Chapo Trap House - CTH943943 - The Tehran Offensive feat. Séamus Malekafzali (6/16/25)_edit_mixdown.output

Episode Date: June 17, 2025

Seamus joins us to discuss last week’s “preemptive” Israeli strike on Iran, the damage done to Iranian command and infrastructure, Iran’s retaliation, America’s potential involvement. We also look at Trump’s big birthday Parade, one of the most pathetic & hilarious spectacles of American Military prowess any of us have ever seen.  Read Seamus on the attacks in the Intercept: https://theintercept.com/staff/seamus-malekafzali/Read Seamsu go long on the Axes of Resistance for Parapraxis: https://www.parapraxismagazine.com/articles/axes-of-resistanceSubscribe to Seamus’ Substack: https://www.seamus-malekafzali.com/ New merch for the summer up at https://chapotraphouse.store/

All I'm gonna do is hit a chocolate All I'm gonna do is hit a chocolate Hello everybody, it's Monday, June 16th, and we've got some chapeau for you. On today's episode, Felix and I are joined by our good friend Seamus Malachowzeli, who is back. Seamus, all I got to say is it's been quite a weekend and we knew you were the first person we wanted to have on to talk about war with Iran. So I'd just like to start with Thursday evening right after we got done recording with Pendejo Time. I checked the headlines and I was like, well, that episode

was certainly timely. Let's just start with Thursday evening. Israel launched what they're calling a preemptive strike on Iran. They targeted Tehran, a nuclear site. And Seamus, what can we say about the events of Thursday night? Like, what is your assessment of what happened on Thursday and then like the aftermath? I mean, nothing has been seen on this scale since the war with Saddam, since the war with Iraq. And even then, nothing like this happened during that war. The idea that the entire top military brass could be taken out in just

one go. I don't think was anticipated by many outside observers. Even I didn't anticipate that they would go all out in that opening salvo. I mean, they took out the chief of staff of the armed forces, the deputy chief of staff, the commander chief of the IRGC, multiple different nuclear scientists and then killed more nuclear scientists yesterday in car bomb attacks that were set off at the exact same time that there was a massive barrage of airstrikes against Tehran. I think everybody knew that the Mossad had penetrated Iran, even more so than any other country. But to this extent, to the extent that there were, I mean, just as they, that the Mossad agents had a whole three story building in Tehran where they were making drones that

they could fire and sabotage Iranian military operations with. It's immense. It's very difficult to properly explain how devastating of a first strike this was and how uncertain things are at this current moment. Just as a follow up to that, and I want to get to both the topic of Masad penetration into Iran and other groups, and as well as the assassinations and the incredibly undercover car bombing story. But I was curious about this because yeah,

it was a very devastating first strike, but the conventional knowledge I saw both from like FDD types and more people who are more officially aligned with Israel or just, you know, Israeli media sources. The conventional knowledge after that was, at least in public, that there will be the Iranian response will be at most like the very telegraphed drone and intercepted missile strike we saw last year, because, but by their reasoning, they said that anyone who would coordinate that response

was killed. I don't really believe that that was the Israeli calculation but I mean, was there some expectation of that? Like how much do you think they baked in the Iranian response in the following debt? I think outside observers, the kinds of people you're talking about, the people who really believe everything

about what Israel says about itself, I think the person you're describing is Brett McGurk, the guy who said that everyone would coordinate the Iranian response is dead. Now, obviously, that isn't the case. I mean, this is a devastating attack against the Iranian military, but they immediately appointed replacements who are very experienced. And obviously they were able to coordinate a response very quickly.

So that's not to be true. But I don't think like Israeli military officers, I don't want to give them a whole lot of credit, but they do understand to a large degree what Iran's capabilities are and Israel's leaders do as well. And if the intent as it has been clearly shown is to bring America into this war against Iran and make it the major force that is attacking that country, you can't do that with the kinds of Iranian responses that were received before. You have to invite a really devastating strike against your country and something that's sustained to the point where America has to intervene or else the suburbs

of Tel Aviv are going to continue to be have destruction visited upon it every night. They did anticipate this though to the degree that Iran has been, I don't know what the right word is, how much it's been able to successfully target certain Israeli facilities like the Haifa oil refinery, like the ministry of defense. I don't know if that part was, was as well predicted. That's my, that's my personal observation. Yeah. It's a quite a notable inversion of the usual conventional wisdom about both these countries, which, you know, if you have listened to like any

Washington think tank or, you know, uh, Israeli lobbying arm since after 9 11. The conventional wisdom is Iran and just Shia in general, it doesn't matter what branch, they just love dying. And in fact, they'll sacrifice their people because it's their favorite thing to do, which in this case, I mean, willfully, uh, letting your people get maimed in support of some broader strategic goal. That is absolutely what Israel is doing. Oh, for sure.

I mean, you can see from like the constant responses from people who were 100% cheerleading the destruction of homes in Gaza, the destruction of all aspects of its society. Now they're talking about how, oh God, we have to be in bomb shelters. Oh my God. Can you believe that they're firing things at civilian areas? And this is the thing when Israel cuts the defense minister, when Netanyahu is talking about, and the president of Israel are all talking about how evil

this was, this was always the intent, right? You can't just justify this war on the basis that they're attacking the ministry of defense or the, or they're attacking, um, you know, IDF bases like they did in the past, during past strikes, when they almost exclusively focused their strikes on air bases, which the attacks on Iran and assets have come from. They needed this.

They needed the civilians who put in danger. They needed these stories of anguish among the population of Tel Aviv because otherwise there wouldn't be a moral centering to justify this war with. I mean, it's also why they're trying to instigate some sort of rebellion in Iran and nobody at the moment is fighting because if this is solely against the nuclear program, then this becomes about the initial stuff about Iraq, the weapons of mass destruction, which tried to be bunk. But when that became about freeing the Iraqi people, then it became ennobled and this is the same way.

