Chit Chat Stocks - Coupang In Free Fall; Uber and Snap Stock Pitches; Gold + Silver All-Time Highs $CPNG $UBER $SNAP

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

The Investing Power Hour is live-streamed every Thursday on the Chit Chat Stocks Podcast YouTube channel at 5:00 PM EST. This week we discussed: (00:00) Introduction (01:15) Meet new guest Aria Radni...a (02:29) Diving into Uber: The Elevator Pitch (17:05) Transitioning to Coupang: The Data Breach Impact (28:36) Netflix's New Strategies: Podcasts and Gaming (44:11) Snap's New Monetization Strategy (52:20) Turning Point Brands: A Deep Dive (57:33) Lululemon's Earnings and Market Position (01:04:11) Bubble Watch: Current Market Trends Aria's Twitter: https://www.youtube.com/@QualityInvest5 Aria's YouTube: https://x.com/QualityInvest5 ***************************************************** Subscribe to Emerging Moats Research: emergingmoats.com  ********************************************************************* Chit Chat Stocks is presented by Interactive Brokers. Get professional pricing, global access, and premier technology with the best brokerage for investors today:  https://www.interactivebrokers.com/  Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC.  ********************************************************************* Fiscal.ai is building the future of financial data. With custom charts, AI-generated research reports, and endless analytical tools, you can get up to speed on any stock around the globe. All for a reasonable price.  Use our LINK and get 15% off any premium plan: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/chitchat  ********************************************************************* Disclosure: Chit Chat Stocks hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Chit Chat Stocks, the podcast that helps you discover your next great investment. I am one of your hosts, Ryan Henderson, and I am joined as always by the one and only Brett Schaefer. And today we have a special guest, Aria Radnia. We are going to be talking Uber, maybe some Adobe. We've got Nike earnings, Lululemon. This is our Power Hour episode where we talk all things financial markets. Plenty of stuff on the docket for this week.
Starting point is 00:00:29 for anyone that is new to the show we do these episodes live on thursdays on youtube at 5 p.m eastern time usually we had some technical difficulties getting started today but we are live now so let's introduce you aria i'll give a little bit of a introduction and then you can tell me where i'm wrong but aria was he worked with me at fiscal ai as a research analyst and He is self-taught, if I'm not mistaken, and runs a YouTube channel of his own where he discusses primarily Uber, but some other stocks as well. Plenty of good coverage over there. But maybe tell the audience a bit about yourself and what type of investor you would categorize
Starting point is 00:01:14 yourself as. Yeah, absolutely. First of all, thank you guys for having me on. I've been a longtime listener, I think, since 2021, 2022, something like that. It's a bit of a surreal experience now. the show. So this should be interesting. Yeah. In terms of investing, I've done a video on this as well, but I wouldn't necessarily label myself or bucket myself into a specific category. Oh, I'm a quality investor. Oh, I'm a growth investor, whatever. I've described it as
Starting point is 00:01:43 sort of the Bill Ackman style of investing, where I would say it's strong moat businesses. It doesn't have to be the widest moat of all time. Strong moat businesses, usually pretty well-known companies. And you kind of invest in them at a reasonable price and hold until egregiously expensive. And a bit of emphasis on that last point where I completely allow myself to sell these businesses if I find a drastically better opportunity. This whole notion of never sell and this and that and whatever, it works for some people, keeps it simple, less tax implications and whatnot. I don't shame you for going that route of things. But I would say me personally, more so strong businesses at a reasonable price ideally try to buy into them and hold until
Starting point is 00:02:25 egregiously expensive or you find a drastically better opportunity yeah it's always nice if you can hold until they're egregiously expensive that's usually a sign things have gone well i think we should start with uber because people have actually asked us to talk about this brett you can cut me off here if you want to start somewhere else but i'm thinking uber aria you are a vocal uber investor uh so i guess maybe give us the elevator pitch why do you like uber in general and then of course we will talk about the quote-unquote waymo threat yeah absolutely um so i mean we could we could start i mean in all honesty we could be spending the entire podcast on this so i'll try to keep it somewhat brief uh but in general you know the the business is a very
Starting point is 00:03:17 dominant network effect business. It has a verb moat. I think we've all seen the free cash flow chart just go up into the right lockstep without failure. It's a fundamentally great business and it's been dragged down by this sort of AV fear. And I'm of the belief that very wrongfully it's been dragged down over this. And there's a lot more implications that people generally don't consider when kind of just chalking it up. Oh, it's a Tesla roadkill or it's Google's roadkill and Waymo is going to come around. And sure, it doesn't maybe look like that right now, but this is just like Blockbuster in 2007 when Netflix came out, or just like Nokia or Blackberry when the iPhone came out. So sure, you don't see it in the fundamentals today, but over time,
Starting point is 00:04:00 this is a business that's going to have its moat eroded, consequently the profitability for cash flow, whatever the case is, and it dies a slow death in essence. I think that's a good job of keeping it brief what what do you say to the person and i'm silently pointing at brett here because i know he's said this before as well to the person that says yes waymo is small now but they are driverless vehicles that are going to expand to a whole bunch of cities and it's a very real threat to Uber's business. What would be your rebuttal? Yeah, absolutely. So we really need to kind of dissect it in the sense of like, what is it that you ultimately believe the AV industry? And by the way, for reference, just so the audience is on the same page, AV stands for
Starting point is 00:04:56 autonomous vehicles, not to be confused with EVs because sometimes it sounds like that. But yeah, with AVs in particular, what we really need to kind of get on the same page with is where do you think this industry is five to maybe 10 years down the line? If you're of the belief that there will be a sort of pseudo-monopoly player, whether it's a Waymo, a Tesla, or somebody else that has a dominant market share, a 70%, 80%, 90% market share five years down the line, that is the scenario in which they completely cut out Uber altogether. Eventually, all if not most of ride hailing goes onto this theoretical AV company, whether it's a Waymo or whoever, and obviously that spells bad news for Uber. Now, I'm personally of the belief, and we'll kind of dive into some
Starting point is 00:05:42 details here, but I'm of the belief that this will be a very fragmented market, similar, but not necessarily exactly like the sort of models, like the AI model race that we've recently seen. I personally think that you'll have a lot of players where, for example, it's a Waymo, Tesla, whoever, where they do have a dominant-ish sort of market share. They have their own app and whatnot. But in order to maximize utilization and maximize revenue per car, they'll also list on an Uber to be able to maximize the utilization and revenue per car. All right. Let me hop in here again. I should say, Arya, thank you for joining the show. I was trying to be patient and also you know testing uh apologies to anyone watching the live stream
Starting point is 00:06:30 my video is not the best and for starting a little bit late there that is my fault to the listeners but we're getting the we're getting the technical difficulties kinked out uh for my new laptop here but aria back to the topic at hand i see i guess on the one hand you can talking circles about uber's network effect its dominance in the industry its dominance i wouldn't say dominance but market share leads many many countries globally right i mean north south america europe what have you on the other hand i just see and we had someone in the chat here saying that waymo raised 15 billion dollars i believe or is in talks to raise 15 billion dollars in capital at 100 billion dollar valuation yes that is a high valuation but
Starting point is 00:07:18 But do you think the fact that Waymo may be able to, I don't know how to say this, operate unprofitably just because they have the alphabet backing, is that something you're concerned about? And maybe what are the KPIs you're looking at to say, hey, look, I'm wrong here because as of now, you look at the numbers, I can pull up some stuff on fiscal AI here. I mean, they look phenomenal. Earnings ratio looks decent. What are you looking at as kind of the big risks? And I guess that's kind of a double question, but thoughts on the heavy capital investments that Alphabet can put in here. Absolutely. Yeah. So, I mean, I don't think there's any denying that, you know, with the Alphabet backing, they can essentially throw infinite money at this thing. I mean, that is the most profitable company on earth.
