ3

In a future election, it's a one-man show. Yair Lapid today is the unequivocal leader of the center-left bloc, and basically of the largest party. He brought Ye Shatid, his party, up from 19 to 24 seats. He grew in a significant way. And whenever the next election will take place, he'll be able to say, look, it's me against Bibi. Forget about the small parties.

Now it's just about me. So finally, Israel has what appears to be a stable government. After five elections in 44 months, it looks like there will not be a sixth election around the corner. That's the good news, although there are a lot of questions about some of the political figures that will be populating it who have a history of some pretty inflammatory rhetoric and actions. We'll dive into this issue as well as what it means for Netanyahu's ability to manage his new government and what are the geopolitical issues he's going to have to deal with and all these considerations he's going to have to balance

from Iran to Russia-Ukraine to his relationship with Washington to his relationships with the broader Arab world and continued normalization. To help us understand these issues, we are joined by Yaakov Katz, editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, who's been on this podcast before. Before becoming editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, who's been on this podcast before. Before becoming editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, Yaakov served as the paper's military reporter and defense analyst. He's the author of Shadow Strike, Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power. And he's the co-author of two books, Weapon Wizards, How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower, and Israel vs. Iran, The Shadow War.

Earlier in his career, Yaakov was a top advisor to Naftali Bennett, who until recently was the prime minister of Israel. This is Call Me Back. And I am pleased to welcome back to the podcast my friend Yaakov Katz, editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, who comes to us from Jerusalem after, I'm sure, a lot of sleepless nights. He's been working around the clock. JPost.com has been covering this election and the post-election intensely. Yaakov, thanks for being here. Great to be with you, Dan.

Okay, so we have a lot to cover. Let's start with what, in your view, is the biggest story or the biggest surprise coming out of this election? Well, I think there are two main stories here. The first is Benjamin Netanyahu had an amazing comeback. He's the comeback kid, right? He's been out now for 18 months. Israel has been through, this is the fifth election in the last three and a half years. He failed each time, each previous election to get to the needed 61 seats to have a majority coalition in parliament in the Knesset. And he pulled it off and he pulled it off against a lot of odds and a lot of people who were out to get him.

And that has to be said. This is a big win for him, right? 64 majority is big. People thought it might be 60-60. People said maybe he'll get to 61. No pollster predicted this outcome, and it's big. And that has to be said, and he's going to be coming in with strength. The other big story... And it should be noted before the election, when there was a big question,

would it be 60, would it be 61, would it be 59? I mean, I was in Israel a little over a week ago, and people were talking as though it were a realistic option before the election, that Netanyahu may have to form a national unity government, that nothing yet who may have to form a national unity government that nothing yet would have to form a government with some version of gantz and lapid and that that that's how that i'm just making i mean just to put an exclamation point after your point it's like that's how the degree to which people had not foreseen this or then we were going to go to a sixth election. People were talking about how this is the gateway to the sixth election, right? So no one expected such a big win for Bibi. And this joins, this connects to the next part, which is the big story, which is,

you know, there's Itamar Ben-Gvir, which a big spotlight has been put on this guy as the firebrand kind of far right member of the potential Netanyahu government. But let's also just put into context, this is going to be the most right-wing government in Israeli history. This is going to be the most religious government in Israeli history. There are 18, 19 seats of the ultra-Orthodox. You add to it the 14 seats of the religious Zionist Smutrich-Ben-Gur party, that is 32 seats of religious people in a coalition. They are the majority of this coalition. And that says something about just if you are a secular Israeli today in this country,

you're probably a bit concerned right now. And I want to get to this. We will get to this. We were talking about it earlier. We'll get to it in this conversation. The fact that it is, this new government is populated by leaders so ideologically in this direction does not necessarily mean that's where the electorate is, right it's also hiccups in the in the um electoral system okay so bb's comeback is the big story uh ben gvir and the rise of ben gvir and can you just explain a little bit about the rise of

ben gvir because this is a guy who in recent elections there was always a question about whether or not they'd even he'd even meet the threshold to get into the Knesset. So he's gone from, you know, not that long ago, a total gadfly to a kingmaker. Yeah, look, Ben Gvere was someone who for many years didn't make it into the Knesset. He's a rabble rouser. He's a guy, I've known him, Dan, for over 20 years. I've known him from right-wing demonstrations, from during the Gaza Strip disengagement. He was the guy who you would call as a reporter to find out, okay, where are people going to be protesting tonight?

