Chapo Trap House - 862 - The Donkey Show feat. Dave Weigel & Ettingermentum (8/26/24)

Episode Date: August 27, 2024

The Chapo 2024 Elections team returns to the pod to look at the state of the presidential race post-Democratic National Convention. Kamala’s positioning in the election remains strong, but what does her convention performance tell us about a potential Harris administration? Is the Trump GOP really bungling this? Exactly how shitty is JD Vance as a VP pick, and is Tim Walz committing Dog Fraud? And just how much can the Democrats cover their ears and pretend Gaza doesn’t exist after the convention? All this and more discussed in today’s ‘sode. Find Dave’s reporting at Semafor here: https://www.semafor.com/author/david-weigel Find the Ettingermentum newsletter here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/

All I wanna be is a choco All I wanna be is a choco Greetings everybody. It's Monday, August 26th and we've got some Chopo coming at you. We are back from our Sojourn in Chicago. I want to thank everyone who came out and saw us at the Park West Theater. It was a great time. Cheers want to thank everyone who came out and saw us at the Park West Theater. It was a great time. Cheers to all of you who enjoyed that or listened to it. And got to experience with me the lovely surprise appearance from one Matt Christman via video. But that was, I would just like to say, a very special moment for me and I hope for you in the audience as well. That was a very, very fun and heartwarming moment for me. But it's Monday now, back in New York, nose to the grindstone. Let's pick up where we left off on the

DNC and this upcoming presidential election. Today, Felix and I are joined by our political reporting and political analysis brain trust. We've got Dave Weigel of Semaphore and Josh Ettinger-Mentum back once again to help break down where the election stands in all of its constituent parts. Josh, I'll begin with you. Now that we've had a chance to take in the full the full scope of the DNC, I you put it in a certain way that I that I appreciated that basically it was a successful but concerning convention in so much as they seem to do the things they needed to do from a sort of convention

standpoint. But you say like, you're more optimistic about Kamala taking power, but more pessimistic about what she may do with it than ever before. So Josh, beginning with you, like, what did you think that like, what do the Democrats have to do at this convention? Did they do it? And what was what was lacking in your in your from your perspective? Yeah, it was a pretty basic task for this. I think Kamala Kamala is like tasking selection is very, very simple. Democrats generally like just speaking very, very broadly, like

this is my thesis about like politics since like January six and Dobbs Democrats like the average Democrat, wins in the states you need to win against the Trump-aligned Republicans or Trump himself. They've done that consistently. Joe Biden was uniquely bad because he was a billion years old and dying, and Kamala was hurt by that association. So the presidential race was sort of in a different universe compared to the the Senate races and special elections and like primary elections. Like the stuff voters were actually voted in, like the Washington primary, which I hope to get to in a bit because that's a pretty like important overlook sign.

People were just very concerned about this White House for reasons that like it's kind of hard to blame them for. They just generally did not consider it competent across the board. And that was Kamala's problem and along with Biden's problem. But the difference in the reason what I said in my article, like back in March when I said I thought she'd be a better shot, Biden's problem was that he was too old and you can't fix old, you only get older. Kamala's problem was that she was seen as kind of unserious and like stupid basically.

And you can fix that perception. And that's largely what she's done in the past months since she's become the candidate. How much of that is due to her actually presenting a new face of people are looking at or how much of it is people just seeing what they want to see in her, I can't really say for sure. But the convention, the superficial kind of aesthetic task of it was to make her look like a strong, decisive, relatively independent

leader separate from, I don't know if they realized that they needed to be separate from Biden, but that was, I think they should have tried to accomplish. And I think like in just terms of like the quality of her speech, the quality of like Walls' speech, the general kind of production value and just like getting basic points across. I don't think it like failed pretty like significantly in any respects, but like it could have been a lot better because I don't think that like people running it, it's the same people. Like the chickens are sort of coming home, the roost where she's keeping in the same people from Biden's campaign who have a

very curious understanding of political reality to say the very least. David. So this was Kamala's coronation, you know, like she's he's in control of the party now or at least it appears that way. Are you seeing anything from your reporting or the polls that would suggest that this is a bounce she's going to take into the general election or like it is the it seems like all the momentum is with Kamala now. Did the convention help or hurt that? Convention probably helped so we're not gonna get polling that that captured all Is the it seems like all the momentum is with Kamala now. Did the convention help or hurt that convention? Probably help. So we're not going to get polling that that captured

all the convention until middle of the week. That's usually when you get Quinnipiac and a few other things. I saw the Kennedy endorsement. Sorry, the candy dropout from Dorsen have at the same time, I think might affect things. Everyone. A lot of people laugh at this, but I do think that Harris is going to get dinged a little bit by people coming out back from the RFK coalition. Not many, but that's going to have an impact.

But what he was hearing there about the Democrat enthusiasm, it was surreal at the convention. I mean, there are these bus lines that got delegates back into the convention, which was a mess. The final day, people were showing up with tickets, two hours for the Harris speech and they couldn't get in. And I was watching all these democratic volunteers, DNC volunteers getting purple pom poms and going to the buses, kind of cheering

people as they got in and these huge, this big mural that was created by Emily's list with Harris on it. And I had the same thought as these people were organizing for Biden 10 minutes ago. And when they were going to serve Biden, you were an ableist if you suggested maybe the 78. No, no, that's Trump. The 81 year old president was not the best candidate. Like they turned immediately. And one thing I don't think this isn't showing up in polls because I don't think people care. Republicans really want people to blame Democrats or get angry that they did this. No one cares. Everyone is so happy to not have to deal with Biden anymore. That's, I think maybe Harris got the end of her boost on that note that she's not Biden. Maybe

that's running out. But yeah, it being like a 12, 13 point boost, I'm kind of not surprised. I think I might have discussed this last episode, but just the normal voter out there was the one who said, how could you do this to us? How can you make us choose these people again? And they're still riding that eye. It's been like a remarkable swing. One of the most insane swings. Yeah. Just as far as like pure numbers at this point in an election that we've seen in like the modern era, how much of that do you attribute just to the Democratic base's exhaustion with Biden? Because my very non-scientific way of looking at this, engaging the temperature of the Democratic voter, was to go to DJ Academic's, and I don't support him in any of his legal struggles

that he's currently engaged in, any of his lawsuits. But to go to academics' page when he posted like a Trump or politics thing, and it seemed like when Biden was the candidate or even before the election, if he posted a Trump thing, the comments were out of the people that gave a shit to comment about a politics thing on academics' Instagram page, overwhelmingly in support of of Trump and I didn't get the sense that like he had an especially conservative audience or that there was this you know that like oh this is the year that 30% of black voters vote for a Republican like they've been saying for the last 12 years it was more more a sense, sort of again, talk about reverse 2016, that there was a social stigma in being like, I am with the

sham ball, like old Woodrow Wilson candidate. I am with Biden. It seemed like after he dropped out, the shame went away. Like people were more okay with being identified as Democrats in public. Yeah, it totally did. Instantly, I kept thinking of it as if just Democrats had to lie to themselves for five years. And even if they voted for Biden,

a very popular lie was, oh, well he said he's only gonna seek one term. Cause he never actually said that he hit. We went to the edge so you could think it. But if you talk to his normal Democrats for four or five years, they just would. It was like the kids in It's a Good Life, the Twilight Zone episode who know the kid can wish them into the cornfield and bring them a monster. It's good that you did that.

It's really good that you shuffled off stage and went to the wrong door and then to the right door and then back to the wrong door for some reason. It's really good. We really like that you're doing it. Please keep doing it. They just were lying. And this is the thing. Sometimes you don't pay a penalty for lying.

The fact that they were just full of it with themselves, they just are like people who stopped drinking and they're like, I have clarity now. Please don't judge me by the years I spent drinking and falling backwards into wedding cakes. Now I feel great. I feel honest and I feel the gospel of Kamala and they really do. That is the difference.

Somebody had a good take about this. It just, I think it was Rick Perlstein who was saying, you can just tell when Al Gore wanted to talk about climate but they made him not talk about that because they thought it pulled bad. But you can just tell when this is why Trump gets through everything is you can tell when he just is saying something and everyone in his team said, don't say it, but it's honest. They're finally honest. And it's with a candidate who had to flip-flop on 20 things or more, but they're finally

all saying, yes, we want her to be president. We feel awesome about female president Kamala Harris. They really do. If you polygraph them, but they're finally I'll say, yes, we want her to be president. We feel awesome about female president, Kamala Harris, they really do. If you polygraph them now, they're not lying. It is very, it is very interesting that, you know, no one remembers at this point, but Kamala had like a fucking brick of a primary campaign. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, not even that shit 35% approval like in October last

year, she was hated. That was peak Kamala for me when people just hated her so much for being like kind of weird. That was when it was really fun to root for her. It's not as fun now because people like actually like her. But when like you search like Democratic presidential candidates and every article was about like Whitmer or Newsom or something, like you just, and she had like 34% approval. It wasn't 20% in future primary polls. She hadn't really done anything wrong.

It was just so funny to me. I do wonder how much of that was like... Dave, you mentioned that she's flip-flopped on 20 things. Yeah. I wonder how much of that was... this was like a recurring problem. We saw with candidates in 2020 was that they would sort of in a in a panicked rush be like I Like Medicare for all I like the fucking green new deal. I like I'm Bala Shice. I'm friends with the

Sean McElve They would do all that stuff and it except for like you know one or maybe two candidates it rang very hollow you just you can't yeah in politics for you know your entire adult fucking life and then just suddenly be like oh I I've actually supported you know Medicare for all this tire time but now it's safe to say it like if you read Ari Robin Hoff's book he was the deputy chief of staff like they knew that. They were going to create a bunch of litmus tests and they were going to trap any candidate who didn't really believe them and Kamala just went full Wile E. Coyote in favor of

all the things that they set up. Bernie sincerely met them. They just realized this would be a way to test if you were full of it and she was full of it. But the person who I actually do believe was sincere, the only person besides Bernie was Beto. Everybody forgets, but Beto voted against the Iron Dome in 2014. He was uncommitted this year.

He was the guy. I'm like, that's just what I believe now. He needed to be elected senator and then elected president, and he'd be leading by 20 points in the polls right now against like the saddest Beto may have been the only guy who would have gone with my selected policy, the Turkish invasion. Well, Dave, I mean, when I saw you in Chicago, I mean, you alluded to it briefly. But one of the things that was so astonishing to me about this convention and in the dramatic shift in enthusiasm in the Democratic Party is that you mentioned like not even a month ago, like half of the not normal Democratic voters, but their media partisans were saying that any suggestion that you switched out Biden at the

top of this ticket was not just ageist, but also suicidal. And that like it was a fundamental abrogation of democracy How come none of these people have become never a Kamala heads? Where is the party unity my ass contingent now that that Biden's been shuffled off this mortal coil so to speak and like it Just like I mean that quickly they just said was just insane Like how could like there are people speaking at the convention who like weeks ago, were cutting videos about how we will never stand for anyone other than Joe Biden. They just they they just swapped out body Biden in the in the little yachty meme. They had the little yachty meme of Biden going out there and swapped in the column.

Yeah, that's what I mean. It's it's everyone. I can only compare it to like people after intervention or after some some crisis where they admit, okay, now we all went through it. We're never going to talk about it again. It is weird that no one thinks, even when I was trying to pull some of them into talking about it, they just don't want to talk about it. Nancy Pelosi was in not hell all week, but Nancy Pelosi kept having to do the same interview again and again about whether Biden in her

had a good relationship still. And she, she was the avatar for all of them saying, why do you care? I mean, I've been, I don't want to be the Dennis Miller of this podcast, just keep thinking of cultural references, but it really did remind me of Chris Tucker and Friday of just like, why are you bringing up old shit? That was a week ago. No one wants to hear what happened a week ago. Why are you bringing this up? And they didn't pay a penalty at all. I think there is rumor of polling that says there are some older voters and older white men who used to be for Biden and don't like Harris now.

And I believe that that might be true on the margins, but, uh, no, most of them just, they, and they, they wanted to defend, they got all these goodies from doing this that they didn't expect. I mean, the day of the debate, I, when I was in Atlanta, I think I talked about this last of my show, it was only Republicans who wanted him to stay on the ticket. And I talked to Ipsos, the pollsters at Ipsos, and they had their data that said, oh, if the incumbent advantage is so strong, if you have a non-incumbent, they're going to be weaker. And we've run the regression and it doesn't matter what you do. If you have a new candidate who they're going to be weaker. And we've run the regression and it doesn't matter what you do.

If you have a new candidate who's popular, the incumbent scene manager is so huge. And I do think they, they had data showing this cause data on presidential trends is really bad. There's just not enough of them. Um, but they, they clung to that data cause they wanted to believe there was just some way Biden was going to bounce back, uh, and that they don't have to believe it anymore.