Starting point is 00:08:04 I think the AV disruption fear, and let's just talk about Waymo in isolation for a little bit here. I think, how about we play this? What would it take in order to actually disrupt Uber? And to answer that, it's not as simple as, okay, this car comes along, the technology is solved, and they keep on expanding into new cities. They offer a car ride at a cheaper price than what it would cost on an Uber, and it immediately becomes obsolete because they cut them out eventually, even though there's a partnership between Waymo and Uber at the moment, right? Eventually, they cut them out quote unquote right the issue is it is like many things not that simple um uber in order to actually replicate the service that uber provides you would essentially need to connect
Starting point is 00:08:47 in this case 9 million drivers with 190 million monthly active users across 70 countries in 10,000 cities that's what you need to do so it's a massive scale issue but again we're operating under the presumption that eventually they do scale and um you know go to a lot of these different cities. The technology is solved. There's question marks around, does this work in all different types of weathers? Because at the moment, it's only like the sunshine belt, right? It's only in cities where there's not much snow or rain or whatever. Let's just say all of that is eventually solved by technology, which it likely will. You still have one very clear issue, which is the supply and demand dynamic of it. So guys, I put a couple of different charts from the Uber. I think
Starting point is 00:09:30 it's the Q4 of last year. Yeah, I can share them while you talk. Investor slide deck? Yeah. Yeah. So I put these in, I think particularly the second one, if you could show that. And this, or excuse me, the third one that I put in there. And this one essentially shows throughout an average week what it would look like in terms of the supply and demand against the baseline. Now, for audio listeners, this may be a little bit hard to visualize. So I do recommend to take a look at this chart maybe on your own time. But essentially what the chart is showing is there's a baseline of, let's just say, and we'll throw some numbers at this to kind of
Starting point is 00:10:01 maybe help it land a little bit more. There's a baseline of like on average per hour Uber in the city of Toronto, for example, does a thousand rides per hour. Right. And so a little bit after midnight that falls all the way down to like 0.3 times. So on average, on hour after, excuse me, on average per hour after midnight, there's only 300 rides being requested. And then there's actually a peak near rush rush hour. So, you know, between the hours of eight and nine or between the hours of four and five, for example, where the demand for that is massively higher. So what you have with Uber is this sort of like supply and demand dynamic. It's one of the clearest sort of supply and demand businesses that you can kind of analyze. And essentially there's a sort of
Starting point is 00:10:47 volatility, if you will, or there's this variance in terms of the supply and demand for vehicles, depending on the hour, the time, if there's a concert happening that night, all these different things. And so because of that, if you are an AV company that is going to do this independently, which we're assuming that Waymo in the future, that's what they're going to do. Or if Tesla comes online, that's what they're going to do. You have a fleet of let's say 500 cars. Now, if there's a thousand cars on average being requested per hour, well, you're underutilized, you're under monetizing. But at some point, a little bit past midnight, there's only 300 rides. So now you have more cars than there's rides being requested.
Starting point is 00:11:24 So again, you have a handful of cars that are sitting idle. The point is you either have too much supply or you have too little supply. And so the real value that Uber would be able to provide is you have this like sort of baseline number of cars on the platform, Waymo or other. And then you would be able to supplement that with actual drivers coming online and offline the platform, depending on those hours. I personally haven't ever driven for Uber. but if you've ever seen the map of an Uber driver, there's multipliers. So if there's a surge in
Starting point is 00:11:56 demand in a certain area, a certain neighborhood of Toronto, for example, then there's multipliers that are applied that drivers go to this area, you'll get 1.5 times earnings, surge pricing. You know what I mean? Yeah, it does. In an open marketplace, you're able to balance the supply better because you can give those incentives and say i know you're not driving right now but if you want a 25 bonus or whatever it is here's a two mile ride near you so i agree with that and the other thing to chime in here is there's this narrative that google will spend whatever but if google will spend whatever why are they raising outside capital for waymo Why are they raising $15 billion from outside investors?