Khamenei is evil. The Zagreb public is a force of evil. It endangers everybody, but we can free these people. We can protect our people in Israel and we can secure a grand future for the people in Iran, as long as America enters into this war. That stuff, I feel like the, you know, the Iranian people are cheering on the strikes, all that bullshit thing where they'll, they'll take like videos from like, um, Persian New Year's celebration and be like, this is what people on the streets

of Tehran were doing during the strikes. It's, I think that is entirely for a Western audience, but we'll get into it later. Like in Israel's ideal world, how this plays out. But that switch up from this is about the nuclear program to think how bad the molas are is very noticeable. Seamus, so Thursday saw the initial strike on Tehran and other targets. And funny, I noticed that the way the Western media covers this is that Israel is hitting

targets in Iran. And then Iran retaliates, responds to the wave of missile attacks on their country with a, you know, wave of missile attacks on Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel. And that is described as Iran is attacking Israel. They're not selecting and hitting targets. They're attacking Israel. I mean, not exactly a false statement, but like it's hard to tell because of media censorship and whatnot.

What do we know about the scope of Iran's retaliation to the wave of missiles that hit their country? Because we've seen several ways of Iranian missiles targeting Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel. What can we say about the scope and scale of Iran's response and how effective it has been? They've been mostly focusing on strikes against Tel Aviv and Haifa for the moment.

In Tel Aviv, most of them have been against the most major parts of it have been the Ministry of Defense, but also, I mean, just buildings in the area. Mostly I think the most of the damage was suffered in Southern Tel Aviv, at least from the visits that Nen Yahu and Isaac Herzog made to the area. In Haifa though, there seems to be the most particular targets, the Haifa oil refinery, the power plant, the port itself. Haifa's port is the most important port in Israel, and striking it was the, it was a was a state of the intention of the, the Houthis who tried to impose a, a siege from the air over it, though they weren't very

successful at that. They're trying to target the economic centers of, of Israel at the moment, right now. Things that years and years ago, the weaknesses of Israel were pointed out by Iranian military stretches as a fact that it's a very small country, area-wise. Strikes on one area or another have potential for really devastating effects on the rest of the country. The port of Haifa is one of those choke points. Focusing on that has the potential to really disrupt the Israeli economy.

That's why they're focusing on that has the potential to really disrupt the Israeli economy. So that's why they're focusing on that. I saw an evacuation warning published by State TV for the Israeli city of Bnei Brak, which is east of Tel Aviv, so they may focus on that tonight. And as well, there was an evacuation warning for Channel 12 and channel 14 in Israel because the IDF just bombed the studios of Iran's national broadcaster today. Though to the degree in which they'd be able to hit that, I'm not sure. I have noticed, I mean, and you have to like kind of take everything that anyone who has, you know, open source Intel in their bio with the fucking truckload of

salt. But I've seen it from enough people whose opinions and analysis on this I respect that there seems to be an Iranian emphasis on S E A I D suppression of enemy air defenses. Basically what people are from as much as they can tell, Iran is using their older generations of short range ballistic missiles to hit like FAD batteries and iron gun batteries and then sending the more advanced missiles to To hit actual targets I mean obviously it's just makes sense to do that to take out things like that batteries that are a

Incredibly expensive to replace and be in a year America does not make enough of them to you know replace Israel's entire stock much less service the needs of our military and other paying clients but is this does this suggest like a longer term strategy like is is the hope with Iran that they can basically keep this up, that they can that at a certain phase will be done with SEAID and that they can hopefully inflict like a maximum amount of economic damage as you alluded to, while still sort of not, not making it so that there, there is like 9 11 type imagery that Israel could exploit because that's sort of, if I could, if I could evince any general strategy, it seems to be that.

I'm a little bit less informed on the specific strategy of what missiles they're using. I do know what you're referencing. Um, there was a video of the Iranian missiles. One of the barrages either last night or the night before hitting air defenses, hitting air defenses in Tel Aviv directly. The only direct evidence I know of someone stating that these strategies to use older missiles against those

was from Professor Mohammed Madandi. He said that they were using older missiles before they used the newer missiles. And there does seem to be much more powerful missiles being used in these branches. Yeah. I don't, I would, I would advocate that any listening to this look up some of the videos from last night in particular. The shock waves that you can see in the clouds, the size of the explosions, the warheads are very distinct from the ones that were being used in previous

assaults. Um, the only thing that I would say makes me a bit skeptical of the idea that they're intentionally being able to hit anti-aircraft batteries is because, um, like buildings like the ministry of defense, these are large enough that a ballistic missile can be fired at them but the intentional targeting of anti-aircraft batteries was something that was really the purview of Hezbollah when they were on the border and they were

very targeted missiles with cameras on them and they could really do pinpoint strikes in that way. Ballistic missiles from that far away are a bit of a different thing, but as for the longer term strategy of what they want, I think they may be going toward something more sustainable, something maybe lower intensity to where they can try to do consistently trigger alarms, force Israeli surveillance systems into states of alert while not needing to do hundreds of missiles at a time. They're already getting smaller with each barrage. I think similar to what you're talking about is the fact that

Iran keeps firing, uh, small amounts of drones at Israel that just keep moving around the country, forcing helicopters to go track them. They, and just keep doing that for like hour after hour, day after day, even if it's not accompanied by missiles. Um, that's, that's an example of, of, of that sort of strategy. for like hour after hour, day after day, even if it's not accompanied by missiles. Um, that's, that's an example of, of, of that sort of strategy, but as in terms of a longer term one, I'm not sure. And I don't speak about anything, uh, with, with that kind of certainty. Yeah.

I mean, I, I think we talked in private about the nature of making predictions as you were saying, and I don't want to corner you into that, but yeah, it's, sure. That is sort of the central question, right? Like how, to what extent can Iran, how long can they make them pay basically? If it's going to continue to be this, if it's going to continue to be like short range

ballistics fired at each other. I will say this and you know Iran's ballistic missile arsenal is is thousand strong. This is something that's agreed upon by both the the statements of the Iranian military but also the IDF. That is an independent assessment but this kind of large scale barrage that we've been seeing large scale barrage that we've been seeing. Um, they can't keep it up. And the issue then comes to, okay, if they do a low intensity thing, the IDF can run out of interceptor missiles. It could have supply chain issues with getting new air defenses, getting more weapons.

We've seen examples of this kind of choking, even when it comes to Gaza and some of this is that's a much smaller scope of things that they have to deal with, but they still have the United States to constantly resupply them and they have no issues with giving them whatever they want. Iran doesn't have those kinds of relationships with different countries. Russia and China. They're able to get weapons for abroad, but they don't have a benefactor quite like America does. It's its own domestic manufacturing base, and that's being disrupted right now by all this Israeli assaults. Right. I've seen people kind of wish casting about China replenishing them in that way. But if America like China, if America in kind, one third of Iran's trade was with America,

you know, I don't think we would. Yeah, I don't think they would, you know, replenish Israel in kind. And that is unfortunately the case with China. It makes you really miss the USSR. Seamus, to the question of Israel's benefactor, obviously some sort of all out war with Iran is something that Israel has been planning for and hoping for for decades. But a key component of that is that they want America to lead it. They want America to get involved. And what do you make of the reaction of the Trump administration?

Cause it's this very weird thing where like, they have this like, this, this sense that like, oh, uh, we, we weren't consulted, but we were like, what do you make of this sort of, uh, the, this weird contradiction in the Trump administration's reaction to Israel's preemptive strike on Iran? I have to be honest. I have been able to quite quantify like the exact ways that Trump is thinking about this. I mean, it does go back to the fact that Trump fundamentally is mentally declining. Like we shouldn't think of this.

He is not doing as well as he was in his first term, which already he was not doing as well as he was in most of his adult life. I think to some degree, he was aware of the deception that was being offered up by the Israelis. He was a wooing participant in that. I don't think he would have spoken in the way that he did about the attacks against Iran if he was not aware of that. But also, I just think he acquiesced to this, even if he personally had objections to being a war with Iran president.

I mean, he did head off the prospect of another war back in January after Robert Talley had for Soleimani who he ordered assassinated. He has that impulse within his head that's been demonstrated publicly, but there's all these pre there's all this pressure on him from Israel, from likely other people in his administration who he has staffed, these Iran hawks. I just think there were Nenya who convinced him of the ability of Israel to do this, I'm sure, with the understanding that America probably wouldn't that do get involved. And now that the conversation is quickly going towards no America, you have to get involved. Trump has so little ability to remember things or to really put up much of

a fight against suggestibility that this is what it's going to that there is going to be military movement in that way. Probably the best example of Trump's dotage on this issue comes courtesy of Sohrab Amari who posted this over the weekend. He says, I spent an afternoon and early evening calling sources in and near the administration and also people on the other side, Dems, and their own sources on the inside, they all rejected the notion that this was some genius coordinated dance between Trump and Israel. All I had heard that Trump was agitated all around.

And in a call with BB told him not to, but also maybe you can. One source described it as a green light and a red light. One source. Are we ever going to have a non-Brandon president? Yeah, I feel like that, sorry, it follows up. It says one source described it as a green light and a red light and another called it a yellow light. The overall impression was something far more chaotic and accidental than the Iran hawks suggested. Numerous sources claim that Trump planned to disavow it if it went badly and to own

it if it appeared successful. The latter is for now his assessment. So I don't know, was this successful? Is he going to own it or distance himself from it? He 100% sees it as successful. He is getting, I guarantee you he is only getting positive assessments whenever he calls Netanyahu or Netanyahu calls him, or he speaks with American intelligence officials, because I think like in a, in like a bare bones, um,

like in a, like, I don't know if the right word is objective, but like, if I tell you that Israel took out the, again, the top military brass of the Iranian military in one go, and they're consistently air strike Tehran, you would consider that, um, a measure of good progress on Israel's part towards its objectives. I mean, it's right now it's talking about achieving aerial superiority over Tehran, even though that's an over exaggeration. I'll just say that much. If you are getting these assessments and you're not thinking about what happens a week from now, like when Netanyahu says, I mean, justice said today that if they assassinate Khomeini, they're already talking about this, that it'll end the conflict. He's making that sell to Trump when he says these things. If we get the go ahead to blow up Khomeini, or better yet, we get you to do it with your bunker busters, which you have your B2

bombers, then this conflict could end Iran will surrender and American lives don't have to be sacrificed. But obviously that is not the case. And then Yahoo's thinking, what would like what would American involvement in this war want? Like what would it be his like blue sky ask? Are we talking like an invasion of Iran with US military like troops or like air support? Like to what extent do they want America to get involved in this war? What would that look like? I was talking about something similar with this with Derek Davison, great friend of the show on American prestige a little bit ago. And i go back and forth about whether and then yahoo like actually wants regime change totally. But i think right now what i would want to something similar to the deal that was struck up about yemen in which is rules being consistently attacked by yemeni missiles.

being blocked by the Yemeni Navy, but America did the vast majority of the strikes. It took that burden off of the Israeli Air Force's hands and it allowed it to refocus on Gaza. That would be of a great benefit to Israel because America has better intelligence about these things. It has more access to weapons. It doesn't need to filter it into the Israeli military. It doesn't have to go through that supply chain. And it also leaves Israel to do the big stuff. Like, for example, in Yemen, destroying the airport of Sana'a, for example,

or bombing different ports along the coast. That would be the ideal, though the way that they're talking about regime change right now, I do wonder if the intent is to make America invade Iran. And then the burden is overwhelmingly offloaded onto the United States to do everything in this respect for Israel. Installing a new regime, finding a new opposition move to take power, fighting off Iranian military assets, doing whatever. In either case, the point is to not let Israel have to sacrifice very much in order to destroy the rest of the Middle East. Okay. Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and now Iran. The list continues to grow here. Like what do we make of this ever expanding horizon of countries that Israel is allowed to bomb with impunity?

