Chapo Trap House - 1053 - Graham Crackers feat. Derek Davison (7/13/26)

Episode Date: July 14, 2026

DIVA DOWN! We pay our respects to Lindsay Graham, a man who died doing what he loved. We then tour some recent geopolitical conflicts, with the Ukraine war in a continuing stalemate despite recent drone innovations and the Iran War back in full swing. We also talk about a few fun cultural topics, such as Connor McGregor’s loss, Boosie Badazz allegedly trying to bribe Jacob Wohl, and the continuing story of Kash Patel. CHUNKS IS COMING! Get your tix to the streaming premiere of CHUNKS on July 19, available on-demand after: https://www.patreon.com/chunkstv CHAPO LIVE - NYC - NOV 6. - TEN YEARS IN THE ZONE Chapo & friends will be live at New York’s Society for Ethical Culture on Friday November 6th. Tickets are going fast, get yours now! https://link.dice.fm/zaf99528079e

Hello, everybody. A quick promo before we start. It is just six days until the premiere of Chunks on Patreon.com slash Chunks TV. Chunks, of course, is our new comedy anthology feature film with short films from the pot about list boys, Ruby McAllister, Nick Mullen and Saul from YouTube, episode one, Sandy Honig, Pierce Campion, and Claywoman. It is 80 minutes of yucks and spoofs for you at Patreon.com slash Chunks TV available. Worldwide stream premiere at 8 p.m. Eastern Time this Sunday, July 19th, and available VOD for perennial access afterwards at patreon.com slash chunks TV this Sunday, July 19th. Will and Felix, you just attended the live premiere on Friday. Yeah, you know, I just, first, first thing, first thing I want to say is chunks. Chunks. Chunks. No, it was really cool seeing this in a theater. It was fantastic. Just like to see it. It's a real thing. It looked great. each one of the shorts was phenomenal. They were different, but there's a theme running through all of them,

whether it was intentional or not. Really funny stuff. Congratulations to Chris and Amber. They killed it as producers on this picture. But if you like the show, you like any of our funny guests we had over the course of our history, then I think you will love chunks. It is fantastic work.

And I just want to congratulate Chris, Amber, and everyone who directed, produced, starred in each one of these. short comedy films. It was really, really fun. And I think you guys are really going to love it. Yeah, I went into this completely blind. I only knew the premise of one of the shorts. And, you know, I will say quite frankly that, like all of you, I have watched a billion trillion fucking short form comedy things. You know, I've watched a lot of great ones. I've watched a lot of bad ones. There's a lot out there. whether they are on Instagram reels or

you know someone's main thing and it is a format that quite frankly even the funniest ones they suffer from a saminess

that afflicts the entire medium one of the things that delighted me the most about this was I can honestly say these were completely novel, every single one of them. In the way they looked, in their tenor, everything was incredibly well made. I laughed out loud at every single one of them.

And most importantly, at least for me, I don't even think the harshest critic could say that these are comparable to one of the most uniform mediums that exist today. So just again, amazing work by Amber and Chris putting this all together. And by every single chunk that came together there to form the larger chunks. Well, thank you guys. I'm super glad that you enjoyed it. Obviously, Will and Felix have been kind of silent partners on this, giving us a wide berth to put the thing together after we pitch the concept to them.

So obviously their approval means a lot. But I hope that all you guys out there are in a listener land, are excited about what we've got to show you. And I hope you guys enjoy it this Sunday, July 19th, Patreon.com slash Chunks TV. And while we're promoing, we've got a live show in New York City, November 6th. That show is selling out rapidly.

The tickets are on sale now. I'll personally apologize a bit for some of our snafus with getting everything right on the Dice app last week. That was as frustrating for me as it is, for some of you, I'm sure. But everything's on sale now. The ticket link will be in the bio. November 6th, New York City. We are coming for you.

That's my promos. Hello, everybody. It's Monday, July 13th, and this is your Chapo. On today's episode, we're once again joined by our good friend Chief Chappo. Global Affairs correspondent, Derek Davison. You know him from Foreign Exchanges, American Prestige. Derek is back in the house to take us on a tour of conflict around the world. But before we begin today, Derek, you have a question from the world of sport.

Yeah, I'm using, I'm pulling my repeat guest privilege to ask you guys a question. It's for Felix. What's the deal with this Conner-Regger fight? Like, I saw the video of it and I gather like he blew out his knee or they think he blew out his knee on like his first jump kick or whatever he was trying to do. It was really like one of those moves. Like the, what's the tweet? Like, watch this, you know, like you just move and it's not clear what you're trying to do. But I see a lot of people claiming that this was. like a throne fight or that he was already heard and knew about it and there was some kind of shenanigans going on here. Do you know anything about this? Like I've just, I don't, I wasn't following that part of it. I don't think it's a throne fight. I mean, McGregor has fucked up that. His legs are really fucked up. I think Connor McGregor, he potentially, it's an Achilles situation where at his birth, he was dipped into a fluid that makes him a vile rapist. that like knocks out old men. But then his knee,

he was dipped by his knee, like his mom's, and his knee. And that was the only part of his body that wasn't like evil. So as he was doing all these things, his knee was like, we have to,

like this is, we have to stop the rest of his body. It's really bad. But we're just one knee. So they've repeatedly, there's two fights in a row now for McGregor where he has blown up his knee. And,

um, To give you some more serious context about the idea that this would be fixed or predetermined, that really wouldn't make sense because the narrative for this fight that was being pushed really hard by WME, UFC, and Jimmy Fallon and all their other allies in the media, was that this was Connor McGregor's redemption fight. Of course, they wouldn't mention that part of that redemption is that, he lost a civil fucking rape trial.

But there was this whole narrative about like, oh, he's back, he's serious again. This is like the McGregor we all fell in love with. He's done with like all the partying and the bullshit. He even before the fight one of his longtime rivals, Dustin

Poillier, got arrested and while getting arrested, used the soft end word. And McGregor did this fake magnanimous thing. It had been, of going like, oh, I've been there. Like, Dustin, you just need to get help like I did. And it's like, I don't think it's good to like call a security guard the soft A& word,

but it's like not like raping a woman, which is like what you did. And you're trying to make them sound like the same thing. But anyway, McGregor is 38 years old. He spent the last five years juicing and doing cocaine and committing horrible crimes. like these are it's dependent on the person it's dependent on what they do with it but once you tear ACL MCL PCL meniscus it will be a liability and it will become much more of liability the older you get one thing that really did not help is the fact that during McGregor's five year long lost weekend was that he was juicing a lot what is the reason that that MMA

love steroids and testosterone so much. It's not that it makes you so much better. It's that this is a sport where it's incredibly easy to get injured. And taking TRT or steroids helps you recover from injury immeasurably faster. Presumably to return to sports, McGregor had to cycle off. And being a 38-year-old who was probably doing steroids in addition to whatever else he was doing during those five years, when you are doing steroids or tear-tree,

you kind of have to cycle on and cycle off for the rest of your life because your body very logically goes, oh, I don't have to produce testosterone anymore. Right. Which in turn makes recovering from injury much harder. The final thing with the idea that the spinning kick and shit like that, that indicates a fixed fight, McGregor is always thrown stupid kicks.

like that. It was really just so awkward looking. Like, I'm like, what were you? Like, if that had landed, what were you going to do after you, like, hit the ground? Well, he has landed kicks like that before. But to give you some context, okay, McGregor definitely knew his knee was fucked up going into the fight. You could see a look of, like, despair when he was watching Patty Pimbleau fight right

before him. He could tell it was fucked up going in. But every champion or former champion, which McGregor is, has to be delusional to be successful. And McGregor probably did do some like fucking idiotic, the secret stuff where he's like, oh, instead of making my, you know, complete liability of a shredded leg a weakness, I'm going to kick with that leg and knock out Max Holloway in 15 seconds to show that I'm not afraid of anything. And then he probably just like irrevocably shredded it, like beyond repair. I mean, the real thing is for people don't know, it is not part of the official rules of

MMA that fighters have to go out and touch gloves at the start of around. Guys who truly hate each other don't do it. And it's not against the rules to fake it like you're going to touch gloves and then throw a strike. But it's considered very poor form, which is what McGregor did. I didn't see the fight. He came out and pretended like he was going to touch gloves and then threw an actual blow.