Starting point is 00:12:45 Why aren't they just keeping all that in-house? Like I think there is not – even though Google of all the companies, maybe Amazon, seems the most willing to invest in moonshots, I think there's still ceilings to how much they're willing to throw at these things. $15 billion is a lot though, I will say. it's not open ai a lot but pre-ai we might have said that was an insane amount of money the last thing i'll say on uber because as i already mentioned we can we could talk about this for the entire episode right now i'm pulling up on fiscal ai the ev to ebit and tell me if this is not the best way to look at it tell me if you look at the valuation differently i see ev to ebit trailing of 37. Now, how are you valuing the stock? Because I guess the stock's not a huge
Starting point is 00:13:37 drawdown, but maybe you're not someone that's buying today. But does that seem cheap to you? Is that cheap for their long-term opportunity? Yeah. So valuation with Uber is a bit of a weird one because they're still on the income statement valuation ratios. They're still kind of ramping their margins. So on a trailing basis, I think just off memory, that's like 8% operating margins or thereabouts. Free cashflow margin of this business, which is a little bit overstated because of the insurance reserves, it is significantly higher. It's roughly 18, maybe 20%-ish. There's a couple of different ways you could do the valuation. You could value it on free cashflows, which in that case, I think just off the top of my head today, it trades at 24
Starting point is 00:14:17 times excluding stock-based comp. So roughly a 4% free cashflow yield on a trailing basis. and then if you want to do it i think my new preferred way of valuing uber is either just the basic four pe um because there is actually like a trailing tax deferral thing that also happened which throws off that number so we can't use that either um and then you could either do it like that or you could use ebt earnings before taxes on a trailing basis so essentially take it as a proxy of you know price to earnings it trades at like about 30 times trailing earnings which for a business that is growing revenues at 18%, a little bit margin expansion, a little bit buybacks, you're looking at comfortably north of 20% earnings per share growth, essentially for 30
Starting point is 00:15:04 times earnings. And I know maybe some people in the audience don't love to hear that. Immediately, they hear 30 times earnings and equate that to being an expensive multiple. For a growing business, in my opinion, wide moat business like this, I think that's totally fair. If I can quickly add, by the way ryan to your point about um raising outside capital that's an interesting point you bring up and a new development for us as well is google has bigger battles to fight particularly with cloud um they are dumping what a hundred billion dollars of capex there so uh sure there might be like a runway of you know high returns on investment for this new av business um but i think the bigger tam and the bigger long-term roi for them would be to uh fight and be competitive
Starting point is 00:15:45 for the cloud business okay all right i think we've got before we go on ryan let me share go ahead let me talk about the yeah the chart i'm sharing here for the audio listeners and it was a little bit surprising compared to what i thought beforehand pause brett no one no one can see your screen i don't think i i can't see oh really so um yeah it's not showing anything for me uh maybe try to reshare and i don't know it was the operating margin chart everyone's gonna have it was the long term last whole month operating margin chart of let's say it was negative like 50 five years ago but now it's 10 i was actually shocked at how low that was because of the business this mature and given their unit economics i would have thought they would be at
Starting point is 00:16:39 like 20 30 by now and it seems like that is doable over the long term especially because that revenue and again correct me if i'm wrong you know the business better than me is post like that's their take rate not their gpv okay when i sell my business i want the best tax and investment advice i want to help my kids and i want to give back to the community oh then it's the vacation of a lifetime i wonder if my head of office has a forever setting an ig private wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business your family and your dreams get financial advice that puts you at the center find your advisor at igprivatewealth.com yeah that's that's that's exactly right um did you guys have more questions about kind of how
Starting point is 00:17:30 they're going to fend off avs because uh you know i have a whole bunch of other stuff uh we can talk about here as well but uh it's up to you guys if you want to keep going we have a question on coupon and a lot of people wanted to talk about the thing i had like 10 people ask about this especially since the stock is down 30 in the last month or so and it seems like it's falling every day. Sandeep says in the chat, why do you find Coupang compelling? How do you value it? Because I am struggling to see it. I think that's a good lead into really why Coupang is in free fall. Let me just kind of go through the summary here. Coupang stock hit a nearly high in mid-September. It's down 33% from that high since. I think we're at about $23 a share. What happened here is they
Starting point is 00:18:13 had a major data breach from a Chinese national working at the business. And that's important because politically in South Korea, given the relationship with North Korea and China, having that specifically happen to one of their national champions is turning into a bit of a political scandal. And it exposed the personal information of virtually every citizen in South Korea. And what's making matters worse is that the founder, Bom Su Kim, is apparently not choosing to attend hearings that the government wants him to go to. And I guess people are not happy about that. You can kind of see how that looks a bit smug. Not sure exactly what's happening in that situation. We're looking at a foreign country here that I've never been to. But from the news
Starting point is 00:18:58 stories, that doesn't smell great. They may get fined about $500 million or so, give or take, depending on what the government's decided here. And yeah, that's a big chunk of change for this business, but long-term, I really don't think that's going to affect the terminal value. There's a lot of news articles out there about people being, quote unquote, upset at Coupang in South Korea. And that can drive a lot of fear. That can, I think, drive people away from the stock. And there's even an article in the Wall Street Journal this week covering them. They usually never, really none of the financial news covers them at all. But at the end of the article, And what kind of caught my eye was that there was, I hope I'm saying her name right, Zhang Jihe, 34.
Starting point is 00:19:43 She says that, and she has a one-year-old child, she's finding it difficult to make a break with Coupang despite disappointment after the data leak. At home with a one-year-old child, she said that finding time to go out shopping is difficult and that she buys nearly everything on Coupang. It's just too convenient and there isn't a better alternative. of i i think that sums up my opinion yeah do you want a data lake in your business no do you want it to be in one of your geopolitical rivals to create all political scandal no do you want to get fined 500 million dollars no but at the end of the day coupons mode i think is still very very wide has the potential to widen their trading at you know some people sigh and roll their eyes at this sort of multiple use but they trade at 3.8 times trailing gross profit when
Starting point is 00:20:30 gross profits growing at, I think, close to 20% to 25% year over year, should be able to grow at that rate for a very long time here. And they're showing pretty good signs of operating leverage within their core business. They have a clean balance sheet, the free cash flow positive. They have a lot of opportunities to reinvest into new kind of adjacent commerce categories within Korea and reinvesting in Taiwan. I feel like it's very cheap here. I nibbled a bit on the stock this week maybe even a bit more than a nibble maybe a full bite of adding to the position and that about sums it up i think yeah it feels like a buying opportunity here's a question for you will bitcoin's price be above 105 000 by the end of 2025 ibkr forecast trader yes was
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Starting point is 00:22:04 December 31st, 2025. I had the same thoughts. Obviously, a data breach isn't great and there will be probably more than a slap on the wrist. There'll be true impact to the cash in their balance sheet i think some people estimated a trillion won which they can stomach that like they have enough cash in the balance sheet to stomach that but the at the end of the day this is a fulfillment business so they do like if amazon gave away my email i'd be upset but it's five days till christmas and i can't get packages in time anywhere else so i'm still gonna go to Amazon. So like, I think at the end of the day, even after the data breach, most of the customers are going to say, where do I get the most value? They still get the most value from coupon. And
Starting point is 00:23:01 you saw that with the excerpt you pulled from the Wall Street Journal. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this is a more sensitive pain point for Korean consumers. But my guess is that the service, the best service in a year two years will still win out like people don't stop using instagram because of the enormous data breach five years ago it's the best service ends up winning out so i i think can i yeah can i just put it yeah i didn't even i didn't even know there's a data breach for instagram but yeah in in the long term like realistically if the you know the value that the business is providing to its customers is there you know it's 24-hour news cycle i think eventually people just kind of forget about it um at least that's what i'd like to believe but
Starting point is 00:23:49 um yeah this is more your guys's domain anyways yeah i agree uh feels like and yet it's tough a little tougher because we don't have boots on the ground in south korea i actually asked a bunch of people on twitter hey anyone living there shoot me a dm i kind of want to discuss see what the see what people are saying but generally especially when like social media google all that stuff their business model is data breach like they have all your information of korea if this is the first time it takes the people in korea to understand that this sort of information is not a private well maybe that you know maybe that's the case but i don't think it's going to change their shopping habits typically same with like you know advertising scandals except for that
Starting point is 00:24:34 bud light one any sort of scandal around data breaches any sort of scandal around like political like left or right hatred on some sort of brand. Typically, it is way, way, way overblown in the news and can temporarily impact a stock price when long-term, as Aria mentioned, six, 12 months from now, is that what we're going to be talking about? I don't think so.