Like what does that say about the state of Israel as a political and military entity that like, seemingly for their own security or as they claim, and their broader goals involves this like endless list of other countries that have to be bombed and destabilized. Regime change, I don't know. I don't know if we can really bite that off.

But the thing is, just with bombing, I think they can do a long way to just de-develop Iran and just make it a basket case, like a wreck, like they've done with Lebanon and Syria and like certainly Gaza they've completely destroyed. I think de-development is, is the best word to describe the situation. I mean, even if Israel maybe on some days truly does want regime change, or maybe the, the Shah of Maryland goes back and takes power, he, I mean, what they, what they really want is more than anything is chaos. In Lebanon, they can exploit the tensions between Christians and Shias.

They can make that an ethno-religious conflict. In Gaza, they're trying to inspire divisions between people who, like the idea that Hamas are politically Iranian or politically Shia, because almost everyone in the strip is Sunni. But in Iran, I mean, that main cleavage is like people who are more irreligious and the religious governance. So they're playing on that. And you can see that now with the idea of issuing evacuation warnings for places that are near both weapons manufacturing facilities, but also supportive institutions, which can mean fucking anything in terms of it's the state government, it's the

it's the entire state, essentially, that can it's the entire, uh, state essentially that can be expanded out everywhere as it was with Gaza. I mean, right now they've been bombing hospitals in Iran on the spurious accusations, uh, spread around by Twitter accounts that the IRGC has set up missile launches there. It's the same playbook being done over and over and over again, but with different steps here. I mean all of his accusations against hospitals being Hamas based in Gaza was adjusted for Lebanon

that Hezbollah was hiding gold under hospitals in South Beirut and now it's that IRGC are hiding ballistic missile launchers alongside hospitals in Iran. It's the same thing over and over again. And the intent is to make these places distrustworthy amongst themselves, amongst civilian populace, disdainful of resistance, constantly afraid that they are near something that Israel would target because it's somewhat related to the IRGC or the Iranian army. It's, it's a recipe for the reduction of these societies, these countries into states that are not only not just a threat to Israel, but don't function as countries in any way, shape or form and are fundamentally subjugated to the will of whatever Israel's intelligence chief decides that day.

Yeah, that is a very stark aspect of not just Israel's intelligence chief decides that day. Yeah, that is a very stark aspect of not just Israel's campaign of genocide in Gaza, but just their overall strategy for, I think especially like the last 20, 30 years. When they talk about, usually in line with people who talk about the Iraq War as America, you know, stumbling into conflict that we made an oopsie. The rejoinder to that is, and then we ended up giving, you know, we ended up giving Iran this great big

regional ally. And, you know, that would of course mean that Netanyahu and a lot of other right-wing elements in Israel at the time who supported the Iraq war made this great strategic blunder. But that's not really the case. It's not that they never saw that coming. It was they liked the idea of Iraq becoming this basket case that would have to fight a low intensity civil war for maybe forever against aggrieved former empowered Sunnis. And you see it with every time there is a new enemy on the horizon for Israel. The first thing they do when they really get rolling is try to destroy any sense of a cohesive national identity and to destroy any sense of community.

In Gaza, what that looks like is these plant killings at aid sites, the killing of the families of doctors. And for Iran, this is what it looks like. I mean, you can look to Syria to see what the results of this are. I mean, people ask now, like, what is the end game? Like if, if they get everything they want and, uh, you know, this great enemy is reduced to a Libya like, uh, basket case where there's three different capitals and there's just no hope of it ever ameliorating.

It would be like an entire region that is just like that. It's just a bunch of like city states and then all the golf hotels where endless endless treaties that result in nothing are negotiated. I should add on to that i mean we see this we see the sort of talk and in in gaza in lebanon in syria and now when he runs the stock is again. on this talk is again, um, reared his head about why, why can't we just make peace with Israel? Now this isn't working. Let's, let's make peace with Israel. Now we can end these conflicts and then we can become like Dubai. That's all from the common refrainer or something along those lines.

But let's, let's, let's take the step by step, right in Gaza. What is the offer on the table? If Hamas decides to give up its arms and surrender? Israel has openly talked about using the opportunity to expel the rest of the Palestinian population from the strip. That's the end goal. There is no, either it's death or expulsion. That's not a deal. That's not a peace deal being made for Gaza to become a better place. It's a deal for you to continue to lose everything. In Lebanon, the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, what has it eventually gotten in this ceasefire state? Waves of airstrikes still on South Beirut, continuous airstrikes in the south of the

country that prevent any sort of reconstruction taking place. There was an airstrike just today, an assassination strike on a Hezbollah member, a supposed Hezbollah member. And that's been happening every single day since this ceasefire was achieved last year. Planes can no longer come from Tehran because Israel threatened to take down those planes if they came into Beirut airport. So the airport is not controlled by a different country. And in Iran, do you really think that they're going to suddenly stop controlling Iranian

affairs if they decide that they don't want the smoke or whatever the hell it is? No, they're going to use that opportunity to continue that subjugation, to continue using its influence, to make sure that Iran never gains any sort of military power whatsoever. Just on I-24 News, an Israeli channel just before I got out here, they were talking about the fact that Israel should demand that Iran give up its missile making capability, something that many sovereign states have to build missiles, period. They're not demanding you give up your nuclear program. That's a ruse. They want the whole thing. They've always wanted the whole thing.