Where are people going to be doing something a bit nuts and crazy? That was what this guy was. And, you know, he's a jovial character. He's fun. He's got a good personality. But he's a right-wing extremist. I mean, you know, put it into its proper context and and explain what that means what do you mean basically what that means is because because by the way in the west the term israeli right-wing extremist

is thrown around a lot before being right i mean right 1977 manachem bagan is elected prime minister first time likud takes you know power in in Israel of the cover of Time magazine trouble in the promised land you know and they made turned Begin into this oh my god right Israel is completely set back obviously when Sharon came back to power this was it was also treated like this was a this was you know he was gonna be a wrecking ball in the Middle East Avigdor Lieberman've talked about uh former foreign minister foreign defense minister he's the finance minister right in the current government uh yeah and he uh you know he was he was he ran

on you know loyalty tests for israeli arab citizens and you know the death penalty for terrorists and which is just not the policy in Israel, and positions that were viewed as very inflammatory, regardless of, you know, whether or not he actually believed these things. He ran on these issues, and then, you know, within three years of Begin getting elected, Israel had a peace deal with Egypt. You know, Ariel Sharon was the prime minister that pulled Israel out of Gaza. Avigdor

Lieberman has now become oppositional to Netanyahu and not from the right. So the term right-wing Yeah, well, no, no, but the term right-wing Israeli has kind of been thrown around for a long time

and then it doesn't always stick the way it's initially characterized. So I just want to put Ben-Gvir in that historical context. Now, look, unless Ben-Gvir makes a dramatic shift and changes in a huge 180, what I mean by that term is he is someone who all the people you mentioned before, they do believe to an extent in coexistence. They believe in some sort of resolution to the conflict that Israel still has with the Palestinian people. Ben-Gvir talks about something much simpler, which is we need to restore deterrence. We need to scare them. They need to have the fear of God and of the Jewish people and the state of Israel in them. He need to have the fear of God and of the Jewish people and the state of Israel in them. He has a different vision for what that looks like. He wants to,

and he openly says this, right? He said this in an interview just a couple of weeks ago, right before the election, where he said, I want to establish in the new government, a ministry of migration. I want to find a way to get Palestinian Arabs in Israel and in the West Bank, Judea and Samaria, to move outside of Israel. And he was asked, what does that mean? Where would they go? Who would take them? He said, well, Europe needs, and the term in Hebrew, so I'll just translate, he said, Europe needs working hands. And I'm watching this on TV, and I'm saying to myself, working hands in Europe? Like, was it not that long ago that we were told as the Jewish people that we need to go

work somewhere in Europe? You know, and the silence that you hear is what has legitimized this type of rhetoric. And it's a different level, Dan. It's not Begin. It's not Sharon. And you know, what's funny is when I say to people, Bibi is going to be the most left-wing member of this government, they think it's crazy because to them, Bibi is so right-wing, but he's actually not. And Ben-Fur is the real deal. He's not. Bibi's very practical. Exactly. Bibi, yeah. This idea that Bibi's an ideologue, I've always found like laughable. There's not, how can you say, I mean, he's the longest serving prime minister in Israeli history, so he has, Netanyahu has this very clear track record to look at, how he deals with crisis after crisis after

crisis, geopolitical crises, domestic political crises. I mean, you can dislike Bibi, you can have issues with a whole range of issues around Bibi, but the idea that he's some adventuristic you know bomb throwing ideologue is just inconsistent with the record he's actually pretty moderate he's moderate he's hesitant to use force he said multiple i mean another thing that people for you know they think like he's you know the greater israel again he just wants the acute the so-called occupation he wants to occupy the palestinian people all that kind of stuff the guy has had numerous opportunities to pass the legislation in the Knesset with a majority

that would allow him to annex and apply Israeli law to the West Bank. And he's never done it. And the reason is because he doesn't want to do it, because ultimately he wants some sort of resolution that sees Israel not have to be in control of millions of Palestinian Arabs. That's not what Netanyahu wants. This government, though, and this is where I think we need to, you know, kind of be maybe slightly concerned, is a different animal right now. This is a new government where,

because of how right-wing it is, and because of Netanyahu's political, I'm sorry, legal situation, he's still on trial for fraud, breach of trust, and corruption. This is where it gets complicated because he's going to want potentially legislation that will help his trial, and the other members of this government are going to want some sort of benefit on their side, and that could come in the way of annexation, in the way of undermining the rule of law, undermining the courts, changing the balance of separation of powers in this country. There's a lot that these guys could potentially go for.