Starting point is 00:25:01 And it's tough because Coupang itself isn't very public with any press releases. If they were an American company, maybe they would be doing videos on social media. Maybe they're doing a bunch of press releases, but right now, at least on their IR page, they've been completely silent. So that probably doesn't help from an investor perspective because no one likes uncertainty. But I kind of think you have to go, all right, this is a founder that's had an incredible track record. He's sticking around.
Starting point is 00:25:31 Yeah, they had to get rid of the CEO as a sacrificial lamb of the e-commerce business in Korea. And second, you have an emerging competitive advantage here that's probably already pretty wide. So you have a great founder-led company, reasonable price, really wide moat business. Feels like a good time to buy. Is it going to work out? I don't know, but I think the risk-reward is solid at these prices. I'm still in a question here from the chat. I'll repeat it here. Brett, what do you think operating margins can be like in steady state, normalized, if we want to call it that, because they're obviously reinvesting a lot into CapEx at the moment. Long term, what do you think operating margins can look like for Coupon? Okay, let's give some context here because, yes, if you look at the blank EBIT multiple, you look at the blank PE ratio, it doesn't look that cheap. But I will say, and it's not the worst metric, but you got to maybe take it down as to true
Starting point is 00:26:31 earnings when they claim adjusted EBITDA margin on their core commerce business of 9% already in South Korea. Now, the consolidated number is much lower because of the reinvestment in Taiwan, other initiatives like Coupang Eats, what have you. But they already say 9%. They say the goal long-term is 10 plus percent. I think if you knock that down to maybe a true free cashflow margin or a true operating margin, you could probably knock that down a little bit. So I think if they say 10 plus, and I think for adjusted EBITDA, they can get higher. I think 10% operating margin is well within reach. If we look at the numbers and maybe one of you can pull up the market cap here, but I think it's about $40 billion. And correct me if that's wrong. The EV is going to be about five,
Starting point is 00:27:15 maybe $4 billion lower than that, so say $35 billion. The revenue within a year or two should get to $40 billion. So if you have 10% margin on $40 billion, that's $4 billion in earnings. The EV is $35 billion. I mean, you get down to 10 times earnings. If they wanted to quite quickly here they're they're not going to show it for a while but i think the value is there and it can continue to compound i i hate to even mention it but people talk about the demographic bust in korea look yeah that's a concern 20 years from now but their population is projected to be down 10 20 over the next 30 years i i'm not really i'm concerned about the next three right now yeah and look they could have a massive business in taiwan by that point but by the time that
Starting point is 00:28:17 really starts to matter not to mention the wallet share they're increasing the wallet share from within their korean customers and it's more than offsetting for the population decline sharing the ev to gross profit here yes your market cap figure was about right roughly 40 billion dollars enterprise value to gross profit is at 3.87 close to its lowest ever 3.6 is its lowest ever it i like coupon here i i took a bite as well to steal uh what's his name's quote as for me i like the stock we do have a lot more questions in the chat though so maybe we jump to some of these do we want to talk netflix or should we get to any of the news pieces from this week i guess netflix is kind of a news piece but yeah it is it is all right well let's read the question
Starting point is 00:29:09 thoughts on entertaining a netflix position assuming the next year will be rocky with the acquisition but they could make the company more interesting i also mention that they are making a large push well they're down some sort of fifa soccer game which we'll see how that goes those those tend to be underwhelming uh to put it mildly but something that is a little bit of a bigger move and kind of a new content license strategies they're going after a lot of sports entertainment comedy news podcast in mainly the united states they're licensing existing podcasts some that are actually owned by Spotify, pulling them, I think, for at least some of it, off of YouTube and putting the video podcast exclusively on Netflix. Maybe we're thinking this is a bigger
Starting point is 00:30:04 deal because we are a podcast. And I'll say, Netflix, if you want to add another one to the mix, we got some Zoom video calls that we can put up on the big screen. Feels like a weird licensing strategy especially when the fact that it's just people talking i'm curious your guys thoughts here and if it kind of from my one thought was that it shows the power that youtube has on netflix is maybe not scrambling but a little bit worried that they're losing kind of the quote-unquote talk show to youtube uh if i can chime in here um i'm cautiously optimistic on this but i feel like you have bigger fish to fry as netflix i mean so for example you just did the warner brothers deal but also they've repeatedly talked about and this is only something i recently
Starting point is 00:30:50 found out they've repeatedly talked about wanting to getting into gaming and so there's a stat out there where it says um the entire music industry the entire film industry is half the size of the entire gaming industry the music and the film industry are half the size of the entire gaming So the gaming industry is massive. And there is a gaming tab inside of Netflix. And you could imagine, if the Warner Brothers deal particularly goes through, I believe they actually own a gaming studio inside of that, which has a couple hit games. I think Injustice is one of them and something like that. You can imagine with the financial power of somebody with the financial backing of a Netflix, all of a sudden, not only are they making, you know, spinoff shows, like Game of Thrones and Superman and this and that and whatever, you can also start making very good games, right? Like you can start making AAA games and this and that and whatever, using the distribution of Netflix, maybe you start to kind of advertise it to a certain extent. I feel like that could maybe be a better point of opportunity for them in the future. And it's something that they've talked about repeatedly. It kind of seems random to me that now all of a sudden, they're deciding, we're going to start tracking up podcasts on here and whatnot. knots i feel like that battle is uh largely decided between you know like spotify and um and youtube over the past give or take four or five years whatever the case is maybe i'm wrong but um i don't know i think you have bigger fish to fry having had an off again on again said that
Starting point is 00:32:21 backwards but on again off again relationship with video game companies for the last five years i would be discouraged if netflix really started plowing money into video game development it is a difficult industry and it doesn't really press their advantage like when you think about what is netflix's advantage it's distribution in video content and primarily good shows and movies like high quality productions this move to podcasting feels desperate to me it feels like they're chasing youtube and going it feels like they're seeing all the same charts everyone else's about youtube's increasing streaming time or market share on u.s streaming tv and thinking we need to catch up and in order to do that we have to
Starting point is 00:33:17 have podcasts, but they can still win. They can still have a great business without going after the YouTube strategy. And the other thing I'll say here is Spotify did this. Spotify already tried this out for you. They went in, they paid $200 million to Joe Rogan and they gained a little bit of share in podcasting, but I'd still argue that that worked. Okay. When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my head of office has a forever setting.