They just, they just need Kamala. and even the interviews, which they kind of set up this, um, this framework for defending Biden, never having to do an interview. Is, uh, he was not going to do the Super Bowl interview because he doesn't, he's not going to jump to attention to the fake, to the media, they don't call them fake news to the media demanding. Thanks from him while they cover for Trump. And they just ported that right over to Kamala. It's just, yeah, she doesn't need to talk to people like,

why would you talk to you guys who are doing fact checks that are unfair to us? They were ready to do this campaign. They just four years of them feeling bound to the Biden campaign. They detached the stone of failure and attached the stone of triumph, which in this case, in this analogy, is much smaller. It is it is interesting. Um, the sort of Republican response to it. And it's like, you almost like can't blame them because it's, it's like,

yeah, imagine, imagine that you are going, you're going to run against a guy who was opening invisible doors and was like getting up, getting on TV and saying insane things. Like you have to write down all the Biden things because there was a new one weekly. I almost forgot what he said. Oh, earth mover. Thank you. Great lakes. That weird shit he said when he saw, I don't know, a spirit elf or something. And everyone just ignored it.

But yeah, I do feel bad for them, but it's put them in this hilarious position where they're going, they almost sound like a Pumas from 2008 where they're like, Joe Biden was the democratically elected president and you've betrayed the base of the democratic party. democratically elected president and you've betrayed the base of the Democratic Party. And it's like, obviously, this flies in the face of like what is now the Republican platform that he stole the fucking election. It is either right, the rightful thief of the 2020 election was

deposed in an illegal coup. Okay. Well, this guy said something I want to talk about. Okay, RFK just just dropped out. Why don't Republicans just have a new convention and kick JD Vance out and make R.F.K. Jr. the running mate? No, but like, I know it sounds insane, but like seriously, like Josh and David, they absolutely want.

Is there any is is there any reason people should credit the idea that they might switch out JD Vance with R.F.K. Jr. because I've seen a lot of people think that's the new hotness. But is there any reason to believe that this is a possibility? I think you're past the point where it'd be legally possible like you get into ballot access deadline issues at this point. But that's like the sole reason.

What if what if what if an accident happens to JD Vance? Oh, then they'd be then they could do it. They're gonna put polonium in his eye shadow. It's such a weird wish guys because it's like, okay, you've got written JD Vance and you no longer have the off-putting guy that everyone hates. Now you have the off-putting guy that everyone hates who has committed several sexual assaults. Would they swap them out? I think that they from talking to the Trump orbit people, the way they see Kennedy, like two months ago, they didn't need to do this.

They didn't need to get to come over because they thought he was still kind of fly paper for a lot of anti-Biden Democrats. And then because those all went to Harris, then he just was hurting Trump and they see him as somebody they can slot into. They almost have a parallel universe of not just media, but surrogates. Right now, Democrats have surrogates who can go and hold rallies like Bernie, Warren, to a smaller extent, Obama. What they have are guys who are really good on podcasts. They have Trump who can go on the Nelk,

not on the Nelk brothers, the Theovon. Is cocaine a stronger up? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cocaine will make you. So you're way up with cocaine, more than anything else you can think of. Cocaine will turn you into a damn owl, homie, you know what I'm saying?

You'll be out on your own porch, you know? You'll be your own street lamp. You're freaking. And is that a good feeling? Well, it's a miserable feeling. But you do it anyway, just like the guy you're saying with the Scotch. They have JD who can go on the Nelk brothers. They have Robert F. Kennedy can handle Patrick,

Pat David. And they really do see that the swing voter they see is the alienated guy who hates politics and uses the term duopoly like in normal conversation and they think that that voter was on the fence and they've gotten him and that's worth a couple points and Whatever Democrats say about Kennedy. He's getting those guys. They don't know who Vance added exactly They'll refer to how Vance helped with conservatives. No, he didn't really. He didn't add anybody to Trump. Was he supposed to help with white men?

Yeah, they had a problem with that. No, no, no. There wasn't really an ad. Vance they picked because Trump was going to win the election and he could pick anybody. He picked the guy that Don Jr. liked the most. And Don Jr. also likes RFK Jr.

a lot. And this really is a Don Jr. Also likes RFK junior a lot. Uh, and this really is a Don Jr. Pilled campaign. If the last campaign was Jared Kushner and talking about, you know, when, when Joe Biden was putting black people in jail, Donald Trump passed the first step back, they don't do that anymore. They are all in on Patrick, bet David mindset on just how can you appeal to people who like, uh, who, who, who like to win, who like to read books about

winning, uh, who, who, who like, who like to get, who like to read books about winning, who like to get microphones and talk to people about winning. They really do think that there are these voters, like this was, they had 47% and then there's a share of voters who love being a winner, talking about like falconing. That's pretty cool. I actually think it is. And you can tell the way they brought in Kennedy does, he adds more to the ticket than Vance does. I think if Kennedy had been open to joining the ticket, uh, he was kind of,

he just kept flaking back and forth. But there was a reason Trump was calling Kennedy right after he got shot and trying to pull them on board is they re and they really did think like this guy got shot and trying to pull him on board. Is they really and they really did think like this guy is such a good surrogate for us in the in for the voters who will listen to three hour podcasts that we need to have him on our team and now they do. This is kind of a question for you and Josh. There is a definite departure in tone in this this Trump, because the first two Trump campaigns,

there was almost like a level of embarrassment from the official campaign, where it's like, hey, okay, I know this is like a little crazy, but we actually support gay people in so much as like, we don't want Al-Qaeda immigrants to kill them, and we're regular. But now, as Dave alluded to, it's a much more bold and Don Jr. based campaign. Do you account this sort of change in posture and content to like a perceived decrease in

social stigma in being a Trump supporter? Yeah, I think I don't want to like,, it sounds stupid to say, but I like just seeing somebody like Elon, like just posting what he posts, it's like this maternal right-wing obsession with culture is the thing that defines everything. It's like the one thing to think about. And one thing I keep on going back to is that one, like right wing writer lady who said like, Oh, uh, Christian like, um, the religious right has no power in the United States today.