Okay. Can you briefly describe Netanyahu's, where his legal process stands? Because you referenced it and it obviously is a factor in all his decision making here. Look, Netanyahu's trial is still continuing. They've heard a lot of the testimony already in the case of 4,000, which is, there's three cases, 1,000, 2,000, and 4,000. 4,000 is the bribery charge, the one that involved potential regulatory benefits to merge a telecommunications company and a satellite TV company, Yes and Bezekek a bunch of years ago in exchange for positive coverage and what was known as wallah that's this very popular uh israeli hebrew web news website um they finished the testimony on that they're hearing testimony and evidence now

in case 1000 which is the gift the graft probe um that's one where he got hundreds and hundreds of thousands of shekels and dollars i guess of champagne and cigars and jewelry from different businessmen, particularly to Arnon Milchan and James Packer. And Case 2000 is still out there. That's the one where he potentially, he allegedly kind of engaged in a maybe bribery scheme with the publisher of Yediot HaHronot, another very large Hebrew newspaper in this country. So there's still some time. It's rolling along. It's going to take time. There's a lot of evidence, a lot of witnesses, but it's a thorn in Netanyahu's side, right? And he, I mean, you know, three cases, severe corruption charges. He would love to be able to find a way to get this thing to go away, right? And he might use this coalition to do that. So how does one do that?

Look, there's something that we call in Hebrew, chokatzor fatih, the French law, right? What is the French law? There's a lot of French laws. But the French law is that the French have a law that you can't investigate a prime minister while in office for alleged corruption charges that took place while that politician is in office. So Israel does not have a law like that, and therefore you can be prime minister, and you can come under investigation. We all know, Dan, I mean, you know as well as I do,

all of our prime ministers pretty much have been under investigation in the last 20 years or so. And Ehud Omer went to jail. And Ehud Omer eventually went to jail. His crimes, though, were crimes that were committed before he became prime minister, when he was mayor of Jerusalem. So they could pass that law, and that law could potentially also go retroactive, and it could then force the prosecution to stop the trial. Now, he has said repeatedly during the campaign, Netanyahu, that he wouldn't allow any legal changes. Correct. Or new laws passed that would affect him that would be retroactive.

But some people believe that was just, you know. Well, he said he wouldn't going to bring that type of legislation. He's also going to bring another very controversial bill, which is to basically annul the charge or the crime of breach of trust and fraud from political corruption. So basically, in the middle of a political corruption trial, the legislator would change the law, say this is no longer a crime, so what does the court do? They can't continue a trial. Even if they say it's not retroactive, there's no crime to have a court case about. So it would just leave case 4000, which is anyhow perceived to be maybe a a a case that has some holes in it um basically i i don't and it's the slowest moving one correct and i and

that's the slowest move and i also don't think that nittanyahu if these guys bring this legislation i don't think he's gonna say no i don't want it right of course he's gonna want it because it would benefit him right right okay so so bringing these political leaders into the fold you know is is helpful to him on the legal front but he's an adult he's a is a long history uh and long track record of as i said earlier uh as experiences as a as a as a senior statesman as a geopolitical strategist and he's got now he's now back in the seat he's no longer in the opposition so he's got to manage a lot of big problems he's got to deal with iran right he's got to figure out you know what israel's strategy is vis-a-vis gaza he's got to deal with russia ukraine uh and obviously he's gonna have to deal with washington

and he's gonna have to deal with thesehington and he's gonna have to deal with these gulf states that he put so much effort into normalizing relations with so how does how does he hold this all together he's got a man because because you've said he used to be the most you know or for the first he used to be in between the left and the right in his coalitions right and now he's actually the most left-wing member of his coalition for the first time. So he's going to have to manage those internal dynamics where there's huge pressure from the right while he's dealing with all these real prime ministerial jobs in his day job of dealing with the world. It's not going to be an easy juggling act. And I would say this is not

the government that Netanyahu would have ideally wanted right he would have wanted a government he can have someone who looks good who's moderate who could go and be the face of israel to washington you know he's had a barack in the government before it's sippy livni he likes to have those kind of figures next to him because they balance it out and he's always he's got it's like a fig leaf to to the rest of to the west so-called right into democratic administrations which is what we have so just just just our listeners so so ehud barak former prime minister of israel in the late 90s actually beat netanyahu right uh in 99 99 yeah 1999 and was leader of the labor party and then netanyahu comes back to power close to a decade after losing to

Barack, and he makes Barack defense minister and brings him into the government. So to your point, it really was a, not bipartisan, multi-partisan coalition government, and he had someone perceived as to the left of him as his defense minister. Tzipi Livni was a player in the Kad the kadima party the moderate party also very at the time oppositional to likud and he had her in the coalition so he's always liked having a blend of this kind of hard right right and left in the government and you're saying now he he's always had that and he now he doesn't have that so so it's gonna it's to make things difficult for him. And, you know, like, who do you send to talk to Blinken? Who do you send to talk to Jake Sullivan?