Starting point is 00:33:58 An IG Private Wealth Advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivateWealth.com. Yeah, but we still get most of our listens on Apple Music or Apple Podcasts. I know that's a small sample size, but they kind of curtailed a lot of those investments. I got a feeling they got more data than we do, and for them to have slowed their exclusive licensing, that tells me that it wasn't maybe working out the way they thought. the i think the beauty of youtube is that it's open and any podcast can win we're doing this on youtube right now it draws people to it i don't love the like taking shows exclusively to netflix
Starting point is 00:34:54 and if if you are a show obviously they're paying you a a wonderful check i assume to go exclusive but unless you're like a joe rogan i would be a little worried that you're going to have a huge drop in listenership yeah you're probably right and yeah spotify put a lot of their video podcasts quote unquote back up on youtube if we look at i'll just pull if anyone's curious our data data over the last 30 days 48 apple podcast 33 spotify so slight bump to apple podcast but still i mean as someone who as a platform that has not necessarily tried that hard i would say compared to spotify youtube or what have you or the last decade that's still great and then the rest you know overcast eight percent other nine percent plus some plus a few
Starting point is 00:35:50 others there that is probably proving point correct here ryan i don't know unless it's a giant show who's going to tune into netflix to pop on a podcast it feels strange to me it feels like a weird strategy i i don't understand it at all we'll see what happens it's their their smart company yeah it does i don't get it i honestly don't get it i now to go back to the initial question would i entertain a position in netflix i think i would and i mean we talked all about we're talking about the licensing strategy with podcasts we're talking about gaming and maybe we should mention that they're spending 82 billion dollars on warner bros and becoming netflix 2.0 in the process i i have kind of come around to being somewhat optimistic about this acquisition
Starting point is 00:36:50 if i were a netflix shareholder if this deal goes through at the quoted price if they don't have to raise their bid which it seems like it probably will i brett's given us the maybe if it goes yeah i i would not be too upset and part of that is because the stock's already sold off in reaction to this but i remember going through it and thinking like what they needed to get to where they are today is maybe not what the business needs now like they had a global strategy build a bunch of content license a bunch of content create your own content that fits specific niches all around the globe maybe it's lower cost productions than some of the Warner Bros or the big studios, but they gained massive scale, constantly had
Starting point is 00:37:48 something to offer on a regular basis that kept people from churning. Now I don't think they necessarily need that as much. Now they can go out and they can go buy big catalogs and it's going to be way more successful on Netflix than it was on any other platform. You saw it with Sex and the city which i think like had a massive boost in viewership when it came onto netflix they could probably do that with hbo's back or warner brothers back catalog they could just release one one new show from their catalog each month for the next five years and probably retain a whole bunch of customers in that process and attract new ones it's and obviously they're going to continue to invest in it and they're getting some other assets like the production
Starting point is 00:38:37 studios but i i kind of like it and i didn't think i would say i like an 80 billion dollar acquisition for a company of this size but i kind of do it compared to the last 10 years they're at more of an uncertain time already mentioned the gaming you have licensing podcasts you have licensing video games you have licensing sports you have live events you have this acquisition potentially here. Yeah, that does add a lot of uncertainty versus, all right, we're just going to expand around the globe, do some of our own content and kind of just reinvest in that for a long time and just be a market share taker. I agree, though, Ryan, it's probably you got to trust this culture. They have just crushed the competition for the last 15 years.
Starting point is 00:39:27 But I look at even with this stock drawdown, EBIT is 32. Is that going to get me going like at a market cap of 400 billion dollars that's such a large business is is that really where your multi-baggers are going to be from maybe it'll be a good performer the long term but yeah doesn't doesn't doesn't get me going so if i can very quickly uh rebuttal on that um you can run the math a variety of different ways but you know we know that they said that they're going to keep the hbo brand independent and then if you kind of accept that i you know some people may argue, okay, there's too high of a cross-sell number to throw around, but there's roughly 200 million, quote-unquote, in theory, Netflix subscribers that are certainly not HBO subscribers,
Starting point is 00:40:13 right? If they can convert, say, 25% of that, and I'm assuming it's at a reduced price, something like that, all of a sudden, including the synergies, which I know the two of you are not too sold on, but anyways, including the synergies and including the new cross-selling ability, just on day one, you back into a number where it's somewhere between $8 to $10 billion of instant free cashflow boost to the business if this acquisition goes through. Are you talking if HBO customers subscribe to Netflix? So if they buy HBO, so HBO has 100 million subs, Netflix has 300. Let's say there's quote-unquote the 200 million tam of cross-selling ability um of those we say only 25 of them
Starting point is 00:40:58 subscribe okay to to the new hbo discounted tier following so far i'm i'm don't know if i'm entirely following so like netflix offering this within their subscription so i would assume well we don't know for certain but i would assume they literally just pull a disney plus and when disney bought Hulu, where it's like either packaged or there's a discount to get HBO. Oh, bundle up. One, either or both. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:41:25 Yeah. So if you're an existing Netflix sub, you get like a 30 to 50% call it discount on HBO. And so if they're able to do that, and we say 25% of Netflix subs subscribe to HBO within like, say the first year, that's roughly $8 to $10 billion for cashflow boost on year one without even dumping any money into new content, whatever. So sure, on the surface, it looks like, oh, $80 billion acquisition. They're doing only $3 billion of free cash flow. That seems expensive. Even if you factor in the synergies, whatever, the reality is the distribution potential, if they're able to cross sell, is massive here. You might be buying this at like eight times cash flow, essentially. Fair point. Fair point. All right. But you know what? Discussing all this, what it makes me realize is that the whole this acquisition is anti-competitive claim makes zero sense because it seems like it's – I can't think of a more competitive industry.