And like people brought up the Supreme court, but it's like they don't like care about that. Their like kind of understanding of what like power is, is that like it's just like being respected on late night talk shows. They like are terrified of like I think what they perceive to be the flexing of power that liberals did during like 2020 during the George Floyd protests. They like think that's like the real main vein of how like power is structured in this country because maybe because it's something they like really can't get like a grip on. And so they've really spent the past number of years trying to like, I think sincerely and putting like seeing this as like a big risk that they have to take and be brave and investing a lot of money into it, creating their own parallel structure that they can imagine they can like have their own version

of those NBA commercials where they told people to vote, like how they would have Stacey Abrams on like morning talk shows a lot. They think that's like what they need to do to like succeed. And they think that having successfully created that a lot of instances like with Twitter and only using those places, it gives them double confidence they think well we've gotten rid of the most powerful left-wing institution and the media we have our own

alternative like kind of system here with like cat turd or dog shit or whatever other cats million followers they have on there and like that they being stuck in that it becomes an echo chamber where they think that like it's working and they're succeeding. I think that like those posts were like they're complaining about being throttled and how that just can't be right or like really kind of illustrative here. Like where Cat Turt is complaining about how they're like shadow banning him. Like they cannot conceive of not winning here. If they're not doing well, something has to be wrong. And like kind of admitting to the reality would be to conced well, something has to be wrong. And like

kind of admitting to the reality would be conceding to something that's really scary to them. Because if you put all this money into buying Twitter or truth social and it turns out that's not actually how things work, like what's next? What do you do? I mean they'd have to face up to the fact that on their most cherished issues that they have become a moral minority in this country, which is inconceivable to them. Just like Josh, I wanted to give you your flowers, as the kids say, because you've rated JD Vance as one of the worst vice-presidential,

like even before your most recent piece where you said he's the worst VP pick of all time. He was one of the among in the lowest tiers of your VP power rankings rankings And I just got to come back to that the donut clip The donut clip which has gotten a lot of burn. And there are like, probably 10 things in that video that are just inconceivable. Well, just saying saying to what donors do you want to say saying whatever makes sense was like one of the most like Voight contest fails I've ever seen. But just the fact that they didn't send because like the thing is, this is weird because like Trump is so good at that kind of like, you know, sort of a

customer interaction. Yeah, you know, where he goes in and buys sandwiches, he buys everyone pizza or whatever. But like the fact that they didn't scout someone ahead because like, normally you want to talk to the owner of the donut shop who is happy to talk to you and promote their business. The employees don't give a shit. Like when he's just like, Hi, I'm JD Vance. I'm running for vice president. And she just goes, OK.

No, he's doing sector. He's endorsed sectoral bargaining. So he's like their tribute. Yeah. Or the clip where he goes, he actually does talk to the business owner when he goes to the deli and Kenosha. He's like, hey, do you have any food that's like really shitty so we could give it to journalists? I want to

Who goes to a fucking restaurant is like what's your shittiest food? I have really sucks dick that's gonna be an intrusive thought for the rest of my life I'm gonna have to do that at least once I want to ask them like they're worth food like asking a waiter Hey, what's bad here? I'd like to have that please. Yeah What do you got that could get my wife diarrhea? My battle axe wife. And then just looking around, waiting for other businessmen to nod their heads

or high five people. Also just assuming that like a deli owner in Kenosha, the last Italian in Kenosha, sort of the last Roman encircled by Germanic barbarians. Like assuming that this man who, you know, he probably lit, he's married to Strega Nona, that nice mouse who cooks all the pasta. And assuming that that man is like, oh, I want to kill the media too. I hate Caitlin Collins, ah! Like no, no one's, no, most people aren't thinking about that. I think the problem with Vance is that he just,

he's not naturally like Trump at all. And he's watching a lot of people try to become Trump has been excruciating and watching him, he, not clearly, like he has a very well-examined biography. A lot of people have read his book and a lot of people went to school with him and they'll talk to reporters like, this is not the man I know,

except every time he changed in the direction of becoming more influential, more powerful. That's normal. A lot of people do that and they run for office, but it's when he, he's never been like this. Like he always in the halls of the Congress, there are Republicans who hate reporters and won't talk to them.

Like Mike Lee always takes a phone call because he hates reporters. And he really does in his bones think they're evil. And Vance did not think that way, but then he'll over. And you always screw up like when you're overcompensating, you're always in the 40 year old Virgin, you know, saying, oh, how do boobs feel like a bag of sand? That's right, fellas. Am I right? Am I right? Know how we like boobs?

At least Stefanik was like this too. Like she like endorsed the great replacement theory. She would do this stuff Trump wasn't even asking for like, like we're going to expunge his impeachment and he never even commented on it because he thought that was stupid. Yeah. Vance has more talent than that in some ways, but he never was a back-slapping politician.

He was a guy who got into politics through Peter Thiel and through the founder network, which is that's a path. I mean, Blake Masters tried it and failed. He, he succeeded in it, but he never was the guy who was the best at relating to people in, in the duck blind. He, he just, it wasn't him. Like Don Jr is actually better than him. So when he tries to be a tough guy,

cracking wise to reporters, he's much better when he's just being kind of chill and talking to reporters, because he wants to be a chill guy who gets along with people. It's weird seeing him in this position. That was the worst example of it though, the donut thing. I thought, oh, everyone jumps on that. But I watched that with my mouth hanging open for for two minutes. It was bad

You're not so you're supposed to have at least one person in there who's happy Yeah, and also when he said looks like the zoo has come to town those zoos don't travel It's like I'm here town has a silver doesn't You know what I think like the way people try to psychoanalyze him is that like like oh, he's like over educated He's overcompensating. He's like he's like insecure and wants to be seen as like this really intellectual person I'm just gonna take him at his word. That is a thing a fucking hick says he is a hillbilly Like you ain't ever been you think the zoo travels I believe you now you're fucking lead us. It is this posture. The posture like as Dave is so weird though, I specifically for Vance because like I was

paying attention to his sort of turn in 2021, back when he was on Twitter and saying things where he sounded like, um, sideshow Bob going capital knockers, ma'am. When he's trying to fit in with the construction workers where he would, he would, he would say things like, isn't Alex Jones terrific? Just none of, none of these things that an actual like jug hooter would say. Just none of none of these things that an actual like jug hooter would say and it's so weird to me because like yeah, he's Exceedingly comfortable talking to members of the media because until like

2019 or 2020 he was like Mr. Wef Davos was probably his favorite fucking place in the world to go It is like there are people who have gone from liberal to conservative, from like, you know, SDS to neocon, from trot to fucking whatever. Right. That's a common path. But specifically someone who has gone from like specifically a fan of the New World Order to being like, no, I actually hate them. That I haven't really seen. Josh, what do you make of the New World Order to being like, no, I actually hate them. That I haven't really seen. Josh, what do you make of the like the contrast between like the instincts that led Trump to pick

JD Vance and Kamala's team picking Tim Walls? Like, what do you make of the contrast between Walls and Vance? Because I guess like my takeaway is like, you know, there wasn't much politics at the DNC. because I guess my takeaway is there wasn't much politics at the DNC. But from a purely pragmatic standpoint or just strategically, not morally. And morally, I watched the DNC as I would imagine the Wansee Conference would look like if it had a DJ. Yeah. But that being said, I have been at least somewhat taken aback by the, at least what I regard as like the slightly better political

Instincts of the Kamala Harris campaign as opposed to what I was assuming would be like the standard Democratic playbook like the Yeah, I was like really that like I kind of it made so much sense to me in so many ways I was surprised to see them not do it But the biggest contrast and I think this is a bit underrated by people who kind of look at the policy details and everything, just the basic qualifications. Walls is just a very generically qualified resume. He was a member of Congress for five terms. He's a second term governor. That's just very basic. Vance has been in the Senate since only since 18 months now. I think somebody said this, like, and it really stuck with me. Trump's campaign, it like this year is older than JD Vance has been a Senator. Trump began his campaign in November, 2022.