Who do you send to Europe, right? When the Americans and the Europeans are going to be asking Israel about the Palestinians, what do you say? There's no one in government who is of the moderate kind of cloth, right? That you could say, no, we're actually, you know, yeah, we have disagreements. No, there's no disagreements. Everyone's pushing you in one direction. And, and, and that's going to put a pressure on him, by the way. I mean, you know, the Palestinians are not saying this publicly, but they're not, they're not upset about this government, even though it's so right wing, because for them until now, because

it's always been a government in Israel that kind of plays the game, maybe, from their perspective and says the right thing, but doesn't maybe act on it enough for the Palestinians, but it's good enough for Washington, it's good enough for London, it's good enough for Paris, the Palestinians are kind of in a weaker position. But today, with this such a right-wing government, the Palestinians will be able to say, look, we've told you, these guys are not a peace partner. And Israel has always been able to say, no, we are the partner.

We want peace. Our hand is stretched out. Netanyahu won't be able to do that today. What's he going to be able to say? I'm in favor of a two-state solution with Itamar Ben-Gavir and Bensal Smatrich and his government. He's not going to be able to say that.

Right, he could never deliver the equivalent of the Bar-Ilan speech in this environment. Never again. And that is going to be something the equivalent of the bari lan speech never again and and and that is going to be something that by the way this is what the people of israel chose and if the people and the majority of israel asked for this government so if this government decides for example and they will have the ability dan to pass legislation to apply israeli law and annex the west bank and judean samaria and the israeli settlements if that's what they want to do because

it's just a matter of legislation in the is Knesset. The world won't accept it, but Israel could do it. I don't know if Netanyahu will. These guys will want to, but what's going to stop, what is Israel going to be able to say to the world today? No, we want peace. How? In what way how so i mean netanyahu could say to ben vir and smoltrich this is a powder keg if you do this this is explosive uh so i know you can do it but we actually can't do it i mean look that's that's my operating assumption of where he's gonna be am i wrong netanyahu i've heard from politicians who have been in his governments in the past, he has this shtick that he does.

And you've been in the prime minister's office, you've seen he's got that big map up on the wall of the region. And he'll bring in a young Knesset member or politician who's a bit kind of off the path and he'll sit them down and show them the map and he'll share with them some intelligence about Iran's nuclear program or Hezbollah trying to get its hands on precision guided munitions.

And he'll say, listen, we can't rock the boat now with the Americans. I'm doing something big right now. I'm trying to ensure that we stop this or we stop that. And if you guys do something, you push me too far on the legal outposts or whatever, it could blow that up. And it's worked for him in the past. Will that work with these guys? I don't know, because they're a little different, these guys. Right. And in terms of Ben-Gvir, he's wanted to change the status quo on the Temple Mount. That's something he's advocated for. Can you explain what that means?

Look, Ben-Gvir is a frequent visitor to the Temple Mount, right? Now, the Temple Mount, which Israel liberated or conquered, depending on what language you want to use, back in 1967, the holiest site to the Jewish people is a site that's very contentious because of the fact that the Palestinians, they have the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Dome of the Rock there. It's controlled mainly by the Waqf, which is under the jurisdiction of the Jordanian Hashemite kingdom. But Israel for many years has never really allowed Jews to pray there. It's a visit. You can walk in certain areas, but you can't really pray there. In recent years, they've allowed some form of prayer, nothing with, you can't wear the talit, you can't put

on the tefillin, phylacteries or anything like that. You can't blow a shofar on the Temple Mount, you know, the horns ram that we blow on the new year of Rosh Hashanah, but you can do some sort of very kind of quiet prayer. Ben-Gvir wants to build a synagogue there, right? Now, I mean, it's a different, look, in principle, he's right. You know, it's crazy that Jewish people can't pray in their holiest site in their own country. On the other hand, we do have to be realistic and practical. Doing something like that could lead to a massive conflict between Israel and the Muslim world. I don't think we want that. So we have to walk a very delicate balancing act. And Ben-Gvir, he's not of the diplomatic kind right he doesn't care for that he cares for what his party's name is it's my yahoodit jewish power that's what this is all about i want to get to a couple of the other big problems nothing yet who's