Starting point is 00:42:23 Grocery. But yeah, there are some. But it's super competitive. It's more competitive than grocery. Grocery is like four players. Yeah. Okay. Maybe apparel, whatever you want to pick. There are probably some more competitive industries, but I mean, everyone is just trying to find a way to compete with YouTube. It feels like, and you see them spending all this money to stay competitive and doing all these licensing deals to try to stay competitive. I think this will pass with any regulatory concerns with flying colors. my portfolio, transactions, and returns. I cover under the radar emerging moat companies with prior research reports on Oscar Health, Kraken Robotics, The Real Brokerage, and much more. Emails will be sent out on a weekly basis. Explore the service today and find your next great stock by going to emergingmoats.com. The link will be in the show notes. All right, folks, before we move on,
Starting point is 00:43:45 we need to tell you where we get our data. Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is the complete stock research platform for fundamental investors. I use the platform pretty much every single day. You'll see the charts in our podcast. You'll see it in our newsletter. This is our one-stop shop for stock research. They've got up to 20 years of financial data on all companies globally, including the largest company-specific segment and KPI data set on the internet. That includes metrics like Duolingo's daily active users, Oracle's backlog, Rocket Lab's revenue per launch, and literally millions of more data points. They've also got earnings call transcripts,
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Starting point is 00:44:42 Again, that's fiscal.ai slash chitchat. The link will be in our show notes. you can add on at-home entertainment which is social instagram stuff like that tiktok as well as video games which i would say match up pretty well for what are you going to choose to do in your leisure time all right another topic here i'll let one of you take the floor ryan made some notes and ari has been talking about this a lot lately snap they've made some developments i will say i'm someone that feels a bit like a geezer talking about snap but i never i never really had it uh as a service i don't understand why people are saying this is such
Starting point is 00:45:22 a lucrative opportunity but aria snap it's been a hated stock uh for a long time now so tell us why you think things might be changing what's this new product here and you know kind of what you like potentially the opportunity yeah absolutely so i mean um let's just start out by saying this has been a awful business for the entire existence of it on the public markets it has done nothing but destroy shareholder capital. Management is terrible. SBC is through the roof, right? So let's just establish that. I'm not pitching this as like, oh, this is some misunderstood, perhaps a little bit misunderstood in terms of future prospects. Yeah, I think maybe a decent place to start, because I would assume most listeners are kind
Starting point is 00:46:02 of 25 plus, whatever the case is, you've definitely, even if you had Snap previously, you've kind of aged out of the product. I'm starting to age out of the product and I'm only 20. And essentially the kind of quote unquote thesis with maybe they kind of turn on the monetization lever is that they're starting to basically sell you iCloud. So part of Snap on top of being able to send pictures to other people and whatnot, you can save the pictures or videos and whatever into your memories. And it's essentially exactly what it sounds like. Like it's literally like a form of cloud storage for your videos. And so most users, I would assume um have you know accumulated more than five gigabytes of worth of videos and pictures
Starting point is 00:46:44 personally i've accumulated 30 gigabytes in i don't know five years ish give or take of of uh using the app and essentially it's it's literally your camera roll so uh the the kind of uh ultimatum that they've given you now is okay you have 12 months to decide either you either these videos get permanently deleted which again this is like memories and and whatnot of you know videos uh whatever. It's literally like your camera roll. Either you lose your camera roll or you pay us $2 a month. And that doesn't seem like too big of a hurdle. I would imagine, again, people already pay for iCloud. I can see, and I kind of anecdotally talked to, you know, within my circle of friends, roughly 10, 15 different people. And some of them have already subscribed. They also
Starting point is 00:47:28 have like a snap premium, which I'm not sure exactly what it gives you, but I think it's like, no ads, custom wallpapers. Maybe you could pin people. There's a couple of cool, I guess, ish, neat little features like that, custom Bitmojis or whatever. So one of my friends in particular was like, oh, well, yeah, if I'm going to pay $2 for this, I might as well pay $5 for Snap Premium and get all those other benefits as well because the iCloud thing, there's no restriction on how much storage you have with Snap Premium. So the thesis essentially relies on this ultimatum roughly 12 months down the line where snap today has 500 million daily active users i would assume a large majority of those people maybe 70 80 plus of that cohort of
Starting point is 00:48:13 people they have more than five gigabytes of data stored in their snap camera roll they either need to go through and manually export all of that out or pay two dollars a month essentially as a another form of icloud and so if you run the numbers on that even if we say 10 only 10 of daily actives subscribe to this that instantly flips them into profitability if you get 20 they are all of a sudden like 10 uh operating margin positive and then obviously scales from there so i'm gonna try to be provide some pushback here and the i'm pretty sure they said in a press release that the vast minority of their daily active users are above five gigs so they're saying that like not that many of their users it could just be 30 maybe uh have above
Starting point is 00:49:07 five gigs but it seems like it would be about like i feel like anyone that's been there for a few years is has a good amount of videos and content stored on there the thing with like the icloud analogy is that i know i'm going to be generating more stuff that needs to be stored so i'm willing to subscribe to icloud to continue to you know add my storage with people it feels like right now snapchat snapchat i still call it snapchat is trying to monetize nostalgia they're trying to monetize i guess at a minimum at least they're not hemorrhaging money storing these for for old users but i'm picturing the people my age that have maybe some old videos of them in college doing stupid stuff stored on their snap accounts it seems more likely that they'll go through rip
Starting point is 00:50:02 through export them unless they're still active users so i i mean i don't think it could hurt them this this seems kind of like a no-brainer but i don't know if i see this being like the second you know the biggest revenue driver for the business i just maybe it's just the fact that everything evan spiegel does i seem to be pretty skeptical of but i'm wary that this is going to be a big driver yeah i agree it's not perfect yeah i mean it's it's definitely not perfect like the thesis does rely a lot that's why i don't have a position i don't have any plans of opening a position um i'm just saying like the opportunity is there i had some anecdotes that kind of lined up with it um we'll kind of see and as you mentioned it doesn't hurt them so it's
Starting point is 00:50:52 either these people, they're given the ultimatum, they either do subscribe to it or they export all that data off. And in that case, that would actually help Snap. They do have pretty low gross margins for a social media business. They only have 50% gross margins. I would assume if they offload a lot of those videos en masse across roughly a billion people, whatever the case is, maybe that could help the gross margin. So there's some cost savings involved. in general, we should be able to see maybe they come closer to a profitability inflection, something of that sort. Okay. When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids and I want to give back to the community. Then it's the vacation of
Starting point is 00:51:37 a lifetime. I wonder if my head of office has a forever setting. An IG private wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivateWealth.com. I don't know. The one thing I will give to Evan Spiegel and maybe just the Snap team in general, I don't know if I've ever seen a management team care so little about investor pressure or pressure from the investment community to do something. They seem to just not care one bit that they have had 10 years of operating losses as a public company and have one of the most absurdly high operating expense lines for a business that probably doesn't need it dual class
Starting point is 00:52:30 dual class share structures upside and downside to those if you don't trust that founder yeah one of our episodes i think it was the money.com episode we talked about how technical founders and And just big shareholder founders, usually, eventually, as a public company CEO, there comes a time when they're like, all right, I kind of hate this, and I'm just going to step into a technical role. Or they evolve, the company gets profitable, and they just continue to enjoy the ride, like a Mark Zuckerberg or a Bezos or whatever. Spiegel just doesn't care. He just rides it out. I mean, he just – investor pressure, stock going absolutely nowhere, employees probably all mad that their RSEs are underwater.