Yeah. Yeah. No, the end result always looks like Syria, where there is no way you can actually say that it's a sovereign state. That is it. It's just the end of sovereignty for anyone else in the region. And then these modern Veneces that are just hotels and nothing else. You know, I feel like you brought it up a second ago, but I do want to mention that this new front in this war has opened up at like the exact same time that Israel has like basically blacked out all communications coming out of the Gaza Strip and they have day after day massacred people at these quote-unquote humanitarian aid sites that are just firing

squads 20, 30, 100 people day after day and I guess, I bring this up just in the context of Israelis in bomb shelters saying nobody deserves to live like this, this is inhuman, this is awful. And I guess like the scale of this violence is so undescribable and it just, it gets worse and worse and now expands into another country of 90 million people. And I guess like I say this because is there the only hope to stop any of this is military action of some kind by these by the states and peoples being destroyed by Israel right now. So shame is like, what would a victory or a like, I don't know, effective response that

could that could stop this? Like what would that look like? That I'm very unsure about, and I have to be really honest. I will say this for Iran. They are treating it now like they should have been treating it months ago, if I can speak frankly, and that they are hitting Israel with all that they have. They are, whenever Israel hits something of a certain sector in Iran, they hit Israel in that sector, but they're still in that reactive position that they were before.

Right. The only thing I can really say with some degree of certainty, not with complete certainty, is that there was, I think, a path to stopping Israel last year. When Floyad Shukr was assassinated in South Beirut, and that was quickly followed up by the assassination of Ismail Hania in Tehran, there was a point, and we had discussed this on the show right after it happened, in which Yemeni strategists were talking about a combined response from the Axis of Resistance to overwhelm Israeli defense capabilities and show what would happen if war came or expanded, that they would work as a unit and that they could make

this a very difficult thing for Israel. It wouldn't be able to do what it has been able to do up until this point. And once Hezbollah and Iran decided to retaliate separately, they delayed and they delayed and they retaliated separately, that destroyed the entire deterrence capability of that group. And it was what led to the assassination of Nasrallah and it has led to what has happened here I think. There is some level of that coordination being brought back up. When there were missile barrages fired by Iran, I believe two nights ago,

Yemen announced there was a first barrage and then there was a second hypersonic missile fire just a few minutes after. And Yemen announced that it had coordinated that operation with the Iranian military. So this kind of coordination that it had wanted since the beginning was now finally happening, but after so much had already been lost. If they can repair these lines, if they can get Hezbollah back in that fight, even though that seems very impossible, then maybe there is something. But as long as Iran fights alone in this matter, even if Yemen is with them,

100%, that's, that's, it's an uncertain fight ahead. Iran has more capability to defend itself than anyone else, but that's against Israel, against America? That's a very difficult thing. Well, I mean, another huge aspect to this is the nuclear angle. I mean, I know this is being justified based on the idea that Iran is like minutes away from having a nuclear arsenal. I mean, I'm astonished they don't have one already. Oh my God, dude. I'm astonished they don't have one already. And if. Oh my God, dude. Like, uh, forget, forget Iran's like, uh, potential nuclear weapons program. Israel has an arsenal of several hundred nuclear weapons and second strike

capability that is holding America and the entire region of the Middle East. Hostage essentially. Cause like, I mean, they could use them. But like, what is your assessment, like, now that Iran is now officially at war and under siege, what is your assessment? Like, are they going to test or build a nuclear weapon soon? I don't think, yeah. Because if they are, if they are, I've been enriching uranium in my apartment and I have

a little bit that I can lend them. Yeah, no, if I can take the fucking limitless pill and lure all the scary math you need to do to make a thermonuclear bomb, I would get on a fucking Skype call with them right now. I think, here's the thing. There was a major general IRGC Mohsen Rezaie that went on state TV yesterday and was like, no, we're not really thinking of doing that right now. President Pesachkian was in parliament today and said the same thing. As long as Khomeini is alive, that fatwa against Luka Repens is going to remain in place, I think. I don't think he's going to change it. I think that's very important to him and the rest of the is all republic's establishment as like a point of dignity like a point of ideological firmness that if they were

to break on that then it would I don't know it would unravel something though that's something I'm not entirely clear about but right now I mean nuclear scientists have been talking about the fact that they've had this kind of technology for years to make a nuclear weapon, but they've never been given the order to do so. So it's just been sort of sitting in this holding pattern, the stasis for their kind of just simmering below the surface. But they don't say this.

I was thinking that video you posted of a woman on the streets of Tehran just just shouting, give us an atomic bomb. where's our atom bomb? And then the whole crowd starts yelling with her, where's our atom bomb? You talked about it for years, you're gonna jump out or what? You know, people I think are very, after the failure of the JCPOA,

the Iran nuclear deal that Obama negotiated, there was an observable change in the public discourse about previously really not wanting to broach the idea of a nuclear weapon in public and public. And now it's become a very regular topic of discussion. And post the war, like the strikes against Iran, it has never been at this kind of fever pitch before. Right after the attacks happened, there was an Iranian MP who went on state TV and was positively begging the Supreme Leader to change the Fatwa and start building a new weapon. And the hosts were trying to steer him away from that and be like, no, hold on.

This is a very serious issue. No, this is a Fatwa. We don't have to do it. And he's like, well, then we did all these retaliations. Then what, what were they for? What did they do? We need this. If how, like, how long are we going to allow our commanders to be killed and our

children to be killed without the status quo? This is on the minds of many, many people. And the fact that they are discussing this at all, that they're not going to change it means that this pressure is continuing to build. But again, I don't think as long as Khomeini is alive, that is going to change. I mean, if it wasn't clear before, it should be clear to everyone now.

If you're outside like the NATO EU ages, there is no sovereignty without nuclear weapons. There's just two concepts that do not exist separately. Let's just look at the history of this here, right? Libya, when it gave up its nuclear program, what happened only several years later? NATO intervened and now it's a complete failed state. Syria had a nuclear program,

not necessarily a nuclear weapons program, but just a nuclear program. Israel bombed it, they never pursued it again. And then several years later, it was able to be utilized as a playground for foreign powers. Like this continuously, we see examples of nuclear programs that were voluntarily given up

or kept below a certain threshold or they were bombed out of existence and never reestablished. And the outcome of all of these options, of all of these destinies has been complete failure. But look, like I hate to use this as an example because North Korea is not a favorite state by a lot of people, but you cannot deny that North Korea is not messed with. No one's fucking with North Korea. It is not an option seriously discussed by anyone. They've talked about deluclearization, but only if America leaves the peninsula and America isn't leaving the peninsula. So guess what? They're keeping their nukes and nobody is talking about

invading it. That's the point. They continue to exist because of those nuclear weapons. As long as Iran doesn't have them, they will remain under this threat no matter what the outcome of this specific war is. I believe that. I mean, especially in the case of of Libya and Syria, those are crucial to bring up because also in addition to giving up their their nuclear programs, both those countries cooperated with the West during the global

war on terror. Fat lot of **** good it did them. When they've got the beam on you, there's nothing you can actually do. I've seen people go, oh, it's a, you know, Iran and their obsession with Israel or Iran and their, their goddamn nuclear program. Like they could do anything to stop this short of just declaring Iran is over as an entity. Come here and make fucking, you know, make the mecca for sex offenders and all types of nightclubs.

I will say this. I've said this before and I'll say it again, even though I have been accused of, of who thief fetishism by many academics. I'll hold that back. Seamus for you if you want it. I got a hoot the fetish and I need more missiles. They, the Yemeni strategists from the moment the word go of this war have consistently known what to do and they've consistently had, I think the right

approach to Western powers and their negotiators. They understand that like the time in which America or Israel could be negotiated with, if they ever could be negotiated with, is over. They're essentially- I mean, negotiations, they were at the table on Sunday. Yeah, no, it's not real. And now they're being asked to come back to the table?

The table's been blown up. What are you talking about? No, these people are rabbit dogs. Negotiators are dead. There will be empty chairs at that table because you killed the people that were to go like Jesus Christ. How could you even bring up that? It just insults.

Even bring up that fucking concept. No, there is a reason why when Yemen when they were approached for negotiations to separate the fronts They were like no achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and will stop firing end of discussion. We're not doing indirect negotiations We're not doing separate negotiations You either do this or you don't when it came to America coming to the table and saying we want to ceasefire They said okay, if you stop firing on us, we we'll stop firing on you but we're not stopping fire on Israel that's the deal and a discussion and then they took it that's the strategy that Iran should be taking quite frankly and they're thankfully

they're understanding right now that these negotiations were always a fucking lie and a fucking charade and they're not doing them anymore but if they trust America again on this on this matter if they're not doing them anymore. But if they trust America again on this matter, if they're not firm, then I think the outcome is going to be very bad because there's nothing to indicate that they're trustworthy in any way, shape or form. Seamus, a well-repeated chorus from Hawks in D.C. and the foreign policy establishment in America and Europe that we've heard a lot over the last week or so, since the weekend, is we hear over is that the Iranian people yearn for freedom, they want to

overthrow the mullahs, like they are ready. We stand with you people of Iran, like as we're bombing you. And like, there's this idea that like, the Iranian people now is the time to rise up and like collapse the evil government government of the Ayatollah. I mean, from what you can tell of people in Iran, which is a country of 90 million people with a lot of diversity of opinion, very divided along social and political cultural lines, much like the managed pseudo democracy of the United States of America is. What is your best assessment of how the people in, let's say, Tehran and the rest of the United States of America is. What is your best assessment of how the people in let's say Tehran and the rest of the country right now, are they directing their anger at their

own government? Or like what is the possibility that they're going to rise up and overthrow because they're so happy to be bombed right now? I think it's pretty low, I'm going to be honest with you. I've seen statements from like Israeli journalists saying they've received like messages Stating that they're very in favor of it or there was that Washington Post article where they said That Felix was referencing about how people at a little idea they were secretly celebrating The Israeli attacks against their country, but I have not seen there have been no protests. There have been no real expressions of support for Israel so far. The primary support for Israel that I've seen is from Iranians abroad. People who are already within the Iranian opposition access, like Reza Pahlavi

or Masih Ali Najjad, people who are like on the State Department's either prioritized the list or people who are literally on the State Department's payroll. This is not a popular movement, it was never a popular movement. There are certainly people inside Iran who are supportive of Israel and hate Palestinians, but to the degree that they are a large section of the country that has never been proven by anti-Pol, and even if the Islamic Republic, even if Islamic governance is not as popular as it was at the beginning of the Islamic Republic, that doesn't mean that you're automatically in favor of a mass Dahiya doctrine assault on your capital city. That's something

that people are not going to support in large numbers. Well, you know, the thing you have to consider here is that Persia is an ancient and proud people. And because of that, they don't like it when their cities are bombed by foreign countries. You know, we're only we're America is only a couple hundred years old. So I'd be okay with it personally. Oh God. Yeah. I'm the Israeli journalist who I've seen this too.

Um, just people saying, my phone is blowing up with messages from Ronnie and celebrating any time anyone tells you they're getting a bunch of supportive text messages for anything. You are talking to an insane person. Like I'm used to seeing this move when someone like posts like something insane on Twitter. So it's always someone who posts something like, I think we could solve the incel problem if we let them fuck dogs and then, you know, like, like,

like everyone, everyone is like, what the fuck are you talking about? Are you insane? Like stop saying this. And they go, I'm actually getting a lot of text messages from dog owners and incels and say, this is awesome. Actually dogs are texting me and they never show. And even if they did, who gives a fuck? It is the second someone tells you

they're receiving tons of supportive messages. Stop listening to them. Felix, you know, you can say that, but I my phone has actually has been blowing up with lots of text messages and phone calls from all my friends in Israel. And they're all saying, please liberate us from the Netanyahu government. We stand with the Islamic Republic. I'm just kidding, folks. I don't have any friends in Israel. These all my Israeli friends are saying we want to be free from the grip of the Council of Rabbis.

I guess that like the turn to maybe the lighter side or perhaps a more humorous angle to our impending apocalypse here. I just from the domestic side of politics in this country, this is a question, a rhetorical question I've been sort of tossing around in my head this weekend. Where does this all leave the America first movement in this country? Because as best I can compare it to, MAGA America first is like the abundance movement for Republicans in so much as that they're like, they know all the compared to MAGA America First is like the abundance movement for Republicans in so much as that they're like, they know all

the things that they're planning to do and have always wanted to do are deeply unpopular. But they're like, how can we rebrand this so that when we do the thing we always wanted to do, it seems like it's something different? I mean, you know, the Hassan Nasrallah had a really clear-eyed assessment of the situation last year when he talked about the fact that Israel controlling America was something of conspiracy

theory, more of an excuse to do nothing. That America controls Israel, that Biden has the ability to control whatever Israel does. And to a certain extent, that's true. If Trump said tomorrow that Israel needs to stop doing this, I think Israel would have to acquiesce to that request. But the issue is that Trump is never going to do that in the near future. Because it's kind of this process of, I don't know if the right term is, I think it's a self-orientalization, right?

It's the kind of thing that happened with Italian cuisine and tomatoes, right? Italian cuisine, right, Italian cuisine, really, really sucky cuisine back in the medieval era. But once they found tomatoes in the New world, that got brought back to them. And it became a central part of their identity. It's the same thing to a certain extent with Israel in that America exists without this country. But now that it's created this, uh, bulwark of Western civilization out there. Now it's become this kind of central part of America's identity.

It can't operate without the other. And because of that, now Israel's decision-making becomes America's decision-making because of the nature of that relationship to the point, to even granular things. Like, did you guys see that video from the New York state senator in the bomb shelter oh yeah so long yeah hi everyone this is Sam Sutton sending you a video from the basement of the inbound hotel this is the second time today

we've had to come to a shelter and there'll probably be one in the middle of night like there has been for the last three nights. Please, I'm begging you, make sure to vote in the primary this week. Voting started today, Sunday, and goes early voting will go through next Sunday. Do not make a mistake and forget to vote and more importantly make sure governor Cuomo who has been a great friend of the Jewish people will be our next mayor and not a person that doesn't believe the Jewish state has a right to exist. We don't want to be in a situation like this in America. Thank you. He was like my life is in danger right now we're cowering in a bomb shelter as Iranian missiles are rain down on us?

Oh, and by the way, don't rank Zoran for mayor of New York City. Could you imagine we can't afford free buses in New York? Can you imagine this with anything? I want to move to like Joplin, Missouri, but I spend, I'm running for city council in Joplin, Missouri. I spend all my time in Azerbaijan. All my, all my attack ads about my opponent are about how he's Armenian. He's never, he's never left, never left Missouri.

Just some Scott's Irish guy. I say I'm, I'm in a bomb shelter in Baku. This is what we'll get if we elect Scott crap, the Armenian. we'll get if we elect Scott Kraft, the Armenian. Everything about this has gotten so disastrous and so like, I think like an animating belief of the left in America before October 7th was the idea that at some point in the future, Israel will become so much of a burden on American policymakers that they will be forced to reevaluate the relationship. But what October 7th, uh, showed and how, uh, earth shattering of an assault on Western policy of the Western control over the world, that meant that

America was inextricably linked. It was an essentially, um, I mean, one person compared it to an assault on, on Texas, like it was that central to the American fabric. It doesn't matter if it's America first, if it's, you know, whatever, whatever. It's treated as such. There, there isn't a difference between America and Israel in, in those people's thinking. difference between America and Israel in those people's thinking.

One more thing in light of America first, make America great again. I don't know if you guys got a chance to watch Trump's military birthday parade over the weekend, but it really was one of those events that like just put such a nice, I don't know a nice shine on the events of a weekend that saw like I said continued massacres in a blacked out Gaza, Democratic lawmakers being assassinated in Minnesota, paramilitary federal law enforcement, you know rounding up people in Los Angeles from schools and parks and then hundreds of thousands of other Americans protesting and the no Kings movement this weekend Then all of this was like taking place

At the exact same time that Donald Trump chose to have his military birthday parade in Washington DC And I shame us and Felix. I'm wondering you guys you got a chance to watch any of this military parade Oh, yeah. Yeah, I'll put it this way. Um This was the type of affair that Ron Donald caters Like I can see I can see the party down like episode intro font now like the 250 annual army birthday parade now like the 250 annual army birthday parade. I feel like I'm sorry.

The Ron Donald thing is so perfect because I was watching the live stream of this on pbls and every time they would cut to the crowd and by that I mean like the entire Trump administration sitting on the dais or just the the people in the crowd watching tanks go by. dance or just the the people in the crowd watching tanks go by. All I could think about was, are we having fun yet? Are we having fun yet? Because everybody looked miserable. And I got to say, the parade itself was one of the most under underwhelming things I've ever seen as a display of US Imperial military prowess and competence.

If you showed this to the yippies, they would be like, Oh my God, we did it. We levitated the Pentagon. It worked. This is what's left of the US military. I have seen there are longer lines for live podcast shows. Or live podcast shows. They spend so much money on it and there's such a buildup for it. I stupidly thought, I don't know why I thought this, oh they're going to hire like you know 10,000 fucking extras or like they're gonna find everyone who is ever in a Chris Brown

music video because they'll at least have the coordination to march Felix they weren't even marching. Yeah, I couldn't believe it How much of this how much of this the the rhetoric around this was based upon the idea that like we were gonna see Like a Soviet style military parade. Yeah, that was gonna not see stepping Yeah, that was a Nazi. Who's stepping a crossword precision, clockwork precision, tens of thousands of soldiers market marching in like precision timing with huge steps

saluting dear leader. This was like groups of like 10 or 15 guys. I would say not so much a march as a coordinated mozy and a wave past our dear leader Trump. A fucking Marine died training for this. Do you fucking believe that? What? They died during the training for this.

They were mourned by Army High Command. Like, what did you do? How did you die? Did you like did a like an APC go off the ramp and you just like fell under it? Austin Power style. How did this happen to this is the fucking army that's going to invade Iran? Like, what are you talking about? Like, had he not like walked anywhere in 12 years?

It's crazy. I was watching, like I said, I was watching the live stream on PBS on my computer and I just, I kept taking screenshots and each one was funnier than the next. And probably like Dana White looking like he just shit his pants. Marco Rubio yawning. Steve Witkoff looking at his phone. Just like the dour, miserable faces of people in the crowd, like nobody could summon any enthusiasm for this bullshit. It was it was to use Trump's language.

It was a disgrace. It was a disgrace. There there were there were like like you remember in 2018 when like you would see things on Twitter that were like, you know, everyone's school walkout to memorialize. Like all of those were like better organized and had better formations than this. I will say this. I posted about this when the parade was happening and I rewatched the parade in full almost in full later on. There was a military parade in Pyongyang about two years ago,

similarly for another anniversary of the army. And you see the coordination they have, the lighting, the camera angles, the national anthem being said, and all the soldiers know the words and the singers hitting these high notes the editing the fireworks it's like that's how it should be done that was the thing from like that like the the remnants of the Lincoln project but look they said oh the scenes you're seeing art from North Korea and it's like yeah clear yeah no shit. I wish I wish it would actually be marching, right? We're going to smoke, man.

Possibly like the most like crystal clear Paul Verhoeven movement and watching this was when they like the announcer broke away to say, like as a sort of a gaggle of like a dozen guys just sort of walked by in uniform, they were like, we'd now like to take this opportunity to thank our sponsors at Coinbase. So like, this is like our two, the 250th anniversary of the US Army is was sponsored by Coinbase and UFC. Oh my God. Oh, was it Dana White in the audience? Yeah, no Dana White was in the other day.

As he was just sitting there. Oh God. I've seen people, I've seen people more entertained by like their kids, like music recital than him sitting there. Oh God. We need like, this is, this is the thing about, there's no fascist movement in waiting.

It's just this, this pathetic individualism. Oh, God. Yeah, I remember when we talked about it a few years ago how like, the rank and file backbone of these early fascist movements in Europe. They were like these hardened World War I veterans who literally saw the world that they knew destroyed in front of them and came back dead-eyed

and just ready to kill. Not like just throwing their bodies, everything into it because they did not care. Conversely, we have people, we have veterans of the great army birthday bash and operation Amazon prime. After I saw that plane fall off the deck, I knew I didn't even care about my life anymore. I didn't give a fuck.

This, this is the one thing I will finish with this. This is the one thing that gives me like some amount of hope about how an American, like a war with Iran would engage in, like how they responded to the Houthis, how they've, they went about the aid pier in Gaza that also ended up killing people, US soldiers and setting it up. It's a fucking basket case. This isn't an effective fighting force. This is embarrassing.

This is humiliating. This is a national disgrace. If you're an American nationalist, if you're an American fascist, how could you watch that bullshit and be like, hell yeah, I'm with this 100%. This is what I voted for. This is the fourth Reich. Hell yeah. Yeah. Embarrassing, humiliating.

Will we ever have a non-Brandon president? Because that was the other thing I was thinking. Like, this is perfect. Like Donald Trump ran on this idea that similar to Joe Biden before him, he was uniquely qualified to negotiate, uh, negotiate peaceful ends to ameliorate every conflict currently going on in the world and that he, no one could make a deal like him because of his experience and his swag. And fast forward to today, um, his strategy is with Russia and Ukraine is just a tweet, please come on.

Please, please. Like, come on, come on. You know me. Uh, and, um, a new war has broken out that like, I don't really know what to believe. I don't imagine we'll really find out exactly what happened on Trump's end for a couple of years. But this idea that he was like, do it or don't do it. I don't know.

It sounds very much like him. I mean, to think of it face value is him saying, oh yeah, you can never trust anything that I will ever say if you're a foreign actor, which who knows, but it just having such a public flop amidst all of this is just it. I didn't think things could get more Brandon than Brandon. And then I saw Keir Starmer, who is at 1.5 mega Brandon's. This is like, we're breaking into two, two Brandon's now.

Like the potential neck, whoever comes after this, right. Um, whether it is JD Vance or like, uh, you know, Pete Buttigieg, I don't know who, who has the potential to be the biggest Brandon. I think maybe JD, JD has that hapless quality, but I just, we're never gonna get out. We're never going to, we're never gonna leave behind the Brandon-ness of it all. Because we're-

Hyper Brandonization. We're Brandon, we're Brandon. That's who we are. We're remembering the good times and saying, we're the only ones who can do this job. We take one step, our pants fall down. You see the shit streak on our underwear.

A stork flies by and takes a shit on our head. Oh, I actually planned that. The fact that you're making fun of it shows how little you know about strategy. We are Brandon. We will never leave this curse because we will never stop being Brandon. Seamus, the last thing I want to ask you before we sign off for today, is it true that Netanyahu and his cabinet are in Greece right now in like a bunker? I hate to be a wet blanket.

I really do. I really like the idea that he was in fucking Greece. But I think his wings of Zion plane, which is the equivalent of Air Force One, got sent there for protection, which is what they've done a couple other times during Iranian attacks. He was in Israel to oversee the rescue efforts after the Iranian attack. So unfortunately, he was not in Greece. I have to be the bearer of bad news. That's what I need to confirm.

I regret my previous reports that I had gotten from my sources that Netanyahu had gotten a UTI getting fucked by a British tourist in Mike, in, in Mykonos. That was, that was, that was wrong. Before taking down the article. There are there are things there are things that my journalistic ethics cannot allow me to laugh at. But I'm not I'm not a strong man. All right. Well, before we before we degrade their

journalistic ethics any further, let's wrap it up there for today's show. Sheamus Malakoffzeli, thanks so much for spending some time with us today. You got an article up at The Intercept right now about this. We'll link to the article in the show description. I also have something up at Parapraxis magazine just a few minutes ago and you can find my writing at Seamus-Malakoffz-Malekefsalid.com. Links in the show description. Seamus, thanks again so much.

Till next time everybody, bye bye. ["The Daily Show Theme"]