going to have to deal with his prime minister while he's managing all this the you know i mentioned iran and russia ukraine and broader relations in the Middle East. But before I do that, I just want to get to just a couple more analytical points about the outcome of these elections. I think it's important to point out that Likud actually, Likud, not the whole right-wing bloc, Likud didn't do that much better in this election

than in the last election. It got about, I was looking at the numbers in this election than in the last election. It got about, I was looking at the numbers, something like in the last election, I think they got one million, Likud got one, which is 2021, 1,066,000 votes. And this election, it's about the same, maybe even a little worse. Right. It's even more than that. If you look at the block that Netanyahu has, which included the ultra-Orthodox parties of United Torah Judaism and Shas and the religious left block of yar lapid the current and now outgoing prime minister got about 2065 two million sorry and 65 000 votes so explain how is it that they lost so big of just a difference of 5 000 votes but the way it works here so basically like something that's like a 0.3 percent difference from the last election to this election and you're

talking about the difference between 52 seats was right 54 yeah yeah their block is about yeah so so 54 or 5 and and the other guys are you know 64 and how did they lose in such a big way and and and the reason is because bb knows how to arrange and organize his block right so he worked very hard to get Smutrich and Ben-Gvir to merge their parties. He worked very hard to keep united Torah Judaism together. It's also made up of two different factions. But explain why that's so important. Can you just explain? We've talked about this on this podcast, but just to refresh listeners.

Because the way it works in Israel, it's a different system here. To cross the threshold and get into the Knesset, you have to get 3.25% of the entire vote. So if a million people vote, right? And in this case, we had about 5,000, 5 million, five and a half, 6 million people who voted. You need to get 3.25% just to make it into the Knesset. That's the bare's the bare minimum if you don't get that you're out and all those votes go to waste so in the case of for example what happened with the so there's never so there's something like 40 parties that are actually running most of those parties are just one and two man shows and they'll never get into the knesset because even if they got one percent of the vote it's not enough it's not enough. Even if they get 3.24% of the vote, which would be the equivalent of, just numerically would be the equivalent of getting north of three Knesset seats.

Sorry, not enough. You went from being eligible for three Knesset seats to getting zero Knesset seats, and that say 150,000 voters had voted for you, their votes are now completely wasted. And that is, Dan, exactly what happened to the Merritt merits got about 150 000 votes and merits just just for our listeners is a is a party that's the long-standing party far way on the left correct and and they it was assumed they would they would play a role in a lapid ledof-center block government that some of these smaller right parties are playing in the Netanyahu block, that was part of Lapid's calculations, that he would have these smaller parties.

And what you're saying, Yakov, is Meretz didn't meet the threshold, so all those voters who would have been fine with Lapid as prime minister, and certainly are hostile to the ideas of Netanyahu as prime minister, their votes are gone, wasted. Gone and mean nothing. And therefore, what also happens because of the system, because it's always percentages, it's like a kind of a seesaw, right? So if you have, if you lose 150,000 votes on the left, effectively what that is, is it means that the piece of pie on the right is going to be worth a lot more because they're now, they got votes, their votes out of the bigger

pie is more. And therefore it's going to be worth more and it's going to translate into more seats because suddenly the whole pie became much smaller because you just cut out 150,000 votes. And it's not just there. It was also the Arab parties. There used to be a joint list. They split ahead of the last election, and that's how we got Mansour Abbas, who was the head of the Ram party that joined the Lapid Bennett government,

but there was still a flank that did not. They then split, that flank split into two. So you had three Arab parties that were running. One of them, Balad, also lost and didn't cross. And there went another 70,000, 80,000 votes. So altogether, and I'm not sure that Lapid could have maneuvered the Arabs the way that Bibi was able to maneuver the ultra-Orthodox, but he tried to get labor and merits to merge. He brought Merav Micheli, the head of labor, to his office together with brought Merav Micheli, the head of labor, to his office,

together with Zahava Galon, the head of merits. And Zahava Galon was in favor. She wanted to do it. She was ready to become number two. I didn't know that. So the head of merits was willing to merge. She was willing to merge. She recognized the threat and the potential loss.

And just so you know, this is the key. If you get these smaller parties to merge, then none of them, or the ones that merge at least will not fall under the threshold because all their votes get consolidated. So guarantees those votes don't go to waste. That is why, I mean, Netanyahu was clever in anticipating this and got these smaller right wing parties to merge and it's it's it's to the extent dan that i heard one analysis which which i'm not a math guy so i can't i you know i can't check it but that had merits and labor merged and had balad the third of the error parties not run separate you would have a situation right now where in the best case scenario for netanyahu it would be60, or even it would be 60 to the center-left and 59 to Netanyahu. And that would be a completely, completely different ballgame.