Starting point is 00:53:23 He doesn't care. It'll be interesting to follow the story nonetheless. I want to talk – Ryan, I know you got Lou Lemon here. I'll tease that. I do want to talk Turning Point Brands because I've had a listener. Thank you, George, in the Substack chat that has asked me approximately 10 times to discuss this one. so I want to give a little time to it. He's wanted to talk about it.
Starting point is 00:53:45 He has an interesting pitch. I'm going to quote him directly from the Substack chat. Anyone, for anyone, the link is in the show notes, Emerging Notes newsletter. It's where you can discuss a lot just in kind of our free forum there. You can, I usually ask questions. What should we talk about this week? Free to join.
Starting point is 00:54:01 Free to join. Free to join the chat there. It's fun. We have a lot of comments. It's growing and a lot of interesting conversations. Here's the quote from George. TPB is nearshoring its production, which is all currently in India. They currently spend about $1.30 per can to produce nicotine pouches.
Starting point is 00:54:19 When they nearshore, that will be about $0.60 per can. It will exit 2025 with 55 million cans per year runway. This is nicotine pouches. Also, one of the biggest complaints among ALP users is that it is produced in India because they are a big right-wing brand. That will not be the case by the end of next year. Also, among nicotine pouch players, they have the most exposure to the U.S. market. for pm phil morris international nicotine pouches are six percent of sales british american tobacco
Starting point is 00:54:45 and ultra group under two percent tpb turning point brands nicotine pound sales are 30 percent and growing much faster than the industry the nicotine pouch market is the fastest growing consumer product in history and tpb is the most levered way to play it stocks up 400 in the last three years looks like we missed this one um we should have talked about this when he first recommended it in the chat well he's been recommended it 10 times in the last two weeks so urgent he still thinks there's a 10x from here i mean they have 40 percent gross profit growth coming from these cost savings they've had i think 600 modern oil sales growth they are raising money through an atm uh common stock offering at these prices so maybe wait for a pullback i'm just
Starting point is 00:55:31 thinking out loud here. The EV, when I wrote this down, about $2 billion adjusted EBITDA guide of over $100 million. So the growth runway is supposedly longer than this, but you're about 20 times adjusted earnings. And the big questions I'd have is, can they keep taking market share? Why will their oral pouches have brand durability? Is the brand damaged to the conservatives who don't like the outsourced manufacturing because it's supposed to be a quote-unquote america first brand is that going to ruin their brand reputation it looks like not so much right now but we'll see it feels interesting i mean if they can keep growing pouches and improve those gross margins look it feels cheap here yeah i kind of like the pitch i like the nicotine pouch business it feels
Starting point is 00:56:24 like the cigarette business a century ago where maybe not a century ago but before all the yeah i guess and you don't have to be the winner to have a good business it's a sticky product cost five cents to make sell it for a dollar you know you've got wonderful margins and there's literally an addiction to and usually like an addiction to a specific product like brand so i would probably have some of the same concerns as you brett around the competitive landscape but if they're continuing to grow despite what seems like an already hyper competitive space more so than i think when people look at nicotine pouches they sometimes comp it to like vapes and we saw what happened to like jewel when illicit vaping became so mainstream
Starting point is 00:57:24 i don't think it's going to be like that i think there's a lot more brand stickiness with consumers so i i'd be interested in taking a deeper look at this thank you george for recommending it to us do you know where they're near showing production too is this a chance to uh is this a money thing no i have no idea i think it's somewhere in the united states i am guessing i don't know it's interesting that they're able to make it cheaper here i think it's because of tariffs no all right yeah it makes sense yeah and the fact that you probably don't have them you have transportation costs as well aria any thoughts on this if not we're going to be moving to lululemon nothing in particular but i am generally bullish on the whole nicotine pouch
Starting point is 00:58:15 uh wave i think uh definitely has a lot of room to grow i did miss out on philip morris i know you guys definitely enjoyed some nice gains on that but uh it was all my hope and i didn't catch it still time yeah let's hope let's let's uh pray for a pullback huh i say this now there's a tin of zins on my desk right now as well so i'm glad the younger generation portfolio yeah Yeah, I'm glad the younger generation is still on the nicotine pouches. Yeah, $157 for Philip Morris International. Who knows? Who knows?
Starting point is 00:58:47 I hope we get a little pullback where the earnings kind of grow into this. But, Ryan, we're running up on time. I do want to hit some fun bubble watches after this. Lululemon earnings, my psychological long that I've made no money on, is now working. And we may have some forceful pressure in here with Elliott Management bringing in a new executive yeah so lululemon reported earnings last week actually probably should have talked about them then but we did not they the numbers were okay the the headline numbers looked better because of a massive acceleration in china so china revenue grew 40 43 i think year over year
Starting point is 00:59:32 Does that count? Those count, right? Those sales count? I don't know. Do they? I think they do. But those revenues get a discount in the eyes of the investment community here. Right? I mean, or else we'd be valuing Chinese, or else Alibaba would be traded closer to the other hyperscalers. Well, okay, that's fair. That's a longer discussion, but continue. It – anyway, yes. If you're optimistic and – I think there's nothing bad about them growing in China. Like it's better than them just – if they just had the North American business, this would have been a much worse earnings report because comp sales in the US declined at their lowest rate in a decade excluding COVID. it so comp sales are really weak in the united states right now the china business also had like
Starting point is 01:00:34 some temporary um like a holiday that was not in last year's quarter so it made it look a little better so china accounts for 20 of the business now what i keep thinking is like i worry about lululemon in the u.s but if they're seeing a ton of growth abroad that's great however what was that company that just got erased from japan or from china the h&m h&m right don't say anything you don't say anything bad about the chinese communist party ryan or you will get erased from the internet yeah that i mean that is a concern and i think that's why investors are somewhat skeptical about the china business for lululemon is just that they it's more at risk and potentially less durable but the the results were fine i should say that the news that came
Starting point is 01:01:29 out i think yesterday was that elliot management the massive fund started by paul singer i don't know if he's still involved or not interesting guy though they are taking or they have taken a $1 billion stake in Lululemon, and they are working with former Ralph Lauren CFO and COO Jay Nielsen as a potential candidate for the new CEO of Lululemon. Does Elliot's involvement make you any more interested in this business? Because I'll just go ahead and give my opinion real quick i don't think i love i love active i love activist investors usually especially in like a software business because usually they just have to do the hard stuff that management is unwilling to do in an apparel business i worry that paul singer and his team might not know
Starting point is 01:02:28 exactly what needs to be done in order to drive growth for for a consumer facing brand could be right the you just have to get the right creative team involved and that's kind of describing how it's not a wide mode business maybe this Ralph Loren person is the right person
Starting point is 01:02:50 we'll see I think there's just some uncertainty here but given how the stocks reacted to these terrible numbers excluding China I feel like that it shows that there was such poor expectations for that stock and And I should have bought, at least I bought Crocs at the same time
Starting point is 01:03:09 as my kind of apparel play that turned into a real long, and it's done okay at kind of the same little bottom trough there. But Lululemon, yeah, I just felt good about it. Seven times earnings, the numbers were terrible. And I guess the stock's working, and if they turn things around and the numbers actually get somewhat healthy to average, I mean, the stock's going to go up quite a bit from here. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:40 I mean, it's cheap. On trailing numbers, it is cheap. How much of – I guess Crocs kind of has a similar exposure to China, right? Somewhat. It's growing quickly in China. It's not growing as quickly. Yeah. Here's similar.