Through is a way to put it. He missed by about nine miles. But yeah, no. So in the course of like, you know, cheating within what is the allowed rule set, he probably tore like eight ligaments.

Max Holloway, I love, Max Holloway is one of my favorite fighters. People will go, oh, how can he be one of the greatest ever? He has five nine losses. He's fought incredible competition. He's one of the best ever to watch, at least. Anyway, Holloway is a really, like, sweet-seeming guy.

But after they called the fight, you know, a minute in TKO due to injury, you could hear Holloway talk to McGregor when they were in, doing that post fight prohug thing. He goes, why the fuck did you come back, man? And I don't think he meant it that way, but that is probably the meanest thing you could say to him in that moment. Because McGregor's a bullshit artist, but he did think like, oh, my God, like, I'll beat this guy that everyone loves, this other former champion, everyone's going to forget about

the horrible crime I committed. The Kenahan cartel will stop trying to kill me. my life will be perfect again. And then in one minute, this is the end of his career. You can't do another comeback after this. Is he going to do another? He's going to come back when he's 43.

Guess what? My knees are even better now. And Max is right. Why the fuck did you come back? I mean, besides the obvious, which is you committed a heinous assault against a woman and you're trying to make everyone forget and try to make everyone love you like it's fucking 2012 again.

But anyway, best of luck to McGregor's inner demons. I don't know what gun laws are like in Ireland, but Connor, it is time to envision the barrel in your mouth. I'll see you in hell, you rapist bog ape. Well, nice. that's everything I wanted to hear. Thank you. A perfect easy transition as long as you're talking about people in hell. Yeah. Man, oh man.

Did we have a good one over the weekend? It's just like, you know, look, there really aren't many things to look forward to waking up in the morning. But waking up Sunday morning to find out that Lindsay Graham is no bullshit dead. And you know what? Like, on the show, we have not, I don't think we've talked barely at all about Mitch McComach. Connell being dead. I mean, he's sort of in Schrodinger's box right now.

He's, yeah, they popped him up. I mean, they're like weekend at Bernie saying, Bernie and him. Mitch McConnell, if I'm not mistaken,

he's in the exact same situation as Chris Rock was and down to earth. Maybe they put him into Connor McGregor's body. Maybe Connor McGregor, like, he, before the fight, he was like,

um, I don't, know, like playing with electrical while. He was jamming a fork into a socket. And they were like, Mitch, you've got another shot at this thing. You're going to inhabit Connor's body. I will say absolute diva be, like all time diva behavior by Lindsay Graham dying and stealing all of Mitch McConnell's shine on that. Seriously. It was just like, not so fast, honey. Like McConnell released that photograph and some and his statement and didn't say anything about Lindsay Graham and his statement either.

So like a mutual, mutual diva behavior. No, but I will say like I've, I've not really been too, too on the Mitch McConnell death watch because to me it seems like, the dude's like 108 years old. Like he's been dying for a long time now.

And it's like sort of like one of those things like when Henry Kissinger dies. It's just like, oh, wow. At least he's dead. But like, I mean, there's another demon that just like absolutely won and died at like a hundred. So like there's not really much. I mean, you can put that pack in the air, you know, enjoy it. But there's like not really much juice to be squeezed from that one.

But man, oh man, Lindsay Graham, first of all, 71. 71. It's not that old. I mean, old enough to die. But the thing is like, he was loving life. He was hot as a pistol. He was about to make his 64th appearance on Meet the Press. I mean, come on.

steal that away from the man. Dude, I normally don't, like, when I am extremely cautious of all the accounts that are called like, you know, the OSIN accounts that I agree with, but there's still OSIN accounts to their idiots. The guys who are like, oh, he got like carbonized by a fucking Russian ballistic missile. Normally I would be like, that's stupid. Like, there's no way. They hit him with the Havana gun, but they dialed the setting up to like a thousand. Yeah. But the conspiracy right is he visited, so he visited a Ukrainian drone factory and then like a day later it got hit by Russian ballistic missiles. Here's the only reason I'm entertaining that now is Lindsay Graham is 12, was 12 years younger than Dennis Hastert.

Speaking of sex criminals involved in combat sports, Dennis Hastert was also a wrestling coach. But anyway, Dennis Hastert. morbidly obese, 12 years older than Lindsay Graham, 80, like, or I think 13, 84 years old. And like, he probably still has enough poll to, you know, get the infant, uh, orphan stem cells, but not like Lindsey Graham does. He's disgraced. He's just shuffling around Illinois. Lindsay Graham is like at the top of that list.

They will with Lindsey Graham, they have like a tank full of infants. It's like a seafood restaurant. They let him pick him. He is a maid man. And it's like these guys don't die at 71. That is like dying in childhood for a senator. Seriously. It's like getting polio.

It is the only reason I am possibly entertaining the idea that, you know, a MiG31 pilot who is the only officer ever commissioned from Stariostol in the last 40 years. fucking carbonized this asshole with a Kinskaw ballistic missile. But I mean, it's just too salacious to I've heard speculation that that yeah, okay, he visited the Ukrainian drone, the secret drone facility in Kiev

and then he died the next day. I've heard speculation that Russia like poisoned him or, you know, hit him with a heart attack gun. But like, are people saying that he was actually blown up with a missile and they're like, don't even have a body? And they're like, he had a heart attack. Sorry, meet the press. So I had this funny online experience because I was still awake when the story broke because I'm an insomniac.

So I saw it before I went to bed that like Haaretz had just reported that he died. And I'm like, oh, oh shit. And I got on Twitter. And I was just curious. And so I searched and like 15, 20 people. in the like 30 minutes since he died had already done some variation of the Lindsay Graham saw the light of Islam

and I'm hesitating like a resigning. Oh boy, that one will never get old. But I got like I started to laugh like thinking like Lindsay Graham imagining him converting to Islam on his deathbed and God giving him like the Reverend Lovejoy line. Like Lindsay, have you considered any of the other major religions?

They're all pretty much the same. Like we're good here. Like you don't need to do this. The Cohen call heard, you know. we've got the Ayatala Kameney. We're good. We're good. It's fine.

You don't need to do that. Yeah. So I did get a chuckle out of that, but that was a good way to go to sleep. Good message to go to sleep on. Like I said, like in my mind, Mitch McConnell has been a mummy for probably 20 years. But like, this is why Lindsay Graham dying is like, like I said, like 48 hours ago, like I said, he was hot as a pistol. He was a little firecracker. He was loving it.

He was loving life. He was in his element, man. He's got all the wars he wanted. He's got all the death. I know. I know. It's crazy. I'm like, I guess I started at the show three because he was touring that drone facility in Kiev.

And like could not be more happy with all the people that have been killed in that war. We got Iran, Gaza, Ukraine. I mean, like, that's just at the top of my head. But like, I guess like the most fitting tribute I can make to Winsie Gras. is I don't think that there is a single American politician in my lifetime more dedicated to starting wars than Lindsay Graham. Like if they're like,

I don't think there's anyone who's just like emotionally, spiritually, politically, in every way. Like all he cared about was getting the U.S. involved in war and killing hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people overseas, you know, for, you know, for whatever reason. But I mean, that, that's what he's, what he lived to do, and now he is dead.