So really, at the end, you can point a finger at Meir Avmicheli, the leader of labor, for saying, why did you refuse that merger? I mean, it's all could have, would have, should have, but this has real-life consequences, definitely for people who are center left voters. Okay, so I want to get to Lapid, where he goes from here. But before we do that, you mentioned the Rom party, Mansour Abbas. So his significance, first Arab party to join an Israeli government and take on a role in a very important way uh for to in this current israeli government uh he it's a he leads an islamist party uh i actually know him a little bit he's pretty pretty interesting guy uh how did they do they did better this time

right they got they yeah they got to five seats They went up one, which to an extent says that maybe his experiment of joining with the government and entering into coalition to get budgets to help advance his people and his constituents. And get resources to his communities, to the Arab community. That's what his message was. His message was the Palestinian issue, which we Arab Knesset members have always been fighting for. That's important. But I have to worry about my Israeli Arab voters and my Israeli Arab residents. And that was the big kind of news that he came with. And it paid off for him. And he got extra votes and he actually increased in power.

By the way, he could be, I mean, he's a potential partner, right, even for a right-wing government, because he, Bibi had flirted with him back ahead after the last election in 2021 although smutrich and ben gvir would not allow him to enter into a government but but also to be clear he's different than how some of the other arab political parties have played in israel over the years and that he says israel is a jewish state we can we as a community can live in a jewish state i'm not he doesn't he doesn't he doesn't his political existence is not in in you know is not adversarial to the designism or the recognition of the jewish state he's israel's a jewish state it was a democracy i want to play in this democracy

i gotta i gotta work to get resources and security and the rest to my community and i do it's better for me to be doing that from inside the government than the outside yeah i can tell you that when when when that was happening in the beginning, when he kind of after the last election, and then in May of 2021, when there was that big Oz operation that saw riots in mixed Arab cities, and he went to one synagogue in load in the city of load, which had been burned. And he said, we'll help rebuild it. This was Mansour boss. I remember speaking with enough telly Bennett. This was before he became prime minister. And he was saying, I don't understand how this guy is still alive. Like, how are they not killing him? Right. He needs 24 seven security. Uh, it was, it was

really, it was, it was amazing moment in Israeli history to, to kind of see this type of Arab politician who wants to work together with the Jewish people and, and, and Jews who wanted to work together with the Arabs. Right Jews who wanted to work together with the Arabs, right? And now, unfortunately, I mean, I say this, you know, kind of my personal, unfortunately, that's being thrown to the side right now. And that's an unfortunate consequence. Yair Lapid.

Yes. So my impression was that he, my initial impression was that he came out of this much this election much weaker because he wasn't able to engineer these mergers on the on the left the way Netanyahu had engineered mediated mergers on the right and that there would be enormous backlash against him which would hamper his ability to be an effective leader of the opposition. But you actually think he comes out of this stronger? Look, he failed to an extent. There's no question.

He lost this election. He's conceded already. He failed to align the block in the way that Netanyahu did to preserve every vote. But on the other hand, I think that a loss is not the worst thing for him because what it does now, merits is out of the picture. Labor is down to four seats. In a future election, it's a one-man show. Yair Lapid today is the unequivocal, the one-man leader of the center-left bloc and basically of the largest party. He brought Yesha Tide, his party, up from 19 to 24 seats. He grew in a

significant way. And that's something that he'll be able to ride to whenever the next election will take place. He'll be able to say, look, it's me against Bibi. Forget about the small parties. Now it's just about me. And that will be able to get all these merits voters and all these labor voters to ditch their

small parties, potentially, throw their support behind him, and maybe grow him to become the biggest party in israel where does this leave benny gantz who current defense minister who from what i understand uh this you know may hate netanyahu but he truly disrespects your lapid yeah yeah that's they do not like each other too much um that's that's an understatement but benny gantz right now is um someone who is definitely not happy with these results he is the first target for netanyahu as someone who could potentially enter the coalition and maybe come instead of ben gvir, right? Now, it's a little complicated, right? The Americans would love to see Benny Gantz come into the coalition,

break his campaign promise not to sit with Netanyahu. He did it before. You remember, Dan, in 2020, when he came into the government because of COVID-19 and an emergency government, then Netanyahu basically tricked him and cheated him and took us to another election and didn't rotate as he had promised to do. So Benny Gantz, because of being burned once, he doesn't want, you know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice already, shame on me. So he doesn't want to have to get to that point. But it is possible, and I think the Americans are going to be putting a lot of pressure on Gantz to come in and basically save the day. And let me say just one thing about Gantz.