Starting point is 01:03:59 The Christmas list indicator. i got some my family does like christmas lists and send each other what they want kind of thing wow that's unsurprising didn't see much lululemon on there i did however see a whole lot of viore and we have a comment here from tyler ferris clean house and fill up with aloe and viore execs i fair i do think this is i don't know if they're going to be any different than what we've seen throughout history i think they pioneered the athleisure category and now they've got a whole bunch of copycats that are slightly better priced yeah that's fair are you are young people wearing lululemon you have you have better boots on the ground actually this is amazing this quarter zip
Starting point is 01:04:46 is from lululemon uh so this is quite funny uh a bit too expensive uh in my opinion i uh at least in in so i'm from toronto but uh the main sort of hot brand you know particularly more catered towards women is uh aritzia so i believe actually no i think they're in the u.s now but uh i'm not sure you guys have even heard of it ryan looks like yes i'm just heard of the stock yeah heard of the stock yeah so that is kind of like the the hot uh sort of new new-ish brand like they've been around five-ish years whatever the case is um but no i don't know just speaking based off anecdotes i don't think lulu has the same sort of prestige that they once used to have um they make great clothing though tell you that much yeah it feels like it's a stronger brand it's like a rising
Starting point is 01:05:31 brand among men women which is more important is not so much anymore what do we have brett for our bubble watch because i know we're running up on time let's go through this quickly because we had quite a few things. I think Coinbase and Robinhood are... One, Coinbase is adding stock trading, which I think that's admitting defeat. Second, Robinhood, I think, is offering the ability to do prediction markets within your IRA slash retirement accounts. Feels a bit much. We have... I'm just going to roll through a bunch of these. this is pretty much all just today uh trump media stock which i don't really know what they're doing is merging with a fusion energy company which i think makes sense it's like two companies that
Starting point is 01:06:23 aren't actually doing anything they're kind of just shell corporations merging together to do the same thing truth media brett it's true it's true at least there's something fusion is for anyone that doesn't know it it's never worked whatever nasdaq is going to be offering 23 hour trading which i'd actually like to do an extended segment on one time because i think there could be some beneficiaries one interactive brokers robin hood all those companies with training fees second all right i have two more here gold and silver at all-time highs. Price of gold up 68% in the last 12 months. Silver up 126%. Okay. When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids and I want to give back
Starting point is 01:07:12 to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my head of office has a forever setting. An IG private wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business your family and your dreams get financial advice that puts you at the center find your advisor at idprivatewealth.com it's a fun time in markets i would not have predicted that i know sometimes we make fun of them and call them the pet rocks but hey nice little run this year it's a good call for any investor and last one is the outcome of the Fermi IPO. It's one that I may have even talked about on the show. It's one I saw. I thought this is a completely ridiculous company. It's really a lesson in red flags. The stock IPO'd
Starting point is 01:08:00 on October 1st. It's down 72%, still has a market cap of $5.4 billion. I'm going to close things out for the listeners to read out what they do. Fermi is pioneering the development of next generation private electric grids to deliver highly redundant power at gigawatt scale required to create next generation artificial intelligence. It combines cutting edge technology with a deep bench of proven world-class multidisciplinary leaders to create the world's largest 11 gigawatt next-gen private grid anyone to guess if they're doing any of that today so what they're just a utility private utility yeah but they're working with ex-us energy secretary rick perry ryan they don't have any revenue it's just all theoretical oh they don't have any i was
Starting point is 01:08:44 assuming it was just like uh trying to put a spin on like a normal utility uh just riding the ai bubble it's a new private utility for data centers for ai they also have similar similar full disclosure i am short oklo or oklo former they also were working with former co-managing partner of quantum energy so they got some quantum in there too which is lovely these words mean nothing to me we are like two years into this absurd like okay i don't want to boom maybe bubble it's like it was the same with 2021 in this back graze and how there was like all these horrible companies that got bit up and that's that's what i would describe as the bubble you could have your own opinions on whether or not the ai is boom or bubble but we're two years
Starting point is 01:09:36 into this and every time every single time i read a business description like this i just toss it away instantly like that the words mean nothing to me yeah i mean let me just sum it up the president's media company is fusion merging with a fusion energy company which doesn't do anything 23-hour stock trading on the nasdaq gold and silver at all-time highs coinbase and robin that are allowing you to bet on any aspect of your life 24-7 and all of these potential bubble stocks, legalese, just going public like crazy. I'd say it's – again, I've been saying this for the last three months.
Starting point is 01:10:15 It's time to batten down the hatches. Opportunities may present themselves later, but I do not know if they're presenting themselves today. This is definitely what the founding fathers would have wanted. An active president. Merging with a fusion energy company. It's entertaining. When I saw that, Pablo, in the Wall Street Journal app, I didn't know what to say.
Starting point is 01:10:34 But I was not surprised, I guess. It's fun, though. All right. We're going over time. Arya, since you joined us today, thank you. And tell the listeners, I know you do some videos on YouTube, Twitter, stuff. Tell them if anyone wants to follow you, interact with you, where they can find you. Yeah, absolutely.
Starting point is 01:10:52 Thank you guys for having me on again. Hopefully, we could do this sometime soon. Just Arya Radney on all socials. I'm mainly on YouTube and Twitter. And that is about it. Yeah. What's the YouTube channel called? Just Aria Radnia now.
Starting point is 01:11:07 I simplified it. Oh, all right. I thought it was Investing with Aria. Changed it. Yeah, I changed it. Just the name. I'll put the direct links in the show notes on both YouTube and Spotify slash Apple. And thank you.
Starting point is 01:11:18 We went a little long today. Thank you for Aria for taking the time. I guess I'll take us out of here with the disclosure. We are not financial advisors. Anything we say on the show is not formal advice or recommendation. Ryan, I, or any podcast guests may hold securities discussed in this podcast, may have held them in the past, and may buy, sell, or hold them in the future. Thank you, everyone, for tuning into the live show.
Starting point is 01:11:38 Thank you, everyone, for listening, and we'll see you next week.

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