He's one of the few people. He had made it a big project like the last few years to get a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. And there's this like strain of thought about that deal, because it's been the holy grail for so many people in Washington for so long, that the Palestinians are like a nuisance that you have to get rid of in order to facilitate the Israel-Saudi Arabia deal. So you ethnically cleanse them or whatever you need to do and then give it a little time and let that fade. And then Israel and Saudi Arabia can make their deal. I think he came out in a reverse. Like I think he wanted to get the Saudi deal done so that they could exterminate the Palestinians more efficiently without having to worry about it.

Like I really think he was, you know, his main focus was on how many people can we kill here. Like what's the maximum efficiency we can have for just committing genocide and, you know, continuing that project? over the last year or whatever. He was talking about nuking Iran. He was talking about flattening Tehran like we did to fucking Dresden or fucking Tokyo or Ehrushima. He talked about

Israel nuking the Gaza Strip. I mean, this is a guy. Those were his best moments when he really butched up and was like, yeah, yeah. They should just nuke Tehran. Oh, okay, all right. And I'm not even bringing up the Iraq War

and the war on terror because like, man, he was a little drum major. He was a guy with a twirling the at the head of the mass murder parade. And that really is how I will remember him. He was just like the most reliable cheerleader for the United States inflicting mass death and destruction overseas. Like nothing made him happier and nothing made him more angry at the thought that the United

States like would stop doing that or that would face any consequences for having done those things. Matt Petty wrote something at reason today. I saw he was circulating on Twitter about how Graham was the last of the three amigos. It was McCain, Lieberman and Lindsey Graham, who just couldn't, never found a war that they didn't want to fight. He's more loathsome than the other two, I think mainly because of how he slithered his way into being Donald Trump's biggest, like, ass-kissing cheerleader. After spending the entire run-up to the 2016 election talking about if we elect Donald Trump, we're going to be, you know, we're going to go to hell in a handbasket and we'll deserve it.

Like, Trump gets elected and immediately he becomes this like complete sycophant for Donald Trump. It was that that was like the caper on everything to me, like just how repulsive this guy is. And yeah, like there's no level of like debasement or humiliation that self, you know, desecration that he wouldn't engage in if he thought it would help start another war that he could like, you know, our trumpet and giggle. and giggle about on television. Like, and like, again, like, we want to talk about, like, the senator from Tel Aviv, Lindsay Graham was absolutely that guy.

I mean, you can obviously tell why he felt such a connection to the state of Israel. But man, oh man, like, what a fucking career that guy's had. Like, I mean, he, and if hell is real, he is surely there right now.

You would like to think so, yeah. The Iranians today are weaker than they were before. the terrorist machine, the mothership of terrorism is sinking. That mothership of terrorism has a hole in it, and it's going to the bottom, and the captain is dead, and we're better off. What comes next? I hope and pray it's better. I believe it will be.

Well, I wanted to ask about, like, the circumstances leading up to his death is that he was, as I said, touring a drone factory in. in Kiev and then died, you know, old people to travel, you know, it's always stuff. But Derek, like, it does seem like, open with our sort of tour of conflict around the war, we haven't talked about the Ukraine war for a minute. Yeah. It does seem like there's been a number of exchanges recently that, like, would seem to point to, like, missile and drone attacks on both Russia, on both Moscow and Kiev. It would seem that both sides are sort of, I don't know, escalating their way out of a stalemate.

or expanding the aperture of targeting to previously sort of, I don't know, untouched areas in both countries? Yeah. So, I mean, I think there's a couple of things here. For the Ukrainians, it's expanding the aperture of the conflict in order to impress Trump, which seems to have worked. But the Ukrainians have developed, you know, over the last few years, a pretty effective drone program, especially, you know,

they're getting better at building longer range drones or at least carrying out strikes inside Russia. I mean, I hesitate to say that, you know, they've got drones now that are going, you know, 2,000 kilometers from the border or whatever to strike targets inside Russia. Because it's always some possibility that, I mean, we've seen them carry out like infiltration attacks in the past and hitting, you know, targets inside Russia from within Russia. That's all speculative. but the consensus has been, like the media consensus has been,

oh, well, they've got these drones now that can go, you know, all the way to, like, Western Siberia, which is quite a long range. So if they're able to do that, then they're able to do that. They're also supposedly developing their own ballistic, long-range ballistic missile capabilities. And so they've got weapons now,

or at least they're claiming to have weapons that can hit, and they have been hitting targets inside Russia, primarily oil facilities, but they, you know, they bombed. They attacked St. Petersburg during the big Russian Davos, you know, summit economic forum that Vladimir Putin hosted. They've attacked Moscow on a couple of occasions. And I do think, like, there is some military utility to attacking oil facilities

to degrade the Russian military, kind of logistically complicate the Russian military's operations. But more to the point, this has been intended to get Donald Trump clapping like a seal at all the wonderful explosions that are happening in Russia. And that seems to be working. Like there was the last time he met with Zelensky was during the NATO summit last week. But the time before that at the G7 summit, he met with Volodymyr Zelensky, you know, on the sidelines of that.

And by all accounts, he's been impressed by these attacks that Ukraine is carrying out. you no longer see him talking about like forcing the Ukrainians to eat shit in the settlement on Russia's terms or you know like pressuring them to uh to do a deal or threatening to take to stop selling them weapons or any of the things that he has done in the past when he's been upset with Zelensky. Uh, he now seems pretty happy and and I think a lot of that is just, you know, this is this is this is fun TV for him to watch or it's fun stories for him to listen to. Uh, and he's cool with that. Uh, to the point where you've had, like Russian officials almost acting jilted in a way. Like Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister was like, well, this isn't what you told us last year when you had the summit with Putin in Alaska. Like, what's going on, man? Are you still interested in mediating? And they've seemed kind of bummed out by this turn in Trump's approach.

And consequently, as a result of taking these repeated attacks on, you know, within Russia, they have in the last few weeks after threatening. I mean, they said they were going to do it. They have started bombarding Keev quite heavily, not on a nightly basis, I would say, but on a much more frequent basis than they have been hitting the capital previously. So I think that's mostly a retaliation

for what the Ukrainians have been doing. The other thing the Ukrainians have been doing is hitting Crimea quite hard. They've got, there's blackouts on the peninsula. They've got, you know, they've hit fuel, They're bombing tankers in the Sea of Azab that are trying to carry fuel to Crimea. They've really gone after, like, just cutting Russia off from Crimea, which again, has some military utility in the sense that it, you know, the Russians operations in southern Ukraine

are supported somewhat from, from Crimea. But it also has really come down hard on the population of Crimea, I think, dealing with no gas, no electricity blackouts you know it's just been I think a lot to heap on them yeah the Lavrov Lavrov sounded actually exactly like Dana White

in the post fight press conference exact same thing we spent five years on this guy you know what it's kind of a similar situation too it's not this oh my god how could this happen our super fight is ruined because of this knee problem that we've known about forever with Trump.

What did Trump do during his first term? This is always driven me crazy about Trump. And the people who say they had to vote for him to prevent, you know, World War III this time, this time after Soleimani. But especially after his policy in Ukraine during Trump one, no one remembers this. He accelerated things exponentially there. He went, he went so much further with delivering lethal aid to Ukraine so much further than the Obongler did. He sanctioned Iran, I remember, quite quite a bit more heavily than. Yeah.

Yeah. But, but, but. Did I say Iran? Sanction Russia. But Derek, my read on this has always been that just he, he, he, he enjoyed sending lethal aid to Ukraine for the same reason that. he probably enjoyed sanctioning Iran and, you know, assassinating Suleimani and everything else. It just, you know, these are the things that he imagines a cool president doing in a movie. He doesn't have some, he doesn't have any particular, like, ideological commitment to supporting Ukraine.

It's like Lindsey Graham probably said, oh, everyone's going to love this or whatever. It never seemed like something he cared about a ton. No. But the infamous meeting with Zelensky where J.D. Vance stressed him down and Trump's posture during the last general election in 2024, it just seemed like he read enough posts on truth and was like, oh, the position of my party is that like Ukraine sucks now because Joe Biden likes it. I guess I have to do that for a little bit. And then Ukraine probably was like, I mean, his thought process is very simple. I would assume that Lindsay Graham probably showed him like a video of Ukraine hitting targets within Russia.

And he went, oh, they're not losers like I thought they were. Exactly. I think it's a loser thing. Like, I think he came in feeling like Ukraine was on the back foot, which, you know, it was and arguably still is, at least in Denezka, although the front line has been largely frozen for quite some time now. But I think he came in feeling like the Ukrainians were losers. They were losing. He doesn't like to be, you know, associated with losers or people he regards as losers. And so, you know, he wanted to distance himself. But now, you know, they're bombing stuff. There's, you know, explosions happening in Russia.

Somebody showed him, you know, the two-minute snuff film like at what he was getting every day during the heat of the Iran war. And, you know, he thought, well, oh, they're winners now. it's cool. I can be on their side. Exactly. I think that's, I think that's a big part of it. Yeah. Well, given, given these sort of these escalations that are, that are happening, like, does any of it, like, stand any chance of changing the fundamental reality of the stalemate that this war has persisted in for years now? Yeah, I don't think so. I mean, the, the Russians are where they've been. I mean, there's, you know, the Institute for the Study of War, which is one of the big Ukraine cheerleading think tanks in D.C. I think did an analysis of like the first six months

of the year and said, oh, the Ukrainians actually net regain territory, which is, you know, the first time that's happened in a while over this period of time. And it was like, you know, a couple of hundred kilometers at most, like square kilometers. It's nothing. I mean, the amount of territory that's shifting around is very small. The Russians have infiltrated one of the four cities, heavily infiltrated, one of the four cities, the so-called fortress cities in Dienetsk Oblast, Constantinivka. I'm probably mangling that name. But, you know, they hold now, I think estimates are anywhere from 30 to 40 percent of that city. If they're able to expand on that or capitalize on that, it degrades the Ukrainian defensive line. I don't think that's going to be

decisive either. I mean, every time one of these cities or, you know, large towns in the East falls, there's this speculation that, oh, the Ukrainian defensive line's going to collapse now and the Russians are going to roll. That has never happened either. So I think it's pretty much locked in at this point. And the big obstacle to getting to a ceasefire is the question of this like rump portion of Dinesk that the Ukrainians still hold, which the Russians want given over to them essentially Putin wants essentially is like a good faith gesture on the part of the Ukrainians and Ukrainians aren't interested in doing that. And they're kind of stuck on that point. It's hard to see how you get them moving forward when I think each side feels like what they're

doing is put them on the brink of a major breakthrough, although I don't see it personally, but they're both in that mindset. Now, Derek, with the development of further range drone technology or potentially a ballistic program in Ukraine that allows them to hit targets in like St. Petersburg or Moscow, like deep within Russia, does that also need to be accompanied with more precise targeting data? And I guess what I'm asking is, is the United States now giving Ukraine targeting information about the places that they're hitting inside Russia? And conversely, wouldn't one expect Russia to do the same but for Iran? Yes, and yes. I mean, I think it's pretty clear the Russians were doing that for Iran or maybe still are since they're back to fighting again. But yeah, I mean, I think it's extremely likely that the U.S. has been providing or is providing Ukraine with Tanya data or at least that NATO is doing it, whether it's strictly speaking, the U.S. or somebody else in NATO handling the U.S.

the logistics of it. This was one of the reasons why the Russians made their threat a few weeks ago to really start heavily attacking Kiv, because they said they were going to target bunkers where there are Western military. They claim there are Western military personnel present. And if there are such things, then they're almost certainly they're doing targeting, you know, advising the Ukrainians on targeting information. So, you know, I think there's a direct connection there, sure. In terms of Russia, I mean, you did write last week about indications that this ongoing war and just the general nature of the United States in general has led to like what could

become potential closer collaborations between Russia and China. Did you talk about that? Yeah, this is, I mean, there was a piece in an outlet called The Insider, which is very like, it's sketchy, let's say. Michael Weiss, you guys remember Michael Weiss? You guys remember Michael Weiss? Of course. How could I forget?

Yeah. So, you know, one of the big, you know, one-time neocon stars. He's like co-founder of this place. So I take everything from there with a grain of salt. But they did a piece about, you know, kind of the extent of military cooperation, supposedly based on documents that they had been leaked to them. The extent of military cooperation between Russia and China. And it was, it's,

more intense in this telling at least than either country has acknowledged before, primarily on the level of, you know, I think technical, you know, kind of satellite warfare, satellite technology, missile technology, but the thing that was most alarming out of this and the reason that I didn't just dismiss it as propaganda was basically that a lot of it has to do with, their mutual antipathy toward a friend of the pod, Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network, which has been a big factor in helping supposedly, allegedly helping the Ukrainians deliver

these drones primarily. They're just starting to roll out their long-range missiles, I think. But delivering these drone payloads to target inside Russia. And there's been discussions, according to this piece, about ways that they could go after the Starlink network, either through cyber attacks or, you know, all the way up to actually attacking Starlink satellites in orbit, which is extraordinarily far-fetched and very unlikely to happen. But even the possibility of, you know, going down the road of satellite warfare is extremely alarming. And so, you know, it seemed worth noting. But I don't put a high

percentage on it in terms of probability. Derek, like, do we know anything? I mean, like, is there polling done on how the people of Ukraine feel about the prospects of continuing this war for like another five years? Because, like, I feel like every time I know that like the government and military is firmly behind this like, you know, fight to the last man, this like ultra-nationalist vision. But like every time I check in on it, it seems like they're like press-ganging like winos and drug addicts off the street.

and putting them in like they're now a term for it, which basically means like a single use soldier. So they get these guys and they're like, get them out to the front lines. They're like probably like coming, you know, withdrawing from like smack or something and they just sent them into a trench and they're like single use.

It's just a suicide. They're just crashed dust dummies. And like that is like a good deal of the recruitment going on to continue this war. Like how is like Ukraine? I mean like let's say Ukraine wins this war. Like what's going to be left of the country? I mean, and I think Russia is probably like,

I mean, they're doing the same thing. I mean, like, this thing is just a slaughterhouse and it just never ends. I mean, Russia has more, let's say, manpower to draw on for the single-use purpose without, like, sending press gangs out into the street to shove people into vans, which has been happening in Ukraine. There were protests just not that long ago in Lviv, I think, about these euphemistically put recruitment policies. So it's definitely an issue that people are upset about. aware of. I, you know, the long-range prognosis is like, I mean, you have an entire generation at this point of men that has been decimated in Ukraine, in Russia to an extent as well, but to a lesser extent because it's a bigger country that can absorb losses more without, you know, feeling the

same effects as Ukraine. But it's, I think it's really going to be dire what, you know, trying to put Ukrainian society together again after this. In terms of polling, like, I don't, track polling, especially here that much because I question the extent to which any of it is legitimate or can legitimately be done under these circumstances or is being

a kind of rigged to produce an outcome that this think tank or this government wants to produce. But my sense is that what is being produced suggests that most Ukrainians are in favor of a

ceasefire or an end to the war, but when you drill down to the level of what you, what is it going to take, what concessions is it going to take to actually get a ceasefire, actually get to the end of the war, you get a lot more divergence. So, for example, the idea of just giving up territory that the Russians haven't occupied yet, I don't think polls very well. I could be wrong about that, but this is based on, you know, polling that I saw probably some time ago. So maybe people's tolerance for that is changing. But I have seen polls that suggest, like, you know, majority support for a ceasefire, but when you couple that with, you know, should the government give up the rest of the Donbas to Russia aid goes down substantially.

So I think it's a bit of a mixed bag. Like, people want the war to be over, but they're not ready to necessarily just accept whatever Putin's, Vladimir Putin's terms are. It's very interesting because you'd almost say it's worse than ever, and maybe it isn't. Sometimes with war and you study war, and I've studied it so long, for years long before I did this, sometimes it's when it gets the worst. And I don't know that it's the worst right now. It's consistently bad. They lost 25,000 people were lost kids, young people last month.

And we had a month 35, two months ago. And I would say more Russians. But it's just they're people. They're people. And there's actually very little difference between the people. I mean, you know, it's like the Russians and Ukrainian people. And they can get along. But it's a nasty war.

Well, moving on from Ukrainian Russia to, you know, another war that won't end. Let's talk about Iran. We're blockading again. Like, we're doing the fucking naval blockade again. The MOU is officially kaput. It is done. KIA. And basically, like,

Every single thing that was agreed upon in that memorandum of understanding has now been 100% gone back on. Like the sanctions, the straight of hormones, like all of it. Sanctions, the blockade, the straight, everything. I mean, all the basics, like any of the stuff that was like second order that you can't even get to now. And, you know, not to chew my own horn here, like, I saw this coming a mile away. It's like, you know, I mean, like, the real gift of foresight that I have here, be like, no, it was just like, as soon as, that as soon as like the essentially the memorandum of understanding like sort of technically

ended at least immediate hostilities based on a number of concessions that the United States would have to make to Iran. It's what the combination of the fact that like the memorandum of understanding required the United States to do things.

Right. We didn't want to do. But not only that, but like that they made a deal with Trump, with Donald Trump. And I'm sure like Iran, I'm like, you're not stupid. They know who he is. But like, Throughout his entire life and career, there has never been a single contract treaty or legal judgment that Donald Trump has been subject to that he did not understand as I can do whatever I want.

And as soon as it becomes, like, as soon as he's face with the prospect that, like, that he can't do whatever he wants or is constrained in any meaningful way, he'll just pretend it doesn't exist. Right. So I think that's the thing. You couple an MOU that was written somewhat vaguely, but to the extent. extent that you can glean anything out of it, especially around the straight of Hormuz, it was the U.S. conceding that Iran basically controls the straight at this point. But there's enough, like, ambiguity in there, I guess.

I think this is mostly for the negotiators, like for J.D. and company to go back to Trump and say, look, we got a great deal, boss. Don't get mad at us. But then you couple that, like the couple of the ambiguity that I'm sure they emphasize to Trump with the fact that he just doesn't feel bound by anything and never has. And this is the one time he's negotiated a deal with somebody who's not going to just let him slide out from under it with no consequences. And I think some of what's happening here is he's just really pissed off. Like he's mad at the Iranians for not letting him do what he wants and not letting him change the channel. Like, you know, we're past, you know, the season finale already has.

happened like we're trying to move on to the next storyline like what is this bullshit just let it go and they're not doing that and i think he's increasingly frustrated and for a guy who is like of diminished capacity like diminished executive functioning whether or not you think he's in full-blown dementia which i increasingly you know i think he is uh but he's serious he's definitely got like reduced executive functioning and and you know kind of add that frustration uh to to that And I think that's what you're seeing happen with him. He's just like losing it really in real time. Well, because I think like in the negotiations, I think it was very clear like that J.D.

and company, their goal was to get Iran to give them a fig leaf that Trump could use to pretend that this was a victory. And they were very resolutely would not do that. And I think J.D. and company, they were like, they got the best that they could. And they told Trump and he was like, yeah, it's great. Wonderful victory. I'm the only president who's ever negotiated a successful ceasefire with Iran. Nobody else could do that other than me.

I think at one point he said he's the only president who's ever negotiated a ceasefire with anybody. Nobody's ever done. Nobody's ever made peace before. They've never ended a war. And he's ended, you know, 12 of them or whatever. That ceasefire meant that the Israelis would have to cease firing.

And also the United States of America could not just bomb Iran or that we'd have to like unfreeze their bank accounts and then that Iran did will effectively control the straight of Hormuz and be charging a toll for it. He was like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, not so fast. This isn't what I agreed on.

And like, even though he did technically agree to it, it doesn't matter because he never agrees to anything. Right. It's whatever's in his head at that moment. And I think, like, Derek, like, another huge aspect to, like, why this is happening now or, like, why it looks like the Iran war is going to, is restarting right now because, like,

let's be honest, like, they've already hit several commercial, commercial vessels with missiles for, you know, trying to bypass their blockade. Right. It's not back to the pre-ceasefire level, but it's definitely a war again. I don't think you can deny that. This is happening every night at this point. It must not have gone unnoticed. Like Derek, you talked about how mad Trump is at Iran. Because, like, they've pounced him. And like, they're not, they're not playing by the rules. They're not playing by the rules, which is that Trump always has to be declared the victor, no matter what happens.

it cannot have gone unnoticed that like the basically the exact same weekend that Donald Trump had his great American state fair on the national mall attended by literally tens of people that Iran had that Iran had their state funeral for the Ayatelikamani, which was the largest funeral in human history that well over a million people attended. You know Trump, he sees it, he sees it on TV. He turns on his stories. He sees Fox News is. at the National Mall going, yeah, well, maybe some people, more people will come out after work ends. But did I mention it's 100 degrees here today? Then they cut over to Tehran, a million plus people in the streets. And like, it's not just the turnout of the crowd for the, like, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the thing, like, the, the Iran, has greatly strengthened the Iranian government. And like the people of Iran are probably behind them more now than they have ever been.

And just this is not how I would categorize these countries, but to put it in terms that Trump would categorize them, the official state visitors for the state funeral for Kameenie were from a lot of, let's just say, non-bullshit countries. Right. I mean, I'm kind of kidding, but I'm kind of not. I mean, if you're Trump and you see that South Korea sent someone, you go, what the fuck? And again, for speaking to Will's point, for however far gone he is, he sees Pete Hegseth on one side. And then he sees Arachia and it's like, oh my God, can we do a fucking trade here? Yeah, I mean, I do think that's a good point. The juxtaposition of the funeral with the Great American State.

State. Well, did South Korea or Germany or whatever? Did they send a foreign delegation to the Great American? They didn't, you know. Oh, I mean, they might not have got through customs because we don't let foreigners into the country anyway. But like, yeah, I mean, that's a good point. I think that's part of it. We also know now that I guess he's really.

End end Team USA eating shit at the World Cup after he came to eat shit. After he intervened to make himself the hero of Team USA, they ate shit. Yeah, I mean, he's probably a little frustrated with that. We know now that the Israelis were feeding him intelligence, quote unquote, that the Iranians are trying to assassinate him, which caused him to have to fly back from the NATO summit on the substandard old Air Force. one instead of his luxury, Cuttery Air Force one. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I love

I saw, I love the idea that Iran at this point in July of 26 had an active plan to assassinate Donald Trump. It's like, why they want his ass alive? Seriously. Like, what's like, is there anyone who's been better? Like, if they

assassinate Trump, they might get someone in who knows what they're doing in there. Who might actually like negotiate for like, we negotiate on behalf of the interests of the United States and not just themselves or Israel. Derek. Oh my God. The Harlem Globetrotters are going to assassinate the Washington generals.

It's just like, why would Iran need to assassinate the president of the United States after they've just beat him so convincingly? It's like, it's so much better to keep him alive, pottering around, you know, like, they want to ruin him, like, holistically. If they just kill him, like, that does no benefit. to them. There's no benefit to them at all. My sense is that what the Israelis had was like chatter, assuming they had anything at all. And it does seem like there was maybe, there's maybe some minimal substance of this, that there are certain elements within the

Iranian hierarchy, like the really hard line kind of, you know, dead-eyed. I mean, they have their own dead-eyed psychos, just like the United States does, who, you know, like, want Trump dead, have wanted him dead since the Soleimani assassination. And, you know, that hasn't changed. You know, now he's responsible for killing the former supreme leaders. So it just doubles, you know, it just intensifies the desire. But there's no real plot to do anything. And the Israelis hyped this up because they, of course, wanted to undermine peace talks and

inconvenience Trump and make him mad again at the Iranians. And so they tried to manufacture some threat out of this and presented it to him. and that was where things, you know, that was how he, he wound up flying on the, the, the bullshit Air Force one instead of the cool. Yeah, just the regular Air Force one.

Yeah. I saw a lot of really funny posts from, you know, the, uh, James Lindsay types, the guys who are positioning themselves as the anti-Nic-Wentez, uh, you know,

neocon deadenders within the party, uh, who in the wake of this, they went, oh, Israel doesn't do anything for America, they just prevented the assassination of Donald Trump. Oh, thanks, guys.

Wow. Wow, that's great. We really appreciate it. I feel like I saw Scott Jennings on CNN. And he had that exact line. Like the talking points went out. It was like, for everyone who says that we don't need Israeli intelligence, they just prevented the assassination of Donald Trump, our president.

And it's just like, well, first of all, for most Americans, they're like, uh, Well, I said we could actually use it. I actually got shot at and a week later, nobody remembered. Or nobody cared. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Several times. How far do you think this is going to go, really? Yeah.

But second of all, like, this is being done in the context of like, you know, you may not like Israel, but their intelligence is so good. We don't even know how many terror attacks that they've stopped. I mean, probably probably all the ones that they started to begin with. But that's not like a couple months ago. So Israeli intelligence was that the Iranian regime was like a rotten wood. All he had to do was. Yeah.

And it would follow. Give it a shove. And it's like just like just kill the Supreme Isola. Like the people will rise up. You know, the war like the world be a cakewalk. That was the intelligence they gave to Trump like six months ago. How did that work out? Yeah.

Exactly. Exactly. Speaking of the assassination attempt, I did love this truth social post from last week. Donald Trump says, 1,000 missiles are locked and loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran with thousands of more to immediately follow

should the Iranian government act on its threat pronounced in many corners of the globe to assassinate or attempt to assassinate the sitting president of the United States. In this case, me. Orders have already been given and the U.S. military is ready-willing and able for one year period of time,

subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran. Praise be to Allah, President Donald J. Trump. Like, yeah, I mean, they set up the Dr. Strange Love device, but it's for, you know, Trump getting offed. Yeah. I love that too, just like the idea that you would have to announce to people like, hey, if you kill me, there will be consequences. If you assassinate the president of the United States, we're going to do something we've never done before, which is. just bomb your country.

Well, I mean, this is, this is where I want to think of an extra day. It is, it is just, um, it's very ineffectual middle school principal move. Hey, if anyway, if any students, uh, pull my pants down and take a picture of my penis, exposing my inflamed urethra, you're looking at it in school suspension. Gamby. Just so you know, that's against the rules. Gamby, Gamby of, of course, Ron wanted to kill you. You see how poor their economy is?

Yeah. That was, there was a really moving speech at community's funeral where I think Arachchi said, when I drank gin, I used to go beast mode. RIP to that lady from vice-prin-souls, man. I was really sad when I found out she died. What a great show. I guess like, where I wanted to go with this is that like, obviously, I saw that Trump was going to restart. I mean, this war, there's no way shape or form of the United States or Israel would ever have abided by the ceasefire terms. It happened quicker than I thought it would.

But now that we're back to this, we're back to this, but like, here's the thing. Let's say, let's say Iran did try to assassinate Donald Trump. Let's say they fucking succeeded. Oh, the gloves are coming off. No, it's going back to like the same level of intensity that the war started at. i.e. nothing that will actually stand any chance of changing the balance of power in the Persian Gulf. That will overthrow the Iranian government. We cannot displace the Iranian government through purely military means. Everybody knows this. And for Donald, and for Trump and like the hawks now to just be like, oh, they don't even know.

We're going to, we're going to bomb them even more than we bombed them before. Less we forget that we kicked off this war by blowing up a school full of children. Right. Of school girls. Yeah. Like, it's just like, oh, like, Iran hasn't even seen how evil and depraved we can be fighting this war. It's like, well, they have. They saw it immediately. And like, that hasn't changed anything other than, you know, all the mid-sized coffins that they've had to be produced. But like, it's very clear, like, we're going to be right back in the position we were before this memorandum of understanding, which is being stuck, like, bombing Iran, trying to impose this idiotic blockade. And by the way, sorry, here's the second follow-up from Trump just today.

This is just from today on True Social. The Hormuz Strait is open and will remain open with or without Iran. We are reinstating the Iranian blockade so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the strait. The USA will be, from this point forward, known as the guardian of the Hormuz Strait. But as such, in a matter of fairness, will be reimbursed at a raise of 20% on all cargo. ship for any and all costs necessary to the job of 20%. Wait, wait, wait, wait, 20%.

20%, 20% 20% on all cargo shipped. Not just, okay, I want to get to the 20%, but also just like the idea that he like saw Iran's working strategy and it's like, why don't we just do that? Like what are the cases? Is he, one of the chances he went to Pete Higsef and was like, um,

do you want to try out this mosaic warfare shit? Yeah. Like, okay, for those keeping track, we started the Iran war to prevent them from acquiring or from building, uh, nuclear weapons, which they didn't have. So like,

and weren't doing before the war. As it comes to going to the war, they closed the strait of Hormuz and imposed a blockade on it. and are now prior, prior to this latest, you know, development, we're charging a toll. And then we had to continue doing the war to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before we started the war. And then we had to continue fighting the war because it is,

it is basically unacceptable that Iran could charge a toll on commercial traffic through international waters. And now to continue this war... We're going to charge. We're going to charge its toll for commerce through international waters. I mean, you can't get that from anywhere else. Like, only the mind of true genius could produce this. By the way, what was Iran charging?

What was there to like? I mean, yeah, like, I mean, they charged, supposedly charged some ships during the war. Like, the MOU was pretty clear on the, on the toll issue, which was Iran wouldn't charge tolls for 60 days. But they would control traffic through the strait, like all the traffic through the straight has to be, you know, checked with Iran. So they have a ship, they've been, mediated from like, like, well, right.

So this is what that happened because the U.S., again, doesn't feel obligated to actually honor the terms of any. They started opening, they opened the channel, uh, around the Omani coast and just for like, anybody wants to come in and out, just just go for it.

And there's a lot, I mean, there are a lot of ships that are in the Persian Gulf who, that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf and like cruise and have to get out. Like thousands of them. Yeah. Um, and they just started being, you know,

they just started saying like, okay, well, just come on out through this channel and don't, like, you know, without kind of clearing it with the Iranians. And now that's been the objection, is that, you know, Article 5 of the MOU says any traffic through the straight will be coordinated with Iran. And they're not doing that. So, yeah, it's, it's sort of, you know, the issue of the tolls was being worked out. Like that was for down the road. The Iranians were talking to Oman. They wanted to talk to the other countries in the region about setting something up. And the Omanis, I think, the reporting I've seen, like, they've been, like, really trying to ratchet the Iranians' expectations down from, like, we're going to be making billions of dollars a year charging tolls to shifts to go through the straight to, like, let's do something that, you know, along the lines of what Turkey does in the Bosporus and the Dardanelles or what, you know, Southeast Asian countries do in the, and the, you know, the Strait of Malacca, which is you have like service providers. Like you provide things to the ships that go through and ships that avail themselves of your services pay, you know, a certain amount of money for using those services. But it goes back into maintaining like rescue operations or, you know, other things that are necessary to kind of keep things, keep traffic going through the straight. Or environmental, you know, you could make, you know, environmental remediation or anything like

that, you know, could be part of it. But yeah, I mean, I don't even think. the Iranians were envisioning taking 20% of everything that goes out of the straight. Like that's just absurd. Nobody would do that. They would just stop shipping through the straight of Ormonders. Like, what are you, what are you doing, man? Like that is ridiculous.

I got, you know, God forbid any country doesn't pay the Vig. The interest gets compounded every week. 20% of every 40%. 20%. Come on, man. That's worse than a fucking agent, Jesus Christ. But Derek,

in my view, we're just going to go back to these mostly pointless exchanges of missile, fire, or like, I know America just blew up some steel refinery in Iran that they say is dual use. I expect to see more like that. But the point is,

we have not really degraded Iran's military ability to respond to any of these attacks at all. And we still have this ceiling, which is global oil prices. Like what's a fucking barrel of crude cost? And like throughout the last six months, they have mostly managed to like, you know, I don't know, short the market and game it by like, you know, doing the Monday through Friday and then changing on the weekends and then making sure by the

time the Monday at the market's open, they're like, oh yeah, yeah, we're talking. We're going to have a ceasefire soon. But like, if this goes on much longer, like, how much longer can like the illusion of cheap oil continue to last, especially if they do meaning, if the United States does meaningfully escalate this war by, for instance, attacking Iranian oil infrastructure or trying to take Karg Island, or like, that would cause the Iranians to retaliate in a way that would really, really fuck up the entire, like, global oil infrastructure. Yeah, I don't know how much longer they have. I mean, one of the, the things that people have been trying to figure out is why oil prices didn't go up higher than they did in the meat of the war. And I think they're low now. Like Brent crude is

it about $82 a barrel today after, you know, it being made manifestly clear that the straight is closed for all intents of purposes. So I think it's still like underpricing what's going on here. And I'm not an oil market expert by any stretch of the imagination. But there has been a few things that have happened. I know that have affected prices. Like China has drastically cut it's oil imports. They're able to do this because they've gone so, you know, full into renewable energy over the last several years. Like they're really, you know, like lapping everybody else in the field.

And they've been able to dress the good, they're relying to some degree on reserves, to some degree just, you know, reducing demand in general. And that has had a big impact. But I think the other thing is, yeah, Like, they've just been, the Trump people have just been really effective at like manipulating the market here with their, you know, like up one day down the next or, you know, we're at war today, we're at peace tomorrow. But at some point, like the physical reality of, you know, countries running out of storage space and having to start shutting down wells and just like the physical lack of oil in the market is going to catch up to the futures market, I think.

And you will start to see things. I can't tell you when that's going to be. But, yeah, there's a bifurcation, I think, between the physical reality of how much oil is actually out there right now or getting to market and the kind of futures market, which is the expectation of where things are going to be, you know, a month from now or something. And those things aren't aligning. But at some point, like the rubber has to hit the road. like we're just not going to have as much oil as, you know, as countries need to, uh, to, to, you know, maintain their fuel consumption. And that's going to be, I think, a painful point.

But again, I don't actually know when that's going to be. Just if we are going to go off pure anecdotal economic data and, you know, people love using the stripper report as a recession indicator. My logistic report that I can give per the impacts of, global logistics, energy scarcity, etc, etc. I have never seen so many fucking broken elevators in my life.

The only thing that is immediately comparable is right after COVID, later 2021, 2022, when supply chains were fucked up and a lot of elevator parts had to come from places like Japan in Germany and they would be backed up for three months. But it was nowhere near as bad as it is now.

I live in a, let's say I live around where Pete Campbell's family live. That's my general area of location. You would figure, Jeffrey Epsteinville, elevators are working here all the time. All my neighbors where I live are three times my age. We need elevators. And at least half of every elevator and every building I use is fucking broken. If that is not an indicator of some, you know, the physical reality of scarcity and a logistical nightmare, I do not know what it is because it certainly was not like this before.

We learned that the red flag of revenge actually does mean that they are going to jump out. Look forward to future weeks of the elevator report. And look, if the elevator crisis continues, we may have to replace the entirety of the United States Congress. Yeah, that would be clear. John Federman's life is dependent on elevator access. I've been in that building. Like, they take elevators everywhere.

They have, I mean, they have set aside elevators for the, members. So if those things go, those guys aren't going to be able to get around. And the tram, like the tram that goes under the capital that carries everybody's office buildings. Oh yeah, I wrote that thing. I wrote that thing. I, it's

actually, it was really cool. When I was 14, I don't know why. I got this, I wasn't a really particularly great student, but I got a scholarship to meet with Lindsay Graham. I don't remember a lot of the trip. but I remember waking up on the tram

and thinking it was pretty cool. Do you remember the ladybugs? I do. I do. But no, I mean, that's probably how Lindsay Graham died. They were like, they were like, sorry, sir, the elevators out. And he was like, I haven't walked upstairs in 48 years, but no time like the present to try again.

First step. He might as well gotten hit by that ballistic missile. Yeah. And if there are any... He got carbonized. If there are any commanders from the Iran's

mosaic military right now, I just want to let you know that all Tyson corrupt facilities are considered dual use. You may fire on Reddit. Yes. There you go.

Yeah. Yeah. If you really want to bring the great Satan to its knees, make us take the stairs. Dude, I am not enjoying enjoying the elevator shortage. I am, it is doing harm to me.

The other day, one of the 100 degrees days, I had a redline day. I worked out really hard. And I got on the one working elevator in my gym. And a group of women that were clearly friends with each other, they were talking and laughing as they got into the elevator with me. They all inhaled once and immediately a palpable silence fell over. for the elevator.

It was the longest 30 seconds of my life. It was one of the worst things I've ever felt. But I will endure that like if, dude, I will, I, did you think that is my first time causing discomfort in an elevator? It's not my first, it won't be my last. I'll endure all of it for Iran's victory. IRGC, take out Tyson Krop, the collaborators, take out Otis, take them all out.

Well, to switch gears, just to close out the show, I've got a few, a few stories of a domestic note that I thought we could do really quickly. The first one, Felix, are you aware that Boosie tried to pay Jack Berkman and Jacob Wall 300 grand to get him pardoned by Donald Trump? Oh, my God. Like, what? Bozy. He's he old. Bozy is now. We will be, we will consult with you for a.

free. Yeah. We love you. So like we could have told you John Connington and young Griff. You gave them three of one man. He's trying to get his money back. He's facing these federal gun charges and he's starting to get his money back from them. And Boisey quoted in this news article says they were real aggressive.

They were talking like they had Trump on speed dial. Bozzie told notice of Berkman's initial pitch. Oh my God. This makes me feel so sad. we could have told him who to bribe. Yeah. Tom Barack. Bozzy, come on, man.

Like, Boosie, you know a lot. I don't agree with you on everything. I don't agree with any of the things that you have said in Planet Fitness. Well, Felix, I'd be like, if I had seen a video of him handing a briefcase of cash over to fucking Burke on his wall, I would just be like, don't do it, man. Don't do it. Don't hand the briefcase over me. So, seriously, a boozy. Yeah, you should have consulted more.

You got to bribe the right people if you want to, if you want to get pardoned by Donald Trump. And Jacob Wall and Jack Bergman, they do not have the juice. They do not have, they do not. Yeah, that's a very 2017 mindset. Yeah. Dude, they couldn't have gotten it done then.

I actually think it's the, if they are capable of getting in contact with anyone in that audience, you get the opposite of the of a pardon they just send you to gitmo they're like you're the reason that berkman and wool are calling us you're fucking you're getting renditioned asshole i i want to requisition boosies 300k i want to like there are so many i could probably just go on a walk and find someone in my neighborhood who could get a secure a bribe for boozy like there's probably a Stan Chara air So within a mile of me, right?

Yeah, it's clearly. Yeah, like, fuck, man. He's currently trapped in a stairwell after collapsing. Oh, no. The house chera is almost extinct because of the elevator crisis. I don't like, okay, I, to extend the Game of Thrones metaphors, me and you will, we have to be like, Barrison, bearers and sell me. Yes.

Garian Lannister for Boozies DeNaris Targaryen. We want to fight for a cause we believe in for once. We used to work for the Mad King Bernie Sanders. But now we want to work for the breaker of chains. The breaker of the the lunk alarm. The breaker of the transpopial arm at Planet Fitness. Just one more quick thing. Couch Patel's FBI.

I mean, it looks like he's been in some trouble. But I did like, after Lindsey Graham died, he posted that like the FBI is available. He said, our prayers are with his family, loved ones, colleagues, and all those who knew him during this devastating time. The FBI is assisting local authorities and has made every resource available.

Like for what? Like maybe someone did kill him. Like maybe someone did kill him. But this is coming on heels of Cash. It says here, FBI, this is from MS now. FBI director Cash Patel abruptly canceled the plan fight Friday. to see his girlfriend in Chicago this weekend,

after two top administration officials frustrated with Patel summoned him to the White House, according to two people with knowledge of the change. The precise reasons that Patel's political bosses demanded he canceled his trip and report to the West Wing are unclear, but several people say top Trump deputies are disturbed by a range of actions by Patel. Some found it confounding that the FBI director

was leaving town amid the recent revival of the war with Iran and alleged threats against the president's life, according to a person familiar with efforts to help Patel rebuild trust within the White House. But this article, people spoke on the... What is Cash Patel going to do? Yeah. Yeah.

You know, if an IRGC hit squad shows, like a Kud's Force hit squad shows, like, what is Cash Patel really going to do? Get his girlfriend to sing them a patriotic song that has them like... Yeah. Like Michael Jackson, when he, like, sort of like, lowers the M-16 on the soldier. Also, just like doing it, like, oh, what, you're doing this while there's an attempt on Trump's life. It reminds me of, um, when...

Tony when he was trying to fuck Adriana earlier in the episode he gets that mole removed and he's like yeah I got a mole removed could have been cancer It says here You are really milking this Others cited two unforced errors by Patel

that created bad optics for the Trump administration The first being his early morning tweet bashing MS now for its coverage of his high flying lifestyle They said in which Patel boasted my jet ski is gold-plated, dumbass. The second misstep the people said was that the extensive reports by MS Now

and other news outlets about taxpayers funding the bill for Patel's globe trotting ultimately spurred formal questions from Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley a critical ally of President Donald Trump's. I mean, a gold-plated jet ski. Who, like, who the fuck?

What are you? Like, some cartel guy? Like, how would that even work? Is that even a thing? Function? Link. But the fact that Patel obviously, Patel definitely does have a jet ski. I mean, I like, let's on salt jet skis here.

Jiskees are wonderful. But I just feel like using the term bad optics in reference to cash show is a little unfair. It's kind of mean. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I mean, that is like, all these guys do the Trump thing, right? They all are doing an impression of Trump.

And that is why everyone comes off as so. abrasive and weird because you need Donald Trump's exact mix of pathologies and the generation he came. All the factors that go into him admittedly having these moments that are funny. And you know, despite being the most scandal-ridden president of our lifetimes, seemingly getting away with all of it, though, of course, his powers are great. diminished. But this strikes me as another case of that. You are not Trump.

If you're anyone else, you don't draw attention to the story of how you're fucking off on your job by being like, hey, check out this article about what a stupid asshole I am. Isn't it bad? Only Trump could, could do that move. And he can't even do it anymore. His approval ratings are like, they are. Just the average person that you meet.

It is a complete reversal circumstances from 2023, 2024. And Cash Patel can certainly not emulate that act. J.D. Vance, like he has ruined his life trying to do this. And J.D. is a more competent person than Cash. I don't like, I kind of have this theory that the reason that Cash and Pete are still in there is that basically they're banking on there is going to be like a mother of all fuck-ups down the line.

Like, let's say for Iran, it's like, I'll just throw this out there, even though it's unlikely. Let's say, like, they sink a fucking U.S. aircraft carrier with hypersonics, with cash. Let's say that... A popular TV anchor's mother is kidnapped and then killed with no suspects or arrestment. Well, yeah, I was that, obviously, I was trying to think of something worse.

I mean, that's obviously horrible. But I mean, like something more, something where you'd really want a good director of the FBI, I was thinking my hypothetical was a nationwide group of bank robbers that rob every major bank, Fort Knox, the Federal Reserve, and not only rob the vaults, they replace all the gold bullion and cash and bearer bonds with child pornoges. with child pornography. So like the worst. A gold finger situation.

I remember that part of Jim's one. Yeah. Like a like a trick and they kidnap people. So like an FBI act trick. Yeah. You need to get these guys. I think they're waiting for both of those things to happen to finally fire them. Because if these fuckups happen anyway and you've already fired Cash and Pete, then, you know,

everyone is going to go, well, clearly, you know, this is an administration-wide problem. This Donald Trump guy might be kind of a fuck-up and not know what he's doing. But if they happen, and then you fire Cash and Pete, you go, okay, problem solved. I was thinking like an equivalent for Pete Hegg said to be if we fired an ICBM at Iran, but it did like the SpaceX thing where it just sort of turned around and landed perfectly in an Iranian missile silo without going off and they just have an ICBM. This is the one thing we didn't

watch to happen. That'd be a hard one to explain to the boss. Yeah, you're watching and it's just like one of those like just perfect 62 year old dead parallel parking jobs. Yeah.

Or like, yeah, like you drop a nuke on them and it actually turns them into a race of super beings. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Unfortunately, now, Professor X and Magneto are real, but they're in the IRGC. I know. I mean, I've said before. I hope heggsett and cash, I thought they stick it out for the long haul, man, because nobody's doing it like they are. And I can't wait to see how Heggseth, I can't wait to see Hegsa's 10 year on under a restarted Iran war that goes exactly as well as the first go-around.

What, you don't think he's going to learn from his mistakes? He's like Russia. Russia has all these bad starts to the war and they turn it around just like they're doing now. I totally agree. I want them both exactly where they are. I want America. to keep buying Palmer Lucky's shitty fucking little misconduct.

Yes. I want all of it. Let it ride. I mean, it's gotten you here and like it's gotten you this far. Why change horses mid-stream? Don't forget the horse that got you to the dance. Exactly.

Yeah. The fact that anyone in the U.S. government is buying weapons from some shithead who fucking dresses like that guy is like what? What is one of the people's throwing paper airplanes? How about that? Yeah. I just, you know, we used to have the guys who worked on our weapons during the Cold War,

they would be fucking around on like a side project and they would accidentally invent the solid state TV camera. I think Palmer Lucky is actively removing inventions from human consciousness. It's a bad time out there. It's like it's, it's, it's 2028 and the U.S. military is like, we've run out of wheels and we don't run build them anymore we have we have triangles

we have squares we have a rhombus but we just can figure out how to get vehicles sort of you know roll fuck yeah

but we have but everything everything is AI we're putting an emergency we're putting an emergency you rush order into Raytheon for more compound

bows and arrows get back out there and Mr. President sir Iran has developed a crossbow. My God. We're bringing Dana White,

we're bringing Dana White in. He's kind of our Oppenheimer. He's famous for the octagon. And we think if we can smooth out the rough edges of the octagon, we can recreate the wheel shape. Because if you squint, it's kind of almost there.

All right. Well, we'll leave it there for today. I want to thank our guest, Derek Davison, and everyone please check him out on foreign exchanges and American prestige. Links will be in the show description. Yeah, I'm starting a new, well, plan to start a new monthly live stream at Substag. That's going to be about Islamic history with one of my old grad school friends. So, uh, excellent.

Check that out. I'll be posting an announcement about it on foreign exchanges. So people will not hop over there and check it out. That would, yeah, I think it'll be fun. to that. And one more plug at the end of the show. Of course. Pickup Chunks premieres this Sunday

July 19th and then available VOD afterwards and get your tickets to our live show in New York City on November 6th. Those are going fast. All right. All right. Thanks guys. Thanks Derek. Thank you, Derek.