Vance was sworn in in January, 2023. So like when he began this campaign, Vance was technically unemployed. He's only run in public office once, like in Ohio and like a Republican plus 12 state in a like an opposition midterm for his party with a and Josh, as you put it out, like his political campaign was dead until Trump endorsed. Oh, yeah. He was like gonna get like a fourth place in a third person race. Like there was no natural constituency for this. Yeah, he was. I'm sorry. He was

losing a junk hooter off to a Jewish man. Yeah, Josh Mandel. Yeah, Josh Mandel is the son of two orthodontists. He was born into the role of being the cantor at a conservative synagogue, and he was more convincingly a jug hooter than JD was. He was great. He was like a born right-wing, like, outrage poster. He walked so Valentina Gomez could run. Like, I was really sad to see him not get that nomination. But he was

losing to a fucking business man, like, Mark Dolan or something. Like, the guy who owns the Cleveland Guardians. Excuse me. It wasn't even like a DeSantis thing, or at least DeSantis was in second place before Trump had to endorse him twice. There was just no traction there. People were not fucking with him at all, and he just gets over the line with a plurality of the vote because Trump endorses him. I think Bernie Moreno actually did way better than him this year, which says a lot in the primary.

He was losing for most of that election. He was down to Tim Ryan in Ohio throughout like most of the summer and into the fall. The Republicans had to bail him out, like with tens of millions of dollars, just like flooding the airwaves. And only even then he still underperformed Trump by like two points. That was in like a year where every other Ohio Republican was winning by 20. So just electorally, this guy isn't just somebody who's unimpressive or inexperienced. He was one of the worst candidates you could bring up of that entire year, period. He was Blake Masters, Herschel Walker tier. And it's just when you get to

that point where you see somebody making such a questionable pick like Palin or like Eagleton or whatever, it's like the sort of default assumption is like, well, that was all they could do or they really desperately needed to fill this certain role. Trump could have picked anybody. It's really strange. Like he had Burgum, not only like, Youngkin was right there. Youngkin was term limited. Like he wanted it. Like was there like some issue with him being taller than him or something? Like I don't like that. I was term limited. Like he wanted it. Like, was there like some issue with like him being like taller than him or something? Like, I don't like that. I don't get part of this is how he really did get redpilled as Donald Trump since since 2020. And he listened, I keep mentioning

Don Jr. Because he was a factor in all this. So Don Jr. I'm kind of borrowing I think it was john swan at the times who had this but when when they were in their final decision making process, Don Jr. said, one, that like Vance, Vance gets you more, but two, that, sorry, this is Tucker added to the conversation. That if he picked somebody else, like he picked Marco Rubio, he might get

assassinated by the deep state. Cause the deep state wanted Trump out of the way to replace him with someone like Rubio. And then what happens right before the convention is the deep state in the form of this, this loser guy in Pennsylvania took a shot. The way they talk about it is still they capital T H they try to take them out. I don't think, I think Trump had already made his mind up mostly for that point, but he was getting this feedback that said, uh, you are winning the election

and Maga can rule for 20 more years, but it won't. If you pick Marco Rubio, you pick Doug Burgum. They might betray MAGA because he went from unconfident Trump 2016 who needed Pence, because he needed to be credible with social conservatives. He didn't need that anymore. They liked him already. It was who will keep your legacy? Who is with you on everything?

Who is just as mean as you are as an attacker? Which Vance can do that in just a different style. It's when he tries to relate when he's with Reader. And that's how it went. Whereas on the Democratic side, it was, we are in a hole, but we can come out and people are going to like him. Once they meet this guy, they're gonna like this guy

with this story that this story that has gone over how many times. I mean, he won swing seats for 10 years in Minnesota, and then he won governor twice. He wasn't winning deep red areas like Amy Klobuchar. But you can see the results. Like he remained pretty popular. Well, I think still the most popular guy on either ticket

since he got in the race, since Republicans bashed him, because they were like, no, we need it's we don't assume that the whole the most popular guy on either ticket since he got in the race since Republicans bashed him because they were like No, we need it's we don't assume that the whole the whole country is on our side We assume we might need somebody who can appeal to a voter that doesn't like Kamala Harris. That was that Republicans didn't think that They're like no the country wants Trump. How can the country be promised even more Trump when you're gone? it's it's so strange to me because um, don't know, for most other political parties, like a midterm like 2022 would have been a massive wake up call that like you need to do something different and specifically in 2022, like the weirdo stuff, like the fucking not to use the, you know, now democratic meme, but like this stuff where you're like, you know, people are

asking questions about like the pipes at their kids school. And you're like, I'm going to make sure that there are no tampons there. Like where you freak everyone out that it would have caused some reexamination, but no, they doubled down on it. Yeah. It's like, it's the weirdest part of that to me is that like there was like a two month period where like there was a reaction where DeSantis was like competitive in the primary polling. They just kind of forgot about it.

And probably because like DeSantis, I don't I think he never really successfully litigated why exactly they did so poorly and why he might have done well in particular. It was he tried to spin it into like the Ted Cruz style, like, oh, Trump wasn't right wing enough and I was. And that just wasn't like a coherent narrative in a way that like, even like saying like, oh, we need to return to rhinoism. That it would've gotten a lot of flack,

but at least might've like made people somewhat interested. Like I think people, he kind of had just like a very kind of like we can have our cake and eat it too pitch that like just left people uninterested. Haley just like went back to like, like he, she like towed the line for a little bit and like kind of pressed on that. And she did see growth, but then she just really immediately pivoted to like a Bill Kristol style, like never Trump thing when she actually got attention, which was really strange to me.

So like, in that sense, this has never really been litigated by the party at the national level because they still tried running the Trump's right during the primary. There was never like kind of a reckoning with it. And I think the Trump people felt kind of maybe I mean, I can't say, I'm just guessing that like they felt defensive in a way and they have to prove like, I don't know, 2022 is a fluke for whatever reason. I'm like this kind of Trump without Trump is, thousand year right, sort of idea can work. So they're just forcing the issue a little bit.

Yeah. In 2020, they had, he's been president and things are bad now, but they're going to come back and now they have a mix of that. Plus he is going to destroy the whole system. Like they've returned to the, you can, yes, he was president, but he's not the establishment. And no one has tried that before. Because it's kind of unwieldy. It does feel more real and true to Trump's personality than when he was talking about the First Step Act, which he clearly didn't care about. But that is what they're trying. And

they're doing it with Vance and with, I mean, Tulsi Gabbard who had already been pro-Trump, re-upping her endorsement this week, helping him in the debates. They really have glommed onto sort of these populist characters who, maybe they were interested in Bernie at 16, but their main interest was in saying, American politics sucks. We need more options. It didn't feel like he needed those guys a month ago and now he does. So that, that is a change in how the whole operation is working.

They were running a much more confident campaign when they chose Vance. They're also like poll deniers now. They were like, there was an email that they put out where they said it, like they skewed the polls. And we're not picking up all the the Trump the Trump voters who never do respond to pollsters, but we are picking up the the super excited Kamala coconut moms, which that's not crazy. I'm definitely sure there are Democrats who turned off TV and didn't answer polls a week a month ago and they are

now but pollsters know that's happening. Well, before we all get too high on Vice President Tim Walls, I mean, he does have a number of glaring issues that have come up over the past couple of days, chief among them being his son who cried like a bitch at the convention. But, Dave, you've been doing some gum shoe, you've been some shoe leather reporting. Is Tim Walz lying about a dog he owns or doesn't own? What's going on? What's going on?

Let's get to the bottom of this. What dogs does Tim Walz actually own? And is he lying to the American public about having more dogs than he should? I love this because the kind of thing I did and I said, I'm going to do more actual work this week, but this is probably going to get more traffic. Uh, yeah. So Minnesota Republicans shared these two photos of Walls with a dog. He got a dog called Scout because he promised it.

I think Gus, uh, he'd buy a dog in 2018. He's the, the kid's the weak kid who is crying and deserves to be in the left and right. He's a disgrace. Yeah. He could bury him under the jail. He's not looks maxing. He's not mewing. He's eating corn oil. He's not mewing. Everything you can do wrong, he's doing it wrong. He's a nightmare for most parents who have a son. he can do wrong. He's doing it wrong. He's a nightmare for most parents who have a son. If that was my son, I would sell him to a pedophile or the shake from Taken. Just to prove how normal I am. So, Wal's bought this dog, Scout, and Minnesota's not a small state but it's small enough where the governor has a dog and talks about it all the time.

People are like, oh, it's the dog. It's the brown black Labrador, chocolate lab, I guess. And so then at one point in October, 2022, he's heading toward reelection, he's probably gonna win. And he just stops at a dog park and meets another dog that is not a black Labrador, that is a different kind of dog.

And then, and just has a tweet up saying that he had a good time at the dog park. And so did Scout, so did his other dog. I recognize, I didn't recognize it at first, but as a dad joke, but then I just went to his old Instagram and found the video of him meeting this other dog and thought, oh, this is, I get that.

Like I've seen that kind of joke where you're out with your dog and you meet another one at the dog park and you joke that my dog also enjoyed it. But here's a picture of me with this this this nice guy I met his cool dog. But Minnesota Republicans jump on this as if I'll quote quote the first guy. Yes, this is Tim Walls tweeting about his dog scout. Only problem. These are two completely different dogs. I didn't jump on this until one US Senator, Eric Schmidt of Missouri, and also Kimberley Guilfoyle, who by dint of being close to Don Jr. is next to the campaign, clearly this is getting passed around on the phone with the Trump family members. Like, you see this? You see how this guy

faked his dog? He didn't. It was very clear that he just, he just had a, I think he did troll them by deleting it or the Trent, the Wells campaign deleted his tweet, but not the original video. And so I saw hours of this where just guys on Twitter were saying, Tim Walls is such a liar that he faked his dog. And we know the truth. Uh, that is, that is the story there. This is, I think if, if, if I need to just sell it as relevant,

it's that this is, I don't know, the 20th thing that Walls has done that is it's sort of hard to explain to people as a scandal, but they insist is. This keeps happening. This keeps happening to Walls where something not that bad happened, or in this case, literally nothing.

And this is the one that's gonna get them. You're gonna have to drop them the ticket now. The biggest scandal since Jane Sanders stole college. Yeah. Yeah. How quickly we forget. How quickly we forget. Yeah.

I think the way to explain this is that they're kind of convinced at this point that Walz is such a serial liar that he's a danger to the public, and they need to expose him to show how low he could possibly go. They don't see this as a political hit. It's like a public service at this point. Yeah, there was a convention where these guys on Twitter who just say breaking before their own thoughts. Rumors going around, they might have to drop, dump Tim Walz. And as a reporter who is followed, lots of reporters, like thousands of us are following that.

We're just that's not happening. These these good shape. I think it's just like what are you guys talking about? It's it's it's it feels stung by the the weirdo thing about JD Vance that like oh, he's weird. He's creepy. Women don't like him. And they're like, oh, like, I'll see it's like doubling down. They're like, I'll see you that and raise. Everybody knows Tim Walls is an aggressive predator sexual predator of

children. It's just like, okay, okay. Oh, that one. Yeah, the drinking come drinking horse come is like he's a he does bestiality. They're like they're like, yeah, women are kind of weirded out by JD Vance and his comments about post menopausal females. They're like, Oh, yeah, well, Tim Walls, fuck the horse and every child he ever taught at school. Howdy, what do you think about that? Yeah, well you know the fact that you think

that it may be true is what really gets you. It's like when a group of friends are like razzing each other and then someone brought along by maybe a less popular friend tries to join in. It's like, oh you're putting on a little weight. Oh, you're, oh, your hairline's receding. I heard that you raped your sisters when you were growing up. What?

That's okay. That's not the dozen, sir. Please go home. With respect to the war in Gaza, President Biden and I are working around the clock because now is the time to get a hostage deal and a ceasefire deal done. But I've returned to the the DNC, though, because I want to get back to like like obviously, like going into it, it seemed like the kind of the Fisher or, you know, like the whatever was worried about if you were a Democratic Party partisan was the idea that like, the pro Palestinian protesters or the issue of Gaza would upend the, you know, carnival of good feelings that we had at this DNC. But like, Dave, there was definitely this controversy over like,

will they let the uncommitted delegates speak or not? Oh, yeah. And they did not. But like, am I I mean, like, am I wrong to assume that like the Democratic Party after this convention basically thinks Gaza and Palestine, like we can put that one to bed if that issue is over for us? I mean, like, like it speaks to a certain confidence of like when they were filing out a convention center literally with their fingers in their ears going la la la I can hear you la la or just making fun of the death of an 18 year old kid. That speaks to me a certain confidence and it's like it's both the fact that like, look, this was not Chicago 68. The protests were not as big as people.

I don't know. I don't know who is expecting what or whatever. the the narrative seems to be that the protests were kind of a fizzle like what do you make like the Democrats like that they feel confident now that Kamala has made some sort of symbolic break with Biden on this and that this issue can be put to bed safely. better after Monday. That is true. And I was one of the reporters outside at the protest reporting back like, hey, it's pretty big, but it's not going to break the doors down, destroy the convention. It was the March on DNC coalition, which was the 270 groups organizing it. They were hoping for 40 to 50,000, which is what they said. They definitely got, I'd say a 10th of that more on some days. There were different rallies around the city. Didn't get that huge. That definitely changed the Democrats posture on this where they weren't going around mocking the protests,

but they realized they were not a big problem. They were trying to, I'll clarify my they, the actual DNC was getting meetings with the uncommitted delegates. They got them a panel at party. So how do I explain this in a non boring way? There's the convention that was United Center. Then there was all the other convention activity

across town at the McCormick Center. And they got them a sold out gigantic panel about Gaza that was on the schedule. And that was sort of, it sounds like it shouldn't be an olive branch and it kind of wasn't, but that was one of their offers. Like, hey, we gave you this, we gave you a panel and you got to put all your guys on it. Aren't you happy about that?

They kept demanding a Palestinian American speaker. They suggested a state legislator and just the Democrats, they would not respond on the record. The thing they were kind of telling reporters is more that, not like, haha, these people are losers and we can't deal with them. It was more, what else are we supposed to do? It's actually about ending the, it's about getting a ceasefire. If we just get a ceasefire, then the protest will go away. They were not, even when you get pushed after a couple drinks off the record, they were

not mocking these people. They just thought, this is an intractable problem. It's BB's fault. We need to end the war. And if we put them on stage, don't put them on stage, it's going to distract from our message without getting us anything. The only part of that I think is defensible, even if you're not a Democrat, is yeah, it would be pretty pathetic if Democrats had one five minute speech on stage and everyone in Michigan was like, all right, sounds great. I'm turning off my TV. I assume the war is going to figure it out. Like they would have still been protesting, but they were trying to be really genteel about it and they're like, nothing we do. This is why

there was so much in Kamala's acceptance speech. Like more than ever had been said in an acceptance speech about Palestinians in particular. They, they wanted that to get out there. Like she, she's on your, it's on her mind. This is on the list of things she wants to get done before the election. Uh, please do not protest us anymore. And, but we're not going to offer anything else for now. But would they have done that if the protest the first day was like 40,000

people destroying the convention? I don't know. That definitely made them readjust their, their position. Yeah. They had the really need that speaking stuff for Leon Panetta. Yeah, that fucked me up. Cause I really distinctly remember like watching him like at the DNC and like 2016, they made such a big fucking deal about Leon Panetta.

They acted like he was fucking like Christ descending from the heavens like giving them an address and he just like sucked I mean they might have had like a video introduction and I was like that was what I wrote like the first moment I started having doubts. So when I saw it they had him and Bill Clinton for prime time That was what they really needed to prioritize just know and also all the drum lines and music breaks That was like really, really important. Just no room in there. The interpretive dancers. Yeah.

The un-committed movement, which obviously different from the people organizing protests outside, they, their, their last-ditch effort for a speaker was this guy who is like from the fucking Atlantic council and is like. from the fucking Atlantic Council and is like extremely anti-Hamas and has, you know, one of the more conciliatory stances towards Zionism in general out of anyone. And even that was like just a bridge too far. I mean, among Democratic staffers,

you said that the feeling is like, hey, it's Netanyahu's fault and he's really you know It's putting us in this shitty position. But is there any acknowledgement that like Okay Sending them weapons kind of gives them the fucking message that they can keep doing this Is there any acknowledgement of that because that that seems to be totally absent from the conversation the one time It was asked of Kamala, she said, it's totally off the table. Yeah. This is the thing they're still in denial about.

They're not in denial about anything Biden related anymore, but they are in denial that there's something they could do to change the policy. The other thing I'd say with the uncommitted folks is that they reminded me of the Bernie delegates who wanted Hillary to just be better in 2016. I remember talking to people like Josh Fox, uh, at the convention on the floor. And they just worried Hillary is going to blow this because she's going to, if she doesn't come out against TPP, if she doesn't make some more promises, their position, his, their position was we're not just doing this because we're obstinate. We're doing this because we think she's going to blow it.

And they were right, she blew it. And the uncommitted delegates, their message was, they had press conferences at least a couple of times a day, we want her to win. We want to come back here in January 2025 under President Kamala Harris and for her to be negotiating with Netanyahu because she doesn't have 50 years of like golden mayor memories like Joe Biden does like maybe she she will deal with this differently, but she needs to prove it. Democrats are definitely just we're going to prove this later. Just count on us to maybe get a ceasefire and we'll be different later. Just vote for us now and shut up. Was they right? Yeah, uncommitted, the characterization of it among like, you know, I won't say the party because they mostly avoided saying anything directly, but like amongst surrogates was so, the characterization of them was so insane to me

because it's like these, I see the uncommitted movement as like a group of people who are already probably gonna vote for fucking Kamala anyway, begging Kamala to make it somewhat more palatable. Like this idea that they are like they're characterizing them like the Bernie or bust people in 2016. They're talking about them like they're us in 2016. And it's like they're the most like work within the fucking party movement I've ever seen.

Yeah, yeah. They really wanted they wanted just give me something to go back home and tell my relatives Actually, they're trying to do something to end the war or they're going or they're going to end it or they're going to treat this differently that by they just they just wanted something to tell their friends because everyone else is coming back with a packet of Exciting Kamala takes to go go door door with and they're saying we literally can't we can't we can't go to Dearborn and say yes, the the the president who just the vice president who is working with Biden to do nothing different is credible you should vote for that's what they wanted and they didn't they didn't really get what you see

in like, like, you know, like there was a I have a Washington Post piece here about like, Democrats tamp down Gaza dispute for now with concessions and clampdowns. And it says here, Harrison Republic comments has emphasized Palestinian suffering more than President Joe Biden and has held Israel about the beginning of the show about like all these people that were Biden ride or die. You know, like it would be suicide to switch out the nominee. It's only going to be Biden. It has to be Biden. The ease with which that they've now transferred like, you know, just completely changed into being Kamala's brat. We love Kamala. Who's Joe Biden? It's like the ease at which they do that, I think, is connected to their inability to conceive of why anyone is still pissed off at the Democratic Party and Kamala over this, because like they're like, look, she did the thing you all wanted.

She said she recognizes the suffering of just she recognizes the suffering of Palestinian people. What more do you want? And it's just this this idea that idea that like this is politics to them. It's like, well, look, you got the panel at the MacArthur Center or whatever. What more do you want? The idea that like their politics isn't about like real conceivable things, like is this war going to continue or not?

It's just about like, do you get the person to say the thing or like, you know, just like how easily they can just move between like I was always for Kamala Harris to just being like, well, you know, you keep moving the goalpost. What do you really want from Kamala? Yeah, somebody remind me of I'm not casting aspersions of the uncommitted people because they were not taking any they were not taking half a loaf and saying, great, you did it. You did it. They were like, thank you for the thing you gave us.

We want more. But I think what the Democrats wanted, I remember I was covering this women's March rally in 2018. The main room was 2017, 2018 was a big political rally in Vegas. And I was right in front of these women who just kept screaming, like, talk about sex workers, say something about sex workers,

because they wanted you just here. We wanted our names to be mentioned as we are also in the coalition. And it was out of like 10 people. And then finally the 11th person, about sex workers because they wanted to just hear we wanted our names to be mentioned as we are also in the coalition and it was like 10 people and then finally 11th person I think was always um richards from Planned Parenthood said and sex workers and they said yeah and then they sat down the one thing they wanted was please mention our movement in your speeches and once they were mentioned they're like they mentioned us we're good and that is a lot of people in the democratic coalition right that is a lot of people in the Democratic coalition, right?

That is a lot of people who show up and they say they want something and they get one meeting like we're, you know, we're bloggers. Like this is why the voters of tomorrow is this, this democratic youth organization that started up to be their turning point. But it doesn't make news because it just agrees with Democrats. Most people in the coalition will get into the room and then they're fine, and not uncommitted, not Gaza. So again, they were very careful.

You could not pull them out to be bashing them. They were like, well, we all agree, we all want the end of the war, but it would hurt our scheduling if instead of one five-minute speech from Debbie Wasserman Schultz, whoever wants to hear from, we had these guys instead. They just were, they would not move. And I think part of it was, if we move on this, we're gonna move on, we'll be,

maybe they'll keep asking. Because the arms embargo thing, and that story is in Michigan, I happened to be at this one Harris rally, it was not close to hear the protesters, but she gets protested, she landed, she met with uncommitted delegates, including the ones at the convention. Then there was a separate protest by some students

for justice in Palestine at the convention, sorry, at the rally. Harris tells them I'm speaking, they get annoyed. And the uncommitted people put out the word that they talked to Harris and they hope they can meet with her on an arms embargo, after which point Harris's team says, nope, not doing that. We're not doing arms embargo. We will continue to meet, but not on the thing they want. And that's what they want. That was what worried them is if we have a meeting and then they come out and tell reporters, great news, they've agreed that we might have more to negotiate. They don't want to do that because they're worried about, I mean, they've raised more money than any candidate ever has in the same period Of time and they've got a lot of heel back on the tent. They're just more worried about them

They're just more worried about not pissing off Large donors who want them to hear that they're not changing anything with Israel. It's I'm not defending that I'm just right and we're going through this chart of ways which they did this all of which end with them taking the the more cautious non non this, all of which end with them taking the more cautious, non-sympathetic position to uncommitted. I mean, like, yeah. That's why they're doing it. They're just like, no, no, no, we need you in the tent.

Like, you don't see this group. You see this, like this climate group that just stopped talking. You see how the Latino groups stopped talking, even though we endorsed a Trump voter bill. Can you be like them? They're just not going to do it. They're not going to attack us. Be like them. It's working out great for them. They're like for Latinos. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah, like I I dearly wish this wasn't the case, but it does seem like they are confident with this huge swing in momentum and all the energy and positive feelings. I think they're confident going to this election that Gaza is not going to be a critical issue in this election. Certainly they have the media behind them. But like more than that, the genuine good feeling and

enthusiasm of Democrats who have been told, hey, look, she feels Palestinian suffering and that's good enough. And I think it's horrible, but I think that they have, I don't know, tell me I'm wrong here, but I think they've accurately deduced that like they can get away with this election and not change a single thing about Israel and Palestine. My take on, I thought I wrote about in the article, like the article I just published, the assumption there that they have, which is like being afraid of having to give more on Palestine than they already have, like if they like start talking serious about an

arms embargo, that's something they actively need to avoid. That's I think more informed by their presumptions than the actual information. We have obviously donors are a different story but there was a poll around last July, it was before Biden dropped out and I cited this, where they asked voters how they would like vote just in a generic race between Democrats, like this is at the congressional level, between Democrats and Republicans, and then they gave different policy positions with Democrats and Republicans on different issues. It included a ceasefire, and the guy who conducted this talked to me about it, and he said he didn't expect this to be the result, but they found that when they didn't ask anything, Democrats led by three in the generic ballot.

When they told them that the Democrats and Republicans both agreed on, like, Israel, they had the same position on that policy, the number of undecideds went up by a lot, and Democrats and Republicans were actually tied. So there was a three-point swing in the Republicans' favor there. But when they said that Republicans agree with Israel's current approach, like opposing them as a Democrat, who supports a ceasefire and a halt of military and arms sales to Israel, not only did they do as well as a generic matchup, they actually led by six points. So they doubled their lead when presented with this, like the Democrats doubled their lead

when voters were told that they supported both the ceasefire and an arms embargo. And you can like kind of like say any number of reasons for that. You can say they're winning over some voters who were still skeptical of them. I think what like makes the most sense to me is that it's a break from Biden in any direction, which they seem to like just looking like this is a Democrat who disagrees with Biden in a significant way, who people broadly see as incompetent. His approval rating on Israel-Palestine is below 30%. It's lower than his approval on immigration, crime, and inflation, which people really have not keyed in on. Obviously, you'll need more than just one poll for this, but if you're making an objective look at the political reality, but looking at why she's done so well, just being someone different than Biden who is perceived

as more competent and like steady and capable than he is, and you see like breaking from him at immigration as this big thing you have to make a big deal over, breaking from him on a position where he's even less popular than immigration, at the very least, there seems to be not much downside for that, but they perceive there to be downside in a way they don't see for immigration because this is a crucial point that I kind of came to. These are still the same exact people who ran Joe Biden's campaign.

Like the leaders, these are the people who tried to run an 81 year old talking about how unions were his domestic NATO. Like it's the same exact group of people. Are the grad are the grad student unions of Finland? Yeah, yes they are. Yeah, nobody thought he could get them in there. It's a huge break.

Starbucks is Sweden. All right. All right. Oh, we got it. We got to wrap it up there today because Dave's got a hard out, but we'll leave it there for today. I want to thank Dave Weigel and Josh Entengermentum for checking in on the election. Yeah, thanks for having us on.

Yeah, thank you so much. Cheers. Great talking to both of you and we'll talk to you again soon. Music