He really is, I don't think he's a good politician. I think he ran a terrible campaign. He fought more with Lapid than he should have fought more with Bibi to take votes. His whole thing was take votes from the right, not try to take votes within the bloc. But on the other hand, he's a true patriot. And you can't really doubt his sincerity. He really puts the country first, I think, to a large extent. And that's why, even though I think it would be, again, a betrayal of his voters if he were to decide to enter a Netanyahu government, I wouldn't put it past him. I think if he's late at night and he's thinking, what do I do? Do I let Ben-Gur take over? Or do I come in

and try to stop that? I could see him making the decision to go for it, even with the political price. And it addresses this need that Netanyahu's often had, right? It gets him someone to the left of him into his government. Exactly. Although, I do have to say, just mathematically for a moment, it's not simple. Because while Ben-Gvir and Smutrich are 14, and Benny Gantz is 12, so you say if BBR has 64, he brings in Benny Gantz instead of Smutrich and Ben Gvir. So he's not 64, he's a coalition of 62. Not a big difference, right? The problem is that Benny Gantz is not really 12. Benny Gantz is six. Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff,

and Matan Kahana, who used to be with Bennettennett are two free agents and then there's another four which belong to get on sar the former likudnik who broke away from likud ran on his own now the justice minister and now merged with serves in the nothing yeah served sorry served in the bennett lapid government correct get on sar might not go for it goddy eisenkot might not go for it so then all benkant might not go for it. So then all Benny Gantz really is a six. Six is not enough to make a difference. Got it. Okay. So now let's go through these hot spots.

Based on all these political dynamics Netanyahu has to manage, and based on your deep knowledge as an observer of Netanyahu over many years, what happens with regard to Netanyahu slash Israel on Iran? Look, the policies stay the same. They never really were different, the governments. The Lapid and Bend government, we have to say, did a good job in stopping the disastrous return to the JCPOA to the 2015 nuclear deals the Biden administration really initially wanted to do. They had a very good dialogue with the Biden folks, and they were able to do it without escalating, without getting things to blow up on the Israeli-U.S. relationship. So really, hats off to them on that. Netanyahu, of course, wanted the same outcome. I don't know that he would have gone about it the same way, but his tactic might have been different. But the outcome

is good for him too. And we're going to see a continuation of that policy, right? I think that Netanyahu, of course, does not want an Iran deal. And he's going to work with the administration very carefully on that. The one difference I would expect is just in kind of the tone of the way he works with Biden and the Democrats, right? We all remember how he was with Barack Obama, how he was around the Iran issue with Barack Obama. It was a very tense moment in Israeli-U.S. history and in the history of our joint shared relationship, which is of such critical importance, I think definitely to Israel, but also to the United States. Netanyahu, it'll be interesting to see whether he's coming in as kind of, you know, to appease, to get along, to be kind of a convenient partner, or does he want to fight a bit?

And I think the Biden folks are a bit concerned what exactly they got waiting for them. How does Netanyahu manage Russia, Ukraine, and does he do anything different from the current Bennett-Lapid government or Lapid-Bennett government? Again, I don't think so. I think the policies, and this is, you know, Dan, it touches on a bigger question.

So what's, you know, someone could say, so Yakov, what's the difference between these guys? And the honest answer is that there's not a big difference. Right, and policy. By the way, I try to make this point to American audiences all the time. I had to give a talk yesterday. difference between these guys and and the honest answer is that there's not a big difference right and policy by the way i try to make this point to american audiences all the time i had to give a talk yesterday i try to make this point on the major issues there's basically a consensus in israeli politics so people think israeli politics is so polarized it it is in a sense but not necessarily around these big issues it's polarized around figures figures like Bibi, anti-Bibi, pro-Bibi.

People have very strong views. But on Iran, Russia, Ukraine, there's not much of a difference. I gave a talk also the other night, the day after the election, to a group of American, actually pastors who were visiting Israel. And they were asking about Iran. And I explained to them, and they said, but we don't understand. It's the most important issue. How is there not a policy difference?

And I said, because we don't understand. It's the most important issue. How is there not a policy difference? And I said, because there just, there isn't. Everyone kind of agrees and sees things the same way. So in Russia, Ukraine, look, Netanyahu has always had a good relationship with Putin. He's had a good relationship with Zelensky. Will he be the guy who supplies and delivers weapons to the Ukrainians as they've been practically begging Israel to do? I don't know, because ultimately he also recognizes he was the man who built the deconfliction mechanism that has worked so well for Israel in Syria with the Russians, because the Russians control Syria, that has allowed Israel to continue to take out Iranian targets in Syria over the last few years. Is he going to be the one who's going to throw that to the side to be able to give Ukraine some missile defense systems, as they ask?

