Call Me Back - with Dan Senor - Mike Murphy on the 2024 presidential primaries

Episode Date: February 13, 2023

In this episode, we go deep on 2024 presidential primaries with Mike Murphy, who has worked on 26 gubernatorial and US Senate races across the country. Murphy was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. He’s a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He’s co-host of the critically acclaimed "Hacks on Tap" podcast. Mike is also co-director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Political Future. Articles we discuss in this episode: “Biden is as good as it gets for the Democrats”, by Michael Brendan Dougherty: https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/01/bidens-as-good-as-it-gets-for-democrats/ “Biden's State of the Union Was a Feisty Return to '90s Politics. Republicans Should Be Afraid,” by Josh Barro: https://www.joshbarro.com/p/bidens-state-of-the-union-was-a-feisty

Running for president is like going through 10,000 car washes. And very few of these candidates we talk about have been through more than 20 car washes. So we just don't know enough to really know, though there are smart guesses you can make. And I think a younger generational non-socialist Democrat would probably beat Trump. I think almost any Democrat, frankly, could beat Trump. But again, I don't even think he'll be the nominee. Was President Biden's State of the Union address last week the unofficial launch of his presidential campaign? What can we learn about how he will run for president based on that speech? And what do we know right now about the candidates that are

in the Republican primary already or about to get in who hope to challenge President Biden? And is there a possibility that any Democrat will challenge President Biden within the Democratic Party. Joining us, and hopefully to illuminate us, Mike Murphy returns to the podcast. As listeners know, Mike is a longtime Republican strategist. He's worked on 26 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races across the country, including 12 wins in blue states, something that's getting harder and harder to do. And he was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

He's a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He's co-host of one of my favorite political podcasts, Hacks on Tap, which if you're not a subscriber already, I highly recommend that you become one. And Mike's also co-director of the University of Southern California's Center for the Political Future. And one housekeeping note, on our next episode, we're doing a longish conversation

with historian Neil Ferguson, backed by popular demand. If you have questions for Neil, please send them in at danatunlocked.fm. That's danatunlocked.fm. That's dan at unlocked.fm. Please keep your questions for Neil to under 30 seconds. Other than that, let's get to our conversation. Mike Murphy returns to Call Me Back.

And I'm pleased to welcome back to the podcast, longtime friend, old pal going back about, oh God, almost 30 years, and fan favorite of the Call Me Back podcast, I'd say one of our top three most requested guests, Mike Murphy. Wow, I am honored, Dan, honored, honored. Who are number two and three? I'm obviously number one.

Oh, geez, now I'm going to offend a lot of people. I know, that's why I'm asking. Yeah. Okay, so there's more than three fan favorites. But I would say we get a lot of requests for Mohamed El-Aryan, the market guru and macroeconomist, for, and I hope someday,

central bank Fed chair, and Neil Ferguson, the historian. Right, right. And Mike Murphy. Great contrarian historian. Right, right. And Mike Murphy. Great contrarian historian. Well, that is a holy trinity. You know what we all have in common? And also a lot of Mike Gallagher.

A lot of Mike Gallagher. People love Mike Gallagher. Yeah, he's an up-and-comer. Well, the three of us, Ferguson and the rest, we all with one utterance move the markets. I mean, I screw up now, and'll take $1,000 off the Dow, so I'm always very careful. That's why people listen to the Call Me Back podcast

for the Mike Murphy interviews, because they just want... Short union carbide. All right, go ahead. I'm joking, of course, but listen to nothing I say. The Call Me Back podcast is not responsible for the recommendations. Okay, I want to talk about... we're going to talk about 2024, the President's State of the Union address. I want to start with, I sort of want to pick up with you on something I talked about with Maggie Haberman last week,

which is this question of how much Joe Biden and Donald Trump need each other. And I want to take each one at a time. So I want to start with Trump. So if you're Donald Trump and you look at the results from the 2020 election, okay, which I just pulled up, Biden won 306 electoral votes. Donald Trump won 232. You need 270 to win. Biden got 51.3% of the popular vote.

Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote. Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote. Biden got 81,284,000 and change votes. Trump got 74,224,000 and change votes. It's amazing that over 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020. And then you look at the state numbers, and that's the real, is Arizona, Biden won by a little over 10,000 votes. Georgia, he won by almost 12,000 votes. Pennsylvania, Biden won by 81,660 votes. Wisconsin, he won by a little over 20,000 votes. So Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, you add those up, you're talking about 120,000 votes

and change, not much. So about 120,000 votes and change, not much. So Trump is looking at that and says, while the Electoral College is a big differential, that Biden clamored him in the Electoral College, while the popular vote, Biden did well. Still, over 74 million people voted for me, Trump is thinking. And in those four states, Biden didn't win by that much. And then we just had a flip by tens of thousands of votes in a couple of places. Donald Trump would have been reelected in the middle of a pandemic when the country was living with a once-in-a-generation crisis of that scale. And even still, Trump almost won. And since then, we've had record 40-year high inflation that Biden kind of owns and a bunch of other problems, China on the march, et cetera, et cetera.

So Trump is looking at this and saying, of course I can beat Biden. If Biden is the nominee, I can win this thing. I almost won it last time. Is he right? You know, I am—we're a year out of the first primaries and stuff can happen. I mean, we all may be standing on our roofs, swatting at Chinese balloons with hockey sticks in a year. So I, you can never underestimate how dynamic politics is.

So can Trump beat Biden? Yes. Do I think he would? No. They're both incredibly vulnerable. Biden's, you know, improving his situation, but the fundamental thing that had everybody in the Democratic Party worried about him, the age is still there. It's not going away. He's going to get older. The age thing, I think, is going to be big. On the other hand, you know, depending on how inflation plays out, not tomorrow but over the next year, there could be other vulnerabilities there. Trump, meanwhile, has even more vulnerabilities.

I mean, Trump's to the point where I no longer think he's the favorite in the primaries. Okay, so let's go through those. This is like a fistfight between Stephen Hawking and Billy Barty. It's like, pick a favorite, bet your house. You know, it's a hard bet. I think they could simultaneously both lose. But I give Biden the slight edge. One thing, keep in mind, all the 10,000 in Oklahoma, you know, not Oklahoma, but 10,000 in Arizona, that's a dynamic number.

Grumpy old Republicans are dying, and they're being replaced by younger, more Democratic voters in most places. So, you know, it's a moving target, so it is not static, but it will be close because the country's so ossified. You know, it's almost party identity drives this as much as candidate. So it's an open question. They're both very vulnerable, Trump more so, I think. Can you actually, because the state you know well, it's the state you and I first met in, working on a campaign in Michigan, which Trump won in 2016. Biden won pretty decisively in 2020. And then obviously in the midterms, well, you describe what happened in Michigan in the midterms. I mean, it was up and down the ballot, a wipeout. Yeah, the Repubs got crunched again. And Michigan is probably the best example of what is now a pure

swing state that's in that short list, at least a fairly large one. So, you know, the inputs are going to be perceptions of both candidates, which can evolve, and economic pain people think or feel and perceive, which is reality in politics. And then finally, is there an external event? You know, God knows. The world is full of hotspots, and there's always a terrorist attack. There's so many other forces.

But the bottom line is both Trump and Biden have plenty of vulnerabilities. And so I think Trump's thinking, I can beat any of them, one, because he's insane. So Trump's always going to have an egocentric, at least public view of this stuff. He's thinking, I know I could beat Kamala. I think I could beat, you know, whoever you name. I'm not sure. If Biden were not to run, and it's somebody like Gretchen Whitmer, generational Democrat from the Midwest, I think she would beat on Trump like a drum. But again, running for president is like going through 10,000 car washes. And very few of these candidates we talk about have been through more than 20 car washes. So we just don't know enough to really

know, though there are smart guesses you can make. And I think a younger generational non-socialist Democrat would probably beat Trump. I think almost any Democrat, frankly, could beat Trump. Maybe not Kamala. But again, I don't even think he'll be the nominee. Question is, who could beat DeSantis or beat Pence or beat Tim Scott or whoever, or Governor Youngkin? Somebody. So I want to come to those folks in a moment. But before we do, so let's now look at this from Biden's standpoint. So there continues to be all this chatter. Yeah, Biden's running. First it was Biden's not going to run.

Then it's, yeah, he's running. He's running for now. But there's a good chance he won't be the nominee and someone, you know, he'll fall apart or someone else, someone young and dynamic. And the Democrats do have a young bench of some interesting candidates, you know, and one of them will challenge them and, you know, they'll either challenge them early or you'll have kind of like an LBJ, Eugene McCarthy situation in New Hampshire in 68 that'll change the trajectory of the race. But there was an interesting piece in National Review by Michael Brendan Doherty, and I just want to quote from it. He's making the case that Biden's the best candidate

for the Democrats. And he actually takes Biden's frailty and turns it into an advantage. I just want to quote from it. He says, Biden's obvious frailty is lack of vigor is his greatest strength. It prevents him from being a utopian or appearing like one.

It forces him to keep the implicit promise of his anti-Trump campaign, that there would be entire weeks during which most Americans don't even have to think about the president. Once the Biden administration was disabused of John Meacham's plan to turn him into a hybrid of FDR and LBJ, Biden's approval ratings started their slow march back up. A president who's no longer determined to have a historic presidency, merely a successful one, is one who isn't threatening his political opponents with historic deficits and reversals. And he goes on and on and on and says, I understand why Democrats are nervous about running such an aged and frail man for president again, but if the

alternatives are people such as Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg, well, you're going to miss Joe Biden when he's gone. So that is a contrarian take, that actually Biden's frailty and lack of vigor and kind of boringness is kind of what the country voted for when they voted for him in 2020. And if Trump is the guy back on the stage, they're going to like it again. Yeah, look, I do think Biden with his weaknesses is more likely to prevail over Trump than vice versa. I mean, the narrative for Biden was old guy going to get wiped out in the midterms. And that means a primary, you know, he's toast. Then they win the midterms because of Republican incompetence and foolishness and Trumpism. And then C.W. Rush do Biden's invincible

smooth sailing. But, you know, he's still the old guy. Now, they are running now. Some people think, of course, he's going to run. He's an incumbent. And he thinks he is the, he kind of thinks the argument from the National Review piece. He's the guy who has the biggest chance to win and protect the country from General Franco. The other theory is they're doing what they have to do if they're not sure, which is feed the puffer fish, you know, in hack world I'm in, not so much in, you know, fantasy newspaper columnists, so you read about it in three days, that Biden kind of hates the job. You know, he knows that the house guys are going to be going after Hunter and make his life hell there. He's dealing with, you know, uncivilized barbarian, blah, blah, blah. And if you back up, and I'm a conservative, I have plenty of ideological beasts with Biden, but the scorecard is pretty good of stuff he got done. Now, they're all fiscally drunk and irresponsible, but the

chips bill is good. They did a reasonable gun bill. You know, he's a lot tougher on communist Chinese balloons than Trump was. I mean, I can go down a pretty good list. Ukraine, pretty good. You know, B plus, even A minus. Well, in China, he's actually taken some of the Trump policies and actually built upon them, at least on the trade and export controls. Or the Trump staff policies. God knows what Trump actually controls. The Matt Pondcher policies. Right, right, exactly. So anyway, I'm still not convinced he's going to

run, but the conventional wisdom he is. And it is right that incumbents are very hard to primary. I mean, you look at history, a lot of Democratic presidents get, you know, primaried when they're in perceived political trouble. Jimmy Carter did. He beat Ted Kennedy, the golden name in the Democratic primary. Ford beat Reagan. So I don't think somebody can knock him off in a primary. Although I'll tell you the one thing that could be interesting, if Biden has a couple of stumbles, economy, whatever, if he's, you know, perceived to be a little weaker, the way the Dems have shuffled the primary deck, which is good for Biden, starting in South Carolina, means somebody can go get noticed

in New Hampshire running against nobody. I mean, there's real room for somebody to go get 40% of the New Hampshire primary vote, because Biden won't really campaign there. And if they hold it really early, they have kind of a crazy making of... Wait, why won't Biden campaign there? Well, Biden has a new calendar where if you go in front of South Carolina, you get no delegates. And if New Hampshire moves up, it's totally telling the DNC, the Biden, everybody to stuff it. So they've opened a trap door there, not to get any delegates, but if Biden is in trouble,

to make a huge media splash by, you know, it's kind of a callback to the old days when a president like LBJ versus McCarthy won't campaign in a primary. It's undignified. And you go there and get your 22% against, whoa, lightning bolt. So there's a little loose end there in the media narrative

if Biden is in more perceived trouble at the end of the year than he is right now. Bottom line, Trump's a loser in the general. I won't say certainly a loser, but most likely. And part of the reason is he's not the same Trump. I mean, all the bad stuff is the same, but his skills at being a demagogue and manipulating the media have declined with age and, in my view, sanity. He's not out there talking about inflation and stuff.

He's whining about how the election was stolen. He's having petty high school feuds on, you know, truth social. Trump's lost his fastball as an effective demagogue. And that'll hurt him in the primary. So it's real fatigue and you see it. When you have New York Times said that piece 60 out of the full 168, 60 RNC delegates, openly RNC members, excuse me, questioning Trump. That was like Kim Jong-il's cabinet a year ago. The great man can do now.

It's like, yeah, get the smothering pillow. Grandpa's got to go. It's changing. So I think a lot of these calculations were refighting the last heavyweight. Would Max Schmeling with heavier gloves, would he beat Joe? I think it's rearview mirror. I was involved with Dave McCormick's primary campaign in Pennsylvania, and I always struck back. Ah, that had your fingerprints on it there.

All right. I was always struck by it. He'll be back, and he won't have to wear the clown suit this time. He may run again. Look, he'll be liberated. You can see during the primary, and I'm a fan of McCormick, so I would have been for him. I mean, I was, but I don't vote there.

But you could see in some of those ads his eyes blinking, Rescue me. He had Trump come into Pennsylvania, rip his face off in a rally that was broadcast everywhere in his endorsement of Oz. And he still, he barely lost the race. So let me ask you this question. So what I was struck by in that primary, I watched it closely. Trump always seemed to have this like hard lock, at least in Pennsylvania, which is like ground zero for Trump, the Trump base, 30, 35% of the Republican vote in Pennsylvania. If you extrapolate that out, there's some version of that nationally,

not everywhere, but in large parts of the country. Coming into a presidential race with a lock on 30, 35% of a primary. Every candidate would kill for that. And the Trump people all say that. He comes in with this base. Is it, but is it a ceiling more than a floor? Yeah, I think so. And there's nothing to, it used to be 45%, by the way. Now say it's 33, give it a year of failure, it'll get to 24.

So there's a theory in a proportional, well, there's a theory in a proportional, well, there's a theory that because our thing switches, our delegate system, our allocation goes from most primaries being proportional up till March, and then they all turn winner take all. So if you're the early head of steam person, you wipe out all your opponents because they don't get any delegates for second place. Democrats are mostly proportional where you get a lot of delegates for second and third place. That's kind of the we cried when old yeller died participation trophy view of how to do it. Proves are all vicious social Darwinists. Now I've argued publicly that we ought to go to proportional in the Republican Party to let the process go longer and test the candidates more

and take away that bum rush advantage. But if Trump's 33 is down to 20 in a year, and at the current rate of decline, I think that's quite possible. And then he stumbles in an early contest or two. I think it is made out of balsa wood, not steel. Of course, there'd be a cult of personality at 10 to 12. But, you know, you look at the polls in a place like Florida, where there are two kinds of dog food on the menu. The dogs have tasted both. They go for the other dog food, Dysanus. At this early point, again. Can you do the proportionate voting? Because we've talked about that. So the Republicans nominate differently than the Democrats,

their process in the presidential, which allows a more elongated process for the Democrats. Well, the Democrat one goes on forever because it's very hard to amass delegates because the second and third place people can get delegates because they're allocated proportionally in a given primary. The Republicans switch in March to a bias toward winner-take-all, which means you come in a close second, it doesn't matter. The plurality winner at 40% of the vote gets all the delegates. So we really reward the first place finisher. The

Democrats don't. That's why the Obama-Hillary thing took seven years. It just kept going, the Guam caucus, you fight for every delegate. Our thing turns into a sudden death kind of overtime in March. Mike Bloomberg, by the way, was very competitive in Guam. That was the only place he was competitive. A lot of new Cadillacs there on the island. So, and we're not going to change. I mean, there was a window at the beginning of this year to try. And there just wasn't enough interest.

So what would have been the effect of that? The effect of that would have been that even Trump Trump with his 30-plus percent lock on the vote means that other candidates running could start accumulating delegates. Yeah, he would accumulate delegates a lot slower. And accumulating delegates slower is another catalyst to make your 30s shrink to 25 to 20 because you start being a loser. People are saying, you know, people tell you start being a loser. People are saying, you know, people tell me he's a loser. That's what I'm hearing. Very sad. And Trump, you know,

it would have helped melt Trump quicker. Now, again, the Trump people are arguing it's 2016 again and we're going to win. Well, yeah, we'll see. I think it's a lot more dynamic than that. And it's too late now to get the RNC to change these rules? Yeah, it's always hard to get these things done. I think if DeSantis had been on board and Pence and the other people who have a knuckle, with him being the flavor of the moment, it could have been done. But I think it's technically very, very hard to do now. It was really something to do in the very beginning of the year and the last year.

The process is designed to be very hard to make a late change to. So that little tweak of the system that could have been bad for Trump isn't there. But I don't think it's the one material thing. If they really want Trump, the process will deliver them. But what has changed is there are other candidates now. Nobody is intimidated. The polling shows a decline. And the media narrative on Trump is bad, even on Fox.

He's shrinking. He's a loser. You know, running in national politics is a proven loser. So let's talk about that. So the candidates that are interesting, that people are talking about, let's just, you rattle off the ones that you think are most compelling, and I know all of them really are untested. All right, but go ahead. Yeah, well, so obviously Trump, the kind of slowly rotting fish in my view, but, you know, like a whale dying on the beach, there's a lot of mass there. And he's got to be considered a tier one candidate, even with all the weaknesses, including the FEC report.

I'm sure you saw that. Where he's not raising money. Yeah. And a lot of the big super PACI donors are evaporating. I keep an eye on FlightAware because I like to see where the Ulean's plane is going. Massive donors from Wisconsin. And it's been to Tallahassee. So anyway, so then Shiny Optics, DeSantis.

So just for our listeners who aren't, so Mike's talking about Dick Uline, who's a major Republican donor who actually was a big funder of Club for Growth and has funded, I guess, a lot of Trump efforts. And Mike's saying that they are not flying to West Palm Beach to see Trump. They're flying to Tallahassee to see DeSantis. And that's like a bellwether for a lot of these hard right, big check writers, super PACs. Yeah, yeah, that's one of a thousand indicators. All right, so who's out there as a possibility?

Obviously, a lot of the talk now, which again could be premature, but when you're governor of Florida, you start with a lot of resources and he has a tremendous cash reserve in the bank, you know, is DeSantis. Now on the other side of the equation, never had a tough race,

you know, two easy opponents, blah blah blah. But he is out there and he's big, and in places like Florida where they know him both, and even New Hampshire, he's leading in the very early, somewhat misleading polls. But he is the other big player right now. Then you have the second team, the second tier, which can turn into the first tier. Before we move off DeSantis, how long... I mean, I know a lot of these folks running are governors,

and they have legislative sessions. DeSantis, Yunkin, I mean, we can go down the list. They have legislative sessions, which make it hard for them to jump in until the legislative... At least that's what they're saying, why they can't make a decision soon. But in the case of DeSantis, I am struck by how long he's stretching this out. And he's like, I can meet with any donor in the country I want.

I can be on Fox News whenever I want. And I'm running all these, I'm waging all these culture wars in Florida that get covered nationally. How else could I be better using my time? No, it's right. There's no, the old model is you got to go, you know, have a balloon drop and spend a hundred grand on rally expenses

and do all that crap. He can go pick a fight with the legislature on the metric system or fluoridated water or whatever and get all the, the whole thing has been nationalized now. And so he doesn't need to. He can announce, you know, way down the road. There's no percentage in it for him. And so they're in kind of this,

the invisible primary, the political science term, which used to be flying around meeting with county chairman and all that, is now totally visible. So he's playing that game and doing well and sucking up money people and lining stuff up. And an official announcement, no rush at all. And getting conservative press coverage nonstop like he's a superhero. Right, right. The great thing about being a governor is you can pick a local war. And if you're a big fish like him, you get covered.

So just to stay on him, would you say just – and I know you're not like invested in him. But do you think he's playing it smartly if you were advising him? Oh, yeah, yeah. I think he's playing it smartly if you were advising him? Oh, yeah, yeah. I think he's playing the Greta Garbo stuff well, creating the mystery and the interest. I think they're playing the finance game pretty well. I don't know if they've got their mechanical act together and they understand how big this is, undertaking one of these things. I don't really know. His political world is an interesting mix of old friends, some smart young folks in Tallahassee, but who haven't done this.

His wife, who was in local TV news, is pretty savvy about that world. So, you know, the big question of DeSantis is if you strap him to the rocket, you know, can he handle the speed? And I had a DeSantis is if you strap him to the rocket, you know, can he handle the speed? And I had a DeSantis ally pull me aside because, you know, a lot of the institutional repubs I know from my Jeb years down there, and a lot of them are, you know, he's the governor, so they're all on board. And somebody was kind of excited about him but said, you know, the best news we got, and this is a few months ago, you know, he's been doing these hurricane events where we bring him down and these stories will break your heart. The guy at the restaurant, his life savings wiped out into the sea. And for the first time, we finally got him to tap the guy on the shoulder, you know, and he mowed a little bit. And that was considered like

a Super Bowl winning touchdown pass within DeSantis world. Because there's a little whiff of the, what's the, how do I do this without getting canceled? Don't touch me. He's not a back-slapping Paul, put it that way. And so when he meets the great state of New Hampshire, it'll be fun to watch. But New Hampshire isn't as powerful as it used to be. Even on the Republic, it's been screwed with on the Democratic side. So I don't know. We'll see. But anyway, he's the big other thing now, but the process is good at creating other options. So what are some other options? Well,

Cruz, of course, wants to run with all the Cruz baggage that entails. I don't think he'll run. He's got a Senate reelect, and he knows he can't take his eye off that ball. Perhaps, but I'm looking at the people in the penitentiary of ambition who are constantly scraping the bars, seeing if they're movable. I put Marco in the same category, though I doubt he'll run, but if he thought he could, he would. You've got Larry Hogan, who will be the great moderate hope. I'd love to vote for Larry Hogan for president, but that's going to be hard.

He might have a little Bruce Babbitt moment or two, but I think in the modern primary it would be very tough for him. I like Tim Scott on paper because I'm a big fan in opposite, so people like to vote for what they think they didn't get the last time. And he has kind of a sunny conservatism that contrasts well with the painful hangover that even a lot of rank-and-file members feel. He's a real conservative. So he's no sure thing. It may not even run.

But he's interesting on paper. Also from South Carolina. And he's a great performer. I mean, he's speeches and he's a great order. He could get discovered. The Fox high-actane fuel went into him, and he's the only guy selling something other than, I have an enemies list here, people I've got to go get in the middle of the night.

And he's, you know, and also Republican. And he had a real moment after George Floyd over the Senate legislation, which was never passed, on criminal justice reform and police reform. He really owned that. I just think he had a moment. I think people were paying attention. Even people who kind of disagree with him were impressed by him. No, no, no.

If I were a young consultant looking to go find somebody to make him do a star, he'd be the top of my list in terms of getting discovered by the media. And also there is a thing where Republican primary voters are always curious and potentially ready to fall in love with African American conservatives because they're so tired of being called racist by the New York Times and everything. So anyway, I keep an eye on him as the most interesting dark horse should he decide to do it. And he's got one super PAC donor who would write him the unlimited check, so he'd be able to make the argument. All right, also from South Carolina, Nikki Haley. Yeah, Nikki Haley, two Ks, one more, boom, she makes it.

I'm not a fan. Just because I've dealt with her in South Carolina politics, I believe she believes in nothing. And you've seen her gymnastics on Trump. You know, too clever by half. She's pulling 13%, distant third right now in primary polling there. Doesn't doom her, but yeah, I was surprised because that's somewhere they know her. So where they've had the Trump dog food and the Haley dog food and the DeSantis dog food they've just heard about, the other two are beating her. We will see. On paper, she's pretty good. The media sees an identity story there, so they're going to give her a lot of attention based on that.

But deep down, I don't know if ready for prime time, and I personally don't believe she believes in anything. Now, that may not stop her, but it will be interesting to see when Trump puts the hate ray on her because the inside narrative on her and the party is pure ambition would stab her mother to get two delegates from Nebraska. And Trump will start to chew on her, and we'll see how she weathers that. And Marco had a little of this last time. These weathervane pleaser candidates don't take beatings well because they organize their politics to never take a beating, and a Trump beating is certainly coming there. Glenn Youngkin.

You know, again, one-hit wonder, but it's a huge hit. That school stuff has resonance in the Republican suburbs, even if it's somewhat manufactured. He's generational. He can write a check to get going and see if it catches on. So I would include him in second tier now. And remember, the Virginia governorship comes with an ejector chair, you know, one term. So you got nothing. Why not? What else is there to do? Well, especially him who, he doesn't strike me as a guy who'd serve in the Senate, who'd want to serve in a Senate seat, and he doesn't need to make money when he leaves office because he's had a very successful career in private equity.

So what has he got to lose? He's only got one term as governor. Exactly. And, you know, vice president, they all think about that. Worst case, I'm sure, Tim Scott. Worst case, I'm VP unless I totally embarrass myself. Then you've got Asa Hutchison, the governor of Arkansas. Big political name down there.

He's been everything. He's been a hardcore conservative. Now he's kind of a severe Trump doubter. Problem is, in modern politics and the money game, damn hard to find enough of a money base in Arkansas to buy table stakes and be able to get the money center donors interested. Not sure what his path is, but he's got nothing else to do, and he'll run. And there is some money for somebody with his pitch or see,

but I don't think he brings nearly the horsepower to the race that some of the others do. Trump administration alumni like Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo? Well, Pompeo's an interesting one. You know, he's been a member of Congress, so he has some idea how this election stuff works. Doesn't have a lot else to do. I don't see a natural base or any of that, but not an idiot. Interesting resume. He steals the debate early, kind of Gingrich style. You know, he could have a moment. I don't know how long his supply lines are, but, you know, he'll be able to ante in in some way.

There's probably some rich Maury Taylor business guy or two who will jump in, you know. I've always thought the other guy, though personality-wise, he needs a little boot camp in terms of being sharp and sparky, but on paper. And it's very hard to run out of the house, too. So this is a double long shot. But I thought if Fox, if he had a great 10-minute stump,

Dan Crenshaw could get discovered, too, from Dallas. Congressman, former SEAL, star of the JFK School, very smart. He's a guy at the eyepatch. Fought in post-9-11 wars, and he's kind of taken on Trump a little bit. Yeah, you can tell he... I've not talked to him, I don't know. Again, if I were young, he's an hour guy to go see. Hey, how'd you like to be president? But it's a total long shot thing. But he's interesting rocket fuel too. And I think our primary electorate, most of it, well over two-thirds, is looking for a new, shiny, exciting, winner-looking candidate

who doesn't trip ideological lines that scare them away like a Hogan might. Do you worry, we've rattled off a bunch of interesting candidates, do you worry that they all run and we wind up with a Trump situation like 2016 where it's Trump and a whole bunch of people carving up little pieces of what's left and he wins for the for the you know reasons you said earlier that he with the plurality of the vote he can just start you know racking up delegates so yeah no I do I do that's why I wanted the proportional delegates to give the thing longer to kill the little fish. Because most little fish are like, yeah, I'm willing to drop out after I lose a few contests.

And next thing you know, you're in winner take all. And you wind up kind of like before with Marco flopping around, gasping for air, and Kasich hanging in there to be the 12% anti-Trump candidate. So it is a problem. But I think the finance world is going to be pretty brutal. I also think there's a chance that Trump could lose Iowa. So you're basically saying the big donors are going to, like, tell candidates, sorry, in 2016, we may have tolerated you for far longer than we should have, but we're not going to make the same mistake in 2024. Yeah, what's motivating most of the big donors now is not again Trump. He's crazy and we're going to lose. So if they see that scenario starting

to unfold, they're going to pick somebody. Now, what could aid that is Trump loses Iowa, Trump loses New Hampshire, Trump loses South Carolina. Bing, bang, bing. Can Trump take three big losses like that with the finance operation that's looking a lot weaker. You know, they put all the money in the Super PAC and then those guys all ran and out of the deal with Trump. So legal for the Super PAC to talk to Trump. By the way, sidebar, I will bet $1,000 that Trump will try to call and talk to the Super PAC people

because it'll drive him crazy that, quote, his money is not under his control. So that'll be the next lawsuit or criminal charge on Trump or his Confederates. Because you cannot coordinate with the super PAC. But boy, he won't be able to stay in that little cage when he starts losing. So, you know, if Trump starts winning, he'll win. But my bet is that won't happen. And I think it'll consolidate pretty quickly

among around whoever can beat him. You know, I want to think that may narrow down to somebody fresh and exciting and DeSantis or somebody who's kind of on the culture stuff able and has a big money base is able to buy their way into the other big spot. President Biden gave a State of the Union address. You guys talked about it on Hacks on Tap. I want to play one clip, which was probably the most... These State of the Union addresses have gotten so boring over the last few years. I can't figure out if they're so boring because Biden's boring or because these speeches never really move numbers.

They're a good bat signal to the party. Yeah, that's what they really are. They program the troops. Oh, here's what we're fighting for. I got it. But they never move numbers. Right. But they move narrative.

But I do want to play one clip that looked less like a State of the Union dress and more looked like prime minister's questions in the British Parliament, this exchange. Alain, do you have that clip? Some of my Republican friends want to take the economy hostage. I get it, unless I agree to their economic plans. All of you at home should know what those plans are. Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans,

some Republicans, some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset. I'm not saying it's the majority. Let me give you, anybody who doubts it, contact my office. I'll give you a copy. I'll give you a copy of the proposal. That means Congress doesn't vote. Well, I'm glad to see you. I tell you, I enjoy conversion.

So, Mike, first question, then we'll get to that specific exchange. What did you think of Biden's overall performance at the State of the Union? Yeah, Look, I'm a conservative, so I can argue with a lot of his policy stuff all day long. And Biden is no periclesi order, limited toolbox. But I thought he did about as well, and I'm politically here, with his toolbox that he's capable of doing. And he exceeded my expectations, which were pretty low. The speech was too long, needed an editor. There was a much better soundbite out of the Chinese balloon they should have had.

But fundamentally, huge election signals in the speech. One is he's back to comfortable old Joe. We got out of, as you noted earlier, the FDR business. And he's back to the meat and potatoes economic stuff. He's back to trying to communicate with blue-collar, white, non-college-educated voters, try to get them back from the populism on the Republican side. He did the empathy on the police murder in Tennessee really well, but he also protected his right flank on police. Kevin McCarthy stood up so fast for the pro cop stuff.

I thought he was going to hit the ceiling. Um, and so I, on the politics of it, I thought he did really pretty well. And then on social security, it's a bullshit attack, you know, and we should take that apart. What really happened, uh, that got them there, but there were pubs predictably went nuts and turned into a bunch of bleacher bums, particularly somebody in a white clown suit in the back. And he handled that well.

I thought he pulled him in and enjoyed. He's off script. And after, okay, we're all for Social Security. Thanks. We agree. And locked him in. So I thought they took the bait there. Because that attack drives him so crazy.

And it is disingenuous. One crank Republican senator mentioned in a plan. Yeah, so let's say Rick Scott, who's in the leadership, who was the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the last session. Yeah, and under fire for a lousy performance there and gunning for Mitch McConnell's job. Right, and he put out a proposal leading up to the midterms

that had something about Social Security and Medicare reform. And now Biden, I see, is in Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin. And he says, here, I got Rick Scott's brochure right here. All federal legislation sunsets every five years. So he's now walking around with Rick Scott's proposal, which was falling right up from his speech. So I guess here's my question. Well, he's saying, here's the Republican plan,

wipe out your Social Security. The Republicans are all saying under their breath, that son of a bit Scott. And then they're saying, no, no, we're not for it, because they have to. And the Democrats, it's the old make the bastard deny it. You know, it's not the official Republican plan, but a leading Republican member of the leadership suggested it,

so the Dems are going to pick a Social Security fight all day long. Which is smart by them. It's disingenuous. We used to do the same thing. I can't tell you, you will remember this, how many ads that there was a gas tax that passed by one vote. So every single senator had two million bucks. Bob Carr, you cut an ad in 1994 for Spencer's campaign. Midnight at the Senate, Nation Watches,

one man walks, and Bob Carr cast a deciding vote to double the cost. Bob Carr, you know, it was all Bob Carr. What Michigan voters didn't notice is you were running five other campaigns where the candidate you're running against was the deciding vote. Right, everybody was the deciding vote, and you know, I would bet that all the guys up for reelection went to the leadership and

said, kill this thing. You're going to murder. And now they're all the deciding. So both parties play this game. And our guys should be smart enough to be careful of walking into a ambush like that on live national TV. All right. So, Mike, I want to pull up a piece.

Right. So Biden, like I have, you know, PTSD on this issue because I worked for Paul Ryan, and I actually think he did an intellectually serious approach to Medicare reform when he was in Congress. Oh, we're screwed then. Right. And when Romney chose Ryan, you know, Obama and Biden went after Romney aggressively for the Ryan plan.

So Josh Barrow has a good piece in Substack, which I'm going to quote from here, about the State of the Union. He says, and particularly in that exchange, he says, Biden's speech, I'm quoting here, Biden's speech was right out of the 90s in a way that I think was very politically savvy for the president and his team. And it previews how they are likely to run a re-election campaign against Governor DeSantis, if he's the Republican nominee. Here's what was so 90s about Biden's speech. After Clinton stepped on a rake with his health care plan and lost both houses of Congress in the 94 midterms,

he got himself to an eight-point re-election victory in 1996 by running on two key themes. Republicans are right-wing lunatics who want to cut your Social Security and Medicare, and I'll never let them do that. Here's a bunch of popular small-bore ideas I can work to on two key themes. Republicans are right-wing lunatics who want to cut your Social Security and Medicare, and I'll never let them do that. Here's a bunch of popular small-bore ideas I can work to implement on a bipartisan basis with those Republican lunatics. Biden's speech yesterday had a lot from both of these items. And then he goes on to say,

but the most damaging shoe to drop for Republicans on these issues hasn't even been discussed much this week. Governor DeSantis, who's at this point edging toward being the presumptive nominee, voted repeatedly as a member of Congress for budget proposals built around slashing Social Security and Medicare. In 2013 and 2014, he voted to replace then-Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's budget-cutting proposals with more radical budget-cutting proposals. And he goes on to talk about, you know, raising Social Security and Medicare retirement ages to 70, cutting the growth of Social Security benefits, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So what Barrow is saying here, what Josh Barrow is saying here is they're already thinking not just about running against Trump, the Biden team, they're actually thinking about running against DeSantis and doing to DeSantis what they did to Gingrich, what they did to Dole, what they did to Romney and Ryan.

You think that's what's going on here? Oh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, I've never revealed this, I think, on a podcast before. But when Mitt was running, I went up to New Hampshire to have a secret meeting with him about the VP choices. And I like came sneaking in there. And I was out of favor with the geniuses on the campaign team and, uh, went through it. And Ryan was prominent on the list. So it was Christie. I remember with Christie, I said, look, he's great. He's a machine on the stump, but if you pick them, you own Christie, you know, think I was like, like having, having, having a pet Tasmanian devil, you know,

who has to feed it because they're going to lose their hand. Uh, and with Ryan, I said, well, these congressional guys all have 17,000 votes and you know, who has to feed it because they're going to lose their hand. And with Ryan, I said, well, these congressional guys all have 17,000 votes. And, you know, the Rand Paul Act for gold to blooms, you know, Social Security, Medicare, you know, you're going to own all that. And, of course, they're all over it. They literally have a search and replace key at the DNC Republican congressional year, you know, 2002, push it, and 47 deadly amendment votes that are easy to demagogue with no contest pop up, a context, excuse me. So yeah, yeah, they're going to be all over.

Look, they're going to run the race of Joe's done a good job on big middle class stuff, and he made sure you don't have to pay that extra fee at the motel to have a room next door. He's on your side. You might have your doubts about him, but take a look at these crazy sons of bitches over here. They're going to cut your social security. They're going to put Trump on the $10 bill. They're racist. They're just going to do the greatest hits. And that's the campaign. Now, I think they're a little overconfident about it because if the macro stuff goes wrong and Biden is 140, he's still going to be vulnerable. But, yeah, the idea that DeSantis is not a target-rich environment is wrong. He's just not, in my view, as toxic and radioactive to general election voters as Trump is. Now, where he'll be in a year, DeSantis, after going through 500 Democratic acid car washes,

well, you know, we'll see. But they're all over that stuff. And they'll be doing it to anybody with a congressional record. They'll do it to the governors. But governors have a lot thinner footprint because they don't discuss the legislation. Yeah, this is why, like, Youngkin is in much better shape on this score. Right. Okay, last question before we let you go.

So assuming Biden's the nominee. Or a Hogan, I'll say. Yeah, just to be fair. Right. All right. I like that. Do you, I'm sympathetic, the listeners here know I'm a little sympathetic to Youngkin, so I plug him a couple of times. Do you think Biden definitely keeps Harris as his running mate? I think if he had a way to move her on for politics, he would.

The smart move, I think, within the identity realities of the Democratic Party would be to switch her out for Warnock, who's a thousand percent better candidate. Just came off the Herschel Walker thing. Plays well. The problem is, what do you do with her? And then really cynical Democrats after a drink or two say Supreme Court. I don't know about that, but boy, if they can find a way to do it, they will. And, you know, you saw the Washington Post story about how she's, you know, fighting for her comeback. Yeah, I was struck in that piece.

You're just a bad juggler. You know, you don't have the coordination to do that job. I was struck in that piece. Sometimes you're just a bad juggler. You know, you don't have the coordination to do that job. I was struck in that piece. I said to Maggie, you know, we're all used to these pieces where, you know, these reporters say, we spoke to 300 different sources close to the vice president. This article is based on all that reporting. But, you know, all these sources did not want to, you know,

disclose their names because of blah, blah, blah, blah. What was striking about that piece is they had the 300 people, but like half of them were willing to go on the record. Right. It's a tell. Right. So let me ask you this.

I mean, there has been some pushback that, well, this is the same heat that was unfairly directed at Hillary Clinton, and now it's being directed at Kamala Harris um and you know a woman with a national profile in politics has has a harder time which which I'm sympathetic to and Maggie made this point and this article makes the point but I'm also reminded that you know Dan Quayle no one was clearing the way for Dan Quayle to have a post-Bush, you know, national political career. Biden and, I mean, Obama in 2016 was so worried about, or 2015, I guess, leading up to 2016, was so worried about Biden as a potential nominee, he thought Clinton would be stronger, that he basically, like, you know, nudged Joe quietly out of running. So there is precedent for these vice presidents kind of,

at least if not kicked off the ticket, being shown the door when it comes to them running. Yeah, just very hard in the modern identity era to a party that's base is heavily made up of African-American voters to tank her, unless there's a superstar and unless it is portrayed, which is hard because of leaks, as her idea. But yeah, I mean, I think if a magic hobo landed on the roof of the White House

and they had one wish, that would probably be it. But they're, I don't know, not an easy one. And the way Washington works, you know, it'll turn into a process story about the killing of Kamala. And lastly, the thing that even makes it more of a pickle for them is if Biden comes rolling into the debate on a little rascal scooter, you know, as he starts looking older and older or has to go to Walter Reed for a weekend, which normally is very pro forma for a president, but with him, it'll be 24-hour cable. Will Biden make it till tomorrow at 83? And Dr. Sanjay Gupta will be, well, at his age, 8 out of 10.

Point is, the microscope on the vice president will be even bigger. So the stakes are going to rise for her because she has a hell of a chance as VP, you know, God forbid, to maybe get the call. So that makes it even worse because she won't be able to skate through as kind of an irrelevancy. She'll be in the center of the debate. So I think the best answer is make her a lot better. And for whatever reason, and sometimes people just, as I said before, they're just not born jugglers. They've not been able to do that. But boy, oh boy, I'll bet they're going to have a Manhattan Project-level attempt. Well, I'll just say—

Because they have to. She pulled out of the 2020 election before a single-vote ballot was cast. I mean, you know, Marianne Williamson lasted longer than Harris did. Her campaign blew up. She was given a couple of assignments to work on in this administration, and in fairness, they weren't easy ones. She was assigned to work on the border,

and she was assigned to work on voting rights. Yeah, thanks, Joe. That's a great one. Then go solve the Middle East. Well, you know what's interesting about that before we go? Someone pointed out to me the other day the two presidents who were the worst

at managing their vice presidents were the two presidents in the modern era who were vice presidents themselves george hw bush was was obviously did not you know did not give quail the most plum assignments and and responsibilities and and then biden with harris both of these guys were the the best presidents in terms of delegating to the vice presidents were Bush and Cheney. Clinton and Gore were actually... Clinton gave Gore real stuff to work on. But it's interesting. These two guys who were actually vice presidents themselves

aren't that interested in giving much responsibility to the vice president. And it's a bipartisan thing. Remember poor Hubert Humphrey? You know, it's just like... I mean, they made a career out of torturing that poor decent man. So yes, that is an interesting observation. And that's one of the big loose ends of this whole thing. What do we do about Kamala? Yeah. And I'll just say before we go,

I do think this idea that like Biden's got the playbook on Trump. He's beat him before only he can beat him again. I said this Last week like the playbook was a unique playbook It was running a campaign in the middle of a pandemic Biden never left his basement Kamala wasn't visible. It was totally a referendum on Trump It was I mean Biden is not gonna run that kind of campaign this time He is going to have to be out there and be very visible and if he has something like you're describing like a health scare or something it's going to be a whole other level of scrutiny. No I agree with that but if it's Trump it'll still be a referendum on Trump and that gives Biden a fighting shot. I mean

Axelrod has a good line which is if you take Biden's record and you run a 64-year-old candidate, you win, you know, seven out of eight cases. And I think he's right against the modern Republican Party. In the old days, we could beat that. So if Biden, I probably am hoping for Trump because he's the most, the weakest possible outcome, but that's out of my control. And if you care about America, you don't want Trump. Because what happens if Biden, something happens, and then Trump by default wins? And then you've got Trump in the oval, which I think the highest purpose of the next election is that cannot happen.

All right, Mike, we will leave it there. Thank you, as always. Wow, this was fun, fun Dan thank you for having me and I'll tell you what next time you call I will call you back there we go alright take care Mike take care pal that was fun

that's our show for today to keep up with Mike Murphy you can follow him on Twitter that's at Murphy Mike. And you can also subscribe to Hacks on Tap, his podcast. And be sure to send us questions for Neil Ferguson. We will ask Professor Ferguson for his responses to them. Please send questions to dan at unlocked.fm. That's dan at unlocked.fm.

Please keep your questions to under 30 seconds, record a voice memo, and send them in. Call Me Back is produced by Alain Benatar. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor.