Call Me Back - with Dan Senor - The Deal and its Political Fallout - with Amit Segal
Episode Date: January 28, 2025Watch Call me Back on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CallMeBackPodcastTo contact us, sign up for updates, and access transcripts, visit: https://arkmedia.org/Dan on X: https://x.com/dansenorDan on ...Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dansenor Over the past couple of weeks, our focus on “Call Me Back” has been on the hostage deal and its implications. Today Amit Segal returns to the podcast to discuss the perspective of those inside Israel opposed to this deal. Amit Segal is the chief political correspondent and analyst for Channel 12 News, and for Yediot Ahronot, the country’s largest circulation newspaper. CREDITS:ILAN BENATAR - Producer & EditorMARTIN HUERGO - EditorREBECCA STROM - Director of OperationsSTAV SLAMA - Researcher GABE SILVERSTEIN - Research Intern YUVAL SEMO - Music Composer
Transcript
Discussion (0)
In the past, Israel held a very staunch position towards even negotiating with terrorists.
48 Israelis died during the 70s and 80s in military operations to rescue hostages
due to Israel's refusal to negotiate with terrorists.
Later on, Israel gradually began to pay a heavier price, one for one, then five for one, then a thousand for one.
But now there is an amazing precedent
in which Israel gives up its military successes in northern Gaza,
therefore giving up major assets.
It's three o'clock p.m. on Monday, January 27th here in New York City.
It's 10 o'clock p.m. on Monday, January 27th in Israel as Israelis continue to observe the
implementation of this hostage deal and joining me today to discuss his
perspective on the hostage deal its implementation and some news flowing from
it over the next days and weeks I think is Amit Segal of Channel 12 in Israel
and Yediot Achronot. He has been a regular on Call Me Back. Amit Segal of Channel 12 in Israel and Yediot Achronot.
He has been a regular on Call Me Back.
Amit, thanks for being here.
Thank you for inviting me, Dan.
Amit, you just to set up where you're at on this issue, you have not formally
articulated a position for or against the hostage deal, even though you have
mentioned to me offline that if you had to vote deal, even though you have mentioned to me offline,
that if you had to vote for it,
if you were forced to have to make a vote one way
or the other on it, you would have probably voted for it,
but you, in your reporting inside Israel,
have been giving a lot of oxygen for those voices
that have concerns with the deal
or are outright opposed to it.
So I guess my first question is
How do you reconcile those two like why would you have probably voted for it and that why do you feel compelled?
To give voice to those who are opposed to it. So first of all, I think every Israeli should thank
every morning God and himself for not being a cabinet member. Because I think this hostage deal is, like most crucial decisions during the war, is
something which is unbearable.
It's choosing between the bad and the worst.
And there is no right choice.
Having said that, I guess I wouldn't have voted against the deal. I have polls on my Telegram channel, always, I don't know, 50, 60,000 votes, and this
was the first time that I voted that I had no option because it's complicated.
The reason I articulate the opinions that are against the deal is because I hate this
cancellation policy.
The fact that, you know, in many debates in our days, people don't try to fight you, but to prevent you from articulating your opinion, to make your opinion illegitimate,
tagging you as racist in the States or in Israel as a messianic, fascist,
or in Israel as a messianic, fascist, death eater, national orthodox voter. And I think I have to give a voice for people who are very worried because I remember when
I was much younger, 13, 14 years ago, when the Shalit deal was signed, the decision to
actually release a thousand terrorists in exchange for one Israeli soldier, that I was
very worried.
But to be honest, I didn't dare to articulate this opinion because there was a sentiment
that said, no, it's great.
Don't discuss the costs of the deal.
We want Gilad home now.
And Gilad returned home.
We are very happy about it.
But the cost was terribly great.
Yichie Sinwar, the leader of the October 7th massacre, was released back then.
And now the terrorists that are released had not been released in 2011 because they were
the cruelest terrorists.
So Yichie Sinuah was considered less cruel than them.
He didn't have a Jewish blood on his hand when he was released.
So I have to provide the Israeli public
with food for thought, in my opinion.
And I wanna get into the concerns with the deal
that you feel like you're reflecting,
but when you yourself say you would've probably voted for it,
even though you seem to understand the concerns with it,
why would you have voted for it?
Because we are locked in a situation
in which the Israeli government had offered the deal
prior to the acceptance by Trump and Hamas.
And we have a terrible situation in which we have more than 40 live hostages with women
in Gaza, held in Gaza.
And we have those soldiers, those female soldiers, they had been warning against this disaster for months.
They saw Hamas practicing towards this terrible massacre
and no one heard them and they should not be punished.
These are the IDF soldiers that were serving
in southern Israel that were reporting up
to the chain of command, there's something going on here,
Hamas is up to something, and according to the reports,
they were ignored.
And you're saying those are the soldiers
that were taken hostage.
As Winston Churchill said, no good deed goes unpunished.
Those were the only figures
in the Israeli security establishment
to warn that Hamas is preparing something monstrous.
Neither the prime minister nor the defense minister or
the IDF chief of staff or the commander in the southern border, no one warned and they did.
No one took them seriously because they were juniors in the army or because they were female
or all of the above. So this is one thing. And the second is the fact that Trump was elected.
So this is one thing. And the second is the fact that Trump was elected.
And I trust Trump way more than I trust Biden
or that I trusted Kamala Harris.
I know that for Kamala Harris and for former President Biden,
the hostage deal was merely an excuse.
They wanted the hostages back home,
but the main purpose was ending the war
that actually caused the Democratic
Party to lose ground in Michigan and in Florida on the other hand, and they wanted the war
to end.
Although they promised Israel that it could relaunch its war when the ceasefire is to
end, I don't think we should have trusted them. And I trust Trump not, I don't give him carte blanche for fulfilling my fascist dreams,
but I know where he stands, where he stands when it comes to the very existence of Hamas,
the very idea of the Iranian axis, and his obligation not to threaten Israel by cutting its lifeline and ammunition supply
in order to get his policy done.
He wouldn't have done it to Israel like Biden did.
And this is why I have hearted I would have, I guess, supported the deal.
From a strategic perspective, Amit,
I think there's two ways,
the way I've rationalized it in my media appearances
I've made over here in the US,
is I've said it's a bad deal that Israel should do.
And one of the reasons,
it's a version of what you're arguing,
but what I've argued is,
because I get this question, why now versus the summer?
And that's fair, Trump versus Biden is one big difference,
but I think the other,
and I think there are other differences actually
between the two deals,
or what we understood of the deal in the summer,
but I did never articulate a position
against the deal in the summer.
I'm just saying there are some differences,
but to me the biggest differences is not what's in the deal,
but in Israel's strategic situation in the region,
which is this time when Israel is negotiating
versus last time, Sinwar is dead, Ham Hamas appears from at least as a professional fighting
force to have been largely degraded, Hezbollah seriously degraded, Nasrallah
gone, Iranian air defenses completely exposed, the Assad regime in Syria
fallen. I mean Israel's whole strategic posture has changed in the region, so
there's no question there's risk in doing a deal now,
but if Israel's ever going to take a risk, now is the time to do it from its strategic,
expending some of its capital from its stronger strategic position.
I couldn't agree more.
So this is one fact.
The second is that Hamas no longer possess an existential threat on Israel. It was degraded from being a terror army containing two or three divisions, depends how you count
divisions.
It was reduced to a guerrilla terrorist organization within the borders of Gaza, which means it's
still very disturbing and it can cause damage.
But it's no longer as long as we keep an eye on it and not neglecting it or ignoring it
or feeding the monster, it doesn't have a chance to possess a threat against Israeli
citizens and villages.
This is the second thing.
And the third thing, in my opinion, is that when you take a look at the deal, the danger is not the very existence of Hamas,
but the message it conveys to our neighbors.
I'm afraid that this message is quite dangerous because
as long as Hamas is still on its feet,
it still delivers the message that Hamas has the upper hand.
But the most important thing is that we had this crazy chess game between ourselves.
The only reason why there wasn't a deal in May, even according to President Biden,
former Secretary of Lincoln and Sullivan and Kirby,
and all the administration, the former administration is the fact that
Hamas had refused for months to the very terms of the deal.
So it's not about Israel.
I mean, we can discuss for years to come what would have happened had we signed the deal
in May, but it wasn't on the table because Hamas refused.
So I think in this case, I prefer Biden's version over, you know, the political analysis that Israel refused because it doesn't meet the facts.
But the counter to what I'm saying though, which is Israel's geopolitical position has never been better in the region, and so now is the time to take some risk and expend some capital.
The counter to that is Israel's position has never been stronger and now you're about to weaken it.
So the images of Hamas, even though it may not look like a sophisticated professional terror organization,
it's still, as we've seen with these hostage releases, the way they create that flow to a little bit of a ceremony parade,
all the guys in the Hamas uniforms with their weapons, and they're projecting that they're still there and in fact are reemerging.
Then today, literally today, the images of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians moving
back up to northern Gaza.
I'm not saying they were never going to move back to northern Gaza, but acting like they've
reclaimed their territory, they've survived.
And of course, presumably most of them are civilians, but even with the best of protections,
you've got to assume some of sympathetic to Hamas, shall we say, are going to slip through and suddenly be
back in northern Gaza.
And the images of these horrendous terrorists serving in Israeli prisons, Palestinians serving
multiple life sentences, some of these stories are really, some of the people being released
are to say they have Israeli blood on their hands, it's like times a hundred.
I mean, it's like each one of these stories are responsible for maiming and slaughtering Israelis. And so their sense of triumphalism
as they return to wherever they're returning, Israel's taking that strength in geopolitical
position and is it starting to look again like a lot weaker than it has looked over
the last few months? Isn't that a major risk?
It is. And to put it even more bluntly, this is the first hostage deal in the world's history
in which a country pays a strategic price in exchange for its people. I'll explain.
In the past, Israel held a very staunch position towards even negotiating with terrorists. Forty-eight Israelis died during the 70s and the 80s in military operations to rescue hostages
due to Israel's refusal to negotiate with terrorists.
One of them, Netanyahu's nose, first ten because it was his brother, Yoni Netanyahu, in the
Entebbe operation in 1976.
Later on Israel gradually began to pay heavier price, one for one, then five for one, then
a thousand for one.
But now there is an amazing precedent in which Israel gives up its military successes in northern Gaza, thus allowing Gazans to actually
reinvade the former city of Gaza, therefore giving up major assets.
We'll discuss later, I guess, whether it can be redone or reoccupied, but the interesting
thing and the dangerous thing is that when Ihe Sinwar planned
his war, he had three options.
I know it's from intelligence.
I read, one, destroying Israel.
Hamas would invade from the south, Hezbollah from the north, Iran would join and Israel
would be destroyed.
The second was invading part of the Negev of southern Israel. But the third option, the default, was we would kidnap enough hostages in order to end
the war in return for those hostages.
Now he didn't live to see this deal, but this is the closest that Sinuach got to fulfill
his dream.
I think he died while not believing his eyes that Israel
has fought for more than a year. And something went terribly wrong in his calculation. He thought
that the US would stop Israel, that the Western public opinion would stop it, but he had an
insurance, a get out of jail or get out of Gaza ticket, which is the hostages. Now, if in order for 33 hostages, we give up Gaza and we evacuate in the Tsarim axis,
the axis that divides between northern Gaza and southern Gaza, it necessarily means that
in order to get the other 65 hostages, we would have to end the war.
And this is a junction Netanyahu refused to get to
because it means a collision between
the two aims of the war.
One, defeating Hamas.
Second, raising all the hostages.
So yes, this was one concession too much.
I wanna come back to that,
but before we do, just there've been reports in recent days
both from the US intelligence community, but my understanding is reports in recent days both from the US intelligence community but my understanding is also something comes from the
Israeli intelligence community. It's obviously hard to quantify these things with any precision
but I'll cite the reports that something that estimates are somewhere between 10 and 15 000
Hamas operatives, terrorists, combatants, whatever Hamas members, sympathizers, I don't know what you
call them, have been recruited. Let's call them professional Hamas members sympathizers. I don't know what you call them have been recruited
Let's call them professional Hamas necks since the war
First of all, do you think that's accurate? No, there are two
exports that a Gaza would never run short of one is
anti-semitic anti-jewish male between 17 and 35 and the second is Kalachnikov rifle and
therefore to be honest I'm not very worried about it I'm worried more about
what we did over the last generation in which we neglected Gaza thus allowing
those youngsters to become soldiers they were soldiers they had battalions they
had brigades they knew exactly what they should do.
There was an analysis in a great book by Guy Hazut, a former general in the Israeli army,
claiming that the Hamas warriors were better trained and equipped than the Israeli soldiers.
Now this is no longer the situation.
Yes, you can take someone, give him a patch and a green ribbon and a non-functioning Kalachnikov,
but it doesn't make you an army and doesn't make you a threat to Israel.
The only threat is the image, the image of Sumud in Palestinian Arabic sticking to the
ground of existence, of standing up against the Israeli occupation.
And I think Israel should fight the image.
I have a few ideas I have to do it when the ceasefire ends.
But from a military perspective, I don't think it's the same Hamas.
It's broken.
Its tunnels are mainly destroyed.
There's no option.
There's no way to actually rebuild it without us noticing.
Peter Van Doren Over the last year, I've interviewed Prime Minister Netanyahu, I've interviewed
Ron Durmer a couple of times.
Dr. Shachar Ammiel It's a pity I didn't. He never gives interviews in Hebrew.
Peter Van Doren You can take that up with him. That's not my beef, but I do think you're pretty
well-sourced, so I'm not worried about you. But one of the arguments they have made, when they
have gotten pressure about why they,
quote unquote, don't have a day after plan,
and why they haven't done more to create
a different political reality on the ground in Gaza,
rather than just clobbering Hamas,
they would make the argument that no alternative
Palestinian political leader or prospective political leader
is going to emerge unless the Palestinian public,
Palestinian society writ large believes Hamas is gone and is not coming back. That this is a society
that is traumatized by this multi-decade rule reign by Hamas over Gaza, over the
Gazan Palestinians, and they live in total fear of Hamas and retribution. Yechis Sinwar, as we know,
was serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli prison for slaughtering
Palestinians, not for slaughtering Jews, because he was the butcher of Chanunis.
You know, as we know, Sinwar was called the butcher of Chanunis.
He implemented this very intense and aggressive and formal system of retribution against Palestinians
for quote unquote collaborating with the Israelis.
So everyone lives in fear and until Hamas is totally wiped out, there's no point in
having a discussion about who could be the alternative.
And now, from what I understand, Hamas as their images are reemerging in the context
of this hostage deal, Hamas is sending messages to Palestinians like we're back and we're
going to hunt down anyone who worked with the Israelis and we've already started to see images of Palestinians being
murdered by Hamas in their last week
So in that sense was are they gambling away that?
Thesis the thesis being you have to destroy Hamas and until Palestinians believe Hamas is gone and not coming back
only then do you have to see a path to day after and
Are most Palestinians now not so sure Hamas is gone and not coming back, only then do you have to see a path to day after. And are most Palestinians now not so sure Hamas is gone and not coming back?
Let's admit there is a contradiction, an explicit contradiction between
fighting Hamas in order to finish it and negotiating with him in Qatar.
It doesn't work together.
I mean, if you negotiate with Hamas, it means that you can't
destroy him and vice versa
I don't think that the reason for a Gazan's not to support Hamas emanates
solely from the fear to be executed on the basis of collaboration
I think it emanates from pure natural support for this fascist neo-nazi
Sentiment that demands the killing of every single Jew.
You know, Liri Elbag, who was released from being a hostage in Gaza three days ago,
told her father this morning that there are two million Hamas supporters in Gaza.
She said that there wasn't a single Palestinian, even an eight-year-old child, that felt sorry
for her.
I mean, just imagine the fact that in order to move them, the female soldiers from the
tunnels or the apartments where they have been held during the last 15 months, they
had to be dressed as Muslim women because had Palestinians seen them,
they would have lynched them.
They lynched each and every Israeli they catched on October 7th.
I mean, Hamas was the most moderate component in Gaza because they actually prevented innocent
Gazans from lynching female former soldiers.
So to be honest, I don't think it's merely about collaboration.
And I think that the Israeli Western idea of trying to unseat one popular party and
to be the kingmaker of a new moderate Palestinian or a new moderate Arab, it's doomed to fail
because that was exactly the case in Lebanon
in 1982.
Israel invaded Lebanon in order to unseat the PLO, the Palestinian organization, and then
Begin and Sharon tried to cause the election of a new moderate Christian president and
it ended up in a bloodshed.
And I think the conclusion, by the way, that was a conclusion by the Israeli left, not
by the Israeli right, but I think the left was right in this case, that we should be
humble.
We cannot decide for our neighbors who would lead them.
And if the Palestinians, both in the West Bank and in Gaza, want at this current step in
2025, a murderous regime or a terrorist-sympathizer regime in Ramallah, in Judensom area, I think
we should respect it and accept it.
And we should fight it, of course, but we shouldn't imagine that somewhere there is
a moderate Palestinian authority. The most
popular moderate Palestinian that we would accept that does not support
paying murderers has 2% in the public opinion in Judea and Samaria.
Hamas enjoys something like 40-50%. If there were an election today in the West
Bank and Hamas were on the ballot, do you think they would win? I have no doubt that's the reason why there aren't elections in 2006 Hamas was elected
Hamas didn't take over Gaza. I mean it threw its opponents from the roofs of Gaza
But he had an argument he won the election
President Abbas from a fatah from the PLO
So fatah which is a faction of the PLO, which is effective to the PLO was.
Running Gaza in the West bank and Abu Mazen Mahmoud Abbas is still today, the
president of the Palestinian authority.
The Palestinian authority governed over the West bank in Gaza.
And in 2006, there were elections for legislative elections right exactly in the Palestinian
Authority and Hamas won a majority in the legislative body with them the they were supposed
to be able to choose a prime minister right exactly because they won a majority in the
legislative body the Palestinian Authority and then what happened and those were the
last elections because Abbas President Abbas remained in office,
refused to actually give Hamas the power he deserved from the results of the election.
Hamas took over Gaza in 2007.
Outside of the Democrats, I mean they just forced themselves.
They forced themselves, but they justified it according to the...
They argued they won the election.
Exactly.
And the only reason why there isn't a Hamas government in Judea and
Samaria and Hamas brigades in I know 10 minutes from Jerusalem and 15 minutes from Tel Aviv
is because Israel refused Hamas to be in office and president Abbas wanted to stay in office like
yet another politician but it doesn't make Abbas the alternative for two reasons.
One practically, if he couldn't defeat Hamas even in the city of Jenin in Judea and Samaria
and the IDF had to invade Jenin again and again and again, there is no reason to think
why he would succeed in doing it in Gaza, which is, I don't know, it's the political
base of Hamas. It's the political base of Hamas.
It's the birthplace of Hamas.
And the second thing is the ideological and moral.
As long as the Palestinian Authority pays 7% of its annual budget to the murderers of
babies, to terrorists, the more Jews you kill, the more salary you get. As long as it happens, we would not replace one monstrous terrorist organization in one
failing terrorist organization.
So it sounds like you have very little confidence in the Palestinian Authority's ability to
govern.
Between the lines, yes.
Yes.
Reading between the lines.
You don't have confidence in the Palestinian Authority
with Abbas's ability to govern Gaza.
Either he would pander, I think is what you're saying,
to accommodate Hamas or he'll get rolled by Hamas.
Exactly.
So what then is the political future in Gaza
for the Palestinians?
And I guess that's my first question and related is,
has Israel done any planning on this regard?
Yeah, Israel tried to have a pilot in specific parts of Gaza to give hamulas, you know, it's a
huge family tribes in villages, in towns in Gaza, to actually provide humanitarian aid.
They were shot in their heads 12, 24 hours after they were exposed.
So you first have to dismantle Hamas and only then something happened will flourish.
But I'll tell you something about the war because it's interconnected.
Many people in Israel claim that the war has ended.
And I agree.
This specific war has ended.
The war according to which Israel invades and conquers a specific place in Gaza
and then evacuates it and coming back and evacuating again and coming back, while providing
humanitarian aid that falls to the hand of Hamas, thus giving him a one billion shekel
budget because he sells the commodities to its citizens and then gets
the money to pay salaries.
This scheme has ended.
This war failed.
If we want to win the war, it should be changed.
And the first and foremost ingredient is changing the way the humanitarian aid is provided.
You don't just send trunks to Gaza hoping that somehow a miracle
would happen and it will just get to the hands of the poor and the miserable
citizens of Gaza without going through Hamas, but you take an area, let's say
northern Gaza, you clean it from terrorists, then you get citizens' approval to actually come back after they
are detected, and then you provide them through the IDF or American companies, you provide
them the humanitarian aid, and thus you create a Hamas-free zone area in parts of Gaza, and
then you go to another area and another area till you
end your mission.
That's what Israel should do.
It didn't happen.
But the reason it didn't happen is because President Biden decided on the third day of
the war that while Israel would fight Hamas in one hand, on the other hand, it would provide
him funding and money.
All this money goes to the hands of Hamas, funding the salaries.
That's the reason why no one even thinks about having an alternative in Gaza, because they
pay all the salaries.
So let's imagine that Israel stops providing cigarettes to its enemies.
Amazing things would happen.
I hope that once the hostage deal is ends, President Trump will unleash hell on Gaza
as he promised, not via an atomic bomb or yet another F-16 bombardment, but through
cutting the humanitarian aid and reshaping it to a level that it's given permanently on a daily basis, but not
provided through Hamas in areas that are Hamas free zones.
I want to ask you about a report.
Ronan Bergman has been reporting on two appendices to the deal that have not been made public,
according to Ronan and I guess others,
one of which says, and I quote here,
after the last hostage release of stage one on day 42, the Israeli forces will begin their withdrawal and complete it no later than day 50.
Close quote.
Now, whether or not the parties complete their negotiations over the terms of phase two. What are Israelis to make of this?
Prime minister Netanyahu made a strong case, which I thought was compelling about
not withdrawing from Philadelphia back in May, which is the corridor there
bumping up against Egypt because that was a pathway through which Hamas was able
to get a lot of its supplies over the previous decade and a half.
And I take your point that the refusal to withdraw
from Philadelphia did not alone blow up the deal
and the negotiations from last summer,
but it definitely became a sticking point.
And if you were to believe this appendix
or the reporting about this appendix,
it sounds like Israel really is getting out of Philadelphia.
Exactly.
Now, my legal commentary as a former student of law is exactly as you read it.
Once it's written in an unconditional way, it means that Israel has to withdraw from
Philadelphia corridor up to eight days after the release of the last hostage.
Having said that, the Israeli interpretation of this clause is that it was given only in
order to save face for Hamas that demanded Israel's withdrawal from Philadelphia Corridor,
and it's not legally binding to do it.
The proof is that the first phase of the deal is 42 days long, whereas the wish-roll is to be finished, to be completed only in
eight days after, which means that from a legal perspective, it's not part of the first
stage.
To be honest, legal perspective is something interesting, but I don't think Israel and
Hamas would meet in the district court in, I don't know, in Nazareth in order to settle the dispute between them.
So at the end of the day, when we get to the last days of the deal, I guess Hamas would
say, if you don't give us guarantees that you withdraw from Philadelphia Corridor,
I would not release the last 11 hostages that are to be released in the last day of this
deal.
So Israel is in a problem.
I would say something different though, that while President Biden wouldn't allow Israel
to reenter Philadelphia corridor, I guess President Trump would allow.
So if I have to give an excuse for this con confession, maybe this is it. But yes, there is no way to settle between the prayers
Prime Minister Netanyahu is devoted
for the Philadelphia corridor and what is written there.
On an episode we did the day of the first hostage release
of this deal with Yossi Klein Halevi and Wendy Singer.
Yossi said Israel should do this deal.
It should do whatever deal needs to do to get all the hostages out.
And then Israel should be done negotiating for hostage releases that this has gotten
out of control, that Israel releasing if this full deal is implemented, something
like 18, 1900 Palestinian prisoners is just given the ratio is like, you know,
50 prisoners per Israeli
hostage and then it could get up even much higher it's only going to encourage
and incentivize more and more taking of Israeli hostages and it just this this
needs to end that Israel has a responsibility to get all these hostages
home and do whatever it can and then it can no longer negotiate and I didn't
push back on him in that conversation
I wish I would have you'll see I hope you're listening
But then and I'm just gonna leave it and then I heard from some hostage families who were
Put off by what you'll see said because they're like, what is he talking about? Like who is he to declare?
You know, okay, so we'll get all these people home But in the future we won't negotiate anymore like who knows what the circumstances will be who knows what the conditions will be if
Israelis are taken hostage we do whatever do to get them home period
full stop we don't like just make some declaration that we're never
negotiating again what is your reaction to that you know there is a question
when whether can God can create a stone that he cannot lift right so this is the
Israel equivalent of it there was an attempt made by a former president of the Supreme Court to actually write a bill.
The Israeli prime ministers, Olmert, Barak and Netanyahu, had asked him to do it in order
to prevent, to tie the hands of future Israeli governments so they can release I think only one, up to nine terrorists
in exchange for one Israeli hostage.
The idea behind it was that if there is a legislation, Hamas or Hezbollah or Iran would
know that they have no incentive to kidnap Israelis.
Kidnapping is a very costly terrorist act. It's way easier to try and kill Israelis rather than to kidnap them.
But they wouldn't have an incentive to kidnap Israelis because the commodity would be degraded.
I believed in this idea for many years and I stopped to believe in it.
Why?
For two reasons.
One, there is almost always a case in which there are Israeli hostages.
Over the last 50 years, I think there were only five years, four years without Israeli
hostages somewhere in the Middle East. So it's always sensitive. It's always not behind
the curtain. There is a family that says, you're kidding my own son. Don't implement the rules retroactively.
Start it from the next hostage.
This is one thing.
And the second, that even when Gilad Shalit was released, because the report was handed
to Prime Minister Netanyahu prior to the release of Gilad Shalit, so there was an agreement
to legislate it once he's back in Israel.
And Gilad Shalit came back and nothing happened
because governments don't like their hand to be tied
even if they tie their own hands.
And you know what?
I'm happy that it didn't happen.
Let's imagine that there was a legislation.
There had been a legislation, I don't know, in 2015
and then October 7th would come.
I promise you that the Israeli parliament would have convened and changed the legislation.
So Israel would not have only made dramatic concessions to Hamas, but would change legislation
for the demands of a terrorist organization.
So it needs a deep cultural change in the Israeli society, which in my opinion will not necessarily happen,
and not the legislation.
What about imposing capital punishment
on Palestinian terrorists
so that they're no longer valued to be traded
and sought after by Hamas?
I mean, according to the Israeli law,
there is an option to actually execute terrorists.
It never happened.
For many reasons, in the Jewish state, I don't think guillotines are the best ornament.
And I think there is a death penalty.
Terrorists are killed at the crime scene.
It happens most of the times.
There is a phrase, a verb in Israel, saying that a terrorist was neutralized. What
is neutralized? It was invented in 2015, 2016. It means something in the vague area between
shot and wounded and shot and killed. I think Israelis don't want to know. And in my opinion,
the only conclusion from this thing is that a terrorist, it's easy for me to say, I served in the IDF radio, so I'm not a military expert.
But I think that the Israeli army should encourage its soldiers to kill terrorists
the moment they see them.
And it would solve so many problems and so many tragedies that we see these days.
Two more questions for you, Amid, before I let you go.
I know it's late there.
There's news, but there's not news.
There's a recording of President Trump talking about
in the near to medium future, depopulating part of Gaza.
I mean, the wording of what he says is,
it sounds like in service of rebuilding Gaza,
that you just have to clean up.
Clean up. Clean up Gaza.
Clean up Gaza, that a lot of Palestinians
need to be relocated to Egypt or Jordan.
So my first question is,
when President Trump raises these things,
it's true sometimes he articulates provocative ideas
and it stirs up a lot of reaction
and then things just kind of fizzle and return to normal,
and sometimes not.
I mean, we're having debates right now in this country,
in the United States about issues that could have easily
just been a provocative trial balloon that he was sending up
that have now turned into real policy debates.
So which of those, which category do you put it in?
I think it's way more serious than it looks.
And I see the fingerprints of Israeli hands
on this initiative.
There are two leading ideas within the Israeli right and the Israeli cabinet
in order to solve the Gaza problem once and for all.
One is to take a territory to annex parts of Gaza as a retaliation and as a deterrence,
because for fundamentalist Muslims around us,
blood and suffering is not something
that takes a heavy toll.
Ground is.
You're basically saying that the symbolism
of the Palestinians actually having less land
to themselves than they had on October 6th is the point.
That's a policy implication that you want the Arab world
and the Muslim world to understand.
Otherwise, it's an insurance.
I mean, you know, in 1947, Arabs declared a war on the Jewish state, the newborn Jewish
state, and they ended up the war with, I think, one-third of the state of Israel lost for
them, of the land of Israel.
Second, in 1967, they initiated the war and they lost Sinai, Golan Heights, and the West
Bank and Jerusalem.
But from 1973 onwards, the international community prevented Israel from implementing
its so-called occupation.
So Egypt and Syria and Lebanon and Hezbollah and Hamas know that they can initiate war
against Israel, cause heavy damage, maybe taking parts of the land of Israel, but if
they lose, the international community will take care of the entity named as their land.
So if we break it and we see it was broken, Israel took parts of Syria, Turkey took parts
of Syria. Turkey took part of Syria. So the former borders set by European
diplomats a hundred years ago are no longer sacred by the U.S., neither by Biden nor by Trump,
who for instance accepted the annexation of Golan Heights to Israel. So if you take land from Gaza, which never existed by the way, so you don't take land
from a recognized state in the UN, you signal to the Muslim world that declaring a war against
Israel comes at a cost.
So this is one option.
The second price that is very heavy for our enemies to pay is if population moves. I'm not
speaking about forced transfer of population. I'm speaking about allowing
Gazans what we allow Dan or Emmet or anyone else who listens to this podcast
the option to immigrate to find better life in a different place. Now I'm not a
big fan of the idea of moving those refugees to Gaza or to Egypt or Jordan
because Jordan suffers from a big share of Palestinian population.
Most of the population of Jordan is Palestinian and it's governed by a Hashemite kingdom,
which is non-Palestinian.
And Egypt is an ally of Israel these days.
They are terrified by the option of yet another few millions of Muslim brotherhoods that try
to shake the foundations of the country.
But I think President Trump is considering these days, I reported this evening, offering
Albania in Europe to take 100,000 Gazans.
Indonesia is an option.
Turkey is an option.
Canada agreed to accept 5,000 families.
And you know, a family in Gaza is not like in New York City.
You know, it's quite big.
If President Trump takes it as a project, it's going to be very, very interesting.
Last question.
If Israel proceeds with phase two of the deal, which apparently they have to be negotiating imminently, or should be, if they implement phase two of the deal, do
you think the Israeli government survives?
Most chances it fails unless there is an agreement that, I mean, unless the war is not to end.
As long as the price is with terrorists, for instance prolonging the ceasefire
for yet another two or three weeks, it can barely survive. If Netanyahu actually gives the card of
ending the war, his government is to collapse immediately and Israel will go to the polls.
To be honest, from what I hear on a daily basis from the most senior figures in Israel,
I don't think that they take it into account.
They want to relaunch the fight against Hamas as long as this hostages ends, and thus getting
the hostages in different ways.
Maybe give them another to hit them back and to frighten
them to death that Trump is not Biden and he's going to let Israel go wild and do whatever
it wants, thus forcing them to give the hostages, etc.
But I don't think the plan is to end the war in a few weeks.
So you don't think the war is ending, just to be clear, because there are many people
on that date on January 19th that were operating with the conventional wisdom was this is effectively
the beginning of the end of the war.
And that is not your view.
In my opinion, it's the end of the last war.
But a new method of war would come.
This is my humble opinion.
But to be honest, I'm not fully aware of the X factor, which is Iran.
When Prime Minister Netanyahu meets
President Trump probably next week in Washington, I don't know if he gives
Netanyahu permission and ammunition and an umbrella of anti-air missile protection
in order to attack Iran. I don't know what Netanyahu will do but I don't think
it's something we know and can take into our calculations.
Okay. Amit Sego, we will leave it there. I know it's something we know and can take into our calculations.
Okay, Amit Sego, we will leave it there.
I know it's late.
Thank you, as always, for taking the time
and look forward to having you back soon.
Thank you so much, Dan.
Good night.
That's our show for today.
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