I don't think so. He's always been cautious on those issues. And he's always been very careful not to rock the boat, not to turn Putin into an enemy, not to turn anyone else into an enemy, not China, not America. I don't see him changing anything too dramatic there. Last question, and then we'll let you go, because I know we're bumping up against Shabbat where you are. Continued normalization in the Middle East between Israel and basically the Sunni Gulf nations.

Netanyahu played a key role in normalization with the Emiratis, with the Bahrainis, and other kind of Morocco. Not with the Emiratis, with the Bahrainis, and other kind of Morocco. Yeah. Not in the Sunni Gulf, but obviously the big prize is Saudi Arabia. That, I think, will take some time, but I think it's on a trajectory. So I have two reactions.

I've always been struck when I talk to Gulf leaders, Sunni Gulf leaders, that they all like Netanyahu. They all thought he was the man who took it to Washington and, you know, to tear down the Iran deal and do things like give an address to the joint session of Congress criticizing the foreign policy priority of a sitting American administration. These are things these golf countries could never do. And they were sort of in awe that Netanyahu could do this and they rallied behind him so in a sense there's a there's a strength aspect kind of putting israel on the map that they partnered with and wanted to piggyback onto on the other hand i got to believe netanyahu's

pressures from the right the ben viran smoltrich pressures on issues related to arab rights and palestinian future the palestinian Palestinian issue in Israel's backyard is going to create problems for these Arab countries. So where do you see Netanyahu taking the normalization campaign? Look, it'll be hard to imagine right now that with this type of coalition, Israel will be able to normalize relations with additional countries. Because of Smoltrich and Ben-Burer's presence in the coalition, and no progress and no movement and no kind of gift that Israel, fig leaf that Israel can give to, or olive branch to anything on the Palestinians. I don't see how the Saudis can come. I don't see anyone else can come. On the other hand, what we also have to keep in mind, Dan, and you know this better than I do, is that the Americans have played an extremely important role. And without an active American role in bringing

the sides together, it's not just going to happen on its own, right? So people ask me all the time, why aren't the Saudis normalizing relations? And I say to them, look, they could potentially, but you would need Biden to get really deep involved, really deeply involved, to give something that the Saudis would want, to get them to come together. We haven't seen that kind of action by this administration in the same way that the Trump administration did it. And again, yes, I think a bit of criticism on my part of them, but I also, it's just not important to them like it was, for example, for the Trump folks. So I don't know that we can expect much to move. And by the way, it's an interesting criticism and question of we're two years now after the normalization of ties between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain and Morocco.

How come no more countries have come yet, right? And that says something about the U.S. involvement in all of it. And maybe, as you say, also, you know, kind of if nothing's going to move on the Palestinians, why would anyone else come? So I think we'll have to suffice with what we have for now, which is not a little, but don't expect any big moves. And to be fair, I mean, I'm critical of a lot of what the Biden administration does in foreign policy, and I do think they could have made

normalization and the kind of fall-on to the Abraham Accords more of a priority, but the Saudis have made some concessions that are, you know, I mean... We can fly over Saudi Arabia. That's true. Yeah, so there have been some positive steps. Yaakov, we'll leave it there.

You've been very generous with your time. I hope you get to relax over Shabbat. By the way, that's the silver lining, Dan, of this government. I say to people, even those who are upset, and there's a lot of people who are upset and worried, the silver lining is they will have a government and we just won't have another election in just a few months. Thank God for that, right? That's got to be worth something. is they will have a government and we just won't have another election in just a few months thank god for that right that's got to be worth something and maybe during that time we can all

ponder what reforms the israeli electoral system needs uh to get out of the situation where israel has five elections in 44 months but as i keep pointing out not as bad as some other countries the brits have had five prime ministers in seven years. You guys have only had three prime ministers in seven years. So by that comparison, your democracy looks healthy and smooth running. Okay, Yaakov, thanks again. Thank you, Dan. Look forward to having you back. That's our show for today. To keep up with with Yaakov you can follow him on twitter at Yaakov Katz

y-a-a-k-o-v-k-a-t-z you can also of course follow all his work at jpost.com and you can order all of his books all of which I highly recommend at your favorite independent bookstore or at Barnes and Noble or that e-commerce site. I don't know. I'm hearing less and less about it these days, but I think they call it Amazon. Call Me Back is produced by Lon Benatar. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor.